Evaluation of newer risk markers for coronary heart disease risk classification: a cohort study

Ethnic Disparities in the Risk Factors, Morbidity, and Mortality of Cardiovascular Disease in People With Diabetes

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in people with diabetes. Compared with European Americans, African Americans have more favorable lipid profiles, as indicated by higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lower triglycerides, and less dense low-density lipoprotein particles. The less atherogenic lipid profile translates to lower incidence and prevalence of CVD in African Americans with diabetes, despite higher rates of hypertension and obesity. However, African Americans with CVD experience worse clinical outcomes, including higher mortality, compared with European Americans. This mini-review summarizes the epidemiology, pathophysiology, mechanisms, and management of CVD in people with diabetes, focusing on possible factors underlying the "African American CVD paradox" (lower CVD incidence/prevalence but worse outcomes). Although the reasons for the disparities in CVD outcomes remain to be fully elucidated, we present a critical appraisal of the roles of suboptimal control of risk factors, inequities in care delivery, several biological factors, and psychosocial stress. We identify gaps in current knowledge and propose areas for future investigation.

The association between C-reactive protein and coronary artery calcification: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

While coronary artery calcification (CAC) is recognized as a reliable marker for coronary atherosclerosis, the relationship between the concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) and the incidence and progression of CAC remains controversial.

METHOD

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus were systematically searched to identify relevant observational studies until October 2023. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). A random-effects meta-analysis was employed to calculate pooled odd ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals, considering heterogeneity among the studies.

RESULTS

Out of the 2545 records, 42 cross-sectional and 9 cohort studies were included in the systematic review. The meta-analysis on 12 eligible cross-sectional studies revealed no significant association between CAC and CRP [pooled OR: 1.03 (1.00, 1.06)]. Additionally, an insignificant association was found between CAC and CRP through meta-analysis on three eligible cohort studies [pooled OR: 1.05 (0.95, 1.15)] with no considerable heterogeneity across studies. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the meta-analysis models were robust. There was no evidence of publication bias.

CONCLUSION

Based on the meta-analysis findings, elevated levels of CRP did not emerge as a valuable prognostic maker for CAC incidence and progression prediction.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score for cardiovascular risk stratification in a Thai clinical cohort: A comparison of absolute scores and age-sex-specific percentiles

Purposes

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score provides a quantification of atherosclerotic plaque within the coronary arteries. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and CAC score distribution and to evaluate the association of each CAC score classifications with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in a Thai clinical cohort.

Methods

This study was a retrospective observational cohort. We included patients aged above 35 years who underwent CAC score testing. The absolute and age-sex specific percentile classifications were categorized as 0, 1 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 400, and >400 and 0, <75th, 75th - 90th, and >90th, respectively. The endpoint was MACE, including cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, coronary artery revascularization procedure, and stroke. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios. The discriminative performance between classifications were compared using Harrell's C-statistics. The agreement was assessed via Cohen's Kappa.

Results

This study included 440 patients, with approximately 70% of Thai patients exhibiting a CAC score. CAC score distributed higher in male than female and increased with age. Both CAC score classification demonstrated the acceptable predictive performance. However, fair agreement was observed between classifications (Cohen's kappa 0.51, 95%CI 0.42-0.59). Within the absolute classification, a higher CAC score was associated with increased hazard ratios for MACE across stratified age-sex-specific percentile levels. In contrast, the hazard ratios for MACE did not consistently rise with higher age-sex-specific percentile CAC score when stratified by absolute CAC score levels.

Conclusions

Both absolute and age-sex-specific percentile CAC score demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting MACE. However, the absolute CAC score classification may be more suitable for risk stratification within the Thai clinical cohort. Our findings offer supportive information that could inform future recommendations for CAC score testing criteria within national clinical practice guidelines.

Opportunistic screening for coronary artery calcium deposition using chest radiographs - a multi-objective models with multi-modal data fusion

Background

To create an opportunistic screening strategy by multitask deep learning methods to stratify prediction for coronary artery calcium (CAC) and associated cardiovascular risk with frontal chest x-rays (CXR) and minimal data from electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

In this retrospective study, 2,121 patients with available computed tomography (CT) scans and corresponding CXR images were collected internally (Mayo Enterprise) with calculated CAC scores binned into 3 categories (0, 1-99, and 100+) as ground truths for model training. Results from the internal training were tested on multiple external datasets (domestic (EUH) and foreign (VGHTPE)) with significant racial and ethnic differences and classification performance was compared.

Findings

Classification performance between 0, 1-99, and 100+ CAC scores performed moderately on both the internal test and external datasets, reaching average f1-score of 0.66 for Mayo, 0.62 for EUH and 0.61 for VGHTPE. For the clinically relevant binary task of 0 vs 400+ CAC classification, the performance of our model on the internal test and external datasets reached an average AUCROC of 0.84.

Interpretation

The fusion model trained on CXR performed better (0.84 average AUROC on internal and external dataset) than existing state-of-the-art models on predicting CAC scores only on internal (0.73 AUROC), with robust performance on external datasets. Thus, our proposed model may be used as a robust, first-pass opportunistic screening method for cardiovascular risk from regular chest radiographs. For community use, trained model and the inference code can be downloaded with an academic open-source license from https://github.com/jeong-jasonji/MTL_CAC_classification .

Funding

The study was partially supported by National Institute of Health 1R01HL155410-01A1 award.

The usefulness of global longitudinal peak strain and left atrial volume index in predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with ischemic stroke

Introduction

Detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) is crucial for preventing recurrence in patients with ischemic stroke. We aimed to examine whether the left atrial volume index (LAVI) and global longitudinal peak strain (GLPS) are associated with AF in patients with ischemic stroke.

Methods

We prospectively analyzed 678 consecutive patients with ischemic stroke. LAVI and GLPS were assessed using three-dimensional transthoracic echocardiography with speckle-tracking imaging. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of AF with LAVI and GLPS. To evaluate the predictive value of LAVI and GLPS for the presence of AF, we used optimism-corrected c-statistics calculated by 100 bootstrap repetitions and the net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

The mean patient age was 68 ± 13 years (men, 60%). Patients with AF (18%) were a higher LAVI (41.7 ml/m2 vs. 74.9 ml/m2, P < 0.001) and a higher GLPS than those without AF (-14.0 vs. -17.3, P < 0.001). Among the 89 patients classified with embolic stroke of unknown source, the probable cardioembolic group had higher GLPS (n= 17, -14.6 vs. -18.6, respectively; P= 0.014) than the other groups (n= 72). Adding GLPS to age, hypertension, and the LAVI significantly improved the NRI, with an overall NRI improvement of 6.1% (P= 0.03).

Discussion

The LAVI andGLPS with speckle-tracking imaging echocardiography may help identify patients with AF.

Whole-genome sequencing uncovers two loci for coronary artery calcification and identifies ARSE as a regulator of vascular calcification

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a measure of atherosclerosis and a well-established predictor of coronary artery disease (CAD) events. Here we describe a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of CAC in 22,400 participants from multiple ancestral groups. We confirmed associations with four known loci and identified two additional loci associated with CAC (ARSE and MMP16), with evidence of significant associations in replication analyses for both novel loci. Functional assays of ARSE and MMP16 in human vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) demonstrate that ARSE is a promoter of VSMC calcification and VSMC phenotype switching from a contractile to a calcifying or osteogenic phenotype. Furthermore, we show that the association of variants near ARSE with reduced CAC is likely explained by reduced ARSE expression with the G allele of enhancer variant rs5982944. Our study highlights ARSE as an important contributor to atherosclerotic vascular calcification, and a potential drug target for vascular calcific disease.

Association of serum thyroid hormone and coronary artery calcification in patients who underwent invasive coronary angiography: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Thyroid hormones (TH) are known to have a range of effects on the cardiovascular system. However, there is still controversy regarding the relationship between thyroid function and coronary artery calcification (CAC). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between TH and CAC, especially severe CAC, in patients who underwent invasive coronary angiography (ICA). This may provide further insights into the potential role of TH in the development and progression of cardiovascular disease.

METHOD

This observational study included 4221 patients who underwent ICA after completing CTA in a single center. We collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from electronic medical records and measured CAC scores via non-contrast cardiac CT.

RESULT

The study found that there is a negative correlation between the CAC score and FT3 level, even after adjusting for potential confounding factors, but there was no correlation between the CAC score and FT4 or TSH. When categorized into quartiles, the highest quartile of FT3 was associated with a decrease (β = -104.37, 95%CI: -172.54, -36.21) in calcification score compared to the lowest quartile. This correlation was more significant in the subgroup of individuals with diabetes or hypertension.

CONCLUSION

The study found a negative correlation between FT3 and CAC in patients who underwent ICA. The correlation was consistent with other studies and may suggest that low levels of FT3 are associated with severe CAC. The study may provide new evidence for future research on CAC and potential therapeutic approaches.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide study identifies effector genes and druggable pathways for coronary artery calcification

Coronary artery calcification (CAC), a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis, predicts future symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). Identifying genetic risk factors for CAC may point to new therapeutic avenues for prevention. Currently, there are only four known risk loci for CAC identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the general population. Here we conducted the largest multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analysis of CAC to date, which comprised 26,909 individuals of European ancestry and 8,867 individuals of African ancestry. We identified 11 independent risk loci, of which eight were new for CAC and five had not been reported for CAD. These new CAC loci are related to bone mineralization, phosphate catabolism and hormone metabolic pathways. Several new loci harbor candidate causal genes supported by multiple lines of functional evidence and are regulators of smooth muscle cell-mediated calcification ex vivo and in vitro. Together, these findings help refine the genetic architecture of CAC and extend our understanding of the biological and potential druggable pathways underlying CAC.

Coronary Artery Calcium in Assessment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and its Role in Primary Prevention

Coronary artery calcium (CAC), which is detected using computed tomography scanning, is a well-established indicator of subclinical atherosclerosis. The CAC score is independently associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) outcomes and provides improved predictive values for estimating the risk of ASCVD beyond traditional risk factors. Thus, CAC is considered to have important implications for reclassification as a decision aid among individuals in the preclinical phase and as the primary prevention of ASCVD. This review is focused on epidemiological evidence on CAC in asymptomatic population-based samples from Western countries and Japan. We also discuss the usability of CAC as a tool for assessing ASCVD risk and its role in the primary prevention of ASCVD. A lack of evidence for the CAC score in ASCVD risk assessment beyond traditional risk factors in populations other than those in Western countries (including Japan) warrants further investigation. Clinical trials are also necessary to demonstrate the usefulness and safety of CAC screening in the primary prevention of ASCVD.

Estimating Triglyceride Levels Using Total Cholesterol, Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective: Triglyceride (TG) levels are affected by food intake, and the cutoff values for nonfasting TG levels vary. This study aimed to calculate fasting TG levels based on total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. Methods: Multiple regression analysis was performed to determine estimated triglyceride (eTG) levels using data from 39,971 participants divided into six groups based on non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (nHDL-C) levels (<100, <130, <160, <190, <220, and ≥220 mg/dL). Results: Provided that fasting TG and eTG levels ≥150 mg/dL were positive and those <150 mg/dL were negative, the three groups (nHDL-C levels <100, <130, and <160 mg/dL) consisting of 28,616 participants had a false-positive rate of <5%. The coefficient and constant terms in the formula for the eTG in groups with nHDL-C levels <100, <130, and <160 mg/dL were as follows: constant terms, 12.193, 0.741, and -7.157; coefficients of LDL-C, -3.999, -4.409, and -5.145; coefficients of HDL-C, -3.869, -4.555, and -5.215; and coefficients of TC, 3.984, 4.547, and 5.231, respectively. The adjusted coefficients of determination were 0.547, 0.593, and 0.678, respectively (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Fasting TG levels can be calculated from TC, LDL-C, and HDL-C levels when nHDL-C levels are <160 mg/dL. Using nonfasting TG and eTG levels as indicators of hypertriglyceridemia might eliminate the need for venous sampling after overnight fasting.

Assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: a 2023 update

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this study was to highlight the current best practice for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk evaluation, including selective use of adjunctive tools for risk stratification [e.g. coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring] and risk enhancement [e.g. lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], polygenic risk scoring (PRS)].

RECENT FINDINGS

New studies have evaluated the efficacy of various risk assessment tools. These studies demonstrate the role of Lp(a) as a risk-enhancing factor ready for more widespread use. CAC is the gold standard method of assessing subclinical atherosclerosis, enabling true risk stratification of patients, and informing net benefit assessment for initiating or titrating lipid-lowering therapy (LLT).

SUMMARY

Lp(a) concentration and CAC scoring, apart from the traditional risk factors, add the most value to the current CVD risk assessment approaches of all available tools, especially in terms of guiding LLT. In addition to new integrative tools such as the MESA CHD Risk Score and Coronary Age calculator, the future of risk assessment may include PRS and more advanced imaging techniques for atherosclerosis burden. Soon, polygenic risk scoring may be used to identify the age at which to begin CAC scoring, with CAC scores guiding preventive strategies.

Historical Review of the Use of Relative Risk Statistics in the Portrayal of the Purported Hazards of High LDL Cholesterol and the Benefits of Lipid-Lowering Therapy

The manner in which clinical trial investigators present their findings to healthcare providers and the public can have a substantial influence on their impact. For example, if a heart attack occurs in 2% of those in the placebo group and in 1% of those in the drug-treated group, the benefit to the treated population is only one percentage point better than no treatment. This finding is unlikely to generate much enthusiasm from the study sponsors and in the reporting of the findings to the public. Instead, trial directors can amplify the magnitude of the appearance of the treatment benefit by using the relative risk (RR) value of a 50% reduction of the risk of a heart attack, since one is 50% of two. By using the RR type of data analysis, clinical trial directors can promote the outcome of their trial in their publication and to the media as highly successful while minimizing or disregarding entirely the absolute risk (AR) reduction of only one percentage point. The practice of expressing the RR without the AR has become routinely deployed in the reporting of findings in many different areas of clinical research. We have provided a historical perspective on how this form of data presentation has become commonplace in the reporting of findings from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on coronary heart disease (CHD) event monitoring and prevention over the past four decades. We assert that the emphasis on RR coupled with insufficient disclosure of AR in the reporting of RCT outcomes has led healthcare providers and the public to overestimate concerns about high cholesterol and to be misled as to the magnitude of the benefits of cholesterol-lowering therapy. The goal of this review is to prompt the scientific community to address this misleading approach to data presentation.

Correlation between osteoprotegerin and coronary artery calcification in diabetic subjects: a systematic review of observational studies

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is one of the critical cardiovascular complications that lead to elevated morbidity and mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2M). The association between osteoprotegerin (OPG) and CAC could potentially provide a reasonable chance for preventive therapy in type 2 diabetic patients and benefit the rate of mortality. Since measurement of CAC score is relatively expensive and requires radiation exposure, the current systematic review aims to provide clinical evidence for evaluating the prognostic role of OPG in determining CAC risk among subjects with T2M. Web of Science, PubMed, Embase, and Scopus, were investigated until July 2022. We assessed human studies investigating the association of OPG with CAC in type 2 diabetic patients. Quality assessment was performed by Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scales (NOS). Out of 459 records, 7 studies remained eligible to be included. Observational studies that provided odds ratio (OR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between OPG and the risk of CAC were analyzed by random-effects model. In order to provide a visual summary of our findings, the estimation of pooled OR from cross-sectional studies was reported as 2.86 [95% CI 1.49-5.49], which is consistent with the findings of the cohort study. Results revealed that the association between OPG and CAC was significant among diabetic patients. OPG is hypothesized to be a potential marker in predicting the presence of high coronary calcium score among subjects with T2M that could be recognized as a novel target for further pharmacological investigations.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Noninvasive Plaque Imaging to Accelerate Coronary Artery Disease Drug Development

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains the leading cause of adult mortality globally. Targeting known modifiable risk factors has had substantial benefit, but there remains a need for new approaches. Improvements in invasive and noninvasive imaging techniques have enabled an increasing recognition of distinct quantitative phenotypes of coronary atherosclerosis that are prognostically relevant. There are marked differences in plaque phenotype, from the high-risk, lipid-rich, thin-capped atheroma to the low-risk, quiescent, eccentric, nonobstructive calcified plaque. Such distinct phenotypes reflect different pathophysiologic pathways and are associated with different risks for acute ischemic events. Noninvasive coronary imaging techniques, such as computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and coronary magnetic resonance imaging, have major potential to accelerate cardiovascular drug development, which has been affected by the high costs and protracted timelines of cardiovascular outcome trials. This may be achieved through enrichment of high-risk phenotypes with higher event rates or as primary end points of drug efficacy, at least in phase 2 trials, in a manner historically performed through intravascular coronary imaging studies. Herein, we provide a comprehensive review of the current technology available and its application in clinical trials, including implications for sample size requirements, as well as potential limitations. In its effort to accelerate drug development, the US Food and Drug Administration has approved surrogate end points for 120 conditions, but not for CAD. There are robust data showing the beneficial effects of drugs, including statins, on CAD progression and plaque stabilization in a manner that correlates with established clinical end points of mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. This, together with a clear mechanistic rationale for using imaging as a surrogate CAD end point, makes it timely for CAD imaging end points to be considered. We discuss the importance of global consensus on these imaging end points and protocols and partnership with regulatory bodies to build a more informed, sustainable staged pathway for novel therapies.

Machine learning derived ECG risk score improves cardiovascular risk assessment in conjunction with coronary artery calcium scoring

Background

Precision estimation of cardiovascular risk remains the cornerstone of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) prevention. While coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is the best available non-invasive quantitative modality to evaluate risk of ASCVD, it excludes risk related to prior myocardial infarction, cardiomyopathy, and arrhythmia which are implicated in ASCVD. The high-dimensional and inter-correlated nature of ECG data makes it a good candidate for analysis using machine learning techniques and may provide additional prognostic information not captured by CAC. In this study, we aimed to develop a quantitative ECG risk score (eRiS) to predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) alone, or when added to CAC. Further, we aimed to construct and validate a novel nomogram incorporating ECG, CAC and clinical factors for ASCVD.

Methods

We analyzed 5,864 patients with at least 1 cardiovascular risk factor who underwent CAC scoring and a standard ECG as part of the CLARIFY study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04075162). Events were defined as myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, stroke or death. A total of 649 ECG features, consisting of measurements such as amplitude and interval measurements from all deflections in the ECG waveform (53 per lead and 13 overall) were automatically extracted using a clinical software (GE Muse™ Cardiology Information System, GE Healthcare). The data was split into 4 training (S_tr) and internal validation (S_v) sets [S_tr (1): S_v (1): 50:50; S_tr (2): S_v (2): 60:40; S_tr (3): S_v (3): 70:30; S_tr (4): S_v (4): 80:20], and the results were compared across all the subsets. We used the ECG features derived from S_tr to develop eRiS. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-Cox (LASSO-Cox) regularization model was used for data dimension reduction, feature selection, and eRiS construction. A Cox-proportional hazards model was used to assess the benefit of using an eRiS alone (M_ecg), CAC alone (M_cac) and a combination of eRiS and CAC (M_ecg+cac) for MACE prediction. A nomogram (M_nom) was further constructed by integrating eRiS with CAC and demographics (age and sex). The primary endpoint of the study was the assessment of the performance of M_ecg, M_cac, M_ecg+cac and M_nom in predicting CV disease-free survival in ASCVD.

Findings

Over a median follow-up of 14 months, 494 patients had MACE. The feature selection strategy preserved only about 18% of the features that were consistent across the various strata (S_tr). The M_ecg model, comprising of eRiS alone was found to be significantly associated with MACE and had good discrimination of MACE (C-Index: 0.7, p = <2e-16). eRiS could predict time-to MACE (C-Index: 0.6, p = <2e-16 across all S_v). The M_ecg+cac model was associated with MACE (C-index: 0.71). Model comparison showed that M_ecg+cac was superior to M_ecg (p = 1.8e-10) or M_cac (p < 2.2e-16) alone. The M_nom, comprising of eRiS, CAC, age and sex was associated with MACE (C-index 0.71). eRiS had the most significant contribution, followed by CAC score and other clinical variables. Further, M_nom was able to identify unique patient risk-groups based on eRiS, CAC and clinical variables.

Conclusion

The use of ECG features in conjunction with CAC may allow for improved prognostication and identification of populations at risk. Future directions will involve prospective validation of the risk score and the nomogram across diverse populations with a heterogeneity of treatment effects.

Statin therapy is not warranted for a person with high LDL-cholesterol on a low-carbohydrate diet

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although there is an extensive literature on the efficacy of the low carbohydrate diet (LCD) for weight loss and in the management of type 2 diabetes, concerns have been raised that the LCD may increase cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by increasing the level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). We have assessed the value of LDL-C as a CVD risk factor, as well as effects of the LCD on other CVD risk factors. We have also reviewed findings that provide guidance as to whether statin therapy would be beneficial for individuals with high LDL-C on an LCD.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multiple longitudinal trials have demonstrated the safety and effectiveness of the LCD, while also providing evidence of improvements in the most reliable CVD risk factors. Recent findings have also confirmed how ineffective LDL-C is in predicting CVD risk.

SUMMARY

Extensive research has demonstrated the efficacy of the LCD to improve the most robust CVD risk factors, such as hyperglycemia, hypertension, and atherogenic dyslipidemia. Our review of the literature indicates that statin therapy for both primary and secondary prevention of CVD is not warranted for individuals on an LCD with elevated LDL-C who have achieved a low triglyceride/HDL ratio.

Automated coronary artery calcium scoring in patients with breast cancer to assess the risk of heart disease following adjuvant radiation therapy

Aim

Validation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores as prognostic factors of acute coronary events (ACE) development in breast cancer patients are demanded. We investigated prognostic impact of CAC on ACE development with cardiac exposure to radiation.

Methods

We evaluated breast cancer patients with (n = 511) or without (n = 600) adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) between 2005 and 2013. CAC Agatston scores were analyzed using a deep-learning-based algorithm. Individual mean heart dose (MHD) was calculated, and no RT was categorized as 0 Gy. The primary endpoint was the development of ACE following breast surgery.

Results

In the RT and no-RT cohorts, 11.2% and 3.7% exhibited CAC >0, respectively. Over a 9.3-year follow-up period, the 10-year ACE rate was 0.7%. In the multivariate analysis, the CAC score was a significant risk factor for ACE (CAC >0 vs CAC = 0, 10-year 6.2% vs 0.2%, P < 0.001). In the subgroup with CAC >0, the 10-year ACE rates were 0%, 3.7%, and 13.7% for patients receiving mean heart doses of 0 Gy, 0–3 Gy, and >3 Gy, respectively (P = 0.133). Although CAC score was not predictive for non-ACE heart disease risk (P > 0.05), the 10-year non-ACE heart disease rates were 1.7%, 5.7%, and 7.1% for patients with CAC = 0 receiving MHD of 0 Gy, 0–3 Gy, and >3 Gy, respectively (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The CAC score was a significant predictor of ACE in patients with breast cancer. Although further studies are required, CAC score screening on simulation CT in patients undergoing breast RT can help identify those with high risk for ACE on a per-patient basis.

•

CAC score was successfully validated as a strong predictive factor for ACEs.

•

MHD was identified as a significant factor in development of ACE and NAHD.

•

Best efforts should be made to keep the dose to cardiac structures as low as possible.

Moth-Flame Optimization for Early Prediction of Heart Diseases

Heart disease is among the leading causes of mortality globally. Predicting cardiovascular disease is a major difficulty in clinical data analysis. AI has been demonstrated to be powerful in deciding and anticipating an enormous measure of information created by the health domain. We provide a unique method for finding essential traits employing machine learning approaches in this paper, which enhances the effectiveness of identifying heart diseases. Decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) are the classification techniques used to create the proposed system. Ensemble stacking integrates the four classification models to create a single best-fit predictive model using logistic regression. Many explorations have been directed at the identification of cardiac infection; however, the exactness of the outcomes is poor. Accordingly, to further enhance the efficiency, Moth-Flame Optimization (MFO) algorithm is proposed. The feature selection strategies are used to improve the classification accuracy while shortening the execution time of the classification system. Medical data are used to assess the probability of heart disease based on BP, age, gender, chest ache, cholesterol, blood sugar, and other variables. Results revealed that the proposed system excelled other existing models, obtaining 99% accuracy in the Cleveland dataset.

Prognostic Modelling Studies of Coronary Heart Disease—A Systematic Review of Conventional and Genetic Risk Factor Studies

This study aims to provide an overview of multivariable prognostic modelling studies developed for coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population and to explore the optimal prognostic model by comparing the models’ performance. A systematic review was performed using Embase, PubMed, Cochrane, Web of Science, and Scopus databases until 30 November 2019. In this work, only prognostic studies describing conventional risk factors alone or a combination of conventional and genomic risk factors, being developmental and/or validation prognostic studies of a multivariable model, were included. A total of 4021 records were screened by titles and abstracts, and 72 articles were eligible. All the relevant studies were checked by comparing the discrimination, reclassification, and calibration measures. Most of the models were developed in the United States and Canada and targeted the general population. The models included a set of similar predictors, such as age, sex, smoking, cholesterol level, blood pressure, BMI, and diabetes mellitus. In this study, many articles were identified and screened for consistency and reliability using CHARM and GRIPS statements. However, the usefulness of most prognostic models was not demonstrated; only a limited number of these models supported clinical evidence. Unfortunately, substantial heterogeneity was recognized in the definition and outcome of CHD events. The inclusion of genetic risk scores in addition to conventional risk factors might help in predicting the incidence of CHDs; however, the generalizability of the existing prognostic models remains open. Validation studies for the existing developmental models are needed to ensure generalizability, improve the research quality, and increase the transparency of the study.

Cohen's Kappa Coefficient as a Measure to Assess Classification Improvement following the Addition of a New Marker to a Regression Model

The need to search for new measures describing the classification of a logistic regression model stems from the difficulty in searching for previously unknown factors that predict the occurrence of a disease. A classification quality assessment can be performed by testing the change in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Another approach is to use the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI), which is based on a comparison between the predicted risk, determined on the basis of the basic model, and the predicted risk that comes from the model enriched with an additional factor. In this paper, we draw attention to Cohen's Kappa coefficient, which examines the actual agreement in the correction of a random agreement. We proposed to extend this coefficient so that it may be used to detect the quality of a logistic regression model reclassification. The results provided by Kappa's reclassification were compared with the results obtained using NRI. The random variables' distribution attached to the model on the classification change, measured by NRI, Kappa, and AUC, was presented. A simulation study was conducted on the basis of a cohort containing 3971 Poles obtained during the implementation of a lower limb atherosclerosis prevention program.

Development of deep learning chest X-ray model for cardiac dose prediction in left-sided breast cancer radiotherapy

Deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) is widely used to reduce the cardiac dose in left-sided breast cancer radiotherapy. This study aimed to develop a deep learning chest X-ray model for cardiac dose prediction to select patients with a potentially high risk of cardiac irradiation and need for DIBH radiotherapy. We used 103 pairs of anteroposterior and lateral chest X-ray data of left-sided breast cancer patients (training cohort: n = 59, validation cohort: n = 19, test cohort: n = 25). All patients underwent breast-conserving surgery followed by DIBH radiotherapy: the treatment plan consisted of three-dimensional, two opposing tangential radiation fields. The prescription dose of the planning target volume was 42.56 Gy in 16 fractions. A convolutional neural network-based regression model was developed to predict the mean heart dose (∆MHD) reduction between free-breathing (MHD_FB) and DIBH. The model performance is evaluated as a binary classifier by setting the cutoff value of ∆MHD > 1 Gy. The patient characteristics were as follows: the median (IQR) age was 52 (47–61) years, MHD_FB was 1.75 (1.14–2.47) Gy, and ∆MHD was 1.00 (0.52–1.64) Gy. The classification performance of the developed model showed a sensitivity of 85.7%, specificity of 90.9%, a positive predictive value of 92.3%, a negative predictive value of 83.3%, and a diagnostic accuracy of 88.0%. The AUC value of the ROC curve was 0.864. The proposed model could predict ∆MHD in breast radiotherapy, suggesting the potential of a classifier in which patients are more desirable for DIBH.

Evaluation of the Incremental Value of a Coronary Artery Calcium Score Beyond Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Coronary artery calcium scores (CACS) are used to help assess patients' cardiovascular status and risk. However, their best use in risk assessment beyond traditional cardiovascular factors in primary prevention is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To find, assess, and synthesize all cohort studies that assessed the incremental gain from the addition of a CACS to a standard cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculator (or CVD risk factors for a standard calculator), that is, comparing CVD risk score plus CACS with CVD risk score alone.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Eligible studies needed to be cohort studies in primary prevention populations that used 1 of the CVD risk calculators recommended by national guidelines (Framingham Risk Score, QRISK, pooled cohort equation, NZ PREDICT, NORRISK, or SCORE) and assessed and reported incremental discrimination with CACS for estimating the risk of a future cardiovascular event.

FINDINGS

From 2772 records screened, 6 eligible cohort studies were identified (with 1043 CVD events in 17 961 unique participants) from the US (n = 3), the Netherlands (n = 1), Germany (n = 1), and South Korea (n = 1). Studies varied in size from 470 to 5185 participants (range of mean [SD] ages, 50 [10] to 75.1 [7.3] years; 38.4%-59.4% were women). The C statistic for the CVD risk models without CACS ranged from 0.693 (95% CI, 0.661-0.726) to 0.80. The pooled gain in C statistic from adding CACS was 0.036 (95% CI, 0.020-0.052). Among participants classified as being at low risk by the risk score and reclassified as at intermediate or high risk by CACS, 85.5% (65 of 76) to 96.4% (349 of 362) did not have a CVD event during follow-up (range, 5.1-10.0 years). Among participants classified as being at high risk by the risk score and reclassified as being at low risk by CACS, 91.4% (202 of 221) to 99.2% (502 of 506) did not have a CVD event during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This systematic review and meta-analysis found that the CACS appears to add some further discrimination to the traditional CVD risk assessment equations used in these studies, which appears to be relatively consistent across studies. However, the modest gain may often be outweighed by costs, rates of incidental findings, and radiation risks. Although the CACS may have a role for refining risk assessment in selected patients, which patients would benefit remains unclear. At present, no evidence suggests that adding CACS to traditional risk scores provides clinical benefit.

Nontraditional risk factors in chronic kidney disease: correlation between creatinine clearance, Framingham risk score, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation

Background

Chronic kidney disease became a public health problem increasing healthcare burden. Our aim was to detect the relationship between cardiovascular risk, endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, and kidney function in chronic kidney disease patients and to detect the nontraditional factors affecting the decline in kidney functions.

Methods

A cross-sectional study including 30 male and female patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3–5. Creatinine clearance and Framingham risk score points were calculated. Carotid intimal medial thickness was measured as well as absolute flow mediated dilatation in brachial artery. Highly sensitive C-reactive protein, parathyroid hormone, kidney function tests, and lipid profile were measured.

Results

Framingham risk score points and carotid intimal medial thickness increased significantly with decreasing creatinine clearance (p 0.0025, 0.0285) respectively. A significant correlation was found between highly sensitive C-reactive protein and Framingham risk score points but not with carotid intimal medial thickness (p 0.0043, 0.2229) respectively. An inverse correlation was found between creatinine clearance and highly sensitive C-reactive protein (p 0.0174). Absolute flow mediated dilatation in brachial artery decreases with increasing Framingham risk score points and decreasing creatinine clearance (p 0.0044, 0.0269) respectively.

Conclusion

There is correlation between chronic kidney disease and impaired vascular function, subclinical atherosclerosis, and heightened inflammatory response. Chronic kidney disease patients are at increased risk of cardiovascular events with higher [10-]year cardiovascular risk.

Coronary Artery Calcium for Risk Assessment in Young Adults

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review the prognostic significance and clinical utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for risk assessment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in younger adults.

RECENT FINDINGS

Data from over 3000 young adults (mean age of 40.3 ± 3.6 followed for 12.5 years) in the CARDIA registry found that in an asymptomatic, community representative sample, there was a low prevalence of CAC (~ 10%) but those with CAC had an exponential increase in CAC over time and significantly higher rates of ASCVD events. Alternatively, data from the CAC consortium analyzed 22,346 asymptomatic individuals undergoing CAC for clinical indications (mean age 43.5 ± 4.5 years, followed for 13 ± 4 years) and found a much higher prevalence of CAC at 34% with rates of coronary heart disease mortality that varied significantly according to CAC. In younger adults, CAC provides clear prognostic value and can be considered in select individuals with uncertainties about their ASCVD risk or the benefit of preventive therapies.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

De-risking primary prevention: role of imaging

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a common disease among the general population, and includes four major areas: (1) coronary heart disease (CHD), manifested by stable angina, unstable angina, myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, and coronary death; (2) cerebrovascular disease, manifested by transient ischemia attack and stroke; (3) peripheral vascular disease, manifested by claudication and critical limb ischemia; and (4) aortic atherosclerosis and aortic aneurysm (thoracic and abdominal). CHD remains the leading cause of death for both men and women in the United States. So, it is imperative to identify people at risk of CHD and provide appropriate medical treatment or intervention to prevent serious complications and outcomes including sudden cardiac death. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a marker of subclinical coronary artery disease. Therefore, coronary artery calcium score is an important screening method for Coronary artery disease (CAD). In this article, we performed a comprehensive review of current literatures and studies assessing the prognostic value of CAC for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and Cochrane library. We also reviewed the 2018 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guideline on the assessment of CVD risk. A CAC score of zero corresponds to very low CVD event rates (∼1% per year) and hence a potent negative risk marker. This has been referred to as the ‘power of zero’ and affords the lowest risk of any method of risk calculation. It is now indicated in the 2018 ACC/AHA Cholesterol guidelines to be used to avoid statins for 5–10 years after a score of zero, and then re-assess the patient.

Carotid plaque thickness is increased in chronic kidney disease and associated with carotid and coronary calcification

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease accelerates both atherosclerosis and arterial calcification. The aim of the present study was to explore whether maximal carotid plaque thickness (cPTmax) was increased in patients with chronic kidney disease compared to controls and associated with cardiovascular disease and severity of calcification in the carotid and coronary arteries.

METHODS

The study group consisted of 200 patients with chronic kidney disease stage 3 from the Copenhagen Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort and 121 age- and sex-matched controls. cPTmax was assessed by ultrasound and arterial calcification by computed tomography scanning.

RESULTS

Carotid plaques were present in 58% of patients (n = 115) compared with 40% of controls (n = 48), p = 0.002. Among participants with plaques, cPTmax (median, interquartile range) was significantly higher in patients compared with controls (1.9 (1.4-2.3) versus 1.5 (1.2-1.8) mm), p = 0.001. Cardiovascular disease was present in 9% of patients without plaques (n = 85), 23% of patients with cPTmax 1.0-1.9 mm (n = 69) and 35% of patients with cPTmax >1.9 mm (n = 46), p = 0.001. Carotid and coronary calcium scores >400 were present in 0% and 4%, respectively, of patients with no carotid plaques, in 19% and 24% of patients with cPTmax 1.0-1.9 mm, and in 48% and 53% of patients with cPTmax >1.9 mm, p<0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study showing that cPTmax is increased in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 3 compared to controls and closely associated with prevalent cardiovascular disease and severity of calcification in both the carotid and coronary arteries.

Accelerated coronary calcium burden in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy: a comparison with age and race matched healthy women

Background

Radiotherapy (RT) might lead to atherosclerotic plaque buildup and coronary artery stenosis of breast cancer (BC) survivors, and coronary artery calcium (CAC) might be a sign of preclinical atherosclerosis. This study explores possible determinants affecting the acceleration of CAC burden in BC patients after adjuvant RT.

Methods

Female BC patients receiving adjuvant RT from 2002 to 2010 were included. All patients received noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) of thorax before and after adjuvant RT. Their CAC burden was compared with healthy controls from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. The progression of the CAC burden was manifested by the increment of CAC percentiles (%CACinc).

Results

Ninety-four patients, including both left- and right-side BC, were enrolled in this study. From undergoing the first to second NCCT, the %CACinc in BC patients significantly increased rather than non-BC women. In addition, the %CACinc was significantly higher in left-side than right-side BC patients (p < 0.05), and significant differences in most heart outcomes were found between the two groups. Besides, the lower the mean right coronary artery (RCA) dose, the lower the risks of CAC percentiles increase ≥ 50% after adjusting the disease's laterality.

Conclusions

A significantly higher accelerated CAC burden in BC patients than non-BC women represents that BC could affect accelerated CAC. A higher risk of accelerated CAC burden was found in left-side than right-side BC patients after adjuvant RT. A decrease of the mean RCA dose could reduce more than 50% of the risk of accelerated CAC burden in BC patients.

The Miami Heart Study (MiHeart) at Baptist Health South Florida, A prospective study of subclinical cardiovascular disease and emerging cardiovascular risk factors in asymptomatic young and middle-aged adults: The Miami Heart Study: Rationale and Design

Objective

The Miami Heart Study (MiHeart) at Baptist Health South Florida is an ongoing, community-based, prospective cohort study aimed at characterizing the prevalence, characteristics, and prognostic value of diverse markers of early subclinical coronary atherosclerosis and of various potential demographic, psychosocial, and metabolic risk factors. We present the study objectives, detailed research methods, and preliminary baseline results of MiHeart.

Methods

MiHeart enrolled 2,459 middle-aged male and female participants from the general population of the Greater Miami Area. Enrollment occurred between May 2015 and September 2018 and was restricted to participants aged 40–65 years free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). The baseline examination included assessment of demographics, lifestyles, medical history, and a detailed evaluation of psychosocial characteristics; a comprehensive physical exam; measurement of multiple blood biomarkers including measures of inflammation, advanced lipid testing, and genomics; assessment of subclinical coronary atherosclerotic plaque and vascular function using coronary computed tomography angiography, the coronary artery calcium score, carotid intima-media thickness, pulse wave velocity, and peripheral arterial tonometry; and other tests including 12-lead electrocardiography and assessment of pulmonary function. Blood samples were biobanked to facilitate future ancillary research.

Results

MiHeart enrolled 1,261 men (51.3%) and 1,198 women (48.7%). Mean age was 53 years, 85.6% participants were White and 47.4% were of Hispanic/Latino ethnicity. The study included 7% individuals with diabetes, 33% with hypertension, and 15% used statin therapy at baseline. Overweight or obese participants comprised 72% of the population and 3% were smokers. Median 10-year estimated atherosclerotic CVD risk using the Pooled Cohort Equations was 4%.

Conclusion

MiHeart will provide important, novel insights into the pathophysiology of early subclinical atherosclerosis and further our understanding of its role in the genesis of clinical CVD. The study findings will have important implications, further refining current cardiovascular prevention paradigms and risk assessment and management approaches moving forward.

Cardio-ankle vascular index as a predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events in metabolic syndrome patients

Background

Arterial stiffness, as reflected in the cardio‐ankle vascular index (CAVI), is a risk factor for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs).

Hypothesis

Combining CAVI and metabolic syndrome (MetS) may enhance prediction of MACEs in a general adult population.

Methods

A total of 3807 employees of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand were enrolled in a longitudinal health study during 2007‐2008. Baseline characteristics were collected and CAVI determined. Subjects with previous coronary artery disease or stroke were excluded from analysis. MetS was defined using the modified NCEP‐ATP III for Asians. The primary study endpoint was occurrence of a MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death).

Results

MetS was present in 39.2% at study baseline. The prevalence of CAVI > 9 was higher in subjects with MetS compared to those without (33.7% vs. 28.5%, P = 0.001). During the 12.4 ± 0.6 years follow‐up, 227 participants developed MACEs and 350 died. MetS was more common in patients who developed a MACE (8.2% vs. 5.0%, p < 0.001) than was non‐MetS, but it was not a significant risk after adjusting covariables. Participants with CAVI > 9 had greater risk for MACEs 1.34 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.79) relative to those with CAVI < 9. Participants with both MetS and CAVI > 9 had the worst outcomes, with the highest frequency of MACEs, among the four groups.

Conclusion

Arterial stiffness assessed by CAVI may enhance prediction of future MACEs, adding to the null predictive power of MetS. This index can be used to motivate MetS patients to modify their life‐styles for prevention.

Recommendations and Associated Levels of Evidence for Statin Use in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Comparison at Population Level of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety, US Preventive Services Task Force, Department of Veterans Affairs/Department of Defense, Canadian Cardiovascular Society, and European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society Clinical Practice Guidelines

BACKGROUND

Despite using identical evidence to support practice guidelines for lipid-lowering treatment in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is unclear to what extent the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety, 2016 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), 2020 Department of Veterans Affairs/Department of Defense, 2021 Canadian Cardiovascular Society, and 2019 European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society guidelines differ in grading and assigning levels of evidence and classes of recommendations (LOE/class) at a population level.

METHODS

We included 7262 participants, aged 45 to 75 years, without history of CVD from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Per guideline, proportions of the population recommended statin therapy by LOE/class, sensitivity and specificity for CVD events, and numbers needed to treat at 10 years were calculated.

RESULTS

Mean age was 61.1 (SD 6.9) years; 58.2% were women. American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety, USPSTF, Department of Veterans Affairs/Department of Defense, Canadian Cardiovascular Society, and European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society strongly recommended statin initiation in respective 59.4%, 40.2%, 45.2%, 73.7%, and 42.1% of the eligible population based on high-quality evidence. Sensitivity for CVD events for treatment recommendations supported with strong LOE/class was 86.3% for American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety (IA or IB), 69.4% for USPSTF (USPSTF-B), 74.5% for Department of Veterans Affairs/Department of Defense (strong for), 93.3% for Canadian Cardiovascular Society (strong), and 66.6% for European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (IA). Specificity was highest for the USPSTF at 45.3% and lowest for European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society at 10.0%. Estimated numbers needed to treat at 10 years for those with the strongest LOE/class were ranging from 20 to 26 for moderate-intensity and 12 to 16 for high-intensity statins.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivity, specificity, and numbers needed to treat at 10 years for assigned LOE/class varied greatly among 5 CVD prevention guidelines. The level of variability seems to be driven by differences in how the evidence is graded and translated into LOE/class underlying the treatment recommendations by different professional societies. Efforts towards harmonizing evidence grading systems for clinical guidelines in primary prevention of CVD may reduce ambiguity and reinforce updated evidence-based recommendations.

CTA pulmonary artery enlargement in patients with severe aortic stenosis: Prognostic impact after TAVR

BACKGROUND

Identifying high-risk patients who will not derive substantial survival benefit from TAVR remains challenging. Pulmonary hypertension is a known predictor of poor outcome in patients undergoing TAVR and correlates strongly with pulmonary artery (PA) enlargement on CTA. We sought to evaluate whether PA enlargement, measured on pre-procedural computed tomography angiography (CTA), is associated with 1-year mortality in patients undergoing TAVR.

METHODS

We retrospectively included 402 patients undergoing TAVR between July 2012 and March 2016. Clinical parameters, including Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) estimated by transthoracic echocardiography were reviewed. PA dimensions were measured on pre-procedural CTAs. Association between PA enlargement and 1-year mortality was analyzed. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 433 (interquartiles 339-797) days. A total of 56/402 (14%) patients died within 1 year after TAVR. Main PA area (area-MPA) was independently associated with 1-year mortality (hazard ratio per standard deviation equal to 2.04 [95%-confidence interval (CI) 1.48-2.76], p ​< ​0.001). Area under the curve (95%-CI) of the clinical multivariable model including STS-score and RVSP increased slightly from 0.67 (0.59-0.75) to 0.72 (0.72-0.89), p ​= ​0.346 by adding area-MPA. Although the AUC increased, differences were not significant (p ​= ​0.346). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that mortality was significantly higher in patients with a pre-procedural non-indexed area-MPA of ≥7.40 ​cm² compared to patients with a smaller area-MPA (mortality 23% vs. 9%; p ​< ​0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Enlargement of MPA on pre-procedural CTA is independently associated with 1-year mortality after TAVR.

Examining the Potential for Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) Scoring for Individuals at Low Cardiovascular Risk

Atherosclerosis is the commonest cause of death in Australia. Cardiovascular (CV) risk calculators have an important role in preventative cardiology, although they are are strongly age-dependent and designed to identify individuals at high risk of an imminent event. The imprecision around "intermediate" or "low" risk generates therapeutic uncertainty, and a significant proportion of patients presenting with myocardial infarction come from these groups, often with no warning. This highlights a conundrum: "Low" risk does not mean "no" risk. A fresh approach may be required to address the clinical conundrum around CV preventative approaches in non-high-risk individuals. While probabilistic calculators do not measure atherosclerosis, calculation of Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) scores by low-dose computed tomography (CT) can provide a snapshot of atherosclerotic burden. In intermediate-risk individuals, CAC is well-established as an aid to CV risk prediction. Although CAC scoring in low-risk asymptomatic people may be considered controversial, CAC has emerged as the single best predictor of CV events in asymptomatic individuals, independent of traditional risk factor calculators. Therefore, apart from the contribution of age and sex, the somewhat arbitrary distinction between "intermediate" and "low" CV risk using probabilistic calculators may need to be reconsidered. A zero CAC score has a very low future event rate and non-zero CAC scores are associated with a progressive, graded increase in risk as the CAC score rises. In this review, we examine the evidence for CAC screening in low-risk individuals, and propose more widespread use of CAC using simple new model intended to enhance established CV risk prediction equations.

Coronary Artery Calcium Assessed Years Before Was Positively Associated With Subtle White Matter Injury of the Brain in Asymptomatic Middle-Aged Men: The Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Using magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging, we previously showed a cross-sectional association between carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, a measure of aortic stiffness, and subtle white matter injury in clinically asymptomatic middle-age adults. While coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a robust measure of atherosclerosis, and a predictor of stroke and dementia, whether it predicts diffusion tensor imaging-based subtle white matter injury in the brain remains unknown.

METHODS

In FHS (Framingham Heart Study), an observational study, third-generation participants were assessed for CAC (2002-2005) and brain magnetic resonance imaging (2009-2014). Outcomes were diffusion tensor imaging-based measures; free water, fractional anisotropy, and peak width of mean diffusivity. After excluding the participants with neurological conditions and missing covariates, we categorized participants into 3 groups according to CAC score (0, 0 < to 100, and >100) and calculated a linear trend across the CAC groups. In secondary analyses treating CAC score as continuous, we computed slope of the outcomes per 20 to 80th percentiles higher log-transformed CAC score using linear regression.

RESULTS

In a total of 1052 individuals analyzed (mean age 45.4 years, 45.4% women), 71.6%, 22.4%, and 6.0% had CAC score of 0, 0 < to 100, and >100, respectively. We observed a significant linear trend of fractional anisotropy, but not other measures, across the CAC groups after multivariable adjustment. In the secondary analyses, CAC was associated with lower fractional anisotropy in men but not in women.

CONCLUSIONS

CAC may be a promising tool to predict prevalent subtle white matter injury of the brain in asymptomatic middle-aged men.

Novel biomarker panel measuring endothelial injury identifies patients at risk of coronary artery syndrome and discordance with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol

BACKGROUND

Individuals with no history of coronary artery disease can develop acute coronary syndrome (ACS), often in the absence of major risk factors including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). We identified risk factors and biomarkers that can help identify those at discordantly high risk of ACS with normal LDL-C using a novel validated coronary artery disease predictive algorithm (CADPA) incorporating biomarkers of endothelial injury.

METHODS

Five-year predicted ACS risk was calculated for 6392 persons using CADPA. Persons were classified as low (<3.5%), intermediate (3.5-<7.5%) or high (≥7.5%) CADPA risk and by LDL-C levels <130 mg/dL (low) and ≥130 mg/dL (high) and whether in the discordantly low LDL-C (but high CADPA risk) or high LDL-C (but low/intermediate CADPA risk) group. Multiple logistic regression identified risk factors and biomarkers that predicted discordance.

RESULTS

31% were classified as low (<3.5%), 27% at intermediate (3.5-<7.5%) and 42% were at high risk (≥7.5%). 28% of subjects were identified in the low LDL discordant risk group (LDL-C< 130 mg/dL but 5-year CADPA predicted risk ≥7.5%) and 19% in the high LDL discordant risk group (LDL-C ≥ 130 mg/dL but 5-year CADPA risk of <7.5%). Diabetes (odds ratio [OR], 2.84 [2.21-3.66]), male sex (OR, 2.83 [2.40-3.35]), family history (OR, 2.23 [1.88-2.64]) and active smoking (OR, 1.99 [1.50-2.62]) predicted low LDL risk discordance more than other risk factors (all P < 0.01). Increased serum soluble FAS, hemoglobin A1c and interleukin-16 were the biomarkers most independently associated with increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Discordance between LDL-C levels and ACS risk is common. Males with diabetes and a family history of myocardial infarction who are actively smoking may be at highest risk of developing ACS despite controlled LDL-C. Future studies should examine whether using the CADPA can help identify individuals that could benefit from earlier targeting of risk factor modification for the prevention of ACS.

Discerning the promising binding sites of S100/calgranulins and their therapeutic potential in atherosclerosis

INTRODUCTION

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease in which the members of S100 family proteins (calgranulins) bind with their receptors, particularly receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) and toll-like receptor-4 (TLR-4) and play a key role in the pathogenesis and progression of disease. Thus, these proteins could be considered as potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets in the treatment of atherosclerotic inflammation.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes the pathology of S100A8, S100A9, and S100A12 in the development of atherosclerosis and reveals key structural features of these proteins which are potentially critical in their pathological effects. This article focuses on the translational significance of antagonizing these proteins by using small molecules in patent literature, clinical and preclinical studies and also discusses future approaches that could be employed to block these proteins in the treatment of atherosclerosis.

EXPERT OPINION

Based on the critical role of S100/calgranulins in the regulation of atherosclerosis, these proteins are potential targets to develop better therapeutic options in the treatment of inflammatory diseases. However, further research is still needed to clarify their exact molecular mechanism by analyzing their detailed structural features that can expedite future research to develop novel therapeutics against these proteins to treat atherosclerotic inflammation.

Prognostic Utility of Risk Enhancers and Coronary Artery Calcium Score Recommended in the 2018 ACC/AHA Multisociety Cholesterol Treatment Guidelines Over the Pooled Cohort Equation: Insights From 3 Large Prospective Cohorts

Background Limited data exist on the incremental value of the risk enhancers recommended in the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines in addition to the pooled cohort equation. Methods and Results Using pooled individual-level data from 3 epidemiological cohorts involving 22 942 participants (56% women, mean age 59 years), we evaluated the predictive ability of the risk enhancers and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and determined their incremental utility using the C statistic, net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination index. A total of 1960 (8.5%) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events were accrued over 10 years. Of the 10 risk enhancers evaluated, only 6 predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease independent of the pooled cohort equation. However, the individual enhancers demonstrated little or no incremental benefit. There was more incremental value from combining the 6 enhancers into an aggregate score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37 for each additional enhancer), and having ≥3 enhancers represents an optimum threshold for incremental prediction (C statistic, 0.766; net reclassification index, 0.041; integrated discrimination index, 0.010; P≤0.007). On the other hand, CAC was superior to individual enhancers (C statistic, 0.774; net reclassification index, 0.073; integrated discrimination index, 0.010; P<0.001), reliably reclassifies intermediate-risk participants with <3 risk enhancers (event rate, 3.5% if no CAC and 9.8% if positive CAC), but offered no reclassification among participants with ≥3 enhancers. Conclusions The individual risk enhancers evaluated in this study provided no or only marginal incremental information added to the pooled cohort equation. However, the presence of ≥3 risk enhancers reliably identified intermediate-risk patients that will benefit from statin therapy, and further CAC testing may be considered among those with <3 risk enhancers.

Coronary artery calcium score and risk of cardiovascular events without established coronary artery disease: a systemic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an indicator of atherosclerosis, and the CAC score is a useful noninvasive assessment of coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with CAC > 0 versus CAC = 0 in asymptomatic and symptomatic population in patients without an established diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

METHODS

A systematic search of electronic databases was conducted until January 2018 for any cohort study reporting cardiovascular events in patients with CAC > 0 compared with absence of CAC.

RESULTS

Forty-five studies were included with 192 080 asymptomatic 32 477 symptomatic patients. At mean follow-up of 11 years, CAC > 0 was associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACE) compared to a CAC = 0 in asymptomatic arm [pooled risk ratio (RR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.91-5.63, P < 0.00001, I2 = 80%] and symptomatic arm (pooled RR 6.06, 95% CI 4.23-8.68, P < 0.00001, I2 = 69%). CAC > 0 was also associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in symptomatic population (pooled RR 7.94, 95% CI 2.61-24.17, P < 0.00001, I2 = 85%) and in asymptomatic population CAC > 0 was associated with higher all-cause mortality (pooled RR 3.23, 95% CI 2.12-4.93, P < 0.00001, I2 = 94%). In symptomatic population, revascularization in CAC > 0 was higher (pooled RR 15, 95% CI 6.66-33.80, P < 0.00001, I2 = 72) compared with CAC = 0. Additionally, CAC > 0 was associated with more revascularization in asymptomatic population (pooled RR 5.34, 95% CI 2.06-13.85, P = 0.0006, I2 = 93). In subgroup analysis of asymptomatic population by gender, CAC > 0 was associated with higher MACE (RR 6.39, 95% CI 3.39-12.84, P < 0.00001).

CONCLUSION

Absence of CAC is associated with low risk of cardiovascular events compared with any CAC > 0 in both asymptomatic and symptomatic population without coronary artery disease.

Association Between Ambulatory Blood Pressure and Coronary Artery Calcification: The JHS

[Figure: see text].

National Heart Foundation of Australia: position statement on coronary artery calcium scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia

Introduction

This position statement considers the evolving evidence on the use of coronary artery calcium scoring (CAC) for defining cardiovascular risk in the context of Australian practice and provides advice to health professionals regarding the use of CAC scoring in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Australia.

Main recommendations:

CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with moderate absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and for whom the findings are likely to influence the intensity of risk management. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)

CAC scoring could be considered for selected people with low absolute cardiovascular risk, as assessed by the NVDPA absolute cardiovascular risk algorithm, and who have additional risk-enhancing factors that may result in the underestimation of risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)

If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score of 0 AU could reclassify a person to a low absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient–clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for low absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)

If CAC scoring is undertaken, a CAC score > 99 AU or ≥ 75th percentile for age and sex could reclassify a person to a high absolute cardiovascular risk status, with subsequent management to be informed by patient–clinician discussion and follow contemporary recommendations for high absolute cardiovascular risk. (GRADE evidence certainty: Very low. GRADE recommendation strength: Conditional.)

Changes in management as a result of this statement

CAC scoring can have a role in reclassification of absolute cardiovascular risk for selected patients in Australia, in conjunction with traditional absolute risk assessment and as part of a shared decision‐making approach that considers the preferences and values of individual patients.

Role of coronary artery calcium score in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

First developed in 1990, the Agatston coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an international guideline-endorsed decision aid for further risk assessment and personalized management in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. This review discusses key international studies that have informed this 30 year journey, from an initial coronary plaque screening paradigm to its current role informing personalized shared decision making. Special attention is paid to the prognostic value of a CAC score of zero (the so called "power of zero"), which, in a context of low estimated risk thresholds for the consideration of preventive therapy with statins in current guidelines, may be used to de-risk individuals and thereby inform the safe delay or avoidance of certain preventive therapies. We also evaluate current recommendations for CAC scoring in clinical practice guidelines around the world, and past and prevailing barriers for its use in routine patient care. Finally, we discuss emerging approaches in this field, with a focus on the potential role of CAC informing not only the personalized allocation of statins and aspirin in the general population, but also of other risk-reduction therapies in special populations, such as individuals with diabetes and people with severe hypercholesterolemia.

Relationship between small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with carotid plaque in Chinese individuals with abnormal carotid artery intima-media thickness

Aim

To investigate the relationship of small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C) to carotid artery intima-media thickness (CA-IMT) and carotid plaque (CAP) in Chinese general population, and to evaluate whether sdLDL-C could be an independent risk factor for individuals with subclinical atherosclerosis.

Methods

A total of 729 subjects were randomly collected from consecutive individuals from April 2019 to April 2020 for an annual health checkup. CA-IMT > 1.0 mm was defined as abnormal IMT. Plaque stability was measured by ultrasound examination based on the property of the echo. And sdLDL-C levels were detected by LipoPrint system. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with CA-IMT and carotid plaque.

Results

The abnormal IMT group had significantly higher sdLDL-C levels than control group (p < 0.0001). And sdLDL-C levels were significantly positively correlated with IMT value (r = 0.1396, p = 0.0021) and presence of carotid plaque (r = 0.14, p = 0.002) in the subjects with abnormal IMT. In addition, subjects with higher levels of sdLDL-C (r = 0.11, p = 0.035) tended to have unstable CAP. After adjustment for age, gender and blood glucose, sdLDL-C level was an independent risk factor of the presence of CAP (OR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.02–1.83, p = 0.034) in subjects with abnormal IMT.

Conclusion

SdLDL-C is an independent risk factor of the occurrence of CAP in the Chinese subjects with abnormal IMT. Our findings provide supporting evidence that sdLDL-C might be an alternative way to predict CVD in early stage.

Predictive value of carotid artery ultrasonography for the risk of coronary artery disease

PURPOSE

To assess carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaques, and cardiovascular risk factors in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CHD) to determine their association and predictive value for CHD.

METHODS

We performed duplex Doppler ultrasonography of the carotid arteries and coronary angiography or CT in 480 patients with suspected CHD, and investigated their personal and medical histories. Patients were then assigned to the CHD or the control group depending on the presence of coronary lesions. Ultrasonography was performed the morning after admission prior to any treatment, coronary angiography, or CT.

RESULTS

Carotid plaques were mainly distributed in the common carotid artery bifurcation, with a significant difference between the CHD and control groups. Plaque incidence (80%) and IMT were significantly higher (P < .001 and P = .012, respectively) in the CHD (80% and 0.84 ± 0.21 mm) than in the control group (49% and 0.76 ± 0.18 mm). The factors significantly associated with CHD were introduced into a multivariate regression model. Male subject (OR = 1.569, 95%CI 1.004-2.453; P = .048) and plaque burden (OR = 0.457, 95%CI 0.210-0.993; P = .048) were significant predictors for CHD occurrence. The presence of carotid plaques performed significantly better than IMT and the Framingham risk score for predicting CHD lesions (P < .001 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

CHD patients showed higher percentage of clinical (plaques) or subclinical (IMT) carotid artery wall change, and the presence of carotid plaques showed better predictive value than IMT and Framingham risk score for the presence of coronary artery lesions.

Level and Change in N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Kidney Function and Survival to Age 90

BACKGROUND

Many traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not predict survival to very old age. Studies have shown associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) with cardiovascular disease and mortality in older populations. This study aimed to evaluate the associations of the level and change in eGFR and NT-pro-BNP with longevity to age 90 years.

METHOD

The population included participants (n = 3,645) in the Cardiovascular Health Study, aged between 67 and 75 at baseline. The main exposures were eGFR, calculated with the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) 2 equation, and NT-pro-BNP, and the main outcome was survival to age 90. Mixed models were used to estimate level and change of the main exposures.

RESULTS

There was an association between baseline level and change of both eGFR and NT-pro-BNP and survival to 90, and this association persisted after adjustment for covariates. Each 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 higher eGFR level was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.34) of survival to 90, and a 0.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 slower decline in eGFR was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI: 1.31, 1.74). A twofold higher level of NT-pro-BNP level had an adjusted OR of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.73), and a 1.05-fold increase per year in NT-pro-BNP had an OR of 0.53 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.65) for survival to age 90.

CONCLUSION

eGFR and NT-pro-BNP appear to be important risk factors for longevity to age 90.