Comparative quantification of health risks conceptual framework and methodological issues

Evaluating health-related quality of life in Ethiopia: protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis of EQ-5D-based studies

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the broad aspect of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is essential to knowing how health problems affect individuals' overall well-being. Evaluating HRQoL is very important in Ethiopia's diverse healthcare setting. This protocol describes a meta-analysis and systematic review that uses the EQ-5D instrument to examine HRQoL in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The study will follow Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols guidelines, conducting a systematic literature search across PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane library and Scopus using keywords like 'quality of life', 'QoL', 'health-related quality of life', 'HRQoL', 'EQ-5D', 'EQ-5D-3L', 'EQ-5D-5L', 'EuroQol', 'five dimensions' and/or 'Ethiopia'. The STATA will be used to pool the mean EQ-5D utility and EQ-VAS scores for a specific disease using the random-effect (Der Simonian-Laird estimator method) and fixed-effect (inverse variance method) models. The quality assessment tool for observational cohort and cross-sectional studies developed by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute will be used for quality assessment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Publicly accessible previously published articles will be included in the research. Therefore, doing this study does not require ethical approval. The protocol offers transparency and adherence to research standards because it is registered on PROSPERO (ID: CRD42024505028). Peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations are dissemination plans.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42024505028.

Global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer among young women during 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer, the most devastating tumor in women globally, significantly impacts young women, compromising their daily lives and overall well-being. Ovarian cancer represents a significant public health concern due to its extensive physical and psychological consequences.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease were used to assess the global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer in young women aged 20-39 from 1990 to 2019. This analysis focused on trends measured by the estimated annual percentage change and explored the socioeconomic impacts via the socio-demographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

During 1990-2019, the incidence and prevalence of ovarian cancer among young women increased globally, with annual rates of 0.74% and 0.89%, respectively. The mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years also rose annually by 0.20% and 0.23%, respectively. A significant burden shift was observed toward regions with lower SDI, with high fasting plasma glucose, BMI, and asbestos exposure identified as prominent risk factors, particularly in lower SDI regions.

CONCLUSION

Our findings underscore ovarian cancer in young women as an escalating global health challenge, with the burden increasingly shifting toward lower socioeconomic areas. This underscores the necessity for targeted prevention and control strategies for ovarian cancer, focusing on reducing the identified risk factors and ensuring equitable health resource distribution.

Burden of cardiovascular disease in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

INTRODUCTION

The rise in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) reflects a major shift from communicable to noncommunicable diseases as primary health challenges. Consequently, this study aims to explore the burden of CVD and associated risk factors in SSA using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.

METHODS

This study utilized data from the GBD 1990 to 2019 to examine CVD prevalence in 46 SSA countries. We employed Bayesian regression models, demographic techniques, and mortality-to-incidence ratios to analyze both prevalence and mortality rates. Additionally, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were computed, and various risk factors were examined using the GBD's comparative risk assessment framework.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, CVD raw counts in SSA rose by 131.7 %, with a 2.1 % increase in age-standardized prevalence rates. The most prevalent conditions were ischemic heart disease, stroke, and rheumatic heart disease. During the same period, the age-standardized CVD deaths per 100,000 individuals decreased from 314 (1990) to 269 (2019), reflecting a -14.4 % decline. Age-standardized CVD DALY rates also showed a decrease from 6,755 in 1990 to 5,476 in 2019, with translates to 18.9 % reduction. By 2019, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, and Lesotho were the countries with the highest age-standardized DALY rates for all CVDs.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights a contrasting trend in SSA's CVD landscape: a decrease in age-standardized mortality and DALYs contrasts with increasing CVD prevalence, emphasizing the need for targeted public health strategies that balance treatment advancements with intensified prevention and control measures.

How Do Behavioral Framing, Linguistic Certainty, and Target Specification Impact Responses to Vaping Prevention Messages?

While research on youth vaping prevention has begun to grow, little work has examined language choice in vaping prevention messages. This study examined adolescents' responses to vaping prevention statements that varied on three features: behavioral framing, linguistic certainty, and target specification. We conducted a 2 (behavioral framing) by 2 (linguistic certainty) by 2 (target specification) by 3 (risk type) plus control condition between-subjects experiment using a national probability sample. Adolescents (N = 1,603) were randomly assigned to one of 25 conditions in which they viewed a vaping prevention statement (or a control statement about vape litter) followed by measures of perceived message effectiveness (PME), perceived severity and susceptibility of vaping risks, message trustworthiness, message relevance, and intentions to seek more information about vaping risks. Results showed main effects of behavioral framing, such that a declarative frame ("Vaping can … ") led to higher PME, higher perceived severity, and greater information seeking intentions than a contingent frame ("If you vape, it can…"), while an interaction revealed that most declarative frame effects were driven by adolescents who were susceptible to vaping. There were also main effects of linguistic certainty, such that the word "can" ("Vaping can … ") led to higher PME, higher perceived susceptibility and severity, and greater information seeking intentions than the word "could" ("Vaping could … "). No main effect of target specification ("you" vs. "teens") was observed. Overall, findings suggest that vaping prevention messages that communicate greater certainty have greater behavior change potential.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating effects of whole grain consumption on type 2 diabetes, colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease: a burden of proof study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on whole grain consumption had inconsistent findings and lacked quantitative assessments of evidence quality. Therefore, we aimed to summarize updated findings using the Burden of Proof analysis (BPRF) to investigate the relationship of whole grain consumption on type 2 diabetes (T2D), colorectal cancer (CRC), stroke, and ischemic heart disease (IHD).

METHODS

We conducted a literature search in the Medline and Web of Science up to June 12, 2023, to identify related cohort studies and systematic reviews. The mean RR (relative risk) curve and uncertainty intervals (UIs), BPRF function, risk-outcome score (ROS), and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) were estimated to evaluate the level of four risk-outcome pairs.

RESULTS

In total, 27 prospective cohorts were included in our analysis. Consuming whole grain at the range of TMREL (118.5-148.1 g per day) was associated with lower risks: T2D (declined by 37.3%, 95% UI: 5.8 to 59.5), CRC (declined by 17.3%, 6.5 to 27.7), stroke (declined by 21.8%, 7.3 to 35.1), and IHD (declined by 36.9%, 7.1 to 58.0). For all outcomes except stroke, we observed a non-linear, monotonic decrease as whole grain consumption increased; For stroke, it followed a J-shaped curve (the greatest decline in the risk of stroke at consuming 100 g whole grain for a day). The relationships between whole grain consumption and four diseases are all two-star pairs (ROS: 0.087, 0.068, 0.062, 0.095 for T2D, CRC, stroke, and IHD, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Consuming 100 g of whole grains per day offers broad protective benefits. However, exceeding this threshold may diminish the protective effects against stroke. Our findings endorse replacing refined grains with whole grains as the main source of daily carbohydrates. REGISTRY AND REGISTRY NUMBER FOR SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS OR META-ANALYSES: We have registered our research in PROSPERO, and the identifier of our meta-analyses is CRD42023447345.

M. tuberculosis Infection Attributable to Exposure in Social Networks of Tuberculosis Cases in an Urban African Community

Background

The persistence of tuberculosis today and its global disparity send a powerful message that effective tuberculosis control must respond to its regional epidemiology. Active case finding through contact investigation is a standard protocol used for tuberculosis control, but its effectiveness has not been established, especially in endemic areas.

Methods

To quantify the potential effectiveness of contact investigation in Kampala, Uganda, we used a cross-sectional design to evaluate the social networks of 123 tuberculosis index cases and 124 controls without tuberculosis.

Results

Tuberculous infection was present in 515 of 989 tuberculosis case contacts (52.1%) and 396 of 1026 control contacts (38.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6). The proportion of infected participants with known exposure within the social network of the tuberculosis case was 35%. The population-attributable fraction was 11.1% for any known exposure, with 7.3% attributable to household exposure and 3.4% attributable to extrahousehold exposure.

Conclusions

This low population-attributable fraction indicates that contact tracing in the social networks of index cases will have only a modest effect in reducing tuberculous infection in a community. New approaches to community-level active case finding are needed.

Mortality burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure in Portugal, 2011 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Exposure to high levels of environmental air pollution causes several health outcomes and has been associated with increased mortality, premature mortality, and morbidity. Ambient exposure to PM2.5 is currently considered the leading environmental risk factor globally. A causal relationship between exposure to PM2.5 and the contribution of this exposure to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality was already demonstrated by the American Heart Association.

METHODS

To estimate the burden of mortality attributable to environmental risk factors, a comparative risk assessment was performed, considering a "top-down" approach. This approach uses an existing estimate of mortality of the disease endpoint by all causes as a starting point. A population attributable fraction was calculated for the exposure to PM2.5the overall burden of IHD and stroke was multiplied by the PAF to determine the burden attributable to this risk factor. The avoidable burden was calculated using the potential impact fraction (PIF) and considering the WHO-AQG 2021 as an alternative scenario.

RESULTS

Between 2011 and 2021, the ambient exposure to PM2.5 resulted in a total of 288,862.7 IHD YLL and a total of 420,432.3 stroke YLL in Portugal. This study found a decreasing trend in the mortality burden attributable to PM2.5 exposure, for both males and females and different age-groups. For different regions of Portugal, the same trend was observed in the last years. The mortality burden attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5 was mainly concentrated in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, North and Centre. Changes in the exposure limits to the WHO recommended value of exposure (WHO-AQG 2021) have a reduction in the mortality burden due to IHD and stroke attributable to PM2.5 exposure, in Portugal.

CONCLUSION

Between 2011 and 2021, approximately 22% and 23% of IHD and stroke deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Nevertheless, the mortality burden attributable to cardiovascular diseases has been decreasing in last years in Portugal. Our findings provide evidence of the impact of air pollution on human health, which are crucial for decision-making, at the national and regional level.

The future burden of type 2 diabetes in Belgium: a microsimulation model

OBJECTIVE

To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030.

METHODS

This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0-80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities.

RESULTS

A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment.

Global incidence and prevalence of gastritis and duodenitis from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Gastritis and duodenitis, prevalent diseases of the digestive system, impose a significant global burden. This study aimed to examine their incidence and prevalence patterns worldwide, including changes over the past 30 years.

METHODS

The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of gastritis and duodenitis, stratified by age, sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The dynamic trends were captured by calculating the average annual percentage changes (AAPC).

RESULTS

In 2019, the global ASIR and ASPR of gastritis and duodenitis were 379.88/100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 312.42/100 000-448.12/100 000) and 518.11/100 000 (95% UI: 420.62/100 000-631.66/100 000), respectively. The highest rates were observed among the 50-69 age group (ASIR: 856.48/100 000; ASPR: 1158.04/100 000) and in low SDI regions (ASIR: 443.33/100 000; ASPR: 631.22/100 000). From 1990 to 2019, there was a significant decrease in global ASIR (AAPC = -0.34%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.36% to -0.31%) and ASPR (AAPC = -0.34%, 95% CI: -0.37% to -0.31%) of gastritis and duodenitis. However, ASIR (AAPC = 0.47%, 95% CI: 0.42%-0.52%) and ASPR (AAPC = 0.51%, 95% CI: 0.47%-0.52%) of gastritis and duodenitis experienced a significant increase in low SDI regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a significant decrease in the global incidence and prevalence of gastritis and duodenitis, these conditions continue to impose a burden on individuals aged 50-69 years and low SDI regions. Targeted interventions for those specific populations and regions are necessary.

Moderate low-cost modifications in diet prevent a substantial number of deaths and mitigate environmental impacts in Brazil

PURPOSE

This study aimed to estimate the health, economic, and environmental impacts of moderate simulated interventions on dietary intake in Brazil.

METHODS

Data on food price and consumption were obtained from three nationwide surveys. Baseline dietary intake was estimated for 33,859 individuals aged 25 years and older. Counterfactual intakes were based on six hypothetical intervention scenarios, by changing the weekly frequency and serving size in low or high consumers of fruit and vegetables (FV), milk, whole grains, red and processed meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. For each scenario, we estimated the attributable number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), monetary cost, environmental impacts (14 midpoint indicators), and environmentally-mediated health impacts.

RESULTS

Compared with the baseline intake and cost, the most expensive intervention (+ 8.3%) was to increase FV intake (+ 125 g), resulting in a 1.2% reduction in all-cause mortality (16,307 deaths/year). The cheapest (- 9.9%) was to reduce red and processed meat intake (- 40 g), resulting in a 1.1% reduction in all-cause mortality (14,272 deaths/year). The combined intervention was, on average, 3.7% cheaper than the baseline cost, resulting in an increase in diet cost for 30% of the population (45-22% in the lower- and higher-income groups); all-cause mortality would be reduced by 3.8% (49,488 deaths/year). Interventions targeting red and processed meats would reduce emissions and resource use by 35-55%, in addition to reducing 2300 DALYs/year.

CONCLUSION

A meaningful number of deaths can be avoided and environmental impacts reduced through moderate and potentially affordable diet modifications.

Global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence and influencing factors study 1990-2019: analysis of the global burden of disease study

INTRODUCTION

Widespread concern exists in today's world regarding self-harm and interpersonal violence. This study to analyze the changes in temporal trends and spatial patterns of risk factors and burdens of self-harm and interpersonal violence using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Temporal trends in self-harm and interpersonal violence were initially summarized using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Data were compiled and visualized to delineate changes in disease burden and factors influencing self-harm and interpersonal violence from 1990 to 2019, stratified by gender, age and GBD region.

RESULTS

In 2019, the DALY rates of self-harm were 424.7(95% UI 383.25, 466.93). Over the period from 1999 to 2019, self-harm exhibited an overall decreasing trend, with the EAPC of -1.5351 (95% CI -1.6194, -1.4507), -2.0205 (95% CI -2.166, -1.8740) and -2.0605 (95% CI -2.2089, -1.9119), respectively. In contrast, the incidence rate of interpersonal violence was significantly higher than self-harm, with a rate of 413.44 (95% UI 329.88, 502.37) per 100,000 population. Mortality and DALYs of interpersonal violence were lower than those of self-harm, at 5.22 (95% UI 4.87, 5.63) and 342.43 (95% UI 316.61, 371.55). Disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence varied by gender, age groups and region. Specific risk factors showed that alcohol use, high temperature and drug use were the main risk factors for self-harm, while alcohol use, intimate partner violence and high temperature were associated with interpersonal violence. Low temperature was a common protective factor for both self-harm and interpersonal violence. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence was attributed to different factors influences in different SDI regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The study explored temporal trends and spatial distribution of the global disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence, emphasizing the significant impact of factors such as alcohol use, temperature, and drug use on disease burden. Further research and policy actions are needed to interpret recent changes of disease burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence, and dedicated efforts should be implemented to devise evidence-based interventions and policies to curtail risk factors and protect high-risk groups.

Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease

Red meat consumption is associated with an elevated risk of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In contrast, forage fish, as highly nutritious, environmentally friendly, affordable, and the most abundant fish species in the ocean, are receiving increasing interest from a global food system perspective. However, little research has examined the impact of replacing red meat with forage fish in the global diet on diet-related NCDs.

METHODS

We based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults.

RESULTS

The results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world's red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5-0.75 million deaths and 8-15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

Comparative examination of breast cancer burden in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2019: estimates from Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

OBJECTIVES

In view of the widening gap in survival data between high-income and low-income countries, this study aimed to evaluate the most up-to-date burden of female breast cancer and analyse the leading risk factors in countries and regions in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

An analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.

SETTING

The data of incidences, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardised rates (ASR) were retrieved from GBD Results Tool (1 January 1990─31 December 2019) covering 4 sub-Saharan African regions and 44 countries. The burden estimable to the risk factors of breast cancer was also estimated. All estimates were presented as counts and ASR per 100 000 population.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants included patients with female breast cancer.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Absolute numbers and ASR/estimates of incidence, deaths and DALY of female breast cancer by location in 1990 and 2019, with their percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. The leading risk factors (eg, alcohol consumption) of breast cancer in sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULTS

In sub-Saharan Africa, the incidences of breast cancer increased by 247% in 2019 from 1990, with the highest incidence recorded in Nigeria. The deaths and DALYs of breast cancer increased by 184% and 178%, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the mortality ASR and DALY ASR increased throughout the region, mostly in Equatorial and Gabon. With varying trends between countries, alcohol consumption and high fasting plasma glucose were noted to be significant contributors to breast cancer deaths between 1990 and 2019.

CONCLUSION

The results show the increasing burden of breast cancer in sub-Saharan Africa and provide valuable information on the trends of breast cancer and the risk factors attributable to breast cancer across sociodemographic index, region and country. These findings may inform health policies and improve the rational allocation of health resources.

Cardiovascular disease burden in the Middle East and North Africa region

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, limited research has been conducted on the burden of CVD in this region. Our study aims to investigate the burden of CVD and related risk factors in the MENA.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 to examine CVD prevalence in 21 MENA countries. Prevalence and mortality were analyzed using Bayesian regression tools, demographic methods, and mortality-to-incidence ratios. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated, and risk factors were evaluated under the GBD's comparative risk assessment framework.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, CVD raw accounts in the MENA increased by 140.9%, while age standardized prevalence slightly decreased (-1.3%). CVD raw mortality counts rose by 78.3%, but age standardized death rates fell by 28%. Ischemic heart disease remained the most prevalent condition, with higher rates in men, while women had higher rates of CVA. Age standardized DALYs decreased by 32.54%. DALY rates varied across countries and were consistently higher in males. Leading risk factors included hypertension, high LDL-C, dietary risks, and elevated BMI.  The countries with the three highest DALYs in 2019 were Afghanistan, Egypt, and Yemen.

CONCLUSIONS

While strides have been made in lessening the CVD burden in the MENA region, the toll on mortality and morbidity, particularly from ischemic heart disease, remains significant. Country-specific variations call for tailored interventions addressing socio-economic factors, healthcare infrastructure, and political stability.

Global, regional, and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: A systematic analysis of global burden of disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer is the third most common and lethal type of cancer worldwide. Glucose metabolism disorders, as represented by high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), increase the risk of development and worsen the prognosis of TBL cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the global disease burden of TBL cancer attributable to HFPG.

METHODS

The TBL cancer burden attributable to HFPG was estimated based on a modeling strategy using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The disease burden globally and by regions, countries, development levels, age groups, and sexes were also evaluated with the indicators of death, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years lived with disability. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated by regression model to show the temporal trend.

RESULTS

In 2019, approximately 8% of the total TBL cancer burden was attributable to HFPG. The HFPG-attributable TBL cancer burden increased globally from 1990 to 2019 with the EAPC of 0.98% per year. The burden was positively associated with social development levels, and the global burden was three times greater in men than in women. HFPG-attributable TBL cancer burden increased with age and peaked at above 70 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight the effect and burden of glucose disorders, as represented by HFPG on TBL cancer burden. Integrated cancer prevention and control measures are needed, with control of glucose disorders as one of the key elements.

Sleep disordered breathing and neurobehavioral deficits in children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) is broadly recognized to be associated with neurobehavioral deficits, which have significant impacts on developing-aged children and adolescents. Therefore, our study aimed to quantify the proportion of neurobehavioral impairments attributed to SDB in general children and adolescents by population attributable fraction (PAF).

METHODS

The study was registered at PROSPERO (ID: CRD42023388143). We collected two types of literature on the prevalence of SDB and the risk of SDB-related neurobehavioral deficits from ten electronic databases and registers, respectively. The pooled effect sizes (Pe, Pc, RR) by random-effects meta-analysis were separately substituted into Levin's formula and Miettinen's formula to calculate PAFs.

RESULTS

Three prevalence literature and 2 risk literature, all with moderate/high quality, were included in the quantitative analysis individually. The prevalence of SDB was 11% (95%CI 2%-20%) in children and adolescents (Pe), while the SDB prevalence was 25% (95%CI 7%-42%) in neurobehavioral patients (Pc). SDB diagnosis at baseline was probably associated with about threefold subsequent incidence of neurobehavioral deficits (pooled RR 3.24, 95%CI 1.25-8.41), after multi-adjustment for key confounders. Up to 19.8% or 17.3% of neurobehavioral consequences may be attributed to SDB from Levin's formula and Miettinen's formula, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A certain number of neurobehavioral consequences may be attributable to SDB. It is essential for clinicians to identify and treat SDB timely, as well as screen for SDB in patients with neurobehavioral impairments. More longitudinal studies of SDB and neurobehavioral deficits are needed in the future to further certify the association between them.

Preventable incidence cases from non-communicable diseases attributable to insufficient physical activity in Chile

OBJECTIVES

Lack of sufficient physical activity (PA) has been associated with an increased risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and all-cause mortality. This study aimed to estimate the number of preventable incidence cases of NCDs attributable to insufficient PA in the Chilean population.

STUDY DESIGN

Comparative risk assessment modelling study.

METHODS

This study examined data from 5834 participants aged ≥20 years from the Chilean National Survey (2016-2017). PA was assessed by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ), and metabolic equivalent of tasks (METs) were assigned according to PA intensity. Estimated incidence cases of NCDs in Chile in 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. Relative risks for breast cancer, colon cancer, ischaemic heart disease, diabetes and stroke were obtained from a published meta-analysis and applied to the prevalence of insufficient PA estimates through the potential impact fraction equation.

RESULTS

High levels of PA (≥8000 MET-min/week) could potentially avoid more than 22,000 (64.6 %) incidence NCD cases, ranging from 498 (10.1 %) preventable cases of breast cancer to 5629 (14.7 %) cases of diabetes. Other modelled scenarios also showed to reduce the incidence cases of all five NCDs but to a lesser extent; where at least PA recommendation was achieved, preventable NCDs were reduced by 6522 cases (18.7 %), and where a 10 % relative reduction in insufficient PA level in the population was achieved, preventable NCDs were reduced by 651 (1.8 %) cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results provide estimates for the incidence cases of preventable NCDs attributable to insufficient PA, highlighting the important role of PA in NCD prevention in Chile.

Mortality and disability-adjusted life years in North Africa and Middle East attributed to kidney dysfunction: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

The study aimed to estimate the attributable burden to kidney dysfunction as a metabolic risk factor in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region and its 21 countries in 1990-2019.

Methods

The data used in this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, which provided estimated measures of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and other epidemiological indicators of burden. To provide a better insight into the differences in the level of social, cultural, and economic factors, the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) was used.

Results

In the NAME region in 2019, the number of deaths attributed to kidney dysfunction was 296 632 (95% uncertainty interval: 249 965-343 962), which was about 2.5 times higher than in the year 1990. Afghanistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia had the highest, and Kuwait, Turkey, and Iran (Islamic Republic of) had the lowest age-standardized rate of DALYs attributed to kidney dysfunction in the region in 2019. Kidney dysfunction was accounted as a risk factor for ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, stroke, and peripheral artery disease with 150 471, 111 812, 34 068, and 281 attributable deaths, respectively, in 2019 in the region. In 2019, both low-SDI and high-SDI countries in the region experienced higher burdens associated with kidney dysfunction compared to other countries.

Conclusions

Kidney dysfunction increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases burden and accounted for more deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases than chronic kidney disease in the region in 2019. Hence, policymakers in the NAME region should prioritize kidney disease prevention and control, recognizing that neglecting its impact on other diseases is a key limitation in its management.

Evaluating the health impact of increased linseed consumption in the Danish population

Consumption of linseeds has been suggested to have beneficial effects on human health. However, toxic constituents of linseed may compromise these benefits. We conducted a quantitative risk-benefit assessment to evaluate the overall health impact of increasing linseed intake up to 45 g/day in the Danish population (15-74 years). We quantified the risks associated with increased cadmium exposure and the benefits associated with increased intake of dietary fibre. Increased intakes of alpha-linoleic acid (ALA) were included in a sensitivity analysis. The overall health impact of different linseed intake scenarios was estimated in terms of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). We found that the beneficial effects of linseed due to increased intake of dietary fibre outweighed the adverse health effects due to increased cadmium exposure in all scenarios. Up to 670 DALYs/100,000 individuals could be averted per year by increasing linseed consumption in the Danish population. The estimated beneficial health impact increased further when including ALA in the assessment. Different sources of uncertainty might affect the results, and more research is needed on both the health effects associated with intake of linseed and its constituents, and the bioavailability of ALA and cadmium from linseed to further improve the risk-benefit assessment.

Global, regional, and national disease burden and attributable risk factors of HIV/AIDS in older adults aged 70 years and above: a trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

We aimed to assess the burden and trend of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among older adults over the past three decades at different geographical levels, based on the data collected from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study 2019. This assessment identified the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) using Joinpoint regression analysis. Globally, the incidence of HIV/AIDS has decreased (AAPC = -3.107); however, the overall prevalence has consistently increased (AAPC = 5.557). Additionally, both mortality (AAPC = 2.166) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; AAPC = 2.429) have increased. The highest increasing trends in female HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence were observed in the Central Asia region. However, for males, these trends were observed in the Oceania region and the high-income Asia Pacific region, respectively. In recent decades, females aged 70-74 years had the highest incidence and prevalence, while males aged 70-74 years had highest mortality and DALYs in low social development index (SDI) regions. Unsafe sex resulted in 15 381.16 deaths, accounting for 90.73% of all HIV/AIDS deaths, and 331 140.56 DALYs, accounting for 91.12% of all HIV/AIDS DALYs. The HIV/AIDS disease burden differs by region, age, and sex among older adults. Sexual health education and targeted screening for older adults are recommended.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of COPD Attributable to Occupational Particulate Matter, Gases, and Fumes, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

A study aimed to estimate the burden of Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) caused by occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on the deaths number, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) of COPD attributable to occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes were collected from the GBD study 2019. We also investigated the association between the ASDR and SDI.

Results

There were 517.7 thousand deaths [95% UI: 413.9 to 634.5] in 2019. The number of deaths increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASMR and ASDR were 6.61 (5.24 to 8.17) and 143.02 (118.56 to 168.69) in 2019, respectively, representing a 46% and 44.5% decrease since 1990. China had the highest number of deaths [200,748.4 (151,897.6 to 260,703.9)], while Nepal had the highest ASMR [39 (27.7 to 50)] and ASDR [724.5 (549 to 894.2)]. Males and females 75-79 and 80-84 years old had the highest number of COPD deaths. A negative correlation was observed when SDI > 0.4, whereas a positive correlation was found when SDI < 0.4.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2019, there was an increase in the number of deaths, but a decline in ASMR and ASDR globally. Besides, there was a heterogeneous burden of COPD attributable to occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes across regions and countries. It is important to develop and implement strategies to prevent and reduce the burden of COPD attributable to occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes.

Economic effects for citizens and the government of a country-level tobacco endgame strategy: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Aotearoa-New Zealand (A/NZ) was the first country to pass a comprehensive commercial tobacco endgame strategy into law. Key components include the denicotinisation of smoked tobacco products and a major reduction in tobacco retail outlets. Understanding the potential long-term economic impacts of such measures is important for government planning.

DESIGN

A tobacco policy simulation model that evaluated the health impacts of the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan was extended to evaluate the economic effects from both government and citizen perspectives. Estimates were presented in 2021 US$, discounted at 3% per annum.

RESULTS

The modelled endgame policy package generates considerable growth in income for the A/NZ population with a total cumulative gain of US$31 billion by 2050. From a government perspective, increased superannuation payments and reduced tobacco excise tax revenue result in a negative net financial position and a cumulative shortfall of US$11.5 billion by 2050. In a sensitivity analysis considering future labour force changes, the government's cumulative net position remained negative by 2050, but only by US$1.9 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

A policy such as the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan is likely to produce substantial economic benefits for citizens, and modest impacts on government finances related to reduced tobacco tax and increases in aged pensions due to increased life expectancy. Such costs can be anticipated and planned for and might be largely offset by future increases in the size of the labour force and the proportion of people 65+ years old working in the formal economy.

Burden and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of disease study 2019

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced a surge of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over the past two decades. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), in this study we have estimated the burden and attributable risk factors of COPD across SSA countries between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

COPD burden and its attributable risk factors were estimated using data from the 2019 GBD. Percentage change was estimated to show the trend of COPD estimates from 1990 to 2019. COPD estimates attributable by risk factors were also reported to ascertain the risk factor that brings the greatest burden by sex and locations (at country and regions level).

Findings

In 2019, all-age prevalent cases of COPD in SSA were estimated to be 10.3 million (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 9.7 million to 10.9 million) showing an increase of 117% compared with the number of all-age COPD cases in 1990. From 1990 to 2019, SSA underwent an increased percentage change in all-age YLDs due to COPD ranging from 41% in Lesotho to 203% in Equatorial Guinea. The largest premature mortality due to COPD was reported from Central SSA accounting for 729 subjects (95% UI, 509-1078). The highest rate of DALYs attributable to COPD was observed in Lesotho. Household air pollution from solid fuel was the primary contributor of the age standardized YLDs, death rate, and DALYs rate per 100,000 population.

Interpretation

The prevalence of COPD in SSA has had a steady increase over the past three decades and has progressively become a major public health burden across the region. Household air pollution from solid fuel is the primary contributor to COPD related burden, and its percentage contribution showed a similar trend to the reduction of COPD attributed age-standardized DALY rate. The methodological limitations of surveys and datapoints included in the GBD need to be considered when interpreting these associations.

Funding

There are no specific fundings received for this study. The Global Burden of Disease study was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of health and economic effects of United States school meal standards consistent with the 2020-2025 dietary guidelines for Americans

BACKGROUND

The current school meal nutrition standards, established in 2010, are not fully aligned with the 2020-2025 Dietary Guideline for Americans (DGA). This study evaluates the potential short-term and long-term health and economic benefits of strengthening the school meal standards on added sugars, sodium, and whole grains to be aligned with current guidelines.

METHODS

We used comparative risk assessment frameworks based on nationally representative data incorporating current demographics, dietary habits, and risk factors of United States children aged 5-18 y from 3 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2018). To estimate short-term impact, the model incorporated estimated dietary changes owing to potential new DGA-aligned school meal nutrition standards and the effect of these changes on childhood body mass index (in kg/m2) and blood pressure. To estimate long-term impact, the model further incorporated data on the sustainability of childhood dietary changes into adulthood, and on demographics and risk factors of United States adults, diet-disease associations, and disease-specific national mortality.

RESULTS

In a best-case scenario assuming full school compliance, implementing new DGA-aligned nutritional standards would lower elementary children's BMI by an average 0.14 (95% UI: 0.08-0.20) kg/m2 and systolic blood pressure by 0.13 (95% UI: 0.06-0.19) (95% mm Hg. Later in life, the new standards were estimated to prevent 10,600 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4820-16,800) annual deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and cancer in adulthood; and save 355,000 (95% UI: 175,000-538,000) disability-adjusted life years and $19.3 (95% UI: 9.35-30.3) B in direct and indirect medical costs each year. Accounting for plausible (incomplete) school compliance, implementation would save an estimated 9110 (95% UI: 2740-15,100) deaths, 302,000 (95% UI: 120,000-479,000) disability-adjusted life years, and $15.9 (95% UI: 4.54-27.2) B in healthcare-related costs per year in later adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS

Stronger school meal nutrition standards on added sugars, sodium, and whole grains aligned with the 2020-2025 DGA recommendations may improve diet, childhood health, and future adult burdens of CVD, diabetes, cancer, and associated economic costs.

Particulate Matter Pollution Remains a Threat for Cardiovascular Health: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2019

Background Particulate matter (PM) pollution is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, causing substantial disease burden and deaths worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the global burden of cardiovascular diseases attributed to PM from 1990 to 2019. Methods and Results We used the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) study 2019 to investigate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and deaths attributed to PM as well as its subgroups. It was shown that all burden measures' age-standardized rates for PM were in the same decreasing trend, with the highest decline recorded for deaths (-36.7%). However, the all-age DALYs increased by 31%, reaching 8.9 million in 2019, to which YLLs contributed the most (8.2 million [95% uncertainty interval, 7.3 million-9.2 million]). Men had higher deaths, DALYs, and YLLs despite lower years lived with disability in 2019 compared with women. There was an 8.1% increase in the age-standardized rate of DALYs for ambient PM; however, household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 65.4% in the assessed period. Although higher in men, the low and high sociodemographic index regions had the highest and lowest attributed YLLs/YLDs ratio for PM pollution in 2019, respectively. Conclusions Although the total age-standardized rate of DALYs for PM-attributed cardiovascular diseases diminished from 1990 to 2019, the global burden of PM on cardiovascular diseases has increased. The differences between men and women and between regions have clinical and policy implications in global health planning toward more exact funding and resource allocation, in addition to addressing inequity in health care access.

Spatial assessment of the attributable burden of disease due to transportation noise in England

BACKGROUND

Noise pollution from transportation is one of the leading contributors to the environmental disease burden in Europe. We provide a novel assessment of spatial variations of these health impacts within a country, using England as an example.

METHODS

We estimated the burden of annoyance (highly annoyed), sleep disturbance (highly sleep disturbed), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and diabetes attributable to long-term transportation noise exposures in England for the adult population in 2018 down to local authority level (average adult population: 136,000). To derive estimates, we combined literature-informed exposure-response relationships, with population data on noise exposures, disease, and mortalities. Long-term average noise exposures from road, rail and aircraft were sourced from strategic noise mapping, with a lower exposure threshold of 50 dB (decibels) Lden and Lnight.

RESULTS

40 %, 4.5 % and 4.8 % of adults in England were exposed to road, rail, and aircraft noise exceeding 50 dB Lden. We estimated close to a hundred thousand (∼97,000) disability adjusted life years (DALY) lost due to road-traffic, ∼13,000 from railway, and ∼ 17,000 from aircraft noise. This excludes some noise-outcome pairs as there were too few studies available to provide robust exposure-response estimates. Annoyance and sleep disturbance accounted for the majority of the DALYs, followed by strokes, IHD, and diabetes. London, the South East, and North West regions had the greatest number of road-traffic DALYs lost, while 63 % of all aircraft noise DALYs were found in London. The strategic noise mapping did not include all roads, which may still have significant traffic flows. In sensitivity analyses using modelled noise from all roads in London, the DALYs were 1.1x to 2.2x higher.

CONCLUSION

Transportation noise exposures contribute to a significant and unequal environmental disease burden in England. Omitting minor roads from the noise exposure modelling leads to underestimation of the disease burden.

Impact of native-plants policy scenarios on premature mortality in Denver: A quantitative health impact assessment

BACKGROUND

Cities often use non-native plants such as turf grass to expand green space. Native plants, however, may require less water and maintenance and have co-benefits for local biodiversity, including pollinators. Previous studies estimating mortality averted by adding green space have not considered the provision of native plants as part of the greening policies.

AIM

We aim to estimate premature deaths that would be prevented by the implementation of native-plants policy scenarios in the City of Denver, Colorado, USA.

METHODS

After conducting interviews with local expert stakeholders, we designed four native-plants policy scenarios: (1) greening 30% of all city census-block groups to the greenness level of native plants, (2) adding 200-foot native-plants buffers around riparian areas, (3) constructing large water retention ponds landscaped with native plants, and (4) greening parking lots. We defined the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) corresponding to native plants by measuring the NDVI at locations with known native or highly diverse vegetation. Using a quantitative health-impact assessment approach, we estimated premature mortality averted under each scenario, comparing alternative NDVI with the baseline value.

RESULTS

In the most ambitious scenario, we estimated that 88 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 20, 128) annual premature deaths would be prevented by greening 30% of the area of census block groups with native plants. We estimated that greening 30% of parking-lot surface with native plants would prevent 14 annual deaths (95% UI: 7, 18), adding the native buffers around riparian areas would prevent 13 annual deaths (95% UI: 2, 20), and adding the proposed stormwater retention ponds would prevent no annual deaths (95% UI: 0, 1).

CONCLUSION

Using native plants to increase green spaces has the potential to prevent premature deaths in the City of Denver, but results were sensitive to the definition of native plants and the policy scenario.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease attributable to unsafe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene in domestic settings: a global analysis for selected adverse health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Assessments of disease burden are important to inform national, regional, and global strategies and to guide investment. We aimed to estimate the drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH)-attributable burden of disease for diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections, undernutrition, and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, using the WASH service levels used to monitor the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as counterfactual minimum risk-exposure levels.

METHODS

We assessed the WASH-attributable disease burden of the four health outcomes overall and disaggregated by region, age, and sex for the year 2019. We calculated WASH-attributable fractions of diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections by country using modelled WASH exposures and exposure-response relationships from two updated meta-analyses. We used the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene public database to estimate population exposure to different WASH service levels. WASH-attributable undernutrition was estimated by combining the population attributable fractions (PAF) of diarrhoea caused by unsafe WASH and the PAF of undernutrition caused by diarrhoea. Soil-transmitted helminthiasis was fully attributed to unsafe WASH.

FINDINGS

We estimate that 1·4 (95% CI 1·3-1·5) million deaths and 74 (68-80) million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) could have been prevented by safe WASH in 2019 across the four designated outcomes, representing 2·5% of global deaths and 2·9% of global DALYs from all causes. The proportion of diarrhoea that is attributable to unsafe WASH is 0·69 (0·65-0·72), 0·14 (0·13-0·17) for acute respiratory infections, and 0·10 (0·09-0·10) for undernutrition, and we assume that the entire disease burden from soil-transmitted helminthiasis was attributable to unsafe WASH.

INTERPRETATION

WASH-attributable burden of disease estimates based on the levels of service established under the SDG framework show that progress towards the internationally agreed goal of safely managed WASH services for all would yield major public-health returns.

FUNDING

WHO and Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

The burden of metabolic risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background

The objective of this study is to investigate the trends of exposure and burden attributable to the four main metabolic risk factors, including high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body-mass index (BMI), and high low-density lipoproteins cholesterol (LDL) in North Africa and the Middle East from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

The data were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Summary exposure value (SEV) was used for risk factor exposure. Burden attributable to each risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

Findings

While age-standardized death rate (ASDR) attributable to high-LDL and high-SBP decreased by 26.5% (18.6-35.2) and 23.4% (15.9-31.5) over 1990-2019, respectively, high-BMI with 5.1% (-9.0-25.9) and high-FPG with 21.4% (7.0-37.4) change, grew in ASDR. Moreover, age-standardized DALY rate attributed to high-LDL and high-SBP declined by 30.2% (20.9-39.0) and 25.2% (16.8-33.9), respectively. The attributable age-standardized DALY rate of high-BMI with 8.3% (-6.5-28.8) and high-FPG with 27.0% (14.3-40.8) increase, had a growing trend. Age-standardized SEVs of high-FPG, high-BMI, high-SBP, and high-LDL increased by 92.4% (82.8-103.3), 76.0% (58.9-99.3), 10.4% (3.8-18.0), and 5.5% (4.3-7.1), respectively.

Interpretation

The burden attributed to high-SBP and high-LDL decreased during the 1990-2019 period in the region, while the attributable burden of high-FPG and high-BMI increased. Alarmingly, exposure to all four risk factors increased in the past three decades. There has been significant heterogeneity among the countries in the region regarding the trends of exposure and attributable burden. Urgent action is required at the individual, community, and national levels in terms of introducing effective strategies for prevention and treatment that account for local and socioeconomic factors.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 μm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

METHODS

The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis.

FINDINGS

The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher.

INTERPRETATION

The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Simulation-based estimates and projections of global, regional and country-level maternal mortality by cause, 1990-2050

Maternal mortality is a major global health challenge. Although progress has been made globally in reducing maternal deaths, measurement remains challenging given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. We developed the Global Maternal Health microsimulation model for women in 200 countries and territories, accounting for individual fertility preferences and clinical histories. Demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data were synthesized from multiple sources, including the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. We calibrated the model to empirical data from 1990 to 2015 and assessed the predictive accuracy of our model using indicators from 2016 to 2020. We projected maternal health indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country and estimate that between 1990 and 2020 annual global maternal deaths declined by over 40% from 587,500 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 520,600-714,000) to 337,600 (95% UI 307,900-364,100), and are projected to decrease to 327,400 (95% UI 287,800-360,700) in 2030 and 320,200 (95% UI 267,100-374,600) in 2050. The global maternal mortality ratio is projected to decline to 167 (95% UI 142-188) in 2030, with 58 countries above 140, suggesting that on current trends, maternal mortality Sustainable Development Goal targets are unlikely to be met. Building on the development of our structural model, future research can identify context-specific policy interventions that could allow countries to accelerate reductions in maternal deaths.

A simulation-based comparative effectiveness analysis of policies to improve global maternal health outcomes

The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. We used the empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022 to 2030. Although individual interventions yielded fairly small reductions in maternal mortality, integrated strategies were more effective. A strategy to simultaneously increase facility births, improve the availability of clinical services and quality of care at facilities, and improve linkages to care would yield a projected global MMR of 72 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 58-87) in 2030. A comprehensive strategy adding family planning and community-based interventions would have an even larger impact, with a projected MMR of 58 (95% UI = 46-70). Although integrated strategies consisting of multiple interventions will probably be needed to achieve substantial reductions in maternal mortality, the relative priority of different interventions varies by setting. Our regional and country-level estimates can help guide priority setting in specific contexts to accelerate improvements in maternal health.

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8-14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8-71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0-27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3-27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3-23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4-87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1-83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1-60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally.

Global burden of hepatitis B attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a growing contribution and its association with socioeconomic status

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B is a global public health concern, and modifiable risk factors can accelerate progression of this disease. The burden of hepatitis B attributable to modifiable risk factors has not been well evaluated. We aimed to estimate the disease burden of hepatitis B attributable to tobacco, alcohol use, and a high body mass index (BMI) to guide lifestyle interventions in the management of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

RESULTS

In 2019, 33.73% of hepatitis B age-standardized deaths and 34.52% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were attributable to tobacco, alcohol use, and a high BMI. The proportion showed an increasing trend that 28.23% of deaths and 27.56% of DALYs were attributable to the three modifiable risk factors in 1990. The hepatitis B burden attributable to modifiable risk factors was disparate across regions and countries. Countries with a low socioeconomic status have a high burden of hepatitis B owing to modifiable risk factors. Countries with a high-level sociodemographic index also had an increasing burden of hepatitis B attributable to a high BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Lifestyle interventions are warranted in hepatitis prevention strategies and plans of action. Countries with low and middle socioeconomic development should be prioritized, and countries with high socioeconomic development should be aware of the novel challenge of a high BMI-related disease burden.

Model Choice for Quantitative Health Impact Assessment and Modelling: An Expert Consultation and Narrative Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a widely used process that aims to identify the health impacts, positive or negative, of a policy or intervention that is not necessarily placed in the health sector. Most HIAs are done prospectively and aim to forecast expected health impacts under assumed policy implementation. HIAs may quantitatively and/ or qualitatively assess health impacts, with this study focusing on the former. A variety of quantitative modelling methods exist that are used for forecasting health impacts, however, they differ in application area, data requirements, assumptions, risk modelling, complexities, limitations, strengths, and comprehensibility. We reviewed relevant models, so as to provide public health researchers with considerations for HIA model choice.

METHODS

Based on an HIA expert consultation, combined with a narrative literature review, we identified the most relevant models that can be used for health impact forecasting. We narratively and comparatively reviewed the models, according to their fields of application, their configuration and purposes, counterfactual scenarios, underlying assumptions, health risk modelling, limitations and strengths.

RESULTS

Seven relevant models for health impacts forecasting were identified, consisting of (i) comparative risk assessment (CRA), (ii) time series analysis (TSA), (iii) compartmental models (CMs), (iv) structural models (SMs), (v) agent-based models (ABMs), (vi) microsimulations (MS), and (vii) artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML). These models represent a variety in approaches and vary in the fields of HIA application, complexity and comprehensibility. We provide a set of criteria for HIA model choice. Researchers must consider that model input assumptions match the available data and parameter structures, the available resources, and that model outputs match the research question, meet expectations and are comprehensible to end-users.

CONCLUSION

The reviewed models have specific characteristics, related to available data and parameter structures, computational implementation, interpretation and comprehensibility, which the researcher should critically consider before HIA model choice.

Burden of chronic kidney diseases and underlying causes in Zambia: evidence from the global burden of disease study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been a global public health problem and a major source of suffering and poor quality of life for those afflicted. Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) study 2019, we estimated the magnitude of the burden of CKD as well as the underlying causes of CKD in the Zambian population.

METHOD

The data used for this study were extracted from the GBD 2019 study. The GBD 2019 provides estimates of several metrics of disease burden including the commonly used disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for over 369 diseases and injuries, and 87 risk factors and combinations of these in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. We estimated the burden of CKD as the number and rates (per 100,000 population) of DALYs, disaggregated by year, sex, and age group. We examined the underlying causes of CKD by estimating the population attributable fraction as the percentage contributions of risk factors to CKD DALY.

RESULTS

The number of DALYs for CKD was estimated as 76.03 million (95% UI: 61.01 to 93.36) in 2019 compared to 39.42 million (95% UI: 33.09 to 45.90) in 1990, representing 93% increase whereas the DALYs rate per 100,000 population was estimated as 416.89 (95% UI: 334.53 to 511.93) in 2019 compared to 496.38 (95% UI: 416.55 to 577.87) in 1990, representing 16% reduction. CKD due to hypertension accounted for 18.7% of CKD DALYs and CKD due to diabetes (types 1 and 2) accounted for 22.7%, while CKD from glomerulonephritis accounted for the most DALYs at 33%. The age group most impacted from CKD were adolescents and young adults.

CONCLUSION

The burden of CKD remains high in the Zambian population with diabetes, high blood pressure, and glomerulonephritis as important causes. The results highlight the need to develop a comprehensive action plan to prevent and treat kidney disease. Increasing the awareness of CKD among the public as well as adaptation of guidelines for treating patients with end stage kidney disease are important considerations.

Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure: a health impact assessment of European cities

BACKGROUND

High ambient temperatures are associated with many health effects, including premature mortality. The combination of global warming due to climate change and the expansion of the global built environment mean that the intensification of urban heat islands (UHIs) is expected, accompanied by adverse effects on population health. Urban green infrastructure can reduce local temperatures. We aimed to estimate the mortality burden that could be attributed to UHIs and the mortality burden that would be prevented by increasing urban tree coverage in 93 European cities.

METHODS

We did a quantitative health impact assessment for summer (June 1-Aug 31), 2015, of the effect of UHIs on all-cause mortality for adults aged 20 years or older in 93 European cities. We also estimated the temperature reductions that would result from increasing tree coverage to 30% for each city and estimated the number of deaths that could be potentially prevented as a result. We did all analyses at a high-resolution grid-cell level (250 × 250 m). We propagated uncertainties in input analyses by using Monte Carlo simulations to obtain point estimates and 95% CIs. We also did sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our estimates.

FINDINGS

The population-weighted mean city temperature increase due to UHI effects was 1·5°C (SD 0·5; range 0·5-3·0). Overall, 6700 (95% CI 5254-8162) premature deaths could be attributable to the effects of UHIs (corresponding to around 4·33% [95% CI 3·37-5·28] of all summer deaths). We estimated that increasing tree coverage to 30% would cool cities by a mean of 0·4°C (SD 0·2; range 0·0-1·3). We also estimated that 2644 (95% CI 2444-2824) premature deaths could be prevented by increasing city tree coverage to 30%, corresponding to 1·84% (1·69-1·97) of all summer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Our results showed the deleterious effects of UHIs on mortality and highlighted the health benefits of increasing tree coverage to cool urban environments, which would also result in more sustainable and climate-resilient cities.

FUNDING

GoGreenRoutes, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Institute for Global Health, UK Medical Research Council, European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

Maternal Exposure to PM2.5 and the Risk of Congenital Heart Defects in 1.4 Million Births: A Nationwide Surveillance-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence remains limited about the association of maternal exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (airborne particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm [PM2.5]) with fetal congenital heart defects (CHDs) in highly polluted regions, and few studies have focused on preconception exposure.

METHODS

Using a nationwide surveillance-based case-control design in China, we examined the association between maternal exposure to PM2.5 during periconception (defined as 3 months before conception until 3 months into pregnancy) and risk of CHD in offspring. The study included 1 434 998 births involving 7335 CHDs from 2014 through 2017 on the basis of the National Population-Based Birth Defects Surveillance System, covering 30 provinces, municipalities, or municipal districts in China. We assigned maternal PM2.5 exposure during the periconception period to each participant using satellite-based PM2.5 concentrations at 1-km spatial resolution. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to calculate the multivariable-adjusted odds ratio and 95% CI for CHDs in offspring associated with maternal PM2.5 exposure, and the exposure-response association was investigated using restricted cubic spline analysis. Subgroup or sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify factors that may modify the association.

RESULTS

The average maternal exposure to PM2.5 levels across all participants was 56.51 μg/m3 (range, 10.95 to 182.13 μg/m3). For each 10 μg/m³ increase in maternal PM2.5 exposure, the risk of CHDs in offspring was increased by 2% (odds ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00 to 1.05]), and septal defect was the most influenced subtype (odds ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.08]). The effect of PM2.5 on CHD risk was more pronounced during the preconception period. Mothers <35 years of age, those living in northern China, and those living in low-income areas were more susceptible to PM2.5 exposure than their counterparts (all P<0.05). PM2.5 exposure showed a linear association with total CHDs or specific CHD types.

CONCLUSIONS

High maternal PM2.5 exposure, especially during the preconception period, increases risk of certain types of CHD in offspring. These findings are useful for CHD prevention and highlight the public health benefits of improving air quality in China and other highly polluted regions.

Burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in North Africa and Middle East countries, 1990 to 2019: Results from the GBD study 2019

Objective

To provide estimates on the regional and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019 in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region.

Methods and materials

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were used. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), death, incidence, and prevalence rates were categorized by sex and age groups in the NAME region, in 21 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Decomposition analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of responsible factors in the emergence of new cases. Data are presented as point estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

In the NAME region, TBL cancer caused 15,396 and 57,114 deaths in women and men, respectively, in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 0.7% (95% UI -20.6 to 24.1) and reached 16.8 per 100,000 (14.9 to 19.0) in 2019. All the age-standardized indices had a decreasing trend in men and an increasing trend in women from 1990 to 2019. Turkey (34.9 per 100,000 [27.6 to 43.5]) and Sudan (8.0 per 100,000 [5.2 to 12.5]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) in 2019, respectively. The highest and lowest absolute slopes of change in ASPR, from 1990 to 2019, were seen in Bahrain (-50.0% (-63.6 to -31.7)) and the United Arab Emirates (-1.2% (-34.1 to 53.8)), respectively. The number of deaths attributable to risk factors was 58,816 (51,709 to 67,323) in 2019 and increased by 136.5%. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth and age structure change positively contributed to new incident cases. More than 80% of DALYs could be decreased by controlling risk factors, particularly tobacco use.

Conclusion

The incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of TBL cancer increased, and the death rate remained unchanged from 1990 to 2019. All the indices and contribution of risk factors decreased in men but increased in women. Tobacco is still the leading risk factor. Early diagnosis and tobacco cessation policies should be improved.

Modelling the air quality benefits of EU climate mitigation policies using two different PM2.5-related health impact methodologies

The EU, seeking to be a global leader in the fight against climate change, is moving ahead with ambitious policies to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions. In this context, the Fit for 55 package (FF55) is a set of proposals to revise and update EU legislation, to ensure that policies are in line with the climate goals of cutting emissions by at least 55% by 2030. Whilst these policies are designed for climate purposes, they will have positive side-effects (co-benefits) on air quality. Separately, additional policies are also in place to reduce emissions of related air pollutants and to improve air quality concentrations on EU territory. In this work, through a modelling study, we analyse the benefits of these policies via the health benefits arising from the resulting reductions in yearly average PM2.5 concentrations. Results are analysed by assessing and comparing morbidity and mortality impacts as computed using both the HRAPIE (Health risks of air pollution in Europe, WHO, as implemented in the CaRBonH model) and the GBD (Global Burden of Disease, as implemented in FASST-GBD model) approaches. Even when considering the uncertainty and variability in the results obtained using the two approaches, it is clear that EU policies can bring health and economic benefit in EU, with several Billions of Euro of benefits both in terms of morbidity and mortality indicators.

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of neonatal disorders and their specific causes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2024

BACKGROUND

Neonatal health is a cornerstone for the healthy development of the next generation and a driving force for the progress of population and society in the future. Updated information on the burden of neonatal disorders (NDs) are of great importance for evidence-based health care planning in China, whereas such an estimate has been lacking at national level. This study aims to estimate the temporal trends and the attributable burdens of selected risk factors of NDs and their specific causes in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the possible trends between 2020 and 2024.

METHODS

Data was explored from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. Six measures were used: incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. The specific causes of NDs mainly included neonatal preterm birth (NPB), neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma (NE), neonatal sepsis and other neonatal infections (NS), and hemolytic disease and other neonatal jaundice (HD). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast disease burden from 2020 to 2024.

RESULTS

There were notable decreasing trends in the number of deaths (84.3%), incidence (30.3%), DALYs (73.5%) and YLLs (84.3%), while increasing trends in the number of prevalence (102.3%) and YLDs (172.7%) from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The corresponding age-standardized rates changed by -74.9%, 0.1%, -65.8%, -74.9%, 86.8% and 155.1%, respectively. Four specific causes of NDs followed some similar and different patterns. The prediction results of the ARIMA model shown that all measures still maintained the original trends in the next five years. Low birth weight, short gestation, ambient particulate matter pollution and household air pollution from solid fuels were the four leading risk factors.

CONCLUSION

The health burden due to NDs is declining and is likely to continue to decline in the future in China. Delaying the increasing burden of disability may be the next target of concern. Targeted prevention and control strategies for specific causes of NDs are urgently needed to reduce the disease burden.

Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Māori:non-Māori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan

BACKGROUND

The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Māori:non-Māori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs.

RESULTS

The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Māori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Māori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Māori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Māori:non-Māori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males.

CONCLUSION

A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

The effect of occupational exposure to welding fumes on trachea, bronchus and lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) are the producers of the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury (WHO/ILO Joint Estimates). Welding fumes have been classified as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1) by the WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in IARC Monograph 118; this assessment found sufficient evidence from studies in humans that welding fumes are a cause of lung cancer. In this article, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of parameters for estimating the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to occupational exposure to welding fumes, to inform the development of WHO/ILO Joint Estimates on this burden of disease (if considered feasible).

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse estimates of the effect of any (or high) occupational exposure to welding fumes, compared with no (or low) occupational exposure to welding fumes, on trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (three outcomes: prevalence, incidence, and mortality).

DATA SOURCES

We developed and published a protocol, applying the Navigation Guide as an organizing systematic review framework where feasible. We searched electronic databases for potentially relevant records from published and unpublished studies, including Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL and CISDOC. We also searched grey literature databases, Internet search engines, and organizational websites; hand-searched reference lists of previous systematic reviews; and consulted additional experts.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY AND CRITERIA

We included working-age (≥15 years) workers in the formal and informal economy in any Member State of WHO and/or ILO but excluded children (<15 years) and unpaid domestic workers. We included randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, and other non-randomized intervention studies with an estimate of the effect of any (or high) occupational exposure to welding fumes, compared with occupational exposure to no (or low) welding fumes, on trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (prevalence, incidence, and mortality).

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

At least two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts against the eligibility criteria at a first review stage and full texts of potentially eligible records at a second stage, followed by extraction of data from qualifying studies. If studies reported odds ratios, these were converted to risk ratios (RRs). We combined all RRs using random-effects meta-analysis. Two or more review authors assessed the risk of bias, quality of evidence, and strength of evidence, using the Navigation Guide tools and approaches adapted to this project. Subgroup (e.g., by WHO region and sex) and sensitivity analyses (e.g., studies judged to be of "high"/"probably high" risk of bias compared with "low"/"probably low" risk of bias) were conducted.

RESULTS

Forty-one records from 40 studies (29 case control studies and 11 cohort studies) met the inclusion criteria, comprising over 1,265,512 participants (≥22,761 females) in 21 countries in three WHO regions (Region of the Americas, European Region, and Western Pacific Region). The exposure and outcome were generally assessed by job title or self-report, and medical or administrative records, respectively. Across included studies, risk of bias was overall generally probably low/low, with risk judged high or probably high for several studies in the domains for misclassification bias and confounding. Our search identified no evidence on the outcome of having trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (prevalence). Compared with no (or low) occupational exposure to welding fumes, any (or high) occupational exposure to welding fumes increased the risk of acquiring trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (incidence) by an estimated 48 % (RR 1.48, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.29-1.70, 23 studies, 57,931 participants, I² 24 %; moderate quality of evidence). Compared with no (or low) occupational exposure to welding fumes, any (or high) occupational exposure to welding fumes increased the risk dying from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (mortality) by an estimated 27 % (RR 1.27, 95 % CI 1.04-1.56, 3 studies, 8,686 participants, I² 0 %; low quality of evidence). Our subgroup analyses found no evidence for difference by WHO region and sex. Sensitivity analyses supported the main analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, for incidence and mortality of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer, we judged the existing body of evidence for human data as "sufficient evidence of harmfulness" and "limited evidence of harmfulness", respectively. Occupational exposure to welding fumes increased the risk of acquiring and dying from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Producing estimates for the burden of trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to any (or high) occupational exposure to welding fumes appears evidence-based, and the pooled effect estimates presented in this systematic review could be used as input data for the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates. PROTOCOL IDENTIFIER: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106089.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.