Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections

An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios

The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according to the IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution and is threatened by habitat loss and land cover changes. Thus, the present study attempted to assess the habitat suitability using the species distribution model approach for the first time and projected its future in response to climate change, habitat, and urbanization factors. The results revealed that out of the total geographical extent of 188,316 km2, only 11,374 km2 (6.03%) were identified as suitable habitat for this species. The results also revealed that habitat significantly declined across its range (>60%) under certain climate change scenarios. Moreover, in the present climate scenario protected areas such as Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) in Nepal exhibited the highest mean extent of habitat whereas, in India, Dibru-Saikhowa National Park (0.631) is found to be the most suitable habitat. Notably, two protected areas in Uttarakhand, India, specifically Corbett National Park (0.530) and Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have also demonstrated suitable habitats for C. hispidus. Given that protected areas showing a future rise in habitat suitability might also be regarded as potential sites for species translocation, this study underscores the importance of implementing proactive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on this species. It is essential to prioritize habitat restoration, focused protection measures, and further species-level ecological exploration to address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration and coordinated conservation actions between nations is crucial to safeguarding the long-term survival of the species throughout its distribution range.

Implications for the conservation of deep-water corals in the face of multiple stressors: A case study from the New Zealand region

The waters around New Zealand are a global hotspot of biodiversity for deep-water corals; approximately one sixth of the known deep-water coral species of the world have been recorded in the region. Deep-water corals are vulnerable to climate-related stressors and from the damaging effects of commercial fisheries. Current protection measures do not account for the vulnerability of deep-water corals to future climatic conditions, which are predicted to alter the distribution of suitable habitat for them. Using recently developed habitat suitability models for 12 taxa of deep-water corals fitted to current and future seafloor environmental conditions (under different future climatic conditions: SSP2 - 4.5 and SSP3 - 7.0) we explore possible levels of spatial protection using the decision-support tool Zonation. Specifically, we assess the impact of bottom trawling on predictions of current distributions of deep-water corals, and then assess the effectiveness of possible protection for deep-water corals, while accounting for habitat refugia under future climatic conditions. The cumulative impact of bottom trawling was predicted to impact all taxa, but particularly the reef-forming corals. Core areas of suitable habitat were predicted to decrease under future climatic conditions for many taxa. We found that designing protection using current day predictions alone, having accounted for the impacts of historic fishing impacts, was unlikely to provide adequate conservation for deep water-corals under future climate change. Accounting for future distributions in spatial planning identified areas which may provide climate refugia whilst still providing efficient protection for current distributions. These gains in conservation value may be particularly important given the predicted reduction in suitable habitat for deep-water corals due to bottom fishing and climate change. Finally, the possible impact that protection measures may have on deep-water fisheries was assessed using a measure of current fishing value (kg km-2 fish) and future fishing value (predicted under future climate change scenarios).

30×30 biodiversity gains rely on national coordination

Global commitments to protect 30% of land by 2030 present an opportunity to combat the biodiversity crisis, but reducing extinction risk will depend on where countries expand protection. Here, we explore a range of 30×30 conservation scenarios that vary what dimension of biodiversity is prioritized (taxonomic groups, species-at-risk, biodiversity facets) and how protection is coordinated (transnational, national, or regional approaches) to test which decisions influence our ability to capture biodiversity in spatial planning. Using Canada as a model nation, we evaluate how well each scenario captures biodiversity using scalable indicators while accounting for climate change, data bias, and uncertainty. We find that only 15% of all terrestrial vertebrates, plants, and butterflies (representing only 6.6% of species-at-risk) are adequately represented in existing protected land. However, a nationally coordinated approach to 30×30 could protect 65% of all species representing 40% of all species-at-risk. How protection is coordinated has the largest impact, with regional approaches protecting up to 38% fewer species and 65% fewer species-at-risk, while the choice of biodiversity incurs much smaller trade-offs. These results demonstrate the potential of 30×30 while highlighting the critical importance of biodiversity-informed national strategies.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Small tradeoffs between social equity and conservation outcomes in a freshwater payment for ecosystem services scheme

Conservation programs around the world aim to balance social equity, economic efficiency, and conservation outcomes. Tradeoffs among these three objectives necessarily exist but have been quantified in only a handful of systems. Here, we use a multi-objective mathematical optimization model in a large, water-limited river basin to quantify these tradeoffs in a freshwater payment for ecosystem services (PES) program aimed at establishing environmental flows (e-flows). Across a range of budgetary and future climate scenarios, we find that tradeoffs between social equity and conservation outcomes are small. We also show that payment schemes in which incentives are allocated to a single water use sector are much less cost-effective than schemes in which incentives are allocated among multiple sectors. Thus, allocating payments equally among agricultural, municipal, and industrial sectors can be both more equitable and more cost-effective. Overall, our results illustrate how some carefully designed conservation programs may be able to achieve a triple bottom line of social equity, economic efficiency, and conservation effectiveness.

The performance of protected-area expansions in representing tropical Andean species: past trends and climate change prospects

Protected area (PA) extent has increased significantly over the last 150 years globally, but it is yet unclear whether progress in expanding coverage has been accompanied by improved performance in ecological representation. Here, we explore temporal trends in the performance of PA networks in representing > 16,000 vertebrate and plant species in tropical Andean countries based on species bioclimatic niche modelling. We use a randomization analysis to assess whether representation gains over time (1937-2015) are the expected consequence of increasing the overall area of the network or the result of better designed networks. We also explore the impact of climate change on protected-area representation based on projected species distributions in 2070. We found that PAs added in the last three to four decades were better at representing species diversity than random additions overall. Threatened species, amphibians and reptiles are the exception. Species representation is projected to decrease across PAs under climate change, although PA expansions over the last decade (2006-2015) better represented species' future bioclimatic niches than did sites selected at random for most evaluated groups. These findings indicate an unbalanced representation across taxa, and raises concern over under-represented groups, including threatened species, and species' representation under climate change scenarios. However, they also suggest that decisions related to locating protected areas have become more strategic in recent decades and illustrate that indicators tracking representativeness of networks are crucial in PA monitoring frameworks.

On the road: Anthropogenic factors drive the invasion risk of a wild solitary bee species

Complex biotic networks of invaders and their new environments pose immense challenges for researchers aiming to predict current and future occupancy of introduced species. This might be especially true for invasive bees, as they enter novel trophic interactions. Little attention has been paid to solitary, invasive wild bees, despite their increasing recognition as a potential global threat to biodiversity. Here, we present the first comprehensive species distribution modelling approach targeting the invasive bee Megachile sculpturalis, which is currently undergoing parallel range expansion in North America and Europe. While the species has largely colonised the most highly suitable areas of North America over the past decades, its invasion of Europe seems to be in its early stages. We showed that its current distribution is largely explained by anthropogenic factors, suggesting that its spread is facilitated by road and maritime traffic, largely beyond its intrinsic dispersal ability. Our results suggest that M. sculpturalis is likely to be negatively affected by future climate change in North America, while in Europe the potential suitable areas at-risk of invasion remain equally large. Based on our study, we emphasise the role of expert knowledge for evaluation of ecologically meaningful variables implemented and interpreted for species distribution modelling. We strongly recommend that the monitoring of this and other invasive pollinator species should be prioritised in areas identified as at-risk, alongside development of effective management strategies.

Multi-taxon biodiversity assessment of Southern Patagonia: Supporting conservation strategies at different landscapes

In the last years, different spatial analyses were developed to support multi-taxon biodiversity conservation strategies. In fact, the use of species distribution models as input allowed to create spatial decision-support maps. Of special interest are maps of potential biodiversity (MPB), which define distribution and ecological requirements of relevant species and maps of priority conservation areas (MPCA), which define priority areas considering endemism and richness. The objective of this paper was to assess multi-taxon biodiversity based on two different spatial analyses and to test their efficiency to support conservation decision at Patagonia. We computed 119 potential habitat suitability maps (one deer, birds, lizards, darkling-beetles, plants) with ENFA (Environmental Niche Factor Analysis) and 15 environmental variables, using Biomapper software. ENFA calculate two ecological indexes (marginality and specialization) which describe the narrowness of species niches and how extreme are the optimum environmental conditions related to the whole study area. These maps were combined obtaining a MPB and MPCA using Zonation software. Multivariate analyses were performed to compare methodologies, analysing environmental variables, ecological areas, forest types and protected areas. Multivariate and ecological indexes showed that deer, lizards and darkling-beetles presented a narrow range, while birds and plants presented a large range of marginality and specialization mainly related to vegetation and climate. At provincial level, highest potential biodiversity and conservation priority values were related to shrublands and humid steppes. However, MPCA showed higher values related to forests and alpine vegetation due to endemism, while MPB showed differences among forest types. These analyses showed that the most valuable areas were not represented in the protected areas, however, many higher conservation priority values were found inside the protected compared with unprotected areas. Different spatial decision-support maps presented similar outputs at provincial scale, but differed in the forest landscape matrix. Both methodologies can be used to plan conservation strategies depending on the specific objectives (e.g. highlighting richness or endemism).

Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios

Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 & SSP5‐8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 10⁴ km², which accounts for 16.94% of China's territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 10⁴ km², 81.50 × 10⁴ km², and 0.96 × 10⁴ km², respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP‐1‐2.6‐2070s, SSP‐5‐8.5‐2070s, and SSP‐5‐8.5‐2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1‐2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest.

An Innovative Framework on Spatial Boundary Optimization of Multiple International Designated Land Use

The continuous improvement of international protection awareness has dramatically increased the number of protection organizations and promoted various reserve-naming methods. However, the existing global natural reserves have either fully or partially overlapped, thereby allowing the same region to hold various international titles, resulting in serious issues, which are especially manifested in the boundary delimitation process of natural reserves. Therefore, delimiting the titles of reserve borders will become an enormous challenge in protected-area governance worldwide. This study conducted an in-depth investigation of the technical methods for delineating the spatial boundaries of natural reserves. Taking Jiangshan Nature Reserve in China as the case object, the Candidate Area–Natural background–Heritage Resource–Construction (C-NHC) framework was constructed, and the boundaries of the new reserves were delineated. This study has changed the status quo of the spatial overlap of the reserve through the quantitative evaluation of the conflict patches and the triple optimization of the boundary of the reserve. The area of the new reserve is 150.524 km2, which is 6.682 km2 larger than the original one. The original reserves are all included within the scope of the new one. This study provides guidance and new insights into the boundary delineation of integrated nature reserves worldwide.

Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: The case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar

It is commonly accepted that species should move toward higher elevations and latitudes to track shifting isotherms as climate warms. However, temperature might not be the only limiting factor determining species distribution. Species might move to opposite directions to track changes in other climatic variables. Here, we used an extensive occurrence data set and an ensemble modelling approach to model the climatic niche and to predict the distribution of the seven baobab species (genus Adansonia) present in Madagascar. Using climatic projections from three global circulation models, we predicted species' future distribution and extinction risk for 2055 and 2085 under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two dispersal scenarios. We disentangled the role of each climatic variable in explaining species range shift looking at relative variable importance and future climatic anomalies. Four baobab species (Adansonia rubrostipa, Adansonia madagascariensis, Adansonia perrieri¸ and Adansonia suarezensis) could experience a severe range contraction in the future (>70% for year 2085 under RCP 8.5, assuming a zero-dispersal hypothesis). For three out of the four threatened species, range contraction was mainly explained by an increase in temperature seasonality, especially in the North of Madagascar, where they are currently distributed. In tropical regions, where species are commonly adapted to low seasonality, we found that temperature seasonality will generally increase. It is, thus, very likely that many species in the tropics will be forced to move equatorward to avoid an increase in temperature seasonality. Yet, several ecological (e.g., equatorial limit, or unsuitable deforested habitat) or geographical barriers (absence of lands) could prevent species to move equatorward, thus increasing the extinction risk of many tropical species, like endemic baobab species in Madagascar.

A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Climate is a major determinant of the world's distribution of biodiversity and species ranges are expected to shift as the climate changes. For conservation policies to be cost-effective in the long run these changes need to be taken into account. To some extent, policies can be adapted over time, but transaction costs, lock-in effects and path dependence limit the extent to which such adaptation is possible. Thus it is desirable that conservation policies be designed so that they are cost-effective in the long run even without future adaptations. Given that the future climate change is highly uncertain, the policies need to be robust to climatic uncertainty. In this paper we present an approach for the robustness analysis with regard to the cost-effectiveness of conservation policies in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is applied to the conservation of a grasshopper species in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. For the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of considered policies we develop a climate-ecological-economic model. We show that in the near future all considered policies have a similar level of robustness, while in the more distant future the policies differ substantially in their robustness and a trade-off emerges between the expected performance and robustness of a policy.

Maximizing the effectiveness of national commitments to protected area expansion for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem carbon under climate change

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned.

Assessment of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Montane Forests in the Peruvian Andes: Implications for Conservation Prioritization

Future climate change will result in profound shifts in the distribution and abundance of biodiversity in the Tropical Andes, and poses a challenge to contemporary conservation planning in the region. However, currently it is not well understood where the impacts of climate disruption will be most severe and how conservation policy should respond. This study examines climate change impacts in the Peruvian Andes, with a specific focus on tropical montane forest ecosystems, which are particularly susceptible to climate change. Using an ensemble of classification models coupled with different climate change scenarios, we estimate high and low potential impacts on montane forest, by projecting which areas will become climatically unsuitable to support montane forest ecosystems by 2070. These projections are subsequently used to examine potential impacts on protected areas containing montane forest. The modeling output indicates that climate change will have a high potential impact on 58% of all montane forests, particularly in the elevation range between 800 and 1200 m.a.s.l. Furthermore, about 64% of montane forests located in protected areas will be exposed to high potential impact. These results highlight the need for Peru’s conservation institutions to incorporate climate change considerations into prevailing conservation plans and adaptation strategies. To adjust to climate change, the adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems in the Peruvian Andes should be enhanced through restorative and preventive conservation measures such as improving forest functions and mitigating deforestation and forest degradation pressures.

Farmers' perception on soil erosion in Ghana: Implication for developing sustainable soil management strategy

Farmers’ perception on soil erosion has not adequately reported in the conditions of Ghana though its causes and effects are time and site-specific. The objective of this study was to assess farmers’ perception on soil erosion and implication for developing soil management strategy in the Eastern and Northern Regions of Ghana. A total of 130 household head farmers were interviewed and complemented with field observation and group. Data was analyzed using descriptive, chi-square test, T-test and binary logistic regression. The results show that there was significant variation in socioeconomic, farm and institutional attributes among the farmers`in the study regions. In the Eastern and Northern Regions, significantly higher proportions of the farmers (95.7% and 86.7%, respectively) perceived soil erosion as serious problem. Significantly higher proportions of the respondents (80%) perceived severe erosion problem at homestead land in the Eastern Region whereas severe erosion in the Northern Region was more noticed at distance farmlands (85.0%). In the two regions, the major causes of severe erosion as perceived by most farmers were over-cultivation, deforestation and heavy rainfall events. In the Eastern and Northern Regions, 58.6% and 75.0% of the farmers perceived, respectively, that soil erosion severity has been increased since the past 10-years. Perceptions of most frequently noted indicators of soil erosion were declined productivity, shallow soil depth, presence of rills, sheet erosion, soil loss from farmland, and change in soil color. Results of the binary logistic regression indicate that there is heterogeneity in the factors accounting for the perception of soil fertility. In developing promising soil management strategy in the study area, attention must be given to key socioeconomic, biophysical, farm and institutional factors.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Variation in soil properties under different cropping and other land-use systems in Dura catchment, Northern Ethiopia

There are limited reports about the impacts of long-term cropping and land-use systems (CLUS) on soil properties and nutrient stocks under smallholder farmers’ conditions in developing countries. The objective of this research was to examine variation in soil properties and OC and TN stocks across the different CLUS in Dura sub-catchment, northern Ethiopia. Surveys and discussions on field history were used to identify nine CLUS, namely, tef (Eragrostis tef (Zucc) Trot)) mono-cropping (TM), maize (Zea mays L.) mono-cropping (MM), cauliflower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis)-maize intercropping (IC1), red beet (Beta Vulgaris)-maize intercropping (IC2), cauliflower-tef-maize rotation (R1), onion (Allium cepa L.)-maize-onion rotation (R2), tr eated gully (TG), untreated gully (UTG), and natural forest system (NF). A total of 27 composite soil samples were randomly collected from the CLUS for soil analysis. Data were subjected to one-way analysis of variance and PCA. The lowest and highest bulk density was determined from NF (1.19 Mg m^-3) and UTG (1.77 Mg m^-3), respectively. Soil pH, EC and CEC varied significantly among the CLUS. The highest CEC (50.3 cmol_c kg^-1) was reported under TG followed by NF. The highest soil OC stock (175.3 Mg C ha⁻¹) and TN stock (13.6 Mg C ha⁻¹) were found from NF. The PCA chosen soil properties explained 87% of the soil quality variability among the CLUS. Such soil properties and nutrient stocks variability among the CLUS suggested that introduction of suitable management practices that sustain the soil system of the CLUS with poor soil properties and nutrient stocks are crucial for the study area conditions.

Current and future climatic regions favourable for a globally introduced wild carnivore, the raccoon Procyon lotor

Invasive species are considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity and represent a major challenge in the conservation of natural ecosystems, in preventing damage to agricultural production, and human health risks. Environmental Niche Modelling has emerged as a powerful tool to predict the patterns of range expansion of non-native species and to direct effective strategies for managing biological invasions. The raccoon, Procyon lotor, is a wild mesocarnivore presenting a high adaptability and showing successful introduced populations worldwide. Here, we modelled the current and future climatically favourable areas for the raccoon using two protocols, based on data sets filtrated in geographic and environmental spaces. Projections from these models show extensive current favourable geographical areas covering extensive regions of temperate biomes. Moreover, predictions for 2050 reveals extensive new favourable areas north of the current favourable regions. However, the results of the two modeling approaches differ in the extent of predicted favourable spaces. Protocols using geographically filtered data present more conservative forecasts, while protocol using environmental filtration presents forecasts across greater areas. Given the biological characteristics and the ecological requirements of a generalist carnivore such as the raccoon, the latter forecasts appears more relevant and should be privileged in the development of conservation plans for ecosystems.

Implications of climate change to the design of protected areas: The case study of small islands (Azores)

Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands.

Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands

Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land-use change

Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land-use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land-use change projections with the latest developments in network-connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land-use change simulations to explore robustness of species' habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land-use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat-quality criteria for protected-area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade-offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.

Herders’ ecological knowledge and carnivore predation on livestock investigations in Makgadikgadi and Nxai national parks, Botswana

Botswana is one of the countries in Southern Africa that pay compensation for human properties damaged by wildlife. Before compensation is paid, a thorough investigation on determining wildlife species that have caused the damage is mandatory. Because of insufficient resources by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks, the initial investigation is carried out by herders. Three basic indicators are used to determine carnivore predation; sighting the carnivore at the kill, tracks of the predator and examining the carcasses. In this study, we tested herders’ knowledge on the above three indicators. The study was conducted in a communal area around Makgadikgadi and Nxai national parks, Botswana, where the main activities practiced by the local communities is pastoral farming. In general, there was a significant association between reported and perceived incidents of predation for all carnivores at all distances from protected areas. Herders were able to identify the large carnivores visually. But they had difficulties in identifying carnivore tracks and kill characteristics. The results demonstrate the importance of involvement of local communities in human–wildlife conflict management. However, more education regarding identification of carnivore tracks and kill behaviour is needed for herders in the study area.Conservation implications: Based on the results of this study, this calls for a change in the management of human–wildlife conflict (HWC) and administration of the compensation scheme. Decentralising HWC to local communities using existing government structures that exist at local level will not only supplement the inadequate resources by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) to effectively mitigate the problem, but also empower local communities’ participation in wildlife management.

Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia

With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass-fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia

Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long-term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat-induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long-term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range - with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot-spells, in driving species-climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.

Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

Land use changes have profound effects on populations of Neotropical primates, and ongoing climate change is expected to aggravate this scenario. The titi monkeys from eastern Brazil (Callicebus personatus group) have been particularly affected by this process, with four of the five species now allocated to threatened conservation status categories. Here, we estimate the changes in the distribution of these titi monkeys caused by changes in both climate and land use. We also use demographic-based, functional landscape metrics to assess the magnitude of the change in landscape conditions for the distribution predicted for each species. We built species distribution models (SDMs) based on maximum entropy for current and future conditions (2070), allowing for different global circulation models and contrasting scenarios of glasshouse gas concentrations. We refined the SDMs using a high-resolution map of habitat remnants. We then calculated habitat availability and connectivity based on home-range size and the dispersal limitations of the individual, in the context of a predicted loss of 10% of forest cover in the future. The landscape configuration is predicted to be degraded for all species, regardless of the climatic settings. This include reductions in the total cover of forest remnants, patch size and functional connectivity. As the landscape configuration should deteriorate severely in the future for all species, the prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co-occurring species.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km²) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km² (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change

Conserving different spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity is considered necessary for maintaining ecosystem functions under predicted global change scenarios. Recent work has shifted the focus from spatially local (α-diversity) to macroecological scales (β- and γ-diversity), emphasizing links between macroecological biodiversity and ecosystem functions (MB-EF relationships). However, before the outcomes of MB-EF analyses can be useful to real-world decisions, empirical modeling needs to be developed for natural ecosystems, incorporating a broader range of data inputs, environmental change scenarios, underlying mechanisms, and predictions. We outline the key conceptual and technical challenges currently faced in developing such models and in testing and calibrating the relationships assumed in these models using data from real ecosystems. These challenges are explored in relation to two potential MB-EF mechanisms: "macroecological complementarity" and "spatiotemporal compensation." Several regions have been sufficiently well studied over space and time to robustly test these mechanisms by combining cutting-edge spatiotemporal methods with remotely sensed data, including plant community data sets in Australia, Europe, and North America. Assessing empirical MB-EF relationships at broad spatiotemporal scales will be crucial in ensuring these macroecological processes can be adequately considered in the management of biodiversity and ecosystem functions under global change.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.