Managed Relocation: Integrating the Scientific, Regulatory, and Ethical Challenges

Tree regeneration and ontogenetic strategies of northern European hemiboreal forests: transitioning towards closer-to-nature forest management

Background

Tree ontogeny is the genetic trajectories of regenerative processes in trees, repeating in time and space, including both development and reproduction. Understanding the principles of tree ontogeny is a key priority in emulating natural ecological patterns and processes that fall within the calls for closer-to-nature forest management. By recognizing and respecting the growth and development of individual trees and forest stands, forest managers can implement strategies that align with the inherent dynamics of forest ecosystem. Therefore, this study aims to determine the ontogenetic characteristics of tree regeneration and growth in northern European hemiboreal forests.

Methodology

We applied a three-step process to review i) the ontogenetic characteristics of forest trees, ii) ontogenetic strategies of trees for stand-forming species, and iii) summarise the review findings of points i and ii to propose a conceptual framework for transitioning towards closer-to-nature management of hemiboreal forest trees. To achieve this, we applied the super-organism approach to forest development as a holistic progression towards the establishment of natural stand forming ecosystems.

Results

The review showed multiple aspects; first, there are unique growth and development characteristics of individual trees at the pre-generative and generative stages of ontogenesis under full and minimal light conditions. Second, there are four main modes of tree establishment, growth and development related to the light requirements of trees; they were described as ontogenetic strategies of stand-forming tree species: gap colonisers, gap successors, gap fillers and gap competitors. Third, the summary of our analysis of the ontogenetic characteristics of tree regeneration and growth in northern European hemiboreal forests shows that stand-forming species occupy multiple niche positions relative to forest dynamics modes.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the importance of understanding tree ontogeny under the pretext of closer-to-nature forest management, and its potential towards formulating sustainable forest management that emulates the natural dynamics of forest structure. We suggest that scientists and foresters can adapt closer-to-nature management strategies, such as assisted natural regeneration of trees, to improve the vitality of tree communities and overall forest health. The presented approach prioritizes ecological integrity and forest resilience, promoting assisted natural regeneration, and fostering adaptability and connectivity among plant populations in hemiboreal tree communities.

Climatic variation allows montane willows to escape an adaptive trade-off

Adaptive responses to climate change, based on heritable variation in stress tolerance, may be important for plant population persistence. It is unclear which populations will mount the strongest future adaptive responses. It may be fruitful to identify populations that have escaped trade-offs among performance traits, which can hinder adaptation. Barring strong genetic constraints, the extent of trade-offs may depend on spatial relationships among climate variables shaping different traits. Here, we test for climate-driven ecotypic variation and trade-offs among drought and freezing sensitivity, and growth, for Lemmon's willow (Salix lemmonii) in a common garden study of 90 genotypes from 38 sites in the Sierra Nevada, USA. Salix lemmonii exhibits ecotypic variation in leaf turgor loss point, a measure of drought sensitivity, from -0.95 to -0.74 MPa along a gradient of spring snowpack. We also find variation in spring freezing sensitivity with minimum May temperature. However, we find no trade-off, as the climatic gradients shaping these traits are spatially uncorrelated in our study region, despite being negatively correlated across the Sierra Nevada. Species may escape adaptive trade-offs in geographic regions where climate variables are spatially decoupled. These regions may represent valuable reservoirs of heritable adaptive phenotypic variation.

Understanding Local Adaptation to Prepare Populations for Climate Change

Adaptation within species to local environments is widespread in nature. Better understanding this local adaptation is critical to conserving biodiversity. However, conservation practices can rely on species’ trait averages or can broadly assume homogeneity across the range to inform management. Recent methodological advances for studying local adaptation provide the opportunity to fine-tune efforts for managing and conserving species. The implementation of these advances will allow us to better identify populations at greatest risk of decline because of climate change, as well as highlighting possible strategies for improving the likelihood of population persistence amid climate change. In the present article, we review recent advances in the study of local adaptation and highlight ways these tools can be applied in conservation efforts. Cutting-edge tools are available to help better identify and characterize local adaptation. Indeed, increased incorporation of local adaptation in management decisions may help meet the imminent demands of managing species amid a rapidly changing world.

Expanding the invasion toolbox: including stable isotope analysis in risk assessment

Species introductions are a major concern for ecosystem functioning, socio-economic wealth, and human well-being. Preventing introductions proved to be the most effective management strategy, and various tools such as species distribution models and risk assessment protocols have been developed or applied to this purpose. These approaches use information on a species to predict its potential invasiveness and impact in the case of its introduction into a new area. At the same time, much biodiversity has been lost due to multiple drivers. Ways to determine the potential for successful reintroductions of once native but now extinct species as well as assisted migrations are yet missing. Stable isotope analyses are commonly used to reconstruct a species’ feeding ecology and trophic interactions within communities. Recently, this method has been used to predict potentially arising trophic interactions in the absence of the target species. Here we propose the implementation of stable isotope analysis as an approach for assessment schemes to increase the accuracy in predicting invader impacts as well as the success of reintroductions and assisted migrations. We review and discuss possibilities and limitations of this methods usage, suggesting promising and useful applications for scientists and managers.

A review on invasive false indigo bush (Amorpha fruticosa L.): Nuisance plant with multiple benefits

Increased mobility of people around the globe has facilitated transferring species to new environments, where some have found suitable conditions and even become invasive. False indigo-bush (Amorpha fruticosa L.) is a plant native to North America but has intentionally or unintentionally spread over the Northern Hemisphere, where it often becomes invasive. The plant is especially easily dispersed within the watersheds of large rivers, where seasonal flooding is regular. Seeds and other propagules are buoyant, and when the water recedes, new plants emerge, forming dense thickets where only a few other species can co-exist. In order to sustain native biodiversity, spread control is needed. However, mechanical control and eradication measures currently in use are labor demanding and costly, while application of herbicides is limited. On the other hand, the plant possesses a number of beneficial properties, such as phytochemical applications (medical and insecticidal effects), biocoenotic uses (honey plant, ornamental features), and ecosystem services (soil stabilization, provision of food for animals, and fiber and biomass for industry, e.g., nanocellulose). For the reasons above mentioned, the plant is considered quite controversial, and the paper discusses both aspects: potential detrimental effects when introduced to new habitats and its beneficial uses for human society. In addition, the paper presents alternative measures of spreading control (e.g., grazing) and argues that exploiting it for beneficial purposes might help spread control, thus covering the expenses of controlling its distribution.

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces

Background

In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide.

Methods

We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961-1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate).

Results

Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5-0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively.

Conclusions

Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.

Current Conservation Regimes and the Road to Laws on Assisted Migration

The negative impact of climate change on biodiversity will continue to escalate rapidly. While some species will naturally migrate to more suitable areas or adapt to the new climatic environmental conditions in different fashions, for others doing so may prove to be problematic or impossible. Against this backdrop, scientists and environmentalists have proposed implementing plans for Assisted Migration (AM)-meaning the translocation of plants and animals to areas outside their natural habitats to conserve their species under the new emerging climatic conditions. This article seeks to identify legal approaches towards AM considering not only possible benefits from using this tool but also a necessity to minimize related risks. With regard to its stated purpose, this article also compares legal and policy documents relevant to AM issues from the United States, Australia, and the European Union. In conclusion, we have found, and this article shows, that while existing legal and policy documents leave room for manoeuvreing in regard to climate-related translocations and even sometimes explicitly mention AM as a possible tool for conservation, there exists a need for the further development of concrete legal mechanisms and their balancing with the predominant ideas and goals brought about by the necessity to protect native biota.

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)-the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change-is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species' AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species' attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species' AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species' innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species' AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies

The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.

Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision-making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species' optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.

Responding to Ecological Transformation: Mental Models, External Constraints, and Manager Decision-Making

Ecological transformation creates many challenges for public natural resource management and requires managers to grapple with new relationships to change and new ways to manage it. In the context of unfamiliar trajectories of ecological change, a manager can resist, accept, or direct change, choices that make up the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework. In this article, we provide a conceptual framework for how to think about this new decision space that managers must navigate. We identify internal factors (mental models) and external factors (social feasibility, institutional context, and scientific uncertainty) that shape management decisions. We then apply this conceptual framework to the RAD strategies (resist, accept, direct) to illuminate how internal and external factors shape those decisions. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how this conceptual framework shapes our understanding of management decisions, especially how these decisions are not just ecological but also social, and the implications for research and management.

Challenges and opportunities for assisted regional ecosystem adaptation: International experience and implications for adaptation research

Maintaining the functional integrity of ecosystems as climate pressures exceed natural rates of adaptation requires new knowledge and new approaches to governance and management. However, research into management interventions to assist regional ecosystem adaptation has generated both scientific and ethical debate. This paper reviews experience to date in order to identify the challenges and opportunities for assisted regional ecosystem adaptation and reflect on the implications for ongoing adaptation research. The review was informed by a database and structured analysis of some 450 reports, peer-reviewed manuscripts and books on participation theory and experience with novel technology development and assisted ecosystem adaptation. We identified five classes of challenges to adaptation research: 1) scientific conflicts and debates over the “facts”, 2) social challenges, 3) governance challenges, 4) epistemic challenges, and 5) ontological conflicts. We argue that engagement strategies linked to the multiple objectives of adaptation research provide opportunities for ecosystem adaptation.

Perceived Barriers to the Use of Assisted Colonization for Climate Sensitive Species in the Hawaiian Islands

Conservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for single island or single mountain range endemic species. Despite the existence of policies that allow for this action, to date, assisted colonization has rarely been utilized for species of conservation concern in the Hawaiian Islands. Given the potential for climate driven biodiversity loss, the Hawaiian Islands are a prime location for the consideration of adaptation strategies. We used first-person interviews with conservation decision makers, managers, and scientists who work with endangered species in the Hawaiian Islands to identify perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization. We found that assisted colonization was often not considered or utilized due to a lack of expertize with translocations; ecological risk and uncertainty, economic constraints, concerns regarding policies and permitting, concerns with public perception, and institutional resistance. Therefore, conservation planners may benefit from decision tools that integrate risk and uncertainty into decision models, and compare potential outcomes among conservation actions under consideration, including assisted colonization. Within a decision framework that addresses concerns, all conservation actions for climate sensitive species, including assisted colonization, may be considered in a timely manner.

Supporting the adaptive capacity of species through more effective knowledge exchange with conservation practitioners

There is an imperative for conservation practitioners to help biodiversity adapt to accelerating environmental change. Evolutionary biologists are well-positioned to inform the development of evidence-based management strategies that support the adaptive capacity of species and ecosystems. Conservation practitioners increasingly accept that management practices must accommodate rapid environmental change, but harbour concerns about how to apply recommended changes to their management contexts. Given the interest from both conservation practitioners and evolutionary biologists in adjusting management practices, we believe there is an opportunity to accelerate the required changes by promoting closer collaboration between these two groups. We highlight how evolutionary biologists can harness lessons from other disciplines about how to foster effective knowledge exchange to make a substantive contribution to the development of effective conservation practices. These lessons include the following: (1) recognizing why practitioners do and do not use scientific evidence; (2) building an evidence base that will influence management decisions; (3) translating theory into a format that conservation practitioners can use to inform management practices; and (4) developing strategies for effective knowledge exchange. Although efforts will be required on both sides, we believe there are rewards for both practitioners and evolutionary biologists, not least of which is fostering practices to help support the long-term persistence of species.

Importance of species translocations under rapid climate change

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.

Rock glaciers and related cold rocky landforms: Overlooked climate refugia for mountain biodiversity

Mountains are global biodiversity hotspots where cold environments and their associated ecological communities are threatened by climate warming. Considerable research attention has been devoted to understanding the ecological effects of alpine glacier and snowfield recession. However, much less attention has been given to identifying climate refugia in mountain ecosystems where present-day environmental conditions will be maintained, at least in the near-term, as other habitats change. Around the world, montane communities of microbes, animals, and plants live on, adjacent to, and downstream of rock glaciers and related cold rocky landforms (CRL). These geomorphological features have been overlooked in the ecological literature despite being extremely common in mountain ranges worldwide with a propensity to support cold and stable habitats for aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. CRLs are less responsive to atmospheric warming than alpine glaciers and snowfields due to the insulating nature and thermal inertia of their debris cover paired with their internal ventilation patterns. Thus, CRLs are likely to remain on the landscape after adjacent glaciers and snowfields have melted, thereby providing longer-term cold habitat for biodiversity living on and downstream of them. Here, we show that CRLs will likely act as key climate refugia for terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity in mountain ecosystems, offer guidelines for incorporating CRLs into conservation practices, and identify areas for future research.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change

During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.

Non-native plants exert strong but under-studied influence on fire dynamics

Altered fire regimes are among the most destructive consequences of anthropogenic environmental change. Fires have increased in frequency in some regions, and invasion by fire-adapted non-native species has been identified as a major driver of this change, which results in a feedback cycle promoting further spread by the non-native species and diminishing occurrence of natives. We notice, however, that non-native species are often invoked in passing as a primary cause of changing fire dynamics, but that data supporting this claim are rarely presented. We therefore performed a meta-analysis of published literature to determine whether a significant relationship exists between non-native species presence and increased fire effects and risk, examined via various fire metrics. Our analysis detected a strongly significant difference between fire metrics associated with non-native and native species, with non-native species linked to enhanced fire effects and risk. However, only 30 papers discussing this linkage provided data to support it, and those quantitative studies examined only eight regions, five biome types, and a total of 22 unique non-native taxa. It is clear that we are only beginning to understand the relationship between non-native species and fire and that results drawn from an extremely limited set of contexts have been broadly applied in the literature. It is important for ecologists to continue to investigate drivers of changing fire regimes as factors such as climate change and land use change alter native and non-native fuels alike.

Global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees to prevent tree invasions and mitigate their negative impacts

Sustainably managed non-native trees deliver economic and societal benefits with limited risk of spread to adjoining areas. However, some plantations have launched invasions that cause substantial damage to biodiversity and ecosystem services, while others pose substantial threats of causing such impacts. The challenge is to maximise the benefits of non-native trees, while minimising negative impacts and preserving future benefits and options.

A workshop was held in 2019 to develop global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees, using the Council of Europe – Bern Convention Code of Conduct on Invasive Alien Trees as a starting point.

The global guidelines consist of eight recommendations: 1) Use native trees, or non-invasive non-native trees, in preference to invasive non-native trees; 2) Be aware of and comply with international, national, and regional regulations concerning non-native trees; 3) Be aware of the risk of invasion and consider global change trends; 4) Design and adopt tailored practices for plantation site selection and silvicultural management; 5) Promote and implement early detection and rapid response programmes; 6) Design and adopt tailored practices for invasive non-native tree control, habitat restoration, and for dealing with highly modified ecosystems; 7) Engage with stakeholders on the risks posed by invasive non-native trees, the impacts caused, and the options for management; and 8) Develop and support global networks, collaborative research, and information sharing on native and non-native trees.

The global guidelines are a first step towards building global consensus on the precautions that should be taken when introducing and planting non-native trees. They are voluntary and are intended to complement statutory requirements under international and national legislation. The application of the global guidelines and the achievement of their goals will help to conserve forest biodiversity, ensure sustainable forestry, and contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations linked with forest biodiversity.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Adaptational lag to temperature in valley oak (Quercus lobata) can be mitigated by genome-informed assisted gene flow

Climate change over the next century is predicted to cause widespread maladaptation in natural systems. This prediction, as well as many sustainable management and conservation practices, assumes that species are adapted to their current climate. However, this assumption is rarely tested. Using a large-scale common garden experiment combined with genome-wide sequencing, we found that valley oak (Quercus lobata), a foundational tree species in California ecosystems, showed a signature of adaptational lag to temperature, with fastest growth rates occurring at cooler temperatures than populations are currently experiencing. Future warming under realistic emissions scenarios was predicted to lead to further maladaptation to temperature and reduction in growth rates for valley oak. We then identified genotypes predicted to grow relatively fast under warmer temperatures and demonstrated that selecting seed sources based on their genotype has the potential to mitigate predicted negative consequences of future climate warming on growth rates in valley oak. These results illustrate that the belief of local adaptation underlying many management and conservation practices, such as using local seed sources for restoration, may not hold for some species. If contemporary adaptational lag is commonplace, we will need new approaches to help alleviate predicted negative consequences of climate warming on natural systems. We present one such approach, "genome-informed assisted gene flow," which optimally matches individuals to future climates based on genotype-phenotype-environment associations.

Fitting the US National Park Service for Change

The US National Park Service (NPS), which manages over 85 million acres and over 400 units, contends with myriad external drivers of ecosystem change that threaten parks. Stressors such as invasive species, habitat fragmentation, warming climates and rising sea level, raise the potential that parks will not attain or sustain their congressionally designated missions. Using invasive animals as a focal example of such changes, we suggest the NPS consider increasing active management of resources, participating in cooperative ecoregional management, increasing the use of public participation, and using formal decision support tools. We illustrate how these management approaches are currently underused. Acknowledging that invasive species are but one of a suite of problems that are threatening to overwhelm park management capacity we believe that the approaches we outline generalize to myriad problems facing the NPS.

Hope and caution: rewilding to mitigate the impacts of biological invasions

Rewilding is a novel approach to ecological restoration. Trophic rewilding in particular aims to reinstate ecological functions, especially trophic interactions, through the introduction of animals. We consider the potential for trophic rewilding to address biological invasions. In this broad review, we note some of the important conceptual and ethical foundations of rewilding, including a focus on ecosystem function rather than composition, reliance on animal agency, and an appeal to an ethic of coexistence. Second, we use theory from invasion biology to highlight pathways by which rewilding might prevent or mitigate the impacts of an invasion, including increasing biotic resistance. Third, we use a series of case studies to illustrate how reintroductions can mitigate the impacts of invasions. These include reintroductions and positive management of carnivores and herbivores including European pine martens (Martes martes), Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra), dingoes (Canis dingo), Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) and tule elk (Cervus canadensis nannodes). Fourth, we consider the risk that rewilding may enable a biological invasion or aggravate its impacts. Lastly, we highlight lessons that rewilding science might take from invasion biology.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.

Biogeographic constraints to marine conservation in a changing climate

The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions.

Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced

Population genomic surveys suggest that climate-associated genetic variation occurs widely across species, but whether it is sufficient to allow population persistence via evolutionary adaptation has seldom been quantified. To ask whether rapid adaptation in reef-building corals can keep pace with future ocean warming, we measured genetic variation at predicted warm-adapted loci and simulated future evolution and persistence in a high-latitude population of corals from Rarotonga, Cook Islands. Alleles associated with thermal tolerance were present but at low frequencies in this cooler, southerly locality. Simulations based on predicted ocean warming in Rarotonga showed rapid evolution of heat tolerance resulting in population persistence under mild warming scenarios consistent with low CO₂ emission plans, RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. Under more severe scenarios, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, adaptation was not rapid enough to prevent extinction. Population adaptation was faster for models based on smaller numbers of additive loci that determine thermal tolerance and for higher population growth rates. Finally, accelerated migration via transplantation of thermally tolerant individuals (1 to 5%/year) sped adaptation. These results show that cool-water corals can adapt to warmer oceans but only under mild scenarios resulting from international emissions controls. Incorporation of genomic data into models of species response to climate change offers a promising method for estimating future adaptive processes.

Genetic conservation and management of the California endemic, Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry): Implications of genetic rescue in a genetically depauperate species

Rare species present a challenge under changing environmental conditions as the genetic consequences of rarity may limit species ability to adapt to environmental change. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of a rare species, we assessed variation in traits important to plant fitness using multigenerational common garden experiments. Torrey pine, Pinus torreyana Parry, is one of the rarest pines in the world, restricted to one mainland and one island population. Morphological differentiation between island and mainland populations suggests adaptation to local environments may have contributed to trait variation. The distribution of phenotypic variances within the common garden suggests distinct population-specific growth trajectories underlay genetic differences, with the island population exhibiting substantially reduced genetic variance for growth relative to the mainland population. Furthermore, F1 hybrids, representing a cross between mainland and island trees, exhibit increased height accumulation and fecundity relative to mainland and island parents. This may indicate genetic rescue via intraspecific hybridization could provide the necessary genetic variation to persist in environments modified as a result of climate change. Long-term common garden experiments, such as these, provide invaluable resources to assess the distribution of genetic variance that may inform conservation strategies to preserve evolutionary potential of rare species, including genetic rescue.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.

Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.