Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Rental Market: Evidence From Craigslist

Past research has demonstrated the racially and spatially uneven impacts of economic shocks and environmental disasters on various markets. In this article, we examine if and how the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the market for rental housing in the 49 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. Using a unique data set of new rental listings gathered from Craigslist and localized measures of the pandemic's severity we find that, from mid-March to early June, local spread of COVID-19 is followed by reduced median and mean rent. However, this trend is driven by dropping rents for listings in Black, Latino, and diverse neighborhoods. Listings in majority White neighborhoods experience rent increases during this time. Our analyses make multiple contributions. First, we add to the burgeoning literature examining the rental market as a key site of perpetuating sociospatial inequality. Second, we demonstrate the utility of data gathered online for analyzing housing. And third, by reflecting on research that shows how past crises have increased sociospatial inequality and up-to-date work showing the racially and spatially unequal effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss some possible mechanisms by which the pandemic may be affecting the market for rental housing as well as implications for long-term trends.

The Unequal Availability of Rental Housing Information Across Neighborhoods

As more urban residents find their housing through online search tools, recent research has theorized the potential for online information to transform and equalize the housing search process. Yet, very little is known about what rental housing information is available online. Using a corpus of millions of geocoded Craigslist advertisements for rental housing across the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the United States merged with census tract-level data from the American Community Survey, we identify and describe the types of information commonly included in listings across different types of neighborhoods. We find that in the online housing market, renters are exposed to fundamentally different types of information depending on the ethnoracial and socioeconomic makeup of the neighborhoods where they are searching.

Parvenus and conflict in elite cohorts

Previous studies find that greater workplace diversity leads to higher degrees of conflict in low and medium-status workgroups. This paper examines whether similar dynamics operate in elite cohorts. We use data from a survey of White House Fellows (N=475) to look at how the presence of parvenus-individuals from underrepresented groups in elite environments-change the rate at which fellows reported conflict with each other and with the director of the program. We find that there is no unified "parvenu experience." Analysis of the interaction between race and cohort diversity reveals inflection points consistent with Kanter's (1977) theory of tokenism, but the effects of increasing diversity diverge: for Hispanics, conflict with the director increases with diversity, while for Asians, conflict falls with diversity. While other groups' level of conflict with their peers stays roughly constant, Asians' reported level of conflict with their peers increases with diversity.

Language proficiency and health status: are bilingual immigrants healthier?

Bilingual immigrants appear to have a health advantage, and identifying the mechanisms responsible for this is of increasing interest to scholars and policy makers in the United States. Utilizing the National Latino and Asian American Study (NLAAS; n = 3,264), we investigate the associations between English and native-language proficiency and usage and self-rated health for Asian and Latino U.S. immigrants from China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico, Cuba, and Puerto Rico. The findings demonstrate that across immigrant ethnic groups, being bilingual is associated with better self-rated physical and mental health relative to being proficient in only English or only a native language, and moreover, these associations are partially mediated by socioeconomic status and family support but not by acculturation, stress and discrimination, or health access and behaviors.

Neighborhood Poverty and Maternal Fears of Children's Outdoor Play

Investigating children's outdoor play unites scholarship on neighborhoods, parental perceptions of safety, and children's health. Utilizing the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study (N=3,448), we examine mothers' fear of their five-year-old children playing outdoors, testing associations with neighborhood social characteristics, city-level crime rates, maternal mental health, and social support. Living in public housing, perceptions of low neighborhood collective efficacy, and living in a Census tract with a higher proportion of Blacks and households in poverty are associated with higher odds of maternal fear, but crime rates are not a significant predictor of fear. We also demonstrate that not being depressed - but not social support or collective efficacy - buffers the influence of neighborhood poverty on maternal fears of outdoor play.

Premalignant lesions and microinvasive carcinoma of the cervix in Jewish women: an epidemiological study

During the years 1979-1982 cervical smears were taken from 3974 women at the cervical pathology unit at the Serlin Maternity Hospital, Tel Aviv Medical Center, Tel Aviv. There were 69 patients with positive cytology who had colposcopic directed biopsies which revealed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or a microinvasive lesion; a prevalence rate of 17 per 1000. Epidemiological characteristics of the 69 patients with CIN and microinvasion revealed that these women were younger than those with negative cytology, had more sexual partners and pregnancies, started their sexual activities earlier, and only half of them were married. In the whole series 57% of the women were of Ashkenazi origin and 43% were of Eastern and Sephardic origin, whereas in the group with positive cytology the proportion of women of Eastern and Sephardic origin was twice that of Ashkenazi origin, 64 and 36%, respectively. Only 4.5% of women in the CIN group declared themselves as religiously observant compared with 9.8% in the control group.

Treatment of cervical ectropion by cryosurgery: effect on cervical mucus characteristics

Eighteen women with cervical ectropion and 12 women with ectropion and vaginal discharge were treated by cryosurgery. Evaluation of the cervical mucus characteristics by cervical score and in vitro penetration test was performed before treatment and 2 months later. In the group with ectropion only (group A) the total cervical score was 5.7 +/- 0.4 and 11.9 +/- 0.06 (P less than 0.001) (mean +/- standard error) before treatment and 2 months later, respectively. In the group with ectropion and vaginal discharge (group B) the total cervical score before and after cryosurgery was 3.8 +/- 0.4 and 11.8 +/- 0.1 (P less than 0.001), respectively. In vitro penetration tests in group A before and after treatment were 0.72 +/- 0.1 and 2.9 +/- 0.08 (P less than 0.001), respectively. In group B, in vitro penetration tests before and after cryosurgery were 0.25 +/- 0.1 and 2.8 +/- 0.1 (P less than 0.001), respectively. It appears that cryosurgery improves the cervical mucus characteristics. It is recommended that infertile patients with hostile cervical mucus and ectropion will be treated by cryosurgery.

Premature thelarche--natural history and sex hormone secretion in 68 girls

Data obtained during long-term follow-up of 68 girls with premature thelarche were analysed. In 85% onset was before the age of 2 years, in 30.8% being present at birth. In 44.1% there was a regression after 3 2/12 +/- 2 8/12 years (SD). Basal levels of plasma FSH and response to LH-RH were significantly higher than prepubertal controls (1.93 +/- 1.56 vs. 0.8 +/- 0.1 mU/ml and peaks 12.3 +/- 5.4 vs. 7.9 +/- 1.0 mU/ml respectively; p less than 0.001). Twenty-seven of 52 patients tested had increased plasma estradiol and in 27 of 40 patients tested, urocytograms or vaginal smear showed estrogenization. Basal levels of LH and response to LH-RH were prepubertal. The girls with premature thelarche were significantly taller than normal controls of the same age (p less than 0.001). These results suggest that premature thelarche is an incomplete form of precocious sexual development probably due to derangement in the maturation of the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis which results in a higher than normal secretion of FSH, as well as a defect in the peripheral sensitivity to the sex hormones.

Cytologic detection of Enterobius vermicularis and Strongyloides stercoralis in routine cervicovaginal smears and urocytograms

Four cases of Enterobius vermicularis infection and one case of Strongyloides stercoralis infection were found during the examination of 22,700 routine Papanicolaou-stained cervicovaginal smears and 434 urinary sediments. Ova of E. vermicularis were observed in the urocytograms from three girls and in the vaginal smear of a young woman. In a second woman, a S. stercoralis larva was detected in the routine vaginal smear. A clear background or a mild inflammatory pattern was noted in the smears in these cases.

Cancer and dysplasia of cervix in relation to reduced lymphocytic cortisol metabolism-enhancing effect

In previous studies we found that the plasma of carcinoma patients shows a reduced capacity to enhance lymphocytic cortisol metabolism. In the present study this capacity was assessed in the plasma of patients suffering from cervical carcinoma (Ce. Ca.) and of patients suffering from cervical dysplasia (Ce. Dis.) regarded as being at high risk to develop cancer. Known concentrations of human lymphocytes from healthy donors were incubated with cortisol in media containing 50% phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) and 50% of one of the following additions: 1) homologous plasma (HP), 2) plasma from the patients being tested or from healthy controls, or 3) additional PBS. The cortisol conversion rate was measured and compared with that obtained with lymphocytes immersed in HP. Previous findings showed that the plasma of cancer patients has a mean metabolism-enhancing rate 62% of that obtained with HP. In the present study the results were as follows: Ce. Ca., 60%; Ce. Dis., 70%: controls, 93%. The percentage of "cancer-positive" results were as follows: Ce. Ca., 91%; Ce. Dis., 45%; controls, 25%.

Cytologic findings in oral contraceptive users among Israeli Jewish women

A group of 3,317 Jewish Israeli women were studied to evaluate a possible correlation between previous and recent oral contraceptive usage and cervical cytopathologic findings in Papanicolaou smears. A positive correlation was established between oral contraceptive usage and the occurrence of inflammatory findings: the rate of inflammatory changes depended on the length of usage, with a time lapse of at least one year preceding the appearance of such inflammatory changes. The cessation of oral contraceptive usage was associated with a decrease in the rate of inflammatory findings. No cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or malignancy were found.

Hormonal and cytopathological changes in vaginal and cervical smears from women undergoing chemotherapy for extragenital malignant diseases

The effects of various chemotherapeutic drugs on the squamous epithelium of the cervicovaginal tissues were investigated in a test group of 74 and a control group of 44 women with advanced extragenital malignancy. The cytological findings were as follows: (A) cytohormonal changes reflecting estrogenic withdrawal in pre- and postmenopausal women, (B) reversible cytopathological changes reflecting a cytotoxic reaction, and (C) absence of premalignant and malignant changes.

Menorrhagia associated with the wearing of IUD--the results of treatment with clomiphene citrate

The influence of clomiphene citrate was tested in 206 women suffering from menorrhagia following the insertion of an intrauterine device (IUD). Eighty-three percent felt relief during the therapy, 10% did not benefit and 7% complained of a worsening of their symptoms. Among the women who felt an improvement, 85% responded to the 250 mg/cycle dosage, and 15% required the 350 mg/cycle dosage. Women with shortened menstrual cycles required the higher dose treatment, i.e. 350 mg, compared with women with normal cycles (36% vs. 28%, respectively). The influence of placebo was 6%. The hypothesis is raised that the mechanism of action of clomiphene citrate is the correction of the hormonal disturbances in the luteal phase of the cycle following insertion of the IUD.

Placenta previa with focal accretion

A series of eight women in whom a diagnosis of placenta previa with focal accretion was established, is presented. They were selected from a group of 153 women with placenta previa who delivered during the period 1968-77. The women with placenta previa accreta did not differ from those with placenta previa per se with respect to age, parity, obstetrical history, and antenatal, intrapartum or perinatal outcome. Three women delivered vaginally and five by cesarean section. Postpartum hemorrhage occurred in four of the women, three of whom were delivered vaginally. Of seven women who were managed conservatively, one required a hysterectomy to control bleeding. It is suggested that cases of placenta previa with focal accretion be managed conservatively.

Recurrent placenta previa

Among a group of 33 135 women who delivered at Beilinson Medical Center, Israel, during the years 1968 to 1978, recurrent placenta previa occurred in 3.2% of the women, i.e., 6 times higher than the incidence of placenta previa in the general population (0.5%). Analysis of the data revealed that women over 36 yr of age with a history of placenta previa are at risk for recurrent placenta previa. Maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality were similar in cases of single and recurrent placenta previa.

Cytologic evaluation of hormonal dynamic in the postmenopause

There is increasing evidence that the postmenopausal ovary retains some endocrine function and thus can contribute a certain extent to the persistence of the vaginal epithelium proliferation a long time after the cessation of menstruations. Vaginal cytology plays an important role in the assessment of the vaginal epithelium response to hormonal stimuli, though less accurate than the blood and the urine estimations. It was established that there was a good correlation between the vaginal cytology and the biochemical estimations [2]. The fact that vaginal cytology cannot distinguish the proliferative patterns induced by estrogens, progesterone and androgens is true. With this in mind we did a cytological study in postmenopausal women, using our classification for the cytological typing based on the depth of the epithelial atrophy. The findings are discussed with special reference to the ethnic origin, reproductive life and concurrent illnesses.

Studies in human reproduction. Glucose tolerance in mothers and fathers of excessive-sized infants

It is now known that a woman who has given birth to a large child or children is to be regarded as a potential diabetic. It has also been suggested that, in addition to the mother&#8217;s unfavorable environment, the high birth weight might be an inherited characteristic linked in some way to the diabetic genetic make-up of the father. The authors have investigated carbohydrate metabolism by means of a 3-hour oral glucose tolerance test in 50 couples, mothers and fathers who had given birth to giant infants (weighing 5 kg or more). Glucose tolerance was compared to that of 50 other couples, mothers and fathers of infants with average birth weight. The latter served as a control group. Nine women (18<i>%</i>) in the test group had a diabetic O-GTT, as compared to three (6<i>%</i>) in the control group. Five men in the test group (10<i>%</i>), and two in the control group (4<i>%</i>) had diabetic-type curves. Statistical evaluation of women and men as groups showed glucose tolerance to be significantly lower in the test groups as compared to the control groups, respectively. It was concluded that results of our study are in accordance with investigators who found deterioration of carbohydrate metabolism in mothers and fathers of excessive-sized babies.