Analysis of risk factors associated with renal function trajectory over time: a comparison of different statistical approaches

Haemoglobin trajectories in chronic kidney disease and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events

BACKGROUND

The trajectories of haemoglobin in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have been poorly described. In such patients, we aimed to identify typical haemoglobin trajectory profiles and estimate their risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

METHODS

We used 5-year longitudinal data from the CKD-REIN cohort patients with moderate to severe CKD enrolled from 40 nationally representative nephrology clinics in France. A joint latent class model was used to estimate, in different classes of haemoglobin trajectory, the competing risks of (i) MACE + defined as the first event among cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke or hospitalization for acute heart failure, (ii) initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and (iii) non-cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, we gathered 33 874 haemoglobin measurements from 3011 subjects (median, 10 per patient). We identified five distinct haemoglobin trajectory profiles. The predominant profile (n = 1885, 62.6%) showed an overall stable trajectory and low risks of events. The four other profiles had nonlinear declining trajectories: early strong decline (n = 257, 8.5%), late strong decline (n = 75, 2.5%), early moderate decline (n = 356, 11.8%) and late moderate decline (n = 438, 14.6%). The four profiles had different risks of MACE, while the risks of KRT and non-cardiovascular death consistently increased from the haemoglobin decline.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we observed that two-thirds of patients had a stable haemoglobin trajectory and low risks of adverse events. The other third had a nonlinear trajectory declining at different rates, with increased risks of events. Better attention should be paid to dynamic changes of haemoglobin in CKD.

Unraveling the epigenetic code: human kidney DNA methylation and chromatin dynamics in renal disease development

Epigenetic changes may fill a critical gap in our understanding of kidney disease development, as they not only reflect metabolic changes but are also preserved and transmitted during cell division. We conducted a genome-wide cytosine methylation analysis of 399 human kidney samples, along with single-nuclear open chromatin analysis on over 60,000 cells from 14 subjects, including controls, and diabetes and hypertension attributed chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. We identified and validated differentially methylated positions associated with disease states, and discovered that nearly 30% of these alterations were influenced by underlying genetic variations, including variants known to be associated with kidney disease in genome-wide association studies. We also identified regions showing both methylation and open chromatin changes. These changes in methylation and open chromatin significantly associated gene expression changes, most notably those playing role in metabolism and expressed in proximal tubules. Our study further demonstrated that methylation risk scores (MRS) can improve disease state annotation and prediction of kidney disease development. Collectively, our results suggest a causal relationship between epigenetic changes and kidney disease pathogenesis, thereby providing potential pathways for the development of novel risk stratification methods.

Renal outcomes in adults with HBV, HIV and HBV/HIV coinfection after 3 years of antiviral therapy in urban Tanzania

BACKGROUND

An enhanced understanding of renal outcomes in persons with chronic HBV, HIV, and HBV/HIV coinfection is needed to mitigate chronic kidney disease in regions where HBV and HIV are endemic.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in adults with HBV, HIV or HBV/HIV enrolled in a 3 year prospective cohort study of liver outcomes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and initiated on antiviral therapy.

METHODS

We compared eGFR between and within groups over time using mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

Four hundred and ninety-nine participants were included in the analysis (HBV: 164; HIV: 271; HBV/HIV: 64). Mean baseline eGFRs were 106.88, 106.03 and 107.18 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. From baseline to Year 3, mean eGFR declined by 4.3 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI -9.3 to 0.7) and 3.7 (-7.8 to 0.5) in participants with HBV and HIV, respectively, and increased by 5.1 (-4.7 to 14.9) in those with HBV/HIV. In multivariable models, participants with HBV had lower eGFRs compared with those with HIV or HBV/HIV and, after adjusting for HBV DNA level and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status, significantly lower eGFRs than those with HBV/HIV at all follow-up visits.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Tanzanian cohort, coinfection with HBV/HIV did not appear to exacerbate renal dysfunction compared with those with either infection alone. Although overall changes in eGFR were small, persons with HBV experienced lower eGFRs throughout follow-up despite their younger age and similar baseline values. Longer-term studies are needed to evaluate continuing changes in eGFR and contributions from infection duration and other comorbidities.

Fibroblast growth factor 23 but not copeptin is independently associated with kidney failure and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease

Background

Copeptin and intact fibroblast growth factor 23 (iFGF23) increase early during chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may be predictive of unfavourable outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate their respective associations with renal and vital outcomes in CKD patients.

Methods

We included CKD patients from the NephroTest cohort with concomitant measurements of plasma copeptin and iFGF23 concentrations and isotopic glomerular filtration rate measurement (mGFR). The primary endpoint was a composite outcome including kidney failure (KF) (dialysis initiation, pre-emptive transplantation or a 57% decrease of mGFR, corresponding to doubling of serum creatinine) or death before KF. Hazard ratios (HRs) of the primary endpoint associated with log-transformed copeptin and iFGF23 concentrations were estimated by Cox models. The slope of mGFR over time was analysed using a linear mixed model.

Results

A total of 329 CKD patients (243 men, mean age 60.3 ± 14.6 years) were included. Among them, 301 with an mGFR >15 ml/min/1.73 m2 were included in survival and mGFR slope analyses. During a median follow-up of 4.61 years (quartile 1-quartile 3: 3.72-6.07), 61 KFs and 32 deaths occurred. Baseline iFGF23 concentrations were associated with the composite outcome after multiple adjustments {HR 2.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.85-3.99]}, whereas copeptin concentrations were not [HR 1.01 (95% CI 0.74-1.39)]. Neither copeptin nor iFGF23 were associated with mGFR slope over time.

Conclusion

Our study shows for the first time in population of CKD patients an independent association between iFGF23 and unfavourable renal and vital outcomes and shows no such association regarding copeptin, encouraging the integration of iFGF23 measurement into the follow-up of CKD.

Chronic Kidney Disease and Accelerated Decline of Renal Function in Older Adults with HIV in Northern Thailand

Kidney disease remains prevalent in people living with HIV even in the antiretroviral treatment era. We determine the frequency of chronic kidney disease (CKD), rate of renal function decline, and associated factors in older adults with HIV (OAHIV) aged ≥50 years in northern Thailand. We used data from the medical records and calculated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation. Of the 269 participants (58% women, 61.8 years median age), 7.1% had CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2). There were 21 OAHIV (7.8%) with >25% decline in eGFR in the past year, 90 (33%) with accelerated (>5 mL/min per 1.73 m2 per year), and 44 (16%) with rapid (>10 mL/min per 1.73 m2 per year) declining eGFR. Female gender was the only factor associated with an accelerated decline in eGFR (odds ratio, 2.307; 95% confidence interval, 1.331-3.998; p = .003). Continuous monitoring of renal function is recommended for OAHIV to guide treatment modification and intervention.

Rates and determinants of fast chronic kidney disease progression distinguished by nutritional status, and the impact of malnutrition on mortality - evidence from a clinical population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Malnutrition is a serious problem that influences morbidity, mortality, functional activity, and quality of life in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, there has not been much research done on how nutritional status appears to affect mortality in non-dialysis CKD patients. This study aimed to recognize the rates and predictors of fast CKD progression distinguished by nutritional status, and also sought to determine the impact of malnutrition on mortality in non-dialysis CKD patients.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study (n = 360) involved non-dialysis CKD patients with index estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between the range of 15-89 ml/min/1.73 m2. Nutritional status was evaluated by using the "Pt-Global web tool/PG-SGA". A loss of eGFR >4 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year was considered to be a sign of fast CKD progression. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to evaluate the cumulative survival, and Cox-proportional hazard models were used to analyze the renal outcomes.

RESULTS

Around 244 (67.8%) of patients have experienced a fast decline in kidney function. In the malnourished group, systolic blood pressure and hyperphosphatemia were observed to have increased hazards for fast CKD progression. The overall incidence of mortality and composite endpoints were found to be 13.9% & 37.6%, respectively. Death rates (11.6%) and composite endpoints (29.8%) were higher in the malnourished (severe & moderate) group. Cox regression hazard model reported 4 times increased hazards for death [HR 4.41 (1.99-9.77) 95% CI; P ≤ 0.005] and 3 times increased hazards for composite endpoints [HR 3.29 (2.10-5.16) 95% CI; P ≤ 0.005] for 'severely malnourished' category in reference to 'normal nutrition' category.

CONCLUSIONS

Fast CKD progression was observed to be more common in malnourished patients. Systolic blood pressure and hyperphosphatemia were recognized as potential predictors of fast CKD progression. Moreover, malnutrition was found to be a significant predictor of mortality among non-dialysis CKD patients. The findings of this study advocate for early nutritional evaluation and timely dietary interventions to halt the progression of CKD.

Ambulatory blood pressure as risk factor for long-term kidney function decline in the general population: a distributional regression approach

The results of randomized controlled trials are unclear about the long-term effect of blood pressure (BP) on kidney function assessed as the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in persons without chronic kidney disease or diabetes. The limited duration of follow-up and use of imprecise methods for assessing BP and GFR are important reasons why this issue has not been settled. Since a long-term randomized trial is unlikely, we investigated the association between 24-h ambulatory BP (ABP) and measured GFR in a cohort study with a median follow-up of 11 years. The Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS) cohort is a representative sample of persons aged 50 to 62 years without baseline cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or kidney disease from the general population of Tromsø in northern Norway. ABP was measured at baseline, and iohexol clearance at baseline and twice during follow-up. The study population comprised 1589 persons with 4127 GFR measurements. Baseline ABP or office BP components were not associated with the GFR change rate in multivariable adjusted conventional regression models. In generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), higher daytime systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial ABP were associated with a slight shift of the central part of the GFR distribution toward lower GFR and with higher probability of GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 during follow-up (p < 0.05). The use of a distributional regression method and precise methods for measuring exposure and outcome were necessary to detect an unfavorable association between BP and GFR in this study of the general population.

Incidence of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury and trajectories of glomerular filtration rate in older adults

BACKGROUND

In older adults, epidemiological data on incidence rates (IR) of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI) are scarce. Also, little is known about trajectories of kidney function before hospitalization with AKI.

METHODS

We used data from biennial face-to-face study visits from the prospective Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) including community-dwelling participants aged 70+ with repeat estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine and cystatin C. Primary outcome was first incident of hospital-acquired AKI assessed through linked insurance claims data. In a nested case-control study, kidney function decline prior to hospitalization with and without AKI was investigated using eGFR trajectories estimated with mixed-effects models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular comorbidities.

RESULTS

Out of 2020 study participants (52.9% women; mean age 80.4 years) without prior AKI, 383 developed a first incident AKI, 1518 were hospitalized without AKI, and 119 were never hospitalized during a median follow-up of 8.8 years. IR per 1000 person years for hospital-acquired AKI was 26.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 24.1-29.6); higher for men than women (33.9 (29.5-38.7) vs. 21.2 (18.1-24.6)). IR (CI) were lowest for persons aged 70-75 (13.1; 10.0-16.8) and highest for ≥ 90 years (54.6; 40.0-72.9). eGFR trajectories declined more steeply in men and women with AKI compared to men and women without AKI years before hospitalization. These differences in eGFR trajectories remained after adjustment for traditional comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

AKI is a frequent in-hospital complication in individuals aged 70 + showing a striking increase of IR with age. eGFR decline was steeper in elderly patients with AKI compared to elderly patients without AKI years prior to hospitalization emphasising the need for long-term kidney function monitoring pre-admission to improve risk stratification.

Validation of eGFR for Detecting Associations Between Serum Protein Biomarkers and Subsequent GFR Decline

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

eGFR from creatinine, cystatin C, or both has been primarily used in search of biomarkers for GFR decline. Whether the relationships between biomarkers and eGFR decline are similar to associations with measured GFR (mGFR) decline has not been investigated. This study revealed that some biomarkers showed statistically significant different associations with eGFR decline compared with mGFR decline, particularly for eGFR from cystatin C. The findings indicate that non-GFR-related factors, such as age, sex, and body mass index, influence the relationship between biomarkers and eGFR decline. Therefore, the results of biomarker studies using eGFR, particularly eGFRcys, should be interpreted with caution and perhaps validated with mGFR.

BACKGROUND

Several serum protein biomarkers have been proposed as risk factors for GFR decline using eGFR from creatinine or cystatin C. We investigated whether eGFR can be used as a surrogate end point for measured GFR (mGFR) when searching for biomarkers associated with GFR decline.

METHODS

In the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey, GFR was measured with plasma iohexol clearance in 1627 individuals without diabetes, kidney, or cardiovascular disease at baseline. After 11 years of follow-up, 1409 participants had one or more follow-up GFR measurements. Using logistic regression and interval-censored Cox regression, we analyzed the association between baseline levels of 12 serum protein biomarkers with the risk of accelerated GFR decline and incident CKD for both mGFR and eGFR.

RESULTS

Several biomarkers exhibited different associations with eGFR decline compared with their association with mGFR decline. More biomarkers showed different associations with eGFRcys decline than with eGFRcre decline. Most of the different associations of eGFR decline versus mGFR decline remained statistically significant after adjustment for age, sex, and body mass index, but several were attenuated and not significant after adjusting for the corresponding baseline mGFR or eGFR.

CONCLUSIONS

In studies of some serum protein biomarkers, eGFR decline may not be an appropriate surrogate outcome for mGFR decline. Although the differences from mGFR decline are attenuated by adjustment for confounding factors in most cases, some persist. Therefore, proposed biomarkers from studies using eGFR should preferably be validated with mGFR.

Costs Associated With Progression of Mildly Reduced Kidney Function Among Medicare Advantage Enrollees

Rationale & Objective

The prevalence of early chronic kidney disease (CKD) in older adults has increased in the past 2 decades, yet CKD disease progression, overall, is variable. It is unclear whether health care costs differ by progression trajectory. The purpose of this study was to estimate the trajectories of CKD progression and examine Medicare Advantage (MA) health care costs of each trajectory over a 3-year period in a large cohort of MA enrollees with mildly reduced kidney function.

Study Design

Cohort study.

Setting & Population

421,187 MA enrollees with stage G2 CKD in 2014-2017.

Outcomes

We identified 5 trajectories of kidney function over time.

Model Perspective & Timeframe

Mean total health care costs for each of the trajectories were described in each of the following 3 years from a payer perspective: 1 year before and 2 years after the index date establishing stage G2 CKD (study entry).

Results

The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at study entry was 75.9 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the median (interquartile range) follow-up period was 2.6 (1.6, 3.7) years. The cohort had a mean age of 72.6 years and had predominantly female participants (57.2%), and White (71.2%). We identified the following 5 distinct trajectories of kidney function: a stable eGFR (22.3%); slow eGFR decline with a mean eGFR at study entry of 78.6 (30.2%); slow eGFR decline with an eGFR at study entry of 70.9 (28.4%); steep eGFR decline (16.3%); and accelerated eGFR decline (2.8%). Mean costs of enrollees with accelerated eGFR decline were double the MA enrollees' mean costs in each of the other 4 trajectories in every year ($27,738 vs $13,498 for a stable eGFR 1 year after study entry).

Limitations

Results may not generalized beyond MA and a lack of albumin values.

Conclusions

The small fraction of MA enrollees with accelerated eGFR decline has disproportionately higher costs than other enrollees with mildly reduced kidney function.

Association of the Urine-to-Plasma Urea Ratio With CKD Progression

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVES

The urine-to-plasma (U/P) ratio of urea is correlated with urine-concentrating capacity and associated with progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. As a proposed biomarker of tubular function, we hypothesized that the U/P urea ratio would also be associated with progression of more common forms of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

3,723 adults in the United States with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20-70 mL/min/1.73 m², enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

EXPOSURE

U/P urea ratio, calculated from 24-hour urine collections and plasma samples at baseline.

OUTCOME

Associations of U/P urea ratio with eGFR slope, initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), and CKD progression, defined as 50% decline in eGFR or incident KRT.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Multivariable linear mixed-effects models tested associations with eGFR slope. Cox proportional hazards models tested associations with dichotomous CKD outcomes.

RESULTS

The median U/P urea ratio was 14.8 (IQR, 9.5-22.2). Compared with participants in the highest U/P urea ratio quintile, those in the lowest quintile had a greater eGFR decline by 1.06 mL/min/1.73 m² per year (P < 0.001) over 7.0 (IQR, 3.0-11.0) years of follow-up observation. Each 1-SD lower natural log-transformed U/P urea ratio was independently associated with CKD progression (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.12-1.33]) and incident KRT (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.10-1.33]). Associations differed by baseline eGFR (P interaction = 0.009). Among those with an eGFR ≥30 mL/min/1.73 m², each 1-SD lower in ln(U/P urea ratio) was independently associated with CKD progression (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.18-1.45]), but this was not significant among those with eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m² (HR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.84-1.20]).

LIMITATIONS

Possibility of residual confounding. Single baseline 24-hour urine collection for U/P urea ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large and diverse cohort of patients with common forms of CKD, U/P urea was independently associated with disease progression and incident kidney failure. Associations were not significant among those with advanced CKD at baseline.

The Impact of Cholecaciferol Supplementation on Bone Mineral Density in Long-Term Kidney Transplant Recipients

Although reduced bone mineral density (BMD) is associated with a higher risk of fractures, morbidity, and mortality in kidney transplant patients (KTRs), there is no consensus on optimal treatment for the alterations of BMD in this population. This study aims at assessing the effect of cholecalciferol supplementation on BMD over a follow-up period of 2 years in a cohort of long-term KTRs. Patients with age ≥ 18 years were included and divided into two subgroups based on treatment with bisphosphonate and/or calcimimetics and/or active vitamin D sterols (KTRs-treated) or never treated with the above medications (KTRs-free). BMD was evaluated at lumbar vertebral bodies (LV) and right femoral neck (FN) with standard DEXA at the beginning and end of the study. According to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, results were expressed as T-score and Z-score. Osteoporosis and osteopenia were defined as T score ≤ −2.5 SD and T score < −1 and >−2.5 SD, respectively. Cholecalciferol was supplemented at a dose of 25,000 IU/week over 12 weeks followed by 1500 IU/day. KTRs-free (n. 69) and KTRs-treated (n. 49) consecutive outpatients entered the study. KTRs-free were younger (p < 0.05), with a lower prevalence of diabetes (p < 0.05) and of osteopenia at FN (46.3 % vs. 61.2 %) compared to KTRs-treated. At the entry none of the study subjects had a sufficient level of cholecalciferol; Z-score and T-score at LV and FN were not different between groups. At the end of the study period, serum cholecalciferol concentration was significantly increased in both groups (p < 0.001); the KTRs-free group presented an improvement in both T-score and Z-score at LV (p < 0.05) as well as a lower prevalence of osteoporotic cases (21.7% vs. 15.9%); in contrast, no changes were recorded in KTR-treated individuals. In conclusion, supplementation with cholecalciferol ameliorated Z-score and T-score at LV in long-term KTRs who had been never treated with active or inactive vitamin D sterols, bisphosphonates, and calcimimetics. Future endeavours are needed to confirm these preliminary findings.

Different roles of protein biomarkers predicting eGFR trajectories in people with chronic kidney disease and diabetes mellitus: a nationwide retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common comorbidity in people with diabetes mellitus, and a key risk factor for further life-threatening conditions such as cardiovascular disease. The early prediction of progression of CKD therefore is an important clinical goal, but remains difficult due to the multifaceted nature of the condition. We validated a set of established protein biomarkers for the prediction of trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in people with moderately advanced chronic kidney disease and diabetes mellitus. Our aim was to discern which biomarkers associate with baseline eGFR or are important for the prediction of the future eGFR trajectory.

METHODS

We used Bayesian linear mixed models with weakly informative and shrinkage priors for clinical predictors (n = 12) and protein biomarkers (n = 19) to model eGFR trajectories in a retrospective cohort study of people with diabetes mellitus (n = 838) from the nationwide German Chronic Kidney Disease study. We used baseline eGFR to update the models' predictions, thereby assessing the importance of the predictors and improving predictive accuracy computed using repeated cross-validation.

RESULTS

The model combining clinical and protein predictors had higher predictive performance than a clinical only model, with an [Formula: see text] of 0.44 (95% credible interval 0.37-0.50) before, and 0.59 (95% credible interval 0.51-0.65) after updating by baseline eGFR, respectively. Only few predictors were sufficient to obtain comparable performance to the main model, with markers such as Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor 1 and Receptor for Advanced Glycation Endproducts being associated with baseline eGFR, while Kidney Injury Molecule 1 and urine albumin-creatinine-ratio were predictive for future eGFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Protein biomarkers only modestly improve predictive accuracy compared to clinical predictors alone. The different protein markers serve different roles for the prediction of longitudinal eGFR trajectories potentially reflecting their role in the disease pathway.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease is associated with an increase in systolic blood pressure over time: linear mixed-effects model analyses

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), a new feature of fatty liver (FL) disease that is defined as FL with overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus or metabolic dysregulation, has been reported to be associated with the development of diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular disease. However, the association between MAFLD and hypertension remains unclear. We investigated the association between MAFLD and systolic blood pressure (SBP) over a 10-year period in 28,990 Japanese subjects who received annual health examinations. After exclusion of subjects without data for SBP and abdominal ultrasonography at baseline, a total of 17,021 subjects (men/women: 10,973/6048; mean age: 49 years) were recruited. Linear mixed-effects model analyses using diagnoses of FL, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or MAFLD and age, sex, SBP, use of anti-hypertensive drugs, levels of uric acid and estimated glomerular filtration rate, family history of hypertension and habits of current smoking and alcohol drinking at baseline as well as the duration of the observation period and the interaction between each covariate and the duration of the observation period showed that the significant association of change in SBP over time with diagnosis of MAFLD (estimate: 0.223 mmHg/year, P < 0.001) was greater than that with diagnoses of FL (estimate: 0.196 mmHg/year, P < 0.001) and NAFLD (estimate: 0.203 mmHg/year, P < 0.001). Furthermore, the rate of increase in SBP over time was higher in subjects with MAFLD than in subjects without FL and subjects with FL who had no MAFLD. In conclusion, MAFLD is significantly associated with an increase in SBP over time. The presence of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is significantly associated with an increase in systolic blood pressure over time.

Clinical trajectories and impact of acute kidney disease after acute kidney injury in the intensive care unit: a 5-year single-centre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients suffering from acute kidney injury(AKI) in the intensive care unit (ICU) can have various renal trajectories and outcomes. Aims were to assess the various clinical trajectories after AKI in the ICU and to determine risk factors for developing chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective 5-year follow-up study in a medical ICU at Bordeaux University Hospital (France). The patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation, catecholamine infusion or both and developed an AKI from September 2013 to May 2015 were included. In the Cox analysis, the violation of the proportional hazard assumption for AKD was handled using appropriate interaction terms with time, resulting in a time-dependent hazard ratio (HR).

RESULTS

A total of 232 patients were enrolled, with an age of 62 ± 16 years and a median follow-up of 52 days (interquartile range 6-1553). On day 7, 109/232 (47%) patients progressed to acute kidney disease (AKD) and 66/232 (28%) recovered. A linear trajectory (AKI, AKD to CKD) was followed by 44/63 (70%) of the CKD patients. The cumulative incidence of CKD was 30% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24-36] at the 5-year follow-up. In a multivariable Cox model, in the 6 months following AKI, the HR for CKD was higher in AKD patients [HR 29.2 (95% CI 8.5-100.7); P < 0.0001). After 6 months, the HR for CKD was 2.2 (95% CI 0.6-7.9; P = 0.21; n = 172 patients).

CONCLUSION

There were several clinical trajectories of kidney disease after ICU-acquired AKI. CKD risk was higher in AKD patients only in the first 6 months. Lack of renal recovery rather than AKD per se was associated with the risk of CKD.

Ipsilateral Aorto-Iliac Calcification is Not Directly Associated With eGFR After Kidney Transplantation: A Prospective Cohort Study Analyzed Using a Linear Mixed Model

Aorto-iliac calcification (AIC) is a well-studied risk factor for post-transplant cardiovascular events and mortality. Its effect on graft function remains unknown. The primary aim of this prospective cohort study was to assess the association between AIC and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the first year post-transplant. Eligibility criteria were: ≥50 years of age or ≥30 years with at least one risk factor for vascular disease. A non-contrast-enhanced CT-scan was performed with quantification of AIC using the modified Agatston score. The association between AIC and eGFR was investigated with a linear mixed model adjusted for predefined variables. One-hundred-and-forty patients were included with a median of 31 (interquartile range 26-39) eGFR measurements per patient. No direct association between AIC and eGFR was found. We observed a significant interaction between follow-up time and ipsilateral AIC, indicating that patients with higher AIC scores had lower eGFR trajectory over time starting 100 days after transplant (p = 0.014). To conclude, severe AIC is not directly associated with lower post-transplant eGFR. The significant interaction indicates that patients with more severe AIC have a lower eGFR trajectory after 100 days in the first year post-transplant.

Infliximab Induction Lacks Efficacy and Increases BK Virus Infection in Deceased Donor Kidney Transplant Recipients: Results of the CTOT-19 Trial

BACKGROUND

Ischemia-reperfusion (IR) of a kidney transplant (KTx) upregulates TNF α production that amplifies allograft inflammation and may negatively affect transplant outcomes.

METHODS

We tested the effects of blocking TNF peri-KTx via a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 15-center, phase 2 clinical trial. A total of 225 primary transplant recipients of deceased-donor kidneys (KTx; 38.2% Black/African American, 44% White) were randomized to receive intravenous infliximab (IFX) 3 mg/kg or saline placebo (PLBO) initiated before kidney reperfusion. All patients received rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin induction and maintenance immunosuppression (IS) with tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone. The primary end point was the difference between groups in mean 24-month eGFR.

RESULTS

There was no difference in the primary end point of 24-month eGFR between IFX (52.45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; 95% CI, 48.38 to 56.52) versus PLBO (57.35 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; 95% CI, 53.18 to 61.52; P =0.1). There were no significant differences between groups in rates of delayed graft function, biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR), development of de novo donor-specific antibodies, or graft loss/death. Immunosuppression did not differ, and day 7 post-KTx plasma analyses showed approximately ten-fold lower TNF ( P <0.001) in IFX versus PLBO. BK viremia requiring IS change occurred more frequently in IFX (28.9%) versus PLBO (13.4%; P =0.004), with a strong trend toward higher rates of BKV nephropathy in IFX (13.3%) versus PLBO (4.9%; P =0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

IFX induction therapy does not benefit recipients of kidney transplants from deceased donors on this IS regimen. Because the intervention unexpectedly increased rates of BK virus infections, our findings underscore the complexities of targeting peritransplant inflammation as a strategy to improve KTx outcomes.Clinical Trial registry name and registration number:clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02495077).

Defining measures of kidney function in observational studies using routine health care data: methodological and reporting considerations

The availability of electronic health records and access to a large number of routine measurements of serum creatinine and urinary albumin enhance the possibilities for epidemiologic research in kidney disease. However, the frequency of health care use and laboratory testing is determined by health status and indication, imposing certain challenges when identifying patients with kidney injury or disease, when using markers of kidney function as covariates, or when evaluating kidney outcomes. Depending on the specific research question, this may influence the interpretation, generalizability, and/or validity of study results. This review illustrates the heterogeneity of working definitions of kidney disease in the scientific literature and discusses advantages and limitations of the most commonly used approaches using 3 examples. We summarize ways to identify and overcome possible biases and conclude by proposing a framework for reporting definitions of exposures and outcomes in studies of kidney disease using routinely collected health care data.

Sex Differences in Age-Related Loss of Kidney Function

BACKGROUND

CKD is more prevalent in women, but more men receive kidney replacement therapy for kidney failure. This apparent contradiction is not well understood.

METHODS

We investigated sex differences in the loss of kidney function and whether any sex disparities could be explained by comorbidity or CKD risk factors. In the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS) in northern Europe, we recruited 1837 persons (53% women, aged 50-62 years) representative of the general population and without self-reported diabetes, CKD, or cardiovascular disease. Participants' GFR was measured by plasma iohexol clearance in 2007-2009 (n=1627), 2013-2015 (n=1324), and 2018-2020 (n=1384). At each study visit, healthy persons were defined as having no major chronic diseases or risk factors for CKD. We used generalized additive mixed models to assess age- and sex-specific GFR decline rates.

RESULTS

Women had a lower GFR than men at baseline (mean [SD], 90.0 [14.0] versus 98.0 [13.7] ml/min per 1.73 m2; P<0.001). The mean GFR change rate was -0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.88 to -1.04) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year in women and -1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.12 to -1.28) in men. Although the relationship between age and GFR was very close to linear in women, it was curvilinear in men, with steeper GFR slopes at older ages (nonlinear effect; P<0.001). Healthy persons had a slower GFR decline, but health status did not explain the sex difference in the GFR decline.

CONCLUSION

Among middle-aged and elderly individuals in the general population, decline in the mean GFR in women was slower than in men, independent of health status.

Magnetic Resonance Elastography-derived Stiffness Predicts Renal Function Loss and Is Associated With Microvascular Inflammation in Kidney Transplant Recipients

Background.

Organ stiffening can be caused by inflammation and fibrosis, processes that are common causes of transplant kidney dysfunction. Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is a contrast-free, noninvasive imaging modality that measures kidney stiffness. The objective of this study was to assess the ability of MRE to serve as a prognostic factor for renal outcomes.

Methods.

Patients were recruited from the St Michael’s Hospital Kidney Transplant Clinic. Relevant baseline demographic, clinical, and Banff histologic information, along with follow-up estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) data, were recorded. Two-dimensional gradient-echo MRE imaging was performed to obtain kidney “stiffness” maps. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed to examine for relationships between stiffness and microvascular inflammation score. Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to assess the relationship between stiffness and eGFR change over time controlling for other baseline variables. A G²-likelihood ratio Chi-squared test was performed to compare between the baseline models with and without “stiffness.”

Results.

Sixty-eight transplant kidneys were scanned in 66 patients (mean age 56 ± 12 y, 24 females), with 38 allografts undergoing a contemporaneous biopsy. Mean transplant vintage was 7.0 ± 6.8 y. In biopsied allografts, MRE-derived allograft stiffness was associated only with microvascular inflammation (Banff g + ptc score, Spearman ρ = 0.43, P = 0.01), but no other histologic parameters. Stiffness was negatively associated with eGFR change over time (Stiffness × Time interaction β = –0.80, P < 0.0001), a finding that remained significant even when adjusted for biopsy status and baseline variables (Stiffness × Time interaction β = –0.46, P = 0.04). Conversely, the clinical models including “stiffness” showed significantly better fit (P = 0.04) compared with the baseline clinical models without “stiffness.”

Conclusions.

MRE-derived renal stiffness provides important prognostic information regarding renal function loss for patients with allograft dysfunction, over and above what is provided by current clinical variables.

Improvement in Anthropometric Measurements of Malnourished Children by Means of Complementary Food and Nutritional Education in Fars Province, Iran: A Community-Based Intervention

Background

Childhood malnutrition could have adverse impacts on the growth of child and eventually on fertility and general economic growth, and still, this issue remains a worldwide priority and a concern. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the national nutritional interventions program on the improvement and nutritional status of malnourished children children aged 6–59 months.

Methods

This community-based intervention study was conducted with 1288 acute and moderately malnourished children aged 6–59 months referred to health centers. Children received combined nutritional education and counseling with the provision of affordable complementary food for 10 months. Anthropometric measurements were assessed monthly according to the standard protocols.

Results

Our results showed the reduction in the risk of malnutrition among children after nutritional interventions for weight-for-height (WHZ) (P < 0.001), height-for-age (HAZ) (P < 0.001), and weight-for-age (WAZ) (P = 0.008). Total malnourished children indicated improvement in HAZ (<-3 SD: OR = 1.10, P = 0.026), WAZ (<-2SD: OR = 1.21, P < 0.001; <-3SD: OR = 1.60, P < 0.001), and WHZ (<-3SD: OR = 1.10, P = 0.030). Controlling potential confounders (socioeconomic status, childrens' birth supine length, and weight) showed a significant amelioration in HAZ (<-2 SD: OR = 6.20, P = 0.020; <-3 SD: OR = 9, P = 0.003) and WAZ (<-2 SD: OR = 5.85, P = 0.010; <-3 SD: OR = 7.50, P = 0.004). In urban areas, significant amelioration was observed in HAZ (<-3 SD: OR = 1.22, P = 0.010) and WAZ (<-2 SD: OR = 1.24, P = 0.003; <-3 SD: OR = 1.64, P < 0.001). In rural, considerable amelioration was observed in WAZ (<-2 SD: OR = 1.20, P = 0.010; <-3 SD: OR = 1.50, P < 0.001) and WHZ (<-3 SD: OR = 1.20, P = 0.020).

Conclusion

Nutritional training and counseling as well as complementary food intervention among the malnourished children significantly improved the nutritional status of children. So community-based intervention is recommended to reduce the malnutrition among children.

Serum uric acid level is associated with an increase in systolic blood pressure over time in female subjects: Linear mixed-effects model analyses

Whether hyperuricemia is a true risk factor for elevated blood pressure (BP) is controversial, and the sex-specific effects of serum uric acid (SUA) on BP during a follow-up period remain unclear. We investigated whether the association of SUA level with systolic or diastolic BP during a 10-year period differs by sex in a Japanese general population of individuals who received annual health examinations (n = 28,990). After exclusion of subjects who had no BP or SUA data at baseline, a total of 22,994 subjects (male/female: 14,603/8391, age: 47 ± 11 years) were recruited. After adjustment for age; body mass index; BP; SUA level; use of drugs for hyperuricemia and hypertension; diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and chronic kidney disease; family history of hypertension; habits of current smoking and alcohol consumption at baseline; the duration of the observation period; and the interaction between each covariate and the duration of the observation period indicated a significant association of SUA level with change in systolic or diastolic BP over time. There was a significant interaction between sex and SUA level for the change in systolic BP (P = 0.003) but not the change in diastolic BP (P = 0.081). The SUA level at baseline (per 1 mg/dL) was significantly associated with a change in systolic BP over time in females (estimate: 0.073 mmHg/year, P = 0.003) but not in males (estimate: 0.020 mmHg/year, P = 0.160). In conclusion, a high SUA level at baseline is significantly associated with an increase in systolic BP over time in female individuals but not in male individuals.

Bone Mineral Density Changes in Long-Term Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Real-Life Cohort Study of Native Vitamin D Supplementation

Vitamin D insufficiency has been associated with reduced bone mineral density (BMD) in kidney transplant patients (KTRs). However, the efficacy of vitamin D supplementation on BMD remains poorly defined, especially for long-term KTRs. We aimed to investigate the effect of native vitamin D supplementation on the BMD of KTRs during a 2-year follow-up. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. BMD was evaluated with standard DEXA that was performed at baseline (before vitamin D supplementation) and at the end of study period. BMD was assessed at lumbar vertebral bodies (LV) and right femoral neck (FN) by a single operator. According to WHO criteria, results were expressed as the T-score (standard deviation (SD) relative to young healthy adults) and Z-score (SD relative to age-matched controls). Osteoporosis and osteopenia were defined as a T-score ≤ -2.5 SD and a T-score < -1 and a > -2.5 SD, respectively. Based on plasma levels, 25-OH-vitamin D (25-OH-D) was supplemented as recommended for the general population. Data from 100 KTRs were analyzed. The mean study period was 27.7 ± 3.4 months. At study inception, 25-OH-D insufficiency and deficiency were recorded in 65 and 35 patients. At the basal DEXA, the percentage of osteopenia and osteoporosis was 43.3% and 18.6% at LV and 54.1% and 12.2% at FN, respectively. At the end of the study, no differences in the Z-score and T-score gains were observed. During linear mixed model analysis, native vitamin D supplementation was found to have a negative nitration with Z-score changes at the right femoral neck in KTRs (p < 0.05). The mean dose of administered cholecalciferol was 13.396 ± 7.537 UI per week; increased 25-OH-D levels were found (p < 0.0001). Either low BMD or 25-OH-vitamin D concentration was observed in long-term KTRs. Prolonged supplementation with 25-OH-D did not modify BMD, Z-score, or T-score.

Comparison of Adverse Kidney Outcomes With Empagliflozin and Linagliptin Use in Patients With Type 2 Diabetic Patients in a Real-World Setting

Background: To compare the effects of empagliflozin and linagliptin use on kidney outcomes of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients in a real-world setting. Methods: The study involved a propensity score-matched cohort comprising new users of empagliflozin or linagliptin with T2DM between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2018 from a large healthcare delivery system in Taiwan. Clinical outcomes assessed: acute kidney injury (AKI), post-AKI dialysis, and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the relative risk of empagliflozin or linagliptin use; a linear mixed model was used to compare the average change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time. Results: Of the 7,042 individuals, 67 of 3,521 (1.9%) in the empagliflozin group and 144 of 3,521 (4.1%) in the linagliptin group developed AKI during the 2 years follow-up. Patients in the empagliflozin group were at a 40% lower risk of developing AKI compared to those in the linagliptin group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45-0.82, p = 0.001). Stratified analysis showed that empagliflozin users ≥65 years of age (aHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.43-1.13, p = 0.148), or with a baseline eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m² (aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.57-1.65, p = 0.899), or with a baseline glycohemoglobin ≦7% (aHR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.51-2.00, p =0.973) experienced attenuated benefits with respect to AKI risk. A smaller decline in eGFR was observed in empagliflozin users compared to linagliptin users regardless of AKI occurrence (adjusted β = 1.51; 95% CI, 0.30-2.72 ml/min/1.73 m², p = 0.014). Conclusion: Empagliflozin users were at a lower risk of developing AKI and exhibited a smaller eGFR decline than linagliptin users. Thus, empagliflozin may be a safer alternative to linagliptin for T2DM patients.

Disparities in Chronic Kidney Disease Progression by Medicare Advantage Enrollees

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Medicare beneficiaries has quadrupled in the past 2 decades, but little is known about risk factors affecting the progression of CKD. This study aims to understand the progression in Medicare Advantage enrollees and whether it differs by provider recognition of CKD, race and ethnicity, or geographic location. In a large cohort of Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees, we examined whether CKD progression, up to 5 years after study entry, differed by demographic and clinical factors and identified additional risk factors of CKD progression.

METHODS

In a cohort of 1,002,388 MA enrollees with CKD stages 1-4 based on 2013-2018 labs, progression was estimated using a mixed-effects model that adjusted for demographics, geographic location, comorbidity, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, clinical recognition via diagnosed CKD, and time-fixed effects. Race and ethnicity, geographic location, and clinical recognition of CKD were interacted with time in 3 separate regression models.

RESULTS

Mean (median) follow-up was 3.1 (3.0) years. Black and Hispanic MA enrollees had greater kidney function at study entry than other beneficiaries, but their kidney function declined faster. MA enrollees with clinically recognized CKD had estimated glomerular filtration rate levels that were 18.6 units (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18.5-18.7) lower than levels of unrecognized patients, but kidney function declined more slowly in enrollees with clinical recognition. There were no differences in CKD progression by geography. After removal of the race coefficient from the eGFR equation in a sensitivity analysis, kidney function was much lower in all years among Black MA enrollees, but patterns of progression remained the same.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that patients with clinically recognized CKD and racial and ethnic minorities merit closer surveillance and management to reduce their risk of faster progression.

Surgical site complications in kidney transplant recipients: incidence, risk factors and outcomes in the modern era

BACKGROUND

Surgical site complications (SSCs) are an important source of morbidity after kidney transplantation. We assessed the incidence, risk factors, outcomes and economic impact of SSCs in a large, diverse population of kidney transplant recipients.

METHODS

We conducted a single-centre, observational cohort study of adult (age ≥ 18 yr) patients who underwent kidney transplantation between Jan. 1, 2005, and Dec. 31, 2015, with a minimum of 1 year of follow-up. Cases of SSC, including infections and wound dehiscence, were determined from patient records. Inpatient and outpatient hospital costs were determined 6 and 12 months after transplantation. We used the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method to determine the cumulative probability of SSCs and other outcomes. We evaluated risk factors and clinical outcomes using Cox proportional hazard ratios. Linear regression models were used to study the effect of SSCs on graft function.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of SSCs within 30 days after transplantation was 4.19 per 100 person-months. The cumulative probability of developing an SSC within 30 days after transplantation was 4.13% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.23%-5.28%). Increased recipient body mass index (BMI) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.11), longer cold ischemic time (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09) and transplantation in 2010-2012 versus 2005-2009 (HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.19-4.04) were risk factors for SSC development. In multivariable stepwise Cox proportional hazard models, SSC was a significant risk factor for death-censored graft failure (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.60-5.90) and total graft failure (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.32-3.32). Cumulative median hospital costs were $2238.46 greater for patients with an SSC than for those without.

CONCLUSION

Increased BMI, longer cold ischemic time and the 2010-2012 transplantation period predisposed to SSCs. The development of SSCs was associated with a higher risk of graft failure. Strategies to minimize SSCs may improve outcomes after kidney transplantation and reduce costs.

Relationship between carbohydrate-to-fat intake ratio and the development of chronic kidney disease: A community-based prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is well-known that high protein intake is associated with renal hyperfiltration and faster renal function decline, but the association of other macronutrients, carbohydrate and fat, with development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still inconclusive. Therefore, we aimed to examine the relationship between fat-to-carbohydrate intake ratio (F/C ratio) and incident CKD.

METHODS

We included 9226 subjects from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. The subjects were divided into two groups depending on 1 g protein intake per ideal body weight per day. Primary exposure was the F/C ratio defined as calorie intake of fat/calorie intake of fat and carbohydrate. The primary outcome was the development of CKD, which was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of <60 mL/min/1.73 m² and/or proteinuria (≥1+).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up duration of 11.4 years, 778 (8.4%) CKD events occurred. Subjects in the lowest F/C ratio tertile had faster eGFR decline rate than other tertiles. In multivariable Cox analysis, a significantly higher CKD risk was observed in the lowest tertile when protein intake > 1 g/kg/day (hazard ratio [HR] for T1 (<16.1%) vs. T3 (>21.5%), 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.84; P = 0.031). In sensitivity analysis, subjects maintained low F/C ratio diet (<16.1%) during 4 years showed higher risk of subsequent CKD development than those maintained high F/C ratio diet (≥16.1%; HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.10-2.63; P = 0.018). In cubic spline analysis, CKD risk was sharply increased in F/C ratio <16.1%, but the risk was nearly constant in F/C ratio ≥16.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

A diet with a low F/C ratio was associated with increased risk of CKD in the general population. Therefore, it is necessary to limit excessive high carbohydrate and low fat intake to prevent CKD development in this population.

Serum Matrix Metalloproteinase 7 and accelerated GFR decline in a general non-diabetic population

BACKGROUND

Age-related reduction of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is a major contributor to the global chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemic. We investigated whether baseline serum levels of the pro-fibrotic matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2), MMP7 and their inhibitor, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), which mediates fibrosis development in aging animals, were associated with GFR decline in a general nondiabetic population.

METHODS

In the Renal Iohexol Clearance Survey (RENIS), we measured GFR using iohexol clearance in 1627 subjects aged 50-64 without self-reported diabetes, kidney or cardiovascular disease. After a median of 5.6 years, 1324 had follow-up GFR measurements. Using linear mixed models and logistic regression analyses, we evaluated the association of MMP7, MMP2 and TIMP1 with the mean GFR decline rate, risk of accelerated GFR decline (defined as subjects with the 10% steepest GFR slopes: ≥1.8 ml/min/1.73 m2/year) and incident CKD (GFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and/or urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥3.0 mg/mmol).

RESULTS

Higher MMP7 levels (per SD increase of MMP7) were associated with steeper GFR decline rates (-0.23 ml/min/1.73m2/year [95% confidence interval, -0.34 to -0.12]) and increased risk of accelerated GFR decline and incident CKD, (odds ratios; 1.58 (1.30-1.93) and 1.45 (1.05-2.01), respectively, in a model adjusted for age, sex, baseline GFR, ACR and cardiovascular risk factors). MMP2 and TIMP1 showed no association with GFR decline or incident CKD.

CONCLUSION

The pro-fibrotic biomarker MMP7, but not MMP2 or TIMP1, is associated with increased risk of accelerated GFR decline and incident CKD in middle-aged persons from the general population.

Derivation and validation of a machine learning risk score using biomarker and electronic patient data to predict progression of diabetic kidney disease

AIM

Predicting progression in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is critical to improving outcomes. We sought to develop/validate a machine-learned, prognostic risk score (KidneyIntelX™) combining electronic health records (EHR) and biomarkers.

METHODS

This is an observational cohort study of patients with prevalent DKD/banked plasma from two EHR-linked biobanks. A random forest model was trained, and performance (AUC, positive and negative predictive values [PPV/NPV], and net reclassification index [NRI]) was compared with that of a clinical model and Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) categories for predicting a composite outcome of eGFR decline of ≥5 ml/min per year, ≥40% sustained decline, or kidney failure within 5 years.

RESULTS

In 1146 patients, the median age was 63 years, 51% were female, the baseline eGFR was 54 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2, the urine albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR) was 6.9 mg/mmol, follow-up was 4.3 years and 21% had the composite endpoint. On cross-validation in derivation (n = 686), KidneyIntelX had an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74, 0.79). In validation (n = 460), the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.79). By comparison, the AUC for the clinical model was 0.62 (95% CI 0.61, 0.63) in derivation and 0.61 (95% CI 0.60, 0.63) in validation. Using derivation cut-offs, KidneyIntelX stratified 46%, 37% and 17% of the validation cohort into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups for the composite kidney endpoint, respectively. The PPV for progressive decline in kidney function in the high-risk group was 61% for KidneyIntelX vs 40% for the highest risk strata by KDIGO categorisation (p < 0.001). Only 10% of those scored as low risk by KidneyIntelX experienced progression (i.e., NPV of 90%). The NRIevent for the high-risk group was 41% (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

KidneyIntelX improved prediction of kidney outcomes over KDIGO and clinical models in individuals with early stages of DKD.

Different kidney function trajectory patterns before dialysis in elderly patients: clinical implications and outcomes

Background. Identifying trajectories of kidney disease progression in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients may help to deliver better care. We aimed to identify and characterize trajectories of renal function decline in CKD patients and to investigate their association with mortality after dialysis.

Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 378 CKD patients who initiated dialysis (aged 65 years and over) between 2009 and 2016. Were considered mixed models using linear quadratic and cubic models to define the trajectories, and we used probabilistic clustering procedures. Patient characteristics and care practices at and before dialysis were examined by multivariable multinomial logistic regression. The association of these trajectories with mortality after dialysis was examined using Cox models.

Results. Four distinct groups of eGFR trajectories decline before dialysis were identified: slower decline (18.3%), gradual decline (18.3%), early rapid decline (41.2%), and rapid decline (22.2%). Patients with rapid eGFR decline were more likely to have diabetes, more cognitive impairment, to have been hospitalized before dialysis, and were less likely to have received pre-dialysis care compared to the patients with a slower decline. They had a higher risk of death within the first and fourth year after dialysis initiation, and after being more than 4 years in dialysis.

Conclusions. There are different patterns of eGFR trajectories before dialysis initiation in the elderly, that may help to identify those who are more likely to experience an accelerated decline in kidney function, with impact on pre ESKD care and in the mortality risk after dialysis.

Association of High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol With GFR Decline in a General Nondiabetic Population

Introduction

Although lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels are considered a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), experimental evidence suggest that aging, inflammation, and oxidative stress may remodel HDL-C, leading to dysfunctional HDL-C. Population studies on HDL-C and loss of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) reported inconsistent results, but they used inaccurate estimates of the GFR and may have been confounded by comorbidity.

Methods

We investigated the association of HDL-C levels with risk of GFR loss in a general population cohort; the participants were aged 50-62 years and did not have diabetes, CVD, or chronic kidney disease (CKD) at baseline. The GFR was measured using iohexol-clearance at baseline (n=1627) and at the follow-up (n=1324) after a median of 5.6 years. We also investigated any possible effect modification by low-grade inflammation, physical activity, and sex.

Results

Higher HDL-C levels were associated with steeper GFR decline rates and increased risk of rapid GFR decline (>3 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year) in multivariable adjusted linear mixed models and logistic regression (-0.64 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year [95% CI -0.99, -0.29; P < 0.001] and odds ratio 2.7 [95% CI 1.4, 5.2; P < 0.001] per doubling in HDL-C). Effect modifications indicated a stronger association between high HDL-C and GFR loss in physically inactive persons, those with low-grade inflammation, and men.

Conclusion

Higher HDL-C levels were independently associated with accelerated GFR loss in a general middle-aged nondiabetic population.

Assessment of Acute Kidney Injury and Longitudinal Kidney Function After Hospital Discharge Among Patients With and Without COVID-19

Importance

Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs in up to half of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The longitudinal effects of COVID-19-associated AKI on kidney function remain unknown.

Objective

To compare the rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after hospital discharge between patients with and without COVID-19 who experienced in-hospital AKI.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at 5 hospitals in Connecticut and Rhode Island from March 10 to August 31, 2020. Patients who were tested for COVID-19 and developed AKI were screened, and those who survived past discharge, did not require dialysis within 3 days of discharge, and had at least 1 outpatient creatinine level measurement following discharge were included.

Exposures

Diagnosis of COVID-19.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mixed-effects models were used to assess the association between COVID-19-associated AKI and eGFR slope after discharge. The secondary outcome was the time to AKI recovery for the subgroup of patients whose kidney function had not returned to the baseline level by discharge.

Results

A total of 182 patients with COVID-19-associated AKI and 1430 patients with AKI not associated with COVID-19 were included. The population included 813 women (50.4%); median age was 69.7 years (interquartile range, 58.9-78.9 years). Patients with COVID-19-associated AKI were more likely to be Black (73 [40.1%] vs 225 [15.7%]) or Hispanic (40 [22%] vs 126 [8.8%]) and had fewer comorbidities than those without COVID-19 but similar rates of preexisting chronic kidney disease and hypertension. Patients with COVID-19-associated AKI had a greater decrease in eGFR in the unadjusted model (-11.3; 95% CI, -22.1 to -0.4 mL/min/1.73 m2/y; P = .04) and after adjusting for baseline comorbidities (-12.4; 95% CI, -23.7 to -1.2 mL/min/1.73 m2/y; P = .03). In the fully adjusted model controlling for comorbidities, peak creatinine level, and in-hospital dialysis requirement, the eGFR slope difference persisted (-14.0; 95% CI, -25.1 to -2.9 mL/min/1.73 m2/y; P = .01). In the subgroup of patients who had not achieved AKI recovery by discharge (n = 319), COVID-19-associated AKI was associated with decreased kidney recovery during outpatient follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.92).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of US patients who experienced in-hospital AKI, COVID-19-associated AKI was associated with a greater rate of eGFR decrease after discharge compared with AKI in patients without COVID-19, independent of underlying comorbidities or AKI severity. This eGFR trajectory may reinforce the importance of monitoring kidney function after AKI and studying interventions to limit kidney disease after COVID-19-associated AKI.

Bupi Yishen Formula Versus Losartan for Non-Diabetic Stage 4 Chronic Kidney Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) might have benefits in patients with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD), but there is a lack of high-quality evidence, especially in CKD4. This study aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of Bupi Yishen Formula (BYF) vs. losartan in patients with non-diabetic CKD4. This trial was a multicenter, double-blind, double-dummy, randomized controlled trial that was carried out from 11-08-2011 to 07-20-2015. Patients were assigned (1:1) to receive either BYF or losartan for 48 weeks. The primary outcome was the change in the slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over 48 weeks. The secondary outcomes were the composite of end-stage kidney disease, death, doubling of serum creatinine, stroke, and cardiovascular events. A total of 567 patients were randomized to BYF (n = 283) or losartan (n = 284); of these, 549 (97%) patients were included in the final analysis. The BYF group had a slower renal function decline particularly prior to 12 weeks over the 48-week duration (between-group mean difference of eGFR slopes: −2.25 ml/min/1.73 m²/year, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −4.03,−0.47), and a lower risk of composite outcome of death from any cause, doubling of serum creatinine level, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), stroke, or cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.44,0.85). No significant between-group differences were observed in the incidence of adverse events. We conclude that BYF might have renoprotective effects among non-diabetic patients with CKD4 in the first 12 weeks and over 48 weeks, but longer follow-up is required to evaluate the long-term effects.

Clinical Trial Registration:http://www.chictr.org.cn, identifier ChiCTR-TRC-10001518.

Clinical outcomes in donors and recipients of kidney transplantations involving medically complex living donors - a retrospective study

We retrospectively compared the post-transplantation graft survival and the donor's estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) following living donor kidney transplantations (LDKTs) involving medically complex living donors (MCLDs) (the elderly and patients with obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or reduced renal function) and standard living donors (SLDs). The clinical data on patients who underwent LDKTs at our institution from 2006-2019, including 192 SLDs and 99 MCLDs, were evaluated. Regarding recipients, the log-rank test and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses showed a higher incidence of overall and death-censored graft loss in the recipients who received kidneys from MCLDs (Hazard ratio = 2.16 and 3.25, P = 0.015 and 0.004, respectively), after adjusting for recipient-related variables including age, sex, duration of dialysis, ABO compatibility, and donor-specific antibody positivity. Regarding donors, a linear mixed model showed significantly lower postdonation eGFRs (-2.25 ml/min/1.73 m² , P = 0.048) at baseline in MCLDs than SLDs, but comparable change (difference = 0.01 ml/min/1.73 m² /year, P = 0.97). In conclusion, although kidneys from MCLDs are associated with impaired graft survival, the donation did not adversely affect the MCLDs' renal health in at least the short-term. LDKTs involving carefully selected MCLDs would be an acceptable alternative for recipients with no SLDs.

Maternal occupational exposure to carbonaceous nanoscale particles and small for gestational age and the evolution of head circumference in the French Longitudinal Study of Children - Elfe study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between exposure to unintentionally emitted carbonaceous nanoscale particles (NPs) and small for gestational age (SGA), as well as head circumference (HC) at birth and at two years of age.

METHODS

Mothers from the French Longitudinal Study of Children (Elfe cohort) who worked during pregnancy were selected for our study. Data collected at birth and during follow-up (up to two years) were used. The probability and frequency of maternal occupational exposure to unintentionally emitted carbonaceous NPs was estimated using a job exposure matrix (MatPUF). Multivariate logistic regression, linear regression, and mixed models were applied to estimate any associations. Analyses were carried out depending on whether mothers stopped working during the first, second, or third trimester of pregnancy.

RESULTS

Maternal occupational exposure to unintentionally emitted carbonaceous NPs was associated with SGA in the overall study population by multivariate analysis (ORa = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.46), as well as in sub-groups of mothers who stopped working during the second (ORa = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.13, 3.02) or third (ORa = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.95) trimesters. There were no significant associations with HC at birth or two years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a significant association between occupational exposure to carbonaceous NPs and SGA, with the effect depending on the period of exposure during pregnancy. These results should encourage further studies concerning the adverse effects of exposure to carbonaceous NPs on the development of offspring.

Dietary plant and animal protein intake and decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate among elderly women: a 10-year longitudinal cohort study

Background

Many older women demonstrate an age-related accelerating rate of renal decline that is associated with increased rates of bone disease, cardiovascular disease and mortality. Population-based protein restriction has been studied principally in patients with reduced renal function. In this investigation, we examined the hypothesis of a differential effect of plant-derived protein compared with animal-derived protein on renal function in older women.

Methods

We assessed dietary intake from a validated food frequency questionnaire and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine and cystatin C equation) at baseline, 5 and 10 years in the Longitudinal Study of Aging Women cohort. We tested the association between plant- and animal-sourced protein intake and kidney function using linear mixed modeling.

Results

A total of 1374 Caucasian women [mean (standard deviation, SD) age = 75 years (2.7) and mean (SD) baseline eGFR = 65.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 (13.1)] contributed to the analysis. The average decline in eGFR was 0.64 mL/min/1.73 m2/year [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.72]. Higher intakes of plant-sourced protein were associated with slower declines in eGFR after adjusting for covariates including animal protein and energy intake (P = 0.03). For each 10 g of plant protein, the yearly decline in eGFR was reduced by 0.12 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI 0.01–0.23), principally associated with fruit-, vegetable- and nut-derived protein. The intake of animal protein was not associated with eGFR decline (P = 0.84).

Conclusions

Older women consuming a diet that is richer in plant-sourced protein have a slower decline in kidney function. These data extend support for the health benefits of plant-rich diets in the general population to maintain kidney health.

Markers and risk factors for chronic kidney disease in sub-Saharan Africans: baseline levels and 12-month trajectories in newly referred patients in Cameroon

Background

Little is known about the changes in disease makers and risk factors in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) under nephrological care in Africa. This study aimed to evaluate the baseline level of markers of CKD and their 12-month time-trend in newly referred patients in a tertiary hospital in Cameroon.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study including 420 patients referred for CKD between 2006 and 2012 to the nephrology unit of the Douala General Hospital in the littoral region of Cameroon. Their disease and risk profile was assessed at baseline and every 3 months for 1 year. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was based on MDRD and Schwartz equations. CKD was diagnosed in the presence of eGFR< 60 ml/min/1.73 m² and/or proteinuria> 1+ and/or abnormal renal ultrasound persisting for ≥3 months. Data analysis used mixed linear regressions.

Results

Of the 420 patients included, 66.9% were men and mean age was 53.8 (15.1) years. At referral, 37.5% of the participants were at CKD Stage 3, 30.8% at stage 4 and 26.8% at stage 5. There was 168 (40%) diabetic and 319 (75.9%) hypertensive patients. After some improvement during the first 3 months, eGFR steadily decreased during the first year of follow-up, and this pattern was robust to adjustment for many confounders. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels significantly fluctuated during the first twelve months of follow-up. Changes in the levels of other risk factors and markers of disease severity over time were either borderline or non-significant.

Conclusion

Patients with CKD in African settings are referred to the nephrologist at advanced stages. This likely translates into a less beneficial effects of specialised care on the course of the disease.

Sex and Glomerular Filtration Rate Trajectories in Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Differences in CKD progression by sex have been hypothesized to explain disparities in access to kidney transplantation in children. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of eGFR decline and to investigate the association of sex with eGFR decline.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used data from the CKD in Children study. Latent class mixed models were used to identify eGFR trajectories and patient characteristics were compared between trajectories. Progression was studied to two outcomes: ESKD (dialysis or transplantation) and a combined outcome of ESKD or 50% eGFR decline from baseline, using multivariable parametric failure time models.

RESULTS

Among 888 patients, 613 with nonglomerular and 275 with glomerular diseases, we observed four and two distinct GFR trajectories, respectively. Among patients with nonglomerular diseases, there was a higher proportion of males in the group with a low baseline GFR. This group had an increased risk of ESKD or 50% GFR decline, despite a similar absolute decline in GFR. Eight patients with nonglomerular diseases, mostly males with obstructive uropathies, had a more rapid absolute GFR decline. However, the association between male sex and rapid absolute GFR decline was NS after adjustment for age, baseline GFR, and proteinuria. Among patients with glomerular diseases, a subgroup including mostly females with systemic immunologic diseases or crescentic GN had a rapid absolute GFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies different trajectories of CKD progression in children and found a faster progression of CKD in females in patients with glomerular diseases, but no significant sex difference in patients with nonglomerular diseases. The differences in progression seem likely explained by sex differences in the underlying primary kidney disease and in baseline GFR rather than by a direct effect of sex on progression.

Pitfalls of linear regression for estimating slopes over time and how to avoid them by using linear mixed-effects models

Clinical epidemiological studies often focus on investigating the underlying causes of disease. For instance, a nephrologist may be interested in the association between blood pressure and the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, instead of focusing on the mere occurrence of CKD, the decline of kidney function over time might be the outcome of interest. For examining this kidney function trajectory, patients are typically followed over time with their kidney function estimated at several time points. During follow-up, some patients may drop out earlier than others and for different reasons. Furthermore, some patients may have greater kidney function at study entry or faster kidney function decline than others. Also, a substantial heterogeneity may exist in the number of kidney function estimates available for each patient. This heterogeneity with respect to kidney function, dropout and number of kidney function estimates is important to take into account when estimating kidney function trajectories. In general, two methods are used in the literature to estimate kidney function trajectories over time: linear regression to estimate individual slopes and the linear mixed-effects model (LMM), i.e. repeated measures analysis. Importantly, the linear regression method does not properly take into account the above-mentioned heterogeneity, whereas the LMM is able to retain all information and variability in the data. However, the underlying concepts, use and interpretation of LMMs are not always straightforward. Therefore we illustrate this using a clinical example and offer a framework of how to model and interpret the LMM.

Change of Kidney Function Is Associated With All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Diseases: Results From the Kailuan Study

Background

Current evaluation about the relationship of sequential change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and clinical outcomes are still inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the association between the change in kidney function over time and the risk of all‐cause mortality and cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Results

This prospective cohort including 37 691 participants aged ≥45 years used data from the Kailuan Health Registry. The relationship of the annual percentage and absolute change in eGFR and outcomes were analyzed with Cox proportional regression. The participants were stratified according to the quintiles distribution of the percentage annual change in eGFR (Q1–Q5). After adjusting for baseline covariates including initial eGFR, participants with annual eGFR decline were at significantly greater risk for all‐cause mortality (Q1: hazard ratio, 1.22 [95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.43]; Q2: 1.19 [1.01–1.40]) than noted for patients in Q3. Cardiovascular disease risk was also significantly higher in participants with annual eGFR decline (Q1 and Q2). No significantly increased risk of adverse outcomes was noted for patients with annual eGFR increased groups (Q4 and Q5). When considering the absolute eGFR annual change rate (no/mild/rapid decline), we obtained similar results in chronic kidney disease participants, whereas non–chronic kidney disease participants had less pronounced association of eGFR decline with cardiovascular disease, though not with mortality.

Conclusions

A decline in eGFR over time is associated with higher risk for all‐cause mortality and cardiovascular disease independent of initial eGFR and other known risk factors at baseline. Our data support the serial evaluation of change in kidney function as a better prognostic indicator than single eGFR assessments.

Impact of Arteriovenous fistula creation on estimated glomerular filtration rate decline in Predialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is the vascular access of choice for patients on hemodialysis. Recent evidence suggests that AVF creation may slow estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. The study objective was to assess the impact of the AVF creation on eGFR decline, after controlling for key confounding factors.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included adult patients followed in a single-center predialysis clinic between 1999 and 2016. Patients with a patent AVF were followed up to 2 years pre- and post-AVF creation. Estimated GFR trajectory was reported using linear mixed models adjusted for demographic characteristics, comorbidities and use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone blockade.

RESULTS

A total of 146 patients were studied with a median age 68.7 (60.5-75.4) years and a median eGFR at time of AVF creation of 12.8 (11.3-13.9) mL/min/1.73m2. The crude annual eGFR decline rates were - 3.60 ± 4.00 mL/min/1.73 m2 pre- and - 2.28 ± 3.56 mL/min/1.73 m2 post-AVF, resulting in a mean difference of 1.28 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI 0.49, 2.07). In a mixed effect linear regression model, monthly eGFR decline was - 0.63 (95% CI -0.81, - 0.46; p <  0.001) mL/min/1.73m2/month. The period after AVF creation was associated with a relatively higher eGFR (β 0.94, 95% CI 0.61-1.26, p <  0.001). There was a significant association between follow-up time and the period pre/post AVF (β 0.19, 95% CI 0.16, 0.22; p <  0.001) such that eGFR decline was more attenuated each month after AVF creation.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, AVF creation was associated with a significant reduction of eGFR decline. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm this association.

Rationale and design of a multicenter Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) and at-risk for CKD electronic health records-based registry: CURE-CKD

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health problem, exhibiting sharp increases in incidence, prevalence, and attributable morbidity and mortality. There is a critical need to better understand the demographics, clinical characteristics, and key risk factors for CKD; and to develop platforms for testing novel interventions to improve modifiable risk factors, particularly for the CKD patients with a rapid decline in kidney function.

METHODS

We describe a novel collaboration between two large healthcare systems (Providence St. Joseph Health and University of California, Los Angeles Health) supported by leadership from both institutions, which was created to develop harmonized cohorts of patients with CKD or those at increased risk for CKD (hypertension/HTN, diabetes/DM, pre-diabetes) from electronic health record data.

RESULTS

The combined repository of candidate records included more than 3.3 million patients with at least a single qualifying measure for CKD and/or at-risk for CKD. The CURE-CKD registry includes over 2.6 million patients with and/or at-risk for CKD identified by stricter guide-line based criteria using a combination of administrative encounter codes, physical examinations, laboratory values and medication use. Notably, data based on race/ethnicity and geography in part, will enable robust analyses to study traditionally disadvantaged or marginalized patients not typically included in clinical trials.

DISCUSSION

CURE-CKD project is a unique multidisciplinary collaboration between nephrologists, endocrinologists, primary care physicians with health services research skills, health economists, and those with expertise in statistics, bio-informatics and machine learning. The CURE-CKD registry uses curated observations from real-world settings across two large healthcare systems and has great potential to provide important contributions for healthcare and for improving clinical outcomes in patients with and at-risk for CKD.

The relationship between eGFR slope and subsequent risk of vascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes: the ADVANCE-ON study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Some studies have reported that annual change in eGFR (eGFR slope) is associated with the future risk of end-stage kidney disease, cardiovascular disease and death in general or chronic kidney disease cohorts. However, the benefits of using eGFR slopes for prediction of major clinical outcomes in diabetes are unclear.

METHODS

We used data from the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial and the ADVANCE Post-Trial Observational Study (ADVANCE-ON). After excluding the first 4 months during which an acute fall in eGFR was induced by the initiation of an ACE inhibitor and diuretic combination agent, eGFR slopes were estimated by linear mixed models, using three measurements of eGFR at 4, 12 and 24 months after randomisation over 20 months, and categorised according to quartiles. Cox regression models were used to evaluate adjusted HRs for the study's primary outcome, a composite of major renal events, major macrovascular events and all-cause mortality during the subsequent follow-up from 24 months after randomisation.

RESULTS

A total of 8,879 participants (80%) were included in this cohort. The mean age was 65.6 years (SD 6.3), the mean eGFR was 75 ml min-1 (1.73 m)-2 (SD 17) and the median urinary albumin/creatinine ratio was 14 μg/mg (interquartile range 7-38). The mean eGFR slope was -0.63 ml min-1 (1.73 m)-2 year-1 (SD 1.75). Over a median follow-up of 7.6 years following the 20-month eGFR slope ascertainment period, 2,221 participants (25%) met the primary outcome. An annual substantial decrease in eGFR (lowest 25%, <-1.63 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 year-1) was significantly associated with the subsequent risk of the primary outcome (HR 1.30 [95% CI 1.17, 1.43]) compared with a stable change in eGFR (middle 50%, -1.63 to 0.33). An annual substantial increase in eGFR (highest 25%, >0.33) had no significant association with the risk of the primary outcome (HR 0.96 [95% CI 0.86, 1.07]).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our study supports the utility of eGFR slope in type 2 diabetes as a surrogate endpoint for renal outcomes, as well as a prognostic factor for identifying individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

TRIAL REGISTRY NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov registration no. NCT00145925 and no. NCT00949286.

Neuropeptide Y and chronic kidney disease progression: a cohort study

Background

Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is a sympathetic neurotransmitter that has been implicated in various disorders including obesity, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular diseases.

Methods

We investigated the relationship between circulating NPY and the progression of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria and the risk for a combined renal endpoint (>30% GFR loss, dialysis/transplantation) in two European chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts including follow-up of 753 and 576 patients for 36 and 57 months, respectively.

Results

Average plasma NPY was 104 ± 32 pmol/L in the first CKD cohort and 119 ± 41 pmol/L in the second one. In separate analyses of the two cohorts, NPY associated with the progression of the estimated GFR (eGFR) and proteinuria over time in both unadjusted and adjusted {eGFR: -3.60 mL/min/1.73 m2 [95% confidence interval (CI): -4.46 to - 2.74] P < 0.001 and -0.83 mL/min/1.73 m2 (-1.41 to - 0.25, P = 0.005); proteinuria: 0.18 g/24 h (0.11-0.25) P < 0.001 and 0.07 g/24 h (0.005-0.14) P = 0.033} analyses by the mixed linear model. Accordingly, in a combined analysis of the two cohorts accounting for the competitive risk of death (Fine and Gray model), NPY predicted (P = 0.005) the renal endpoint [sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR): 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03-1.16; P = 0.005] and the SHR in the first cohort (1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.25) did not differ (P = 0.25) from that in the second cohort (1.06, 95% CI: 0.98-1.15).

Conclusions

NPY associates with proteinuria and faster CKD progression as well as with a higher risk of kidney failure. These findings suggest that the sympathetic system and/or properties intrinsic to the NPY molecule may play a role in CKD progression.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline and Incident Frailty in Older Adults

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Low eGFR is known to be associated with frailty, but the association between the longitudinal decline of eGFR and incident frailty in older persons remains to be determined. The objective of this study was to investigate whether a fast decline on eGFR would be associated with incident frailty.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Community dwellers, aged ≥70, were included in this secondary analysis of the 5-year Multidomain Alzheimer Preventive Trial (MAPT). eGFR was calculated using CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration equation at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months. The lowest quartile of eGFR slope (-4.1 ml/min per 1.73 m² per yr) defined a fast decline. The frailty phenotype (unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, slow gait, low handgrip strength assessed with a 0-5 score, where higher is worse; a score ≥3 defines frailty) was assessed at baseline, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months. Cox models were used to test the association between fast eGFR decline and incident frailty.

RESULTS

A total of 833 participants were frail neither at baseline nor at 2 years and had appropriate follow-up data. Median (IQR) baseline eGFR was 73 (61-84) ml/min per 1.73 m². Frailty occurred in 95 (11%) participants between 24 and 60 months. Among them, 31/207 (15%) had fast eGFR decline between baseline and 24 months, and 64/626 (10%) did not. In a Cox model adjusted for demographic variables, cardiovascular comorbidity, C-reactive protein, and baseline eGFR, a fast eGFR decline was associated with incident frailty (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.71). Sensitivity analyses provided consistent findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In community-dwelling older adults with relatively preserved baseline eGFR, a fast eGFR decline is associated with incident frailty.

Extracellular fluid volume is associated with incident end-stage kidney disease and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease

Volume overload has been shown to be an independent risk factor for mortality in patients receiving chronic dialysis, but data in non-dialysis patients are scarce. Therefore we evaluated the prognostic value of extracellular fluid (ECF) volume for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and mortality in a prospective hospital-based cohort with CKD stage 1-4 (NephroTest Study). ECF (scaled to body surface area) and the measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR) were determined using the distribution volume and clearance of 51Cr-EDTA, respectively. Cause-specific Cox and linear mixed-effect regression models were used to analyze the association of ECF with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and mortality, and with mGFR decline, respectively. The 1593 patients were mean age 58.8 years, 67% were men, mean mGFR of 43.6 mL/min/1.73m² and mean ECF 15.1 L/1.73m². After a median follow-up of 5.3 years, ESKD occurred in 324 patients and 185 patients died before ESKD. In multivariable analysis, ECF was significantly associated with the risk of ESKD (hazard ratio per 1L/1.73m² increase: 1.14; 95% confidence interval [1.07; 1.21]) and with a faster GFR decline (adjusted mean difference in mGFR slope per 1L/1.73m² increase -0.14 [-0.23; -0.05] mL/min/year). The relationship of ECF with mortality was non-linear and not significant (per 1L/1.73m² increase 0.92, [0.73; 1.16]), below 15L/1.73m², but significant (1.28; [1.14-1.45]) above 15L/1.73m². Thus, in this large cohort of carefully phenotyped patients with CKD, ECF was an independent risk factor of CKD progression and mortality. Hence, close monitoring and treatment of fluid overload are important for the clinical management of patients with non-dialysis CKD.

Trends in and Predictors of Carbapenem Consumption across North American Hospitals: Results from a Multicenter Survey by the MAD-ID Research Network

We sought to define trends in and predictors of carbapenem consumption across community, teaching, and university-affiliated hospitals in the United States and Canada. We conducted a retrospective multicenter survey of carbapenem and broad-spectrum noncarbapenem beta-lactam consumption between January 2011 and December 2013. Consumption was tabulated as defined daily doses (DDD) or as days of therapy (DOT) per 1,000 patient days (PD). Multivariate mixed-effects models were explored, and final model goodness of fit was assessed by regressions of observed versus predicted values and residual distributions. A total of 20 acute-care hospitals responded. The centers treated adult patients (n = 19/20) and pediatric/neonatal patients (n = 17/20). The majority of the centers were nonprofit (n = 17/20) and not affiliated with medical/teaching institutions (n = 11/20). The median (interquartile range [IQR]) carbapenem consumption rates were 38.8 (17.4 to 95.7) DDD/1,000 PD and 29.7 (19.2 to 40.1) DOT/1,000 PD overall. Carbapenem consumption was well described by a multivariate linear mixed-effects model (fixed effects, R ² = 0.792; fixed plus random effects, R ² = 0.974). Carbapenem consumption increased by 1.91-fold/quarter from 48.6 DDD/1,000 PD (P = 0.004) and by 0.056-fold/quarter from 45.7 DOT/1,000 PD (P = 0.93) over the study period. Noncarbapenem consumption was independently related to increasing carbapenem consumption (beta = 0.31 for increasing noncarbapenem beta-lactam consumption; P < 0.001). Regular antibiogram publication and promotion of conversion from intravenous (i.v.) to oral (p.o.) administration independently affected carbapenem consumption rates. In the final model, 58.5% of the observed variance in consumption was attributable to between-hospital differences. Rates of carbapenem consumption across 20 North American hospitals differed greatly, and the observed differences were correlated with hospital-specific demographics. Additional studies focusing on the drivers of hospital-specific carbapenem consumption are needed to determine whether these rates are justifiable.

Identifying subgroups of renal function trajectories

Background

Renal function in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may follow different trajectory profiles. The aim of this study was to evaluate and illustrate the ability of the latent class linear mixed model (LCMM) to identify clinically relevant subgroups of renal function trajectories within a multicenter hospital-based cohort of CKD patients.

Methods

We analysed data from the NephroTest cohort including 1967 patients with all-stage CKD at baseline who had glomerular filtration rate (GFR) both measured by 51 Cr-EDTA renal clearance (mGFR) and estimated by the CKD-EPI equation (eGFR); 1103 patients had at least two measurements. The LCMM was used to identify subgroups of GFR trajectories, and patients' characteristics at baseline were compared between the subgroups identified.

Results

Five classes of mGFR trajectories were identified. Three had a slow linear decline of mGFR over time at different levels. In the two others, patients had a high level of mGFR at baseline with either a strong nonlinear decline over time ( n  = 11) or a nonlinear improvement ( n  = 94) of mGFR. Higher levels of proteinuria and blood pressure at baseline were observed in classes with either severely decreased mGFR or strong mGFR decline over time. Using eGFR provided similar findings.

Conclusion

The LCMM allowed us to identify in our cohort five clinically relevant subgroups of renal function trajectories. It could be used in other CKD cohorts to better characterize their different profiles of disease progression, as well as to investigate specific risk factors associated with each profile.

Multicentre randomised controlled trial protocol of urine CXCL10 monitoring strategy in kidney transplant recipients

INTRODUCTION

Subclinical inflammation is an important predictor of death-censored graft loss, and its treatment has been shown to improve graft outcomes. Urine CXCL10 outperforms standard post-transplant surveillance in observational studies, by detecting subclinical rejection and early clinical rejection before graft functional decline in kidney transplant recipients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a phase ii/iii multicentre, international randomised controlled parallel group trial to determine if the early treatment of rejection, as detected by urine CXCL10, will improve kidney allograft outcomes. Incident adult kidney transplant patients (n~420) will be enrolled to undergo routine urine CXCL10 monitoring postkidney transplant. Patients at high risk of rejection, defined as confirmed elevated urine CXCL10 level, will be randomised 1:1 stratified by centre (n=250). The intervention arm (n=125) will undergo a study biopsy to check for subclinical rejection and biopsy-proven rejection will be treated per protocol. The control arm (n=125) will undergo routine post-transplant monitoring. The primary outcome at 12 months is a composite of death-censored graft loss, clinical biopsy-proven acute rejection, de novo donor-specific antibody, inflammation in areas of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (Banff i-IFTA, chronic active T-cell mediated rejection) and subclinical tubulitis on 12-month surveillance biopsy. The secondary outcomes include decline of graft function, microvascular inflammation at 12 months, development of IFTA at 12 months, days from transplantation to clinical biopsy-proven rejection, albuminuria, EuroQol five-dimension five-level instrument, cost-effectiveness analysis of the urine CXCL10 monitoring strategy and the urine CXCL10 kinetics in response to rejection therapy.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the University of Manitoba Health Research Ethics Board (HS20861, B2017:076) and the local research ethics boards of participating centres. Recruitment commenced in March 2018 and results are expected to be published in 2023. De-identified data may be shared with other researchers according to international guidelines (International Committee of Medical Journal Editors [ICJME]).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03206801; Pre-results.