Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of Published Estimates of the National Prevalence of Iron, Vitamin A, and Zinc Deficiency and Sources of Inconsistencies

Micronutrient deficiencies result in a broad range of adverse health and functional consequences, but the true prevalence of specific deficiencies remains uncertain because limited information is available from nationally representative surveys using recommended biomarkers. The present review compares various reported national deficiency prevalence estimates for nutrients and years where the estimates overlap for individual countries that conducted nationally representative surveys and explores possible reasons for any discrepancies discovered. Nationally representative micronutrient status surveys that were conducted since 2000 among preschool-aged children or women of reproductive age and included assessment of iron, vitamin A, or zinc status based on recognized biomarkers were considered eligible for inclusion, along with any modeled deficiency prevalence estimates for these same countries and years. There was considerable variation across different published prevalence estimates, with larger inconsistencies when the prevalence estimate was based on proxies, such as hemoglobin for iron deficiency and dietary zinc availability for zinc deficiency. Numerous additional methodological issues affected the prevalence estimates, such as which biomarker and what cutoff was used to define deficiency, whether the biomarker was adjusted for inflammation, and what adjustment method was used. For some country-years, the various approaches resulted in fairly consistent prevalence estimates. For other country-years, however, the results differed markedly and changed the conclusions regarding the existence and severity of the micronutrient deficiency as a public health concern. In conclusion, to determine micronutrient status, we consider the assessment of one of the recommended biomarkers in a population representative survey as the best available information. If indicated, results should be adjusted for inflammation and generally acceptable cutoffs should be applied to facilitate comparisons, although individual countries may also apply nationally defined cutoffs to determine when and where to intervene. Global consensus is needed on best practices for presenting survey results and defining the prevalence of deficiency.

Disordered eating behaviours and body shape dissatisfaction among adolescents with type 1 diabetes: a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

Disordered eating behaviours (DEBs) are variations in regular eating patterns and behaviours and might include symptoms and behaviours of eating disorder with lower level of severity. Such behaviours are common during adolescence at which time several physical and psychological changes occur favouring unhealthy dietary behaviours. Although the magnitude of DEBs is high among high-income countries, similar data are limited among adolescents with diabetes in low-income countries including Ethiopia. This study aimed to assess the magnitude of DEBs and its relationship with body shape dissatisfaction among adolescents with diabetes on follow-up at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

METHODS

Hospital based cross sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 395 adolescents with diabetes attending public hospitals in Addis Ababa from January to December, 2021. Data were collected using structured pretested standard diabetes eating problem survey revised (DEPS-R) questionnaire, body part satisfaction scale of 8 items, and anthropometric measurements. Descriptive statistics such as median alongside interquartile range was used to describe the continuous variables. Binary bivariable and multivariable logistic regression was used for data analysis. Mann-Whitney U-test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to evaluate the difference between median scores of independent variables. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) alongside 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to measure the strength of association between variables of interest.

RESULTS

The magnitude of disordered eating behaviours within the last 30 days was 43.3%, [95% CI: (38%, 48%)]. In multivariable analysis, body shape dissatisfaction [AOR = 2.21, 95% CI (1.28, 3.82, p = 0.0001)], family history of diabetes mellitus [AOR = 1.59, 95% CI (1.03, 2.47, p = 0.038)], late adolescence period [AOR = 2.10, 95% CI (1.33, 3.34, p = 0.002)], having diabetic complication[AOR = 2.32, 95% CI (1.43, 3.75, p = 0.001)],and being overweight [AOR = 2.25, 95% CI (1.32, 3.82, p = 0.003)] were significantly associated with DEBs.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of DEBs was high among the study participants. Body shape dissatisfaction, family history of diabetes mellitus, being in late adolescence period, diabetic complication, and nutritional status of adolescents were significantly associated with DEBs. Therefore, preventive interventions need to be designed by all relevant actors working on health promotion of young population to address factors influencing DEBs among adolescent population with diabetes.

Impacts of micronutrient intervention programs on effective coverage and lives saved: Modeled evidence from Cameroon

Policymakers are committed to improving nutritional status and to saving lives. Some micronutrient intervention programs (MIPs) can do both, but not to the same degrees. We apply the Micronutrient Intervention Modeling tool to compare sets of MIPs for (1) achieving dietary adequacy separately for zinc, vitamin A (VA), and folate for children and women of reproductive age (WRA), and (2) saving children's lives via combinations of MIPs. We used 24-h dietary recall data from Cameroon to estimate usual intake distributions of zinc and VA for children 6-59 months and of folate for WRA. We simulated the effects on dietary inadequacy and lives saved of four fortified foods and two VA supplementation (VAS) platforms. We estimated program costs over 10 years. To promote micronutrient-specific dietary adequacy, the economic optimization model (EOM) selected zinc- and folic acid-fortified wheat flour, VA-fortified edible oils, and bouillon cubes, and VAS via Child Health Days in the North macroregion. A different set of cost-effective MIPs emerged for reducing child mortality, shifting away from VA and toward more zinc for children and more folic acid for WRA. The EOM identified more efficient sets of MIPs than the business-as-usual MIPs, especially among programs aiming to save lives.

Health effects associated with vegetable consumption: a Burden of Proof study

Previous research suggests a protective effect of vegetable consumption against chronic disease, but the quality of evidence underlying those findings remains uncertain. We applied a Bayesian meta-regression tool to estimate the mean risk function and quantify the quality of evidence for associations between vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, type 2 diabetes and esophageal cancer. Increasing from no vegetable consumption to the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (306-372 g daily) was associated with a 23.2% decline (95% uncertainty interval, including between-study heterogeneity: 16.4-29.4) in ischemic stroke risk; a 22.9% (13.6-31.3) decline in IHD risk; a 15.9% (1.7-28.1) decline in hemorrhagic stroke risk; a 28.5% (-0.02-51.4) decline in esophageal cancer risk; and a 26.1% (-3.6-48.3) decline in type 2 diabetes risk. We found statistically significant protective effects of vegetable consumption for ischemic stroke (three stars), IHD (two stars), hemorrhagic stroke (two stars) and esophageal cancer (two stars). Including between-study heterogeneity, we did not detect a significant association with type 2 diabetes, corresponding to a one-star rating. Although current evidence supports increased efforts and policies to promote vegetable consumption, remaining uncertainties suggest the need for continued research.

Aflatoxin exposure among children of age 12-59 Months in Butajira District, South-Central Ethiopia: a community based cross-sectional study

Background

The continued provision of safe food, free of aflatoxin remains a huge challenge in developing countries. Despite several favourable climatic conditions that facilitate aflatoxin contamination in Ethiopia, there is little information showing aflatoxin exposure in children. Therefore, this study assessed aflatoxin exposure among young children in Butajira district, South-Central Ethiopia.

Methods

Community based cross-sectional study stratified by agro-ecology was employed in Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) of Butajira. The study included 332 children aged 12–59 months and were selected by simple random sampling technique using the HDSS registration number as a sampling frame. We collected data on dietary practice and aflatoxin exposure. Aflatoxin M1 concentration in urine was measured by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The data analysis was carried out using STATA.

Results

Detectable urinary Aflatoxin M1 was found in 62.4% (95% CI: 56.9 – 67.5%) of the children at a level ranging from 0.15 to 0.4 ng/ml. Children living in lowland agro-ecological zone had [AOR = 2.11 (95% CI; 1.15, 3.88] odds of being exposed to aflatoxin as compared to children living in highland agro-ecological zone. Children at lower socio-economic status [AOR = 0.27 (95% CI; 0.14, 0.50] and medium socio-economic status [AOR = 0.47 (95% CI; 0.25, 0.87] had 73% and 53% lower odds of being exposed to aflatoxin as compared to children in the higher socio-economic status, respectively.

Conclusions

Aflatoxin exposure among young children was very high in South-Central Ethiopia. This high aflatoxin exposure might emphasize the need for aflatoxin exposure mitigation strategies in Ethiopia. Especially, raising awareness of the community towards aflatoxin exposure is very crucial. In addition, further research is required to assess long-term aflatoxin exposure and its association with child growth and development.

Population vitamin D status might be related to COVID-19 mortality but not with infection rate in Africa: evidence from ecological analysis

Introduction

there is a large body of literature that has linked vitamin D status in the population with COVID-19 infection risk and disease severity. However, there is paucity of evidence in African context. Hence, this study aimed to conduct an ecological analysis to explore correlation between population level vitamin D status, COVID-19 infection, and mortality in Africa.

Methods

an ecological study was conducted using data from different open sources, published literatures and organizational databases. In the final analysis, we included 23 African countries which had data on prevalence of vitamin D deficiency, population level mean serum 25 (OH) D concentrations and COVID-19 data. We employed spearman correlation and linear regression. All tests were two-sided, and P- value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

based on our analysis, the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency is positively correlated (r=0.6265; p= 0.0094) while mean 25(OH) D concentration is negatively correlated (r=-0.4941; p= 0.0194) with COVID-19 mortality. In addition, the median age of the national population (r=0.7015; p= 0.0003), prevalence of current use of tobacco (r=0.6071; p= 0.0075) and prevalence of obesity among adult population (r=0.7143; p= 0.0003) were positively correlated with both COVID-19 infection and mortality in Africa. Nonetheless, vitamin D status was not positively correlated with observed case fatality rate and COVID-19 infection rate.

Conclusion

population vitamin D status might be related to COVID-19 mortality but not with infection rate in Africa. Due to the increasing weight of evidence that shows a link between COVID-19 and vitamin D, we strongly recommend well-designed controlled studies to explore causality and clinical trials to find out the effect of vitamin-D supplementation in the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 in African settings.

Applying Zinc Nutrient Reference Values as Proposed by Different Authorities Results in Large Differences in the Estimated Prevalence of Inadequate Zinc Intake by Young Children and Women and in Cameroon

Nutrient reference values (NRVs) for zinc set by several expert groups differ widely and may affect the predicted prevalence of inadequate zinc intake. We examined this possibility using NRVs published by four different authorities and nationally representative dietary intake data collected among children aged 12–59 months and women in Cameroon. Usual zinc intake was estimated from 24 h recall data using the National Cancer Institute method. Prevalences of total zinc intake below the dietary requirement and of “absorbable zinc intake” below the physiological requirement were estimated using NRVs published by the World Health Organization (WHO), US Institute of Medicine (IOM), International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group (IZiNCG), and European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake ranged from 10% (IZiNCG—physiological requirement, 95% CI 7–13%) to 81% (EFSA—physiological requirement, 95% CI 78–84%) among children and 9% (WHO—physiological requirement, 95% CI 8–11.0%) to 94% (IOM—physiological requirement, 95% CI 92–95%) among women These differences in the prevalence of inadequate intake translated into sizeable differences in the predicted benefit and cost-effectiveness of zinc fortification programs. Depending on the NRVs applied, assessments differ regarding the need for and design of zinc fortification programs. Efforts are needed to harmonize NRVs for zinc.

Effectiveness of a nutrition education and counselling training package on antenatal care: a cluster randomized controlled trial in Addis Ababa

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the need for a strong nutrition training package for practitioners, including antenatal care (ANC) providers. Without such a training package, ANC visits remain a missed opportunity to address nutritional problems among pregnant women. This study evaluated the effectiveness of an in-service nutrition education and counselling package on the providers' counselling skills during ANC visits. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. All health-care providers working in ANC units across 20 health centres participated in this study. Health centres were allocated to intervention and control arms using a matched-pair randomization technique. An in-service nutrition education and counselling package, including training for ANC providers, supportive supervision and provision of modules, pamphlets and job aids, was provided for health centres assigned to the intervention arm. Observation checklists were used to assess the counselling skills of health-care providers. We used mixed-effect linear regression to evaluate the impact of the intervention. Significantly more health-care providers in the intervention arm informed pregnant women about the need to have one additional meal (Difference in proportion [DP] 49.17% vs -0.84%; DID 50.0%), about minimum required dietary diversity (DP 72.5% vs -2.5%; DID 75.0%) and about gestational weight gain (DP 68.33% vs -8.33%; DID 76.6%). Furthermore, providers improved in identifying key difficulties that pregnant women face (DP 28.34% vs -2.5%; DID 30.8%), and in recommending simple achievable actions on nutrition during pregnancy (DP 20.8% vs -10.9%; DID 31.6%). The intervention did not have statistically significant effects on how providers informed women about early initiation of breastfeeding (DP 6.67% vs 9.17%; DID -2.5%). The comprehensive in-service nutrition education and counselling package improved how ANC providers engaged with pregnant women and delivered nutrition messages during ANC consultations. This trial was registered in the Pan African Clinical Trial (PACTR registry, PACTR20170900 2477373; Date issued 21 September 2017).

Within-Person Variation in Nutrient Intakes across Populations and Settings: Implications for the Use of External Estimates in Modeling Usual Nutrient Intake Distributions

Determining the proportion of a population at risk of inadequate or excessive nutrient intake is a crucial step in planning and managing nutrition intervention programs. Multiple days of 24-h dietary intake data per subject allow for adjustment of modeled usual nutrient intake distributions for the proportion of total variance in intake attributable to within-individual variation (WIV:total). When only single-day dietary data are available, an external adjustment factor can be used; however, WIV:total may vary by population, and use of incorrect WIV:total ratios may influence the accuracy of prevalence estimates and subsequent program impacts. WIV:total values were compiled from publications and from reanalyses of existing datasets to describe variation in WIV:total across populations and settings. The potential impact of variation in external WIV:total on estimates of prevalence of inadequacy was assessed through simulation analyses using the National Cancer Institute 1-d method. WIV:total values were extracted from 40 publications from 24 countries, and additional values were calculated from 15 datasets from 12 nations. Wide variation in WIV:total (from 0.02 to 1.00) was observed in publications and reanalyses. Few patterns by population characteristics were apparent, but WIV:total varied by age in children (< vs. >1 y) and between rural and urban settings. Simulation analyses indicated that estimates of the prevalence of inadequate intake are sensitive to the selected ratio in some cases. Selection of an external WIV:total estimate should consider comparability between the reference and primary studies with regard to population characteristics, study design, and statistical methods. Given wide variation in observed ratios with few discernible patterns, the collection of ≥2 days of intake data in at least a representative subsample in population dietary studies is strongly encouraged. In the case of single-day dietary studies, sensitivity analyses are recommended to determine the robustness of prevalence estimates to changes in the variance ratio.

Micronutrient Fortification of Commercially Available Biscuits Is Predicted to Have Minimal Impact on Prevalence of Inadequate Micronutrient Intakes: Modeling of National Dietary Data From Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Voluntarily fortified snack products are increasingly available but are not necessarily formulated to meet known dietary nutrient gaps, so potential impacts on population micronutrient intake adequacy are uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

We modeled the impacts of hypothetical micronutrient-fortified biscuits on inadequate micronutrient intake in children and women of reproductive age (WRA) in Cameroon.

METHODS

In a nationally representative survey stratified by macro-region (North, South, and Yaoundé/Douala), 24-h dietary recall data were collected from 883 children aged 12-59 mo and from 912 WRA. We estimated usual nutrient intake by the National Cancer Institute method for vitamin A, folate, vitamin B-12, zinc, and iron. We simulated the impact of biscuit fortification on prevalence of micronutrient intake below the estimated average requirement, given observed biscuit consumption, in the presence and absence of large-scale food fortification (LSFF) programs.

RESULTS

Biscuit consumption in the prior 24-h by children and WRA, respectively, ranged from 4.5% and 1.5% in the South, to 20.7% and 5.9% in Yaoundé/Douala. In the absence of LSFF programs, biscuits fortified with retinol (600 μg/100 g), folic acid (300 μg/100 g), and zinc (8 mg/100 g) were predicted to reduce the prevalence of inadequacy among children by 10.3 ± 4.4, 13.2 ± 4.2, and 12.0 ± 6.1 percentage points, respectively, in Yaoundé/Douala. However, when existing vitamin A-fortified oil, and folic acid-fortified and zinc-fortified wheat flour programs were considered, the additional impacts of fortified biscuits were reduced substantially. Micronutrient-fortified biscuits were predicted to have minimal impact on dietary inadequacy in WRA, with or without LSFF programs.

CONCLUSIONS

Given observed patterns of biscuit consumption in Cameroon, biscuit fortification is unlikely to reduce dietary inadequacy of studied micronutrients, except possibly for selected nutrients in children in urban areas in the absence of LSFF programs. As voluntary fortification becomes increasingly common, modeling studies could help guide efforts to ensure that fortified products align with public health goals.

Performance of mid-upper arm circumference as a screening tool for identifying adolescents with overweight and obesity

Background

Adolescent overweight and obesity is a global public health problem, associated with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome. Recently, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) has been suggested as a screening tool to identify overweight and obesity among school-age children and early adolescents (5–14 years). However, little is known about the potential use of MUAC in the late adolescence period (15–19 years). Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the performance of MUAC to identify overweight (including obesity) in the late adolescence period in Ethiopia.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study among 851 adolescents aged 15 to 19 years. We collected anthropometric data including MUAC, weight and height with the help of trained field workers. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to examine the validity of MUAC compared to BMI Z score in identifying adolescents with overweight or obesity. Furthermore, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), proportion of correctly classified, positive, and negative likelihood ratio for the proposed optimal cut-offs.

Results

MUAC was strongly correlated with BMI Z score with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.81 (95% CI; 0.79–0.84). The optimal MUAC cut-off for identifying adolescents with overweight or obesity was 27.7 cm for males and 27.9 cm for females. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.96 (95% CI; 0.93–0.98) for males and 0.96 (95% CI; 0.94–0.98) for females. The accuracy level of MUAC to identify adolescents with overweight (including obesity) was high for both sexes (overall a sensitivity of 91.1% and a specificity of 90.3%).

Conclusions

MUAC has relatively equivalent accuracy with BMI Z score to identify overweight and obesity in adolescents. Hence, MUAC could be used as an alternative tool for surveillance and screening of overweight in adolescents aged 15–19 years.

Predictive accuracy of perceived baby birth size for birth weight: a cross-sectional study from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

OBJECTIVES

The study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of maternally perceived baby birth size assessments as a measure of birth weight and examine factors influencing the accuracy of maternal size assessments.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

The study is based on national data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 1455 children who had both birth size and birth weight data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive accuracy of baby birth size for low birth weight. Level of discordance between maternally perceived birth size and birth weight including factors influencing discordance.

RESULTS

Mother-reported baby birth size had low sensitivity (57%) and positive predictive value (41%) to indicate low birth weight but had high specificity (89%) and negative predictive values (94%). The per cent of agreement between birth weight (<2500 g vs ≥2500 g) and maternally perceived birth size (small size vs average or above) was 86% and kappa statistics indicated a moderate level of agreement (kappa=0.41, p<0.001). Maternal age, wealth index quintile, marital status and maternal education were significant predictors of the discordance between birth size and birth weight.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal assessment of baby size at birth is an inaccurate proxy indicator of low birth weight in Ethiopia. Therefore, a mother's recall of birth size should be used as a proxy indicator for low birth weight with caution and should take maternal characteristics into consideration.

Good governance, public health expenditures, urbanization and child undernutrition Nexus in Ethiopia: an ecological analysis

Background

Child undernutrition remains the major public health problem in low and middle-income countries including Ethiopia. The effects of good governance, urbanization and public health expenditure on childhood undernutrition are not well studied in developing countries. The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between quality of governance, public health expenditures, urbanization and child undernutrition in Ethiopia.

Methods

This is pooled data analysis with ecological design. We obtained data on childhood undernutrition from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) that were conducted in 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2016. Additionally, data on quality of governance for Ethiopia were extracted from the World Governance Indicators (WGI) and public health spending and urbanization were obtained from the World Development Indicators and United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP) respectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis were done to assess the relationship between governance, public health expenditure and urbanization with childhood undernutrition.

Result

Government effectiveness (adjusted odd ratio (AOR) = 20.7; p = 0.046), regulatory quality (AOR = 0.0077; p = 0.026) and control of corruption (AOR = 0.0019; p = 0.000) were associated with stunting. Similarly, government effectiveness (AOR = 72.2; p = 0.007), regulatory quality (AOR = 0.0015; p = 0.004) and control of corruption (AOR = 0.0005; p = 0.000) were associated with underweight. None of the governance indicators were associated with wasting. On the other hand, there is no statistically significant association observed between public health spending and urbanization with childhood undernutrition. However, other socio-demographic variables play a significant effect on reducing of child undernutrition.

Conclusion

This study indicates that good governance in the country plays a significant role for reducing childhood undernutrition along with other socio-demographic factors. Concerned bodies should focus on improving governance and producing a quality policy and at the same time monitor its implementation and adherence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3822-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Health related quality of life of gynaecologic cancer patients attending at Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital (TASH), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Being diagnosed with gynaecologic malignancy certainly will have different sequelae which can hamper quality of life (QOL).This study aimed to assess health related quality of life (HRQOL) among gynaecologic cancer patients attending at Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital (TASH), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study employed facility-based cross-sectional study design on 153 gynaecological cancer patients attending TASH using the Amharic version of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30). We used descriptive statistics, independent t test and one way analysis of variance (ANOVA) in statistical analysis.

RESULTS

The mean Global Health Status (GHS) was 40.95(SD ± 24.35) and of the functional scores, social function was most affected (42.26, SD ± 32.08), whereas cognitive function is the least affected domain (mean = 88.21, SD ± 18.49). The highest score on the symptom scores was found to be financial difficulties (mean = 64.76, SD ± 32.43) followed by pain (mean = 55.12, SD ± 29.64) and fatigue (mean = 53.97, SD ± 28.54); the lowest score on the contrary was scored for diarrhea (mean = 1.19, SD ± 7.38). As stage increases there was a statistically significant reduction in GHS (p = 0.005) and in all functional score domains except the physical and emotional function. Advancement in stage of the disease has also affected significantly the symptom score domains except financial difficulties, nausea /vomiting and diarrhea. Patients who never went to school have scored a statistically significant lower score in GHS, physical function, role function and social function (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

GHS, social function, financial difficulties, pain and fatigue were the most affected domains; however, cognitive function and diarrhea were less affected components of HRQOL of gynaecologic cancer patients. Place of residence, educational status, marital status, payment type, cancer type and stage of the disease were associated with different quality of life scores.

Epidemiology of obesity and overweight in sub-Saharan Africa: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Globally, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3.4 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost and 3.8% of disability-adjusted life years in 2010. Despite the fact that obesity and overweight is a problem of high-income countries, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), in particular urban settings of sub-Saharan African countries, face the challenge of an increasing trend. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis will be to determine the prevalence of obesity and overweight individuals in sub-Saharan Africa and to help guide policy planners in the decision-making process for the increase in non-communicable diseases in Africa.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies on the prevalence of obesity and overweight in sub-Saharan Africa will be conducted. A computerised internet search using Medline/PubMed, Google Scholar and EMBASE databases and reference lists of previous prevalence studies and detailed search strategy and cross-checking of reference lists of published peer-reviewed articles will be conducted to identify all epidemiological and/or clinical studies published in English and French. We will use the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement for reporting. The overall effect (pooled estimated effect size) of the prevalence of obesity and overweight will be analysed using the Der Simonian-Laird random effects meta-analysis (random effects model) and the obesity proportion (with 95% CI) will be measured.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The underlying work is based on systematic reviews of published data and thus doed not require ethical review approval. The findings of the systematic review will be disseminated in different conferences and seminars and will be published in a reputable and refereed international peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017064942.

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Differences in spatial distributions of iron supplementation use among pregnant women and associated factors in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2011 national population based survey

BACKGROUND

Iron supplementation during pregnancy prevents against low birth weight, incidence of prematurity and postpartum hemorrhage. However, the coverage of iron supplementation is still low in Ethiopia. This study aimed to investigate the spatial variations and associated factors of iron supplementation during pregnancy using the 2011 national demographic and health survey data.

METHODS

This study used secondary data from the 2011 Ethiopian demographic and health survey. The survey was cross sectional and used a multistage cluster sampling procedure. A logistic regression statistical model using adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to identify the associated factors. Getis-Ord G-statistic was used to identify high and low hotspot areas of iron tablet supplementation during pregnancy.

RESULTS

The coverage of iron tablet supplementation was 17.1% [95%CI: (16.3-17.9)] with the highest coverage of 38.9% [95%CI: (32.4--46.1)] in Addis Ababa followed by Tigray regional state with 33.8% [95%CI: (29.9-38.00)]. The lowest coverage was found in Oromiya regional state at 11.9% [95%CI: (10.7-13.0)]. Multivariable analysis showed that mothers who were aware of the Community Conversation Program had 20% [AOR = 1.2; 95% CI: (1.04-1.4)] higher odds of taking iron tablets. The odds of taking iron tablets was 2.9 times [AOR = 2.9; 95% CI: (2.3-3.7)] higher among those who took deworming tablets. Those mothers who attended the minimum four antenatal visits recommended by WHO were 3.9 times [AOR = 3.9; 95% CI: (3.3-4.6)] more likely and those mothers in the age group 31-49 years were 2.9 times [AOR = 2.9; 95% CI: (1.1-7.4)] more likely to use iron tablets as compared to those mothers who did not attend antenatal care and mothers in the age group less than 20 years. Mothers having a family size of 10 and above had 32% [AOR = 0.68; 95% CI: (0.49-0.97)] lower odds of taking iron tablets during pregnancy. The spatial analysis found that only northern, central and eastern parts of Ethiopia were identified as hotspots of iron supplementation.

CONCLUSION

Iron supplementation use was not equally distributed in Ethiopia, with relatively higher prevalence in Tigray, Addis Ababa and Harari regional states. Attention should be given to younger age mothers, mothers with large family size and mothers who reside in areas with low coverage of iron tablet distribution. Promotion of antenatal care services based on the WHO standard can be used as an intervention for improving iron supplementation during pregnancy.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reliability and Validity of Amharic Version of EORTC QLQ-C 30 Questionnaire among Gynecological Cancer Patients in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a growing public health problem worldwide. The focus of cancer treatment, in addition to curation, is improving the quality of life (QOL). This study aimed to assess the reliability and validity of Amharic version of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Core Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) among gynecological cancer patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted using the Amharic version of EORTC QLQ-C30 on 153 gynecological cancer patients in Tikur Anbassa Specialized Hospital (TASH), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multivariable linear regression were employed in statistical analysis.

RESULTS

The Amharic version of EORTC QLQ-C30 had a Cronbach's α value of 0.81. The internal consistency for each domain of EORTC QLQ-C30 was also acceptable (Cronbach's α >0.7) except for cognitive function domain (Cronbach's α = 0.29). Stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis showed that emotional functioning (p<0.001), fatigue (p<0.001) and social functioning (p = 0.004) were the determinative scales of EORTC QLQ-C30 on global health status (GHS). The clinical validity test (Known group validity) showed that there were significant differences in score for twelve out of 15 domains, between surgery and radiation scheduled patients. All items of emotional function, role function, fatigue, and GHS meet the discriminate validity criterion.

CONCLUSION

The Amharic version of EORTC QLQ-C30 found to be reliable and had an acceptable validity to assess the QOL for gynecological cancer patients. We recommend further work on the validity and responsiveness of the EORTC QLQ-C30 with stronger design.

Height for age z score and cognitive function are associated with Academic performance among school children aged 8-11 years old

Background

Academic achievement of school age children can be affected by several factors such as nutritional status, demographics, and socioeconomic factors. Though evidence about the magnitude of malnutrition is well established in Ethiopia, there is a paucity of evidence about the association of nutritional status with academic performance among the nation’s school age children. Hence, this study aimed to determine how nutritional status and cognitive function are associated with academic performance of school children in Goba town, South East Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among 131 school age students from primary schools in Goba town enrolled during the 2013/2014 academic year. The nutritional status of students was assessed by anthropometric measurement, while the cognitive assessment was measured by the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children (KABC-II) and Ravens colored progressive matrices (Raven’s CPM) tests. The academic performance of the school children was measured by collecting the preceding semester academic result from the school record. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariable linear regression were used in the statistical analysis.

Results

This study found a statistically significant positive association between all cognitive test scores and average academic performance except for number recall (p = 0.12) and hand movements (p = 0.08). The correlation between all cognitive test scores and mathematics score was found positive and statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the multivariable linear regression model, better wealth index was significantly associated with higher mathematics score (ß = 0.63; 95 % CI: 0.12–0.74). Similarly a unit change in height for age z score resulted in 2.11 unit change in mathematics score (ß = 2.11; 95 % CI: 0.002–4.21). A single unit change of wealth index resulted 0.53 unit changes in average score of all academic subjects among school age children (ß = 0.53; 95 % CI: 0.11–0.95). A single unit change of age resulted 3.23 unit change in average score of all academic subjects among school age children (ß = 3.23; 95 % CI: 1.20–5.27).

Conclusion

Nutritional status (height for age Z score) and wealth could be modifiable factors to improve academic performance of school age children. Moreover, interventions to improve nutrition for mothers and children may be an important contributor to academic success and national economic growth in Ethiopia. Further study with strong design and large sample size is needed.

Exploring spatial variations and factors associated with childhood stunting in Ethiopia: spatial and multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND

Stunting reflects a failure to receive adequate nutrition over a long period of time. Stunting is associated with adverse functional consequences including poor cognition, low educational performance, low adult wages, and poor reproductive outcomes. The objective of the study was to investigate spatial variations and factors associated with childhood stunting in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study is a secondary data analysis of the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A total of 9893 children aged 0-59 months were included in the analysis. The Getis-Ord spatial statistical tool was used to identify high and low hotspots areas of stunting. A multilevel multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with stunting.

RESULTS

Statistically significant hotspots of stunting were found in northern parts of the country whereas low hotspots where there was less stunting than expected were found in the central, eastern, and western parts of the country. In the final model of multilevel logistic regression analysis, individual and community level factors accounted for 36.6 % of childhood stunting. Short birth interval [AOR = 1.68; 95%CI: (1.46-1.93)], being male [AOR = 1.20; 95%CI: (1.08-1.33)], and being from a male-headed household [AOR = 1.18; 95 % CI: (1.01-1.38)] were the factors that increased the odds of stunting at the individual level. Children in the age group between 24-35 months were more likely to be stunted than children whose age was less than one year [AOR = 6.61; 95 % CI: (5.17-8.44)]. The odds of stunting among children with severe anemia were higher than children with no anemia [AOR = 3.23; 95%CI: (2.35-4.43)]. Children with mothers who had completed higher education had lower odds of being stunted compared to children whose mothers had no formal education [AOR = 0.42; 95%CI: (0.18-0.94)]. The odds of being stunted were lower among children whose fathers completed higher education [AOR = 0.58; 95%CI: (0.38-0.89)] compared to children whose fathers had no formal education. Children whose mothers who had high a Body Mass Index (BMI) (≥25.0 kg/m(2)) were less likely to be stunted compared with children whose mothers had a normal BMI (18.5 kg/m(2)-24.9 kg/m(2))[AOR = 0.69; 95%CI: (0.52-0.90)]. Children from the poorest wealth quintile had higher odds of being stunted compared to children from the richest wealth quintiles [AOR = 1.43; 95 % CI: (1.08-1.88)]. Unavailability of improved latrine facilities and living in the northern parts of the country (Tigray, Affar, Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuzregions) were factors associated with higher odds of stunting from the community-level factors.

CONCLUSION

Stunting in children under five years old is not random in Ethiopia, with hotspots of higher stunting in the northern part of Ethiopia. Both individual and community-level factors were significant determinants of childhood stunting. The regions with high hotspots of child stunting should be targeted with additional resources, and the identified factors should be considered for nutritional interventions.

Factors affecting healthcare service utilization of mothers who had children with diarrhea in Ethiopia: evidence from a population based national survey

INTRODUCTION

Appropriate healthcare-seeking practices of mothers are important to prevent child death. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with mothers' healthcare services utilization for managing childhood diarrhea (CDD) in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was performed using data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Binary and multivariable logistic regressions were carried out to identify factors associated with mothers' healthcare services utilization for CDD.

RESULTS

About 35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.67-37.33%) of mothers visited healthcare institutions (HCIs) for CDD. Those mothers with children aged 6-11 months were 2.16 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.16, 95%CI: 1.32-3.53) compared to mothers who had children under 6 months of age. Urban mothers were 1.68 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD compared to rural mothers (AOR=1.68, 95%CI: 1.06-2.67). Those mothers who had information about oral rehydration salts (ORSs) were 2.66 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD compared to those mothers who had no information about ORS (AOR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.93-3.67). Mothers who attended antenatal care were 1.34 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD than mothers who never attended antenatal care (AOR=1.34, 95%CI: 1.04-1.74). Mothers who had postnatal checkups were 1.53 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD compared to mothers who had no postnatal checkups (AOR=1.53, 95%CI: 1.02-2.30). Those mothers who participated in community conversation were 1.67 times more likely to use HCIs for CDD than those mothers who had no information about community conversation (AOR=1.67, 95%CI: 1.15-2.39).

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare services utilization for CDD was found to be poor in Ethiopia. Urban residency, older age of the child, awareness of ORSs, antenatal care attendance, postnatal check and attending community conversation were factors associated with healthcare services utilization for CDD. Interventions to improve mothers' healthcare service utilization for CDD treatment should target rural households. Promotions of appropriate CDD treatment during ANC, postnatal checkup and community conversation are the recommended interventions.

Higher breastfeeding performance index is associated with lower risk of illness in infants under six months in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Breastfeeding performance index is an explanatory attempt to summarize key breastfeeding practices by summarizing the different dimensions of breastfeeding practices into a single summary variable. Breastfeeding performance index is used to assess optimal breastfeeding practices by constructing a single composite index that includes timely initiation of breastfeeding, prelacteal feeding, current breastfeeding status, bottle feeding, any liquid given(except medicine) in the last 24 h, formula given in the last 24 h, any solid food given in the last 24 h. This study aimed to assess optimal breastfeeding practices of 0-6 month infants using breastfeeding performance index (BPI) and its association with childhood illness in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis was carried out based on the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2011 data. The BPI was created using seven components by giving equal weight for all components during scoring. The data were described using descriptive statistics and analyzed using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The prevalence of low, medium, and high BPI was 18.41, 57.96 and 23.63 % respectively. The mean BPI score was 4.38 (SD 1.25; 95 % CI 4.31, 4.45). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that those infants who had low BPI score were 2.22 times (AOR = 2.22; 95 % CI 1.20, 4.11) and medium BPI category had 2.15 times at higher odds (AOR = 2.15; 95 % CI 1.23, 3.75) of developing diarrhea compared to infants in the highest BPI category. Being in the lower BPI category was significantly associated with higher odds of having fever (AOR = 1.73; 95 % CI 1.06, 2.80). Being in the medium index category was also associated with higher odds of having short and rapid breaths (AOR = 2.02; 95 % CI 1.01, 4.04).

CONCLUSION

More than 80 % of the infants did not receive optimal breastfeeding practices based on the Breastfeeding Performance Index. Lower BPI was statistically associated with diarrhea, fever and short and rapid breaths illness in the last 2 weeks. This study implicates the importance of optimal breastfeeding to reduce childhood illness.

Social determinants of HIV infection, hotspot areas and subpopulation groups in Ethiopia: evidence from the National Demographic and Health Survey in 2011

OBJECTIVE

This study identifies social determinants of HIV infection, hotspot areas and subpopulation groups in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

The study used data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Sample blood tests from the finger pricks collected on filter paper cards were labelled with a barcode unique to each respondent. Spatial scan statistics and geographic information system tools were used to map hotspot areas of HIV prevalence. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify social determinants of HIV infection.

POPULATION

A total of 30,625 adults (16,515 women and 14,110 men) were included from 11 administrative states of Ethiopia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Laboratory-confirmed HIV serostatus is the main outcome variable.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence reached 10-21% in the central, eastern and western geographic clusters of Ethiopia. Multivariable analysis showed that individuals who were in the middle, richer and richest wealth quintiles had increased odds of having HIV over those in the poorest quintile. Adults who had primary, secondary and higher educational levels had higher odds of being HIV positive than non-educated individuals. The odds of having HIV were higher among adults who had multiple lifetime sexual partners than those with a single partner. An increasing odds of HIV infection were observed among adults in the age groups of 25-29, 30-34, 35-39 and 40-45 years compared with adults in the age group of 45-49 years. Merchants had higher odds of being HIV positive than those who were not employed. The odds of having HIV were higher among urban residents and females than among rural residents and males, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found statistically significant HIV concentrations in administrative zones of central, eastern and western Ethiopia. Geospatial monitoring and targeting of prevention strategies for specific population groups is recommended.

Prevalence of antenatal depression and associated factors among pregnant women in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

Background

The World Health Organization identifies depressive disorders as the second leading cause of global disease burden by 2020. However, there is a paucity of studies which examined the associated factors of antenatal depression in low-income countries. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of antenatal depression and associated factors among pregnant women in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was employed among 393 pregnant women attending antenatal care service in Addis Ababa public health centers, Ethiopia from April 12–26, 2012. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to detect depressive symptoms. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used in the statistical analysis.

Results

Prevalence of antenatal depression was 24.94 % (95 % CI: 20.85–29.30 %). In the final multivariable model, those pregnant women who have previous history of depression were nearly three times at higher odds of having antenatal depression as compared to pregnant women who have no history of depression [AOR = 2.57(95 % CI: 1.48–4.48 )]. Those pregnant women having unplanned pregnancy were nearly three times at higher odds to develop depression as compared to pregnant women whose pregnancy was planned [AOR = 2.78(95 % CI: 1.59–4.85)]. The odd of developing antenatal depression was 89 % higher in those pregnant women who experienced lack of baby’s father support [AOR = 1.89(95 % CI: 1.06–3.36)]. Education level, community’s support, and partner’s feeling on current pregnancy were not significantly associated factors with antenatal depression in the final multivariable model.

Conclusion

Although clinical confirmation for antenatal depression is not conducted, one quarter of the pregnant women attending antenatal care were depressed in Addis Ababa based on EPDS. Unplanned pregnancy, experiencing lack of baby’s father support and previous history of depression were factors independently associated with antenatal depression. Promotion of family planning and integration of mental health service with existing maternal health care as well as strengthening the referral system among public health centers were the recalled interventions to prevent antenatal depression in Addis Ababa Public Health Centers.

Factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices in Ethiopia: evidence from demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

According to the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for water supply and Sanitation definition, safe child feces disposal practices include: children defecation into a latrine, disposal of child stools in a latrine or burial. Inappropriate disposal of human feces including unsafe child feces disposal facilitates the transmission of pathogens. However, the factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices have not been yet well explored in Ethiopia. This study aimed to identify factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2011. The practice of child's feces disposal was categorized into 'safe' and 'unsafe' based on the WHO/ UNICEF JMP for water supply & Sanitation definition. Binary and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to identify factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices.

RESULT

The prevalence of safe child feces disposal was 33.68 % (95 % CI: 32.82-34.55). In the final multivariable logistic regression model, the practice of safe disposal of child feces was significantly associated with urban residency (AOR = 1.25, 95 % CI: 1.01-1.55) and having access to an improved latrine (AOR = 1.92, 95 % CI: 1.56-2.36). Households found in the poorer, middle, richer and richest wealth quintile had (AOR = 2.22, 95 % CI: 1.70-2.89), (AOR = 2.94, 95 % CI: 2.27-3.81), (AOR = 4.20, 95 % CI: 3.42-5.72) and (AOR = 8.06, 95 % CI: 5.91-10.99) times higher odds to practice safe child feces disposal respectively as compared households from poorest wealth quintile. Mothers/caregivers with primary, secondary and higher educational status had (AOR = 1.29, 95 % CI: 1.10-1.50), (AOR = 1. 64, 95 % CI: 1.12-2.41) and (AOR = 2.16, 95 % CI: 1.25-3.72) times higher odds to practice safe child feces disposal respectively than those mothers who had no education. Those mothers/caregivers whose child was 48-59 months old had (AOR = 2.21, 95 % CI: 1.82-2.68) times higher odds to practice safe child feces disposal as compared to mothers/caregivers who had a child with age less than 12 months old. The odds of safe child feces disposal among households who had one two and three under five years old children were (AOR = 3.11, 95 % CI: 1.87-5.19),(AOR = 2.55, 95 % CI: 1.53-4.24) and (AOR = 1.92, 95 % CI: 1.13-3.24) times higher respectively than households with four and more children of under five years old.

CONCLUSION

Only one third of the mothers practiced safe child feces disposal in Ethiopia. Being an urban resident, having a higher wealth quintile, high levels of maternal education, older child age, having a lower number of under five years old children, and the presence of an improved latrine were factors associated with safe child feces disposal practices. Therefore interventions designed to improve safe child feces disposal practices should consider those factors identified. Further research is also needed to design intervention that will aim to improve safe child feces disposal.

Factors Associated with Colostrum Avoidance Among Mothers of Children Aged less than 24 Months in Raya Kobo district, North-eastern Ethiopia: Community-based Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

UNICEF and WHO recommend colostrum as newborns' perfect food that should be initiated within the first hour after birth.

OBJECTIVE

To assess colostrum avoidance practices and associated factors among mothers of children aged <24 months in Raya Kobo district, North-eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A quantitative community-based cross-sectional study supplemented by qualitative method was used. Descriptive statistics, binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used in the statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Colostrum avoidance was practiced by 13.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.99-16.33) of mothers having children aged <24 months. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, giving birth at home, mother-heading households, lack of awareness on the advantages of colostrum and late initiation of breastfeeding remained statistically significant factors associated with colostrum avoidance practices.

CONCLUSION

Promoting institutional delivery, timely initiation of breastfeeding and creating awareness on the advantages of colostrum feeding are recommended interventions to reduce colostrum avoidance.

Factors associated with nutritional status of infants and young children in Somali Region, Ethiopia: a cross- sectional study

Background

Inadequate nutrition during the first two years of life may lead to childhood morbidity and mortality, as well as inadequate brain development. Infants are at increased risk of malnutrition by six months, when breast milk alone is no longer sufficient to meet their nutritional requirements. However the factors associated with nutritional status of infants after 6 months of age have received little attention in pastoralist communities of Ethiopia. Therefore this study aimed to identify the factors associated with nutritional status of infants and young children (6–23 months) in Filtu town, Somali Region, Ethiopia.

Methods

A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted. Simple random sampling was employed to select 214 infants for the study. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions models were used in the statistical analysis. The strength of association was measured by odds ratios with 95 % confidence intervals. Both the crude (COR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) are reported.

Results

The prevalence of wasting, stunting and underweight among infants and young children were 17.5 % (95 % CI: 12.91-23.22), 22.9 % (95 % CI: 17.6-28.9) and 19.5 % (95 % CI: 14.58-25.3) respectively. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that breastfeeding was independently associated with reduced odds of wasting (AOR = 0.38(95 % CI: 0.14-0.99)). Diarrhea in the past 15 days (AOR = 2.13 (95 % CI: 1.55-4.69)) was also associated with increased odds for wasting. The independent predictors of reduced odds for stunting were dietary diversity score ≥4 (AOR = 0.45(95 % CI: 0.21-0.95)) and introduction of complementary feeding at 6 months (AOR = 0.25 (95 % CI: 0.09-0.66)). Bottle feeding was associated with increased odds of stunting (AOR = 3.83 (95 % CI: 1.69-8.67)). Breastfeeding was associated with reduced odds of underweight (AOR = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.1-0.59)), while diarrheal disease in the past 15 days was associated with increased odds of underweight (AOR = 3.54 (95 % CI: 1.17-7.72)).

Conclusion

Under nutrition is a public health problem among infants and young children in Filtu town, Somali region Ethiopia. Breastfeeding was associated with lower odds of wasting and underweight while diarrheal disease was associated with higher odds of wasting and underweight. Low dietary diversity scores, inappropriate age of complementary feeding initiation and bottle feeding were identified to be significant predictors of stunting. Those factors should be considered for any intervention aimed to reduce under nutrition among infants and young children in Filitu town, Somali region, Ethiopia.

Socio-medical determinants of timely breastfeeding initiation in Ethiopia: Evidence from the 2011 nation wide Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Early initiation of breastfeeding is a simple and cost effective intervention to advance the health of mothers and newborns. The World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) recommend that breastfeeding should be initiated within one hour of birth. The aim of this study is to identify factors associated with timely initiation of breastfeeding among mothers in Ethiopia within one hour of birth.

METHODS

This study used data from the 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 11,654 households were included in the analysis from 11 administrative states of Ethiopia. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models with adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were used to quantify predictors of early breastfeeding initiation.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of timely breastfeeding initiation was 52 % (95 % CI: 51.09, 52.91). The prevalence was higher in urban settings (61.4 %; 95 % CI: 58.85, 63.85) than in rural areas (52.3 %; 95 % CI: 51.33, 53.28). The highest prevalence was found in Addis Ababa 71.5 % (95 % CI: 64.88, 77.12) while the lowest prevalence was 41.7 % (95 % CI: 36.62, 47.00) in Somali regional state. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that rural mothers had 39 % lower odds of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 0.61; 95 % CI: 0.50, 0.76) compared to urban mothers. Mothers who had secondary education or higher had 60 % higher odds of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 1.6; 95 % CI: 1.02, 2.44) than never educated mothers. Mothers who had caesarian deliveries had 61 % lower odds of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 0.39; 95 % CI: 0.22, 0.71) compared to vaginal deliveries. Working mothers were 23 % less likely to timely initiate breastfeeding (AOR 0.77; 95 % CI: 0.69, 0.85) compared to housewives. Female infants had a 20 % higher chance of timely breastfeeding initiation (AOR 1.2; 95 % CI: 1.05, 1.30) compared to male infants.

CONCLUSION

Early initiation of breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was not optimal  in Ethiopia. Factors such as place of residence, educational level, occupation, gender of the newborn and type of delivery should be considered in any intervention program in order to enhance timely breastfeeding initiation.

Adherence to WHO breastfeeding guidelines among HIV positive mothers in Southern Ethiopia: implication for intervention

Background

Breastfeeding reduces major causes of infant mortality and morbidity. On the other hand, it is a major mode of vertical HIV transmission. In developing countries like Ethiopia, HIV positive mothers are advised to continue breastfeeding up to 12 months. But there is scarce literature regarding the mothers’ adherence to continued breastfeeding recommendations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess HIV positive mothers’ adherence to the infant feeding recommendations of the new World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for HIV-exposed infants aged ≥6 months.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in health institutions with antiretroviral therapy and prevention of mother to child transmission facilities in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Health institutions were considered as clusters and cluster sampling technique was employed. A total of 184 HIV positive mothers with their infants registered at respective health institutions were recruited and assessed for their infant breastfeeding practices. Descriptive statistics (frequency, mean, median, and standard deviation) were computed to describe the breastfeeding practices of HIV positive mothers.

Result

Almost all (181 [98.4%]) of the HIV-exposed infants were “ever breastfed”. Among those mothers who had ever breastfed, 158 (87.3%) initiated breastfeeding within an hour of delivery and 157 (85.8%) had fed their babies colostrum while 31 (16.8%) gave prelacteal food to their infants. The prevalence of continued breastfeeding at 1 year was (54.5%) (46.9% for urban mothers and 75% for rural mothers). Seventy-one percent (70.9%) of HIV positive mothers practiced “on demand” breastfeeding. Twenty nine percent of infants aged 6–11 months and 47.8% of infants aged ≥12 months were no longer breastfed. The mean (± standard deviation) duration of breastfeeding was 7.8 (±3.1) months (95% confidence interval: 6.9–8.7).

Conclusion

The 2010 WHO guidelines and recommendations on breastfeeding duration for HIV positive mothers was not adhered to after 6 months of age. Promotion and counseling of optimal breastfeeding practice for HIV positive mothers based on the updated WHO guideline is an appropriate intervention. However, further research is recommended to evaluate the acceptance of the new 2010 WHO guideline by the health professionals and HIV positive mothers.

Differentials in vitamin A supplementation among preschool-aged children in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Vitamin A supplementation is one of the best proven, safest and most cost-effective interventions in public health. However, childhood vitamin A supplementation has not reached adequate levels of coverage in developing countries. This study aimed to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation in Ethiopia.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study with stratified, two-stage cluster design.

METHODS

Analysis of data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation. Data for 9276 children aged 6-59 months were included in the analysis. Binary and multivariable logistic regression models were used.

RESULTS

Over half [54.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 53.48-55.51%] of children aged 6-59 months had received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months. Regional differences were found, ranging from 28.1% in Somali to 83.2% in Tigray (P < 0.001). Children in the poorest wealth index category [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.47-0.77], children with mothers who did not attend any antenatal care (ANC) appointments (AOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48-0.67), infants aged 6-11 months (AOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.42-0.65), children with mothers who did not have a postnatal medical check-up (AOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.86) and children with mothers who had not worked in the last year (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.97) were less likely to have received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months.

CONCLUSION

Coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation was not optimum in Ethiopia and regional differences were found. Lack of a maternal postnatal medical check-up, lack of ANC attendance, poorest wealth index, mother who had not worked in the last year and infant in youngest age group were associated with lower odds of receiving vitamin A supplementation over the last six months. Provision and promotion of ANC and postnatal care, and strengthening routine immunization activity, especially among infants in the youngest age group, are recommended to increase coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation.

Differentials in vitamin A supplementation among preschool-aged children in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Vitamin A supplementation is one of the best proven, safest and most cost-effective interventions in public health. However, childhood vitamin A supplementation has not reached adequate levels of coverage in developing countries. This study aimed to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation in Ethiopia.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study with stratified, two-stage cluster design.

METHODS

Analysis of data from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used to identify factors associated with childhood vitamin A supplementation. Data for 9276 children aged 6-59 months were included in the analysis. Binary and multivariable logistic regression models were used.

RESULTS

Over half [54.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 53.48-55.51%] of children aged 6-59 months had received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months. Regional differences were found, ranging from 28.1% in Somali to 83.2% in Tigray (P < 0.001). Children in the poorest wealth index category [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.47-0.77], children with mothers who did not attend any antenatal care (ANC) appointments (AOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48-0.67), infants aged 6-11 months (AOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.42-0.65), children with mothers who did not have a postnatal medical check-up (AOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.86) and children with mothers who had not worked in the last year (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.97) were less likely to have received vitamin A supplementation in the last six months.

CONCLUSION

Coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation was not optimum in Ethiopia and regional differences were found. Lack of a maternal postnatal medical check-up, lack of ANC attendance, poorest wealth index, mother who had not worked in the last year and infant in youngest age group were associated with lower odds of receiving vitamin A supplementation over the last six months. Provision and promotion of ANC and postnatal care, and strengthening routine immunization activity, especially among infants in the youngest age group, are recommended to increase coverage of childhood vitamin A supplementation.

Complementary feeding practices and associated factors among HIV positive mothers in Southern Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to assess complementary feeding practices and associated factors among HIV exposed infants in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. An institutional based cross-sectional study with cluster random sampling technique was employed and all HIV exposed infants aged 6-17 months found in randomly selected health institutions in Sidama zone, Southern Ethiopia were included. A 24-hour dietary recall and 7-day quasi-food group frequency was used to assess complementary feeding practices. The prevalence of timely initiation of complementary feeding (6-8 months) was 42% [95% CI: (30-54%)]. Of all the HIV exposed infants aged 6-17 months, 40.7% had practiced bottle-feeding. About 65.6% and 53.3% of HIV exposed infants did not receive the recommended number of food groups and frequency of complementary feeding in the last 24 hours respectively. Pulse (plant protein) was consumed by only 22.5% of the infants while only 9.9% of the infants consumed animal source food in the last 24 hours. Presence of infant food prohibition (β = -0.342, P = 0.001) and age of the infant (β = 0.311, P = 0.001) were found to be an independent predictors of dietary diversity. Presence of infant food prohibition (β = -0.181, P = 0.02) and age of infant (β = 0.388, P < 0.001) were also the predictors of 24 hour meal frequency. Having lower educational status [AOR = (0.21, 95% CI (0.062-0.71)] was an independent negative predictor of bottle-feeding practice. Many of the complementary feeding practices like meal frequency; dietary diversity and bottle-feeding were sub-optimal. Nutrition education should be designed for improving complementary feeding practices of HIV exposed infants in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Mothers with higher educational status should be also targeted for nutrition education especially on bottle feeding practice.

Anaemia prevalence and associated factors among lactating mothers in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2005 and 2011 demographic and health surveys

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with anaemia in lactating mothers in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional secondary analysis of data pooled from two rounds of the 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used. A multivariate logistic regression model was applied to determine the factors associated with anaemia.

POPULATION

A total of 7332 lactating mothers (2285 from EDHS 2005 and 5047 from EDHS 2011) were included from 11 administrative states of Ethiopia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Lactating mothers considered anaemic if haemoglobin level <12 g/dL.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of anaemia among lactating mothers was 22.1% (95% CI 21.13% to 23.03%). The highest prevalence was 48.7% (95% CI 40.80% to 56.62%) found in the Somali region, followed by 43.8% (95% CI 31.83% to 56.87%) in the Afar region. The multivariate statistical model showed that having a husband who had attended primary education (adjusted OR (AOR) 0.79; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.91), working during the 12 months preceding the survey (AOR 0.71; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.80), having a normal maternal body mass index (18.5-24.99 kg/m(2)) (AOR 0.78; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89), being in the middle wealth quintile (AOR 0.83; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.98) or rich wealth quintile (AOR 0.83; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.98), having ever used family planning (AOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.80), having attended antenatal care (ANC) for the indexed pregnancy four times or more (AOR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91), having experienced time variation between the two surveys (AOR 0.73; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.85), and breastfeeding for 2 years (AOR 0.76; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) were factors associated with lower odds of having anaemia in lactating mothers.

CONCLUSIONS

Anaemia is highly prevalent among lactating mothers, particularly in the pastoralist communities of Somali and Afar. Promoting partner education, improving maternal nutritional status, and creating behavioural change to use family planning and ANC services at health facilities are recommended interventions to reduce the prevalence of anaemia among lactating mothers in Ethiopia.

Prelacteal feeding practices and associated factors among mothers of children aged less than 24 months in Raya Kobo district, North Eastern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

Background

The harmful infant feeding practices of prelacteal feeding is widely practiced in Ethiopia. Hence, it is vital to appreciate the cultural basis and potential factors on infant feeding practices in different parts of Ethiopia. This study aimed to investigate prelacteal feeding practices and associated factors among mothers of children aged less than 24 months in Raya Kobo district, North Eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A quantitative community-based cross-sectional study supplemented by qualitative methods was employed. Sixty hundred thirty (630) mothers of children aged less than 24 months were selected by systematic random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis were employed to identify the factors associated with prelacteal feeding practices. Variables with a p-value < 0.05 were identified as statistically significant factors. Qualitative data was collected by focus group discussion and in-depth interview and analyzed using thematic frameworks.

Results

The prevalence of prelacteal feeding was 38.8% (95% CI: 35.00%, 43.00%). Home delivery was a risk factor for practicing prelacteal feeding. Those mothers who gave birth at home were seven times more likely to practice prelacteal feeding as compared to mothers who delivered at health institutions (Adjusted Odd Ratio (AOR):7.10; 95% CI: 3.91, 12.98). Mothers who were not aware of the risks associated with prelacteal feeding were nearly four times more likely to practice prelacteal feeding as compared to knowledgeable mothers (AOR: 3.70; 95% CI: 2.44, 5.53). Late initiation of breastfeeding (after one hour of delivery) was also associated with prelacteal feeding practice (AOR: 2.70; 95% CI: 1.78, 3.99). The major reasons stated for providing prelacteal feeding were to prevent “evil eye” and illness and to “clean infant’s stomach”.

Conclusion

Prelacteal feeding was commonly practiced in Raya Kobo district. Home delivery, delayed commencement of breastfeeding after birth and lack of awareness about the risks associated with prelacteal feeding were predictors of prelacteal feeding. Therefore, strengthening infant feeding counseling about the risks associated with prelacteal feeding, promoting institutional delivery and timely initiation of breastfeeding are important measures for preventing prelacteal feeding in Raya Kobo district.

Stability of infant and child feeding index over time and its association with nutritional status of HIV exposed infants in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Even though many studies showed that infant and child feeding index has a statistically significant association with nutritional status, there is paucity of studies on stability of infant and child feeding index over time and its association with nutritional status of HIV exposed infants.

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the stability of infant and child feeding index over time that is developed based on the current recommendations and its association with nutritional status of HIV exposed infants in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia.

STUDY DESIGN

A panel study design was conducted in health institutions in Sidama Zone from February to July, 2012. Three repeated measurements of data were collected from each HIV exposed infant aged 6-17 months over the 6 month follow-up period approximately per 2 month interval.

RESULTS

The cross-sectional index was found stable overtime with the repeatability coefficient of 0.802 which differed significantly from zero (95% CI: 0.75-0.85). A longitudinal infant and child feeding index (L-ICFI) has a statistically significant association with length for age Z scores (LAZ) and weight for age Z scores (WAZ) at visit three (β=0.262, p=0.007; β=0.226, p=0.017), respectively. But the longitudinal index has no statistically significant association with WLZ score (p=0.552). There was no significant difference in change of LAZ and WAZ over time between L-ICFI tertiles for both female and male HIV exposed infants.

CONCLUSION

The index is stable overtime at individual level even though one third of the index components were not stable. The L-CFI was associated with LAZ and WAZ but not with WLZ. However there was no significant difference in change of HAZ and WAZ over time between L-ICFI tertiles for both female and male HIV exposed infants.

Predictors of breastfeeding cessation among HIV infected mothers in Southern Ethiopia: a survival analysis

Background

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) through breastfeeding remains the most significant route infection among children. Although the current guideline is recommending continued breastfeeding for HIV exposed infants, significant proportion of infants have been subjected to early weaning to prevent HIV transmission. However the predictors of breastfeeding cessation among HIV positive mothers were not documented in Ethiopia. Therefore the objective of this study was to determine the predictors of breastfeeding cessation among HIV-infected women in Southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A facility based cross sectional study was conducted in Southern Ethiopia. The samples were selected by cluster sampling technique. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to describe the survival time of breastfeeding and a step-wise multivariable Cox-proportional hazards regression model were used to identify the predictors of breastfeeding cessation. Both crude and adjusted hazard ratio were determined and p<0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

Result

The mean duration of breastfeeding among HIV positive mothers was 13.79 [95% CI: (12.97–14.59)] months. The Kaplan-Meier estimate showed that proportions of women who were breastfeeding at 6, 9, 12 and 17 months were 89.3%, 75.3%, 66% and 17%, respectively. Those mothers having a monthly income of ≤500 ETB [AHR = 0.16, 95% CI :(0.03–0.76)], having a family size of three and below [AHR = 0.12, 95%CI: (0.02–0.68), four and above [AHR = 0.07, 95%CI: (0.01–0.35)] and bottle feeding [AHR = 3.95, 95%CI: (1.64–9.51)] were also independent factors associated with breastfeeding cessation.

Conclusion

Above one third of HIV positive mothers stopped breastfeeding before 12 months. Monthly income, bottle feeding and family size were the independent predictors of breastfeeding cessations. Strengthening the current counseling and promotion modality on avoidance of bottle feeding and continued breastfeeding is recommended for improved HIV free survival.

Infant feeding practices among HIV exposed infants using summary index in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia: a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

Combining various aspects of child feeding into an age-specific summary index provides a first answer to the question of how best to deal with recommended feeding practices in the context of HIV pandemic. The objective of this study is to assess feeding practices of HIV exposed infants using summary index and its association with nutritional status in Southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

Facility based cross-sectional study design with cluster random sampling technique was conducted in Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between summary index (infant and child feeding index) (CS-ICFI) and nutritional status.

RESULTS

The mean (±standard deviation (SD)) cross-sectional infant and child feeding index (CS-ICFI) score of infants was 9.09 (±2.59), [95% CI: 8.69-9.49]). Thirty seven percent (36.6%) of HIV exposed infants fell in the high CS-ICFI category while 31.4% of them were found in poor feeding index tertile. About forty two percent (41.6%) of urban infants were found in the high index tertile but only 24% of the rural infants were found in high index tertile. Forty six percent (46%) of the rural infants were found in low (poor) feeding index category. The CS-ICFI has a statistically significant association with weight for age z score (WAZ) (ß = 0.168, p = 0.027) and length for age z score (LAZ) (ß = 0.183 p = 0.036). However CS-ICFI was not significantly associated with weight for height z score (WLZ) (p = 0.386).

CONCLUSION

Majority of HIV exposed infants had no optimum complementary feeding practices according to cross-sectional infant and child feeding index. CS-ICFI was statistically associated especially with chronic indicators of nutritional status (LAZ and WAZ). More rural infants were found in poor index tertile than urban infants. This may suggest that rural infants need more attention than urban infants while designing and implementing complementary feeding interventions.

A material isolated from human hands that attracts female mosquitoes

The residue left on glass surfaces by human hands was found to be attractive to femaleAedes aegypti (L.) andAnopheles quadrimaculatus Say mosquitoes. The material lost half of its activity in 1 hr. A solvent wash technique was developed to recover and concentrate the residuum from handled glass beads. The residuum could be recovered effectively with absolute ethanol and less effectively with several other solvents. More mosquitoes were attracted to heated than to unheated residuum, an indication of its volatility. Also, attraction of the residuum decreased with decreasing concentration or dose. Concentrated residuum collections, stored under refrigeration and tested for longevity, showed no appreciable loss of attractiveness up to 60 days of storage.