Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 among patients in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care network: a cross-sectional study

Dynamics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies post-COVID-19 in a Brazilian Amazon population

BACKGROUND

In this study, the prevalence and persistence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus) IgG was evaluated in volunteers 90 days after COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) diagnosis by correlating response dynamics with clinical conditions, epidemiological characteristics, and disease severity.

METHODS

The study recruited 200 volunteers aged 18 years or older of both sexes diagnosed with COVID-19. Of the 200 volunteers initially selected, the 135 individuals who underwent serological testing for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies on the first visit to the laboratory, were invited to return, after 90 days, and provide a new blood sample for a second assessment of the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody. Disease severity and longevity of symptoms were evaluated for each individual and associated with the serological profile.

RESULTS

Among the 135 individuals who underwent a previous serological test for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody, 125 showed reactivity to IgG (92.6%). Of the 125 individuals with detectable IgG in the first test, 87 (69.6%) showed persistence of this antibody after 90 days and 38 (30.4%) lost IgG reactivity in the second evaluation. The frequency of all reported symptoms was higher in individuals who maintained IgG persistence after 90 days of symptoms. Symptom manifestations lasted ≥21 days in the group with a persistent IgG response (39.6%) and ≤ 7 days in the group with a nonpersistent IgG response (50.0%). The length of hospital stay and supplemental oxygen use were higher in individuals with a persistent IgG response.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the present study show a high frequency of loss of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies within 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis in the Brazilian Amazon.

Susceptibility and risk of SARS-COV-2 infection among middle-aged and older adults in Tarragona area, Spain

Objective

To analyse susceptibility/risk of suffering COVID-19 among adults with distinct underlying medical conditions.

Methods

Population-based cohort study involving 79,083 individuals ≥50 years old in Tarragona (Southern Catalonia, Spain). Baseline cohort characteristics (demographic, pre-existing comorbidities, chronic medications and vaccinations history) were established at study start (01/03/2020) and primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 occurred among cohort members throughout 01/03/2020–30/06/2020. Risk of suffering COVID-19 was evaluated by Cox regression, estimating multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age/sex and pre-existing comorbidities.

Results

Across study period, 536 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were observed (mean incidence: 39.5 cases per 100,000 persons-week). In multivariable-analysis, increasing age/years (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02), nursing-home (HR: 20.19; 95% CI: 15.98–25.51), neurological disease (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.03–1.77), taking diuretics (HR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.10–1.75), antiplatelet (HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.05–1.76) and benzodiazepines (HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.00–1.53) increased risk; conversely, taking angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.61–1.00), angiotensin-receptor-blockers (HR: 0.70; 95%CI: 0.51–0.96) and statins (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58–0.96) were associated with reduced risk. Among community-dwelling individuals, pre-existing cancer, renal and cardiac disease appeared also related with an increased risk, whereas influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk.

Conclusion

In a setting with relatively low incidence of COVID-19 across the first wave of pandemic period, increasing age, nursing-home residence and multiple comorbidities appear predisposing for COVID-19 among middle-aged/older adults. Conversely, statins, angiotensin-receptor blockers/inhibitors and influenza vaccination were related with decreased risk.

Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 50 million people and killed more than one million, worldwide, during less than a year course. COVID-19, which has already become the worst pandemic in the last 100 years, is still spreading worldwide. Since the beginning of the outbreak, it has been of particular interest to understand whether COVID-19 is seasonal; the finding might help for better planning and preparation for the fight against the disease. Over the past 12 months, numerous empirical and epidemiological studies have been performed to define the distinct diffusion patterns of COVID-19. Thereby, a wealth of data has accumulated on the relationship between various seasonal meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmissibility at global and local scales. In this review, we aimed to discuss whether COVID-19 exhibits any seasonal features in a global and local perspective by collecting and providing summaries of the findings from empirical and epidemiological studies on the COVID-19 pandemic during its first seasonal cycle.

6-month neurological and psychiatric outcomes in 236 379 survivors of COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Neurological and psychiatric sequelae of COVID-19 have been reported, but more data are needed to adequately assess the effects of COVID-19 on brain health. We aimed to provide robust estimates of incidence rates and relative risks of neurological and psychiatric diagnoses in patients in the 6 months following a COVID-19 diagnosis.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study and time-to-event analysis, we used data obtained from the TriNetX electronic health records network (with over 81 million patients). Our primary cohort comprised patients who had a COVID-19 diagnosis; one matched control cohort included patients diagnosed with influenza, and the other matched control cohort included patients diagnosed with any respiratory tract infection including influenza in the same period. Patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 or a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from the control cohorts. All cohorts included patients older than 10 years who had an index event on or after Jan 20, 2020, and who were still alive on Dec 13, 2020. We estimated the incidence of 14 neurological and psychiatric outcomes in the 6 months after a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19: intracranial haemorrhage; ischaemic stroke; parkinsonism; Guillain-Barré syndrome; nerve, nerve root, and plexus disorders; myoneural junction and muscle disease; encephalitis; dementia; psychotic, mood, and anxiety disorders (grouped and separately); substance use disorder; and insomnia. Using a Cox model, we compared incidences with those in propensity score-matched cohorts of patients with influenza or other respiratory tract infections. We investigated how these estimates were affected by COVID-19 severity, as proxied by hospitalisation, intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission, and encephalopathy (delirium and related disorders). We assessed the robustness of the differences in outcomes between cohorts by repeating the analysis in different scenarios. To provide benchmarking for the incidence and risk of neurological and psychiatric sequelae, we compared our primary cohort with four cohorts of patients diagnosed in the same period with additional index events: skin infection, urolithiasis, fracture of a large bone, and pulmonary embolism.

FINDINGS

Among 236 379 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, the estimated incidence of a neurological or psychiatric diagnosis in the following 6 months was 33·62% (95% CI 33·17-34·07), with 12·84% (12·36-13·33) receiving their first such diagnosis. For patients who had been admitted to an ITU, the estimated incidence of a diagnosis was 46·42% (44·78-48·09) and for a first diagnosis was 25·79% (23·50-28·25). Regarding individual diagnoses of the study outcomes, the whole COVID-19 cohort had estimated incidences of 0·56% (0·50-0·63) for intracranial haemorrhage, 2·10% (1·97-2·23) for ischaemic stroke, 0·11% (0·08-0·14) for parkinsonism, 0·67% (0·59-0·75) for dementia, 17·39% (17·04-17·74) for anxiety disorder, and 1·40% (1·30-1·51) for psychotic disorder, among others. In the group with ITU admission, estimated incidences were 2·66% (2·24-3·16) for intracranial haemorrhage, 6·92% (6·17-7·76) for ischaemic stroke, 0·26% (0·15-0·45) for parkinsonism, 1·74% (1·31-2·30) for dementia, 19·15% (17·90-20·48) for anxiety disorder, and 2·77% (2·31-3·33) for psychotic disorder. Most diagnostic categories were more common in patients who had COVID-19 than in those who had influenza (hazard ratio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·40-1·47, for any diagnosis; 1·78, 1·68-1·89, for any first diagnosis) and those who had other respiratory tract infections (1·16, 1·14-1·17, for any diagnosis; 1·32, 1·27-1·36, for any first diagnosis). As with incidences, HRs were higher in patients who had more severe COVID-19 (eg, those admitted to ITU compared with those who were not: 1·58, 1·50-1·67, for any diagnosis; 2·87, 2·45-3·35, for any first diagnosis). Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses and benchmarking against the four additional index health events.

INTERPRETATION

Our study provides evidence for substantial neurological and psychiatric morbidity in the 6 months after COVID-19 infection. Risks were greatest in, but not limited to, patients who had severe COVID-19. This information could help in service planning and identification of research priorities. Complementary study designs, including prospective cohorts, are needed to corroborate and explain these findings.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre.

Impact of Smoking on Women During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) brought in 2020 an important challenge for health-care systems and authorities. Smoking and its influence on this disease remain, after months of the pandemic, one of the debatable risk factors. From the literature point of view, the focus of most articles is on smoking as a possible general risk factor for all analyzed populations. Women tend to represent a more significant population in exposed occupations. In our mini-review, we try to dig deeper, looking for gender-related health effects of smoking in this pandemic context, its effects on the infection with this novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on illness severity, and on the rate of hospitalization and mortality. Despite the fact that the male gender is reported in many articles as a predictor of a poor outcome, we suggest that further research is needed to confirm or deny these relationships. Moreover, studies focusing specifically on women in these study populations are required.

Smoking and the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection

Introduction

It is unclear whether smokers are more vulnerable to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. This study aimed to evaluate the association between smoking and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

A matched case-control study was conducted using a large nationwide database. The case group included patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the control group was randomly sampled from the general Korean population in the National Health Insurance Service database by matching sex, age, and region of residence. Conditional logistic regression models were used to investigate whether the risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 was affected by smoking status.

Results

A total of 4,167 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 20,937 matched controls were enrolled. The proportion of ex-smokers and current smokers was 26.6% of the total participants. In multivariate analysis, smoking was not associated with an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (odds ratio [OR] = 0.56, confidence interval [CI] = 0.50–0.62). When ex-smokers and current smokers were analysed separately, similar results were obtained (current smoker OR = 0.33, CI = 0.28–0.38; ex-smoker OR = 0.81, CI = 0.72–0.91).

Conclusions

This study showed that smoking may not be associated with an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Smoking tends to lower the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, these findings should be interpreted with caution.

Implications

It is unclear whether smokers are more vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019. In this large nationwide study in South Korea, smoking tended to lower the risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. However, these findings should be interpreted with caution, and further confirmatory studies are required.

Resilience to COVID-19: Socioeconomic Disadvantage Associated With Higher Positive Parent-youth Communication and Youth Disease-prevention Behavior

Socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with larger COVID-19 disease burdens and pandemic-related economic impacts. We utilized the longitudinal Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study to understand how family- and neighborhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage relate to disease burden, family communication, and preventative responses to the pandemic in over 6,000 youth-parent/caregiver dyads. Data were collected at three timepoints (May to August 2020). Here, we show that both family- and neighborhood-level disadvantage were associated with parents’ reports of greater family COVID-19 exposure risk and diagnoses, less perceived exposure risk, more frequent parent-youth conversations about COVID-19 risk/prevention and reassurance, and greater youth preventative behaviors. More disadvantaged families may be adaptively incorporating more protective strategies to reduce emotional distress and likelihood of COVID-19 infection. The results highlight the importance of parent-youth communication and disease-preventative practices for buffering the economic and disease burdens of COVID-19, along with policies and programs that reduce these burdens for families with socioeconomic disadvantage.

Does taking an angiotensin inhibitor increase the risk for COVID-19? - a systematic review and meta-analysis

Because SARS-COV2 entry into cells is dependent on angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) increase ACE2 activity, the safety of ACEI/ARB usage during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a controversial topic. To address that issue, we performed a meta-analysis following The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Searches of the Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, and Cochrane Library databases identified 16 case-control studies examining the effect of ACEI/ARB on the incidence of COVID-19 and its severity. ACEI/ARB usage was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 morbidity (odds ratio (OR) 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.33, P=0.001) among the general population but not in a hypertensive population (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.90-1.21, P=0.553). ACEI/ARB usage was not associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 morbidity (coefficient 1.00, 95% CI 1.00-1.00, P=0.660) when we adjusted for hypertension in the general population. ACEI/ARB usage was also not associated with an increased risk of severe illness (OR 0.90, 95%CI 0.55-1.47, P=0.664) or mortality (OR 1.43, 95%CI 0.97-2.10, P=0.070) in COVID-19 patients. Our meta-analysis revealed that ACEI/ARB usage was not associated with either the increased risk of SARS-COV2 infection or the adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

Sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RNA polymerase chain reaction using a clinical and radiological reference standard

OBJECTIVES

Diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 are important for epidemiology, clinical management, and infection control. Limitations of oro-nasopharyngeal real-time PCR sensitivity have been described based on comparisons of single tests with repeated sampling. We assessed SARS-CoV-2 PCR clinical sensitivity using a clinical and radiological reference standard.

METHODS

Between March-May 2020, 2060 patients underwent thoracic imaging and SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing. Imaging was independently double- or triple-reported (if discordance) by blinded radiologists according to radiological criteria for COVID-19. We excluded asymptomatic patients and those with alternative diagnoses that could explain imaging findings. Associations with PCR-positivity were assessed with binomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

901 patients had possible/probable imaging features and clinical symptoms of COVID-19 and 429 patients met the clinical and radiological reference case definition. SARS-CoV-2 PCR sensitivity was 68% (95% confidence interval 64-73), was highest 7-8 days after symptom onset (78% (68-88)) and was lower among current smokers (adjusted odds ratio 0.23 (0.12-0.42) p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with clinical and imaging features of COVID-19, PCR test sensitivity was 68%, and was lower among smokers; a finding that could explain observations of lower disease incidence and that warrants further validation. PCR tests should be interpreted considering imaging, symptom duration and smoking status.

Underlying conditions and risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality among those with COVID-19 in Ireland: A national surveillance study

Background

To date, over 2 million people worldwide have died with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To describe the experience in Ireland, this study examined associations between underlying conditions and the following outcomes: mortality, admission to hospital or admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) among those infected with COVID-19.

Methods

This study used data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland and included confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the first wave of the pandemic between March and July 2020. Two cohorts were included: all cases (community and hospital) and hospital admissions only. For all cases, health outcome data included mortality and hospitalisation. For hospitalised cases, outcome data included mortality and ICU admission. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between underlying conditions and outcomes across both cohorts. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Findings

There were 19,789 cases included in analysis, which encompassed 1,476 (7.5%) deaths, 2,811 (14.2%) hospitalisations, and 438 (2.2%) ICU admissions of whom 90 (20.5%) died. Significantly higher risk of mortality, hospitalisation and ICU admission was associated with having chronic heart disease, a BMI ≥40kg/m² and male sex. Additionally, diagnosis of a chronic neurological condition (OR 1.41; 95%CI:1.17, 1.69), chronic kidney disease (OR 1.74; 95%CI:1.35, 2.24) and cancer (OR 2.77; 95%CI:2.21, 3.47) were significantly associated with higher risk of mortality among all cases, with similar patterns of association observed for mortality among hospitalised cases.

Interpretation

The identification of underlying conditions among COVID-19 cases may help identify those at highest risk of the worst health outcomes and inform preventive strategies to improve outcomes.

Funding

This study was supported by the Health Service Executive, Health Protection Surveillance Centre. KEB and MM are funded by the Health Research Board (RL-15-1579 and EIA-2019-012 respectively).

A Vulnerability Analysis for the Management of and Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Second Most Populous State in Brazil

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to affect all individuals, however in a heterogeneous way. In this sense, identifying specificities of each location is essential to minimize the damage caused by the disease. Therefore, the aim of this research was to assess the vulnerability of 853 municipalities in the second most populous state in Brazil, Minas Gerais (MG), in order to direct public policies. An epidemiological study was carried out based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) using indicators with some relation to the process of illness and death caused by COVID-19. The indicators were selected by a literature search and categorized into: demographic, social, economic, health infrastructure, population at risk and epidemiological. The variables were collected in Brazilian government databases at the municipal level and evaluated according to MCDA, through the Program to Support Decision Making based on Indicators (PRADIN). Based on this approach, the study performed simulations by category of indicators and a general simulation that allowed to divide the municipalities into groups of 1-5, with 1 being the least vulnerable and 5 being the most vulnerable. The groupings of municipalities were exposed in their respective mesoregions of MG in a thematic map, using the software Tabwin 32. The results revealed that the mesoregion of Norte de Minas stands out with more than 40% of its municipalities belonging to group 5, according to economic, social and health infrastructure indicators. Similarly, the Jequitinhonha mesoregion exhibited almost 60% of the municipalities in this group for economic and health infrastructure indicators. For demographic and epidemiological criteria, the Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte was the most vulnerable mesoregion, with 42.9 and 26.7% of the municipalities in group 5, respectively. Considering the presence of a population at risk, Zona da Mata reported 42.3% of the municipalities in the most vulnerable group. In the joint analysis of data, the Jequitinhonha, Vale do Mucuri and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions were the most vulnerable in the state of MG. Thus, through the outlined profile, the present study proved how socioeconomic diversity affects the vulnerability of the municipalities to face COVID-19 outbreak, highlighting the need for interventions directed to each reality.

Anxiety levels and solution-focused thinking skills of nurses and midwives working in primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic: A descriptive correlational study

AIMS

To determine the state-trait anxiety levels and solution-focused thinking skills of primary care nurses/midwives during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to evaluate the factors affecting these variables and the determinants of state-trait anxiety levels.

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 outbreak has created intense anxiety in nurses/midwives that may affect the care they provide. Nurses and midwives may manage anxiety using solution-focused thinking skills.

METHODS

This descriptive correlational study included 170 nurses/midwives at 61 family health centres evaluated from 1 August to 14 September 2020.

RESULTS

The participants' state and trait anxiety scores were above average, indicating a moderate level of anxiety and the mean total solution-focused inventory scores were at a moderate level. It was determined that 47.9% of the variance in state anxiety scores could be explained by trait anxiety, age, years of professional experience, chronic illness, type of work shift during the pandemic, follow-up of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using computed tomography or a COVID-19 test, and whether the institution was taking necessary measures against COVID-19. There was a negative relationship between state anxiety and solution-focused inventory total score.

CONCLUSION

Nurses/midwives displayed a moderate level of anxiety and solution-focused thinking skills during the COVID-19 pandemic.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT

Steps should be taken to improve nurses' solution-focused thinking skills to enable them to organise quickly and manage care processes successfully in extraordinary circumstances such as pandemics. Moreover, personal empowerment programmes should be recommended for nurses and midwives to help them cope with anxiety.

Characteristics of a COVID-19 confirmed case series in primary care (COVID-19-PC project): a cross-sectional study

Background

To estimate the prevalence of symptoms and signs related to a COVID-19 case series confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for SARS-CoV-2. Risk factors and the associated use of health services will also be analysed.

Methods

Observational, descriptive, retrospective case series study. The study was performed at two Primary Care Health Centres located in Madrid, Spain. The subjects studied were all PCR SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases older than 18 years, diagnosed from the beginning of the community transmission (March 13) until April 15, 2020. We collected sociodemographic, clinical, health service utilization and clinical course variables during the following months. All data was gathered by their own attending physician, and electronic medical records were reviewed individually. Statistical analysis: A descriptive analysis was carried out and a Poisson regression model was adjusted to study associated factors to Health Services use.

Results

Out of the 499 patients studied from two health centres, 55.1% were women and mean age was 58.2 (17.3). 25.1% were healthcare professionals. The most frequent symptoms recorded related to COVID-19 were cough (77.9%; CI 95% 46.5–93.4), fever (77.7%; CI95% 46.5–93.4) and dyspnoea (54.1%, CI95% 46.6–61.4). 60.7% were admitted to hospital. 64.5% first established contact with their primary care provider before going to the hospital, with a mean number of 11.4 Healthcare Providers Encounters with primary care during all the follow-up period.

The number of visit-encounters with primary care was associated with being male [IRR 1.072 (1.013, 1.134)], disease severity {from mild respiratory infection [IRR 1.404 (1.095, 1.801)], up to bilateral pneumonia [IRR 1.852 (1.437,2.386)]}, and the need of a work leave [IRR 1.326 (1.244, 1.413].

Conclusion

Symptoms and risk factors in our case series are similar to those in other studies. There was a high number of patients with atypical unilateral or bilateral pneumonia. Care for COVID has required a high use of healthcare resources such as clinical encounters and work leaves.

Changes in smoking and alcohol consumption during COVID-19-related lockdown: A cross-sectional study in France

BACKGROUND

In many countries, lockdown measures were implemented to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. This situation may have an impact on mental health, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. The aim of this research report is therefore to describe changes in tobacco and alcohol consumption in the general French population during the first two weeks of lockdown and identify any associated factors.

METHODS

Self-reported changes in smoking and alcohol consumption following the lockdown implemented in France on March 17, 2020 were collected from 2,003 respondents aged 18 years and older in an online cross-sectional survey carried out from March 30 to April 1, 2020. Anxiety and depression levels were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale.

RESULTS

Among current smokers, 26.7% reported an increase in their tobacco consumption since lockdown and 18.6% reported a decrease, while it remained stable for 54.7%. The increase in tobacco consumption was associated with an age of 18-34 years, a high level of education, and anxiety. Among alcohol drinkers, 10.7% reported an increase in their alcohol consumption since lockdown and 24.4% reported a decrease, while it remained stable for 64.8%. The increase in alcohol consumption was associated with an age of 18-49 years, living in cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants, a high socio-professional category, and a depressive mood.

CONCLUSION

The national lockdown implemented in France during the COVID-19 pandemic influenced tobacco and alcohol consumption in different ways according to sociodemographic group and mental health.

Interaction Effects between COVID-19 Outbreak and Community Income Levels on Excess Mortality among Patients Visiting Emergency Departments

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to examine the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on excess in-hospital mortality among patients who visited emergency departments (EDs) and to assess whether the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic varies by community income level.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study using the National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) database in Korea. The study population was defined as patients who visited all 402 EDs with medical conditions other than injuries between January 27 and May 31, 2020 (after-COVID) and for the corresponding time period in 2019 (before-COVID). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The main exposure was the COVID-19 outbreak, and the interaction variable was county per capita income tax. We calculated the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates by COVID-19 outbreak, as well as the difference-in-difference of risk-adjusted rates between the before-COVID and after-COVID groups according to the county income tax using a multilevel linear regression model with the interaction term.

RESULTS

A total of 11,662,167 patients (6,765,717 in before-COVID and 4,896,450 in after-COVID) were included in the study with a 1.6% crude in-hospital mortality rate. The risk-adjusted mortality rate in the after-COVID group was higher than that in the before-COVID group (1.82% vs. 1.50%, difference: 0.31% [0.30 to 0.33]; adjusted odds ratio: 1.22 [1.18 to 1.25]). The excess in-hospital mortality rate of the after-COVID in the lowest quartile group of county income tax was significantly higher than that in the highest quartile group (difference-in-difference: 0.18% (0.14 to 0.23); P-for-interaction: < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was excess in-hospital mortality among patients who visited EDs, and there were disparities in excess mortality depending on community socioeconomic positions.

Longitudinal assessment of symptoms and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers across 5 hospitals to understand ethnic differences in infection risk

BACKGROUND

: Healthcare workers (HCWs) have increased rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with the general population. We aimed to understand ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among hospital healthcare workers depending on their hospital role, socioeconomic status, Covid-19 symptoms and basic demographics.

METHODS

A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study. 1364 HCWs at five UK hospitals were studied with up to 16 weeks of symptom questionnaires and antibody testing (to both nucleocapsid and spike protein) during the first UK wave in five NHS hospitals between March 20 and July 10 2020. The main outcome measures were SARS-CoV-2 infection (seropositivity at any time-point) and symptoms. Registration number: NCT04318314.

FINDINGS

272 of 1364 HCWs (mean age 40.7 years, 72% female, 74% White, ≥6 samples per participant) seroconverted, reporting predominantly mild or no symptoms. Seropositivity was lower in Intensive Therapy Unit (ITU) workers (OR=0.44 95%CI 0.24, 0.77; p=0.0035). Seropositivity was higher in Black (compared to White) participants, independent of age, sex, role and index of multiple deprivation (OR=2.61 95%CI 1.47-4.62 p=0.0009). No association was seen between White HCWs and other minority ethnic groups.

INTERPRETATION

In the UK first wave, Black ethnicity (but not other ethnicities) more than doubled HCWs likelihood of seropositivity, independent of age, sex, measured socio-economic factors and hospital role.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission among children and staff in daycare centres during a nationwide lockdown in France: a cross-sectional, multicentre, seroprevalence study

Background

The extent to which very young children contribute to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is unclear. We aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in daycare centres that remained open for key workers' children during a nationwide lockdown in France.

Methods

Children and staff who attended one of 22 daycare centres during a nationwide lockdown in France (between March 15 and May 9, 2020) were included in this cross-sectional, multicentre, seroprevalence study. Hospital staff not occupationally exposed to patients with COVID-19, or to children, were enrolled in a comparator group. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children, daycare centre staff, and the comparator group. The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in capillary whole blood was measured with a rapid chromatographic immunoassay. We computed raw prevalence as the percentage of individuals with a positive IgG or IgM test, and used Bayesian smoothing to account for imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the assay. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04413968.

Findings

Between June 4 and July 3, 2020, we enrolled 327 children (mean age 1·9 [SD 0·9] years; range 5 months to 4·4 years), 197 daycare centre staff (mean age 40 [12] years), and 164 adults in the comparator group (42 [12] years). Positive serological tests were observed for 14 children (raw seroprevalence 4·3%; 95% CI 2·6–7·1) and 14 daycare centre staff (7·7%; 4·2–11·6). After accounting for imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the assay, we estimated that 3·7% (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 1·3–6·8) of the children and 6·8% (3·2–11·5) of daycare centre staff had SARS-CoV-2 infection. The comparator group fared similarly to the daycare centre staff; nine participants had a positive serological test (raw seroprevalence 5·5%; 95% CI 2·9–10·1), leading to a seroprevalence of 5·0% (95% CrI 1·6–9·8) after accounting for assay characteristics. An exploratory analysis suggested that seropositive children were more likely than seronegative children to have been exposed to an adult household member with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (six [43%] of 14 vs 19 [6%] of 307; relative risk 7·1 [95% CI 2·2–22·4]).

Interpretation

According to serological test results, the proportion of young children in our sample with SARS-CoV-2 infection was low. Intrafamily transmission seemed more plausible than transmission within daycare centres. Further epidemiological studies are needed to confirm this exploratory hypothesis.

Funding

Assistance Publique—Hôpitaux de Paris; Mairie de Paris, Conseil Départemental de Seine Saint Denis.

Translations

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Characteristics and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 in children tested in the early phase of the pandemic: a cross-sectional study, Italy, 23 February to 24 May 2020

BackgroundVery few studies describe factors associated with COVID-19 diagnosis in children.AimWe here describe characteristics and risk factors for COVID-19 diagnosis in children tested in 20 paediatric centres across Italy.MethodsWe included cases aged 0-18 years tested between 23 February and 24 May 2020. Our primary analysis focused on children tested because of symptoms/signs suggestive of COVID-19.ResultsAmong 2,494 children tested, 2,148 (86.1%) had symptoms suggestive of COVID-19. Clinical presentation of confirmed COVID-19 cases included besides fever (82.4%) and respiratory signs or symptoms (60.4%) also gastrointestinal (18.2%), neurological (18.9%), cutaneous (3.8%) and other unspecific influenza-like presentations (17.8%). In multivariate analysis, factors significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity were: exposure history (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 39.83; 95% confidence interval (CI): 17.52-90.55; p < 0.0001), cardiac disease (AOR: 3.10; 95% CI: 1.19-5.02; p < 0.0001), fever (AOR: 3.05%; 95% CI: 1.67-5.58; p = 0.0003) and anosmia/ageusia (AOR: 4.08; 95% CI: 1.69-9.84; p = 0.002). Among 190 (7.6%) children positive for SARS-CoV-2, only four (2.1%) required respiratory support and two (1.1%) were admitted to intensive care; all recovered.ConclusionRecommendations for SARS-CoV-2 testing in children should consider the evidence of broader clinical features. Exposure history, fever and anosmia/ageusia are strong risk factors in children for positive SARS-CoV-2 testing, while other symptoms did not help discriminate positive from negative individuals. This study confirms that COVID-19 was a mild disease in the general paediatric population in Italy. Further studies are needed to understand risk, clinical spectrum and outcomes of COVID-19 in children with pre-existing conditions.

Risk of acute pulmonary embolism in COVID-19 pneumonia compared to community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective case-control study

AIM

To compare the incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 pneumonia and non-COVID-19-related community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in hospitalised patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective case-control study was conducted. This included patients hospitalised with pneumonia and investigated for suspected PE with computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (CTPA). Cases were defined as patients with COVID-19 pneumonia from 1 March 2020 to 17 May 2020; controls were patients with CAP from 5 July 2019 to 31 January 2020. The primary outcome was to determine the risk of developing PE in both groups. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratio for PE.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty-four patients were included; 72 cases (47% male; mean age 59 (±15) years), and 72 controls (56% male; mean age 58 (±20) years). PE was diagnosed in 23.6% of the cases versus 6.9% of the controls. The adjusted odds ratio for PE in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia compared with those with CAP was 3.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-10.04, p=0.04).

CONCLUSION

The odds of developing PE in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia are three-times higher than in those with CAP. The results provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of PE in COVID-19 pneumonia, a condition new to healthcare, compared to other forms of pneumonia with a well-established scientific basis.

Social determinants of COVID-19 incidence and outcomes: A rapid review

Early reports indicate that the social determinants of health are implicated in COVID-19 incidence and outcomes. To inform the ongoing response to the pandemic, we conducted a rapid review of peer-reviewed studies to examine the social determinants of COVID-19. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from December 1, 2019 to April 27, 2020. We also searched the bibliographies of included studies, COVID-19 evidence repositories and living evidence maps, and consulted with expert colleagues internationally. We included studies identified through these supplementary sources up to June 25, 2020. We included English-language peer-reviewed quantitative studies that used primary data to describe the social determinants of COVID-19 incidence, clinical presentation, health service use and outcomes in adults with a confirmed or presumptive diagnosis of COVID-19. Two reviewers extracted data and conducted quality assessment, confirmed by a third reviewer. Forty-two studies met inclusion criteria. The strongest evidence was from three large observational studies that found associations between race or ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation and increased likelihood of COVID-19 incidence and subsequent hospitalization. Limited evidence was available on other key determinants, including occupation, educational attainment, housing status and food security. Assessing associations between sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 was limited by small samples, descriptive study designs, and the timeframe of our search. Systematic reviews of literature published subsequently are required to fully understand the magnitude of any effects and predictive utility of sociodemographic factors related to COVID-19 incidence and outcomes. PROSPERO: CRD4202017813.

Hepatic Steatosis, Rather Than Underlying Obesity, Increases the Risk of Infection and Hospitalization for COVID-19

Objective: Obesity is a risk factor for SARS-COV2 infection and is often associated with hepatic steatosis. The aim of this study was to determine if pre-existing hepatic steatosis affects the risk of infection and severity for COVID-19. Design: Prospective cohort study (UK Biobank). Univariate and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on liver phenotypic biomarkers to determine if these variables increased risk of testing positive and being hospitalized for COVID-19; then compared to previously described risk factors associated with COVID-19, including age, ethnicity, gender, obesity, socio-economic status. Setting: UK biobank study. Participants: 502,506 participants (healthy at baseline) in the UK Biobank, of whom 41,791 underwent MRI (aged 50-83) for assessment of liver fat, liver fibro-inflammatory disease, and liver iron. Positive COVID-19 test was determined from UK testing data, starting in March 2020 and censored in January 2021. Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Liver fat measured as proton density fat fraction (PDFF%) MRI and body mass index (BMI, Kg/m²) to assess prior to February 2020 using MRI of the liver to assess hepatic steatosis. Results: Within the imaged cohort (n = 41, 791), 4,458 had been tested and 1,043 (2.49% of the imaged population) tested positive for COVID-19. Individuals with fatty liver (≥10%) were at increased risk of testing positive (OR: 1.35, p = 0.007) and those participants with obesity and fatty liver, were at increased risk of hospitalization with a positive test result by 5.14 times (p = 0.0006). Conclusions: UK Biobank data revealed obese individuals with fatty liver disease were at increased risk of infection and hospitalization for COVID-19. Public policy measures and personalized medicine should be considered in order to protect these high-risk individuals.

Azithromycin for community treatment of suspected COVID-19 in people at increased risk of an adverse clinical course in the UK (PRINCIPLE): a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial

BACKGROUND

Azithromycin, an antibiotic with potential antiviral and anti-inflammatory properties, has been used to treat COVID-19, but evidence from community randomised trials is lacking. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of azithromycin to treat suspected COVID-19 among people in the community who had an increased risk of complications.

METHODS

In this UK-based, primary care, open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomised trial of interventions against COVID-19 in people at increased risk of an adverse clinical course (PRINCIPLE), we randomly assigned people aged 65 years and older, or 50 years and older with at least one comorbidity, who had been unwell for 14 days or less with suspected COVID-19, to usual care plus azithromycin 500 mg daily for three days, usual care plus other interventions, or usual care alone. The trial had two coprimary endpoints measured within 28 days from randomisation: time to first self-reported recovery, analysed using a Bayesian piecewise exponential, and hospital admission or death related to COVID-19, analysed using a Bayesian logistic regression model. Eligible participants with outcome data were included in the primary analysis, and those who received the allocated treatment were included in the safety analysis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN86534580.

FINDINGS

The first participant was recruited to PRINCIPLE on April 2, 2020. The azithromycin group enrolled participants between May 22 and Nov 30, 2020, by which time 2265 participants had been randomly assigned, 540 to azithromycin plus usual care, 875 to usual care alone, and 850 to other interventions. 2120 (94%) of 2265 participants provided follow-up data and were included in the Bayesian primary analysis, 500 participants in the azithromycin plus usual care group, 823 in the usual care alone group, and 797 in other intervention groups. 402 (80%) of 500 participants in the azithromycin plus usual care group and 631 (77%) of 823 participants in the usual care alone group reported feeling recovered within 28 days. We found little evidence of a meaningful benefit in the azithromycin plus usual care group in time to first reported recovery versus usual care alone (hazard ratio 1·08, 95% Bayesian credibility interval [BCI] 0·95 to 1·23), equating to an estimated benefit in median time to first recovery of 0·94 days (95% BCI -0·56 to 2·43). The probability that there was a clinically meaningful benefit of at least 1·5 days in time to recovery was 0·23. 16 (3%) of 500 participants in the azithromycin plus usual care group and 28 (3%) of 823 participants in the usual care alone group were hospitalised (absolute benefit in percentage 0·3%, 95% BCI -1·7 to 2·2). There were no deaths in either study group. Safety outcomes were similar in both groups. Two (1%) of 455 participants in the azothromycin plus usual care group and four (1%) of 668 participants in the usual care alone group reported admission to hospital during the trial, not related to COVID-19.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings do not justify the routine use of azithromycin for reducing time to recovery or risk of hospitalisation for people with suspected COVID-19 in the community. These findings have important antibiotic stewardship implications during this pandemic, as inappropriate use of antibiotics leads to increased antimicrobial resistance, and there is evidence that azithromycin use increased during the pandemic in the UK.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and UK Department of Health and Social Care.

COVID-19 and Smoking: What Evidence Needs Our Attention?

The current COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although relevant studies show that the smoking rate of COVID-19 patients is relatively low, the current smoking status of people with COVID-19 cannot be accurately measured for reasons. Thus, it is difficult to assess the relationship between smoking and COVID-19. Smoking can increase the risk of severe COVID-19 symptoms and aggravate the condition of patients with COVID-19. Nicotine upregulates the expression of ACE2, which can also increase susceptibility to COVID-19, aggravatiing the disease. Although nicotine has certain anti-inflammatory effects, there is no evidence that it is related to COVID-19 treatment; therefore, smoking cannot be considered a preventative measure. Furthermore, smokers gathering and sharing tobacco may promote the spread of viruses. Despite the COVID-19 epidemic, the findings suggested that COVID-19 has not encouraged smokers to quit. Additionally, there is evidence that isolation at home has contributed to increased smoking behavior and increased quantities. Therefore, it is recommended that governments increase smoking cessation messaging as part of public health measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. This review analyzes the existing research on smoking's impact on COVID-19 so that governments and medical institutions can develop evidence-based smoking-related prevention and control measures for COVID-19.

Total predicted MHC-I epitope load is inversely associated with population mortality from SARS-CoV-2

Polymorphisms in MHC-I protein sequences across human populations significantly affect viral peptide binding capacity, and thus alter T cell immunity to infection. In the present study, we assess the relationship between observed SARS-CoV-2 population mortality and the predicted viral binding capacities of 52 common MHC-I alleles. Potential SARS-CoV-2 MHC-I peptides are identified using a consensus MHC-I binding and presentation prediction algorithm called EnsembleMHC. Starting with nearly 3.5 million candidates, we resolve a few hundred highly probable MHC-I peptides. By weighing individual MHC allele-specific SARS-CoV-2 binding capacity with population frequency in 23 countries, we discover a strong inverse correlation between predicted population SARS-CoV-2 peptide binding capacity and mortality rate. Our computations reveal that peptides derived from the structural proteins of the virus produce a stronger association with observed mortality rate, highlighting the importance of S, N, M, and E proteins in driving productive immune responses.

Evolution of inequalities in the coronavirus pandemics in Portugal: an ecological study

Background

Previous literature shows systematic differences in health according to socioeconomic status (SES). However, there is no clear evidence that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection might be different across SES in Portugal. This work identifies the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worst-affected municipalities at four different time points in Portugal measured by prevalence of cases, and seeks to determine if these worst-affected areas are associated with SES.

Methods

The worst-affected areas were defined using the spatial scan statistic for the cumulative number of cases per municipality. The likelihood of being in a worst-affected area was then modelled using logistic regressions, as a function of area-based SES and health services supply. The analyses were repeated at four different time points of the COVID-19 pandemic: 1 April, 1 May, 1 June, and 1 July, corresponding to two moments before and during the confinement period and two moments thereafter.

Results

Twenty municipalities were identified as worst-affected areas in all four time points, most in the coastal area in the Northern part of the country. The areas of lower unemployment were less likely to be a worst-affected area on the 1 April [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.36 (0.14–0.91)], 1 May [AOR = 0.03 (0.00–0.41)] and 1 July [AOR = 0.40 (0.16–1.05)].

Conclusion

This study shows a relationship between being in a worst-affected area and unemployment. Governments and public health authorities should formulate measures and be prepared to protect the most vulnerable groups.

Aldose Reductase: An Emerging Target for Development of Interventions for Diabetic Cardiovascular Complications

Diabetes is a leading cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Despite numerous treatments for cardiovascular disease (CVD), for patients with diabetes, these therapies provide less benefit for protection from CVD. These considerations spur the concept that diabetes-specific, disease-modifying therapies are essential to identify especially as the diabetes epidemic continues to expand. In this context, high levels of blood glucose stimulate the flux via aldose reductase (AR) pathway leading to metabolic and signaling changes in cells of the cardiovascular system. In animal models flux via AR in hearts is increased by diabetes and ischemia and its inhibition protects diabetic and non-diabetic hearts from ischemia-reperfusion injury. In mouse models of diabetic atherosclerosis, human AR expression accelerates progression and impairs regression of atherosclerotic plaques. Genetic studies have revealed that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the ALD2 (human AR gene) is associated with diabetic complications, including cardiorenal complications. This Review presents current knowledge regarding the roles for AR in the causes and consequences of diabetic cardiovascular disease and the status of AR inhibitors in clinical trials. Studies from both human subjects and animal models are presented to highlight the breadth of evidence linking AR to the cardiovascular consequences of diabetes.

UK prevalence of underlying conditions which increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease: a point prevalence study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Characterising the size and distribution of the population at risk of severe COVID-19 is vital for effective policy and planning. Older age, and underlying health conditions, are associated with higher risk of death from COVID-19. This study aimed to describe the population at risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions across the United Kingdom.

METHODS

We used anonymised electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD to estimate the point prevalence on 5 March 2019 of the at-risk population following national guidance. Prevalence for any risk condition and for each individual condition is given overall and stratified by age and region with binomial exact confidence intervals. We repeated the analysis on 5 March 2014 for full regional representation and to describe prevalence of underlying health conditions in pregnancy. We additionally described the population of cancer survivors, and assessed the value of linked secondary care records for ascertaining COVID-19 at-risk status.

RESULTS

On 5 March 2019, 24.4% of the UK population were at risk due to a record of at least one underlying health condition, including 8.3% of school-aged children, 19.6% of working-aged adults, and 66.2% of individuals aged 70 years or more. 7.1% of the population had multimorbidity. The size of the at-risk population was stable over time comparing 2014 to 2019, despite increases in chronic liver disease and diabetes and decreases in chronic kidney disease and current asthma. Separately, 1.6% of the population had a new diagnosis of cancer in the past 5 y.

CONCLUSIONS

The population at risk of severe COVID-19 (defined as either aged ≥70 years, or younger with an underlying health condition) comprises 18.5 million individuals in the UK, including a considerable proportion of school-aged and working-aged individuals. Our national estimates broadly support the use of Global Burden of Disease modelled estimates in other countries. We provide age- and region- stratified prevalence for each condition to support effective modelling of public health interventions and planning of vaccine resource allocation. The high prevalence of health conditions among older age groups suggests that age-targeted vaccination strategies may efficiently target individuals at higher risk of severe COVID-19.

Prevalence of COVID-19 in adolescents and youth compared with older adults in states experiencing surges

PURPOSE

There has been considerable controversy regarding susceptibility of adolescents (10-19 years) and youth (15-24 years) to COVID-19. However, a number of studies have reported that adolescents are significantly less susceptible than older adults. Summer 2020 provided an opportunity to examine data on prevalence since after months of lockdowns, with the easing of restrictions, people were mingling, leading to surges in cases.

METHODS

We examined data from Departments of Health websites in six U.S. states experiencing surges in cases to determine prevalence of COVID-19, and two prevalence-related measures, in adolescents and youth as compared to older adults. The two other measures related to prevalence were: (Percentage of cases observed in a given age group) ÷ (percentage of cases expected based on population demographics); and percentage deviation, or [(% observed-% expected)/ % expected] x 100.

RESULTS

Prevalence of COVID-19 for adolescents and for youth was significantly greater than for older adults (p < .00001), as was percentage observed ÷ percentage expected (p < .005). The percentage deviation was significantly greater in adolescents/youth than in older adults (p < 0.00001) when there was an excess of observed cases over what was expected, and significantly less when observed cases were fewer than expected (p< 0.00001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are contrary to previous findings that adolescents are less susceptible than older adults. Possible reasons for the findings are suggested, and we note that public health messaging targeting adolescents and youth might be helpful in curbing the pandemic. Also, the findings of the potential for high transmission among adolescents and youth, should be factored into decisions regarding school reopening.

Differences in COVID-19-Related Testing and Healthcare Utilization by Race and Ethnicity in the Veterans Health Administration

Importance

Recent reports indicate differences in COVID-19-related care and outcomes between Black and White Americans.

Objective

We examine the COVID-19-related healthcare utilization and mortality by race and ethnicity of patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

Design

A retrospective cohort study.

Setting

We used the VHA COVID-19 shared data resources between February 1 and June 30, 2020.

Participants

Veterans tested for SARS-CoV-2 virus by VHA.

Exposure(s)

Three racial-ethnicity groups of Black, Hispanic, and White (as reference) veterans.

Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)

Main outcomes are testing rate, positivity rate, hospitalization rate, ICU admission rate, and in-hospital mortality. Controlling for sex, age, and Elixhauser comorbidity index, we report adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) from logistic regression models.

Results

Of the 8,667,996 active veteran enrollees, 252,702 were tested by VHA from February to June, 2020, with 20,500 positive results and 4,790 hospitalizations. The testing rate was 4.4% among Black and 4.7% among Hispanic veterans compared to White veterans, 2.8%. The testing positivity rate was similarly elevated among Black (12.2%) and Hispanic (11.6%) veterans compared to White veterans (6.0%). The aORs of hospitalization in Black veterans (1.88; 95% CI 1.74, 2.03) and Hispanic veterans (1.41; 95% CI 1.25, 1.60) were higher compared to White veterans. No significant differences by race and ethnicity were observed in OR or aOR of ICU admission and in-hospital death among hospitalized patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

On a national level, the VHA was more likely to test and hospitalize Black and Hispanic veterans compared to White veterans, but there were no significant differences in ICU admission or in-hospital mortality among those hospitalized. This pattern of differences may relate to social determinants of health, factors affecting access to non-VHA care, or preferences for VHA care affecting initial care seeking, but not in-hospital outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40615-021-00982-0.

COVID-19 and Vulnerable Populations in Sub-Saharan Africa

The novel corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak which started in Hubei province in China has now spread to every corner of the earth. While the pandemic started later in Africa, it is now found in all African countries to varying degrees. It is thought that the prevalence and severity of disease is influenced by a number of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) which are all becoming increasingly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In addition, SSA bears the major burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) infections. While data from Europe and the United States show that children are spared severe disease, it is uncertain if the same holds true in SSA where children suffer from sickle cell disease and malnutrition in addition to other infectious diseases. There is limited data from Africa on the effects of these conditions on COVID-19. In this review, we discuss the epidemiology of some of these conditions in Africa and the possible pathogenesis for the interactions of these with COVID-19.

Universal COVID-19 screening of 4040 health care workers in a resource-limited setting: an Egyptian pilot model in a university with 12 public hospitals and medical centers

BACKGROUND

The scale of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among health care workers (HCWs), particularly in resource-limited settings, remains unclear. To address this concern, universal (non-symptom-based) screening of HCWs was piloted to determine the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the associated epidemiological and clinical risk factors at a large public health care facility in Egypt.

METHODS

Baseline voluntary screening of 4040 HCWs took place between 22 April and 14 May 2020 at 12 hospitals and medical centres in Cairo. Epidemiological and clinical data were collected using an online survey. All participants were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and rapid IgM and IgG serological tests.

RESULTS

Of the 4040 HCWs screened, 170 [4.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6-4.9] tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by either of the three tests (i.e. infected); 125/170 (73.5%) tested PCR-positive. Most infected HCWs were nurses (97/170, 57.5%). Median age of infected HCWs was 31.5 [interquartile range (IQR): 27.0-41.3] years. Of infected HCWs, 78 (45.9%) reported contact with a suspected case and 47 (27.6%) reported face-to-face contact within 2 m with a confirmed case. The proportion of infection among symptomatic HCWs (n = 54/616) was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.7-11.3); 6/54 (11.1%) had fever ≥38°C and 7/54 (13.0%) reported severe symptoms. Most infected HCWs were asymptomatic (116/170, 68.2%). The proportion of infection among asymptomatic HCWs (n = 116/3424) was 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8-4.0).

CONCLUSIONS

The high rate of asymptomatic infections among HCWs reinforces the need for expanding universal regular testing. The infection rate among symptomatic HCWs in this study is comparable with the national rate detected through symptom-based testing. This suggests that infections among HCWs may reflect community rather than nosocomial transmission during the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt.

Cross sectional investigation of a COVID-19 outbreak at a London Army barracks: Neutralising antibodies and virus isolation

BACKGROUND

Military personnel in enclosed societies are at increased risk of respiratory infections. We investigated an outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a London Army barracks early in the pandemic.

METHODS

Army personnel, their families and civilians had nasal and throat swabs for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by reverse transcriptase -polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), virus isolation and whole genome sequencing, along with blood samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. All tests were repeated 36 days later.

FINDINGS

During the first visit, 304 (254 Army personnel, 10 family members, 36 civilians, 4 not stated) participated and 24/304 (8%) were SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive. Infectious virus was isolated from 7/24 (29%). Of the 285 who provided a blood sample, 7% (19/285) were antibody positive and 63% (12/19) had neutralising antibodies. Twenty-two (22/34, 64%) individuals with laboratory-confirmed infection were asymptomatic. Nine SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive participants were also antibody positive but those who had neutralising antibodies did not have infectious virus. At the second visit, no new infections were detected, and 13% (25/193) were seropositive, including 52% (13/25) with neutralising antibodies. Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity included contact with a confirmed case (RR 25.2; 95% CI 14-45), being female (RR 2.5; 95% CI 1.0-6.0) and two-person shared bathroom (RR 2.6; 95% CI 1.1-6.4).

INTERPRETATION

We identified high rates of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Public Health control measures can mitigate spread but virus re-introduction from asymptomatic individuals remains a risk. Most seropositive individuals had neutralising antibodies and infectious virus was not recovered from anyone with neutralising antibodies.

FUNDING

PHE.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Mexico: Symptomatic profiles and presymptomatic people

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 diagnosis is difficult and ambiguous due to nonspecific symptoms. Further, data from Mexico arehospitable population-based without signs and symptoms information. Thus, this work aims to provide epidemiology information about the burden of COVID-19 in Mexican outpatients and to identify symptomatic COVID-19 profiles that could help in the early diagnosis of the disease.

METHODS

From June to September, epidemiological, clinical, and demographic data of 482,413 individuals diagnosed by RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 in Salud Digna clinics were collected.

RESULTS

We observed a 41% incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections with a mean age of 36 years and with young adults (20-40 years) being the most affected. Among occupations, delivery persons (OR 1.38) or informal traders (OR 1.33) had a higher risk of COVID-19. Moreover, 13% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were in presymptomatic patients. Finally, we identified three different symptomatic profiles (common, respiratory, and gastrointestinal) associated with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 was high among outpatients with a significant proportion of presymptomatic carriers, and thus it is necessary to increase testing and continue SARS-CoV-2 surveillance with a better description of signs and symptoms; in this regard, we identified three symptomatic profiles that could help in the diagnosis of COVID-19.

The epidemiology of eczema in children and adults in England: A population-based study using primary care data

BACKGROUND

Whilst eczema is a common inflammatory skin condition, we lack contemporary estimates of disease incidence and prevalence across the lifespan.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence and prevalence of eczema in children and adults in England and variation by sociodemographic factors (sex, socio-economic status, ethnicity, and geography).

METHODS

We used the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care research database of 3.85 million children and adults registered with participating general practitioner practices between 2009 and 2018 inclusive. Eczema incidence was defined as the first-ever diagnosis of eczema recorded in the primary care record, and eczema prevalence was defined as fulfilment of criteria for active eczema (two eczema records appearing in the primary care record within any one-year period).

RESULTS

Eczema incidence was highest in infants younger than 1 year (15.0 per 100 person-years), lowest in adults aged 40-49 (0.35 p/100 person-years), and increased from middle age to a second smaller peak in people 80 years or older (0.79 p/100 person-years). Eczema prevalence was highest in children aged 2 (16.5%) and lowest in adults aged 30-39 (2.8%). Eczema incidence was higher in male infants (<2) and male adults older than 70; for all other ages, incidence was higher in females. Eczema was more common in Asian and black ethnic groups than in people of white ethnicity. Higher socio-economic status was associated with a greater incidence of eczema in infants younger than 2, but the reverse was seen for all other age groups. Both incidence and prevalence of eczema were greater in urban settings and in North-West England.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Eczema has a bimodal distribution across the lifespan. We observed differences in incidence and prevalence of eczema by ethnicity, geography, sex, and socio-economic status, which varied in magnitude throughout life.

Shorter androgen receptor polyQ alleles protect against life-threatening COVID-19 disease in European males

Background

While SARS-CoV-2 similarly infects men and women, COVID-19 outcome is less favorable in men. Variability in COVID-19 severity may be explained by differences in the host genome.

Methods

We compared poly-amino acids variability from WES data in severely affected COVID-19 patients versus SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive oligo-asymptomatic subjects.

Findings

Shorter polyQ alleles (≤22) in the androgen receptor (AR) conferred protection against severe outcome in COVID-19 in the first tested cohort (both males and females) of 638 Italian subjects. The association between long polyQ alleles (≥23) and severe clinical outcome (p = 0.024) was also validated in an independent cohort of Spanish men <60 years of age (p = 0.014). Testosterone was higher in subjects with AR long-polyQ, possibly indicating receptor resistance (p = 0.042 Mann-Whitney U test). Inappropriately low serum testosterone level among carriers of the long-polyQ alleles (p = 0.0004 Mann-Whitney U test) predicted the need for intensive care in COVID-19 infected men. In agreement with the known anti-inflammatory action of testosterone, patients with long-polyQ and age ≥60 years had increased levels of CRP (p = 0.018, not accounting for multiple testing).

Interpretation

We identify the first genetic polymorphism that appears to predispose some men to develop more severe disease. Failure of the endocrine feedback to overcome AR signaling defects by increasing testosterone levels during the infection leads to the polyQ tract becoming dominant to serum testosterone levels for the clinical outcome. These results may contribute to designing reliable clinical and public health measures and provide a rationale to test testosterone as adjuvant therapy in men with COVID-19 expressing long AR polyQ repeats.

Funding

MIUR project “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2020” to Department of Medical Biotechnologies University of Siena, Italy (Italian D.L. n.18 March 17, 2020) and “Bando Ricerca COVID-19 Toscana” project to Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Senese. Private donors for COVID-19 research and charity funds from Intesa San Paolo.

Obesity in COVID-19 era, implications for mechanisms, comorbidities, and prognosis: a review and meta-analysis

Background

Recent studies have shown that obesity is associated with the severity of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We reviewed clinical studies to clarify the obesity relationship with COVID-19 severity, comorbidities, and discussing possible mechanisms.

Materials and methods

The electronic databases, including Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar, were searched and all studies conducted on COVID-19 and obesity were reviewed. All studies were independently screened by reviewers based on their titles and abstracts.

Results

Forty relevant articles were selected, and their full texts were reviewed. Obesity affects the respiratory and immune systems through various mechanisms. Cytokine and adipokine secretion from adipose tissue leads to a pro-inflammatory state in obese patients, predisposing them to thrombosis, incoordination of innate and adaptive immune responses, inadequate antibody response, and cytokine storm. Obese patients had a longer virus shedding. Obesity is associated with other comorbidities such as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and vitamin D deficiency. Hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and even mortality in obese patients were higher than normal-weight patients. Obesity could alter the direction of severe COVID-19 symptoms to younger individuals. Reduced physical activity, unhealthy eating habits and, more stress and fear experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic may result in more weight gain and obesity.

Conclusions

Obesity should be considered as an independent risk factor for the severity of COVID-19. Paying more attention to preventing weight gain in obese patients with COVID-19 infection in early levels of disease is crucial during this pandemic.

Depression and anxiety in cancer patients before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: association with treatment delays

PURPOSE

Pandemics can be associated with anxiety and depression in cancer patients who are undergoing treatment. In the present study, we aimed to perform a comparative evaluation of the conditions of cancer patients before and during the severe acute respiratory distress syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) to detect the impact of the pandemic on treatment delays that are associated with anxiety and depression in cancer patients. In addition, the effect of public transport use on treatment delays was examined.

METHODS

BDI and BAI were administered to 595 breast, ovarian, colon and gastric cancer patients before and during the pandemic. The questionnaires were administered by the physician blindly, who was unaware of the delay of the patients. The number of days by which the patients delayed their treatment due to the fear of contamination were recorded retrospectively. Correlation analyses were performed between the obtained scores and treatment delays.

RESULTS

The depression and anxiety levels in cancer patients were found to increase during the pandemic (p = 0.000), and this increase was positively correlated with the disruption of their treatment (p = 0.000, r = 0.81). Depression and anxiety levels and treatment delays were higher in elderly patients (p = 0.021). Depression and anxiety were more pronounced in female patients (p = 0.000). Moreover, treatment delays were more common in patients who had to use public transportation (p = 0.038).

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may increase anxiety and depression in cancer patients. This can cause patients to experience treatment delays due to concerns about becoming infected. At this point, if necessary, assistance should be obtained from psychiatric and public health experts.

Influenza and Respiratory Virus Surveillance, Vaccine Uptake, and Effectiveness at a Time of Cocirculating COVID-19: Protocol for the English Primary Care Sentinel System for 2020-2021

Background

The Oxford–Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE) are commencing their 54th season of collaboration at a time when SARS-CoV-2 infections are likely to be cocirculating with the usual winter infections.

Objective

The aim of this study is to conduct surveillance of influenza and other monitored respiratory conditions and to report on vaccine uptake and effectiveness using nationally representative surveillance data extracted from primary care computerized medical records systems. We also aim to have general practices collect virology and serology specimens and to participate in trials and other interventional research.

Methods

The RCGP RSC network comprises over 1700 general practices in England and Wales. We will extract pseudonymized data twice weekly and are migrating to a system of daily extracts. First, we will collect pseudonymized, routine, coded clinical data for the surveillance of monitored and unexpected conditions; data on vaccine exposure and adverse events of interest; and data on approved research study outcomes. Second, we will provide dashboards to give general practices feedback about levels of care and data quality, as compared to other network practices. We will focus on collecting data on influenza-like illness, upper and lower respiratory tract infections, and suspected COVID-19. Third, approximately 300 practices will participate in the 2020-2021 virology and serology surveillance; this will include responsive surveillance and long-term follow-up of previous SARS-CoV-2 infections. Fourth, member practices will be able to recruit volunteer patients to trials, including early interventions to improve COVID-19 outcomes and point-of-care testing. Lastly, the legal basis for our surveillance with PHE is Regulation 3 of the Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002; other studies require appropriate ethical approval.

Results

The RCGP RSC network has tripled in size; there were previously 100 virology practices and 500 practices overall in the network and we now have 322 and 1724, respectively. The Oxford–RCGP Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) secure networks enable the daily analysis of the extended network; currently, 1076 practices are uploaded. We are implementing a central swab distribution system for patients self-swabbing at home in addition to in-practice sampling. We have converted all our primary care coding to Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) coding. Throughout spring and summer 2020, the network has continued to collect specimens in preparation for the winter or for any second wave of COVID-19 cases. We have collected 5404 swabs and detected 623 cases of COVID-19 through extended virological sampling, and 19,341 samples have been collected for serology. This shows our preparedness for the winter season.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a groundswell of general practices joining our network. It has also created a permissive environment in which we have developed the capacity and capability of the national primary care surveillance systems and our unique public health institute, the RCGP and University of Oxford collaboration.

Changes in Smoking Behaviour and Home-Smoking Rules during the Initial COVID-19 Lockdown Period in Israel

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused devastating impacts globally. To mitigate virus spread, Israel imposed severe restrictions during March–April 2020. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted in April 2020 among current and ex-smokers to explore changes in smoking behaviour and home-smoking rules during this period. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression examined associations between sociodemographic characteristics and perceived risk of infection and quitting smoking during the initial COVID-19 period. Current smoking was reported by 437 (66.2%) of the 660 participants, 46 (7%) quit during the initial restriction period, and 177 (26.8%) were ex-smokers. Nearly half (44.4%) of current smokers intensified their smoking, and 16% attempted to quit. Quitting during the COVID-19 period was significantly associated with higher education (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.97, 95% CI: 1.0–3.8), not living with a smoker (aOR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.0–4.4), and having an underlying chronic condition that increases risk for COVID-19 complications (aOR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.1–4.6). Both an increase in smoking behaviour and in attempts to quit smoking during the initial COVID-19 pandemic were evident in this sample of adult Israeli smokers. Governments need to use this opportunity to encourage smokers to attempt quitting and create smoke-free homes, especially during lockdown conditions, while providing mental and social support to all smokers.

Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission and COVID-19 mortality during the first COVID-19 wave with a special emphasis on ethnic minorities: an observational study of a single, deprived, multiethnic UK health economy

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to describe variations in COVID-19 outcomes in relation to local risks within a well-defined but diverse single-city area.

DESIGN

Observational study of COVID-19 outcomes using quality-assured integrated data from a single UK hospital contextualised to its feeder population and associated factors (comorbidities, ethnicity, age, deprivation).

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Single-city hospital with a feeder population of 228 632 adults in Wolverhampton.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hospital admissions (defined as COVID-19 admissions (CA) or non-COVID-19 admissions (NCA)) and mortality (defined as COVID-19 deaths or non-COVID-19 deaths).

RESULTS

Of the 5558 patients admitted, 686 died (556 in hospital); 930 were CA, of which 270 were hospital COVID-19 deaths, 47 non-COVID-19 deaths and 36 deaths after discharge; of the 4628 NCA, there were 239 in-hospital deaths (2 COVID-19) and 94 deaths after discharge. Of the 223 074 adults not admitted, 407 died. Age, gender, multimorbidity and black ethnicity (OR 2.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 3.2), p<0.001, compared with white ethnicity, absolute excess risk of <1/1000) were associated with CA and mortality. The South Asian cohort had lower CA and NCA, lower mortality compared with the white group (CA, 0.5 (0.3 to 0.8), p<0.01; NCA, 0.4 (0.3 to 0.6), p<0.001) and community deaths (0.5 (0.3 to 0.7), p<0.001). Despite many common risk factors for CA and NCA, ethnic groups had different admission rates and within-group differing association of risk factors. Deprivation impacted only the white ethnicity, in the oldest age bracket and in a lesser (not most) deprived quintile.

CONCLUSIONS

Wolverhampton's results, reflecting high ethnic diversity and deprivation, are similar to other studies of black ethnicity, age and comorbidity risk in COVID-19 but strikingly different in South Asians and for deprivation. Sequentially considering population and then hospital-based NCA and CA outcomes, we present a complete single health economy picture. Risk factors may differ within ethnic groups; our data may be more representative of communities with high Black, Asian and minority ethnic populations, highlighting the need for locally focused public health strategies. We emphasise the need for a more comprehensible and nuanced conveyance of risk.

Surveillance of common respiratory infections during the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the preventive efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions

Objective

The emergence of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and its subsequent spread outside of Wuhan, China, led to the human society experiencing a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While the development of vaccines and pharmaceutical treatments are ongoing, government authorities in China have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions as primary barriers to curb the spread of the deadly SARS-CoV-2 virus. Although the decline of COVID-19 cases coincided with the implementation of such interventions, we searched for evidence to demonstrate the efficacy of these interventions, since artifactual factors, such as the environment, the pathogen itself, and the phases of epidemic, may also alter the patterns of case development.

Methods

We surveyed common viral respiratory infections that have a similar pattern of transmission, tropism, and clinical manifestation, as COVID-19 under a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the current pandemic season. We then compared this data with historical data from previous seasons without such interventions.

Results

Our survey showed that the rates of common respiratory infections, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infections, decreased dramatically from 13.7% (95% CI, 10.82–16.58) and 4.64% (95% CI, 2.88–7.64) in previous years to 0.73% (95% CI, 0.02–1.44) and 0.0%, respectively, in the current season.

Conclusions

Our surveillance provides compelling evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions are cost-effective ways to curb the spread of contagious agents, and may represent the only practical approach to limit the evolving epidemic until specific vaccines and pharmaceutical treatments are available.

Clinical Characterization of Patients With COVID-19 in Primary Care in Catalonia: Retrospective Observational Study

Background

The country of Spain has one of the highest incidences of COVID-19, with more than 1,000,000 cases as of the end of October 2020. Patients with a history of chronic conditions, obesity, and cancer are at greater risk from COVID-19; moreover, concerns surrounding the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin type II receptor blockers (ARBs) and its relationship to COVID-19 susceptibility have increased since the beginning of the pandemic.

Objective

The objectives of this study were to compare the characteristics of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 to those of patients without COVID-19 in primary care; to determine the risk factors associated with the outcome of mortality; and to determine the potential influence of certain medications, such as ACEIs and ARBs, on the mortality of patients with COVID-19.

Methods

An observational retrospective study of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Catalan Central Region of Spain between March 1 and August 17, 2020, was conducted. The data were obtained from the Primary Care Services Information Technologies System of the Catalan Institute of Health in Barcelona, Spain.

Results

The study population included 348,596 patients (aged >15 years) registered in the Primary Care Services Information Technologies System of the Catalan Central Region. The mean age of the patients was 49.53 years (SD 19.42), and 31.17% of the patients were aged ≥60 years. 175,484/348,596 patients (50.34%) were women. A total of 23,844/348,596 patients (6.84%) in the population studied were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the study period, and the most common clinical conditions of these patients were hypertension (5267 patients, 22.1%) and obesity (5181 patients, 21.7%). Overall, 2680/348,596 patients in the study population (0.77%) died during the study period. The number of deaths among patients without COVID-19 was 1825/324,752 (0.56%; mean age 80.6 years, SD 13.3), while among patients diagnosed with COVID-19, the number of deaths was 855/23,844 (3.58%; mean age 83.0 years, SD 10.80) with an OR of 6.58 (95% CI 6.06-7.15).

Conclusions

We observed that women were more likely to contract COVID-19 than men. In addition, our study did not show that hypertension, obesity, or being treated with ACEIs or ARBs was linked to an increase in mortality in patients with COVID-19. Age is the main factor associated with mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2.

The natural history of symptomatic COVID-19 during the first wave in Catalonia

The natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has yet to be fully described. Here, we use patient-level data from the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) to summarise COVID-19 outcomes in Catalonia, Spain. We included 5,586,521 individuals from the general population. Of these, 102,002 had an outpatient diagnosis of COVID-19, 16,901 were hospitalised with COVID-19, and 5273 died after either being diagnosed or hospitalised with COVID-19 between 1st March and 6th May 2020. Older age, being male, and having comorbidities were all generally associated with worse outcomes. These findings demonstrate the continued need to protect those at high risk of poor outcomes, particularly older people, from COVID-19 and provide appropriate care for those who develop symptomatic disease. While risks of hospitalisation and death were lower for younger populations, there is a need to limit their role in community transmission.

Obesity in the COVID era: A global health challenge

Obesity is a chronic disease that leads to an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may create a new health challenge. There is clear evidence showing that some biological and social factors associated with obesity involve an increased risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and greater severity compared to people with normal weight. Undoubtedly, obesity involves a low-grade proinflammatory state that produces a dysregulation of the immune system that compromises its ability to respond to respiratory infection by COVID-19 and so produces a worsening of the disease. In this review, the main epidemiological and pathophysiological data that associate obesity with COVID-19 are described.

Risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections: a nationwide population-based study

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly turned into a public health emergency worldwide; however, the risk factors for infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have not been well-described. We aimed to identify the clinical risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infections in Korea, where social distancing and face masks have been strongly recommended.

Methods

The data of individuals who underwent the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 between January 3 and May 31, 2020 were retrieved from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service dataset. We used multivariable logistic regression models to identify the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population.

Results

We retrieved the results of 219,729 SARS-CoV-2 tests, of which 7,333 were positive results. In the multivariable analysis, female sex was associated with a higher risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 [odds ratio (OR) =1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24–1.37, P<0.0001]. Additionally, populations living in areas that had large outbreaks of COVID-19 were at an increased risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (OR =6.87, 95% CI: 6.55–7.21, P<0.0001). The odds of a positive test were greater for the Medical Aid beneficiaries (OR =1.99, 95% CI: 1.82–2.18, P<0.0001) than for the National Health Insurance beneficiaries. Individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) were more likely to test positive (OR =1.15, 95% CI: 1.07–1.24, P=0.0002).

Conclusions

Women, individuals living in areas with large outbreaks of COVID-19, Medical Aid beneficiaries, and individuals with DM might have greater risks of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infections despite practicing social distancing and using face masks.

[Obesity in the COVID era: A global health challenge]

Obesity is a chronic disease that leads to an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may create a new health challenge. There is clear evidence showing that some biological and social factors associated with obesity involve an increased risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and greater severity compared to people with normal weight. Undoubtedly, obesity involves a low-grade proinflammatory state that produces a dysregulation of the immune system that compromises its ability to respond to respiratory infection by COVID-19 and so produces a worsening of the disease. In this review, the main epidemiological and pathophysiological data that associate obesity with COVID-19 are described.

Bidirectional associations between COVID-19 and psychiatric disorder: retrospective cohort studies of 62 354 COVID-19 cases in the USA

BACKGROUND

Adverse mental health consequences of COVID-19, including anxiety and depression, have been widely predicted but not yet accurately measured. There are a range of physical health risk factors for COVID-19, but it is not known if there are also psychiatric risk factors. In this electronic health record network cohort study using data from 69 million individuals, 62 354 of whom had a diagnosis of COVID-19, we assessed whether a diagnosis of COVID-19 (compared with other health events) was associated with increased rates of subsequent psychiatric diagnoses, and whether patients with a history of psychiatric illness are at a higher risk of being diagnosed with COVID-19.

METHODS

We used the TriNetX Analytics Network, a global federated network that captures anonymised data from electronic health records in 54 health-care organisations in the USA, totalling 69·8 million patients. TriNetX included 62 354 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between Jan 20, and Aug 1, 2020. We created cohorts of patients who had been diagnosed with COVID-19 or a range of other health events. We used propensity score matching to control for confounding by risk factors for COVID-19 and for severity of illness. We measured the incidence of and hazard ratios (HRs) for psychiatric disorders, dementia, and insomnia, during the first 14 to 90 days after a diagnosis of COVID-19.

FINDINGS

In patients with no previous psychiatric history, a diagnosis of COVID-19 was associated with increased incidence of a first psychiatric diagnosis in the following 14 to 90 days compared with six other health events (HR 2·1, 95% CI 1·8-2·5 vs influenza; 1·7, 1·5-1·9 vs other respiratory tract infections; 1·6, 1·4-1·9 vs skin infection; 1·6, 1·3-1·9 vs cholelithiasis; 2·2, 1·9-2·6 vs urolithiasis, and 2·1, 1·9-2·5 vs fracture of a large bone; all p<0·0001). The HR was greatest for anxiety disorders, insomnia, and dementia. We observed similar findings, although with smaller HRs, when relapses and new diagnoses were measured. The incidence of any psychiatric diagnosis in the 14 to 90 days after COVID-19 diagnosis was 18·1% (95% CI 17·6-18·6), including 5·8% (5·2-6·4) that were a first diagnosis. The incidence of a first diagnosis of dementia in the 14 to 90 days after COVID-19 diagnosis was 1·6% (95% CI 1·2-2·1) in people older than 65 years. A psychiatric diagnosis in the previous year was associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 diagnosis (relative risk 1·65, 95% CI 1·59-1·71; p<0·0001). This risk was independent of known physical health risk factors for COVID-19, but we cannot exclude possible residual confounding by socioeconomic factors.

INTERPRETATION

Survivors of COVID-19 appear to be at increased risk of psychiatric sequelae, and a psychiatric diagnosis might be an independent risk factor for COVID-19. Although preliminary, our findings have implications for clinical services, and prospective cohort studies are warranted.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Ethnic-minority groups in England and Wales-factors associated with the size and timing of elevated COVID-19 mortality: a retrospective cohort study linking census and death records

Background

We estimated population-level associations between ethnicity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality using a newly linked census-based data set and investigated how ethnicity-specific mortality risk evolved during the pandemic.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of respondents to the 2011 Census of England and Wales in private households, linked to death registrations and adjusted for emigration (n = 47 872 412). The outcome of interest was death involving COVID-19 between 2 March 2020 and 15 May 2020. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for ethnic-minority groups compared with the White population, controlling for individual, household and area characteristics. HRs were estimated on the full outcome period and separately for pre- and post-lockdown periods.

Results

In age-adjusted models, people from all ethnic-minority groups were at elevated risk of COVID-19 mortality; the HRs for Black males and females were 3.13 (95% confidence interval: 2.93 to 3.34) and 2.40 (2.20 to 2.61), respectively. However, in fully adjusted models for females, the HRs were close to unity for all ethnic groups except Black [1.29 (1.18 to 1.42)]. For males, the mortality risk remained elevated for the Black [1.76 (1.63 to 1.90)], Bangladeshi/Pakistani [1.35 (1.21 to 1.49)] and Indian [1.30 (1.19 to 1.43)] groups. The HRs decreased after lockdown for all ethnic groups, particularly Black and Bangladeshi/Pakistani females.

Conclusion

Differences in COVID-19 mortality between ethnic groups were largely attenuated by geographical and socio-demographic factors, though some residual differences remained. Lockdown was associated with reductions in excess mortality risk in ethnic-minority populations, which has implications for a second wave of infection.

How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, public health scientists have produced a large and rapidly expanding body of literature that aims to answer critical questions, such as the proportion of the population in a geographic area that has been infected; the transmissibility of the virus and factors associated with high infectiousness or susceptibility to infection; which groups are the most at risk of infection, morbidity and mortality; and the degree to which antibodies confer protection to re-infection. Observational studies are subject to a number of different biases, including confounding, selection bias, and measurement error, that may threaten their validity or influence the interpretation of their results. To assist in the critical evaluation of a vast body of literature and contribute to future study design, we outline and propose solutions to biases that can occur across different categories of observational studies of COVID-19. We consider potential biases that could occur in five categories of studies: (1) cross-sectional seroprevalence, (2) longitudinal seroprotection, (3) risk factor studies to inform interventions, (4) studies to estimate the secondary attack rate, and (5) studies that use secondary attack rates to make inferences about infectiousness and susceptibility.