Young drivers' early access to their own car and crash risk into early adulthood: Findings from the DRIVE study

INTRODUCTION

Car ownership at early licensure for young drivers has been identified as a crash risk factor, but for how long this risk persists is unknown. This study examined crash hazard rates between young drivers with their own vehicle and those who shared a family vehicle at early licensure over 13 years.

METHODS

The DRIVE study, a 2003/04 survey of 20,806 young novice drivers in New South Wales, Australia was used to link to police crash, hospital and death records up to 2016. The first police-reported crash and crash resulting in hospitalisation/death was modelled via flexible parametric survival analysis by type of vehicle access at baseline (own vs. shared family vehicle).

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, drivers with their own vehicle at early licensure had an almost 30 % increased hazard rate for any crash after one year (95 % CI:1.16-1.42) compared with those who only had access to a family car and this attenuated but remained significantly higher until year 7 (HR: 1.1, 95 % CI: >1.00-1.20). For crashes resulting in hospitalisation or death, an almost 15-times higher hazard (95 % CI: 1.40-158.17) was observed at the start of follow up, remaining 50 % to year 3 (95 % CI:1.01-2.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Parents and young drivers should be aware of the increased risks involved in car ownership at early licensure. Development of poorer driving habits has been associated with less parental monitoring at this time. Graduated Driving Licensing educators, researchers and stakeholders should seek to address this and to identify improved safety management options.

Interpersonal Violence and Gender Inequality in Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data From 1990 to 2019

PURPOSE

Interpersonal violence is a leading cause of adolescent deaths and disability. This study investigates sex differences in burden of interpersonal violence for adolescents and explores associations with gender inequality.

METHOD

Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we report numbers, proportions, rates of interpersonal violence deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for all ages, and rate of change (from 1990 to 2019) in adolescents aged 10-24 years disaggregated by sex and geography. We explored associations with gender inequality using gender inequality index.

RESULTS

One in four (24.8%) all-age interpersonal violence deaths are in adolescents. In 2019, the rate of deaths in adolescent males was almost six times higher than females (9.3 vs. 1.6 per 100,000); and since 1990, the rate of decline in DALYs for females was double than that for males (-28.9% vs. -12.7%). By contrast, the burden of sexual violence is disproportionately borne by adolescent females, with over double the rate than males (DALYs: 42.8 vs. 17.5 per 100,000). In countries with greater gender inequality, the male-to-female ratio (deaths and DALYs) was increased among older adolescents, pointing to benefits for males in more gender equal settings.

DISCUSSION

Social identities, relationships, and attitudes to violence are established in adolescence, which is an inflection point marking the emergence of disproportionate burdens of interpersonal violence. Our findings affirm that global agendas must be expanded to address interrelated factors driving multiple forms of interpersonal violence experienced by adolescents and reverberating to the next generation.

Characterising the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patient journey after a serious road traffic injury and barriers to access to compensation: a protocol

INTRODUCTION

Road safety has been a long-enduring policy concern in Australia, with significant financial burden of road trauma and evident socioeconomic disparities. Transport injuries disproportionately impact individuals in remote areas, those in lower socioeconomic situations, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. There is a lack of insight into transport injuries in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, absence of Indigenous perspective in published research and limited utilisation of linked data assets to address the inequity. Aim 1 is to determine the breadth, cost and causal factors of serious injury from road traffic crashes in South Australia (SA) and New South Wales (NSW) with a focus on injury prevention. Aim 2 is to identify enablers and barriers to compensation schemes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients in SA and NSW.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study will be guided by an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Governance Group, applying Knowledge Interface Methodology and Indigenous research principles to ensure Indigenous Data Sovereignty and incorporation of informed perspectives. A mixed-method approach will be undertaken to explore study aims including using big data assets and mapping patient journey.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study will provide valuable insights for the development of focused injury prevention strategies and policies tailored to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. By addressing the specific needs and challenges faced by these communities, the study aims to enhance road safety outcomes and promote equitable access to healthcare and compensation for affected individuals and their families.

Impact of growth, gonadal hormones, adiposity and the sodium-to-potassium ratio on longitudinal adolescent measures of blood pressure at puberty

Blood pressure (BP) rises rapidly at puberty. While this is partly due to normal development, factors like excess adiposity and a high intake of dietary sodium relative to potassium may contribute to a true increase in hypertension risk. This study aimed to assess the relative impact of growth, gonadal hormones, adiposity and the sodium-to-potassium ratio (Na:K) on longitudinal BP measures at puberty. This study analysed data from a three-year longitudinal cohort study of pubertal adolescents. Anthropometry, body composition (bio-electrical impedance), serum testosterone and oestradiol (mass spectrometry) were measured annually. Na:K was measured from three-monthly urine samples. These variables were used to predict annual BP measures using mixed modelling and ordinal regression. Data from 325 adolescents (11.7 ± 1.0 y; 55% male) were analysed, showing typical growth patterns at puberty. Systolic BP increased over time in both sexes (p < 0.01), with boys exhibiting a significantly steeper rise compared to girls. Adiposity variables (BMI z-score, percent body fat, fat mass, waist-to-height ratio) strongly and consistently predicted systolic and diastolic BP in both sexes (all p < 0.05). Systolic BP was also significantly and positively related to height (p < 0.05). No associations with BP were identified in either sex for gonadal hormones or Na:K. Similar results were obtained when BP was classified into hypertension categories. Relative to other developmental and diet-related variables tested, adiposity was found to be the strongest most consistent predictor of BP in pubertal adolescents. Findings highlight the importance of dedicated youth obesity management interventions and policy measures for reducing long-term hypertension and cardiovascular disease risks.Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12617000964314.

Do we understand each other when we develop and implement hip fracture models of care? A systematic review with narrative synthesis

BACKGROUND

A hip fracture in an older person is a devastating injury. It impacts functional mobility, independence and survival. Models of care may provide a means for delivering integrated hip fracture care in less well-resourced settings. The aim of this review was to determine the elements of hip fracture models of care to inform the development of an adaptable model of care for low and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Multiple databases were searched for papers reporting a hip fracture model of care for any part of the patient pathway from injury to rehabilitation. Results were limited to publications from 2000. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened based on eligibility criteria. Papers were evaluated with an equity lens against eight conceptual criteria adapted from an existing description of a model of care.

RESULTS

82 papers were included, half of which were published since 2015. Only two papers were from middle-income countries and only two papers were evaluated as reporting all conceptual criteria from the existing description. The most identified criterion was an evidence-informed intervention and the least identified was the inclusion of patient stakeholders.

CONCLUSION

Interventions described as models of care for hip fracture are unlikely to include previously described conceptual criteria. They are most likely to be orthogeriatric approaches to service delivery, which is a barrier to their implementation in resource-limited settings. In LMICs, the provision of orthogeriatric competencies by other team members is an area for further investigation.

Self-harm in adolescence and risk of crash: a 13-year cohort study of novice drivers in New South Wales, Australia

INTRODUCTION

Self-harm and suicide are leading causes of morbidity and death for young people, worldwide. Previous research has identified self-harm is a risk factor for vehicle crashes, however, there is a lack of long-term crash data post licensing that investigates this relationship. We aimed to determine whether adolescent self-harm persists as crash risk factor in adulthood.

METHODS

We followed 20 806 newly licensed adolescent and young adult drivers in the DRIVE prospective cohort for 13 years to examine whether self-harm was a risk factor for vehicle crashes. The association between self-harm and crash was analysed using cumulative incidence curves investigating time to first crash and quantified using negative binominal regression models adjusted for driver demographics and conventional crash risk factors.

RESULTS

Adolescents who reported self-harm at baseline were at increased risk of crashes 13 years later than those reporting no self-harm (relative risk (RR) 1.29: 95% CI 1.14 to 1.47). This risk remained after controlling for driver experience, demographic characteristics and known risk factors for crashes, including alcohol use and risk taking behaviour (RR 1.23: 95% CI 1.08 to 1.39). Sensation seeking had an additive effect on the association between self-harm and single-vehicle crashes (relative excess risk due to interaction 0.87: 95% CI 0.07 to 1.67), but not for other types of crashes.

DISCUSSION

Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that self-harm during adolescence predicts a range of poorer health outcomes, including motor vehicle crash risks that warrant further investigation and consideration in road safety interventions. Complex interventions addressing self-harm in adolescence, as well as road safety and substance use, are critical for preventing health harming behaviours across the life course.

Acculturation and risk of traffic crashes in young Asian-born Australian drivers

The study examines changes over time in crash risk differences between young Australian drivers born in Asia and those born in Australia.Data from the 2003 baseline survey of the DRIVE cohort of 20 806 young drivers aged 17-24 years were linked to police, hospital and death data up until 2016. The association between country of birth and crash was investigated using flexible parametric survival models adjusted for confounders.Six months after baseline, the crash risk in Asian-born drivers was less than half that of their Australian-born counterparts (mean HR, MHR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.57), only to increase steadily over time to resemble that of Australian-born drivers 13 years later (MHR 0.94; 95% CI 0.66 to 1.36).This is likely to be associated with acculturation and the adoption by young Asian-born Australian drivers of driving behaviour patterns akin to those born locally. This needs to be considered in future road safety campaigns.

Patient journey mapping to investigate quality and cultural safety in burn care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and families - development, application and implications

BACKGROUND

Quality and safety in Australian healthcare is inequitably distributed, highlighted by gaps in the provision of quality care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children. Burns have potential for long-term adverse outcomes, and quality care, including culturally safe care, is critical to recovery. This study aimed to develop and apply an Aboriginal Patient Journey Mapping (APJM) tool to investigate the quality of healthcare systems for burn care with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children.

STUDY DESIGN

Interface research methodology, using biomedical and cultural evidence, informed the modification of an existing APJM tool. The tool was then applied to the journey of one family accessing a paediatric tertiary burn care site. Data were collected through yarning with the family, case note review and clinician interviews. Data were analysed using Emden's core story and thematic analysis methods. Reflexivity informed consideration of the implications of the APJM tool, including its effectiveness and efficiency in eliciting information about quality and cultural safety.

RESULTS

Through application of a modified APJM tool, gaps in quality care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children and families were identified at the individual, service and system levels. Engagement in innovative methodology incorporating more than biomedical standards of care, uncovered critical information about the experiences of culturally safe care in complex patient journeys.

CONCLUSION

Based on our application of the tool, APJM can identify and evaluate specific aspects of culturally safe care as experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and be used for quality improvement.

Driving offences and risk of subsequent crash in novice drivers: the DRIVE cohort study 12-year follow-up

Background

Penalties are a key component to improve road user safety, but previous studies suggested that they might not be successful in reducing crashing in offending drivers. However, these studies were not able to consider important crash risk factors in the analysis that might confound the results. Using data from a large prospective cohort study of young drivers in New South Wales, Australia, we explored if novice drivers with driving offences have a higher rates of car crash and if these differences are explained by established crash risk factors.

Methods

We used data from a 2003/2004 Australian survey of young drivers, linked to police reported offence and crash data, hospital data and deaths data up to 2016. We used Poisson regression models adjusted for confounders to estimate the association between driving offences during 2003–2006 with car crash during 2007–2016.

Results

The study cohort comprised 20 781 young drivers of whom 7860 drivers (37.8%) had at least one driving offence and 2487 (12.0%) were involved in at least one crash. After adjusting for confounders in the regression model, drivers with three or more driving offences had 2.25 (95% CI 1.98 to 2.57), 2.87 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.17) and 3.28 (95% CI 2.28 to 4.72) times higher rates of any crash, crashes that resulted in hospital admission or death and single vehicle crashes compared with drivers with no driving offences.

Conclusion

Measures that successfully mitigate the underlying risk factors for both, crashes and offences, have the potential to improve road safety.

Health, social and economic implications of adolescent risk behaviours/states: protocol for Raine Study Gen2 cohort data linkage study

BACKGROUND

Risk-taking behaviours are a major contributor to youth morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability to these negative outcomes is constructed from individual behaviour including risk-taking, and from social context, ecological determinants, early life experience, developmental capacity and mental health, contributing to a state of higher risk. However, although risk-taking is part of normal adolescent development, there is no systematic way to distinguish young people with a high probability of serious adverse outcomes, hindering the capacity to screen and intervene. This study aims to explore the association between risk behaviours/states in adolescence and negative health, social and economic outcomes through young adulthood.

METHODS

The Raine Study is a prospective cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1989-91, in Perth, Western Australia. The offspring cohort (N = 2,868) was followed up at regular intervals from 1 to 27 years of age. These data will be linked to State government health and welfare administrative data. We will empirically examine relationships across multiple domains of risk (for example, substance use, sexual behaviour, driving) with health and social outcomes (for instance, road-crash injury, educational underachievement). Microsimulation models will measure the impact of risk-taking on educational attainment and labour force outcomes.

DISCUSSION

Comprehensive preventive child health programmes and policy prioritise a healthy start to life. This is the first linkage study focusing on adolescence to adopt a multi-domain approach, and to integrate health economic modelling. This approach captures a more complete picture of health and social impacts of risk behaviour/​states in adolescence and young adulthood.

The effectiveness of a co-management care model on older hip fracture patients in China – A multicentre non-randomised controlled study

Background

Clinical guidelines recommend orthogeriatric care to improve older hip fracture patients’ outcomes, but few studies have been conducted in China. This study evaluated the effects of an orthogeriatric co-management care model in six Chinese hospitals.

Methods

This non-randomised controlled study was designed as an exploratory trial and was conducted in 3 urban and 3 suburban hospitals. Eligible patients were aged ≥ 65 years with X-ray confirmed hip fracture and admitted to hospital within 21 days of injury. All patients received three times follow-ups within one year (1-month, 4-month and 12-month post admission). Co-management care was implemented in 1 urban hospital, while usual care continued in 5 urban and suburban hospitals. Patient demographics, pre-, peri- and post-operative information, complications and mortality were collected at baseline and follow-ups. The primary outcome was proportion of patients receiving surgery within 48 hours from ward arrival. Secondary outcomes included osteoporosis assessment, in-hospital rehabilitation, length of hospital stay, in-hospital mortality and one-year cumulative mortality.

Findings

There were 2,071 eligible patients enrolled (1,110 intervention, 961 control). Compared to usual care, a significantly higher proportion of intervention patients received surgery within 48 hours (75% vs 27%, p<0.0001), osteoporosis assessment (99.9% vs 60.6%, p<0.0001), rehabilitation (99.1% vs 3.9%, p<0.0001) and shorter length of hospital stay (6.1 days vs 12.0 days, p<0.0001). The intervention group saw a significant lower in-hospital mortality rate than the control group (adjusted relative risk 0.021, 95% CI 0.001 to 0.45, P=0.01). One-year cumulative mortality was also significantly reduced in the intervention group (hazard ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.80, p=0.01).

Interpretation

Co-management care of older hip fracture patients resulted in better outcomes, including decreased time to surgery, improved clinical management, and reduced one-year mortality. A randomised controlled trial is needed to provide definitive evidence.

Funding

The study is supported by Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research (2018-1-2071).

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of bone fractures in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Bone fractures are a global public health issue; however, to date, no comprehensive study of their incidence and burden has been done. We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of fractures from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we compared numbers and age-standardised rates of global incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of fractures across the 21 GBD regions and 204 countries and territories, by age, sex, and year, from 1990 to 2019. We report estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, there were 178 million (95% UI 162-196) new fractures (an increase of 33·4% [30·1-37·0] since 1990), 455 million (428-484) prevalent cases of acute or long-term symptoms of a fracture (an increase of 70·1% [67·5-72·5] since 1990), and 25·8 million (17·8-35·8) YLDs (an increase of 65·3% [62·4-68·0] since 1990). The age-standardised rates of fractures in 2019 were 2296·2 incident cases (2091·1-2529·5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 9·6% [8·1-11·1] since 1990), 5614·3 prevalent cases (5286·1-5977·5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 6·7% [5·7-7·6] since 1990), and 319·0 YLDs (220·1-442·5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 8·4% [7·2-9·5] since 1990). Lower leg fractures of the patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle were the most common and burdensome fracture in 2019, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 419·9 cases (345·8-512·0) per 100 000 population and an age-standardised rate of YLDs of 190·4 (125·0-276·9) per 100 000 population. In 2019, age-specific rates of fracture incidence were highest in the oldest age groups, with, for instance, 15 381·5 incident cases (11 245·3-20 651·9) per 100 000 population in those aged 95 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

The global age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for fractures decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute counts increased substantially. Older people have a particularly high risk of fractures, and more widespread injury-prevention efforts and access to screening and treatment of osteoporosis for older individuals should help to reduce the overall burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementing a crèche-based community drowning programme in rural Bangladesh: a process evaluation

Background

Living and environmental conditions in rural Bangladesh expose children to drowning. The Anchal programme protects children through crèche-based supervision in an enclosed space run by locally recruited carers. It is unclear under what conditions the programme best operates to maximise protection. We conducted a process evaluation of Anchal to determine enabling factors and challenges to implementation.

Methods

Quantitative programme data were analysed to calculate metrics including child participation and fidelity of implementation to defined processes. Qualitative data collection with programme participants and implementers provided insights into barriers and enablers of implementation. Analysis was guided by the UK Medical Research Council’s process evaluation framework.

Results

Anchal operated 400 centres with an average of 22.2 children enrolled, as per target. However, daily attendance averaged lower than the 80% target. Children aged 1–2 years old, who are most at risk of drowning, were least likely to enrol and attend regularly due to low engagement with activities and parental concerns for safety. Greater distances and lower educational attainment in some regions reduced attendance and increased carer attrition.

Conclusions

The Anchal programme met most programme delivery targets. However, programme success could be improved through increasing supervision, providing communication training for implementing staff, designing programmes for children aged 1–2 years old, encouraging community ownership and providing child pick-up services. These contextual solutions can be adapted to similar programmes operating through grassroots-level engagement and recruitment of community health workers, to maximise their effectiveness and sustainability.

Understanding implementation factors and participant experiences of a cluster randomised controlled trial to prevent falls among older Aboriginal people: a process evaluation protocol

INTRODUCTION

Process evaluations examining programme implementation are often conducted in conjunction with effectiveness studies. Their inclusion in studies with Aboriginal participants can give an understanding of programme delivery in Aboriginal community contexts. The Ironbark: Standing Strong and Tall programme was codesigned with Aboriginal communities and includes exercise and facilitated 'yarning' discussion about fall risk and prevention strategies. The programme pilot showed favourable outcomes and acceptability for Aboriginal people aged 45 years and over. The Ironbark: Standing Strong and Tall programme is now being compared with a 'Healthy Community' programme in a cluster randomised controlled trial within Aboriginal health and community services. An embedded process evaluation aims to explore relationships between participation and programme outcomes and the quality of programme implementation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The process evaluation will use a mixed methods design, guided by Indigenous research methodology. It will evaluate quantitative data (number of completed sessions, site coaching checklist tool, participant and facilitator questionnaire data and a participant habit formation scale), as well as qualitative data (open-ended responses from project and site staff and semistructured interviews using yarning with study participants and site managers). A programme logic model was developed to explain the intended inputs, activities, outputs and outcomes, which guided this process evaluation design.

CONCLUSION

This process evaluation of a fall prevention programme for older Aboriginal people using a mixed methods design and data triangulation will allow for a comprehensive understanding of study findings. Multiple study sites allow for generalisability of findings and exploration of variation across sites.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12619000349145.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS

Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Out of the silos: embedding injury prevention into the Sustainable Development Goals

Globally, unintentional injuries contribute significantly to disability and death. Prevention efforts have traditionally focused on individual injury mechanisms and their specific risk factors, which has resulted in slow progress in reducing the burden. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a global agenda for promoting human prosperity while respecting planetary boundaries. While injury prevention is currently only recognised in the SDG agenda via two road safety targets, the relevance of the SDGs for injury prevention is much broader. In this State of the Art Review, we illustrate how unintentional injury prevention efforts can be advanced substantially within a broad range of SDG goals and advocate for the integration of safety considerations across all sectors and stakeholders. This review uncovers injury prevention opportunities within broader global priorities such as urbanisation, population shifts, water safeguarding and corporate social responsibility. We demonstrate the relevance of injury prevention efforts to the SDG agenda beyond the health goal (SDG 3) and the two specific road safety targets (SDG 3.6 and SDG 11.2), highlighting 13 additional SDGs of relevance. We argue that all involved in injury prevention are at a critical juncture where we can continue with the status quo and expect to see more of the same, or mobilise the global community in an 'Injury Prevention in All Policies' approach.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Keeping afloat: a case study tracing the emergence of drowning prevention as a health issue in Bangladesh 1999-2017

BACKGROUND

Drowning is a leading cause of child death in Bangladesh. The present study investigated the emergence of drowning reduction as a priority within Bangladesh and the position it currently holds on the national policy agenda.

METHODS

This case study documents the evolution of policy responses to drowning, reporting on data from semistructured interviews and a document analysis. To identify key factors that have facilitated the prioritisation of drowning prevention, data were synthesised using Shiffman and Smith's 2007 Policy Prioritisation Framework. Furthermore, an inductive approach was used to identify key themes unique to drowning prevention that were not embedded in the framework.

RESULTS

Four key phases of policy development for drowning prevention were distinguishable: (1) identification of issue and the emergence of actor support; (2) enhanced leadership and the accumulation of issue characteristics; (3) the formation of an internal frame and its impact on global support; and (4) enhanced national recognition and supportive global normative factors. Four additional themes unique to the case of drowning were also identified: competing health priorities, limited issue awareness, shift of disease burden to non-communicable diseases and the multisectoral nature of drowning.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that the level of political prioritisation given to drowning prevention has evolved over the last decade and a half. A comprehensive understanding of factors that have elevated the issue onto the policy agenda will ensure future stakeholder engagement activities can be designed to foster deeper and more sustained commitment by key actors and organisations.

Facilitators and barriers to child restraint use in motor vehicles: a qualitative evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND

Road traffic collisions contribute a significant burden of mortality and morbidity to children globally. The improper or non-use of child restraints can result in children sustaining significant injuries in the event of a collision. Systematic reviews on the effectiveness of various interventions to increase the use of child restraints already exist but to the best of our knowledge, there has been no qualitative evidence syntheses on the facilitators and barriers to child restraint usage. This review aims to fill that gap.

METHODS

We searched for qualitative studies, which focused on perceptions, values and experiences of children, parents/caregivers or any other relevant stakeholders on the use of restraints for children travelling in motor vehicles in PubMed, EMBASE and Global Health and screened reference lists of all included studies. We assessed the quality of included studies with the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist and used the PROGRESS Plus lens for an equity focused analysis.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 335 records from searching the databases and five records from other sources. After screening, we identified 17 studies that met our inclusion criteria. All but one study (which had children as participants) focused on the perceptions, attitudes and barriers of parents or caregivers. The included studies were from three high-income (n=14) and one upper-middle income (n=3) country. In addition, although many focused exclusively on participants from culturally and linguistically diverse minorities, the issue of equity was not well addressed. Five major themes emerged from the analysis. (1) perceived risk for injuries and perceived safety benefits of child restraint usage varies in different settings and between different types of caregivers; (2) practical issues around the use of child restraints is a major barrier to its uptake as a child safety measure; (3) restraint use is considered as a mechanism to discipline children rather than as a safety device by parents and as children became older they actively seek opportunities to negotiate the non-usage of restraints; (4) adoption and enforcement of laws shape perceptions and usage in all settings and (5) perceptions and norms of child safety differ among culturally and linguistically diverse groups.

CONCLUSION

The results of this systematic review should be considered when designing interventions to promote the uptake of child restraints. However, there is a need to conduct qualitative research around the facilitators and barriers to child restraint usage in low-income and middle-income countries. Furthermore, there is a need for more evidence conducted in semiurban and rural areas and to involve fathers, policy-makers, implementers and enforcement agencies in such studies.

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background

Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning.

Results

Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes.

Conclusions

There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

Comparison of Operative Logbook Experience of Australian General Surgical Trainees With Surgeons Deployed on Humanitarian Missions: What Can Be Learnt for the Future?

OBJECTIVE

General surgical training in Australia has undergone considerable change in recent years with less exposure to other areas of surgery. General surgeons from many high-income countries have played important roles in assisting with the provision of surgical care in low- and middle-income countries during sudden-onset disasters (SODs) as part of emergency medical teams (EMTs). It is not known if contemporary Australian general surgeons are receiving the broad surgical training required for work in EMTs.

DESIGN

Logbook data on the surgical procedures performed by Australian general surgical trainees were obtained from General Surgeons Australia (GSA) for the time period February 2008 to February 2017. Surgical procedures performed by Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) surgeons during 5 projects in 3 SODs (the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the 2013 Philippines typhoon and the 2015 Nepal earthquake) were obtained from previously published data for 6 months following each disaster.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This was carried out at the University of Sydney with input from MSF Operational Centre Brussels and GSA.

RESULTS

Australian general surgical trainees performed a mean of 2107 surgical procedures (excluding endoscopy) during their training (10 6-month rotations). Common procedures included abdominal wall hernia repairs (268, 12.7%), cholecystectomies (247, 11.8%), and specialist colorectal procedures (242, 11.5%). MSF surgeons performed a total of 3542 surgical procedures across the 5 projects analyzed. Common procedures included Caesarean sections (443, 12.5%), wound debridement (1115, 31.5%), and other trauma-related procedures (472, 13.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Australian general surgical trainees receive exposure to both essential and advanced general surgery but lack exposure to specialty procedures including the obstetric and orthopedic procedures commonly performed by MSF surgeons after SODs. Further training in these areas would likely be beneficial for general surgeons prior to deployment with an EMT.

Mortality and health-related quality of life following injuries and associated factors: a cohort study in Chandigarh, North India

INTRODUCTION

Injuries are among the 10 leading causes of deaths worldwide. In recent years, the quality and reporting of injury mortality has improved but little or no data are available on the morbidity burden and impact of non-fatal injuries in India. This study evaluates health recovery status postinjury, identifying predictors of recovery in North India.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study recruiting patients from one tertiary-level and two secondary-level hospitals in North India between April and June 2014 hospitalised due to any injury. Health-related quality of life was assessed at baseline and at 1-month, 2-month, 4-month and 12-month postinjury using the EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire. Multivariable linear regressions with generalised estimating equations were used to examine the relationship between sociodemographic and injury-related factors with the EQ-5D-5L single utility score and the visual analogue scale (VAS) score.

RESULTS

A total of 2416 eligible patients aged ≥18 years were enrolled in the study. Of these, 2150 (74%) completed baseline and all four follow-up EQ-5D-5L questionnaires. Almost 7% (n=172) patients died by the first follow-up and the overall mortality at 12 months was 9% (n=176). Both EQ-5D-5L utility and VAS scores dropped significantly at 1-month postinjury but gradually improved at 2, 4 and 12 months. Severe injuries, defined as those requiring a hospital stay of ≥7 days, were associated with lower utility scores at 1-month, 2-month and 4-month follow-ups (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to examine health outcomes following injuries in India. The findings highlight the need to understand the social, psychological and biological factors influencing recovery outcomes. High mortality following discharge emphasises the need to invest in secondary and tertiary injury prevention in India.

Enabling factors and barriers to the sustainability and scale-up of drowning reduction interventions in Vietnam: a qualitative assessment

BACKGROUND

Vietnam has some of the highest rates of drowning deaths in the Western Pacific Region, particularly among children aged 19 years or younger. Several policies aimed at drowning prevention have been developed over the last decade; however, despite policy support, generally these have not been sustained beyond a pilot phase or have been limited to small geographical regions. The present study aims to explore barriers and facilitators for sustainability and scale-up of drowning prevention initiatives in Vietnam, identifying ways forward for future implementation.

METHODS

This was a qualitative study using semistructured indepth interviews with key stakeholders (n=12) engaged in drowning prevention in Vietnam. The Framework Method was used to analyse the data drawing on Schell's theoretical framework for public health programme sustainability. The Framework Method is most commonly used for the thematic analysis of semistructured interview transcripts, particularly as the data were fairly homogeneous.

RESULTS

Four key factors were identified that facilitated implementation of drowning reduction activities in Vietnam. Strong political support at all levels, underpinned by policy; effective partnerships with the community; widespread communication; and programme adaptation to local contexts and application of innovative approaches, for example, strengthening organisational capacity in limited resource settings, were the key enablers. Barriers include the instability of the funding sources; inadequate programme evaluations to generate evidence of effectiveness and lack of consistent and timely data collection; and insufficient strategic planning for long-term implementation of drowning prevention interventions.

CONCLUSION

Ensuring the sustainability and scale-up of drowning prevention programmes in Vietnam requires a continued focus on enablers such as on community engagement, communication activities and partnership approaches, and importantly concerted efforts to mobilise resources for continued long-term funding, improvements in planning and intersectoral coordination, and ensuring that future programmes are robustly evaluated for effectiveness.

Australasian general surgical training and emergency medical teams: a review

Emergency medical teams (EMTs) have provided surgical care in sudden-onset disasters in low- and middle-income countries. General surgeons have been heavily involved in many EMTs due to their traditional broad set of surgical skills and experience. With the increased subspecialization of general surgical training in many high-income countries, including Australia and New Zealand, finding general surgeons with adequately broad experience is becoming more challenging. Furthermore, it is now considered standard for EMTs deploying to a sudden-onset disaster to have undergone credentialing, demonstrating sufficient training of their deployed members. The purpose of this review was to highlight the challenges and potential solutions facing those involved in training and recruiting general surgeons for EMTs in Australasia.

Road user behaviour, attitudes and crashes: a survey of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to describe road user behaviour, attitudes and crashes in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in four urban, regional and remote communities located in New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA).

METHODS

Face-to-face surveys were administered to clients (n=625) in Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services (ACCHS). All Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander clients attending the ACCHS for any reason were approached to participate over a 2-week period. Surveys included questions on sociodemographic factors, crash involvement, road behaviours and road safety attitudes drawn from tools used in national surveys.

RESULTS

The participation rate was high (69%-75%). Seat belt wearing rates were very high, particularly in the front of a car, although rear seat belt wearing rates in SA (77%) were substantially lower than in NSW (93%). Among drivers, 11% reported always or mostly driving 10 km/hour over the speed limit, and this was higher among drivers in SA (13.4%). Drivers aged 55 years and over and/or women were more likely to report that they do not drink at any time or restricted what they drank when driving. These results enable comparison with the Community Attitude to Road Safety survey conducted Australia-wide in 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are inclined to report attitudes or road safety behaviours similar to the rest of the population; however, rear restraint use was lower and self-reported speeding was higher. These issues are likely attributable to transport options and geography in remote communities, which can contribute to overcrowding and unsafe driving practices.

Trends of drowning mortality in Vietnam: evidence from the national injury mortality surveillance system

Objective

To describe the trends of drowning mortality in Vietnam over time and to identify socioeconomic characteristics associated with higher drowning mortality at the provincial level.

Methods

We analysed data from the Ministry of Health injury mortality surveillance system from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. The surveillance covers more than 11 000 commune health centres in all provinces of Vietnam. For provincial population and socioeconomic characteristics, we extracted data from the National census 2009, the Population change and family planning surveys in 2011 and 2013. Multilevel linear models were used to identify provincial characteristics associated with higher mortality rates.

Results

Over the 5-year period between 2009 and 2013, 31 232 drowning deaths were reported, equivalent to a 5-year average of 6246 drowning deaths. During this period, drowning mortality rate decreased 7.2/100 000 to 6.9/100 000 (p=0.035). Of six major geographical regions, Northern midland, Central highland and Mekong delta were those with highest mortality rates. In all regions, children aged 1–4 years had the highest mortality rates, followed by those aged 5–9 and 10–14 years. At provincial level, having a coastline was not associated with higher mortality rate. Provinces with larger population size and greater proportion of poor households were statistically significantly associated with higher mortality rates (p=0.042 and 0.006, respectively).

Conclusion

While some gains have been made in reducing drowning mortality, child deaths due to drowning in Vietnam remain alarmingly high. Targeted scale-up of known effective interventions such as child supervision and basic survival skills are needed for reducing child mortality due to drowning, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged provinces.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A mixed methods evaluation of yoga as a fall prevention strategy for older people in India

BACKGROUND

Falls are an emerging public health issue in India, with the impact set to rise as the population ages. We sought to evaluate the acceptability, feasibility and likely impact of a yoga-based program aimed at improving balance and mobility for older residents in urban India.

METHODS

Fifty local residents aged 60 years and older were recruited from urban Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. They were invited to attend a 1-h yoga class, twice weekly for 3 months. Mixed methods were used to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility (qualitative) and likely impact (quantitative). Two focus groups and eight interviews with participants were conducted to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of a yoga program. Thematic analysis was conducted in context of perceptions, barriers and benefits of yoga participation and fall ascertainment. Physical performance using the Short Physical Performance Battery, fear of falling, blood pressure and weight loss were measured before and after the program.

RESULTS

The interviews and focus groups provided insights into the preferred format for classes, including session times, level of supervision and location. Improvements were seen in the Short Falls Efficacy Scale-International (Short FES-I (15.9 ± 4.0 vs 13.8 ± 2.1 s, p = 0.002)), the number of steps taken in the timed 4-m walk (T4MW (9.0 ± 1.8 vs 8.6 ± 1.8, p = 0.04)), Short FES-I scores (9.4 ± 2.9 vs 8.6 ± 2.9, p = 0.02) and weight (63.8 ± 12.4 vs 62.1 ± 11.6, p = 0.004) were lower. No changes were seen in standing balance, blood pressure or T4MW time.

CONCLUSION

Yoga was well accepted and resulted in improved ability to rise from a chair, weight loss, increased step length and reduced fear of falling. These results provide impetus for further research evaluating yoga as a fall prevention strategy in India.

Sex differences evident in self-reported but not objective measures of driving

It has been consistently reported that women self-regulate their driving more than men. Volunteer drivers aged 75 years and older from the suburban outskirts of Sydney, Australia joined a longitudinal study in 2012-2014. GPS in-vehicle monitoring was used to objectively measure driving and surveys of driving patterns. The study included 343 drivers (203/343, 59% men) with an average age of 80 years. Our results revealed that men were 3.85 times more likely to report driving beyond their local shire during the past year (95% CI 2.03-5.72) and 1.81 times more likely to report that they do not avoid night driving (95% CI 1.21-3.22). In contrast sex was not predictive of any objective measure of driving during a one-week period of monitoring. These findings suggest that men and women report different self-regulation practices but that actual driving exposure is quite similar. These findings can inform strategies to promote safe mobility.

Systematic review of drowning in India: assessment of burden and risk

AIM

To examine the burden and risk factors for fatal and non-fatal drowning in India.

METHODS

Relevant literature was identified through a systematic search of 19 electronic databases and 19 national and global, institutional, organisational and government sources of injury data. Search terms used pertained to drowning, injury, trauma, morbidity and mortality in India.

RESULTS

A total of 16 research articles and five data sources were included in the review. Three national data sources provided counts of drowning deaths, reporting a range of 1348-62 569 drowning deaths per year. A further three national data sources provided information on drowning-related morbidity; however, each source presented different outcome measures making comparison difficult. Ten research studies investigated risk factors associated with drowning in India. Key risk factors reported were male gender, young age (0-5 years) and individuals residing in the North-Eastern part of the country who have high exposure to water sources within community settings.

CONCLUSION

Drowning-related morbidity and mortality have a significant impact on India, with risk factors identified for this setting similar to those within other low-income and middle-income countries. Regional data which look beyond routinely collected data are required to accurately investigate the burden and impact of drowning, to inform targeted, context-specific approaches for drowning reduction initiatives.

"He's the Number One Thing in My World": Application of the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model to Explore Child Car Seat Use in a Regional Community in New South Wales

We explored the factors influencing the use of age-appropriate car seats in a community with a high proportion of Aboriginal families in regional New South Wales. We conducted a survey and three focus groups with parents of children aged 3–5 years enrolled at three early learning centres on the Australian south-east coast. Survey data were triangulated with qualitative data from focus groups and analysed using the PRECEDE-PROCEED conceptual framework. Of the 133 eligible families, 97 (73%) parents completed the survey including 31% of parents who reported their children were Aboriginal. Use of age-appropriate car seats was reported by 80 (83%) of the participants, and awareness of the child car seat legislation was high (91/97, 94%). Children aged 2–3 years were less likely reported to be restrained in an age-appropriate car seat than were older children aged 4–5 years (60% versus 95%: χ² = 19.14, p < 0.001). Focus group participants highlighted how important their child’s safety was to them, spoke of the influence grandparents had on their use of child car seats and voiced mixed views on the value of authorised child car seat fitters. Future programs should include access to affordable car seats and target community members as well as parents with clear, consistent messages highlighting the safety benefits of using age-appropriate car seats.

The psychological impact of traffic injuries sustained in a road crash by bicyclists: A prospective study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to investigate the psychological impact of traffic injuries in bicyclists (cyclists) in comparison to car occupants who also sustained traffic injuries. Factors predictive of elevated psychological distress were also investigated.

METHODS

An inception cohort prospective design was used. Participants included cyclists aged ≥17 years (mean age 41.7 years) who sustained a physical injury (n = 238) assessed within 28 days of the crash, following medical examination by a registered health care practitioner. Injury included musculoskeletal and soft tissue injuries and minor/moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI), excluding severe TBI, spinal cord injury, and severe multiple fractures. Assessment also occurred 6 months postinjury. Telephone-administered interviews assessed a suite of measures including sociodemographic, preinjury health and injury factors. Psychological impact was measured by pain catastrophization, trauma-related distress, and general psychological distress. The psychological health of the cyclists was compared to that of the car occupants (n = 234; mean age 43.1 years). A mixed model repeated measures analysis, adjusted for confounding factors, was used to determine differences between groups and regression analyses were used to determine contributors to psychological health in the cyclists 6 months postinjury.

RESULTS

Cyclists had significantly better psychological health (e.g., lower pain catastrophizing, lower rates of probable posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD], and lower general distress levels) compared to car occupants at baseline and 6 months postinjury. Factors predictive of cyclists' psychological distress included younger age, greater perceived danger of death, poorer preinjury health, and greater amount of time in hospital after the injury.

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide insight into how cyclists perceive and adjust to their traffic injuries compared to drivers and passengers who sustain traffic injuries, as well as direction for preventing the development of severe psychological injury. Future research should examine the utility of predictors of psychological health to improve recovery.

Addressing the barriers to driver licensing for Aboriginal people in New South Wales and South Australia

OBJECTIVE

Low rates of driver licensing have been linked to increased risk of transport-related injury, and reduced access to health services, employment and educational opportunities in the Aboriginal population. This paper reports on how barriers to obtaining a driver licence are being addressed in four Aboriginal communities in New South Wales and South Australia.

METHODS

Qualitative data were collected over a four-month period in 2013. Interviews with Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal stakeholders (n=31) and 11 focus groups with Aboriginal participants (n=46) were analysed thematically using a framework approach.

RESULTS

Factors facilitating licensing included: family support, professional lessons, alternative testing and programs that assist with literacy, fines management, financial assistance and access to a supervising driver. Stakeholders recommended raising awareness of existing services and funding community-based service provision to promote access to licensing.

DISCUSSION

Facilitating licence participation requires systemic change and long-term investment to ensure interagency collaboration, service use and sustainability of relevant programs, including job search agencies. Implications for public health: The disadvantage faced by Aboriginal people in driver licensing is a fundamental barrier to participation and a social determinant of health. Understanding the factors that promote licensing is crucial to improving access for under-serviced populations; recommendations provide pragmatic solutions to address licensing disadvantage.

PrevenTing Falls in a high-risk, vision-impaired population through specialist ORientation and Mobility services: protocol for the PlaTFORM randomised trial

Background

Older people with vision impairment have significant ongoing morbidity, including risk of falls, but are neglected in fall prevention programmes. PlaTFORM is a pragmatic evaluation of the Lifestyle-integrated Functional Exercise fall prevention programme for older people with vision impairment or blindness (v-LiFE). Implementation and scalability issues will also be investigated.

Methods

PlaTFORM is a single-blinded, randomised trial designed to evaluate the v-LiFE programme compared with usual care. Primary outcomes are fall rate over 12 months, measured using prospective monthly fall calendars, and function and participation assessed by the Late-Life Function and Disability Instrument (Late-Life FDI) Function component. The secondary outcome is rate of falls requiring medical care. Activity-normalised fall rate will be estimated using accelerometer-measured physical activity data. EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level questionnaire will measure quality of life and impact of falls. Health record linkage will estimate resource use associated with falls. v-LiFE cost-effectiveness will be determined compared with usual care. 500 participants (250 per group) can provide 90% power to detect a significant between-group difference in fall rates; 588 will be recruited to allow for drop-out. Falls per person-year and Late-Life FDI will be compared between groups.

Discussion

PlaTFORM will determine if falls can be prevented among older people with vision loss through a home-based exercise programme. v-LiFE embeds balance and strength training within everyday activities with the aim of preventing falls. The study will also determine whether the programme can be effectively delivered by personnel who provide Orientation and Mobility training for people with vision impairment.

Trial registration number

ACTRN12616001186448p.

Driver licensing: descriptive epidemiology of a social determinant of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health

OBJECTIVE

Education, employment and equitable access to services are commonly accepted as important underlying social determinants of health. For most Australians, access to health, education and other services is facilitated by private transport and a driver licence. This study aimed to examine licensing rates and predictors of licensing in a sample of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, as these have previously been poorly described.

METHODS

Interviewer-administered surveys were conducted with 625 people 16 years or older in four Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services in New South Wales and South Australia over a two-week period in 2012-2013.

RESULTS

Licensing rates varied from 51% to 77% by site. Compared to not having a licence, having a driver licence was significantly associated with higher odds of full-time employment (adjusted OR 4.0, 95%CI 2.5-6.3) and educational attainment (adjusted OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.2-2.8 for trade or certificate; adjusted OR 4.0, 95%CI 1.6-9.5 for degree qualification).

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in driver licensing rates suggests different yet pervasive barriers to access. There is a strong association between driver licensing, education and employment.

IMPLICATIONS

Licensing inequality has far-reaching impacts on the broader health and wellbeing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, reinforcing the need for appropriate and accessible pathways to achieving and maintaining driver licensing.