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Desai K, Sumie M, Yang A, Englesakis M, Maynes JT, Aoyama K. Is there any impact of association between labor neuraxial analgesia and autism spectrum disorders in offspring at the population level? J Anesth 2024; 38:576-579. [PMID: 38907011 DOI: 10.1007/s00540-024-03343-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Kairavi Desai
- Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine, The Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, #2211, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Canada
- Michael G. DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Makoto Sumie
- Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine, The Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, #2211, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Canada
- Program in Child Health Evaluative Sciences, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Anesthesiology, St. Mary's Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Alan Yang
- Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine, The Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, #2211, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Canada
| | - Marina Englesakis
- Library and Information Services, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jason T Maynes
- Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine, The Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, #2211, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Canada
- Program in Molecular Medicine, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kazuyoshi Aoyama
- Department of Anesthesia and Pain Medicine, The Hospital for Sick Children, 555 University Ave, #2211, Toronto, ON, M5G 1X8, Canada.
- Program in Child Health Evaluative Sciences, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Gong HJ, Tang X, Zhou JB. The association between weight change patterns and obesity-related complex multimorbidity: evidence from NHANES. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2024; 15:1400204. [PMID: 38974571 PMCID: PMC11224475 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2024.1400204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2024] [Accepted: 05/31/2024] [Indexed: 07/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective Obesity is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which has been the leading cause of death nowadays. The aim of this study is to examine the association between total changes in body mass index (BMI) across adulthood and the risk of obesity-related complex multimorbidity in elderly, characterizing the capacity of BMI waves in predicting major chronic diseases. Methods In this retrospective study, 15,520 participants were analyzed from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 and 2018. BMI was categorized as obesity (≥30.0 kg/m²), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m²), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m²), and underweight (<18.5 kg/m²). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CIs) for the relationship between BMI change patterns and major health outcomes included hypertension, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes, and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of BMI were evaluated. Results In comparison with participants who remained non-obese, those who are stable obese showed the highest risks of developing at least one chronic disease in later life, with odds ratios of 2.76 (95% CI: 2.20 to 3.45) from age 25 years to 10 years before baseline, 2.90 (2.28 to 3.68) from age 25 years to baseline, and 2.49 (2.11 to 2.95) in the 10-year period before baseline. Moving from non-obese to obese weight-change pattern in all periods (from age 25 years to 10 years before baseline: OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.57 to 2.11; from age 25 years to baseline: OR = 1.87; 95% CI, 1.59 to 2.19; from 10 years before baseline to baseline: OR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.08) and moving from obese to non-obese, the 10-year period before baseline (OR = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.39 to 2.57) was associated with increased risk of chronic diseases. Midlife obesity status can explain the 8.6% risk of occurrence of the chronic diseases in elderly. Conclusions Maintaining a stable healthy weight and losing weight in early adulthood and midlife are important for better life quality during the aging process. More effective strategies and policies to reduce the prevalence of obesity are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Jian Gong
- Department of Endocrinology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xingyao Tang
- Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Jian-Bo Zhou
- Department of Endocrinology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
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Løchen Arnesen CA, Evensen LH, Hveem K, Gabrielsen ME, Hansen JB, Brækkan SK. Proportion of venous thromboembolism attributed to recognized prothrombotic genotypes in men and women. Res Pract Thromb Haemost 2024; 8:102343. [PMID: 38476459 PMCID: PMC10926210 DOI: 10.1016/j.rpth.2024.102343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Revised: 01/30/2024] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Data on the proportion of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk attributed to prothrombotic genotypes in men and women are limited. Objectives We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of VTE for recognized, common prothrombotic genotypes in men and women using a population-based case cohort. Methods Cases with incident VTE (n = 1493) and a randomly sampled subcohort (n = 13,069) were derived from the Tromsø study (1994-2012) and the Trøndelag Health Study (1995-2008) cohorts. DNA samples were genotyped for 17 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with VTE. PAFs with 95% bias-corrected CIs (based on 10,000 bootstrap samples) were estimated for SNPs significantly associated with VTE, and a 6-SNP cumulative model was constructed for both sexes. Results In women, the individual PAFs for SNPs included in the cumulative model were 16.9% for ABO (rs8176719), 17.6% for F11 (rs2036914), 15.1% for F11 (rs2289252), 8.7% for FVL (rs6025), 6.0% for FGG (rs2066865), and 0.2% for F2 (rs1799963). The cumulative PAF for this 6-SNP model was 37.8%. In men, the individual PAFs for SNPs included in the cumulative model were 21.3% for ABO, 12.2% for F11 (rs2036914), 10.4% for F11 (rs2289252), 7.5% for FVL, 7.8% for FGG, and 1.1% for F2. This resulted in a cumulative PAF in men of 51.9%. Conclusion Our findings in a Norwegian population suggest that 52% and 38% of the VTEs can be attributed to known prothrombotic genotypes in men and women, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carl Arne Løchen Arnesen
- Thrombosis Research Group, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Thrombosis Research Center, Division of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Line H Evensen
- Thrombosis Research Group, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Kristian Hveem
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- HUNT Research Center, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Maiken E Gabrielsen
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - John-Bjarne Hansen
- Thrombosis Research Group, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Thrombosis Research Center, Division of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Sigrid K Brækkan
- Thrombosis Research Group, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Thrombosis Research Center, Division of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway
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Onerup A, Mehlig K, Af Geijerstam A, Ekblom-Bak E, Kuhn HG, Lissner L, Rosengren A, Börjesson M, Åberg M. Associations between BMI in youth and site-specific cancer in men-A cohort study with register linkage. Obesity (Silver Spring) 2024; 32:376-389. [PMID: 37927128 DOI: 10.1002/oby.23942] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2023] [Revised: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/26/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study examined BMI in young men and incident site-specific cancer to estimate population attributable fractions due to BMI based on projected obesity prevalence. METHODS A population-based cohort study with measured height and weight at age 18. Cox regression models assessed linear associations for BMI and included age, year, and site of conscription as well as parental level of education as covariates. RESULTS Primary analyses were performed in 1,489,115 men, of whom 78,217 subsequently developed cancer during a mean follow-up of 31 years. BMI was linearly associated with risk of developing all 18 site-specific cancers assessed (malignant melanoma; leukemia; myeloma; Hodgkin lymphoma; non-Hodgkin lymphoma; and cancer in the lungs, head and neck, central nervous system, thyroid, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, liver and gallbladder, colon, rectum, kidney, and bladder), in some instances evident at BMI levels usually defined as normal (20-25 kg/m2 ). Higher BMI was associated with lower risk of prostate cancer. The highest hazard ratios and population attributable fractions were seen for some gastrointestinal cancers. CONCLUSIONS This study reports linear associations between BMI at age 18 and subsequent site-specific cancers, calling for rapid action to stem the obesity epidemic and to prepare the health care system for steep increases in cancer cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aron Onerup
- Department of Pediatrics, Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Kirsten Mehlig
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Agnes Af Geijerstam
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Elin Ekblom-Bak
- Department of Physical Activity and Health, The Swedish School of Sport and Health Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hans-Georg Kuhn
- Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Institute of Public Health, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Lauren Lissner
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Annika Rosengren
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Östra, Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Mats Börjesson
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Center for Lifestyle Intervention, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg and Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Maria Åberg
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
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Dolcini J, Ponzio E, D'Errico MM, Barbadoro P. Socioeconomic differences in dietary habits in Italy before and during COVID-19 pandemic: secondary analysis of a nationwide cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:153. [PMID: 38200456 PMCID: PMC10782767 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17530-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several socioeconomic conditions may influence subjects' adherence to healthy eating habits. Food consumption may be influenced by external stress during crisis periods; however, the effects of these events on food habits are difficult to predict. Also, a pandemic crisis like the recent COVID-19 pandemic may have influenced dietary habits and food consumption. The objective of this study was to compare the dietary habits of Italian people before the COVID-19 pandemic with those belonging to the year 2020 in a nationwide population sample. MATERIALS AND METHODS Information on dietary habits has been obtained from the multi-purpose survey on families' "Aspects of daily life", carried out in Italy by the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT). We analyzed data coming from 2016 and 2020 editions of the survey (43,000 subjects each year). We used population attributable fraction (PAF) adjusted for age, defined as the proportional reduction in unhealthy diet that would occur if all participants had had a higher education, assuming higher educated individuals as more socially advantaged. Prevalence association for each dietary exposition has been calculated through logistic regression. RESULTS Looking at aggregated data from 2016 and 2020 both men and women showed a high prevalence of unhealthy dietary habits. Regarding men, excessive consumption of eggs, pork meat, and bovine meat was characterized by a PAF attributable to socioeconomic conditions to an extent greater than 30%. Women showed the same trend. Focusing on different years of investigation, in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, men and women increased their consumption of eggs, cooked fats, snacks, and sweets, and reduced consumption of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, women increased the assumption of dietary products and meat. Both sexes registered an increase in overweight and obese subjects in 2020. CONCLUSIONS To our knowledge, this study was the first in our country to use a yearly, nationwide sample to analyze dietary habits by examining specific types of various foods on a nationwide scale and establishing a correlation between these habits and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results showed unbalanced dietary habits of the Italian population with an excess of consumption of several foods like eggs, cooked fats snacks, and sweets with low consumption of fruits and vegetables. Socioeconomic differences influence food choices but in a complex way since they seemed to affect some wrong dietary habits but not others, especially regarding fruits and vegetables assumption where differences were less evident among social classes. Outside stressors like a crisis period such as the COVID-19 pandemic seem to have an important role in both men and women regarding the assumption of so-called "junk food".
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacopo Dolcini
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Polytechnic University of the Marche Region, Ancona, Italy.
| | - Elisa Ponzio
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Polytechnic University of the Marche Region, Ancona, Italy
| | - Marcello Mario D'Errico
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Polytechnic University of the Marche Region, Ancona, Italy
| | - Pamela Barbadoro
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Polytechnic University of the Marche Region, Ancona, Italy
- Centre of Obesity, Marche Polytechnic University, Via Tronto 10a, Ancona, 60126, Italy
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Zheng J, Zhu T, Li F, Wu H, Jiang S, Shivappa N, Hébert JR, Li X, Li Y, Wang H. Diet Quality and Mortality among Chinese Adults: Findings from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Nutrients 2023; 16:94. [PMID: 38201925 PMCID: PMC10780502 DOI: 10.3390/nu16010094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 11/28/2023] [Accepted: 12/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The association between diet quality and all-cause mortality in Chinese population is unclear. We aimed to study the associations of three a priori diet quality indices-including the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), Chinese Healthy Eating Index (CHEI), and energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII)-and their included components with all-cause mortality. We used baseline data from the 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2011 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). We used a multivariable-adjusted Cox model to examine the associations between DQI-I, CHEI, and E-DII with all-cause mortality. During a mean of 7 years of follow-up, a total of 461 deaths occurred among 12,914 participants. For DQI-I, there were significant inverse associations with mortality for the variety score (HRQ4 vs. Q1 = 0.69, 95%CI = 0.52-0.92) and overall balance score (HR>0 vs. 0 = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.66-0.91). The adequacy score of CHEI was associated with 40% less risk of all-cause mortality (HRQ4 vs. Q1 = 0.60, 95%CI = 0.43-0.84). E-DII was not associated with mortality. An estimated 20.1%, 13.9%, and 31.3% of total mortality would be averted if the DQI-I variety score, DQI-I overall balance score, and CHEI adequacy score improved from the bottom to the top quartile, respectively. Improving diet quality, especially improving diet variety and adequacy, and having a more balanced diet may reduce all-cause mortality in Chinese adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiali Zheng
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; (T.Z.); (S.J.); (X.L.); (Y.L.)
| | - Tianren Zhu
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; (T.Z.); (S.J.); (X.L.); (Y.L.)
| | - Fangyu Li
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA;
| | - Han Wu
- Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China;
| | - Shuo Jiang
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; (T.Z.); (S.J.); (X.L.); (Y.L.)
| | - Nitin Shivappa
- Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA; (N.S.); (J.R.H.)
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA
| | - James R. Hébert
- Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA; (N.S.); (J.R.H.)
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA
| | - Xiaoguang Li
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; (T.Z.); (S.J.); (X.L.); (Y.L.)
| | - Yan Li
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; (T.Z.); (S.J.); (X.L.); (Y.L.)
| | - Hui Wang
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China; (T.Z.); (S.J.); (X.L.); (Y.L.)
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Dlamini LP, Amelia VL, Shongwe MC, Chang PC, Chung MH. Antenatal depression across trimesters as a risk for postpartum depression and estimation of the fraction of postpartum depression attributable to antenatal depression: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Gen Hosp Psychiatry 2023; 85:35-42. [PMID: 37742599 DOI: 10.1016/j.genhosppsych.2023.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2023] [Revised: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This meta-analysis aimed at estimating the prevalence of postpartum depression (PPD) at different postpartum timepoints in women with antenatal depression (AD) in the three trimesters. We also examined the association between AD and PPD, and estimated the population attributable fraction of PPD to AD. METHODS This systematic review and meta-analysis identified cohort studies that determined the prevalence of PPD in women who had AD, and those that examined the association between AD and PPD from PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL and PsycINFO. Articles were appraised using the modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale and data were analyzed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis. RESULTS Eighty-eight (88) cohort studies with a combined sample size of 1,042,448 perinatal women contributed to the meta-analysis. About 37% pregnant women who had AD, later had PPD. Those with AD had four times higher odds of developing PPD (OR: 4.58; 95% CI = 3.52-5.96). The odds of having PPD were higher when AD was observed in the first or third trimester compared to the second trimester. About 12.8% of PPD cases were attributable to AD. CONCLUSION The findings should inform future clinical guidelines on the screening, the frequency of screening, and follow-up care in maternal-mental health.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Vivi Leona Amelia
- School of Nursing, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan; Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto, Purwokerto, Central Java, Indonesia
| | - Mduduzi Colani Shongwe
- Department of Midwifery, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Eswatini, Mbabane, Eswatini
| | - Pi-Chen Chang
- School of Nursing, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Min-Huey Chung
- School of Nursing, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan.
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Garcia L, Pearce M, Abbas A, Mok A, Strain T, Ali S, Crippa A, Dempsey PC, Golubic R, Kelly P, Laird Y, McNamara E, Moore S, de Sa TH, Smith AD, Wijndaele K, Woodcock J, Brage S. Non-occupational physical activity and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and mortality outcomes: a dose-response meta-analysis of large prospective studies. Br J Sports Med 2023; 57:979-989. [PMID: 36854652 PMCID: PMC10423495 DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2022-105669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 03/02/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate the dose-response associations between non-occupational physical activity and several chronic disease and mortality outcomes in the general adult population. DESIGN Systematic review and cohort-level dose-response meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and reference lists of published studies. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Prospective cohort studies with (1) general population samples >10 000 adults, (2) ≥3 physical activity categories, and (3) risk measures and CIs for all-cause mortality or incident total cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, total cancer and site-specific cancers (head and neck, myeloid leukaemia, myeloma, gastric cardia, lung, liver, endometrium, colon, breast, bladder, rectum, oesophagus, prostate, kidney). RESULTS 196 articles were included, covering 94 cohorts with >30 million participants. The evidence base was largest for all-cause mortality (50 separate results; 163 415 543 person-years, 811 616 events), and incidence of cardiovascular disease (37 results; 28 884 209 person-years, 74 757 events) and cancer (31 results; 35 500 867 person-years, 185 870 events). In general, higher activity levels were associated with lower risk of all outcomes. Differences in risk were greater between 0 and 8.75 marginal metabolic equivalent of task-hours per week (mMET-hours/week) (equivalent to the recommended 150 min/week of moderate-to-vigorous aerobic physical activity), with smaller marginal differences in risk above this level to 17.5 mMET-hours/week, beyond which additional differences were small and uncertain. Associations were stronger for all-cause (relative risk (RR) at 8.75 mMET-hours/week: 0.69, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.73) and cardiovascular disease (RR at 8.75 mMET-hours/week: 0.71, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.77) mortality than for cancer mortality (RR at 8.75 mMET-hours/week: 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89). If all insufficiently active individuals had achieved 8.75 mMET-hours/week, 15.7% (95% CI 13.1 to 18.2) of all premature deaths would have been averted. CONCLUSIONS Inverse non-linear dose-response associations suggest substantial protection against a range of chronic disease outcomes from small increases in non-occupational physical activity in inactive adults. PROSPERO registration number CRD42018095481.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leandro Garcia
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Matthew Pearce
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ali Abbas
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - Alexander Mok
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore
| | - Tessa Strain
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sara Ali
- University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - Alessio Crippa
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Paddy C Dempsey
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
- Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Rajna Golubic
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
- Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Paul Kelly
- Physical Activity for Health Research Centre, University of Edinburgh Institute for Sport, Physical Education and Health Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Yvonne Laird
- Sydney School of Public Health, Prevention Research Collaboration, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Eoin McNamara
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
- Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Samuel Moore
- University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - Thiago Herick de Sa
- Center for Epidemiological Research in Nutrition and Health, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Andrea D Smith
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Behavioural Science and Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Katrien Wijndaele
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - James Woodcock
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
| | - Soren Brage
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK
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Yang Z, Wu Y, Xu L, Zhu Z, Li T, Yu L, Gao K, Zhang X, Shen P, Lin H, Shui L, Tang M, Jin M, Sun Y, Wang J, Chen K. Age at diagnosis modifies associations of type 2 diabetes with cancer incidence and mortality: a retrospective matched-cohort study. Diabetologia 2023; 66:1450-1459. [PMID: 37178138 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-023-05920-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS The age-specific associations between type 2 diabetes and cancer risk are not fully understood. The aim of this study was to assess how age at diagnosis modifies the associations between type 2 diabetes and cancer risk. METHODS We used data from the Yinzhou Health Information System, and included 42,279 individuals who were newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between 2010 and 2014, as well as 166,010 age- and sex-matched control individuals without diabetes who were selected randomly from the electronic health records of the entire population. Patients were divided into four age groups according to age at diagnosis: <50, 50-59, 60-69 and ≥70 years. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models, with age as the time scale, were used to estimate the HRs and 95% CIs for the associations of type 2 diabetes with the risks of overall and site-specific cancers. Population-attributable fractions were also calculated for outcomes associated with type 2 diabetes. RESULTS During median follow-up periods of 9.20 and 9.32 years, we identified 15,729 incident cancer cases and 5383 cancer deaths, respectively. Patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes before 50 years of age had the highest relative risks of cancer incidence and mortality, with HRs (95% CI) of 1.35 (1.20, 1.52) for overall cancer incidence, 1.39 (1.11, 1.73) for gastrointestinal cancer incidence, 2.02 (1.50, 2.71) for overall cancer mortality, and 2.82 (1.91, 4.18) for gastrointestinal cancer mortality. Risk estimates decreased gradually with each decade increase in diagnostic age. The population-attributable fractions for overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer mortality also decreased with increasing age. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION The associations of type 2 diabetes with cancer incidence and mortality varied by age at diagnosis, with a higher relative risk among patients who were diagnosed at a younger age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zongming Yang
- Department of Public Health, and Department of National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yonghao Wu
- Department of Public Health, and Department of National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Lisha Xu
- Department of Public Health, and Department of National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zhanghang Zhu
- Department of Public Health, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tiezheng Li
- Department of Public Health, and Department of National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Luhua Yu
- Department of Public Health, and Department of National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Kai Gao
- Department of Public Health, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xinhan Zhang
- Department of Public Health, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Peng Shen
- Department of Chronic Disease and Health Promotion, Yinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China
| | - Hongbo Lin
- Department of Chronic Disease and Health Promotion, Yinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China
| | - Liming Shui
- Yinzhou District Health Bureau of Ningbo, Ningbo, China
| | - Mengling Tang
- Department of Public Health, Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Mingjuan Jin
- Department of Public Health, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yexiang Sun
- Data Center, Yinzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China.
| | - Jianbing Wang
- Department of Public Health, and Department of National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, The Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
| | - Kun Chen
- Department of Public Health, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
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10
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Mulligan MD, Murphy R, Reddin C, Judge C, Ferguson J, Alvarez-Iglesias A, McGrath ER, O’Donnell MJ. Population attributable fraction of hypertension for dementia: global, regional, and national estimates for 186 countries. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 60:102012. [PMID: 37261323 PMCID: PMC10227413 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Revised: 04/30/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Quantifying the proportion of dementia attributable to highly prevalent modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension, is important in informing effective dementia prevention strategies. We aim to quantify the population attributable fraction (PAF) of hypertension for dementia (the proportion of dementia cases that would not occur if hypertension was eliminated) at global, regional, and national levels. Methods In this study, we searched international and governmental websites for global, regional, and national data reporting population hypertension (according to 10-year age categories) and dementia prevalence. MEDLINE was searched for studies reporting the risk of dementia from age at hypertension diagnosis from database inception to December 31, 2022. Longitudinal observational studies with >500 participants reporting hazard ratios by age at hypertension diagnosis for risk of future all-cause dementia were eligible for inclusion. Studies excluded had cross-sectional methodology, specific vascular dementia or 'cognitive impairment' outcomes, and no age-specific metrics of association reported. The PAF of hypertension for dementia was calculated globally and for each country and region worldwide. Findings Data from the Global Burden of Disease, United Nations Population Prospectus, NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, UK Biobank, and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study were obtained. 186 countries reported dementia and hypertension prevalence data. The global PAF of hypertension for dementia was 15.8% [95% Credible Interval (CI), 8.8%-22.7%]. Latin America and the Caribbean (18.0% [95% CI, 9.4%-26.6%]), and Europe (17.2% [95% CI, 9.6%-24.7%]) had the highest PAF of hypertension for dementia. Hypertension diagnosed between the ages of 30-44 had the highest age-specific global attributable fraction for dementia (8.4% [95% CI, 3.4%-13.5%]), followed by ages 45-54 (2.92% [ 95% CI, 0.96%-4.88%]), 55-64 (2.59% [95% CI, 1.15%-4.03%]) and 65-74 (1.82% [95% CI, -2.31%-5.96%]). Interpretation The population attributable risk of hypertension for dementia is 15.8%, suggesting that optimal detection and treatment, particularly at midlife, has the potential to markedly reduce the global burden of dementia. Funding Wellcome Trust; Health Research Board of Ireland; Alzheimer's Association.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin D. Mulligan
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - Robert Murphy
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - Catriona Reddin
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - Conor Judge
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - John Ferguson
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - Alberto Alvarez-Iglesias
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - Emer R. McGrath
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
| | - Martin J. O’Donnell
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, University Road, Galway, H91TK33, Ireland
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11
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Variation in smoking attributable all-cause mortality across municipalities in Belgium, 2018: application of a Bayesian approach for small area estimations. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:1699. [PMID: 36071426 PMCID: PMC9451124 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14067-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Smoking is one of the leading causes of preventable mortality and morbidity worldwide, with the European Region having the highest prevalence of tobacco smoking among adults compared to other WHO regions. The Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) provides a reliable source of national and regional estimates of smoking prevalence; however, currently there are no estimates at a smaller geographical resolution such as the municipality scale in Belgium. This hinders the estimation of the spatial distribution of smoking attributable mortality at small geographical scale (i.e., number of deaths that can be attributed to tobacco). The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of smoking prevalence in each Belgian municipality using BHIS and calculate smoking attributable mortality at municipality level. METHODS Data of participants aged 15 + on smoking behavior, age, gender, educational level and municipality of residence were obtained from the BHIS 2018. A Bayesian hierarchical Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) model was used to model the logit transformation of the design-based Horvitz-Thompson direct prevalence estimates. Municipality-level variables obtained from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office, were used as auxiliary variables in the model. Model parameters were estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Conditional Predictive Ordinate (CPO) were computed to assess model fit. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed using the estimated prevalence of smoking in each of the 589 Belgian municipalities and relative risks obtained from published meta-analyses. Smoking attributable mortality was calculated by multiplying PAF with age-gender standardized and stratified number of deaths in each municipality. RESULTS BHIS 2018 data included 7,829 respondents from 154 municipalities. Smoothed estimates for current smoking ranged between 11% [Credible Interval 3;23] and 27% [21;34] per municipality, and for former smoking between 4% [0;14] and 34% [21;47]. Estimates of smoking attributable mortality constituted between 10% [7;15] and 47% [34;59] of total number of deaths per municipality. CONCLUSIONS Within-country variation in smoking and smoking attributable mortality was observed. Computed estimates should inform local public health prevention campaigns as well as contribute to explaining the regional differences in mortality.
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12
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He H, Guo P, He J, Zhang J, Niu Y, Chen S, Guo F, Liu F, Zhang R, Li Q, Ma S, Zhang B, Pan L, Shan G, Zhang M. Prevalence of hyperuricemia and the population attributable fraction of modifiable risk factors: Evidence from a general population cohort in China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:936717. [PMID: 35968481 PMCID: PMC9366258 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.936717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 07/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Data on updated hyperuricemia prevalence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China, which is one of the world-class urban agglomerations, is sparse. Overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking and sedentary behavior are modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for elevated serum uric acid (SUA), but their population attributable fractions (PAFs) for hyperuricemia is still unclear. Using baseline data from the BTH Physical Examination General Population Cohort, we calculated the crude- and adjusted-prevalence of hyperuricemia based on the 30,158 participants aged 18–80 years. Hyperuricemia was defined as SUA >420 μmol/L in men and >360 μmol/L in women, or currently use of uric acid lowering drugs. Overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking and sedentary behavior were considered as MRFs and their adjusted PAFs were estimated. The prevalence of hyperuricemia was 19.37%, 27.72% in men and 10.69% in women. The PAFs and 95% confidence intervals for overweight, obesity were 16.25% (14.26–18.25%) and 12.08% (11.40–12.77%) in men, 13.95% (12.31–15.59%) and 6.35% (5.97–6.74%) in women, respectively. Alcohol consumption can explain 4.64% (2.72–6.56%) hyperuricemia cases in men, but with no statistical significance in women. Cigarette smoking contributed to 3.15% (1.09–5.21%) cases in men, but a much lower fraction in women (0.85%, 0.49–1.22%). Compared with sedentary time <2 h per day, the PAFs of 2–4 h, 4–6 h, and more than 6 h per day were 3.14% (1.34–4.93%), 6.72% (4.44–8.99%) and 8.04% (4.95–11.13%) in men, respectively. Sedentary time was not found to be associated with hyperuricemia in women. These findings concluded that hyperuricemia is prevalent in this representative Chinese adult general population with substantial sex difference. Four MRFs (overweight/obesity, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and sedentary behavior) accounted for a notable proportion of hyperuricemia cases. The PAF estimations enable the exploration of the expected proportion of hyperuricemia cases that could be prevented if the MRFs were removed, which warrants the public health significance of life-style intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huijing He
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Pei Guo
- School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Jiangshan He
- School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Jingbo Zhang
- Beijing Physical Examination Center, Beijing, China
| | - Yujie Niu
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, Shijiazhuang, China
- Department of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Shuo Chen
- Beijing Physical Examination Center, Beijing, China
| | - Fenghua Guo
- School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Feng Liu
- Beijing Physical Examination Center, Beijing, China
| | - Rong Zhang
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, Shijiazhuang, China
- Department of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Qiang Li
- Beijing Physical Examination Center, Beijing, China
| | - Shitao Ma
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, Shijiazhuang, China
- Department of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Binbin Zhang
- School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
| | - Li Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Guangliang Shan
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Minying Zhang
| | - Minying Zhang
- School of Medicine, Nankai University, Tianjin, China
- Guangliang Shan
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13
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Pearce M, Garcia L, Abbas A, Strain T, Schuch FB, Golubic R, Kelly P, Khan S, Utukuri M, Laird Y, Mok A, Smith A, Tainio M, Brage S, Woodcock J. Association Between Physical Activity and Risk of Depression: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Psychiatry 2022; 79:550-559. [PMID: 35416941 PMCID: PMC9008579 DOI: 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.0609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 286] [Impact Index Per Article: 143.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Importance Depression is the leading cause of mental health-related disease burden and may be reduced by physical activity, but the dose-response relationship between activity and depression is uncertain. Objective To systematically review and meta-analyze the dose-response association between physical activity and incident depression from published prospective studies of adults. Data Sources PubMed, SCOPUS, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and the reference lists of systematic reviews retrieved by a systematic search up to December 11, 2020, with no language limits. The date of the search was November 12, 2020. Study Selection We included prospective cohort studies reporting physical activity at 3 or more exposure levels and risk estimates for depression with 3000 or more adults and 3 years or longer of follow-up. Data Extraction and Synthesis Data extraction was completed independently by 2 extractors and cross-checked for errors. A 2-stage random-effects dose-response meta-analysis was used to synthesize data. Study-specific associations were estimated using generalized least-squares regression and the pooled association was estimated by combining the study-specific coefficients using restricted maximum likelihood. Main Outcomes and Measures The outcome of interest was depression, including (1) presence of major depressive disorder indicated by self-report of physician diagnosis, registry data, or diagnostic interviews and (2) elevated depressive symptoms established using validated cutoffs for a depressive screening instrument. Results Fifteen studies comprising 191 130 participants and 2 110 588 person-years were included. An inverse curvilinear dose-response association between physical activity and depression was observed, with steeper association gradients at lower activity volumes; heterogeneity was large and significant (I2 = 74%; P < .001). Relative to adults not reporting any activity, those accumulating half the recommended volume of physical activity (4.4 marginal metabolic equivalent task hours per week [mMET-h/wk]) had 18% (95% CI, 13%-23%) lower risk of depression. Adults accumulating the recommended volume of 8.8 mMET hours per week had 25% (95% CI, 18%-32%) lower risk with diminishing potential benefits and higher uncertainty observed beyond that exposure level. There were diminishing additional potential benefits and greater uncertainty at higher volumes of physical activity. Based on an estimate of exposure prevalences among included cohorts, if less active adults had achieved the current physical activity recommendations, 11.5% (95% CI, 7.7%-15.4%) of depression cases could have been prevented. Conclusions and Relevance This systematic review and meta-analysis of associations between physical activity and depression suggests significant mental health benefits from being physically active, even at levels below the public health recommendations. Health practitioners should therefore encourage any increase in physical activity to improve mental health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Pearce
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
| | - Leandro Garcia
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
- Centre for Public Health, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland
| | - Ali Abbas
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
| | - Tessa Strain
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
| | - Felipe Barreto Schuch
- Department of Sports Methods and Techniques, Federal University of Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | - Rajna Golubic
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
- Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, England
| | - Paul Kelly
- Physical Activity for Health Research Centre, Institute of Sport Physical Education and Health Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Saad Khan
- University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Treatment Centre, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, England
| | - Mrudula Utukuri
- University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Treatment Centre, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, England
| | - Yvonne Laird
- Prevention Research Collaboration, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Alexander Mok
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore
| | - Andrea Smith
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
| | - Marko Tainio
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
- Sustainable Urban Programme, The Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Søren Brage
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
| | - James Woodcock
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England
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14
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Esterov D, Witkowski J, McCall DM, Wi CI, Weaver AL, Brown AW. Risk factors for development of long-term mood and anxiety disorder after pediatric traumatic brain injury: a population-based, birth cohort analysis. Brain Inj 2022; 36:722-732. [PMID: 35604956 PMCID: PMC10364060 DOI: 10.1080/02699052.2022.2077987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to identify characteristics associated with an increased risk of anxiety and mood disorder prior to 25 years of age, in children who sustained a traumatic brain injury (TBI) prior to age 10. METHODS This population-based study identified 562 TBI cases from a 1976-1982 birth cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota. TBI cases were manually confirmed and classified by injury severity. Separate Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit to estimate the association of TBI and secondary non-TBI related characteristics with the risk of a subsequent clinically determined anxiety or mood disorder. Multivariable-adjusted population attributable risk (PAR) estimates were calculated for TBI characteristics. RESULTS Older age at initial TBI and extracranial injury at time of initial TBI were significantly associated with an increased risk of anxiety (adjusted HR [95% CI]: 1.33 [1.16, 1.52] per 1-year increase and 2.41 [1.26, 4.59]), respectively. Older age at initial TBI was significantly associated with an increased risk of a mood disorder (adjusted HR 1.17 [1.08-1.27]). CONCLUSION In individuals sustaining a TBI prior to age 10, age at injury greater than 5 years old was the largest contributor to development of a mood or anxiety disorder.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dmitry Esterov
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Julie Witkowski
- Mayo Clinic, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Dana M McCall
- Mayo Clinic, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Chung-Il Wi
- Department of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Amy L Weaver
- Division of Clinical Trials and Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Allen W Brown
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
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15
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Castro A, Röösli M, de Hoogh K, Kappeler R, Kutlar Joss M, Vienneau D, Künzli N. Methods Matter: A Comparative Review of Health Risk Assessments for Ambient Air Pollution in Switzerland. Public Health Rev 2022; 43:1604431. [PMID: 35465140 PMCID: PMC9020261 DOI: 10.3389/phrs.2022.1604431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Accepted: 03/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives: Air pollution health risk assessments (AP-HRAs) provide a method to quantify health effects for entire populations. In Switzerland, AP-HRAs are included in Swiss assessments for Transport Externalities (STEs), ordered by public authorities since the 1990s. This study aimed to describe the differences among national and international AP-HRAs for Switzerland. Methods: We compared input data, approaches and results across AP-HRAs over time. Results and input data for each AP-HRA were expressed as a ratio compared to the most recent STE (in most cases STE-2010). Results: Substantial variation across AP-HRAs was found. For all-cause adult mortality attributed to particulate matter (the most frequent outcome-pollutant pair), the ratio in HRAs oscillated from 0.40 to 2.09 (times the STE-2010 value). Regarding input data, the ratio ranged from 0.69 to 1.26 for population exposure, from 0 to 1.81 for counterfactual scenario, from 0.96 to 1.13 for concentration-response function and from 1.03 to 1.13 for baseline health data. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that methods matter for AP-HRAs. Transparent and possibly standardized reporting of key input data and assumptions should be promoted to facilitate comparison of AP-HRAs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto Castro
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland,*Correspondence: Alberto Castro,
| | - Martin Röösli
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland
| | - Ron Kappeler
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland
| | - Meltem Kutlar Joss
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland
| | - Danielle Vienneau
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland
| | - Nino Künzli
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Basel, Switzerland
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16
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Nguyen P, Ananthapavan J, Tan EJ, Crosland P, Bowe SJ, Gao L, Dunstan DW, Moodie M. Modelling the potential health and economic benefits of reducing population sitting time in Australia. Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act 2022; 19:28. [PMID: 35305678 PMCID: PMC8934131 DOI: 10.1186/s12966-022-01276-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 02/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Strong evidence indicates that excessive time spent sitting (sedentary behaviour) is detrimentally associated with multiple chronic diseases. Sedentary behaviour is prevalent among adults in Australia and has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating the potential health benefits and healthcare cost saving associated with reductions in population sitting time could be useful for the development of public health initiatives. METHODS A sedentary behaviour model was developed and incorporated into an existing proportional, multi-state, life table Markov model (ACE-Obesity Policy model). This model simulates the 2019 Australian population (age 18 years and above) and estimates the incidence, prevalence and mortality of five diseases associated with sedentary behaviour (type 2 diabetes, stroke, endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer). Key model inputs included population sitting time estimates from the Australian National Health Survey 2014-2015, healthcare cost data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2015) and relative risk estimates assessed by conducting literature reviews and meta-analyses. Scenario analyses estimated the potential change in disease incidence as a result of changes in population sitting time. This, in turn, resulted in estimated improvements in long term health outcomes (Health-adjusted life years (HALYs)) and healthcare cost-savings. RESULTS According to the model, if all Australian adults sat no more than 4 h per day, the total HALYs gained would be approximately 17,211 with health care cost savings of approximately A$185 million over one year. Under a more feasible scenario, where sitting time was reduced in adults who sit 4 or more hours per day by approximately 36 min per person per day (based on the results of the Stand Up Victoria randomised controlled trial), potential HALYs gained were estimated to be 3,670 and healthcare cost saving could reach A$39 million over one year. CONCLUSIONS Excessive sedentary time results in considerable population health burden in Australia. This paper describes the development of the first Australian sedentary behaviour model that can be used to predict the long term consequences of interventions targeted at reducing sedentary behaviour through reductions in sitting time. These estimates may be used by decision makers when prioritising healthcare resources and investing in preventative public health initiatives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Phuong Nguyen
- Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia.
- Global Obesity Centre, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia.
| | - Jaithri Ananthapavan
- Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
- Global Obesity Centre, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
| | - Eng Joo Tan
- Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
| | - Paul Crosland
- Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
| | - Steve J Bowe
- Biostatistics Unit, Faculty of Health, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia
| | - Lan Gao
- Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
- School of Biomedical Sciences and Pharmacy, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
| | - David W Dunstan
- Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Marj Moodie
- Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
- Global Obesity Centre, Deakin University, Institute for Health Transformation, Geelong, VIC, Australia
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Reyes-Sánchez F, Basto-Abreu A, Torres-Alvarez R, Canto-Osorio F, González-Morales R, Dyer-Leal DD, López-Ridaura R, Zaragoza-Jiménez CA, Rivera JA, Barrientos-Gutiérrez T. Fraction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths attributable to chronic diseases. Prev Med 2022; 155:106917. [PMID: 34921832 PMCID: PMC8674104 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2021] [Revised: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Evidence shows that chronic diseases are associated with COVID-19 severity and death. This study aims to estimate the fraction of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 attributable to chronic diseases associated to poor nutrition and smoking among adults who tested positive to COVID-19 in Mexico. We analyzed 1,006,541 adults aged ≥20 who tested positive for COVID-19 from March 23 to December 5, 2020. Six chronic diseases were considered: obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We calibrated the database using a bias quantification method to consider undiagnosed disease cases. To estimate the total impact of multiple diseases, we defined a multimorbidity variable according to the number of diseases. Risks of hospitalization and death were estimated with Poisson regression models and used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs). Chronic diseases accounted for to 25.4% [95% CI: 24.8%-26.1%], 28.3% (95% CI: 27.8%-28.7%) and 15.3% (95% CI: 14.9%-15.7%) of the hospitalizations among adults below 40, 40-59, and 60 years and older, respectively. For COVID-19-related deaths, 50.1% (95% CI: 48.6%-51.5%), 40.5% (95% CI: 39.7%-41.3%), and 18.7% (95% CI, 18.0%-19.5%) were attributable to chronic diseases in adults under 40, 40-59, and 60 years and older, respectively. Chronic diseases linked to poor nutrition and smoking could have contributed to a large burden of hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 in Mexico, particularly among younger adults. Medical and structural interventions to curb chronic disease incidence and facilitate disease control are urgently needed.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ana Basto-Abreu
- National Institute of Public Health, Population Health Research Center, Mexico.
| | | | | | | | | | - Ruy López-Ridaura
- Ministry of Health, National Center for Preventive Programs and Disease Control, Mexico
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Causer L, Liu B, Watts C, McManus H, Donovan B, Ward J, Guy R. Hospitalisations for pelvic inflammatory disease in young Aboriginal women living in remote Australia: the role of chlamydia and gonorrhoea. Sex Transm Infect 2021; 98:445-447. [PMID: 34887352 DOI: 10.1136/sextrans-2021-055242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 11/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Aboriginal women living in remote Australia experience a high burden of both chlamydia and gonorrhoea infections and disproportionately high rates of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). We estimated for the first time the fraction of PID attributable to these infections in young Aboriginal women living in these settings. METHODS Using published data from two large Australian studies (2002-2013; 2010-2014), we calculated the fraction of emergency department presentations and hospitalisations for PID attributable to chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea infection in Aboriginal women aged 16-29 years living in remote Australia. We used a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the mean and 95% CIs for the assumed prevalence and population attributable fractions for PID for infection stratifications (chlamydia only, gonorrhoea only and dual infection) as well as for any infection (chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea). Additional outputs were calculated for chlamydia infection with/without gonorrhoea coinfection, and vice versa. RESULTS The prevalence of chlamydia only was 12.9% (95% CI: 11.6% to 14.2%), gonorrhoea only was 7.8% (95% CI: 6.6% to 8.9%) and dual infection was 6.5% (95% CI: 5.8% to 7.2%); rate ratios of PID were 1.9 (95% CI: 1.5 to 2.3), 5.2 (95% CI: 4.3 to 6.4) and 4.6 (95% CI: 3.8 to 5.5), respectively. The overall fraction of PID attributable to chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea was 40.2% (95% CI: 36.0% to 44.4%); any gonorrhoea was 33.4% (95% CI: 29.2% to 37.8%) and any chlamydia was 20.6% (95% CI: 16.9% to 24.6%). CONCLUSION Our study demonstrates the importance of calculating the fraction of PID related to chlamydia and gonorrhoea in the local context, demonstrating the major contribution gonorrhoea makes to PID hospitalisations among Australian Aboriginal women living in remote settings. To significantly and sustainably reduce the unacceptable rate of PID in this population, strategies are urgently needed to improve timely testing and treatment and recognition and management of PID in primary care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Causer
- Kirby Institute, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Bette Liu
- School of Population Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Caroline Watts
- Kirby Institute, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Hamish McManus
- Kirby Institute, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Basil Donovan
- Kirby Institute, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Sydney Sexual Health Centre, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - James Ward
- Poche Centre for Indigenous Health, The University of Queensland-Saint Lucia Campus, Saint Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rebecca Guy
- Kirby Institute, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Fay E, Hugh O, Francis A, Katz R, Sitcov K, Souter V, Gardosi J. Customized GROW vs INTERGROWTH-21 st birthweight standards to identify small for gestational age associated perinatal outcomes at term. Am J Obstet Gynecol MFM 2021; 4:100545. [PMID: 34875415 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajogmf.2021.100545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Revised: 11/17/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fetal growth restriction is associated with stillbirth and other adverse pregnancy outcomes, and use of the correct weight standard is an essential proxy indicator of growth status and perinatal risk. OBJECTIVE We sought to assess the performance of two international birthweight standards for their ability to identify perinatal morbidity and mortality indicators associated with small for gestational age (SGA) infants at term. STUDY DESIGN This retrospective cohort study used data from a multi-center perinatal quality initiative including a multi-ethnic dataset of 125,826 births from 2012-2017. Of the singleton term births, 92,622 had complete outcome data including stillbirth, neonatal death, 5-minute Apgar <7, neonatal glucose instability and need for newborn transfer to a higher level of care or NICU admission. The customized (GROW) and INTERGROWTH-21st (IG21) birthweight standards were applied to determine SGA (<10th centile) according to their respective methods and formulae. Associations with adverse outcomes were expressed as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and population attributable fraction (PAF). RESULTS GROW classified 9,578 (10.3%) and IG21 classified 4,079 (4.4%) pregnancies as SGA, respectively. For all of the outcomes assessed, GROW identified more SGA infants with adverse outcomes than IG21, including more stillbirths, perinatal deaths, low Apgar scores, glucose instability, newborn seizure and transfers to a higher level of care. Thirteen of the 27 stillbirths (48%) that were SGA by either method were identified as SGA by GROW but not by IG21. Similarly, additional cases of all other adverse outcome indicators were identified by GROW as SGA, while only in one category (glucose instability) did IG21 identify 9 of 295 cases (3.1%) which were not identified as SGA by GROW. CONCLUSION Customized assessment using GROW results in increased identification of small for gestational age term babies that are at significantly increased risk of an array of adverse pregnancy outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Fay
- OB COAP, Foundation for Health Care Quality, Seattle WA 98104, USA; Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195, USA
| | - Oliver Hugh
- Perinatal Institute, Birmingham B15 3BU, United Kingdom
| | - Andre Francis
- Perinatal Institute, Birmingham B15 3BU, United Kingdom
| | - Ronit Katz
- Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195, USA
| | - Kristin Sitcov
- OB COAP, Foundation for Health Care Quality, Seattle WA 98104, USA
| | - Vivienne Souter
- OB COAP, Foundation for Health Care Quality, Seattle WA 98104, USA
| | - Jason Gardosi
- Perinatal Institute, Birmingham B15 3BU, United Kingdom.
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Evensen LH, Arnesen CAL, Rosendaal FR, Gabrielsen ME, Brumpton BM, Hveem K, Hansen JB, Brækkan SK. The risk of venous thromboembolism attributed to established prothrombotic genotypes. Thromb Haemost 2021; 122:1221-1230. [PMID: 34784644 DOI: 10.1055/a-1698-6717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The proportion of venous thromboembolism (VTE) events that can be attributed to established prothrombotic genotypes has been scarcely investigated in the general population. We aimed to estimate the proportion of VTEs in the population that could be attributed to established prothrombotic genotypes using a population-based case-cohort. METHODS Cases with incident VTE (n=1,493) and a randomly sampled sub-cohort (n=13,069) were derived from the Tromsø Study (1994-2012) and the Nord-Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study (1995-2008). DNA-samples were genotyped for 17 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) associated with VTE. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in Cox regression models. Population attributable fraction (PAF) with 95% bias-corrected CIs (based on 10,000 bootstrap samples) were estimated using a cumulative model where SNPs significantly associated with VTE were added one-by-one in ranked order of the individual PAFs. RESULTS Six SNPs were significantly associated with VTE (rs1799963 [Prothrombin], rs2066865 [FGG], rs6025 [FV Leiden], rs2289252 [F11], rs2036914 [F11] and rs8176719 [ABO]. The cumulative PAF for the six-SNP model was 45.3% (95% CI 19.7-71.6) for total VTE and 61.7% (95% CI 19.6-89.3) for unprovoked VTE. The PAF for prothrombotic genotypes was higher for DVT (52.9%) than for PE (33.8%), and higher for those aged <70 years (66.1%) than for those aged ≥70 years (24.9%). CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that 45-62% of all VTE events in the population can be attributed to known prothrombotic genotypes. The PAF of established prothrombotic genotypes was higher in DVT than in PE, and higher in the young than in the elderly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Line Holted Evensen
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway
| | - Carl Arne Lochen Arnesen
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway
| | - Frits R Rosendaal
- Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden Universitair Medisch Centrum, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Maiken Elvestad Gabrielsen
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Public Health and Nursing, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Ben Michael Brumpton
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Public Health and Nursing, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Kristian Hveem
- K.G. Jebsen Center for Genetic Epidemiology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - John-Bjarne Hansen
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway
| | - Sigrid Kufaas Brækkan
- Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway
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McCaffrey N, Scollo M, Dean E, White SL. What is the likely impact on surgical site infections in Australian hospitals if smoking rates are reduced? A cost analysis. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0256424. [PMID: 34432843 PMCID: PMC8386862 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2020] [Accepted: 08/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Assisting smokers to quit before surgery reduces surgical site infection (SSI) risk. The short-term economic benefits of reducing SSIs by embedding tobacco dependence treatment in Australian hospitals are unknown. Estimated annual number of SSIs prevented, and hospital bed-days (HBD) and costs saved from reducing smoking before surgery are calculated. METHODS The most recent number of surgical procedures and SSI rates for Australia were sourced. The number of smokers and non-smokers having a SSI were calculated using the UK Royal College of Physicians reported adjusted odds ratio (1.79), and the proportion of SSIs attributable to smoking calculated. The potential impact fraction was used to estimate reductions in SSIs and associated HBDs and costs from reducing the smoking rates among surgical patients from 23.9% to 10% or 5% targets. Uncertainty around the final estimates was calculated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS In 2016-17, approximately 40,593 (95% UI 32,543, 50,239) people having a surgical procedure in Australia experienced a SSI leading to 101,888 extra days (95% UI 49,988, 200,822) in hospital. If the smoking rate among surgical patients was reduced to 10%, 3,580 (95% UI 2,312, 5,178) SSIs would be prevented, and 8,985 (95% UI 4,094, 19,153) HBDs and $19.1M (95% UI $7.7M, $42.5M) saved in one year. If the smoking rate was reduced to 5%, 4,867 (95% UI 3,268, 6,867) SSIs would be prevented, and 12,217 (95% UI 5,614, 25,642) HBDs and $26.0M (95% UI $10.8M, $57.0M) would be saved. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest achieving smoking rate targets of 10% or 5% would provide substantial short-term health and economic benefits through reductions in SSIs. Embedding tobacco dependence treatment in Australian hospitals would provide value for money by reducing costs and improving clinical quality and safety. A more comprehensive, modelled economic evaluation synthesising the best available evidence is needed to confirm findings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikki McCaffrey
- Deakin Health Economics, School of Health & Social Development, Centre for Population Health Research, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia
- Quit, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michelle Scollo
- Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emma Dean
- Quit, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Population Health, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sarah L. White
- Quit, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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22
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Topless RKG, Major TJ, Florez JC, Hirschhorn JN, Cadzow M, Dalbeth N, Stamp LK, Wilcox PL, Reynolds RJ, Cole JB, Merriman TR. The comparative effect of exposure to various risk factors on the risk of hyperuricaemia: diet has a weak causal effect. Arthritis Res Ther 2021; 23:75. [PMID: 33663556 PMCID: PMC7931603 DOI: 10.1186/s13075-021-02444-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2020] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prevention of hyperuricaemia (HU) is critical to the prevention of gout. Understanding causal relationships and relative contributions of various risk factors to hyperuricemia is therefore important in the prevention of gout. Here, we use attributable fraction to compare the relative contribution of genetic, dietary, urate-lowering therapy (ULT) and other exposures to HU. We use Mendelian randomisation to test for the causality of diet in urate levels. METHODS Four European-ancestry sample sets, three from the general population (n = 419,060) and one of people with gout (n = 6781) were derived from the Database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (ARIC, FHS, CARDIA, CHS) and UK Biobank. Dichotomised exposures to diet, genetic risk variants, BMI, alcohol, diuretic treatment, sex and age were used to calculate adjusted population and average attributable fractions (PAF/AAF) for HU (≥0.42 mmol/L [≥7 mg/dL]). Exposure to ULT was also assessed in the gout cohort. Two sample Mendelian randomisation was done in the UK Biobank using dietary pattern-associated genetic variants as exposure and serum urate levels as outcome. RESULTS Adherence to dietary recommendations, BMI (< 25 kg/m2), and absence of the SLC2A9 rs12498742 urate-raising allele produced PAFs for HU of 20 to 24%, 59 to 69%, and 57 to 64%, respectively, in the three non-gout cohorts. In the gout cohort, diet, BMI, SLC2A9 rs12498742 and ULT PAFs for HU were 12%, 49%, 48%, and 63%, respectively. Mendelian randomisation demonstrated weak causal effects of four dietary habits on serum urate levels (e.g. preferentially drinking skim milk increased urate, β = 0.047 mmol/L, P = 3.78 × 10-8). These effects were mediated by BMI, and they were not significant (P ≥ 0.06) in multivariable models assessing the BMI-independent effect of diet on urate. CONCLUSIONS Diet has a relatively minor role in determining serum urate levels and HU. In gout, the use of ULT was the largest attributable fraction tested for HU.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruth K. G. Topless
- grid.29980.3a0000 0004 1936 7830Department of Biochemistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Tanya J. Major
- grid.29980.3a0000 0004 1936 7830Department of Biochemistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Jose C. Florez
- grid.66859.34Programs in Metabolism and Medical & Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA USA ,grid.32224.350000 0004 0386 9924Diabetes Unit and Center for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA USA ,grid.38142.3c000000041936754XDepartment of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA USA
| | - Joel N. Hirschhorn
- grid.66859.34Programs in Metabolism and Medical & Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA USA ,grid.2515.30000 0004 0378 8438Division of Endocrinology and Center for Basic and Translational Obesity Research, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA USA ,grid.38142.3c000000041936754XDepartment of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA USA
| | - Murray Cadzow
- grid.29980.3a0000 0004 1936 7830Department of Biochemistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Nicola Dalbeth
- grid.9654.e0000 0004 0372 3343Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Lisa K. Stamp
- grid.29980.3a0000 0004 1936 7830Department of Medicine, University of Otago Christchurch, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Philip L. Wilcox
- grid.29980.3a0000 0004 1936 7830Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Richard J. Reynolds
- grid.265892.20000000106344187Division of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, University of Alabama Birmingham, Birmingham, AL USA
| | - Joanne B. Cole
- grid.66859.34Programs in Metabolism and Medical & Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA USA ,grid.32224.350000 0004 0386 9924Diabetes Unit and Center for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA USA ,grid.2515.30000 0004 0378 8438Division of Endocrinology and Center for Basic and Translational Obesity Research, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA USA
| | - Tony R. Merriman
- grid.29980.3a0000 0004 1936 7830Department of Biochemistry, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand ,grid.265892.20000000106344187Division of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, University of Alabama Birmingham, Birmingham, AL USA
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Mutlak D, Khalil J, Lessick J, Kehat I, Agmon Y, Aronson D. Risk Factors for the Development of Functional Tricuspid Regurgitation and Their Population-Attributable Fractions. JACC Cardiovasc Imaging 2020; 13:1643-1651. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jcmg.2020.01.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2019] [Revised: 12/02/2019] [Accepted: 01/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
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Sato Y, Yoshioka E, Saijo Y, Miyamoto T, Sengoku K, Azuma H, Tanahashi Y, Ito Y, Kobayashi S, Minatoya M, Bamai YA, Yamazaki K, Itoh S, Miyashita C, Araki A, Kishi R. Population Attributable Fractions of Modifiable Risk Factors for Nonsyndromic Orofacial Clefts: A Prospective Cohort Study From the Japan Environment and Children's Study. J Epidemiol 2020; 31:272-279. [PMID: 32336698 PMCID: PMC7940975 DOI: 10.2188/jea.je20190347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Population impact of modifiable risk factors on orofacial clefts is still unknown. This study aimed to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) of modifiable risk factors for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL±P) and cleft palate only (CP) in Japan. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study using data from the Japan Environment and Children’s Study, which recruited pregnant women from 2011 to 2014. We estimated the PAFs of maternal alcohol consumption, psychological distress, maternal active and passive smoking, abnormal body mass index (BMI) (<18.5 and ≥25 kg/m2), and non-use of a folic acid supplement during pregnancy for nonsyndromic CL±P and CP in babies. Results A total of 94,174 pairs of pregnant women and their single babies were included. Among them, there were 146 nonsyndromic CL±P cases and 41 nonsyndromic CP cases. The combined adjusted PAF for CL±P of the modifiable risk factors excluding maternal alcohol consumption was 34.3%. Only maternal alcohol consumption was not associated with CL±P risk. The adjusted PAFs for CL±P of psychological distress, maternal active and passive smoking, abnormal BMI, and non-use of a folic acid supplement were 1.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], −10.7 to 15.1%), 9.9% (95% CI, −7.0 to 26.9%), 10.8% (95% CI, −9.9 to 30.3%), 2.4% (95% CI, −7.5 to 14.0%), and 15.1% (95% CI, −17.8 to 41.0%), respectively. We could not obtain PAFs for CP due to the small sample size. Conclusions We reported the population impact of the modifiable risk factors on CL±P, but not CP. This study might be useful in planning the primary prevention of CL±P.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yukihiro Sato
- Division of Public Health and Epidemiology, Department of Social Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University
| | - Eiji Yoshioka
- Division of Public Health and Epidemiology, Department of Social Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University
| | - Yasuaki Saijo
- Division of Public Health and Epidemiology, Department of Social Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University
| | | | - Kazuo Sengoku
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Asahikawa Medical University
| | - Hiroshi Azuma
- Department of Pediatrics, Asahikawa Medical University
| | | | - Yoshiya Ito
- Faculty of Nursing, Japanese Red Cross Hokkaido College of Nursing
| | | | | | - Yu Ait Bamai
- Center for Environmental and Health Sciences, Hokkaido University
| | - Keiko Yamazaki
- Center for Environmental and Health Sciences, Hokkaido University
| | - Sachiko Itoh
- Center for Environmental and Health Sciences, Hokkaido University
| | | | - Atsuko Araki
- Center for Environmental and Health Sciences, Hokkaido University
| | - Reiko Kishi
- Center for Environmental and Health Sciences, Hokkaido University
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Khomenko S, Nieuwenhuijsen M, Ambròs A, Wegener S, Mueller N. Is a liveable city a healthy city? Health impacts of urban and transport planning in Vienna, Austria. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 183:109238. [PMID: 32062485 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2019] [Revised: 01/13/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Each year, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) computes the Global Liveability Index and determines the most liveable cities around the world. Vienna, Austria, was ranked by the EIU as the most liveable city worldwide in 2018 and 2019. However, the relationship between a liveable as well as healthy and environmentally-just city has not been previously explored. To explore whether the most liveable city is also a healthy and environmentally-just one, we estimated the premature mortality burden related to non-compliance with international exposure level recommendations for physical activity (PA), air pollution (PM2.5 and NO2), road traffic noise, green space and heat for Vienna, as well as its distribution by socioeconomic status (SES). We applied the Urban and TranspOrt Planning Health Impact Assessment (UTOPHIA) methodology and estimated the annual mortality, life expectancy (LE) and economic impact of non-compliance with exposure guidelines for the Viennese adult population ≥ 20 years. We compared current with recommended exposure levels, quantified the association between exposures and mortality and calculated attributable health impact fractions. Eight percent of premature mortality (i.e. 1239 deaths, 95% CI: 679-1784) was estimated to be attributable to non-compliance with the recommended exposure levels. Seventy-six percent of the attributable premature mortality was due to PM2.5 exposure and insufficient PA. Non-compliance also resulted in an average of 199 days of LE lost for the adult population (95% CI: 111-280) and an economic impact of 4.6 (95% CI: 2.5-6.7) billion 2015€ annually. Overall, residents of lower SES neighbourhoods faced higher risk of premature mortality due to higher exposure to NO2, road traffic noise, heat and less green space. Despite high liveability standards according to EIU definition, a considerable premature mortality burden was attributable to non-compliance with exposure recommendations, and socioeconomic inequalities were estimated. Although the exposure attributable mortality burden was lower than in other European cities and local Viennese policies favour the reduction of motorized traffic, alongside the promotion of active and public transport and urban greening, there is room for further alignment of liveability, environmental health and justice objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sasha Khomenko
- Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences (FHML), Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Mark Nieuwenhuijsen
- Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.
| | - Albert Ambròs
- Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Sandra Wegener
- Institute for Transport Studies, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Natalie Mueller
- Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
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Dregan A, McNeill A, Gaughran F, Jones PB, Bazley A, Cross S, Lillywhite K, Armstrong D, Smith S, Osborn DPJ, Stewart R, Wykes T, Hotopf M. Potential gains in life expectancy from reducing amenable mortality among people diagnosed with serious mental illness in the United Kingdom. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0230674. [PMID: 32218598 PMCID: PMC7100972 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2019] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To estimate the potential gain in life expectancy from addressing modifiable risk factors for all-cause mortality (excluding suicide and deaths from accidents or violence) across specific serious mental illness (SMI) subgroups, namely schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, and bipolar disorders in a Western population. METHODS We have used relative risks from recent meta-analyses to estimate the population attribution fraction (PAF) due to specific modifiable risk factors known to be associated with all-cause mortality within SMI. The potential gain in life expectancy at birth, age 50 and age 65 years were assessed by estimating the combined effect of modifiable risk factors from different contextual levels (behavioural, healthcare, social) and accounting for the effectiveness of existing interventions tackling these factors. Projections for annual gain in life expectancy at birth during a two-decade was estimated using the Annual Percentage Change (APC) formula. The predicted estimates were based on mortality rates for year 2014-2015. RESULTS Based on the effectiveness of existing interventions targeting these modifiable risk factors, we estimated potential gain in life expectancy at birth of four (bipolar disorders), six (schizoaffective disorders), or seven years (schizophrenia). The gain in life expectancy at age 50 years was three (bipolar disorders) or five (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders) years. The projected gain in life expectancy at age 65 years was three (bipolar disorders) or four (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders) years. CONCLUSIONS The implementation of existing interventions targeting modifiable risk factors could narrow the current mortality gap between the general and the SMI populations by 24% (men) to 28% (women). These projections represent ideal circumstances and without the limitation of overestimation which often comes with PAFs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Dregan
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ann McNeill
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Fiona Gaughran
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
- South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Peter B. Jones
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Anna Bazley
- South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sean Cross
- South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kate Lillywhite
- South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and London, London, United Kingdom
| | - David Armstrong
- School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shubulade Smith
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - David P. J. Osborn
- Division of Psychiatry, Faculty of Brain Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robert Stewart
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
- South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Til Wykes
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew Hotopf
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, United Kingdom
- South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and London, London, United Kingdom
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Mueller N, Rojas-Rueda D, Khreis H, Cirach M, Andrés D, Ballester J, Bartoll X, Daher C, Deluca A, Echave C, Milà C, Márquez S, Palou J, Pérez K, Tonne C, Stevenson M, Rueda S, Nieuwenhuijsen M. Changing the urban design of cities for health: The superblock model. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 134:105132. [PMID: 31515043 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2019] [Revised: 08/20/2019] [Accepted: 08/26/2019] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Car-dependent city planning has resulted in high levels of environmental pollution, sedentary lifestyles and increased vulnerability to the effects of climate change. The Barcelona Superblock model is an innovative urban and transport planning strategy that aims to reclaim public space for people, reduce motorized transport, promote sustainable mobility and active lifestyles, provide urban greening and mitigate effects of climate change. We estimated the health impacts of implementing this urban model across Barcelona. METHODS We carried out a quantitative health impact assessment (HIA) study for Barcelona residents ≥20 years (N = 1,301,827) on the projected Superblock area level (N = 503), following the comparative risk assessment methodology. We 1) estimated expected changes in (a) transport-related physical activity (PA), (b) air pollution (NO2), (c) road traffic noise, (d) green space, and (e) reduction of the urban heat island (UHI) effect through heat reductions; 2) scaled available risk estimates; and 3) calculated attributable health impact fractions. Estimated endpoints were preventable premature mortality, changes in life expectancy and economic impacts. RESULTS We estimated that 667 premature deaths (95% CI: 235-1,098) could be prevented annually through implementing the 503 Superblocks. The greatest number of preventable deaths could be attributed to reductions in NO2 (291, 95% PI: 0-838), followed by noise (163, 95% CI: 83-246), heat (117, 95% CI: 101-137), and green space development (60, 95% CI: 0-119). Increased PA for an estimated 65,000 persons shifting car/motorcycle trips to public and active transport resulted in 36 preventable deaths (95% CI: 26-50). The Superblocks were estimated to result in an average increase in life expectancy for the Barcelona adult population of almost 200 days (95% CI: 99-297), and result in an annual economic impact of 1.7 billion EUR (95% CI: 0.6-2.8). DISCUSSION The Barcelona Superblocks were estimated to help reduce harmful environmental exposures (i.e. air pollution, noise, and heat) while simultaneously increase PA levels and access to green space, and thereby provide substantial health benefits. For an equitable distribution of health benefits, the Superblocks should be implemented consistently across the entire city. Similar health benefits are expected for other cities that face similar challenges of environmental pollution, climate change vulnerability and low PA levels, by adopting the Barcelona Superblock model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie Mueller
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - David Rojas-Rueda
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Haneen Khreis
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI), College Station, TX, USA; Center for Advancing Research in Transportation Emissions, Energy, and Health (CARTEEH), College Station, TX, USA
| | - Marta Cirach
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - David Andrés
- Agència d'Ecologia Urbana de Barcelona (BCNEcologia), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Xavier Bartoll
- Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB), Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigació Biomédica (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carolyn Daher
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Anna Deluca
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Cynthia Echave
- Agència d'Ecologia Urbana de Barcelona (BCNEcologia), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carles Milà
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Sandra Márquez
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Joan Palou
- Agència d'Ecologia Urbana de Barcelona (BCNEcologia), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Katherine Pérez
- Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB), Barcelona, Spain; Institut d'Investigació Biomédica (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Mark Stevenson
- Melbourne School of Design/Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Australia
| | - Salvador Rueda
- Agència d'Ecologia Urbana de Barcelona (BCNEcologia), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Nieuwenhuijsen
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.
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A Review of Methodological Approaches for Developing Diagnostic Algorithms for Diabetes Screening. J Nurs Meas 2019; 27:433-457. [PMID: 31871284 DOI: 10.1891/1061-3749.27.3.433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Diagnostic algorithms are invaluable tools for screening diabetes. This review aimed to evaluate and identify the most robust methodological approaches for developing diagnostic algorithms for screening diabetes. METHODS Following a literature search, methodological quality of algorithm development studies was evaluated using the TRIPOD guidelines (Collins, Reitsma, Altman, & Moons, 2015). RESULTS Methods used for developing the algorithms included logistic regression models, classification and regression trees, Random Forest and TreeNet, Artificial Neural Networks, and Naïve Bayes. Methodological issues for algorithm development studies were related to handling of missing values, reporting recruitment methods, categorization of continuous variables, and statistical controls. CONCLUSIONS Most studies exhibited critical methodological flaws and poor adherence to reporting standards. Diabetes screening algorithms can easily be availed electronically and utilized by nurses at minimal cost even in underserved areas.
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Kim J, Bang JH, Shin JY, Yang BR, Lee J, Park BJ. Hypertension Risk with Abacavir Use among HIV-Infected Individuals: A Nationwide Cohort Study. Yonsei Med J 2018; 59:1245-1252. [PMID: 30450860 PMCID: PMC6240567 DOI: 10.3349/ymj.2018.59.10.1245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2018] [Revised: 10/12/2018] [Accepted: 10/12/2018] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE A high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is reported for HIV-infected individuals. While a link between abacavir and CVD risk is suggested, an association between abacavir and hypertension remains unclear. This study evaluated hypertension risk with abacavir use in comparison to non-abacavir antiretroviral treatment (ART). MATERIALS AND METHODS From a nationwide cohort of HIV-infected individuals on their initial ART, 6493 who were free of hypertension at baseline were analyzed. The use of ART was treated as a time-varying covariate measured as a daily unit. Incidence rate of hypertension was calculated, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of incident hypertension overall and among subgroups. RESULTS From the 6493 participants, 24072 person-years (PY) of follow-up were contributed during 2008-2016. The incidence rates of hypertension were 4.6 and 3.6 per 100 PY for abacavir and non-abacavir ART users, respectively. The population attributable fraction of abacavir use on hypertension was 12%. Abacavir exposure did not elevate the risk of hypertension among overall study population [HR, 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4), p=0.061]. However, those with poor ART adherence, defined as a medication possession ratio <50% [HR, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.4), p<0.0001] or requiring prophylactic antibiotics [HR, 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.3), p=0.023], were at risk of hypertension induced by abacavir, as were men, individuals aged ≥40 years, and patients visiting tertiary hospitals in urban areas. CONCLUSION When present, poor ART adherence, requiring prophylactic antibiotics, male sex, and older age may warrant additional concern for hypertension in patients treated with abacavir.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jungmee Kim
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ji Hwan Bang
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Seoul National University, Seoul Metropolitan Government Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ju Young Shin
- School of Pharmacy, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
| | - Bo Ram Yang
- Medical Research Collaborating Center, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Joongyub Lee
- Department of Prevention and Management, Inha University Hospital, School of Medicine, Inha University, Incheon, Korea
| | - Byung Joo Park
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
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30
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Lee AC, Kozuki N, Cousens S, Stevens GA, Blencowe H, Silveira MF, Sania A, Rosen HE, Schmiegelow C, Adair LS, Baqui AH, Barros FC, Bhutta ZA, Caulfield LE, Christian P, Clarke SE, Fawzi W, Gonzalez R, Humphrey J, Huybregts L, Kariuki S, Kolsteren P, Lusingu J, Manandhar D, Mongkolchati A, Mullany LC, Ndyomugyenyi R, Nien JK, Roberfroid D, Saville N, Terlouw DJ, Tielsch JM, Victora CG, Velaphi SC, Watson-Jones D, Willey BA, Ezzati M, Lawn JE, Black RE, Katz J. Estimates of burden and consequences of infants born small for gestational age in low and middle income countries with INTERGROWTH-21 st standard: analysis of CHERG datasets. BMJ 2017; 358:j3677. [PMID: 28819030 PMCID: PMC5558898 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.j3677] [Citation(s) in RCA: 224] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Objectives To estimate small for gestational age birth prevalence and attributable neonatal mortality in low and middle income countries with the INTERGROWTH-21st birth weight standard.Design Secondary analysis of data from the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG), including 14 birth cohorts with gestational age, birth weight, and neonatal follow-up. Small for gestational age was defined as infants weighing less than the 10th centile birth weight for gestational age and sex with the multiethnic, INTERGROWTH-21st birth weight standard. Prevalence of small for gestational age and neonatal mortality risk ratios were calculated and pooled among these datasets at the regional level. With available national level data, prevalence of small for gestational age and population attributable fractions of neonatal mortality attributable to small for gestational age were estimated.Setting CHERG birth cohorts from 14 population based sites in low and middle income countries.Main outcome measures In low and middle income countries in the year 2012, the number and proportion of infants born small for gestational age; number and proportion of neonatal deaths attributable to small for gestational age; the number and proportion of neonatal deaths that could be prevented by reducing the prevalence of small for gestational age to 10%.Results In 2012, an estimated 23.3 million infants (uncertainty range 17.6 to 31.9; 19.3% of live births) were born small for gestational age in low and middle income countries. Among these, 11.2 million (0.8 to 15.8) were term and not low birth weight (≥2500 g), 10.7 million (7.6 to 15.0) were term and low birth weight (<2500 g) and 1.5 million (0.9 to 2.6) were preterm. In low and middle income countries, an estimated 606 500 (495 000 to 773 000) neonatal deaths were attributable to infants born small for gestational age, 21.9% of all neonatal deaths. The largest burden was in South Asia, where the prevalence was the highest (34%); about 26% of neonatal deaths were attributable to infants born small for gestational age. Reduction of the prevalence of small for gestational age from 19.3% to 10.0% in these countries could reduce neonatal deaths by 9.2% (254 600 neonatal deaths; 164 800 to 449 700).Conclusions In low and middle income countries, about one in five infants are born small for gestational age, and one in four neonatal deaths are among such infants. Increased efforts are required to improve the quality of care for and survival of these high risk infants in low and middle income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne Cc Lee
- Department of Pediatric Newborn Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis Street, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Harvard Medical School, 25 Shattuck St, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Naoko Kozuki
- International Rescue Committee, 1730 M Street NW, Suite 505, Washington, DC 20036, USA
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
| | - Simon Cousens
- Facuty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive, and Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Gretchen A Stevens
- Department of Information, Evidence and Research, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland, CH-1211
| | - Hannah Blencowe
- Facuty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive, and Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Mariangela F Silveira
- Programa de Pós-graduacao em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Rua Marechal Deodoro 1160, 30 piso, Centro, CEP 96020-220, Pelotas, RS, Brazil
| | - Ayesha Sania
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th St, New York, NY 10032
| | - Heather E Rosen
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
| | - Christentze Schmiegelow
- Centre for Medical Parasitology, Department of Immunology and Microbiology, University of Copenhagen, Oester Farimagsgade 5, 1014 Copenhagen K, Denmark
| | - Linda S Adair
- Department of Nutrition, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 135 Dauer Drive, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
- Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 137 E. Franklin, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
| | - Abdullah H Baqui
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
| | - Fernando C Barros
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde e Comportamento, Universidade Católica de Pelotas, Félix da Cunha, 412, CEP 96010-000, Centro, Pelotas, RS, Brazil
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Center for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, 686 Bay Street, Toronto, ON, M5G A04, Canada
- Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Stadium Road PO Box 3500, Karachi 74800, India
| | - Laura E Caulfield
- Center for Human Nutrition, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, W2041, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA
| | - Parul Christian
- Women's Nutrition, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98102, USA
| | - Siân E Clarke
- Faculty of Infectious Disease and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Malaria Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Wafaie Fawzi
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Rogelio Gonzalez
- Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, School of Medicine, Avenida Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins #340, Santiago, Chile
- Clínica Santa María, Avenida Santa María 0410 Providencia, Santiago, Chile
| | - Jean Humphrey
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
- Center for Human Nutrition, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, W2041, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA
- Zvitambo Institute for Maternal and Child Health Research, 16 Lauchlan Road, Meyrick Park, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Lieven Huybregts
- Department of Food Safety and Food Quality, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653 - 9000 Ghent, Belgium
- Poverty, Health and Nutrition Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K St, NW Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA
| | - Simon Kariuki
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Centre for Global Health Research, PO Box 1578-40100, Kisumu, Kenya
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Kenya, Off Kisumu-Busia Highway, PO Box 1578-40100, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Patrick Kolsteren
- Department of Food Safety and Food Quality, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653 - 9000 Ghent, Belgium
| | - John Lusingu
- National Institute for Medical Research, PO Box 5004, Tanga, Tanzania
- University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Dharma Manandhar
- Mother and Infant Research Activities (MIRA), YB Bhawan, Thapathali, Kathmandu 921, Nepal
| | - Aroonsri Mongkolchati
- ASEAN Institute for Health Development, Mahidol University, 999 Phuttamonthon 4 Rd, Salaya, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand
| | - Luke C Mullany
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
| | - Richard Ndyomugyenyi
- Vector Control Division, Ministry of Health, Uganda, Plot 6 Lourdel Rd, Nakasero, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Jyh Kae Nien
- Fetal Maternal Medicine Unit, Clinica Davila, Avenida Recoleta 464, Santiago, Chile
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Los Andes, Avda San Carlos De Apoquindo 2200, Santiago, Chile
| | - Dominique Roberfroid
- Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre, Boulevard du Jardin Botanique 55, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Naomi Saville
- Mother and Infant Research Activities (MIRA), YB Bhawan, Thapathali, Kathmandu 921, Nepal
- Institute for Global Health, University College London Institute of Child Health, London WC1N 1EH, UK
| | - Dianne J Terlouw
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK
- Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, College of Medicine, University of Malawi, PO Box 30096, Chichiri, Blantyre 3, Malawi
| | - James M Tielsch
- Department of Global Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, 950 New Hampshire Ave, NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20052, USA
| | - Cesar G Victora
- Programa de Pós-graduacao em Epidemiologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Rua Marechal Deodoro 1160, 30 piso, Centro, CEP 96020-220, Pelotas, RS, Brazil
| | - Sithembiso C Velaphi
- Department of Paediatrics, Chris Hani Baragwaneth Hospital, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Witwatersrand, Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Deborah Watson-Jones
- Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Mwanza Intervention Trial Unit, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Barbara A Willey
- Facuty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive, and Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Majid Ezzati
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Joy E Lawn
- Facuty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive, and Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Robert E Black
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
- Institute for International Programs, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Joanne Katz
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
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Mytton OT, Tainio M, Ogilvie D, Panter J, Cobiac L, Woodcock J. The modelled impact of increases in physical activity: the effect of both increased survival and reduced incidence of disease. Eur J Epidemiol 2017; 32:235-250. [PMID: 28258521 PMCID: PMC5380706 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-017-0235-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2016] [Accepted: 02/20/2017] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Physical activity can affect ‘need’ for healthcare both by reducing the incidence rate of some diseases and by increasing longevity (increasing the time lived at older ages when disease incidence is higher). However, it is common to consider only the first effect, which may overestimate any reduction in need for healthcare. We developed a hybrid micro-simulation lifetable model, which made allowance for both changes in longevity and risk of disease incidence, to estimate the effects of increases in physical activity (all adults meeting guidelines) on measures of healthcare need for diseases for which physical activity is protective. These were compared with estimates made using comparative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which assumed that longevity was fixed. Using the lifetable model, life expectancy increased by 95 days (95% uncertainty intervals: 68–126 days). Estimates of the healthcare need tended to decrease, but the magnitude of the decreases were noticeably smaller than those estimated using CRA methods (e.g. dementia: change in person-years, −0.6%, 95% uncertainty interval −3.7% to +1.6%; change in incident cases, −0.4%, −3.6% to +1.9%; change in person-years (CRA methods), −4.0%, −7.4% to −1.6%). The pattern of results persisted under different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. For most diseases for which physical activity is protective, increases in physical activity are associated with decreases in indices of healthcare need. However, disease onset may be delayed or time lived with disease may increase, such that the decreases in need may be relatively small and less than is sometimes expected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver T Mytton
- MRC Epidemiology Unit and UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Box 285, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK.
| | - Marko Tainio
- MRC Epidemiology Unit and UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Box 285, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK.,Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01-447, Warsaw, Poland
| | - David Ogilvie
- MRC Epidemiology Unit and UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Box 285, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
| | - Jenna Panter
- MRC Epidemiology Unit and UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Box 285, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
| | - Linda Cobiac
- Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, 3053, Australia
| | - James Woodcock
- MRC Epidemiology Unit and UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Box 285, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
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