Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

Diagnosis and treatment of subclinical mastitis in early lactation in dairy goats

The objectives of the study were to define the sensitivity and specificity of the California Mastitis Test (CMT) in determining the presence of intramammary infection in postpartum dairy goats and to determine whether antibiotic therapy increased bacteriological cure rate and lowered somatic cell count (SCC) compared with untreated controls. A CMT was performed and milk samples were collected for bacteriology from 211 glands of 106 does between 0 and 10 d after kidding. From a population of 3,239 glands from goats in 4 commercial herds, goats with one or both glands with a CMT score of >1 and from which bacteria were isolated were either assigned to be treated with 3 intramammary infusions at 12-h intervals of 75 mg of sodium ampicillin and 250 mg of sodium cloxacillin (n=57 glands) or left as untreated controls (n=49 glands). Milk samples were collected again 14 ± 3 and 21 ± 3 d later for bacteriology and SCC determination. Composite milk yield, goat SCC, length of lactation, and survival data were collected. A partial budget was constructed to assess the cost effectiveness of treatment. At a cut point of greater than trace, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the CMT were 0.74, 0.74, 0.42, and 0.92, respectively. Treatment increased the bacteriological cure rate compared with no treatment [30/57 (53%) vs. 6/49 (12%)], but there was a pathogen by treatment interaction whereby treatment increased cure proportion in glands infected with minor, but not major, pathogens. Treatment reduced the foremilk gland-level SCC [1,595 (95% CI=1,106-2,300) vs. 3,028 (95% CI=2,091-4,385) geometric mean (× 1,000) cells/mL] but not the SCC at goat level [1,596 (95% CI=1,219-2,090) vs. 1,488 (95% CI=1,132-1,955) geometric mean (× 1,000) cells/mL] compared with no treatment. Milk yield, risk of removal from the herd, and length of lactation were not altered by treatment. Treatment resulted in a loss of NZ$20.39/doe. It was concluded that use of the CMT as a screening test resulted in a higher likelihood of finding a gland that would be infected than selecting a gland at random. Treatment increased bacteriological cure rate and reduced SCC at gland level compared with no treatment. However, at goat level, milk yield, SCC, and survival were not altered, resulting in no economic benefit of treatment.

Reduction in heat-induced gastrointestinal hyperpermeability in rats by bovine colostrum and goat milk powders

Male Sprague-Dawley rats were assigned to one of three dietary groups [standard diet (Cont; n = 8), standard diet plus bovine colostrum powder (BColost 1.7 g/kg; n = 8), or goat milk powder (GMilk 1.7 g/kg; n = 8)] to determine the ability of these supplements to reduce gastrointestinal hyperpermeability induced by heat. Raising core body temperature of rats to 41.5 degrees C increased transfer of (51)Cr-EDTA from gut into blood 34-fold relative to the ambient temperature value (P < 0.05) in the Cont group of rats, indicative of increased gastrointestinal permeability. Significantly less (P < 0.01) (51)Cr-EDTA was transferred into the blood of rats in either the BColost (27% of Cont) or GMilk group (10% of Cont) after heating, showing that prior supplementation with either bovine colostrum or goat milk powder significantly reduced the impact of heat stress on gastrointestinal permeability. The changes in the BColost group were not significantly different than those of the GMilk group. The potential mechanism of the protective effect of bovine colostrum and goat milk powders may involve modulation of tight junction permeability, because both powders were able to maintain transepithelial resistance in Madin Darby canine kidney cells challenged with EGTA compared with cells maintained in media only. The results show that bovine colostrum powder can partially alleviate the effects of hyperthermia on gastrointestinal permeability in the intact animal. Moreover, goat milk powder was equally as effective as bovine colostrum powder, and both may be of benefit in other situations where gastrointestinal barrier function is compromised.

Determining the causes of fertility problems

This article is the third in our series about fertility (the first two were in the September 3 and October 1 issues). It looks at the initial clinical investigations that patients have to undergo. The next article in the series, on December 3, will look at the indications for assisted conception.

Evaluation of the CLINITEK ATLAS for routine macroscopic urinalysis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance of a new, benchtop, fully automated urine analyzer the CLINITEK ATLAS and compare it with the URICHEM 1000 CHEMSTRIP UA analyzer. Macroscopic analysis included measurement of 8 urine analyte chemistries and specific gravity by the refractive index method (SgRl).

METHODS

The analytical performance studies conducted were calibration stability, precision (within-run and day-to-day), comparison of results of 437 fresh patient urine specimens, analysis of time performance, and problem logging over a 16-day evaluation period.

RESULTS

Satisfactory calibration reproducibility, within-run (n = 10), and day-to-day (n = 16) precision was found because results fell within the +/- one color-block by the proposed National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) criteria. Patient results (n = 437) from the 2 analyzers giving the same color-block agreement was found to be for pH, 52%; glucose, 92%; ketones, 86%; protein, 79%; bilirubin, 97%; leukocytes, 72%; blood, 80%; and nitrite, 98%. The concordance defined by the NCCLS criteria as the agreement of results +/- one color-block between the 2 analyzers was found to be for pH, 96%; glucose, 99%; ketones, 100%; protein, 95%; bilirubin, 100%; leukocytes, 97%; and blood 86%. The SgRl determined on ATLAS was correlated with the RD-10 Rapid Density analyzer with the following results: slope = 0.97, intercept = 0.033, r = 0.94, Syx = 0.003, for a range of values from 1.002 to 1.070.

CONCLUSION

Our preliminary data indicate that the analytical performance, and automatable features for complete walk-away function of this analyzer can significantly increase the overall testing efficiency in the urinalysis laboratory.

The biological activity of glucagon-phospholipid complexes

Glucagon can form water-soluble complexes with phospholipids. The incorporation of glucagon into these lipoprotein particles reduces the biological activity of the hormone. The effect is observed only at temperatures below the phase transition temperature of the phospholipid and results in a decreased stimulation of the adenylate cyclase of rat liver plasma membranes by the lipoprotein complex as compared with the hormone in free solution. Two- to five-fold higher concentrations of glucagon are required for half-maximal stimulation of adenylate cyclase when the hormone is complexed with dimyristoyl phosphatidylcholine, dipalmitoyl phosphatidylcholine, or bovine brain sphingomyelin. A possible role of lipoprotein-associated hormones in the development of insulin resistance is discussed.

Regulation of glucagon-stimulated production of glucose in rat liver by guanosine 3',5'-cyclic phosphate

Exogenous cGMP can inhibit both basal and glucagon-stimulated production of glucose in liver slices from fed rats. Thus, cAMP and cGMP have opposite effects on the production of glucose in rat liver. Acetylcholine, an activator of guanylate cyclase (EC 4.6.1.2) in other systems, also inhibits the glucagon-stimulated production of glucose. No effect on glucose production was observed with secretin or exogenous GTP.