The Association of Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime

Emerging Trends in Intimate Partner Rape and Marital/Spousal Rape During the Biennium 2020 and 2021, Including the COVID-19 Pandemic in Greece

Intimate partner or marital/spousal rape is a phenomenon with unique characteristics and dynamics. Furthermore, it is an under-explored, under-defined, under-reported, and widely tolerated phenomenon. Gender-based violence and intimate partner violence are the main topics of the present study. The study aimed at exploring the trends in reported intimate partner and marital/spousal rape, within the wider context of reported domestic violence during the years 2020 and 2021 in Greece. Statistical analysis has not indicated positive correlation between the rate of reported domestic violence per year and the rate of reported domestic rape per year, with the former following an upward trend and the latter maintaining an almost steady course. Similarly, the rate of reported victims of intimate partner rape per year remained almost stable within in the 2 years. Importantly however, in 2021, the rate of reported victims of marital rape per year increased remarkably compared to 2020. In 2021, the rates of reported domestic violence per month and reported domestic rape per month indicated remarkable increase over the period May to December 2021. Notwithstanding, the rates mentioned above remained almost stable over the year 2020, showing an upward trend during the summer months. In August 2020 and 2021 the abovementioned rates reached their peak. In both years, the vast majority of victims of domestic rape were females, mostly between 30 and 45 years of age. The present study indicated an increase in rates of reported domestic violence and reported domestic rape per month after the lockdowns, especially after the second long-lasting lockdown that ended in May 2021. This increase, however, might be only apparent. Further research is needed to study the epidemiology of intimate partner and marital rape over a much longer timespan to provide further insight into the dynamics surrounding a public health concern.

Short-term high temperature may increase the incidence risk of collective conflicts: A case-crossover study in the Greater Middle East

BACKGROUND

Violent conflict is a formidable global challenge, with long-lasting impacts on individual health and society security. There has been compelling evidence that heat can increase aggression intention on the individual level. However, little is known about the short-term relationship between ambient temperature and collective violent conflicts, especially in less developed regions.

METHOD

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) among 247,773 violent conflicts from 29 countries or regions in the Greater Middle East, between 1997 and 2021. Potential modification effects of economic status and climate conditions were explored by stratified analyses. Negative control and sensitivity analyses were also performed to test the robustness of our model.

RESULTS

We observed significant associations between higher temperature and the onset of five categories of violent conflicts. The effects generally occurred within the first several days after exposure. The incidence risks of battles, violence against civilians, explosions/remote violence, protests and riots were 1.60 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.31-1.95], 1.82 (95 % CI: 1.37-2.42), 1.24 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.41), 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.09-1.24) and 1.54 (95 % CI: 1.22-1.95) when comparing extreme high temperatures to minimum-risk temperatures. The associations were generally more prominent in areas with lower economic levels and associations in regions of the continental climate are also stronger.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding reveals novel and concrete evidence that short-term high temperature could increase the risk of multiple forms of violent conflict in the Greater Middle East and provides new insights into the potential short-term mechanisms under the heat-collective violence association.

Self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature from the global burden of disease study 2019: A 30-year assessment

BACKGROUND

The impact of global warming on health due to climate change is increasingly studied, but the global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperature is still limited. This study aimed to systematically assess the burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperature globally or by region and climate zone from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained the global, regional, and national deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) of self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature from 1990 to 2019 through the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature was estimated by age, sex, climate zone, the socio-demographic index (SDI), and the healthcare access and quality index (HAQ). Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in ASMR and ASDR were calculated for 1990-2019 using the Joinpoint model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global deaths and DALYs related to self-harm and interpersonal violence due to high temperature increased from 20,002 (95% UI, 9243 to 41,928) and 1,107,216 (95% UI, 512,062 to 2,319,477) to 26,459 (95% UI, 13,574 to 47,265) and 1,382,487 (95% UI, 722,060 to 2,474,441), respectively. However, the ASMR and ASDR showed varying degrees of decreasing trends, with decreases of 13.36% and 12.66%, respectively. The ASMR was high and declining in low and low-middle SDI regions, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, SDI and HAQ index were negatively correlated with ASMR in 204 countries and regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributed to high temperature has decreased over the past 30 years, but the number of deaths and DALYs continues to rise. Climate change continues to make heat stress a significant risk factor for self-harm and interpersonal violence worldwide.

A nationwide time-series analysis for short-term effects of ambient temperature on violent crime in South Korea

Psychological theories on heat-aggression relationship have existed for decades and recent models suggest climate change will increase violence through varying pathways. Although observational studies have examined the impact of temperature on violent crime, the evidence for associations is primarily limited to coarse temporal resolution of weather and crime (e.g., yearly/monthly) and results from a few Western communities, warranting studies based on higher temporal resolution data of modern systemic crime statistics for various regions. This observational study examined short-term temperature impacts on violent crime using national crime data for the warm months (Jun.-Sep.) across South Korea (2016-2020). Distributed lag non-linear models assessed relative risks (RRs) of daily violent crime counts at the 70th, 90th, and 99th summer temperature percentiles compared to the reference temperature (10th percentile), with adjustments for long-term trends, seasonality, weather, and air pollution. Results indicate potentially non-linear relationships between daily summer temperature (lag0-lag10) and violent crime counts. Violent crimes consistently increased from the lowest temperature and showed the highest risk at the 70th temperature (~ 28.0 °C). The RR at the 70th and 90th percentiles of daily mean temperature (lag0-lag10), compared to the reference, was 1.11 (95% CI 1.09, 1.15) and 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.07), indicating significant associations. Stratified analysis showed significant increases in assault and domestic violence for increases in temperature. The lagged effects, the influences of heat on subsequent crime incidence, did not persist 21 days after the exposure, possibly due to the displacement phenomenon. We found curvilinear exposure-response relationships, which provide empirical evidence to support the psychological theories for heat and violence. Lower public safety through increased violent crime may be an additional public health harm of climate change.

Prevention of suicides associated with global warming: perspectives from early career psychiatrists

Climate change poses significant challenges to global mental health, with potential consequences including increased rates of suicide and mental health disorders. Early Career Psychiatrists (ECPs) play a crucial role in addressing these challenges. The Climate Psychiatry Alliance, a group of psychiatrists dedicated to improving mental health amidst climate change, recognizes the importance of cultivating climate-aware ECPs. Training ECPs to become confident climate-aware clinicians enables them to effectively treat patients experiencing anxiety, depression, and PTSD in the context of climate-related distress. Together with other mental health professionals, ECPs can contribute to efforts by implementing strategies for monitoring and treating mental health problems arising from climate events. Additionally, they can raise awareness about the psychological consequences and risks of suicide associated with climate change. Collaboration among ECPs from various regions is essential in developing community-based approaches and reducing vulnerabilities. ECPs must prioritize supporting vulnerable populations by advocating for increased funding for mental health support and research in affected areas. Long-term solutions to address the mental health impacts of climate change and global warming should be pursued to mitigate future suicidality. Integrating climate considerations into local mental health programs and expanding psychological support services is crucial. By promoting emotional resilience and self-awareness, ECPs can contribute to building a more climate-resilient and mentally healthy society.

Projections of Temperature-Related Suicide under Climate Change Scenarios in Japan

BACKGROUND

The impact of climate change on mental health largely remains to be evaluated. Although growing evidence has reported a short-term association between suicide and temperature, future projections of temperature-attributable suicide have not been thoroughly examined.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to project the excess temperature-related suicide mortality in Japan under three climate change scenarios until the 2090s.

METHODS

Daily time series of mean temperature and the number of suicide deaths in 1973-2015 were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan. A two-stage time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the temperature-suicide association. We obtained the modeled daily temperature series using five general circulation models under three climate change scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We projected the excess temperature-related suicide mortality until 2099 for each scenario and evaluated the net relative changes compared with the 2010s.

RESULTS

During 1973-2015, there was a total of 1,049,592 suicides in Japan. Net increases in temperature-related excess suicide mortality were estimated under all scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was 1.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.6, 2.4] for the intermediate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 0.6% (95% eCI: 0.1, 1.6) for a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and 2.4% (95% eCI: 0.7, 3.9) for the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). The increases were greater the more extreme the scenarios were, with the highest increase under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5).

DISCUSSION

This study indicates that Japan may experience a net increase in excess temperature-related suicide mortality, especially under the intermediate and extreme scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mitigation policies. Further investigations of the future impacts of climate change on mental health including suicide are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11246.

Climate attribution of interpersonal violence: International evidence

Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening interpersonal violence, yet global evidence for related impacts and potential transmission mechanisms remains limited. We examine whether and how climate change, particularly climate extremes, affects interpersonal violence. Using the panel data of 140 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019, we find that hot and wet extremes precipitated increase in homicide rates globally. Economic level, inequality, and resources scarcity were important intermediaries through which climate extremes affected homicide, while the direct effects still dominated the total effects. We then reveal the heterogeneous effects of climate extremes, further suggesting that poor countries and regions with relatively small contributions to climate change were particularly sensitive to climate extremes. These findings elucidate a strong climate-violence link, helping explain implications of facilitating violence prevention and mitigating climate change.

Artificial intelligence extracts key insights from legal documents to predict intimate partner femicide

Legal documents serve as valuable repositories of information pertaining to crimes, encompassing not only legal aspects but also relevant details about criminal behaviors. To date and the best of our knowledge, no studies in the field examine legal documents for crime understanding using an Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach. The present study aims to fill this research gap by identifying relevant information available in legal documents for crime prediction using Artificial Intelligence (AI). This innovative approach will be applied to the specific crime of Intimate Partner Femicide (IPF). A total of 491 legal documents related to lethal and non-lethal violence by male-to-female intimate partners were extracted from the Vlex legal database. The information included in these documents was analyzed using AI algorithms belonging to Bayesian, functions-based, instance-based, tree-based, and rule-based classifiers. The findings demonstrate that specific information from legal documents, such as past criminal behaviors, imposed sanctions, characteristics of violence severity and frequency, as well as the environment and situation in which this crime occurs, enable the correct detection of more than three-quarters of both lethal and non-lethal violence within male-to-female intimate partner relationships. The obtained knowledge is crucial for professionals who have access to legal documents, as it can help identify high-risk IPF cases and shape strategies for preventing crime. While this study focuses on IPF, this innovative approach has the potential to be extended to other types of crimes, making it applicable and beneficial in a broader context.

Cause-specific accidental deaths and burdens related to ambient heat in a warming climate: A nationwide study of China

BACKGROUND

Future warming is projected to increase the heat-related mortality burden, especially for vulnerable populations. However, most previous studies focused on non-accidental morbidity or mortality, with far less research on heat-related accidental events.

METHODS

We collected individual accidental death records among all residents in Chinese mainland from June to August during 2013-2019. Accidental deaths were further divided into several subtypes by different causes. We used an individual-level, time-stratified, case-crossover study design to estimate the association between daily mean temperature and accidental deaths, and estimate its variation in seven geo-climatic zones, age (5-64, 65-74, ≥75), and sex (male, female). We then estimated the temperature-related excess accidental deaths under global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3℃.

FINDINGS

A total of 711,929 accidental death records were included in our study. We found that higher temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from the total accidental events and four main subtypes, including traffic, falls, drowning, and unintentional injuries. We also found that younger individuals (ages 5-64) and males faced a higher risk of heat-related mortality due to total accidents, traffic incidents, and drowning. For future climate scenarios, even under the 1.5℃ climate change scenario, 6,939 (95% eCI (empirical Confidence Interval): 6,818-7,067) excess accidental deaths per year are attributed to higher summertime daily temperature over mainland China, and the number of accidental deaths would increase by 16.71% and 33.59% under the 2℃ and 3℃ climate change scenarios, respectively. For residents living in southern coastal and northwest inland regions, the projected increase in accidental death is higher.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study confirms that higher summer temperatures are linked to an increased risk of accidental deaths. Younger age groups and males face a higher risk. This indicates that current estimates of the health effects of climate change might be underestimated, particularly for younger populations.

High ambient temperatures associations with children and young adult injury emergency department visits in NYC

Injury is a significant health burden for children and young adult and may be an increasing concern in a warming climate. Research reveals many impacts to children's health associated with hot weather and heatwave events, including a growing literature on the association between high ambient temperature and injury, which may vary by intent such as injury resulting from violence. However, little is known about how this association varies across different types of injury and subgroups of young people. We examined relationships between warm season ambient temperature and intentional and unintentional injury among children and young adults in New York City (NYC). Within a case-crossover design, our study observed injury-related emergency department (ED) visits from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System administrative dataset. Injuries were categorized as unintentional or intentional injuries during the warm season (May through September) in NYC from 2005 to 2011 among patients (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-25 years old (y.o.)). Conditional logistic regression models with distributed lag non-linear functions were used to model the cumulative odds ratio (OR) injury-related ED visit over 0-5 lag days. Analyses were stratified by age group and sex to understand how associations vary across young people of different age and sex. There were a total of 572 535 injury-related ED visits. The largest effect of elevated temperature (daily minimum 77°F vs 48°F) was for unintentional injury among 5-9 y.o. (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.23, 1.42) and for intentional injury among 20-25 y.o. (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.28, 1.85). Further stratified analyses revealed that the highest risk of unintentional injury was among 5-9 y.o. males and 20-25 y.o. males for intentional injury. Our results suggest that high ambient temperatures are associated with higher odds of unintentional and intentional injuries among children. This work adds to a growing body of literature demonstrating the adverse impacts of heat on children, and suggests the need for messaging to parents and children about adopting adaptive strategies to prevent injuries when it is hot outside.

Association of Ambient Temperature With the Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence Among Partnered Women in Low- and Middle-Income South Asian Countries

Importance

Intimate partner violence (IPV), including physical, sexual, and emotional violence, constitutes a critical public health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. While climate change could escalate violent events, data quantifying its possible association with IPV are scant.

Objective

To evaluate the association of ambient temperature with the prevalence of IPV among partnered women in low- and middle-income countries in South Asia, and to estimate the association of future climate warming with IPV.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from the Demographic and Health Survey and included 194 871 ever-partnered women aged 15 to 49 years from 3 South Asian countries (India, Nepal, and Pakistan). The study applied the mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression model to investigate the association of ambient temperature with IPV prevalence. The study further modeled the change in IPV prevalence under various future climate change scenarios. The data included in the analyses were collected from October 1, 2010, to April 30, 2018, and the current analyses were performed from January 2, 2022, to July 11, 2022.

Exposure

Annual ambient temperature exposure for each woman, estimated based on an atmospheric reanalysis model of the global climate.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The prevalence of IPV and its types (physical, sexual, and emotional violence) were assessed based on self-reported questionnaires from October 1, 2010, to April 30, 2018, and the changes in the prevalence with climate changes were estimated through the 2090s.

Results

The study included 194 871 ever-partnered women aged 15 to 49 years (mean [SD] age, 35.4 [7.6] years; overall IPV prevalence, 27.0%) from 3 South Asian countries. The prevalence of physical violence was highest (23.0%), followed by emotional (12.5%), and sexual violence (9.5%). The annual temperature ranges were mostly between 20 °C and 30 °C. A significant association was found between high ambient temperature and the prevalence of IPV against women, with each 1 °C increase in the annual mean temperature associated with a mean increase in IPV prevalence of 4.49% (95% CI, 4.20%-4.78%). According to the study's projections under the unlimited emissions scenarios (SSPs [shared socioeconomic pathways], as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] 5-8.5), IPV prevalence would increase by 21.0% by the end of the 21st century, while it would only moderately increase under increasingly stricter scenarios (SSP2-4.5 [9.8%] and SSP1-2.6 [5.8%]). In addition, the projected increases in the prevalence of physical (28.3%) and sexual (26.1%) violence were greater than that of emotional violence (8.9%). In the 2090s, India was estimated to experience the highest IPV prevalence increase (23.5%) among the 3 countries, compared with Nepal (14.8%) and Pakistan (5.9%).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional, multicountry study provides ample epidemiological evidence to support that high ambient temperature may be associated with the risk of IPV against women. These findings highlight the vulnerabilities and inequalities of women experiencing IPV in low- and middle-income countries in the context of global climate warming.

Predicting climate-change induced heat-related illness risk in Grand Canyon National Park visitors

BACKGROUND

The climate crisis is the greatest public health threat of the 21st century. Excessive heat is responsible for more deaths than any other extreme weather event, and the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events are increasing globally due to climate change. Exposure to excessive heat can result in heat related illnesses (HRIs) and long-term poor health outcomes. Physical exertion, sudden exposure to excessive heat, and the lack of physical or behavioral adaptation resources are all associated with greater HRI risk, which is expected to increase for visitors to Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) and other public lands as climate change worsens.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to understand 1) the relationship between weather and HRI in GCNP visitors, 2) how future HRI rates may change, and 3) how land management agencies can update risk mitigation strategies to match changing risk and better manage an increased HRI burden.

METHODS

We utilized previously published data on HRI in GCNP visitors, and records of daily visitation, temperatures, and maximum and minimum daily humidity from the same study period to develop a model estimate for HRI risk. We then used future climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multi-model dataset to model future HRI risk under different climate scenarios.

RESULTS

The incidence of HRI was significantly associated with maximum daily temperature and minimum relative humidity, and was more common in the shoulder season months. We estimated that HRI will increase 29%-137% over 2004-2009 levels through 2100, assuming no change in visitation.

DISCUSSION

Climate change will continue to increase HRI risk for GCNP visitors and poses risks to public land managers' mission to provide for safe recreation experiences for the benefit of this and future generations in places like GCNP. Excessive risk during the shoulder season months presents an opportunity to increase preventative search and rescue and education efforts to mitigate increased risk.

A Systematic Review on the Impact of Seasonality on Severe Mental Illness Admissions: Does Seasonal Variation Affect Coercion?

Coercion in psychiatry is associated mainly with involuntary admissions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations between hospital admissions of patients suffering from affective and schizophrenic disorders and seasonality. A systematic literature search using PubMed, Scopus and Google Scholar was conducted, including studies with affective and schizophrenia disorder admissions, published from October 1992 to August 2020. A total of 31 studies were included in the review. Four broad severe mental illness admission categories were identified regarding seasonality: affective disorders, schizophrenia disorders, involuntary admission affective disorders and involuntary admission schizophrenia disorders. There was clear and strong evidence for spring and summer peaks for severe mental illness admissions; data provided for age, gender and involuntary admissions was limited. Seasonality may have a significant effect on the onset and exacerbation of psychopathology of severe mental illness and should be considered as a risk factor in psychiatric admissions, violence and the risk of mental health coercion. A better understanding of the impact of seasonality on severe mental illness will help professionals to provide the best practices in mental health services in order to reduce and prevent psychiatric hospitalizations (especially involuntary admissions) resulting in further coercive measures.

Ambient temperature and air pollution associations with suicide and homicide mortality in California: A statewide case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Higher ambient temperature and air pollution may contribute to increased risk of behaviors harmful to oneself or to others; however, quantitative evidence is limited. We examined the relationship of deaths due to suicide and homicide with temperature and air pollution in California-a state prone to high levels of both exposures.

METHOD

California death certificates from 2014 to 2019 were used to identify deaths due to suicide and homicide. Residential data for decedents were used to assign exposure to daily temperature (maximum[Tmax], minimum[Tmin]) and daily average air pollution concentrations (particulate matter <10 μm[PM10] and < 2.5 μm[PM2.5], nitrogen dioxide[NO2], ozone[O3]). Tmin served as a surrogate for nighttime temperature. A time-stratified case-crossover study design using conditional logistic regression was used to assess the effects of daily exposure to temperature and air pollutants on suicide and homicide mortality, adjusting for relative humidity. Effect modification by sex and age was assessed.

RESULTS

We observed 24,387 deaths due to suicide and 10,767 deaths due to homicide. We found a monotonic temperature association for both outcomes. A 5 °C increase in Tmax at lag-2 and Tmin at lag-0 was associated with 3.1 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 %-5.2 %) and 3.8 % (95%CI: 0.9 %-6.8 %) increased odds of death due to suicide, respectively. The increased odds of homicide mortality per 5 °C increase in Tmax at lag-0 and Tmin at lag-1 were 4.9 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-8.1 %) and 6.2 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-11.0 %), respectively. No air pollutant associations were statistically significant. Temperature associations were robust after adjustment for PM2.5. Some temperature effects were larger among women for suicide and men for homicide mortality, and among those over age 65 years for both outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Risk of suicide and homicide mortality increases with increasing daily ambient temperatures. Findings have public health relevance given anticipated increases in temperatures due to global climate change.

Temperature and mental health-related emergency department and hospital encounters among children, adolescents and young adults

AIMS

We examine the association between high ambient temperature and acute mental health-related healthcare encounters in New York City for children, adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

This case-crossover study included emergency department (ED) visits and hospital encounters with a primary diagnosis of any mental health disorder during warm-season months (June-August) in New York City from 2005 to 2011 from patients of three age groups (6-11, 12-17 and 18-25 years). Using a distributed lag non-linear model over 0-5 lag days, by fitting a conditional logistic regression for each age group, we calculated the cumulative odds ratios of mental health encounters associated with an elevated temperature. Analyses were stratified by race/ethnicity, payment source and mental health categories to elucidate vulnerable subpopulations.

RESULTS

In New York City, there were 82,982 mental health-related encounters for young people aged 6 to 25 years during our study period months. Elevated temperature days were associated with higher risk of mental health-related ED and hospital encounters for the 6- to 11-year-olds (odds ratio [OR]: 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.46), for the 12- to 17-year-olds (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.09-1.25) and for the 18- to 25-year-olds (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Children with reaction disorders, adolescents with anxiety and bipolar disorders, young adults with psychosis and reaction disorders and Black and non-Hispanic children and adolescents showed vulnerability to elevated temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that elevated ambient temperatures were associated with acute mental health ED or hospital encounters across childhood, adolescence and young adulthood.

The Association between Physical Environment and Externalising Problems in Typically Developing and Neurodiverse Children and Young People: A Narrative Review

The physical environment is of critical importance to child development. Understanding how exposure to physical environmental domains such as greenspace, urbanicity, air pollution or noise affects aggressive behaviours in typical and neurodiverse children is of particular importance given the significant long-term impact of those problems. In this narrative review, we investigated the evidence for domains of the physical environment that may ameliorate or contribute to the display of aggressive behaviours. We have considered a broad range of study designs that include typically developing and neurodiverse children and young people aged 0-18 years. We used the GRADE system to appraise the evidence. Searches were performed in eight databases in July 2020 and updated in June 2022. Additional articles were further identified by hand-searching reference lists of included papers. The protocol for the review was preregistered with PROSPERO. Results: We retrieved 7174 studies of which 67 are included in this review. The studies reported on green space, environmental noise and music, air pollution, meteorological effects, spatial density, urban or rural setting, and interior home elements (e.g., damp/sensory aspects/colour). They all used well validated parent and child reported measures of aggressive behaviour. Most of the studies were rated as having low or unclear risk of bias. As expected, noise, air pollution, urbanicity, spatial density, colour and humidity appeared to increase the display of aggressive behaviours. There was a dearth of studies on the role of the physical environment in neurodiverse children. The studies were heterogeneous and measured a range of aggressive behaviours from symptoms to full syndromes. Greenspace exposure was the most common domain studied but certainty of evidence for the association between environmental exposures and aggression problems in the child or young person was low across all domains. We found a large knowledge gap in the literature concerning neurodiverse children, which suggests that future studies should focus on these children, who are also more likely to experience adverse early life experiences including living in more deprived environments as well as being highly vulnerable to the onset of mental ill health. Such research should also aim to dis-aggregate the underlying aetiological mechanisms for environmental influences on aggression, the results of which may point to pathways for public health interventions and policy development to address inequities that can be relevant to ill health in neurodiverse young people.

High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago

Urban crime (UC) seriously affects the security and stability of the communities and society. However, the effects of external temperatures on the risk of UC are still confusing. We quantitatively estimated the effects of high and low temperatures on UC in Chicago. After controlling for the confounding factors, we found that high temperature has a positive promoting effect on UC, for non-domestic crime, the effect occurs at lag day 0 with a maximum risk of 1.40 (95%CI, 1.34-1.46) compared to a risk of 1 at temperature of -12.3 °C, and decreased as the lag day increased. The effect of low temperature is not significant for UC. Heat waves above the 99th percentile with a duration of 4.5-5.5 days exert a significant positive impact on non-domestic crime of UC. Our findings confirm the adverse promotion effect of high temperature on UC risk, and effective individual behavior guidance and administrative intervention are of great significance for reducing the risk of UC under specific high temperature environment.

Changes in ambulance departures for assault calls during COVID-19 pandemic restrictions

Restrictions related to COVID-19 changed the daily behavior of people, including the expression of violence. Although an increased incidence of violent behavior, especially domestic violence, was expected during the pandemic, retrospective analyses have yielded mixed results. Records of ambulance departures to address injuries caused by assaults in the Pilsen region, Czech Republic, during the restrictive measures during the national state of emergency were compared to data from 3 previous years using general linear models. The number and severity of assaults were analyzed for the whole sample and separately for patients of either sex, for residential or nonresidential locations, and for domestic violence. Controlling for the seasonal effects, the number of assaults decreased by 39% during the pandemic restrictions compared to the 3 previous years. No difference was found between the effects of restrictions on assaults resulting in an injury of a male or female patient. The decrease was specifically pronounced in the sample of assaults in nonresidential locations, while no effect of restrictions was observed in assaults in residential locations and domestic assaults. Pandemic restrictions were associated with a decreased incidence of violent assaults that required ambulance services. Although the incidence decreased especially in those assaulted outside of their homes, we found no support for an increase in domestic violence or violence against women. Pandemic restrictions may have served as a protective rather than a risk factor for assaults severe enough to warrant a call for ambulance services.

Investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime incidents number in different cities

The COVID-19 pandemic is strongly affecting many aspects of human life and society around the world. To investigate whether this pandemic also influences crime, the differences in crime incidents numbers before and during the pandemic in four large cities (namely Washington DC, Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles) are investigated. Moreover, the Granger causal relationships between crime incident numbers and new cases of COVID-19 are also examined. Based on that, new cases of COVID-19 with significant Granger causal correlations are used to improve the crime prediction performance. The results show that crime is generally impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it varies in different cities and with different crime types. Most types of crimes have seen fewer incidents numbers during the pandemic than before. Several Granger causal correlations are found between the COVID-19 cases and crime incidents in these cities. More specifically, crime incidents numbers of theft in Washington DC, Chicago and New York City, fraud in Washington DC and Los Angeles, assault in Chicago and New York City, and robbery in Los Angeles and New York City, are significantly Granger caused by the new case of COVID-19. These results may be partially explained by the Routine Activity theory and Opportunity theory that people may prefer to stay at home to avoid being infected with COVID-19 during the pandemic, giving fewer chances for crimes. In addition, involving new cases of COVID-19 as a variable can slightly improve the performance of crime prediction in terms of some specific types of crime. This study is expected to obtain deeper insights into the relationships between the pandemic and crime in different cities, and to provide new attempts for crime prediction during the pandemic.

The role of parenthood in worry about overheating in homes in the UK and the US and implications for energy use: An online survey study

Climate change brings an increase in temperatures and a higher frequency of heatwaves. Both have been linked to a rise in suicide rates and violent crime on a population level. However, little is known about the link between mental health and ambient temperatures on an individual level and for particular subgroups. Overheating poses health risks to children and disturbs sleep; leading to the expectation that parents are more worried about their homes getting too hot than non-parents. Two online survey studies (N = 1000 each) were conducted in the UK and the US to understand to what extent parents and an age-matched comparison group without children are worried about overheating and how they differ in their mitigation actions. Findings did not support the main hypotheses around greater overheating worry amongst parents in general, mothers or those with very young children. However, parents indicated a greater likelihood to upgrade or install air-conditioning (US) and to get electric fans (UK). Parents in the UK indicated using more mitigation options to cope with overheating than non-parents. Parents in the US, whilst not reporting doing more actions, were more likely to use air-conditioning to deal with overheating than non-parents. Finally, those parents who mentioned health impacts on children as a reason for worry about overheating, were more concerned about overheating than parents who had other reasons than children's health as a reason for being concerned about overheating. In summary, parental status might have implications for cooling energy use and concern for children's health might increase overheating worry; however, many open questions remain.

Climate Change and Mental Health: A Review of Empirical Evidence, Mechanisms and Implications

Anthropogenic climate change is an existential threat whose influences continue to increase in severity. It is pivotal to understand the implications of climate change and their effects on mental health. This integrative review aims to summarize the relevant evidence examining the harm climate change may have on mental health, suggest potential mechanisms and discuss implications. Empirical evidence has begun to indicate that negative mental health outcomes are a relevant and notable consequence of climate change. Specifically, these negative outcomes range from increased rates of psychiatric diagnoses such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder to higher measures of suicide, aggression and crime. Potential mechanisms are thought to include neuroinflammatory responses to stress, maladaptive serotonergic receptors and detrimental effects on one's own physical health, as well as the community wellbeing. While climate change and mental health are salient areas of research, the evidence examining an association is limited. Therefore, further work should be conducted to delineate exact pathways of action to explain the mediators and mechanisms of the interaction between climate change and mental health.

Association of Daily Temperature With Suicide Mortality: A Comparison With Other Causes of Death and Characterization of Possible Attenuation Across 5 Decades

Suicide is one of the leading causes of death in young adults in many Western countries. We examined the short-term association of temperature with cause-specific mortality, comparing suicide with other causes of death and describing possible attenuation of associations with temperature across decades. We considered all deaths that occurred in France between 1968 and 2016. For each cause of death, we conducted a 2-stage meta-analysis of associations with daily temperature. We stratified the association across time periods. A total of 502,017 deaths by suicide were recorded over 49 years. Temperature was monotonically associated with suicide mortality. The strongest association was found at lag 0 days. The relative risk of suicide mortality at the 99th (compared with the 1st) temperature percentile was 1.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.46, 1.63). Among all causes of death, suicide was the only cause displaying a monotonic trend with temperature and ranked seventh for heat-related mortality; 2 other causes of death implying the nervous system ranked third and fourth. Associations with temperature attenuated between the 1968-1984 and 1985-2000 periods for all-cause mortality and suicide mortality, without clear further attenuation in the 2001-2016 period. The robust short-term monotonic association between temperature and suicide risk could be considered in heat effects- and suicide-related prevention campaigns.

Future injury mortality burden attributable to compound hot extremes will significantly increase in China

BACKGROUND

As climate change, compound hot extremes (CHEs), daytime and nighttime persistent hot extremes, are projected to become much more frequent and intense, which may pose a serious threat to human health. However, evidence on the impact of CHEs on injury is rare.

METHODS

We collected injury death data and daily meteorological data from six Chinese provinces during 2013-2018. A time-stratified case-crossover design with two-stage analytic approach was applied to assess the associations of CHEs with injury mortality by intention, mechanism, age and gender. Using the projected daily temperatures of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), we projected the frequency of CHEs and CHEs-attributable mortality burden of injury under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.

RESULTS

CHEs were significantly associated with increased injury mortality risk (RR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.09-1.19), with strong effects on unintentional injuries (RR = 1.16, 95%CI:1.11,1.22) and intentional injuries (RR = 1.11, 95%CI:0.99,1.25). Female (RR = 1.21,95%CI: 1.13-1.29) and the elderly (RR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.22-1.39) were more susceptible to CHEs. Both the frequency and injury mortality burden of CHEs showed a steep rising trend under RCP8.5 scenario, with a 7.37-fold and 8.22-fold increase respectively, by the end of the century, especially in southern, eastern, central and northwestern China.

CONCLUSION

CHEs were associated with increased injury mortality risk, and the CHEs-attributable injury mortality burden was projected to aggravate substantially in the future as global warming. It is urgent to develop targeted adaptation policies to alleviate the health burden of CHEs.

The Effects of Daily Temperature on Crime Events in Urban Hanoi, Vietnam Using Seven Years of Data (2013-2019)

The effects of temperature on behavior change and mental health have previously been explored, but the association between temperature and crime is less well understood, especially in developing countries. Single-city-level data were used to evaluate the association between the short-term effects of temperature on crime events in urban Hanoi, Vietnam. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to investigate the linear effects and distributed lag non-linear models to investigate the non-linear association between daily temperature and daily crime events from 2013 to 2019. There were 3884 crime events, including 1083 violent crimes and 2801 non-violent crimes during the 7-year study period. For both linear and non-linear effects, there were positive associations between an increase in daily temperature and crime, and the greatest effects were observed on the first day of exposure (lag 0). For linear effects, we estimated that each 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.9% (95%CI: 0.2; 20.5), 6.8% (95%CI: 0.6; 13.5), and 7.5% (95%CI: 2.3; 13.2) increase in the risk of violent, non-violent, and total crime, respectively. For non-linear effects, however, the crime risk plateaued at 30 °C and decreased at higher exposures, which presented an inverted U-shape response with a large statistical uncertainty.

Thermal demands and its interactions with environmental factors account for national-level variation in aggression

Literature shows that psychological phenomena, including values (e.g., individualism vs. collectivism), personality, and behaviors (e.g., prosocial and aggressive behavior), are geographically clustered. The effects of temperature on interpersonal and intergroup aggression have been studied by many social psychologists. To date the interactions between temperature and other geographical factors have not been addressed. This study is aiming to examine the effects of thermal demands and the moderating effects of natural geographical factors on aggressive behavior at national level. Data for 156 societies was obtained from publicly available databases. Consistent with the life-history theory, results of this study showed that aggressive behavior has a positive relationship with heat demands, and a negative relationship with cold demands. Aggressive behavior is also positively correlated with sunlight and altitude, and negatively correlated with coastline vicinity. Forest, coastline vicinity, and rainfall moderated the effect of thermal demands on aggressive behavior. In societies with more forests, with more rainfall, and closer to coastline, the negative effects of cold demands on aggressive behavior are stronger.

Identifying joint impacts of sun radiation, temperature, humidity, and rain duration on triggering mental disorders using a high-resolution weather monitoring system

BACKGROUND

Mental disorders (MDs) are behavioral or mental patterns that cause significant distress or impairment of personal functioning. Previously, temperature has been linked to MDs, but most studies suffered from exposure misclassification due to limited monitoring sites. We aimed to assess whether multiple meteorological factors could jointly trigger MD-related emergency department (ED) visits in warm season, using a highly dense weather monitoring system.

METHODS

We conducted a time-stratified, case-crossover study. MDs-related ED visits (primary diagnosis) from May-October 2017-2018 were obtained from New York State (NYS) discharge database. We obtained solar radiation (SR), relative humidity (RH), temperature, heat index (HI), and rainfall from Mesonet, a real-time monitoring system spaced about 17 miles (126 stations) across NYS. We used conditional logistic regression to assess the weather-MD associations.

RESULTS

For each interquartile range (IQR) increase, both SR (excess risk (ER): 4.9%, 95% CI: 3.2-6.7%) and RH (ER: 4.0%, 95% CI: 2.6-5.4%) showed the largest risk for MD-related ED visits at lag 0-9 days. While temperature presented a short-term risk (highest ER at lag 0-2 days: 3.7%, 95% CI: 2.5-4.9%), HI increased risk over a two-week period (ER range: 3.7-4.5%), and rainfall hours showed an inverse association with MDs (ER: -0.5%, 95% CI: 0.9-(-0.1)%). Additionally, we observed stronger association of SR, RH, temperature, and HI in September and October. Combination of high SR, RH, and temperature displayed the largest increase in MDs (ER: 7.49%, 95% CI: 3.95-11.15%). The weather-MD association was stronger for psychoactive substance usage, mood disorders, adult behavior disorders, males, Hispanics, African Americans, individuals aged 46-65, or Medicare patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Hot and humid weather, especially the joint effect of high sun radiation, temperature and relative humidity showed the highest risk of MD diseases. We found stronger weather-MD associations in summer transitional months, males, and minority groups. These findings also need further confirmation.

Staying home saves lives, really!

When coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was spreading worldwide, many national and local governments started to impose socially restrictive measures to limit the spread of the virus. Such quarantine measures in different cities worldwide have brought a new trend in public safety improvement and crime reduction. Using daily crime reports in the U.S., this paper evaluates the immediate unintended effects of shelter-in-place orders on different crime categories using fine-grained spatial units (i.e., neighborhoods) rather than entire cities, states, or countries. Results for San Francisco suggest an immediate drop of between 10 and 20% points in the total number of crimes after one month from the introduction of the restrictions. In particular, we show that while theft, homicide, and traffic accidents have fallen sharply, domestic violence incidents and weapon possession offences were not affected by the lockdown. The results are robust to the inclusion of spatial and temporal dependence.

Violent behavior and the COVID-19 lockdowns: a nationwide register-based study

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim was to test the hypothesis that physical interpersonal violence is decreased during the lockdown period in comparison with comparable control periods. The secondary aims were to explore the effects of gender and alcohol consumption on the violence during the lockdown.

METHODS

Nationwide records of hospitalizations secondary to an assault were analyzed using quasipoisson regression. Assault rates in two lockdown periods, defined as a national emergency state, were compared to baseline data between 2017 and 2020, controlling for seasonal fluctuations and pandemic-related effects other than lockdown. To validate the findings on independent data, differences between lockdown and baseline in Police records of violent criminality between 2017 and 2021 were examined using one-way ANOVA.

RESULTS

The rates of hospitalizations secondary to an assault decreased substantially during lockdowns (IRR = .43; P < .001) and the duration of lockdown did not affect assault rates (P = .07). The decrease in assault rates was more pronounced in males than females (IRR = .77; P < .05) and was weakened in patients with history of alcohol abuse (IRR = 1.83; P < .001). Violent crime rate decreased by 19% during the lockdowns compared to prepandemic baseline (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

We found that physical interpersonal violence decreased during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. The reduction is significantly greater in males. Emerging evidence suggests an increased risk of alcohol use and intoxication during the lockdowns. Violent crime rate decreased during the lockdown.

The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing: A Narrative Review of Current Evidence, and its Implications

Converging global evidence highlights the dire consequences of climate change for human mental health and wellbeing. This paper summarises literature across relevant disciplines to provide a comprehensive narrative review of the multiple pathways through which climate change interacts with mental health and wellbeing. Climate change acts as a risk amplifier by disrupting the conditions known to support good mental health, including socioeconomic, cultural and environmental conditions, and living and working conditions. The disruptive influence of rising global temperatures and extreme weather events, such as experiencing a heatwave or water insecurity, compounds existing stressors experienced by individuals and communities. This has deleterious effects on people's mental health and is particularly acute for those groups already disadvantaged within and across countries. Awareness and experiences of escalating climate threats and climate inaction can generate understandable psychological distress; though strong emotional responses can also motivate climate action. We highlight opportunities to support individuals and communities to cope with and act on climate change. Consideration of the multiple and interconnected pathways of climate impacts and their influence on mental health determinants must inform evidence-based interventions. Appropriate action that centres climate justice can reduce the current and future mental health burden, while simultaneously improving the conditions that nurture wellbeing and equality. The presented evidence adds further weight to the need for decisive climate action by decision makers across all scales.

Violence in the Big Apple throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: A borough-specific analysis

In early 2020, the world faced a rapid, life-changing, public health crisis in the form of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic and its associated social-distancing measures collided with a period of social unrest following the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police and persisted for nearly two years following its emergence. The current study adds to existing research by examining the effect of these events on the incidence of violence (shootings and assaults) in New York City (NYC) over a longer period of time, both in the city as a whole and at the borough-level. To accomplish this, the current study draws from publicly available data using series of analytical techniques to account for underlying trends, seasonality, and temperature while also estimating borough-specific effects. Results indicate that the prevalence of COVID-19 cases, associated social-distancing mandates, and the period of social unrest following Floyd's murder were associated with violence in NYC. Further, findings suggest while a number of the factors explored had consistent effects across each of NYC's five boroughs there was some evidence of heterogeneity. The implications for future research on the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed.

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated increases in experiences of assault violence among black men with low socioeconomic status living in Louisiana

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had mental health, social, and economic implications among communities with high levels of social disadvantage; this may have impacted community violence rates. The objective of this study was to characterize overall trends in assault and social disadvantage of patients experiencing assault before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

All trauma activations at a level one trauma center serving the entire southeast Louisiana region were included during March–August pre-COVID (2018–2019) and during COVID (2020). ICD-10 E-codes were used to identify trauma intent (assault vs. other). Assaults in this context are defined as physical injuries caused by an act of violence wherein the perpetrator was suspected or confirmed to have intended harm, injury, or death to the victim. Social disadvantage was assessed using the Area Deprivation Index (ADI). Change in the monthly rate of assault-trauma activations was assessed using negative binomial regression with adjustment for race, gender, and injury intent. The study was reviewed and approved by the Louisiana State University Health Sciences Institutional Review Board.

Results

A total of 4,233 trauma activations were included. The majority of activations occurred among men. Assaults increased from 27.5% of all activations pre-Covid to 35.6% during the pandemic. Penetrating trauma similarly increased from 29.5% to 35.7% of all activations. Negative binomial regression demonstrated that in addition to this increase in proportion of assaults relative to all activations, the monthly assault rate also increased by 20% during the pandemic. These increases were driven primarily by increased assaults among Black men. ADI rank did not change between study periods.

Conclusions

Health disparities in violence worsened during the pandemic: increased cases of assault occurred disproportionately among Black men, and assaults persisted in occurring primarily among low-ADI communities where burden had been high pre-pandemic. There is a critical need for resources and support to Black men, to mitigate violence and improve racial heath equity.

Effects of Air Pollution on Assaults: Findings from South Korea

This study investigates the effects of concentration of air pollution on assault rates for 204 police districts of South Korea from 2001 to 2018. A series of panel spatial Durbin models for the concentration of ozone, fine dust, and nitrogen dioxide—three key air pollutants of the country—identify the significant impacts of air pollution on assault rates that vary from each other. Ozone is expected to induce more assaults both locally and regionally. Fine dust decreases assault rates of an area and also in neighboring areas. Nitrogen dioxide yields positive effects on the surrounding areas’ assault rates but not in area of pollution itself. Findings of this study suggest the need to incorporate active measures on air pollution and violent crime at both city and inter-city levels. They also propose the active sharing of information on air pollution and crime between cities and regions as a collaborative response.

Homicide, Inequality, and Climate: Untangling the Relationships

Researchers debate the causal connections between homicide, inequality, and temperature. This study examines these relationships globally based on country-level data. A new measure of inequality is introduced that provides a more granular measure of inequality patterns than commonly used metrics. The approach allows estimation of risk sensitive decision-making that helps to explain how class impacts violence under different climate conditions. The results indicate that homicide rates are higher when poorer segments of populations are disproportionately influenced by temperature, middle class segments are influenced by inequality, and the wealthy are influenced by middle and impoverished class dynamics.

Association between ambient temperature and intentional injuries: A case-crossover analysis using ambulance transport records in Japan

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies based on mortality and crime data have indicated that short-term exposure to higher temperature increases the risk of suicide and violent crimes. However, there are few studies on non-fatal intentional injury, especially on non-fatal self-harm which is much more common than suicide.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to clarify how short-term exposure to temperature is associated with emergency ambulance transport caused by intentional injuries including acts of self-harm and assault.

METHOD

We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design using a conditional quasi-Poisson regression model for each of the 46 prefectures. All temperatures were converted to percentile value for each prefecture, to account for the varied climate across Japan. A Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model was used to explore the temperature percentile and lag pattern. The prefecture-specific results were combined using a meta-analysis with the random effects model.

RESULT

Between 2012 and 2015, the number of acts of self-harm and assault across all 46 prefectures totaled 151,801 and 95,861, respectively. We found that as the temperature increased, the relative risk (RRs) for both self-harm and assault behaviors increased in a nearly linear manner. The pooled relative risk at the 99th percentile temperature for self-harm behavior was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.15) compared with the risk at the 1st percentile temperature, and that for assault was 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.16) at lag 0. The RRs were highest at lag0 and less than 1 at lag7-20.

CONCLUSION

The present study found that short-term exposure to higher temperature promotes the risk of emergency ambulance transport due to acts of self-harm and assault. The lag pattern indicates a possible "displacement" effect. These results suggest that exposure to high temperatures may potentially function as a trigger for intentional injuries.

The effect of aggression II: Acclimation to a high ambient temperature reduces territorial aggression in male striped hamsters (Cricetulus barabensis)

Thyroid hormones have a profound influence on development, cellular differentiation and metabolism, and are also suspected of playing a role in aggression. We measured territorial aggression, body temperature (T_b) and serum thyroid hormones levels of male striped hamsters (Cricetulus barabensis) acclimated to either cold (5 °C), cool (21 °C) or hot (34 °C) ambient temperatures. The effects of methimazole on territorial aggression, food intake, metabolic rate and serum thyroid hormone levels, were also examined. Territorial aggression was significantly lower in male hamsters acclimated to the hot temperature compared to those acclimated to the cool or cold temperatures. T_b significantly increased during aggressive territorial interactions with intruders but did not significantly differ among the three temperature treatments. Serum T₃, T₄ and cortisol levels of hamsters acclimated to 34 °C were significantly lower than those acclimated to 21 °C. In addition to significantly reducing territorial aggression, treatment with methimazole also significantly reduced serum T₃ and T₄ levels, T_b and metabolic rate. These results suggest that exposure to high temperatures reduces the capacity of hamsters to dissipate heat causing them to lower their metabolic rate, which, in turn, causes them to reduce territorial aggression to prevent hyperthermia. The lower metabolic rate mediated by down-regulated thyroid hormones inhibits territorial aggression and could thereby determine the outcome of territorial conflicts.

Association between ambient temperature and injury by intentions and mechanisms: A case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model

Although injury is a leading cause of death worldwide, the association between ambient temperature and injury has received little research attention compared to the association of temperature with mortality and morbidity from non-external causes. With current climate change and increases in weather extremes, assessing the association between temperature and injury is important for determining public health priorities. Therefore, the present study examined the association between ambient temperature and injury risk with a focus on the intentions and mechanisms of injury. Using the national emergency database, we identified a total of 703,503 injured patients who had visited emergency departments in Seoul, South Korea from 2008 to 2016. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study using a conditional Poisson regression model, and applied a distributed lag nonlinear model to explore possible nonlinear and delayed effects of daily mean temperature on injury risk. Injury risk was significantly associated with ambient temperature, and temperature-injury association curves markedly differed with respect to intentions and mechanisms of injury. Although unintentional injuries increased significantly at both high and low temperatures, intentional injuries - including self-harm and assault - significantly increased only at high temperatures. The mechanism-specific analyses showed that injuries caused by traffic accidents and burns significantly increased at both high and low temperatures. However, injuries caused by all other mechanisms (i.e., fall, blunt object, machinery, penetration, and poisoning) significantly increased only at high temperatures, while injury due to slipping increased at low temperatures. Our study provides evidence that ambient temperature is associated with risk of injury, and this association differs depending on the intentions and mechanisms of injury. Overall, our findings help foster a more comprehensive understanding of the association between temperature and injury that can be used to establish appropriate public health policies and targeted interventions.

Hot under the collar: A 14-year association between temperature and violent behavior across 436 U.S. counties

OBJECTIVES

Violent behavior is influenced by individual and societal characteristics, but the role of environmental factors is less understood. Our aims were to use national-level data to identify the association between criminal behavior and short-term temperature conditions, including the departure of daily temperatures from normal conditions.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-stage hierarchical time-series model across 436 U.S. counties and 14-years representing 100.4 million people to investigate the association between daily mean temperature and daily mean temperatures departing from normal conditions with violent and non-violent crime counts. First-stage comparisons were made within counties to control for population and geographic heterogeneities, while a second stage combined estimates. We evaluated differences in risk based on county sociodemographic characteristics and estimated non-linear exposure-response relationships.

RESULTS

We observed a total of 9.0 million violent crimes and 20.9 million non-violent property crimes between 2000 through 2013. We estimated that each 10 °C increase in daily temperature or daily departure from long-term normal temperatures were associated with 11.92% (95% PI: 11.57, 12.27) and 10.37% (95% PI: 10.05, 10.69) increase in the risk of violent crime, respectively. Similar, but lower in magnitude trends, were observed for property crime risks. We found that crime risk plateaus and decreases at high daily temperatures, but for temperatures departing from normal, the association with crime increased linearly. Seasonal variations showed that anomalously warm temperatures days during cool months had the greatest risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed an association between higher temperatures and high departure from normal temperatures with both violent and non-violent crime risk, regardless of community-type. However, our findings on seasonal and daily trends suggest that daily mean temperature may impact crime by affecting routine activities and behavior, as opposed to a temperature-aggression relationship. These results may advance public response and planning to prevent violent behavior.

Heat and fraud: evaluating how room temperature influences fraud likelihood

Despite the considerable amount of research devoted to understanding fraud, few studies have examined how the physical environment can influence the likelihood of committing fraud. One recent study found a link between room brightness and occurrence of human fraud behaviors. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate how temperature may affect fraud. Based on a power analysis using the effect size observed in a pilot study, we recruited 105 participants and randomly divided them into three temperature groups (warm, medium, and cool). We then counted fraud behaviors in each group and tested for potential significant differences with a Kruskal–Wallis test. Additionally, we used a correlation analysis to determine whether the perceived temperature affected fraud. As a result, regardless of participants’ subjective sensory experience or their physical environment, we did not find that temperature-related factors influence the incidence of fraud. We discussed the potential reason for the results and suggested directions for future research.

The Influence of Extreme Heat on Police and Fire Department Services in 23 U.S. Cities

Recent research suggests that extreme heat affects the demand for emergency services, including police and fire department incidents. Yet there is limited understanding of impacts across U.S. cities, with varying population sizes, and between different climates. This study sought to examine the daily utilization of police and fire department services, during hot days in 23 U.S. cities representing six climate zones using relative risk (RR) and time series analyses of daily police and fire department incidents. The warm season analyses utilized three temperature metrics: daily maximum temperature (TMAX), daily maximum heat index (HIMAX), and the preceding daily minimum temperature (TMIN). Across these cities, the RR of police department incidents on days where TMAX was at or above the 95th percentile significantly increased within a range from 3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.3%, 6.3%) to 57% (95% CI: 24.5%, 89.7%), compared with a nonhot day. At the same temperature thresholds, the RR of fire department dispatches increased from 6% (95% CI: 3.0%, 8.6%) to 18% (95% CI: 15.2%, 21.6%). These results remained consistent across temperature metrics and consecutive days of extreme heat. The estimated effects of daily maximum temperature, daily maximum heat index, and daily minimum temperature were nonlinear for police and fire department incidents across all cities. These findings inform climate change adaptation strategies, preparing budgets and personnel for emergency agencies to ensure resilience as periods of extreme heat increase in frequency, severity, and duration.

Ambient temperature and intentional homicide: A multi-city case-crossover study in the US

BACKGROUND

There has been an increasing interest in the association between ambient temperature and violence and crime, in the context of global warming. We aimed to evaluate the association between daily ambient temperature and intentional homicide-a proxy for overall inter-personal violence.

METHODS

We collected daily weather and crime data from 9 large US cities (Chicago, Detroit, Fort Worth, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Louisville, New York, Tucson and Virginia Beach) from 2007 to 2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used. The associations were quantified by conditional logistic regression with distributed lag models, adjusting for relative humidity, precipitation and effects of public holidays. City-specific odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the attributable fractions in each city.

RESULTS

Based on 19,523 intentional homicide cases, we found a linear temperature-homicide association. Every 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 9.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.3-15.0%] and 8.8% (95% CI: 1.5-16.6%) increase in intentional homicide over lag 0-7 days in Chicago and New York, respectively. The association was not statistically significant in the other seven cities and seemed to be stronger for cases that happened during the hot season, at night (18:00-06:00) and on the street. During the study period, 8.7% (95%CI: 4.3-12.7%) and 7.1% (95% CI: 1.4-12.0%) intentional homicide cases could be attributed to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to 488 and 316 excess cases in Chicago and New York, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the interpersonal violence might increase with temperature in some US cities. We also provide some insights into the mechanisms and targeted prevention strategies for heat-related violence.

[Climate impact on mental health]

While many studies have looked into the consequences of climate change on physical health, its impact on mental health is still relatively unknown. Climate-related disasters lead to psychotrauma in populations, as well as sleeping disorders, anxiety and depression. Rising temperatures increase the level of agression and violence. Climate migration also leads to psychological disorders in migrants. Mental health professionals must be trained in these pathologies which are set to become more common over the decades to come.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on cities livability in China

As global warming worsens, climatic conditions in many regions are undergoing profound change, which could influence certain industries, such as agriculture and transportation, and affect the livability of cities. In this study, cities statistics and meteorological station data of the past decade in China were used to analyze the effect of climate change on cities livability. The livability of 288 Chinese cities during 2006-2016 was assessed using an analytic hierarchy process method. Results showed the mean cities livability index in China has improved about 12% throughout the past decade. Moreover, the Moran's I statistic and local indicators of spatial association revealed that the distribution of cities livability reflects a trend of gradual spatial agglomeration. In addition, geostatistical analysis was used to evaluate the impact of extreme weather events on cities livability. It was established that heatwaves and extreme precipitation events have significant impact on the livability of cities in southern China, whereas freezing weather drives the change of urban livability in northern areas. Combinations of different extreme weather conditions will have greater impact on urban livability. Based on mobile phone user data, the relationship between livability change and climate change in Chinese cities was elucidated to provide reference for urban environmental management.

The Influence of Heat on Daily Police, Medical, and Fire Dispatches in Boston, Massachusetts: Relative Risk and Time-Series Analyses

Objectives. To examine the impact of extreme heat on emergency services in Boston, MA.Methods. We conducted relative risk and time series analyses of 911 dispatches of the Boston Police Department (BPD), Boston Emergency Medical Services (BEMS), and Boston Fire Department (BFD) from November 2010 to April 2014 to assess the impact of extreme heat on emergency services.Results. During the warm season, there were 2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0%, 5%) more BPD dispatches, 9% (95% CI = 7%, 12%) more BEMS dispatches, and 10% (95% CI = 5%, 15%) more BFD dispatches on days when the maximum temperature was 90°F or higher, which remained consistent when we considered multiple days of heat. A 10°F increase in daily maximum temperature, from 80° to 90°F, resulted in 1.016, 1.017, and 1.002 times the expected number of daily BPD, BEMS, and BFD dispatch calls, on average, after adjustment for other predictors.Conclusions. The burden of extreme heat on local emergency medical and police services may be agency-wide, and impacts on fire departments have not been previously documented.Public Health Implications. It is important to account for the societal burden of extreme heat impacts to most effectively inform climate change adaptation strategies and planning.

Environmental temperature and human epigenetic modifications: A systematic review

The knowledge about the effects of environmental temperature on human epigenome is a potential key to understand the health impacts of temperature and to guide acclimation under climate change. We performed a systematic review on the epidemiological studies that have evaluated the association between environmental temperature and human epigenetic modifications. We identified seven original articles on this topic published between 2009 and 2019, including six cohort studies and one cross-sectional study. They focused on DNA methylation in elderly people (blood sample) or infants (placenta sample), with sample size ranging from 306 to 1798. These studies were conducted in relatively low temperature setting (median/mean temperature: 0.8-13 °C), and linear models were used to evaluate temperature-DNA methylation association over short period (≤28 days). It has been reported that short-term ambient temperature could affect global human DNA methylation. A total of 15 candidate genes (ICAM-1, CRAT, F3, TLR-2, iNOS, ZKSCAN4, ZNF227, ZNF595, ZNF597, ZNF668, CACNA1H, AIRE, MYEOV2, NKX1-2 and CCDC15) with methylation status associated with ambient temperature have been identified. DNA methylation on ZKSCAN4, ICAM-1 partly mediated the effect of short-term cold temperature on high blood pressure and ICAM-1 protein (related to cardiovascular events), respectively. In summary, epidemiological evidence about the impacts of environment temperature on human epigenetics remains scarce and limited to short-term linear effect of cold temperature on DNA methylation in elderly people and infants. More studies are needed to broaden our understanding of temperature related epigenetic changes, especially under a changing climate.

Combating Climate Change-induced Heat Stress: Assessing Cool Roofs and Its Impact on the Indoor Ambient Temperature of the Households in the Urban Slums of Ahmedabad

Background

The rising global temperature and frequent heatwaves are the adverse effects of climate change. The causalities and ill impacts of the heat stress were higher among the slum dwellers because of the vulnerable household structures, which were made by heat-trapping materials like tin sheets, cement sheet (asbestos), plastic, and tarpaulin. The houses are not only dwellings but also a source of livelihood for many slum dwellers as they are involved in home-based work. The increase in the temperature of more than 40°C severely affects health and increases energy expenditures.

Objective

The present study conducted to identify the efficient cool roof technologies that reduce indoor temperature of the households and improve the heat resilience of dwellings located in the urban slums of Ahmedabad.

Methodology

The performances of cool roof interventions were compared with the nonintervention - roof types, namely, tin, asbestos/cement sheet, and concrete. Relative humidity/temperature data loggers (Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD, Sweden) were used to measure the indoor ambient temperature and humidity. The questionnaire-based survey also has been conducted to understand the socioeconomic status and the perceptions related to roofing and health.

Results

The results revealed that selected cool roof technologies including Thermocol insulation, solar reflective white paint on the outer surface of the roof, and Modroof are effectively reducing the indoor temperature as compared to the nonintervention roofing.

Conclusion

Cool roof technologies have a wider scope as number of informal settlements are increasing across the cities in India and other developing countries. The governments may not able to provide proper housing to all these inhabitants due to various reasons including the land tenure of the habitats. Validated cool roof technologies can be promoted as these structures are not requires legal sanctions and easily dismantled and installed in multiple places and safeguards the investment of urban poor.

Impact of meteorological parameters on suicide mortality rates: A case-crossover analysis in Southern Germany (1990-2006)

BACKGROUND

There is evidence for a seasonal pattern of suicides with peaks in spring and early summer; however, only a limited number of studies has investigated whether daily changes in meteorological variables may trigger suicides.

METHODS

Daily fatal suicide (N = 10,595) and meteorological data were available for four Bavarian cities and ten counties (Germany) for 1990-2006. City/county-specific immediate, delayed and cumulative effects of air temperature, sunshine duration, and cloud cover on suicides were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover approach; city/county-specific effects were then combined using random effects meta-analysis. Potential effect modifiers were specific weather conditions, personal or regional characteristics, and season.

RESULTS

A 5 °C increase in air temperature on the day before a suicide compared to the control days was associated with a 5.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6; 11.0) higher suicide risk. Further, the suicide risk was 6.5% (95% CI: 0.2; 13.3) higher on days with low/medium cloud cover (0-6 oktas) compared to days with high cloud cover (7-8 oktas). While daily changes in temperature were not associated with suicides in spring, we found a higher suicide risk in summer, autumn, and winter in association with temperature increases. The effects of cloud cover were strongest in summer and autumn and on days with temperature above the median (>8.8 °C). Sunshine duration was not associated with suicides.

CONCLUSION

We found a higher risk for suicides in association with short-term increases in air temperature on the day before the event compared to the control days and on days with low to medium cloud cover. This may highlight times when people are more likely to commit suicide.

Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study

BACKGROUND

Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.

RESULTS

A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.

Battle for the thermostat: Gender and the effect of temperature on cognitive performance

This paper studies differences in the effect of temperature on cognitive performance by gender in a large controlled lab experiment (N = 543). We study performance in math, verbal and cognitive reflection tasks and find that the effects of temperature vary significantly across men and women. At higher temperatures, women perform better on a math and verbal task while the reverse effect is observed for men. The increase in female performance in response to higher temperature is significantly larger and more precisely estimated than the corresponding decrease in male performance. In contrast to math and verbal tasks, temperature has no impact on a measure of cognitive reflection for either gender. Our findings suggest that gender mixed workplaces may be able to increase productivity by setting the thermostat higher than current standards.

Injury-Related Deaths according to Environmental, Demographic, and Lifestyle Factors

Background

Environmental, demographic, and lifestyle variables have been associated with injury-related deaths. The current study identifies the simultaneous association of selected environmental, demographic, and lifestyle variables with deaths from homicide, unintentional injuries, and suicide.

Materials and Methods

Analyses are based on county-level mortality data in the contiguous United States, 2011–15. Basic summary statistics and Poisson regression were used to evaluate the data.

Results

The selected causes of death were impacted differently by age, sex, and race: for homicide, mortality rates were greater in ages 20–39, males, and blacks; for unintentional injuries, the rates increased with age, most noticeably in the oldest age group, and were highest among males and whites; and for suicide, the rates tended to increase with age and were greater in males and whites. Mortality rates from homicide were positively associated with poverty, cigarette smoking, air temperature, and leisure-time physical inactivity. They were negatively associated with precipitation and sunlight. Mortality rates from unintentional injuries were positively associated with altitude, cigarette smoking, air temperature, poverty, obesity, and precipitation. They were negatively associated with population density. Mortality rates from suicides were positively associated with altitude, cigarette smoking, obesity, air temperature, and precipitation and negatively associated with population density.

Conclusion

The results confirm and extend previous research in which death from homicide, unintentional injuries, and suicide are distinctly associated with a combination of environmental, demographic, and lifestyle variables. The findings may be useful in developing strategies for reducing injury-related deaths.

Comparing apples to apples: an environmental criminology analysis of the effects of heat and rain on violent crimes in Boston

Weather characteristics have been suggested by many social scientists to influence criminality. A recent study suggested that climate change may cause a substantial increase in criminal activities during the twenty-first century. The additional number of crimes due to climate have been ethoroughly discussed the first draft of the paper. Allstimated by associational models, which are not optimal to quantify causal impacts of weather conditions on criminality. Using the Rubin Causal Model and crime data reported daily between 2012 and 2017, this study examines whether changes in heat index, a proxy for apparent temperature, and rainfall occurrence, influence the number of violent crimes in Boston. On average, more crimes are reported on temperate days compared to extremely cold days, and on dry days compared to rainy days. However, no significant differences in the number of crimes between extremely hot days versus less warm days could be observed. The results suggest that weather forecasts could be integrated into crime prevention programs in Boston. The weather-crime relationship should be taken into account when assessing the economic, sociological, or medical impact of climate change. Researchers and policy makers interested in the effects of environmental exposures or policy interventions on crime should consider data analyses conducted with causal inference approaches.