Expanding the adenovirus toolbox: reporter viruses for studying the dynamics of human adenovirus replication

To streamline standard virological assays, we developed a suite of nine fluorescent or bioluminescent replication competent human species C5 adenovirus reporter viruses that mimic their parental wild-type counterpart. These reporter viruses provide a rapid and quantitative readout of various aspects of viral infection and replication based on EGFP, mCherry, or NanoLuc measurement. Moreover, they permit real-time non-invasive measures of viral load, replication dynamics, and infection kinetics over the entire course of infection, allowing measurements that were not previously possible. This suite of replication competent reporter viruses increases the ease, speed, and adaptability of standard assays and has the potential to accelerate multiple areas of human adenovirus research.IMPORTANCEIn this work, we developed a versatile toolbox of nine HAdV-C5 reporter viruses and validated their functions in cell culture. These reporter viruses provide a rapid and quantitative readout of various aspects of viral infection and replication based on EGFP, mCherry, or NanoLuc measurement. The utility of these reporter viruses could also be extended for use in 3D cell culture, organoids, live cell imaging, or animal models, and provides a conceptual framework for the development of new reporter viruses representing other clinically relevant HAdV species.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for V937 oncolytic virus in mice

Introduction: Oncolytic viruses (OVs) represent a novel therapeutic strategy in oncology due to their capability to selectively infect and replicate in cancer cells, triggering a direct and/or immune-induced tumor lysis. However, the mechanisms governing OV pharmacokinetics are still poorly understood. This work aims to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the novel OV, V937, in non-tumor-bearing mice to get a quantitative understanding of its elimination and tissue uptake processes. Materials and methods: Model development was performed using data obtained from 60 mice. Viral levels were quantified from eight tissues after a single intravenous V937 dose. An external dataset was used for model validation. This test set included multiple-dose experiments with different routes of administration. V937 distribution in each organ was described using a physiological structure based on mouse-specific organ blood flows and volumes. Analyses were performed using the non-linear mixed-effects approach with NONMEM 7.4. Results: Viral levels showed a drop from 108 to 105 copies/µg RNA at day 1 in blood, reflected in a high estimate of total clearance (18.2 mL/h). A well-stirred model provided an adequate description for all organs except the muscle and heart, where a saturable uptake process improved data description. The highest numbers of viral copies were observed in the brain, lymph node, kidney, liver, lung, and spleen on the first day after injection. On the other hand, the maximum amount of viral copies in the heart, muscle, and pancreas occurred 3 days after administration. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first physiologically based pharmacokinetic model developed to characterize OV biodistribution, representing a relevant source of quantitative knowledge regarding the in vivo behavior of OVs. This model can be further expanded by adding a tumor compartment, where OVs could replicate.

Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Genetic and Functional Characterization of Congenital HCMV Clinical Strains in Ex Vivo First Trimester Placental Model

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the leading cause of congenital viral infection, leading to a variety of symptoms in the unborn child that range from asymptomatic to death in utero. Our objective was to better understand the mechanisms of placental infection by HCMV clinical strains, particularly during the first trimester of pregnancy. We thus characterized and compared the replication kinetics of various HCMV clinical strains and laboratory strains by measuring viral loads in an ex vivo model of first trimester villi and decidua, and used NGS and PCA analysis to analyze the genes involved in cell tropism and virulence factors. We observed that first trimester villi and decidua are similarly permissive to laboratory and symptomatic strains, and that asymptomatic strains poorly replicate in decidua tissue. PCA analysis allowed us to segregate our clinical strains based on their clinical characteristics, suggesting a link between gene mutations and symptoms. All these results bring forth elements that can help better understand the mechanisms that induce the appearance of symptoms or in the congenitally infected newborn.

Proposal of Model for Evaluation of Viral Kinetics of African/Asian/Brazilian-Zika virus Strains (Step Growth Curve) in Trophoblastic Cell Lines

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic brought new discoveries regarding arboviruses, especially flaviviruses, as ZIKV was described as sexually and vertically transmitted. The latter shows severe consequences for the embryo/fetus, such as congenital microcephaly and deficiency of the neural system, currently known as Congenital ZIKV Syndrome (CZS). To better understand ZIKV dynamics in trophoblastic cells present in the first trimester of pregnancy (BeWo, HTR-8, and control cell HuH-7), an experiment of viral kinetics was performed for African MR766 low passage and Asian-Brazilian IEC ZIKV lineages. The results were described independently and demonstrated that the three placental cells lines are permissive and susceptible to ZIKV. We noticed cytopathic effects that are typical in in vitro viral infection in BeWo and HTR-8. Regarding kinetics, MR766lp showed peaks of viral loads in 24 and 48 hpi for all cell types tested, as well as marked cells death after peak production. On the other hand, the HTR-8 lineage inoculated with ZIKV-IEC exhibited increased viral production in 144 hpi, with a peak between 24 and 96 hpi. Furthermore, IEC had peak variations of viral production for BeWo in 144 hpi. Considering such in vitro results, the hypothesis that maternal fetal transmission is probably a way of virus transmission between the mother and the embryo/fetus is maintained.

Pre-existing, treatment-specific resistance-associated substitutions in hepatitis C virus genotype 1 and 3 and viral RNA titers during treatment with direct-acting antivirals

The introduction of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients has greatly increased treatment success rates. However, viral response kinetics to DAA treatment may depend on pre-existing resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) in HCV. The aim of this study was to describe how pre-existing RASs affect DAA treatment-induced reduction in HCV RNA titers in HCV genotypes 1- and 3-infected individuals. Patients with HCV genotype 1 infection (N = 31) treated with either sofosbuvir/ledipasvir/ribavirin or paritaprevir/ombitasvir/ritonavir/dasabuvir/ribavirin and HCV genotype 3-infected patients (N = 16) treated with either sofosbuvir/daclatasvir/ribavirin or sofosbuvir/ribavirin were analyzed. HCV RNA levels were determined at baseline and frequently during treatment, and RAS profiles were obtained by deep sequencing at baseline. In total, 33/47 (70.2%) of the patients had baseline RASs. However, treatment-specific RASs were detected at baseline only in 12.9% and 18.8% of HCV genotypes 1- and 3-infected patients, respectively. In genotype 1-infected individuals, reduction in HCV RNA titer during the first week of treatment was not affected by evidence of either treatment-specific RASs or cirrhosis or treatment regimen. In genotype 3-infected individuals receiving sofosbuvir/daclatasvir/ribavirin, the presence of daclatasvir-specific NS5A RASs at baseline correlated with a reduced decline of HCV RNA in the first treatment week. For both genotypes 1- and 3-infected individuals, cirrhosis but not treatment-specific RAS were associated with the time of clearance of HCV RNA. It is, however, important to note that this study involves DAA regimens that were used only during the original introduction of interferon-free DAA-based treatments.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Load Kinetics and Clinical Course of Acute Bronchiolitis in Hospitalized Infants: Interim Results and Review of the Literature

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants. The role of RSV load in disease severity is still debated. We present the interim results of a prospective monocentric study enrolling previously healthy infants hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, collecting nasopharyngeal aspirates every 48 h from admission to discharge, and evaluating RSV load dynamics in relation to clinical outcome measures of bronchiolitis severity, including: need, type and duration of oxygen therapy, length of hospitalization, and the bronchiolitis clinical score calculated at admission. The results showed that the highest viral replication occurs within the first 48 hours after admission, with a significant decrease at subsequent time points (p < 0.0001). Moreover, higher RSV-RNA values were associated with the need for oxygen therapy (p = 0.03), particularly high-flow nasal cannula type (p = 0.04), and longer duration of respiratory support (p = 0.04). Finally, higher RSV load values were correlated with lower white blood cells, especially lymphocyte counts and C-reactive protein levels (p = 0.03, p = 0.04, and p = 0.01, respectively), as well as with patients of a younger age (p = 0.02). These data suggest that RSV may actively contribute to the clinical severity of bronchiolitis, together with other potential non-viral factors.

Clinical presentation, viral kinetics, and management of human monkeypox cases from New Delhi, India 2022

We describe the clinical and demographic characteristics, virological follow-up, and management of five confirmed monkeypox cases from New Delhi, India without any international travel history. The viral load kinetics and viral clearance were estimated in oropharyngeal swabs (OPS), nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS), EDTA blood, serum, urine, and various lesion specimens on every fourth day of follow-up ranging from 5 to 24 post onset day (POD) of illness. All five cases presented with mild to moderate-grade intermittent fever, myalgia, and lesions on the genitals, groins, lower limb, trunk, and upper limb. Four cases had non-tender firm lymphadenopathy. No secondary complications or sexually transmitted infections were recorded in these cases except for the presence of viral hepatitis B infection marker hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) in one case. All the cases were mild and had a good recovery. A higher viral load was detected in lesion fluid (POD 9), followed by lesion roof (POD 9), urine (POD 5), lesion base (POD 5), and OPS/NPS (POD 5). The monkeypox virus (MPXV) DNA was detected in clinical samples from 5th to 24th POD. These monkeypox cases without international travel history suggest the underdiagnosed monkeypox infection in the community. This emphasizes the need for active surveillance of MPXV in the high-risk population such as men having sex with men and female sex workers.

Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear.

Methods

We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions.

Results

Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3-53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct <30) 5 days post detection, with small differences across variants and vaccination status. Only seven viral rebounds (0.7%; N=999) were observed, with rebound defined as 3+days with Ct <30 following an initial clearance of 3+days with Ct ≥30. High antibody titers against the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain predicted lower peak viral loads and shorter durations of infection. Among Omicron BA.1 infections, boosted individuals had lower pre-booster antibody titers and longer clearance times than non-boosted individuals.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly determined by immunity and variant but dominated by individual-level variation. Since booster vaccination protects against infection, longer clearance times for BA.1-infected, boosted individuals may reflect a less effective immune response, more common in older individuals, that increases infection risk and reduces viral RNA clearance rate. The shifting landscape of viral kinetics underscores the need for continued monitoring to optimize isolation policies and to contextualize the health impacts of therapeutics and vaccines.

Funding

Supported in part by CDC contract #200-2016-91779, a sponsored research agreement to Yale University from the National Basketball Association contract #21-003529, and the National Basketball Players Association.

Point-of-care detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen among symptomatic vs. asymptomatic persons: Testing for COVID-19 vs. infectivity

Background

Management of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) requires rapid and simple methods to detect COVID-19 patients and identify potential infectors. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of a point-of-care (PoC) rapid antigen diagnostic test (Ag-RDT) in these settings.

Patients and methods

Individuals who consecutively presented for SARS-CoV-2 testing at a tertiary care center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, underwent PoC Ag-RDT testing and real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) on the same day during June 2021.

Results

Of 584 included subjects, 108 (18.5%) were symptomatic for COVID-19 while the remaining presented for miscellaneous reasons unrelated to possible or confirmed contact with a SARS-CoV-2-infected individual. A positive Ag-RDT result was obtained in 26 (24.1%) symptomatic and 7 (1.5%) asymptomatic persons (p < 0.001), which was concordant with qRT-PCR in 105/108 [97.2%, Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ) = 0.927] symptomatic and 467/476 (98.1% κ = 0.563) asymptomatic participants, with a positive percentage agreement (PPA; 95% confidence interval) of 89.7% (71.5-97.3%) and 42.9% (18.8-70.4%), respectively. None of the 11 false-negative diagnoses showed a C_t-value ≤20. Considering only failures with a C_t-value below 31 as hypothetical infectivity threshold of 10⁵ SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/mL, concordance was observed in 98.1% (κ = 0.746) in the asymptomatic population, accounting for a PPA of 66.7% (30.9-91%).

Conclusions

PoC Ag-RDT accurately detected active SARS-CoV-2 infection and showed acceptable diagnostic performance in asymptomatic persons potentially spreading infectious virus. Ag-RDT may therefore be useful to slow down or stop transmission by enabling adequate decisions on isolation at a public health level.

No effect of remdesivir or betamethasone on upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 RNA kinetics in hospitalised COVID-19 patients: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 has been considered clinically important. While remdesivir and corticosteroids are recommended for COVID-19 patients requiring oxygen support, there is a limited number of published reports on viral kinetics in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 treated with remdesivir or corticosteroids.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study by collecting longitudinal samples from the nasopharynx/throat of 123 hospitalised patients (median age 55 years, 74% male) with COVID-19, to evaluate the effects of remdesivir and corticosteroid treatment on viral RNA levels. The subjects were divided into four groups: those receiving remdesivir (n = 25), betamethasone (n = 41), both (n = 15), or neither (n = 42). Time to viral RNA clearance was analysed using Kaplan-Meier plots, categorical data were analysed using Fisher's exact test, and Kruskal-Wallis for continuous data. Viral RNA decline rate was analysed using a mixed effect model.

RESULTS

We found no significant difference in SARS-CoV-2 RNA decline rate or time to SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance between the groups. Moreover, clinical status at baseline was not correlated with time to viral clearance.

CONCLUSIONS

Since SARS-CoV-2 RNA kinetics was not affected by treatment, repeated sampling from the upper respiratory tract cannot be used to evaluate treatment response.

Mutation in the Disordered Linker Region of Capsid Disrupts Viral Kinetics of a Neuropathogenic SIV in Rhesus Macaques

TRIM5α polymorphism in rhesus macaques (RM) limits the genetic pool of animals in which we can perform simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) studies without first screening animals for permissive TRIM5α genotypes. We have previously shown that polymorphisms in the TRIM5α B30.2/SPRY domain impact the level of SIVsmm viremia in RM and that amino acid substitutions (P37S/R98S) in the capsid N-terminal domain (CA-NTD) enables the virus to overcome restriction in RMs with the restrictive homozygous TRIM5αTFP/TFP genotype. Since this genotype also negatively impacted the development of central nervous system (CNS) lesions in animals infected with the parental source of CL757, we sought to generate a TRIM5αTFP/TFP-resistant clone, SIV-804E-CL757-P37S/R98S (CL757-SS), using a similar strategy. Unexpectedly, viral replication of CL757-SS was impaired in RMs with either the permissive TRIM5αTFP/Q or the restrictive TRIM5αTFP/TFP genotype. Analysis of the virus which emerged in the latter animals led to the discovery of a preexisting mutation relative to other SIVs. This P146T substitution in a conserved disordered linker region in the C-terminal domain of capsid (CA-CTD) has been shown to inhibit proper formation of HIV-1 capsid particles. Restoration of this residue to proline in the context of the TRIM5α-SS escape mutations not only restored viral replication, but also enhanced the infectivity of our previously reported neurotropic clone, even in RMs with permissive TRIM5α genotypes. IMPORTANCE SIV infection of rhesus macaques has become a valuable model for the development of AIDS vaccines and antiretroviral therapies. Polymorphisms in the rhesus macaque TRIM5α gene can affect SIV replication, making it necessary to genetically screen macaques for TRIM5α alleles that are permissive for SIV replication. This limits the pool of animals that can be used in a study, thereby making the acquisition of animals needed to fulfill study parameters difficult. We have constructed a viral clone that induces neuroAIDS in rhesus macaques regardless of their TRIM5α genotype, while also highlighting the important role the disordered linker domain plays in viral infectivity.

Epstein-Barr Virus Reactivation After Paediatric Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: Risk Factors and Sensitivity Analysis of Mathematical Model

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) establishes a lifelong latent infection in healthy humans, kept under immune control by cytotoxic T cells (CTLs). Following paediatric haematopoetic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), a loss of immune surveillance leads to opportunistic outgrowth of EBV-infected cells, resulting in EBV reactivation, which can ultimately progress to post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD). The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for EBV reactivation in children in the first 100 days post-HSCT and to assess the suitability of a previously reported mathematical model to mechanistically model EBV reactivation kinetics in this cohort. Retrospective electronic data were collected from 56 children who underwent HSCT at Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) between 2005 and 2016. Using EBV viral load (VL) measurements from weekly quantitative PCR (qPCR) monitoring post-HSCT, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH) model was developed to assess time to first EBV reactivation event in the first 100 days post-HSCT. Sensitivity analysis of a previously reported mathematical model was performed to identify key parameters affecting EBV VL. Cox-PH modelling revealed EBV seropositivity of the HSCT recipient and administration of anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) pre-HSCT to be significantly associated with an increased risk of EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.32, P = 0.02; AHR = 2.55, P = 0.04). Five parameters were found to affect EBV VL in sensitivity analysis of the previously reported mathematical model. In conclusion, we have assessed the effect of multiple covariates on EBV reactivation in the first 100 days post-HSCT in children and have identified key parameters in a previously reported mechanistic mathematical model that affect EBV VL. Future work will aim to fit this model to patient EBV VLs, develop the model to account for interindividual variability and model the effect of clinically relevant covariates such as rituximab therapy and ATG on EBV VL.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

Modeling hepatitis C virus kinetics during liver transplantation reveals the role of the liver in virus clearance

While the liver, specifically hepatocytes, are widely accepted as the main source of hepatitis C virus (HCV) production, the role of the liver/hepatocytes in clearance of circulating HCV remains unknown. Frequent HCV kinetic data were recorded and mathematically modeled from five liver transplant patients throughout the anhepatic (absence of liver) phase and for 4 hr post-reperfusion. During the anhepatic phase, HCV remained at pre-anhepatic levels (n = 3) or declined (n = 2) with t_1/2~1 hr. Immediately post-reperfusion, virus declined in a biphasic manner in four patients consisting of a rapid decline (t_1/2 = 5 min) followed by a slower decline (t_1/2 = 67 min). Consistent with the majority of patients in the anhepatic phase, when we monitored HCV clearance at 37°C from culture medium in the absence/presence of chronically infected hepatoma cells that were inhibited from secreting HCV, the HCV t_1/2 in cell culture was longer in the absence of chronically HCV-infected cells. The results suggest that the liver plays a major role in the clearance of circulating HCV and that hepatocytes may be involved.

A hybrid PDE-ABM model for viral dynamics with application to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza

We propose a hybrid partial differential equation-agent-based (PDE-ABM) model to describe the spatio-temporal viral dynamics in a cell population. The virus concentration is considered as a continuous variable and virus movement is modelled by diffusion, while changes in the states of cells (i.e. healthy, infected, dead) are represented by a stochastic ABM. The two subsystems are intertwined: the probability of an agent getting infected in the ABM depends on the local viral concentration, and the source term of viral production in the PDE is determined by the cells that are infected. We develop a computational tool that allows us to study the hybrid system and the generated spatial patterns in detail. We systematically compare the outputs with a classical ODE system of viral dynamics, and find that the ODE model is a good approximation only if the diffusion coefficient is large. We demonstrate that the model is able to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and replicate the output of in vitro experiments. Applying the model to influenza as well, we can gain insight into why the outcomes of these two infections are different.

Viral Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019

To determine the relationship between viral kinetics and severity of disease in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we investigated the viral kinetics and compared the viral loads of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2), stratified by symptoms and severity. We determined the viral kinetics of 100 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Chosun University Hospital between February 2020 and May 2021 and analyzed the differences between asymptomatic, symptomatic, and nonsurvivor patients and between patients who died and those who survived. Clinical samples, comprising respiratory specimens (sputum samples and nasopharynx and oropharynx swab samples), were obtained at different time points of hospitalization, at 1, 3 to 5, 7, 10, 14, and 30 days. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). All three groups, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and deceased patients, had higher numbers of viral copies at symptom onset, and the asymptomatic group had lower numbers of viral copies than the symptomatic or nonsurvivor group. Viral RNA release was detected until 30 days after symptom onset. The virus cleared up earlier in asymptomatic patients than in symptomatic and nonsurvivor patients, and it cleared up earlier in mildly affected patients than in severely affected patients. The cycle threshold values tended to be significantly lower in the group receiving steroids than in the nonsteroid group, even in the low-risk group with a pneumonia severity index of less than 90. The viral loads in patients with COVID-19 were significantly different according to disease severity and steroid use. IMPORTANCE In our study, we analyzed the viral kinetics of COVID-19 patients. Our study reveals differences in viral shedding according to the severity of disease in COVID-19 patients. Viral shedding had a longer duration in severely affected patients, and the cyclic threshold values were lower in the group receiving steroids. This study is expected to be helpful in analyzing the trend of the disease course according to steroid use and severity of SARS-CoV-2 disease.

Viral Load Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Hospitalized Individuals With Coronavirus Disease 2019

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) kinetics remain understudied, including the impact of remdesivir. In hospitalized individuals, peak sputum viral load occurred in week 2 of symptoms, whereas viremia peaked within 1 week of symptom-onset, suggesting early systemic seeding of SARS-CoV-2. Remdesivir treatment was associated with faster viral decay.

Mechanistic Modeling of a Novel Oncolytic Virus, V937, to Describe Viral Kinetic and Dynamic Processes Following Intratumoral and Intravenous Administration

V937 is an investigational novel oncolytic non-genetically modified Kuykendall strain of Coxsackievirus A21 which is in clinical development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor malignancies. V937 infects and lyses tumor cells expressing the intercellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-I) receptor. We integrated in vitro and in vivo data from six different preclinical studies to build a mechanistic model that allowed a quantitative analysis of the biological processes of V937 viral kinetics and dynamics, viral distribution to tumor, and anti-tumor response elicited by V937 in human xenograft models in immunodeficient mice following intratumoral and intravenous administration. Estimates of viral infection and replication which were calculated from in vitro experiments were successfully used to describe the tumor response in vivo under various experimental conditions. Despite the predicted high clearance rate of V937 in systemic circulation (t_1/2 = 4.3 min), high viral replication was observed in immunodeficient mice which resulted in tumor shrinkage with both intratumoral and intravenous administration. The described framework represents a step towards the quantitative characterization of viral distribution, replication, and oncolytic effect of a novel oncolytic virus following intratumoral and intravenous administrations in the absence of an immune response. This model may further be expanded to integrate the role of the immune system on viral and tumor dynamics to support the clinical development of oncolytic viruses.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop data-driven viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking VL to infectiousness, showing that a person's infectiousness increases sub-linearly with VL. We show that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract (URT) is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost, but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

SIGNIFICANCE

Quantifying the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and individual infectiousness is key to quantitatively understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Here we developed data-driven within-host models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and by fitting them to clinical data we estimated key within-host viral dynamic parameters. We also developed a mechanistic model for viral transmission and show that the logarithm of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract serves an appropriate surrogate for a person's infectiousness. Using data on how viral load changes during infection, we further evaluated the effectiveness of PCR and antigen-based testing strategies for averting transmission and identifying infected individuals.

Understanding Hepatitis B Virus Dynamics and the Antiviral Effect of Interferon Alpha Treatment in Humanized Chimeric Mice

Whereas the mode of action of lamivudine (LAM) against hepatitis B virus (HBV) is well established, the inhibition mechanism(s) of interferon alpha (IFN-α) is less completely defined. To advance our understanding, we mathematically modeled HBV kinetics during 14-day pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN), LAM, or pegIFN-plus-LAM (pegIFN+LAM) treatment of 39 chronically HBV-infected humanized uPA/SCID chimeric mice. Serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA were measured frequently. We developed a multicompartmental mathematical model and simultaneously fit it to the serum and intracellular HBV DNA data. Unexpectedly, even in the absence of an adaptive immune response, a biphasic decline in serum HBV DNA and intracellular HBV DNA was observed in response to all treatments. Kinetic analysis and modeling indicate that the first phase represents inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis and secretion, which was similar under all treatments with an overall mean efficacy of 98%. In contrast, there were distinct differences in HBV decline during the second phase, which was accounted for in the model by a time-dependent inhibition of intracellular HBV DNA synthesis, with the steepest decline observed during pegIFN+LAM treatment (1.28/day) and the slowest (0.1/day) during pegIFN monotherapy. Reminiscent of observations in patients treated with pegIFN and/or LAM, a biphasic HBV decline was observed in treated humanized mice in the absence of an adaptive immune response. Interestingly, combination treatment did not increase the initial inhibition of HBV production but rather enhanced second-phase decline, providing insight into the dynamics of HBV treatment response and the mode of action of IFN-α against HBV. IMPORTANCE Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a global health care problem, as we lack sufficient curative treatment options. Elucidating the dynamics of HBV infection and treatment response at the molecular level could facilitate the development of novel, more effective HBV antivirals. Currently, the only well-established small animal HBV infection model available is the chimeric uPA/SCID mice with humanized livers; however, the HBV inhibition kinetics under pegylated IFN-α-2a (pegIFN) in this model system have not been determined in sufficient detail. In this study, viral kinetics in 39 humanized mice treated with pegIFN and/or lamivudine were monitored and analyzed using a mathematical modeling approach. We found that the main mode of action of IFN-α is blocking HBV DNA synthesis and that the majority of synthesized HBV DNA is secreted. Our study provides novel insights into HBV DNA dynamics within infected human hepatocytes.

Clinical Implications of Serum Hepatitis B Virus Pregenomic RNA Kinetics in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Antiviral Treatment and Those Achieving HBsAg Loss

Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) pregenomic RNA (pgRNA) is correlated with covalently closed circular DNA. We aimed to investigate the utility of serum HBV pgRNA in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and those achieving HBsAg loss. One hundred and eighty-five patients were enrolled for studying long-term HBV pgRNA kinetics during treatment. Twenty patients achieving HBsAg loss after treatment were enrolled for examining HBV pgRNA kinetics around HBsAg loss. HBV pgRNA significantly decreased in the high baseline HBV pgRNA (≥6 log copies/mL) group but significantly increased in the low baseline HBV pgRNA (<4 log copies/mL) group after 3-month entecavir treatment. Among the 20 patients achieving HBsAg loss, 13 (65%) patients had serum HBV pgRNA higher than the limit of detection (LOD, 1466 copies/mL) when they achieved HBsAg loss. Finally, all 20 patients had HBV pgRNA going below the LOD within 3 years after achieving HBsAg loss. In conclusion, baseline serum HBV pgRNA alone is insufficient for predicting the trajectory of HBV pgRNA. Most patients still had HBV pgRNA higher than the LOD when they achieved HBsAg loss. Further studies on HBV pgRNA kinetics around HBsAg loss would provide an enhanced basis for further applications of HBV pgRNA.

Epidemiology, clinical spectrum, viral kinetics and impact of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific region

COVID-19 has hit the world by surprise, causing substantial mortality and morbidity since 2020. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology, induced impact, viral kinetics and clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region, focusing on regions previously exposed to outbreaks of coronavirus. COVID-19 progressed differently by regions, with some (such as China and Taiwan) featured by one to two epidemic waves and some (such as Hong Kong and South Korea) featured by multiple waves. There has been no consensus on the estimates of important epidemiological time intervals or proportions, such that using them for making inferences should be done with caution. Viral loads of patients with COVID-19 peak in the first week of illness around days 2 to 4 and hence there is very high transmission potential causing community outbreaks. Various strategies such as government-guided and suppress-and-lift strategies, trigger-based/suppression approaches and alert systems have been employed to guide the adoption and easing of control measures. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is a hallmark of COVID-19. Identification and isolation of symptomatic patients alone is not effective in controlling the ongoing outbreaks. However, early, prompt and coordinated enactment predisposed regions to successful disease containment. Mass COVID-19 vaccinations are likely to be the light at the end of the tunnel. There is a need to review what we have learnt in this pandemic and examine how to transfer and improve existing knowledge for ongoing and future epidemics.

Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Treatment Effects for Informed Drug Repurposing

Several repurposed drugs are currently under investigation in the fight against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Candidates are often selected solely by their effective concentrations in vitro, an approach that has largely not lived up to expectations in COVID-19. Cell lines used in in vitro experiments are not necessarily representative of lung tissue. Yet, even if the proposed mode of action is indeed true, viral dynamics in vivo, host response, and concentration-time profiles must also be considered. Here we address the latter issue and describe a model of human SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics with acquired immune response to investigate the dynamic impact of timing and dosing regimens of hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir, ivermectin, artemisinin, and nitazoxanide. We observed greatest benefits when treatments were given immediately at the time of diagnosis. Even interventions with minor antiviral effect may reduce host exposure if timed correctly. Ivermectin seems to be at least partially effective: given on positivity, peak viral load dropped by 0.3-0.6 log units and exposure by 8.8-22.3%. The other drugs had little to no appreciable effect. Given how well previous clinical trial results for hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir are explained by the models presented here, similar strategies should be considered in future drug candidate prioritization efforts.

Adenovirus Viral Kinetics and Mortality in Ex Vivo T Cell-Depleted Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients With Adenovirus Infection From a Single Center

BACKGROUND

We report on predictors of adenovirus (ADV) viremia and correlation of ADV viral kinetics with mortality in ex vivo T-cell depleted (TCD) hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT).

METHODS

T cell-depleted HCT recipients from January 1, 2012 through September 30, 2018 were prospectively monitored for ADV in the plasma through Day (D) +100 posttransplant or for 16 weeks after the onset of ADV viremia. Adenovirus viremia was defined as ≥2 consecutive viral loads (VLs) ≥1000 copies/mL through D +100. Time-averaged area under the curve (AAUC) or peak ADV VL through 16 weeks after onset of ADV viremia were explored as predictors of mortality in Cox models.

RESULTS

Of 586 patients (adult 81.7%), 51 (8.7%) developed ADV viremia by D +100. Age <18 years, recipient cytomegalovirus seropositivity, absolute lymphocyte count <300 cells/µL at D +30, and acute graft-versus-host disease were predictors of ADV viremia in multivariate models. Fifteen (29%) patients with ADV viremia died by D +180; 8 of 15 (53%) died from ADV. Peak ADV VL (hazard ratio [HR], 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-3.33) and increasing AAUC (HR, 2.95; 95% CI, 1.83-4.75) correlated with mortality at D +180.

CONCLUSIONS

In TCD HCT, peak ADV VL and ADV AAUC correlated with mortality at D +180. Our data support the potential utility of ADV viral kinetics as endpoints in clinical trials of ADV therapies.

SARS-CoV-2 Viability on 16 Common Indoor Surface Finish Materials

AIM

This study investigated the stability of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on 16 common environmental surface materials.

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 is the causative agent of severe coronavirus disease, a significant public health concern that quickly led to a pandemic. Contamination of environmental surface materials is of concern, with previous studies identifying long-term detection of infectious particles on surfaces. These contaminated surfaces create an increased risk for contact transmission.

METHODS

Surface materials were inoculated with 10,000 plaque forming units and samples were collected 4, 8, 12, 24, 30, 48, and 168 hours post infection (hpi). Viral titers were determined for each sample and time point using plaque assays. Nonparametric modeling utilized the Turnbull algorithm for interval-censored data. Maximum likelihood estimates for the survival curve were calculated. Parametric proportional hazards regression models for interval censored data were used to explore survival time across the surface materials.

RESULTS

There was a sharp decline in recoverable virus after 4 hpi for all tested surfaces. By 12 hpi, infectious SARS-CoV-2 was recoverable from only four surfaces; and by 30 hr, the virus was recoverable from only one surface. There were differences in survival curves based on the materials although some groups of materials are similar, both statistically and practically.

CONCLUSIONS

While very low amounts of infectious SARS-CoV-2 are recoverable over time, there remains a risk of viral transmission by surface contamination in indoor environments. Individuals and institutions must follow appropriate procedures to decontaminate indoor environment and increase diligence for hand hygiene and personal protective equipment.

A transient early HBV-DNA increase during PEG-IFNα therapy of hepatitis D indicates loss of infected cells and is associated with HDV-RNA and HBsAg reduction

HBV-DNA levels are low or even undetectable in the majority HDV-infected patients. The impact of PEG-IFNα on HBV-DNA kinetics in HDV-infected patients has not been studied in detail. We analysed data of a prospective treatment trial where 120 HDV-RNA-positive patients were randomized to receive PEG-IFNα-2a plus tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate (PEG-IFNα/TDF, n = 59) or placebo (PEG-IFNα/PBO; n = 61) for 96 weeks. At week 96, HBV-DNA was still quantifiable in 71% of PEG-IFNα/PBO-treated patients but also in 76% of PEG-IFNα/TDF-treated patients, despite low HBV-DNA baseline values. Surprisingly, a transient HBV-DNA increase between weeks 12 and 36 was observed in 12 in PEG-IFNα/TDF-treated and 12 PEG-IFNα/PBO-treated patients. This increase was positively associated with HBsAg loss [(P = 0.049, odds ratio (OR) 5.1] and HDV-RNA suppression (P = 0.007, OR 4.1) at week 96. Biochemical markers of cell death (M30 and ALT) were higher during the HBV-DNA peak but no distinct systemic immune pattern could be observed by screening 91 soluble inflammatory markers. In conclusion, an early increase in HBV-DNA during PEG-IFNα-2a therapy occurred in more than 20% of patients, even in TDF-treated patients. This transient HBV-DNA rise may indicate PEG-IFNα-induced cell death and lead to long-term HDV-RNA suppression and HBsAg loss.

What drives the dynamics of HBV RNA during treatment?

Hepatitis B virus RNA (HBV RNA)-containing particles are encapsidated pre-genomic RNA (pgRNA) detectable in chronically infected patients in addition to virions (HBV DNA) that have been suggested as a marker of the treatment efficacy. This makes promising the use of core protein allosteric modulators, such as RG7907, which disrupt the nucleocapsid assembly and profoundly reduce HBV RNA. Here, we developed a multiscale model of HBV extending the standard viral dynamic models to analyse the kinetics of HBV DNA and HBV RNA in 35 patients treated with RG7907 for 28 days. We compare the predictions with those obtained in patients treated with the nucleotide analog tenofovir. RG7907 blocked 99.3% of pgRNA encapsidation (range: 92.1%-99.9%) which led to a decline of both HBV DNA and HBV RNA. As a consequence of its mode of action, the first phase of decline of HBV RNA was rapid, uncovering the clearance of viral particles with half-life of 45 min. In contrast, HBV DNA decline was predicted to be less rapid, due to the continuous secretion of already formed viral capsids (t_1/2  = 17 ± 6 h). After few days, both markers declined at the same rate, which was attributed to the loss of infected cells (t_1/2  ≅ 6 ± 0.8 days). By blocking efficiently RNA reverse transcription but not its encapsidation, nucleotide analog in contrast was predicted to lead to a transient accumulation of HBV RNA both intracellularly and extracellularly. The model brings a conceptual framework for understanding the differences between HBV DNA and HBV RNA dynamics. Integration of HBV RNA in viral dynamic models may be helpful to better quantify the treatment effect, especially in viral-suppressed patients where HBV DNA is no longer detectable.

Using in silico viral kinetic models to guide therapeutic strategies during a pandemic: An example in SARS-CoV-2

AIMS

We propose the use of in silico mathematical models to provide insights that optimize therapeutic interventions designed to effectively treat respiratory infection during a pandemic. A modelling and simulation framework is provided using SARS-CoV-2 as an example, considering applications for both treatment and prophylaxis.

METHODS

A target cell-limited model was used to quantify the viral infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a pooled population of 105 infected patients. Parameter estimates from the resulting model were used to simulate and compare the impact of various interventions against meaningful viral load endpoints.

RESULTS

Robust parameter estimates were obtained for the basic reproduction number, viral release rate and infected-cell mortality from the infection model. These estimates were informed by the largest dataset currently available for SARS-CoV-2 viral time course. The utility of this model was demonstrated using simulations, which hypothetically introduced inhibitory or stimulatory drug mechanisms at various target sites within the viral life-cycle. We show that early intervention is crucial to achieving therapeutic benefit when monotherapy is administered. In contrast, combination regimens of two or three drugs may provide improved outcomes if treatment is initiated late. The latter is relevant to SARS-CoV-2, where the period between infection and symptom onset is relatively long.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of in silico models can provide viral load predictions that can rationalize therapeutic strategies against an emerging viral pathogen.

Distinct Cytokine Profiles Correlate with Disease Severity and Outcome in Longitudinal Studies of Acute Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis D Virus Infection in Chimpanzees

Historical studies conducted in chimpanzees gave us the opportunity to investigate the basis for the different severities of liver damage and disease outcome associated with infection with wild-type hepatitis B virus (HBV) versus a precore HBV mutant, HBV/hepatitis D virus (HDV) coinfection, and HDV superinfection. Weekly samples from 9 chimpanzees were studied for immune responses by measuring plasma levels of 29 cytokines in parallel with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and viral kinetics. Comparison of classic acute hepatitis B (AHB) with severe or progressive AHB and HBV/HDV coinfection or superinfection identified distinct cytokine profiles. Classic AHB (mean ALT peak, 362 IU/liter) correlated with an early and significant induction of interferon alpha-2 (IFN-α2), IFN-γ, interleukin-12 p70 (IL-12 p70), and IL-17A. In contrast, these cytokines were virtually undetectable in severe AHB (mean ALT peak, 1,335 IU/liter), characterized by significant elevations of IL-10, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), and MIP-1β. In progressive AHB (mean ALT peak, 166 IU/liter), there was a delayed and lower-magnitude induction of cytokines. The ALT peak was also delayed (mean, 23.5 weeks) compared to those of classic (13.5 weeks) and severe AHB (7.5 weeks). HBV/HDV coinfection correlated with significantly lower levels of IFN-α2, IFN-γ, and IL-17A, associated with the presence of multiple proinflammatory cytokines, including IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, and IL-15. Conversely, HDV superinfection induced the highest ALT peak (1,910 IU/liter) and was associated with a general suppression of cytokines. Our data demonstrate that the most severe liver damage, caused by an HBV precore mutant and HDV, correlated with restricted cytokine expression and lack of Th1 response, raising the question of whether these viruses are directly cytopathic.IMPORTANCE Studies performed in chimpanzees at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) demonstrated a significant difference in ALT levels during acute hepatitis of different viral etiologies, with a hierarchy in the extent of liver damage according to the infecting virus: the highest level was in HDV superinfection, followed by infection with a precore HBV mutant, HBV/HDV coinfection, and, lastly, wild-type HBV infection. Our study demonstrates that both the virus and host are important in disease pathogenesis and offers new insights into their roles. We found that distinct cytokine profiles were associated with disease severity and clinical outcome. In particular, resolution of classic acute hepatitis B (AHB) correlated with a predominant Th1 response, whereas HBV/HDV coinfection showed a predominant proinflammatory response. Severe AHB and HDV superinfection showed a restricted cytokine profile and no evidence of Th1 response. The lack of cytokines associated with adaptive T-cell responses toward the precore HBV mutant and HDV superinfection argues in favor of a direct cytopathic effect of these viruses.

Asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review

Background and Purpose

Many of the statutes comprising the shelter-in-place and phased-reopening orders are centered around minimizing asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. Assumptions about the presence and relative importance of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission are based on case reports, the failing of quarantine measures aimed at sequestering ill patients, viral dynamic studies suggesting SARS-CoV-2 production peaks before symptoms appear, and modeling evidence that calculates serial interval between successive generations of infection. In aggregate, these data offer compelling evidence of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission, but individually these studies have notable shortcomings that undermine their conclusions. The purpose of this review is to discuss the literature of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission, highlight limitations of recent studies, and propose experiments that, if conducted, would provide a more definitive analysis of the relative role of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission in the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of literature on PubMed using search filters that relate to asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission as well as serial interval and viral dynamics. We focused on studies that provided primary clinical data.

Results

34 studies were eligible for inclusion in this systematic review: 11 case reports pertaining to asymptomatic transmission, 9 viral kinetic studies, 13 serial interval studies, and 1 study with viral kinetics and serial interval.

Conclusion

Different approaches to determining the presence and prevalence of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission have notable shortcomings, which were highlighted in this review and limit our ability to draw definitive conclusions. Conducting high quality studies with the aim of understanding the relative role of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission is instrumental to developing the most informed policies on reopening our cities, states, and countries.

Modeling Challenges of Ebola Virus-Host Dynamics during Infection and Treatment

Mathematical modeling of Ebola virus (EBOV)-host dynamics during infection and treatment in vivo is in its infancy due to few studies with frequent viral kinetic data, lack of approved antiviral therapies, and limited insight into the timing of EBOV infection of cells and tissues throughout the body. Current in-host mathematical models simplify EBOV infection by assuming a single homogeneous compartment of infection. In particular, a recent modeling study assumed the liver as the largest solid organ targeted by EBOV infection and predicted that nearly all cells become refractory to infection within seven days of initial infection without antiviral treatment. We compared our observations of EBOV kinetics in multiple anatomic compartments and hepatocellular injury in a critically ill patient with Ebola virus disease (EVD) with this model's predictions. We also explored the model's predictions, with and without antiviral therapy, by recapitulating the model using published inputs and assumptions. Our findings highlight the challenges of modeling EBOV-host dynamics and therapeutic efficacy and emphasize the need for iterative interdisciplinary efforts to refine mathematical models that might advance understanding of EVD pathogenesis and treatment.

Ribavirin facilitates early viral kinetics in chronic hepatitis C patients receiving daclatasvir/asunaprevir

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Ribavirin (RBV) remains crucial in difficult-to-cure chronic hepatitis C patients receiving directly acting antivirals (DAAs). The current study aimed to address whether RBV enhanced early viral kinetics in patients with DAAs.

METHODS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype-1b patients were allocated to daclatasvir/asunaprevir +weight-based RBV (1000-1200 mg/day) for 12-24 weeks. HCV RNA levels were compared at day 1, week 1, week 2, and week 4 of treatment.

RESULTS

The sustained virological response rate was 100% (67/67) and 96.7% (59/61) in the RBV and non-RBV group, respectively. The HCV RNA levels at treatment week 2 (W2) were significantly lower in the RBV group than in the non-RBV group (0.42 ± 0.81 log IU/mL vs 0.79 ± 1.03 log IU/mL, P = 0.04). Among the intermediate responders who remained to have detectable RNA after W1 of treatment, patients with RBV had a significantly higher rate of undetectable HCV RNA (71.4% vs 36.0%, P = 0.003) and lower HCV RNA level at W2 (0.55 ± 0.89 log IU/mL vs 1.32 ± 1.04 log IU/mL, P = 0.001). A more significant magnitude of HCV RNA reduction was also noted from baseline to day 1 (3.15 ± 0.38 log IU/mL vs 2.80 ± 0.70 log IU/mL, P = 0.009) and W1 to W2 (1.40 ± 0.65 log IU/mL vs 0.88 ± 0.78 log IU/mL, P = 0.007) in the RBV group compared to the non-RBV group among the intermediate responders. Logistic regression analysis revealed that adding RBV independently predicted undetectable HCV RNA at W2 (odds ratio/confidence interval: 4.74/1.54-14.57, P = 0.007) in the intermediate responders.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding RBV to DAAs improved early viral kinetic, in particular, for intermediate responders.

Mathematical modelling identifies the role of adaptive immunity as a key controller of respiratory syncytial virus in cotton rats

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common virus that can have varying effects ranging from mild cold-like symptoms to mortality depending on the age and immune status of the individual. We combined mathematical modelling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with measurement of RSV infection kinetics in primary well-differentiated human bronchial epithelial cultures in vitro and in immunocompetent and immunosuppressed cotton rats to glean mechanistic details that underlie RSV infection kinetics in the lung. Quantitative analysis of viral titre kinetics in our mathematical model showed that the elimination of infected cells by the adaptive immune response generates unique RSV titre kinetic features including a faster timescale of viral titre clearance than viral production, and a monotonic decrease in the peak RSV titre with decreasing inoculum dose. Parameter estimation in the ODE model using a nonlinear mixed effects approach revealed a very low rate (average single-cell lifetime > 10 days) of cell lysis by RSV before the adaptive immune response is initiated. Our model predicted negligible changes in the RSV titre kinetics at early times post-infection (less than 5 dpi) but a slower decay in RSV titre in immunosuppressed cotton rats compared to that in non-suppressed cotton rats at later times (greater than 5 dpi) in silico. These predictions were in excellent agreement with the experimental results. Our combined approach quantified the importance of the adaptive immune response in suppressing RSV infection in cotton rats, which could be useful in testing RSV vaccine candidates.

Efficacy of sofosbuvir as treatment for yellow fever: protocol for a randomised controlled trial in Brazil (SOFFA study)

INTRODUCTION

An ongoing outbreak of yellow fever (YF) has been reported in Brazil with 1261 confirmed cases and 409 deaths since July 2017. To date, there is no specific treatment available for YF. Recently published papers describing in vitro and animal models suggest a potential effect of antiviral drugs (approved for the treatment of hepatitis virus) against flaviviruses, including YF. The primary aim of this study is to analyse the effect of sofosbuvir on viral kinetics and clinical outcomes among patients presenting with YF. This is a multicentre open-label randomised controlled trial with 1:1 individual allocation, stratified by severity and by recruiting centre.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Adults with suspected or confirmed YF infection and symptoms lasting up to 15 days are screened. Eligible and consenting patients are randomised to receive oral sofosbuvir 400 mg daily for 10 days or to receive standard clinical care. Viral kinetics are measured daily and the reduction in YF plasma viral load from the sample at inclusion to 72 hours after randomisation will be compared between active and control groups. Clinical outcomes include severity meeting criteria for intensive care support, liver transplantation, in-hospital mortality and mortality within 60 days.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained at the participating sites and at the national research ethics committee (CAAE 82673018.6.1001.0068). The trial has been submitted for ethical approval at additional potential recruiting centres. Results of the study will be published in journals and presented at scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Brazilian Clinical Trials Registry (RBR-93dp9n).

Plasma Hepatitis E Virus Kinetics in Solid Organ Transplant Patients Receiving Ribavirin

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection causes chronic hepatitis in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. Antiviral therapy consists of three months of ribavirin, although response rates are not optimal. We characterized plasma HEV kinetic patterns in 41 SOT patients during ribavirin therapy. After a median pharmacological delay of three (range: 0-21) days, plasma HEV declined from a median baseline level of 6.12 (3.53-7.45) log copies/mL in four viral kinetic patterns: (i) monophasic (n = 18), (ii) biphasic (n = 13), (iii) triphasic (n = 8), and (iv) flat-partial response (n = 2). The mean plasma HEV half-life was estimated to be 2.0 ± 0.96 days. Twenty-five patients (61%) had a sustained virological response (SVR) 24 weeks after completion of therapy. Viral kinetic patterns (i)-(iii) were not associated with baseline characteristics or outcome of therapy. A flat-partial response was associated with treatment failure. All patients with a log concentration decrease of plasma HEV at day seven of >15% from baseline achieved SVR. In conclusion, viral kinetic modeling of plasma HEV under ribavirin therapy showed, for the first time, four distinct kinetic profiles, a median pharmacologic delay of three days, and an estimated HEV half-life of two days. Viral kinetic patterns were not associated with response to therapy, with the exception of a flat-partial response.

Interferon at the cellular, individual, and population level in hepatitis C virus infection: Its role in the interferon-free treatment era

The advent of powerful direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) has revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C. DAAs cure nearly all patients with short duration, oral treatments. Significant efforts are now underway to optimize DAA-based treatments. We discuss the potential role of interferon in this optimization. Clinical studies present compelling evidence that DAAs perform better in treatment-naive individuals than in individuals who previously failed treatment with interferon, a surprising correlation because interferon and DAAs are thought to act independently. Recent mathematical models explore a mechanistic hypothesis underlying this correlation. The hypothesis invokes the action of interferon at the cellular, individual, and population levels. Strong interferon responses prevent the productive infection of cells, reduce viral replication, and impede the development of resistance to DAAs in infected individuals and improve cure rates elicited by DAAs in treated populations. The models develop descriptions of these processes, integrate them into a comprehensive framework, and capture clinical data quantitatively, providing a successful test of the hypothesis. Individuals with strong endogenous interferon responses thus present a promising subpopulation for reducing DAA treatment durations. This review discusses the conceptual advances made by the models, highlights the new insights they unravel, and examines their applicability to optimize DAA-based treatments.

Natural history, dynamics, and ecology of human papillomaviruses in genital infections of young women: protocol of the PAPCLEAR cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are responsible for one-third of all cancers caused by infections. Most HPV studies focus on chronic infections and cancers, and we know little about the early stages of the infection. Our main objective is to better understand the course and natural history of cervical HPV infections in healthy, unvaccinated and vaccinated, young women, by characterising the dynamics of various infection-related populations (virus, epithelial cells, vaginal microbiota and immune effectors). Another objective is to analyse HPV diversity within hosts, and in the study population, in relation to co-factors (lifestyle characteristics, vaccination status, vaginal microbiota, human genetics).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The PAPCLEAR study is a single center longitudinal study following 150 women, aged 18-25 years, for up to 2 years. Visits occur every 2 or 4 months (depending on HPV status) during which several variables are measured, such as behaviours (via questionnaires), vaginal pH, HPV presence and viral load (via qPCR), local concentrations of cytokines (via MesoScale Discovery technology) and immune cells (via flow cytometry). Additional analyses are outsourced, such as titration of circulating anti-HPV antibodies, vaginal microbiota sequencing (16S and ITS1 loci) and human genotyping. To increase the statistical power of the epidemiological arm of the study, an additional 150 women are screened cross-sectionally. Finally, to maximise the resolution of the time series, participants are asked to perform weekly self-samples at home. Statistical analyses will involve classical tools in epidemiology, genomics and virus kinetics, and will be performed or coordinated by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) in Montpellier.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Comité de Protection des Personnes Sud Méditerranée I (reference number 2016-A00712-49); by the Comité Consultatif sur le Traitement de l'Information en matière de Recherche dans le domaine de la Santé (reference number 16.504); by the Commission Nationale Informatique et Libertés (reference number MMS/ABD/AR1612278, decision number DR-2016-488) and by the Agence Nationale de Sécurité du Médicament et des Produits de Santé (reference 20160072000007). Results will be published in preprint servers, peer-reviewed journals and disseminated through conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02946346; Pre-results.

Acute hepatitis B virus infection in humanized chimeric mice has multiphasic viral kinetics

Chimeric urokinase type plasminogen activator (uPA)/severely severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice reconstituted with humanized livers are useful for studying hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the absence of an adaptive immune response. However, the detailed characterization of HBV infection kinetics necessary to enable in-depth mechanistic studies in this in vivo HBV infection model is lacking. To characterize HBV kinetics post-inoculation (p.i.) to steady state, 42 mice were inoculated with HBV. Serum HBV DNA was frequently measured from 1 minute to 63 days p.i. Total intrahepatic HBV DNA, HBV covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA), and HBV RNA was measured in a subset of mice at 2, 4, 6, 10, and 13 weeks p.i. HBV half-life (t_1/2 ) was estimated using a linear mixed-effects model. During the first 6 hours p.i., serum HBV declined in repopulated uPA/SCID mice with a t_1/2 = 62 minutes (95% confidence interval [CI] = 59-67). Thereafter, viral decline slowed followed by a 2-day lower plateau. Subsequent viral amplification was multiphasic with an initial mean doubling time of t₂ = 8 ± 3 hours followed by an interim plateau before prolonged amplification (t₂ = 2 ± 0.5 days) to a final HBV steady state of 9.3 ± 0.3 log copies (cps)/mL. Serum HBV and intrahepatic HBV DNA were positively correlated (R² = 0.98).

CONCLUSION

HBV infection in uPA/SCID chimeric mice is highly dynamic despite the absence of an adaptive immune response. Serum HBV t_1/2 in humanized uPA/SCID mice was estimated to be ∼1 hour regardless of inoculum size. The HBV acute infection kinetics presented here is an important step in characterizing this experimental model system so that it can be effectively used to elucidate the dynamics of the HBV life cycle and thus possibly reveal effective antiviral drug targets. (Hepatology 2018).

Mathematical Analysis of Viral Replication Dynamics and Antiviral Treatment Strategies: From Basic Models to Age-Based Multi-Scale Modeling

Viral infectious diseases are a global health concern, as is evident by recent outbreaks of the middle east respiratory syndrome, Ebola virus disease, and re-emerging zika, dengue, and chikungunya fevers. Viral epidemics are a socio-economic burden that causes short- and long-term costs for disease diagnosis and treatment as well as a loss in productivity by absenteeism. These outbreaks and their socio-economic costs underline the necessity for a precise analysis of virus-host interactions, which would help to understand disease mechanisms and to develop therapeutic interventions. The combination of quantitative measurements and dynamic mathematical modeling has increased our understanding of the within-host infection dynamics and has led to important insights into viral pathogenesis, transmission, and disease progression. Furthermore, virus-host models helped to identify drug targets, to predict the treatment duration to achieve cure, and to reduce treatment costs. In this article, we review important achievements made by mathematical modeling of viral kinetics on the extracellular, intracellular, and multi-scale level for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Hepatitis C Virus, Influenza A Virus, Ebola Virus, Dengue Virus, and Zika Virus. Herein, we focus on basic mathematical models on the population scale (so-called target cell-limited models), detailed models regarding the most important steps in the viral life cycle, and the combination of both. For this purpose, we review how mathematical modeling of viral dynamics helped to understand the virus-host interactions and disease progression or clearance. Additionally, we review different types and effects of therapeutic strategies and how mathematical modeling has been used to predict new treatment regimens.

Influenza Virus Infection Model With Density Dependence Supports Biphasic Viral Decay

Mathematical models that describe infection kinetics help elucidate the time scales, effectiveness, and mechanisms underlying viral growth and infection resolution. For influenza A virus (IAV) infections, the standard viral kinetic model has been used to investigate the effect of different IAV proteins, immune mechanisms, antiviral actions, and bacterial coinfection, among others. We sought to further define the kinetics of IAV infections by infecting mice with influenza A/PR8 and measuring viral loads with high frequency and precision over the course of infection. The data highlighted dynamics that were not previously noted, including viral titers that remain elevated for several days during mid-infection and a sharp 4–5 log₁₀ decline in virus within 1 day as the infection resolves. The standard viral kinetic model, which has been widely used within the field, could not capture these dynamics. Thus, we developed a new model that could simultaneously quantify the different phases of viral growth and decay with high accuracy. The model suggests that the slow and fast phases of virus decay are due to the infected cell clearance rate changing as the density of infected cells changes. To characterize this model, we fit the model to the viral load data, examined the parameter behavior, and connected the results and parameters to linear regression estimates. The resulting parameters and model dynamics revealed that the rate of viral clearance during resolution occurs 25 times faster than the clearance during mid-infection and that small decreases to this rate can significantly prolong the infection. This likely reflects the high efficiency of the adaptive immune response. The new model provides a well-characterized representation of IAV infection dynamics, is useful for analyzing and interpreting viral load dynamics in the absence of immunological data, and gives further insight into the regulation of viral control.

Hepatic Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics With Ombitasvir/Paritaprevir/Ritonavir Plus Dasabuvir Treatment and Variable Ribavirin Dosage

Background

It is unknown whether ribavirin (RBV) coadministration modifies the early rate of decline of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA in the liver versus plasma compartments, specifically.

Methods

This partially randomized, open-label, phase 2 study enrolled treatment-naive, noncirrhotic patients with HCV genotype 1a. Patients were randomized 1:1 into Arms A and B, and then enrolled in Arm C. Patients received ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir plus dasabuvir for 12 weeks with either: no RBV for the first 2 weeks followed by weight-based dosing thereafter (Arm A), weight-based RBV for all 12 weeks (Arm B), or low-dose RBV (600 mg) once daily for all 12 weeks. Fine needle aspiration (FNA) was used to determine HCV RNA decline within liver.

Results

Baseline HCV RNA was higher and declined more rapidly in plasma than liver; however, RBV dosing did not impact either median plasma or liver HCV RNA decline during the first 2 weeks of treatment. Liver-to-plasma drug concentrations were variable over time. The most common adverse event was pain associated with FNA.

Conclusions

Coadministration of RBV had minimal visible impact on the plasma or liver kinetics of HCV RNA decline during the first 2 weeks of treatment, regardless of RBV dosing.

25-Hydroxy vitamin D suppresses hepatitis C virus replication and contributes to rapid virological response of treatment efficacy

AIM

25-Hydroxy vitamin D (Vit D) plays a role in treatment outcomes in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We aimed to clarify whether HCV replication is inhibited by Vit D in HCV replicon cells. Clinical implication was assessed for rapid virological response (RVR) and sustained virological response (SVR) among those patients receiving antiviral therapy.

METHODS

Cell survival and viral loads were observed in Con1 (genotype 1b) and J6/JFH (genotype 2a) cells treated with different doses of Vit D. Three groups of patients with different treatment responses were recruited to assess their Vit D levels: group A, RVR-/SVR-; group B, RVR+/SVR-; and group C, RVR+/SVR+.

RESULTS

The viral load of Con1 cells decreased by 69%, 80%, and 86% following treatment with 1 μM, 5 μM, and 10 μM Vit D, respectively (P < 0.0001). In J6/JFH cells, it decreased by 12%, 55%, and 80.5% following treatment with 1 μM, 5 μM, and 10 μM Vit D, respectively (P < 0.0001). There was a significant increase of Vit D between chronic hepatitis C groups, ranging from 4.4 ± 5.6 ng/mL in group A (n = 44), to 17.2 ± 11.6 ng/mL in group B (n = 44), and 32.5 ± 37.5 ng/mL of group C (n = 44) (P < 0.001). Advanced fibrosis (odds ratio = 0.13, 95% confidence interval = 0.04-0.41, P < 0.001) and Vit D deficiency (<10 ng/mL) (odds ratio = 0.11, 95% confidence interval = 0.03-0.43, P = 0.001) were predictive of SVR in the multivariate regression analysis.

CONCLUSION

Vitamin D decreases HCV replication and also contributes to early treatment viral kinetics.

Understanding the within-host dynamics of influenza A virus: from theory to clinical implications

Mathematical models have provided important insights into acute viral dynamics within individual patients. In this paper, we study the simplest target cell-limited models to investigate the within-host dynamics of influenza A virus infection in humans. Despite the biological simplicity of the models, we show how these can be used to understand the severity of the infection and the key attributes of possible immunotherapy and antiviral drugs for the treatment of infection at different times post infection. Through an analytic approach, we derive and estimate simple summary biological quantities that can provide novel insights into the infection dynamics and the definition of clinical endpoints. We focus on nine quantities, including the area under the viral load curve, peak viral load, the time to peak viral load and the level of cell death due to infection. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we fitted the models to data collected from 12 untreated volunteers who participated in two clinical studies that tested the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. Based on the results, we also discuss various difficulties in deriving precise estimates of the parameters, even in the very simple models considered, when experimental data are limited to viral load measures and/or there is a limited number of viral load measurements post infection.

On the Death Rate of Abortively Infected Cells: Estimation from Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection

Progressive T cell depletion during chronic human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) infection is a key mechanism that leads to the development of AIDS. Recent studies have suggested that most T cells in the tissue die through pyroptosis triggered by abortive infection, i.e., infection of resting T cells in which HIV failed to complete reverse transcription. However, the contribution of abortive infection to T cell loss and how quickly abortively infected cells die in vivo, key parameters for a quantitative understanding of T cell population dynamics, are not clear. Here, we infected rhesus macaques with simian-human immunodeficiency viruses (SHIV) and followed the dynamics of both plasma SHIV RNA and total cell-associated SHIV DNA. Fitting mathematical models to the data, we estimate that upon infection a majority of CD4⁺ T cells (approximately 65%, on average) become abortively infected and die at a relatively high rate of 0.27 day^-1 (half-life, 2.6 days). This confirms the importance of abortive infection in driving T cell depletion. Further, we find evidence suggesting that an immune response may be restricting viral infection 1 to 3 weeks after infection. Our study serves as a step forward toward a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving T cell depletion during HIV infection.IMPORTANCE In HIV-infected patients, progressive CD4⁺ T cell loss ultimately leads to the development of AIDS. The mechanisms underlying this T cell loss are not clear. Recent experimental data suggest that the majority of CD4⁺ T cells in tissue die through abortive infection, where the accumulation of incomplete HIV transcripts triggers cell death. To investigate the role of abortive infection in driving CD4⁺ T cell loss in vivo, we infected macaques with simian-human immunodeficiency viruses (SHIV) and followed the viral kinetics of both plasma RNA and cell-associated DNA during infection. Fitting mathematical models, we estimated that a large fraction of infected cells dies through abortive infection and has a half-life of approximately 2.6 days. Our results provide the first in vivo quantitative estimates of parameters characterizing abortive infection and support the notion that abortive infection represents an important mechanism underlying progressive CD4⁺ T cell depletion in vivo.

Epstein-Barr virus-related post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder in solid organ transplant recipients

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) contributes to the pathogenesis of post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) in more than 70% of cases. EBV DNAemia surveillance has been reported to assist in the prevention and treatment of PTLD in hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) recipients. Derived from experience in HSCT and taking into account that PCR-based EBV monitoring techniques are currently available in most solid organ transplant (SOT) centres, there is a great interest in EBV surveillance and prevention of PTLD in SOT recipients. In the present document we have tried to address from a practical perspective different important topics regarding the prevention and management of EBV-related PTLD in SOT. To this end, available information on SOT was analysed and combined with potentially useful data from HSCT and expert observations. The document is therefore structured according to different specific questions, each of them culminating in a consensus opinion of the panel of European experts, grading the answers according to internationally recognized levels of evidence. The addressed issues were grouped under the following topics. (i) Timing and epidemiological data of PTLD. Prophylaxis guided by clinical risk factors of early and late PTLD in SOT. (ii) Relationship of EBV DNAemia load monitoring and the development of PTLD in solid organ transplant recipients. (iii) Monitoring of EBV DNAemia after SOT. Which population should be monitored? What is the optimal timing of the monitoring? (iv) Management of SOT recipients with persistent and/or increasing EBV DNAemia.

Sustained virological response with intravenous silibinin: individualized IFN-free therapy via real-time modelling of HCV kinetics

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Intravenous silibinin (SIL) is a potent antiviral agent against hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype-1. In this proof of concept case-study we tested: (i) whether interferon-alfa (IFN)-free treatment with SIL plus ribavirin (RBV) can achieve sustained virological response (SVR); (ii) whether SIL is safe and feasible for prolonged duration of treatment and (iii) whether mathematical modelling of early on-treatment HCV kinetics can guide duration of therapy to achieve SVR.

METHODS

A 44 year-old female HCV-(genotype-1)-infected patient who developed severe psychiatric adverse events to a previous course of pegIFN+RBV, initiated combination treatment with 1200 mg/day of SIL, 1200 mg/day of RBV and 6000 u/day vitamin D. Blood samples were collected frequently till week 4, thereafter every 1-12 weeks until the end of therapy. The standard biphasic mathematical model with time-varying SIL effectiveness was used to predict the duration of therapy to achieve SVR.

RESULTS

Based on modelling the observed viral kinetics during the first 3 weeks of treatment, SVR was predicted to be achieved within 34 weeks of therapy. Provided with this information, the patient agreed to complete 34 weeks of treatment. IFN-free treatment with SIL+RBV was feasible, safe and achieved SVR (week-33).

CONCLUSIONS

We report, for the first time, the use of real-time mathematical modelling of HCV kinetics to individualize duration of IFN-free therapy and to empower a patient to participate in shared decision making regarding length of treatment. SIL-based individualized therapy provides a treatment option for patients who do not respond to or cannot receive other HCV agents and should be further validated.

Effects of ribavirin monotherapy on the viral population in patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1: direct sequencing and pyrosequencing of the HCV regions

Ribavirin remains essential to chronic hepatitis C treatment. This paper investigates the influence of ribavirin priming to steady state before combined pegylated-interferon/ribavirin treatment on viral kinetics, ribavirin trough concentrations, genetic variability within HCV-core, -NS5B and -NS5A, and response to antiviral therapy. A prospective cohort study was made of 27 chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 naïve patients who received four weeks of ribavirin followed by pegIFN-α-2a/ribavirin for 48 weeks (Group A). The results obtained were compared with those for a control/historical group (Group B). In addition, direct sequencing and pyrosequencing were applied to determine ribavirin monotherapy-induced sequence changes. The rapid, early, and sustained virological response values obtained were 48%, 89%, and 52%, respectively, in Group A, and 52%, 90%, and 52% in Group B (P > 0.05). In the four-week combined treatment, the Group A patients showed a greater decrease in HCV-RNA (2.3 log10  IU/ml vs. 1.2 log10  IU/ml; P = 0.04), lower alanine aminotransferase levels (23.5 ± 1.33 U/L vs. 60.11 ± 18 U/L; P < 0.001) and higher mean ribavirin trough concentrations (3.28 ± 1.26 mg/L vs. 1.74 ± 0.7 mg/L; P = 0.001). No general increase in rates of nucleotide substitutions in the ribavirin monotherapy-treated patients was observed in NS5B, ISDR, or PKRbd, but there was a decrease in silent mutations in the HCV core (P = 0.04). This result was confirmed by pyrosequencing in the NS5A region. It is concluded that the ribavirin priming combined treatment with pegIFN-α-2a does not improve sustained virological response rates in HCV genotype 1 naïve infected patients. However, the greater reductions in viral load and alanine aminotransferase levels, together with the higher ribavirin trough concentration values obtained, could reflect the greater effectiveness of the treatment. Ribavirin does not have a mutagenic effect on the virus in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

In routine clinical practice, few physicians use early viral kinetics to guide HCV dual therapy treatment decisions

BACKGROUND & AIMS

PROPHESYS is a large, multinational, non-interventional prospective cohort study of chronic hepatitis C patients treated with peginterferon alfa/ribavirin. This subanalysis assesses rates of premature treatment discontinuation stratified by on-treatment virological response (VR).

METHODS

This PROPHESYS subanalysis is restricted to treatment-naive, hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype (G)1/2/3 mono-infected patients who received peginterferon alfa-2a (40KD)/ribavirin with intended treatment duration of 48 (G1) or 24 weeks (G2/3). Early virological responses were classified into four mutually exclusive categories [rapid VR (RVR), complete early VR (cEVR), partial EVR (pEVR), no RVR/EVR], using standard criteria.

RESULTS

The likelihood for shortening treatment owing to good efficacy was highest among patients with an RVR and HCV RNA≤400 000 IU/ml (G1 10.0%; G2/3 5.8%) whereas for poor efficacy, it was highest in G1 non-RVR/EVR patients with HCV RNA>400 000 IU/ml (56.6%). Factors significantly associated with early treatment discontinuation as a result of good efficacy in G1 patients included RVR vs. no RVR/EVR and, at baseline, lower HCV RNA, lower FIB-4 score, HCV infection via injection drug use. For G2/3 patients, factors included lower baseline HCV RNA and G2 vs. G3 infection. Most patients started with the recommended peginterferon alfa-2a dose, but a high proportion received a higher-than-recommended ribavirin dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite international guidelines, few physicians used early viral kinetics to abbreviate treatment. Therefore, relatively few patients with an RVR and low baseline HCV RNA abbreviated treatment. In addition, there were deviations in ribavirin starting doses, suggesting that physicians tailor treatment according to local guidelines or previous experience.

HCV E1E2-MF59 vaccine in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with PEG-IFNα2a and Ribavirin: a randomized controlled trial

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) vaccines may be able to increase viral clearance in combination with antiviral therapy. We analysed viral dynamics and HCV-specific immune response during retreatment for experienced patients in a phase Ib study with E1E2MF59 vaccine. Seventy-eight genotype 1a/1b patients [relapsers (30), partial responders (16) and nonresponders (32) to interferon-(IFN)/ribavirin-(RBV)] were randomly assigned to vaccine (V:23), Peg-IFNα2a-180-ug/qw and ribavirin 1000-1200-mg/qd for 48 weeks (P/R:25), or their combination (P/R + V:30). Vaccine (100 μg/0.5 mL) was administered intramuscularly at week 0-4-8-12-24-28-32-36. Neutralizing of binding (NOB) antibodies and lymphocyte proliferation assay (LPA) for E1E2-specific-CD4 + T cells were performed at week 0-12-16-48. Viral kinetics were analysed up to week 16. The vaccine was safe, and a sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved in 4 P/R + V and 2 P/R patients. Higher SVR rates were observed in prior relapsers (P/R + V = 27.3%; P/R = 12.5%). Higher NOB titres and LPA indexes were found at week 12 and 16 in P/R + V as compared to P/R patients (P = 0.023 and 0.025, P = 0.019 and <0.001, respectively). Among the 22 patients with the strongest direct antiviral effects of IFN (ε ≥ 0.800), those treated with P/R + V (10) reached lower HCV-RNA levels (P = 0.026) at week 16. HCV E1E2MF59 vaccine in combination with Peg-IFNα2a + RBV was safe and elicited E1E2 neutralizing antibodies and specific CD4 + T cell proliferation. Upon early response to IFN, vaccinations were associated with an enhanced second phase viral load decline. These results prompt phase II trials in combination with new antiviral therapies.