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Wang Y, Li C, Zhao S, Wei Y, Li K, Jiang X, Ho J, Ran J, Han L, Zee BCY, Chong KC. Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012158. [PMID: 38683870 PMCID: PMC11081495 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yawen Wang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Conglu Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shi Zhao
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Yuchen Wei
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kehang Li
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Xiaoting Jiang
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Janice Ho
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Jinjun Ran
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Lefei Han
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Benny Chung-ying Zee
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Ka Chun Chong
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Laboratory, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
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2
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Meyer AD, Guerrero SM, Dean NE, Anderson KB, Stoddard ST, Perkins TA. Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types. Epidemics 2023; 45:100721. [PMID: 37890441 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander D Meyer
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
| | | | - Natalie E Dean
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - Kathryn B Anderson
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Steven T Stoddard
- Bavarian Nordic Inc., 6275 Nancy Ridge Drive Suite 110/120, San Diego, CA 92121, USA; Division of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
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3
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Scire J, Huisman JS, Grosu A, Angst DC, Lison A, Li J, Maathuis MH, Bonhoeffer S, Stadler T. estimateR: an R package to estimate and monitor the effective reproductive number. BMC Bioinformatics 2023; 24:310. [PMID: 37568078 PMCID: PMC10416499 DOI: 10.1186/s12859-023-05428-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate estimation of the effective reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) of epidemic outbreaks is of central relevance to public health policy and decision making. We present estimateR, an R package for the estimation of the reproductive number through time from delayed observations of infection events. Such delayed observations include confirmed cases, hospitalizations or deaths. The package implements the methodology of Huisman et al. but modularizes the [Formula: see text] estimation procedure to allow easy implementation of new alternatives to the currently available methods. Users can tailor their analyses according to their particular use case by choosing among implemented options. RESULTS The estimateR R package allows users to estimate the effective reproductive number of an epidemic outbreak based on observed cases, hospitalization, death or any other type of event documenting past infections, in a fast and timely fashion. We validated the implementation with a simulation study: estimateR yielded estimates comparable to alternative publicly available methods while being around two orders of magnitude faster. We then applied estimateR to empirical case-confirmation incidence data for COVID-19 in nine countries and for dengue fever in Brazil; in parallel, estimateR is already being applied (i) to SARS-CoV-2 measurements in wastewater data and (ii) to study influenza transmission based on wastewater and clinical data in other studies. In summary, this R package provides a fast and flexible implementation to estimate the effective reproductive number for various diseases and datasets. CONCLUSIONS The estimateR R package is a modular and extendable tool designed for outbreak surveillance and retrospective outbreak investigation. It extends the method developed for COVID-19 by Huisman et al. and makes it available for a variety of pathogens, outbreak scenarios, and observation types. Estimates obtained with estimateR can be interpreted directly or used to inform more complex epidemic models (e.g. for forecasting) on the value of [Formula: see text].
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Affiliation(s)
- Jérémie Scire
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland.
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Jana S Huisman
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
| | - Ana Grosu
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Daniel C Angst
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Adrian Lison
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Jinzhou Li
- Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Marloes H Maathuis
- Department of Mathematics, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sebastian Bonhoeffer
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Tanja Stadler
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Basel, Switzerland.
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.
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4
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Bashir A. How climate change is changing dengue fever. BMJ 2023; 382:p1690. [PMID: 37536724 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.p1690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/05/2023]
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Robert MA, Rodrigues HS, Herrera D, de Mata Donado Campos J, Morilla F, Del Águila Mejía J, Guardado ME, Skewes R, Colomé-Hidalgo M. Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019. Trop Med Health 2023; 51:32. [PMID: 37269000 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-023-00517-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue has broadened its global distribution substantially in the past two decades, and many endemic areas are experiencing increases in incidence. The Dominican Republic recently experienced its two largest outbreaks to date with 16,836 reported cases in 2015 and 20,123 reported cases in 2019. With continued increases in dengue transmission, developing tools to better prepare healthcare systems and mosquito control agencies is of critical importance. Before such tools can be developed, however, we must first better understand potential drivers of dengue transmission. To that end, we focus in this paper on determining relationships between climate variables and dengue transmission with an emphasis on eight provinces and the capital city of the Dominican Republic in the period 2015-2019. We present summary statistics for dengue cases, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in this period, and we conduct an analysis of correlated lags between climate variables and dengue cases as well as correlated lags among dengue cases in each of the nine locations. We find that the southwestern province of Barahona had the largest dengue incidence in both 2015 and 2019. Among all climate variables considered, lags between relative humidity variables and dengue cases were the most frequently correlated. We found that most locations had significant correlations with cases in other locations at lags of zero weeks. These results can be used to improve predictive models of dengue transmission in the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael A Robert
- Department of Mathematics and Center for Emerging, Zoonotic, and Arthropod-Borne Pathogens (CeZAP), Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
| | - Helena Sofia Rodrigues
- Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais, Instituto Politécnico de Viana do Castelo, Valença, Portugal
- Centro de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Matemática e Aplicações, Universidade de Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
| | - Demian Herrera
- Centro de Investigación en Salud Dr. Hugo Mendoza, Hospital Pediátrico Dr. Hugo Mendoza, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Juan de Mata Donado Campos
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública y Microbiología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria del Hospital Universitario La Paz (IdiPAZ), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Consorcio de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Calle Monforte de Lemos 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Fernando Morilla
- Departamento de Informática y Automática, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Informática, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Madrid, Spain
| | - Javier Del Águila Mejía
- Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública y Microbiología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - María Elena Guardado
- Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo (INTEC), Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Ronald Skewes
- Dirección General de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
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6
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Saeed A, Ali S, Khan F, Muhammad S, Reboita MS, Khan AW, Goheer MA, Khan MA, Kumar R, Ikram A, Jabeen A, Pongpanich S. Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH 2023; 45:3489-3505. [PMID: 36367603 DOI: 10.1007/s10653-022-01429-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alia Saeed
- Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Shaukat Ali
- Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Firdos Khan
- School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Sher Muhammad
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | | | - Muhammad Arif Goheer
- Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | | | - Ramesh Kumar
- Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan.
- College of Public Health Sciences, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
| | - Aamer Ikram
- National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Aliya Jabeen
- National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan
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7
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Neira M, Erguler K, Ahmady-Birgani H, Al-Hmoud ND, Fears R, Gogos C, Hobbhahn N, Koliou M, Kostrikis LG, Lelieveld J, Majeed A, Paz S, Rudich Y, Saad-Hussein A, Shaheen M, Tobias A, Christophides G. Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 216:114537. [PMID: 36273599 PMCID: PMC9729515 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Revised: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Neira
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | | | - Robin Fears
- European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), Halle (Saale), Germany
| | | | - Nina Hobbhahn
- European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Maria Koliou
- University of Cyprus Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Leondios G Kostrikis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus; Cyprus Academy of Sciences, Letters, and Arts, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Yinon Rudich
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Weismann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Amal Saad-Hussein
- Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mohammed Shaheen
- Damour for Community Development - Research Department, Palestine
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - George Christophides
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
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8
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Novaes C, Silva Pinto F, Marques RC. Aedes Aegypti-Insights on the Impact of Water Services. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2022GH000653. [PMID: 36439027 PMCID: PMC9682355 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Epidemics in general and dengue in particular surcharge the health services and the economy. However, the fighting actions are circumscribed to the health sector despite the known positive economic impacts that the investments in water supply and sanitation services (WSS) may cause on society and public health. Besides the fact that urban WSS infrastructure is closely linked to disease prevention, in Brazil, the user's perception and demand are very few and many institutional aspects, like the integration between local WSS, health, environment, and development of city councils, need to be improved and better aligned. In this way, disease control and vector density reduction remain challenges to be overcome. This article addresses the need for greater institutionalization of urban WSS relating them to health aspects from official data. It concludes that the negative impacts of lacking universal access to WSS on dengue and other mosquito diseases are dispersed in all cities, regions, and populations regardless of their degree of development. Furthermore, contrary to what is normally emphasized, the analysis carried out shows that the lack of urban stormwater management systems may be an important component of WSS in preventing the proliferation of dengue disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Novaes
- CERISInstituto Superior TécnicoUniversity of LisbonLisbonPortugal
| | - Francisco Silva Pinto
- CERISInstituto Superior TécnicoUniversity of LisbonLisbonPortugal
- EIGeSLusofona UniversityLisboaPortugal
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9
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Abstract
RNA viruses include respiratory viruses, such as coronaviruses and influenza viruses, as well as vector-borne viruses, like dengue and West Nile virus. RNA viruses like these encounter various environments when they copy themselves and spread from cell to cell or host to host. Ex vivo differences, such as geographical location and humidity, affect their stability and transmission, while in vivo differences, such as pH and host gene expression, impact viral receptor binding, viral replication, and the host immune response against the viral infection. A critical factor affecting RNA viruses both ex vivo and in vivo, and defining the outcome of viral infections and the direction of viral evolution, is temperature. In this minireview, we discuss the impact of temperature on viral replication, stability, transmission, and adaptation, as well as the host innate immune response. Improving our understanding of how RNA viruses function, survive, and spread at different temperatures will improve our models of viral replication and transmission risk analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karishma Bisht
- Department of Molecular Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
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10
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Poterek ML, Vogels CBF, Grubaugh ND, Ebel GD, Alex Perkins T, Cavany SM. Interactions between seasonal temperature variation and temporal synchrony drive increased arbovirus co-infection incidence. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:220829. [PMID: 36277835 PMCID: PMC9579765 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Though instances of arthropod-borne (arbo)virus co-infection have been documented clinically, the overall incidence of arbovirus co-infection and its drivers are not well understood. Now that dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses are all in circulation across tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, it is important to understand the environmental and biological conditions that make co-infections more likely to occur. To understand this, we developed a mathematical model of co-circulation of two arboviruses, with transmission parameters approximating dengue, Zika and/or chikungunya viruses, and co-infection possible in both humans and mosquitoes. We examined the influence of seasonal timing of arbovirus co-circulation on the extent of co-infection. By undertaking a sensitivity analysis of this model, we examined how biological factors interact with seasonality to determine arbovirus co-infection transmission and prevalence. We found that temporal synchrony of the co-infecting viruses and average temperature were the most influential drivers of co-infection incidence. Our model highlights the synergistic effect of co-transmission from mosquitoes, which leads to more than double the number of co-infections than would be expected in a scenario without co-transmission. Our results suggest that appreciable numbers of co-infections are unlikely to occur except in tropical climates when the viruses co-occur in time and space.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marya L. Poterek
- Eck Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Chantal B. F. Vogels
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA
| | - Nathan D. Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA
| | - Gregory D. Ebel
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Eck Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Sean M. Cavany
- Eck Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
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11
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Marion G, Hadley L, Isham V, Mollison D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Tomba GS, Scarabel F, Swallow B, Trapman P, Villela D. Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them. Epidemics 2022; 39:100588. [PMID: 35679714 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 05/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of available data, yielding improved disease control and stimulating collection of better data and new data types. Here we identify key challenges for the structure, formulation, analysis and use of mathematical models of pathogen transmission relevant to current and future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Glenn Marion
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, UK; Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK.
| | - Liza Hadley
- Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Valerie Isham
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, UK
| | - Denis Mollison
- Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, UK
| | - Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
- The Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; The Queen's College, Oxford University, UK
| | - Lorenzo Pellis
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, UK; The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK
| | | | - Francesca Scarabel
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, UK; Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UK; CDLab - Computational Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics, University of Udine, Italy
| | - Ben Swallow
- Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Pieter Trapman
- Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Daniel Villela
- Program of Scientific Computing, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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12
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Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2115790119. [PMID: 35533273 PMCID: PMC9171776 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2115790119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The age of reported dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, the severe form of dengue infections, has been increasing in Thailand for four decades. Factors underlying this shift remain poorly understood, challenging public health planning. Here, we found aging of the population and its effect on the hazard of transmission to be the dominant contributors, with temporal changes in surveillance practices playing a lesser role. With ongoing population aging, we expect a continuing shift of DHF toward older individuals, heightening the chance of clinical complications with comorbidities. With most other highly endemic countries facing similar shifts in age structure, the pattern is expected to appear elsewhere. Awareness is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment. The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito–human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.
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García-Carreras B, Yang B, Grabowski MK, Sheppard LW, Huang AT, Salje H, Clapham HE, Iamsirithaworn S, Doung-Ngern P, Lessler J, Cummings DAT. Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001160. [PMID: 35302985 PMCID: PMC8967062 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatiotemporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last 30 years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronisation events. We show that although patterns in synchrony of dengue are similar to those observed in temperature, the relationship between the two is most consistent during synchronous periods, while during asynchronous periods, temperature plays a less prominent role. With simulations from temperature-driven models, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed patterns in synchrony. The simulations produced patterns in synchrony that were similar to observations, supporting an important role of immunity. We demonstrate that multiannual oscillations produced by immunity can lead to asynchronous dynamics and that synchrony in temperature can then synchronise these dengue dynamics. At higher mean temperatures, immune dynamics can be more predominant, and dengue dynamics more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature, suggesting that with rising mean temperatures, dengue dynamics may become increasingly asynchronous. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise. This study shows that spatially large-scale shifts in temperature can synchronize dengue dynamics across Thailand; however, as average temperatures rise, dengue dynamics may increasingly be dictated by dynamics of immunity, which may in turn mean fewer synchronous outbreaks in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo García-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Bingyi Yang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Mary K. Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Lawrence W. Sheppard
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- The Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, United Kingdom
| | - Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Eleanor Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Pawinee Doung-Ngern
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Derek A. T. Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
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14
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Augustinos AA, Nikolouli K, Duran de la Fuente L, Misbah-ul-Haq M, Carvalho DO, Bourtzis K. Introgression of the Aedes aegypti Red-Eye Genetic Sexing Strains Into Different Genomic Backgrounds for Sterile Insect Technique Applications. Front Bioeng Biotechnol 2022; 10:821428. [PMID: 35186905 PMCID: PMC8847382 DOI: 10.3389/fbioe.2022.821428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Aedes aegypti is an invasive mosquito species and major vector of human arboviruses. A wide variety of control methods have been employed to combat mosquito populations. One of them is the sterile insect technique (SIT) that has recently attracted considerable research efforts due to its proven record of success and the absence of harmful environmental footprints. The efficiency and cost-effectiveness of SIT is significantly enhanced by male-only releases. For mosquito SIT, male-only releases are ideally needed since females bite, blood-feed and transmit the pathogens. Ae. aegypti genetic sexing strains (GSS) have recently become available and are based on eye colour mutations that were chosen as selectable markers. These genetic sexing strains were developed through classical genetics and it was shown to be subjected to genetic recombination, a phenomenon that is not suppressed in males as is the case in many Diptera. The genetic stability of these GSS was strengthened by the induction and isolation of radiation-induced inversions. In this study, we used the red eye mutation and the inversion Inv35 line of the Ae. aegypti red-eye GSS s and introgressed them in six different genomic backgrounds to develop GSS with the respective local genomic backgrounds. Our goal was to assess whether the recombination frequencies in the strains with and without the inversion are affected by the different genomic backgrounds. In all cases the recombination events were suppressed in all Inv35 GSS strains, thus indicating that the genomic background does not negatively affect the inversion result. Absence of any effect that could be ascribed to genetic differences, enables the introgression of the key elements of the GSS into the local genomic background prior to release to the target areas. Maintaining the local background increases the chances for successful matings between released males and wild females and addresses potential regulatory concerns regarding biosafety and biosecurity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonios A. Augustinos
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, IAEA Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria
| | - Katerina Nikolouli
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, IAEA Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria
| | - Lucia Duran de la Fuente
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, IAEA Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria
| | - Muhammad Misbah-ul-Haq
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, IAEA Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria
- Nuclear Institute for Food and Agriculture, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - Danilo O. Carvalho
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, IAEA Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria
| | - Kostas Bourtzis
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Centre of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, IAEA Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria
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15
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Simon LM, Rangel TF. Are Temperature Suitability and Socioeconomic Factors Reliable Predictors of Dengue Transmission in Brazil? FRONTIERS IN TROPICAL DISEASES 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2021.758393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vector-borne diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic factors. Within developing countries, heterogeneities on socioeconomic factors are expected to create variable conditions for dengue transmission. However, the relative role of socioeconomic characteristics and their association with climate in determining dengue prevalence are poorly understood. Here we assembled essential socioeconomic factors over 5570 municipalities across Brazil and assessed their effect on dengue prevalence jointly with a previously predicted temperature suitability for transmission. Using a simultaneous autoregressive approach (SAR), we showed that the variability in the prevalence of dengue cases across Brazil is primarily explained by the combined effect of climate and socioeconomic factors. At some dengue seasons, the effect of temperature on transmission potential showed to be a more significant proxy of dengue cases. Still, socioeconomic factors explained the later increase in dengue prevalence over Brazil. In a heterogeneous country such as Brazil, recognizing the transmission drivers by vectors is a fundamental issue in effectively predicting and combating tropical diseases like dengue. Ultimately, it indicates that not considering socioeconomic factors in disease transmission predictions might compromise efficient surveillance strategies. Our study shows that sanitation, urbanization, and GDP are regional indicators that should be considered along with temperature suitability on dengue transmission, setting effective directions to mosquito-borne disease control.
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16
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Oidtman RJ, Omodei E, Kraemer MUG, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Cruz-Rivera E, Misnaza-Castrillón S, Cifuentes MP, Rincon LE, Cañon V, Alarcon PD, España G, Huber JH, Hill SC, Barker CM, Johansson MA, Manore CA, Reiner RC, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Siraj AS, Frias-Martinez E, García-Herranz M, Perkins TA. Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease. Nat Commun 2021; 12:5379. [PMID: 34508077 PMCID: PMC8433472 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25695-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2021] [Accepted: 08/23/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel J Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
- UNICEF, New York, NY, USA.
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
| | | | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - John H Huber
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Sarah C Hill
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK
| | - Christopher M Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicince, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Michael A Johansson
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Carrie A Manore
- Information Systems and Modeling (A-1), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Amir S Siraj
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | | | | | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
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17
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Zafar S, Shipin O, Paul RE, Rocklöv J, Haque U, Rahman MS, Mayxay M, Pientong C, Aromseree S, Poolphol P, Pongvongsa T, Vannavong N, Overgaard HJ. Development and Comparison of Dengue Vulnerability Indices Using GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Lao PDR and Thailand. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:9421. [PMID: 34502007 PMCID: PMC8430616 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18179421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2021] [Revised: 08/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Dengue is a continuous health burden in Laos and Thailand. We assessed and mapped dengue vulnerability in selected provinces of Laos and Thailand using multi-criteria decision approaches. An ecohealth framework was used to develop dengue vulnerability indices (DVIs) that explain links between population, social and physical environments, and health to identify exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity indicators. Three DVIs were constructed using two objective approaches, Shannon's Entropy (SE) and the Water-Associated Disease Index (WADI), and one subjective approach, the Best-Worst Method (BWM). Each DVI was validated by correlating the index score with dengue incidence for each spatial unit (district and subdistrict) over time. A Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) larger than 0.5 and a p-value less than 0.05 implied a good spatial and temporal performance. Spatially, DVIWADI was significantly correlated on average in 19% (4-40%) of districts in Laos (mean r = 0.5) and 27% (15-53%) of subdistricts in Thailand (mean r = 0.85). The DVISE was validated in 22% (12-40%) of districts in Laos and in 13% (3-38%) of subdistricts in Thailand. The DVIBWM was only developed for Laos because of lack of data in Thailand and was significantly associated with dengue incidence on average in 14% (0-28%) of Lao districts. The DVIWADI indicated high vulnerability in urban centers and in areas with plantations and forests. In 2019, high DVIWADI values were observed in sparsely populated areas due to elevated exposure, possibly from changes in climate and land cover, including urbanization, plantations, and dam construction. Of the three indices, DVIWADI was the most suitable vulnerability index for the study area. The DVIWADI can also be applied to other water-associated diseases, such as Zika and chikungunya, to highlight priority areas for further investigation and as a tool for prevention and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sumaira Zafar
- Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology; Pathumthani 12120, Thailand;
| | - Oleg Shipin
- Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology; Pathumthani 12120, Thailand;
| | - Richard E. Paul
- Unité de la Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, Institut Pasteur, CNRS UMR 2000, 75015 Paris, France;
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden;
| | - Ubydul Haque
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, North Texas, Fort Worth, TX 76107, USA;
| | - Md. Siddikur Rahman
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand; (M.S.R.); (C.P.); (S.A.); (H.J.O.)
- Department of Statistics, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5402, Bangladesh
| | - Mayfong Mayxay
- Institute of Research and Education Development (IRED), University of Health Sciences, Ministry of Health, Vientiane 43130, Laos;
- Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Welcome Trust Research Unit (LOMWRU), Microbiology Laboratory, Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane 43130, Laos
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LG, UK
| | - Chamsai Pientong
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand; (M.S.R.); (C.P.); (S.A.); (H.J.O.)
| | - Sirinart Aromseree
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand; (M.S.R.); (C.P.); (S.A.); (H.J.O.)
| | - Petchaboon Poolphol
- The Office of Disease Prevention and Control Region 10(th), Ubon Ratchathani 34000, Thailand;
| | | | | | - Hans J. Overgaard
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand; (M.S.R.); (C.P.); (S.A.); (H.J.O.)
- Faculty of Science and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, 1430 Ås, Norway
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18
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Brady OJ, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Jafari Y, Loock MV, Herrera-Taracena G, Menten J, Edmunds WJ, Sim S, Ng LC, Hué S, Hibberd ML. Case-area targeted interventions (CATI) for reactive dengue control: Modelling effectiveness of vector control and prophylactic drugs in Singapore. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009562. [PMID: 34379641 PMCID: PMC8357181 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Targeting interventions to areas that have recently experienced cases of disease is one strategy to contain outbreaks of infectious disease. Such case-area targeted interventions (CATI) have become an increasingly popular approach for dengue control but there is little evidence to suggest how precisely targeted or how recent cases need to be, to mount an effective response. The growing interest in the development of prophylactic and therapeutic drugs for dengue has also given new relevance for CATI strategies to interrupt transmission or deliver early treatment. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Here we develop a patch-based mathematical model of spatial dengue spread and fit it to spatiotemporal datasets from Singapore. Simulations from this model suggest CATI strategies could be effective, particularly if used in lower density areas. To maximise effectiveness, increasing the size of the radius around an index case should be prioritised even if it results in delays in the intervention being applied. This is partially because large intervention radii ensure individuals receive multiple and regular rounds of drug dosing or vector control, and thus boost overall coverage. Given equivalent efficacy, CATIs using prophylactic drugs are predicted to be more effective than adult mosquito-killing vector control methods and may even offer the possibility of interrupting individual chains of transmission if rapidly deployed. CATI strategies quickly lose their effectiveness if baseline transmission increases or case detection rates fall. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results suggest CATI strategies can play an important role in dengue control but are likely to be most relevant for low transmission areas where high coverage of other non-reactive interventions already exists. Controlled field trials are needed to assess the field efficacy and practical constraints of large operational CATI strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver J. Brady
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Adam J. Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Yalda Jafari
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marnix Van Loock
- Janssen Global Public Health, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Guillermo Herrera-Taracena
- Janssen Global Public Health, Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Horsham, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Joris Menten
- Quantitative Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shuzhen Sim
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lee-Ching Ng
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stéphane Hué
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Martin L. Hibberd
- Department of Infection Biology, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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19
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Ecological, Social, and Other Environmental Determinants of Dengue Vector Abundance in Urban and Rural Areas of Northeastern Thailand. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18115971. [PMID: 34199508 PMCID: PMC8199701 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18115971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2021] [Revised: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 06/01/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue globally. The variables that influence the abundance of dengue vectors are numerous and complex. This has generated a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission, the spatial-temporal distribution of vectors, and the factors that modulate vector abundance. To help guide and improve vector-control efforts, this study identified the ecological, social, and other environmental risk factors that affect the abundance of adult female and immature Ae. aegypti in households in urban and rural areas of northeastern Thailand. A one-year entomological study was conducted in four villages of northeastern Thailand between January and December 2019. Socio-demographic; self-reported prior dengue infections; housing conditions; durable asset ownership; water management; characteristics of water containers; knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding climate change and dengue; and climate data were collected. Household crowding index (HCI), premise condition index (PCI), socio-economic status (SES), and entomological indices (HI, CI, BI, and PI) were calculated. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLMs) were fitted to identify the risk factors associated with the abundance of adult females and immature Ae. aegypti. Urban sites had higher entomological indices and numbers of adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes than rural sites. Overall, participants’ KAP about climate change and dengue were low in both settings. The fitted GLM showed that a higher abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with many factors, such as a low education level of household respondents, crowded households, poor premise conditions, surrounding house density, bathrooms located indoors, unscreened windows, high numbers of wet containers, a lack of adult control, prior dengue infections, poor climate change adaptation, dengue, and vector-related practices. Many of the above were also significantly associated with a high abundance of immature mosquito stages. The GLM model also showed that maximum and mean temperature with four-and one-to-two weeks of lag were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the abundance of adult and immature mosquitoes, respectively, in northeastern Thailand. The low KAP regarding climate change and dengue highlights the engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors are important for the critical first step toward developing routine Aedes surveillance and reliable early warning systems for effective dengue and other mosquito-borne disease prevention and control strategies at the household and community levels in this region and similar settings elsewhere.
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20
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Mendoza-Cano O, Rincón-Avalos P, Watson V, Khouakhi A, la Cruz JLD, Ruiz-Montero AP, Nava-Garibaldi CM, Lopez-Rojas M, Murillo-Zamora E. The Burden of Dengue in Children by Calculating Spatial Temperature: A Methodological Approach Using Remote Sensing Techniques. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:4230. [PMID: 33923602 PMCID: PMC8073896 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18084230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Revised: 04/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue fever is one of the most important arboviral diseases. Surface temperature versus dengue burden in tropical environments can provide valuable information that can be adapted in future measurements to improve health policies. METHODS A methodological approach using Daymet-V3 provided estimates of daily weather parameters. A Python code developed by us extracted the median temperature from the urban regions of Colima State (207.3 km2) in Mexico. JointPoint regression models computed the mean temperature-adjusted average annual percentage of change (AAPC) in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates (per 100,000) due to dengue in Colima State among school-aged (5-14 years old) children. RESULTS Primary outcomes were average temperature in urban areas and cumulative dengue burden in DALYs in the school-aged population. A model from 1990 to 2017 medium surface temperature with DALY rates was performed. The increase in DALYs rate was 64% (95% CI, 44-87%), and it seemed to depend on the 2000-2009 estimates (AAPC = 185%, 95% CI 18-588). CONCLUSION From our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate surface temperature and to model it through an extensive period with health economics calculations in a specific subset of the Latin-American endemic population for dengue epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Mendoza-Cano
- Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatlán, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatlán 28400, Colima, Mexico; (P.R.-A.); (J.L.-d.l.C.); (A.P.R.-M.); (M.L.-R.)
| | - Pedro Rincón-Avalos
- Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatlán, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatlán 28400, Colima, Mexico; (P.R.-A.); (J.L.-d.l.C.); (A.P.R.-M.); (M.L.-R.)
| | - Verity Watson
- Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK;
| | - Abdou Khouakhi
- School of Water, Energy and Environment, Centre for Environmental and Agricultural Informatics, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK;
| | - Jesús López-de la Cruz
- Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatlán, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatlán 28400, Colima, Mexico; (P.R.-A.); (J.L.-d.l.C.); (A.P.R.-M.); (M.L.-R.)
| | - Angelica Patricia Ruiz-Montero
- Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatlán, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatlán 28400, Colima, Mexico; (P.R.-A.); (J.L.-d.l.C.); (A.P.R.-M.); (M.L.-R.)
| | - Cynthia Monique Nava-Garibaldi
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Dr, Madison, WI 53706, USA;
| | - Mario Lopez-Rojas
- Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, km. 9 Carretera Colima-Coquimatlán, Col. Jardines del Llano, Coquimatlán 28400, Colima, Mexico; (P.R.-A.); (J.L.-d.l.C.); (A.P.R.-M.); (M.L.-R.)
| | - Efrén Murillo-Zamora
- Departamento de Epidemiología, Unidad de Medicina Familiar No. 19, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Av. Javier Mina 301, Col. Centro, Colima 28000, Colima, Mexico
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Rijal KR, Adhikari B, Ghimire B, Dhungel B, Pyakurel UR, Shah P, Bastola A, Lekhak B, Banjara MR, Pandey BD, Parker DM, Ghimire P. Epidemiology of dengue virus infections in Nepal, 2006-2019. Infect Dis Poverty 2021; 10:52. [PMID: 33858508 PMCID: PMC8047528 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-021-00837-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2020] [Accepted: 04/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is one of the newest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing burden and geographic spread over the years. The main objective of this study was to explore the epidemiological patterns of dengue since its first outbreak (2006) to 2019 in Nepal. METHODS This study is a retrospective analysis that covers the last 14 years (2006-2019) of reported dengue cases from Epidemiology Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Ministry of Health and Population, Government of Nepal. Reported cases were plotted over time and maps of reported case incidence were generated (from 2016 through 2019). An ecological analysis of environmental predictors of case incidence was conducted using negative binomial regression. RESULTS While endemic dengue has been reported in Nepal since 2006, the case load has increased over time and in 2019 a total of 17 992 dengue cases were reported from 68 districts (from all seven provinces). Compared to the case incidence in 2016, incidence was approximately five times higher in 2018 [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 4.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-15.3] and over 140 times higher in 2019 (IRR: 141.6; 95% CI 45.8-438.4). A one standard deviation increase in elevation was associated with a 90% decrease in reported case incidence (IRR: 0.10; 95% CI 0.01-0.20). However, the association between elevation and reported cases varied across the years. In 2018 there was a cluster of cases reported from high elevation Kaski District of Gandaki Province. Our results suggest that dengue infections are increasing in magnitude and expanding out of the lowland areas to higher elevations over time. CONCLUSIONS There is a high risk of dengue outbreak in the lowland Terai region, with increasing spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond as seen over the last 14 years. Urgent measures are required to increase the availability of diagnostics and resources to mitigate future dengue epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Komal Raj Rijal
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
| | - Bipin Adhikari
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Bindu Ghimire
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Binod Dhungel
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Uttam Raj Pyakurel
- Epidemiology and Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Department of Health Service, Ministry of Health and Population, Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Prakash Shah
- Epidemiology and Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Department of Health Service, Ministry of Health and Population, Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Anup Bastola
- Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Binod Lekhak
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Megha Raj Banjara
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Basu Dev Pandey
- Epidemiology and Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Department of Health Service, Ministry of Health and Population, Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | - Prakash Ghimire
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
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Quandelacy TM, Healy JM, Greening B, Rodriguez DM, Chung KW, Kuehnert MJ, Biggerstaff BJ, Dirlikov E, Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Sharp TM, Waterman S, Johansson MA. Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1008812. [PMID: 33784311 PMCID: PMC8034731 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2020] [Revised: 04/09/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2021] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection. We developed a modeling approach that integrates a generic Time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model with assumptions about reporting biases in a Bayesian framework and applied it to the 2016 Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico using three indicators: suspected arboviral cases, suspected Zika-associated Guillain-Barré Syndrome cases, and blood bank data. Using this combination of surveillance data, we estimated the peak of the epidemic occurred during the week of August 15, 2016 (the 33rd week of year), and 120 to 140 (50% credible interval [CrI], 95% CrI: 97 to 170) weekly infections per 10,000 population occurred at the peak. By the end of 2016, we estimated that approximately 890,000 (95% CrI: 660,000 to 1,100,000) individuals were infected in 2016 (26%, 95% CrI: 19% to 33%, of the population infected). Utilizing multiple indicators offers the opportunity for real-time and retrospective situational awareness to support epidemic preparedness and response. Zika virus (ZIKV) infections, like many infections, are generally underreported due to asymptomatic, mild, or unrecognized cases. Using available surveillance indicators reflecting imperfect proxies of infection, we developed a modeling approach to estimate the weekly incidence of infection by combining independent surveillance indicators and assumptions about system-specific reporting biases in a Bayesian framework. Using our approach, we estimated that approximately 890,000 people in the population were infected with Zika in Puerto Rico in 2016, much higher than the 36,316 reported confirmed infections. Our framework has broad application to other diseases where cases may be underreported through traditional disease surveillance and can provide near real-time changes in incidences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Talia M. Quandelacy
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Jessica M. Healy
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Bradford Greening
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Dania M. Rodriguez
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Koo-Whang Chung
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Matthew J. Kuehnert
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Brad J. Biggerstaff
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Emilio Dirlikov
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
| | - Tyler M. Sharp
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
- United States Public Health Service, Silver Springs, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Stephen Waterman
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
- United States Public Health Service, Silver Springs, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael A. Johansson
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Yu X, Jia D, Wang Z, Li G, Chen M, Liang Q, Zhou Y, Liu H, Xiao M, Li S, Chen Q, Chen H, Wei T. A plant reovirus hijacks endoplasmic reticulum-associated degradation machinery to promote efficient viral transmission by its planthopper vector under high temperature conditions. PLoS Pathog 2021; 17:e1009347. [PMID: 33647067 PMCID: PMC7951979 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 01/29/2021] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
In the field, many insect-borne crop viral diseases are more suitable for maintenance and spread in hot-temperature areas, but the mechanism remains poorly understood. The epidemic of a planthopper (Sogatella furcifera)-transmitted rice reovirus (southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus, SRBSDV) is geographically restricted to southern China and northern Vietnam with year-round hot temperatures. Here, we reported that two factors of endoplasmic reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD) machinery, the heat shock protein DnaJB11 and ER membrane protein BAP31, were activated by viral infection to mediate the adaptation of S. furcifera to high temperatures. Infection and transmission efficiencies of SRBSDV by S. furcifera increased with the elevated temperatures. We observed that high temperature (35°C) was beneficial for the assembly of virus-containing tubular structures formed by nonstructural protein P7-1 of SRBSDV, which facilitates efficient viral transmission by S. furcifera. Both DnaJB11 and BAP31 competed to directly bind to the tubule protein P7-1 of SRBSDV; however, DnaJB11 promoted whereas BAP31 inhibited P7-1 tubule assembly at the ER membrane. Furthermore, the binding affinity of DnaJB11 with P7-1 was stronger than that of BAP31 with P7-1. We also revealed that BAP31 negatively regulated DnaJB11 expression through their direct interaction. High temperatures could significantly upregulate DnaJB11 expression but inhibit BAP31 expression, thereby strongly facilitating the assembly of abundant P7-1 tubules. Taken together, we showed that a new temperature-dependent protein quality control pathway in the ERAD machinery has evolved for strong activation of DnaJB11 for benefiting P7-1 tubules assembly to support efficient transmission of SRBSDV in high temperatures. We thus deduced that ERAD machinery has been hitchhiked by insect-borne crop viruses to enhance their transmission in tropical climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangzhen Yu
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Dongsheng Jia
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Zhen Wang
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Guangjun Li
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Manni Chen
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Qifu Liang
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Yanyan Zhou
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Huan Liu
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Mi Xiao
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Siting Li
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Qian Chen
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
| | - Hongyan Chen
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
- * E-mail: (HC); (TW)
| | - Taiyun Wei
- Fujian Province Key Laboratory of Plant Virology, Vector-borne Virus Research Center, State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control for Fujian and Taiwan Crops, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, PR China
- * E-mail: (HC); (TW)
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Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1233. [PMID: 33623008 PMCID: PMC7902664 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections. The effects of climate on vector-borne disease systems are highly context-dependent. Here, the authors incorporate laboratory-measured physiological traits of the mosquito Aedes aegypti into climate-driven mechanistic models to predict number, timing, and duration of outbreaks in Ecuador and Kenya.
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25
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Chaves LF, Valerín Cordero JA, Delgado G, Aguilar-Avendaño C, Maynes E, Gutiérrez Alvarado JM, Ramírez Rojas M, Romero LM, Marín Rodríguez R. Modeling the association between Aedes aegypti ovitrap egg counts, multi-scale remotely sensed environmental data and arboviral cases at Puntarenas, Costa Rica (2017-2018). CURRENT RESEARCH IN PARASITOLOGY & VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES 2021; 1:100014. [PMID: 35284867 PMCID: PMC8906134 DOI: 10.1016/j.crpvbd.2021.100014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2020] [Revised: 01/20/2021] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Problems with vector surveillance are a major barrier for the effective control of vector-borne disease transmission through Latin America. Here, we present results from a 80-week longitudinal study where Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) ovitraps were monitored weekly at 92 locations in Puntarenas, a coastal city in Costa Rica with syndemic Zika, chikungunya and dengue transmission. We used separate models to investigate the association of either Ae. aegypti-borne arboviral cases or Ae. aegypti egg counts with remotely sensed environmental variables. We also evaluated whether Ae. aegypti-borne arboviral cases were associated with Ae. aegypti egg counts. Using cross-correlation and time series modeling, we found that arboviral cases were not significantly associated with Ae. aegypti egg counts. Through model selection we found that cases had a non-linear response to multi-scale (1-km and 30-m resolution) measurements of temperature standard deviation (SD) with a lag of up to 4 weeks, while simultaneously increasing with finely-grained NDVI (30-m resolution). Meanwhile, median ovitrap Ae. aegypti egg counts increased, and respectively decreased, with temperature SD (1-km resolution) and EVI (30-m resolution) with a lag of 6 weeks. A synchrony analysis showed that egg counts had a travelling wave pattern, with synchrony showing cyclic changes with distance, a pattern not observed in remotely sensed data with 30-m and 10-m resolution. Spatially, using generalized additive models, we found that eggs were more abundant at locations with higher temperatures and where EVI was leptokurtic during the study period. Our results suggest that, in Puntarenas, remotely sensed environmental variables are associated with both Ae. aegypti-borne arbovirus transmission and Ae. aegypti egg counts from ovitraps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Fernando Chaves
- Vigilancia de la Salud, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
| | - José Angel Valerín Cordero
- Coordinación Regional, Programa Nacional de Manejo Integrado de Vectores, Región Pacífico Central, Ministerio de Salud, Puntarenas, Puntarenas, Código Postal 60101, Costa Rica
| | - Gabriela Delgado
- Oficina Central de Enlace, Programa Nacional de Manejo Integrado de Vectores, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
| | - Carlos Aguilar-Avendaño
- Oficina Central de Enlace, Programa Nacional de Manejo Integrado de Vectores, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
| | - Ezequías Maynes
- Oficina Central de Enlace, Programa Nacional de Manejo Integrado de Vectores, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
| | - José Manuel Gutiérrez Alvarado
- Oficina Central de Enlace, Programa Nacional de Manejo Integrado de Vectores, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
| | - Melissa Ramírez Rojas
- Vigilancia de la Salud, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
| | - Luis Mario Romero
- Departamento de Patología, Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad Nacional, Heredia, Heredia, Apartado Postal 304-3000, Costa Rica
| | - Rodrigo Marín Rodríguez
- Vigilancia de la Salud, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
- Oficina Central de Enlace, Programa Nacional de Manejo Integrado de Vectores, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Apartado Postal 10123-1000, Costa Rica
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Kua KP, Lee SWH. Randomized trials of housing interventions to prevent malaria and Aedes-transmitted diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0244284. [PMID: 33417600 PMCID: PMC7793286 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant public health problem in tropical regions. Housing improvements such as screening of doors and windows may be effective in reducing disease transmission, but the impact remains unclear. OBJECTIVES To examine whether housing interventions were effective in reducing mosquito densities in homes and the impact on the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. METHODS In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 16 online databases, including NIH PubMed, CINAHL Complete, LILACS, Ovid MEDLINE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized trials published from database inception to June 30, 2020. The primary outcome was the incidence of any mosquito-borne diseases. Secondary outcomes encompassed entomological indicators of the disease transmission. I2 values were used to explore heterogeneity between studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to assess the primary and secondary outcomes, with sub-group analyses for type of interventions on home environment, study settings (rural, urban, or mixed), and overall house type (traditional or modern housing). RESULTS The literature search yielded 4,869 articles. After screening, 18 studies were included in the qualitative review, of which nine were included in the meta-analysis. The studies enrolled 7,200 households in Africa and South America, reporting on malaria or dengue only. The type of home environmental interventions included modification to ceilings and ribbons to close eaves, screening doors and windows with nets, insecticide-treated wall linings in homes, nettings over gables and eaves openings, mosquito trapping systems, metal-roofed houses with mosquito screening, gable windows and closed eaves, and prototype houses using southeast Asian designs. Pooled analysis depicted a lower risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the housing intervention group (OR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.95; P = 0.03). Subgroup analysis depicted housing intervention reduced the risk of malaria in all settings (OR = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.39 to 1.01; P = 0.05). In urban environment, housing intervention was found to decrease the risk of both malaria and dengue infections (OR = 0.52; 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.99; P = 0.05).Meta-analysis of pooled odds ratio showed a significant benefit of improved housing in reducing indoor vector densities of both Aedes and Anopheles (OR = 0.35; 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.54; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Housing intervention could reduce transmission of malaria and dengue among people living in the homes. Future research should evaluate the protective effect of specific house features and housing improvements associated with urban development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kok Pim Kua
- Puchong Health Clinic, Petaling District Health Office, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Petaling, Malaysia
| | - Shaun Wen Huey Lee
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University Malaysia, Sunway City, Malaysia
- Asian Center for Evidence Synthesis in Population, Implementation, and Clinical Outcomes (PICO), Health and Well-being Cluster, Global Asia in the 21st Century (GA21) Platform, Monash University Malaysia, Sunway City, Malaysia
- Gerontechnology Laboratory, Global Asia in the 21st Century (GA21) Platform, Monash University Malaysia, Sunway City, Malaysia
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Taylor's University, Subang Jaya, Malaysia
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Kakarla SG, Bhimala KR, Kadiri MR, Kumaraswamy S, Mutheneni SR. Dengue situation in India: Suitability and transmission potential model for present and projected climate change scenarios. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 739:140336. [PMID: 32758966 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2020] [Revised: 06/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Dengue fever is mosquito borne viral disease caused by dengue virus and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. In recent years the dengue has spread rapidly to several regions and it becomes a major public health menace globally. Dengue transmission is strongly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall. In the present study, a climate driven dengue model was developed and predicted areas vulnerable for dengue transmission under the present and future climate change scenarios in India. The study also projected the dengue distribution risk map using representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in India in 2018-2030 (forthcoming period), 2031-2050 (intermediate period) and 2051-2080 (long period). The dengue cases assessed in India from 1998 to 2018 and found that the dengue transmission is gradually increasing year over year. The temperature data from 1980 to 2017 shows that, the mean temperatures are raising in the Southern region of India. During 2000-2017 periods the dengue transmission is steadily increasing across the India in compare with 1980-1999 periods. The dengue distribution risk is predicted and it is revealed that the coastal states have yearlong transmission possibility, but the high transmission potential is observed throughout the monsoon period. Due to the climate change, the expansion two more months of dengue transmission risk occurs in many regions of India. Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios revealed that dengue outbreaks might occur at larger volume in Southern, Eastern, and Central regions of India. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of climate change on dengue transmission. These results helps to suggest appropriate control measures should be implemented to limit the spread in future warmer climates. Besides these, a proper plan is required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the epidemic potential of dengue in India.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satya Ganesh Kakarla
- Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Tarnaka, Hyderabad 500007, Telangana, India
| | - Kantha Rao Bhimala
- CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, NAL Belur Campus, Bangalore 560037, Karnataka, India
| | - Madhusudhan Rao Kadiri
- Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Tarnaka, Hyderabad 500007, Telangana, India
| | - Sriram Kumaraswamy
- Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Tarnaka, Hyderabad 500007, Telangana, India
| | - Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni
- Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Tarnaka, Hyderabad 500007, Telangana, India.
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Vincent M, Larrieu S, Vilain P, Etienne A, Solet JL, François C, Roquebert B, Jaffar Bandjee MC, Filleul L, Menudier L. From the threat to the large outbreak: dengue on Reunion Island, 2015 to 2018. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020; 24. [PMID: 31771702 PMCID: PMC6885751 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2019.24.47.1900346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Background With more than 300 million infections estimated annually worldwide, dengue is the most prevalent arboviral infection. On Reunion Island, after a large outbreak in 1977–78, only limited episodes of viral circulation or sporadic cases were reported till 2015. Aim Our objective was to document and report on the circulation of dengue virus after the occurrence of a small outbreak during austral summer 2015/16 and until the large outbreak of 2018. Methods Beside the mandatory notification of biologically confirmed dengue cases, additional systems of surveillance were set up: estimation of dengue-like syndrome in people seeking care by their family doctor, surveillance of emergency department visits related to dengue, surveillance of hospitalised dengue patients and deaths classifications. Results After a moderate outbreak during summer 2015/16 with 231 cases, 2017 was characterised by limited viral circulation (97 cases) which, however, persisted during the austral winter. By February 2018, the number of cases had increased and led to a peak at the beginning of May 2018. More than 6,000 cases were reported this year (dengue virus type 2 only). In addition, six deaths of dengue patients were notified. Conclusion In 2017, the persistence of transmission during winter created favourable conditions for the emergence of an epidemic during summer 2018. After this moderate epidemic wave, the viral circulation persisted during winter 2018 for the second year, opening the door for the second wave in 2019 and for potential endemisation of the disease on Reunion Island in the near future.
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Cator LJ, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA, Moustaid FE, Smallwood TRC, LaDeau SL, Johansson MA, Hudson PJ, Boots M, Thomas MB, Power AG, Pawar S. The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics. Front Ecol Evol 2020; 8:189. [PMID: 32775339 PMCID: PMC7409824 DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Many important endemic and emerging diseases are transmitted by vectors that are biting arthropods. The functional traits of vectors can affect pathogen transmission rates directly and also through their effect on vector population dynamics. Increasing empirical evidence shows that vector traits vary significantly across individuals, populations, and environmental conditions, and at time scales relevant to disease transmission dynamics. Here, we review empirical evidence for variation in vector traits and how this trait variation is currently incorporated into mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission. We argue that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world. We provide a conceptual framework for incorporating trait variation into vector-borne disease transmission models, and highlight key empirical and theoretical challenges. This framework provides a means to conceptualize how traits can be incorporated in vector borne disease systems, and identifies key areas in which trait variation can be explored. Determining when and to what extent it is important to incorporate trait variation into vector borne disease models remains an important, outstanding question.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren J. Cator
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
| | - Leah R. Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
| | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
- BresMed America Inc, Las Vegas, NV, United States
| | | | - Shannon L. LaDeau
- The Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States
| | | | - Peter J. Hudson
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
| | - Michael Boots
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Matthew B. Thomas
- Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
| | - Alison G. Power
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
| | - Samraat Pawar
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
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Akter R, Hu W, Gatton M, Bambrick H, Naish S, Tong S. Different responses of dengue to weather variability across climate zones in Queensland, Australia. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 184:109222. [PMID: 32114157 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2019] [Revised: 01/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is a significant public health concern in northern Queensland, Australia. This study compared the epidemic features of dengue transmission among different climate zones and explored the threshold of weather variability for climate zones in relation to dengue in Queensland, Australia. METHODS Daily data on dengue cases and weather variables including minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall for the period of January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Climate zones shape file for Australia was also obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Kruskal-Wallis test was performed to check whether the distribution of dengue significantly differed between climate zones. Time series regression tree model was used to estimate the threshold effects of the monthly weather variables on dengue in different climate zones. RESULTS During the study period, the highest dengue incidence rate was found in the tropical climate zone (15.09/10,000) with the second highest in the grassland climate zone (3.49/10,000). Dengue responded differently to weather variability in different climate zones. In every climate zone, temperature was the primary predictor of dengue. However, the threshold values, type of temperature (e.g. maximum, minimum, or mean), and lag time for dengue varied between climate zones. Monthly mean temperature above 27°C at a lag of two months and monthly minimum temperature above 22°C at a lag of one month was found to be the most favourable weather condition for dengue in the tropical and subtropical climate zone, respectively. However, in the grassland climate zone, maximum temperature above 38°C at a lag of five months was found to be the ideal condition for dengue. Monthly rainfall with threshold value of 1.7 mm was found to be a significant contributor to dengue only in the tropical climate zone. CONCLUSIONS The temperature threshold for dengue was lower in both tropical and subtropical climate zones than in the grassland climate zone. The different temperature threshold between climate zones suggests that an early warning system would need to be developed based on local socio-ecological conditions of the climate zone to manage dengue control and intervention programs effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rokeya Akter
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia.
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Michelle Gatton
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Suchithra Naish
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
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He D, Zhao S, Lin Q, Musa SS, Stone L. New estimates of the Zika virus epidemic attack rate in Northeastern Brazil from 2015 to 2016: A modelling analysis based on Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) surveillance data. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0007502. [PMID: 32348302 PMCID: PMC7213748 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2019] [Revised: 05/11/2020] [Accepted: 03/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Between January 2015 and August 2016, two epidemic waves of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease swept the Northeastern (NE) region of Brazil. As a result, two waves of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) were observed concurrently. The mandatory reporting of ZIKV disease began region-wide in February 2016, and it is believed that ZIKV cases were significantly under-reported before that. The changing reporting rate has made it difficult to estimate the ZIKV infection attack rate, and studies in the literature vary widely from 17% to > 50%. The same applies to other key epidemiological parameters. In contrast, the diagnosis and reporting of GBS cases were reasonably reliable given the severity and easy recognition of the disease symptoms. In this paper, we aim to estimate the real number of ZIKV cases (i.e., the infection attack rate) and their dynamics in time, by scaling up from GBS surveillance data in NE Brazil. METHODOLOGY A mathematical compartmental model is constructed that makes it possible to infer the true epidemic dynamics of ZIKV cases based on surveillance data of excess GBS cases. The model includes the possibility that asymptomatic ZIKV cases are infectious. The model is fitted to the GBS surveillance data and the key epidemiological parameters are inferred by using a plug-and-play likelihood-based estimation. We make use of regional weather data to determine possible climate-driven impacts on the reproductive number [Formula: see text], and to infer the true ZIKV epidemic dynamics. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS The GBS surveillance data can be used to study ZIKV epidemics and may be appropriate when ZIKV reporting rates are not well understood. The overall infection attack rate (IAR) of ZIKV is estimated to be 24.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.1%-29.3%) of the population. By examining various asymptomatic scenarios, the IAR is likely to be lower than 33% over the two ZIKV waves. The risk rate from symptomatic ZIKV infection to develop GBS was estimated as ρ = 0.0061% (95% CI: 0.0050%-0.0086%) which is significantly less than current estimates. We found a positive association between local temperature and the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. Our analysis revealed that asymptomatic infections affect the estimation of ZIKV epidemics and need to also be carefully considered in related modelling studies. According to the estimated effective reproduction number and population wide susceptibility, we comment that a ZIKV outbreak would be unlikely in NE Brazil in the near future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daihai He
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Shi Zhao
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Lab, Shenzhen Research Institute, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
| | - Qianying Lin
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
- Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Salihu S. Musa
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Lewi Stone
- Mathematical Science, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Biomathematics Unit, School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Arbovirus vectors of epidemiological concern in the Americas: A scoping review of entomological studies on Zika, dengue and chikungunya virus vectors. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0220753. [PMID: 32027652 PMCID: PMC7004335 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Three arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) causing human disease have been the focus of a large number of studies in the Americas since 2013 due to their global spread and epidemiological impacts: Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses. A large proportion of infections by these viruses are asymptomatic. However, all three viruses are associated with moderate to severe health consequences in a small proportion of cases. Two mosquito species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, are among the world’s most prominent arboviral vectors, and are known vectors for all three viruses in the Americas. Objectives This review summarizes the state of the entomological literature surrounding the mosquito vectors of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses and factors affecting virus transmission. The rationale of the review was to identify and characterize entomological studies that have been conducted in the Americas since the introduction of chikungunya virus in 2013, encompassing a period of arbovirus co-circulation, and guide future research based on identified knowledge gaps. Methods The preliminary search for this review was conducted on PubMed (National Library of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States). The search included the terms ‘zika’ OR ‘dengue’ OR ‘chikungunya’ AND ‘vector’ OR ‘Aedes aegypti’ OR ‘Aedes albopictus’. The search was conducted on March 1st of 2018, and included all studies since January 1st of 2013. Results A total of 96 studies were included in the scoping review after initial screening and subsequent exclusion of out-of-scope studies, secondary data publications, and studies unavailable in English language. Key findings We observed a steady increase in number of publications, from 2013 to 2018, with half of all studies published from January 2017 to March 2018. Interestingly, information on Zika virus vector species composition was abundant, but sparse on Zika virus transmission dynamics. Few studies examined natural infection rates of Zika virus, vertical transmission, or co-infection with other viruses. This is in contrast to the wealth of research available on natural infection and co-infection for dengue and chikungunya viruses, although vertical transmission research was sparse for all three viruses.
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Pandey BD, Costello A. The dengue epidemic and climate change in Nepal. Lancet 2019; 394:2150-2151. [PMID: 31839187 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(19)32689-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2019] [Accepted: 10/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Basu Dev Pandey
- Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Anthony Costello
- Global Health and Sustainable Development, University College London, London WC1N 1EH, UK.
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Kamiya T, Greischar MA, Wadhawan K, Gilbert B, Paaijmans K, Mideo N. Temperature-dependent variation in the extrinsic incubation period elevates the risk of vector-borne disease emergence. Epidemics 2019; 30:100382. [PMID: 32004794 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2019] [Revised: 11/29/2019] [Accepted: 12/01/2019] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Identifying ecological drivers of disease transmission is central to understanding disease risks. For vector-borne diseases, temperature is a major determinant of transmission because vital parameters determining the fitness of parasites and vectors are highly temperature-sensitive, including the extrinsic incubation period required for parasites to develop within the vector. Temperature also underlies dramatic differences in the individual-level variation in the extrinsic incubation period, yet the influence of this variation in disease transmission is largely unexplored. We incorporate empirical estimates of dengue virus extrinsic incubation period and its variation across a range of temperatures into a stochastic model to examine the consequences for disease emergence. We find that such variation impacts the probability of disease emergence because exceptionally rapid, but empirically observed incubation - typically ignored by modelling only the average - increases the chance of disease emergence even at the limits of the temperature range for dengue transmission. We show that variation in the extrinsic incubation period causes the greatest proportional increase in the risk of disease emergence at cooler temperatures where the mean incubation period is long, and associated variation is large. Thus, ignoring EIP variation will likely lead to underestimation of the risk of vector-borne disease emergence in temperate climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tsukushi Kamiya
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada.
| | - Megan A Greischar
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada
| | - Kiran Wadhawan
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada
| | - Benjamin Gilbert
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada
| | - Krijn Paaijmans
- Center for Evolution & Medicine, Biodesign Center for Immunotherapy, Vaccines and Virotherapy, School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Nicole Mideo
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada
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Mordecai EA, Caldwell JM, Grossman MK, Lippi CA, Johnson LR, Neira M, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Savage V, Shocket MS, Sippy R, Stewart Ibarra AM, Thomas MB, Villena O. Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease. Ecol Lett 2019; 22:1690-1708. [PMID: 31286630 PMCID: PMC6744319 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13335] [Citation(s) in RCA: 262] [Impact Index Per Article: 52.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2019] [Revised: 05/22/2019] [Accepted: 06/06/2019] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of BiologyStanford University371 Serra MallStanfordCAUSA
| | | | - Marissa K. Grossman
- Department of Entomology and Center for Infectious Disease DynamicsPenn State UniversityUniversity ParkPA16802USA
| | - Catherine A. Lippi
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFLUSA
| | - Leah R. Johnson
- Department of StatisticsVirginia Polytechnic and State University250 Drillfield DriveBlacksburgVAUSA
| | - Marco Neira
- Center for Research on Health in Latin America (CISeAL)Pontificia Universidad Católica del EcuadorQuitoEcuador
| | - Jason R. Rohr
- Department of Biological SciencesEck Institute of Global HealthEnvironmental Change InitiativeUniversity of Notre Dame, Notre DameINUSA
| | - Sadie J. Ryan
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFLUSA
- School of Life SciencesUniversity of KwaZulu‐NatalDurbanSouth Africa
| | - Van Savage
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Department of BiomathematicsUniversity of California Los AngelesLos AngelesCA90095USA
- Santa Fe Institute1399 Hyde Park RdSanta FeNM87501USA
| | - Marta S. Shocket
- Department of BiologyStanford University371 Serra MallStanfordCAUSA
| | - Rachel Sippy
- Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFLUSA
- Institute for Global Health and Translational SciencesSUNY Upstate Medical UniversitySyracuseNY13210USA
| | - Anna M. Stewart Ibarra
- Institute for Global Health and Translational SciencesSUNY Upstate Medical UniversitySyracuseNY13210USA
| | - Matthew B. Thomas
- Department of Entomology and Center for Infectious Disease DynamicsPenn State UniversityUniversity ParkPA16802USA
| | - Oswaldo Villena
- Department of StatisticsVirginia Polytechnic and State University250 Drillfield DriveBlacksburgVAUSA
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Robert MA, Christofferson RC, Weber PD, Wearing HJ. Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change. Epidemics 2019; 28:100344. [PMID: 31175008 PMCID: PMC6791375 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2018] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael A Robert
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Statistics, University of the Sciences, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
| | - Rebecca C Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States; Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
| | - Paula D Weber
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States
| | - Helen J Wearing
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States
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Grubaugh ND, Saraf S, Gangavarapu K, Watts A, Tan AL, Oidtman RJ, Ladner JT, Oliveira G, Matteson NL, Kraemer MUG, Vogels CBF, Hentoff A, Bhatia D, Stanek D, Scott B, Landis V, Stryker I, Cone MR, Kopp EW, Cannons AC, Heberlein-Larson L, White S, Gillis LD, Ricciardi MJ, Kwal J, Lichtenberger PK, Magnani DM, Watkins DI, Palacios G, Hamer DH, Gardner LM, Perkins TA, Baele G, Khan K, Morrison A, Isern S, Michael SF, Andersen KG. Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic. Cell 2019; 178:1057-1071.e11. [PMID: 31442400 PMCID: PMC6716374 DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2019.07.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2018] [Revised: 04/15/2019] [Accepted: 07/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan D Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
| | - Sharada Saraf
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Karthik Gangavarapu
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Alexander Watts
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON M5B 1T8, Canada
| | - Amanda L Tan
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL 33965, USA; Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Rachel J Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Jason T Ladner
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, MD 21702, USA; Pathogen and Microbiome Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
| | - Glenn Oliveira
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Nathaniel L Matteson
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Chantal B F Vogels
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA
| | - Aaron Hentoff
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA
| | - Deepit Bhatia
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON M5B 1T8, Canada
| | - Danielle Stanek
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL 32399, USA
| | - Blake Scott
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL 32399, USA
| | - Vanessa Landis
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL 32399, USA
| | - Ian Stryker
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Marshall R Cone
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Edgar W Kopp
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Andrew C Cannons
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Lea Heberlein-Larson
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Stephen White
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Miami, FL 33125, USA
| | - Leah D Gillis
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Miami, FL 33125, USA
| | - Michael J Ricciardi
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL 33136, USA
| | - Jaclyn Kwal
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL 33136, USA
| | - Paola K Lichtenberger
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL 33136, USA
| | - Diogo M Magnani
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL 33136, USA; MassBiologics, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Boston, MA 02126, USA
| | - David I Watkins
- Department of Pathology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL 33136, USA
| | - Gustavo Palacios
- Center for Genome Sciences, US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, Fort Detrick, MD 21702, USA
| | - Davidson H Hamer
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA; Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Lauren M Gardner
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Department of Civil Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Guy Baele
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Kamran Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON M5B 1T8, Canada; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5B 1T8, Canada
| | - Andrea Morrison
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL 32399, USA
| | - Sharon Isern
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL 33965, USA
| | - Scott F Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL 33965, USA.
| | - Kristian G Andersen
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA; Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
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Ishikawa H, Shimogawara R. Risk Assessment of Dengue Autochthonous Infections in Tokyo during Summer, Especially in the Period of the 2020 Olympic Games. Jpn J Infect Dis 2019; 72:399-406. [PMID: 31366859 DOI: 10.7883/yoken.jjid.2019.094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
An outbreak of autochthonous dengue fever occurred in the summer of 2014 in Tokyo, Japan. Numerous participants and spectators from abroad are expected to visit Tokyo in the summer of 2020. This study aims to analyze the risk of autochthonous dengue infections in Tokyo in summer and also assess the additional risk in the Olympiad using a mathematical model. A stochastic transmission model was developed with the cooperation of seasonal factors that greatly influence the transmission cycle of dengue virus, and stochastic simulations were conducted for each scenario provided adequately. This study found that (i) the incidence of dengue autochthonous infections is predicted to occur in a small number of cases; (ii) the local climate greatly influences the scale of dengue autochthonous infections; (iii) the incidence reaches its peak in August and early September; and (iv) the possibility of progressing to dengue outbreak is rare. In the Olympiad to be held in the summer of 2020, an additional risk of dengue autochthonous infections will amount to double compared with that in other years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hirofumi Ishikawa
- Department of Environmental parasitology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences
| | - Rieko Shimogawara
- Department of Environmental parasitology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences.,Department of Parasitology, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
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Chesnut M, Muñoz LS, Harris G, Freeman D, Gama L, Pardo CA, Pamies D. In vitro and in silico Models to Study Mosquito-Borne Flavivirus Neuropathogenesis, Prevention, and Treatment. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2019; 9:223. [PMID: 31338335 PMCID: PMC6629778 DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2019.00223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2019] [Accepted: 06/11/2019] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne flaviviruses can cause disease in the nervous system, resulting in a significant burden of morbidity and mortality. Disease models are necessary to understand neuropathogenesis and identify potential therapeutics and vaccines. Non-human primates have been used extensively but present major challenges. Advances have also been made toward the development of humanized mouse models, but these models still do not fully represent human pathophysiology. Recent developments in stem cell technology and cell culture techniques have allowed the development of more physiologically relevant human cell-based models. In silico modeling has also allowed researchers to identify and predict transmission patterns and discover potential vaccine and therapeutic candidates. This review summarizes the research on in vitro and in silico models used to study three mosquito-borne flaviviruses that cause neurological disease in humans: West Nile, Dengue, and Zika. We also propose a roadmap for 21st century research on mosquito-borne flavivirus neuropathogenesis, prevention, and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan Chesnut
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Laura S. Muñoz
- Division of Neuroimmunology, Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
- Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Georgina Harris
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Dana Freeman
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Lucio Gama
- Department of Molecular and Comparative Pathobiology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, United States
| | - Carlos A. Pardo
- Division of Neuroimmunology, Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
- Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - David Pamies
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States
- Department of Physiology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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Yuan B, Lee H, Nishiura H. Assessing dengue control in Tokyo, 2014. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007468. [PMID: 31226116 PMCID: PMC6588210 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2019] [Accepted: 05/14/2019] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background In summer 2014, an autochthonous outbreak of dengue occurred in Tokyo, Japan, in which Yoyogi Park acted as the focal area of transmission. Recognizing the outbreak, concerted efforts were made to control viral spread, which included mosquito control, public announcement of the outbreak, and a total ban on entering the park. We sought to assess the effectiveness of these control measures. Methodology/Principal findings We used a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics. Using dates of exposure and illness onset, we categorized cases into three groups according to the availability of these datasets. The infection process was parametrically modeled by generation, and convolution of the infection process and the incubation period was fitted to the data. By estimating the effective reproduction number, we determined that the effect of dengue risk communication together with mosquito control from 28 August 2014 was insufficiently large to lower the reproduction number to below 1. However, once Yoyogi Park was closed on 4 September, the value of the effective reproduction number began to fall below 1, and the associated relative reduction in the effective reproduction number was estimated to be 20%–60%. The mean incubation period was an estimated 5.8 days. Conclusions/Significance Regardless of the assumed number of generations of cases, the combined effect of mosquito control, risk communication, and park closure appeared to be successful in interrupting the chain of dengue transmission in Tokyo. Evaluating the interventions implemented during an outbreak of mosquito-borne disease is of utmost importance, offering lessons for future control strategies. By retrospectively analyzing data of the first autochthonous dengue epidemic of the 21st century in Tokyo, Japan, we assessed the effectiveness of the interventions. Once a dengue outbreak was confirmed in late August 2014, the government of Japan took drastic mosquito control measures, targeting both adults and larvae. News of the outbreak was also widely disseminated via mass media along with experts’ recommendations as to how people could avoid the risks of dengue infection. As the outbreak was not immediately controlled, the focal area of transmission, Yoyogi Park, was closed on 4 September. Using a mathematical model, we assessed how well dengue virus transmission was intervened in relation to the start times of interventions. As we incorporated precise timing into the model, we directly modeled the time of infection and accounted for the time delay from infection to illness onset. Thus, we revealed that mosquito control and risk communication measures alone could not interrupt the chain of transmission; however, adding park closure to these interventions was substantially effective in reducing the number of transmissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Baoyin Yuan
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido, Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan
| | - Hyojung Lee
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido, Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido, Japan
- CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan
- * E-mail:
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Climate change and the rising infectiousness of dengue. Emerg Top Life Sci 2019; 3:133-142. [PMID: 33523146 PMCID: PMC7288996 DOI: 10.1042/etls20180123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2019] [Revised: 03/22/2019] [Accepted: 03/28/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
The disease burden of dengue has been steadily rising over the last half-century due to a multitude of factors, including global trade and travel, urbanization, population growth, and climate variability and change, that facilitate conductive conditions for the proliferation of dengue vectors and viruses. This review describes how climate, specifically temperature, affects the vectors’ ability to cause and sustain outbreaks, and how the infectiousness of dengue is influenced by climatic change. The review is focused on the core concepts and frameworks derived in the area of epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases and outlines the sensitivity of vectorial capacity and vector-to-human transmission on climatic conditions. It further reviews studies linking mathematical or statistical models of disease transmission to scenarios of projected climate change and provides recommendations for future research directions.
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Oidtman RJ, Lai S, Huang Z, Yang J, Siraj AS, Reiner RC, Tatem AJ, Perkins TA, Yu H. Inter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1148. [PMID: 30850598 PMCID: PMC6408462 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09035-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 02/12/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China experienced its worst dengue epidemic on record, with incidence exceeding the historical average by two orders of magnitude. To disentangle contributions from multiple factors to inter-annual variation in epidemic size, we fitted a semi-mechanistic model to time series data from 2005-2015 and performed a series of factorial simulation experiments in which seasonal epidemics were simulated under all combinations of year-specific patterns of four time-varying factors: imported cases, mosquito density, temperature, and residual variation in local conditions not explicitly represented in the model. Our results indicate that while epidemics in most years were limited by unfavorable conditions with respect to one or more factors, the epidemic in 2014 was made possible by the combination of favorable conditions for all factors considered in our analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel J Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, 46556, IN, USA
| | - Shengjie Lai
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, SE-11355, Sweden
| | - Zhoujie Huang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Juan Yang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Amir S Siraj
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, 46556, IN, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, WA, USA
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, SE-11355, Sweden
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, 46556, IN, USA.
| | - Hongjie Yu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China.
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Chandrasegaran K, Juliano SA. How Do Trait-Mediated Non-lethal Effects of Predation Affect Population-Level Performance of Mosquitoes? Front Ecol Evol 2019; 7. [PMID: 31218216 DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Non-lethal, trait-mediated effects of predation impact prey behavior and life-history traits. Studying how these effects in turn influence prey demography is crucial to understand prey life-history evolution. Mosquitoes are important vectors that claim several million lives every year worldwide by transmitting a range of pathogens. Several ecological factors affect life-history traits of both larval and adult mosquitoes, creating effects that cascade to population-level consequences. Few studies have comprehensively explored the non-lethal effects of predation and its interactions with resources and competition on larval, adult, and population traits of mosquitoes. Understanding these interactions is important because the effects of predation are hypothesized to rescue prey populations from the effects of density-dependence resulting from larval competition. Aedes aegypti larvae reared at two different larval densities and subjected to three non-lethal predator treatments were monitored for survival, development time, and adult size through the larval stages to adult eclosion, and adult females were monitored for survival and reproduction through their first gonotrophic cycle. Intraspecific competition increased larval development time, yielded small-bodied adults, and reduced fecundity in individuals exposed to predatory chemical cues as larvae. Exposure to cues from a living predator affected both body size and latency to blood feed in females. Analysis of life-table traits revealed significant effects of competition on net reproductive rate (R 0) of mosquitoes. The interaction between competition and predator treatments significantly affected the cohort rate of increase (r) and the index of performance (r'). The index of performance, which estimates rate of population change based on the size-fecundity relationship, was significantly and positively correlated with r, but overestimated r slightly. Lack of significant effect of predator treatments and larval density on cohort generation time (T c) further suggests that the observed effects of treatments on r and r' were largely a consequence of the effects on R 0. Also, the significant effects of treatment combinations on larval development time, adult body size and fecundity were ultimately manifested as effects on life-table traits estimated from adult survival and reproduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karthikeyan Chandrasegaran
- National Centre for Biological Sciences, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bengaluru, India.,School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, United States.,SASTRA University, Tirumalaisamudram, Thanjavur, India.,Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India
| | - Steven A Juliano
- School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, United States
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Tennant W, Recker M. Robustness of the reproductive number estimates in vector-borne disease systems. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006999. [PMID: 30557351 PMCID: PMC6312349 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2018] [Revised: 12/31/2018] [Accepted: 11/14/2018] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The required efforts, feasibility and predicted success of an intervention strategy against an infectious disease are partially determined by its basic reproduction number, R0. In its simplest form R0 can be understood as the product of the infectious period, the number of infectious contacts and the per-contact transmission probability, which in the case of vector-transmitted diseases necessarily extend to the vector stages. As vectors do not usually recover from infection, they remain infectious for life, which places high significance on the vector's life expectancy. Current methods for estimating the R0 for a vector-borne disease are mostly derived from compartmental modelling frameworks assuming constant vector mortality rates. We hypothesised that some of the assumptions underlying these models can lead to unrealistic high vector life expectancies with important repercussions for R0 estimates. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Here we used a stochastic, individual-based model which allowed us to directly measure the number of secondary infections arising from one index case under different assumptions about vector mortality. Our results confirm that formulas based on age-independent mortality rates can overestimate R0 by nearly 100% compared to our own estimate derived from first principles. We further provide a correction factor that can be used with a standard R0 formula and adjusts for the discrepancies due to erroneous vector age distributions. CONCLUSION Vector mortality rates play a crucial role for the success and general epidemiology of vector-transmitted diseases. Many modelling efforts intrinsically assume these to be age-independent, which, as clearly demonstrated here, can lead to severe over-estimation of the disease's reproduction number. Our results thus re-emphasise the importance of obtaining field-relevant and species-dependent vector mortality rates, which in turn would facilitate more realistic intervention impact predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warren Tennant
- Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, United Kingdom
| | - Mario Recker
- Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, United Kingdom
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45
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España G, Grefenstette J, Perkins A, Torres C, Campo Carey A, Diaz H, de la Hoz F, Burke DS, van Panhuis WG. Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia. Sci Rep 2018; 8:12201. [PMID: 30111778 PMCID: PMC6093909 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-30647-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2017] [Accepted: 07/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face difficult decisions regarding spatial targeting of interventions to optimally allocate limited resources. We used a large-scale, data-driven, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to explore CHIKV mitigation strategies, including strategies based on previous DENV outbreaks. Our model represents CHIKV transmission in a realistic population of Colombia with 45 million individuals in 10.6 million households, schools, and workplaces. Our model uses high-resolution probability maps for the occurrence of the Ae. aegypti mosquito vector to estimate mosquito density in Colombia. We found that vector control in all 521 municipalities with mosquito populations led to 402,940 fewer clinical cases of CHIKV compared to a baseline scenario without intervention. We also explored using data about previous dengue virus (DENV) epidemics to inform CHIKV mitigation strategies. Compared to the baseline scenario, 314,437 fewer cases occurred when we simulated vector control only in 301 municipalities that had previously reported DENV, illustrating the value of available data from previous outbreaks. When varying the implementation parameters for vector control, we found that faster implementation and scale-up of vector control led to the greatest proportionate reduction in cases. Using available data for epidemic simulations can strengthen decision making against new epidemic threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guido España
- University of Notre Dame, Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, Notre Dame, IN, United States.
| | - John Grefenstette
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Health Policy and Management, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
| | - Alex Perkins
- University of Notre Dame, Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, Notre Dame, IN, United States
| | - Claudia Torres
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Department of Electrical Engineering, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Alfonso Campo Carey
- Colombia Instituto Nacional de Salud, Grupo de Gestión del Riesgo y Respuesta Inmediata, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Hernando Diaz
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Department of Electrical Engineering, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Fernando de la Hoz
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Department of Public Health, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Donald S Burke
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
| | - Willem G van Panhuis
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
- University of Pittsburgh, Department of Biomedical Informatics, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
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46
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A mathematical model for Zika virus transmission dynamics with a time-dependent mosquito biting rate. Theor Biol Med Model 2018; 15:11. [PMID: 30064447 PMCID: PMC6069545 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-018-0083-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2018] [Accepted: 07/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mathematical modeling has become a tool used to address many emerging diseases. One of the most basic and popular modeling frameworks is the compartmental model. Unfortunately, most of the available compartmental models developed for Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission were designed to describe and reconstruct only past, short-time ZIKV outbreaks in which the effects of seasonal change to entomological parameters can be ignored. To make an accurate long-term prediction of ZIKV transmission, the inclusion of seasonal effects into an epidemic model is unavoidable. METHODS We developed a vector-borne compartmental model to analyze the spread of the ZIKV during the 2015-2016 outbreaks in Bahia, Brazil and to investigate the impact of two vector control strategies, namely, reducing mosquito biting rates and reducing mosquito population size. The model considered the influences of seasonal change on the ZIKV transmission dynamics via the time-varying mosquito biting rate. The model was also validated by comparing the model prediction with reported data that were not used to calibrate the model. RESULTS We found that the model can give a very good fit between the simulation results and the reported Zika cases in Bahia (R-square = 0.9989). At the end of 2016, the total number of ZIKV infected people was predicted to be 1.2087 million. The model also predicted that there would not be a large outbreak from May 2016 to December 2016 due to the decrease of the susceptible pool. Implementing disease mitigation by reducing the mosquito biting rates was found to be more effective than reducing the mosquito population size. Finally, the correlation between the time series of estimated mosquito biting rates and the average temperature was also suggested. CONCLUSIONS The proposed ZIKV transmission model together with the estimated weekly biting rates can reconstruct the past long-time multi-peak ZIKV outbreaks in Bahia.
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47
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Codeço CT, Villela DAM, Coelho FC. Estimating the effective reproduction number of dengue considering temperature-dependent generation intervals. Epidemics 2018; 25:101-111. [PMID: 29945778 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2017] [Revised: 05/14/2018] [Accepted: 05/29/2018] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a measure of transmission that can be calculated from standard incidence data to timely detect the beginning of epidemics. It has being increasingly used for surveillance of directly transmitted diseases. However, current methods for Rt estimation do not apply for vector borne diseases, whose transmission cycle depends on temperature. Here we propose a method that provides dengue's Rt estimates in the presence of temperature-mediated seasonality and apply this method to simulated and real data from two cities in Brazil where dengue is endemic. The method shows good precision in the simulated data. When applied to the real data, it shows differences in the transmission profile of the two cities and identifies periods of higher transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia T Codeço
- Scientific Computing Program/Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
| | - Daniel A M Villela
- Scientific Computing Program/Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Flavio C Coelho
- School of Applied Mathematics/Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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48
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Coffman JE, Metz SW, Brackbill A, Paul M, Miley MJ, DeSimone J, Luft JC, de Silva A, Tian S. Optimization of Surface Display of DENV2 E Protein on a Nanoparticle to Induce Virus Specific Neutralizing Antibody Responses. Bioconjug Chem 2018; 29:1544-1552. [DOI: 10.1021/acs.bioconjchem.8b00090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jason E. Coffman
- Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27607, United States
| | | | | | | | | | - Joseph DeSimone
- Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27607, United States
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Kraemer MUG, Bisanzio D, Reiner RC, Zakar R, Hawkins JB, Freifeld CC, Smith DL, Hay SI, Brownstein JS, Perkins TA. Inferences about spatiotemporal variation in dengue virus transmission are sensitive to assumptions about human mobility: a case study using geolocated tweets from Lahore, Pakistan. EPJ DATA SCIENCE 2018; 7:16. [PMID: 30854281 PMCID: PMC6404370 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0144-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 05/31/2018] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Billions of users of mobile phones, social media platforms, and other technologies generate an increasingly large volume of data that has the potential to be leveraged towards solving public health challenges. These and other big data resources tend to be most successful in epidemiological applications when utilized within an appropriate conceptual framework. Here, we demonstrate the importance of assumptions about host mobility in a framework for dynamic modeling of infectious disease spread among districts within a large urban area. Our analysis focused on spatial and temporal variation in the transmission of dengue virus (DENV) during a series of large seasonal epidemics in Lahore, Pakistan during 2011-2014. Similar to many directly transmitted diseases, DENV transmission occurs primarily where people spend time during daytime hours, given that DENV is transmitted by a day-biting mosquito. We inferred spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission under five different assumptions about mobility patterns among ten districts of Lahore: no movement among districts, movement following patterns of geo-located tweets, movement proportional to district population size, and movement following the commonly used gravity and radiation models. Overall, we found that inferences about spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission were highly sensitive to this range of assumptions about intra-urban human mobility patterns, although the three assumptions that allowed for a modest degree of intra-urban mobility all performed similarly in key respects. Differing inferences about transmission patterns based on our analysis are significant from an epidemiological perspective, as they have different implications for where control efforts should be targeted and whether conditions for transmission became more or less favorable over time. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL The online version of this article (10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0144-x) contains supplementary material.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritz U. G. Kraemer
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - D. Bisanzio
- RTI International, Washington, USA
- Center for Tropical Diseases, Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria Hospital, Negrar, Italy
| | - R. C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - R. Zakar
- Department of Public Health, University of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - J. B. Hawkins
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - C. C. Freifeld
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
- College of Computer and Information Science, Northeastern University, Boston, USA
| | - D. L. Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
- Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, USA
| | - S. I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - J. S. Brownstein
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, USA
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