Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

mtPGS: Leverage multiple correlated traits for accurate polygenic score construction

Accurate polygenic scores (PGSs) facilitate the genetic prediction of complex traits and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Here, we develop a statistical method called multi-trait assisted PGS (mtPGS), which can construct accurate PGSs for a target trait of interest by leveraging multiple traits relevant to the target trait. Specifically, mtPGS borrows SNP effect size similarity information between the target trait and its relevant traits to improve the effect size estimation on the target trait, thus achieving accurate PGSs. In the process, mtPGS flexibly models the shared genetic architecture between the target and the relevant traits to achieve robust performance, while explicitly accounting for the environmental covariance among them to accommodate different study designs with various sample overlap patterns. In addition, mtPGS uses only summary statistics as input and relies on a deterministic algorithm with several algebraic techniques for scalable computation. We evaluate the performance of mtPGS through comprehensive simulations and applications to 25 traits in the UK Biobank, where in the real data mtPGS achieves an average of 0.90%-52.91% accuracy gain compared to the state-of-the-art PGS methods. Overall, mtPGS represents an accurate, fast, and robust solution for PGS construction in biobank-scale datasets.

Challenges in studying the interplay of genes and environment. A study of childhood financial distress moderating genetic predisposition for peak smoking

Smoking is one of the leading causes of preventable disease and death in the U.S., and it is strongly influenced both by genetic predisposition and childhood adversity. Using polygenic indices (PGIs) of predisposition to smoking, we evaluate whether childhood financial distress (CFD; a composite measure of financial adversity) moderates genetic risk in explaining peak-cigarette consumption in adulthood. Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we find a substantial reduction in the relationship between genetic risk and peak smoking for those who did not suffer financial adversity in childhood. Among adult smokers who grew up in high-CFD households, a one standard deviation higher PGI is associated with 2.9 more cigarettes smoked per day at peak. By contrast, among smokers who grew up in low-CFD households, this gradient is reduced by 37 percent (or 1.1 fewer). These results are robust to controlling for a host of prime confounders. By contrast, we find no evidence of interactions between the PGI and typical measures of childhood SES such as parental education - a null result that we replicate in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA). This suggests the role of childhood financial distress in the relationship with peak smoking is distinct from that of low childhood SES, with high CFD potentially reflecting more acute distress than do measures of low childhood SES. Our evidence also suggests low childhood SES is a weaker proxy for acute distress, providing an alternative explanation for the childhood SES null result.

Genome-wide polygenic risk score, cardiometabolic risk factors, and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and cardiometabolic risk factors. However, the magnitude of the genetic predisposition of T2D in the Chinese population remains largely unknown.

METHODS

This study included 93,488 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank, and multiple polygenic risk scores (PRS) were calculated. A common cardiometabolic risk score (CRS) using smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and blood lipids was constructed to investigate the effects of cardiometabolic risk factors on T2D. Furthermore, an equation based on ideal PRS, CRS, and their interaction was established to explore the combined effects on T2D.

RESULTS

An ideally fitting PRS model (variance explained, R2  = 7.6%) was reached based on multiple PRS calculation methods. An additive interaction between PRS and CRS (coefficient = 28%, 95% CI: 0.20-0.36, p < 0.001) was found. The R2 of the T2D predictive model could increase to 8.3% when CRS and the interaction terms of PRS × CRS were considered. In the etiological composition of T2D, the ratio of genetic risk effect, cardiometabolic risk effect, and interaction between genetic and cardiometabolic factors was 67:16:17.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified an ideally fitting PRS model for identifying and predicting the risk of T2D suitable for the Chinese population. The quantified proportional structure of genetic risk factors, cardiometabolic risk factors, and their interaction was detected, which elucidated the critical effect of genetic factors.

Statistical assessment of biomarker replicability using MAJAR method

In the era of precision medicine, many biomarkers have been discovered to be associated with drug efficacy and safety responses, which can be used for patient stratification and drug response prediction. Due to the small sample size and limited power of randomized clinical studies, meta-analysis is usually conducted to aggregate all available studies to maximize the power for identifying prognostic and predictive biomarkers. However, it is often challenging to find an independent study to replicate the discoveries from the meta-analysis (e.g. meta-analysis of pharmacogenomics genome-wide association studies (PGx GWAS)), which seriously limits the potential impacts of the discovered biomarkers. To overcome this challenge, we develop a novel statistical framework, MAJAR (meta-analysis of joint effect associations for biomarker replicability assessment), to jointly test prognostic and predictive effects and assess the replicability of identified biomarkers by implementing an enhanced expectation-maximization algorithm and calculating their posterior-probability-of-replicabilities and Bayesian false discovery rates (Fdr). Extensive simulation studies were conducted to compare the performance of MAJAR and existing methods in terms of Fdr, power, and computational efficiency. The simulation results showed improved statistical power with well-controlled Fdr of MAJAR over existing methods and robustness to outliers under different data generation processes. We further demonstrated the advantages of MAJAR over existing methods by applying MAJAR to the PGx GWAS summary statistics data from a large cardiovascular randomized clinical trial. Compared to testing main effects only, MAJAR identified 12 novel variants associated with the treatment-related low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction from baseline.

Emerging Concepts in Precision Medicine in Axial Spondyloarthritis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA) is among the rheumatology's most heritable complex diseases, yet precision medicine at clinics still needs to be explored. We reviewed the emerging concepts and recent developments in polygenic risk scores, Mendelian randomization, pharmacogenomics, single-cell sequencing, and spatial transcriptomics.

RECENT FINDINGS

Polygenic risk score has resulted in encouraging results with potential diagnostic utility as it appears to outperform current diagnostic tools. Its performance and generalizability vary with ethnicity. Mendelian randomization has elucidated multiple causal associations, particularly between inflammatory bowel disease and AxSpA. Single-cell transcriptomics (particularly scRNA-seq and scATAC-seq) has identified numerous cell types, including synovial and blood immunological cells, to understand the contribution of both innate and adaptative immunity in AxSpA. Current molecular tools provide an exciting opportunity to advance precision medicine for AxSpA patients. However, extensive research and implementation strategies are still required before they can have an impact in the clinic.

A new method for multiancestry polygenic prediction improves performance across diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) increasingly predict complex traits; however, suboptimal performance in non-European populations raise concerns about clinical applications and health inequities. We developed CT-SLEB, a powerful and scalable method to calculate PRSs, using ancestry-specific genome-wide association study summary statistics from multiancestry training samples, integrating clumping and thresholding, empirical Bayes and superlearning. We evaluated CT-SLEB and nine alternative methods with large-scale simulated genome-wide association studies (~19 million common variants) and datasets from 23andMe, Inc., the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, All of Us and UK Biobank, involving 5.1 million individuals of diverse ancestry, with 1.18 million individuals from four non-European populations across 13 complex traits. Results demonstrated that CT-SLEB significantly improves PRS performance in non-European populations compared with simple alternatives, with comparable or superior performance to a recent, computationally intensive method. Moreover, our simulation studies offered insights into sample size requirements and SNP density effects on multiancestry risk prediction.

Combining Polygenic and Proteomic Risk Scores With Clinical Risk Factors to Improve Performance for Diagnosing Absence of Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With de novo Chest Pain

BACKGROUND

Patients with de novo chest pain, referred for evaluation of possible coronary artery disease (CAD), frequently have an absence of CAD resulting in millions of tests not having any clinical impact. The objective of this study was to investigate whether polygenic risk scores and targeted proteomics improve the prediction of absence of CAD in patients with suspected CAD, when added to the PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) minimal risk score (PMRS).

METHODS

Genotyping and targeted plasma proteomics (N=368 proteins) were performed in 1440 patients with symptoms suspected to be caused by CAD undergoing coronary computed tomography angiography. Based on individual genotypes, a polygenic risk score for CAD (PRSCAD) was calculated. The prediction was performed using combinations of PRSCAD, proteins, and PMRS as features in models using stability selection and machine learning.

RESULTS

Prediction of absence of CAD yielded an area under the curve of PRSCAD-model, 0.64±0.03; proteomic-model, 0.58±0.03; and PMRS model, 0.76±0.02. No significant correlation was found between the genetic and proteomic risk scores (Pearson correlation coefficient, -0.04; P=0.13). Optimal predictive ability was achieved by the full model (PRSCAD+protein+PMRS) yielding an area under the curve of 0.80±0.02 for absence of CAD, significantly better than the PMRS model alone (P<0.001). For reclassification purpose, the full model enabled down-classification of 49% (324 of 661) of the 5% to 15% pretest probability patients and 18% (113 of 611) of >15% pretest probability patients.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with chest pain and low-intermediate CAD risk, incorporating targeted proteomics and polygenic risk scores into the risk assessment substantially improved the ability to predict the absence of CAD. Genetics and proteomics seem to add complementary information to the clinical risk factors and improve risk stratification in this large patient group.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT02264717.

Ensembled best subset selection using summary statistics for polygenic risk prediction

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) enhance population risk stratification and advance personalized medicine, yet existing methods face a tradeoff between predictive power and computational efficiency. We introduce ALL-Sum, a fast and scalable PRS method that combines an efficient summary statistic-based L 0 L 2 penalized regression algorithm with an ensembling step that aggregates estimates from different tuning parameters for improved prediction performance. In extensive large-scale simulations across a wide range of polygenicity and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) sample sizes, ALL-Sum consistently outperforms popular alternative methods in terms of prediction accuracy, runtime, and memory usage. We analyze 27 published GWAS summary statistics for 11 complex traits from 9 reputable data sources, including the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, Breast Cancer Association Consortium, and FinnGen, evaluated using individual-level UKBB data. ALL-Sum achieves the highest accuracy for most traits, particularly for GWAS with large sample sizes. We provide ALL-Sum as a user-friendly command-line software with pre-computed reference data for streamlined user-end analysis.

Polygenic risk of major depressive disorder as a risk factor for venous thromboembolism

Major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BD), and schizophrenia (SCZ) are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, including venous thromboembolism (VTE). The reasons for this are complex and include obesity, smoking, and use of hormones and psychotropic medications. Genetic studies have increasingly provided evidence of the shared genetic risk of psychiatric and cardiometabolic illnesses. This study aimed to determine whether a genetic predisposition to MDD, BD, or SCZ is associated with an increased risk of VTE. Genetic correlations using the largest genome-wide genetic meta-analyses summary statistics for MDD, BD, and SCZ (Psychiatric Genetics Consortium) and a recent genome-wide genetic meta-analysis of VTE (INVENT Consortium) demonstrated a positive association between VTE and MDD but not BD or SCZ. The same summary statistics were used to construct polygenic risk scores for MDD, BD, and SCZ in UK Biobank participants of self-reported White British ancestry. These were assessed for impact on self-reported VTE risk (10 786 cases, 285 124 controls), using logistic regression, in sex-specific and sex-combined analyses. We identified significant positive associations between polygenic risk for MDD and the risk of VTE in men, women, and sex-combined analyses, independent of the known risk factors. Secondary analyses demonstrated that this association was not driven by those with lifetime experience of mental illness. Meta-analyses of individual data from 6 additional independent cohorts replicated the sex-combined association. This report provides evidence for shared biological mechanisms leading to MDD and VTE and suggests that, in the absence of genetic data, a family history of MDD might be considered when assessing the risk of VTE.

Evaluating and Improving Health Equity and Fairness of Polygenic Scores

Polygenic scores (PGS) are quantitative metrics for predicting phenotypic values, such as human height or disease status. Some PGS methods require only summary statistics of a relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS) for their score. One such method is Lassosum, which inherits the model selection advantages of Lasso to select a meaningful subset of the GWAS single nucleotide polymorphisms as predictors from their association statistics. However, even efficient scores like Lassosum, when derived from European-based GWAS, are poor predictors of phenotype for subjects of non-European ancestry; that is, they have limited portability to other ancestries. To increase the portability of Lassosum, when GWAS information and estimates of linkage disequilibrium are available for both ancestries, we propose Joint-Lassosum. In the simulation settings we explore, Joint-Lassosum provides more accurate PGS compared with other methods, especially when measured in terms of fairness. Like all PGS methods, Joint-Lassosum requires selection of predictors, which are determined by data-driven tuning parameters. We describe a new approach to selecting tuning parameters and note its relevance for model selection for any PGS. We also draw connections to the literature on algorithmic fairness and discuss how Joint-Lassosum can help mitigate fairness-related harms that might result from the use of PGS scores in clinical settings. While no PGS method is likely to be universally portable, due to the diversity of human populations and unequal information content of GWAS for different ancestries, Joint-Lassosum is an effective approach for enhancing portability and reducing predictive bias.

Genetic Inheritance Models of Non-Syndromic Cleft Lip with or without Palate: From Monogenic to Polygenic

Non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate (NSCL/P) is a prevalent birth defect that affects 1/500-1/1400 live births globally. The genetic basis of NSCL/P is intricate and involves both genetic and environmental factors. In the past few years, various genetic inheritance models have been proposed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of NSCL/P. These models range from simple monogenic inheritance to more complex polygenic inheritance. Here, we present a comprehensive overview of the genetic inheritance model of NSCL/P exemplified by representative genes and regions from both monogenic and polygenic perspectives. We also summarize existing association studies and corresponding loci of NSCL/P within the Chinese population and highlight the potential of utilizing polygenic risk scores for risk stratification of NSCL/P. The potential application of polygenic models offers promising avenues for improved risk assessment and personalized approaches in the prevention and management of NSCL/P individuals.

MUSSEL: Enhanced Bayesian Polygenic Risk Prediction Leveraging Information across Multiple Ancestry Groups

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are now showing promising predictive performance on a wide variety of complex traits and diseases, but there exists a substantial performance gap across different populations. We propose MUSSEL, a method for ancestry-specific polygenic prediction that borrows information in the summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) across multiple ancestry groups. MUSSEL conducts Bayesian hierarchical modeling under a MUltivariate Spike-and-Slab model for effect-size distribution and incorporates an Ensemble Learning step using super learner to combine information across different tuning parameter settings and ancestry groups. In our simulation studies and data analyses of 16 traits across four distinct studies, totaling 5.7 million participants with a substantial ancestral diversity, MUSSEL shows promising performance compared to alternatives. The method, for example, has an average gain in prediction R2 across 11 continuous traits of 40.2% and 49.3% compared to PRS-CSx and CT-SLEB, respectively, in the African Ancestry population. The best-performing method, however, varies by GWAS sample size, target ancestry, underlying trait architecture, and the choice of reference samples for LD estimation, and thus ultimately, a combination of methods may be needed to generate the most robust PRS across diverse populations.

Invited Expert Opinion- Bioinformatic and Limitation Directives to Help Adopt Genetic Addiction Risk Screening and Identify Preaddictive Reward Dysregulation: Required Analytic Evidence to Induce Dopamine Homeostatsis

Addiction, albeit some disbelievers like Mark Lewis [1], is a chronic, relapsing brain disease, resulting in unwanted loss of control over both substance and non- substance behavioral addictions leading to serious adverse consequences [2]. Addiction scientists and clinicians face an incredible challenge in combatting the current opioid and alcohol use disorder (AUD) pandemic throughout the world. Provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that from July 2021-2022, over 100,000 individuals living in the United States (US) died from a drug overdose, and 77,237 of those deaths were related to opioid use [3]. This number is expected to rise, and according to the US Surgeon General it is highly conceivable that by 2025 approximately 165,000 Americans will die from an opioid overdose. Alcohol abuse, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), results in 3 million deaths worldwide every year, which represents 5.3% of all deaths globally [4].

Polygenic scores for social science: Clarification, consensus, and controversy

In this response, I focus on clarifying my arguments, highlighting consensus, and addressing competing views about the utility of polygenic scores (PGSs) for social science. I also discuss an assortment of expansions to my arguments and suggest alternative approaches. I conclude by reiterating the need for caution and appropriate scientific skepticism.

Obesity Prediction in Young Adults from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study: Contribution of Polygenic Risk and Early Life Exposures

We assessed whether adding early life exposures to a model based on polygenic risk score (PRS) improves prediction of obesity risk. We used a birth cohort with data at birth and BMI and waist circumference (WC) measured at age 32. The PRS was composed of SNPs identified in GWAS for BMI. Linear and logistic models were used to explore associations with obesity-related phenotypes. Improvement in prediction was assessed using measures of model discrimination (AUC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). One SD change in PRS was associated with a significant increase in BMI and WC. These associations were slightly attenuated (13.7%-14.2%) with the addition of early life exposures to the model. Also, higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was associated with increase in offspring BMI and WC (p<0.001). For prediction obesity (BMI ≥ 30), the addition of early life exposures to the PRS model significantly increase the AUC from 0.69 to 0.73. At an obesity risk threshold of 15%, the addition of early life exposures to the PRS model provided a significant improvement in reclassification of obesity (NRI, 0.147; 95% CI 0.068-0.225). We conclude that inclusion of early life exposures to a model based on PRS improves obesity risk prediction in an Israeli population-sample.

Genome-wide association study and genomic risk prediction of age-related macular degeneration in Israel

Purpose

The risk of developing age-related macular degeneration(AMD) is influenced by genetic background. In 2016, International AMD Genomics Consortium(IAMDGC) identified 52 risk variants in 34 loci, and a polygenic risk score(PRS) based on these variants was associated with AMD. The Israeli population has a unique genetic composition: Ashkenazi Jewish(AJ), Jewish non-Ashkenazi, and Arab sub-populations. We aimed to perform a genome-wide association study(GWAS) for AMD in Israel, and to evaluate PRSs for AMD.

Methods

For our discovery set, we recruited 403 AMD patients and 256 controls at Hadassah Medical Center. We genotyped all individuals via custom exome chip. We imputed non-typed variants using cosmopolitan and AJ reference panels. We recruited additional 155 cases and 69 controls for validation. To evaluate predictive power of PRSs for AMD, we used IAMDGC summary statistics excluding our study and developed PRSs via either clumping/thresholding or LDpred2.

Results

In our discovery set, 31/34 loci previously reported by the IAMDGC were AMD associated with P<0.05. Of those, all effects were directionally consistent with the IAMDGC and 11 loci had a p-value under Bonferroni-corrected threshold(0.05/34=0.0015). At a threshold of 5x10 -5 , we discovered four suggestive associations in FAM189A1 , IGDCC4 , C7orf50 , and CNTNAP4 . However, only the FAM189A1 variant was AMD associated in the replication cohort after Bonferroni-correction. A prediction model including LDpred2-based PRS and other covariates had an AUC of 0.82(95%CI:0.79-0.85) and performed better than a covariates-only model(P=5.1x10 -9 ).

Conclusions

Previously reported AMD-associated loci were nominally associated with AMD in Israel. A PRS developed based on a large international study is predictive in Israeli populations.

Polygenic scores in cancer

Since the publication of the first genome-wide association study for cancer in 2007, thousands of common alleles that are associated with the risk of cancer have been identified. The relative risk associated with individual variants is small and of limited clinical significance. However, the combined effect of multiple risk variants as captured by polygenic scores (PGSs) may be much greater and therefore provide risk discrimination that is clinically useful. We review the considerable research efforts over the past 15 years for developing statistical methods for PGSs and their application in large-scale genome-wide association studies to develop PGSs for various cancers. We review the predictive performance of these PGSs and the multiple challenges currently limiting the clinical application of PGSs. Despite this, PGSs are beginning to be incorporated into clinical multifactorial risk prediction models to stratify risk in both clinical trials and clinical implementation studies.

Pitfalls of predicting age-related traits by polygenic risk scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are a method increasingly used to capture the combined effect of genome-wide significant variants and those which individually do not show genome-wide significant association but are likely to contribute to the risk of developing diseases. However, their practical use incurs complications and inconsistencies that so far limit their clinical applicability. The aims of the present review are to discuss the PRS for age-related diseases and to highlight pitfalls and limitations of PRS prediction accuracy due to ageing and mortality effects. We argue that the PRS is widely used but the individual's PRS values differ substantially depending on the number of genetic variants included, the discovery GWAS and the method employed to generate them. Moreover, for neurodegenerative disorders, although an individual's genetics do not change with age, the actual score depends on the age of the sample used in the discovery GWAS and is likely to reflect the individual's disease risk at this particular age. Improvement of PRS prediction accuracy for neurodegenerative disorders will come from two sides, both the precision of clinical diagnoses, and a careful attention to the age distribution in the underlying samples and validation of the prediction in longitudinal studies.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores for hypertensive disease during pregnancy can also predict the risk for long-term cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Hypertensive disorders during pregnancy are associated with the risk of long-term cardiovascular disease after pregnancy, but it has not yet been determined whether genetic predisposition for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy can predict the risk for long-term cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the risk for long-term atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease according to polygenic risk scores for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy.

STUDY DESIGN

Among UK Biobank participants, we included European-descent women (n=164,575) with at least 1 live birth. Participants were divided according to genetic risk categorized by polygenic risk scores for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy (low risk, score ≤25th percentile; medium risk, score 25th∼75th percentile; high risk, score >75th percentile), and were evaluated for incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, defined as the new occurrence of one of the following: coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral artery disease.

RESULTS

Among the study population, 2427 (1.5%) had a history of hypertensive disorders during pregnancy, and 8942 (5.6%) developed incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease after enrollment. Women with high genetic risk for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy had a higher prevalence of hypertension at enrollment. After enrollment, women with high genetic risk for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy had an increased risk for incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, including coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and peripheral artery disease, compared with those with low genetic risk, even after adjustment for history of hypertensive disorders during pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

High genetic risk for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy was associated with increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. This study provides evidence on the informative value of polygenic risk scores for hypertensive disorders during pregnancy in prediction of long-term cardiovascular outcomes later in life.

Extremely sparse models of linkage disequilibrium in ancestrally diverse association studies

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is the correlation among nearby genetic variants. In genetic association studies, LD is often modeled using large correlation matrices, but this approach is inefficient, especially in ancestrally diverse studies. In the present study, we introduce LD graphical models (LDGMs), which are an extremely sparse and efficient representation of LD. LDGMs are derived from genome-wide genealogies; statistical relationships among alleles in the LDGM correspond to genealogical relationships among haplotypes. We published LDGMs and ancestry-specific LDGM precision matrices for 18 million common variants (minor allele frequency >1%) in five ancestry groups, validated their accuracy and demonstrated order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime for commonly used LD matrix computations. We implemented an extremely fast multiancestry polygenic prediction method, BLUPx-ldgm, which performs better than a similar method based on the reference LD correlation matrix. LDGMs will enable sophisticated methods that scale to ancestrally diverse genetic association data across millions of variants and individuals.

Gene-diet interaction analysis using novel weighted food scores discovers the adipocytokine signaling pathway associated with the development of type 2 diabetes

Introduction

The influence of dietary patterns measured using Recommended Food Score (RFS) with foods with high amounts of antioxidant nutrients for Type 2 diabetes (T2D) was analyzed. Our analysis aims to find associations between dietary patterns and T2D and conduct a gene-diet interaction analysis related to T2D.

Methods

Data analyzed in the current study were obtained from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Cohort. The dietary patterns of 46 food items were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. To maximize the predictive power of the RFS, we propose two weighted food scores, namely HisCoM-RFS calculated using the novel Hierarchical Structural Component model (HisCoM) and PLSDA-RFS calculated using Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) method.

Results

Both RFS (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03- 1.20; P = 0.009) and PLSDA-RFS (OR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02-1.19, P = 0.011) were positively associated with T2D. Mapping of SNPs (P < 0.05) from the interaction analysis between SNPs and the food scores to genes and pathways yielded some 12 genes (CACNA2D3, RELN, DOCK2, SLIT3, CTNNA2, etc.) and pathways associated with T2D. The strongest association was observed with the adipocytokine signalling pathway, highlighting 32 genes (STAT3, MAPK10, MAPK8, IRS1, AKT1-3, ADIPOR2, etc.) most likely associated with T2D. Finally, the group of the subjects in low, intermediate and high using both the food scores and a polygenic risk score found an association between diet quality groups with issues at high genetic risk of T2D.

Conclusion

A dietary pattern of poor amounts of antioxidant nutrients is associated with the risk of T2D, and diet affects pathway mechanisms involved in developing T2D.

Strategies for the Genomic Analysis of Admixed Populations

Admixed populations constitute a large portion of global human genetic diversity, yet they are often left out of genomics analyses. This exclusion is problematic, as it leads to disparities in the understanding of the genetic structure and history of diverse cohorts and the performance of genomic medicine across populations. Admixed populations have particular statistical challenges, as they inherit genomic segments from multiple source populations-the primary reason they have historically been excluded from genetic studies. In recent years, however, an increasing number of statistical methods and software tools have been developed to account for and leverage admixture in the context of genomics analyses. Here, we provide a survey of such computational strategies for the informed consideration of admixture to allow for the well-calibrated inclusion of mixed ancestry populations in large-scale genomics studies, and we detail persisting gaps in existing tools.

Genotype error due to low-coverage sequencing induces uncertainty in polygenic scoring

Polygenic scores (PGSs) have emerged as a standard approach to predict phenotypes from genotype data in a wide array of applications from socio-genomics to personalized medicine. Traditional PGSs assume genotype data to be error-free, ignoring possible errors and uncertainties introduced from genotyping, sequencing, and/or imputation. In this work, we investigate the effects of genotyping error due to low coverage sequencing on PGS estimation. We leverage SNP array and low-coverage whole-genome sequencing data (lcWGS, median coverage 0.04×) of 802 individuals from the Dana-Farber PROFILE cohort to show that PGS error correlates with sequencing depth (p = 1.2 × 10-7). We develop a probabilistic approach that incorporates genotype error in PGS estimation to produce well-calibrated PGS credible intervals and show that the probabilistic approach increases classification accuracy by up to 6% as compared to traditional PGSs that ignore genotyping error. Finally, we use simulations to explore the combined effect of genotyping and effect size errors and their implication on PGS-based risk-stratification. Our results illustrate the importance of considering genotyping error as a source of PGS error especially for cohorts with varying genotyping technologies and/or low-coverage sequencing.

The contributions of rare inherited and polygenic risk to ASD in multiplex families

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has a complex genetic architecture involving contributions from both de novo and inherited variation. Few studies have been designed to address the role of rare inherited variation or its interaction with common polygenic risk in ASD. Here, we performed whole-genome sequencing of the largest cohort of multiplex families to date, consisting of 4,551 individuals in 1,004 families having two or more autistic children. Using this study design, we identify seven previously unrecognized ASD risk genes supported by a majority of rare inherited variants, finding support for a total of 74 genes in our cohort and a total of 152 genes after combined analysis with other studies. Autistic children from multiplex families demonstrate an increased burden of rare inherited protein-truncating variants in known ASD risk genes. We also find that ASD polygenic score (PGS) is overtransmitted from nonautistic parents to autistic children who also harbor rare inherited variants, consistent with combinatorial effects in the offspring, which may explain the reduced penetrance of these rare variants in parents. We also observe that in addition to social dysfunction, language delay is associated with ASD PGS overtransmission. These results are consistent with an additive complex genetic risk architecture of ASD involving rare and common variation and further suggest that language delay is a core biological feature of ASD.

Patterns of item nonresponse behaviour to survey questionnaires are systematic and associated with genetic loci

Response to survey questionnaires is vital for social and behavioural research, and most analyses assume full and accurate response by participants. However, nonresponse is common and impedes proper interpretation and generalizability of results. We examined item nonresponse behaviour across 109 questionnaire items in the UK Biobank (N = 360,628). Phenotypic factor scores for two participant-selected nonresponse answers, 'Prefer not to answer' (PNA) and 'I don't know' (IDK), each predicted participant nonresponse in follow-up surveys (incremental pseudo-R2 = 0.056), even when controlling for education and self-reported health (incremental pseudo-R2 = 0.046). After performing genome-wide association studies of our factors, PNA and IDK were highly genetically correlated with one another (rg = 0.73 (s.e. = 0.03)) and with education (rg,PNA = -0.51 (s.e. = 0.03); rg,IDK = -0.38 (s.e. = 0.02)), health (rg,PNA = 0.51 (s.e. = 0.03); rg,IDK = 0.49 (s.e. = 0.02)) and income (rg,PNA = -0.57 (s.e. = 0.04); rg,IDK = -0.46 (s.e. = 0.02)), with additional unique genetic associations observed for both PNA and IDK (P < 5 × 10-8). We discuss how these associations may bias studies of traits correlated with item nonresponse and demonstrate how this bias may substantially affect genome-wide association studies. While the UK Biobank data are deidentified, we further protected participant privacy by avoiding exploring non-response behaviour to single questions, assuring that no information can be used to associate results with any particular respondents.

Polygenic risk score in comparison with C-reactive protein for predicting incident coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite interest in the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for predicting coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, the clinical utility of PRS compared to conventional risk factors has not been demonstrated. We compared the performance of PRS with that of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in two well-established cohorts.

METHODS

The study population included individuals of European ancestry free of baseline CHD from ARIC (N = 13,113) and the Framingham Offspring Study (FHS) (N = 2,696). The primary predictors included a validated PRS consisting of >6.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms and hsCRP. The outcome was incident CHD, defined as non-fatal or fatal myocardial infarction. We compared the performance of both predictors after adjusting for the Pooled Cohort Equations in multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. We assessed discrimination and reclassification using c-statistics and net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

Incident CHD occurred in 565 ARIC and 153 FHS participants. In multivariable-adjusted models, both PRS and hsCRP were associated with incident CHD (p < 0.05 in both cohorts). In models incorporating both predictors, strengths of association were similar. For instance, in ARIC, the hazard ratio per SD increment was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27-1.50, p = 2.94 × 10-14) for PRS and 1.41 (1.30-1.55, p = 3.10 × 10-15) for hsCRP. Neither predictor significantly increased model discrimination or net reclassification when compared with models containing the Pooled Cohort Equations alone.

CONCLUSIONS

In two independent cohorts, PRS performed similarly to hsCRP for the prediction of CHD risk. These findings suggest PRS does not have unique clinical utility beyond this widely-available, inexpensive measure of risk in unselected middle-aged populations.

Genetic associations with parental investment from conception to wealth inheritance in six cohorts

Genetic inheritance is not the only way parents' genes may affect children. It is also possible that parents' genes are associated with investments into children's development. We examined evidence for links between parental genetics and parental investments, from the prenatal period through to adulthood, using data from six population-based cohorts in the UK, US and New Zealand, together totalling 36,566 parents. Our findings revealed associations between parental genetics-summarized in a genome-wide polygenic score-and parental behaviour across development, from smoking in pregnancy, breastfeeding in infancy, parenting in childhood and adolescence, to leaving a wealth inheritance to adult children. Effect sizes tended to be small at any given time point, ranging from RR = 1.12 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 1.09, 1.15) to RR = 0.76 (95%CI 0.72, 0.80) during the prenatal period and infancy; β = 0.07 (95%CI 0.04, 0.11) to β = 0.29 (95%CI 0.27, 0.32) in childhood and adolescence, and RR = 1.04 (95%CI 1.01, 1.06) to RR = 1.11 (95%CI 1.07, 1.15) in adulthood. There was evidence for accumulating effects across development, ranging from β = 0.15 (95%CI 0.11, 0.18) to β = 0.23 (95%CI 0.16, 0.29) depending on cohort. Our findings are consistent with the interpretation that parents pass on advantages to offspring not only via direct genetic transmission or purely environmental paths, but also via genetic associations with parental investment from conception to wealth inheritance.

An alternative method of SNP inclusion to develop a generalized polygenic risk score analysis across Alzheimer's disease cohorts

Introduction

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have great clinical potential for detecting late-onset diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), allowing the identification of those most at risk years before the symptoms present. Although many studies use various and complicated machine learning algorithms to determine the best discriminatory values for PRSs, few studies look at the commonality of the Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) utilized in these models.

Methods

This investigation focussed on identifying SNPs that tag blocks of linkage disequilibrium across the genome, allowing for a generalized PRS model across cohorts and genotyping panels. PRS modeling was conducted on five AD development cohorts, with the best discriminatory models exploring for a commonality of linkage disequilibrium clumps. Clumps that contributed to the discrimination of cases from controls that occurred in multiple cohorts were used to create a generalized model of PRS, which was then tested in the five development cohorts and three further AD cohorts.

Results

The model developed provided a discriminability accuracy average of over 70% in multiple AD cohorts and included variants of several well-known AD risk genes.

Discussion

A key element of devising a polygenic risk score that can be used in the clinical setting is one that has consistency in the SNPs that are used to calculate the score; this study demonstrates that using a model based on commonality of association findings rather than meta-analyses may prove useful.

Overcoming attenuation bias in regressions using polygenic indices

Measurement error in polygenic indices (PGIs) attenuates the estimation of their effects in regression models. We analyze and compare two approaches addressing this attenuation bias: Obviously Related Instrumental Variables (ORIV) and the PGI Repository Correction (PGI-RC). Through simulations, we show that the PGI-RC performs slightly better than ORIV, unless the prediction sample is very small (N < 1000) or when there is considerable assortative mating. Within families, ORIV is the best choice since the PGI-RC correction factor is generally not available. We verify the empirical validity of the simulations by predicting educational attainment and height in a sample of siblings from the UK Biobank. We show that applying ORIV between families increases the standardized effect of the PGI by 12% (height) and by 22% (educational attainment) compared to a meta-analysis-based PGI, yet estimates remain slightly below the PGI-RC estimates. Furthermore, within-family ORIV regression provides the tightest lower bound for the direct genetic effect, increasing the lower bound for the standardized direct genetic effect on educational attainment from 0.14 to 0.18 (+29%), and for height from 0.54 to 0.61 (+13%) compared to a meta-analysis-based PGI.

Development of risk prediction models for depression combining genetic and early life risk factors

Background

Both genetic and early life risk factors play important roles in the pathogenesis and progression of adult depression. However, the interplay between these risk factors and their added value to risk prediction models have not been fully elucidated.

Methods

Leveraging a meta-analysis of major depressive disorder genome-wide association studies (N = 45,591 cases and 97,674 controls), we developed and optimized a polygenic risk score for depression using LDpred in a model selection dataset from the UK Biobank (N = 130,092 European ancestry individuals). In a UK Biobank test dataset (N = 278,730 European ancestry individuals), we tested whether the polygenic risk score and early life risk factors were associated with each other and compared their associations with depression phenotypes. Finally, we conducted joint predictive modeling to combine this polygenic risk score with early life risk factors by stepwise regression, and assessed the model performance in identifying individuals at high risk of depression.

Results

In the UK Biobank test dataset, the polygenic risk score for depression was moderately associated with multiple early life risk factors. For instance, a one standard deviation increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.16-fold increased odds of frequent domestic violence (95% CI: 1.14-1.19) and 1.09-fold increased odds of not having access to medical care as a child (95% CI: 1.05-1.14). However, the polygenic risk score was more strongly associated with depression phenotypes than most early life risk factors. A joint predictive model integrating the polygenic risk score, early life risk factors, age and sex achieved an AUROC of 0.6766 for predicting strictly defined major depressive disorder, while a model without the polygenic risk score and a model without any early life risk factors had an AUROC of 0.6593 and 0.6318, respectively.

Conclusion

We have developed a polygenic risk score to partly capture the genetic liability to depression. Although genetic and early life risk factors can be correlated, joint predictive models improved risk stratification despite limited improvement in magnitude, and may be explored as tools to better identify individuals at high risk of depression.

Development of a Polygenic Risk Score for BMI to Assess the Genetic Susceptibility to Obesity and Related Diseases in the Korean Population

Hundreds of genetic variants for body mass index (BMI) have been identified from numerous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in different ethnicities. In this study, we aimed to develop a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI for predicting susceptibility to obesity and related traits in the Korean population. For this purpose, we obtained base data resulting from a GWAS on BMI using 57,110 HEXA study subjects from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES). Subsequently, we calculated PRSs in 13,504 target subjects from the KARE and CAVAS studies of KoGES using the PRSice-2 software. The best-fit PRS for BMI (PRS_BMI) comprising 53,341 SNPs was selected at a p-value threshold of 0.064, at which the model fit had the greatest R² score. The PRS_BMI was tested for its association with obesity-related quantitative traits and diseases in the target dataset. Linear regression analyses demonstrated significant associations of PRS_BMI with BMI, blood pressure, and lipid traits. Logistic regression analyses revealed significant associations of PRS_BMI with obesity, hypertension, and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia. We observed about 2-fold, 1.1-fold, and 1.2-fold risk for obesity, hypertension, and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia, respectively, in the highest-risk group in comparison to the lowest-risk group of PRS_BMI in the test population. We further detected approximately 26.0%, 2.8%, and 3.9% differences in prevalence between the highest and lowest risk groups for obesity, hypertension, and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia, respectively. To predict the incidence of obesity and related diseases, we applied PRS_BMI to the 16-year follow-up data of the KARE study. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the higher the PRS_BMI, the higher the incidence of dyslipidemia and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia. Taken together, this study demonstrated that a PRS developed for BMI may be a valuable indicator to assess the risk of obesity and related diseases in the Korean population.

Discovering cellular programs of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of metabolic traits using LipocyteProfiler

A primary obstacle in translating genetic associations with disease into therapeutic strategies is elucidating the cellular programs affected by genetic risk variants and effector genes. Here, we introduce LipocyteProfiler, a cardiometabolic-disease-oriented high-content image-based profiling tool that enables evaluation of thousands of morphological and cellular profiles that can be systematically linked to genes and genetic variants relevant to cardiometabolic disease. We show that LipocyteProfiler allows surveillance of diverse cellular programs by generating rich context- and process-specific cellular profiles across hepatocyte and adipocyte cell-state transitions. We use LipocyteProfiler to identify known and novel cellular mechanisms altered by polygenic risk of metabolic disease, including insulin resistance, fat distribution, and the polygenic contribution to lipodystrophy. LipocyteProfiler paves the way for large-scale forward and reverse deep phenotypic profiling in lipocytes and provides a framework for the unbiased identification of causal relationships between genetic variants and cellular programs relevant to human disease.

Deep integrative models for large-scale human genomics

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are expected to play a critical role in precision medicine. Currently, PRS predictors are generally based on linear models using summary statistics, and more recently individual-level data. However, these predictors mainly capture additive relationships and are limited in data modalities they can use. We developed a deep learning framework (EIR) for PRS prediction which includes a model, genome-local-net (GLN), specifically designed for large-scale genomics data. The framework supports multi-task learning, automatic integration of other clinical and biochemical data, and model explainability. When applied to individual-level data from the UK Biobank, the GLN model demonstrated a competitive performance compared to established neural network architectures, particularly for certain traits, showcasing its potential in modeling complex genetic relationships. Furthermore, the GLN model outperformed linear PRS methods for Type 1 Diabetes, likely due to modeling non-additive genetic effects and epistasis. This was supported by our identification of widespread non-additive genetic effects and epistasis in the context of T1D. Finally, we constructed PRS models that integrated genotype, blood, urine, and anthropometric data and found that this improved performance for 93% of the 290 diseases and disorders considered. EIR is available at https://github.com/arnor-sigurdsson/EIR.

Optimal strategies for learning multi-ancestry polygenic scores vary across traits

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are individual-level measures that aggregate the genome-wide genetic predisposition to a given trait. As PGS have predominantly been developed using European-ancestry samples, trait prediction using such European ancestry-derived PGS is less accurate in non-European ancestry individuals. Although there has been recent progress in combining multiple PGS trained on distinct populations, the problem of how to maximize performance given a multiple-ancestry cohort is largely unexplored. Here, we investigate the effect of sample size and ancestry composition on PGS performance for fifteen traits in UK Biobank. For some traits, PGS estimated using a relatively small African-ancestry training set outperformed, on an African-ancestry test set, PGS estimated using a much larger European-ancestry only training set. We observe similar, but not identical, results when considering other minority-ancestry groups within UK Biobank. Our results emphasise the importance of targeted data collection from underrepresented groups in order to address existing disparities in PGS performance.

Towards Faster Gene Expression Prediction via Dimensionality Reduction and Feature Selection

The majority of genes have a genetic component to their expression. Elastic nets have been shown effective at predicting tissue-specific, individual-level gene expression from genotype data. We apply principal component analysis (PCA), linkage disequilibrium pruning, or the combination of the two to reduce, or generate, a lower-dimensional representation of the genetic variants used as inputs to the elastic net models for the prediction of gene expression. Our results show that, in general, elastic nets attain their best performance when all genetic variants are included as inputs; however, a relatively low number of principal components can effectively summarize the majority of genetic variation while reducing the overall computation time. Specifically, 100 principal components reduce the computational time of the models by over 80% with only an 8% loss in R2. Finally, linkage disequilibrium pruning does not effectively reduce the genetic variants for predicting gene expression. As predictive models are commonly made for over 27,000 genes for more than 50 tissues, PCA may provide an effective method for reducing the computational burden of gene expression analysis.

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score improves risk prediction for coronary artery disease

Identification of individuals at highest risk of coronary artery disease (CAD)-ideally before onset-remains an important public health need. Prior studies have developed genome-wide polygenic scores to enable risk stratification, reflecting the substantial inherited component to CAD risk. Here we develop a new and significantly improved polygenic score for CAD, termed GPSMult, that incorporates genome-wide association data across five ancestries for CAD (>269,000 cases and >1,178,000 controls) and ten CAD risk factors. GPSMult strongly associated with prevalent CAD (odds ratio per standard deviation 2.14, 95% confidence interval 2.10-2.19, P < 0.001) in UK Biobank participants of European ancestry, identifying 20.0% of the population with 3-fold increased risk and conversely 13.9% with 3-fold decreased risk as compared with those in the middle quintile. GPSMult was also associated with incident CAD events (hazard ratio per standard deviation 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.70-1.76, P < 0.001), identifying 3% of healthy individuals with risk of future CAD events equivalent to those with existing disease and significantly improving risk discrimination and reclassification. Across multiethnic, external validation datasets inclusive of 33,096, 124,467, 16,433 and 16,874 participants of African, European, Hispanic and South Asian ancestry, respectively, GPSMult demonstrated increased strength of associations across all ancestries and outperformed all available previously published CAD polygenic scores. These data contribute a new GPSMult for CAD to the field and provide a generalizable framework for how large-scale integration of genetic association data for CAD and related traits from diverse populations can meaningfully improve polygenic risk prediction.

Explainable multi-task learning improves the parallel estimation of polygenic risk scores for many diseases through shared genetic basis

Many complex diseases share common genetic determinants and are comorbid in a population. We hypothesized that the co-occurrences of diseases and their overlapping genetic etiology can be exploited to simultaneously improve multiple diseases' polygenic risk scores (PRS). This hypothesis was tested using a multi-task learning (MTL) approach based on an explainable neural network architecture. We found that parallel estimations of the PRS for 17 prevalent cancers in a pan-cancer MTL model were generally more accurate than independent estimations for individual cancers in comparable single-task learning (STL) models. Such performance improvement conferred by positive transfer learning was also observed consistently for 60 prevalent non-cancer diseases in a pan-disease MTL model. Interpretation of the MTL models revealed significant genetic correlations between the important sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms used by the neural network for PRS estimation. This suggested a well-connected network of diseases with shared genetic basis.

Danish study of Non-Invasive Testing in Coronary Artery Disease 3 (Dan-NICAD 3): study design of a controlled study on optimal diagnostic strategy

INTRODUCTION

Current guideline recommend functional imaging for myocardial ischaemia if coronary CT angiography (CTA) has shown coronary artery disease (CAD) of uncertain functional significance. However, diagnostic accuracy of selective myocardial perfusion imaging after coronary CTA is currently unclear. The Danish study of Non-Invasive testing in Coronary Artery Disease 3 trial is designed to evaluate head to head the diagnostic accuracy of myocardial perfusion imaging with positron emission tomography (PET) using the tracers ⁸²Rubidium (⁸²Rb-PET) compared with oxygen-15 labelled water PET (¹⁵O-water-PET) in patients with symptoms of obstructive CAD and a coronary CT scan with suspected obstructive CAD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional study will include approximately 1000 symptomatic patients without previous CAD. Patients are included after referral to coronary CTA. All patients undergo a structured interview and blood is sampled for genetic and proteomic analysis and a coronary CTA. Patients with possible obstructive CAD at coronary CTA are examined with both ⁸²Rb-PET, ¹⁵O-water-PET and invasive coronary angiography with three-vessel fractional flow reserve and thermodilution measurements of coronary flow reserve. After enrolment, patients are followed with Seattle Angina Questionnaires and follow-up PET scans in patients with an initially abnormal PET scan and for cardiovascular events in 10 years.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from Danish regional committee on health research ethics. Written informed consent will be provided by all study participants. Results of this study will be disseminated via articles in international peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04707859.

Clinical and Genetic Atrial Fibrillation Risk and Discrimination of Cardioembolic From Noncardioembolic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cause of stroke but may not be detectable at the time of stroke. We hypothesized that an AF polygenic risk score (PRS) can discriminate between cardioembolic stroke and noncardioembolic strokes.

METHODS

We evaluated AF and stroke risk in 26 145 individuals of European descent from the Stroke Genetics Network case-control study. AF genetic risk was estimated using 3 recently developed PRS methods (LDpred-funct-inf, sBayesR, and PRS-CS) and 2 previously validated PRSs. We performed logistic regression of each AF PRS on AF status and separately cardioembolic stroke, adjusting for clinical risk score (CRS), imputation group, and principal components. We calculated model discrimination of AF and cardioembolic stroke using the concordance statistic (c-statistic) and compared c-statistics using 2000-iteration bootstrapping. We also assessed reclassification of cardioembolic stroke with the addition of PRS to either CRS or a modified CHA2DS2-VASc score alone.

RESULTS

Each AF PRS was significantly associated with AF and with cardioembolic stroke after adjustment for CRS. Addition of each AF PRS significantly improved discrimination as compared with CRS alone (P<0.01). When combined with the CRS, both PRS-CS and LDpred scores discriminated both AF and cardioembolic stroke (c-statistic 0.84 for AF; 0.74 for cardioembolic stroke) better than 3 other PRS scores (P<0.01). Using PRS-CS PRS and CRS in combination resulted in more appropriate reclassification of stroke events as compared with CRS alone (event reclassification [net reclassification indices]+=14% [95% CI, 10%-18%]; nonevent reclassification [net reclassification indices]-=17% [95% CI, 15%-0.19%]) or the modified CHA2DS2-VASc score (net reclassification indices+=11% [95% CI, 7%-15%]; net reclassification indices-=14% [95% CI, 12%-16%]) alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of polygenic risk of AF to clinical risk factors modestly improves the discrimination of cardioembolic from noncardioembolic strokes, as well as reclassification of stroke subtype. Polygenic risk of AF may be a useful biomarker for identifying strokes caused by AF.

Genome-wide association analyses define pathogenic signaling pathways and prioritize drug targets for IgA nephropathy

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a progressive form of kidney disease defined by glomerular deposition of IgA. Here we performed a genome-wide association study of 10,146 kidney-biopsy-diagnosed IgAN cases and 28,751 controls across 17 international cohorts. We defined 30 genome-wide significant risk loci explaining 11% of disease risk. A total of 16 loci were new, including TNFSF4/TNFSF18, REL, CD28, PF4V1, LY86, LYN, ANXA3, TNFSF8/TNFSF15, REEP3, ZMIZ1, OVOL1/RELA, ETS1, IGH, IRF8, TNFRSF13B and FCAR. The risk loci were enriched in gene orthologs causing abnormal IgA levels when genetically manipulated in mice. We also observed a positive genetic correlation between IgAN and serum IgA levels. High polygenic score for IgAN was associated with earlier onset of kidney failure. In a comprehensive functional annotation analysis of candidate causal genes, we observed convergence of biological candidates on a common set of inflammatory signaling pathways and cytokine ligand-receptor pairs, prioritizing potential new drug targets.

Longitudinal multi-omics study reveals common etiology underlying association between plasma proteome and BMI trajectories in adolescent and young adult twins

Background

The influence of genetics and environment on the association of the plasma proteome with body mass index (BMI) and changes in BMI remain underexplored, and the links to other omics in these associations remain to be investigated. We characterized protein-BMI trajectory associations in adolescents and adults and how these connect to other omics layers.

Methods

Our study included two cohorts of longitudinally followed twins: FinnTwin12 (N=651) and the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR) (N=665). Follow-up comprised four BMI measurements over approximately 6 (NTR: 23-27 years old) to 10 years (FinnTwin12: 12-22 years old), with omics data collected at the last BMI measurement. BMI changes were calculated using latent growth curve models. Mixed-effects models were used to quantify the associations between the abundance of 439 plasma proteins with BMI at blood sampling and changes in BMI. The sources of genetic and environmental variation underlying the protein abundances were quantified using twin models, as were the associations of proteins with BMI and BMI changes. In NTR, we investigated the association of gene expression of genes encoding proteins identified in FinnTwin12 with BMI and changes in BMI. We linked identified proteins and their coding genes to plasma metabolites and polygenic risk scores (PRS) using mixed-effect models and correlation networks.

Results

We identified 66 and 14 proteins associated with BMI at blood sampling and changes in BMI, respectively. The average heritability of these proteins was 35%. Of the 66 BMI-protein associations, 43 and 12 showed genetic and environmental correlations, respectively, including 8 proteins showing both. Similarly, we observed 6 and 4 genetic and environmental correlations between changes in BMI and protein abundance, respectively. S100A8 gene expression was associated with BMI at blood sampling, and the PRG4 and CFI genes were associated with BMI changes. Proteins showed strong connections with many metabolites and PRSs, but we observed no multi-omics connections among gene expression and other omics layers.

Conclusions

Associations between the proteome and BMI trajectories are characterized by shared genetic, environmental, and metabolic etiologies. We observed few gene-protein pairs associated with BMI or changes in BMI at the proteome and transcriptome levels.

Step by step: towards a better understanding of the genetic architecture of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is considered to have a large genetic component. Our knowledge of this component has progressed over the last 10 years, thanks notably to the advent of genome-wide association studies and the establishment of large consortia that make it possible to analyze hundreds of thousands of cases and controls. The characterization of dozens of chromosomal regions associated with the risk of developing AD and (in some loci) the causal genes responsible for the observed disease signal has confirmed the involvement of major pathophysiological pathways (such as amyloid precursor protein metabolism) and opened up new perspectives (such as the central role of microglia and inflammation). Furthermore, large-scale sequencing projects are starting to reveal the major impact of rare variants - even in genes like APOE - on the AD risk. This increasingly comprehensive knowledge is now being disseminated through translational research; in particular, the development of genetic risk/polygenic risk scores is helping to identify the subpopulations more at risk or less at risk of developing AD. Although it is difficult to assess the efforts still needed to comprehensively characterize the genetic component of AD, several lines of research can be improved or initiated. Ultimately, genetics (in combination with other biomarkers) might help to redefine the boundaries and relationships between various neurodegenerative diseases.

Associations between polygenic risk score and covid-19 susceptibility and severity across ethnic groups: UK Biobank analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 manifests with huge heterogeneity in susceptibility and severity outcomes. UK Black Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups have demonstrated disproportionate burdens. Some variability remains unexplained, suggesting potential genetic contribution. Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) can determine genetic predisposition to disease based on Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) within the genome. COVID-19 PRS analyses within non-European samples are extremely limited. We applied a multi-ethnic PRS to a UK-based cohort to understand genetic contribution to COVID-19 variability.

METHODS

We constructed two PRS for susceptibility and severity outcomes based on leading risk-variants from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. Scores were applied to 447,382 participants from the UK-Biobank. Associations with COVID-19 outcomes were assessed using binary logistic regression and discriminative power was validated using incremental area under receiver operating curve (ΔAUC). Variance explained was compared between ethnic groups via incremental pseudo-R2 (ΔR2).

RESULTS

Compared to those at low genetic risk, those at high risk had a significantly greater risk of severe COVID-19 for White (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-1.74), Asian (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.63-5.09) and Black (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.11-3.53) ethnic groups. Severity PRS performed best within Asian (ΔAUC 0.9%, ΔR2 0.98%) and Black (ΔAUC 0.6%, ΔR2 0.61%) cohorts. For susceptibility, higher genetic risk was significantly associated with COVID-19 infection risk for the White cohort (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.26-1.36), but not for Black or Asian groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant associations between PRS and COVID-19 outcomes were elicited, establishing a genetic basis for variability in COVID-19. PRS showed utility in identifying high-risk individuals. The multi-ethnic approach allowed applicability of PRS to diverse populations, with the severity model performing well within Black and Asian cohorts. Further studies with larger sample sizes of non-White samples are required to increase statistical power and better assess impacts within BAME populations.

Polygenic risk scores in pharmacogenomics: opportunities and challenges-a mini review

Pharmacogenomics (PGx) aims at tailoring drug therapy by considering patient genetic makeup. While drug dosage guidelines have been extensively based on single gene mutations (single nucleotide polymorphisms) over the last decade, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have emerged in the past years as a promising tool to account for the complex interplay and polygenic nature of patients' genetic predisposition affecting drug response. Even though PRS research has demonstrated convincing evidence in disease risk prediction, the clinical utility and its implementation in daily care has yet to be demonstrated, and pharmacogenomics is no exception; usual endpoints include drug efficacy or toxicity. Here, we review the general pipeline in PRS calculation, and we discuss some of the remaining barriers and challenges that must be undertaken to bring PRS research in PGx closer to patient care. Besides the need in following reporting guidelines and larger PGx patient cohorts, PRS integration will require close collaboration between bioinformatician, treating physicians and genetic consultants to ensure a transparent, generalizable, and trustful implementation of PRS results in real-world medical decisions.

Evaluating Genomic Polygenic Risk Scores for Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in Latinos

The utility of polygenic risk score (PRS) models has not been comprehensively evaluated for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the most common type of cancer in children. Previous PRS models for ALL were based on significant loci observed in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), even though genomic PRS models have been shown to improve prediction performance for a number of complex diseases. In the United States, Latino (LAT) children have the highest risk of ALL, but the transferability of PRS models to LAT children has not been studied. In this study we constructed and evaluated genomic PRS models based on either non-Latino white (NLW) GWAS or a multi-ancestry GWAS. We found that the best PRS models performed similarly between held-out NLW and LAT samples (PseudoR 2 = 0.086 ± 0.023 in NLW vs. 0.060 ± 0.020 in LAT), and can be improved for LAT if we performed GWAS in LAT-only (PseudoR 2 = 0.116 ± 0.026) or multi-ancestry samples (PseudoR 2 = 0.131 ± 0.025). However, the best genomic models currently do not have better prediction accuracy than a conventional model using all known ALL-associated loci in the literature (PseudoR 2 = 0.166 ± 0.025), which includes loci from GWAS populations that we could not access to train genomic PRS models. Our results suggest that larger and more inclusive GWAS may be needed for genomic PRS to be useful for ALL. Moreover, the comparable performance between populations may suggest a more oligo-genic architecture for ALL, where some large effect loci may be shared between populations. Future PRS models that move away from the infinite causal loci assumption may further improve PRS for ALL.

Evaluating the use of blood pressure polygenic risk scores across race/ethnic background groups

We assess performance and limitations of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for multiple blood pressure (BP) phenotypes in diverse population groups. We compare "clumping-and-thresholding" (PRSice2) and LD-based (LDPred2) methods to construct PRSs from each of multiple GWAS, as well as multi-PRS approaches that sum PRSs with and without weights, including PRS-CSx. We use datasets from the MGB Biobank, TOPMed study, UK biobank, and from All of Us to train, assess, and validate PRSs in groups defined by self-reported race/ethnic background (Asian, Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White). For both SBP and DBP, the PRS-CSx based PRS, constructed as a weighted sum of PRSs developed from multiple independent GWAS, perform best across all race/ethnic backgrounds. Stratified analysis in All of Us shows that PRSs are better predictive of BP in females compared to males, individuals without obesity, and middle-aged (40-60 years) compared to older and younger individuals.

Joint polygenic and environmental risks for childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and ADHD symptom dimensions

Background

attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with both polygenic liability and environmental exposures, both intrinsic to the family, such as family conflict, and extrinsic, such as air pollution. However, much less is known about the interplay between environmental and genetic risks relevant to ADHD-a better understanding of which could inform both mechanistic models and clinical prediction algorithms.

Methods

Two independent data sets, the population-based Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD) (N = 11,876) and the case-control Oregon-ADHD-1000 (N = 1449), were used to examine additive (G + E) and interactive (GxE) effects of selected polygenic risk scores (PRS) and environmental factors in a cross-sectional design. Genetic risk was measured using PRS for nine mental health disorders/traits. Exposures included family income, family conflict/negative sentiment, and geocoded measures of area deprivation, lead exposure risk, and air pollution exposure (nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter).

Results

ADHD PRS and family conflict jointly predicted concurrent ADHD symptoms in both cohorts. Additive-effects models, including both genetic and environmental factors, explained significantly more variation in symptoms than any individual factor alone (joint R 2 = .091 for total symptoms in ABCD; joint R 2 = .173 in Oregon-ADHD-1000; all delta-R 2 p-values <2e-7). Significant effect size heterogeneity across ancestry groups was observed for genetic and environmental factors (e.g., Q = 9.01, p = .011 for major depressive disorder PRS; Q = 13.34, p = .001 for area deprivation). GxE interactions observed in the full ABCD cohort suggested stronger environmental effects when genetic risk is low, though they did not replicate.

Conclusions

Reproducible additive effects of PRS and family environment on ADHD symptoms were found, but GxE interaction effects were not replicated and appeared confounded by ancestry. Results highlight the potential value of combining exposures and PRS in clinical prediction algorithms. The observed differences in risks across ancestry groups warrant further study to avoid health care disparities.

Trans-ethnic polygenic risk scores for body mass index: An international hundred K+ cohorts consortium study

BACKGROUND

While polygenic risk scores hold significant promise in estimating an individual's risk of developing a complex trait such as obesity, their application in the clinic has, to date, been limited by a lack of data from non-European populations. As a collaboration model of the International Hundred K+ Cohorts Consortium (IHCC), we endeavored to develop a globally applicable trans-ethnic PRS for body mass index (BMI) through this relatively new international effort.

METHODS

The polygenic risk score (PRS) model was developed, trained and tested at the Center for Applied Genomics (CAG) of The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) based on a BMI meta-analysis from the GIANT consortium. The validated PRS models were subsequently disseminated to the participating sites. Scores were generated by each site locally on their cohorts and summary statistics returned to CAG for final analysis.

RESULTS

We show that in the absence of a well powered trans-ethnic GWAS from which to derive marker SNPs and effect estimates for PRS, trans-ethnic scores can be generated from European ancestry GWAS using Bayesian approaches such as LDpred, by adjusting the summary statistics using trans-ethnic linkage disequilibrium reference panels. The ported trans-ethnic scores outperform population specific-PRS across all non-European ancestry populations investigated including East Asians and three-way admixed Brazilian cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Here we show that for a truly polygenic trait such as BMI adjusting the summary statistics of a well powered European ancestry study using trans-ethnic LD reference results in a score that is predictive across a range of ancestries including East Asians and three-way admixed Brazilians.

Implementing Reporting Standards for Polygenic Risk Scores for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There is considerable interest in using polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for assessing risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). A barrier to the clinical use of PRSs is heterogeneity in how PRS studies are reported. In this review, we summarize approaches to establish a uniform reporting framework for PRSs for coronary heart disease (CHD), the most common form of ASCVD.

RECENT FINDINGS

Reporting standards for PRSs need to be contextualized for disease specific applications. In addition to metrics of predictive performance, reporting standards for PRSs for CHD should include how cases/control were ascertained, degree of adjustment for conventional CHD risk factors, portability to diverse genetic ancestry groups and admixed individuals, and quality control measures for clinical deployment. Such a framework will enable PRSs to be optimized and benchmarked for clinical use.

Sub-types of insomnia in adolescents: Insights from a quantitative/molecular twin study

Background

Insomnia with short sleep duration has been postulated as more severe than that accompanied by normal/long sleep length. While the short duration subtype is considered to have greater genetic influence than the other subtype, no studies have addressed this question. This study aimed to compare these subtypes in terms of: (1) the heritability of insomnia symptoms; (2) polygenic scores (PGS) for insomnia symptoms and sleep duration; (3) the associations between insomnia symptoms and a wide variety of traits/disorders.

Methods

The sample comprised 4000 pairs of twins aged 16 from the Twins Early Development Study. Twin models were fitted to estimate the heritability of insomnia in both groups. PGS were calculated for self-reported insomnia and sleep duration and compared among participants with short and normal/long sleep duration.

Results

Heritability was not significantly different in the short sleep duration group (A = 0.13 [95%CI = 0.01, 0.32]) and the normal/long sleep duration group (A = 0.35 [95%CI = 0.29, 0.40]). Shared environmental factors accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in the short sleep duration group (C = 0.19 [95%CI = 0.05, 0.32]) but not in the normal/long sleep duration group (C = 0.00 [95%CI = 0.00, 0.04]). PGS did not differ significantly between groups although results were in the direction expected by the theory. Our results also showed that insomnia with short (as compared to normal/long) sleep duration had a stronger association with anxiety and depression (p < .05)-although not once adjusting for multiple testing.

Conclusions

We found mixed results in relation to the expected differences between the insomnia subtypes in adolescents. Future research needs to further establish cut-offs for 'short' sleep at different developmental stages and employ objective measures of sleep.