Natural history of prediabetes in older adults from a population-based longitudinal study

Association between cardiovascular health and serum vitamin D and its interaction with prediabetes and diabetes

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes and diabetes are common and serious public health problems, and high blood glucose can lead to serious cardiovascular complications. The purpose of this article was to explore the link between CVH levels and the incidence of prediabetes and diabetes in people over 20 years old, and whether serum vitamin D status could alter this relationship.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data, from six consecutive cycles of the NHANES database from 2007 to 2018 were combined, eligible participants were aged ≥20 years. After excluding missing data, a total of 19,992 subjects were enrolled in the study. Significant risk factors for prediabetes and diabetes were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Exploring the interaction of VD and CVH on prediabetes and diabetes based on multifactorial regression analysis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of prediabetes among all participants was 36.15% and the prevalence of diabetes was 16.39%. CVH and vitamin D levels are influential factors in prediabetes and diabetes, and are negatively associated with the risk of developing prediabetes and diabetes. Compared with normoglycemia, poorer CVH and vitamin D deficiency only had a synergistic multiplicative interaction on the development of diabetes, and no significant interaction was observed for the development of prediabetes. Compared with prediabetes, poorer CVH and vitamin D deficiency still had a synergistic additive interaction on the development of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the cross-sectional study only determine the association and do not prove causality, the current results can be used to prompt people to improve their lifestyle and risk factors to prevent prediabetes or diabetes through higher CVH and adequate Vitamin D.

Serum adiponectin and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors-γ levels in obese patients with and without prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

Obesity is an increasingly prevalent global health problem, which is generally caused by the increase in body fat mass above normal and observed in all societies. If the blood glucose level is higher than normal but not high enough to diagnose diabetes, this condition is defined as prediabetes. Adiponectin increases fatty acid oxidation and insulin sensitivity and is closely associated with obesity. One of the nuclear receptor superfamily member peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors is shown to have an important role in various metabolic reactions. This study aimed to investigate the serum levels of adiponectin and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors-gamma parameters, which are closely related to adipose tissue, energy metabolism, and insulin sensitivity, in obese patients with and without prediabetes.

METHODS

For this purpose, 52 obese patients with prediabetes, 48 obese patients with non-prediabetes, and 76 healthy individuals were included in this study. Serum adiponectin and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors-γ levels were analyzed by ELISA.

RESULTS

Serum adiponectin levels were significantly higher in obese patients with prediabetes (18.15±15.99) compared with the control group (15.17±15.67; p=0.42). No significant difference was observed in both adiponectin and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors-γ levels in the obese patients with the non-prediabetes group compared with the control group. However, no significant difference was observed in the obese patients with prediabetes group and obese patients with non-prediabetes group.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that adiponectin may serve as an indicator of prediabetes. This implies that examining adiponectin levels in individuals diagnosed with prediabetes may enhance our understanding of the metabolic processes closely linked to prediabetes and related conditions.

Pros and cons of live kidney donation in prediabetics: A critical review and way forward

There is shortage of organs, including kidneys, worldwide. Along with deceased kidney transplantation, there is a significant rise in live kidney donation. The prevalence of prediabetes (PD), including impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance, is on the rise across the globe. Transplant teams frequently come across prediabetic kidney donors for evaluation. Prediabetics are at risk of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, stroke, neuropathy, retinopathy, dementia, depression and nonalcoholic liver disease along with increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unfortunately, most of the studies done in prediabetic kidney donors are retrospective in nature and have a short follow up period. There is lack of prospective long-term studies to know about the real risk of complications after donation. Furthermore, there are variations in recommendations from various guidelines across the globe for donations in prediabetics, leading to more confusion among clinicians. This increases the responsibility of transplant teams to take appropriate decisions in the best interest of both donors and recipients. This review focuses on pathophysiological changes of PD in kidneys, potential complications of PD, other risk factors for development of type 2 diabetes, a review of guidelines for kidney donation, the potential role of diabetes risk score and calculator in kidney donors and the way forward for the evaluation and selection of prediabetic kidney donors.

Association of prediabetes progression and regression with cognitive decline: Findings from the CHARLS

AIM

The aim of the study was to describe the association of prediabetes progression and regression with change in cognitive function.

METHODS

Data from three waves (2011, 2015 and 2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were analysed. Diabetic statuses in 2011 and 2015 were ascertained using the American Diabetes Association criteria. Cognitive function was assessed and standardized at all three waves, where a total score and its two components (episodic memory and metal status) were calculated. We evaluated the association of prediabetes progression and regression (from 2011 to 2015) with changes in cognitive function from 2011 to 2015 and from 2015 to 2018.

RESULTS

Of 2590 participants (56% women, mean age 58.6 ± 8.4 years) with prediabetes, 12% progressed to diabetes and 41% regressed to normoglycaemia. Compared with participants who remained as prediabetes, those who progressed to diabetes showed a trend to have accelerated decline in episodic memory (β = -0.11, 95% confidence interval -0.22 to 0.003, p = 0.057). However, participants who regressed to normoglycaemia did not have less cognitive decline. Neither prediabetes progression nor regression predicted change in cognitive function from 2015 to 2018. In a separate group of participants who remained as normoglycaemia (n = 858), changes in cognitive function from 2011 to 2015 and from 2015 to 2018 were similar to those who remained as prediabetes.

CONCLUSION

In people with prediabetes, progression to diabetes may be associated with accelerated cognitive decline but regression to normoglycaemia does not retard cognitive decline. Prediabetes progression and regression may not be predictive of change in cognitive function.

Fatty Liver Change in Older Adults as an Important Risk Factor for Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between changes in fatty liver disease (FLD) over time and the risk of type 2 diabetes in elderly individuals with prediabetes.

METHODS

A total of 156,984 elderly individuals with prediabetes who underwent national health screening in 2009 and 2011 were followed up through December 31, 2019. The FLD status was defined as a change in the fatty liver index. Prediabetes was defined as impaired fasting glucose levels at baseline. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate the hazard ratio and CIs for type 2 diabetes according to the changes in FLD.

RESULTS

During a median of 8.35 years of follow-up, type 2 diabetes developed in 29,422 (18.7%) elderly individuals with prediabetes. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratio of type 2 diabetes according to FLD change was 2.22 (95% CI, 2.11 to 2.34) in individuals with persistent FLD compared with those who have never had FLD. Although overall weight loss of 5% or more was associated with a 7% lower risk of type 2 diabetes in total participants, fatty liver status was important. Even with weight loss, those with a history of fatty liver-resolved FLD, new FLD, or persistent FLD-had an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. The risk of type 2 diabetes did not increase in individuals with sustained FLD-free status, regardless of weight change.

CONCLUSION

The presence and change of FLD are important factors for the development of type 2 diabetes in elderly individuals with prediabetes.

Progression from different blood glucose states to cardiovascular diseases: a prospective study based on multi-state model

AIMS

To quantify the trajectories from normoglycaemia to pre-diabetes, subsequently to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and cardiovascular death, and the effects of risk factors on the rates of transition.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the Jinchang Cohort of 42 585 adults aged 20-88 free of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke at baseline. A multistate model was applied for analysing the progression of CVD and its relation to various risk factors. During a median follow-up of 7 years, 7498 participants developed pre-diabetes, 2307 developed T2DM, 2499 developed CVD, and 324 died from CVD. Among 15 postulated transitions, transition from comorbid CHD and stroke to cardiovascular death had the highest rate (157.21/1000 person-years), followed by transition from stroke alone to cardiovascular death (69.31/1000 person-years) and transition from pre-diabetes to normoglycaemia (46.51/1000 person-years). Pre-diabetes had a sojourn time of 6.77 years, and controlling weight, blood lipids, blood pressure, and uric acid within normal limits may promote reversion to normoglycaemia. Among transitions to CHD alone and stroke alone, transition from T2DM had the highest rate (12.21/1000 and 12.16/1000 person-years), followed by transition from pre-diabetes (6.81/1000 and 4.93/1000 person-years) and normoglycaemia (3.28/1000 and 2.39/1000 person-years). Age and hypertension were associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Overweight/obesity, smoking, dyslipidaemia, and hyperuricaemia played crucial but different roles in transitions.

CONCLUSION

Pre-diabetes was the optimal intervention stage in the disease trajectory. The derived transition rates, sojourn time, and influence factors could provide scientific support for the primary prevention of both T2DM and CVD.

Should Prediabetes be Treated Pharmacologically?

OBJECTIVE

In this commentary I will evaluate whether prediabetes should be treated pharmacologically. To consider this question, certain information concerning prediabetes is relevant.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

(1) Prediabetes is not independently associated with cardiovascular disease; the other factors in the metabolic syndrome increase that risk; (2) various tests and criteria for diagnosing prediabetes are recommended, yielding prevalences varying from 6% to 38% depending on which are used; (3) one-third of patients with prediabetes revert to normal over time; (4) up to two-thirds of patients with prediabetes do not develop diabetes; (5) people with prediabetes have insulin resistance and impaired insulin secretion; (6) although pharmacological treatment of the dysglycemia temporarily lowers it, when the drugs are discontinued, incident diabetes develops similarly as that in those who received placebos; (7) when the drugs are discontinued, there are no changes in insulin resistance or impaired insulin secretion; (8) incident diabetes was similar at 10 years in people remaining on metformin in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcome Study compared with those who did not receive the drug; (9) no current drugs will directly increase insulin secretion (except sulfonylureas and glinides which have not been used to treat prediabetes because of hypoglycemia concerns); (10) sufficient weight loss to lower insulin resistance by nutritional means is challenging and especially difficult to maintain.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacological treatment of the dysglycemia of prediabetes is not warranted. On the other hand, the ability of high doses of glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists and the combination of a GLP-1 receptor agonist and the glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) to lower weight by 15% and 20%, respectively, deserves consideration for the treatment of prediabetes. This amount of weight loss should decrease insulin resistance, allowing endogenous insulin secretion to be more effective and lower the risk for developing diabetes.

The evolving continuum of dysglycaemia: Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia in older adults

Identifying non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH) and intervening to halt the progression to type 2 diabetes has become an essential component of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk reduction. Diabetes prevention programs have been instigated to address the increasing prevalence of NDH and type 2 diabetes by targeting lifestyle modifications. Evidence suggests that the risk of progression from NDH to type 2 diabetes declines with age, and that a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in older adults is not associated with the same risk of adverse consequences as it is in younger age groups. The current definition of NDH is not adjusted based on a person's age. Therefore, there is debate about the emphasis that should be placed upon a diagnosis of NDH in older adults. This article will explore the evidence and current clinical practice surrounding dysglycaemia through the spectrum of different age ranges, and the potential implications this has for older adults.

Predictive performance of triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) to identify glucose status conversion: a 5-year longitudinal cohort study in Chinese pre-diabetes people

OBJECTIVE

Triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) has been recommended as an alternative indicator of insulin resistance. However, the association between TyG and regression from prediabetes to normoglycemia remains to be elucidated.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study involved 25,248 subjects with prediabetes at baseline conducted from 2010 to 2016. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was designed to evaluate the role of TyG in identifying people at converting from prediabetes to normoglycemia. Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting was used to dig out the nonlinear relationship between them. Detailed evaluations for TyG were also performed using sensitivity and subgroup analyse.

RESULTS

Among the included prediabetes subjects (n = 25,248), the mean age was 49.27 ± 13.84 years old, and 16,701 (66.15%) were male. The mean TyG was 8.83 ± 0.60. The median follow-up time was 2.96 ± 0.90 years. 11,499 (45.54%) individuals had a final diagnosis of normoglycemia. After adjusting for covariates, TyG was negatively affecting the results of glucose status conversion in prediabetes people (HR 0.895, 95% CI 0.863, 0.928). There was a nonlinear connection between TyG and normoglycemia in prediabetes people, and the inflection point was 8.88. The effect sizes (HR) on the left and right sides of the inflection point were 0.99 (0.93, 1.05) and 0.79 (0.74, 0.85), respectively. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these results. Subgroup analysis showed that TyG was more strongly associated with incident glucose status conversion in male, BMI ≥ 25. In contrast, there was a weaker relationship in those with female, BMI < 25.

CONCLUSION

Based on sample of subjects evaluated between 2010 and 2016, TyG index appears to be a promising marker for predicting normoglycemic conversion among prediabetes people in China. This study demonstrates a negative and non-linear association between TyG and glucose status conversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia. TyG is strongly related to glucose status conversion when TyG is above 8.88. From a therapeutic point of view, it is meaningful to maintain TyG levels within the inflection point to 8.88.

Associations of updated cardiovascular health metrics, including sleep health, with incident diabetes and cardiovascular events in older adults with prediabetes: A nationwide population-based cohort study

AIMS

To investigate the association of updated cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics, including sleep health, with the risk of diabetes and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in older adults with prediabetes.

METHODS

A total of 7,948 older adults with prediabetes aged ≥ 65 years were included in this study. CVH was assessed using seven baseline metrics according to the modified American Heart Association recommendations.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 11.9 years, 2,405 (30.3%) cases of diabetes and 2,039 (25.6%) MACE were recorded. Compared with the poor composite CVH metrics group, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) in the intermediate and ideal composite CVH metrics groups were respectively 0.87 (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.78-0.96) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65-0.79) for diabetes events and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.88-1.11) and 0.88 (95% CI = 0.79-0.97) for MACE. The ideal composite CVH metrics group had a lower risk of diabetes and MACE in older adults aged 65-74 years, but not in those aged ≥ 75 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Ideal composite CVH metrics in older adults with prediabetes were associated with a lower risk of diabetes and MACE.

HbA1c-defined prediabetes and progression to type 2 diabetes in Denmark: A population-based study based on routine clinical care laboratory data

AIMS

To estimate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes for individuals with HbA1c-defined prediabetes based on Danish nationwide population-based laboratory databases.

METHODS

We included all HbA1c measurements from general practice and hospitals during 2012 to 2018. We estimated the cumulative incidence of having at least one HbA1c measurement. The prevalence and incidence rates of prediabetes (HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol) were examined in the adult Danish population. The 5-year cumulative incidence of progression to type 2 diabetes was estimated with death as competing event.

RESULTS

Among 4,979,590 adult Danes, 70.8% (95% CI 70.8-70.9) had at least one HbA1c measurement during 2012 to 2018. The prevalence of prediabetes was 7.1% (95% CI 7.1-7.1) in 2018. The incidence rate was 14.2 (95% CI 14.1-14.3) per 1,000 person-years, with median age 66.9 years (IQR 56.7-75.7) and median HbA1c 43 mmol/mol (IQR 42-44) at prediabetes diagnosis. Within five years, 17.5% (95% CI 17.3-17.7) died and the 5-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes was 21.3% (95% CI 21.1-21.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Out of 100 Danish adults, 1.4 develop prediabetes each year and they can be identified at an early stage in laboratory databases. Within five years, one in five individuals with prediabetes progresses to diabetes and one in six dies.

Effect of onset of type 2 diabetes on risks of cardiovascular disease and heart failure among new Zealanders with impaired glucose tolerance over 25 years: tapered-matched landmark analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to examine the association between the incident onset of T2DM and 5- and 10-year risks of CVD and HF in people with IGT identified in primary care in South and West Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) between 1994 and 2019.

METHODS

We compared CVD and HF risks in patients with IGT and with/without T2D newly diagnosed within the exposure window (1-5 years). Tapered matching and landmark analysis (to account for immortal bias) were used to control for potential effects of known confounders.

RESULTS

Among 26,794 patients enrolled with IGT, 845 had T2D newly diagnosed within 5 years from enrolment (landmark date) and 15,452 did not have T2D diagnosed. Patients progressing to T2D (vs. those not progressing) had a similar 5-year risk for CVD (hazard ratio 1.19; 95% CI 0.61-2.32) but significantly higher 10-year risk of CVD (2.45(1.40-4.29)), 5-year risk of HF (1.94(1.20-3.12)) and 10-year risk of HF (2.84(1.83-4.39). The association between the onset of T2D and risk of 10-year risk of CVD, 5-year and 10-year risk of HF was more likely among men, the socioeconomically deprived, those currently smoking, patients with higher metabolic measures and/or those with lower renal function. Patients of NZ European ethnicity had a lower 10-year risk of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

The study suggests that the diagnosis of T2D mediates the risk of CVD and HF in people with IGT. The development of risk scores to identify and better manage individuals with IGT at high risk of T2D is warranted.

Perspectives on Prediabetes and Aging

Diabetes prevention programs (DPPs) have been shown to effectively delay, and sometimes prevent, the progression from prediabetes to diabetes; however, labeling someone with prediabetes comes with potential negative psychological, financial, and self-perception consequences. Many older adults with prediabetes nowadays have a relatively "low-risk" form of prediabetes that rarely progresses to diabetes and may regress to normoglycemia. In this article, we review the impact of aging on glucose metabolism and provide a holistic approach to cases of prediabetes in older adults that maximizes the benefit-risk balance of interventions aimed at addressing prediabetes.

Associations of baseline glycemic status and its transitions with cognitive and physical functioning decline

OBJECTIVE

Evidence about the decline of cognition and physical function across glycemic status (normoglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes) is inconsistent. We evaluated longitudinal changes in cognition and physical function according to glycemic status and also different glycemic transitions.

STUDY DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

METHODS

9307 participants (mean age 59.7 years, 53.7 % women) were included from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2018). Global cognition (assessed by orientation, memory, and executive function) and physical function (calculated as the sum of impaired basic and instrumental activities of daily living) were assessed in each wave. The glycemic status was assessed in waves 2011 and 2015. Diabetes was defined as fasting blood glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L, HbA1c ≥6.5 %, self-reported diabetes, or glucose-lowering medication use. Prediabetes was defined as fasting blood glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/L or an HbA1c of 5.7-6.4 %.

RESULTS

Compared with normoglycemia, baseline diabetes was associated with a faster decline in orientation (-0.018 SD/year, 95%CI -0.032, -0.004) and a faster increase in physical function score (0.082 /year, 95%CI 0.038, 0.126). We did not observe any effect of prediabetes on the changing rate of cognition and physical function. Progression from normoglycemia to diabetes between waves 2011 and 2015 was associated with a significantly faster decline in global cognition, memory, executive function, and physical function compared with stable normoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline diabetes was associated with accelerated decline of cognition and physical function. Associations with prediabetes were not observed, suggesting an important short diagnostic window when diabetes presents de novo.

Lower-than-normal glycemic levels to achieve optimal reduction of diabetes risk among individuals with prediabetes: A prospective cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

To determine whether lower than currently accepted glycemic levels could lead to optimal risk reduction of incident diabetes among individuals with prediabetes.

METHODS

We enrolled 9903 individuals with prediabetes and 16,902 individuals with normoglycemia from a prospective cohort participating health check-ups between 2006 and 2017. While classifying fasting glucose into <5.0, 5.0-5.5, and 5.6-6.9 mmol/L and postprandial glucose into <6.7, 6.7-7.7, and 7.8-11.0 mmol/L, we grouped fasting/postprandial glucose into five categories (<5.0/<6.7, <5.0/6.7-7.7, 5.0-5.5/<6.7, 5.0-5.5/6.7-7.7 mmol/L, 5.6-6.9/7.8-11.0 mmol/L). The primary outcome was incident diabetes.

RESULTS

In individuals with prediabetes, the presence of a baseline fasting glucose <5.0 mmol/L or a postprandial glucose <6.7 mmol/L led to a greater risk reduction of incident diabetes with hazard ratios of 0.34 (95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.42) and 0.47 (0.41-0.54), respectively, relative to a fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/L and a postprandial glucose 7.8-11.0 mmol/L. For individuals with prediabetes having fasting/postprandial glucose <5.0/<6.7 mmol/L, the incidence of 6.4 (4.7-8.8) per 1000 person-years corresponded to that of 5.8 (4.2-8.0) per 1000 person-years for individuals with normoglycemia having 5.0-5.5/6.7-7.7 mmol/L.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Given that lower-than-normal glycemic levels were plausible for optimal risk reduction of diabetes, stringent glycemic management could be beneficial for diabetes prevention among individuals with prediabetes.

Associations Between Modifiable Risk Factors and Changes in Glycemic Status Among Individuals With Prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between modifiable risk factors and glycemic status changes in individuals with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 10,358 individuals with prediabetes defined by their fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels from the Health Examinees-Gem study were included in the present study. Modifiable factors, including BMI, abdominal obesity, smoking status, physical activity, alcohol consumption, diet quality, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, were examined to determine their associations with changes in glycemic status during follow-up. In addition, modifiable-factor scores were calculated, and their association with changes in glycemic status was also analyzed.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time for this study was 4 years (range, 1-7 years). BMI ≥25 kg/m2 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.71 [95% CI 0.63-0.79]), abdominal obesity (OR 0.76 [95% CI 0.68-0.86]), heavy drinking (OR 0.74 [95% CI 0.60-0.91]), hypertension (OR 0.71 [95% CI 0.64-0.79]), and dyslipidemia (OR 0.78 [95% CI 0.70-0.85]) were associated with a lower possibility of normoglycemia reversion. BMI ≥25 kg/m2 (OR 1.58 [95% CI 1.29-1.94]), abdominal obesity (OR 1.31 [95% CI 1.11-1.55]), current smoking (OR 1.43 [95% CI 1.07-1.91]), and hypertension (OR 1.26 [95% CI 1.07-1.49]) were associated with a higher probability of type 2 diabetes progression. Having more favorable modifiable factors was also associated with normoglycemia reversion (OR 1.46 [95% CI 1.30-1.64]) and type 2 diabetes progression (OR 0.62 [95% CI 0.49-0.77]).

CONCLUSIONS

More favorable modifiable factors were related to a higher probability of returning to normoglycemia and a lower probability of progression to type 2 diabetes.

Predictive Efficiency of Prediabetes for Diabetes Among Chinese Middle-Aged and Older Populations: a 5-Year National Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have explored the predictive efficiency of prediabetes based on two definitions for diabetes among Chinese middle-aged and older populations with prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive efficiency of prediabetes based on two definitions for diabetes and the clinical and public health benefit in Chinese middle-aged and older populations.

DESIGN

A 5-year cohort study from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 5208 participants who had blood sample data at baseline in 2011.

MAIN MEASURES

The exposure was prediabetes based on American Diabetes Association (ADA) and World Health Organization (WHO) definition. The main outcome was incident diabetes. The ability of prediabetes for predicting diabetes was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to explore the associations between prediabetes and the 5-year risk of diabetes and all-cause mortality.

KEY RESULTS

Among those with prediabetes according to the ADA definition, only 426 (15.45%) with baseline prediabetes progressed to total diabetes, while according to the WHO definition, 208 (21.89%) progressed to total diabetes. In terms of the ability of predicting the incident total diabetes in 5 years, the ADA definition has a higher sensitivity than the WHO definition (70.76% versus 34.55%, P < 0.001), while the WHO definition has a higher specificity than the ADA definition (84.09% versus 49.35%, P < 0.001). Positive predictive values based on the two definitions were low (< 24%); negative predictive values were high (> 90%).

CONCLUSIONS

Neither definition of prediabetes is robust for predicting diabetes development in Chineses middle-aged and older populations.

Determinants of the progression to type 2 diabetes and regression to normoglycemia in people with pre-diabetes: A population-based cohort study over ten years

AIMS

To determine the rates and predictors of the regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes among subjects with pre-diabetes.

METHODS

A 10-year longitudinal population-based study was conducted among 1329 participants with pre-diabetes in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Pre-diabetes was divided into isolated IFG (iIFG), isolated IGT (iIGT), and combined IFG/IGT. Univariate and stepwise multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate predictors of glycemic conversions.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidences of normoglycemia and diabetes were 43.7% (95%CI 40.9-46.4) and 40.1% (37.3-42.7), respectively. Isolated IGT returned to normoglycemia more than iIFG (HR:1.26, 1.05-1.51), but there was no difference in how quickly they progressed to diabetes. Regression to normoglycemia was associated with younger age, female sex, lower BMI, no familial history of diabetes, higher HDL-C, and ex-smoking. Older age, higher BMI, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, lower HDL-C, and familial history for diabetes were associated with progression to diabetes. The influence of BMI on glycemic status conversions diminished with age. At approximately above 60 years old, the hazards of BMI for any conversions faded out.

CONCLUSIONS

The modifiable predictors of regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes are roughly the same. The importance of BMI attenuates in elderly subjects.

Vascular complications in prediabetes and type 2 diabetes: a continuous process arising from a common pathology

The term, "prediabetes", describes a state of hyperglycaemia that is intermediate between true normoglycaemia and the diagnostic cut-offs for indices of glycaemia that are used to diagnose type 2 diabetes. The presence of prediabetes markedly increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Numerous randomized, controlled evaluations of various agents have demonstrated significant prevention or delay of the onset of type 2 diabetes in subjects with prediabetes. Intensive lifestyle interventions and metformin have been studied most widely, with the lifestyle intervention being more effective in the majority of subjects. The application of therapeutic interventions at the time of prediabetes to preserve long-term outcomes has been controversial, however, due to a lack of evidence relating to the pathogenic effects of prediabetes and the effectiveness of interventions to produce a long-term clinical benefit. Recent studies have confirmed that prediabetes, however defined, is associated with a significantly increased risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications essentially identical to those of diabetes, and also with subclinical derangements of the function of microvasculature and neurons that likely signify increased risk of compilations in future. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes and type 2 diabetes appear to be part of a continuum of increased risk of adverse outcomes. Long-term (25-30 years) post-trial follow up of two major diabetes prevention trials have shown that short-term interventions to prevent diabetes lead to long-term reductions in the risk of complications. These findings support the concept of therapeutic intervention to preserve long-term health in people with prediabetes before type 2 diabetes becomes established.

Supervised high-load resistance training for improving muscle strength and quality in prediabetic older adults: A pilot randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of high- and low-load supervised, volume-matched resistance training (RT) on body composition, muscle function, and functional capacity in older adults with prediabetes.

METHODS

Older adults with prediabetes were recruited and randomly assigned to high-load RT (n = 13), low-load RT (n = 12), or control groups (n = 12).

RESULTS

No significant differences were observed in body composition at postintervention. High-load and low-load RT groups exhibited significant improvements in functional tests at postintervention compared with the control group. The high-load RT group exhibited a greater improvement in muscle strength and muscle quality at postintervention compared with the low-load RT group.

CONCLUSION

Supervised RT is useful in the prevention of muscle functional loss in older adults with prediabetes. High-load RT is superior for enhancing muscle strength and muscle quality, despite a similar increase in functional capacity.

Predicting the 2-Year Risk of Progression from Prediabetes to Diabetes Using Machine Learning among Chinese Elderly Adults

Identifying people with a high risk of developing diabetes among those with prediabetes may facilitate the implementation of a targeted lifestyle and pharmacological interventions. We aimed to establish machine learning models based on demographic and clinical characteristics to predict the risk of incident diabetes. We used data from the free medical examination service project for elderly people who were 65 years or older to develop logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning models for the follow-up results of 2019 and 2020 and performed internal validation. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1 score were used to select the model with better performance. The average annual progression rate to diabetes in prediabetic elderly people was 14.21%. Each model was trained using eight features and one outcome variable from 9607 prediabetic individuals, and the performance of the models was assessed in 2402 prediabetes patients. The predictive ability of four models in the first year was better than in the second year. The XGBoost model performed relatively efficiently (ROC: 0.6742 for 2019 and 0.6707 for 2020). We established and compared four machine learning models to predict the risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes. Although there was little difference in the performance of the four models, the XGBoost model had a relatively good ROC value, which might perform well in future exploration in this field.

Prediabetes in Young Adults and Its Association With Cardiovascular Health Metrics in the Progression to Diabetes

CONTEXT

The natural history of young adults with prediabetes and its association with cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics in progression to diabetes remain unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the association between CVH metrics and the annual incidence of diabetes in young adults with prediabetes.

METHODS

This observational cohort study used the JMDC Claims Database. We analyzed 18 908 participants aged 18 to 44 years, with available fasting plasma glucose (FPG) data for 5 consecutive years, and who had prediabetes (FPG 100-125 mg/dL) at the initial health checkup. The ideal CVH metrics were as follows: nonsmoking, body mass index (BMI) less than 25 kg/m2, physical activity at goal, optimal dietary habits, blood pressure less than 120/80 mm Hg, and total cholesterol less than 200 mg/dL. We analyzed the association between CVH metrics and the annual incidence of diabetes. We also examined the relationship between 1-year changes in CVH metrics and the subsequent risk of diabetes.

RESULTS

The incidence of diabetes was 3.3% at 1 year and 9.5% at 5 years after the initial health checkup. An increasing number of nonideal CVH metrics have been associated with an increased risk of diabetes. Nonideal BMI, smoking, blood pressure, and total cholesterol level were associated with an increased risk of diabetes. This association was observed both in men and women. A one-point increase in the number of nonideal CVH metric components was associated over 1 year with an increased risk of diabetes.

CONCLUSION

CVH metrics can stratify the risk of diabetes in young adults with prediabetes. Improving CVH metrics may reduce the risk of developing diabetes.

Association of prediabetes with death and diabetic complications in older adults: the pros and cons of active screening for prediabetes

BACKGROUND

active screening can improve health outcomes for people with prediabetes. However, its efficacy in older adults remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

the study aimed to analyse the progression from prediabetes to diabetes in older adults, including associated complications and mortality rates, to determine the benefits of active screening.

DESIGN

retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Korean National Health Insurance Service claims database.

SUBJECTS

a total of 36,946 adults aged ≥65 years who underwent national health examinations from 2006 to 2008.

METHODS

follow-up was until 31 December 2015. Cox's proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death and diabetic complications.

RESULTS

over a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 19.3% of older adults with prediabetes progressed to diabetes. Compared with normoglycaemic adults, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for major adverse cardiovascular events were 1.01 (0.95-1.07), 1.08 (0.95-1.23), 1.14 (1.05-1.23) and 1.50 (1.35-1.68) in adults with prediabetes, newly diagnosed diabetes, diabetes not on insulin and diabetes on insulin, respectively. The corresponding HRs (95% CI) for diabetic retinopathy risk were 1.28 (1.15-1.43), 3.16 (2.71-3.69), 6.58 (6.02-7.19) and 9.17 (8.21-10.24). Diabetic nephropathy risk also significantly increased.

CONCLUSIONS

progression from prediabetes to diabetes is an important concern among older adults. Prediabetes is associated with the risk of microvascular complications, but not cardiovascular complications and mortality. Therefore, active regular screening for prediabetes is necessary to prevent microvascular complications.

Long-term risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality across the glycaemic spectrum in a male-predominant Chinese cohort aged 75 years or older: the Kailuan study

BACKGROUND

Ageing and diabetes are growing global health burdens. The current understanding of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risk across the glycaemic spectrum in older populations is limited.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to characterise CVD and all-cause mortality risk across the glycaemic spectrum among Chinese adults aged 75 years or older in a community-based setting over10 years.

METHODS

The 3,989 adults in the Kailuan Study were aged over 75 years (median age was 79 years [interquartile range: 76-82]; 2,785 normoglycaemic, 691 prediabetic and 513 diabetic, determined by fasting blood glucose levels) at baseline, predominantly male (92.9% male) and followed until December 2019. Time-varying Cox regression and competing-risk models were used to examine the hazard ratio (HR) of incident CVD and mortality across the glycaemic exposures.

RESULTS

During median follow-up of 11.3 years, 433 first CVD and 2,222 deaths were recorded. Compared with normoglycaemia, multivariable-adjusted models revealed the following: (i) prediabetes was not associated with future risks for CVD (HR: 1.17; 95% CI 0.82-1.69) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.70-1.60); (ii) diabetes-associated enhanced risks for CVD and all-cause mortality were mainly confined to those exhibiting low-grade inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2.0 mg/L) levels. The results were consistent after multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a male-predominant Chinese population aged 75 years or older, compared with normoglycaemic participants, prediabetes was not associated with an enhanced 10-year CVD and all-cause mortality risk, and diabetes-associated enhanced 10-year risk was mainly confined to individuals exhibiting low-grade inflammation.

Muscle strength and prediabetes progression and regression in middle-aged and older adults: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes progression is associated with increased mortality while its regression decreases it. It is unclear whether muscle strength is related to prediabetes progression or regression. This study investigated the associations of muscle strength, assessed by grip strength and chair-rising time, with prediabetes progression and regression based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) enrolling middle-aged and older adults.

METHODS

We included 2623 participants with prediabetes from CHARLS, who were followed up 4 years later with blood samples collected for measuring fasting plasma glucose and haemoglobin A1c. Grip strength (normalized by body weight) and chair-rising time were assessed at baseline and categorized into tertiles (low, middle, and high groups). Prediabetes at baseline and follow-up was defined primarily using the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria and secondarily using the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Expert Committee (IEC) criteria. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was applied to obtain the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The mean age of included participants was 59.0 ± 8.6 years, and 46.6% of them were males. During follow-up, 1646 participants remained as prediabetes, 379 progressed to diabetes, and 598 regressed to normoglycaemia based on ADA criteria. Participants who progressed to diabetes had lower normalized grip strength than those who remained as prediabetes (0.49 ± 0.15 vs. 0.53 ± 0.15, P < 0.001), but participants who regressed to normoglycaemia showed the opposite (0.55 ± 0.16 vs. 0.53 ± 0.15, P = 0.003). However, chair-rising time was comparable across different groups (P_overall  = 0.17). Compared with participants in low normalized grip strength or high chair-rising time group, those in high normalized grip strength or low chair-rising time group had decreased odds of progression to diabetes (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.87; and OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.93, respectively) after multivariable adjustment. However, both were unrelated to the odds of regression to normoglycaemia (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.25; and OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.07, respectively). These outcomes remained generally comparable when prediabetes was defined by WHO or IEC criteria. Higher normalized grip strength but not lower chair-rising time was prospectively associated with lower blood pressure, better glycaemic condition, and lower inflammation (all P ≤ 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

High muscle strength is associated with reduced odds of progression to diabetes but does not predict regression to normoglycaemia in prediabetes. Future studies are warranted to assess whether increases in muscle strength promote prediabetes regression.

Historical review of the diagnosis of prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia: Case for the international criteria

In 1997, the ADA recommended an IFG criterion for diagnosing prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia of FPG concentrations of 6.1-6.9 mmol/L (110-125 mg/dL). In 2003, they lowered it to 5.6-6.9 mmol/L (100-125 mg/dL) to equalize developing diabetes between IGT and IFG. International organizations accepted the first IFG criterion but not the second. The ADA subsequently recommended HbA1c levels for diagnosing prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia of 39-47 mmol/mol (5.7-6.4%) based on a model that utilized the composite risk of developing diabetes and CVD. However, the evidence that the intermediate hyperglycemia that defines prediabetes is independently associated with CVD is weak. Rather, the other risk factors for CVD in the metabolic syndrome are responsible. The WHO opined that prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia could not be diagnosed by HbA1c levels but the Canadians and Europeans recommended its diagnosis by values of 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%). With the ADA criteria, approximately one-half of people are normal on re-testing, one-third spontaneously revert to normal over time and two-thirds never develop diabetes in their lifetimes. The international criteria for prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia increase the risk of developing diabetes and might motivate these individuals to more seriously undertake lifestyle interventions as a preventive measure.

Risk of progression to diabetes and mortality in older people with prediabetes: The English longitudinal study on ageing

AIMS

Prediabetes is used to identify people at increased risk for diabetes. However, the importance of prediabetes in older populations is still poorly explored. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of prediabetes, based on either glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels or fasting glucose (FG) levels, or both and the progression of prediabetes to diabetes or to mortality in older participants of the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prediabetes was categorized based on HbA1c levels (5.7%-6.4%) and/or FG levels (5.6-7.0 mmol/L). Information regarding mortality and incident diabetes were recorded during follow-up period of 10 years.

RESULTS

In 2027 participants (mean age: 70.6 years, 55.2% females), the prevalence of prediabetes ranged between 5.9% and 31.1%. Over 8 years of follow-up, 189 participants (5.4% of the initial population) developed diabetes and 606 (17.4%) died. Among 1,403 people with HbA1c at the baseline <5.7%, 33 developed diabetes and 138 died; in contrast, among 479 participants with a diagnosis of prediabetes using a value of HbA1c between 5.7% and 6.4%, 62 developed diabetes and 56 died. Similarly, among 1,657 people with normal values of FG at baseline 60 had a diagnosis of diabetes during follow-up and 163 died, compared to 225 with FG between 5.6 mmol/L and 7.0 mmol/L in which 35 developed diabetes and 31 died.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of prediabetes in older adults is high, but the progression from prediabetes to diabetes is uncommon, whereas the regression to normoglycemia or the progression to death was more frequent.

Prevalence of Diabetes Among Community-Living Older Persons in the Philippines: The FITforFrail Study

Objective

To estimate the prevalence of diabetes among Filipino older persons living in the community.

Methodology

A cross-sectional analysis was done on a random sample of persons 60 years and older from the Focused Interventions for Frail Older Adults Research and Development Program (2018-2019). A diagnosis of diabetes was established by self-reported physician's diagnosis or if the person was on any antihyperglycemic drugs.

Results

The prevalence of self-reported diabetes was 20.5%, with no difference in age, sex, education, or body mass index between older persons with and without diabetes. The presence of 2 or more comorbidities was significantly more common among older persons with diabetes (p<0.001). Visual impairment (p<0.01), hypertension (p<0.001) and hyperlipidemia (p<0.001) were more frequent among those with diabetes.

Conclusion

Diabetes is prevalent among community-living older Filipinos. Therefore, effective public health measures for diabetes prevention and management are needed for the ever-growing older population, who are at the highest risk for morbidity and mortality.

Pre-diabetes in the elderly and the see-saw model of paternalism

Pre-diabetes is a risk factor for the development of diabetes, not a disease in its own right. The prevalence increases with age and reaches nearly 50% of those aged over 75 years in the USA. While lifestyle modification and treatment are likely to benefit those with many years of life ahead of them, they are unlikely to benefit patients with a limited life expectancy. Despite this, some very elderly patients in the UK and elsewhere are being labelled as pre-diabetic. While ideal practice would be to carefully consider the impact of any potentially abnormal blood test before it is taken, this is not always possible in routine practice. In this paper, we discuss a pragmatic, ethical approach for clinicians managing pre-diabetic blood tests in very elderly patients. We argue that a 'see-saw' model of paternalism should be used in deciding which patients to inform that they can be labelled as pre-diabetic. Those patients that may benefit from the label should be informed, and those that will not, should not. Where the benefits/drawbacks are unclear, the result and its potential significance should be discussed in depth with the individual patient. We do not advocate withholding information from any patient. Instead we suggest clinicians use individual patient circumstances to contextualise the relevance of pre-diabetes to the patient and consider the benefits and drawbacks before informing them. This approach has the potential to be used for other pre-conditions and risk factors in addition to pre-diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus in older adults: clinical considerations and management

The past 50 years have seen a growing ageing population with an increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); now, nearly half of all individuals with diabetes mellitus are older adults (aged ≥65 years). Older adults with T2DM present particularly difficult challenges. For example, the accentuated heterogeneity of these patients, the potential presence of multiple comorbidities, the increased susceptibility to hypoglycaemia, the increased dependence on care and the effect of frailty all add to the complexity of managing diabetes mellitus in this age group. In this Review, we offer an update on the key pathophysiological mechanisms associated with T2DM in older people. We then evaluate new evidence relating particularly to the effects of frailty and sarcopenia, the clinical difficulties of age-associated comorbidities, and the implications for existing guidelines and therapeutic options. Our conclusions will focus on the effect of T2DM on an ageing society.

Diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in a population-based sample of individuals aged 75 + years: associations with cognition, major depressive disorder, functionality and quality of life-the Pietà study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the rates of diabetes mellitus (DM) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a population-based sample of individuals aged 75 + years old and their associations with cognitive performance, depression, functionality, and quality of life (QoL).

STUDY DESIGN

Overall, 350 people participated in the study. Assessments of cognition, mood, functionality and QoL were performed using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE), clock-drawing, category fluency tests, the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, Pfeffer's Functional Activities Questionnaire, and the WHO Quality of Life-Old (WHOQOL-OLD).

RESULTS

IFG (ADA criteria) was identified in 42.1% of the sample, while the DM rate was 24.1%. Lack of knowledge of the DM diagnosis and lack of treatment occurred in 27% and 39% of the sample, respectively. Rates of dementia and depression, MMSE, category fluency scores, and previous cardiovascular events did not differ between the glycaemic groups. Individuals with DM performed worse on the clock-drawing test, functionality, and WHOQOL-OLD than the other participants. Individuals with IFG presented similar QoL and functionality when compared with the group without DM.

CONCLUSIONS

IFG and DM were common in this population-based sample aged 75 + years old, as were inadequate diagnoses and treatments of DM. DM individuals presented poor performance in the executive function test, functionality, and QoL. Further studies are recommended to investigate the value of an IFG diagnosis among the most elderly population.

Classifying and communicating risks in prediabetes according to fasting glucose and/or glycated hemoglobin: PREDAPS cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Information about prognostic outcomes can be of great help for people with prediabetes and for physicians in the face of scientific controversy about the cutoff point for defining prediabetes. We aimed to estimate different prognostic outcomes in people with prediabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort of subjects with prediabetes according to American Diabetes Association guidelines.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The probabilities of diabetes onset versus non-onset, the odds against diabetes onset, and the probability of reverting to normoglycemia according to different prediabetes categories were calculated.

RESULTS

The odds against diabetes onset ranged from 29:1 in individuals with isolated FPG of 100-109 mg/dL to 1:1 in individuals with FPG 110-125 mg/dL plus HbA1c 6.0-6.4%. The probability of reversion to normoglycemia was 31.2% (95% CI 24.0-39.6) in those with isolated FPG 100-109 mg/dL and 6.2% (95% CI 1.4-10.0) in those with FPG 110-125 mg/dL plus HbA1c 6.0-6.4%. Of every 100 participants in the first group, 97 did not develop diabetes and 31 reverted to normoglycemia, while in the second group those figures were 52 and 6.

CONCLUSIONS

Using odds of probabilities and absolute numbers might be useful for people with prediabetes and physicians to share decisions on potential interventions.Key pointsCommunicating knowledge on the course of the disease to make clinical decisions is not always done appropriately.Prediabetes is an example where risk communication is important because the prognosis of subjects with prediabetes is very heterogeneous.Depending on fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c levels, the odds of probabilities against diabetes onset ranged from 29: 1 to 1: 1.Depending on fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c levels, the number of subjects in 100 who revert to normoglycemia ranged from 31 to 6.Using probabilities and number absolutes on the prognosis of prediabetes may be useful for people with prediabetes and physicians to share decisions on potential interventions.

Effects of volume-matched resistance training with different loads on glycemic control, inflammation, and body composition in prediabetic older adults

The purpose of the investigation was to examine the influence of resistance training (RT) with equal volume and varying load on glycemic control, inflammation, and body composition in non-obese prediabetic older adults. Non-obese older adults with prediabetes were randomized into two groups - high-load (80% 1RM) and low-load (40% of 1RM) RT (n=12/group), both with the same training volume. Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and blood samples were collected at baseline and again after 10 weeks of RT. Fasting plasma glucose (103.8 vs. 99.9 mg/dL) and the area under the curve (AUC) of OGTT (0-30min) decreased significantly in older adults with prediabetes after 10-weeks of volume-matched RT (p < 0.05). Serum levels of MCP-1 (138.7 vs. 98.5 pg/mL) and TNF-α (1.8 vs. 1.3 pg/mL) showed significant decrease after 10-weeks of high-load RT (p < 0.05). There were no changes in IL-10, IL-6, and CRP levels in both groups. Leptin showed significant decrease after 10-weeks of low-load RT (p < 0.05). Changes in fasting glucose and AUC of OGTT (0-120 min) were positively correlated with changes in MCP-1 and TNF-α (p < 0.05). Lean body mass (39.6 vs. 40.3 kg) increased significantly after 10-weeks of volume-matched RT (p < 0.05). Results indicate that equal-volume RT at different loads is beneficial to glycemic control and muscle growth, and high-load RT shows more prominent anti-inflammatory effects. Novelty: ●Short-term high-load resistance training can help older adults bring their blood sugar level back to normal. ●High-load resistance training attenuates aging-associated chronic inflammation.

Dynamics of glucose metabolism after liver transplantation: Prediabetes as a window of opportunity for patient survival and long-term kidney function

Posttransplantation diabetes mellitus (PTDM) is a relevant complication following liver transplantation with profound impact on morbidity and mortality. To date, little is known about the evolution and dynamics of glucose metabolism and the impact of prediabetes in long-term follow-up. To address this issue, all consecutive adult liver transplant recipients (n=429) from a European university hospital transplant center between 2007 and 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. In patients without pre-existing diabetes (n=327), we conducted a longitudinal characterization of glucose metabolism. Median follow-up was 37 [9-64, IQR] months. Median prevalence of prediabetes was 39 [37-39]% and of PTDM 21 [17-22]%. Throughout follow-up, intra-individual glucose regulation of patients was highly variable, continuously fluctuating between different states of glucose metabolism (normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes, PTDM). Whereas overall survival and long-term kidney function of patients with PTDM were significantly lower than that of patients with normal glucose metabolism, prediabetes was not associated with adverse outcome. This study provides new insight into the dynamics and impact of glucose metabolism after liver transplantation. Unlike PTDM, prediabetes is not associated with adverse outcome, providing a window of opportunity for targeted intervention. The results underline the need for constant screening and intervention in post-transplant care of liver allograft recipients.

Association of fasting glucose with lifetime risk of incident heart failure: the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project

BACKGROUND

Given the rising prevalence of dysglycemia and disparities in heart failure (HF) burden, we determined race- and sex-specific lifetime risk of HF across the spectrum of fasting plasma glucose (FPG).

METHODS

Individual-level data from adults without baseline HF was pooled from 6 population-based cohorts. Modified Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox models adjusted for the competing risk of death, and Irwin's restricted mean were used to estimate the lifetime risk, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), and years lived free from HF in middle-aged (40-59 years) and older (60-79 years) adults with FPG < 100 mg/dL, prediabetes (FPG 100-125 mg/dL) and diabetes (FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL or on antihyperglycemic agents) across race-sex groups.

RESULTS

In 40,117 participants with 638,910 person-years of follow-up, 4846 cases of incident HF occurred. The lifetime risk of HF was significantly higher among middle-aged White adults and Black women with prediabetes (range: 6.1% [95% CI 4.8%, 7.4%] to 10.8% [95% CI 8.3%, 13.4%]) compared with normoglycemic adults (range: 3.5% [95% CI 3.0%, 4.1%] to 6.5% [95% CI 4.9%, 8.1%]). Middle-aged Black women with diabetes had the highest lifetime risk (32.4% [95% CI 26.0%, 38.7%]) and aHR (4.0 [95% CI 3.0, 5.4]) for HF across race-sex groups. Middle-aged adults with prediabetes and diabetes lived on average 0.9-1.6 and 4.1-6.0 fewer years free from HF, respectively. Findings were similar in older adults except older Black women with prediabetes did not have a higher lifetime risk of HF.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes was associated with higher lifetime risk of HF in middle-aged White adults and Black women, with the association attenuating in older Black women. Black women with diabetes had the highest lifetime risk of HF compared with other race-sex groups.

Not Only Diabetes but Also Prediabetes Leads to Functional Decline and Disability in Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes is linked to functional decline, but the impact of prediabetes on physical function is unknown. We aimed to examine and compare the impact of prediabetes and diabetes on physical function and disability progression and to explore whether cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) mediate these associations.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A cohort of 2,013 participants aged ≥60 from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, an ongoing population-based longitudinal study, was monitored for up to 12 years. Physical function was measured with chair stand (s) and walking speed (m/s) tests, and disability was measured by summing the numbers of impaired basic and instrumental activities of daily living. Diabetes was identified through medical examinations or clinical records, medication use, or glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c) ≥6.5%. Prediabetes was defined as HbA_1c ≥5.7-6.4% in participants free of diabetes. CVDs were ascertained through clinical examinations and the National Patient Register. Data were analyzed using mixed-effect models and mediation models.

RESULTS

At baseline, 650 (32.3%) had prediabetes and 151 had diabetes (7.5%). In multiadjusted mixed-effect models, prediabetes was associated with an increased chair stand time (β 0.33, 95% CI 0.05-0.61), a decreased walking speed (β -0.006, 95% CI -0.010 to -0.002), and an accelerated disability progression (β 0.05, 95% CI 0.01-0.08), even after controlling for the future development of diabetes. Diabetes led to faster functional decline than prediabetes. In mediation analyses, CVDs mediated 7.1%, 7.8%, and 20.9% of the associations between prediabetes and chair stand, walking speed, and disability progression, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes, in addition to diabetes, is associated with faster functional decline and disability, independent of the future development of diabetes. This association may be in part mediated by CVDs.

Reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia after weight change in older persons: The KORA F4/FF4 study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In a non-interventional study of older persons, we assessed the impact of changes in BMI and waist circumference (WC) on reversion from glucose- and HbA1c-defined prediabetes to normoglycaemia (in short: reversion) and on persistence of normoglycaemia. Moreover, we studied whether reversion reduced cardiovascular risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the population-based KORA S4/F4/FF4 cohort study conducted in Southern Germany, we utilized data from the second and third visit to the study center (median follow-up 6.5 years). We used two overlapping data sets, one with 563 persons with HbA1c<6.5% (mean age 69 years, 51.5% men), one with 510 persons with glucose-based prediabetes or normal glucose tolerance. We calculated proportions of reversion, and estimated adjusted relative risks for the association between initial BMI/WC and change of BMI/WC, respectively, and reversion (and persistence of normoglycaemia, respectively). We estimated 10-year cardiovascular risks using the Framingham 2008 score. Overall, 27.3% of persons with HbA1c-defined prediabetes and 9.2% of persons with glucose-based prediabetes returned to normoglycaemia during follow-up. Lower initial BMI/WC and reduction of BMI/WC were associated with larger probabilities of returning to normoglycaemia (e.g., for HbA1c 5.7-6.4%, RR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.09-1.41) per 1 kg/m² decline of BMI). Moreover, reduction of BMI/WC increased probabilities of maintaining normoglycaemia (e.g., for glucose-based prediabetes, RR = 1.09 (1.02-1.16) per 1 kg/m² decline of BMI). 10-year cardiovascular risk was 5.6 (1.7-9.6) percentage points lower after reversion from glucose-based prediabetes to normoglycaemia.

CONCLUSION

In older adults, even moderate weight reduction contributes to reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia and to maintaining normoglycaemia.

Lifetime risk to progress from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes among women and men: comparison between American Diabetes Association and World Health Organization diagnostic criteria

INTRODUCTION

Pre-diabetes, a status conferring high risk of overt diabetes, is defined differently by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the WHO. We investigated the impact of applying definitions of pre-diabetes on lifetime risk of diabetes in women and men from the general population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from 8844 women without diabetes and men aged ≥45 years from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study in the Netherlands. In both gender groups, we calculated pre-diabetes prevalence according to ADA and WHO criteria and estimated the 10-year and lifetime risk to progress to overt diabetes with adjustment for competing risk of death.

RESULTS

Out of 8844 individuals, pre-diabetes was identified in 3492 individuals (prevalence 40%, 95% CI 38% to 41%) according to ADA and 1382 individuals (prevalence 16%, 95% CI 15% to 16%) according to WHO criteria. In both women and men and each age category, ADA prevalence estimates doubled WHO-defined pre-diabetes. For women and men aged 45 years having ADA-defined pre-diabetes, the 10-year risk of diabetes was 14.2% (95% CI 6.0% to 22.5%) and 9.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 15.0%) compared with 23.2% (95% CI 6.8% to 39.6%) and 24.6% (95% CI 8.4% to 40.8%) in women and men with WHO-defined pre-diabetes. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk to progress to overt diabetes was 57.5% (95% CI 51.8% to 63.2%) vs 80.2% (95% CI 74.1% to 86.3%) in women and 46.1% (95% CI 40.8% to 51.4%) vs 68.4% (95% CI 58.3% to 78.5%) in men with pre-diabetes according to ADA and WHO definitions, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of pre-diabetes differed considerably in both women and men when applying ADA and WHO pre-diabetes definitions. Women with pre-diabetes had higher lifetime risk to progress to diabetes. The lifetime risk of diabetes was lower in women and men with ADA-defined pre-diabetes as compared with WHO. Improvement of pre-diabetes definition considering appropriate sex-specific and age-specific glycemic thresholds may lead to better identification of individuals at high risk of diabetes.

Metformin Should Not Be Used to Treat Prediabetes

Based on the results of the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS), in which metformin significantly decreased the development of diabetes in individuals with baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations of 110-125 vs. 100-109 mg/dL (6.1-6.9 vs. 5.6-6.0 mmol/L) and A1C levels 6.0-6.4% (42-46 mmol/mol) vs. <6.0% and in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, it has been suggested that metformin should be used to treat people with prediabetes. Since the association between prediabetes and cardiovascular disease is due to the associated nonglycemic risk factors in people with prediabetes, not to the slightly increased glycemia, the only reason to treat with metformin is to delay or prevent the development of diabetes. There are three reasons not to do so. First, approximately two-thirds of people with prediabetes do not develop diabetes, even after many years. Second, approximately one-third of people with prediabetes return to normal glucose regulation. Third, people who meet the glycemic criteria for prediabetes are not at risk for the microvascular complications of diabetes and thus metformin treatment will not affect this important outcome. Why put people who are not at risk for the microvascular complications of diabetes on a drug (possibly for the rest of their lives) that has no immediate advantage except to lower subdiabetes glycemia to even lower levels? Rather, individuals at the highest risk for developing diabetes-i.e., those with FPG concentrations of 110-125 mg/dL (6.1-6.9 mmol/L) or A1C levels of 6.0-6.4% (42-46 mmol/mol) or women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus-should be followed closely and metformin immediately introduced only when they are diagnosed with diabetes.

Association of diabetes with stroke and post-stroke dementia: A population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The impact of prediabetes and diabetes on stroke and the development of dementia after a stroke remain unclear.

METHODS

A total of 2655 dementia-free participants (including a stroke-free cohort and a prevalent stroke cohort) were followed-up for 12 years. Dementia and post-stroke dementia were determined by clinical examinations and national registry data. Diabetes was ascertained via medical examination, medication use, medical records, or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%. Prediabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥5.7% in diabetes-free participants.

RESULTS

In the stroke-free cohort, 236 participants developed ischemic stroke, and 47 developed post-stroke dementia. Diabetes was associated with ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16 to 2.67) and post-stroke dementia (HR 2.56, 95% CI 1.04 to 6.25). In the prevalent stroke cohort, diabetes was also related to dementia risk. Prediabetes was not significantly related to stroke or post-stroke dementia.

DISCUSSION

Diabetes, but not prediabetes, is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke and post-stroke dementia.

Natural history of prediabetes in older adults from a population-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The natural history of prediabetes in older adults remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the rate at which prediabetes progresses to diabetes, leads to death or reverts to normoglycaemia in older adults and to identify prognostic factors related to different outcomes of prediabetes.

METHODS

In the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care-Kungsholmen, 2575 diabetes-free participants aged ≥60 years were examined at baseline and followed for up to 12 years. At each wave, diabetes was diagnosed via medical examination, antidiabetic drug use, medical records or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%. Prediabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥5.7% and normoglycaemia as HbA1c <5.7% in diabetes-free participants. Data were analysed with multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

At baseline, 918 (36%) individuals had prediabetes. Of them, 204 (22%) reverted to normoglycaemia (3.4/100 person-years, 95% CI 5.6-12.3), 119 (13%) developed diabetes (2.0/100 person-years, 95% CI 1.7-2.4) and 215 (23%) died (13.0/100 person-years, 95% CI 11.4-14.9) during the 12-year follow-up. The rates of reversion, progression and mortality were higher in the first 6-year than in the second 6-year follow-up, albeit not statistically significant. Lower systolic blood pressure (SBP), absence of heart diseases and weight loss promoted the reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia, whilst obesity accelerated its progression to diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

During a 12-year follow-up, most of older adults with prediabetes remained stable or reverted to normoglycaemia, whereas only one-third developed diabetes or died. Lower SBP, no heart diseases and weight management may promote reversion to normoglycaemia, suggesting possible strategies for achieving normoglycaemia in older adults with prediabetes.