Climate-Driven Shifts in Marine Species Ranges: Scaling from Organisms to Communities

Temperature regulates sex determination and growth in the paralichthid flatfish California halibut

California halibut (Paralichthys californicus) is a candidate species for aquaculture and stock enhancement. These applications rely on sex control, either to maximize the production of faster growing females or to match sex ratios in the wild. Other paralichthids exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but the presence and pattern of TSD is not well defined in California halibut. Juvenile California halibut were cultured at three distinct temperatures (15°C, 19°C, and 23°C) through the developmental period presumed to be thermosensitive based on findings from congeners. Sex ratios were quantified in each treatment using phenotypic sex identification techniques applied early (molecular biomarkers; 51-100 mm total length [TL]) and late (visual examination of the gonads; ≥100 mm TL) in the juvenile phase. Both techniques indicated similar sex determination trends at each temperature, with overall sex ratios assessed as 49.9% male at 15°C, 74.5% male at 19°C, and 98.2% male at 23°C. Growth rates were highest at 23°C and lowest at 15°C, with intrinsically fast- and slow-growing individuals at all temperatures. At 15°C and 19°C, females comprised a higher proportion among the fast growers than they did among the slow growers. These data show that California halibut exhibit TSD, with temperatures of 19°C and 23°C masculinizing fish while 15°C appears to produce a 1:1 sex ratio. This study will help optimize sex ratios and growth in hatcheries through thermal manipulation. Furthermore, the developed biomolecular tools and identified temperature thresholds will be important in future work to understand the influence of global warming on wild population demographics.

Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate

The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address.

Aquatic connectivity: challenges and solutions in a changing climate

The challenge of managing aquatic connectivity in a changing climate is exacerbated in the presence of additional anthropogenic stressors, social factors, and economic drivers. Here we discuss these issues in the context of structural and functional connectivity for aquatic biodiversity, specifically fish, in both the freshwater and marine realms. We posit that adaptive management strategies that consider shifting baselines and the socio-ecological implications of climate change will be required to achieve management objectives. The role of renewable energy expansion, particularly hydropower, is critically examined for its impact on connectivity. We advocate for strategic spatial planning that incorporates nature-positive solutions, ensuring climate mitigation efforts are harmonized with biodiversity conservation. We underscore the urgency of integrating robust scientific modelling with stakeholder values to define clear, adaptive management objectives. Finally, we call for innovative monitoring and predictive decision-making tools to navigate the uncertainties inherent in a changing climate, with the goal of ensuring the resilience and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity

Climate change is exposing marine species to unsuitable temperatures while also creating new thermally suitable habitats of varying persistence. However, understanding how these different dynamics will unfold over time remains limited. We use yearly sea surface temperature projections to estimate temporal dynamics of thermal exposure (when temperature exceeds realised species' thermal limits) and opportunity (when temperature at a previously unsuitable site becomes suitable) for 21,696 marine species globally until 2100. Thermal opportunities are projected to arise earlier and accumulate gradually, especially in temperate and polar regions. Thermal exposure increases later and occurs more abruptly, mainly in the tropics. Assemblages tend to show either high exposure or high opportunity, but seldom both. Strong emissions reductions reduce exposure around 100-fold whereas reductions in opportunities are halved. Globally, opportunities are projected to emerge faster than exposure until mid-century when exposure increases more rapidly under a high emissions scenario. Moreover, across emissions and dispersal scenarios, 76%-97% of opportunities are projected to persist until 2100. These results indicate thermal opportunities could be a major source of marine biodiversity change, especially in the near- and mid-term. Our work provides a framework for predicting where and when thermal changes will occur to guide monitoring efforts.

Ocean warming undermines the recovery resilience of New England kelp forests following a fishery-induced trophic cascade

Ecological theory predicts that kelp forests structured by trophic cascades should experience recovery and persistence of their foundation species when herbivores become rare. Yet, climate change may be altering the outcomes of top-down forcing in kelp forests, especially those located in regions that have rapidly warmed in recent decades, such as the Gulf of Maine. Here, using data collected annually from 30+ sites spanning >350 km of coastline, we explored the dynamics of Maine's kelp forests in the ~20 years after a fishery-induced elimination of sea urchin herbivores. Although forests (Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata) had broadly returned to Maine in the late 20th century, we found that forests in northeast Maine have since experienced slow but significant declines in kelp, and forest persistence in the northeast was juxtaposed by a rapid, widespread collapse in the southwest. Forests collapsed in the southwest apparently because ocean warming has-directly and indirectly-made this area inhospitable to kelp. Indeed, when modeling drivers of change using causal techniques from econometrics, we discovered that unusually high summer seawater temperatures the year prior, unusually high spring seawater temperatures, and high sea urchin densities each negatively impacted kelp abundance. Furthermore, the relative power and absolute impact of these drivers varied geographically. Our findings reveal that ocean warming is redefining the outcomes of top-down forcing in this system, whereby herbivore removal no longer predictably leads to a sustained dominance of foundational kelps but instead has led to a waning dominance (northeast) or the rise of a novel phase state defined by "turf" algae (southwest). Such findings indicate that limiting climate change and managing for low herbivore abundances will be essential for preventing further loss of the vast forests that still exist in northeast Maine. They also more broadly highlight that climate change is "rewriting the rules" of nature, and thus that ecological theory and practice must be revised to account for shifting species and processes.

Future climate warming threatens coral reef function on World Heritage reefs

Climate change is the most significant threat to natural World Heritage (WH) sites, especially in the oceans. Warming has devastated marine faunas, including reef corals, kelp, and seagrass. Here, we project future declines in species and ecosystem functions across Australia's four WH coral reef regions. Model simulations estimating species-level abundances and probabilities of ecological persistence were combined with trait space reconstructions at "present," 2050 (+1.5°C of warming), and 2100 (+2°C) to explore biogeographical overlaps and identify key functional differences and forecast changes in function through time. Future climates varied by region, with Shark Bay projected to warm the most (>1.29°C), followed by Lord Howe, when standardized to marine park size. By 2050, ~40% of the Great Barrier Reef will exceed critical thresholds set by the warmest summer month (mean monthly maximum [MMM]), triggering mortality. Functional diversity was greatest at Ningaloo. At +1.5°C of warming, species and regions varied drastically in their functional responses, declined 20.2% in species richness (~70 extinctions) and lost functions across all reefs. At +2°C, models predicted a complete collapse of functions, consistent with IPCC forecasts. This variability suggests a bespoke management approach is needed for each region and is critical for understanding WH vulnerability to climate change, identifying thresholds, and quantifying uncertainty of impacts. This knowledge will aid in focusing management, policy and conservation actions to direct resources, rapid action, and set biodiversity targets for these reefs of global priority. As reefs reassemble into novel or different configurations, determining the winners and losers of functional space will be critical for meeting global landmark biodiversity goals.

Modulations of ocean-atmosphere interactions on squid abundance over Southwest Atlantic

Anthropogenic shifts in seas are reshaping fishing trends, with significant implications for aquatic food sources throughout this century. Examining a 21-year abundance dataset of Argentine shortfin squids Illex argentinus paired with a regional oceanic analysis, we noted strong correlations between squid annual abundance and sea surface temperature (SST) in January and February and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from March to May in the Southwest Atlantic. A deeper analysis revealed combined ocean-atmosphere interactions, pinpointed as the primary mode in a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of SST. This pattern produced colder SST and amplified EKE in the surrounding seas, factors crucial for the unique life stages of squids. Future projections from the CMIP6 archive indicated that this ocean-atmosphere pattern, referred to as the Atlantic symmetric pattern, would persist in its cold SST phase, promoting increased squid abundance. However, rising SSTs due to global warming might counteract the abundance gains. Our findings uncover a previously unrecognized link between squids and specific environmental conditions governed by broader ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Southwest Atlantic. Integrating these insights with seasonal and decadal projections can offer invaluable information to stakeholders in squid fisheries and marine conservation under a changing climate.

When species don't move together: Non-concurrent range shifts in Eastern Pacific kelp forest communities

Species range shifts due to changing ocean conditions are occurring around the world. As species move, they build new interaction networks as they shift from or into new ecological communities. Typically, species ranges are modeled individually, but biotic interactions have been shown to be important to creating more realistic modeling outputs for species. To understand the importance of consumer interactions in Eastern Pacific kelp forest species distributions, we used a Maxent framework to model a key foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), and a dominant herbivore, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). With neither species having previously been modeled in the Eastern Pacific, we found evidence for M. pyrifera expansion in the northern section of its range, with no projected contraction at the southern range edge. Despite its known co-occurrence with M. pyrifera, models of S. purpuratus showed a non-concurrent southern range contraction and a co-occurring northern range expansion. While the co-occurring shifts may lead to increased spatial competition for suitable substrate, this non-concurrent contraction could result in community wide impacts such as herbivore release, tropicalization, or ecosystem restructuring.

3D ocean assessments reveal that fisheries reach deep but marine protection remains shallow

The wave of new global conservation targets, the conclusion of the High Seas Treaty negotiations, and the expansion of extractive use into the deep sea call for a paradigm shift in ocean conservation. The current reductionist 2D representation of the ocean to set targets and measure impacts will fail at achieving effective biodiversity conservation. Here, we develop a framework that overlays depth realms onto marine ecoregions to conduct the first three-dimensional spatial analysis of global marine conservation achievements and fisheries footprint. Our novel approach reveals conservation gaps of mesophotic, rariphotic, and abyssal depths and an underrepresentation of high protection levels across all depths. In contrast, the 3D footprint of fisheries covers all depths, with benthic fishing occurring down to the lower bathyal and mesopelagic fishing peaking in areas overlying abyssal depths. Additionally, conservation efforts are biased towards areas where the lowest fishing pressures occur, compromising the effectiveness of the marine conservation network. These spatial mismatches emphasize the need to shift towards 3D thinking to achieve ocean sustainability.

Physiologically informed organismal climatologies reveal unexpected spatiotemporal trends in temperature

Body temperature is universally recognized as a dominant driver of biological performance. Although the critical distinction between the temperature of an organism and its surrounding habitat has long been recognized, it remains common practice to assume that trends in air temperature-collected via remote sensing or weather stations-are diagnostic of trends in animal temperature and thus of spatiotemporal patterns of physiological stress and mortality risk. Here, by analysing long-term trends recorded by biomimetic temperature sensors designed to emulate intertidal mussel temperature across the US Pacific Coast, we show that trends in maximal organismal temperature ('organismal climatologies') during aerial exposure can differ substantially from those exhibited by co-located environmental data products. Specifically, using linear regression to compare maximal organismal and environmental (air temperature) climatologies, we show that not only are the magnitudes of body and air temperature markedly different, as expected, but so are their temporal trends at both local and biogeographic scales, with some sites showing significant decadal-scale increases in organismal temperature despite reductions in air temperature, or vice versa. The idiosyncratic relationship between the spatiotemporal patterns of organismal and air temperatures suggests that environmental climatology cannot be statistically corrected to serve as an accurate proxy for organismal climatology. Finally, using quantile regression, we show that spatiotemporal trends vary across the distribution of organismal temperature, with extremes shifting in different directions and at different rates than average metrics. Overall, our results highlight the importance of quantifying changes in the entire distribution of temperature to better predict biological performance and dispel the notion that raw or 'corrected' environmental (and specially air temperature) climatologies can be used to predict organismal temperature trends. Hence, despite their widespread coverage and availability, the severe limitations of environmental climatologies suggest that their role in conservation and management policy should be carefully considered.

Novel insights into hotspots of insect vectors of GLRaV-3: Dynamics and global distribution

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the most prevalent and economically damaging virus in grapevines and is found on nearly all continents, except Antarctica. Ten mealybugs act as vector insects transmitting the GLRaV-3. Understanding the potential distribution range of vector insects under climate change is crucial for preventing and managing vector insects and controlling and delaying the spread of GLRaV-3. This study investigated the potential geographical range of insect vectors of GLRaV-3 worldwide using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under environmental variables. The potential distributions of these insects were projected for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under the three climate change scenarios. The results showed that the potential distribution range of most vector insects is concentrated in Southeastern North America, Europe, Asia, and Southeast Australia. Most vector insects contract their potential distribution ranges under climate-change conditions. The stacked model suggested that potential distribution hotspots of vector insects were present in Southeastern North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Southeast Australia. The potential distribution range of hotspots would shrink with climate change. These results provide important information for governmental decision-makers and farmers in developing control and management strategies against vector insects of GLRaV-3. They can also serve as references for studies on other insect vectors.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Functional reorganization of North American wintering avifauna

Wintering birds serve as vital climate sentinels, yet they are often overlooked in studies of avian diversity change. Here, we provide a continental-scale characterization of change in multifaceted wintering avifauna and examine the effects of climate change on these dynamics. We reveal a strong functional reorganization of wintering bird communities marked by a north-south gradient in functional diversity change, along with a superimposed mild east-west gradient in trait composition change. Assemblages in the northern United States saw contractions of the functional space and increases in functional evenness and originality, while the southern United States saw smaller contractions of the functional space and stasis in evenness and originality. Shifts in functional diversity were underlined by significant reshuffling in trait composition, particularly pronounced in the western and northern United States. Finally, we find strong contributions of climate change to this functional reorganization, underscoring the importance of wintering birds in tracking climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change

Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 s and 2100 s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050 s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100 s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.

Natural warming differentiates communities and increases diversity in deep-sea Ridge Flank Hydrothermal Systems

Ridge Flank Hydrothermal Systems have discrete pockets of fluid discharge that mimic climate-induced ocean warming. Unlike traditional hydrothermal fluids, those discharged by Ridge Flank Hydrothermal Systems have a chemical composition indistinguishable from background water, enabling evaluation of the effect of warming temperature. Here we link temperature and terrain variables to community composition and biodiversity by combining remotely operated vehicle images of vent and non-vent zone communities with associated environmental variables. We show overall differences in composition, family richness, and biodiversity between zones, though richness and diversity were only significantly greater in vent zones at one location. Temperature was a contributing factor to observed greater biodiversity near vent zones. Overall, our results suggest that warming in the deep sea will affect species composition and diversity. However, due to the diverse outcomes projected for ocean warming, additional research is necessary to forecast the impacts of ocean warming on deep-sea ecosystems.

Spatio-temporal patterns of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) in the Adriatic Sea under environmental forcing

Understanding how environmental factors affect species distribution is crucial for the conservation and management of marine organisms, especially in the face of global changes. Whiting (Merlangius merlangus) is a demersal cold-temperate fish, considered a 'relict species' in the Adriatic Sea. Despite its significance to commercial fisheries in the region, the specific drivers behind its spatial and temporal patterns have not been thoroughly examined. Here, we fitted a set of Generalized Linear Mixed Effects Models to data collected in the Northern and Central Adriatic from 1999 to 2019 during the Mediterranean International Trawl Survey to investigate the potential influence of depth, seafloor temperature and seafloor dissolved oxygen on the annual biomass density and spatial distribution of whiting in the spring-summer season. Our results showed that depth, and to a lesser degree temperature and oxygen, are important predictors of whiting distribution in this period, with preferences for depths of ~ 45 m, temperature of ~ 15.4°C and dissolved oxygen > 5.5 ml L-1. We predicted a persistent core area of distribution in front of the Po River Delta, in the Northern Adriatic Sea, while the density progressively declined towards the Central and Southern Adriatic Sea along the Italian coast. Additionally, the temporal trend exhibited high fluctuations over the years, occurring in cycles of 3 to 4 years. Finally, by comparing the biomass density estimates obtained under optimal conditions with those derived from the actual values for each variable, our analysis revealed that temperature had a pronounced and general impact on biomass density in the northern survey area (predictions revealed a density reduction of approximately two-thirds), while oxygen displayed a minor and more localized influence. This work deepens the current knowledge about the ecology of whiting in the Adriatic Sea and provides support for the conservation and management of this species.

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes.

METHODS

We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models.

KEY RESULTS

All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Predicting the future of our oceans-Evaluating genomic forecasting approaches in marine species

Climate change is restructuring biodiversity on multiple scales and there is a pressing need to understand the downstream ecological and genomic consequences of this change. Recent advancements in the field of eco-evolutionary genomics have sought to include evolutionary processes in forecasting species' responses to climate change (e.g., genomic offset), but to date, much of this work has focused on terrestrial species. Coastal and offshore species, and the fisheries they support, may be even more vulnerable to climate change than their terrestrial counterparts, warranting a critical appraisal of these approaches in marine systems. First, we synthesize knowledge about the genomic basis of adaptation in marine species, and then we discuss the few examples where genomic forecasting has been applied in marine systems. Next, we identify the key challenges in validating genomic offset estimates in marine species, and we advocate for the inclusion of historical sampling data and hindcasting in the validation phase. Lastly, we describe a workflow to guide marine managers in incorporating these predictions into the decision-making process.

Novel ecological interactions alter physiological responses of range-extending tropical and local temperate fishes under ocean warming

Global warming facilitates species range-expansions, leading to novel biological interactions between local and range-expanding species. Little is still known of how such novel interactions modify the performance of interacting species or how these interactions might be altered under climate change. Here, we used an aquarium experiment to investigate the novel ecological interactions between a poleward range-extending coral reef damselfish ("tropical-vagrant") and a local temperate species ("temperate-local") collected from a climate warming hotspot in SE Australia. We measured the effect of novel interactions (isolated vs. paired fish species) on energy expenditure (activity levels, oxidative stress, and antioxidant responses), energy gain (feeding rates), and growth rates of both fish species under present-day (23 °C) and future ocean temperatures (26 °C). Short-term growth rates were faster in both species under novel interactions (paired species), regardless of elevated temperature. Compared to isolated species, activity level, feeding rate and oxidative stress level were also higher in the paired temperate fish but not in the paired tropical fish. The tropical fish showed an increased feeding rate and long-term growth under elevated temperature, irrespective of novel interactions. We conclude that novel ecological interactions under climate change can be an important driver of physiological traits in sympatric tropical and temperate fishes and can mediate critical physiological performance of fishes under ocean warming.

Continuous warming shifts the community pattern of periphytic protozoan fauna in marine environments

Protozoan fauna is playing an important role in the functioning of microbial food webs by transferring the flux of material and energy from low to high tropic levels in marine ecosystems. To assess effects of elevated temperature on the marine ecosystem, periphytic protozoan communities were used as the test microbial fauna, and were incubated in a temperature-controlled circulation system in a successive temperature gradient of 22 (control), 25, 28, 31 and 34 °C. The results showed that: (1) the test microbial fauna was shifted in both species composition and community structure; (2) the average taxonomic distinctness represented a clear decreasing trend, (3) while the variation in taxonomic distinctness significantly increased with increase of water temperature; and (4) the community pattern was significantly departed from an expectation when temperature increased by 12 °C. These results suggested that Protozoa may be used as a useful bioindicator of global warming in marine ecosystems.

Impacts of ocean acidification and warming on the release and activity of the barnacle waterborne settlement pheromone, adenosine

The effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on the physiological processes of many marine species have been well documented. However, far less is known about the impacts of these global variables on chemical communication. In this study, we identified the barnacle waterborne settlement pheromone (BWSP) of Balanus albicostatus as adenosine (Ado). Our results showed that neither elevated temperature (30 °C vs. ambient 26 °C) nor elevated pCO2 (1000 μatm vs. ambient 400 μatm) significantly affected the release of Ado from B. albicostatus adults. Exposure to elevated temperature and OA did not impair larval cue perception for settlement in B. albicostatus; however, OA inhibited settlement under elevated temperature in the absence/presence of BWSP, and elevated temperature induced larval settlement only in the presence of BWSP under ambient pCO2 condition. These results provided important insights into barnacle aggregation behavior in changing oceans and may help to predict the consequences of climate change on barnacle populations.

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Foundation Species

Marine foundation species are the biotic basis for many of the world's coastal ecosystems, providing structural habitat, food, and protection for myriad plants and animals as well as many ecosystem services. However, climate change poses a significant threat to foundation species and the ecosystems they support. We review the impacts of climate change on common marine foundation species, including corals, kelps, seagrasses, salt marsh plants, mangroves, and bivalves. It is evident that marine foundation species have already been severely impacted by several climate change drivers, often through interactive effects with other human stressors, such as pollution, overfishing, and coastal development. Despite considerable variation in geographical, environmental, and ecological contexts, direct and indirect effects of gradual warming and subsequent heatwaves have emerged as the most pervasive drivers of observed impact and potent threat across all marine foundation species, but effects from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and increased storminess are expected to increase. Documented impacts include changes in the genetic structures, physiology, abundance, and distribution of the foundation species themselves and changes to their interactions with other species, with flow-on effects to associated communities, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. We discuss strategies to support marine foundation species into the Anthropocene, in order to increase their resilience and ensure the persistence of the ecosystem services they provide.

Climate, Oxygen, and the Future of Marine Biodiversity

The ocean enabled the diversification of life on Earth by adding O2 to the atmosphere, yet marine species remain most subject to O2 limitation. Human industrialization is intensifying the aerobic challenges to marine ecosystems by depleting the ocean's O2 inventory through the global addition of heat and local addition of nutrients. Historical observations reveal an ∼2% decline in upper-ocean O2 and accelerating reports of coastal mass mortality events. The dynamic balance of O2 supply and demand provides a unifying framework for understanding these phenomena across scales from the global ocean to individual organisms. Using this framework, we synthesize recent advances in forecasting O2 loss and its impacts on marine biogeography, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. We also highlight three outstanding uncertainties: how long-term global climate change intensifies ocean weather events in which simultaneous heat and hypoxia create metabolic storms, how differential species O2 sensitivities alter the structure of ecological communities, and how global O2 loss intersects with coastal eutrophication. Projecting these interacting impacts on future marine ecosystems requires integration of climate dynamics, biogeochemistry, physiology, and ecology, evaluated with an eye on Earth history. Reducing global and local impacts of warming and O2 loss will be essential if humankind is to preserve the health and biodiversity of the future ocean.

Multiple genetic sources facilitate the northward range expansion of an intertidal oyster along China's coast

Coastal artificial structures on the former mudflats provide available habitats for the rocky intertidal species which can establish new populations in these emerging habitats over their former distribution range limits. As a former southern species, the oyster Crassostrea sikamea has become a pioneer and rapidly invaded the artificial shorelines in northern China. We used a seascape genomics approach to investigate the population structure and genetic sources of C. sikamea on the coastal artificial structures, which is crucial for understanding the genetic mechanisms driving species distribution range expansion and invasion pathway of intertidal species. Five C. sikamea populations, including two artificial substrate populations (WGZ and ZAP), one oyster reef population (LS), and two natural rocky shore populations (ZS and XM), were measured using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) obtained from double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-Seq). Redundancy analyses (RDA) were implemented for investigating the relationship between local temperature variables and the temperature adaptability of C. sikamea. Genetic diversity, direction and strength of gene flow, and population structure all revealed that the LS and ZS populations were the genetic sources for the oyster populations on the emerging northern coastal artificial structures. Results of RDA showed that there were different adaptive potentials for northern and southern populations to local temperature variables and the oyster reef population which frequently suffers from heat stress owned high heat adaptability. The ZS population as a genetic source nearby the Yangtze River estuary provided mass larvae for the northern populations, and the other genetic source, the heat-tolerant LS population, in the oyster reef played an important role in the post-settlement success by providing preadapted genotypes. These results highlight the importance of multiple sources with divergent adaptative capabilities for biological invasion, and also emphasize the importance of the oyster reef in coastal biodiversity and conservation.

Thermal optima in the hypoxia tolerance of marine ectotherms: Physiological causes and biogeographic consequences

The minimum O2 needed to fuel the demand of aquatic animals is commonly observed to increase with temperature, driven by accelerating metabolism. However, recent measurements of critical O2 thresholds ("Pcrit") reveal more complex patterns, including those with a minimum at an intermediate thermal "optimum". To discern the prevalence, physiological drivers, and biogeographic manifestations of such curves, we analyze new experimental and biogeographic data using a general dynamic model of aquatic water breathers. The model simulates the transfer of oxygen from ambient water through a boundary layer and into animal tissues driven by temperature-dependent rates of metabolism, diffusive gas exchange, and ventilatory and circulatory systems with O2-protein binding. We find that a thermal optimum in Pcrit can arise even when all physiological rates increase steadily with temperature. This occurs when O2 supply at low temperatures is limited by a process that is more temperature sensitive than metabolism, but becomes limited by a less sensitive process at warmer temperatures. Analysis of published species respiratory traits suggests that this scenario is not uncommon in marine biota, with ventilation and circulation limiting supply under cold conditions and diffusion limiting supply at high temperatures. Using occurrence data, we show that species with these physiological traits inhabit lowest O2 waters near the optimal temperature for hypoxia tolerance and are restricted to higher O2 at temperatures above and below this optimum. Our results imply that hypoxia tolerance can decline under both cold and warm conditions and thus may influence both poleward and equatorward species range limits.

Effect of ocean outfall discharge volume and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load on urban eutrophication outcomes in the Southern California Bight

Climate change is increasing drought severity worldwide. Ocean discharges of municipal wastewater are a target for potable water recycling. Potable water recycling would reduce wastewater volume; however, the effect on mass nitrogen loading is dependent on treatment. In cases where nitrogen mass loading is not altered or altered minimally, this practice has the potential to influence spatial patterns in coastal eutrophication. We apply a physical-biogeochemical numerical ocean model to understand the influence of nitrogen management and potable wastewater recycling on net primary productivity (NPP), pH, and oxygen. We model several theoretical management scenarios by combining dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) reductions from 50 to 85% and recycling from 0 to 90%, applied to 19 generalized wastewater outfalls in the Southern California Bight. Under no recycling, NPP, acidification, and oxygen loss decline with DIN reductions, which simulated habitat volume expansion for pelagic calcifiers and aerobic taxa. Recycling scenarios under intermediate DIN reduction show patchier areas of pH and oxygen loss with steeper vertical declines relative to a "no recycling" scenario. These patches are diminished under 85% DIN reduction across all recycling levels, suggesting nitrogen management lowers eutrophication risk even with concentrated discharges. These findings represent a novel application of ocean numerical models to investigate the regional effects of idealized outfall management on eutrophication. Additional work is needed to investigate more realistic outfall-specific water recycling and nutrient management scenarios and to contextualize the benefit of these management actions, given accelerating acidification and hypoxia from climate change.

TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY AFFECT DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARASITIC SEA ANEMONE EDWARDSIELLA LINEATA POTENTIALLY LIMITING ITS IMPACT AS A BIOLOGICAL CONTROL ON THE CTENOPHORE MNEMIOPSIS LEIDYI

The lined sea anemone, Edwardsiella lineata, parasitizes the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, which is one of the most destructive marine invasive species in the world. Mnemiopsis leidyi is known to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions. However, the environmental tolerances of its most prominent parasite have never been characterized. Here we determined the effects of temperature (18, 22, 26, and 30 C) and salinity (6, 15, 24, and 33 ppt) on the survival and development of E. lineata from a vermiform parasite to a free-living polyp. At higher temperatures and lower salinities, E. lineata experienced significantly higher mortality, and it failed to develop into an adult polyp at the highest temperature (30 C) and lowest salinities we tested (6 ppt or 15 ppt). While such temperature and salinity restrictions would not currently prevent E. lineata from infecting M. leidyi in many of the European waters where it has become a destructive invasive species, these environmental limitations may be reducing overlap between host and parasite within the host's native range, a situation that could be exacerbated by climate change.

Northerly range expansion and first confirmed records of the smalltooth sand tiger shark, Odontaspis ferox, in the United Kingdom and Ireland

Three Odontaspis ferox (confirmed by mtDNA barcoding) were found in the English Channel and Celtic Sea in 2023 at Lepe, UK (50.7846, -1.3508), Kilmore Quay, Ireland (52.1714, -6.5937), and Lyme Bay, UK (50.6448, -2.9302). These are the first records of O. ferox in either country, and extend the species' range by over three degrees of latitude, to >52° N. They were ~275 (female), 433 (female), and 293 cm (male) total length, respectively. These continue a series of new records, possibly indicative of a climate change-induced shift in the species' range.

Boreal and Lusitanian species display trophic niche variation in temperate waters

Climate change has non-linear impacts on species distributions and abundance that have cascading effects on ecosystem structure and function. Among them are shifts in trophic interactions within communities. Sites found at the interface between two or more biogeographical regions, where species with diverse thermal preferenda are assembled, are areas of strong interest to study the impact of climate change on communities' interactions. This study examined variation in trophic structure in the Celtic Sea, a temperate environment that hosts a mixture of cold-affiliated Boreal species and warm-affiliated Lusitanian species. Using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios, trophic niche area, width, and position were investigated for 10 abundant and commercially important demersal fish species across space and time. In general, the niches of Boreal species appear to be contracting while those of Lusitanian species expand, although there are some fluctuations among species. These results provide evidence that trophic niches can undergo rapid modifications over short time periods (study duration: 2014-2021) and that this process may be conditioned by species thermal preferenda. Boreal species displayed spatial variation in trophic niche width and seem to be facing increased competition with Lusitanian species for food resources. These findings underscore the need to utilize indicators related to species trophic ecology to track the ecosystem alterations induced by climate change. Such indicators could reveal that the vulnerability of temperate ecosystems is currently being underestimated.

Microbiome and photoperiod interactively determine thermal sensitivity of polar and temperate diatoms

The effect of temperature on ectothermic organisms in the context of climate change has long been considered in isolation (i.e. as a single driver). This is challenged by observations demonstrating that temperature-dependent growth is correlated to further factors. However, little is known how the chronobiological history of an organism reflected in its adaptation to re-occurring cyclic patterns in its environment (e.g. annual range of photoperiods in its habitat) and biotic interactions with its microbiome, contribute to shaping its realized niche. To address this, we conducted a full-factorial microcosm multi-stressor experiment with the marine diatoms Thalassiosira gravida (polar) and Thalassiosira rotula (temperate) across multiple levels of temperature (4°C; 9°C; 13.5°C) and photoperiod (4 h; 16 h; 24 h), both in the presence or absence of their microbiomes. While temperature-dependent growth of the temperate diatom was constrained by short and long photoperiods, the polar diatom coped with a 24 h photoperiod up to its thermal optimum (9°C). The algal microbiomes particularly supported host growth at the margins of their respective fundamental niches except for the combination of the warmest temperature tested at 24 h photoperiod. Overall, this study demonstrates that temperature tolerances may have evolved interactively and that the mutualistic effect of the microbiome can only be determined once the multifactorial abiotic niche is defined.

Impacts of Increasing Temperature on the Metabolism of Confined and Freely Moving American Lobsters (Homarus americanus)

AbstractGulf of Maine waters are warming rapidly, prompting a reevaluation of how commercially important marine species will respond. The goal of this study was to determine the respiratory, cardiac, and locomotory responses of American lobsters (Homarus americanus) to increasing water temperatures and to compare these to similar published studies. First, we measured the heart rate and ventilation rate of 10 lobsters that were confined in a temperature-controlled chamber while exposing them to gradually warming temperatures from 16 to 30 °C over 7 h. Both heart rate and ventilation rate increased along with the temperature up to a break point, with the mean heart rate peaking at 26.5 ± 1.6 °C, while the ventilation rate peaked at 27.4 ± 0.8 °C. In a subset of these trials (n = 5), oxygen consumption was also monitored and peaked at similar temperatures. In a second experiment, both the heart rate and activity of five lobsters were monitored with custom-built dataloggers while they moved freely in a large tank, while the temperature was increased from 18 to 29 °C over 24 h. The heart rate of these lobsters also increased with temperature, but their initial heart rates were lower than we recorded from confined lobsters. Finally, we confirmed that the low heart rates of the freely moving lobsters were due to the methods used by comparing heart rate data from eight lobsters collected using both methods with each individual animal. Thus, while our overall results are consistent with data from previous studies, they also show that the methods used in studies of physiological and behavioral responses to warming temperatures can impact the results obtained.

Fishery catch is affected by geographic expansion, fishing down food webs and climate change in Aotearoa, New Zealand

Historical fishing effort has resulted, in many parts of the ocean, in increasing catches of smaller, lower trophic level species once larger higher trophic level species have been depleted. Concurrently, changes in the geographic distribution of marine species have been observed as species track their thermal affinity in line with ocean warming. However, geographic shifts in fisheries, including to deeper waters, may conceal the phenomenon of fishing down the food web and effects of climate warming on fish stocks. Fisheries-catch weighted metrics such as the Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Mean Temperature of the Catch (MTC) are used to investigate these phenomena, although apparent trends of these metrics can be masked by the aforementioned geographic expansion and deepening of fisheries catch across large areas and time periods. We investigated instances of both fishing down trophic levels and climate-driven changes in the geographic distribution of fished species in New Zealand waters from 1950-2019, using the MTL and MTC. Thereafter, we corrected for the masking effect of the geographic expansion of fisheries within these indices by using the Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index and the adapted Mean Trophic Level (aMTL) index. Our results document the offshore expansion of fisheries across the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) from 1950-2019, as well as the pervasiveness of fishing down within nearshore fishing stock assemblages. We also revealed the warming of the MTC for pelagic-associated fisheries, trends that were otherwise masked by the depth- and geographic expansion of New Zealand fisheries across the study period.

Short-term response of macroalgal communities to ocean warming in the Southern Bay of Biscay

Climate change is causing significant shifts in biological communities worldwide, including the degradation of marine communities. Previous research has predicted that southern Bay of Biscay canopy-forming subtidal macroalgal communities will shift into turf-forming Mediterranean-like communities by the end of the century. These predictions were based on a community-environment relationship model that used macroalgal abundance data and IPCC environmental projections. We have tested the short-term accuracy of that model by resampling the same communities and locations four years later and found the short-term predictions to be consistent with the observed communities. Changes in sea surface temperature were positively correlated with changes in the Community Temperature Index, suggesting that macroalgal communities had responded quickly to global warming. The changes over four years were significant, but canopy-forming macroalgae were more resilient in local sites with favourable temperature conditions. Our study demonstrated that updating predictive models with new data has the potential to yield reliable predictions and inform effective conservation strategies.

Over 20% of marine fishes shifting in the North and Barents Seas, but not in the Norwegian Sea

Climate warming generally induces poleward range expansions and equatorward range contractions of species' environmental niches on a global scale. Here, we examined the direction and magnitude of species biomass centroid geographic shifts in relation to temperature and depth for 83 fish species in 9,522 standardised research trawls from the North Sea (1998-2020) to the Norwegian (2000-2020) and Barents Sea (2004-2020). We detected an overall significant northward shift of the marine fish community biomass in the North Sea, and individual species northward shifts in the Barents and North Seas, in 20% and 25% of the species' biomass centroids in each respective region. We did not detect overall community shifts in the Norwegian Sea, where two species (8%) shifted in each direction (northwards and southwards). Among 9 biological traits, species biogeographic assignation, preferred temperature, age at maturity and maximum depth were significant explanatory variables for species latitudinal shifts in some of the study areas, and Arctic species shifted significantly faster than boreal species in the Barents Sea. Overall, our results suggest a strong influence of other factors, such as biological interactions, in determining several species' recent geographic shifts.

Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Here, we combine fisheries-independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high-resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 34 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (BC) and Washington. In this region, species that are projected to decrease in occurrence are roughly balanced by those that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus, biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (less than 100 m), where warming will be greatest, increase at mid-depths (100-600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (greater than 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Higher daily temperature range at depth is linked with higher thermotolerance in antipatharians from the canary islands

Sensitivity to ocean warming is generally expected to be lower in populations from more heterogeneous thermal environments, owing to greater phenotypic plasticity and/or genotype selection. While resilience of benthic populations from thermally fluctuating environments has been investigated at a variety of spatial scales, this has received limited attention across depths and has remained unresolved for Antipatharian corals, key habitat-forming species across a wide bathymetric range in all of the world oceans. In this study, we aimed at addressing the thermal sensitivity of Antipatharian corals across depths characterized by different levels of temperature fluctuations. We used an acute ramping experimental approach to compare the thermal sensitivity of colonies of (1) the branched Antipatharian Antipathella wollastoni (Gray, 1857) from two distinct depths (25 and 40 m) in Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain); and of (2) unbranched mesophotic (80 m) Stichopathes species, from Lanzarote (Canary Islands, Spain; S. gracilis (Gray, 1857)), and Stichopathes sp. clade C from Mo'orea, French Polynesia. Results showed that the daily temperature range in Gran Canaria was larger at mesophotic depths (3.9 °C vs. 2.8 °C at 40 and 25 m, respectively) and this coincided with lower thermal sensitivity in mesophotic colonies of A. wollastoni. Second, S. gracilis from Lanzarote showed a lower thermal sensitivity than the previously studied Stichopathes sp. clade C from Mo'orea (French Polynesia) inhabiting a less variable habitat. These results are in line with the climate variability hypothesis, which states that populations under more variable thermal conditions have a lower sensitivity to warming than those from more stable environments, as they have adapted/acclimated to these higher levels of temperature fluctuations.

Reorganization of seagrass communities in a changing climate

Although climate change projections indicate significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity, the effects are much more profound and striking in the marine environment. Here we explore how different facets of locally distinctive α- and β-diversity (changes in spatial composition) of seagrasses will respond to future climate change scenarios across the globe and compare their coverage with the existing network of marine protected areas. By using species distribution modelling and a dated phylogeny, we predict widespread reductions in species' range sizes that will result in increases in seagrass weighted and phylogenetic endemism. These projected increases of endemism will result in divergent shifts in the spatial composition of β-diversity leading to differentiation in some areas and the homogenization of seagrass communities in other regions. Regardless of the climate scenario, the potential hotspots of these projected shifts in seagrass α- and β-diversity are predicted to occur outside the current network of marine protected areas, providing new priority areas for future conservation planning that incorporate seagrasses. Our findings report responses of species to future climate for a group that is currently under represented in climate change assessments yet crucial in maintaining marine food chains and providing habitat for a wide range of marine biodiversity.

Oxygen availability and body mass modulate ectotherm responses to ocean warming

In an ocean that is rapidly warming and losing oxygen, accurate forecasting of species' responses must consider how this environmental change affects fundamental aspects of their physiology. Here, we develop an absolute metabolic index (Φ_A) that quantifies how ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and organismal mass interact to constrain the total oxygen budget an organism can use to fuel sustainable levels of aerobic metabolism. We calibrate species-specific parameters of Φ_A with physiological measurements for red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) and purple urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). Φ_A models highlight that the temperature where oxygen supply is greatest shifts cooler when water loses oxygen or organisms grow larger, providing a mechanistic explanation for observed thermal preference patterns. Viable habitat forecasts are disproportionally deleterious for red abalone, revealing how species-specific physiologies modulate the intensity of a common climate signal, captured in the newly developed Φ_A framework.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Detection and localization of Goliath grouper using their low-frequency pulse sounds

The goal of this paper is to implement and deploy an automated detector and localization model to locate underwater marine organisms using their low-frequency pulse sounds. This model is based on time difference of arrival (TDOA) and uses a two-stage approach, first, to identify the sound and, second, to localize it. In the first stage, an adaptive matched filter (MF) is designed and implemented to detect and determine the timing of the sound pulses recorded by the hydrophones. The adaptive MF measures the signal and noise levels to determine an adaptive threshold for the pulse detection. In the second stage, the detected sound pulses are fed to a TDOA localization algorithm to compute the locations of the sound source. Despite the uncertainties stemming from various factors that might cause errors in position estimates, it is shown that the errors in source locations are within the dimensions of the array. Further, our method was applied to the localization of Goliath grouper pulse-like calls from a six-hydrophone array. It was revealed that the intrinsic error of the model was about 2 m for an array spanned over 50 m. This method can be used to automatically process large amount of acoustic data and provide a precise description of small scale movements of marine organisms that produce low-frequency sound pulses.

Microbial food webs share similar biogeographic patterns and driving mechanisms with depths in oligotrophic tropical western Pacific Ocean

Microbial food web (MFW) dominates the energy flow in oligotrophic tropical open ocean pelagic ecosystems. Understanding biogeographic patterns and driving mechanisms of key components of the MFW is one of the central topics in current marine ecology. Investigations were conducted along an 1,100-km horizontal gradient and in the full-water column vertical gradient of the oligotrophic tropical western Pacific Ocean. High-throughput sequencing and association networking methods were used to analyze the community structure and interspecies interactions of MFW. The structure of MFW significantly differed with depths, but not across horizontal gradients. Bacteria and microeukaryotes were interconnected and had more predominantly positive and negative linkages in the aphotic layers. Key components of MFW exhibited similar biogeographic patterns and driving mechanisms. Geographic distance exerted minimal effects on the distribution patterns of the microbial food web, while environmental factors played more important roles, especially for temperature and inorganic nutrients. Stochastic processes were more important in the microbial food webs of the 5-200  m layer than the >500  m layer, and drift explained the majority of stochastic processes. Moreover, only a weak but not significant driving force for North Equatorial Current on the east-west connectivity of the microbial food web was found in the upper layers. This knowledge is a critical fundamental data for future planning of marine protected areas targeting the protection of tuna fishing in the western Pacific Ocean.

Marine protected areas, marine heatwaves, and the resilience of nearshore fish communities

Anthropogenic stressors from climate change can affect individual species, community structure, and ecosystem function. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are intense thermal anomalies where water temperature is significantly elevated for five or more days. Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and severity of MHWs in the coming decades. While there is evidence that marine protected areas (MPAs) may be able to buffer individual species from climate impacts, there is not sufficient evidence to support the idea that MPAs can mitigate large-scale changes in marine communities in response to MHWs. California experienced an intense MHW and subsequent El Niño Southern Oscillation event from 2014 to 2016. We sought to examine changes in rocky reef fish communities at four MPAs and associated reference sites in relation to the MHW. We observed a decline in taxonomic diversity and a profound shift in trophic diversity inside and outside MPAs following the MHW. However, MPAs seemed to dampen the loss of trophic diversity and in the four years following the MHW, taxonomic diversity recovered 75% faster in the MPAs compared to reference sites. Our results suggest that MPAs may contribute to long-term resilience of nearshore fish communities through both resistance to change and recovery from warming events.

Unifying approaches to Functional Marine Connectivity for improved marine resource management: the European SEA-UNICORN COST Action

Truly sustainable development in a human-altered, fragmented marine environment subject to unprecedented climate change, demands informed planning strategies in order to be successful. Beyond a simple understanding of the distribution of marine species, data describing how variations in spatio-temporal dynamics impact ecosystem functioning and the evolution of species are required. Marine Functional Connectivity (MFC) characterizes the flows of matter, genes and energy produced by organism movements and migrations across the seascape. As such, MFC determines the ecological and evolutionary interdependency of populations, and ultimately the fate of species and ecosystems. Gathering effective MFC knowledge can therefore improve predictions of the impacts of environmental change and help to refine management and conservation strategies for the seas and oceans. Gathering these data are challenging however, as access to, and survey of marine ecosystems still presents significant challenge. Over 50 European institutions currently investigate aspects of MFC using complementary methods across multiple research fields, to understand the ecology and evolution of marine species. The aim of SEA-UNICORN, a COST Action supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology), is to bring together this research effort, unite the multiple approaches to MFC, and to integrate these under a common conceptual and analytical framework. The consortium brings together a diverse group of scientists to collate existing MFC data, to identify knowledge gaps, to enhance complementarity among disciplines, and to devise common approaches to MFC. SEA-UNICORN will promote co-working between connectivity practitioners and ecosystem modelers to facilitate the incorporation of MFC data into the predictive models used to identify marine conservation priorities. Ultimately, SEA-UNICORN will forge strong forward-working links between scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders to facilitate the integration of MFC knowledge into decision support tools for marine management and environmental policies.

Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.

The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change has been the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide. Direct exploitation of natural resources ranks second and pollution third; climate change and invasive alien species have been significantly less important than the top two drivers. The oceans, where direct exploitation and climate change dominate, have a different driver hierarchy from land and fresh water. It also varies among types of biodiversity indicators. For example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Stopping global biodiversity loss requires policies and actions to tackle all the major drivers and their interactions, not some of them in isolation.