Averting obesity and type 2 diabetes in India through sugar-sweetened beverage taxation: an economic-epidemiologic modeling study

County Rurality and Incidence and Prevalence of Diagnosed Diabetes in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To examine differences in the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed diabetes by county rurality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This observational, cross-sectional study used US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data from 2004 through 2019 for county estimates of incidence and prevalence of diagnosed diabetes. County rurality was based on 6 levels (large central metro counties [most urban] to noncore counties [most rural]). Weighted least squares regression was used to relate rurality with diabetes incidence rates (IRs; per 1000 adults) and prevalence (percentage) in adults aged 20 years or older after adjusting for county-level sociodemographic factors (eg, food environment, health care professionals, inactivity, obesity).

RESULTS

Overall, in 3148 counties and county equivalents, the crude IR and prevalence of diabetes were highest in noncore counties. In age and sex ratio-adjusted models, the IR of diabetes increased monotonically with increasing rurality (P<.001), whereas prevalence had a weak, nonmonotonic but statistically significant increase (P=.002). Further adjustment for sociodemographic factors including food environment, health care professionals, inactivity, and obesity attenuated differences in incidence across rurality levels, and reversed the pattern for prevalence (prevalence ratios [vs large central metro] ranged from 0.98 [95% CI, 0.97 to 0.99] for large fringe metro to 0.94 [95% CI, 0.93 to 0.96] for noncore). In region-stratified analyses adjusted for sociodemographic factors including inactivity and obesity, increasing rurality was inversely associated with incidence in the Midwest and West only and inversely associated with prevalence in all regions.

CONCLUSION

The crude incidence and prevalence of diagnosed diabetes increased with increasing county rurality. After accounting for sociodemographic factors including food environment, health care professionals, inactivity, and obesity, county rurality showed no association with incidence and an inverse association with prevalence. Therefore, interventions targeting modifiable sociodemographic factors may reduce diabetes disparities by region and rurality.

Evaluating the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax on overweight, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in an affluent Asian setting: A willingness-to-pay survey and simulation analysis

BACKGROUND

The potential health effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been insufficiently examined in Asian contexts. This study aimed to assess the impact of SSB taxation on the prevalence of obesity/overweight and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Hong Kong using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey and simulation analysis.

METHODS

A random telephone survey was conducted with 1000 adults from May to June 2020. We used a contingent valuation approach to assess individuals' WTP for SSBs under four tax payment scenarios (5%, 10%, 40%, and 50% of the current market price). Based on the WTP, a simulation analysis was conducted to project changes in SSB purchase and associated reductions in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and T2DM over a 10-year simulation period.

FINDINGS

When 5% and 10% taxation rates were introduced, approximately one-third of the population were unwilling to maintain their SSB purchase. Our simulation demonstrated a gradual decline in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and diabetes with a more pronounced decrease when higher taxation rates were introduced. 10% taxation resulted in a mean reduction of 1532.7 cases of overweight/obesity per 100 thousand population at the sixth year, while T2DM prevalence decreased by 267.1 (0.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the effects of an SSB tax on purchase behaviors and health outcomes in an affluent Asia setting, with a more pronounced influence on adult population. These findings are expected to inform policymakers in making decisions regarding an effective and equitable tax rate on SSBs.

Estimated reduction in obesity prevalence and costs of a 20% and 30% ad valorem excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with obesity, metabolic diseases, and incremental healthcare costs. Given their health consequences, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that countries implement taxes on SSB. Over the last 10 years, obesity prevalence has almost doubled in Brazil, yet, in 2016, the Brazilian government cut the existing federal SSB taxes to their current 4%. Since 2022, a bill to impose a 20% tax on SSB has been under discussion in the Brazilian Senate. To simulate the potential impact of increasing taxes on SSB in Brazil, we aimed to estimate the price-elasticity of SSB and the potential impact of a new 20% or 30% excise SSB tax on consumption, obesity prevalence, and cost savings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using household purchases data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey (POF) from 2017/2018, we estimated constant elasticity regressions. We used a log-log specification by income level for all beverage categories: (1) sugar-sweetened beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages; (3) unsweetened beverages; and (4) low-calorie or artificially sweetened beverages. We estimated the adult nationwide baseline intake for each beverage category using 24-h dietary recall data collected in 2017/2018. Taking group one as the taxed beverages, we applied the price and cross-price elasticities to the baseline intake data, we obtained changes in caloric intake. The caloric reduction was introduced into an individual dynamic model to estimate changes in weight and obesity prevalence. No benefits on cost savings were modeled during the first 3 years of intervention to account for the time lag in obesity cases to reduce costs. We multiplied the reduction in obesity cases during 7 years by the obesity costs per capita to predict the costs savings attributable to the sweetened beverage tax. SSB price elasticities were higher among the lowest tertile of income (-1.24) than in the highest income tertile (-1.13), and cross-price elasticities suggest SSB were weakly substituted by milk, water, and 100% fruit juices. We estimated a caloric change of -17.3 kcal/day/person under a 20% excise tax and -25.9 kcal/day/person under a 30% tax. Ten years after implementation, a 20% tax is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 6.7%; 9.1% for a 30% tax. These reductions translate into a -2.8 million and -3.8 million obesity cases for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively, and a reduction of $US 13.3 billion and $US 17.9 billion in obesity costs over 10 years for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively. Study limitations include using a quantile distribution method to adjust self-reported baseline weight and height, which could be insufficient to correct for reporting bias; also, weight, height, and physical activity were assumed to be steady over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding a 20% to 30% excise tax on top of Brazil's current federal tax could help to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed beverages, empty calories, and body weight while avoiding large health-related costs. Given the recent cuts to SSB taxes in Brazil, a program to revise and implement excise taxes could prove beneficial for the Brazilian population.

Economic Evaluations of Obesity-Targeted Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) Taxes-A Review to Identify Methodological Issues

INTRODUCTION

Economic evaluations of public health interventions like sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes face difficulties similar to those previously identified in other public health areas. This stems from challenges in accurately attributing effects, capturing outcomes and costs beyond health, and integrating equity effects. This review examines how these challenges were addressed in economic evaluations of SSB taxes.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to identify economic evaluations of SSB taxes focused on addressing obesity in adults, published up to February 2021. The methodological challenges examined include measuring effects, valuing outcomes, assessing costs, and incorporating equity.

RESULTS

Fourteen economic evaluations of SSB taxes were identified. Across these evaluations, estimating SSB tax effects was uncertain due to a reliance on indirect evidence that was less robust than evidence from randomised controlled trials. Health outcomes, like quality-adjusted life years, along with a healthcare system perspective for costs, dominated the evaluations of SSB taxes, with a limited focus on broader non-health consequences. Equity analyses were common but employed significantly different approaches and exhibited varying degrees of quality.

CONCLUSION

Addressing the methodological challenges remains an issue for economic evaluations of public health interventions like SSB taxes, suggesting the need for increased attention on those issues in future studies. Dedicated methodological guidelines, in particular addressing the measurement of effect and incorporation of equity impacts, are warranted.

Estimating the potential impact of a health tax on the demand for unhealthy food and beverages and on tax revenue in India

Foods high in fat, sugar or salt are important contributors to the rising burden of non-communicable diseases globally and in India. Health taxes (HTs) have been used by over 70 countries as an effective tool for reducing consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, the potential impacts of HTs on consumption and on revenues have not been estimated in India. This paper aims to estimate the potential impact of health taxes on the demand for sugar, SSBs and foods high in fat, sugar or salt (HFSS) in India while exploring its impact on tax revenues. PE of sugar was estimated using Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Consumer Price Index data while price elasticities for SSBs and HFSS were obtained from literature. The reduction in demand was estimated for an additional 10-30% HT added to the current goods and services tax, for varying levels of price elasticities. The results show that for manufacturers of sweets and confectionaries who buy sugar in bulk and assuming a higher price elasticity of -0.70, 20% additional HT (total tax 48%) would result in 13-18% decrease in the demand for sugar used for confectionaries and sweets. For SSBs, HT of 10-30% would result in 7-30% decline in the demand of SSBs. For HFSS food products, 10-30% HT would result in 5-24% decline in the demand for HFSS products. These additional taxes would increase tax revenues for the government by 12-200% across different scenarios. Taxing unhealthy foods is likely to reduce demand, while increasing government revenues for reinvestment back into public health programmes and policies that may reduce obesity and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in India.

A comparative analysis of the cost-utility of the Philippine tax on sweetened beverages as proposed and as implemented

Background

In response to increasing overweight and obesity, the Philippine government introduced a tax on sweetened beverages (SBs) in 2018. Evidence suggests that the beverage industry influenced the final tax design, making it more favourable for industry than the initially proposed bill. This study aimed to compare the relative health and economic benefits of the proposed SB tax with the implemented SB tax.

Methods

Philippine dietary consumption data were combined with price elasticity data from Mexico and data from Australia adapted to the Philippine context to estimate reductions in SB purchases and changes in body mass index (BMI) following the implementation of the tax. A multi-state, multiple-cohort Markov model was used to estimate the change in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) due to reduction in the epidemiology of obesity-related diseases, healthcare cost savings and government taxation revenue, resulting from both the proposed and implemented tax policies, over the lifetime of the 2018 Philippine population.

Findings

The proposed and implemented taxes were modelled to be dominant (cost-saving and improving health). Intervention costs were modelled to be PHP305.2 million (M) (approximately US$6M). Compared to the proposed tax, the implemented tax was modelled to result in a 43.0% smaller reduction in targeted beverage intake (51.1 ml/person/day vs. 89.7 ml/person/day), a 43.5% smaller reduction in BMI (0.35 kg/m2 vs. 0.62 kg/m2), 39.7% fewer HALYs gained (2,503,118 vs. 4,149,030), 39.9% fewer healthcare cost savings (PHP16.4 billion (B) vs. PHP27.3B), and 27.7% less government taxation revenue (PHP426.3B vs. PHP589.4B).

Interpretation

While the implemented tax in the Philippines will benefit population health, it is likely to yield less benefit than the proposed tax. The influence of the food and beverage industry on policy processes has the potential to lessen the benefits of population NCD prevention policies.

Funding

OH was supported to conduct this research by an Australian Government Research Training Program Stipend Scholarship. The funding body had no role in data collection and analysis, or manuscript preparation.

The Potential Effect of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Tax on Obesity Prevalence in Tanzania

Background

Obesity and the associated non-communicable diseases contribute significantly to the disease burden in Tanzania. Obesity can be attributed to the consumption of Sugar Sweetened Beverages (SSB) due to their high sugar content that leads to high caloric intakes. This study estimates the effect of SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity.

Methods

A mathematical model that compares the reference population which is unchanged and a counterfactual population in which tax intervention has been introduced is developed. Changes in price and consumption of SSBs, and subsequent changes in energy intake are applied to estimate the body mass change by age groups. The change in body mass by age groups is merged with the reference population to estimate changes in body mass index and obesity.

Results

Imposing a 20% SSB tax in Tanzania is estimated to reduce the average overall energy intake by 76.1 kJ per person per day. This change is associated with an overall reduction of prevalence of obesity by 6.6%; and by 12.9% and 5.2% in adult males and adult females, respectively. The number of obese people will potentially decrease by about 47,000 among adult males and about 85,000 among adult females from the current levels.

Conclusions

The SSB tax is a potential strategy to complement efforts to reduce obesity prevalence in Tanzania. The revenue generated from the tax should be channelled towards public health promotion programs.

Profiling ultra-processed foods in Thailand: sales trend, consumer expenditure and nutritional quality

BACKGROUND

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) are associated with adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to analyse the national trends in retail sales, consumer expenditure and nutritional quality of UPFs in Thailand.

METHODS

The study used data from the Euromonitor Passport database for analysis of retail sales and consumer expenditure, and from the Mintel Global New Products Database for nutritional analysis using the WHO Southeast Asian Region nutrient profile model.

RESULTS

The study found the highest per capita sales volume and value of UPFs in 2021 were sauces, dressings & condiments (8.4 kg/capita) and carbonated soft drinks (27.1 L/capita), respectively. However, functional & flavoured water, ready-made meals and baked goods had the highest observed (2012-2021) and expected (2021-2026) sales growth. Supermarkets were responsible for most of the UPF sales since 2012, but convenience stores had larger growth in retail values. Growth in consumer expenditure per capita on UPFs from 2012 to 2020, ranged between 12.7% and 34%, and till 2026 is forecast to grow between 26% and 30%. More than half of UPFs exceeded at least one nutrient cutoff, 59.3% for total fats, 24.8% for saturated fats, 68.2% for total sugars and 94.3% for sodium.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a need for regulatory and non-regulatory measures such as UPF taxation and marketing restrictions, and market incentives for producing non-UPFs. A system for regularly monitoring and evaluating healthiness (both nutritional and processing aspects) of food products, especially UPFs, is required.

Effect of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on sugars intake and dental caries: an umbrella review of a global perspective

BACKGROUND

As part of the Global Strategy on Oral health, the World Health Organization (WHO) is exploring cost-effective interventions for oral health, including taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). To inform this process, this umbrella review aimed to identify the best available estimates pertaining to the impact of SSB taxation on the reduction of sugars intake, and the sugars-caries dose-response, such that estimates of the impact of SSB taxation on averting dental caries in both high (HIC) and low and middle (LMIC) countries be available.

METHODS

The questions addressed were: (1) what are the effects of SSB taxation on consumption of SSBs and (2) sugars? (3) What is the effect on caries of decreasing sugars? and (4) what is the likely impact of a 20% volumetric SSB tax on the number of active caries prevented over 10 years? Data sources included PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, Dentistry and Oral Sciences Source, Cochrane Library, Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Systematic Review Register, and PROSPERO. The review was conducted with reference to JBI guidelines. The quality of included systematic reviews was assessed using AMSTAR to identify best evidence.

RESULTS

From 419 systematic reviews identified for questions 1 & 2, and 103 for question 3, 48 (Questions 1 & 2) and 21 (Question 3) underwent full text screening, yielding 14 and five included reviews respectively. Best available data indicated a 10% tax would reduce SSB intake by 10.0% (95% CI: -5.0, 14.7%) in HIC and by 9% (range -6.0 to 12.0%) in LMIC, and that a 20% tax would reduce free sugars intake on average by 4.0 g/d in LMIC and 4.4 g/d in HIC. Based on best available dose response data, this could reduce the number of teeth with caries per adults (HIC and LMIC) by 0.03 and caries occurrence in children by 2.7% (LMIC) and 2.9% (HIC), over a 10-year period.

CONCLUSION

Best available data suggest a 20% volumetric SSB tax would have a modest impact on prevalence and severity of dental caries in both HIC and LMIC.

Dietary sugar consumption and health: umbrella review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the quality of evidence, potential biases, and validity of all available studies on dietary sugar consumption and health outcomes.

DESIGN

Umbrella review of existing meta-analyses.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and hand searching of reference lists.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, or cross sectional studies that evaluated the effect of dietary sugar consumption on any health outcomes in humans free from acute or chronic diseases.

RESULTS

The search identified 73 meta-analyses and 83 health outcomes from 8601 unique articles, including 74 unique outcomes in meta-analyses of observational studies and nine unique outcomes in meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Significant harmful associations between dietary sugar consumption and 18 endocrine/metabolic outcomes, 10 cardiovascular outcomes, seven cancer outcomes, and 10 other outcomes (neuropsychiatric, dental, hepatic, osteal, and allergic) were detected. Moderate quality evidence suggested that the highest versus lowest dietary sugar consumption was associated with increased body weight (sugar sweetened beverages) (class IV evidence) and ectopic fatty accumulation (added sugars) (class IV evidence). Low quality evidence indicated that each serving/week increment of sugar sweetened beverage consumption was associated with a 4% higher risk of gout (class III evidence) and each 250 mL/day increment of sugar sweetened beverage consumption was associated with a 17% and 4% higher risk of coronary heart disease (class II evidence) and all cause mortality (class III evidence), respectively. In addition, low quality evidence suggested that every 25 g/day increment of fructose consumption was associated with a 22% higher risk of pancreatic cancer (class III evidence).

CONCLUSIONS

High dietary sugar consumption is generally more harmful than beneficial for health, especially in cardiometabolic disease. Reducing the consumption of free sugars or added sugars to below 25 g/day (approximately 6 teaspoons/day) and limiting the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages to less than one serving/week (approximately 200-355 mL/week) are recommended to reduce the adverse effect of sugars on health.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022300982.

Consumption of sweetened beverages is associated with the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Brazilian adults (CUME project)

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To evaluate the association between the energy consumption of sweetened beverages (SBs) adjusted for daily energy intake and the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a prospective study with 2480 type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)-free Cohort of Universities of Minas Gerais (CUME) participants at baseline and 2-4 years of follow-up. A longitudinal analysis was performed with generalized equation estimation to verify the effect of SB consumption, adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables, on the incidence of T2DM. The incidence of T2DM was 2.78%. The median calorie intake of daily SB consumption adjusted for energy was 47.7 kcal/day. Participants with the highest consumption of SBs (≥47.7 kcal/day) were 63% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.63; p value-0.049) more likely to acquire T2DM over time compared to the lowest consumption (<47.7 kcal/day).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher energy consumption from SBs favored a higher incidence of T2DM among CUME participants. The results reinforce the need for marketing restrictions on these foods and taxation to reduce the consumption of these beverages to prevent T2DM and other chronic noncommunicable diseases.

Model Choice for Quantitative Health Impact Assessment and Modelling: An Expert Consultation and Narrative Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a widely used process that aims to identify the health impacts, positive or negative, of a policy or intervention that is not necessarily placed in the health sector. Most HIAs are done prospectively and aim to forecast expected health impacts under assumed policy implementation. HIAs may quantitatively and/ or qualitatively assess health impacts, with this study focusing on the former. A variety of quantitative modelling methods exist that are used for forecasting health impacts, however, they differ in application area, data requirements, assumptions, risk modelling, complexities, limitations, strengths, and comprehensibility. We reviewed relevant models, so as to provide public health researchers with considerations for HIA model choice.

METHODS

Based on an HIA expert consultation, combined with a narrative literature review, we identified the most relevant models that can be used for health impact forecasting. We narratively and comparatively reviewed the models, according to their fields of application, their configuration and purposes, counterfactual scenarios, underlying assumptions, health risk modelling, limitations and strengths.

RESULTS

Seven relevant models for health impacts forecasting were identified, consisting of (i) comparative risk assessment (CRA), (ii) time series analysis (TSA), (iii) compartmental models (CMs), (iv) structural models (SMs), (v) agent-based models (ABMs), (vi) microsimulations (MS), and (vii) artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML). These models represent a variety in approaches and vary in the fields of HIA application, complexity and comprehensibility. We provide a set of criteria for HIA model choice. Researchers must consider that model input assumptions match the available data and parameter structures, the available resources, and that model outputs match the research question, meet expectations and are comprehensible to end-users.

CONCLUSION

The reviewed models have specific characteristics, related to available data and parameter structures, computational implementation, interpretation and comprehensibility, which the researcher should critically consider before HIA model choice.

Determinants of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption Among Adults in Perambalur District of India

Background Sugar is a ubiquitous element in processed meals and is a major source of the energy we derive from them. The risk of obesity and other chronic conditions, such as high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, tooth destruction, as well as dental cavities, increases proportionally with the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). This study intends to determine the prevalence of SSB intake among adults in the Perambalur area of Tamil Nadu, India, as well as the factors that influence it. Methodology We surveyed 1007 individuals using a cross-sectional design from June to November 2022. We included residents who were at least 18 years old and less than 80 years old. Using a convenience sample method, we gathered responses from the public in the urban and rural field practice areas of a teaching medical college in the district of Perambalur, India. We conducted in-person interviews to get data regarding the consumption of SSBs. Among other socio-demographic information, the participants' names, ages, religions, levels of education and employment, household incomes, family compositions, marital statuses, lifestyle behaviors, and comorbid conditions were also gathered. We measured the SSB consumption frequency and duration, and we also considered the contexts in which they consumed SSBs. We examined the factors that play a role in SSB consumption and questioned the participants' familiarity with SSBs' constituents, adverse effects, and cumulative toll. Besides examining the effects of SSB use, the research also explores the possibility of reducing or stopping it altogether. Results The prevalence of SSB use among the current study population was 96.3%. Half of the population has consumed SSBs, between 100 and 200 ml, for over 10 years. Taste and peer pressure are the primary reasons for facilitating SSBs, whereas the media has a minor impact. Most of the population (69%) began consuming SSBs, mostly during vacations and at parties. About one-fifth of the population experiences negative consequences after ingesting SSBs, while only half of the population is aware of the contents of SSBs. Likewise, just 50% of the population is aware of the long-term implications of SSBs. Nearly 16.7% of the population attempted to stop using SSBs. Being overweight, belonging to a high socioeconomic class, and dwelling in a rural location are risk factors related to the consumption of SSBs. Conclusion The prevalence of SSB use among the current study population is exceptionally high. Being overweight, belonging to a high socioeconomic class, and dwelling in a rural location are risk factors related to the consumption of SSBs. There is a need to educate the public about the short- and long-term negative effects of consuming SSBs. Government and non-government entities must work together to generate public behavior change communication.

Heterogeneity of Dietary practices in India: current status and implications for the prevention and control of type 2 diabetes

Diet is one of the important modifiable factors in prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D), making it important to understand geographical variations of food consumption pattern, their similarities and differences across various regions. Asian Indian diet patterns are mostly carbohydrate-based and with vast regional diversity. Staple food, food groups consumed, meat consumption pattern, type of fermented foods, food preparations, type of cooking oil used and food ingredients vary with different regions of India. There has been a slow transition from consumption of coarse grains to refined grains owing to socio-economic, cultural and other factors. Consumption of fruits and vegetables, fats, ready-to-eat foods and sugar is higher in urban population whereas consumption of carbohydrates in the form of cereals and millets is higher among the rural population. Cereal grains followed by pulses and legumes are main sources of protein, given that the frequency of meat consumption is low even among non-vegetarians in India compared to other countries. Overall, there is a tendency towards consumption of calorie-dense foods at the cost of food diversity, which may also result in micronutrient deficiencies as well as development of T2D and related metabolic diseases. Public health strategies and policy level decisions involving stakeholders with diet and lifestyle modification as focal points are absolute priorities to prevent and manage the burden of obesity and T2D in India.

Prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension among the adults in South Asia: A multinomial logit model

Hypertension has been the most common non-communicable disease in low and middle-income countries for the past two decades, increasing cardiovascular and renal disease risk. Urbanization, aging, dietary and lifestyle changes, high illiteracy rates, poor access to health facilities, poverty, high costs of drugs, and social stress have contributed to an increase in the prevalence of hypertension in developing countries. Nonetheless, little is known about the comprehensive risk factors associated with prehypertension and hypertension among economically active adult populations of South Asia, such as India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This paper uses the Demographic and Health Survey data of 637,396 individuals from India (2019-21), 8,924 from Nepal (2016), and 8,613 from Bangladesh (2017-18) to examine the prevalence and driver of prehypertension and hypertension. We analyze the prevalence of prehypertension because it leads to hypertension and is directly related to cardiovascular disease, and many people live with it for prolonged periods without realizing it. The paper finds, among other things, that the prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension among adults (18-49 years) is 43.2 and 14.9% in India, 35.1% and 19.8% in Bangladesh, and 25.2% and 13.8% in Nepal, respectively. Better educated, wealthy individuals living in urban areas of developing economies in the South Asian region are more likely to have prehypertension and hypertension. The paper suggests the urgent need to launch preventive programs to reduce prehypertension before it develops to be hypertension as a precautionary measure. Thus, such measures shall help to prevent hypertension, thereby improving the overall wellbeing of individuals and families.

The O-GlcNAc cycling in neurodevelopment and associated diseases

Proper neuronal development is essential to growth and adult brain function. Alterations at any step of this highly organized sequence of events, due to genetic mutations or environmental factors, triggers brain malformations, which are leading causes of diseases including epilepsy, intellectual disabilities, and many others. The role of glycosylation in neuronal development has been emphasized for many years, notably in studying human congenital disorders of glycosylation (CDGs). These diseases highlight that genetic defects in glycosylation pathways are almost always associated with severe neurological abnormalities, suggesting that glycosylation plays an essential role in early brain development. Congenital disorders of O-GlcNAcylation are no exception, and all mutations of the O-GlcNAc transferase (OGT) are associated with X-linked intellectual disabilities (XLID). In addition, mouse models and in vitro mechanistic studies have reinforced the essential role of O-GlcNAcylation in neuronal development and signaling. In this review, we give an overview of the role of O-GlcNAcylation in this critical physiological process and emphasize the consequences of its dysregulation.

The Potential Impact of Different Taxation Scenarios towards Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Overweight and Obesity in Brazil: A Modeling Study

The adoption of fiscal policies based on the specific taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been recommended by international health agencies, as they are measures that potentially reduce consumption. This study is an ex ante risk comparison that estimates the impact of three tax scenarios (20, 25, and 30%) with a 100% pass-on rate to SSBs on the prevalence of high weight and obesity in the Brazilian population. Data on the consumption habits, weight, and height of 46,164 adults aged 20 years or over from Brazilian recent national surveys were used. The shift in consumption after taxation was estimated based on the price elasticity of the demand. The percentage changes in overweight for 20, 25, and 30% taxation were 1.84% (95%CI: 1.82; 1.86), 1.89% (95%CI: 1.87; 1.90), and 2.25% (95%CI: 2.24; 2.27), respectively. The change in the prevalence of obesity was 1.93% (95%CI: 1.87; 2.00), 2.90% (95%CI: 2.80; 3.02), and 4.16% (95%CI: 4.01; 4.32), respectively. Taxes on SSBs may have a more favorable result among the heaviest consumers, who are young adults (20-29 years), especially men, thereby promoting a greater reduction in the prevalence of high weight and obesity.

Application of decision analytical models to diabetes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Decision analytical models (DAMs) are used to develop an evidence base for impact and health economic evaluations, including evaluating interventions to improve diabetes care and health services-an increasingly important area in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the disease burden is high, health systems are weak, and resources are constrained. This study examines how DAMs-in particular, Markov, system dynamic, agent-based, discrete event simulation, and hybrid models-have been applied to investigate non-pharmacological population-based (NP) interventions and how to advance their adoption in diabetes research in LMICs.

METHODS

We systematically searched peer-reviewed articles published in English from inception to 8th August 2022 in PubMed, Cochrane, and the reference list of reviewed articles. Articles were summarised and appraised based on publication details, model design and processes, modelled interventions, and model limitations using the Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERs) checklist.

RESULTS

Twenty-three articles were fully screened, and 17 met the inclusion criteria of this qualitative review. The majority of the included studies were Markov cohort (7, 41%) and microsimulation models (7, 41%) simulating non-pharmacological population-based diabetes interventions among Asian sub-populations (9, 53%). Eleven (65%) of the reviewed studies evaluated the cost-effectiveness of interventions, reporting the evaluation perspective and the time horizon used to track cost and effect. Few studies (6,35%) reported how they validated models against local data.

CONCLUSIONS

Although DAMs have been increasingly applied in LMICs to evaluate interventions to control diabetes, there is a need to advance the use of DAMs to evaluate NP diabetes policy interventions in LMICs, particularly DAMs that use local research data. Moreover, the reporting of input data, calibration and validation that underlies DAMs of diabetes in LMICs needs to be more transparent and credible.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

Impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on the burden of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: A modeling study

AIM

To model the impact of a 20 % tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the disease burden of T2DM among Brazilian adults.

METHODS

This is an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20 % tax on SSB and projected the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of T2DM over a 20-year period (2019 to 2039). Using recent national data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs and diabetes relative risk we estimated changes on T2DM burden.

RESULTS

With a 20 % tax on SSBs, after 10 years, we estimated a reduction of 37,303 new cases of T2DM for men and 56,757 for women; 184,129 prevalent cases for men and 219,236 for women; and 5,386 and 6,075 deaths for men and women, respectively. After 20 years, 8.6 % and 12.4 % new cases of T2DM will have been prevented, 4.0 % and 5.5 % prevalent cases, and 13.7 % and 12.7 % deaths among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB taxes have the potential to reduce the burden of and deaths attributable to T2DM. Our results show that a fiscal policy may significantly impact strategic plans to tackle noncommunicable diseases.

Price elasticity and affordability of aerated or sugar-sweetened beverages in India: implications for taxation

BACKGROUND

The sale of aerated or sugar-sweetened beverages (ASBs) has been consistently growing in India which has also experienced a major increase in non-communicable diseases. This study estimates the price elasticities of ASBs by different household-income groups in India and examine the trends in their affordability.

METHODS

The price elasticity for ASBs were estimated using a nationally representative household sample survey on consumption of ASBs in India and with Deaton's method which is robust to self-reported household expenditure surveys. Trends in affordability of ASBs were estimated using relative income price (RIP) which measured the proportion of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) required to purchase 100 L of ASBs in a given year. The elasticity parameters were used to estimate the incremental tax needed for a 10% reduction in ASB consumption.

RESULTS

The own-price elasticity of ASBs is - 0.94 in the overall sample and varied between - 1.04 to - 0.83 from low- to high-income households. There has been an annual average decline of about 6.8% in RIP of ASBs or an increase in their affordability over the last 13 years. Increasing the compensation cess on ASBs under the current Goods and Services Tax (GST) to 29%, will have the effect of decreasing ASB consumption by 10% and increasing the tax revenue by about 27%.

CONCLUSION

The taxation policy on ASBs in India has largely been ineffective at increasing the real retail prices of ASBs as a result of which ASB consumption grew. ASBs should be classified along with other unhealthy products like tobacco and alcohol as demerit products for the purpose of taxation and their taxes should be regularly increased sufficiently enough to compensates for both general price inflation and income growth so as to decreases their affordability.

Effects of public policies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review of global literature

OBJECTIVES

Given the growing interest worldwide in applying public policies to improve human health, we undertook a systematic review of studies investigating whether public policies targeting unhealthy products could reduce cardiovascular diseases.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

We searched research studies published in 2000-2020 from major databases, including MEDLINE and Embase. We followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and narratively synthesized the studies based on vote counting and direction of the intervention effect.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight studies, mostly from high-income countries, met the inclusion criteria. Most studies were on public policies targeting sugar-sweetened beverages and tobacco, followed by alcohol, sugar, salt, and junk foods. Overall, many reported that several fiscal, regulatory, and educational policies generated beneficial effects of reducing the diseases. Those studies that reported no or limited effects highlighted several sociodemographic and health risk characteristics and design and implementation aspects of the policy interventions as factors limiting the policy effects; most of these are modifiable with appropriate policy interventions. For instance, low magnitude of tax, substitution with other unhealthy products, firms' competitive response strategies, pre-existence of smoking bans, incremental enactment of smoking regulations, degree of enforcement, and various sociocultural factors minimized the effects of the policies.

CONCLUSION

The literature supports a growing consensus on the beneficial effects of public policy for improving human health. The design and implementation of public policies must address various impeding factors and incorporate appropriate remedial measures. Further research is needed from low- and middle-income countries and on whether and how multiple policy instruments work in tandem.

The Cost Effectiveness of Taxation of Sugary Foods and Beverages: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations

BACKGROUND

With increasing concerns about the health consequences and economic burden of excess sugar consumption, a sugar tax is increasingly considered an effective policy to curb sugar consumption. However, little is known about the cost effectiveness of sugar taxes. To inform policy decision makers, we systematically reviewed and analyzed the evidence regarding the cost effectiveness of sugar taxation.

METHODS

We systematically searched six databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, EconLit, and Google Scholar) to identify relevant journal articles. Two reviewers independently scanned and selected all retrieved studies. Only studies that evaluated sugar taxes and applied economic evaluation methods were included. The quality of included studies was assessed using established standards.

RESULTS

Fifteen good-quality studies that originated from six countries (the US, Australia, South Africa, Canada, the UK, and Mexico) were included. These studies revealed that sugar tax improved health-related quality of life. Savings from avoided health care costs and revenue from the sugar taxes (totalling US$87 to US$167,799 million) exceeded intervention costs (US$5 to US$2177 million). Each of the 15 studies concluded that sugar tax constitutes a cost-effective intervention that led to cost savings.

CONCLUSIONS

Sugar tax is a practical and cost-effective policy option to reduce the health and economic burden resulting from excess sugar consumption. The impact of sugar taxes depends on the target population, time horizons, and other parameters. Economic evaluations of taxation of a broader set of sugary products and economic evaluations that combine sugar taxation with other interventions are important to inform further action to curb sugar consumption.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Pricing Policies: Simulation of Minimum Price Laws and Taxes in New York City

INTRODUCTION

Minimum price laws, which set a price below which a product cannot be sold, are a promising but understudied strategy for reducing the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. New York City has implemented a minimum price law for tobacco products and could consider this policy for sugar-sweetened beverages. This study projects the impacts of a sugar-sweetened beverage minimum price law among New York City adults, with effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax examined for comparison.

METHODS

In 2020-2021, a microsimulation model of dietary behaviors and body weight was developed using population-based survey data, research on responsiveness to and avoidance of price increases, and a validated weight change model. Analyses applied the model to simulate the impacts of implementing a minimum price law (8 or 10 cents/ounce price floors) or an excise tax (1 or 2 cents/ounce tax rates) on diet and body weight among New York City adults for more than 5 years. Sensitivity analyses varied assumptions about price responsiveness, caloric compensation, and avoidance.

RESULTS

A sugar-sweetened beverage minimum price law with an 8 cents/ounce floor would reduce average sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 16.5 calories/day (95% uncertainty interval= -17.2, -15.8) and obesity prevalence by 0.86 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval= -1.03, -0.69). Benefits were similar for a minimum price law with a 10 cents/ounce floor and for 1 and 2 cents/ounce taxes (range of obesity reductions: -0.84 to -1.24 percentage points). Benefits persisted in sensitivity analyses and were larger for Black and Hispanic than for White and Asian adults and for adults with lower than for those with higher income.

CONCLUSIONS

Excise taxes and minimum price laws for sugar-sweetened beverages could both reduce New York City adults' sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and obesity prevalence and narrow sociodemographic disparities in obesity.

Burden of Diabetes Mellitus in Nepal: An Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Globally, the number of people living with diabetes mellitus (DM) increased by 62% between 1990 and 2019, affecting 463 million people in 2019, and is projected to increase further by 51% by 2045. The increasing burden of DM that requires chronic care could have a considerable cost implication in the health system, particularly in resource constraint settings like Nepal. In this context, this study attempts to present the burden of DM in terms of prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The study is based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, a multinational collaborative research, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations. In the study, the overall prevalence of DM was estimated using DisMod MR-2.1, a Bayesian metaregression model. DALYs were estimated summing years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. There were a total of 1,412,180 prevalent cases of DM, 3,474 deaths and 189,727 DALYs, due to DM in 2019. All-age prevalence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate of DM stood at 4,642.83 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4,178.58-5,137.74) and 5,735.58 (95% UI: 5,168.74-6327.73) cases per 100,000 population, respectively, in 2019. In 2019, 1.8% (95% UI: 1.54, 2.07) of total deaths were from DM, which is a more than three-fold increase from the proportion of deaths attributed in 1990 (0.43%, 95% UI: 0.36, 0.5) with most of these deaths being from DM type 2. In 2019, a total of 189,727 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were attributable to DM of which 105,950 DALYs were among males, and the remaining 83,777 DALYs were among females. Overall, between 1990 and 2019, the DALYs, attributable to Type 1 and 2 DM combined and for Type 2 DM only, have increased gradually across both sexes. However, the DALYs per 100,000 attributable to DM have slightly reduced across both sexes in that time. There is a high burden of DM in Nepal in 2019 with a steep increase in the proportion of deaths attributable to DM in Nepal which could pose a serious challenge to the health system. Primary prevention of DM requires collaborative efforts from multiple sectors. Meanwhile, the current federal structure could be an opportunity for integrated, locally tailored public health and clinical interventions for the prevention of the disease and its consequences.

Microsimulation Modelling in Food Policy: A Scoping Review of Methodological Aspects

Food policies for the prevention and management of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been increasingly relying on microsimulation models (MSMs) to assess effectiveness. Given the increased uptake of MSMs, this review aims to provide an overview of the characteristics of MSMs that link diets with NCDs. A comprehensive review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Knowledge. Inclusion criteria were: (i) findings from a MSM, (ii) diets, foods or nutrients as main exposure of interest, (iii) NCDs, such as overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke or cancer as disease outcome for impact assessment. This review included information from 33 studies using MSM in analyzing diet and diverse food policies on NCDs. Hereby, most models employed stochastic, discrete-time, dynamic microsimulation techniques to calculate anticipated (cost-)effectiveness of strategies based on food pricing, food reformulation or dietary (lifestyle) interventions. Currently available models differ in the methodology used for quantifying the effect of the dietary changes on disease, and in the method for modelling disease incidence and mortality. However, all studies provided evidence that the models were sufficiently capturing the close-to-reality situation by justifying their choice of model parameters and validating externally their modelled disease incidence and mortality with observed or predicted event data. With the increasing use of various MSMs, between-model comparisons, facilitated by open access models and good reporting practices, would be important for judging model's accuracy, leading to continued improvement in the methodologies for developing and applying MSMs, and subsequently a better understanding of the results by policymakers.

A STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE

Given the advancement in the application of microsimulation modelling in evaluating food policies and measuring diet-related disease burdens, the present scoping review serves as an exercise to inform future modelling, hereby highlighting the need for transparency in model development, application and dissemination to advance and safeguard accuracy and relevance in modelling efforts.

Sugar intake from sweetened beverages and diabetes: A narrative review

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the fastest growing public health concerns around the world. Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption has been proven to be associated with adverse health consequences in the diabetic population. Reducing SSB consumption, body weight control, healthy diets, and increased physical activity have been suggested as strategies to improve diabetes prevention and management. This literature review provides an overview of: (1) The association between SSB consumption and the risk of T2DM; (2) Types of SSB consumption and T2DM; (3) The effect of obesity and inflammation on the association between SSB consumption and risk of T2DM; and (4) SSB consumption in T2DM patients. There is still work to be done to determine how SSB consumption is related to T2DM, but the current research on identifying the association between SSB consumption and T2DM is promising, with the most promising studies confirming the connection between SSBs, T2DM risk, and diabetes management. Future studies should explore more effective SSB related diabetes prevention and management interventions.

Population-Level Approaches to Preventing Type 2 Diabetes Globally

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasingly considered an epidemic rooted in modern society as much as in individual behavior. Addressing the T2DM burden thus involves a dual approach, simultaneously addressing high-risk individuals and whole populations. Within this context, this article summarizes the evidence base, in terms of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, for population-level approaches to prevent T2DM: (1) modifications to the food environment; (2) modifications to the built environment and physical activity; and (3) programs and policies to address social and economic factors. Existing knowledge gaps are also discussed.

Modelling the impact of increase in sugar prices on dental caries in India

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess the impact of raising the price of sugar and/or sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on caries incidence in the Indian population.

METHODS

A tooth-level decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate a change in caries increment after increasing the price of Sugar and SSBs. The transition of a tooth from a caries-free state to the state of tooth loss in both scenarios was modelled with the help of a Markov model for a time horizon of 63 years, ranging from 2021 to 2083 for the 12-year-old population cohort of India. A conceptual framework was designed to implicate the possible effects of an increase in sugar prices on the reduction of caries incidence. Health effects were estimated in terms of the number of carious lesions and tooth-loss in both the scenarios and modelled as a product of the dose-response relationship between sugar intake and caries incidence. The model was thus used to establish the number of caries lesions prevented, and tooth-loss avoided. Uncertainties in the parameters were assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The Monte Carlo method was used for simulating the results 999 times.

RESULTS

A 20% rise in the price of sugar is expected to result in the prevention of an average of 1.32 teeth in a lifetime of an individual and prevent 27.96 million tooth-loss incidents among the population cohort of India that will eventually lead to a saving of INR (₹) 3116.32 billion (US$ 42.69 billion) on account of dental caries treatment. Similarly, increasing-price of SSBs by 20% will lead to a 0.86% reduction in carious teeth incidence in an individual's lifetime.

CONCLUSION

Increasing the cost of sugar and/or SSBs will reduce the daily intake of sugar, which will reduce caries incidence and subsequent progression, thereby preventing caries-attributed tooth-loss and saving treatment costs.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BACKGROUND

Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.

PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER

CRD42020121025 .

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages as a policy to reduce overweight and obesity in countries of different income classifications: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the potential impact of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes on overweight and obesity prevalence in countries of different income classifications.

DESIGN

Systematic review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines (PROSPERO number CRD42020161612). Five databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, LILACS (via Virtual Health Library) and MEDLINE (via PubMed), and Web of Science were searched, from January 2009 to December 2019. Articles that reported changes in purchases, sales, intake, body weight, BMI, overweight and/or obesity prevalence due to a tax on or price change in SSB were included.

SETTING

Studies conducted in countries of different income classifications.

PARTICIPANTS

The search yielded 8349 articles of which 21 met inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Among the sixteen studies selected, only two did not show that consumption, sales and purchase decreased as the price of SSB increased. In eight of the thirteen studies selected, a positive effect of an SSB tax on decreasing overweight and obesity prevalence was expected. It is estimated that a 20 % taxation on SSB would result in a greater decrease in the prevalence of overweight and obesity compared to a 10 % rate. Studies with no significant effect of taxing on sales, purchases, consumption and prevalence of obesity were from high-income countries, while significant effects of taxing on reducing purchase, consumption and/or obesity prevalence were found in studies from upper-middle- and middle-income countries.

CONCLUSION

A high SSB tax might be an effective fiscal policy to decrease purchase and consumption of SSB and reduce overweight/obesity prevalence, especially if the tax were specific for beverage volume.

The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia

The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95% CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46 million (95% CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia.

Barriers to, and facilitators of, the adoption of a sugar sweetened beverage tax to prevent non-communicable diseases in Uganda: a policy landscape analysis

Background

Uganda is experiencing an increase in nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. Risk factors include overconsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Fiscal and taxation policies aim to make the consumption of healthier foods easier. However, the adoption and implementation of fiscal policies by countries are constrained by political and economic challenges.

Objective

We investigated the policy and political landscape related to the prevention of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases in Uganda to identify barriers to and facilitators of the adoption of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Uganda.

Methods

A desk-based policy analysis of policies related to nutrition-related non-communicable diseases and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation was conducted. Four key informant consultations (n = 4) were conducted to verify the policy review and to gain further insight into the policy and stakeholder contexts. Analysis was framed by Kingdon’s theory of agenda setting and policy change.

Results

Nutrition-related non-communicable diseases were recognised as an emerging problem in Uganda. The Government has adopted a comprehensive approach to improve diets, but implementation is slow. There is limited recognition of the consumption of sugar and sugar-sweetened beverages as a contributor to the nutrition-related non-communicable disease burden in policy documents. Existing taxes on soft drinks are lower than the World Health Organization’s recommended rate of 20% and do not target sugar content. The soft drink industry has been influential in framing the taxation debate, and the Ministry of Finance previously reduced taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages. Maintaining competitiveness in a regional market is an important business strategy. However, the Ministry of Health and other public health actors in civil society have been successful (albeit marginally) in countering reductions in taxation, which are supported by industry.

Conclusions

An established platform for sugar-sweetened beverage taxation advocacy exists in Uganda. Compelling local research that explicitly links soft drink taxes to health goals is essential to advance sugar-sweetened beverage taxation.

Strengthening prevention of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases through sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Rwanda: a policy landscape analysis

Background: Food and beverages high in sugar are recognized to be among the major risk factors for nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. The growing presence of ultra-processed food producers has resulted in shifts to diets that are associated with non-communicable diseases and which include sugar-sweetened beverages. Sugar-sweetened beverage taxation presents an opportunity to prevent non-communicable diseases but it comes with challenges.

Objectives: To describe the policy landscape, identify and analyse the facilitators of and barriers to strengthening taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages in Rwanda.

Methods: We conducted a desk-based policy analysis to assess the facilitators of and barriers to strengthening sugary beverage taxation policy. We consulted eight stakeholders to validate the findings of the desk review.

Results: Non-communicable diseases are recognized as a public health challenge in Government health and non-health policy documents. However, sugar intake is not explicitly identified as a risk factor for non-communicable diseases and existing policies do not clearly aim to reduce sugar consumption. The Rwandan Government's commitment to growing the local sugar industry and the substantial economic contribution of Rwandan beverage producers are potential barriers to fiscal policies aimed at reducing sugar consumption. However, the current 39% excise tax levied on all soft drinks could support the adoption of future sugar-sweetened beverage policies.

Conclusions: The landscape for strengthening a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Rwanda is complex. The policy environment provides both facilitators of and impediments to strengthening the existing tax. A differential tax could be introduced by leveraging on the existing excise tax and linking it to the sugar content of beverages.

Changes in take-home aerated soft drink purchases in urban India after the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST): An interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are increasingly being implemented as public health interventions to limit the consumption of sugar and reduce associated health risks. In July 2017, India imposed a new tax rate on aerated (carbonated) drinks as part of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform. This study investigates the post-GST changes in the purchase of aerated drinks in urban India.

METHODS

An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on state-level monthly take-home purchases of aerated drinks in urban India from January 2013 to June 2018. We assessed changes in the year-on-year growth rate (i.e. percentage change) in aerated drink purchases with controls for contextual variables.

RESULTS

We found no evidence of a reduction in state-level monthly take-home aerated drink purchases in urban India following the implementation of GST. Further analysis showed that the year-on-year growth rate in aerated drink purchases increased slightly (0.1 percentage point per month, 95%CI = 0.018, 0.181) after the implementation of GST; however, this trend was temporary and decreased over time (0.008 percentage point per month, 95%CI = -0.015, -0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In India, a country currently with low aerated drink consumption, the implementation of GST was not associated with a reduction in aerated drink purchase in urban settings. Due to the lack of accurate and sufficiently detailed price data, it is not possible to say whether this finding is driven by prices not changing sufficiently. Furthermore, the impact of GST reform on industry practice (reformulation, marketing) and individual behaviour choices (substitution) is unknown and warrants further investigation to understand how such taxes could be implemented to deliver public health benefits.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus attributable to diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages in China: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) attributable to a diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in China from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 were used to assess all-age and age-standardized, risk-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years of life with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, province, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

For total noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), 12 523 (95% uncertainty interval 776-27 631) deaths, 305 288 (18 611-661 847) YLL, 142 051 (64 530-257 468) YLD, and 447 339 (132 677-858 838) DALYs were attributable to diet high in SSBs in 2017, particularly among males. Age-standardized, risk-attributable mortality, YLL, YLD, and DALY rates increased distinctly by 507.3%, 410.3%, 571.0%, and 453.3% from 1990 to 2017 respectively. Age-sex-specific, risk-attributable mortality and YLL rates for IHD in older adults (over 65 years) were higher than in young (between 25 and 39 years) and middle-aged adults (between 40 and 64 years) in 2017; however, the YLD and DALY rates for T2DM were higher in young and middle-aged males than in older males. The age-standardized, risk-attributable DALY rates for total NCDs increased substantially in high-SDI and high-middle-SDI provinces during the period.

CONCLUSIONS

China has a huge and growing burden of IHD and T2DM attributable to diet high in SSBs, particularly among young and middle-aged male adults in wealthier provinces. Evidence-based public health policies at the provincial levels to reduce the consumption of SSBs should be prioritized in China.

Impacts of a sugar sweetened beverage tax on body mass index and obesity in Thailand: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to address obesity. Thailand has just launched the new tax rates for SSB in 2017; however, the existing tax rate is not as high as the 20% recommended by the WHO. The objective for this study was to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on body mass index (BMI) and obesity prevalence in Thailand under three different scenarios based on existing SSB and recommended tax rates.

METHODS

A base model was built to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on SSB consumption, energy intake, BMI, and obesity prevalence. Literature review was conducted to estimate pass on rate, price elasticity, energy compensation, and energy balance to weight change. Different tax rates (11%, 20% and 25%) were used in the model. The model assumed no substitution effects, model values were based on international data since there was no empirical Thai data available. Differential effects by income groups were not estimated.

FINDINGS

When applying 11%, 20%, and 25% tax rates together with 100% pass on rate and an -1.30 own-price elasticity, the SSB consumption decreased by 14%, 26%, and 32%, respectively. The 20% and 25% price increase in SSB price tended to reduce higher energy intake, weight status and BMI, when compared with an 11% increase in existing price increase of SSB. The percentage changes of obesity prevalence of 11%, 20% and 25% SSB tax rates were estimated to be 1.73%, 3.83%, and 4.91%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher SSB tax (20% and 25%) was estimated to reduce consumption and consequently decrease obesity prevalence. Since Thailand has already endorsed the excise tax structure, the new excise tax structure for SSB should be scaled up to a 20% or 25% tax rate if the SSB consumption change does not meet a favourable goal.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, weight gain, and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases in Asia: a systematic review

CONTEXT

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is increasing in Asia and several countries are adopting preventive policies to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, evidence on the relation between SSB consumption and cardiometabolic health in Asian populations has not been summarized.

OBJECTIVE

In this systematic review, the associations between consumption of SSBs and cardiometabolic outcomes, including obesity, T2DM, and CVD, are examined in Asian populations.

DATA SOURCES

The PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases, and gray literature were searched up to October, 2020 to identify relevant articles.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two investigators independently extracted data from included studies.

DATA ANALYSIS

When sufficient studies were available, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate the pooled estimates (expressed as risk ratio [RR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]). Heterogeneity was tested and quantified using the Cochrane Q test and I2 statistic, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 17 studies included, 8 provided results about measures of adiposity (3 on weight change, 4 on body mass index (BMI), 2 on percent body fat, and 1 on abdominal obesity), 6 reported results about T2DM, and 3 reported on different CVD outcomes. High SSB consumption was significantly associated with greater weight gain and with a higher risk of selected CVD outcomes as compared with low consumption. In the meta-analysis, high SSB consumption was associated with greater T2DM risk before (RR, 1.51; 95%CI, 1.15-1.98 for highest vs lowest category; I2 = 76%) and after (RR, 1.38; 95%CI, 1.09-1.73; I2 = 56%) adjustment for BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that high SSB consumption is directly associated with weight gain, risk of T2DM, and, possibly, selected CVD outcomes in Asian populations. Public health strategies to reduce SSB consumption in Asian countries are warranted.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42019129456.Keywords: adiposity. cardiovascular disease, Asia, sugar-sweetened beverages, type 2 diabetes.

Examining the news media reaction to a national sugary beverage tax in South Africa: a quantitative content analysis

BACKGROUND

South Africa was the first sub-Saharan African country to implement a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax called the Health Promotion Levy (HPL) in April 2018. Given news media can increase public awareness and sway opinions, this study analyzed how the media represented the HPL, including expressions of support or challenge, topics associated with the levy, and stakeholder views of the HPL.

METHODS

We performed a quantitative content analysis of online South African news articles related to the HPL published between January 1, 2017 and June 30, 2019. We coded the presence or absence of mentions related to health and economic effects of the HPL and HPL support or opposition. Prevalence of these mentions, overall and by source (industry, government, academics, other), were analyzed with Pearson χ2 and post-hoc Fisher exact tests.

RESULTS

Across all articles, 81% mentioned health, and 65% mentioned economics topics. 54% of articles expressed support, 26% opposition, and 20% a balanced view of the HPL. All sources except industry expressed majority support for the HPL. Health reasons were the most common justifications for support, and economic harms were the most common justifications for opposition. Statements that sugar intake is not related to obesity, the HPL will not reduce SSB intake, and the HPL will cause industry or economic harm were all disproportionately high in industry sources (92, 80, and 81% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001). Statements that sugar intake is related to obesity and non-communicable diseases were disproportionately high in both government (46 and 54% vs 31% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001) and academics (33 and 38% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.05). Statements that the HPL will improve health and the HPL will reduce health care costs were disproportionately high in government (47% vs 31% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001) and academics (44% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.05), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Industry expressed no support for the HPL, whereas academics, government, and other sources mainly expressed support. Future studies would be improved by linking news media exposure to SSB intake data to better understand the effects news media may have on individual behavior change.

Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy in metropolitan cities in India among the population aged 20 years or more, and their variation by sex, age and BMI.

METHODS

A Markov simulation model was adopted to estimate age-, sex- and BMI-specific lifetime risk of developing diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy. The main data inputs used were as follows: age-, sex- and BMI-specific incidence rates of diabetes in urban India taken from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (2010-2018); age-, sex- and urban-specific rates of mortality from period lifetables reported by the Government of India (2014); and prevalence of diabetes from the Indian Council for Medical Research INdia DIABetes study (2008-2015).

RESULTS

Lifetime risk (95% CI) of diabetes in 20-year-old men and women was 55.5 (51.6, 59.7)% and 64.6 (60.0, 69.5)%, respectively. Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. Remaining lifetime risk (95% CI) declined with age to 37.7 (30.1, 46.7)% at age 60 years among women and 27.5 (23.1, 32.4)% in men. Lifetime risk (95% CI) was highest among obese Indians: 86.0 (76.6, 91.5)% among 20-year-old women and 86.9 (75.4, 93.8)% among men. We identified considerably higher diabetes-free life expectancy at lower levels of BMI.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India is alarming across the spectrum of weight and rises dramatically with higher BMI. Prevention of diabetes among metropolitan Indians of all ages is an urgent national priority, particularly given the rapid increase in urban obesogenic environments across the country. Graphical abstract.

Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040

INTRODUCTION

As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.

RESULTS

Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.

Industry strategies in the parliamentary process of adopting a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa: a systematic mapping

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the South African government became the first in the African region to announce the introduction of an SSB tax based on sugar content as a public health measure to reduce obesity. This tax was introduced against the backdrop of South Africa having a large sugar production and SSB manufacturing industry, as well as very high unemployment rates. The introduction of fiscal measures, such as a SSB tax, has been met with well-coordinated and funded opposition in other countries.

METHODS

The aim of this study is to describe and analyse the arguments and strategies utilised by industry during policymaking processes to oppose regulatory actions in LMIC. This study analyses arguments and strategies used by the beverage and related industries during the public consultation phase of the process to adopt the South African SSB tax.

RESULTS

Industry opposition to the SSB tax was comprehensive and employed several tactics. First, industry underscored its economic importance and the potential job losses and other economic harms that may arise from the tax. This argument was well-received by policymakers, and similar to industry tactics employed in other middle income countries like Mexico. Second, industry discussed self-regulation and voluntary measures as a form of policy substitution, which mirrors industry responses in the US, the Caribbean and Latin America. Third, industry misused or disputed evidence to undermine the perceived efficacy of the tax. Finally, considerations for small business and their ability to compete with multi-national corporations were a unique feature of industry response.

CONCLUSIONS

Industry opposition followed both general trends, and also introduced nuanced and context-specific arguments. The industry response experienced in South Africa can be instructive for other countries contemplating the introduction of similar measures.

Public acceptability of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and its associated factors in the Netherlands

Objective:

To investigate the level of public acceptability of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and its associated factors.

Design:

Participants completed an online self-administered questionnaire. Acceptability of an SSB tax was measured on a seven-point Likert scale (strongly disagree to strongly agree). Associations between acceptability and sociodemographic factors, weight status, SSB consumption and beliefs about effectiveness (e.g., ‘An SSB tax would reduce people’s SSB consumption’), appropriateness, socioeconomic and economic benefit, implementation and trust were assessed using multivariable linear regression analyses.

Setting:

The Netherlands.

Participants:

Dutch adults aged ≥18 years representative of the Dutch population for age, sex, education level and location (n 500).

Results:

Of the participants, 40 % supported and 43 % opposed an SSB tax in general. Moreover, 42 % supported (43 % opposed) an SSB tax as a strategy to reduce overweight, and 55 % supported (32 % opposed) an SSB tax if revenue is used for health initiatives. Participants with a low education level (B = –0·82, 95 % CI –1·31, –0·32), overweight (B = –0·49, 95 % CI –0·89, –0·09), moderate or high SSB consumption (B = –0·86, 95 % CI –1·30, –0·43 and B = –1·01, 95 % CI –1·47, –0·56, respectively) and households with adolescents (B = –0·57, 95 % CI –1·09, –0·05) reported a lower acceptability of an SSB tax than their counterparts. Beliefs about effectiveness, appropriateness, socioeconomic and economic benefit, implementation and trust were associated with acceptability (P < 0·001).

Conclusions:

Public acceptability of an SSB tax tends to be higher if revenue is used for health initiatives. The factors associated with acceptability should be taken into consideration.

Operational research to support equitable non-communicable disease policy in low-income and middle-income countries in the sustainable development era: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a growing health burden in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Operational research (OR) has been used globally to support the design of effective and efficient public policies. Equity is emphasised in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) framework introduced in 2015 and can be analysed within OR studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science for studies published between 2015 and 2018 at the intersection of five domains (OR, LMICs, NCDs, health and decision-making and/or policy-making). We categorised the type of policy intervention and described any concern for equity, which we defined as either analysis of differential impact by subgroups or, policy focus on disadvantaged groups or promoting universal health coverage (UHC).

RESULTS

A total of 149 papers met the inclusion criteria. The papers covered a number of policy types and a broad range of NCDs, although not in proportion to their relative disease burden. A concern for equity was demonstrated by 88 of the 149 papers (59%), with 8 (5%) demonstrating differential impact, 47 (32%) targeting disadvantaged groups, and 68 (46%) promoting UHC.

CONCLUSION

Overall, OR for NCD health policy in the SDG era is being applied to a diverse set of interventions and conditions across LMICs and researchers appear to be concerned with equity. However, the current focus of published research does not fully reflect population needs and the analysis of differential impact within populations is rare.

The Effect of a Priest-Led Intervention on the Choice and Preference of Soda Beverages: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial in Catholic Parishes

BACKGROUND

Latin America ranks among the regions with the highest level of intake of sugary beverages in the world. Innovative strategies to reduce the consumption of sugary drinks are necessary.

PURPOSE

Evaluate the effect of a one-off priest-led intervention on the choice and preference of soda beverages.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic cluster-randomized trial in Catholic parishes, paired by number of attendees, in Chimbote, Peru between March and June of 2017. The priest-led intervention, a short message about the importance of protecting one's health, was delivered during the mass. The primary outcome was the proportion of individuals that choose a bottle of soda instead of a bottle of water immediately after the service. Cluster-level estimates were used to compare primary and secondary outcomes between intervention and control groups utilizing nonparametric tests.

RESULTS

Six parishes were allocated to control and six to the intervention group. The proportion of soda selection at baseline was ~60% in the intervention and control groups, and ranged from 56.3% to 63.8% in Week 1, and from 62.7% to 68.2% in Week 3. The proportion of mass attendees choosing water over soda was better in the priest-led intervention group: 8.2% higher at Week 1 (95% confidence interval 1.7%-14.6%, p = .03), and 6.2% higher at 3 weeks after baseline (p = .15).

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the proof-of-concept that a brief priest-led intervention can decrease sugary drink choice.

CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN24676734. Registered 25 April 2017, https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN24676734.

Awareness and perceptions regarding taxation and health warnings related to sugar-sweetened beverages and the factors associated with these among visitors of a general out-patient clinic in Bhopal, India

INTRODUCTION

Although increased taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and warning labels on their packaging have been successful in other countries, India has not implemented these. It is imperative to understand the user perspectives before implementation, regarding which almost no information exists.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the awareness and perceptions of people regarding taxation and health warnings on SSB packaging, and to determine the factors associated with these.

METHODOLOGY

This cross-sectional study was conducted in the general out-patient clinic of a public tertiary care hospital in Bhopal, India, between April and November 2018. Patients and accompanying persons ≥15 years of age and attending the clinic were included. Severely ill patients were excluded. Exit interviews were conducted after the clinical consultation using a pre-tested semi-structured interview schedule. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS version 21.

RESULTS

Out of the 503 participants interviewed, three-fourths had never heard of taxes on SSBs and had never seen any health warning on SSB packaging. Most participants (96.6%) wanted some health warning to be present on the packaging. Majority of them (69.3%) wanted both textual and pictorial warnings. Close to half of those who wanted a pictorial warning to be present opined that it should occupy <25% of the surface area of the packaging. Multivariable analysis showed that participants aged <25 years and females were not in favor of tax increment.

CONCLUSION

Government policies should also focus on user perspectives and preferences before deciding to increase tax on SSBs or introducing mandatory health warnings on SSBs.

Sugary drink warnings: A meta-analysis of experimental studies

BACKGROUND

Policymakers worldwide are considering requiring warnings for sugary drinks. A growing number of experimental studies have examined sugary drink warnings' impacts, but no research to our knowledge has synthesized this literature. To inform ongoing policy debates, this study aimed to identify the effects of sugary drink warnings compared with control conditions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We systematically searched 7 databases on June 21, 2019, and October 25, 2019. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles. Two investigators independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts to identify peer-reviewed articles that used an experimental protocol to examine the effects of sugary drink warnings compared to a control condition. Two investigators independently extracted study characteristics and effect sizes from all relevant full-text articles. We meta-analyzed any outcome assessed in at least 2 studies, combining effect sizes using random effects meta-analytic procedures. Twenty-three experiments with data on 16,241 individuals (mean proportion female, 58%) were included in the meta-analysis. Most studies took place in Latin America (35%) or the US or Canada (46%); 32% included children. Relative to control conditions, sugary drink warnings caused stronger negative emotional reactions (d = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.25, 1.13; p = 0.002) and elicited more thinking about the health effects of sugary drinks (d = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.29, 1.01; p < 0.001). Sugary drink warnings also led to lower healthfulness perceptions (d = -0.22; 95% CI: -0.27, -0.17; p < 0.001) and stronger disease likelihood perceptions (d = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.24; p = 0.001). Moreover, sugary drink warnings reduced both hypothetical (d = -0.32; 95% CI: -0.44, -0.21; p < 0.001) and actual consumption and purchasing behavior (d = -0.17; 95% CI: -0.30, -0.04; p = 0.012). Statistically significant effects were not observed for perceptions of added sugar or positive sugary drink attitudes (p's > 0.10). Moderation analyses revealed that health warnings (e.g., "Beverages with added sugar contribute to obesity") led to greater reductions in hypothetical sugary drink purchases than did nutrient warnings (e.g., "High in sugar"; d = -0.35 versus -0.18; Qb = 4.04; p = 0.04). Limitations of this study include that we did not review grey literature and that we were unable to conduct moderation analyses for several prespecified moderators due to an insufficient number of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This international body of experimental literature supports sugary drink warnings as a population-level strategy for changing behavior, as well as emotions, perceptions, and intentions.

PROTOCOL REGISTRY

PROSPERO ID 146405.

Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity

Background

Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy.

Methods

We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model.

Results

Two NZ studies gave TFEe’s of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy–implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000’s) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy.

Conclusions

If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options.