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Ji H, Li K, Shang M, Wang Z, Liu Q. The 2016 Severe Floods and Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome in the Yangtze River Basin. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e2429682. [PMID: 39172449 PMCID: PMC11342140 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.29682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 06/28/2024] [Indexed: 08/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a neglected zoonotic disease, has received only short-term attention in postflood prevention and control initiatives, possibly because of a lack of evidence regarding the long-term association of flooding with HFRS. Objectives To quantify the association between severe floods and long-term incidence of HFRS in the Yangtze River basin and to examine the modifying role of geographical factors in this association. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study collected data on HFRS cases between July 1, 2013, and June 30, 2019, from 58 cities in 4 provinces (Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi) in the Yangtze River basin of China, with a breakpoint of flooding in July 2016, generating monthly data. The 3 years after July 2016 were defined as the postflood period, while the 3 years before the breakpoint were defined as the control period. Statistical analysis was performed from October to December 2023. Exposures City-level monthly flooding, elevation, ruggedness index, and closest distance from each city to the Yangtze River and its tributaries. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcomes were the number of city-level monthly HFRS cases and the number of type 1 (spring or summer) and type 2 (autumn or winter) HFRS cases. Results A total of 11 745 patients with HFRS were reported during the study period: 5216 patients (mean [SD] age, 47.1 [16.2] years; 3737 men [71.6%]) in the control period and 6529 patients (mean [SD] age, 49.8 [15.8] years; 4672 men [71.6%]) in the postflood period. The pooled effects of interrupted time series analysis indicated a long-term association between flooding and HFRS incidence (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13-1.68), with type 1 cases being at highest risk (odds ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.40-2.09). The metaregression results indicated that elevation and ruggedness index were negatively associated with the risk of HFRS, while the distance to rivers interacted with these associations. Conclusions and Relevance This cross-sectional study of the long-term association between flooding and HFRS incidence, as well as the modification effects of geographical factors, suggests that severe floods were associated with an increased risk of HFRS within 3 years. This study provides evidence for the development of HFRS prevention and control strategies after floods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoqiang Ji
- Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ke Li
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Meng Shang
- Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhenxu Wang
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Changping District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
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Polat C, Erdin M, Kalkan ŞO, Irmak S, Çetintaş O, Çolak F, Kalkan KK, Çoğal M, Ölgen K, Sözen M, Matur F, Öktem İMA. Evaluating climate-dependent distribution of orthohantaviruses with monitoring wild rodents: One Health Perspective †. Braz J Microbiol 2024:10.1007/s42770-024-01447-2. [PMID: 39012426 DOI: 10.1007/s42770-024-01447-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2024] [Accepted: 06/29/2024] [Indexed: 07/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Orthohantaviruses, cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, nephropathia epidemica, and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, are major public health problems all over the world. Wild rodent surveillance for orthohantaviruses is of great importance for the preparedness against these human infections and the prediction of possible outbreak regions. Thus, we aimed to screen orthohantaviruses in wild rodents in Southern Anatolia, where the area has some of the glacial period refugia in the Mediterranean Basin, and interpret their current epidemiology with climatic biovariables in comparison with previously positive regions.We trapped muroid rodents between 2015 and 2017, and screened for orthohantaviruses. Then, we evaluated the relationship between orthohantavirus infections and bioclimatic variables. In spite of the long-term and seasonal sampling, we found no evidence for Orthohantavirus infections. The probable absence of orthohantaviruses in the sampling area was further evaluated from the climatic perspective, and results led us suggest that Orthohantavirus epidemiology might be relatively dependent on precipitation levels in driest and warmest quarters, and temperature fluctuations.These initial data might provide necessary perspective on wild rodent surveillance for orthohantaviruses in other regions, and help to collect lacking data for a such habitat suitability study in a bigger scale in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ceylan Polat
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Institute of Health Sciences, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Türkiye.
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Türkiye.
| | - Mert Erdin
- Department of Virology, Medicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Şaban Orçun Kalkan
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Acıbadem Mehmet Ali Aydınlar University, Istanbul, Türkiye
| | - Sercan Irmak
- Science and Technology Application and Research Center, Balıkesir University, Balıkesir, Türkiye
| | - Ortaç Çetintaş
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye
| | - Faruk Çolak
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye
| | - Kürşat Kenan Kalkan
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye
| | - Muhsin Çoğal
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye
| | - Kirami Ölgen
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters, Ege University, Izmir, Türkiye
| | - Mustafa Sözen
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye
| | - Ferhat Matur
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Türkiye
| | - İbrahim Mehmet Ali Öktem
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Institute of Health Sciences, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Türkiye.
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Gómez Villafañe IE, Bellomo CM, Rospide M, Blanco P, Coelho R, Alonso DO, Arnica D, Sanchez Loria J, Figini I, Campos J, Martínez VP, Orozco MM. Filling the gaps in the Argentinian distribution of orthohantavirus: First finding of Lechiguanas virus in rodents from Corrientes, Argentina. Zoonoses Public Health 2024; 71:210-216. [PMID: 37772451 DOI: 10.1111/zph.13079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023]
Abstract
Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by orthohantaviruses in the Americas. In Argentina, since 1995, several reservoirs and virus variants have been described, but the northeastern and central endemic zones in the country include an area without human or rodent infections, despite sharing rodent species with areas with that disease. The aim of this study was to search for orthohantavirus in rodent communities that inhabit this area, which borders two endemic areas of HPS. Small rodents were captured in June of 2022 through a total effort of 644 trap nights distributed in five grids located in the Iberá National Park, Corrientes, Northeastern Argentina. All rodents were sexed, weighed, and the species was recorded. Blood samples were extracted to detect ANDV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG), and to extract the RNA virus. Trimmed sequences were mapped against reference sequences from GenBank. We captured a total of 36 Oligoryzomys flavescens and 15 Oxymycterus rufus. We detected the O. flavescens species infected with Lechiguanas orthohantavirus in the camping area of the National Park. A nucleotide comparison with previously published sequences shows a 98.34% similarity to the virus obtained from a human case of HPS reported in the adjacent Misiones province. This study demonstrated, for the first time, that O. flavescens is a host of the Lechiguanas orthohantavirus in this zone and contributes to closing information gaps on the distribution of orthohantavirus in Argentina. Additionally, the high similarity with the hantavirus found in the human case of Misiones suggests that the reservoir in that province would also be O. flavescens (not previously confirmed). This information permits us to focus on the preventive measurements to protect the human population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel E Gómez Villafañe
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución (Conicet-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Carla M Bellomo
- Laboratorio de Hantavirus, Servicio de Biología Molecular, Departamento de Virología, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas, ANLIS Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Malena Rospide
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución (Conicet-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Paula Blanco
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución (Conicet-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Rocío Coelho
- Laboratorio de Hantavirus, Servicio de Biología Molecular, Departamento de Virología, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas, ANLIS Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Daniel O Alonso
- Laboratorio de Hantavirus, Servicio de Biología Molecular, Departamento de Virología, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas, ANLIS Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Diana Arnica
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución (Conicet-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Julián Sanchez Loria
- Unidad Centro de Genómica y Bioinformática, ANLIS Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Iara Figini
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución (Conicet-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Josefina Campos
- Unidad Centro de Genómica y Bioinformática, ANLIS Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Valeria P Martínez
- Laboratorio de Hantavirus, Servicio de Biología Molecular, Departamento de Virología, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas, ANLIS Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - María Marcela Orozco
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución (Conicet-UBA), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Calfayan LM, Cavia R, Fraschina J, Guidobono JS, Gorosito IL, Busch M. Environmental drivers of long-term variations in the abundance of the red hocicudo mouse (Oxymycterus rufus) in Pampas agroecosystems. Integr Zool 2024; 19:37-51. [PMID: 37243424 DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
During the 20th century, there has been an ongoing agricultural expansion and global warming, two of the main determinants influencing biodiversity changes in Argentina. The red hocicudo mouse (Oxymycterus rufus) inhabits subtropical grasslands and riparian habitats and has increased its abundance in recent years in central Argentina agroecosystems. This paper describes the long-term temporal changes in O. rufus abundance in Exaltación de la Cruz department, Buenos Aires province, Argentina, in relation to weather fluctuations and landscape features, as well as analyzes the spatio-temporal structure of captures of animals. We used generalized liner models, semivariograms, the Mantel test, and autocorrelation functions for the analysis of rodent data obtained from trappings conducted between 1984 and 2014. O. rufus showed an increase in abundance across the years of study, with its distribution depending on landscape features, such as habitat types and the distance to floodplains. Capture rates showed a spatio-temporal aggregation, suggesting expansion from previously occupied sites. O. rufus was more abundant at lower minimum temperatures in summer, higher precipitation in spring and summer, and lower precipitations in winter. Weather conditions affected O. rufus abundance, but there was local variation that differed from global patterns of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Mariel Calfayan
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Poblaciones, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires and Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Regino Cavia
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Poblaciones, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires and Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Jimena Fraschina
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Poblaciones, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires and Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Juan Santiago Guidobono
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Poblaciones, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires and Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Irene Laura Gorosito
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Poblaciones, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires and Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - María Busch
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Poblaciones, Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires and Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires (IEGEBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Begou P, Kassomenos P. The ecosyndemic framework of the global environmental change and the COVID-19 pandemic. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 857:159327. [PMID: 36220476 PMCID: PMC9547397 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Revised: 09/03/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The ecosyndemic theory combines the concept of 'synergy' with 'epidemic' and the term "eco" implies the role of the environmental changes. Each of the conditions enhances the negative impacts of the other in an additive way making our society more vulnerable and heightening individual risk factors. In this study, we analyze the mutually reinforcing links between the environment and health from the complexity angle of the ecosyndemic theory and propose the characterization of the COVID-19 pandemic as ecosyndemic. We use the term 'ecosyndemic' because the global environmental change contributes to local-scale, regional-scale and global-scale alterations of the Earth's systems. These changes have their root causes in the way that people interact with the physical, chemical, and biotic factors of the environment. These interactions disturb nature and the consequences have feedbacks in every living organism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paraskevi Begou
- Laboratory of Meteorology and Climatology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece.
| | - Pavlos Kassomenos
- Laboratory of Meteorology and Climatology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece
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Meteorological change and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in China, 2004-2018. Sci Rep 2022; 12:20037. [PMID: 36414682 PMCID: PMC9681842 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23945-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Accepted: 11/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), caused by hantavirus, is a serious public health problem in China. Despite intensive countermeasures including Patriotic Health Campaign, rodent control and vaccination in affected areas, HFRS is still a potential public health threat in China, with more than 10,000 new cases per year. Previous epidemiological evidence suggested that meteorological factors could influence HFRS incidence, but the studies were mainly limited to a specific city or region in China. This study aims to evaluate the association between monthly HFRS cases and meteorological change at the country level using a multivariate distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) from 2004 to 2018. The results from both univariate and multivariate models showed a non-linear cumulative relative risk relationship between meteorological factors (with a lag of 0-6 months) such as mean temperature (Tmean), precipitation, relative humidity (RH), sunshine hour (SH), wind speed (WS) and HFRS incidence. The risk for HFRS cases increased steeply as the Tmean between - 23 and 14.79 °C, SH between 179.4 and 278.4 h and RH remaining above 69% with 50-95 mm precipitation and 1.70-2.00 m/s WS. In conclusion, meteorological factors such as Tmean and RH showed delayed-effects on the increased risk of HFRS in the study and the lag varies across climate factors. Temperature with a lag of 6 months (RR = 3.05) and precipitation with a lag of 0 months (RR = 2.08) had the greatest impact on the incidence of HFRS.
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Semenza JC, Rocklöv J, Ebi KL. Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease. Infect Dis Ther 2022; 11:1371-1390. [PMID: 35585385 PMCID: PMC9334478 DOI: 10.1007/s40121-022-00647-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 04/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large. We review climatic and other cascading drivers of infectious disease with projections under different climate change scenarios. Supplementary file1 (MP4 328467 KB).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 87, Umeå, Sweden
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 205, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
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Sipari S, Khalil H, Magnusson M, Evander M, Hörnfeldt B, Ecke F. Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen. AMBIO 2022; 51:508-517. [PMID: 34228253 PMCID: PMC8800963 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01594-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2021] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 06/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980-1986 and 2003-2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saana Sipari
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd, 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Hussein Khalil
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd, 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Magnus Magnusson
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd, 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Magnus Evander
- Umeå University, Department of Clinical Microbiology, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Birger Hörnfeldt
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd, 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Frauke Ecke
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgränd, 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
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Štrbac M, Vuković V, Patić A, Medić S, Pustahija T, Petrović V, Lendak D, Ličina MK, Bakić M, Protić J, Pranjić N, Jandrić L, Sokolovska N, Ristić M. Epidemiological study on the incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in five Western Balkan countries for a 10-year period: 2006-2015. Zoonoses Public Health 2022; 69:195-206. [PMID: 34989483 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Revised: 12/20/2021] [Accepted: 12/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Large-scale epidemics of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) have been reported mostly in Asia and Europe, with around 100,000 people affected each year. In the Southeast Europe, Balkan region, HFRS is endemic disease with approximately 100 cases per year. Our aim was to describe epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in five Western Balkan (WB) countries and to describe correlation between HFRS incidence and major meteorological event that hit the area in May 2014. METHODS National surveillance data of HFRS from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia obtained from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2015 were collected and analysed. RESULTS In a 10-year period, a total of 1,065 HFRS patients were reported in five WB countries. Cumulative incidence rate ranged from 0.05 to 15.80 per 100.000 inhabitants (in North Macedonia and Montenegro respectively). Increasing number of HFRS cases was reported with a peak incidence in three specific years (2008, 2012, and 2014). Average incidence for the entire area was higher in males than females (5.63 and 1.90 per 100.000 inhabitants respectively). Summer was the season with the highest number of cases and an average incidence rate of 1.74/100.000 inhabitants across 10-year period. Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence was significantly increased (7.91/100.000 inhabitants) in 2014, when a few months earlier, severe floods affected several WB countries. A strong significant negative correlation (r = -.84, p < .01) between the monthly incidence of HFRS and the number of months after May's floods was demonstrated for the total area of WB. CONCLUSION Our findings demonstrate that the HFRS incidence had similar distribution (general, age, sex and seasonality) across majority of the included countries. Summer was the season with the highest recorded incidence. Common epidemic years were detected in all observed countries as well as a negative correlation between the monthly incidence of HFRS and the number of months after May's cyclone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mirjana Štrbac
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Vladimir Vuković
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Aleksandra Patić
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Snežana Medić
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | | | - Vladimir Petrović
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Dajana Lendak
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia.,Clinic for Infectious Diseases Clinical Centre of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | | | - Marijan Bakić
- Institute of Public Health of Montenegro, Podgorica, Montenegro
| | - Jelena Protić
- Institute of Virology, Vaccines, and Serums 'Torlak', Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Nurka Pranjić
- Medical School, University of Tuzla, Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Ljubica Jandrić
- Public Health Institute of the Republic of Srpska, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Nikolina Sokolovska
- Laboratory of Entomology, Department of Epidemiology, PHO Center for Public Health, Skopje, North Macedonia
| | - Mioljub Ristić
- Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina, Novi Sad, Serbia.,Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia
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10
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Wearable body sensor network: SDGs panacea for an holistic SARS-CoV-2 mitigation, diagnostic, therapeutic, and health informatics interventions. COVID-19 AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 2022. [PMCID: PMC9335063 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-91307-2.00010-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic offers enormous potential for digital health solutions, with social distancing being the only current approach that has thus far been established to reduce the risk. Wearable Activity Tracker (WATs) is an appealing, successful, and inexpensive choice in this context. This technology is of vital significance in ensuring the well-being of both patients and healthcare professionals following sustainable development goals. The application of technological interventions will in no doubt help in tackling the debilitating effect of health emergencies in the world population. However, there is a shortage of literature explaining the programming resources needed to effectively treat this novel infection which is briefly addressed in this review. This study prominently addressed the potential of wearable Activity Tracker as a technological solution to healthcare disaster management.
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11
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Douglas KO, Payne K, Sabino-Santos G, Agard J. Influence of Climatic Factors on Human Hantavirus Infections in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Systematic Review. Pathogens 2021; 11:pathogens11010015. [PMID: 35055965 PMCID: PMC8778283 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens11010015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Revised: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With the current climate change crisis and its influence on infectious disease transmission there is an increased desire to understand its impact on infectious diseases globally. Hantaviruses are found worldwide, causing infectious diseases such as haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS)/hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in tropical regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). These regions are inherently vulnerable to climate change impacts, infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters. Hantaviruses are zoonotic viruses present in multiple rodent hosts resident in Neotropical ecosystems within LAC and are involved in hantavirus transmission. METHODS We conducted a systematic review to assess the association of climatic factors with human hantavirus infections in the LAC region. Literature searches were conducted on MEDLINE and Web of Science databases for published studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The inclusion criteria included at least eight human hantavirus cases, at least one climatic factor and study from > 1 LAC geographical location. RESULTS In total, 383 papers were identified within the search criteria, but 13 studies met the inclusion criteria ranging from Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Panama in Latin America and a single study from Barbados in the Caribbean. Multiple mathematical models were utilized in the selected studies with varying power to generate robust risk and case estimates of human hantavirus infections linked to climatic factors. Strong evidence of hantavirus disease association with precipitation and habitat type factors were observed, but mixed evidence was observed for temperature and humidity. CONCLUSIONS The interaction of climate and hantavirus diseases in LAC is likely complex due to the unknown identity of all vertebrate host reservoirs, circulation of multiple hantavirus strains, agricultural practices, climatic changes and challenged public health systems. There is an increasing need for more detailed systematic research on the influence of climate and other co-related social, abiotic, and biotic factors on infectious diseases in LAC to understand the complexity of vector-borne disease transmission in the Neotropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirk Osmond Douglas
- Centre for Biosecurity Studies, Cave Hill Campus, The University of the West Indies, Cave Hill, St. Michael BB11000, Barbados
- Correspondence:
| | - Karl Payne
- Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, Cave Hill Campus, The University of the West Indies, Cave Hill, St. Michael BB11000, Barbados;
| | - Gilberto Sabino-Santos
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, 1324 Tulane Ave Suite 517, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA;
- Centre for Virology Research, Ribeirao Preto Medical School, University of Sao Paulo, 3900 Av. Bandeirantes, Ribeirao Preto 14049-900, SP, Brazil
| | - John Agard
- Department of Life Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine 999183, Trinidad and Tobago;
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12
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Buttke D, Wild M, Monello R, Schuurman G, Hahn M, Jackson K. Managing Wildlife Disease Under Climate Change. ECOHEALTH 2021; 18:406-410. [PMID: 34462847 PMCID: PMC8742803 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-021-01542-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 05/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Danielle Buttke
- National Park Service Biological Resources Division and Office of Public Health, 1201 Oakridge Drive, Suite 200, Fort Collins, CO, 80524, USA.
| | - Margaret Wild
- Washington State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Pullman, USA
| | - Ryan Monello
- National Park Service Pacific Island Inventory and Monitoring Network, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, USA
| | - Gregor Schuurman
- National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, Fort Collins, USA
| | - Micah Hahn
- University of Alaska Anchorage Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies, Anchorage, USA
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13
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Diaz JH. Regional Rodent-Borne Infectious Diseases in North America: What Wilderness Medicine Providers Need to Know. Wilderness Environ Med 2021; 32:365-376. [PMID: 34215513 DOI: 10.1016/j.wem.2021.03.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2020] [Revised: 02/08/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Rodents can transmit infectious diseases directly to humans and other animals via bites and exposure to infectious salivary aerosols and excreta. Arthropods infected while blood-feeding on rodents can also transmit rodent-borne pathogens indirectly to humans and animals. Environmental events, such as wet winters, cooler summers, heavy rains, and flooding, have precipitated regional rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks; these outbreaks are now increasing with climate change. The objectives of this review are to inform wilderness medicine providers about the environmental conditions that can precipitate rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks; to describe the regional geographic distributions of rodent-borne infectious diseases in North America; and to recommend prophylactic treatments and effective prevention and control strategies for rodent-borne infectious diseases. To meet these objectives, Internet search engines were queried with keywords to identify scientific articles on outbreaks of the most common regional rodent-borne infectious diseases in North America. Wilderness medicine providers should maintain high levels of suspicion for regional rodent-borne diseases in patients who develop febrile illnesses after exposure to contaminated freshwater after heavy rains or floods and after swimming, rafting, or paddling in endemic areas. Public health education strategies should encourage limiting human contact with rodents; avoiding contact with or safely disposing of rodent excreta; avoiding contact with contaminated floodwaters, especially contact with open wounds; securely containing outdoor food stores; and modifying wilderness cabins and campsites to deter rodent colonization.
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Affiliation(s)
- James H Diaz
- LSU School of Public Health, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center in New Orleans, New Orleans, Louisiana.
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14
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Sun W, Liu X, Li W, Mao Z, Sun J, Lu L. Effects and interaction of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence in Huludao City, northeastern China, 2007-2018. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009217. [PMID: 33764984 PMCID: PMC7993601 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Accepted: 02/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne disease, is a severe public health threat. Previous studies have discovered the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence, while few studies have concentrated on the stratified analysis of delayed effects and interaction effects of meteorological factors on HFRS. Objective Huludao City is a representative area in north China that suffers from HFRS with primary transmission by Rattus norvegicus. This study aimed to evaluate the climate factors of lag, interaction, and stratified effects of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in Huludao City. Methods Our researchers collected meteorological data and epidemiological data of HFRS cases in Huludao City during 2007–2018. First, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for a maximum lag of 16 weeks was developed to assess the respective lag effect of temperature, precipitation, and humidity on HFRS incidence. We then constructed a generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the interaction effect between temperature and the other two meteorological factors on HFRS incidence and the stratified effect of meteorological factors. Results During the study period, 2751 cases of HFRS were reported in Huludao City. The incidence of HFRS showed a seasonal trend and peak times from February to May. Using the median WAT, median WTP, and median WARH as the reference, the results of DLNM showed that extremely high temperature (97.5th percentile of WAT) had significant associations with HFRS at lag week 15 (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.04–2.74) and lag week 16 (RR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.31–5.95). Under the extremely low temperature (2.5th percentile of WAT), the RRs of HFRS infection were significant at lag week 5 (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01–1.67) and lag 6 weeks (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.57). The RRs of relative humidity were statistically significant at lag week 10 (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00–1.43) and lag week 11 (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.02–1.50) under extremely high relative humidity (97.5th percentile of WARH); however, no statistically significance was observed under extremely low relative humidity (2.5th percentile of WARH). The RRs were significantly high when WAT was -10 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.02–1.76), -9 degrees Celsius (1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.79), and -8 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03–1.75) at lag week 5 and more than 23 degrees Celsius after 15 weeks. Interaction and stratified analyses showed that the risk of HFRS infection reached its highest when both temperature and precipitation were at a high level. Conclusions Our study indicates that meteorological factors, including temperature and humidity, have delayed effects on the occurrence of HFRS in the study area, and the effect of temperature can be modified by humidity and precipitation. Public health professionals should pay more attention to HFRS control when the weather conditions of high temperature with more substantial precipitation and 15 weeks after the temperature is higher than 23 degrees Celsius. Climate change impacts vector-borne disease incidence by influencing vectors’ habitat and behaviors. As a rodent-borne disease, HFRS’s incidence rate fluctuates with the change of meteorological factors. In this study, we model the meteorological factors and time-series cases to explore the exposure-lag-response effect and interaction between meteorological factors on the risk of HFRS, respectively. The result showed there exist a lag effect between meteorological factors and the occurrence of HFRS and we find that a temperature higher than 23 Celsius degrees resulted in a significantly higher HFRS incidence after 15 weeks; a relative humidity higher than 93% led to a significantly higher incidence after 10 weeks. Also, a synergistic interaction between high temperature and high precipitation on HFRS risk was detected, this effect can be attributed to increased animal reproduction and food resources under this environment. This study provides a basis for in-depth evaluating the impact of meteorological factors and their interaction on HFRS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wanwan Sun
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaobo Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wen Li
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyuan Mao
- Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America
| | - Jimin Sun
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
- * E-mail: (JMS); (LL)
| | - Liang Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- * E-mail: (JMS); (LL)
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15
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Dash SP, Dipankar P, Burange PS, Rouse BT, Sarangi PP. Climate change: how it impacts the emergence, transmission, resistance and consequences of viral infections in animals and plants. Crit Rev Microbiol 2021; 47:307-322. [PMID: 33570448 DOI: 10.1080/1040841x.2021.1879006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has made us wonder what led to its occurrence and what can be done to avoid such events in the future. As we document, one changing circumstance that is resulting in the emergence and changing the expression of viral diseases in both plants and animals is climate change. Of note, the rapidly changing environment and weather conditions such as excessive flooding, droughts, and forest fires have raised concerns about the global ecosystem's security, sustainability, and balance. In this review, we discuss the main consequences of climate change and link these to how they impact the appearance of new viral pathogens, how they may facilitate transmission between usual and novel hosts, and how they may also affect the host's ability to manage the infection. We emphasize how changes in temperature and humidity and other events associated with climate change influence the reservoirs of viral infections, their transmission by insects and other intermediates, their survival outside the host as well the success of infection in plants and animals. We conclude that climate change has mainly detrimental consequences for the emergence, transmission, and outcome of viral infections and plead the case for halting and hopefully reversing this dangerous event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiba Prasad Dash
- Department of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
| | - Pankaj Dipankar
- Department of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
| | - Prasad S Burange
- Department of Entomology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India
| | - Barry T Rouse
- Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Sciences, The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Pranita P Sarangi
- Department of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
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16
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Camp JV, Spruill-Harrell B, Owen RD, Solà-Riera C, Williams EP, Eastwood G, Sawyer AM, Jonsson CB. Mixed Effects of Habitat Degradation and Resources on Hantaviruses in Sympatric Wild Rodent Reservoirs within a Neotropical Forest. Viruses 2021; 13:85. [PMID: 33435494 PMCID: PMC7827808 DOI: 10.3390/v13010085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2020] [Revised: 01/06/2021] [Accepted: 01/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the ecology of rodent-borne hantaviruses is critical to assessing the risk of spillover to humans. Longitudinal surveys have suggested that hantaviral prevalence in a given host population is tightly linked to rodent ecology and correlates with changes in the species composition of a rodent community over time and/or habitat composition. We tested two hypotheses to identify whether resource addition and/or habitat composition may affect hantavirus prevalence among two sympatric reservoir hosts in a neotropical forest: (i) increased food resources will alter the rodent community and thus hantaviral prevalence; and (ii) host abundance and viral seroprevalence will be associated with habitat composition. We established a baseline of rodent-virus prevalence in three grid pairs of distinct habitat compositions and subjected one grid of each pair to resource augmentation. Increased rodent species diversity was observed on grids where food was added versus untreated control grids during the first post-treatment sampling session. Resource augmentation changed species community composition, yet it did not affect the prevalence of hantavirus in the host population over time, nor was there evidence of a dilution effect. Secondly, we show that the prevalence of the virus in the respective reservoir hosts was associated with habitat composition at two spatial levels, independent of resource addition, supporting previous findings that habitat composition is a primary driver of the prevalence of hantaviruses in the neotropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy V. Camp
- Institute of Virology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, 1210 Vienna, Austria;
| | - Briana Spruill-Harrell
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Biochemistry, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA; (B.S.-H.); (E.P.W.)
| | - Robert D. Owen
- Centro para el Desarrollo de la Investigación Científica, Asunción C.P. 1371, Paraguay;
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
| | - Carles Solà-Riera
- Center for Infectious Medicine, Department of Medicine Huddinge, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital, 141 86 Stockholm, Sweden;
| | - Evan P. Williams
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Biochemistry, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA; (B.S.-H.); (E.P.W.)
| | - Gillian Eastwood
- Department of Microbiology, University of Tennessee-Knoxville, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA; (G.E.); (A.M.S.)
| | - Aubrey M. Sawyer
- Department of Microbiology, University of Tennessee-Knoxville, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA; (G.E.); (A.M.S.)
| | - Colleen B. Jonsson
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Biochemistry, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38163, USA; (B.S.-H.); (E.P.W.)
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17
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Pratiti R, Sud P. A Call for epidemic assessment questionnaire. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 191:110150. [PMID: 32888952 PMCID: PMC7462929 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2020] [Revised: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 08/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Epidemic outbreaks are a part of population and public health. The epidemiological triad of host, agent and environment are changing in their interaction with each other in the recent years. As health care professionals lack training and time to assess risk factors of epidemic, important information about epidemic source identification may be missed. Newer biological and chemical agents are continually being added in our environment with potential to cause acute or subacute epidemic of diseases. These factors should motivate us to draft and implement an accessible universal epidemic outbreak questionnaire with a good online database for early epidemic source identification. We have tried to formulate a universal questionnaire that, if needed may be used by providers if they suspect unusual occurrence of cluster of cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Pratiti
- McLaren HealthCare, G-3245 Beecher Rd, Flint, MI, 48532, USA.
| | - Parul Sud
- McLaren HealthCare, G-3245 Beecher Rd, Flint, MI, 48532, USA
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18
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Luo L, Guo Z, Lei Z, Hu Q, Chen M, Chen F, Zhao Z, Rui J, Liu X, Zhu Y, Wang Y, Yang M, Chen T. Epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease and its relationship with meteorological factors in Xiamen city, China. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008772. [PMID: 33057334 PMCID: PMC7591240 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2020] [Revised: 10/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Tsutsugamushi disease (TD) is an acute infectious disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological features of TD, investigate chigger mites and their hosts, and investigate the meteorological factors affecting TD incidence and the host of O. tsutsugamushi in Xiamen city, China. Data on reported TD cases were collected from 2006 to 2018. Spearman’s correlation test were used for identifying the relationship between meteorological factors and TD incidence and whether meteorological factors affect the host of O. tsutsugamushi. The incidence of reported TD increased gradually from 2006, reached a peak of 4.59 per 100,000 persons in 2014, and then decreased gradually. The TD incidence was seasonal, with epidemic periods occurred mainly in summer and autumn. Patients aged 40–60 years had the highest proportion of cases, accounting for 44.44% of the total cases. Farmers had the largest number of cases among all occupational groups. Rattus Norvegicus was the most common host, accounting for the largest proportion of rats (73.00%), and the highest rat density was observed in March and October every year. There were significant positive correlations between the number of reported cases and average temperature, sunshine duration, and rainfall as well as between rat density and average temperature. On phylogenetic analysis, 7 sequences of hosts and human TD cases obtained from health records demonstrated the highest similarities to the Kato, Karp, and Gilliam strains. No correlations were observed between rat density, and sunshine duration and rainfall. The transmission of TD in Xiamen city, China, was seasonal, and its incidence was affected by several meteorological factors including average temperature, sunshine duration, and rainfall. However, the host of O. tsutsugamushi was only affected by average temperature. Tsutsugamushi disease (TD) is a natural focal disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is widespread in some areas. The incidence of TD is greatly influenced by meteorological factors. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the epidemiological features of TD, investigate chigger mites and their hosts, and explore the relationship between meteorological factors and TD incidence and whether meteorological factors affect the host of O. tsutsugamushi in Xiamen city, China. The results showed significant positive correlations between the number of reported cases and average temperature, sunshine duration, and rainfall. A positive correlation between rat density and average temperature. No correlations were observed between the rat density and sunshine duration and rainfall. We believe our findings may provide scientific basis for studies or health strategies conducted in areas that are meteorologically similar in characteristics with Xiamen city, China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Luo
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhinan Guo
- Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen city, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhao Lei
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qingqing Hu
- Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Presidents Circle, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America
| | - Min Chen
- Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen city, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Fanghua Chen
- Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen city, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xingchun Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yuanzhao Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Meng Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China
- * E-mail:
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19
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D'Souza MH, Patel TR. Biodefense Implications of New-World Hantaviruses. Front Bioeng Biotechnol 2020; 8:925. [PMID: 32850756 PMCID: PMC7426369 DOI: 10.3389/fbioe.2020.00925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Accepted: 07/17/2020] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Hantaviruses, part of the Bunyaviridae family, are a genus of negative-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that cause two major diseases: New-World Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome and Old-World Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome. Hantaviruses generally are found worldwide with each disease corresponding to their respective hemispheres. New-World Hantaviruses spread by specific rodent-host reservoirs and are categorized as emerging viruses that pose a threat to global health and security due to their high mortality rate and ease of transmission. Incidentally, reports of Hantavirus categorization as a bioweapon are often contradicted as both US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention refer to them as Category A and C bioagents respectively, each retaining qualitative levels of importance and severity. Concerns of Hantavirus being engineered into a novel bioagent has been thwarted by Hantaviruses being difficult to culture, isolate, and purify limiting its ability to be weaponized. However, the natural properties of Hantaviruses pose a threat that can be exploited by conventional and unconventional forces. This review seeks to clarify the categorization of Hantaviruses as a bioweapon, whilst defining the practicality of employing New-World Hantaviruses and their effect on armies, infrastructure, and civilian targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Hilary D'Souza
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Alberta RNA Research and Training Institute, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB, Canada
| | - Trushar R Patel
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Alberta RNA Research and Training Institute, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB, Canada.,Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Infectious Disease, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Institute of Virology and Discovery Lab, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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20
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Shi F, Yu C, Yang L, Li F, Lun J, Gao W, Xu Y, Xiao Y, Shankara SB, Zheng Q, Zhang B, Wang S. Exploring the Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Incidence in East China Through Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models. Infect Drug Resist 2020; 13:2465-2475. [PMID: 32801786 PMCID: PMC7383097 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s250038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2020] [Accepted: 07/05/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the dynamics of incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) from 2000 to 2017 in Anqiu City, a city located in East China, and find the potential factors leading to the incidence of HFRS. Methods Monthly reported cases of HFRS and climatic data from 2000 to 2017 in the city were obtained. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were used to fit the HFRS incidence and predict the epidemic trend in Anqiu City. Univariate and multivariate generalized additive models were fit to identify and characterize the association between the HFRS incidence and meteorological factors during the study period. Results Statistical analysis results indicate that the annualized average incidence at the town level ranged from 1.68 to 6.31 per 100,000 population among 14 towns in the city, and the western towns exhibit high endemic levels during the study periods. With high validity, the optimal SARIMA(0,1,1,)(0,1,1)12 model may be used to predict the HFRS incidence. Multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) results show that the HFRS incidence increases as sunshine time and humidity increases and decreases as precipitation increases. In addition, the HFRS incidence is associated with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed. Those are identified as the key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. Conclusion This study provides evidence that the SARIMA models can be used to characterize the fluctuations in HFRS incidence. Our findings add to the knowledge of the role played by climate factors in HFRS transmission and can assist local health authorities in the development and refinement of a better strategy to prevent HFRS transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fuyan Shi
- Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Changlan Yu
- Anqiu City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Anqiu, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Liping Yang
- Health and Medical Center, Xijing Hospital, Air Force Military Medical University, Xi'an, Shannxi, People's Republic of China
| | - Fangyou Li
- Anqiu City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Anqiu, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Jiangtao Lun
- Anqiu Meteorological Bureau, Anqiu, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Wenfeng Gao
- Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Weifang Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Yongyong Xu
- Department of Health Statistics, School of Military Preventive Medicine, Air Force Military Medical University, Xi'an, Shannxi, People's Republic of China
| | - Yufei Xiao
- Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Sravya B Shankara
- Program in Health: Science, Society, and Policy, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA
| | - Qingfeng Zheng
- Institute for Hospital Management of Tsinghua University, Tsinghua Campus, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China
| | - Bo Zhang
- Department of Neurology and ICCTR Biostatistics and Research Design Center, Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Suzhen Wang
- Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, People's Republic of China
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Khan MD, Thi Vu HH, Lai QT, Ahn JW. Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E2799. [PMID: 31390751 PMCID: PMC6696070 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16152799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Revised: 07/31/2019] [Accepted: 08/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Danish Khan
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Hong Ha Thi Vu
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Quang Tuan Lai
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Ji Whan Ahn
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea.
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Morin CW, Semenza JC, Trtanj JM, Glass GE, Boyer C, Ebi KL. Unexplored Opportunities: Use of Climate- and Weather-Driven Early Warning Systems to Reduce the Burden of Infectious Diseases. Curr Environ Health Rep 2019; 5:430-438. [PMID: 30350265 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-018-0221-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Weather and climate influence multiple aspects of infectious disease ecology. Creating and applying early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data can identify where and when outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases could occur and can be used by decision makers to allocate resources. Whether an outbreak actually occurs depends heavily on other social, political, and institutional factors. RECENT FINDINGS Improving the timing and confidence of seasonal climate forecasting, coupled with knowledge of exposure-response relationships, can identify prior conditions conducive to disease outbreaks weeks to months in advance of outbreaks. This information could then be used by public health professionals to improve surveillance in the most likely areas for threats. Early warning systems are well established for drought and famine. And while weather- and climate-driven early warning systems for certain diseases, such as dengue fever and cholera, are employed in some regions, this area of research is underdeveloped. Early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data provide an opportunity for early detection leading to early action and response to potential pathogen threats, thereby reducing the burden of disease when compared with passive health indicator-based surveillance systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cory W Morin
- University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE # 100, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA.
| | - Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden
| | - Juli M Trtanj
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | | | - Christopher Boyer
- University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE # 100, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE # 100, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
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Montoya-Ruiz C, Díaz FJ, W MJ, Xiaofeng Z, Levis S, Zapata JC, Muskus CE, Álvarez CM, Rodas JD. Development of a serosurveillance assay for detection of Necoclí virus exposure. Arch Virol 2018; 163:3291-3301. [PMID: 30191374 DOI: 10.1007/s00705-018-4015-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HPS) has gained importance in Latin America as an emerging disease, with reports of about 4000 HPS cases; however, this is probably an underestimate because of limited surveillance programs and diagnostic tools to confirm HPS. In order to address this issue and develop better serosurveillance capability, we evaluated three recombinant peptides from the Necoclí virus (NECV) nucleocapsid in antibody-capture ELISA. We cloned and expressed antigens representing the whole NECV nucleocapsid protein (NECV-rN), the immunodominant domain (NECV-rN100), and a serospecific domain (NECV-rN428), and then we compared these antigens in ELISA to detect IgG antibodies to NECV in human sera. We evaluated human sera collected during two epidemiological studies from the area where NECV was discovered. The first group included 609 sera from healthy individuals, and the second one included 89 samples from patients with undifferentiated febrile illness. In these two groups, hantavirus infection had previously been determined by the presence of IgG to Maciel virus (MCLV), a hantavirus closely related to NECV. The number of IgG-positive sera was higher using the Necoclí ELISA with the rN100 protein, which detected antibodies in a higher percentage of healthy individuals, 129/609 (21.2%), as well as in febrile patients, 11/89 (12.3%). In contrast, using MCLV ELISA, 8 of 609 (1.3%) and 4 of 89 (4.5%) samples from healthy and febrile patients, respectively, were seropositive. The agreement between the NECV and MCLV ELISA assays was ≥ 82.3%; however, the kappa indices were weak but statistically significant for rN (0.251 CI; 0.138-0.365) and rN100rN (0.153 CI; 0.084-0.223). The weak kappa indices were attributed to decreased MCLV ELISA assay sensitivity. These results suggest that NECV rN and rN100 have increased specificity and could be further validated for improved diagnosis of hantavirus infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carolina Montoya-Ruiz
- Grupo Centauro, Universidad de Antioquia U-de-A, Sede de Investigación Universitaria, SIU, Carrera 53 No. 61-30 Lab. 233, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia.
| | - Francisco J Díaz
- Grupo Inmunovirología, Universidad de Antioquia U-de-A, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
| | - McBride Jere W
- Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
| | - Zhang Xiaofeng
- Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas, USA
| | - Silvana Levis
- Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas "Dr. Julio I. Maiztegui" (INEVH), Pergamino, Argentina
| | - Juan Carlos Zapata
- Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, 725 W. Lombard Street, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Carlos E Muskus
- Programa de Estudio y Control de Enfermedades Tropicales-PECET, Universidad de Antioquia U-de-A, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
| | - Cristian M Álvarez
- Grupo de Inmunología Celular e Inmunogenética (GICIG), Universidad de Antioquia U-de-A, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
| | - Juan David Rodas
- Grupo Centauro, Universidad de Antioquia U-de-A, Sede de Investigación Universitaria, SIU, Carrera 53 No. 61-30 Lab. 233, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
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Phillips C, Lipman GS, Gugelmann H, Doering K, Lung D. Snakebites and climate change in California, 1997-2017. Clin Toxicol (Phila) 2018; 57:168-174. [PMID: 30180761 DOI: 10.1080/15563650.2018.1508690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change effect on flora and fauna has been scientifically documented, but the effect on North American venomous snakebites is unknown. The objectives were to examine Californian snakebite incidence and correlate with weather patterns and climate changes. METHODS A retrospective analysis of snakebites reported to the Californian Poison Control System from 1 September 1997 to 30 September 2017. Venomous snakebite reports were aggregated by caller zip code, and correlated per county with weather data, air temperature, precipitation, population data, eco-regions, and land characteristics. Time series decomposition by seasonality and trend, regression, and autocorrelation were used to assess association between climate variables and incidence. RESULTS There were 5365 reported venomous snakebites during the study period, with a median age of 37 years (22-51) with 76% male (p < .001, 95% CI 75.6-77.9%). Most snakebite outcomes were coded as minor (1363, 25%) or moderate (2607, 49%), with three deaths. Adjusted for population, the annualized incidence of snakebites statewide slightly decreased (rho = -0.11, p = .65). The snakebite incidence per million people rose after a period of no drought and declined during drought (r = -0.41, p ≪ .01). Snakebite incidence decreased by 6-month prior drought (-3.8% for each 10% increase in drought), and increased by 18-month prior precipitation (+3.9% for each 10% increase in precipitation). CONCLUSIONS Patterns of precipitation and drought had a significant and predictive effect on snakebites in California over a 20-year period. Snakebite incidence decreased following drought, and increased after precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caleb Phillips
- a Department of Computer Science , University of Colorado , Boulder , CO , USA
| | - Grant S Lipman
- b Department of Emergency Medicine , Stanford University School of Medicine , Stanford , CA , USA
| | - Hallam Gugelmann
- c Department of Medicine, Division of Clinical Pharmacology and Medical Toxicology , University California San Francisco , San Francisco , CA , USA
| | | | - Derrick Lung
- c Department of Medicine, Division of Clinical Pharmacology and Medical Toxicology , University California San Francisco , San Francisco , CA , USA
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25
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McMahon BJ, Morand S, Gray JS. Ecosystem change and zoonoses in the Anthropocene. Zoonoses Public Health 2018; 65:755-765. [PMID: 30105852 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12489] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2018] [Revised: 05/08/2018] [Accepted: 05/27/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Changes in land use, animal populations and climate, primarily due to increasing human populations, drive the emergence of zoonoses. Force of infection (FOI), which for these diseases is a measure of the ease with which a pathogen reaches the human population, can change with specific zoonoses and context. Here, we outline three ecosystem categories-domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic, where disease ecology alters the FOI of specific zoonoses. Human intervention is an overriding effect in the emergence of zoonoses; therefore, we need to understand the disease ecology and other influencing factors of pathogens and parasites that are likely to interact differently within ecological and cultural contexts. Planning for One Health and community ecology, such as an ecological impact assessment, is required to prepare and manage the emergence and impact of zoonoses in the Anthropocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barry J McMahon
- UCD School of Agriculture & Food Science, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland
| | - Serge Morand
- CNRS - CIRAD ASTRE, Faculty of Veterinary Technology, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Jeremy S Gray
- UCD School of Biology & Environmental Science, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland
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Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006604. [PMID: 29949572 PMCID: PMC6039051 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2017] [Revised: 07/10/2018] [Accepted: 06/11/2018] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The epidemic tendency of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is on the rise in recent years in Guangzhou. This study aimed to explore the associations between meteorological factors and HFRS epidemic risk in Guangzhou for the period from 2006–2015. Methods We obtained data of HFRS cases in Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the period of 2006–2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS. Results The annual average incidence was 0.92 per 100000, with the annual incidence ranging from 0.64/100000 in 2009 to 1.05/100000 in 2012. The monthly number of HFRS cases decreased by 5.543% (95%CI -5.564% to -5.523%) each time the temperature was increased by 1°C and the number of cases decreased by 0.075% (95%CI -0.076% to -0.074%) each time the aggregate rainfall was increased by 1 mm. We found that average temperature with a one-month lag was significantly associated with HFRS transmission. Conclusions Meteorological factors had significant association with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS and for developing an early warning system. The prevalence of HFRS was on the rise in recent years, especially in the large and medium-sized cities in China. We obtained data of HFRS cases in Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the period of 2006–2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS. Meteorological factors had significant association with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS and for developing an early warning system.
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Astorga F, Escobar LE, Poo-Muñoz D, Escobar-Dodero J, Rojas-Hucks S, Alvarado-Rybak M, Duclos M, Romero-Alvarez D, Molina-Burgos BE, Peñafiel-Ricaurte A, Toro F, Peña-Gómez FT, Peterson AT. Distributional ecology of Andes hantavirus: a macroecological approach. Int J Health Geogr 2018; 17:22. [PMID: 29929522 PMCID: PMC6013855 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-018-0142-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2018] [Accepted: 06/13/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an infection endemic in Chile and Argentina, caused by Andes hantavirus (ANDV). The rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus is suggested as the main reservoir, although several other species of Sigmodontinae are known hosts of ANDV. Here, we explore potential ANDV transmission risk to humans in southern South America, based on eco-epidemiological associations among: six rodent host species, seropositive rodents, and human HPS cases. METHODS We used ecological niche modeling and macroecological approaches to determine potential geographic distributions and assess environmental similarity among rodents and human HPS cases. RESULTS Highest numbers of rodent species (five) were in Chile between 35° and 41°S latitude. Background similarity tests showed niche similarity in 14 of the 56 possible comparisons: similarity between human HPS cases and the background of all species and seropositive rodents was supported (except for Abrothrix sanborni). Of interest among the results is the likely role of O. longicaudatus, Loxodontomys micropus, Abrothrix olivaceus, and Abrothrix longipilis in HPS transmission to humans. CONCLUSIONS Our results support a role of rodent species' distributions as a risk factor for human HPS at coarse scales, and suggest that the role of the main reservoir (O. longicaudatus) may be supported by the broader rodent host community in some areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisca Astorga
- Campus Huechuraba, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, 8580745 Santiago, Chile
| | - Luis E. Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
| | - Daniela Poo-Muñoz
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
- Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, Chile
| | - Joaquin Escobar-Dodero
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Sylvia Rojas-Hucks
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Mario Alvarado-Rybak
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Melanie Duclos
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Daniel Romero-Alvarez
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA
| | - Blanca E. Molina-Burgos
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Alexandra Peñafiel-Ricaurte
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Frederick Toro
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad y Programa de Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8320000 Santiago, Chile
| | - Francisco T. Peña-Gómez
- Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - A. Townsend Peterson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA
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He J, Christakos G, Wu J, Cazelles B, Qian Q, Mu D, Wang Y, Yin W, Zhang W. Spatiotemporal variation of the association between climate dynamics and HFRS outbreaks in Eastern China during 2005-2016 and its geographic determinants. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006554. [PMID: 29874263 PMCID: PMC6005641 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2018] [Revised: 06/18/2018] [Accepted: 05/22/2018] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-associated zoonosis caused by hantavirus. The HFRS was initially detected in northeast China in 1931, and since 1955 it has been detected in many regions of the country. Global climate dynamics influences HFRS spread in a complex nonlinear way. The quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal variation of the “HFRS infections-global climate dynamics” association at a large geographical scale and during a long time period is still lacking. Methods and findings This work is the first study of a recently completed dataset of monthly HFRS cases in Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. A methodological synthesis that involves a time-frequency technique, a composite space-time model, hotspot analysis, and machine learning is implemented in the study of (a) the association between HFRS incidence spread and climate dynamics and (b) the geographic factors impacting this association over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. The results showed that by assimilating core and city-specific knowledge bases the synthesis was able to depict quantitatively the space-time variation of periodic climate-HFRS associations at a large geographic scale and to assess numerically the strength of this association in the area and period of interest. It was found that the HFRS infections in Eastern China has a strong association with global climate dynamics, in particular, the 12, 18 and 36 mos periods were detected as the three main synchronous periods of climate dynamics and HFRS distribution. For the 36 mos period (which is the period with the strongest association), the space-time correlation pattern of the association strength indicated strong temporal but rather weak spatial dependencies. The generated space-time maps of association strength and association hotspots provided a clear picture of the geographic variation of the association strength that often-exhibited cluster characteristics (e.g., the south part of the study area displays a strong climate-HFRS association with non-point effects, whereas the middle-north part displays a weak climate-HFRS association). Another finding of this work is the upward climate-HFRS coherency trend for the past few years (2013–2015) indicating that the climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. Lastly, another finding of this work is that geographic factors affect the climate-HFRS association in an interrelated manner through local climate or by means of HFRS infections. In particular, location (latitude, distance to coastline and longitude), grassland and woodland are the geographic factors exerting the most noticeable effects on the climate-HFRS association (e.g., low latitude has a strong effect, whereas distance to coastline has a wave-like effect). Conclusions The proposed synthetic quantitative approach revealed important aspects of the spatiotemporal variation of the climate-HFRS association in Eastern China during a long time period, and identified the geographic factors having a major impact on this association. Both findings could improve public health policy in an HFRS-torn country like China. Furthermore, the synthetic approach developed in this work can be used to map the space-time variation of different climate-disease associations in other parts of China and the World. China has the largest number of HFRS infections in the world (9045 cases in 2016). Previous studies have found that HFRS infections are related to climate. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of the association between HFRS outbreaks at a large scale and global climate dynamics (i.e., over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016), as well as the identification of the geographic factors impacting this association have not been studied yet. This is then the dual focus of the present study. Strong synchronicities between global climate change and HFRS infections were detected across the entire study area that were linked to three main time periods (12, 18 and 36 mos). Specifically, strong and weak associations with non-point effects were detected in the south and middle-north parts of the study region, respectively. The climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. On the other hand, the geographic location (north coordinate, distance to coastline, east coordinate) makes a considerable contribution to the climate-HFRS association. As regards land-use, grassland and woodland were found to play important contributing roles to climate-HFRS association. Certain space-time links between global climate dynamics and HFRS infections were confirmed at a large spatial scale and within a long time period. The above findings could improve both the understanding of the HFRS transmission pattern and the forecasting of HFRS outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junyu He
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - George Christakos
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
- Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
- * E-mail: (GC); (WZ)
| | - Jiaping Wu
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Bernard Cazelles
- Institute de Biologie de I’Ecole Normale Superieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, Ecole Normal Superieure, Paris, France
- International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems (UMMISCO), UMI 209 IRD-UPMC, Bondy, France
| | - Quan Qian
- Center for Disease Surveillance of PLA, Institute of Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China
| | - Di Mu
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Center for Disease Surveillance of PLA, Institute of Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China
| | - Wenwu Yin
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Center for Disease Surveillance of PLA, Institute of Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China
- * E-mail: (GC); (WZ)
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Kim HC, Kim WK, No JS, Lee SH, Gu SH, Chong ST, Klein TA, Song JW. Urban Rodent Surveillance, Climatic Association, and Genomic Characterization of Seoul Virus Collected at U.S. Army Garrison, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 2006-2010. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2018; 99:470-476. [PMID: 29869603 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.17-0459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Rodent-borne pathogens pose a critical public health threat in urban areas. An epidemiological survey of urban rodents was conducted from 2006 to 2010 at the U.S. Army Garrison (USAG), Seoul, Republic of Korea (ROK), to determine the prevalence of Seoul virus (SEOV), a rodent-borne hantavirus. A total of 1,950 rodents were captured at USAG, Yongsan, near/in 19.4% (234/1,206) of the numbered buildings. Annual mean rodent infestation rates were the highest for food service facilities, e.g., the Dragon Hill Lodge complex (38.0 rodents) and the Hartell House (18.8 rodents). The brown rat, Rattus norvegicus, accounted for 99.4% (1,939/1,950) of all the rodents captured in the urban area, whereas only 0.6% (11/1,950) of the rodents was house mice (Mus musculus). In November 2006, higher numbers of rats captured were likely associated with climatic factors, e.g., rainfall and temperatures as rats sought harborage in and around buildings. Only 4.7% (34/718) of the rodents assayed for hantaviruses was serologically positive for SEOV. A total of 8.8% (3/34) R. norvegicus were positive for SEOV RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, of which two SEOV strains were completely sequenced and characterized. The 3' and 5' terminal sequences revealed incomplete complementary genomic configuration. Seoul virus strains Rn10-134 and Rn10-145 formed a monophyletic lineage with the prototype SEOV strain 80-39. Seoul virus Medium segment showed the highest evolutionary rates compared with the Large and Small segments. In conclusion, this report provides significant insights into continued rodent-borne disease surveillance programs that identify hantaviruses for analysis of disease risk assessments and development of mitigation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heung-Chul Kim
- Medical Command Activity-Korea, 65th Medical Brigade, Unit 15281, APO AP 96271-5281
| | - Won-Keun Kim
- Department of Microbiology, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jin Sun No
- Department of Microbiology, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seung-Ho Lee
- Department of Microbiology, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Se Hun Gu
- 5th R&D Institute, Agency for Defense Development, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
| | - Sung-Tae Chong
- Medical Command Activity-Korea, 65th Medical Brigade, Unit 15281, APO AP 96271-5281
| | - Terry A Klein
- Medical Command Activity-Korea, 65th Medical Brigade, Unit 15281, APO AP 96271-5281
| | - Jin-Won Song
- Department of Microbiology, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Raharinosy V, Olive MM, Andriamiarimanana FM, Andriamandimby SF, Ravalohery JP, Andriamamonjy S, Filippone C, Rakoto DAD, Telfer S, Heraud JM. Geographical distribution and relative risk of Anjozorobe virus (Thailand orthohantavirus) infection in black rats (Rattus rattus) in Madagascar. Virol J 2018; 15:83. [PMID: 29743115 PMCID: PMC5944027 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-018-0992-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2018] [Accepted: 04/30/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Hantavirus infection is a zoonotic disease that is associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and cardiopulmonary syndrome in human. Anjozorobe virus, a representative virus of Thailand orthohantavirus (THAIV), was recently discovered from rodents in Anjozorobe-Angavo forest in Madagascar. To assess the circulation of hantavirus at the national level, we carried out a survey of small terrestrial mammals from representative regions of the island and identified environmental factors associated with hantavirus infection. As we were ultimately interested in the potential for human exposure, we focused our research in the peridomestic area. Methods Sampling was achieved in twenty districts of Madagascar, with a rural and urban zone in each district. Animals were trapped from a range of habitats and examined for hantavirus RNA by nested RT-PCR. We also investigated the relationship between hantavirus infection probability in rats and possible risk factors by using Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Results Overall, 1242 specimens from seven species were collected (Rattus rattus, Rattus norvegicus, Mus musculus, Suncus murinus, Setifer setosus, Tenrec ecaudatus, Hemicentetes semispinosus). Overall, 12.4% (111/897) of Rattus rattus and 1.6% (2/125) of Mus musculus were tested positive for THAIV. Rats captured within houses were less likely to be infected than rats captured in other habitats, whilst rats from sites characterized by high precipitation and relatively low seasonality were more likely to be infected than those from other areas. Older animals were more likely to be infected, with infection probability showing a strong increase with weight. Conclusions We report widespread distribution of THAIV in the peridomestic rats of Madagascar, with highest prevalence for those living in humid areas. Although the potential risk of infection to human may also be widespread, our results provide a first indication of specific zone with high transmission. Gathered data will be helpful to implement policies for control and prevention of human risk infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vololoniaina Raharinosy
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar.,Ecole Doctorale des Sciences de la Vie et de l'Environnement, Equipe Pathogènes et Diversité Moléculaire, Faculté des Sciences, Université d'Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Marie-Marie Olive
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | | | - Soa Fy Andriamandimby
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Jean-Pierre Ravalohery
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Seta Andriamamonjy
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Claudia Filippone
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Danielle Aurore Doll Rakoto
- Département de Biochimie Fondamentale et Appliquée, Faculté des Sciences, Université d'Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Sandra Telfer
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Jean-Michel Heraud
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely, BP 1274, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
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Hantaviruses and a neglected environmental determinant. One Health 2018; 5:27-33. [PMID: 29911161 PMCID: PMC6000911 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2017.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2017] [Revised: 12/06/2017] [Accepted: 12/30/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Most human pathogenic hantaviruses cause severe hemorrhagic fevers with a high rate of fatalities, such as occurs due to the genotypes causing hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome carried by the New World Sigmodontinae and Neotominae rodents. An increasing number of outbreaks and the possibility of cases spreading over international borders have led to greater interest in these viruses and the environmental determinants that facilitate their transmission. Rodents, shrews, moles and bats act as reservoir hosts of hantaviruses, and within the hantavirus transmission flow, the prevalence and distribution of infection in reservoir hosts is influenced by a range of factors. Climate change and landscape alteration affect hantavirus transmission, but the outcomes can differ among different hantaviruses and for the same virus in differentbiomes. However, it is evident that the underlying mechanisms that mediate hantavirus transmission are largely unknown, so that much work remains to be done regarding the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses. Overall, our review highlights the importance of examining interactions over several trophic levels and the underlying mechanisms (density and trait-mediated indirect effects) linking predation risk and hantavirus transmission, to develop an ecological framework to understand disease in natural, preserved and degraded systems.
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Gorosito IL, Douglass RJ. A damped precipitation-driven, bottom-up model for deer mouse population abundance in the northwestern United States. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:11113-11123. [PMID: 29299286 PMCID: PMC5743491 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Revised: 08/11/2017] [Accepted: 10/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Small-mammal population densities can be regulated by bottom-up (food availability) and top-down (predation) forces. In 1993, an El Niño Southern Oscillation event was followed by a cluster of human hantavirus with pulmonary syndrome in the southwestern United States. An upward trophic cascade hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for the outbreak: Increased plant productivity as a consequence of El Niño precipitations led to an unusual increase in distribution and abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus; reservoir host of Sin Nombre virus). Could such drastic events occur in mesic habitats, where plant productivity in response to climate conditions is likely to be much less dramatic? In this work, we investigate to what extent deer mouse populations follow a precipitation-driven, bottom-up model in central and western Montana and discuss important conditions for such a model to be possible. We found positive correlations between deer mouse abundance and on-the-ground measured plant productivity with a several-month lag in three of six study sites. This effect was weaker when deer mouse populations were more abundant, indicating density-dependent effects. Dispersal resulting from territoriality may be important in attenuating local density increments in spite of high food availability. In addition, there is evidence that population abundance in the study area could respond to other abiotic factors. In particular, precipitation in the form of snow may reduce deer mice survival, thus compensating the benefits of improved plant productivity. Deer mouse populations in Montana study sites follow complex dynamics determined by multiple limiting factors, leading to a damped precipitation-driven bottom-up regulation. This prevents dramatic changes in rodent abundances after sudden increments of food availability, such as those observed in other regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Irene L. Gorosito
- Departamento de EcologíaGenética y EvoluciónFacultad de Ciencias Exactas y NaturalesUniversidad de Buenos AiresBuenos AiresArgentina
- Instituto de EcologíaGenética y Evolución de Buenos AiresConsejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y TécnicasBuenos AiresArgentina
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Prist PR, D Andrea PS, Metzger JP. Landscape, Climate and Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Outbreaks. ECOHEALTH 2017; 14:614-629. [PMID: 28620680 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-017-1255-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2016] [Revised: 04/26/2017] [Accepted: 05/10/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
We performed a literature review in order to improve our understanding of how landscape and climate drivers affect HCPS outbreaks. Anthropogenic landscape changes such as forest loss, fragmentation and agricultural land uses are related with a boost in hantavirus reservoir species abundance and hantavirus prevalence in tropical areas, increasing HCPS risk. Additionally, higher precipitation, especially in arid regions, favors an increase in vegetational biomass, which augments the resources for reservoir rodents, also increasing HCPS risk. Although these relationships were observed, few studies described it so far, and the ones that did it are concentrated in few places. To guide future research on this issue, we build a conceptual model relating landscape and climate variables with HCPS outbreaks and identified research opportunities. We point out the need for studies addressing the effects of landscape configuration, temperature and the interaction between climate and landscape variables. Critical landscape thresholds are also highly relevant, once HCPS risk transmission can increase rapidly above a certain degree of landscape degradation. These studies could be relevant to implement preventive measures, creating landscapes that can mitigate disease spread risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Ribeiro Prist
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 321, travessa 14, São Paulo, SP, 05508-900, Brazil.
| | - Paulo Sérgio D Andrea
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Jean Paul Metzger
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 321, travessa 14, São Paulo, SP, 05508-900, Brazil
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George M, Bruzzese JM, Matura LA. Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing. J Nurs Scholarsh 2017; 49:644-652. [PMID: 28806469 DOI: 10.1111/jnu.12330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/13/2017] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. APPROACH This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. CLINICAL RELEVANCE While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maureen George
- Xi, Associate Professor, Columbia University School of Nursing, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jean-Marie Bruzzese
- Associate Professor of Applied Developmental Psychology (in Nursing), Columbia University School of Nursing, New York, NY, USA
| | - Lea Ann Matura
- Beta Beta, Associate Professor, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing, Philadelphia, PA, USA
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Prist PR, Uriarte M, Fernandes K, Metzger JP. Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005705. [PMID: 28727744 PMCID: PMC5519001 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2017] [Accepted: 06/12/2017] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Ribeiro Prist
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | - María Uriarte
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Katia Fernandes
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society; Earth Institute; Columbia University, Palisades, New York, United States of America
| | - Jean Paul Metzger
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human-animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:8041-8046. [PMID: 28696305 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701777114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen, has a global distribution with 200,000 human infections diagnosed annually. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus infections have been reported in Eurasia and America. These outbreaks have led to public concern and an interest in understanding the underlying biological mechanisms. Here, we propose a climate-animal-Hantaan virus (HTNV) infection model to address this issue, using a unique dataset spanning a 54-y period (1960-2013). This dataset comes from Central China, a focal point for natural HTNV infection, and includes both field surveillance and an epidemiological record. We reveal that the 8-y cycle of HTNV outbreaks is driven by the confluence of the cyclic dynamics of striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) populations and climate variability, at both seasonal and interannual cycles. Two climatic variables play key roles in the ecology of the HTNV system: temperature and rainfall. These variables account for the dynamics in the host reservoir system and markedly affect both the rate of transmission and the potential risk of outbreaks. Our results suggest that outbreaks of HTNV infection occur only when climatic conditions are favorable for both rodent population growth and virus transmission. These findings improve our understanding of how climate drives the periodic reemergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks over long timescales.
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Wei Y, Huang Y, Li X, Ma Y, Tao X, Wu X, Yang Z. Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005447. [PMID: 28273079 PMCID: PMC5358896 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2016] [Revised: 03/20/2017] [Accepted: 03/01/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives We aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China. Methods We obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus. Results Wavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8–12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24–36 months. The DLNM model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the incidence scrub typhus has two main temporal cycles. Determining the reason for this trend and how it can be used for disease control and prevention requires additional research. The transmission of scrub typhus is highly dependent on climate factors and rodent density, both of which should be considered in prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus. Scrub typhus has been endemic in southern China for several decades. In recent years, it has been increasingly reported and has become a significant health concern in China. The incidence of scrub typhus, a vector-borne disease, is influenced by the density of rats and changes in climate. Several studies have focused on the influence of climate and rat density on scrub typhus independent of one another; however, few studies investigate such factors simultaneously. Furthermore, global climate events such as El Niño have not been considered in any study of scrub typhus risk factors. This study reports novel factor research of scrub typhus in southern China. Data of climate, rat density and cases were collected on a monthly basis. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus. Finally, relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were identified as risk factors of the incidence of scrub typhus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuehong Wei
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Yong Huang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Xiaoning Li
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Yu Ma
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Xia Tao
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Xinwei Wu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Zhicong Yang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
- * E-mail:
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Principles of Infectious Diseases: Transmission, Diagnosis, Prevention, and Control. INTERNATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PUBLIC HEALTH 2017. [PMCID: PMC7150340 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-803678-5.00516-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
Infectious disease control and prevention relies on a thorough understanding of the factors determining transmission. This article summarizes the fundamental principles of infectious disease transmission while highlighting many of the agent, host, and environmental determinants of these diseases that are of particular import to public health professionals. Basic principles of infectious disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are also reviewed.
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Ge L, Zhao Y, Sheng Z, Wang N, Zhou K, Mu X, Guo L, Wang T, Yang Z, Huo X. Construction of a Seasonal Difference-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (SD-GTWR) Model and Comparative Analysis with GWR-Based Models for Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) in Hubei Province (China). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2016; 13:E1062. [PMID: 27801870 PMCID: PMC5129272 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13111062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2016] [Revised: 10/08/2016] [Accepted: 10/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is considered a globally distributed infectious disease which results in many deaths annually in Hubei Province, China. In order to conduct a better analysis and accurately predict HFRS incidence in Hubei Province, a new model named Seasonal Difference-Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (SD-GTWR) was constructed. The SD-GTWR model, which integrates the analysis and relationship of seasonal difference, spatial and temporal characteristics of HFRS (HFRS was characterized by spatiotemporal heterogeneity and it is seasonally distributed), was designed to illustrate the latent relationships between the spatio-temporal pattern of the HFRS epidemic and its influencing factors. Experiments from the study demonstrated that SD-GTWR model is superior to traditional models such as GWR- based models in terms of the efficiency and the ability of providing influencing factor analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liang Ge
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
- Tianjin Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Tianjin 300381, China.
| | - Youlin Zhao
- Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
| | - Zhongjie Sheng
- Tianjin Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Tianjin 300381, China.
| | - Ning Wang
- First Crust Deformation Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Tianjin 300180, China.
| | - Kui Zhou
- Tianjin Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Tianjin 300381, China.
| | - Xiangming Mu
- School of Information Studies of University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53211, USA.
| | - Liqiang Guo
- Tianjin Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Tianjin 300381, China.
| | - Teng Wang
- Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
| | - Zhanqiu Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Virology, Institute of Medical Virology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
| | - Xixiang Huo
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China.
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Prist PR, Uriarte M, Tambosi LR, Prado A, Pardini R, D´Andrea PS, Metzger JP. Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0163459. [PMID: 27780250 PMCID: PMC5079598 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2016] [Accepted: 09/08/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993–2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paula Ribeiro Prist
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | - Maria Uriarte
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York City, NY, United States of America
| | - Leandro Reverberi Tambosi
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York City, NY, United States of America
| | - Amanda Prado
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Renata Pardini
- Department of Zoology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Paulo Sérgio D´Andrea
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Jean Paul Metzger
- Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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Abstract
Understanding pathogen exchange among human, wildlife, and livestock populations, and the varying ecological and cultural contexts in which this exchange takes place, is a major challenge. The present review contextualizes the risk factors that result from human interactions with livestock, companion animals, animal exhibits, wildlife through nature-based tourism, and wildlife through consumption. Given their phylogenetic relatedness to humans, primates are emphasized in this discussion; primates serve as reservoirs for several human pathogens, and some human pathogens can decimate wild primate populations. Anthropologists must play a central role in understanding cultural variation in attitudes toward other species as well as perceived risks when interacting with animals. I argue that the remediation of emerging infectious diseases will be accomplished primarily through human behavioral changes rather than through efforts in pathogen discovery. Given the history of human interactions with wildlife, candid discussions on zoonotic diseases will be increasingly important for our combined survival.
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Louten J. Emerging and Reemerging Viral Diseases. ESSENTIAL HUMAN VIROLOGY 2016. [PMCID: PMC7149331 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-800947-5.00016-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
An emerging infectious disease (EID) is defined as a disease caused by a pathogen that has not been observed previously within a population or geographic location. Viruses are a major cause of EIDs, particularly −ssRNA viruses. Many variables are involved in the emergence or reemergence of viruses. These can be classified into human factors, environmental/ecological factors, and viral factors and include urbanization, globalization, weather and climate change, and the genetic composition of the virus. The great majority of emerging viral diseases are zoonoses, notably transmitted by arthropods and nonhuman mammals. Flaviviruses include several notable vector-transmitted viruses, while rodents and bats are thought to be the natural reservoirs of arenaviruses and filoviruses, respectively. This chapter discusses several notable outbreaks of emerging and reemerging viruses, including the 2014–15 outbreak of Ebolavirus in West Africa.
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Wu X, Lu Y, Zhou S, Chen L, Xu B. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2016; 86:14-23. [PMID: 26479830 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 357] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2015] [Revised: 08/28/2015] [Accepted: 09/02/2015] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoxu Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yongmei Lu
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666-4684, USA.
| | - Sen Zhou
- Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Lifan Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Bing Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
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Xiao H, Huang R, Gao LD, Huang CR, Lin XL, Li N, Liu HN, Tong SL, Tian HY. Effects of Humidity Variation on the Hantavirus Infection and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Occurrence in Subtropical China. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2015; 94:420-7. [PMID: 26711521 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2015] [Accepted: 10/31/2015] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Infection rates of rodents have a significant influence on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). In this study, four cities and two counties with high HFRS incidence in eastern Hunan Province in China were studied, and surveillance data of rodents, as well as HFRS cases and related environmental variables from 2007 to 2010, were collected. Results indicate that the distribution and infection rates of rodents are closely associated with environmental conditions. Hantavirus infections in rodents were positively correlated with temperature vegetation dryness index and negatively correlated with elevation. The predictive risk maps based on multivariate regression model revealed that the annual variation of infection risks is small, whereas monthly variation is large and corresponded well to the seasonal variation of human HFRS incidence. The identification of risk factors and risk prediction provides decision support for rodent surveillance and the prevention and control of HFRS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong Xiao
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Ru Huang
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Li-Dong Gao
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Cun-Rui Huang
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiao-Ling Lin
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Na Li
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Hai-Ning Liu
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Shi-Lu Tong
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Huai-Yu Tian
- College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China; School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Weizikeng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
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Yusa A, Berry P, J Cheng J, Ogden N, Bonsal B, Stewart R, Waldick R. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:8359-412. [PMID: 26193300 PMCID: PMC4515727 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120708359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2015] [Revised: 07/03/2015] [Accepted: 07/08/2015] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Yusa
- Environmental Health Program, Health Canada, 180 Queen St. West, Toronto, ON M5V 3L7, Canada.
| | - Peter Berry
- Climate Change and Health Office, Health Canada, 269 Laurier Ave. West, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada.
| | - June J Cheng
- Sherbourne Health Centre, 333 Sherbourne St., Toronto, ON M5A 2S5, Canada.
| | - Nicholas Ogden
- Centre for Food-Borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Sicotte, P.O. Box 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 7C6, Canada.
| | - Barrie Bonsal
- Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment Canada, 11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 3H5, Canada.
| | - Ronald Stewart
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba, 70A Dysart Road, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada.
| | - Ruth Waldick
- Environmental Health, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 960 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, ON K1A 0Z2, Canada.
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada.
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Carver S, Mills JN, Parmenter CA, Parmenter RR, Richardson KS, Harris RL, Douglass RJ, Kuenzi AJ, Luis AD. Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus. Bioscience 2015; 65:651-666. [PMID: 26955081 PMCID: PMC4776718 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biv047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott Carver
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - James N Mills
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Cheryl A Parmenter
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Robert R Parmenter
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Kyle S Richardson
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Rachel L Harris
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Richard J Douglass
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Amy J Kuenzi
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
| | - Angela D Luis
- Scott Carver ( ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula
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Christaki E. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases. Virulence 2015; 6:558-65. [PMID: 26068569 DOI: 10.1080/21505594.2015.1040975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eirini Christaki
- a Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention; First Department of Internal Medicine; AHEPA University Hospital ; Thessaloniki , Greece.,b Infectious Diseases Division; Alpert School of Medicine of Brown University ; Providence , RI USA
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48
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Smith MC, Gomulkiewicz R, Mack RN. Potential role of masting by introduced bamboos in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) population irruptions holds public health consequences. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0124419. [PMID: 25898267 PMCID: PMC4405191 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2014] [Accepted: 03/13/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We hypothesized that the ongoing naturalization of frost/shade tolerant Asian bamboos in North America could cause environmental consequences involving introduced bamboos, native rodents and ultimately humans. More specifically, we asked whether the eventual masting by an abundant leptomorphic (“running”) bamboo within Pacific Northwest coniferous forests could produce a temporary surfeit of food capable of driving a population irruption of a common native seed predator, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), a hantavirus carrier. Single-choice and cafeteria-style feeding trials were conducted for deer mice with seeds of two bamboo species (Bambusa distegia and Yushania brevipaniculata), wheat, Pinus ponderosa, and native mixed diets compared to rodent laboratory feed. Adult deer mice consumed bamboo seeds as readily as they consumed native seeds. In the cafeteria-style feeding trials, Y. brevipaniculata seeds were consumed at the same rate as native seeds but more frequently than wheat seeds or rodent laboratory feed. Females produced a median litter of 4 pups on a bamboo diet. Given the ability of deer mice to reproduce frequently whenever food is abundant, we employed our feeding trial results in a modified Rosenzweig-MacArthur consumer-resource model to project the population-level response of deer mice to a suddenly available/rapidly depleted supply of bamboo seeds. The simulations predict rodent population irruptions and declines similar to reported cycles involving Asian and South American rodents but unprecedented in deer mice. Following depletion of a mast seed supply, the incidence of Sin Nombre Virus (SNV) transmission to humans could subsequently rise with dispersal of the peridomestic deer mice into nearby human settlements seeking food.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melissa C. Smith
- USDA-ARS, Invasive Plant Research Laboratory, 3225 College Ave, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Richard Gomulkiewicz
- Washington State University, School of Biological Sciences, Pullman, Washington, United States of America
| | - Richard N. Mack
- Washington State University, School of Biological Sciences, Pullman, Washington, United States of America
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49
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Thoma BR, Müller J, Bässler C, Georgi E, Osterberg A, Schex S, Bottomley C, Essbauer SS. Identification of factors influencing the Puumala virus seroprevalence within its reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment. Viruses 2014; 6:3944-67. [PMID: 25341661 PMCID: PMC4213572 DOI: 10.3390/v6103944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2014] [Revised: 09/03/2014] [Accepted: 09/29/2014] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%–7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails).
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Affiliation(s)
- Bryan R Thoma
- Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany.
| | - Jörg Müller
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany.
| | - Claus Bässler
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany.
| | - Enrico Georgi
- Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany.
| | - Anja Osterberg
- Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany.
| | - Susanne Schex
- Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany.
| | - Christian Bottomley
- MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
| | - Sandra S Essbauer
- Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany.
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50
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Li Q, Zhao W, Wei Y, Han X, Han Z, Zhang Y, Qi S, Xu Y. Analysis of incidence and related factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hebei Province, China. PLoS One 2014; 9:e101348. [PMID: 25000390 PMCID: PMC4084888 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0101348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2014] [Accepted: 06/06/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease in Hebei province, China. The average annual incidence is 3.10/100000. Although the incidence of HFRS is stable with a general decline in trend since 2004, an increase in the trend was observed in 2011. Few studies have been conducted to investigate the underlying risk factors for this disease. METHODS The epidemiological data of HFRS and the population data, meteorology, and remote sensing aspects of cities in Hebei province from 1999 to 2011 were collected. The epidemiological data included the population density in the region, seasonal data and rat density and rat's virus carriage rate. The data were analyzed by descriptive study, correlation analysis and multivariate linear analysis. RESULTS There were 26837 cases of HFRS was reported from 1999 to 2011. The infection occurred mainly in males, aged 20∼49 years, who were farmers. Rattus norvegicus was the main host animal. The incidence of HFRS was related to NDVI value, rat density and rat's virus carriage rate by multiple linear regression (F = 25.936, P<0.01). The pseudo- R2value for the model was 0.644. CONCLUSION The incidence of HFRS was related to NDVI value, rat density and rat's virus carriage rate. Control of these factors should be used to prevent HFRS in Hebei province.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Li
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
- * E-mail:
| | - WenNa Zhao
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
| | - YaMei Wei
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
| | - Xu Han
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
| | - ZhanYing Han
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
| | - YanBo Zhang
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
| | - ShunXiang Qi
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
| | - YongGang Xu
- Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control, Hebei Province Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
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