Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: a study in 19 countries from different geographic locations

Sunlight: Time for a Rethink?

UVR is a skin carcinogen, yet no studies link sun exposure to increased all-cause mortality. Epidemiological studies from the United Kingdom and Sweden link sun exposure with reduced all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. Vitamin D synthesis is dependent on UVB exposure. Individuals with higher serum levels of vitamin D are healthier in many ways, yet multiple trials of oral vitamin D supplementation show little benefit. Growing evidence shows that sunlight has health benefits through vitamin D-independent pathways, such as photomobilization of nitric oxide from cutaneous stores with reduction in cardiovascular morbidity. Sunlight has important systemic health benefit as well as risks.

An organism-wide atlas of hormonal signaling based on the mouse lemur single-cell transcriptome

Hormones mediate long-range cell communication and play vital roles in physiology, metabolism, and health. Traditionally, endocrinologists have focused on one hormone or organ system at a time. Yet, hormone signaling by its very nature connects cells of different organs and involves crosstalk of different hormones. Here, we leverage the organism-wide single cell transcriptional atlas of a non-human primate, the mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), to systematically map source and target cells for 84 classes of hormones. This work uncovers previously-uncharacterized sites of hormone regulation, and shows that the hormonal signaling network is densely connected, decentralized, and rich in feedback loops. Evolutionary comparisons of hormonal genes and their expression patterns show that mouse lemur better models human hormonal signaling than mouse, at both the genomic and transcriptomic levels, and reveal primate-specific rewiring of hormone-producing/target cells. This work complements the scale and resolution of classical endocrine studies and sheds light on primate hormone regulation.

Seasonally adjusted laboratory reference intervals to improve the performance of machine learning models for classification of cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

Variation in laboratory healthcare data due to seasonal changes is a widely accepted phenomenon. Seasonal variation is generally not systematically accounted for in healthcare settings. This study applies a newly developed adjustment method for seasonal variation to analyze the effect seasonality has on machine learning model classification of diagnoses.

METHODS

Machine learning methods were trained and tested on ~ 22 million unique records from ~ 575,000 unique patients admitted to Danish hospitals. Four machine learning models (adaBoost, decision tree, neural net, and random forest) classifying 35 diseases of the circulatory system (ICD-10 diagnosis codes, chapter IX) were run before and after seasonal adjustment of 23 laboratory reference intervals (RIs). The effect of the adjustment was benchmarked via its contribution to machine learning models trained using hyperparameter optimization and assessed quantitatively using performance metrics (AUROC and AUPRC).

RESULTS

Seasonally adjusted RIs significantly improved cardiovascular disease classification in 24 of the 35 tested cases when using neural net models. Features with the highest average feature importance (via SHAP explainability) across all disease models were sex, C- reactive protein, and estimated glomerular filtration. Classification of diseases of the vessels, such as thrombotic diseases and other atherosclerotic diseases consistently improved after seasonal adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

As data volumes increase and data-driven methods are becoming more advanced, it is essential to improve data quality at the pre-processing level. This study presents a method that makes it feasible to introduce seasonally adjusted RIs into the clinical research space in any disease domain. Seasonally adjusted RIs generally improve diagnoses classification and thus, ought to be considered and adjusted for in clinical decision support methods.

The effects of education on mortality: Evidence using college expansions

This paper explores the long-run health benefits of education for longevity. Using mortality data from the Social Security Administration (1988-2005) linked to geographic locations in the 1940-census data, we exploit changes in college availability across cohorts in local areas. Our treatment on the treated calculations suggest increases in longevity between 1.3 and 2.7 years. Some further analyses suggest the results are not driven by pre-tends, endogenous migration, and other time-varying local confounders. This paper adds to the literature on the health and social benefits of education.

The Siren Song of Cicadas: Early-Life Pesticide Exposure and Later-Life Male Mortality

This paper studies the long-term effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to pesticide use on adulthood and old-age longevity. We use the cyclical emergence of cicadas in the eastern half of the United States as a shock that raises the pesticide use among tree crop growing farmlands. We implement a difference-in-difference framework and employ Social Security Administration death records over the years 1975-2005 linked to the complete count 1940 census. We find that males born in top-quartile tree-crop counties and exposed to a cicada event during fetal development and early-life live roughly 2.2 months shorted lives; those with direct farm exposure face a reduction of nearly a year. We provide empirical evidence to examine mortality selection before adulthood, endogenous fertility, and differential data linkage rates. Additional analyses suggests that reductions in education and income during adulthood are potential mechanisms of impact. Our findings add to our understanding of the relevance of early-life insults for old-age health and mortality.

Temperature fluctuation and acute myocardial infarction in Beijing: an extended analysis of temperature ranges and differences

Purpose

Few studies examined the relationship between temperature fluctuation metrics and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospitalizations within a single cohort. We aimed to expand knowledge on two basic measures: temperature range and difference.

Methods

We conducted a time-series analysis on the correlations between temperature range (TR), daily mean temperature differences (DTDmean), and daily mean-maximum/minimum temperature differences (TDmax/min) and AMI hospitalizations, using data between 2013 and 2016 in Beijing, China. The effects of TRn and DTDmeann over n-day intervals were compared, respectively. Subgroup analysis by age and sex was performed.

Results

A total of 81,029 AMI hospitalizations were included. TR1, TDmax, and TDmin were associated with AMI in J-shaped patterns. DTDmean1 was related to AMI in a U-shaped pattern. These correlations weakened for TR and DTDmean with longer exposure intervals. Extremely low (1st percentile) and high (5°C) DTDmean1 generated cumulative relative risk (CRR) of 2.73 (95% CI: 1.56-4.79) and 2.15 (95% CI: 1.54-3.01). Extremely high TR1, TDmax, and TDmin (99th percentile) correlated with CRR of 2.00 (95% CI: 1.73-2.85), 1.71 (95% CI: 1.40-2.09), and 2.73 (95% CI: 2.04-3.66), respectively. Those aged 20-64 had higher risks with large TR1, TDmax, and TDmin, while older individuals were more affected by negative DTDmean1. DTDmean1 was associated with a higher AMI risk in females.

Conclusion

Temperature fluctuations were linked to increased AMI hospitalizations, with low-temperature extremes having a more pronounced effect. Females and the older adult were more susceptible to daily mean temperature variations, while younger individuals were more affected by larger temperature ranges.

Season of delivery and risk of venous thromboembolism during hospitalization among pregnant women

Background

Seasons were found to be related to the occurrences of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients. No previous study has explored whether seasons were associated with VTE risk in pregnant women. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between the season of delivery and VTE risk during hospitalization among pregnant women.

Methods

This is a multi-center retrospective cohort study of pregnant women. Participants were those who delivered at seven designated sites in Hubei Province, China, during the period from January 2017 to December 2022. They were categorized according to their season/month of delivery. Information on new-onset VTE during hospitalization was followed.

Results

Approximately 0.28% (104/37,778) of the pregnant women developed new-onset VTE during hospitalization for delivery. After adjustment, compared with participants in the spring group, participants in the summer, autumn, and winter groups had an increased risk of VTE during hospitalization. The ORs were 2.59 [1.30, 5.15], 2.83 [1.43, 5.60], and 2.35 [1.17, 4.75] for the summer, autumn, and winter groups, respectively. Pregnant women in the combined group (summer + autumn + winter) had an increased risk of VTE during hospitalization than those in the spring group (OR, 2.59 [1.39, 4.85]). By restricting the analyses among pregnant women without in vitro fertilization, gestational diabetes mellitus, and preterm, the results still remained robust. Compared with participants who delivered in March, April, and May, participants who delivered in June, July, September, November, December, and February had a higher risk of VTE during hospitalization.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that pregnant women who delivered in summer, autumn, and winter had an increased VTE risk during hospitalization compared with those who delivered in spring.

Cardiorenal multimorbidity in hospitalized cardiology patients: The Hellenic Cardiorenal Morbidity Snapshot (HECMOS) study

PURPOSE

Cardiovascular disease is commonly accompanied by renal dysfunction. Multimorbidity in hospitalized patients impacts unfavorably on prognosis and hospital stay. We aimed to illustrate the contemporary burden of cardiorenal morbidity across inpatient cardiology care in Greece.

METHODS

The Hellenic Cardiorenal Morbidity Snapshot (HECMOS) used an electronic platform to collect demographic and clinically relevant information about all patients hospitalized on March 3, 2022, in Greece. The participating institutions covered all levels of inpatient cardiology care and most of the country's territories to collect a real-world, nation representative sample.

RESULTS

A total of 923 patients (men 68.4%, median age 73 ± 14.8 years) were admitted to 55 different cardiology departments. 57.7% of the participants were aged >70 years. Hypertension was highly prevalent and present in 66% of the cases. History of chronic HF, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, and chronic kidney disease was present in 38%, 31.8%, 30%, and 26%, respectively. Furthermore, 64.1% of the sample exhibited at least one of these 4 entities. Accordingly, a combination of ≥2 of these morbid conditions was recorded in 38.7%, of ≥3 in 18.2%, whereas 4.3% of the sample combined all 4 in their medical history. The most common combination was the coexistence of heart failure-atrial fibrillation accounting for 20.6% of the sample. Nine of 10 nonelectively admitted patients were hospitalized due to acute HF (39.9%), acute coronary syndrome (33.5%), or tachyarrhythmias (13.2%).

CONCLUSION

HECMOS participants carried a remarkable burden of cardio-reno-metabolic disease. HF in conjunction with atrial fibrillation was found to be the most prevalent combination among the studied cardiorenal nexus of morbidities in the whole study population.

Long-run intergenerational health benefits of women empowerment: Evidence from suffrage movements in the US

An ongoing body of research documents that women empowerment is associated with improved outcomes for children. However, little is known about the long-run effects on health outcomes. This paper adds to this literature and studies the association between maternal exposure to suffrage reforms and children's old-age longevity. We utilize changes in suffrage laws across US states and over time as a source of incentivizing maternal investment in children's health and education. Using the universe of death records in the US over the years 1979-2020 and implementing a difference-in-difference econometric framework, we find that cohorts exposed to suffrage throughout their childhood live 0.6 years longer than unexposed cohorts. Furthermore, we show that these effects are not driven by preexisting trends in longevity, endogenous migration, selective fertility, and changes in the demographic composition of the sample. Additional analysis reveals that improvements in education and income are candidate mechanisms. Moreover, we find substantial improvements in early-adulthood socioeconomic standing, height, and height-for-age outcomes due to childhood exposure to suffrage movements. A series of state-level analyses suggest reductions in infant and child mortality following suffrage law change. We also find evidence that counties in states that passed the law experienced new openings of County Health Departments and increases in physicians per capita.

Relative Risk of Death in Bulgarian Cancer Patients during the Initial Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to millions of documented deaths worldwide, with diverse distribution among countries. Surprisingly, Bulgaria, a middle-income European Union member state, ranked highest in COVID-19 mortality. This study aims to assess whether Bulgarian cancer patients experienced a higher relative risk (RR) of death compared to the general Bulgarian population during the pandemic.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the Bulgarian National Statistical Institute and the Bulgarian National Cancer Registry were analyzed to estimate monthly RR of death in cancer patients compared to the general population before and during the first two years of the pandemic. The impact of the COVID-19 waves and predominant SARS-CoV-2 variants on RR was evaluated on various cancer types and age groups using a multiple linear regression approach.

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 waves, both the general population and cancer patients experienced a significant increase in mortality rates. Surprisingly, the RR of death in cancer patients was lower during pandemic waves. The results from the statistical modeling revealed a significant association between the COVID-19 waves and reduced RR for all cancer patients. Notably, the effect was more pronounced during waves associated with the Alpha and Delta variants. The results also showed varying impacts of the COVID-19 waves on RR when we analyzed subsamples of data grouped depending on the cancer type, age and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite increased overall mortality in Bulgarian cancer patients during the pandemic, the RR of death was lower compared to the Bulgarian general population, indicating that protective measures were relatively effective in this vulnerable group. This study underscores the importance of implementing and encouraging preventive measures, especially in cancer patients, to mitigate the impact of future viral pandemics and reduce excess mortality.

Brain Dopamine-Clock Interactions Regulate Cardiometabolic Physiology: Mechanisms of the Observed Cardioprotective Effects of Circadian-Timed Bromocriptine-QR Therapy in Type 2 Diabetes Subjects

Despite enormous global efforts within clinical research and medical practice to reduce cardiovascular disease(s) (CVD), it still remains the leading cause of death worldwide. While genetic factors clearly contribute to CVD etiology, the preponderance of epidemiological data indicate that a major common denominator among diverse ethnic populations from around the world contributing to CVD is the composite of Western lifestyle cofactors, particularly Western diets (high saturated fat/simple sugar [particularly high fructose and sucrose and to a lesser extent glucose] diets), psychosocial stress, depression, and altered sleep/wake architecture. Such Western lifestyle cofactors are potent drivers for the increased risk of metabolic syndrome and its attendant downstream CVD. The central nervous system (CNS) evolved to respond to and anticipate changes in the external (and internal) environment to adapt survival mechanisms to perceived stresses (challenges to normal biological function), including the aforementioned Western lifestyle cofactors. Within the CNS of vertebrates in the wild, the biological clock circuitry surveils the environment and has evolved mechanisms for the induction of the obese, insulin-resistant state as a survival mechanism against an anticipated ensuing season of low/no food availability. The peripheral tissues utilize fat as an energy source under muscle insulin resistance, while increased hepatic insulin resistance more readily supplies glucose to the brain. This neural clock function also orchestrates the reversal of the obese, insulin-resistant condition when the low food availability season ends. The circadian neural network that produces these seasonal shifts in metabolism is also responsive to Western lifestyle stressors that drive the CNS clock into survival mode. A major component of this natural or Western lifestyle stressor-induced CNS clock neurophysiological shift potentiating the obese, insulin-resistant state is a diminution of the circadian peak of dopaminergic input activity to the pacemaker clock center, suprachiasmatic nucleus. Pharmacologically preventing this loss of circadian peak dopaminergic activity both prevents and reverses existing metabolic syndrome in a wide variety of animal models of the disorder, including high fat-fed animals. Clinically, across a variety of different study designs, circadian-timed bromocriptine-QR (quick release) (a unique formulation of micronized bromocriptine-a dopamine D2 receptor agonist) therapy of type 2 diabetes subjects improved hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, immune sterile inflammation, and/or adverse cardiovascular event rate. The present review details the seminal circadian science investigations delineating important roles for CNS circadian peak dopaminergic activity in the regulation of peripheral fuel metabolism and cardiovascular biology and also summarizes the clinical study findings of bromocriptine-QR therapy on cardiometabolic outcomes in type 2 diabetes subjects.

Seasonal variation in blood pressure: what is still missing?

Seasonal variation of blood pressure (BP) is a topic in cardiology that has gained more attention throughout the years. Although it is extensively documented that BP increases in seasons coupled with lower temperatures, there are still many gaps in this knowledge field that need to be explored. Notably, seasonal variation of BP phenotypes, such as masked and white coat hypertension, and the impact of air pollution, latitude, and altitude on seasonal variation of BP are still poorly described in the literature, and the levels of the existing evidence are low. Therefore, further investigations on these topics are needed to provide robust evidence that can be used in clinical practice.

Population-wide analysis of hospital laboratory tests to assess seasonal variation and temporal reference interval modification

We identified mortality-, age-, and sex-associated differences in relation to reference intervals (RIs) for laboratory tests in population-wide data from nearly 2 million hospital patients in Denmark and comprising more than 300 million measurements. A low-parameter mathematical wave-based modification method was developed to adjust for dietary and environment influences during the year. The resulting mathematical fit allowed for improved association rates between re-classified abnormal laboratory tests, patient diagnoses, and mortality. The study highlights the need for seasonally modified RIs and presents an approach that has the potential to reduce over- and underdiagnosis, affecting both physician-patient interactions and electronic health record research as a whole.

Calendar month variation in the diagnosis and severity of pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is the third-leading cause of cardiovascular death in the United States, and several studies suggest PE shows seasonal variation. Variation in monthly PE diagnosis may be due to pathophysiologic factors or confounding/bias. However, severe PE may be less prone to diagnostic bias. To address this gap, we analyzed two registries from 1/2013-12/2018 with the aim of describing temporal trends in PE diagnosis and severity.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of two existing databases containing: (1) consecutive patients diagnosed with PE in the emergency departments (EDs) of two large, urban teaching hospitals, and (2) severe PEs requiring PE Response Team (PERT) activation at one of the above hospitals. The primary outcome was to assess variation in PE diagnosis and severity by calendar month. Separate analysis of these two databases sought to control for workup bias by trainee experience across the academic year. One-way ANOVA and Poisson regression were performed to assess for cyclical variation across calendar months, using Stata v16.1.

RESULTS

The PE diagnosis database contained 1324 patients over 36 months. One-way ANOVA did not reveal a statistically significant (p = 0.713) association between calendar month and PE number. The PERT activation database contained 1082 patients over 72 months. One-way ANOVA revealed a statistically significant (p = 0.024) association between calendar month and activations, repeated year-on-year.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate correlation between calendar month and PERT activation; however, this pattern was not observed for PE diagnoses. This finding warrants further investigation into the causes of calendar month variation of PERT activations.

Ability to adapt to seasonal temperature extremes among atrial fibrillation patients. A nation-wide study of hospitalizations in Israel

BACKGROUND

In recent years, temperature fluctuations and adverse weather events have become major concerns, influencing overall mortality and morbidity. While the association between extreme temperatures and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been supported by research, there is limited evidence on the ability of AF patients to adapt to the changing temperatures. We explored this question among AF patients in Israel featured by extreme temperature conditions.

METHODS

We examined the association between exposure to extreme temperatures and hospitalizations related to AF in a nationwide cohort in Israel. A case-crossover design with a distributed nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess possible effects of temperature fluctuations during each season. We considered the 7 days prior to the event as the possible window period.

RESULTS

During 2004-2018 we recorded a total of 54,909 hospitalizations for AF. Low temperatures in winter and high in summer adversely affected AF-related hospitalizations. The effect recorded for the first few weeks of each season was of higher magnitude and decreased or faded off completely as the seasons progressed (OR in winter: from 1.14, 95%CI 0.98, 1.32 to 0.90, 95%CI: 0.77, 1.06;OR in summer: from 1.95, 95%CI: 1.51, 2.52 to 1.22, 95%CI: 0.90, 1.65). Patients living in the south region and patients with low socioeconomic status were more susceptible to extreme temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

Although extreme hot and cold temperatures are associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for AF, the patients are likely to adapt to temperature change over the course of the first weeks of the season.

Joint statement for assessing and managing high blood pressure in children and adolescents: Chapter 2. How to manage high blood pressure in children and adolescents

The joint statement is a synergistic action between HyperChildNET and the European Academy of Pediatrics about the diagnosis and management of hypertension in youth, based on the European Society of Hypertension Guidelines published in 2016 with the aim to improve its implementation. Arterial hypertension is not only the most important risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, but also the most important modifiable risk factor. Early hypertension-mediated organ damage may already occur in childhood. The duration of existing hypertension plays an important role in risk assessment, and structural and functional organ changes may still be reversible or postponed with timely treatment. Therefore, appropriate therapy should be initiated in children as soon as the diagnosis of arterial hypertension has been confirmed and the risk factors for hypertension-mediated organ damage have been thoroughly evaluated. Lifestyle measures should be recommended in all hypertensive children and adolescents, including a healthy diet, regular exercise, and weight loss, if appropriate. If lifestyle changes in patients with primary hypertension do not result in normalization of blood pressure within six to twelve months or if secondary or symptomatic hypertension or hypertension-mediated organ damage is already present, pharmacologic therapy is required. Regular follow-up to assess blood pressure control and hypertension-mediated organ damage and to evaluate adherence and side effects of pharmacologic treatment is required. Timely multidisciplinary evaluation is recommended after the first suspicion of hypertension. A grading system of the clinical evidence is included.

Seasonality of Deaths Due to Heart Diseases among Cancer Patients

Background and Objectives: Cancer patients are at increased short- and long-term risk of cardiac toxicity and mortality. It is well-known that cardiac morbidity and mortality follows a seasonal pattern. Here we address the question of whether heart disease-related fatalities among cancer patients also follow a seasonal pattern. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of seasonality of deaths due to heart diseases (n = 503,243) in patients with newly diagnosed cancer reported during the period from 1975 to 2016 in the US's largest cancer registry-the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Seasonality was assessed through a classical cosinor model assuming a single annual peak. Results: We identified a significant seasonal peak in the first half of November. A peak with identical features was for all subgroups of patients defined based on demographic characteristics. This was also the case when analysis was performed on subgroups defined by the type of malignancy. Only patients with acute leukemias, pancreatic cancer and nervous system malignancies did not have a seasonal pattern in heart disease-related fatalities. Conclusion: the rate of heart disease-related fatalities after cancer diagnosis follows a seasonal pattern similar to that observed for the general population, albeit with an earlier peak in November. This suggests that close monitoring of the cardiovascular system in cancer survivors must be particularly active from late autumn and during the entire winter period.

Comparing the Evidence from Observational Studies and Randomized Controlled Trials for Nonskeletal Health Effects of Vitamin D

Although observational studies of health outcomes generally suggest beneficial effects with, or following, higher serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have generally not supported those findings. Here we review results from observational studies and RCTs regarding how vitamin D status affects several nonskeletal health outcomes, including Alzheimer’s disease and dementia, autoimmune diseases, cancers, cardiovascular disease, COVID-19, major depressive disorder, type 2 diabetes, arterial hypertension, all-cause mortality, respiratory tract infections, and pregnancy outcomes. We also consider relevant findings from ecological, Mendelian randomization, and mechanistic studies. Although clear discrepancies exist between findings of observational studies and RCTs on vitamin D and human health benefits these findings should be interpreted cautiously. Bias and confounding are seen in observational studies and vitamin D RCTs have several limitations, largely due to being designed like RCTs of therapeutic drugs, thereby neglecting vitamin D’s being a nutrient with a unique metabolism that requires specific consideration in trial design. Thus, RCTs of vitamin D can fail for several reasons: few participants’ having low baseline 25(OH)D concentrations, relatively small vitamin D doses, participants’ having other sources of vitamin D, and results being analyzed without consideration of achieved 25(OH)D concentrations. Vitamin D status and its relevance for health outcomes can usefully be examined using Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system from results of observational and other types of studies before further RCTs are considered and those findings would be useful in developing medical and public health policy, as they were for nonsmoking policies. A promising approach for future RCT design is adjustable vitamin D supplementation based on interval serum 25(OH)D concentrations to achieve target 25(OH)D levels suggested by findings from observational studies.

Seasonal variation of vasopressin and its relevance for the winter peak of cardiometabolic disease: A pooled analysis of five cohorts

BACKGROUND

Vasopressin concentration is typically higher at night, during stress, and in males, but readily lowered by water intake. Vasopressin is also a causal candidate for cardiometabolic disease, which shows seasonal variation.

OBJECTIVE

To study whether vasopressin concentration varies by season in a temperate climate.

METHODS

The vasopressin surrogate marker copeptin was analyzed in fasting plasma samples from five population-based cohorts in Malmö, Sweden (n = 25,907, 50.4% women, age 18-86 years). We investigated seasonal variation of copeptin concentration and adjusted for confounders in sinusoidal models.

RESULTS

The predicted median copeptin level was 5.81 pmol/L (7.18 pmol/L for men and 4.44 pmol/L for women). Copeptin exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern with a peak in winter (mid-February to mid-March) and nadir in late summer (mid-August to mid-September). The adjusted absolute seasonal variation in median copeptin was 0.62 pmol/L (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50; 0.74, 0.98 pmol/L [95% CI 0.73; 1.23] for men and 0.46 pmol/L [95% CI 0.33; 0.59] for women). The adjusted relative seasonal variation in mean log copeptin z-score was 0.20 (95% CI 0.17; 0.24, 0.18 [95% CI 0.14; 0.23] in men and 0.24 [95% CI 0.19; 0.29] in women). The observed seasonal variation of copeptin corresponded to a risk increase of 4% for incident diabetes mellitus and 2% for incident coronary artery disease.

CONCLUSION

The seasonal variation of the vasopressin marker copeptin corresponds to increased disease risk and mirrors the known variation in cardiometabolic status across the year. Moderately increased water intake might mitigate the winter peak of cardiometabolic disease.

An Exploration of How Solar Radiation Affects the Seasonal Variation of Human Mortality Rates and the Seasonal Variation in Some Other Common Disorders

Many diseases have large seasonal variations in which winter overall mortality rates are about 25% higher than in summer in mid-latitude countries, with cardiovascular diseases and respiratory infections and conditions accounting for most of the variation. Cancers, by contrast, do not usually have pronounced seasonal variations in incidence or mortality rates. This narrative review examines the epidemiological evidence for seasonal variations in blood pressure, cardiovascular disease rates and respiratory viral infections in relation to atmospheric temperature and humidity, and solar UV exposure through vitamin D production and increased blood concentrations of nitric oxide. However, additional mechanisms most likely exist by which solar radiation reduces the risk of seasonally varying diseases. Some studies have been reported with respect to temperature without considering solar UV doses, although studies regarding solar UV doses, such as for respiratory infections, often consider whether temperature can affect the findings. More research is indicated to evaluate the relative effects of temperature and sun exposure on the seasonality of mortality rates for several diseases. Since solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) doses decrease to vanishingly small values at higher latitudes in winter, the use of safe UVB lamps for indoor use in winter may warrant consideration.

Ambient temperature and infarct size, microvascular obstruction, left ventricular function and clinical outcomes after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVES

Incidence and prognosis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) vary according to ambient temperature and season. We sought to assess whether season and temperature on the day of STEMI are associated with infarct size, microvascular obstruction (MVO), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and clinical outcomes after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

Individual patient data from 1598 patients undergoing primary PCI in six randomized clinical trials were pooled. Infarct size was evaluated by cardiac magnetic resonance within 30 days in all trials. Patients were categorized either by whether they presented on a day of temperature extremes (minimum temperature <0 °C or maximum temperature >25 °C) or according to season.

RESULTS

A total of 558/1598 (34.9%) patients presented with STEMI on a day of temperature extremes, and 395 (24.7%), 374 (23.4%), 481 (30.1%) and 348 (21.8%) presented in the spring, summer, fall and winter. After multivariable adjustment, temperature extremes were independently associated with larger infarct size (adjusted difference 2.8%; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3; P < 0.001) and smaller LVEF (adjusted difference -2.3%; 95% CI, -3.5 to -1.1; P = 0.0002) but not with MVO (adjusted P = 0.12). In contrast, infarct size, MVO and LVEF were unrelated to season (adjusted P = 0.67; P = 0.36 and P = 0.95, respectively). Neither temperature extremes nor season were independently associated with 1-year risk of death or heart failure hospitalization (adjusted P = 0.79 and P = 0.90, respectively).

CONCLUSION

STEMI presentation during temperature extremes was independently associated with larger infarct size and lower LVEF but not with MVO after primary PCI, whereas season was unrelated to infarct severity.

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

BACKGROUND

Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature.

METHODS

We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on location-specific characteristics from 719 locations in tropical, dry, temperate and continental climate zones. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate the amplitude of seasonal variation in mortality on a daily basis, defined as the peak-to-trough ratio (PTR) of maximum mortality estimates to minimum mortality estimates at day of year. Meta-analysis was used to summarize location-specific estimates for each climate zone. We estimated the PTR with and without temperature adjustment, with the differences representing the seasonal effect attributable to temperature. We also evaluated the effect of location-specific characteristics on the PTR across locations by using meta-regression models.

RESULTS

Seasonality estimates and responses to temperature adjustment varied across locations. The unadjusted PTR for all-cause mortality was 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.11] in the tropical zone and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.20-1.25) in the temperate zone; adjusting for temperature reduced the estimates to 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.12), respectively. Furthermore, the unadjusted PTR was positively associated with average mean temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that seasonality of mortality is importantly driven by temperature, most evidently in temperate/continental climate zones, and that warmer locations show stronger seasonal variations in mortality, which is related to a stronger effect of temperature.

Seasonality in surgical outcome data: a systematic review and narrative synthesis

BACKGROUND

Seasonal trends in patient outcomes are an under-researched area in perioperative care. This systematic review evaluates the published literature on seasonal variation in surgical outcomes worldwide.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, CINHAL, and Web of Science were searched for studies on major surgical procedures, examining mortality or other patient-relevant outcomes, across seasonal periods up to February 2019. Major surgery was defined as a procedure requiring an overnight stay in an inpatient medical facility. We included studies exploring variation according to calendar and meteorological seasons and recurring annual events including staff turnover. Quality was assessed using an adapted Downs and Black scoring system.

RESULTS

The literature search identified 82 studies, including 22 210 299 patients from four continents. Because of the heterogeneity of reported outcomes and literature scope, a narrative synthesis was undertaken. Mass staff changeover was investigated in 37 studies; the majority (22) of these did not show strong evidence of worse outcomes. Of the 47 studies that examined outcomes across meteorological or calendar seasons, 33 found evidence of seasonal variation. Outcomes were often worse in winter (16 studies). This trend was particularly prominent amongst surgical procedures classed as an 'emergency' (five of nine studies). There was evidence for increased postoperative surgical site infections during summer (seven of 12 studies examining this concept).

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provides tentative evidence for an increased risk of postoperative surgical site infections in summer, and an increased risk of worse outcomes after emergency surgery in winter and during staff changeover times.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019137214.

Weather Trumps Festivity? More Cardiovascular Disease Events Occur in Winter than in December Holidays in Queensland, Australia

Objective: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of hospitalisations and deaths in Australia. This study estimates the excess CVD hospitalisations and deaths across seasons and during the December holidays in Queensland, Australia. Methods: The study uses retrospective, longitudinal, population-based cohort data from Queensland, Australia from January 2010 to December 2015. The outcomes were hospitalisations and deaths categorised as CVD-related. CVD events were grouped according to when they occurred in the calendar year. Excess hospitalisations and deaths were estimated using the multivariate ordinary least squares method after adjusting for confounding effects. Results: More CVD hospitalisations and deaths occurred in winter than in summer, with 7811 (CI: 1353, 14,270; p < 0.01) excess hospitalisations and 774 (CI: 35, 1513; p < 0.01) deaths compared to summer. During the coldest month (July), there was an excess of 42 hospitalisations and 7 deaths per 1000 patients. Fewer CVD hospitalisations (-20 (CI: -29, -9; p < 0.01)) occurred during the December holidays than any other period during the calendar year. Non-CVD events were mostly not statistically significant different between periods. Conclusion: Most CVD events in Queensland occurred in winter rather than during the December holidays. Potentially cost-effective initiatives should be explored such as encouraging patients with CVD conditions to wear warmer clothes during cold temperatures and/or insulating the homes of CVD patients who cannot otherwise afford to.

Seasonal variation of blood pressure in children

Seasonal blood pressure (BP) variation is mostly found between the summer and winter months. Guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of hypertension in children have not considered this variation until recently. This review aims to present an overview of seasonal BP variation in childhood along with potential underlying pathophysiological mechanisms and long-term implications as well as conclusions for future studies. In pediatric cohorts, seven studies investigated seasonal changes in BP. These changes amount to 3.4-5.9 mmHg (or 0.5-1.5 mmHg per - 1 °C difference in environmental temperature) in systolic BP with a peak in fall or winter. Potential mechanisms and mediators of seasonal BP variation include sympathetic activation of the nervous system with an increase of urinary and plasma norepinephrine levels in the winter season. Additionally, the physical activity among children and adolescents was inversely correlated with BP levels. Temperature sensitivity of BP and pediatric BP levels predict future systolic BP and target-organ damage. Therefore, cardiovascular events may even be long-term complications of seasonal BP variation in pediatric hypertensive patients. Overall, these data strongly suggest an important effect of ambient temperature on BP in children. Additional studies in pediatric cohorts are needed to define how best to incorporate such variation into clinical practice.

Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics.

DESIGN

We conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations.

SETTING

47 prefectures in Japan PARTICIPANTS: Deaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude).

RESULTS

The nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.

Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

BACKGROUND

Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.

METHODS

Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.

RESULTS

The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

Cardiovascular-related deaths at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak: a prospective analysis based on the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on cardiovascular disease (CVD) related mortality and hospitalisation.

DESIGN

Community-based prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The UK Biobank.

PARTICIPANTS

421 372 UK Biobank participants who were registered in England and alive as of 1 January 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome of interest was CVD-related death, which was defined as death with CVD as a cause in the death register. We retrieved information on hospitalisations with CVD as the primary diagnosis from the UK Biobank hospital inpatient data. The study period was 1 January 2020 to June 30 2020, and we used the same calendar period of the three preceding years as the reference period. In order to control for seasonal variations and ageing of the study population, standardised mortality/incidence ratios (SMRs/SIRs) with 95% CIs were used to estimate the relative risk of CVD outcomes during the study period, compared with the reference period.

RESULTS

We observed a distinct increase in CVD-related deaths in March and April 2020, compared with the corresponding months of the three preceding years. The observed number of CVD-related deaths (n=218) was almost double in April, compared with the expected number (n=120) (SMR=1.82, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.07). In addition, we observed a significant decline in CVD-related hospitalisations from March onwards, with the lowest SIR observed in April (0.45, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.49).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a distinct increase in the number of CVD-related deaths in the UK Biobank population at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. The shortage of medical resources for hospital care and stress reactions to the pandemic might have partially contributed to the excess CVD-related mortality, underscoring the need of sufficient healthcare resources and improved instructions to the public about seeking healthcare in a timely way.

Seasonal variation in estimated cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Seasonal variations in several risk factors for cardiovascular events (CVD) were described. Here, we evaluate the impact of seasonal variations in blood pressure (BP), lipid profile and glycemic control on estimated CVD risk in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Retrospective monocentric study of patients with T2D who were visited at least once in the winter period and once in the summer period, less than 8 months apart, for which data related to systolic (S) BP, diastolic (D) BP, body mass index, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and smoking habit were available on both occasions. The 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the UKPDS risk engine and the ASCVD risk estimator. As many as 411 patients were included in the study. Significant within-patient differences between summer and winter were found for the absolute risk of events assessed with both calculators (Δs-w UKPDS-CHD: -1.33%, Δs-w UKPDS-Stroke: -0.84%, Δs-w ASCVD: -2.21%). The seasonal change in SBP was the main responsible for the change in risk estimated with both the UKPDS-Stroke (r² = 0.43) and the ASCVD (r² = 0.50) scores, while the change in total cholesterol was the main determinant of the change in risk for the UKPDS-CHD (r² = 0.34). A significant correlation was identified between changes in temperature and changes in SBP (ρ = 0.130, p = 0.008), but not in other risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal variations in the classic CVD risk factors influence the risk estimated using validated calculators.

Global Dieting Trends and Seasonality: Social Big-Data Analysis May Be a Useful Tool

We explored online search interest in dieting and weight loss using big-data analysis with a view to its potential utility in global obesity prevention efforts. We applied big-data analysis to the global dieting trends collected from Google and Naver search engines from January 2004 to January 2018 using the search term “diet,” in selected six Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries; five Arab and Muslim countries grouped as conservative, semi-conservative, and liberal; and South Korea. Using cosinor analysis to evaluate the periodic flow of time series data, there was seasonality for global search interest in dieting and weight loss (amplitude = 6.94, CI = 5.33~8.56, p < 0.000) with highest in January and the lowest in December for both Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries. Seasonal dieting trend in the Arab and Muslim countries was present, but less remarkable (monthly seasonal seasonality, amplitude = 4.07, CI = 2.20~5.95, p < 0.000). For South Korea, seasonality was noted on Naver (amplitude = 11.84, CI = 7.62~16.05, p < 0.000). Our findings suggest that big-data analysis of social media can be an adjunct in tackling important public health issues like dieting, weight loss, obesity, and food fads, including the optimal timing of interventions.

Excess mortality at Christmas due to cardiovascular disease in the HUNT study prospective population-based cohort in Norway

Background

Although it is known that winter inclusive of the Christmas holiday period is associated with an increased risk of dying compared to other times of the year, very few studies have specifically examined this phenomenon within a population cohort subject to baseline profiling and prospective follow-up. In such a cohort, we sought to determine the specific characteristics of mortality occuring during the Christmas holidays.

Methods

Baseline profiling and outcome data were derived from a prospective population-based cohort with longitudinal follow-up in Central Norway - the Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study. From 1984 to 1986, 88% of the target population comprising 39,273 men and 40,353 women aged 48 ± 18 and 50 ± 18 years, respectively, were profiled. We examined the long-term pattern of mortality to determine the number of excess (all-cause and cause-specific) deaths that occurred during winter overall and, more specifically, the Christmas holidays.

Results

During 33.5 (IQR 17.1–34.4) years follow-up, 19,879 (50.7%) men and 19,316 (49.3%) women died at age-adjusted rate of 5.3 and 4.6 deaths per 1000/annum, respectively. Overall, 1540 (95% CI 43–45 deaths/season) more all-cause deaths occurred in winter (December to February) versus summer (June to August), with 735 (95% CI 20–22 deaths per season) of these cardiovascular-related. December 25th–27th was the deadliest 3-day period of the year; being associated with 138 (95% CI 96–147) and 102 (95% CI 72–132) excess all-cause and cardiovascular-related deaths, respectively. Accordingly, compared to 1st–21st December (equivalent winter conditions), the incidence rate ratio of all-cause mortality increased to 1.22 (95% CI 1.16–1.27) and 1.17 (95% 1.11–1.22) in men and women, respectively, during the next 21 days (Christmas/New Year holidays). All observed differences were highly significant (P < 0.001). A less pronounced pattern of mortality due to respiratory illnesses (but not cancer) was also observed.

Conclusion

Beyond a broader pattern of seasonally-linked mortality characterised by excess winter deaths, the deadliest time of year in Central Norway coincides with the Christmas holidays. During this time, the pattern and frequency of cardiovascular-related mortality changes markedly; contrasting with a more stable pattern of cancer-related mortality. Pending confirmation in other populations and climates, further research to determine if these excess deaths are preventable is warranted.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10503-7.

Temporal patterns of suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality are inversely correlated in several countries

BACKGROUND

Nearly 800,000 suicides occur worldwide annually and suicide rates are increasing faster than population growth. Unfortunately, the pathophysiology of suicide remains poorly understood, which has hindered suicide prevention efforts. However, mechanistic clues may be found by studying effects of seasonality on suicide and other mortality causes. Suicides tend to peak in spring-summer periods and nadir in fall-winter periods while circulatory system disease-related mortality tends to exhibit the opposite temporal trends. This study aimed to determine for the first time whether monthly temporal cross-correlations exist between suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality at the population level. If so and if common biological factors moderate risks for both mortality types, such factors may be discoverable and utilized to improve suicide prevention.

METHODS

We conducted time series analyses of monthly mortality data from northern (England and Wales, South Korea, United States) and southern (Australia, Brazil) hemisphere countries during the period 2009-2018 (N = 41.8 million all-cause mortality cases). We used a Poisson regression variant of the standard cosinor model to determine peak months of mortality. We also estimated cross-correlations between monthly mortality counts from suicide and from circulatory system diseases.

RESULTS

Suicide and circulatory disease-related mortality temporal patterns were negatively correlated in Australia (- 0.32), Brazil (- 0.57), South Korea (- 0.32), and in the United States (- 0.66), but no temporal correlation was discernable in England and Wales.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative temporal cross-correlations between these mortality types we found in 4 of 5 countries studied suggest that seasonal factors broadly and inversely moderate risks for circulatory disease-related mortality and suicide, but not in all regions, indicating that the effect is not uniform. Since the seasonal factors of temperature and light exert opposite effects on suicide and circulatory disease-related mortality in several countries, we propose that physiologically-adaptive circulatory system responses to heat and light may increase risk for suicide and should be studied to determine whether they affect suicide risk. For example, heat and light increase production and release of the bioactive gas nitric oxide and reduce circulatory system disease by relaxing blood vessel tone, while elevated nitric oxide levels are associated with suicidal behavior, inverse effects that parallel the inverse temporal mortality patterns we detected.

Basic Aspects of Seasonal Cardiovascular Mortality

The review demonstrates the main aspects of seasonal cardiovascular mortality. Climatic factors, including seasonal weather changes, have a significant impact on the biosphere. People are also characterized by the seasonal dynamics of the activity of many organs and systems, biochemical parameters, and mortality. Cardiovascular mortality is also characterized by seasonal fluctuations: in winter it is maximum, in summer it is minimal. The same patterns are characteristic of mortality from cardiovascular diseases (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiac arrhythmias, etc.). The article presents the basic patterns of seasonal cardiovascular mortality in various climatic zones, the cardiovascular mortality of countries located in the equatorial and subequatorial climatic region. In addition, the mortality displacement phenomenon, the paradox of winter mortality. The main trends in changes in cardiovascular mortality over a long period of time are demonstrated. The paper discusses some of the mechanisms that underlie the dynamics of cardiovascular mortality during the year: seasonal fluctuations in the level of vitamin D, lipids in the blood plasma, changes in hemodynamic parameters, the effects of microbial and viral infections in the cold season, etc. In addition, data on seasonal the dynamics of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases is considered: an increase in body weight, a physical activity decrease, a change in the nutrition structure in the winter, the seasonal dynamics of depression, anxiety, hostility, the relationship of seasonal cardiovascular mortality with socio-economic, demographic and other factors. In conclusion, the main ways of development and prevention of seasonal CV cardiovascular mortality M, taking into account modern technologies at the international level, for state health departments, for specific patients, are demonstrated.

Lopsided Blood-Thinning Drug Increases the Risk of Internal Flow Choking Leading to Shock Wave Generation Causing Asymptomatic Cardiovascular Disease

The discovery of Sanal flow choking in the cardiovascular-system calls for multidisciplinary and global action to develop innovative treatments and to develop new drugs to negate the risk of asymptomatic-cardiovascular-diseases. Herein, it is shown that when blood-pressure-ratio (BPR) reaches the lower-critical-hemorrhage-index (LCHI) internal-flow-choking and shock wave generation can occur in the cardiovascular-system, with sudden expansion/divergence/vasospasm or bifurcation regions, without prejudice to the percutaneous-coronary-intervention (PCI). Analytical findings reveal that the relatively high and the low blood-viscosity are cardiovascular-risk factors. In vitro studies have shown that nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide gases are dominant in fresh blood samples of humans/guinea pigs at a temperature range of 98.6-104 F. An in silico study demonstrated the Sanal flow choking phenomenon leading to shock-wave generation and pressure-overshoot in the cardiovascular-system. It has been established that disproportionate blood-thinning treatment increases the risk of the internal-flow-choking due to the enhanced boundary-layer-blockage-factor, resulting from an increase in flow-turbulence level in the cardiovascular-system, caused by an increase in Reynolds number as a consequence of low blood-viscosity. The cardiovascular-risk can be diminished by concurrently lessening the viscosity of biofluid/blood and flow-turbulence by raising the thermal-tolerance-level in terms of blood-heat-capacity-ratio (BHCR) and/or by decreasing the systolic-to-diastolic blood-pressure-ratio.

The effects of submaximal exercise and cold exposure on blood coagulation parameters in coronary artery disease patients

BACKGROUND

Both exercise and cold exposure increase blood coagulation potential but their combined effects are not known. The purpose of the present study was to assess blood coagulation factors in response to submaximal exercise in the cold environment among patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

Sixteen men (61.1 ± 7.1 years) with stable CAD participated in three 30-min experimental conditions (seated rest in - 15 °C and exercise in both + 22 °C and - 15 °C) in random order. The employed exercise consisted of brisk walking (66-69% of maximal heart rate). Factor VII (FVII), fibrinogen, D-dimer and von Willebrand factor (vWF) were analyzed from blood samples obtained before, immediately and one hour after each experiment.

RESULTS

On average, FVII activity (95% confidence interval, CI) was 123 (108-143) %, 123 (106-140) %, 121 (103-139) % (baseline, recovery 1, recovery 2), fibrinogen concentration (95% CI) 3.81 (3.49-4.12) g/l, 3.71 (3.34-4.08) g/l, 3.65 (3.26-4.05) g/l, D-dimer concentration (95% CI) 0.42 (0.28-0.56) µg/ml, 0.42 (0.29-.55) µg/ml and 0.39 (0.29-0.49) µg/ml, and vWF activity (95% CI) 184 (135-232) %, 170 (128-212) % and 173 (129-217) % after exercise in the cold. Average FVII activity varied from 122 to 123%, fibrinogen concentration from 3.71 to 3.75 g/l, D-dimer concentration from 0.35 to 0.51 µg/ml and von Willebrand factor activity from 168 to 175% immediately after each three experimental condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that submaximal lower body exercise carried out in a cold environment does not significantly affect blood coagulation parameters among patients with stable CAD.

Health effects of heat vulnerability in Rio de Janeiro: a validation model for policy applications

Extreme heat events can lead to increased risk of heat-related deaths. Furthermore, urban areas are often hotter than their rural surroundings, exacerbating heat waves. Unfortunately, validation is difficult; to our knowledge, most validations, even if they control for temperatures, really only validate a social vulnerability index instead of a heat vulnerability index. Here we investigate how to construct and validate a heat vulnerability index given uncertainty ranges in data for the city of Rio de Janeiro. First, we compare excess deaths of certain types of circulatory diseases during heat waves. Second, we use demographic and environmental data and factor analysis to construct a set of unobserved factors and respective weightings related to heat vulnerability, including a Monte Carlo analysis to represent the uncertainty ranges assigned to the input data. Finally, we use distance to hospital and clinics and their health record data as an instrumental variable to validate our factors. We find that we can validate the Rio de Janeiro heat vulnerability index against excess deaths during heat waves; specifically, we use three types of regressions coupled with difference in difference calculations to show this is indeed a heat vulnerability index as opposed to a social vulnerability index. The factor analysis identifies two factors that contribute to >70% of the variability in the data; one socio-economic factor and one urban form factor. This suggests it is necessary to add a step to existing methods for validation of heat vulnerability indices, that of the difference-in-difference calculation.

[Out-of-Hospital and in-Hospital Death from Myocardial Infarction in Berlin]

Ziel der Studie Die Sterblichkeit am Herzinfarkt setzt sich zusammen aus den außerhalb und innerhalb der Klinik Verstorbenen. Da es sich beim Herzinfarkt um eine schwerwiegende Erkrankung handelt, ist der Anteil an Patienten, die vor Krankenhausaufnahme versterben, vergleichsweise groß und wie Daten aus Schweden und Augsburg zeigen in seiner relativen Häufigkeit bezogen auf alle am Infarkt Verstorbenen über die Zeit ansteigend. Ziel unserer Studie war es, für Berlin den Anteil an außerhalb zu innerhalb der Klinik am Infarkt Verstorbenen zu ermitteln.

Methode Gemeinsam mit dem Berliner Zentralarchiv für Leichenschauscheine wurden alle Leichenschauscheine vom 1.7.14–30.6.15 durchgesehen und die 1076 Verstorbenen, bei denen im Leichenschauschein Infarkt nach bestimmten Suchworten oder ICD10 kodiert (I21, I22, I23) angegeben wurde, anonymisiert in unsere Studie eingeschlossen.

Ergebnis Von den 1076 identifizierten Patienten verstarben 66% außerhalb und 34% während ihres Krankenhausaufenthaltes. Die innerhalb und außerhalb der Kliniken am Infarkt Verstorbenen zeigten keine Unterschiede im Anteil Frauen (40,4% innerhalb, 39,0% außerhalb; p=0,671), in der Häufigkeit der Obduktion (16,8–16,6%; p=0,938) oder in der Todesart „nicht natürlich“ bzw. ungewiss (17,1–19,3%; p=0,388). Unterschiede gab es im Alter und in den Sterbemonaten. Die außerhalb der Kliniken an einem Herzinfarkt Verstorbenen waren vergleichsweise jünger (76J.) als die in den Kliniken Verstorbenen (80J.). Dabei ist die Differenz am größten bei den<65-Jährigen, die zu 76,3% außerhalb und zu 23,7% in der Klinik verstarben. In den Monaten Juli–September war der relative Anteil an außerhalb der Klinik Verstorbenen mit 15,4% am niedrigsten und mit 29,4% für die innerhalb der Klinik Verstorbenen am höchsten. Diese Tendenz traf auf jüngere und ältere Verstorbene und auf Männer und Frauen gleichermaßen zu.

Schlussfolgerung Im Untersuchungszeitraum Juli 2014 bis Juni 2015 verstarben zwei Drittel der am Infarkt Verstorbenen in Berlin außerhalb der Kliniken. Der Herzinfarkttod außerhalb der Kliniken betraf bevorzugt Jüngere und variierte jahreszeitlich. Das im Vergleich zur stationären Sterblichkeit nach wie vor hohe Ausmaß der Herzinfarktsterblichkeit außerhalb der Kliniken sollte vermehrte Anstrengungen zu wissenschaftlich begleiteter verbesserter Prävention und Versorgung stimulieren.

Trends and seasonal variation of hospitalization and mortality of interstitial lung disease in the United States from 2006 to 2016

Background

In the recent years, the overall trends in hospital admission and mortality of interstitial lung disease (ILD) are unknown. In addition, there was some evidence that interstitial lung disease death rate highest in the winter but this finding was only available in one study. This study will investigate the trend and seasonal variations in hospital admission and mortality rates of ILD from 2006 to 2016.

Method

From the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database, we collected all cases with the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 or ICD-10 codes of ILD excluding identifiable external causes (drug, organic or inorganic dusts) from 2006 to 2016. Hospitalization rates of each year were calculated based on U.S Census population data. Monthly hospitalization and in-hospital mortality rates were analyzed by seasonal and trend decomposition. Subgroups of idiopathic interstitial fibrosis (IPF), acute respiratory failure (ARF), pneumonia were analyzed.

Results

From 2006 to 2016, all-cause hospital admission rate of patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) and IPF-only subgroup declined but their overall mortality remained unchanged (except IPF subgroup and acute respiratory failure subgroup). Acute respiratory failure related admission account for 23% of all causes and pneumonia 17.6%. Mortality of ILD in general and subgroup of ILD with ARF was highest in winter, up to 8.13% ± 0.60 and 26.3% ± 10.2% respectively. The seasonal variations of hospital admission and mortality of ILD in general was not changed when infectious pneumonia cases were ruled out. All cause admission rates were highest in months from January to April. Subgroup analysis also showed seasonal variations with highest hospitalization rates for all subgroups (IPF, ARF, pneumonia) in the months from December to April (winter to early Spring).

Conclusion

From 2006 to 2016, admission rates of ILD of all causes and IPF subgroup declined but in-hospital mortality of ILD of all causes remained unchanged. Mortality of IPF subgroup and acute respiratory failure subgroup trended down. All-cause hospital admissions and mortality of ILD have a strong seasonal variation. Hospitalization rates for all subgroups (IPF, ARF, pneumonia) were highest in the months from December to April.

Seasonality in pain, sleep and mental distress in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain at latitude 69° N

Seasonality is evident in several aspects of human health and behavior, whereas seasonality in chronic pain is less well studied. We examined seasonal variation in pain severity and pain dissemination, as well as in pain-associated conditions, such as sleep impairment, sleep timing, mental distress, fatigue and physical activity. We also examined if any of these associated conditions moderated the seasonality in pain. This prospective study was conducted in the subarctic municipality of Tromsø, Norway (69º North), on a sample of patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain (N = 56). Data were collected with self-report questionnaires and objective actigraphy measures (7 days) twice: winter and summer. Mixed linear regression models were fitted. A modest seasonality effect was observed in pain severity (highest in summer), but not in pain dissemination. Seasonality with increased physical activity and delayed sleep timing in the summer was also present. The remaining pain-associated self-report or objective measures indicated no seasonality. The season-pain association was not significantly moderated by any of the pain-associated conditions. Previous studies on healthy individuals residing in polar areas have suggested an opposite seasonal effect with delay of the sleep-wake rhythm in winter. Our results based on a clinical sample thus represent a novel finding that needs to be examined further with regard to seasonal circadian entrainment and alignment in pain populations. These results may have clinical value for the treatment of patients with musculoskeletal pain as seasonality may require seasonal adjustments of pain treatment strategies.

Some Near- and Far-Environmental Effects on Human Health and Disease with a Focus on the Cardiovascular System

Environmental effects on human physiopathology are revisited herein from a chronobiologic viewpoint, with a focus on the cardiovascular system. Physiological variables undergo recurring changes that are predictable in a statistical, albeit not deterministic way. Biological rhythms cover a broad range of frequencies, which are usually shared by the environment as “co-periodisms”. Some of these photic and non-photic periodicities shared by the environment and physiopathology are reviewed herein, together with their possible underlying mechanisms. A plausible cascade of events from the long-period cycles found in the cosmic environment to those affecting the Earth’s atmosphere and weather conditions is presented, which may shed light on how they may shape the cycles characterizing human health. Maps of important cycles shared between the environment and physiopathology are being catalogued in an atlas of chronomes with the goal of distinguishing between strong and weak associations and providing an estimate of the lag that can be anticipated before observing physiological changes.

Retinal vascular abnormalities and their associations with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases: a Study in rural southwestern Harbin, China

Background

Limited data is available on retinal vessel morphology in the north China. The study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of retinal vascular abnormalities (RVAs) and investigate their associations with the self-reported diagnosis of cardiovascular and cerebrovascsular diseases (CCVds) in a rural adult population of northeast China.

Methods

A population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted, using the cluster random sampling method. One eye of each participant was photographed with a non-mydriatic fundus camera. RVAs including focal and general arteriolar narrowing (FAN and GAN), arteriovenous nicking (AVN), arteriolar sheathing (AS), and retinopathy were evaluated. Data on self-reported diagnosis of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and status of smoking and alcohol drinking were obtained from questionnaires.

Results

Among the 6267 participants with an age ≥ 50 years, photographs were obtained of 99.2%, with quality sufficient to perform retinal evaluations in 82.5%. The prevalence of FAN, AVN, AS, retinopathy and GAN were 9.1, 8.9, 5.0, 6.6 and 6.2%, respectively. All the retinal lesions were associated with hypertension (all P < 0.01). After adjusting for age, gender, and left/right eyes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes mellitus, habits of past or current smoking and alcohol consumption, AVN was strongly associated with the self-reported diagnosis histories of coronary heart diseases(CHD) (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.89) and retinopathy was significantly associated with a self-reported diagnosis of stroke (OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.18, 3.57).

Conclusions

The overall prevalence of retinal microvascular abnormalities in this population was relatively higher than that reported in other regions of the world. Retinopathy is associated with the self-reported diagnosis of stroke while AVN was associated with the self-reported diagnosis of CHD, but the remaining retinal lesions were not consistently associated with CCVds. Thus, an examination of retinal microvascular characteristics may offer clues to CCVds and could be a potentially novel biomarkers for CCVds risk.

The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States

Exposure to high ambient temperatures is an important cause of avoidable, premature death that may become more prevalent under climate change. Though extensive epidemiological data are available in the United States, they are largely limited to select large cities, and hence, most projections estimate the potential impact of future warming on a subset of the U.S. population. Here we utilize evaluations of the relative risk of premature death associated with temperature in 10 U.S. cities spanning a wide range of climate conditions to develop a generalized risk function. We first evaluate the performance of this generalized function, which introduces substantial biases at the individual city level but performs well at the large scale. We then apply this function to estimate the impacts of projected climate change on heat-related nationwide U.S. deaths under a range of scenarios. During the current decade, there are 12,000 (95% confidence interval 7,400-16,500) premature deaths annually in the contiguous United States, much larger than most estimates based on totals for select individual cities. These values increase by 97,000 (60,000-134,000) under the high-warming Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and by 36,000 (22,000-50,000) under the moderate RCP4.5 scenario by 2100, whereas they remain statistically unchanged under the aggressive mitigation scenario RCP2.6. These results include estimates of adaptation that reduce impacts by ~40-45% as well as population increases that roughly offset adaptation. The results suggest that the degree of climate change mitigation will have important health impacts on Americans.

Higher admission rates and in-hospital mortality for acute type A aortic dissection during Influenza season: a single center experience

Triggering events for acute aortic dissections are incompletely understood. We sought to investigate whether there is an association between admission for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) to the University of Michigan Medical Center and the reported annual influenza activity by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. From 1996–2019 we had 758 patients admitted for ATAAD with 3.1 admissions per month during November-March and 2.5 admissions per month during April-October (p = 0.01). Influenza reporting data by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services became available in 2009. ATAAD admissions for the period 2009–2019 (n = 455) were 4.8 cases/month during peak influenza months compared to 3.5 cases/month during non-peak influenza months (p = 0.001). ATAAD patients admitted during influenza season had increased in-hospital mortality (11.0% vs. 5.8%, p = 0.024) and increased 30-day mortality (9.7 vs. 5.4%, p = 0.048). The results point to higher admission rates for ATAAD during months with above average influenza rates. Future studies need to investigate whether influenza virus infection affects susceptibility for aortic dissection, and whether this risk can be attenuated with the annual influenza vaccine in this patient population.

Seasonal variation of diet quality in a large middle-aged and elderly Dutch population-based cohort

PURPOSE

Several studies have reported seasonal variation in intake of food groups and certain nutrients. However, whether this could lead to a seasonal pattern of diet quality has not been addressed. We aimed to describe the seasonality of diet quality, and to examine the contribution of the food groups included in the dietary guidelines to this seasonality.

METHODS

Among 9701 middle-aged and elderly participants of the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort, diet was assessed using food-frequency questionnaires (FFQ). Diet quality was measured as adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines, and expressed in a diet quality score ranging from 0 to 14 points. The seasonality of diet quality and of the food group intake was examined using cosinor linear mixed models. Models were adjusted for sex, age, cohort, energy intake, physical activity, body mass index, comorbidities, and education.

RESULTS

Diet quality had a seasonal pattern with a winter-peak (seasonal variation = 0.10 points, December-peak) especially among participants who were men, obese and of high socio-economic level. This pattern was mostly explained by the seasonal variation in the intake of legumes (seasonal variation = 3.52 g/day, December-peak), nuts (seasonal variation = 0.78 g/day, January-peak), sugar-containing beverages (seasonal variation = 12.96 milliliters/day, June-peak), and dairy (seasonal variation = 17.52 g/day, June-peak).

CONCLUSIONS

Diet quality varies seasonally with heterogeneous seasonality of food groups counteractively contributing to the seasonal pattern in diet quality. This seasonality should be considered in future research on dietary behavior. Also, season-specific recommendations and policies are required to improve diet quality throughout the year.

Seasonal variations in cause-specific mortality and transition to renal replacement therapy among patients with end-stage renal disease

Despite some studies showing seasonal variations in mortality and the transition to renal replacement therapy in patients with end-stage renal disease, detailed evidence is still scarce. We investigated seasonal variations in patients with end-stage renal disease using a large Japanese database for dialysis patients. We compared the fractions of all-cause and cause-specific mortality and the transition to renal replacement therapy among seasons and performed a mixed-effects Poisson regression analysis to compare the mortality among seasons after adjustment for some variables. The initiation of hemodialysis was highest in winter and lowest in summer. Seasonality in the initiation of peritoneal dialysis and transition to kidney transplantation differed from hemodialysis. All-cause mortality was highest in the winter and lowest in the summer. Death from coronary artery disease, heart failure, cerebral hemorrhage, and infectious pneumonia had similar seasonality, but death from cerebral infarction, septicemia, or malignant tumor did not have similar seasonality. In conclusion, the initiation of hemodialysis, all-cause mortality, and mortality from coronary heart disease, heart failure, cerebral hemorrhage, and infectious pneumonia were significantly highest in winter and lowest in summer. However, the initiation of peritoneal dialysis, transition to kidney transplantation, or mortality from cerebral infarction, septicemia, or malignant tumor did not have similar seasonal variations.

Seasonal variation in the frequency of venous thromboembolism: An updated result of a meta-analysis and systemic review

Objective

Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is likely to cause the death of both medical and surgical patients. Despite some evidence of seasonal variation in the incidence of venous thromboembolism, the existing studies obtain contradictory results. A temporal pattern for pulmonary embolism is known, but data on deep vein thrombosis are inconclusive. The purpose of this study is to make a meta-analysis and systematically review the literature about seasonal variations of pulmonary embolism and/or deep vein thrombosis in order to objectively diagnose venous thromboembolism.

Methods

According to dichotomous data, risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to compare the incidence of venous thromboembolism in different seasons. The research was classified according to pulmonary embolism mortality, pulmonary embolism/deep vein thrombosis incidence, latitude/elevation/climatic types, and monthly incidence for four subgroup comparisons. There were a total of 23 eligible studies, in which 40,309 patients with venous thromboembolism were compared.

Results

The pooled total venous thromboembolism incidence was 27.2% in winter, 23.1% in spring, 24.6% in summer, and 25.1% in autumn. According to the results of pooled analysis, the incidence of venous thromboembolism in winter was much higher than that in summer (RR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01–1.24, adjusted P = .04), especially deep vein thrombosis. Moreover, the incidence of venous thromboembolism in summer and autumn was lower than that in winter in low-latitude (<200 m) areas and median low-latitude (0–50°-N) areas. Interestingly, the frequency of pulmonary embolism mortality was the largest in spring and smallest in summer (spring > winter ≈ autumn > summer). For monthly data, a statistically significantly lower incidence of venous thromboembolism was observed in May and July than in October.

Conclusions

The study revealed a significantly higher incidence of venous thromboembolism and deep vein thrombosis in winter than in summer. Pulmonary embolism mortality occurred more frequently in spring than during other seasons. A statistically significantly lower incidence of venous thromboembolism was observed in May and July compared with that in October.

Association of Weather With Day-to-Day Incidence of Myocardial Infarction: A SWEDEHEART Nationwide Observational Study

Importance

Whether certain weather conditions modulate the onset of myocardial infarction (MI) is of great interest to clinicians because it could be used to prevent MIs as well as guide allocation of health care resources.

Objective

To determine if weather is associated with day-to-day incidence of MI.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this prospective, population-based and nationwide setting, daily weather data from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute were extracted for all MIs reported to the Swedish nationwide coronary care unit registry, Swedish Web-System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART), during 1998 to 2013 and then merged with each MI on date of symptom onset and coronary care unit. All patients admitted to any coronary care unit in Sweden owing to MI were included. A total of 280 873 patients were included, of whom 92 044 were diagnosed as having ST-elevation MI. Weather data were available for 274 029 patients (97.6%), which composed the final study population. Data were analyzed between February 2017 and April 2018.

Exposures

The nationwide daily mean air temperature, minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, wind velocity, sunshine duration, atmospheric air pressure, air humidity, snow precipitation, rain precipitation, and change in air temperature.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The nationwide daily counts of MI as outcome.

Results

In 274 029 patients, mean (SD) age was 71.7 (12) years. Incidence of MI increased with lower air temperature, lower atmospheric air pressure, higher wind velocity, and shorter sunshine duration. The most pronounced association was observed for air temperature, where a 1-SD increase in air temperature (7.4°C) was associated with a 2.8% reduction in risk of MI (unadjusted incidence ratio, 0.972; 95% CI, 0.967-0.977; P <.001). Results were consistent for non-ST-elevation MI as well as ST-elevation MI and across a large range of subgroups and health care regions.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this large, nationwide study, low air temperature, low atmospheric air pressure, high wind velocity, and shorter sunshine duration were associated with risk of MI with the most evident association observed for air temperature.