Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

My Home is my Castle? The Role of Living Arrangements on Experiencing the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Germany

During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, social restrictions and social distancing policies forced large parts of social life to take place within the household. However, comparatively little is known about how private living situations shaped individuals experiences of this crisis. To investigate this issue, we analyze how experiences and concerns vary across living arrangements along two dimensions that may be associated with social disadvantage: loneliness and care. In doing so, we employ quantitative text analysis on open-ended questions from survey data on a sample of 1,073 individuals living in Germany. We focus our analyses on four different household structures: living alone, shared living without children, living with a partner and children, and single parents. We find that single parents (who are primarily single mothers) are at high risk of experiencing care-related worries, particularly regarding their financial situation, while individuals living alone are most likely to report feelings of loneliness. Those individuals living in shared houses, with or without children, had the lowest risk of experiencing both loneliness and care-related worries. These findings illustrate that the living situation at home substantially impacts how individuals experienced and coped with the pandemic situation during the first wave of the pandemic.

Kinetics of dendritic cell activation: impact on priming of TH1, TH2 and nonpolarized T cells

To prime immune responses, dendritic cells (DCs) need to be activated to acquire T cell stimulatory capacity. Although some stimuli trigger interleukin 12 (IL-12) production that leads to T helper cell type I (TH1) polarization, others fail to do so and favor TH2 polarization. We show that after activation by lipopolysaccharide, DCs produced IL-12 only transiently and became refractory to further stimulation. The exhaustion of cytokine production impacted the T cell polarizing process. Soon after stimulation DCs primed strong TH1 responses, whereas at later time points the same cells preferentially primed TH2 and nonpolarized T cells. These findings indicate that during an immune response, T cell priming conditions may change in the lymph nodes, suggesting another mechanism for the regulation of effector and memory T cells.

Cholera toxin induces maturation of human dendritic cells and licences them for Th2 priming

Cholera toxin (CT) is a potent mucosal adjuvant that amplifies B and T cell responses to mucosally co-administered antigens, stimulating predominant Th2-type responses. However, little is known about the mechanism of adjuvanticity of CT and on the influence this toxin may have on Th2 cell development during the priming of an immune response. We analyzed the effect of CT on dendritic cells (DC), which are responsible for the priming of immune responses at the systemic as well as at the mucosal level. We found that CT induces phenotypic and functional maturation of blood monocyte-derived DC. Indeed, CT-treated DC up-regulate expression of HLA-DR molecules, B7. 1 and B7.2 co-stimulatory molecules, and are able to prime naive CD4(+)CD45RA(+) T cells in vitro, driving their polarization towards the Th2 phenotype. Furthermore, CT-matured DC express functional chemokine receptors CCR7 and CXCR4 which may render them responsive to migratory stimuli towards secondary lymphoid organs. Interestingly, the maturation program induced by CT is unique since CT does not induce but rather inhibits cytokine (IL-12p70 and TNF-alpha) and chemokine (RANTES, MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta) secretion by lipopolysaccharide- or CD40 ligand-activated DC. Our results help to elucidate the mechanism of action of CT as an adjuvant and highlight a new stimulus of bacterial origin that promotes maturation of DC.