Radiation Therapy With or Without Cisplatin for Local Recurrences of Endometrial Cancer: Results From an NRG Oncology/GOG Prospective Randomized Multicenter Clinical Trial

PURPOSE

Pelvic recurrence is a frequent pattern of relapse for women with endometrial cancer. A randomized trial compared progression-free survival (PFS) after treatment with radiation therapy alone as compared with concurrent chemotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between February 2008 and August 2020, 165 patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either radiation treatment alone or a combination of chemotherapy and radiation treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine whether chemoradiation therapy was more effective than radiation therapy alone at improving PFS.

RESULTS

The majority of patients had low-grade (1 or 2) endometrioid histology (82%) and recurrences confined to the vagina (86%). External beam with either the three-dimensional or intensity modulated radiation treatment technique was followed by a boost delivered with brachytherapy or external beam. Patients randomly assigned to receive chemotherapy were treated with once weekly cisplatin (40 mg/m2). Rates of acute toxicity were higher in patients treated with chemoradiation as compared with radiation treatment alone. Median PFS was longer for patients treated with radiation therapy alone as compared with chemotherapy and radiation (median PFS was not reached for RT v 73 months for chemoradiation, hazard ratio of 1.25 (95% CI, 0.75 to 2.07). At 3 years, 73% of patients treated definitively with radiation and 62% of patients treated with chemoradiation were alive and free of disease progression.

CONCLUSION

Excellent outcomes can be achieved for women with localized recurrences of endometrial cancer when treated with radiation therapy. The addition of chemotherapy does not improve PFS for patients treated with definitive radiation therapy for recurrent endometrial cancer and increases acute toxicity. Patients with low-grade and vaginal recurrences who constituted the majority of those enrolled are best treated with radiation therapy alone.

NRG-GY012: Randomized phase 2 study comparing olaparib, cediranib, and the combination of cediranib/olaparib in women with recurrent, persistent, or metastatic endometrial cancer

PURPOSE

This paper reports the efficacy of the poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor olaparib alone and in combination with the antiangiogenesis agent cediranib compared with cediranib alone in patients with advanced endometrial cancer.

METHODS

This was open-label, randomized, phase 2 trial (NCT03660826). Eligible patients had recurrent endometrial cancer, received at least one (<3) prior lines of chemotherapy, and were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 to 2. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1), stratified by histology (serous vs. other) to receive cediranib alone (reference arm), olaparib, or olaparib and cediranib for 28-day cycles until progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary end point was progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population. Homologous repair deficiency was explored using the BROCA-GO sequencing panel.

RESULTS

A total of 120 patients were enrolled and all were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. Median age was 66 (range, 41-86) years and 47 (39.2%) had serous histology. Median progression-free survival for cediranib was 3.8 months compared with 2.0 months for olaparib (hazard ratio, 1.45 [95% CI, 0.91-2.3] p = .935) and 5.5 months for olaparib/cediranib (hazard ratio, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.43-1.14] p = .064). Four patients receiving the combination had a durable response lasting more than 20 months. The most common grade 3/4 toxicities were hypertension in the cediranib (36%) and olaparib/cediranib (33%) arms, fatigue (20.5% olaparib/cediranib), and diarrhea (17.9% cediranib). The BROCA-GO panel results were not associated with response.

CONCLUSION

The combination of cediranib and olaparib demonstrated modest clinical efficacy; however, the primary end point of the study was not met. The combination was safe without unexpected toxicity.

Prognostic significance of ethnicity and age in advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer: An NRG oncology/gynecologic oncology group study

BACKGROUND

Age and ethnicity are among several factors that influence overall survival (OS) in ovarian cancer. The study objective was to determine whether ethnicity and age were of prognostic significance in women enrolled in a clinical trial evaluating the addition of bevacizumab to front-line therapy.

METHODS

Women with advanced stage ovarian, primary peritoneal, or fallopian tube cancer were enrolled in a phase III clinical trial. All women had surgical staging and received adjuvant chemotherapy with one of three regimens. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between OS with age and race/ethnicity among the study participants.

RESULTS

One-thousand-eight-hundred-seventy-three women were enrolled in the study. There were 280 minority women and 328 women over the age of 70. Women age 70 and older had a 34% increase risk for death when compared to women under 60 (HR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.16-1.54). Non-Hispanic Black women had a 54% decreased risk of death with the addition of maintenance bevacizumab (HR = 0.46, 95% CI:0.26-0.83). Women of Asian descent had more hematologic grade 3 or greater adverse events and a 27% decrease risk of death when compared to non-Hispanic Whites (HR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.59-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-Hispanic Black women showed a decreased risk of death with the addition of bevacizumab and patients of Asian ancestry had a lower death rate than all other minority groups, but despite these clinically meaningful improvements there was no statistically significant difference in OS among the groups.

Missing repeated measures data in clinical trials

Clinical trials typically collect longitudinal data, data that are collected repeated over time, such as laboratories, scans, or patient-reported outcomes. Due to a variety of reasons, this data can be missing, whether a patient stops attending clinical visits (ie, dropout) or misses assessments intermittently. Understanding the reasons for missing data as well as predictors of missing data can aid in determination of the missing data mechanism. The analysis methods used are dependent on the missing data mechanism and may make certain assumptions about the missing data itself. Methods for nonignorable missing data, which assumes that the missing data depend on the missing data itself, make stronger assumptions and include pattern-mixture models and shared parameter models. Missing data that are ignorable after adjusting for other covariates can be analyzed using methods that adjust for covariates, such as mixed-effects models or multiple imputation. Missing data that are ignorable can be analyzed using standard approaches that require complete case data, such as change from baseline or proportion of patients who declined at a specified time point. In clinical trials, truly ignorable data are rare, resulting in additional analysis methods required for proper interpretation of the results. Conducting several analyses under different assumptions, called sensitivity analyses, can determine the extent of the impact of the missing data.

Correlation of imaging and plasma based biomarkers to predict response to bevacizumab in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC)

PURPOSE

Increasing measures of adiposity have been correlated with poor oncologic outcomes and a lack of response to anti-angiogenic therapies. Limited data exists on the impact of subcutaneous fat density (SFD) and visceral fat density (VFD) on oncologic outcomes. This ancillary analysis of GOG-218, evaluates whether imaging markers of adiposity were predictive biomarkers for bevacizumab (bev) use in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

There were 1249 patients (67%) from GOG-218 with imaging measurements. SFD and VFD were calculated utilizing Hounsfield units (HU). Proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between SFD and VFD with overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Increased SFD and VFD showed an increased HR for death (HR per 1-SD increase 1.12, 95% CI:1.05-1.19 p = 0.0009 and 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05-1.20 p = 0.0006 respectively). In the predictive analysis for response to bev, high VFD showed an increased hazard for death in the placebo group (HR per 1-SD increase 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09-1.37; p = 0.025). However, in the bev group there was no effect seen (HR per 1-SD increase: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.90-1.14) Median OS was 45 vs 47 months in the VFD low groups and 36 vs 42 months in the VFD high groups on placebo versus bev, respectively.

CONCLUSION

High VFD and SFD have a negative prognostic impact on patients with EOC. High VFD appears to be a predictive marker of bev response and patients with high VFD may be more likely to benefit from initial treatment with bev.

Standardization of lower extremity quantitative lymphedema measurements and associated patient-reported outcomes in gynecologic cancers

Practice changing standardization of lower extremity lymphedema quantitative measurements with integrated patient reported outcomes will likely refine and redefine the optimal risk-reduction strategies to diminish the devastating limb-related dysfunction and morbidity associated with treatment of gynecologic cancers. The National Cancer Institute (NCI), Division of Cancer Prevention brought together a diverse group of cancer treatment, therapy and patient reported outcomes experts to discuss the current state-of-the-science in lymphedema evaluation with the potential goal of incorporating new strategies for optimal evaluation of lymphedema in future developing gynecologic clinical trials.

Sequential Ipilimumab After Chemoradiotherapy in Curative-Intent Treatment of Patients With Node-Positive Cervical Cancer

Importance

Despite standard chemoradiotherapy (CRT), most women with lymph node (LN)-positive cervical cancer experience disease recurrence. Immunotherapy is being investigated in the up-front treatment setting.

Objectives

To assess the safety of sequential immunotherapy after CRT and to investigate human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype and HLA allele status on survival and programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) expression before and after CRT and sequential immunotherapy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective phase 1 trial conducted in 29 Gynecology Oncology Cooperative Group member institutions enrolled participants from December 18, 2012, to August 31, 2016, with a 14.8-month median follow-up and translational end points. Thirty-four women with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage IB2 to IVA cervical cancer with positive pelvic LNs, para-aortic LNs, or both were enrolled; 13 did not receive ipilimumab and were excluded from the analysis. Data were analyzed from January 21 to April 4, 2018.

Interventions

Treatment consisted of 6 weekly doses of cisplatin, 40 mg/m2, concurrent with radiotherapy. After completion of chemotherapy, sequential ipilimumab was given every 21 days for 4 doses. Two dosage levels of ipilimumab, 3 mg/kg and 10 mg/kg, were studied to identify the maximum tolerated dose.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was safety, and the secondary end points were overall survival and progression-free survival. Exploratory end points included HPV genotype, HLA allele status, and PD-1 expression measured in peripheral blood.

Results

The median age of the 32 participants included in the intent-to-treat analysis was 50 (range, 26-61) years, and 22 patients (69%) were white. Of the 21 patients who received ipilimumab, all had positive pelvic LN, and 6 (29%) had positive para-aortic LNs. All patients completed CRT, and of the 21 patients who received at least 2 cycles of ipilimumab, 18 (86%) completed 4 cycles of ipilimumab, and 3 (14%) completed 2 cycles. The maximum tolerated dose was 10 mg/kg. Two of the 21 patients (9.5%) who received ipilimumab had self-limiting grade 3 toxic effects (lipase increase; dermatitis). The 12-month overall survival was 90%, and progression-free survival was 81%. Human papillomavirus genotype and HLA subtype were not associated with progression-free survival or overall survival. T cells expressing PD-1 increased after CRT, and levels were sustained with ipilimumab.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study's findings suggest that the use of immunotherapy after CRT for curative-intent treatment of patients with cervical cancer is tolerable and effective. The results indicated that PD-1 was upregulated after CRT and sustained with sequential ipilimumab therapy. These immune findings may help guide future therapies to harness the activated T-cell phenotype in patients with node-positive cervical cancer.

Secondary Surgical Cytoreduction for Recurrent Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND

Secondary surgical cytoreduction in women with platinum-sensitive, recurrent epithelial ovarian, primary peritoneal, or fallopian-tube ("ovarian") cancer is widely practiced but has not been evaluated in phase 3 investigation.

METHODS

We randomly assigned patients with recurrent ovarian cancer who had received one previous therapy, had an interval during which no platinum-based chemotherapy was used (platinum-free interval) of 6 months or more, and had investigator-determined resectable disease (to no macroscopic residual disease) to undergo secondary surgical cytoreduction and then receive platinum-based chemotherapy or to receive platinum-based chemotherapy alone. Adjuvant chemotherapy (paclitaxel-carboplatin or gemcitabine-carboplatin) and use of bevacizumab were at the discretion of the investigator. The primary end point was overall survival.

RESULTS

A total of 485 patients underwent randomization, 240 to secondary cytoreduction before chemotherapy and 245 to chemotherapy alone. The median follow-up was 48.1 months. Complete gross resection was achieved in 67% of the patients assigned to surgery who underwent the procedure. Platinum-based chemotherapy with bevacizumab followed by bevacizumab maintenance was administered to 84% of the patients overall and was equally distributed between the two groups. The hazard ratio for death (surgery vs. no surgery) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.72; P = 0.08), which corresponded to a median overall survival of 50.6 months and 64.7 months, respectively. Adjustment for platinum-free interval and chemotherapy choice did not alter the effect. The hazard ratio for disease progression or death (surgery vs. no surgery) was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.01; median progression-free survival, 18.9 months and 16.2 months, respectively). Surgical morbidity at 30 days was 9%; 1 patient (0.4%) died from postoperative complications. Patient-reported quality of life decreased significantly after surgery but did not differ significantly between the two groups after recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial involving patients with platinum-sensitive, recurrent ovarian cancer, secondary surgical cytoreduction followed by chemotherapy did not result in longer overall survival than chemotherapy alone. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others; GOG-0213 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00565851.).

Association of Cardiovascular Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction

Importance

Nearly half of all patients with heart failure have preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) as opposed to reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), yet associations of biomarkers with future heart failure subtype are incompletely understood.

Objective

To evaluate the associations of 12 cardiovascular biomarkers with incident HFpEF vs HFrEF among adults from the general population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study included 4 longitudinal community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990; 1992-1993 for supplemental African-American cohort), the Framingham Heart Study (1995-1998), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2002), and the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study (1997-1998). Each cohort had prospective ascertainment of incident HFpEF and HFrEF. Data analysis was performed from June 25, 2015, to November 9, 2017.

Exposures

The following biomarkers were examined: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T or I, C-reactive protein (CRP), urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), renin to aldosterone ratio, D-dimer, fibrinogen, soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity, galectin-3, cystatin C, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, and interleukin 6.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Development of incident HFpEF and incident HFrEF.

Results

Among the 22 756 participants in these 4 cohorts (12 087 women and 10 669 men; mean [SD] age, 60 [13] years) in the study, during a median follow-up of 12 years, 633 participants developed incident HFpEF, and 841 developed HFrEF. In models adjusted for clinical risk factors of heart failure, 2 biomarkers were significantly associated with incident HFpEF: UACR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.20-1.48; P < .001) and natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40; P < .001), with suggestive associations for high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19; P = .008), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.45; P = .02), and fibrinogen (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22; P = .01). By contrast, 6 biomarkers were associated with incident HFrEF: natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.68; P < .001), UACR (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32; P < .001), high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.29-1.46; P < .001), cystatin C (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.27; P < .001), D-dimer (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.35; P < .001), and CRP (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P < .001). When directly compared, natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, and CRP were more strongly associated with HFrEF compared with HFpEF.

Conclusions and Relevance

Biomarkers of renal dysfunction, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation were associated with incident HFrEF. By contrast, only natriuretic peptides and UACR were associated with HFpEF. These findings highlight the need for future studies focused on identifying novel biomarkers of the risk of HFpEF.

Final Overall Survival of a Randomized Trial of Bevacizumab for Primary Treatment of Ovarian Cancer

PURPOSE

We report the final, protocol-specified analysis of overall survival (OS) in GOG-0218, a phase III, randomized trial of bevacizumab in women with newly diagnosed ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal carcinoma.

METHODS

A total of 1,873 women with incompletely resected stage III to IV disease were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to six 21-day cycles of intravenous carboplatin (area under the concentration v time curve 6) and paclitaxel (175 mg/m²) versus chemotherapy plus concurrent bevacizumab (15 mg/kg, cycles 2 to 6) versus chemotherapy plus concurrent and maintenance bevacizumab (cycles 2 to 22). Inclusion criteria included a Gynecologic Oncology Group performance status of 0 to 2 and no history of clinically significant vascular events or evidence of intestinal obstruction. OS was analyzed in the intention-to-treat population. A total of 1,195 serum and/or tumor specimens were sequenced for BRCA1/2 and damaging mutations in homologous recombination repair (HRR) genes. Intratumoral microvessel density was studied using CD31 immunohistochemistry.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 102.9 months. Relative to control (n = 625), for patients receiving bevacizumab-concurrent (n = 625), the hazard ratio (HR) of death was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.20); for bevacizumab-concurrent plus maintenance (n = 623), the HR was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.85 to 1.09). Disease-specific survival was not improved in any arm. No survival advantage was observed after censoring patients who received bevacizumab at crossover or as second line. Median OS for stage IV bevacizumab-concurrent plus maintenance was 42.8 v 32.6 months for stage IV control (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.95). Relative to wild type, the HR for death for BRCA1/2 mutated carcinomas was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.73), and for non-BRCA1/2 HRR, the HR was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.85). BRCA1/2, HRR, and CD31 were not predictive of bevacizumab activity.

CONCLUSION

No survival differences were observed for patients who received bevacizumab compared with chemotherapy alone. Testing for BRCA1/2 mutations and homologous recombination deficiency is essential.

Recontact practices of cancer genetic counselors and an exploration of professional, legal, and ethical duty

The duty to recontact continues to be revisited in the field of clinical genetics and is currently relevant for cancer genetic counseling given the transition from single-gene to multi-gene panel testing. We recruited cancer genetic counselors through the National Society of Genetic Counselors list-serv to complete an online survey assessing current practices and perspectives regarding recontacting patients about diagnostic genetic tests. Forty-one percent of respondents reported that they have recontacted patients to offer updated (new) diagnostic genetic testing (40/97). A majority (61%, 17/28), of genetic counselors who reported recontact specifically for panel testing indicated that the availability of management recommendations for genes not previously tested routinely was an important factor in the decision to recontact. All respondents who recontacted patients reported "improved patient care" as a perceived benefit. Respondents indicated that recontact is mostly a patient responsibility (49%), followed by a shared responsibility between the provider and patient (43%). Few respondents (2%) reported a uniform ethical duty to recontact patients regarding new and updated testing, while the majority (89%) felt that there was some degree of ethical duty. A greater percentage of those who reported past recontact practices reported intention to recontact in the future (p = 0.001). There is little consensus among the genetic counselor respondents about how to approach the recontacting of patients to offer updated genetic testing.

The addition of paclitaxel to doxorubicin and cisplatin and volume-directed radiation does not improve overall survival (OS) or long-term recurrence-free survival (RFS) in advanced endometrial cancer (EC): A randomized phase III NRG/Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) study

OBJECTIVES

To determine if the addition of paclitaxel (P) to cisplatin and doxorubicin (CD) following surgical debulking and volume-directed radiation therapy improved long-term, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced-stage endometrial cancer (EC).

METHODS

Prospective, randomized GOG trial comparing (CD) (50 mg/m²)/(45 mg/m²) +/- (P) (160 mg/m²) following volume-directed radiation and surgery in advanced EC. A Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis characterized the relationship between treatment arms and the OS outcome, a log-rank test assessed the independence of treatment with the OS outcome, and the treatment effect on estimated OS was determined using a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model stratified by stage. The PH assumption was assessed using a test of interaction between treatment variable and the natural logarithm of survival time. Adverse events, regardless of attribution, were graded.

RESULTS

Since initial publication, 60 deaths occurred, leaving 311 patients alive with 290 (93.8%) recurrence- free. There was no significant decrease in the risk of recurrence or death associated with the CDP treatment regimen stratified for stage (p = 0.14, one-tail). The exploratory analysis for OS and the corresponding homogeneity tests for different effects across subgroups revealed only EFRT and EFRT & GRD status to have significantly different treatment effects (p = 0.027 and p = 0.017, respectively). Second primary malignancies were identified in 17/253 (6.4%) and 19/263 (7.0%) of patients treated with CD and CDP respectively. Breast (2.4%) followed by colon (1%) were the two cancers most frequently diagnosed in this setting.

CONCLUSION

No significant difference between treatment arms was identified. Subgroup analysis both in the initial and current reports demonstrated a trend towards improved RFS and OS in patients treated with CDP and EFRT. This long-term analysis of outcomes also identified the necessity of providing on-going cancer screening to patients enrolled in trials.

Adjuvant Gemcitabine Plus Docetaxel Followed by Doxorubicin Versus Observation for High-Grade Uterine Leiomyosarcoma: A Phase III NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group Study

PURPOSE

We conducted a randomized phase III trial to determine whether adjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in women with uterine leiomyosarcoma.

METHODS

Women with uterus-confined, high-grade leiomyosarcoma who were confirmed disease free by imaging were randomly assigned to four cycles of gemcitabine plus docetaxel, followed by four cycles of doxorubicin, or to observation. All were followed for evidence of recurrence. The primary end point was overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

With international collaboration, 38 of the targeted accrual of 216 patients were enrolled, after which the study was closed by the National Cancer Institute for accrual futility. Twenty patients were assigned to chemotherapy, 18 to observation. Among the 17 patients treated with at least one cycle of chemotherapy, grade 3 or 4 toxicities were observed in 47%; among the 18 patients assigned to observation, one had grade 3 hypertension. There were six deaths (chemotherapy, n = 5; observation, n = 1), all due to disease. The restricted mean survival time for OS was estimated as 34.3 months (95% CI, 25.3 to 43.3 months) in the chemotherapy arm and as 46.4 months (95% CI, 43.6 to 49.1 months) in the observation arm. There were eight recurrences in each arm. The restricted mean survival time for recurrence-free survival was estimated as 18.1 (95% CI, 14.2 to 22.0) months in the chemotherapy arm and as 14.6 months (95% CI, 10.3 to 19.0 months) in the observation arm. Neither survival outcome comparison was considered statistically robust, due to the small sample size.

CONCLUSION

Despite international collaboration to test the role of adjuvant chemotherapy in uterine-confined leiomyosarcoma, this study was closed for accrual futility. Although the sample size precludes robust statistical comparison, observed OS and recurrence-free survival data do not show superior outcomes with adjuvant chemotherapy.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence of and Mortality Associated With Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine temporal trends in the incidence of and mortality associated with heart failure (HF) and its subtypes (heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and heart rate with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF]) in the community.

BACKGROUND

Major shifts in cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalence and advances in therapies may have influenced HF incidence and mortality.

METHODS

In the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), for participants who were ≥60 years of age and free of HF (n = 15,217; 60% women; 2,524 incident HF cases; 115,703 person-years of follow-up), we estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios of HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF from 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2009. We compared the cumulative incidence of and mortality associated with HFrEF versus HFpEF within and between decades.

RESULTS

Across the 2 decades, HF incidence rate ratio was similar (p = 0.13). The incidence rate ratio of HFrEF declined (p = 0.0029), whereas HFpEF increased (p < 0.001). Although HFrEF incidence declined more in men than in women, men had a higher incidence of HFrEF than women in each decade (p < 0.001). The incidence of HFpEF significantly increased over time in both men and women (p < 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively). During follow-up after HF, 1,701 individuals died (67.4%; HFrEF, n = 557 [33%]; HFpEF, n = 474 [29%]). There were no significant differences in mortality rates (overall, cardiovascular disease, and noncardiovascular disease) across decades within HF subtypes or between HFrEF and HFpEF within decade.

CONCLUSIONS

In several U.S. community-based samples from 1990 to 2009, we observed divergent trends of decreasing HFrEF and increasing HFpEF incidence, with stable overall HF incidence and high risk for mortality. Our findings highlight the need to elucidate factors contributing to these observations.

Predictors and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction

AIMS

While heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well described, determinants and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) remain unclear. We sought to examine clinical and biochemical predictors of incident HFmrEF in the community.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We pooled data from four community-based longitudinal cohorts, with ascertainment of new heart failure (HF) classified into HFmrEF [ejection fraction (EF) 41-49%], HFpEF (EF ≥50%), and HFrEF (EF ≤40%). Predictors of incident HF subtypes were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Among 28 820 participants free of HF followed for a median of 12 years, there were 200 new HFmrEF cases, compared with 811 HFpEF and 1048 HFrEF. Clinical predictors of HFmrEF included age, male sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and prior myocardial infarction (multivariable adjusted P ≤ 0.003 for all). Biomarkers that predicted HFmrEF included natriuretic peptides, cystatin-C, and high-sensitivity troponin (P ≤ 0.0004 for all). Natriuretic peptides were stronger predictors of HFrEF [hazard ratio (HR) 2.00 per 1 standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.81-2.20] than of HFmrEF (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.20-1.90, P = 0.01 for difference), and did not differ in their association with incident HFmrEF and HFpEF (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.41-1.73, P = 0.68 for difference). All-cause mortality following the onset of HFmrEF was worse than that of HFpEF (50 vs. 39 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.02), but comparable to that of HFrEF (46 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

We found overlap in predictors of incident HFmrEF with other HF subtypes. In contrast, mortality risk after HFmrEF was worse than HFpEF, and similar to HFrEF.

Association of Parental Obesity and Diabetes Mellitus With Circulating Adipokines in Nonobese Nondiabetic Offspring

Background

Adipokines are implicated in the development of obesity‐related traits. We hypothesized that nonobese participants without diabetes mellitus (DM) whose parents were obese or had DM would have altered circulating adipokines compared with those without parental history of these conditions.

Methods and Results

Participants in the community‐based Framingham Third Generation cohort who were not obese (body mass index <30) and not diabetic with both parents in the Framingham Offspring cohort were included in this analysis (n=2034, mean age 40 years, 54% women). Circulating concentrations of fetuin A, RBP4 (retinol binding protein 4), FABP4 (fatty acid binding protein 4), leptin, LEP‐R (leptin receptor), and adiponectin were assayed. Parental DM was defined as occurring before age 60 years, and obesity was defined as body mass index ≥30 before age 60 years. General estimating equations were used to compare concentrations of adipokines among participants with 0, 1, or 2 parents affected by obesity or DM (separate analyses for each), adjusting for known correlates of adipokines. Overall, 44% had at least 1 parent who was obese and 15% had parents with DM. Parental obesity was associated with higher serum levels of FABP4 and LEP‐R in their offspring (P=0.02 for both). Parental DM was associated with lower adiponectin but higher RBP4 concentrations in offspring (P≤0.02 for both).

Conclusions

In our community‐based sample, a parental history of DM or obesity was associated with an altered adipokine profile in nonobese nondiabetic offspring. Additional studies are warranted to evaluate whether such preclinical biomarker alterations presage future risk of disease.

Predicting Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction: The International Collaboration on Heart Failure Subtypes

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent and deadly disease, and preventive strategies focused on at-risk individuals are needed. Current HF prediction models have not examined HF subtypes. We sought to develop and validate risk prediction models for HF with preserved and reduced ejection fraction (HFpEF, HFrEF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Of 28,820 participants from 4 community-based cohorts, 982 developed incident HFpEF and 909 HFrEF during a median follow-up of 12 years. Three cohorts were combined, and a 2:1 random split was used for derivation and internal validation, with the fourth cohort as external validation. Models accounted for multiple competing risks (death, other HF subtype, and unclassified HF). The HFpEF-specific model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, antihypertensive treatment, and previous myocardial infarction; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.82) and validation samples (internal: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.77-0.82 and external: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.71-0.80). The HFrEF-specific model additionally included smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, left bundle branch block, and diabetes mellitus; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80-0.84) and validation samples (internal: 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78-0.83 and external: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.80). Age was more strongly associated with HFpEF, and male sex, left ventricular hypertrophy, bundle branch block, previous myocardial infarction, and smoking with HFrEF (P value for each comparison ≤0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

We describe and validate risk prediction models for HF subtypes and show good discrimination in a large sample. Some risk factors differed between HFpEF and HFrEF, supporting the notion of pathogenetic differences among HF subtypes.

Association of Parental Hypertension With Arterial Stiffness in Nonhypertensive Offspring: The Framingham Heart Study

High arterial stiffness seems to be causally involved in the pathogenesis of hypertension. We tested the hypothesis that offspring of parents with hypertension may display higher arterial stiffness before clinically manifest hypertension, given that hypertension is a heritable condition. We compared arterial tonometry measures in a sample of 1564 nonhypertensive Framingham Heart Study third-generation cohort participants (mean age: 38 years; 55% women) whose parents were enrolled in the Framingham Offspring Study. A total of 468, 715, and 381 participants had 0 (referent), 1, and 2 parents with hypertension. Parental hypertension was associated with greater offspring mean arterial pressure (multivariable-adjusted estimate=2.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-3.9, and 4.2 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-5.5, for 1 and 2 parents with hypertension, respectively; P<0.001 for both) and with greater forward pressure wave amplitude (1.6 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-2.7, and 1.9 mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-3.2, for 1 and 2 parents with hypertension, respectively; P=0.003 for both). Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and augmentation index displayed similar dose-dependent relations with parental hypertension in sex-, age-, and height-adjusted models, but associations were attenuated on further adjustment. Offspring with at least 1 parent in the upper quartile of augmentation index and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity had significantly higher values themselves (P≤0.02). In conclusion, in this community-based sample of young, nonhypertensive adults, we observed greater arterial stiffness in offspring of parents with hypertension. These observations are consistent with higher vascular stiffness at an early stage in the pathogenesis of hypertension.

Plasma Fibroblast Growth Factor 23: Clinical Correlates and Association With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in the Framingham Heart Study

Background

Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is emerging as a novel biomarker of bone metabolism, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, its clinical correlates and potential predictive role in a community‐based setting are incompletely understood.

Methods and Results

We evaluated participants of the Framingham Heart Study (seventh examination cycle of the Offspring cohort plus second examination cycle of the multiethnic Omni cohort) to identify clinical correlates of plasma FGF23 (N=3236) and examine its cross‐sectional association with vascular function (N=2209), and longitudinal association with 10‐year incidence of CVD (N=2823), and all‐cause mortality (N=3223).

Circulating FGF23 concentrations were positively related to African‐American and Asian ethnicity, waist circumference, current smoking, serum glucose, history of CVD, and antihypertensive medication use; and negatively related to male sex, hormone replacement therapy, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Multivariable‐adjusted cross‐sectional analyses showed no consistent association of FGF23 with vascular function measures. During a median follow‐up time of 10.8 years, 347 incident CVD events and 412 deaths occurred. Multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression models revealed a positive association of FGF23 with all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD increase, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.20–1.42), but not with incident CVD (HR per SD increase, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.94–1.17).

Conclusions

In our large, community‐based sample, FGF23 was associated with mortality risk, but not with vascular function or incident CVD.

Association of Ideal Cardiovascular Health With Vascular Brain Injury and Incident Dementia

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The American Heart Association developed the ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) index as a simple tool to promote CVH; yet, its association with brain atrophy and dementia remains unexamined.

METHODS

Our aim was to investigate the prospective association of ideal CVH with vascular brain injury, including the 10-year risks of incident stroke and dementia, as well as cognitive decline and brain atrophy on magnetic resonance imaging, measured for ≈7 years. We studied 2750 stroke- and dementia-free Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort participants (mean age, 62±9 years; 45% men). Ideal CVH was quantified on a 7-point scale with 1 point awarded for each of the following: nonsmoking status, ideal body mass index, regular physical activity, healthy diet, as well as optimum blood pressure, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose. Both recent (baseline) and remote (6.9 years earlier) ideal CVH scores were examined.

RESULTS

Recent ideal CVH was associated with stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.95), vascular dementia (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.81), frontal brain atrophy (P=0.003), and cognitive decline on tasks measuring visual memory and reasoning (P<0.05). In addition to predicting stroke, vascular dementia, whole-brain atrophy, and cognitive decline, remote ideal CVH was associated with the incidence of all-cause dementia (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.97) and Alzheimer disease (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to the American Heart Association's ideal CVH factors and behaviors, particularly in midlife, may protect against cerebrovascular disease and dementia.

Relations of circulating GDF-15, soluble ST2, and troponin-I concentrations with vascular function in the community: The Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), soluble (s)ST2, and high-sensitivity troponin-I (hs-TnI) are associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) including heart failure, yet the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. We investigated if GDF-15, sST2, and hs-TnI are related to subclinical vascular dysfunction in the community, which may explain the relations of these biomarkers with CVD.

METHODS

We evaluated 1823 Framingham Study participants (mean age 61 ± 10 years, 54% women) who underwent routine assessment of vascular function. We related circulating GDF-15, sST2, and hs-TnI concentrations to measures of arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, CFPWV; augmentation index; and forward pressure wave amplitude, FW), endothelial-dependent vasodilation (flow-mediated dilation, FMD), and baseline and hyperemic brachial flow velocities using linear regression adjusting for standard risk factors.

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustment, GDF-15 levels were positively associated with CFPWV (0.044 [95% confidence interval 0.007-0.081] standard deviation [SD] change per SD increase in loge[GDF-15], p = 0.02) and FW (0.076 [0.026-0.126] SD change per SD increase in loge[GDF-15], p = 0.003) and inversely related to FMD (-0.051 [-0.101-0.0003] SD change per SD increase in loge[GDF-15], p = 0.048). sST2 was positively associated with CFPWV (0.032 [0.0005-0.063] SD change per SD increase in loge[sST2], p = 0.046), and hs-TnI inversely associated with hyperemic flow velocity (-0.041 [-0.082-0.0004] SD change per SD increase in loge[hs-TnI], p = 0.048).

CONCLUSION

In our community-based investigation, individual cardiac stress biomarkers were differentially related to select aspects of vascular function. These findings may contribute to the associations of circulating GDF-15, sST2, and hs-TnI with incident CVD and heart failure.

Implications of the US cholesterol guidelines on eligibility for statin therapy in the community: comparison of observed and predicted risks in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort

Background

Concerns have been raised that the 2013 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimator overpredicts risk in contemporary cohorts. Whether suboptimal calibration will lead to overtreatment with statins is unknown. We investigated the numbers of people eligible for statin treatment in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort, based on the 2013 cholesterol guidelines, and estimated the proportion that may be overtreated as a result of potential miscalibration of the ASCVD estimator.

Methods and Results

During a median follow‐up of 10 years, we observed 285 ASCVD events (8.4%; comprising ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, and coronary artery disease death) among 3396 men and 112 events (2.9%) among 3838 women. Hosmer–Lemeshow chi‐square statistics were 16.3 in men (340 predicted versus 285 observed events) and 29.1 in women (166 predicted versus 112 observed events). Overprediction predominantly occurred among women in the highest risk decile and among men in the ≥7th risk deciles, for which observed ASCVD event rates were ≥7.5%. In total, 2615 participants (36%; 867 women) were eligible for statins based on the new guidelines. Of these, 171 women (20%) and 154 men (9%) were reclassified downward (as not eligible for statin therapy) using a recalibrated ASCVD estimator. In the latter group, 18 women (10.5%; 95% CI 5.9% to 15.2%) and 11 men (7.1%; 95% CI 3.0% to 11.3%) experienced ASCVD.

Conclusions

The risk estimator overpredicted ASCVD risk but did so mainly among high‐risk participants who would be considered eligible for statin use anyway. Our findings may mitigate concerns regarding the potential impact of miscalibration of the ASCVD estimator in contemporary cohorts.

Association of exhaled carbon monoxide with subclinical cardiovascular disease and their conjoint impact on the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes

AIMS

Whereas endogenous carbon monoxide (CO) is cytoprotective at physiologic levels, excess CO concentrations are associated with cardiometabolic risk and may represent an important marker of progression from subclinical to clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 1926 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (aged 57 ± 10 years, 46% women), we investigated the relationship of exhaled CO, a surrogate of blood CO concentration, with both prevalent subclinical CVD and incident clinical CVD events. Presence of subclinical CVD was determined using a comprehensive panel of diagnostic tests used to assess cardiac and vascular structure and function. Individuals with the highest (>5 p.p.m.) compared with lowest (≤4 p.p.m.) CO exposure were more likely to have subclinical CVD [odds ratios (OR): 1.67, 95% CI: 1.32-2.12; P < 0.001]. During the follow-up period (mean 5 ± 3 years), 193 individuals developed overt CVD. Individuals with both high CO levels and any baseline subclinical CVD developed overt CVD at an almost four-fold higher rate compared with those with low CO levels and no subclinical disease (22.1 vs. 6.3%). Notably, elevated CO was associated with incident CVD in the presence [hazards ration (HR): 1.83, 95% CI: 1.08-3.11; P = 0.026] but not in the absence (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.42-1.53; P = 0.51) of subclinical CVD (Pinteraction = 0.019). Similarly, subclinical CVD was associated with incident CVD in the presence of high but not low CO exposure.

CONCLUSION

Our findings in a community-based sample suggest that elevated CO is a marker of greater subclinical CVD burden and, furthermore, a potential key component in the progression from subclinical to clinical CVD.