Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system

Effects of simulated warming on soil microbial community diversity and composition across diverse ecosystems

Soil warming can directly affect the microbial community, or indirectly affect the microbial community by affecting soil moisture, nutrient availability, vegetation growth, etc. However, the response of microorganisms to soil warming is complex, and there is no uniform conclusion on the impact and mechanism of warming on microbial diversity. As the global climate gradually warms, a comprehensive assessment of warming on soil microbial community changes is essential to understand and predict the response of microbial geochemical processes to soil warming. Here, we perform a meta-analysis of studies to investigate changes in soil microbial communities along soil warming gradients and the response of soil microbes to elevated temperature in different ecosystems. We found that the α diversity index of soil microorganisms decreased significantly with the increase in temperature, and the β diversity altered with the increase in soil temperature and the shifts in ecosystem. Most bacteria only alter when the temperature rises higher. Compared to the non-warming condition, the relative abundance of Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Planctomycetes and Verrucomicrobia decreased by 19 %, 11 %, 19 %, 8 % and 6 %, respectively, and the relative abundance of Firmicutes increased by 34 %. Compared to farmland, forest, grassland and tundra ecosystems, soil microorganisms in wetland ecosystems were more sensitive to temperature increase, and the changes in bacteria were consistent with the overall alterations. This meta-analysis revealed significant changes in the composition of microbial communities on soil warming. With the decrease in biodiversity under increasing temperature conditions, these dominant microbiomes, which can grow well under high-temperature conditions, will play a stronger role in regulating nutrient and energy flow. Our analysis adds a global perspective to the temperature response of soil microbes, which is critical to improving our understanding of the mechanisms of how soil microbes change in response to climate warming.

Linking drought indices to atmospheric circulation in Svalbard, in the Atlantic sector of the High Arctic

Based on long-term climatological data from Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard Airport-Longyearbyen and the Polish Polar Station at Hornsund, we undertook an analysis of drought indices on Spitsbergen Island, Svalbard, for the period 1979-2019. The features and causes of spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric drought in Svalbard were identified, as expressed by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). There were several-year periods with SPEI indicating the dominance of drought or wet conditions. The long-term variability in the annual and half-year (May-October) SPEI values showed a prevalence of droughts in the 1980s and the first decade of the twenty-first century, while wet seasons were frequent in the 1990s and in the second decade of the twenty-first century. The seasonal SPEIs were characteristic of interannual variability. In MAM and JJA, droughts were more frequent after 2000; during SON and DJF of the same period, the frequency of wet seasons increased. The most remarkable changes in the scale of the entire research period occurred in autumn when negative values of SPEI occurred more often in the first part of the period, and positive values dominated in the last 20 years. The long-term pattern of the variables in consecutive seasons between 1979 and 2019 indicates relationships between the SPEI and anomalies of precipitable water and somewhat weaker relationships with anomalies of sea level pressure. The three stations are located at distances of more than 200 km from each other in the northern (Ny-Ålesund), central (Longyearbyen) and southern parts of Svalbard (Hornsund), and the most extreme values of drought conditions depended on the atmospheric circulation which could have been modified by local conditions thus droughts developed under various circulation types depending on the station. However, some similarities were identified in the atmospheric circulation patterns favouring drought conditions at Ny-Ålesund and Hornsund, both having more maritime climates than Longyearbyen. Extremely dry seasons were favoured by anticyclonic conditions, particularly a high-pressure ridge (type Ka) centred over Svalbard, air advection from the eastern sector under an influence of cyclone and negative precipitable water anomalies. During wet seasons anomalies of precipitable water were positive and cyclonic conditions dominated. These results were corroborated by the frequency of regional circulation types during JJA and DJF with the lowest and highest values of SPEI.

Vertical Gradient of Size-Resolved Aerosol Compositions over the Arctic Reveals Cloud Processed Aerosol in-Cloud and above Cloud

Arctic aerosols play a significant role in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, but ground-based measurements are insufficient to explain the interaction of aerosols and clouds in a vertically stratified Arctic atmosphere. This study shows the vertical variability of a size resolved aerosol composition via a tethered balloon system at Oliktok Point, Alaska, at different cloud layers for two representative case studies (background aerosol and polluted conditions). Multimodal microspectroscopy analysis during the background case reveals a broadening of chemically specific size distribution above the cloud top with a high abundance of sulfate particles and core-shell morphology, suggesting possible cloud processing of aerosols. The polluted case also indicates broadening of aerosol size distribution at the upper layer within the clouds with the dominance of carbonaceous particles, which suggests that the carbonaceous particles play a potential role in modulating Arctic cloud properties.

Different responses of CO2 and CH4 to freeze-thaw cycles in an alpine forest ecosystem in northwestern China

The frequency and intensity of freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) at high latitudes and altitudes are expected to increase with climate change, with likely effects on soil carbon turnover and CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. However, the effects of FTCs on CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes remain unexplored, especially in alpine forest ecosystems. Here, we conducted an incubation experiment using intact soil cores to explore the effects of FTCs on CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. Since temperature and moisture are considered as potential factors affecting FTCs, two freezing temperatures and three moisture levels were included in the incubation conditions. Our results showed that FTCs significantly affected CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes, but their response patterns to FTCs were distinct. The FTCs promoted CO₂ emission during the soil thawing phase, but reduced CH₄ uptake during the freezing phase, resulting at times in the transition of the soil from a sink to a source of CH₄. Both freezing temperature and soil moisture had significant impacts on CO₂ (F_temperature = 185.54, P < 0.001; F_moisture = 117.47, P < 0.001) and CH₄ fluxes (F_temperature = 123.68, P < 0.001; F_moisture = 14.55, P < 0.001), and their interaction also had significant impacts on CO₂ (F_CO2 = 3.16, P < 0.05) and CH₄ fluxes (F_CH4 = 15.19, P < 0.001) during FTCs. The effect of microclimate composed by freezing temperature and soil moisture on CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes is a direct and dominant pathway (path coefficient ≥ 0.50). Substrate quality, and microbial properties also influenced CO₂ fluxes during FTCs with the effect of the substrate being greater than that of microbial properties; substrate was important but the role of microorganisms was insignificant for CH₄ fluxes. Our study revealed that the different responses of CO₂ and CH₄ to FTCs in soil cores from an alpine forest ecosystem could improve the understanding of soil carbon release during FTCs and support accurate assessment of the carbon balance.

Permafrost degradation alters the environmental signals recorded in tree-ring lignin methoxy group δ2H in northeastern China

Climate warming has profoundly altered the status of permafrost and has caused extensive permafrost degradation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, long-term observations investigating the hydrological dynamics of permafrost and its ecological effects on plant growth are lacking. Previous studies have reported tree-ring stable hydrogen isotope ratios of lignin methoxy groups (δ²H_LM) as an archive of hydrological signals. This study sampled tree-ring cores from a Larix gmelinii forest in Nanwenghe Forest Park, Northeastern China, and separately measured the tree-ring δ²H_LM for earlywood and latewood from 1900 to 2020. Earlywood and latewood δ²H_LM values, as well as the difference between them, showed no significant long-term trend from 1900 to 1987; however, they both exhibited significant increasing trends since 1988 at rates of 2.6 ‰ and 4.9 ‰ per decade, respectively. This variance changes the magnitude of the difference between the two chronologies and can be explained by the shift in source water δ²H values during tree growth. Based on a structural equation model analysis, when the influence of permafrost melting weakened due to permafrost degradation, the growing season temperature was better recorded in latewood δ²H_LM through the effects of precipitation δ²H from July to September. Based on the environmental response of tree-ring δ²H_LM in the permafrost region, permafrost degradation influences the source water δ²H values of trees, thereby affecting the expression of temperature signals in tree-ring δ²H_LM. The novel results in this study provide a new perspective on permafrost degradation based on the dynamic responses of tree-ring δ²H_LM to source water δ²H during permafrost degradation.

Quantifying Northern High Latitude Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) Using Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS)

The northern high latitude (NHL, 40°N to 90°N) is where the second peak region of gross primary productivity (GPP) other than the tropics. The summer NHL GPP is about 80% of the tropical peak, but both regions are still highly uncertain (Norton et al. 2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019). Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides an important proxy for photosynthetic carbon uptake. Here we optimize the OCS plant uptake fluxes across the NHL by fitting atmospheric concentration simulation with the GEOS-CHEM global transport model to the aircraft profiles acquired over Alaska during NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (2012-2015). We use the empirical biome-specific linear relationship between OCS plant uptake flux and GPP to derive the six plant uptake OCS fluxes from different GPP data. Such GPP-based fluxes are used to drive the concentration simulations. We evaluate the simulations against the independent observations at two ground sites of Alaska. The optimized OCS fluxes suggest the NHL plant uptake OCS flux of -247 Gg S year^-1, about 25% stronger than the ensemble mean of the six GPP-based OCS fluxes. GPP-based OCS fluxes systematically underestimate the peak growing season across the NHL, while a subset of models predict early start of season in Alaska, consistent with previous studies of net ecosystem exchange. The OCS optimized GPP of 34 PgC yr^-1 for NHL is also about 25% more than the ensembles mean from six GPP data. Further work is needed to fully understand the environmental and biotic drivers and quantify their rate of photosynthetic carbon uptake in Arctic ecosystems.

Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying

Climate-driven permafrost thaw alters the strongly coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles within the Arctic tundra, influencing the availability of limiting nutrients including nitrate (NO3−). Researchers have identified two primary mechanisms that increase nitrogen and NO3− availability within permafrost soils: (1) the ‘frozen feast’, where previously frozen organic material becomes available as it thaws, and (2) ‘shrubification’, where expansion of nitrogen-fixing shrubs promotes increased soil nitrogen. Through the synthesis of original and previously published observational data, and the application of multiple geospatial approaches, this study investigates and highlights a third mechanism that increases NO3− availability: the hydrogeomorphic evolution of polygonal permafrost landscapes. Permafrost thaw drives changes in microtopography, increasing the drainage of topographic highs, thus increasing oxic conditions that promote NO3− production and accumulation. We extrapolate relationships between NO3− and soil moisture in elevated topographic features within our study area and the broader Alaskan Coastal Plain and investigate potential changes in NO3− availability in response to possible hydrogeomorphic evolution scenarios of permafrost landscapes. These approximations indicate that such changes could increase Arctic tundra NO3− availability by ~250–1000%. Thus, hydrogeomorphic changes that accompany continued permafrost degradation in polygonal permafrost landscapes will substantially increase soil pore water NO3− availability and boost future fertilization and productivity in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales

Enhanced warming in the Arctic (Arctic amplification, AA) in the last decades has been linked to several factors including sea ice and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, how these factors contributed to AA variations in a long-term perspective remains unclear. By reconstructing a millennial AA index combining climate model simulations with recently available proxy data, this work determines the important influences of the AMO and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing on AA variations in the last millennium, leading to identification of a significant downward trend of AA on top of a sustained strong AMO modulation at the multidecadal scales. The decreased AA during the industrial era was strongly associated with the anthropogenic forcing, proving the emerging role of the forcing in reducing the AA strength.

Reconstructed Arctic amplification shows a significant downward trend over the past millennium which can to a large part be explained by the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and recent anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.

Oceanographic and biogeochemical drivers cause divergent trends in the nitrogen isoscape in a changing Arctic Ocean

Nitrogen stable isotopes (δ15N) are used to study food web and foraging dynamics due to the step-wise enrichment of tissues with increasing trophic level, but they rely on the isoscape baseline that varies markedly in the Arctic due to the interplay between Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters. Using a hierarchy of simulations with a state-of-the-art ocean-biogeochemical model, we demonstrate that the canonical isotopic gradient of 2-3‰ between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic Ocean has grown to 3-4‰ and will continue to expand under a high emissions climate change scenario by the end of the twenty-first century. δ15N increases in the Pacific-influenced high Arctic due to increased primary production, while Atlantic sector decreases result from the integrated effects of Atlantic inflow and anthropogenic inputs. While these trends will complicate longitudinal food web studies using δ15N, they may aid those focussed on movement as the Arctic isoscape becomes more regionally distinct.

Untargeted Exometabolomics Provides a Powerful Approach to Investigate Biogeochemical Hotspots with Vegetation and Polygon Type in Arctic Tundra Soils

Rising temperatures in the Arctic have led to the thawing of tundra soils, which is rapidly changing terrain, hydrology, and plant and microbial communities, causing hotspots of biogeochemical activity across the landscape. Despite this, little is known about how nutrient-rich low molecular weight dissolved organic matter (LMW DOM) varies within and across tundra ecosystems. Using a high-resolution nano-liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) approach, we characterized the composition and availability of LMW DOM from high-centered polygons (HCP) and low-centered polygons (LCP) with Eriophorum angustifolium or Carex aquatilis as the dominant vegetation. Over 3000 unique features (i.e., discrete mass/charge ions) were detected; 521 were identified as differentially abundant between polygonal types and 217 were putatively annotated using high mass accuracy MS data. While polygon type was a strong predictor of LMW DOM composition and availability, vegetation and soil depth were also important drivers. Extensive evidence was found for enhanced microbial processing at the LCP sites, which were dominated by Carex plant species. We detected significant differences between polygon types with varying aboveground landscape features or properties, and hotspots of biogeochemical activity, indicating LMW DOM, as quantified by untargeted exometabolomics, provides a window into the dynamic complex interactions between landscape topography, vegetation, and organic matter cycling in Arctic polygonal tundra soils.

Environmental Controls on Microbial Diversity in Arctic Lakes of West Greenland

We assessed the microbial community structure of six arctic lakes in West Greenland and investigated relationships to lake physical and chemical characteristics. Lakes from the ice sheet region exhibited the highest species richness, while inland and plateau lakes had lower observed taxonomical diversity. Lake habitat differentiation during summer stratification appeared to alter within lake microbial community composition in only a subset of lakes, while lake variability across regions was a consistent driver of microbial community composition in these arctic lakes. Principal coordinate analysis revealed differentiation of communities along two axes: each reflecting differences in morphometric (lake surface area), geographic (latitude and distance from the ice sheet), physical lake variables (water clarity), and lakewater chemistry (dissolved organic carbon [DOC], dissolved oxygen [DO], total nitrogen [TN], and conductivity). Understanding these relationships between environmental variables and microbial communities is especially important as heterotrophic microorganisms are key to organic matter decomposition, nutrient cycling, and carbon flow through nutrient poor aquatic environments in the Arctic.

Multiple Ecosystem Effects of Extreme Weather Events in the Arctic

The Arctic is getting warmer and wetter. Here, we document two independent examples of how associated extreme precipitation patterns have severe implications for high Arctic ecosystems. The events stand out in a 23-year record of continuous observations of a wide range of ecosystem parameters and act as an early indication of conditions projected to increase in the future. In NE Greenland, August 2015, one-quarter of the average annual precipitation fell during a 9-day intensive rain event. This ranked number one for daily sums during the 1996–2018 period and caused a strong and prolonged reduction in solar radiation decreasing CO2 uptake in the order of 18–23 g C m−2, a reduction comparable to typical annual C budgets in Arctic tundra. In a different type of event, but also due to changed weather patterns, an extreme snow melt season in 2018 triggered a dramatic gully thermokarst causing rapid transformation in ecosystem functioning from consistent annual ecosystem CO2 uptake and low methane exchange to highly elevated methane release, net source of CO2, and substantial export of organic carbon downstream as riverine and coastal input. In addition to climate warming alone, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather patterns will have large implications for otherwise undisturbed tundra ecosystems including their element transport and carbon interactions with the atmosphere and ocean.

Responses of tundra soil microbial communities to half a decade of experimental warming at two critical depths

Northern-latitude tundra soils harbor substantial carbon (C) stocks that are highly susceptible to microbial degradation with rising global temperatures. Understanding the magnitude and direction (e.g., C release or sequestration) of the microbial responses to warming is necessary to accurately model climate change. In this study, Alaskan tundra soils were subjected to experimental in situ warming by ∼1.1 °C above ambient temperature, and the microbial communities were evaluated using metagenomics after 4.5 years, at 2 depths: 15 to 25 cm (active layer at outset of the experiment) and 45 to 55 cm (transition zone at the permafrost/active layer boundary at the outset of the experiment). In contrast to small or insignificant shifts after 1.5 years of warming, 4.5 years of warming resulted in significant changes to the abundances of functional traits and the corresponding taxa relative to control plots (no warming), and microbial shifts differed qualitatively between the two soil depths. At 15 to 25 cm, increased abundances of carbohydrate utilization genes were observed that correlated with (increased) measured ecosystem carbon respiration. At the 45- to 55-cm layer, increased methanogenesis potential was observed, which corresponded with a 3-fold increase in abundance of a single archaeal clade of the Methanosarcinales order, increased annual thaw duration (45.3 vs. 79.3 days), and increased CH₄ emissions. Collectively, these data demonstrate that the microbial responses to warming in tundra soil are rapid and markedly different between the 2 critical soil layers evaluated, and identify potential biomarkers for the corresponding microbial processes that could be important in modeling.

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio-environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high-latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time-series analysis of moderate-and high-resolution imagery was used to characterize land- and water-surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land-surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak-growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km² ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface-water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high-latitude regions.

Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate

BACKGROUND

Caribou in the Western Arctic Herd undertake one of the longest, remaining intact migrations of terrestrial mammals in the world. They are also the most important subsistence resource for many northern rural residents, who rely on the caribou's migratory movements to bring them near for harvest. Migratory geography has never been static, but subsistence harvesters have reported recent shifts in migration away from areas where they traditionally occurred. The reasons behind these changes are not well-understood, but may be related to rapid climate change and anthropogenic disturbances.

METHODS

To predict changes in distribution and shifting migratory areas over the past decade, we used GPS telemetry data from adult females to develop predictive ecological niche models of caribou across northwestern Alaska. We employed the machine-learning algorithm, TreeNet, to analyze interactive, multivariate relationships between telemetry locations and 37 spatial environmental layers and to predict the distributions of caribou during spring, calving season, insect-harassment season, late summer, fall, and winter from 2009 to 2017. Model results were analyzed to identify regions of repeated predicted use, quantify mean longitude, predict land cover selection, and track migratory changes over time.

RESULTS

Distribution models accurately predicted caribou at a spatially-explicit, 500-m scale. Model analyses identified migratory areas that shifted annually across the region, but which predicted 4 main areas of repeated use. Niche models were defined largely by non-linear relationships with coastally-influenced, climatic variables, especially snow-free date, potential evapo-transpiration, growing season length, proximity to sea ice, winter precipitation and fall temperature. Proximity to roads and communities were also important and we predicted caribou to generally occur more than 20-100 km from these features.

CONCLUSIONS

Western Arctic Herd caribou were predicted to occur in warmer, snow-free and treeless areas that may provide conditions conducive for efficient travel and foraging. Rapidly changing seasonal climates and coastal influences that determine forage availability, and human impediments that slow or divert movements are related to geographically and phenologically dynamic migration patterns that may periodically shift caribou away from traditional harvest areas. An enhanced understanding of the geographic behavior of caribou over time could inform traditional harvests and help conserve important Western Arctic caribou migratory areas.

Landscape Change Detected over a Half Century in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Using High-Resolution Aerial Imagery

Rapid warming has occurred over the past 50 years in Arctic Alaska, where temperature strongly affects ecological patterns and processes. To document landscape change over a half century in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, we visually interpreted geomorphic and vegetation changes on time series of coregistered high-resolution imagery. We used aerial photographs for two time periods, 1947–1955 and 1978–1988, and Quick Bird and IKONOS satellite images for a third period, 2000–2007. The stratified random sample had five sites in each of seven ecoregions, with a systematic grid of 100 points per site. At each point in each time period, we recorded vegetation type, microtopography, and surface water. Change types were then assigned based on differences detected between the images. Overall, 23% of the points underwent some type of change over the ~50-year study period. Weighted by area of each ecoregion, we estimated that 18% of the Refuge had changed. The most common changes were wildfire and postfire succession, shrub and tree increase in the absence of fire, river erosion and deposition, and ice-wedge degradation. Ice-wedge degradation occurred mainly in the Tundra Biome, shrub increase and river changes in the Mountain Biome, and fire and postfire succession in the Boreal Biome. Changes in the Tundra Biome tended to be related to landscape wetting, mainly from increased wet troughs caused by ice-wedge degradation. The Boreal Biome tended to have changes associated with landscape drying, including recent wildfire, lake area decrease, and land surface drying. The second time interval, after ~1982, coincided with accelerated climate warming and had slightly greater rates of change.

Characterization of iron oxide nanoparticle films at the air-water interface in Arctic tundra waters

Massive amounts of organic carbon have accumulated in Arctic permafrost and soils due to anoxic and low temperature conditions that limit aerobic microbial respiration. Alternative electron acceptors are thus required for microbes to degrade organic carbon in these soils. Iron or iron oxides have been recognized to play an important role in carbon cycle processes in Arctic soils, although the exact form and role as an electron acceptor or donor remain poorly understood. Here, Arctic biofilms collected during the summers of 2016 and 2017 from tundra surface waters on the Seward Peninsula of western Alaska were characterized with a suite of microscopic and spectroscopic methods. We hypothesized that these films contain redox-active minerals bound to biological polymers. The major components of the films were found to be iron oxide nanoparticle aggregates associated with extracellular polymeric substances. The observed mineral phases varied between films collected in different years with magnetite (Fe²⁺Fe₂³⁺O₄) nanoparticles (<5nm) predominantly identified in the 2016 films, while for films collected in 2017 ferrihydrite-like amorphous iron oxyhydroxides were found. While the exact formation mechanism of these Artic iron oxide films remains to be explored, the presence of magnetite and other iron oxide/oxyhydroxide nanoparticles at the air-water interface may represent a previously unknown source of electron acceptors for continual anaerobic microbial respiration of organic carbon within poorly drained Arctic tundra.

Spring photosynthetic onset and net CO2 uptake in Alaska triggered by landscape thawing

The springtime transition to regional-scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze-thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO₂ from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape thaw in boreal forests typically occurs in late April (DOY 111 ± 7) with a 29 ± 6 day lag until photosynthetic onset. North Slope tundra thaws 3 weeks later (DOY 133 ± 5) but experiences only a 20 ± 5 day lag until photosynthetic onset. These time lag differences reflect efficient cold season adaptation in tundra shrub and the longer dehardening period for boreal evergreens. Despite the short transition from thaw to photosynthetic onset in tundra, synchrony of tundra respiration with snow melt and landscape thaw delays the transition from net carbon loss (at photosynthetic onset) to net uptake by 13 ± 7 days, thus reducing the tundra net carbon uptake period. Two global CO₂ inversions using a CASA-GFED model prior estimate earlier northern high latitude net carbon uptake compared to our regional inversion, which we attribute to (i) early photosynthetic-onset model prior bias, (ii) inverse method (scaling factor + optimization window), and (iii) sparsity of available Alaskan CO₂ observations. Another global inversion with zero prior estimates the same timing for net carbon uptake as the regional model but smaller seasonal amplitude. The analysis of Alaskan eddy covariance observations confirms regional scale findings for tundra, but indicates that photosynthesis and net carbon uptake occur up to 1 month earlier in evergreens than captured by models or CO₂ inversions, with better correlation to above-freezing air temperature than date of primary thaw. Further collection and analysis of boreal evergreen species over multiple years and at additional subarctic flux towers are critically needed.

Accelerating rates of Arctic carbon cycling revealed by long-term atmospheric CO2 measurements

The contemporary Arctic carbon balance is uncertain, and the potential for a permafrost carbon feedback of anywhere from 50 to 200 petagrams of carbon (Schuur et al., 2015) compromises accurate 21st-century global climate system projections. The 42-year record of atmospheric CO₂ measurements at Barrow, Alaska (71.29 N, 156.79 W), reveals significant trends in regional land-surface CO₂ anomalies (ΔCO₂), indicating long-term changes in seasonal carbon uptake and respiration. Using a carbon balance model constrained by ΔCO₂, we find a 13.4% decrease in mean carbon residence time (50% confidence range = 9.2 to 17.6%) in North Slope tundra ecosystems during the past four decades, suggesting a transition toward a boreal carbon cycling regime. Temperature dependencies of respiration and carbon uptake suggest that increases in cold season Arctic labile carbon release will likely continue to exceed increases in net growing season carbon uptake under continued warming trends.

Differential declines in Alaskan boreal forest vitality related to climate and competition

Rapid warming and changes in water availability at high latitudes alter resource abundance, tree competition, and disturbance regimes. While these changes are expected to disrupt the functioning of boreal forests, their ultimate implications for forest composition are uncertain. In particular, recent site-level studies of the Alaskan boreal forest have reported both increases and decreases in productivity over the past few decades. Here, we test the idea that variations in Alaskan forest growth and mortality rates are contingent on species composition. Using forest inventory measurements and climate data from plots located throughout interior and south-central Alaska, we show significant growth and mortality responses associated with competition, midsummer vapor pressure deficit, and increased growing season length. The governing climate and competition processes differed substantially across species. Surprisingly, the most dramatic climate response occurred in the drought tolerant angiosperm species, trembling aspen, and linked high midsummer vapor pressure deficits to decreased growth and increased insect-related mortality. Given that species composition in the Alaskan and western Canadian boreal forests is projected to shift toward early-successional angiosperm species due to fire regime, these results underscore the potential for a reduction in boreal productivity stemming from increases in midsummer evaporative demand.

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km² ), are influencing and will influence state-wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950-2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (-6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO₂ , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO₂ increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO₂ sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.

Inland waters and their role in the carbon cycle of Alaska

The magnitude of Alaska (AK) inland waters carbon (C) fluxes is likely to change in the future due to amplified climate warming impacts on the hydrology and biogeochemical processes in high latitude regions. Although current estimates of major aquatic C fluxes represent an essential baseline against which future change can be compared, a comprehensive assessment for AK has not yet been completed. To address this gap, we combined available data sets and applied consistent methodologies to estimate river lateral C export to the coast, river and lake carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) and methane (CH₄ ) emissions, and C burial in lakes for the six major hydrologic regions in the state. Estimated total aquatic C flux for AK was 41 Tg C/yr. Major components of this total flux, in Tg C/yr, were 18 for river lateral export, 17 for river CO₂ emissions, and 8 for lake CO₂ emissions. Lake C burial offset these fluxes by 2 Tg C/yr. River and lake CH₄ emissions were 0.03 and 0.10 Tg C/yr, respectively. The Southeast and South central regions had the highest temperature, precipitation, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and C yields (fluxes normalized to land area) were 77 and 42 g C·m^-2 ·yr^-1 , respectively. Lake CO₂ emissions represented over half of the total aquatic flux from the Southwest (37 g C·m^-2 ·yr^-1 ). The North Slope, Northwest, and Yukon regions had lesser yields (11, 15, and 17 g C·m² ·yr^-1 ), but these estimates may be the most vulnerable to future climate change, because of the heightened sensitivity of arctic and boreal ecosystems to intensified warming. Total aquatic C yield for AK was 27 g C·m^-2 ·yr^-1 , which represented 16% of the estimated terrestrial NPP. Freshwater ecosystems represent a significant conduit for C loss, and a more comprehensive view of land-water-atmosphere interactions is necessary to predict future climate change impacts on the Alaskan ecosystem C balance.

A gradient of nutrient enrichment reveals nonlinear impacts of fertilization on Arctic plant diversity and ecosystem function

Rapid environmental change at high latitudes is predicted to greatly alter the diversity, structure, and function of plant communities, resulting in changes in the pools and fluxes of nutrients. In Arctic tundra, increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability accompanying warming is known to impact plant diversity and ecosystem function; however, to date, most studies examining Arctic nutrient enrichment focus on the impact of relatively large (>25x estimated naturally occurring N enrichment) doses of nutrients on plant community composition and net primary productivity. To understand the impacts of Arctic nutrient enrichment, we examined plant community composition and the capacity for ecosystem function (net ecosystem exchange, ecosystem respiration, and gross primary production) across a gradient of experimental N and P addition expected to more closely approximate warming-induced fertilization. In addition, we compared our measured ecosystem CO ₂ flux data to a widely used Arctic ecosystem exchange model to investigate the ability to predict the capacity for CO ₂ exchange with nutrient addition. We observed declines in abundance-weighted plant diversity at low levels of nutrient enrichment, but species richness and the capacity for ecosystem carbon uptake did not change until the highest level of fertilization. When we compared our measured data to the model, we found that the model explained roughly 30%-50% of the variance in the observed data, depending on the flux variable, and the relationship weakened at high levels of enrichment. Our results suggest that while a relatively small amount of nutrient enrichment impacts plant diversity, only relatively large levels of fertilization-over an order of magnitude or more than warming-induced rates-significantly alter the capacity for tundra CO ₂ exchange. Overall, our findings highlight the value of measuring and modeling the impacts of a nutrient enrichment gradient, as warming-related nutrient availability may impact ecosystems differently than single-level fertilization experiments.

The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland

The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm.

Colonization of a Deglaciated Moraine: Contrasting Patterns of Carbon Uptake and Release from C3 and CAM Plants

INTRODUCTION

Current glacier retreat makes vast mountain ranges available for vegetation establishment and growth. As a result, carbon (C) is accumulated in the soil, in a negative feedback to climate change. Little is known about the effective C budget of these new ecosystems and how the presence of different vegetation communities influences CO2 fluxes.

METHODS

On the Matsch glacier forefield (Alps, Italy) we measured over two growing seasons the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of a typical grassland, dominated by the C3 Festuca halleri All., and a community dominated by the CAM rosettes Sempervivum montanum L. Using transparent and opaque chambers, with air temperature as the driver, we partitioned NEE to calculate Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) and Gross Ecosystem Exchange (GEE). In addition, soil and vegetation samples were collected from the same sites to estimate the Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB).

RESULTS

The two communities showed contrasting GEE but similar Reco patterns, and as a result they were significantly different in NEE during the period measured. The grassland acted as a C sink, with a total cumulated value of -46.4±35.5 g C m-2 NEE, while the plots dominated by the CAM rosettes acted as a source, with 31.9±22.4 g C m-2. In spite of the different NEE, soil analysis did not reveal significant differences in carbon accumulation of the two plant communities (1770±130 for F. halleri and 2080±230 g C m-2 for S. montanum), suggesting that processes often neglected, like lateral flows and winter respiration, can have a similar relevance as NEE in the determination of the Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance.

Biogeochemistry of "pristine" freshwater stream and lake systems in the western Canadian Arctic

Climate change poses a substantial threat to the stability of the Arctic terrestrial carbon (C) pool as warmer air temperatures thaw permafrost and deepen the seasonally-thawed active layer of soils and sediments. Enhanced water flow through this layer may accelerate the transport of C and major cations and anions to streams and lakes. These act as important conduits and reactors for dissolved C within the terrestrial C cycle. It is important for studies to consider these processes in small headwater catchments, which have been identified as hotspots of rapid mineralisation of C sourced from ancient permafrost thaw. In order to better understand the role of inland waters in terrestrial C cycling we characterised the biogeochemistry of the freshwater systems in a c. 14 km² study area in the western Canadian Arctic. Sampling took place during the snow-free seasons of 2013 and 2014 for major inorganic solutes, dissolved organic and inorganic C (DOC and DIC, respectively), carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) concentrations from three water type groups: lakes, polygonal pools and streams. These groups displayed differing biogeochemical signatures, indicative of contrasting biogeochemical controls. However, none of the groups showed strong signals of enhanced permafrost thaw during the study seasons. The mean annual air temperature in the region has increased by more than 2.5 °C since 1970, and continued warming will likely affect the aquatic biogeochemistry. This study provides important baseline data for comparison with future studies in a warming Arctic.

Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra

Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.

Spatial and temporal variation of an ice-adapted predator's feeding ecology in a changing Arctic marine ecosystem

Spatial and temporal variation can confound interpretations of relationships within and between species in terms of diet composition, niche size, and trophic position (TP). The cause of dietary variation within species is commonly an ontogenetic niche shift, which is a key dynamic influencing community structure. We quantified spatial and temporal variations in ringed seal (Pusa hispida) diet, niche size, and TP during ontogeny across the Arctic-a rapidly changing ecosystem. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis was performed on 558 liver and 630 muscle samples from ringed seals and on likely prey species from five locations ranging from the High to the Low Arctic. A modest ontogenetic diet shift occurred, with adult ringed seals consuming more forage fish (approximately 80 versus 60 %) and having a higher TP than subadults, which generally decreased with latitude. However, the degree of shift varied spatially, with adults in the High Arctic presenting a more restricted niche size and consuming more Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) than subadults (87 versus 44 %) and adults at the lowest latitude (29 %). The TPs of adult and subadult ringed seals generally decreased with latitude (4.7-3.3), which was mainly driven by greater complexity in trophic structure within the zooplankton communities. Adult isotopic niche size increased over time, likely due to the recent circumpolar increases in subarctic forage fish distribution and abundance. Given the spatial and temporal variability in ringed seal foraging ecology, ringed seals exhibit dietary plasticity as a species, suggesting adaptability in terms of their diet to climate change.

Genomics in a changing arctic: critical questions await the molecular ecologist

Molecular ecology is poised to tackle a host of interesting questions in the coming years. The Arctic provides a unique and rapidly changing environment with a suite of emerging research needs that can be addressed through genetics and genomics. Here we highlight recent research on boreal and tundra ecosystems and put forth a series of questions related to plant and microbial responses to climate change that can benefit from technologies and analytical approaches contained within the molecular ecologist's toolbox. These questions include understanding (i) the mechanisms of plant acquisition and uptake of N in cold soils, (ii) how these processes are mediated by root traits, (iii) the role played by the plant microbiome in cycling C and nutrients within high-latitude ecosystems and (iv) plant adaptation to extreme Arctic climates. We highlight how contributions can be made in these areas through studies that target model and nonmodel organisms and emphasize that the sequencing of the Populus and Salix genomes provides a valuable resource for scientific discoveries related to the plant microbiome and plant adaptation in the Arctic. Moreover, there exists an exciting role to play in model development, including incorporating genetic and evolutionary knowledge into ecosystem and Earth System Models. In this regard, the molecular ecologist provides a valuable perspective on plant genetics as a driver for community biodiversity, and how ecological and evolutionary forces govern community dynamics in a rapidly changing climate.

An active atmospheric methane sink in high Arctic mineral cryosols

Methane (CH4) emission by carbon-rich cryosols at the high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere has been studied extensively. In contrast, data on the CH4 emission potential of carbon-poor cryosols is limited, despite their spatial predominance. This work employs CH4 flux measurements in the field and under laboratory conditions to show that the mineral cryosols at Axel Heiberg Island in the Canadian high Arctic consistently consume atmospheric CH4. Omics analyses present the first molecular evidence of active atmospheric CH4-oxidizing bacteria (atmMOB) in permafrost-affected cryosols, with the prevalent atmMOB genotype in our acidic mineral cryosols being closely related to Upland Soil Cluster α. The atmospheric (atm) CH4 uptake at the study site increases with ground temperature between 0 °C and 18 °C. Consequently, the atm CH4 sink strength is predicted to increase by a factor of 5-30 as the Arctic warms by 5-15 °C over a century. We demonstrate that acidic mineral cryosols are a previously unrecognized potential of CH4 sink that requires further investigation to determine its potential impact on larger scales. This study also calls attention to the poleward distribution of atmMOB, as well as to the potential influence of microbial atm CH4 oxidation, in the context of regional CH4 flux models and global warming.

Environmental and vegetation controls on the spatial variability of CH4 emission from wet-sedge and tussock tundra ecosystems in the Arctic

AIMS

Despite multiple studies investigating the environmental controls on CH₄ fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems, the high spatial variability of CH₄ emissions is not fully understood. This makes the upscaling of CH₄ fluxes from plot to regional scale, particularly challenging. The goal of this study is to refine our knowledge of the spatial variability and controls on CH₄ emission from tundra ecosystems.

METHODS

CH₄ fluxes were measured in four sites across a variety of wet-sedge and tussock tundra ecosystems in Alaska using chambers and a Los Gatos CO₂ and CH₄ gas analyser.

RESULTS

All sites were found to be sources of CH₄, with northern sites (in Barrow) showing similar CH₄ emission rates to the southernmost site (ca. 300 km south, Ivotuk). Gross primary productivity (GPP), water level and soil temperature were the most important environmental controls on CH₄ emission. Greater vascular plant cover was linked with higher CH₄ emission, but this increased emission with increased vascular plant cover was much higher (86 %) in the drier sites, than the wettest sites (30 %), suggesting that transport and/or substrate availability were crucial limiting factors for CH₄ emission in these tundra ecosystems.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, this study provides an increased understanding of the fine scale spatial controls on CH₄ flux, in particular the key role that plant cover and GPP play in enhancing CH₄ emissions from tundra soils.

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host-pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems

BACKGROUND

Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models.

SCOPE

Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modellers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review, the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current and future distribution of vegetation.

CONCLUSIONS

Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially below-ground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology and remote sensing will be required if we are to overcome these and other shortcomings.