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A Qualitative Study on Concerns, Needs, and Expectations of Hospital Patients Related to Climate Change: Arguments for a Patient-Centered Adaptation. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18116105. [PMID: 34198870 PMCID: PMC8201225 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18116105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2021] [Revised: 05/26/2021] [Accepted: 06/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
This study explores the concerns, needs, and expectations of inpatients with the goal to develop a patient-centered climate change adaptation agenda for hospitals. Statements of patients from geriatrics, internal medicine, psychiatry, and surgery (N = 25) of a German tertiary care hospital were analyzed using semi-structured interviews and the framework method. Areas of future adaptation were elaborated in joint discussions with transdisciplinary experts. Concerns included the foresight of severe health problems. The requested adaptations comprised the change to a patient-centered care, infrastructural improvements including air conditioning, and adjustments of the workflows. Guidelines for the behavior of patients and medical services appropriate for the climatic conditions were demanded. The patient-centered agenda for adaptation includes the steps of partnering with patients, reinforcing heat mitigation, better education for patients and medical staff, and adjusting work processes. This is the first study demonstrating that hospital patients are gravely concerned and expect adjustments according to climate change. Since heat is seen as a major risk by interviewees, the fast implementation of published recommendations is crucial. By synthesizing inpatients’ expectations with scientific recommendations, we encourage patient-centered climate change adaptation. This can be the start for further collaboration with patients to create climate change resilient hospitals.
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Kan H. Climate Change, Weather Conditions, and Population Health. China CDC Wkly 2021; 3:483-484. [PMID: 34594918 PMCID: PMC8422231 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2021.124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2021] [Accepted: 06/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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Lay CR, Sarofim MC, Vodonos Zilberg A, Mills DM, Jones RW, Schwartz J, Kinney PL. City-level vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in the USA and future projections: a geographically clustered meta-regression. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e338-e346. [PMID: 34022145 PMCID: PMC9422466 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00058-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Extreme heat exposure can lead to premature death. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events, resulting in many additional heat-related deaths globally, as well as changing the nature of extreme cold events. At the same time, vulnerability to extreme heat has decreased over time, probably due to a combination of physiological, behavioural, infrastructural, and technological adaptations. We aimed to account for these changes in vulnerability and avoid overstated projections for temperature-related mortality. We used the historical observed decrease in vulnerability to improve future mortality estimates. METHODS We used historical mortality and temperature data from 208 US cities to quantify how observed changes in vulnerability from 1973 to 2013 affected projections of temperature-related mortality under various climate scenarios. We used geographically structured meta-regression to characterise the relationship between temperature and mortality for these urban populations over the specified time period. We then used the fitted relationships to project mortality under future climate conditions. FINDINGS Between Oct 26, 2018, and March 9, 2020, we established that differences in vulnerability to temperature were geographically structured. Vulnerability decreased over time in most areas. US mortalities projected from a 2°C increase in mean temperature decreased by more than 97% when using 2003-13 data compared with 1973-82 data. However, these benefits declined with increasing temperatures, with a 6°C increase showing only an 84% decline in projected mortality based on 2003-13 data. INTERPRETATION Even after accounting for adaptation, the projected effects of climate change on premature mortality constitute a substantial public health risk. Our work suggests large increases in temperature will require additional mitigation to avoid excess mortality from heat events, even in areas with high air conditioning coverage in place. FUNDING The US Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates.
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Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Scovronick N, Sera F, Royé D, Schneider R, Tobias A, Astrom C, Guo Y, Honda Y, Hondula DM, Abrutzky R, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Lavigne E, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti N, Pascal M, Schneider A, Katsouyanni K, Samoli E, Mayvaneh F, Entezari A, Goodman P, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, de’Donato F, Hashizume M, Alahmad B, Diaz MH, De La Cruz Valencia C, Overcenco A, Houthuijs D, Ameling C, Rao S, Ruscio FD, Carrasco-Escobar G, Seposo X, Silva S, Madureira J, Holobaca IH, Fratianni S, Acquaotta F, Kim H, Lee W, Iniguez C, Forsberg B, Ragettli MS, Guo YLL, Chen BY, Li S, Armstrong B, Aleman A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Dang TN, Dung DV, Gillett N, Haines A, Mengel M, Huber V, Gasparrini A. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2021; 11:492-500. [PMID: 34221128 PMCID: PMC7611104 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 219] [Impact Index Per Article: 73.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - N. Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - F. Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications ‘G. Parenti’, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - D. Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - R. Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Φ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK
| | - A. Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - C. Astrom
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Y. Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Y. Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - D. M. Hondula
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - R. Abrutzky
- Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - S. Tong
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | | | | | - E. Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - P. Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
| | - N. Valdes Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
| | - H. Kan
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - S. Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - J. Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - A. Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - H. Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - E. Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - J. J. K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - N. Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - M. Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - A. Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - K. Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - E. Samoli
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - F. Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - A. Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - P. Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - A. Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - P. Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - F. de’Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - M. Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, School of International Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - B. Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - M. Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - C. De La Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - A. Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | - D. Houthuijs
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - C. Ameling
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - S. Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - F. Di Ruscio
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - G. Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine ‘Alexander von Humboldt’, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - X. Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - S. Silva
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - J. Madureira
- Department of Enviromental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal
- EPIUnit—Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - I. H. Holobaca
- Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - S. Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - F. Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - H. Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - W. Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - C. Iniguez
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - B. Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - M. S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Y. L. L. Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan,Taiwan
| | - B. Y. Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan,Taiwan
| | - S. Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - B. Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - A. Aleman
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - A. Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - J. Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - T. N. Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - D. V. Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - N. Gillett
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Colombia, Canada
| | - A. Haines
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Φ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
| | - M. Mengel
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - V. Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain
| | - A. Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Silveira IH, Cortes TR, de Oliveira BFA, Junger WL. Projections of excess cardiovascular mortality related to temperature under different climate change scenarios and regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 197:110995. [PMID: 33713709 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2020] [Revised: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is an urgent need for more information about the climate change impact on health in order to strengthen the commitment to tackle climate change. However, few studies have quantified the health impact of climate change in Brazil and in the Latin America region. In this paper, we projected the impacts of temperature on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality according to two climate change scenarios and two regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities. METHODS We estimated the temperature-CVD mortality relationship in 21 Brazilian cities, using distributed lag non-linear models in a two-stage time-series analysis. We combined the observed exposure-response functions with the daily temperature projected under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, and two regionalized climate model simulations, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. RESULTS We observed a trend of reduction in mortality related to low temperatures and a trend of increase in mortality related to high temperatures, according to all the investigated models and scenarios. In most places, the increase in mortality related to high temperatures outweighed the reduction in mortality related to low temperatures, causing a net increase in the excess temperature-related mortality. These trends were steeper according to the higher emission scenario, RCP8.5, and to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model. According to RCP8.5, our projections suggested that the temperature-related mortality fractions in 2090-99 compared to 2010-2019 would increase by 8.6% and 1.7%, under Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, respectively. According to RCP4.5, these values would be 0.7% and -0.6%. CONCLUSIONS For the same climate model, we observed a greater increase trend in temperature-CVD mortality according to RCP8.5, highlighting a greater health impact associated with the higher emission scenario. Our results may be useful to support public policies and strategies for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, particularly in the health sector.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ismael Henrique Silveira
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil; Institute of Social Medicine, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
| | - Taísa Rodrigues Cortes
- Institute of Social Medicine, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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207
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Alessio HM, Bassett DR, Bopp MJ, Parr BB, Patch GS, Rankin JW, Rojas-Rueda D, Roti MW, Wojcik JR. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Physical Inactivity: Is Active Transportation Part of the Solution? Med Sci Sports Exerc 2021; 53:1170-1178. [PMID: 33986228 DOI: 10.1249/mss.0000000000002569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Active transportation is defined as self-propelled, human-powered transportation modes, such as walking and bicycling. In this article, we review the evidence that reliance on gasoline-powered transportation is contributing to global climate change, air pollution, and physical inactivity and that this is harmful to human health. Global climate change poses a major threat to human health and in the future could offset the health gains achieved over the last 100 yr. Based on hundreds of scientific studies, there is strong evidence that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to global climate change. Climate change is associated with increased severity of storms, flooding, rising sea levels, hotter climates, and drought, all leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Along with increases in atmospheric CO2, other pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter (e.g., PM2.5) are released by combustion engines and industry, which can lead to pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases. Also, as car ownership and vehicle miles traveled have increased, the shift toward motorized transport has contributed to physical inactivity. Each of these global challenges has resulted in, or is projected to result in, millions of premature deaths each year. One of the ways that nations can mitigate the health consequences of climate change, air pollution, and chronic diseases is through the use of active transportation. Research indicates that populations that rely heavily on active transportation enjoy better health and increased longevity. In summary, active transportation has tremendous potential to simultaneously address three global public health challenges of the 21st century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helaine M Alessio
- Department of Kinesiology, Nutrition, and Health, Miami University, Miami, OH
| | - David R Bassett
- Department of Kinesiology, Recreation, and Sport Studies, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
| | - Melissa J Bopp
- Department of Kinesiology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA
| | - Brian B Parr
- Department of Exercise and Sports Science, University of South Carolina, Aiken, SC
| | | | - Janet W Rankin
- Department of Human Nutrition, Foods, and Exercise, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
| | - David Rojas-Rueda
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
| | - Melissa W Roti
- Movement Science, Sport, and Leisure Studies Department, Westfield State University, Westfield, MA
| | - Janet R Wojcik
- Department of Physical Education, Sport, and Human Performance, Winthrop University, Rock Hill, SC
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208
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Guo F, Do V, Cooper R, Huang Y, Zhang P, Ran J, Zhang Q, Tian L, Fu Z. Trends of temperature variability: Which variability and what health implications? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 768:144487. [PMID: 33444866 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2020] [Revised: 11/16/2020] [Accepted: 12/09/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
A large majority of climate change studies carried out to date are on changes in mean climate, which have comparatively downplayed variability. In terms of trend analysis or forecast, the scientific output and common knowledge for global warming are much more robust than for changes in temperature variability. Quantification of temperature variability adds another dimension of temporal scale, requiring immense labor and presenting great uncertainty. Regardless, this endeavor is necessary since changes in ambient temperature variabilities could also contribute to current and future human health burden besides changes in mean quantities. Here, we review the current literature on trends of surface air temperature variability defined at a range of timescales, aiming to tease out the welter of evidence and thus improving the scientific recognition of changes in air temperature variability in the context of climate change. The findings of reviewed studies from numerous regions differ substantially over various temporal scales. In general, the ambient temperature variability on short time scales (e.g., diurnal or inter-day) shows a downward trend, while it is increasing on longer time scales (e.g., inter-annual). We then move beyond the review and deliver an extended discussion of potential implications for future research related to ambient temperature variability. We highlight the need to consider the methodological choices, especially timescales of interest, in the trend analysis as well as health impact studies. Continued research focusing on temperature variability at multiple timescales, with concerted efforts from scientists of all relevant stripes, is meaningful in synthesizing knowledge and reducing uncertainties surrounding air temperature variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fang Guo
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Vivian Do
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong, China; Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, USA
| | - Rachel Cooper
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong, China; Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MA, USA
| | - Yu Huang
- School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Pei Zhang
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Jinjun Ran
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong, China
| | - Linwei Tian
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Zuntao Fu
- School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
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209
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Hanigan IC, Dear KBG, Woodward A. Increased ratio of summer to winter deaths due to climate warming in Australia, 1968-2018. Aust N Z J Public Health 2021; 45:504-505. [PMID: 33900671 DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.13107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Revised: 02/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine if global warming has changed the balance of summer and winter deaths in Australia. METHODS Counts of summer and winter cause-specific deaths of subjects aged 55 and over for the years 1968-2018 were entered into a Poisson time-series regression. Analysis was stratified by states and territories of Australia, by sex, age and cause of death (respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases). The warmest and coldest subsets of seasons were compared. RESULTS Warming over 51 years was associated with a long-term increase in the ratio of summer to winter mortality from 0.73 in the summer of 1969 to 0.83 in the summer of 2018. The increase occurred faster in years that were warmer than average. CONCLUSIONS Mortality in the warmest and coldest times of the year is converging as annual average temperatures rise. Implications for public health: If climate change continues, deaths in the hottest months will come to dominate the burden of mortality in Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ivan C Hanigan
- University Centre for Rural Health, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales.,Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
| | - Keith B G Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, South Australia
| | - Alistair Woodward
- School of Population Health, The University of Auckland, New Zealand
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Chen CC, Wang YR, Wang YC, Lin SL, Chen CT, Lu MM, Guo YLL. Projection of future temperature extremes, related mortality, and adaptation due to climate and population changes in Taiwan. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 760:143373. [PMID: 33172628 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2020] [Revised: 10/22/2020] [Accepted: 10/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Extreme temperature events have been observed to appear more frequently and with greater intensity in Taiwan in recent decades due to climate change, following the global trend. Projections of temperature extremes across different climate zones and their impacts on related mortality and adaptation have not been well studied. METHODS We projected site-specific future temperature extremes by statistical downscaling of 8 global climate models followed by Bayesian model averaging from 2021 to 2060 across Taiwan under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We then calculated the attributable mortality (AM) in 6 municipalities and in the eastern area by multiplying the city/county- and degree-specific relative risk of mortality according to the future population projections. We estimated the degree of adaptation to heat by slope reduction of the projected AM to be comparable with that in 2018. RESULTS The annual number of hot days with mean temperatures over 30 °C was predicted to have a substantial 2- to 5-fold increase throughout the residential areas of Taiwan by the end of 2060 under RCP8.5, whereas the decrease in cold days was less substantial. The decrease in cold-related mortality below 15 °C was projected to outweigh heat-related mortality for the next two decades, and then heat-related mortality was predicted to drastically increase and cross over cold-related mortality, surpassing it from 2045 to 2055. Adjusting for future population size, the percentage increase in heat-related deaths per 100,000 people could increase by more than 10-fold under the worst scenario (RCP8.5), especially for those over 65 years old. The heat-related impacts will be most severe in southern Taiwan, which has a tropical climate. There is a very high demand for heat-adaptation prior to 2050 under all RCP scenarios. CONCLUSIONS Spatiotemporal variations in AM in cities in different climate zones are projected in Taiwan and are expected to have a net negative effect in the near future before shifting to a net positive effect from 2045 to 2055. However, there is an overall positive and increasing trend of net effect for elderly individuals under all the emission scenarios. Active adaptation plans need to be well developed to face future challenges due to climate change, especially for the elderly population in central and southern Taiwan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chu-Chih Chen
- Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan; Research Center for Environmental Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Taiwan.
| | - Yin-Ru Wang
- Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Institute of Population Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Chun Wang
- Department of Bioenvironmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taiwan.
| | - Shiou-Li Lin
- Institute of Marine Environmental Science and Technology, National Taiwan Normal University, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Ta Chen
- Institute of Marine Environmental Science and Technology, National Taiwan Normal University, Taiwan
| | - Mong-Ming Lu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
| | - Yue-Liang L Guo
- Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taiwan.
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211
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Masuda YJ, Garg T, Anggraeni I, Ebi K, Krenz J, Game ET, Wolff NH, Spector JT. Warming from tropical deforestation reduces worker productivity in rural communities. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1601. [PMID: 33707454 PMCID: PMC7952402 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21779-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2020] [Accepted: 01/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
The accelerating loss of tropical forests in the 21st century has eliminated cooling services provided by trees in low latitude countries. Cooling services can protect rural communities and outdoor workers with little adaptive capacity from adverse heat exposure, which is expected to increase with climate change. Yet little is still known about whether cooling services can mitigate negative impacts of heat on labor productivity among rural outdoor workers. Through a field experiment in Indonesia, we show that worker productivity was 8.22% lower in deforested relative to forested settings, where wet bulb globe temperatures were, on average, 2.84 °C higher in deforested settings. We demonstrate that productivity losses are driven by behavioral adaptations in the form of increased number of work breaks, and provide evidence that suggests breaks are in part driven by awareness of heat effects on work. Our results indicate that the cooling services from forests have the potential for increasing resilience and adaptive capacity to local warming. It is expected that tropical deforestation and related increases in heat exposure have negative impacts on labour productivity, but the size of the effect is not well known. Here, the authors show that deforestation reduces productivity by 8.22% in rural Indonesia and causes behavioural adaptation responses like more work breaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuta J Masuda
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, TX, USA.
| | - Teevrat Garg
- School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA. .,Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), Berkeley, CA, USA. .,Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Germany.
| | - Ike Anggraeni
- Faculty of Public Health, Mulawarman University, Samarinda, Indonesia
| | - Kristie Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Washington, USA.,Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Jennifer Krenz
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Edward T Game
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, TX, USA
| | | | - June T Spector
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Washington, USA
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212
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Hu J, Hou Z, Xu Y, Zhou M, Zhou C, Xiao Y, Yu M, Huang B, Xu X, Lin L, Liu T, Xiao J, Gong W, Hu R, Li J, Jin D, Qin M, Zhao Q, Yin P, Xu Y, Zeng W, Li X, He G, Chen S, Guo L, Huang C, Ma W. Life loss of cardiovascular diseases per death attributable to ambient temperature: A national time series analysis based on 364 locations in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 756:142614. [PMID: 33082046 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2020] [Revised: 09/06/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although the effect of ambient temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVDs) has been well explored, studies using years of life lost (YLLs) as the outcome especially evaluating the average life loss per death attributable to temperatures were rare. We examine the associations between ambient temperature and YLLs of CVDs, and further quantify temperature-related life loss per death. METHODS Daily YLL rates were calculated using death data from 364 locations across China during 2006-2017, and meteorological data were collected for the same period. A distributed-lag nonlinear model and meta-regression were applied to examine the relationships between temperature and YLL rates of CVDs. Subgroup analyses by age, gender, region, and cause-specific CVDs were investigated. The total YLLs and average YLLs per death attributable to temperature were further quantified to assess life loss caused by non-optimal temperature. RESULTS Both high and low temperatures significantly increased YLL rates of CVDs, with greater effects for cold than heat. Cerebrovascular diseases (CEDs) account for the largest proportion (47.17%) of total YLLs of CVDs attributable to non-optimal temperature. On average, life loss per CVD death attributable to non-optimal temperatures was 1.51 (95% eCI: 1.33, 1.69) years, with 1.07 (95% eCI: 1.00, 1.15) years from moderate cold. Average life losses per death were observed higher for males (1.71, 95% eCI: 1.43, 1.99), younger population (3.82, 95% eCI: 2.86, 4.75), central China (1.62; 95% eCI: 1.41, 1.83) and hemorrhagic stroke (2.86, 95% eCI: 2.63, 3.10) than their correspondents. CONCLUSIONS We found that non-optimal temperature significantly aggravated premature death of CVD, with CEDs being the most affected, and most of temperature-related life loss of CVD was attributed to moderate cold. Our findings imply that peoples with CEDs in moderate cold days are vulnerable populations, which may contribute to a better understanding the adverse effects and pathogenesis of temperature on CVDs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianxiong Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Zhulin Hou
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Yanjun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Chunliang Zhou
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
| | - Yize Xiao
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650034, China
| | - Min Yu
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, China
| | - Biao Huang
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Xiaojun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Lifeng Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Weiwei Gong
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, China
| | - Ruying Hu
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, China
| | - Junhua Li
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
| | - Donghui Jin
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
| | - Mingfang Qin
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650034, China
| | - Qinglong Zhao
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Peng Yin
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Yiqing Xu
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
| | - Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Siqi Chen
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Lingchuan Guo
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
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Yang J, Zhou M, Ren Z, Li M, Wang B, Liu DL, Ou CQ, Yin P, Sun J, Tong S, Wang H, Zhang C, Wang J, Guo Y, Liu Q. Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1039. [PMID: 33589602 PMCID: PMC7884743 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Yang
- grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China ,Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou, China ,grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- grid.508400.9National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zhoupeng Ren
- grid.9227.e0000000119573309State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Mengmeng Li
- grid.488530.20000 0004 1803 6191State Key Laboratory of Oncology in Southern China, Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Prevention Center, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China
| | - Boguang Wang
- grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China ,Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou, China ,grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - De Li Liu
- grid.1680.f0000 0004 0559 5189NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW Australia ,grid.1005.40000 0004 4902 0432Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW Australia
| | - Chun-Quan Ou
- grid.284723.80000 0000 8877 7471State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Peng Yin
- grid.508400.9National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jimin Sun
- grid.198530.60000 0000 8803 2373State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- grid.16821.3c0000 0004 0368 8293Shanghai Children’s Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China ,grid.186775.a0000 0000 9490 772XSchool of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China ,grid.1024.70000000089150953School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hao Wang
- grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China ,Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou, China ,grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Chunlin Zhang
- grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China ,Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou, China ,grid.258164.c0000 0004 1790 3548JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- grid.9227.e0000000119573309State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- grid.1002.30000 0004 1936 7857Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Qiyong Liu
- grid.198530.60000 0000 8803 2373State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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214
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Extreme Heat Related Mortality: Spatial Patterns and Determinants in the United States, 1979–2011. SPATIAL DEMOGRAPHY 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s40980-021-00079-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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215
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Temperature-Related Mortality in Helsinki Compared to Its Surrounding Region Over Two Decades, with Special Emphasis on Intensive Heatwaves. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12010046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Urbanization and ongoing climate change increase the exposure of the populations to heat stress, and the urban heat island (UHI) effect may magnify heat-related mortality, especially during heatwaves. We studied temperature-related mortality in the city of Helsinki—with urban and suburban land uses—and in the surrounding Helsinki-Uusimaa hospital district (HUS-H, excluding Helsinki)—with more rural types of land uses—in southern Finland for two decades, 2000–2018. Dependence of the risk of daily all-cause deaths (all-age and 75+ years) on daily mean temperature was modelled using the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). The modelled relationships were applied in assessing deaths attributable to four intensive heatwaves during the study period. The results showed that the heat-related mortality risk was substantially higher in Helsinki than in HUS-H, and the mortality rates attributable to four intensive heatwaves (2003, 2010, 2014 and 2018) were about 2.5 times higher in Helsinki than in HUS-H. Among the elderly, heat-related risks were also higher in Helsinki, while cold-related risks were higher in the surrounding region. The temperature ranges recorded in the fairly coarse resolution gridded datasets were not distinctly different in the two considered regions. It is therefore probable that the modelling underestimated the actual exposure to the heat stress in Helsinki. We also studied the modifying, short-term impact of air quality on the modelled temperature-mortality association in Helsinki; this effect was found to be small. We discuss a need for higher resolution data and modelling the UHI effect, and regional differences in vulnerability to thermal stress.
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216
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A spatial population downscaling model for integrated human-environment analysis in the United States. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH 2020. [DOI: 10.4054/demres.2020.43.54] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
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217
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Mokoena KK, Ethan CJ, Yu Y, Quachie AT. Interaction Effects of Air Pollution and Climatic Factors on Circulatory and Respiratory Mortality in Xi'an, China between 2014 and 2016. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17239027. [PMID: 33287400 PMCID: PMC7729743 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17239027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2020] [Revised: 11/20/2020] [Accepted: 11/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Several studies have reported that air pollution and climatic factors are major contributors to human morbidity and mortality globally. However, the combined interactive effects of air pollution and climatic factors on human health remain largely unexplored. This study aims to investigate the interactive effects of air pollution and climatic factors on circulatory and respiratory mortality in Xi’an, China. Time-series analysis and the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were employed as the study design and core statistical method. The interaction relative risk (IRR) and relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) for temperature and Air Quality Index (AQI) interaction on circulatory mortality were 0.973(0.969, 0.977) and −0.055(−0.059, −0.048), respectively; while for relative humidity and AQI interaction, 1.098(1.011, 1.072) and 0.088(0.081, 0.107) respectively, were estimated. Additionally, the IRR and RERI for temperature and AQI interaction on respiratory mortality were 0.805(0.722, 0.896) and −0.235(−0.269, −0.163) respectively, while 1.008(0.965, 1.051) and −0.031(−0.088, 0.025) respectively were estimated for relative humidity and AQI interaction. The interaction effects of climatic factors and AQI were synergistic and antagonistic in relation to circulatory and respiratory mortality, respectively. Interaction between climatic factors and air pollution contributes significantly to circulatory and respiratory mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kingsley Katleho Mokoena
- School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China;
- Correspondence: (K.K.M.); (Y.Y.); Tel.: +86-(13)-201561959 (K.K.M.); +86-(13)-087506658 (Y.Y.)
| | - Crystal Jane Ethan
- School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China;
| | - Yan Yu
- School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China;
- Correspondence: (K.K.M.); (Y.Y.); Tel.: +86-(13)-201561959 (K.K.M.); +86-(13)-087506658 (Y.Y.)
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218
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Scovronick N, Ferranna M, Dennig F, Budolfson M. Valuing Health Impacts In Climate Policy: Ethical Issues And Economic Challenges. Health Aff (Millwood) 2020; 39:2105-2112. [PMID: 33284691 PMCID: PMC7891186 DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
Deciding which climate policies to enact, and where and when to enact them, requires weighing their costs against the expected benefits. A key challenge in climate policy is how to value health impacts, which are likely to be large and varied, considering that they will accrue over long time horizons (centuries), will occur throughout the world, and will be distributed unevenly within countries depending in part on socioeconomic status. These features raise a number of important economic and ethical issues including how to value human life in different countries at different levels of development, how to value future people, and how much priority to give the poor and disadvantaged. In this article we review each of these issues, describe different approaches for addressing them in quantitative climate policy analysis, and show how their treatment can dramatically change what should be done about climate change. Finally, we use the social cost of carbon, which reflects the cost of adding carbon emissions to the atmosphere, as an example of how analysis of climate impacts is sensitive to ethical assumptions. We consider $20 a reasonable lower bound for the social cost of carbon, but we show that a much higher value is warranted given a strong concern for equity within and across generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noah Scovronick
- Noah Scovronick is an assistant professor in the Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health at the Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Maddalena Ferranna
- Maddalena Ferranna is a research associate in the Department of Global Health and Population at Harvard University, in Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Francis Dennig
- Francis Dennig is an assistant professor of social sciences at Yale-NUS College, in Singapore
| | - Mark Budolfson
- Mark Budolfson is an assistant professor in the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Justice, the Center for Population-Level Bioethics, and the Department of Philosophy at Rutgers University, in New Brunswick, New Jersey
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219
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Plavcová E, Urban A. Intensified impacts on mortality due to compound winter extremes in the Czech Republic. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 746:141033. [PMID: 32750577 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2020] [Revised: 07/01/2020] [Accepted: 07/15/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although impacts of extremely cold temperatures on human health have been widely studied, adverse effects of other extreme weather phenomena have so far received much less attention. We employed a high-quality long-term mortality time series (1982-2017) to evaluate impacts of extreme winter weather in the Czech Republic. We aimed to clarify whether compound events of extreme weather cause larger impacts on mortality than do each type of extreme if evaluated individually. Using daily data from the E-OBS and ERA5 datasets, we analyzed 9 types of extreme events: extreme wind gust, precipitation, snowfall, and sudden temperature and pressure changes. Relative mortality deviations from the adjusted baseline were used to estimate the immediate effect of the selected extreme events on excess mortality. The impact was adjusted for the effect of extreme cold. Extreme events associated with sudden rise of minimum temperature and pressure drops had generally significant impact on excess mortality (3.7% and 1.4% increase). The impacts were even more pronounced if these events occurred simultaneously or were compounded with other types of extremes, such as heavy precipitation, snowfall, maximum temperature rise, and their combinations (increase as great as 14.4%). Effects of some compound events were significant even for combinations of extremes having no significant impact on mortality when evaluated separately. On the other hand, a "protective" effect of pressure increases reduced the risk for its compound events. Meteorological patterns during extreme events linked to excess mortality indicate passage of a low-pressure system northerly from the study domain. We identified extreme winter weather events other than cold temperatures with significant impact on excess mortality. Our results suggest that occurrence of compound extreme events strengthen the impacts on mortality and therefore analysis of multiple meteorological parameters is a useful approach in defining adverse weather conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
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220
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Kim S, Kim SY, Oh J, Chae Y, Park J, Kim D, Kim YM. Effects of the 2018 heat wave on health in the elderly: implications for adaptation strategies to climate change. Environ Anal Health Toxicol 2020; 35:e2020024-0. [PMID: 33434424 PMCID: PMC7829408 DOI: 10.5620/eaht.2020024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2019] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
There has been growing concern over the effects of heat waves on health. However, the effects of heat waves on the health of individuals in vulnerable groups have rarely been examined. We aimed to investigate the acute health effects of heat waves in elderly individuals living in rural areas and to survey their adaptation capacity. Repeated measurements of body temperature (BT), blood pressure, sleep disturbance, and indoor temperature were conducted up to six times for each of 104 elderly individuals living in rural areas of South Korea during the 2018 heat wave. Changes in BT, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) according to variations in indoor and outdoor temperature were analyzed using linear mixed effect models controlling for age, sex, smoking, and drug use. We also surveyed heat wave adaptation capacity, heat wave shelters, and self-reported health problems. The average indoor temperature measured during the study period was 30.5°C (range: 22.9-38.3°C) and that of ambient temperature was 30.6°C (range: 24.6-36.3°C). BT significantly increased with indoor and outdoor temperatures. The effect on BT was greater in elderly women and the elderly with hypertension. DBP generally decreased with increasing indoor temperature, though the correlation was only statistically significant among the elderly with hypertension. Only 22 (21.2%) individuals used air conditioners during the heat wave. Most did not use an air conditioner mainly to avoid high electricity costs. Of the participants, 58.7% reported experiencing sleep disturbance, which was the most frequent self-reported health problem. Elderly individuals living in rural areas are directly exposed to high temperatures during heat waves, and their vital signs are sensitive to increases in indoor temperature due to poor adaptation capacity. Well-designed strategies for alleviating health-related stress during heat waves are necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Soyeon Kim
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Sang-Yub Kim
- Korea Climate & Environment Network, Gwacheon, Korea
| | - Jongmin Oh
- Korea Climate & Environment Network, Gwacheon, Korea
| | - Yeora Chae
- Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, Korea
| | | | - Daesoo Kim
- Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, Korea
| | - Young-Min Kim
- Environmental Health Center for Atopic Diseases, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul Korea; Department of Pediatrics, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
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Yan B, Chebana F, Masselot P, Campagna C, Gosselin P, Ouarda TBMJ, Lavigne É. A cold-health watch and warning system, applied to the province of Quebec (Canada). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 741:140188. [PMID: 32886981 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT A number of studies have shown that cold has an important impact on human health. However, almost no studies focused on cold warning systems to prevent those health effects. For Nordic regions, like the province of Quebec in Canada, winter is long and usually very cold with an observed increase in mortality and hospitalizations throughout the season. However, there is no existing system specifically designed to follow in real-time this mortality increase throughout the season and to alert public health authorities prior to cold waves. OBJECTIVE The aim is to establish a watch and warning system specifically for health impacts of cold, applied to different climatic regions of the province of Quebec. METHODOLOGY A methodology previously used to establish the health-heat warning system in Quebec is adapted to cold. The approach identifies cold weather indicators and establishes thresholds related to extreme over-mortality or over-hospitalization events in the province of Quebec, Canada. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION The final health-related thresholds proposed are between (-15 °C, -23 °C) and (-20 °C, -29 °C) according to the climatic region for excesses of mortality, and between (-13 °C, -23 °C) and (-17 °C, -30 °C) for excesses of hospitalization. These results suggest that the system model has a high sensitivity and an acceptable number of false alarms. This could lead to the establishment of a cold-health watch and warning system with valid indicators and thresholds for each climatic region of Quebec. It can be seen as a complementary system to the existing one for heat warnings, in order to help the public health authorities to be well prepared during an extreme cold event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bixun Yan
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement, 490 Couronne St, Québec G1K 9A9, Canada.
| | - Fateh Chebana
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement, 490 Couronne St, Québec G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement, 490 Couronne St, Québec G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Céline Campagna
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement, 490 Couronne St, Québec G1K 9A9, Canada; Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, 945 av Wolfe, Québec G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - Pierre Gosselin
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement, 490 Couronne St, Québec G1K 9A9, Canada; Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, 945 av Wolfe, Québec G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - Taha B M J Ouarda
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement, 490 Couronne St, Québec G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Éric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa K1G 5Z3, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, 269 Laurier Ave West, Ottawa K1A 0K9, Canada
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Rodrigues M, Santana P, Rocha A. Modelling climate change impacts on attributable-related deaths and demographic changes in the largest metropolitan area in Portugal: A time-series analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 190:109998. [PMID: 32771365 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2020] [Revised: 07/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have consistently analyzed the impact that extreme temperatures will have on human health. However, there are very few data on temperature-related mortality burden considering future demographic changes in a context of climate change in Portugal. This study aims to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and net change mortality burdens, taking into account the future demographic changes in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. We applied a time-series generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson model via a distributed lag nonlinear model to project temperature-related mortality burden for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that the total attributable fraction due to temperature, extreme and moderate cold, is statistically significant in the historical period and the future projected scenarios, while extreme and moderate heat were only significant in the projected future summer period. Net differences were attributed to moderate cold in the future winter months. Projections show a consistent and significant increase in future heat-related mortality burden. The attributable fraction due to heat in the future period, compared to the historical period, ranges from 0 to 1.5% for moderate heat and from 0 to 0.5% for extreme heat. Adaptation should be implemented at the local level, so as to prevent and diminish the effects on citizens and healthcare services, in a context of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mónica Rodrigues
- Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, Portugal.
| | - Paula Santana
- Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Alfredo Rocha
- Department of Physics, Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, Aveiro, Portugal
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Lee W, Kim Y, Sera F, Gasparrini A, Park R, Michelle Choi H, Prifti K, Bell ML, Abrutzky R, Guo Y, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Lavigne E, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Pascal M, Goodman P, Zeka A, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hurtado Diaz M, César Cruz J, Overcenco A, Nunes B, Madureira J, Scovronick N, Acquaotta F, Tobias A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Ragettli MS, Guo YLL, Chen BY, Li S, Armstrong B, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Kim H. Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2020; 4:e512-e521. [PMID: 33159878 PMCID: PMC7869581 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30222-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 08/27/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. METHODS DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. FINDINGS The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99. INTERPRETATION This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health. FUNDING Korea Ministry of Environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Whanhee Lee
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rokjin Park
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Kristi Prifti
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Faculty of Social Sciences, Research Institute Gino Germani, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aries, Argentina
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | | | | | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo R I Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Public Health France, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Julio César Cruz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal; EPIUnit, Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, IDAEA, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | | | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yue-Liang Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Bing-Yu Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
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Liu S, Chan EYY, Goggins WB, Huang Z. The Mortality Risk and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Associated with High and Low Temperature in Hong Kong. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17197326. [PMID: 33036459 PMCID: PMC7579344 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17197326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Revised: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 09/30/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: The adverse health effect associated with extreme temperature has been extensively reported in the current literature. Some also found that temperature effect may vary among the population with different socioeconomic status (SES), but found inconsistent results. Previous studies on the socioeconomic vulnerability of temperature effect were mainly achieved by multi-city or country analysis, but the large heterogeneity between cities may introduce additional bias to the estimation. The linkage between death registry and census in Hong Kong allows us to perform a city-wide analysis in which the study population shares virtually the same cultural, lifestyle and policy environment. This study aims to examine and compare the high and low temperature on morality in Hong Kong, a city with a subtropical climate and address a key research question of whether the extreme high and low temperature disproportionally affects population with lower SES. (2) Methods: Poisson-generalized additive models and distributed-lagged nonlinear models were used to examine the association between daily mortality and daily mean temperature between 2007–2015 with other meteorological and confounding factors controlled. Death registry was linked with small area census and area-level median household income was used as the proxy for socioeconomic status. (3) Results: 362,957 deaths during the study period were included in the analysis. The minimum mortality temperature was found to be 28.9 °C (82nd percentile). With a subtropical climate, the low temperature has a stronger effect than the high temperature on non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory and cancer deaths in Hong Kong. The hot effect was more pronounced in the first few days, while cold effect tended to last up to three weeks. Significant heat effect was only observed in the lower SES groups, whilst the extreme low temperature was associated with significantly higher mortality risk across all SES groups. The older population were susceptible to extreme temperature, especially for cold. (4) Conclusions: This study raised the concern of cold-related health impact in the subtropical region. Compared with high temperature, low temperature may be considered a universal hazard to the entire population in Hong Kong rather than only disproportionally affecting people with lower SES. Future public health policy should reconsider the strategy at both individual and community levels to reduce temperature-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sida Liu
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China; (S.L.); (Z.H.)
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China;
| | - Emily Yang Ying Chan
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China; (S.L.); (Z.H.)
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China;
- Correspondence:
| | - William Bernard Goggins
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China;
| | - Zhe Huang
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China; (S.L.); (Z.H.)
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China;
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225
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Gu S, Zhang L, Sun S, Wang X, Lu B, Han H, Yang J, Wang A. Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 143:105889. [PMID: 32619913 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2019] [Revised: 06/05/2020] [Accepted: 06/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease. OBJECTIVES We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China. METHODS We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization. RESULTS We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaohua Gu
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Liang Zhang
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Shiqiang Sun
- Ningbo Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315000, China.
| | - Xiaofeng Wang
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310000, China.
| | - Beibei Lu
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Hangtao Han
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510000, China; Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou 511443, China.
| | - Aihong Wang
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
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Mazidi M, Speakman JR. Predicted impact of increasing average ambient temperature over the coming century on mortality from cardiovascular disease and stroke in the USA. Atherosclerosis 2020; 313:1-7. [PMID: 32980563 DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2020.08.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2020] [Revised: 08/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Future climate change may adversely impact human health. The direct effects of extreme hot temperatures on mortality are well established, and their future impact well modelled. However, less extreme changes in ambient temperature (Ta) have been previously associated with increased mortality from circulatory and metabolic diseases, but their future impact is less clear. METHODS We evaluated the spatial association between cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and stroke mortality with average Ta across the US mainland, and then used this relationship to model future temporal trends in mortality from CVD and stroke until the end of the century (2099), using different warming scenarios for each US county. RESULTS Ta was significantly associated with crude levels of CVD mortality (R2 = 0.269) and stroke mortality (R2 = 0.264). Moreover, there was a strong positive link between Ta and physical inactivity (PIA) (R2 = 0.215). Once adjusted for PIA the associations between Ta and CVD and stroke mortality were much reduced (R2 = 0.054 and R2 = 0.091 respectively) but still highly significant. CONCLUSIONS By 2099 modelling suggests between 8844 and 25,486 extra deaths each year from CVD, and between 2,063 and 13,039 extra deaths for stroke, beyond the increases expected from population expansion. Mortality due to changes in the mean Ta may be as, or more, significant than the impacts of extreme hot weather events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohsen Mazidi
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, Kings College London, London, UK
| | - John R Speakman
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Developmental Biology, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing, China; School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK; CAS Center of Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
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227
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Zhan ZY, Tian Q, Chen TT, Ye Y, Lin Q, Han D, Ou CQ. Temperature Variability and Hospital Admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Analysis of Attributable Disease Burden and Vulnerable Subpopulation. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis 2020; 15:2225-2235. [PMID: 33061340 PMCID: PMC7519840 DOI: 10.2147/copd.s260988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2020] [Accepted: 08/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of chronic diseases causing considerable social and economic burden globally. Despite substantial evidence on temperature-COPD association, few studies have investigated the acute effect of temperature variability (TV), a potential trigger of exacerbation of COPD disease, and it remains unknown what fraction of the disease burden of COPD is attributable to TV. Patients and Methods Based on 71,070 COPD hospitalizations during 2013–2015 in Guangzhou, China, we conducted a time-series analysis using quasi-Poisson regression to assess the association between TV and hospital admission for COPD after adjusting for daily mean temperature. Short-term TV was captured by the standard deviation of hourly or daily temperatures across various exposure days. We also provided the fraction (total number) of COPD attributable to TV. Stratified analyses by admission route, sex, age, occupation, marital status and season were performed to identify vulnerable subpopulations. Results We found a linear relationship between TV and COPD hospitalization, with a 1°C increase in hourly TV and daily TV associated with 4.3% (95%CI: 2.2–6.4) and 4.0% (2.3–5.8) increases in COPD, respectively. The greater relative risks of TV identified males, people aged 0–64 years, blue collar, and divorced/widowed people as vulnerable population. There were 12.0% (8500 cases) of COPD hospitalization attributable to hourly TV during the study period. Daily TV produced similar estimates of relative effects (relative risk) but grater estimates of absolute effects (attributable fraction) than hourly TV. Conclusion We concluded that TV was an independent risk factor of COPD morbidity, especially among the susceptible subgroups. These findings would be helpful to guide the development of targeted public intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhi-Ying Zhan
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.,Department of Health Care Management and Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Qi Tian
- Department of Information Resources, Guangzhou Health Information Center, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Ting-Ting Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Yunshao Ye
- Department of Information Resources, Guangzhou Health Information Center, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiaoxuan Lin
- Department of Information Resources, Guangzhou Health Information Center, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Dong Han
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Chun-Quan Ou
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
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Cold-related symptoms and performance degradation among Thai poultry industry workers with reference to vulnerable groups: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:1357. [PMID: 32887559 PMCID: PMC7487455 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-09272-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2019] [Accepted: 07/19/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Few studies have examined cold-related symptoms among cold workplace workers in Thailand. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of cold-related cardiorespiratory, circulatory, and general symptoms and performance degradation among Thai chicken industry workers and identify vulnerable groups. Methods Overall, 422 workers aged from 18 to 57 years at four chicken meat factories in Thailand were interviewed for cold-related symptoms and complaints. The results were expressed in terms of model-based adjusted prevalence and prevalence differences (PDs) in percentage points (pp) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results In total, 76.1% of the respondents reported cold-related respiratory symptoms, 24.6% reported cardiac symptoms, 68.6% reported circulatory symptoms, and 72.1% reported general symptoms. In addition, 82.7% of the respondents reported performance degradation. Cold-related respiratory symptoms increased by PD 29.0 pp. (95% CI 23.4–34.6) from the lowest to the highest educational group, with a similar pattern observed in performance degradation. Forklift drivers and storage and manufacturing workers complained of cold-related respiratory symptoms more than office staff (PD 22.1 pp., 95% CI 12.8–31.3; 12.0 pp., 95% CI 2.4–21.6; and 17.5 pp., 95% CI 11.5–23.6, respectively); they also reported more performance degradation (PD 24.1 pp., 95% CI 17.0–31.2; 19.8 pp., 95% CI 14.1–25.6; and 14.8 pp., 95% CI 8.0–22.6, respectively). Weekly alcohol consumers reported more performance problems owing to cold (PD 18.2 pp., 95% CI 13.9–22.6) than non-consumers of alcohol. Cardiac and circulation symptoms were more common in women than men (PD 10.0 pp., 95% CI 1.1–18.9; and 8.4 pp., 95% CI 0.5–16.4, respectively). The age trend in performance issues was curved, with the highest prevalence among those aged 35–44 years, while the oldest workers (45–57 years) perceived less cold-related symptoms, particularly thirst. Conclusions Cold-related symptoms and performance degradation were found to be common in this industry, with vulnerable groups comprising of highly educated workers, forklift drivers, storage and manufacturing workers, weekly alcohol consumers, aging workers, and women. The results demonstrate a need for further research on the adequacy of protection provided against the cold, particularly given that global warming will increase the contrast between cold workplaces and outdoor heat.
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Heat Wave and Elderly Mortality: Historical Analysis and Future Projection for Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, Brazil. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11090933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) is one of the main regions of Brazil that in recent years has shown an increase in the number of days with heat waves, mainly affecting the health of the most sensitive populations, such as the elderly. In this study, we identified the heat waves in the MRSP using three different definitions regarding the maximum daily temperature threshold. To analyze the impact of heat waves on elderly mortality, we used distributed lag nonlinear models (dlnm) and we quantified the heat wave-related excess mortality of elderly people from 1985 to 2005 and made projections for the near future (2030 to 2050) and the distant future (2079–2099) under the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP: Representative Concentration Paths). An important aspect of this research is that for the projections we take into account two assumptions: non-adaptation and adaptation to the future climate. Our projections show that the heat wave-related excess of elderly mortality will increase in the future, being highest when we consider no adaptation, mainly from cardiovascular diseases in women (up to 587 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year). This study can be used for public policies to implement preventive and adaptive measures in the MRSP.
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Alahmad B, Shakarchi AF, Khraishah H, Alseaidan M, Gasana J, Al-Hemoud A, Koutrakis P, Fox MA. Extreme temperatures and mortality in Kuwait: Who is vulnerable? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 732:139289. [PMID: 32438154 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2020] [Accepted: 05/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous climate change temperature-related health studies have been performed mostly in western countries with relatively cooler temperatures than the Gulf region. Regions that are inherently hot, like Kuwait, are witnessing soaring temperatures unlike ever before. Meanwhile, Kuwait and other Gulf countries are unique in their demographic profiles due to the large number of non-national migrant workers. OBJECTIVE To examine the associations of hot and cold temperature extremes on the risk of mortality across gender, age groups and nationality in Kuwait. METHODS We investigated daily variations of all-cause non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality death counts and ambient temperatures from 2010 to 2016 in a time-series design using a negative binomial distribution. The temperature lag was modeled with distributed lag non-linear models. RESULTS A total of 33,472 all-cause non-accidental deaths happened during the study period. For the extreme hot temperatures and over the entire lag period, comparing the 99th percentile of temperature to the minimum mortality temperature, the risk of dying among males was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.23-3.52). Among non-Kuwaitis, males and working age group (15-64 year) had relative risks of death from extreme hot temperatures of 2.90 (1.42-5.93), and 2.59 (1.20-5.59), respectively. For extreme cold temperatures and over the entire lag period, comparing the 1st percentile of temperature to the minimum mortality temperature, the relative risk of death among Kuwaitis was 2.03 (1.05-3.93). Elderly Kuwaitis (65+ year) exposed to extreme cold temperatures had a relative risk of 2.75 (1.16-6.52). CONCLUSIONS Certain subpopulations in Kuwait are vulnerable to extreme temperatures with doubling to tripling risk of mortality. Nationality is an important effect modifier in temperature-related mortality studies in Kuwait and possibly the Gulf region. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first study to examine specific subpopulation vulnerabilities to temperature in this region. Our findings could carry a potential for broader insight into similar hyper-arid and hot regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barrak Alahmad
- Environmental Health Department, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Environmental and Occupational Health Department, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait.
| | - Ahmed F Shakarchi
- Wilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Haitham Khraishah
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Division of Cardiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Mohammad Alseaidan
- Environmental Health Department, Public Health Administration, Ministry of Health, Kuwait
| | - Janvier Gasana
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait
| | - Ali Al-Hemoud
- Environment and Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait
| | - Petros Koutrakis
- Environmental Health Department, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Mary A Fox
- Department of Health Policy and Management and Risk Sciences and Public Policy Institute, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Parrish R, Colbourn T, Lauriola P, Leonardi G, Hajat S, Zeka A. A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17176036. [PMID: 32825094 PMCID: PMC7504370 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17176036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2020] [Revised: 08/11/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A brief case study of Malawi is provided to demonstrate how this global conceptual model can be applied into local contextual scenarios. In doing so, we hope to provide insights that help in the more homogenous applications of conceptual frameworks for this area and more generally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Parrish
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, UK
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, 30 Guilford Street, London WC1N 1EH, UK;
- Correspondence: (R.P.); (A.Z.); Tel.: +44-(0)-7837-974-527 (R.P.); +44-(0)-1895-267359 (A.Z.)
| | - Tim Colbourn
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, 30 Guilford Street, London WC1N 1EH, UK;
| | - Paolo Lauriola
- Institute of Clinical Physiology, Italian National Research Council, 56124 Pisa, Italy;
| | - Giovanni Leonardi
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK;
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK;
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, UK
- Correspondence: (R.P.); (A.Z.); Tel.: +44-(0)-7837-974-527 (R.P.); +44-(0)-1895-267359 (A.Z.)
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The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:21108-21117. [PMID: 32817528 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2005492117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We use a suite of decadal-length regional climate simulations to quantify potential changes in population-weighted heat and cold exposure in 47 US metropolitan regions during the 21st century. Our results show that population-weighted exposure to locally defined extreme heat (i.e., "population heat exposure") would increase by a factor of 12.7-29.5 under a high-intensity greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urban development pathway. Additionally, end-of-century population cold exposure is projected to rise by a factor of 1.3-2.2, relative to start-of-century population cold exposure. We identify specific metropolitan regions in which population heat exposure would increase most markedly and characterize the relative significance of various drivers responsible for this increase. The largest absolute changes in population heat exposure during the 21st century are projected to occur in major US metropolitan regions like New York City (NY), Los Angeles (CA), Atlanta (GA), and Washington DC. The largest relative changes in population heat exposure (i.e., changes relative to start-of-century) are projected to occur in rapidly growing cities across the US Sunbelt, for example Orlando (FL), Austin (TX), Miami (FL), and Atlanta. The surge in population heat exposure across the Sunbelt is driven by concurrent GHG-induced warming and population growth which, in tandem, could strongly compound population heat exposure. Our simulations provide initial guidance to inform the prioritization of urban climate adaptation measures and policy.
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233
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Heatwave-Related Mortality Risk and the Risk-Based Definition of Heat Wave in South Korea: A Nationwide Time-Series Study for 2011-2017. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17165720. [PMID: 32784700 PMCID: PMC7460278 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Revised: 07/26/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Studies on the pattern of heatwave mortality using nationwide data that include rural areas are limited. This study aimed to assess the risk of heatwave-related mortality and evaluate the health risk-based definition of heatwave. We collected data on daily temperature and mortality from 229 districts in South Korea in 2011–2017. District-specific heatwave-related mortality risks were calculated using a distributed lag model. The estimates were pooled in the total areas and for each urban and rural area using meta-regression. In the total areas, the threshold point of heatwave mortality risk was estimated at the 93rd percentile of temperature, and it was lower in urban areas than in rural areas (92nd percentile vs. 95th percentile). The maximum risk of heatwave-related mortality in the total area was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01–1.22), and it was slightly greater in rural areas than in the urban areas (RR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.99–1.53 vs. RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.20). The results differ by age- and cause-specific deaths. In conclusion, the patterns of heatwave-related mortality risk vary by area and sub-population in Korea. Thus, more target-specific heatwave definitions and action plans should be established according to different areas and populations.
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234
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Daanen H, Bose-O'Reilly S, Brearley M, Flouris DA, Gerrett NM, Huynen M, Jones HM, Lee JKW, Morris N, Norton I, Nybo L, Oppermann E, Shumake-Guillemot J, Van den Hazel P. COVID-19 and thermoregulation-related problems: Practical recommendations. Temperature (Austin) 2020; 8:1-11. [PMID: 33553500 PMCID: PMC7849778 DOI: 10.1080/23328940.2020.1790971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic started in the cold months of the year 2020 in the Northern hemisphere. Concerns were raised that the hot season may lead to additional problems as some typical interventions to prevent heat-related illness could potentially conflict with precautions to reduce coronavirus transmission. Therefore, an international research team organized by the Global Health Heat Information Network generated an inventory of the specific concerns about this nexus and began to address the issues. Three key thermal and covid-19 related topics were highlighted: 1) For the general public, going to public cool areas in the hot season interferes with the recommendation to stay at home to reduce the spread of the virus. Conflicting advice makes it necessary to revise national heat plans and alert policymakers of this forecasted issue. 2) For medical personnel working in hot conditions, heat strain is exacerbated due to a reduction in heat loss from wearing personal protective equipment to prevent contamination. To avoid heat-related injuries, medical personnel are recommended to precool and to minimize the increase in body core temperature using adopted work/rest schedules, specific clothing systems, and by drinking cold fluids. 3) Fever, one of the main symptoms of COVID-19, may be difficult to distinguish from heat-induced hyperthermia and a resting period may be necessary prior to measurement to avoid misinterpretation. In summary, heat in combination with the COVID-19 pandemic leads to additional problems; the impact of which can be reduced by revising heat plans and implementing special measures attentive to these compound risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hein Daanen
- Department of Human Movement Sciences. Faculty of Behavioral and Movement Sciences. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Stephan Bose-O'Reilly
- Institute and Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University Hospital, LMU Munich, Germany.,Institute for Public Health, Medical Decision Making and HTA, UMIT - Private University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Hall i.T., Austria.,Hospital St. Hedwig of the Order of St. John, Institute and Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University Children's Hospital Regensburg (KUNO), University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Munich, Germany
| | - Matt Brearley
- National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre, Australia
| | - D Andreas Flouris
- FAME Laboratory, Department of Exercise Science, University of Thessaly, Greece
| | - Nicola M Gerrett
- Department of Human Movement Sciences. Faculty of Behavioral and Movement Sciences. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Maud Huynen
- Maastricht University Institute (MSI), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Hunter M Jones
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Service to the U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Jason Kai Wei Lee
- Department of Physiology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore.,Global Asia Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore.,N.1 Institute for Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Ian Norton
- Respond Global, Australia.,Previously World Health Organization, Switzerland
| | - Lars Nybo
- University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Elspeth Oppermann
- Department Für Geographie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany
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Geirinhas JL, Russo A, Libonati R, Trigo RM, Castro LCO, Peres LF, Magalhães MDAFM, Nunes B. Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:1319-1332. [PMID: 32314060 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-01908-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2019] [Revised: 03/16/2020] [Accepted: 03/26/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Temperature record-breaking events, such as the observed more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent heat waves, pose a new global challenge to health sectors worldwide. These threats are of particular interest in low-income regions with limited investments in public health and a growing urban population, such as Brazil. Here, we apply a comprehensive interdisciplinary climate-health approach, including meteorological data and a daily mortality record from the Brazilian Health System from 2000 to 2015, covering 21 cities over the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro. The percentage of absolute mortality increase due to summer extreme temperatures is estimated using a negative binomial regression modeling approach and maximum/minimum temperature-derived indexes as covariates. Moreover, this study assesses the vulnerability to thermal stress for different age groups and both genders and thoroughly analyzes four extremely intense heat waves during 2010 and 2012 regarding their impacts on the population. Results showed that the highest absolute mortality values during heat-related events were linked to circulatory illnesses. However, the highest excess of mortality was related to diabetes, particularly for women within the elderly age groups. Moreover, results indicate that accumulated heat stress conditions during consecutive days preferentially preceded by persistent periods of moderate-temperature, lead to higher excess mortality rather than sporadic single hot days. This work may provide directions in human health policies related to extreme climate events in large tropical metropolitan areas from developing countries, contributing to altering the historically based purely reactive response.
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Affiliation(s)
- João L Geirinhas
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal.
| | - Ana Russo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Renata Libonati
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
- Centro de Estudos Florestais, Universidade de Lisboa, 1349-017, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ricardo M Trigo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
| | - Lucas C O Castro
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
| | - Leonardo F Peres
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
- Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), 1749-077, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Mônica de Avelar F M Magalhães
- Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde (ICICT), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
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Abstract
Changing narratives surrounding the climate and environmental crisis have shaped the degree of ambition in the approach of EU policy-makers towards the sustainability transition and sustainable finance. This paper presents the evolution of EU sustainable finance policies between 2015 and 2019, focusing on the EU Taxonomy, arguing that as European narratives have shifted towards highlighting the severity of the climate and environmental crises, EU sustainable finance policies have also accelerated. The paper considers the IPCC SR1.5, published in October 2018, as one catalyst for this shift in narratives and the subsequently stronger policy responses, culminating in the European Green Deal.
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237
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Chen K, Breitner S, Wolf K, Rai M, Meisinger C, Heier M, Kuch B, Peters A, Schneider A. Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. DEUTSCHES ARZTEBLATT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 116:521-527. [PMID: 31554538 DOI: 10.3238/arztebl.2019.0521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2019] [Revised: 06/17/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2019] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. METHODS Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation. RESULTS In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. CONCLUSION The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Chen
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich; Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Chair of Epidemiology at UNIKA-T, University of Augsburg; Independent Research Group Clinical Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Munich; MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry, University Hospital of Augsburg; KORA Study Center, University Hospital of Augsburg; Department of Internal Medicine I - Cardiology, University Hospital of Augsburg; Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Nördlingen Hospital, Nördlingen; German Research Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner-Site Munich; The KORA-Study Group consists of A. Peters (spokesperson), H. Schulz, L. Schwettmann, R. Leidl, M. Heier, K. Strauch, and their co-workers, who are responsible for the design and conduct of the KORA studies
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Huber V, Krummenauer L, Peña-Ortiz C, Lange S, Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Garcia-Herrera R, Frieler K. Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 186:109447. [PMID: 32302868 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2019] [Revised: 03/13/2020] [Accepted: 03/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. METHODS We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. RESULTS In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 °C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 °C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 °C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 °C, compared to today's warming level of 1 °C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 °C versus 1 °C of GMT rise. CONCLUSIONS Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veronika Huber
- Department of Physical, Chemical, and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain.
| | - Linda Krummenauer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Germany
| | - Cristina Peña-Ortiz
- Department of Physical, Chemical, and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Stefan Lange
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ricardo Garcia-Herrera
- Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain; Instituto de Geociencias, IGEO (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
| | - Katja Frieler
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
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Chen K, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Dubrow R. Projections of Ambient Temperature- and Air Pollution-Related Mortality Burden Under Combined Climate Change and Population Aging Scenarios: a Review. Curr Environ Health Rep 2020; 7:243-255. [PMID: 32542573 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-020-00281-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Climate change will affect mortality associated with both ambient temperature and air pollution. Because older adults have elevated vulnerability to both non-optimal ambient temperature (heat and cold) and air pollution, population aging can amplify future population vulnerability to these stressors through increasing the number of vulnerable older adults. We aimed to review recent evidence on projections of temperature- or air pollution-related mortality burden (i.e., number of deaths) under combined climate change and population aging scenarios, with a focus on evaluating the role of population aging in assessing these health impacts of climate change. We included studies published between 2014 and 2019 with age-specific population projections. RECENT FINDINGS We reviewed 16 temperature projection studies and 15 air pollution projection studies. Nine of the temperature studies and four of the air pollution studies took population aging into account by performing age-stratified analyses that utilized age-specific relationships between temperature or air pollution exposures and mortality (i.e., age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs)). Population aging amplifies the projected mortality burden of temperature and air pollution under a warming climate. Compared with a constant population scenario, population aging scenarios lead to less reduction or even increases in cold-related mortality burden, resulting in substantial net increases in future overall (heat and cold) temperature-related mortality burden. There is strong evidence suggesting that to accurately assess the future temperature- and air pollution-related mortality burden of climate change, investigators need to account for the amplifying effect of population aging. Thus, all future studies should incorporate age-specific population size projections and age-specific ERFs into their analyses. These studies would benefit from refinement of age-specific ERF estimates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT, 06520-8034, USA. .,Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT, 06520-8034, USA.
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, 43 Mittelstrasse, 3012, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 4 Hochschulstrasse, 3012, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT, 06520-8034, USA.,Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT, 06520-8034, USA
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240
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Achebak H, Devolder D, Ingole V, Ballester J. Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2457. [PMID: 32433517 PMCID: PMC7239891 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16273-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2019] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable mortality remain unexplored. Here, we analyse countrywide daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts from respiratory diseases by sex, age group and province of residence during the period 1980–2016 in Spain. We show the complete reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality, with a significant shift of the maximum monthly incidence from winter to summer, and the minimum monthly incidence from early and late summer to winter. The reversal in the seasonal distribution of the attributable deaths is not driven by the observed warming in both winter and summer temperatures, but rather by the very large decrease in the risk of death due to cold temperatures and the relatively much smaller reduction due to hot temperatures. We conclude that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days due to climate warming will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable respiratory deaths. Potential changes in the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality due to climate warming have been poorly investigated. Here, the authors show that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hicham Achebak
- Centre for Demographic Studies (CED), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain.,Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Daniel Devolder
- Centre for Demographic Studies (CED), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Vijendra Ingole
- Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain.
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241
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Urban A, Kyselý J, Plavcová E, Hanzlíková H, Štěpánek P. Temporal changes in years of life lost associated with heat waves in the Czech Republic. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 716:137093. [PMID: 32044496 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Revised: 01/09/2020] [Accepted: 02/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Seniors constitute the population group generally most at risk of mortality due to heat stress. As life expectancy increases and health conditions of elderly people improve over time, vulnerability of the population to heat changes as well. We employed the years-of-life-lost (YLL) approach, considering life expectancy at the time of each death, to investigate how population ageing affects temporal changes in heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Using an updated gridded meteorological database, we identified heat waves during 1994-2017, and analysed temporal changes in their impacts on YLL and mortality. The mean impact of a heat-wave day on relative excess mortality and YLL had declined by approximately 2-3% per decade. That decline abated in the current decade, however, and the decreasing trend in mean excess mortality as well as YLL vanished when the short-term mortality displacement effect was considered. Moreover, the cumulative number of excess deaths and YLL during heat waves rose due to increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves during the examined period. The results show that in studies of temporal changes it is important to differentiate between mean effects of heat waves on mortality and the overall death burden associated with heat waves. Analysis of the average ratio of excess YLL/death per heat-wave day indicated that the major heat-vulnerable population group shifted towards older age (70+ years among males and 75+ years among females). Our findings highlight the importance of focusing heat-protection measures especially upon the elderly population, which is most heat-vulnerable and whose numbers are rising.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Geophysics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic; Institute of Geophysics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Regional Office Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
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242
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Karnauskas KB, Miller SL, Schapiro AC. Fossil Fuel Combustion Is Driving Indoor CO 2 Toward Levels Harmful to Human Cognition. GEOHEALTH 2020; 4:e2019GH000237. [PMID: 32426622 PMCID: PMC7229519 DOI: 10.1029/2019gh000237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2019] [Revised: 04/05/2020] [Accepted: 04/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Human activities are elevating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to levels unprecedented in human history. The majority of anticipated impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are mediated by climate warming. Recent experimental studies in the fields of indoor air quality and cognitive psychology and neuroscience, however, have revealed significant direct effects of indoor CO2 levels on cognitive function. Here, we shed light on this connection and estimate the impact of continued fossil fuel emissions on human cognition. We conclude that indoor CO2 levels may indeed reach levels harmful to cognition by the end of this century, and the best way to prevent this hidden consequence of climate change is to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Finally, we offer recommendations for a broad, interdisciplinary approach to improving such understanding and prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristopher B. Karnauskas
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
- Department of Environmental & Occupational HealthColorado School of Public HealthAuroraCOUSA
| | - Shelly L. Miller
- Department of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - Anna C. Schapiro
- Department of PsychologyUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPAUSA
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243
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Liu Z, Tong MX, Xiang J, Dear K, Wang C, Ma W, Lu L, Liu Q, Jiang B, Bi P. Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2020; 128:57008. [PMID: 32452706 PMCID: PMC7266621 DOI: 10.1289/ehp5779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2019] [Revised: 04/29/2020] [Accepted: 05/01/2020] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Evidence assessing the risk of BD from temperature is limited, particularly from national studies including multiple locations with different climatic characteristics. OBJECTIVES We estimated the effect of temperature on BD across China, assessed heterogeneity and attributable risks across cities and regions, and projected the future risk of BD under climate change. METHODS Daily BD surveillance and meteorological data over 2014-2016 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorology Administration, respectively. A two-stage statistical model was used to estimate city-specific temperature-BD relationships that were pooled to derive regional and national estimates. The risk of BD attributable to temperature was estimated, and the future burden of BD attributable to temperature was projected under different climate change scenarios. RESULTS A positive linear relationship for the pooled effect was estimated at the national level. Subgroup analyses indicate that the estimated effect of temperature on BD was similar by age (≤5y or >5y) and gender. At baseline, estimated attributable risks for BD due to average daily mean temperatures above the 50th percentile were highest for the Inner Mongolia (16%), Northeast China (14%), and Northern China (13%). Most of the individual cities in the same regions and most of the cities in the Northwest, Southern, and Southwest regions, had high attributable risks (≥5%). The Northern, Northeast, Inner Mongolia, Northwest, and Southern China regions were identified as high risk for future BD, with estimated increases by the 2090s compared with baseline of 20% (95% confidence interval: 11%, 27%), 15% (6%, 20%), 15% (-1%, 22%), 12% (1%, 19%), and 11% (5%, 15%), respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. CONCLUSIONS The positive association between temperature and BD in different climatic regions of China, and the projection for increased risk due to climate change, support efforts to mitigate future risks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5779.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhidong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Michael Xiaoliang Tong
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Jianjun Xiang
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Changke Wang
- National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
- Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Liang Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Baofa Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
- Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
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244
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Sera F, Armstrong B, Tobias A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Åström C, Bell ML, Chen BY, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Matus Correa P, Cruz JC, Dang TN, Hurtado-Diaz M, Do Van D, Forsberg B, Guo YL, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Iñiguez C, Jaakkola JJK, Kan H, Kim H, Lavigne E, Michelozzi P, Ortega NV, Osorio S, Pascal M, Ragettli MS, Ryti NRI, Saldiva PHN, Schwartz J, Scortichini M, Seposo X, Tong S, Zanobetti A, Gasparrini A. How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis. Int J Epidemiol 2020; 48:1101-1112. [PMID: 30815699 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyz008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators. METHODS We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities. RESULTS Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality impact associated with increases in population density, fine particles (PM2.5), gross domestic product (GDP) and Gini index (a measure of income inequality), whereas higher levels of green spaces were linked with a decreased effect of heat. CONCLUSIONS This represents the largest study to date assessing the effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships. Evidence from this study can inform public-health interventions and urban planning under various climate-change and urban-development scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Bing-Yu Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | | | | | - Julio Cesar Cruz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Magali Hurtado-Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Dung Do Van
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan.,Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.,Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Carmen Iñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Environmental Health Research Joint Reseaech Unit FISABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, University of València, València, Spain
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.,Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.,Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.,University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Niilo R I Ryti
- Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.,Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | | | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China.,School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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245
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Royé D, Íñiguez C, Tobías A. Comparison of temperature-mortality associations using observed weather station and reanalysis data in 52 Spanish cities. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 183:109237. [PMID: 32058146 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2019] [Revised: 01/16/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most studies use temperature observation data from weather stations near the analyzed region or city as the reference point for the exposure-response association. Climatic reanalysis data sets have already been used for climate studies, but are not yet used routinely in environmental epidemiology. METHODS We compared the mortality-temperature association using weather station temperature and ERA-5 reanalysis data for the 52 provincial capital cities in Spain, using time-series regression with distributed lag non-linear models. RESULTS The shape of temperature distribution is very close between the weather station and ERA-5 reanalysis data (correlation from 0.90 to 0.99). The overall cumulative exposure-response curves are very similar in their shape and risks estimates for cold and heat effects, although risk estimates for ERA-5 were slightly lower than for weather station temperature. CONCLUSIONS Reanalysis data allow the estimation of the health effects of temperature, even in areas located far from weather stations or without any available.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain; Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain.
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain; Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - Aurelio Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
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Kypridemos C, Puzzolo E, Aamaas B, Hyseni L, Shupler M, Aunan K, Pope D. Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2020; 128:47001. [PMID: 32233878 PMCID: PMC7228103 DOI: 10.1289/ehp4899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2018] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/04/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. METHODS We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017-2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031-2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. RESULTS By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (minimum = 22,000 , maximum = 35,000 ) deaths and 770,000 (minimum = 580,000 maximum = 1 million ) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of - 0.1 milli ° C in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be - 0.70 milli ° C in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of - 0.64 to - 0.93 milli ° C based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. DISCUSSION Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris Kypridemos
- Department of Public Health & Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Elisa Puzzolo
- Department of Public Health & Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- Global LPG Partnership (GLPGP), New York, USA
| | - Borgar Aamaas
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Lirije Hyseni
- Department of Public Health & Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Matthew Shupler
- Department of Public Health & Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Kristin Aunan
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Daniel Pope
- Department of Public Health & Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
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247
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Hough I, Just AC, Zhou B, Dorman M, Lepeule J, Kloog I. A multi-resolution air temperature model for France from MODIS and Landsat thermal data. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 183:109244. [PMID: 32097815 PMCID: PMC7167357 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2019] [Revised: 01/17/2020] [Accepted: 02/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding and managing the health effects of ambient temperature (Ta) in a warming, urbanizing world requires spatially- and temporally-resolved Ta at high resolutions. This is challenging in a large area like France which includes highly variable topography, rural areas with few weather stations, and heterogeneous urban areas where Ta can vary at fine spatial scales. We have modeled daily Ta from 2000 to 2016 at a base resolution of 1 km2 across continental France and at a 200 × 200 m2 resolution over large urban areas. For each day we predict three Ta measures: minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean), and maximum (Tmax). We start by using linear mixed models to calibrate daily Ta observations from weather stations with remotely sensed MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and other spatial predictors (e.g. NDVI, elevation) on a 1 km2 grid. We fill gaps where LST is missing (e.g. due to cloud cover) with additional mixed models that capture the relationship between predicted Ta at each location and observed Ta at nearby weather stations. The resulting 1 km Ta models perform very well, with ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.92, 0.97, and 0.95, mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.4 °C, 0.9 °C, and 1.4 °C, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.9 °C, 1.3 °C, and 1.8 °C (Tmin, Tmean, and Tmax, respectively) for the initial calibration stage. To increase the spatial resolution over large urban areas, we train random forest and extreme gradient boosting models to predict the residuals (R) of the 1 km Ta predictions on a 200 × 200 m2 grid. In this stage we replace MODIS LST and NDVI with composited top-of-atmosphere brightness temperature and NDVI from the Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellites. We use a generalized additive model to ensemble the random forest and extreme gradient boosting predictions with weights that vary spatially and by the magnitude of the predicted residual. The 200 m models also perform well, with ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.79, 0.79, and 0.85, MAE of 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3, and RMSE of 0.6, 0.4, and 0.5 (Rmin, Rmean, and Rmax, respectively). Our model will reduce bias in epidemiological studies in France by improving Ta exposure assessment in both urban and rural areas, and our methodology demonstrates that MODIS and Landsat thermal data can be used to generate gap-free timeseries of daily minimum, maximum, and mean Ta at a 200 × 200 m2 spatial resolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian Hough
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, IAB, Site Sante, Allée des Alpes, 38700, La Tronche, France; Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O.B. 653, Be'er Sheva, Israel.
| | - Allan C Just
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, 1 Gustave L. Levy Place, New York, NY 10029-5674, USA
| | - Bin Zhou
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O.B. 653, Be'er Sheva, Israel
| | - Michael Dorman
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O.B. 653, Be'er Sheva, Israel
| | - Johanna Lepeule
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Inserm, CNRS, IAB, Site Sante, Allée des Alpes, 38700, La Tronche, France
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O.B. 653, Be'er Sheva, Israel
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248
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Paterson SK, Godsmark CN. Heat-health vulnerability in temperate climates: lessons and response options from Ireland. Global Health 2020; 16:29. [PMID: 32228631 PMCID: PMC7106697 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-020-00554-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In Ireland, rising temperatures remains the climate projection that national climate scientists associate with the highest degree of confidence. However, the health challenge of heat has been largely absent from Ireland’s public health sector. This is epitomised by the lack of a comprehensive public health-focused heat-health action plan or country-specific codes of practice for heat-health when working outdoors. Our objective is to highlight the anticipated heat-health challenges in Ireland, and other temperate regions, through analysing vulnerable groups and systems, reinforcing the need to respond. Methods A scoping literature review was conducted to determine how heat affects health of the vulnerable in temperate climatic regions, with a focus on Ireland. Additionally, national Google Trends data was coarsely analysed to determine whether heat is a growing societal concern. Results and discussion The heat-vulnerable include: older people; chronically ill; infants, pregnant women, children; outdoor workers; socio-economically disadvantaged; urban dwellers; food systems and the health sector. Google Trends data suggest an increase in heat-related health searches over time, demonstrating rising levels of concern to temperature increases, reinforcing a gap in national policy associated with communication of, and response to, the heat-health challenge. Specific, actionable recommendations for adaptation and mitigation strategies are proposed. Conclusion Heat poses a public and occupational health challenge, receiving limited attention in Ireland. Lack of a co-ordinated effort, places vulnerable populations at risk. Our recommendations, with reference to vulnerable groups and acknowledging the multi-sectoral nature of heat-health and climate change, advocate for the adoption of a “health and climate change in all policies” approach and the development of a public health-focused heat-health action plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shona K Paterson
- College of Business, Arts and Social Sciences, Brunel University London, Uxbridge, UB8 3PH, UK
| | - Christie Nicole Godsmark
- School of Public Health, University College Cork, Western Gateway Building, Western Road, Cork, T12 XF62, Ireland. .,Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
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249
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Corcuera Hotz I, Hajat S. The Effects of Temperature on Accident and Emergency Department Attendances in London: A Time-Series Regression Analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E1957. [PMID: 32192045 PMCID: PMC7142952 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17061957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2020] [Revised: 03/10/2020] [Accepted: 03/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The epidemiological research relating mortality and hospital admissions to ambient temperature is well established. However, less is known about the effect temperature has on Accident and Emergency (A&E) department attendances. Time-series regression analyses were conducted to investigate the effect of temperature for a range of cause- and age-specific attendances in Greater London (LD) between 2007 to 2012. A seasonally adjusted Poisson regression model was used to estimate the percent change in daily attendances per 1 °C increase in temperature. The risk of overall attendance increased by 1.0% (95% CI 0.8, 1.4) for all ages and 1.4% (1.2, 1.5) among 0- to 15-year-olds. A smaller but significant increase in risk was found for cardiac, respiratory, cerebrovascular and psychiatric presentations. Importantly, for fracture-related attendances, the risk rose by 1.1% (0.7, 1.5) per 1 °C increase in temperature above the identified temperature threshold of 16 °C, with the highest increase of 2.1% (1.5, 3.0) seen among 0- to 15-year-olds. There is a positive association between increasing temperatures and A&E department attendance, with the risk appearing highest in children and the most deprived areas. A&E departments are vulnerable to increased demand during hot weather and therefore need to be adequately prepared to address associated health risks posed by climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ines Corcuera Hotz
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK;
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250
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Royé D, Codesido R, Tobías A, Taracido M. Heat wave intensity and daily mortality in four of the largest cities of Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 182:109027. [PMID: 31884190 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.109027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2019] [Revised: 12/09/2019] [Accepted: 12/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
In the current context of climate change, heat waves have become a significant problem for human health. This study assesses the effects of heat wave intensity on mortality (natural, respiratory and cardiovascular causes) in four of the largest cities of Spain (Barcelona, Bilbao, Madrid and Seville) during the period between 1990 and 2014. To model the heat wave severity the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) was used. The EHF is a two-component index. The first is the comparison of the three-day average daily mean temperature with the 95th percentile. The second component is a measure of the temperatures reached during the three-day period compared with the recent past (the previous 30 days). The city-specific exposure-response curves showed a non-linear J-shaped relationship between mortality and the EHF. Overall city-specific mortality risk estimates in natural causes for 1st vs. 99th percentile increases range from the highest mortality risk with 2.73 (95% CI: 2.34-3.18) in Seville to a risk of 1.78 (95% CI: 1.62-1.97) and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.45-2.19) in Barcelona and Bilbao, respectively. When we compare our results with risk estimates for the analyzed Spanish cities in other studies, the heat wave related mortality risks seem to be clearly higher. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that different heat wave days of the same event do not present the same degree of severity/intensity. Thus, the intensity of a heat wave is an important mortality risk indicator during heat wave days. Due to the low number of studies on the EHF as a heat wave intensity indicator and heat-related mortality and morbidity, further research is required to validate its application in other geographic areas and focus populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominic Royé
- Departamento de Saúde Pública, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Spain; Departamento de Xeografía, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela., Spain; Departamento de Geografía, Universidade de Porto, Spain.
| | - Raquel Codesido
- Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Aurelio Tobías
- Instituto de Diagnóstico Ambiental y Estudios Del Agua, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Margarita Taracido
- Departamento de Xeografía, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela., Spain; Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Santiago de Compostela, Spain
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