Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Clinical Timing-Sequence Warning Models for Serious Bacterial Infections in Adults Based on Machine Learning: Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Serious bacterial infections (SBIs) are linked to unplanned hospital admissions and a high mortality rate. The early identification of SBIs is crucial in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to establish and validate clinically applicable models designed to identify SBIs in patients with infective fever.

METHODS

Clinical data from 945 patients with infective fever, encompassing demographic and laboratory indicators, were retrospectively collected from a 2200-bed teaching hospital between January 2013 and December 2020. The data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7:3. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Boruta, Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), and recursive feature elimination, were utilized for feature filtering. The selected features were subsequently used to construct models predicting SBIs using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with 5-fold cross-validation. Performance metrics, including the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other relevant parameters, were used to assess model performance. Considering both model performance and clinical needs, 2 clinical timing-sequence warning models were ultimately confirmed using LR analysis. The corresponding predictive nomograms were then plotted for clinical use. Moreover, a physician, blinded to the study, collected additional data from the same center involving 164 patients during 2021. The nomograms developed in the study were then applied in clinical practice to further validate their clinical utility.

RESULTS

In total, 69.9% (661/945) of the patients developed SBIs. Age, hemoglobin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein levels were identified as important features by at least two ML algorithms. Considering the collection sequence of these indicators and clinical demands, 2 timing-sequence models predicting the SBI risk were constructed accordingly: the early admission model (model 1) and the model within 24 hours of admission (model 2). LR demonstrated better stability than RF and XGBoost in both models and performed the best in model 2, with an AUC, accuracy, and sensitivity of 0.780 (95% CI 0.720-841), 0.754 (95% CI 0.698-804), and 0.776 (95% CI 0.711-832), respectively. XGBoost had an advantage over LR in AUC (0.708, 95% CI 0.641-775 vs 0.686, 95% CI 0.617-754), while RF achieved better accuracy (0.729, 95% CI 0.673-780) and sensitivity (0.790, 95% CI 0.728-844) than the other 2 approaches in model 1. Two SBI-risk prediction nomograms were developed for clinical use based on LR, and they exhibited good performance with an accuracy of 0.707 and 0.750 and a sensitivity of 0.729 and 0.927 in clinical application.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical timing-sequence warning models demonstrated efficacy in predicting SBIs in patients suspected of having infective fever and in clinical application, suggesting good potential in clinical decision-making. Nevertheless, additional prospective and multicenter studies are necessary to further confirm their clinical utility.

Social determinants of ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection: UK Biobank SARS-CoV-2 Serology Study

BACKGROUND

The social determinants of ethnic disparities in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic in the UK remain unclear.

METHODS

In May 2020, a total of 20 195 adults were recruited from the general population into the UK Biobank SARS-CoV-2 Serology Study. Between mid-May and mid-November 2020, participants provided monthly blood samples. At the end of the study, participants completed a questionnaire on social factors during different periods of the pandemic. Logistic regression yielded ORs for the association between ethnicity and SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibodies (indicating prior infection) using blood samples collected in July 2020, immediately after the first wave.

RESULTS

After exclusions, 14 571 participants (mean age 56; 58% women) returned a blood sample in July, of whom 997 (7%) had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seropositivity was strongly related to ethnicity: compared with those of White ethnicity, ORs (adjusted for age and sex) for Black, South Asian, Chinese, Mixed and Other ethnic groups were 2.66 (95% CI 1.94-3.60), 1.66 (1.15-2.34), 0.99 (0.42-1.99), 1.42 (1.03-1.91) and 1.79 (1.27-2.47), respectively. Additional adjustment for social factors reduced the overall likelihood ratio statistics for ethnicity by two-thirds (67%; mostly from occupational factors and UK region of residence); more precise measurement of social factors may have further reduced the association.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies social factors that are likely to account for much of the ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave in the UK, and highlights the particular relevance of occupation and residential region in the pathway between ethnicity and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Evolving trends and burden of iron deficiency among children, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Objectives

We aimed to provide a timely, comprehensive, and reliable assessment of the burden of iron deficiency (ID) in children between 1990 and 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels to inform policymakers in developing locally appropriate health policies.

Methods

Data related to ID among children younger than 15 years old were analyzed by sex, age, year, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location according to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-standardized rates were used to compare the burden between different regions and countries. Furthermore, the Joinpoint regression model was used to assess temporal trends from 1990 to 2019.

Results

In 2019, the number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ID in children were 391,491,699 and 13,620,231, respectively. The global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates for childhood ID in 2019 were 20,146.35 (95% confidence interval: 19,407.85 to 20,888.54) and 698.90 (466.54 to 1015.31) per 100,000, respectively. Over the past 30 years, the global prevalence of ID among children has been highest in low-SDI regions, particularly in Western Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. Since 1990, the prevalence and DALY of ID in children have been declining in most geographic regions. Nationally, Ecuador, China, and Chile have shown the most significant decreases in prevalence. The greatest decline in age-standardized DALY rate was observed in Ecuador, while Burkina Faso experienced the highest increase. Bhutan had the highest prevalence and DALY rates in 2019. On the age level, the prevalence was relatively higher among the <5 years age group. At the gender dimension, the prevalence of ID in children overall was more pronounced in girls than in boys, as was the case for DALY.

Conclusion

Although the burden of ID in children has been declining, this disease remains a major public health problem, especially in countries with low SDI. Children younger than 5 years of age are an important group for whom targeted measures are needed to reduce the burden of ID.

Associations between physical inactivity and dementia prevalence: ecological study using global data

OBJECTIVES

Given the predicted rise in dementia prevalence around the world, targeting modifiable risk factors (often lifestyle related) is a priority. This work sought to understand the role of physical inactivity (PI) as a modifiable risk factor for dementia.

STUDY DESIGN

Ecological study using globally available ecological data (both 2010 and 2016) from 192 countries.

METHODS

Age-standardised PI prevalence and dementia prevalence data were accessed from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease Study. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between PI and dementia, with stratified analyses used to further explore the impact of sex, WHO region, and World Bank income group on the relationship.

RESULTS

Linear regression showed a positive association between inactivity and dementia prevalence in 2010 (b = 1.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.04, 2.71] P = 0.044) and 2016 (coefficient = 2.52 [95% CI: 1.07, 3.96] P = 0.0007). Sub-group analyses of sex-specific data showed the strength of the relationship was stronger in men than in women. Rates of both dementia and inactivity rose with increasing world income group.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis of global data indicates the presence of a positive relationship between prevalence of PI and dementia prevalence, which has increased in strength with time, and is stronger in men than in women. This highlights the importance of public health interventions on a global scale to reduce the percentage of the population failing to reach or exceed the recommended physical activity guidelines.

Custom machine learning algorithm for large-scale disease screening - taking heart disease data as an example

Heart disease accounts for millions of deaths worldwide annually, representing a major public health concern. Large-scale heart disease screening can yield significant benefits both in terms of lives saved and economic costs. In this study, we introduce a novel algorithm that trains a patient-specific machine learning model, aligning with the real-world demands of extensive disease screening. Customization is achieved by concentrating on three key aspects: data processing, neural network architecture, and loss function formulation. Our approach integrates individual patient data to bolster model accuracy, ensuring dependable disease detection. We assessed our models using two prominent heart disease datasets: the Cleveland dataset and the UC Irvine (UCI) combination dataset. Our models showcased notable results, achieving accuracy and recall rates beyond 95 % for the Cleveland dataset and surpassing 97 % accuracy for the UCI dataset. Moreover, in terms of medical ethics and operability, our approach outperformed traditional, general-purpose machine learning algorithms. Our algorithm provides a powerful tool for large-scale disease screening and has the potential to save lives and reduce the economic burden of heart disease.

Converging global health agendas and universal health coverage: financing whole-of-government action through UHC

UN member states have committed to universal health coverage (UHC) to ensure all individuals and communities receive the health services they need without suffering financial hardship. Although the pursuit of UHC should unify disparate global health challenges, it is too commonly seen as another standalone initiative with a singular focus on the health sector. Despite constituting the cornerstone of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals, UHC-related commitments, actions, and metrics do not engage with the major drivers and determinants of health, such as poverty, gender inequality, discriminatory laws and policies, environment, housing, education, sanitation, and employment. Given that all countries already face multiple competing health priorities, the global UHC agenda should be used to reconcile, rationalise, prioritise, and integrate investments and multisectoral actions that influence health. In this paper, we call for greater coordination and coherence using a UHC+ lens to suggest new approaches to funding that can extend beyond biomedical health services to include the cross-cutting determinants of health. The proposed intersectoral co-financing mechanisms aim to support the advancement of health for all, regardless of countries' income.

Global burden and influencing factors of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes in adults aged 20-59 years, 1990-2019

Population structure and lifestyles may have contributed to the epidemiological status of Chronic Kidney Disease due to Type 2 Diabetes (CKD-T2D). This study is a secondary data analysis. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, we describe the changes in CKD-T2D burden and its influencing factors in the population aged 20-59 years from 1990 to 2019. Globally, the incidence, death, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rate of CKD-T2D showed an upward trend and increased with age, and the burden in males was higher than that in females. Population growth and aging were important driving factors for the increase of CKD-T2D DALY burden, while high systolic blood pressure and high body-mass index were the primary attributable risk factors. High body-mass index exhibited higher contributions to high Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI) countries, whereas low SDI countries were more impacted by high systolic blood pressure. The population attributable fraction of CKD-T2D DALY caused by high body-mass index was positively correlated with SDI, while high temperature and lead exposure were negatively correlated. Therefore, strengthening disease screening for people aged 20-59 years and formulating early intervention measures based on the level of socioeconomic development may effectively alleviate the burden of CKD-T2D.

Treatment-seeking behaviour among 15-49-year-olds with self-reported heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes: a national cross-sectional study in India

BACKGROUND

Eighty per cent of India´s non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality is due to four conditions: heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes, which are primarily cause-amenable through treatment. Based on Andersen's behavioural model of health services use, the current study aimed to identify the predisposing, enabling, and need factors associated with treatment-seeking status among people self-reporting the four main NCDs in India.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using secondary data. Usual residents aged 15-49 who self-reported cancer (n = 1 056), chronic respiratory disease (n = 10 534), diabetes (n = 13 501), and/or heart disease (n = 5 861) during the fifth National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-5), 2019-21, were included. Treatment-seeking status was modelled separately for each disease using survey-adjusted multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

3.9% of India´s 15-49-year-old population self-reported ≥ 1 of the four main NCDs (0.1% cancer, 1.4% chronic respiratory disease, 2% diabetes, 0.8% heart disease). The percentage that had sought treatment for their condition(s) was 82%, 68%, 76%, and 74%, respectively. Greater age and having ≥ 1 of the NCDs were associated with greater odds of seeking disease-specific treatment. People in the middle or lower wealth quintiles had lower odds of seeking care than the wealthiest 20% for all conditions. Women with diabetes or chronic respiratory disease had greater odds of seeking disease-specific treatment than men. Muslims, the unmarried, and those with health insurance had greater odds of seeking cancer treatment than Hindus, the married, and the uninsured.

CONCLUSION

Predisposing, enabling, and need factors are associated with treatment-seeking status among people reporting the four major NCDs in India, suggesting that multiple processes inform the decision to seek disease-specific care among aware cases. Successfully encouraging and enabling as many people as possible who knowingly live with major NCDs to seek treatment is likely contingent on a multi-pronged approach to healthcare policy-making. The need to improve treatment uptake through accessible healthcare is further underscored by the fact that one-fifth (cancer) to one-third (chronic respiratory disease) of 15-49-year-olds reporting a major NCD have never sought treatment despite being aware of their condition.

Divergences and gaps in life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy in Mexico: Contribution analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Life expectancy (LE) and Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) are summary indicators that reflect a population's general life conditions and measure inequities in health outcomes. The objective of this study was to identify the differences in LE and HALE by sex, age group, and state in Mexico from 1990 to 2019. Also, to evaluate whether the changes in HALE are related to sociodemographic indicators and indicators of access to and quality of health services.

METHODS

A secondary analysis was performed based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Data were obtained for LE (by sex and state) and HALE (by sex, age group, and state) for the years 1990, 2010, and 2019. The correlations between HALE with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index were estimated for 1990 and 2019 (by total population and sex).

RESULTS

LE and HALE had an absolute increase of 6.7% and 6.4% from 1990 to 2019, mainly among women, although they spent more years in poor health (11.8 years) than men. The patterns of LE and HALE were heterogeneous and divergent by state. In 2019, the difference in HALE (for both sex) between the states with the highest (Hidalgo) and the lowest (Chiapas) value was 4.6 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Progress in LE and HALE has slowed in recent years; HALE has even had setbacks in some states. Gaps between men and women, as well as between states, are persistent. Public and population policymaking should seek to lengthen LE and focus on ensuring that such years are spent in good health and with good quality of life.

'It's about time'. Dissemination and evaluation of a global health systems strengthening roadmap for musculoskeletal health - insights and future directions

Actions towards the health-related Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 typically focus on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) associated with premature mortality, with less emphasis on NCDs associated with disability, such as musculoskeletal conditions-the leading contributor to the global burden of disability. Can systems strengthening priorities for an underprioritised NCD be codesigned, disseminated and evaluated? A 'roadmap' for strengthening global health systems for improved musculoskeletal health was launched in 2021. In this practice paper, we outline dissemination efforts for this Roadmap and insights on evaluating its reach, user experience and early adoption. A global network of 22 dissemination partners was established to drive dissemination efforts, focussing on Africa, Asia and Latin America, each supported with a suite of dissemination assets. Within a 6-month evaluation window, 52 Twitter posts were distributed, 2195 visitors from 109 countries accessed the online multilingual Roadmap and 138 downloads of the Roadmap per month were recorded. Among 254 end users who answered a user-experience survey, respondents 'agreed' or 'strongly agreed' the Roadmap was valuable (88.3%), credible (91.2%), useful (90.1%) and usable (85.4%). Most (77.8%) agreed or strongly agreed they would adopt the Roadmap in some way. Collection of real-world adoption case studies allowed unique insights into adoption practices in different contexts, settings and health system levels. Diversity in adoption examples suggests that the Roadmap has value and adoption potential at multiple touchpoints within health systems globally. With resourcing, harnessing an engaged global community and establishing a global network of partners, a systems strengthening tool can be cocreated, disseminated and formatively evaluated.

Nanotechnology in coronary heart disease

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major causes of death and disability worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among older populations. Conventional diagnostic and therapeutic approaches have limitations such as low sensitivity, high cost and side effects. Nanotechnology offers promising alternative strategies for the diagnosis and treatment of CHD by exploiting the unique properties of nanomaterials. In this review, we use bibliometric analysis to identify research hotspots in the application of nanotechnology in CHD and provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art. Nanomaterials with enhanced imaging and biosensing capabilities can improve the early detection of CHD through advanced contrast agents and high-resolution imaging techniques. Moreover, nanomaterials can facilitate targeted drug delivery, tissue engineering and modulation of inflammation and oxidative stress, thus addressing multiple aspects of CHD pathophysiology. We discuss the application of nanotechnology in CHD diagnosis (imaging and sensors) and treatment (regulation of macrophages, cardiac repair, anti-oxidative stress), and provide insights into future research directions and clinical translation. This review serves as a valuable resource for researchers and clinicians seeking to harness the potential of nanotechnology in the management of CHD. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the one of leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Nanotechnology offers new strategies for diagnosing and treating CHD by exploiting the unique properties of nanomaterials. This review uses bibliometric analysis to uncover research trends in the use of nanotechnology for CHD. We discuss the potential of nanomaterials for early CHD detection through advanced imaging and biosensing, targeted drug delivery, tissue engineering, and modulation of inflammation and oxidative stress. We also offer insights into future research directions and potential clinical applications. This work aims to guide researchers and clinicians in leveraging nanotechnology to improve CHD patient outcomes and quality of life.

Laryngeal Cancer: Epidemiology, Etiology, and Prevention: A Narrative Review

Laryngeal cancer comprises 30%-40% of head and neck malignancies, and it is the most common malignancy in otolaryngology. The main risk factors for laryngeal cancer are tobacco use, excessive alcohol consumption, gastroesophageal reflex, Plummer-Vinson syndrome, exposure to heat, chemicals, and some viral infections. This literature review summarizes all known data over the past decade with an assessment of the main etiological factors related to cancer incidence, general measurement issues in the cancer epidemiology and the current state of science in relation to laryngeal cancer. The geographical distribution of laryngeal cancer also reveals some important aspects. Europe remains the most prevalent continent for this type of malignancy, whilst the epidemiologic burden in Africa remains low. Overall, there are clear differences in morbidity and mortality from laryngeal cancer between urban and rural areas, with gender inequalities. In some countries, the incidence rates are high in rural areas, and in some, such as in China, the urban population is more affected. High rates of laryngeal cancer are closely associated with both low average income and a high percentage of the population with lower-than-average education countries with higher Socio-demographic Index (SDI) have made greater improvements in the treatment of LC than countries with lower SDI. Epidemiological data on risk factors can provide valuable information for developing cancer prevention strategies.

Primary-level and community worker interventions for the prevention of mental disorders and the promotion of well-being in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

There is a significant research gap in the field of universal, selective, and indicated prevention interventions for mental health promotion and the prevention of mental disorders. Barriers to closing the research gap include scarcity of skilled human resources, large inequities in resource distribution and utilization, and stigma.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of delivery by primary workers of interventions for the promotion of mental health and universal prevention, and for the selective and indicated prevention of mental disorders or symptoms of mental illness in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To examine the impact of intervention delivery by primary workers on resource use and costs.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Global Index Medicus, PsycInfo, WHO ICTRP, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to 29 November 2021.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of primary-level and/or community health worker interventions for promoting mental health and/or preventing mental disorders versus any control conditions in adults and children in LMICs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Standardized mean differences (SMD) or mean differences (MD) were used for continuous outcomes, and risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data, using a random-effects model. We analyzed data at 0 to 1, 1 to 6, and 7 to 24 months post-intervention. For SMDs, 0.20 to 0.49 represented small, 0.50 to 0.79 moderate, and ≥ 0.80 large clinical effects. We evaluated the risk of bias (RoB) using Cochrane RoB2.

MAIN RESULTS

Description of studies We identified 113 studies with 32,992 participants (97 RCTs, 19,570 participants in meta-analyses) for inclusion. Nineteen RCTs were conducted in low-income countries, 27 in low-middle-income countries, 2 in middle-income countries, 58 in upper-middle-income countries and 7 in mixed settings. Eighty-three RCTs included adults and 30 RCTs included children. Cadres of primary-level workers employed primary care health workers (38 studies), community workers (71 studies), both (2 studies), and not reported (2 studies). Interventions were universal prevention/promotion in 22 studies, selective in 36, and indicated prevention in 55 RCTs. Risk of bias The most common concerns over risk of bias were performance bias, attrition bias, and reporting bias. Intervention effects 'Probably', 'may', or 'uncertain' indicates 'moderate-', 'low-', or 'very low-'certainty evidence. *Certainty of the evidence (using GRADE) was assessed at 0 to 1 month post-intervention as specified in the review protocol. In the abstract, we did not report results for outcomes for which evidence was missing or very uncertain. Adults Promotion/universal prevention, compared to usual care: - probably slightly reduced anxiety symptoms (MD -0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.27 to -0.01; 1 trial, 158 participants) - may slightly reduce distress/PTSD symptoms (SMD -0.24, 95% CI -0.41 to -0.08; 4 trials, 722 participants) Selective prevention, compared to usual care: - probably slightly reduced depressive symptoms (SMD -0.69, 95% CI -1.08 to -0.30; 4 trials, 223 participants) Indicated prevention, compared to usual care: - may reduce adverse events (1 trial, 547 participants) - probably slightly reduced functional impairment (SMD -0.12, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.15; 4 trials, 663 participants) Children Promotion/universal prevention, compared to usual care: - may improve the quality of life (SMD -0.25, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.11; 2 trials, 803 participants) - may reduce adverse events (1 trial, 694 participants) - may slightly reduce depressive symptoms (MD -3.04, 95% CI -6 to -0.08; 1 trial, 160 participants) - may slightly reduce anxiety symptoms (MD -2.27, 95% CI -3.13 to -1.41; 1 trial, 183 participants) Selective prevention, compared to usual care: - probably slightly reduced depressive symptoms (SMD 0, 95% CI -0.16 to -0.15; 2 trials, 638 participants) - may slightly reduce anxiety symptoms (MD 4.50, 95% CI -12.05 to 21.05; 1 trial, 28 participants) - probably slightly reduced distress/PTSD symptoms (MD -2.14, 95% CI -3.77 to -0.51; 1 trial, 159 participants) Indicated prevention, compared to usual care: - decreased slightly functional impairment (SMD -0.29, 95% CI -0.47 to -0.10; 2 trials, 448 participants) - decreased slightly depressive symptoms (SMD -0.18, 95% CI -0.32 to -0.04; 4 trials, 771 participants) - may slightly reduce distress/PTSD symptoms (SMD 0.24, 95% CI -1.28 to 1.76; 2 trials, 448 participants).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence indicated that prevention interventions delivered through primary workers - a form of task-shifting - may improve mental health outcomes. Certainty in the evidence was influenced by the risk of bias and by substantial levels of heterogeneity. A supportive network of infrastructure and research would enhance and reinforce this delivery modality across LMICs.

Changing profiles of cardiovascular disease and risk factors in China: a secondary analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the changing profiles of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and modifiable risk factors is essential for CVD prevention and control. We aimed to report the comprehensive trends in CVD and risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data on the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of total CVD and its 11 subtypes for China were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The CVD burden attributable to 12 risk factors was also retrieved. A secondary analysis was conducted to summarize the leading causes of CVD burden and attributable risk factors.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the number of CVD incidence, death, and DALYs considerably increased by 132.8%, 89.1%, and 52.6%, respectively. Stroke, ischemic heart disease, and hypertensive heart disease accounted for over 95.0% of CVD deaths in 2019 and remained the top three causes during the past 30 years. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized rate of stroke decreased significantly (percentage of decreased incidence: -9.3%; death: -39.8%; DALYs: -41.6%), while the rate of ischemic heart disease increased (percentage of increased incidence: 11.5%; death: 17.6%; DALYs: 2.2%). High systolic blood pressure, unhealthy diet, tobacco, and air pollution continued to be the major contributors to CVD deaths and DALYs (attributing to over 70% of the CVD burden), and the high body mass index (BMI)-associated CVD burden had the largest increase between 1990 and 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant increases in the number of CVD incident cases, deaths, and DALYs suggest that the CVD burden is still a concern. Intensified strategies and policies are needed to maintain promising progress in stroke and to reduce the escalating burden of ischemic heart disease. The CVD burden attributable to risk factors has not yet made adequate achievements; even worse, high BMI has contributed to the increasing CVD burden.

Global and regional quality of care index (QCI) by gender and age in oesophageal cancer: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to examine the quality of care by age and gender in oesophageal cancer using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.

METHODS

Patients aged 20 and over with oesophageal cancer were included in this longitudinal study using GBD 1990-2019 data. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to classify the regions. We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to calculate the Quality of Care Index (QCI). The QCI was rescaled into a 0-100 single index, demonstrating that the higher the score, the better the QC.

RESULTS

The age-standardized QCI for oesophageal cancer dramatically increased from 23.5 in 1990 to 41.1 in 2019 for both sexes, globally. The high SDI regions showed higher QCI than the rest of the regions (45.1 in 1990 and 65.7 in 2019) whereas the low SDI regions had the lowest QCI, which showed a 4.5% decrease through the years (from 13.3 in 1990 to 12.7 in 2019). Globally, in 2019, the QCI showed the highest scores for patients aged 80-84, reported 48.2, and the lowest score for patients aged 25-29 reported 31.5, for both sexes. Globally, in 2019, age-standardized Gender Disparity Ratio (GDR) was 1.2, showing higher QCI in females than males.

CONCLUSION

There were fundamental differences in the QCI both globally and regionally between different age groups as well as between males and females. To achieve the goal of providing high-quality services equally to people in need in all over the world, health systems need to invest in effective diagnostic services, treatments, facilities, and equipment and to plan for screening and surveillance of high-risk individuals.

Global, regional, and national incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease and trend analysis from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

In the context of the population growing and aging worldwide, the incidence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease increased rapidly. This study aimed to describe the burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease, providing an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis on the global and regional levels and time trends from 1900 to 2019.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to obtain data for this analysis. Non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in the Global Burden of Disease study includes both non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease and non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease. The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by location, year, sex, age, and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage change was calculated to represent the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Spearman's rank order correlation was used to determine the correlation between socio-demographic index and the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 1.65 million (95% uncertainty interval, 1.56-1.76 million) incident cases, 0.16 million (95% uncertainty interval, 0.14-0.18 million) death cases, and 2.79 million (95% uncertainty interval, 2.52-3.31 million) disability-adjusted life years of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, death cases, and disability-adjusted life years in 2019 increased by 104.58%, 210.60%, and 167.62%, respectively, the age-standardized incidence rate (estimated annual percentage change, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 0.49) increased due to population growth, and the age-standardized death rates (estimated annual percentage change, -0.32; 95% confidence interval, -0.39 to -0.25) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (estimated annual percentage change, -0.81; 95% confidence interval, -0.87 to -0.74) decreased during this period. Regarding the socio-demographic index, the highest age-standardized incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease were found in high-socio-demographic index countries in 2019. Meantime, the age-standardized incidence rate remained increased from 1990 to 2019, while significant decreases were found in the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate. Females have higher age-standardized incidence rate, while higher age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate belong to males globally during the period of 1990-2019. Increasing trends were observed for both incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates with age. High systolic blood pressure was the leading cause for non-rheumatic valvular heart disease across all ages.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease remained increased, while age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate decreased, resulting from the growing population worldwide and improving medical resources. The aged, who has high systolic blood pressure and diet high in sodium, should pay more attention to, especially in high-socio-demographic index regions. With the population aging, the number of patients who require heart valve replacement is estimated to increase significantly in the future. Effective measures are warranted to control and treat the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease.

The association between renal hyperfiltration and mortality is not mediated by diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Renal hyperfiltration (RHF), recently established as a risk factor for mortality, is linked to current and subsequent diabetes mellitus (DM). DM could be seen as a mediator in the pathway between RHF and mortality. However, the mediating role of DM in the relationship between RHF and mortality is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Based on a cohort of 2682 Finnish men from the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study (KIHD) followed-up for 35 years, we evaluated the association between RHF and mortality, with DM as a mediator, following two methods: a classic mediation analysis approach, using Cox regression, and a counterfactual framework for mediation analysis, using g-computation, Cox regression, and logistic regression. RHF is associated with an increased risk of mortality. This association was not mediated by DM. Under a counterfactual framework and on a hazard ratio scale, RHF association with mortality had a total effect of 1.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.98) and a controlled direct effect of 1.66 (1.34-2.16).

CONCLUSION

An association between RHF and mortality risk, independent of DM, was established. RHF should be considered, managed, and followed-up as a mortality-associated condition, regardless of the status of DM. We suggest clinicians to consider including RHF screening in routine clinical care, especially diabetic care.

Out-of-hospital deaths in Mongolia: a nationwide cohort study on the proportion, causes, and potential impact of emergency and critical care services

Background

Little is known about the proportion and causes of out-of-hospital deaths in Mongolia. In this study, we aimed to determine the proportion and causes of out-of-hospital deaths in Mongolia during a six-month observation period before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

In a retrospective study, the Mongolian National Death Registry was screened for all deaths occurring from 01 to 06/2020. The proportion and causes of out-of-hospital deaths, causes of out-of-hospital deaths likely treatable by emergency/critical care interventions, as well as sex, regional and seasonal differences in the proportion and causes of out-of-hospital deaths were determined. The primary endpoint was the proportion and causes of out-of-hospital death in children and adults. Descriptive statistical methods, the Fisher's Exact, multirow Chi2-or Mann-Whitney-U-rank sum tests were used for data analysis.

Findings

Five-thousand-five-hundred-fifty-three of 7762 deaths (71.5%) occurred outside of a hospital. The proportion of out-of-hospital deaths was lower in children than adults (39.3% vs. 74.8%, p < 0.001). Trauma, chronic neurological diseases, lower respiratory tract infections, congenital birth defects, and neonatal disorders were the causes of out-of-hospital deaths resulting in most years of life lost in children. In adults, chronic heart diseases, trauma, liver cancer, poisonings, and self-harm caused the highest burden of premature mortality. The proportion of out-of-hospital deaths did not differ between females and males (70.5% vs. 72.2%, p = 0.09). The proportion (all, p < 0.001; adults, p < 0.001; children, p < 0.001) and causes (adults, p < 0.001; children, p < 0.001) of out-of-hospital deaths differed between Mongolian regions and Ulaanbaatar. The proportion of out-of-hospital deaths was higher during winter than spring/summer months (72.3% vs. 69.9%, p = 0.03). An expert panel estimated that 49.3% of out-of-hospital deaths were likely treatable by emergency/critical care interventions.

Interpretation

With regional and seasonal variations, about 75% of Mongolian adults and 40% of Mongolian children died outside of a hospital. Heart diseases, trauma, cancer, and poisonings resulted in most years of life lost. About half of the causes of out-of-hospital deaths could be treated by emergency/critical care interventions.

Funding

Institutional funding.

Understanding the convergence of social enterprise, digital health, and citizen engagement for co-producing integrated Person-Centred health services: A critical review and theoretical framework

INTRODUCTION

To achieve Universal Health Coverage and the United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda for 2030, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended the use of social enterprise, digital technology, and citizen engagement in the delivery of Integrated People-Centred Health Services (IPCHS) as part of its strategic vision for 21st century primary care.

METHODS

We conducted a hermeneutic review of frameworks, models and theories on social enterprise, digital health, citizen engagement and IPCHS. This involved multiple iterative cycles of (i) searching and acquisition, followed by (ii) critical analysis and interpretation of literature to assemble arguments and evidence for conceptual relationships until information saturation was reached. This process identified a set of constructs which we synthesised into a testable framework.

RESULTS

Several interdisciplinary frameworks, models and theories explain how social enterprises could use digital technology, and citizen engagement to enable the technical and social integration required to facilitate people-centred primary care. Innovative approaches can be used to maintain financial sustainability while delivering IPCHS at lower cost to vulnerable and marginalised populations in both developed and developing countries.

CONCLUSION

This framework provides a theoretical grounding to guide empirical inquiry into how social enterprises use digital technology to engage citizens in co-producing IPCHS.

Global, regional, and national trends in mesothelioma burden from 1990 to 2019 and the predictions for the next two decades

Objectives

We aimed to analyze the secular trends in mesothelioma burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time.

Material and methods

Based on the mesothelioma incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from 1990 to 2019 in Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), calculated from joinpoint regression model, was used to describe the burden trends. An age-period-cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on mesothelioma incidence and mortality trends. The mesothelioma burden was projected by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Results

Globally, there were the significant declines in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.3, P < 0.001), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC = -0.3, 95%CI: -0.4,-0.2, P < 0.001), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) (AAPC = -0.5, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.4, P < 0.001) of mesothelioma overall 30 years. For regions, Central Europe presented the most distinct increases and the most substantial decrease was observed in Andean Latin America on all ASRs (age-standardized rates) from 1990 to 2019. At national level, the largest annualized growth for full-range trends of incidence, mortality, and DALYs was in Georgia. Conversely, the fastest descent of all ASRs was observed in Peru. The ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in 2039 predicted 0.33, 0.27, and 6.90 per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusions

The global burden of mesothelioma declined over the past 30 years, with variability across regions and countries/territories, and this trend will continue in the future.

Mindfulness-based Practices in Workers to Address Mental Health Conditions: A Systematic Review

The effectiveness of mindfulness techniques in addressing mental health conditions in workers is uncertain. However, it could represent a therapeutic tool for workers presenting with such conditions. Our objective was to assess the effects of mindfulness-based practices for workers diagnosed with mental health conditions. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials. Participants included were workers with a mental health condition. Interventions included any mindfulness technique, compared to any nonmindfulness interventions. Outcomes were scores on validated psychiatric rating scales. A total of 4,407 records were screened; 202 were included for full-text analysis; 2 studies were included. The first study (Finnes et al., 2017) used Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) associated or not with Workplace Dialogue Intervention (WDI), compared to treatment as usual. At 9 months follow-up, for the ACT group, depression scores improved marginally (standardized mean difference [SMD]: -0.06, p = 0.021), but anxiety scores were worse (SMD: 0.15, p = 0.036). Changes in mental health outcomes were not statistically significant for the ACT + WDI group. In the second study (Grensman et al., 2018), no statistically significant change in mental health scales has been observed after completion of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy compared to cognitive behavioral therapy. Substantial heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. This systematic review did not find evidence that mindfulness-based practices provide a durable and substantial improvement of mental health outcomes in workers diagnosed with mental health conditions.

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide, little comprehensive or recent evidence of the burden of NCDs among adolescents and young adults in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions is available. We aimed to report population shifts in people aged 10-24 years and their NCD burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We retrieved data from GBD 2019 for people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions from 1990 to 2019. We presented population shifts and analysed deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for NCDs. We also quantified the associations of deaths and DALYs with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Universal Health Coverage (UHC) effective coverage index using Spearman correlation and linear regression analyses. Percentages are reported to 1 decimal place and rates are reported to 2 decimal places.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 559·2 million young people aged 10-24 years in the South-East Asia region and 335·0 million in the Western Pacific region; India and China remained the countries with greatest number of this age group. In 1990-2019, India had an absolute increase of 139·4 million adolescents, while China had a decrease of 134·3 million. In 2019, NCDs accounted for 27·3% (95% uncertainty interval 25·1 to 29·2) and 34·6% (33·5 to 36·1) of total deaths, and 49·8% (45·3 to 54·4) and 65·1% (60·6 to 69·3) of total DALYs in the South-East Asia and the Western Pacific regions, respectively. Neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and mental disorders were the leading causes of NCD burden in 42 countries. Kiribati had the highest rates of deaths (62·82 [50·77 to 76·11] per 100 000 population), YLLs (4364·73 [3545·04 to 5275·63] per 100 000 population), and DALYs (9368·73 [7713·65 to 11340·99] per 100 000 population) for NCDs, whereas Australia (6976·51 [5044·46 to 9190·01] per 100 000 population) and New Zealand (6716·81 [4827·25 to 8827·69] per 100 000 population) had the largest rates of YLDs due to NCDs. From 1990 to 2019 across both regions, the rate of death due to NCDs declined by over a third (-32·8% [-41·1 to -22·9] in the South-East Asia region and -40·0% [-48·6 to -30·4] in the Western Pacific region), and DALYs decreased by about 12% (-12·0% [-16·8 to -7·7] in the South-East Asia region and -12·8% [-17·7 to -8·7] in the Western Pacific region), whereas the proportion of NCD burden relative to all-cause burden increased (45·7% [32·9 to 61·7] for deaths and 41·2% [35·2 to 48·8] for DALYs in the South-East Asia region; 11·8% [7·1 to 21·5] for deaths and 18·2% [14·6 to 22·0] for DALYs in the Western Pacific region). The rate of deaths and DALYs due to NCDs decreased monotonically alongside increases in SDI (rs=-0·57 [95% CI -0·81 to -0·32] for deaths and rs=-0·30 [-0·61 to 0·03] for DALYs). The rate of deaths (rs=-0·89 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·80]) and DALYs (rs=-0·67 [-0·93 to -0·41]) due to NCDs also decreased alongside increases in the UHC effective coverage index.

INTERPRETATION

Specific preventive and health service measures are needed for adolescents and young adults in countries with different levels of socioeconomic development to reduce the burden from NCDs.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Boron Applications in Prevention, Diagnosis and Therapy for High Global Burden Diseases

The role of boron-containing compounds (BCCs) in medicine is growing [...]

Combining systems thinking approaches and implementation science constructs within community-based prevention: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Systems science offers methods for designing population health interventions while implementation science provides specific guidance for successful implementation. Integrating systems and implementation science may strengthen implementation and enhance and sustain systemic change to achieve system-level outcomes. Little is known about the extent to which these two approaches have been integrated to date. This review aimed to identify and synthesise the peer-reviewed literature that has reported the combined use of systems thinking approaches and implementation science constructs (within the same study), to deliver population health interventions.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of peer-reviewed original research was conducted across six databases from 2009 to 2021. Journal manuscripts were included if they: (1) reported on a population health study conducted in a community, (2) reported the use of a systems method in the design of the intervention, and (3) used an implementation science theory, framework or model in the delivery of the intervention. Data extracted related to the specific systems methods and definitions and implementation science constructs used. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess study quality.

RESULTS

Of the 9086 manuscripts returned, 320 manuscripts were included for full-text review. Of these, 17 manuscripts that reported on 14 studies were included in the final extraction. The most frequently reported systems methods were a 'whole of community systems approach' (n = 4/14) and 'community-based system dynamics' (n = 2/14). Nineteen different implementation science theories, frameworks and models were used for intervention delivery, with RE-AIM being the only framework used in more than one study.

CONCLUSION

There are few published peer-reviewed studies using systems thinking and implementation science for designing and delivering population health interventions. An exploration of synergies is worthwhile to operationalise alignment and improve implementation of systems thinking approaches. Review protocol registration PROSPERO CRD42021250419.

Confronted With Death: Factors Affecting End of Life Decisions in the Intensive Care Unit

To determine how often care is limited at the end of life and the factors that are associated with this decision, we reviewed the medical records of all patients that passed away in the intensive care units (ICU) of Aga Khan University. We found that a majority of patients had Do-Not-Resuscitate orders in place at the time of death. Our analysis yielded 6 variables that were associated with the decision to limit care. These are patient age, sex, duration of mechanical ventilation, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤8 at any point during ICU stay, GCS ≤8 in the first 24 hours following ICU admission, and mean arterial pressure <65 mm of Hg while on vasopressors in the first 24 hours following ICU admission. These variables require further study and should be carefully considered during end of life discussions to allow for optimal management at the end of life.

Sequence-oriented sensitive analysis for PM2.5 exposure and risk assessment using interactive process mining

The World Health Organization has estimated that air pollution will be one of the most significant challenges related to the environment in the following years, and air quality monitoring and climate change mitigation actions have been promoted due to the Paris Agreement because of their impact on mortality risk. Thus, generating a methodology that supports experts in making decisions based on exposure data, identifying exposure-related activities, and proposing mitigation scenarios is essential. In this context, the emergence of Interactive Process Mining-a discipline that has progressed in the last years in healthcare-could help to develop a methodology based on human knowledge. For this reason, we propose a new methodology for a sequence-oriented sensitive analysis to identify the best activities and parameters to offer a mitigation policy. This methodology is innovative in the following points: i) we present in this paper the first application of Interactive Process Mining pollution personal exposure mitigation; ii) our solution reduces the computation cost and time of the traditional sensitive analysis; iii) the methodology is human-oriented in the sense that the process should be done with the environmental expert; and iv) our solution has been tested with synthetic data to explore the viability before the move to physical exposure measurements, taking the city of Valencia as the use case, and overcoming the difficulty of performing exposure measurements. This dataset has been generated with a model that considers the city of Valencia's demographic and epidemiological statistics. We have demonstrated that the assessments done using sequence-oriented sensitive analysis can identify target activities. The proposed scenarios can improve the initial KPIs-in the best scenario; we reduce the population exposure by 18% and the relative risk by 12%. Consequently, our proposal could be used with real data in future steps, becoming an innovative point for air pollution mitigation and environmental improvement.

A comparison of the burden of knee osteoarthritis attributable to high body mass index in China and globally from 1990 to 2019

Background

Excess body mass index (BMI) plays a key role in the onset and progression of knee osteoarthritis (knee OA). However, the burden of knee OA attributable to high BMI at the global, Chinese, and regional levels have received far too little attention. The aim of this study is to provide evidence to support the design of policy by investigating long-term trends of years lived with disability (YLDs) for knee OA.

Methods

To illustrate the trends of YLDs for knee OA attributable to high BMI and the temporal trends of the YLDs rate by age, period, and cohort, Joinpoint regression software and age-period-cohort (APC) were used to analyze the YLDs data of knee OA from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019.

Results

In China, there were 549,963.5 YLDs for knee OA attributable to high BMI in 2019, which had increased by 460.7% since 1990. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) of knee OA attributable to high BMI trended upwards. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of knee OA attributable to high BMI in China and globe were 3.019, 1.419%, respectively. The longitudinal age curve of the APC model showed that the YLDs rates of knee OA due to high BMI increased with age, and YLDs rates were higher among females than males. The period rate ratios (RRs) of knee OA due to high BMI increased significantly. The cohort RRs of knee OA due to high BMI increased among those born between 1900 and 1970. The net drifts of knee OA attributable to high BMI in China and globe were above 1. Compared with global condition, the net drift values of knee OA attributable to high BMI in China was higher. Compared with females, males had higher net drift value. Countries with high socio-demographic index (SDI) have a much higher burden of knee OA caused by high BMI than countries with low SDI.

Conclusion

In China, high BMI is a substantial cause of knee OA, the incidence of which has been increasing since 1990. In addition, women and the elderly are more vulnerable to knee OA caused by high BMI. The Chinese government must take the long-term impact of high BMI on knee OA into account and implement effective public health policies and resort to interventions to reduce the burden as soon as possible.

The effect of a community-based group intervention on chronic disease self-management in a vulnerable population

Introduction

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are predominantly related to modifiable health behaviors and account for 74% of global deaths at present. Behavior modification through self-management is a strategy to prevent NCDs. Chronic Disease Self-Management Programs (CDSMPs) have demonstrated improvements in health behaviors, health status, and use of healthcare.

Objective

We evaluated the effects of a 6-week CDSMP on self-efficacy, health behaviors, mental health, health-related quality of life (HR-QoL), and health responsibilities among vulnerable populations with chronic disease in Europe.

Methods

A prospective cohort study with a 6-month pre-post single-group design was conducted in five European countries. The intervention targeted adults with chronic conditions and low socioeconomic status, as well as their caregivers. The intervention was a 6-week community-based CDSMP in a group setting. Outcomes were measured per self-report questionnaire at baseline and 6-month follow-up: self-efficacy, health behaviors, mental health, HR-QoL, and health responsibilities.

Results

Of 1,844 participants, 1,248 (67.7%) completed follow-up and attended ≥4 sessions. For the chronic condition group, the following outcome measures at follow-up significantly improved compared with baseline (all P < 0.002): self-efficacy (SEMCD-6 6.7 vs. 6.4), mental health (PHQ-8 6.3 vs. 7.0), HR-QoL (SF-12 PCS 42.3 vs. 40.2, SF-12 MCS 42.8 vs. 41.4), health utility (EQ-5D-5L 0.88 vs. 0.86), self-rated health (EQ-5D-5L 67.2 vs. 63.9), communication with healthcare providers (2.28 vs. 2.11), understanding information (3.10 vs. 3.02), number of doctor visits (3.61 vs. 4.97), accident and emergency department visits (0.25 vs. 0.48), total nights in a hospital (0.65 vs. 1.13), and perceived medical errors (19.6 vs. 28.7%). No significant changes were detected in dietary habits, physical activity, substance use, and sleep and fatigue. For caregivers without a chronic condition, only doctor visits significantly decreased (1.54 vs. 2.25, P < 0.001).

Discussion

This CDSMP was associated with improvement in self-efficacy, depression, HR-QoL, and health responsibilities over 6 months in a diverse European population with a chronic condition. However, additional interventions targeting lifestyle risk factors are needed to improve health outcomes.

Precision Nutrition: The Hype Is Exceeding the Science and Evidentiary Standards Needed to Inform Public Health Recommendations for Prevention of Chronic Disease

As dietary guidance for populations shifts from preventing deficiency disorders to chronic disease risk reduction, the biology supporting such guidance becomes more complex due to the multifactorial risk profile of disease and inherent population heterogeneity in the diet-disease relationship. Diet is a primary driver of chronic disease risk, and population-based guidance should account for individual responses. Cascading effects on evidentiary standards for population-based guidance are not straightforward. Precision remains a consideration for dietary guidance to prevent deficiency through the identification of population subgroups with unique nutritional needs. Reducing chronic disease through diet requires greater precision in (a) establishing essential nutrient needs throughout the life cycle in both health and disease; (b) considering effects of nutrients and other food substances on metabolic, immunological, inflammatory, and other physiological responses supporting healthy aging; and (c) considering healthy eating behaviors. Herein we provide a template for guiding population-based eating recommendations for reducing chronic diseases in heterogenous populations.

Nurse-Supervised Exercise for People with Stage IV Cancer: The EFICANCER Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of the EFICANCER individualized and supervised exercise program for people with gastrointestinal, breast, or non-small cell lung stage IV cancer, in terms of quality of life and functional capacity.

DATA SOURCES

Randomized controlled clinical trial with two parallel groups: EFICANCER (n = 47) and control (n = 43). Both groups received standard oncological care. In addition, the EFICANCER group participated in a nurse-supervised exercise program. Primary outcome was cancer-specific (EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire) and general quality of life (SF-36) at baseline and after 2, 6, and 12 months. Secondary outcomes were functional capacity (6-minute walking test), strength, and fatigue. The evolution in both groups was compared over 12 months using mixed-effect longitudinal models; 74.47% of patients completed at least one session of the program. At 12 months, EFICANCER group had better scores in cancer-related quality of life, with a difference between groups of 15.7 points (95% confidence interval 4.4 to 25.9) and in functional capacity, with a difference of 4.5 points (95% confidence interval -0.5 to 9.5). No significant differences in any other secondary variables were observed.

CONCLUSION

The EFICANCER primary care nurse supervised exercise program is safe and feasible and improves cancer patient's outcomes.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE

Providing the best care and trying to improve the quality of life of cancer patients are essential parts of nursing practice. Eficancer adds a new dimension to nursing practice by providing greater attention and care to patients during treatment through the supervision of physical exercise, thereby contributing to improve the quality of life of this population.

Global, Regional, and National Epidemiology of Diabetes in Children From 1990 to 2019

IMPORTANCE

Diabetes in children is a global epidemic that causes various medical conditions associated with an increased incidence of premature death.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the trends in diabetes incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in children, with risk factors for diabetes-associated death, from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a cross-sectional study that used data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 in 204 countries and territories. Children with diabetes who were aged 0 to 14 years were included in the analysis. Data were analyzed from December 28, 2022, to January 10, 2023.

EXPOSURE

Childhood diabetes from 1990 to 2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence, all-cause and cause-specific deaths, DALYs, and corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). These trends were stratified according to region, country, age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI).

RESULTS

A total of 1 449 897 children (738 923 male [50.96%]) were included in the analysis. In 2019, there were 227 580 incident cases of childhood diabetes worldwide. Cases of childhood diabetes increased by 39.37% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 30.99%-45.45%) from 1990 to 2019. Over 3 decades, diabetes-associated deaths decreased from 6719 (95% UI, 4823-8074) to 5390 (95% UI, 4450-6507). The global incidence rate increased from 9.31 (95% UI, 6.56-12.57) to 11.61 (95% UI, 7.98-15.98) per 100 000 population; however, the diabetes-associated death rate decreased from 0.38 (95% UI, 0.27-0.46) to 0.28 (95% UI, 0.23-0.33) per 100 000 population. Among the 5 SDI regions, the low SDI region had the highest childhood diabetes-associated mortality rate in 2019. Regionally, North Africa and the Middle East had the largest increase in incidence (EAPC, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.94-2.17). Among 204 countries, Finland had the highest national incidence of childhood diabetes in 2019 (31.60 per 100 000 population; 95% UI, 22.65-40.36), Bangladesh had the highest diabetes-associated mortality rate (1.16 per 100 000 population; 95% UI, 0.51-1.70), and the United Republic of Tanzania had the highest DALYs rate (100.16 per 100 000 population; 95% UI, 63.01-155.88). Globally, environmental/occupational risk, nonoptimal temperature, high temperature, and low temperature were key risk factors for childhood diabetes-associated mortality in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Childhood diabetes is an increasing global health challenge with rising incidence. Results of this cross-sectional study suggest that despite the global decline in deaths and DALYs, the number of deaths and DALYs remains high among children with diabetes, especially in low SDI regions. Improved understanding of the epidemiology of diabetes in children may facilitate prevention and control.

National sex- and age-specific burden of blindness and vision impairment by cause in Mexico in 2019: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Reliable national estimations for blindness and vision impairment are fundamental to assessing their burden and developing public health policies. However, no comprehensive analysis is available for Mexico. Therefore, in this observational study we describe the national burden of blindness and vision loss by cause and severity during 2019.

Methods

Using public data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we present national prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) counts and crude and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 people) of total, severity- and cause-specific blindness and vision impairment with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) by sex and age group.

Findings

In Mexico, the burden of blindness and vision impairment was estimated at 11.01 million (95% UI, 9.25-13.11) prevalent cases and 384.96 thousand (259.57-544.24) YLDs during 2019. Uncorrected presbyopia caused the highest burden (6.06 million cases, 4.36-8.08), whereas severe vision loss and blindness affected 619.40 thousand (539.40-717.73) and 513.84 thousand (450.59-570.98) people, respectively. Near vision loss and refraction disorders caused 78.7% of the cases, whereas neonatal disorders and age-related macular degeneration were among the least frequent. Refraction disorders were the main cause of moderate and severe vision loss (61.44 and 35.43%), and cataracts were the second most frequent cause of blindness (26.73%). Females suffered an overall higher burden of blindness and vision impairment (54.99% and 52.85% of the total cases and YLDs), and people >50 years of age suffered the highest burden, with people between 70 and 74 years being the most affected.

Interpretation

Vision loss represents a public health problem in Mexico, with women and older people being the most affected. Although the causes of vision loss contribute differentially to the severity of visual impairment, most of the impairment is avoidable. Consequently, a concerted effort at different levels is needed to alleviate this burden.

Funding

This study received no funding.

Biotechnological advances and applications of human pluripotent stem cell-derived heart models

In recent years, significant biotechnological advancements have been made in engineering human cardiac tissues and organ-like models. This field of research is crucial for both basic and translational research due to cardiovascular disease being the leading cause of death in the developed world. Additionally, drug-associated cardiotoxicity poses a major challenge for drug development in the pharmaceutical and biotechnological industries. Progress in three-dimensional cell culture and microfluidic devices has enabled the generation of human cardiac models that faithfully recapitulate key aspects of human physiology. In this review, we will discuss 3D pluripotent stem cell (PSC)-models of the human heart, such as engineered heart tissues and organoids, and their applications in disease modeling and drug screening.

A Matter of the Heart: Why It Is Time to Change How We Talk About Maternal Mortality

As the global burden of disease shifts from "diseases of poverty" such as diarrhea to "diseases of affluence" like diabetes and heart disease, a parallel shift is underway in maternal health. Maternal death from hemorrhage is decreasing, while deaths resulting from exacerbation of underlying chronic disease are on the rise.

Global incidence, prevalence and disease burden of silicosis: 30 years' overview and forecasted trends

BACKGROUND

Globally, silicosis accounts for 90% of all pneumoconiosis cases and is a serious public health issue. It is characterized by progressive inflammation and irreversible pulmonary fibrosis. A comprehensive analysis at temporal, spatial and population levels with the most updated data from GBD 2019 is provided in this study to estimate the disease burden of silicosis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2029.

METHODS

We delineated silicosis data on incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as age-standardized rates (ASRs) across 30 years from GBD 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to detect temporal changes and estimate annual percentage change (APC) of each trend segment. Measures were stratified by time, location, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model was applied to elaborate ASR trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections to the next 10 years.

RESULTS

Globally, silicosis incident, prevalent cases, and DALYs increased by 64.6%, 91.4%, and 20.8%, respectively. However, all the corresponding ASRs showed overall downward trends with an estimated average APC (AAPC) of -0.5(-0.7 to -0.3), -0.2(-0.5 to 0.0), and - 2.0(-2.2 to -1.8), respectively. Middle and high-middle SDI regions carried the heaviest disease burden. The highest disease burden of silicosis was mainly transferred to the older from 1990 to 2019. The trend of ASRs demonstrated a rapid decline between 2005 and 2019, followed by a continuous decline until 2029.

CONCLUSION

Though disease burden of silicosis has been on a decline in general from 1990 to 2019, which shows a promising prospect but cannot be ignored. We should pay more attention to implementing preventive tactics and improving the life quality of present sufferers.

Evaluating the global, regional, and national impact of syphilis: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

Syphilis is a global public health concern. This study aimed to assess the global and regional burden of syphilis from 1990 to 2019. Disease burden was evaluated using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and prevalence. Data were extracted from the 2019 global burden of disease Study, an open database available for download. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the syphilis burden over time. In 2019, the total number of prevalent cases of syphilis was 49.71 million worldwide. The ASR of prevalence was stable from 1990 to 2019 with an EAPC of 0.00 (95% CI - 0.10-0.11). The number of DALYs caused by syphilis was 7.36 million in 2019, reflecting a reduction of 16.38% compared with that in 1990 (8.80 million). The ASR of DALYs exhibited a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC =  - 1.01; 95% CI - 1.19 to - 0.84), with the highest rates observed in the younger age group (< 14 years old). In 2019, the highest ASR of DALYs was found in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (239.21/100,000), and the lowest in high SDI regions (3.14/100,000). Generally, the ASR of DALYs decreased as the SDI increased. The top three countries with the highest ASR of DALYs for syphilis were the Solomon Islands, Equatorial Guinea, and Liberia. While the global prevalence of syphilis remained persistently high from 1990 to 2019, there has been a recent decrease in the ASR of DALYs. Increased attention should be dedicated to younger populations and regions characterized by low SDIs.

Infant Feeding Pattern Clusters Are Associated with Childhood Health Outcomes

(1) Background: Feeding behavior habits have a pattern with a certain tendency during infancy. We aimed to identify the associations between feeding patterns in infancy and the subsequent 10-year childhood disease burden. (2) Methods: Data from 236,372 infants were obtained from the national health insurance and screening program records in South Korea. Parent-administered questionnaires during infancy provided details on the feeding type and types/frequency of complementary food for analyzing feeding patterns. The outcomes were all-cause hospitalization and the development of 15 representative childhood diseases until the age of 10 years. Anthropometric measurements obtained at 6 years of age were analyzed. To estimate outcome risks while considering multiple risk factors, we employed a Cox proportional hazard and modified Poisson regression. (3) Results: Three clusters were identified: high prevalence of breastfeeding with regular exposure to a variety of solid foods (n = 116,372, cluster 1), similar prevalence of breastfeeding and formula feeding with less exposure to solid foods (n = 108,189, cluster 2), and similar prevalence of breastfeeding and formula feeding with the least exposure to solid foods in infancy (n = 11,811, cluster 3). Compared with cluster 1, children in clusters 2 and 3 had increased risks of all-cause hospitalization (hazard ratio (HR), (95% confidence interval (CI)), 1.04 (1.03-1.06) and 1.08 (1.05-1.11), respectively). Children in clusters 2 and 3 had an increased risk of upper respiratory infection, pneumonia, and gastroenteritis, as well as neurobehavioral diseases. Overweight/obesity at the age of 6 years was associated with clusters 2 and 3. (4) Conclusions: Feeding patterns in infancy were associated with an increased risk of childhood disease burden.

One-Year Medical Utilization and Mortality in Home Health and Nursing Home Care Recipients from Northern Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

Home health care (HHC) and nursing home care (NHC) are mainstays of long-term service in the aged population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the factors associated with 1-year medical utilization and mortality in HHC and NHC recipients in Northern Taiwan.

DESIGN

This study employed a prospective cohort design.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled 815 HHC and NHC participants who started receiving medical care services from the National Taiwan University Hospital, Beihu Branch between January 2015 and December 2017.

METHODS

Multivariate Poisson regression modeling was used to quantify the relationship between care model (HHC vs NHC) and medical utilization. Cox proportional-hazards modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios and factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Compared with NHC recipients, HHC recipients had higher 1-year utilization of emergency department services [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.04, 95% CI 1.16-3.59] and hospital admissions (IRR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.93), as well as longer total hospital length of stay (LOS) (IRR 1.61, 95% CI 1.52-1.71) and LOS per hospital admission (IRR 1.31, 95% CI 1.22-1.41). Living at home or in a nursing home did not affect the 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Compared with NHC recipients, HHC recipients had a higher number of emergency department services and hospital admissions, as well as longer hospital LOS. Policies should be developed to reduce emergency department and hospitalization utilization in HHC recipients.

Objectively assessed sleep and physical activity in depression subtypes and its mediating role in their association with cardiovascular risk factors

The aims of this study were to investigate the associations of major depressive disorder (MDD) and its subtypes (atypical, melancholic, combined, unspecified) with actigraphy-derived measures of sleep, physical activity and circadian rhythms; and test the potentially mediating role of sleep, physical activity and circadian rhythms in the well-established associations of the atypical MDD subtype with Body Mass Index (BMI) and the metabolic syndrome (MeS). The sample consisted of 2317 participants recruited from an urban area, who underwent comprehensive somatic and psychiatric evaluations. MDD and its subtypes were assessed via semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Sleep, physical activity and circadian rhythms were measured using actigraphy. MDD and its subtypes were associated with several actigraphy-derived variables, including later sleep midpoint, low physical activity, low inter-daily stability and larger intra-individual variability of sleep duration and relative amplitude. Sleep midpoint and physical activity fulfilled criteria for partial mediation of the association between atypical MDD and BMI, and physical activity also for partial mediation of the association between atypical MDD and MeS. Our findings confirm associations of MDD and its atypical subtype with sleep and physical activity, which are likely to partially mediate the associations of atypical MDD with BMI and MeS, although most of these associations are not explained by sleep and activity variables. This highlights the need to consider atypical MDD, sleep and sedentary behavior as cardiovascular risk factors.

National situation, trends, and predictions of disease burden of atopic dermatitis in Chinese children and adolescents

Background

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is an important global health problem affecting children and adolescents and detailed national information of disease burden in China is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the national disease burden of AD in Chinese children and adolescent, to provide the temporal trends over the past 30 years and to predict the burden for the next 10 years.

Methods

The data of AD in China, including incidence, prevalence, and DALY, and population data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD study 2019), which were estimated using the DisMod-MR 2.1. We analyzed the three measures by age and sex; the age groups were <5 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years. The joinpoint regression analyses was conducted to assess the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict measures from 2020 to 2030.

Results

In 2019, the highest incidence case and rate were observed in <5 years group; for prevalence and disability adjusted life year (DALY), the groups of <5 years and 5-9 years showed similar higher levels and the groups of 10-14 years and 15-19 years had similar relatively lower levels. Overall, the male-to-female ratios were >1 in <5 years group and <1 in 10-14 and 15-19 age groups. The trend analyses found an overall trend of decrease in cases of the three measures; in recent about 3 years, slight increase trends were shown in cases and rates of the three measures in <5 years group. The prediction analyses found a slight decreasing trend for cases of these measures and a slight increasing trend for rates of these measures in the <5 years group in the next 10 years; the 5-9 years group was predicted to increase slightly in rates of the three measures.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the groups of <5 years and 5-9 years are two important populations that need targeted measures to reduce disease burden of AD in China. Regarding sex disparity, we should pay more attention to males in <5 years group and to females in 10-19 years group.

Magnitude and possible risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among street cleaners and solid waste workers: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

In the absence of a standardized work environment, insurance system, occupational safety measures and expanding workload an uptrend of musculoskeletal disorders secondary to occupational hazards is observed among a wide range of occupations in developing countries including street sweepers/cleaners. The aim of this study is to determine the burden and potential factors associated with musculoskeletal disorders among street cleaners/solid waste collectors in Gondar town, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was used to determine the burden and identify potential risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among street cleaners. Street cleaners (n = 422) working experience of at least one year were randomly selected from the community at their respective work sites (street). A face-to-face interview recorded the participant's response addressing socio-demographic, occupational, job satisfaction, disability related to basic ADL, physical measurements, and self-reported pain using the Nordic-Musculoskeletal questionnaire. The logistic regression model was created to identify potential factors associated with self-reported MSDs.

RESULTS

The sample consists of women street sweepers/cleaners (100%, n = 422, response rate 100%) with at least one-year of work experience with a mean age of 37.03 ± 8.26. About 40% of women sweepers were illiterate and 95% reported no job satisfaction. The overall prevalence of MSDs was 73% (n = 308, 95% CI; 68.5, 77.2), among them nearly 65% reported having experienced disability in performing basic ADL in the past 12 months. Low back pain was the most prevalent region (n = 216, 70.1% case versus MSDs n = 308). In univariate and multivariate logistics analysis, being overweight/obese (AOR of 4.91 (95%, 2.22, 10.87)), age group 35 and above (AOR 2.534 (1.51, 4.26)), not-satisfied with job (AOR 2.66 (1.05, 6.75)), and street cleaning distance of longer than 2 km (AOR 2.82 (1.64, 4.83)) were significantly associated with self-reported musculoskeletal disorder..

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated higher self-reported MSDs among street sweepers/cleaners. Modifiable predictors like overweight, lack of job satisfaction, and cleaning longer distance were identified to be associated. Hence, there is a need for ergonomic measures and policy to curb these factors to reduce the burden of MSD among women street sweepers.

Risk assessment of dietary factors in global pattern of ischemic heart disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years over 30 years

Objectives

The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by dietary factors, as well as the influencing factors with age, period, and cohort effects, in regions with different social-demographic status from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We extracted data on IHD mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) related to dietary risks from 1990 to 2019 as IHD burden measures. Hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze age- and time-related trends and the interaction between different dietary factors on the risk of IHD mortality and DALYs.

Results

Globally, there were 9.2 million IHD deaths and 182 million DALYs in 2019. Both the ASRs of death and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2019 (percentage change: -30.8% and -28.6%, respectively), particularly in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) areas. Low-whole-grain, low-legume, and high-sodium diets were the three main dietary factors that increased the risk of IHD burden. Advanced age [RR (95%CI): 1.33 (1.27, 1.39)] and being male [1.11 (1.06, 1.16)] were independent risk factors for IHD mortality worldwide and in all SDI regions. After controlling for age effects, IHD risk showed a negative period effect overall. Poor diets were positively associated with increased risk of death but were not yet statistically significant. Interactions between dietary factors and advanced age were observed in all regions after adjusting for related variables. In people aged 55 and above, low intake of whole grains was associated with an increased risk of IHD death [1.28 (1.20, 1.36)]. DALY risks showed a similar but more obvious trend.

Conclusion

IHD burden remains high, with significant regional variations. The high IHD burden could be attributed to advanced age, sex (male), and dietary risk factors. Dietary habits in different SDI regions may have varying effects on the global burden of IHD. In areas with lower SDI, it is recommended to pay more attention to dietary problems, particularly in the elderly, and to consider how to improve dietary patterns in order to reduce modifiable risk factors.

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter and cardiovascular disease: The mitigation role of environmental concerns

Although it is widely acknowledged that environmental concerns can reduce PM_2.5 pollution, few studies have empirically estimated whether environmental concerns could bring health benefits by mitigating PM_2.5 pollution. Here, we quantified government and media environmental concerns with text-mining algorithm, matched with cohort data along with high-resolution gridded PM_2.5 data. Accelerated failure time model and mediation model were used to explore the association between PM_2.5 exposure and onset time to cardiovascular events, and the mitigation effect of environmental concerns. Every 1 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 exposure was associated with shortened time to stroke and heart problem, with time ratios of 0.9900 and 0.9986, respectively. Each 1 unit increase in government and media environmental concerns, as well as their synergistic effect decreased PM_2.5 pollution by 0.32 %, 0.25 % and 0.46 %, respectively; and decrease PM_2.5 resulted in prolonged onset time to cardiovascular events. Mediation analysis revealed that reduced PM_2.5 mediated up to 33.55 % of the association between environmental concerns and onset time to cardiovascular events, suggesting that other mediation pathways were also possible. Associations of PM_2.5 exposure and environmental concerns with stroke and heart problem were similar in different subgroups. Overall, environmental concerns reduce risks of cardiovascular disease by mitigating PM_2.5 pollution and other pathways in a real-world data set. This study provides insights for low-and-middle-income countries to address air pollution and improve health co-benefit.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Pancreatic Cancer, 1990-2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIMS

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a malignant tumor with a strong invasive nature and low survival rate. We aimed to estimate the PC burden at the global, regional, and national levels in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Detailed data, including the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), were analyzed from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 530,297 (486,175-573,635) incident cases and 531,107 (491,948-566,537) deaths from PC in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 6.6 (6-7.1), and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 6.6 (6.1-7.1) per 100,000 person-years. PC caused 11,549,016 (10,777,405-12,338,912) DALYs, with an age-standardized rate of 139.6 (130.2-149.1) per 100,000 person-years. There were increases in estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of ASIR (0.83; 0.78-0.87), ASMR (0.77; 0.73-0.81), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) (0.67; 0.63-0.71). The global number of incident cases increased by 168.7%, from 197,348 (188,604-203,971) to 530,297 (486,175-573,635); the number of deaths increased by 168.2% from 198,051 (189,329-204,763) to 531,107 (491,948-566,537); and total DALYs increased by 148.5% from 4,647,207 (4,465,440-4,812,129) to 11,549,016 (10,777,405-12,338,912). East Asia and China recorded the highest number of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs. The proportion of deaths was attributable to smoking (21.4%), elevated fasting glucose (9.1%), and high BMI (6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study updated the epidemiological trends and risk factors for PC. PC remains a major hazard to the sustainability of health systems worldwide, with an increasing incidence rate and mortality from 1990 to 2019. More targeted strategies are required to prevent and treat PC.

Urinary proteomics combined with home blood pressure telemonitoring for health care reform trial-First progress report

High blood pressure (BP) and type-2 diabetes (T2DM) are forerunners of chronic kidney disease and left ventricular dysfunction. Home BP telemonitoring (HTM) and urinary peptidomic profiling (UPP) are technologies enabling risk stratification and personalized prevention. UPRIGHT-HTM (NCT04299529) is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, open-label, randomized trial with blinded endpoint evaluation designed to assess the efficacy of HTM plus UPP (experimental group) over HTM alone (control group) in guiding treatment in asymptomatic patients, aged 55-75 years, with ≥5 cardiovascular risk factors. From screening onwards, HTM data can be freely accessed by all patients and their caregivers; UPP results are communicated early during follow-up to patients and caregivers in the intervention group, but at trial closure in the control group. From May 2021 until January 2023, 235 patients were screened, of whom 53 were still progressing through the run-in period and 144 were randomized. Both groups had similar characteristics, including average age (62.0 years) and the proportions of African Blacks (81.9%), White Europeans (16.7%), women 56.2%, home (31.2%), and office (50.0%) hypertension, T2DM (36.4%), micro-albuminuria (29.4%), and ECG (9.7%) and echocardiographic (11.5%) left ventricular hypertrophy. Home and office BP were 128.8/79.2 mm Hg and 137.1/82.7 mm Hg, respectively, resulting in a prevalence of white-coat, masked and sustained hypertension of 40.3%, 11.1%, and 25.7%. HTM persisted after randomization (48 681 readings up to 15 January 2023). In conclusion, results predominantly from low-resource sub-Saharan centers proved the feasibility of this multi-ethnic trial. The COVID-19 pandemic caused delays and differential recruitment rates across centers.

Projected Global Trends in Ischemic Stroke Incidence, Deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years From 2020 to 2030

BACKGROUND

We projected global trends in ischemic stroke from 2020 to 2030 according to age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile.

METHODS

Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to project trends in the incidence of deaths from and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to ischemic stroke between 2020 and 2030. EAPCs were computed using generalized additive models and data from the Global Burden of Disease study during the 1990 to 2019 period.

RESULTS

The global age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke was projected to increase to 89.32 per 100 000 population in 2030 (EAPC=0.89), whereas the associated global age-standardized death and DALY rates were projected to decrease to 18.28 (EAPC, -3.58) and 500.37 per 100 000 (EAPC=-1.75), respectively, in 2030. The projections indicated a higher age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke among women than among men in 2030 (90.70 versus 87.64 per 100 000). The incidence rate of ischemic stroke was projected to increase across all age groups and SDI quintiles between 2020 and 2030. At the national level, the greatest increase in the age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke between 2020 and 2030 was projected to occur in Cyprus (EAPC=4.16), followed by Palestine (EAPC=3.50) and South Africa (EAPC=2.64). Additionally, the projections suggested increases in the age-standardized death and DALY rates due to ischemic stroke for countries in low-SDI quintiles (EAPC=3.68 and EAPC=5.30, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The projections indicated that the incidence rate of ischemic stroke will increase both sexes, all age groups, and all SDI quintiles and in some countries between 2020 and 2030. Furthermore, countries with a low SDI should be aware of potential increases in the age-standardized death and DALY due to ischemic stroke.

The challenges in protecting public health interests in multisectoral governance in the context of small island developing states: the case of tobacco control in Fiji and Vanuatu

BACKGROUND

The commercial determinants of health (CDoH) drive the rise of NCDs globally, and their regulation requires multisectoral governance. Despite existing recommendations to strengthen institutional structures, protecting public health interests can be challenging amidst industry interference and conflicting policy priorities, particularly in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where the need for rapid economic development is pronounced. Small island developing states (SIDS) face even more challenges in regulating CDoH because their unique socioeconomic, political, and geographic vulnerabilities may weaken institutional conditions that could aid health sector actors in protecting health interests. This study aims to explore the institutional conditions that shape health sector actors' capability to protect public health interests in tobacco governance in Fiji and Vanuatu.

METHODS

We employed a qualitative, exploratory case study design. We applied the administrative process theory to inform data collection and analysis. Seventy interviews were completed in Fiji and Vanuatu from 2018 to 2019.

RESULTS

The findings show that the protection of health interests in tobacco governance were not supported by the institutional conditions in Fiji and Vanuatu. While the policy processes formally ensured a level playing field between actors, policies were often developed through informal mechanisms, and the safeguards to protect public interests from vested private interests were not implemented adequately. SIDS vulnerabilities and weak regulation of political parties contributed to the politicisation of government in both states, resulting in high-level government officials' questionable commitment to protect public health interests. The system of checks and balances usually embedded into democratic governments appeared to be muted, and policymakers had limited bureaucratic autonomy to elevate health interests in multisectoral policymaking amidst high-level government officials' frequent rotation. Finally, capacity constraints aggravated by SIDS vulnerabilities negatively impacted health sector actors' capability to analyse policy alternatives.

CONCLUSIONS

Health sector actors in Fiji and Vanuatu were not supported by institutional conditions that could help them protect public health interests in multisectoral governance to regulate CDoH originating from the tobacco industry. Institutional conditions in these states were shaped by SIDS vulnerabilities but could be improved by targeted capacity building, governance and political system strengthening.

Sociodemographic and geographic inequalities in diagnosis and treatment of older adults' chronic conditions in India: a nationally representative population-based study

CONTEXT

Expeditious diagnosis and treatment of chronic conditions are critical to control the burden of non-communicable disease in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate sociodemographic and geographic inequalities in diagnosis and treatment of chronic conditions among adults aged 45 + in India.

METHODS

We used 2017-18 nationally representative data to estimate prevalence of chronic conditions (hypertension, diabetes, lung disease, heart disease, stroke, arthritis, cholesterol, and neurological) reported as diagnosed and percentages of diagnosed conditions that were untreated by sociodemographic characteristics and state. We used concentration indices to measure socioeconomic inequalities in diagnosis and lack of treatment. Fully adjusted inequalities were estimated with multivariable probit and fractional regression models.

FINDINGS

About 46.1% (95% CI: 44.9 to 47.3) of adults aged 45 + reported a diagnosis of at least one chronic condition and 27.5% (95% CI: 26.2 to 28.7) of the reported conditions were untreated. The percentage untreated was highest for neurological conditions (53.2%; 95% CI: 50.1 to 59.6) and lowest for diabetes (10.1%; 95% CI: 8.4 to 11.5). Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of any diagnosed condition was highest in the richest quartile (55.3%; 95% CI: 53.3 to 57.3) and lowest in the poorest (37.7%: 95% CI: 36.1 to 39.3). Conditional on reported diagnosis, the percentage of conditions untreated was highest in the poorest quartile (34.4%: 95% CI: 32.3 to 36.5) and lowest in the richest (21.1%: 95% CI: 19.2 to 23.1). Concentration indices confirmed these patterns. Multivariable models showed that the percentage of untreated conditions was 6.0 points higher (95% CI: 3.3 to 8.6) in the poorest quartile than in the richest. Between state variations in the prevalence of diagnosed conditions and their treatment were large.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensuring more equitable treatment of chronic conditions in India requires improved access for poorer, less educated, and rural older people who often remain untreated even once diagnosed.

Global burden and trends of the Entamoeba infection-associated diseases from 1990 to 2019: An observational trend study

BACKGROUND

Entamoeba infection-associated diseases (EIADs) in humans are a worldwide public health problem, but there is a lack of a global picture of EIADs, which is vital to prevention and control.

METHODS

We applied 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data collected from multiple sources at global, national and regional levels. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) were extracted as the main measure of the burden of EIADs. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the trends of age-standardised DALY rates by age, sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Besides, a generalized linear model was conducted to analyze the influence of sociodemographic factors on the DALY rate of EIADs.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 2,539,799 (95% UI 850,865-6,186,972) DALY cases attributable to Entamoeba infection, and the global age-standardised DALY rate of EIADs was 36.77/100,000 (95% UI: 12.03-90.49). Although over the past 30 years, the age-standardised DALY rate of EIADs presented significantly declining trends [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -3.79%, 95% CI: -4.05% - -3.53%], it has remained a heavy burden among the age group of <5 years (257.43/100,000, 95% UI: 67.73-676.78) and the low SDI regions (100.47/100,000, 95% UI: 32.27-249.09). The age-standardized DALY rate in high-income North America and Australia had an increasing trend (AAPC = 0.38%, 95% CI: 0.47% - 0.28% and 0.38%, 95% CI: 0.46% - 0.29%, respectively). Furthermore, the DALY rates in high SDI regions showed statistically significant increasing trends among the age groups of 14-49, 50-69 years and 70+ years, with AAPCs of 1.01% (95% CI: 0.87% - 1.15%), 1.58% (95% CI: 1.43% - 1.73%), and 2.93% (95% CI: 2.58% - 3.29%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past 30 years, the burden of EIADs has declined significantly. However, it has still caused a high burden in the low SDI regions and the age group of <5 years. At the same time, in adults and the elderly of the high SDI regions, the increasing trends of Entamoeba infection-associated burden should also be given more attention.