Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

The pleasure principle Why (some) people develop a taste for politics: Evidence from a preregistered experiment

Existing theories struggle when political engagement is an end in itself. To explain intrinsically motivated engagement in politics, this study synthesizes psychological theories to deduce a need-based theory of political motivation. It posits that intrinsic political motivation has roots in seemingly apolitical processes of need satisfaction that are universal and deeply ingrained in the human psyche. However, in a high-powered survey experiment, 14 of 15 preregistered analytical tests did not yield the expected evidence for the basic tenet that previous need-related experiences with politics affect the quality and quantity of future activities in the political domain. Showcasing a stepwise approach to engage with null results in hypothesis-driven research, post hoc analyses solidify the null findings, which call into question the validity of the presented theory and the previous evidence on which it was built. This study thus enhances our understanding of what does and does not underlie intrinsic motivation for political engagement.

Copeptin as a marker for arginine-vasopressin/antidiuretic hormone secretion in the diagnosis of paraneoplastic syndrome of inappropriate ADH secretion

Direct measurement of arginine-vasopressin/antidiuretic hormone (AVP/ADH) concentrations is not included in the standard diagnostic procedures for paraneoplastic syndrome of inappropriate ADH secretion (SIADH). Here, we evaluate the potential of copeptin measurement as a surrogate marker of AVP/ADH secretion for the direct diagnosis of suspected SIADH in cancer patients. Forty-six unselected cancer patients with serum sodium concentrations permanently below 135 mmol/L were included in this study. We compared standard diagnostic criteria for SIADH to the measurement of plasma copeptin in relation to osmolality. Normative data for comparison were constructed from 24 healthy controls studied under basal conditions, experimental dehydration, and hypotonic hypervolemia as well as from 222 hospital patients with no suspicion of an altered ADH regulation. Log transformation of copeptin revealed a linear relationship to plasma osmolality in the controls (R = 0.495, p < 0.001). Compared to these normative data, copeptin levels in most cancer patients were inappropriately high for plasma osmolality and were not significantly correlated. These results, suggestive for paraneoplastic SIADH, could be confirmed by conventional diagnostic procedures for SIADH. Current strategies to diagnose SIADH are difficult to perform under outpatients conditions. Our approach allows screening from a single plasma sample for true paraneoplastic ADH oversecretion and thus rapid selection for a specific therapy with an AVP receptor antagonist.

Imatinib mesilate-induced phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase signalling and improved survival in insulin-producing cells: role of Src homology 2-containing inositol 5'-phosphatase interaction with c-Abl

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

It is not clear how small tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as imatinib mesilate, protect against diabetes and beta cell death. The aim of this study was to determine whether imatinib, as compared with the non-cAbl-inhibitor sunitinib, affects pro-survival signalling events in the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway.

METHODS

Human EndoC-βH1 cells, murine beta TC-6 cells and human pancreatic islets were used for immunoblot analysis of insulin receptor substrate (IRS)-1, Akt and extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) phosphorylation. Phosphatidylinositol 3,4,5-trisphosphate [PI(3,4,5)P3] plasma membrane concentrations were assessed in EndoC-βH1 and MIN6 cells using evanescent wave microscopy. Src homology 2-containing inositol 5'-phosphatase 2 (SHIP2) tyrosine phosphorylation and phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN) serine phosphorylation, as well as c-Abl co-localisation with SHIP2, were studied in HEK293 and EndoC-βH1 cells by immunoprecipitation and immunoblot analysis. Gene expression was assessed using RT-PCR. Cell viability was measured using vital staining.

RESULTS

Imatinib stimulated ERK(thr202/tyr204) phosphorylation in a c-Abl-dependent manner. Imatinib, but not sunitinib, also stimulated IRS-1(tyr612), Akt(ser473) and Akt(thr308) phosphorylation. This effect was paralleled by oscillatory bursts in plasma membrane PI(3,4,5)P3 levels. Wortmannin induced a decrease in PI(3,4,5)P3 levels, which was slower in imatinib-treated cells than in control cells, indicating an effect on PI(3,4,5)P3-degrading enzymes. In line with this, imatinib decreased the phosphorylation of SHIP2 but not of PTEN. c-Abl co-immunoprecipitated with SHIP2 and its binding to SHIP2 was largely reduced by imatinib but not by sunitinib. Imatinib increased total β-catenin levels and cell viability, whereas sunitinib exerted negative effects on cell viability.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Imatinib inhibition of c-Abl in beta cells decreases SHIP2 activity, which results in enhanced signalling downstream of PI3 kinase.