Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems

Plant height as an indicator for alpine carbon sequestration and ecosystem response to warming

Growing evidence indicates that plant community structure and traits have changed under climate warming, especially in cold or high-elevation regions. However, the impact of these warming-induced changes on ecosystem carbon sequestration remains unclear. Using a warming experiment on the high-elevation Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we found that warming not only increased plant species height but also altered species composition, collectively resulting in a taller plant community associated with increased net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Along a 1,500 km transect on the Plateau, taller plant community promoted NEP and soil carbon through associated chlorophyll content and other photosynthetic traits at the community level. Overall, plant community height as a dominant trait is associated with species composition and regulates ecosystem C sequestration in the high-elevation biome. This trait-based association provides new insights into predicting the direction, magnitude and sensitivity of ecosystem C fluxes in response to climate warming.

Toward a coordinated understanding of hydro-biogeochemical root functions in tropical forests for application in vegetation models

Tropical forest root characteristics and resource acquisition strategies are underrepresented in vegetation and global models, hampering the prediction of forest-climate feedbacks for these carbon-rich ecosystems. Lowland tropical forests often have globally unique combinations of high taxonomic and functional biodiversity, rainfall seasonality, and strongly weathered infertile soils, giving rise to distinct patterns in root traits and functions compared with higher latitude ecosystems. We provide a roadmap for integrating recent advances in our understanding of tropical forest belowground function into vegetation models, focusing on water and nutrient acquisition. We offer comparisons of recent advances in empirical and model understanding of root characteristics that represent important functional processes in tropical forests. We focus on: (1) fine-root strategies for soil resource exploration, (2) coupling and trade-offs in fine-root water vs nutrient acquisition, and (3) aboveground-belowground linkages in plant resource acquisition and use. We suggest avenues for representing these extremely diverse plant communities in computationally manageable and ecologically meaningful groups in models for linked aboveground-belowground hydro-nutrient functions. Tropical forests are undergoing warming, shifting rainfall regimes, and exacerbation of soil nutrient scarcity caused by elevated atmospheric CO2. The accurate model representation of tropical forest functions is crucial for understanding the interactions of this biome with the climate.

Root hydraulic properties: An exploration of their variability across scales

Root hydraulic properties are key physiological traits that determine the capacity of root systems to take up water, at a specific evaporative demand. They can strongly vary among species, cultivars or even within the same genotype, but a systematic analysis of their variation across plant functional types (PFTs) is still missing. Here, we reviewed published empirical studies on root hydraulic properties at the segment-, individual root-, or root system scale and determined its variability and the main factors contributing to it. This corresponded to a total of 241 published studies, comprising 213 species, including woody and herbaceous vegetation. We observed an extremely large range of variation (of orders of magnitude) in root hydraulic properties, but this was not caused by systematic differences among PFTs. Rather, the (combined) effect of factors such as root system age, driving force used for measurement, or stress treatments shaped the results. We found a significant decrease in root hydraulic properties under stress conditions (drought and aquaporin inhibition, p < .001) and a significant effect of the driving force used for measurement (hydrostatic or osmotic gradients, p < .001). Furthermore, whole root system conductance increased significantly with root system age across several crop species (p < .01), causing very large variation in the data (>2 orders of magnitude). Interestingly, this relationship showed an asymptotic shape, with a steep increase during the first days of growth and a flattening out at later stages of development. We confirmed this dynamic through simulations using a state-of-the-art computational model of water flow in the root system for a variety of crop species, suggesting common patterns across studies and species. These findings provide better understanding of the main causes of root hydraulic properties variations observed across empirical studies. They also open the door to better representation of hydraulic processes across multiple plant functional types and at large scales. All data collected in our analysis has been aggregated into an open access database (https://roothydraulic-properties.shinyapps.io/database/), fostering scientific exchange.

The Arctic Plant Aboveground Biomass Synthesis Dataset

Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m-2) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic.

Plant-mediated CH4 exchange in wetlands: A review of mechanisms and measurement methods with implications for modelling

Plant-mediated CH4 transport (PMT) is the dominant pathway through which soil-produced CH4 can escape into the atmosphere and thus plays an important role in controlling ecosystem CH4 emission. PMT is affected by abiotic and biotic factors simultaneously, and the effects of biotic factors, such as the dominant plant species and their traits, can override the effects of abiotic factors. Increasing evidence shows that plant-mediated CH4 fluxes include not only PMT, but also within-plant CH4 production and oxidation due to the detection of methanogens and methanotrophs attached to the shoots. Despite the inter-species and seasonal differences, and the probable contribution of within-plant microbes to total plant-mediated CH4 exchange (PME), current process-based ecosystem models only estimate PMT based on the bulk biomass or leaf area index of aerenchymatous plants. We highlight five knowledge gaps to which more research efforts should be devoted. First, large between-species variation, even within the same family, complicates general estimation of PMT, and calls for further work on the key dominant species in different types of wetlands. Second, the interface (rhizosphere-root, root-shoot, or leaf-atmosphere) and plant traits controlling PMT remain poorly documented, but would be required for generalizations from species to relevant functional groups. Third, the main environmental controls of PMT across species remain uncertain. Fourth, the role of within-plant CH4 production and oxidation is poorly quantified. Fifth, the simplistic description of PMT in current process models results in uncertainty and potentially high errors in predictions of the ecosystem CH4 flux. Our review suggest that flux measurements should be conducted over multiple growing seasons and be paired with trait assessment and microbial analysis, and that trait-based models should be developed. Only then we are capable to accurately estimate plant-mediated CH4 emissions, and eventually ecosystem total CH4 emissions at both regional and global scales.

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of "grassy" ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

Relationships of stomatal morphology to the environment across plant communities

The relationship between stomatal traits and environmental drivers across plant communities has important implications for ecosystem carbon and water fluxes, but it has remained unclear. Here, we measure the stomatal morphology of 4492 species-site combinations in 340 vegetation plots across China and calculate their community-weighted values for mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. We demonstrate a trade-off between stomatal density and size at the community level. The community-weighted mean and variance of stomatal density are mainly associated with precipitation, while that of stomatal size is mainly associated with temperature, and the skewness and kurtosis of stomatal traits are less related to climatic and soil variables. Beyond mean climate variables, stomatal trait moments also vary with climatic seasonality and extreme conditions. Our findings extend the knowledge of stomatal trait-environment relationships to the ecosystem scale, with applications in predicting future water and carbon cycles.

Arctic rooting depth distribution influences modelled carbon emissions but cannot be inferred from aboveground vegetation type

The distribution of roots throughout the soil drives depth-dependent plant-soil interactions and ecosystem processes, particularly in arctic tundra where plant biomass, is predominantly belowground. Vegetation is usually classified from aboveground, but it is unclear whether such classifications are suitable to estimate belowground attributes and their consequences, such as rooting depth distribution and its influence on carbon cycling. We performed a meta-analysis of 55 published arctic rooting depth profiles, testing for differences both between distributions based on aboveground vegetation types (Graminoid, Wetland, Erect-shrub, and Prostrate-shrub tundra) and between 'Root Profile Types' for which we defined three representative and contrasting clusters. We further analyzed potential impacts of these different rooting depth distributions on rhizosphere priming-induced carbon losses from tundra soils. Rooting depth distribution hardly differed between aboveground vegetation types but varied between Root Profile Types. Accordingly, modelled priming-induced carbon emissions were similar between aboveground vegetation types when they were applied to the entire tundra, but ranged from 7.2 to 17.6 Pg C cumulative emissions until 2100 between individual Root Profile Types. Variations in rooting depth distribution are important for the circumpolar tundra carbon-climate feedback but can currently not be inferred adequately from aboveground vegetation type classifications.

Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.

Insights into the tussock growth form with model-data fusion

Some rhizomatous grass and sedge species form tussocks that impact ecosystem structure and function. Despite their importance, tussock development and size controls are poorly understood due to the decadal to centennial timescales over which tussocks form. We explored mechanisms regulating tussock development and size in a ubiquitous arctic tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) using field observations and a mass balance model coupled with a tiller population model. Model-data fusion was used to quantify parameter and prediction uncertainty, determine model sensitivity, and test hypotheses on the factors regulating tussock size. The model accurately captured the dynamics of tussock development, characteristics, and size observed in the field. Tussock growth approached maximal size within several decades, which was determined by feedbacks between the mass balance of tussock root necromass and density-dependent tillering. The model also predicted that maximal tussock size was primarily regulated by tiller root productivity and necromass bulk density and less so by tiller demography. These predictions were corroborated by field observations of tussock biomass and root characteristics. The study highlights the importance of belowground processes in regulating tussock development and size and enhances our understanding of the influence of tussocks on arctic ecosystem structure and function.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Modeling strategies and data needs for representing coastal wetland vegetation in land surface models

Vegetated coastal ecosystems sequester carbon rapidly relative to terrestrial ecosystems. Coastal wetlands are poorly represented in land surface models, but work is underway to improve process-based, predictive modeling of these ecosystems. Here, we identify guiding questions, potential simulations, and data needs to make progress in improving representation of vegetation in terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, with a focus on coastal and estuarine ecosystems. We synthesize relevant plant traits and environmental controls on vegetation that influence carbon cycling in coastal ecosystems. We propose that models include separate plant functional types (PFTs) for mangroves, graminoid salt marshes, and succulent salt marshes to adequately represent the variation in aboveground and belowground productivity between common coastal wetland vegetation types. We also discuss the drivers and carbon storage consequences of shifts in dominant PFTs. We suggest several potential approaches to represent the diversity in vegetation tolerance and adaptations to fluctuations in salinity and water level, which drive key gradients in coastal wetland ecosystems. Finally, we discuss data needs for parameterizing and evaluating model implementations of coastal wetland vegetation types and function.

Global net biome CO2 exchange predicted comparably well using parameter-environment relationships and plant functional types

Accurate estimation and forecasts of net biome CO₂ exchange (NBE) are vital for understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in a changing climate. Prior efforts to improve NBE predictions have predominantly focused on increasing models' structural realism (and thus complexity), but parametric error and uncertainty are also key determinants of model skill. Here, we investigate how different parameterization assumptions propagate into NBE prediction errors across the globe, pitting the traditional plant functional type (PFT)-based approach against a novel top-down, machine learning-based "environmental filtering" (EF) approach. To do so, we simulate these contrasting methods for parameter assignment within a flexible model-data fusion framework of the terrestrial carbon cycle (CARDAMOM) at a global scale. In the PFT-based approach, model parameters from a small number of select locations are applied uniformly within regions sharing similar land cover characteristics. In the EF-based approach, a pixel's parameters are predicted based on underlying relationships with climate, soil, and canopy properties. To isolate the role of parametric from structural uncertainty in our analysis, we benchmark the resulting PFT-based and EF-based NBE predictions with estimates from CARDAMOM's Bayesian optimization approach (whereby "true" parameters consistent with a suite of data constraints are retrieved on a pixel-by-pixel basis). When considering the mean absolute error of NBE predictions across time, we find that the EF-based approach matches or outperforms the PFT-based approach at 55% of pixels-a narrow majority. However, NBE estimates from the EF-based approach are susceptible to compensation between errors in component flux predictions and predicted parameters can align poorly with the assumed "true" values. Overall, though, the EF-based approach is comparable to conventional approaches and merits further investigation to better understand and resolve these limitations. This work provides insight into the relationship between terrestrial biosphere model performance and parametric uncertainty, informing efforts to improve model parameterization via PFT-free and trait-based approaches.

Thermodynamic basis for the demarcation of Arctic and alpine treelines

At the edge of alpine and Arctic ecosystems all over the world, a transition zone exists beyond which it is either infeasible or unfavorable for trees to exist, colloquially identified as the treeline. We explore the possibility of a thermodynamic basis behind this demarcation in vegetation by considering ecosystems as open systems driven by thermodynamic advantage—defined by vegetation’s ability to dissipate heat from the earth’s surface to the air above the canopy. To deduce whether forests would be more thermodynamically advantageous than existing ecosystems beyond treelines, we construct and examine counterfactual scenarios in which trees exist beyond a treeline instead of the existing alpine meadow or Arctic tundra. Meteorological data from the Italian Alps, United States Rocky Mountains, and Western Canadian Taiga-Tundra are used as forcing for model computation of ecosystem work and temperature gradients at sites on both sides of each treeline with and without trees. Model results indicate that the alpine sites do not support trees beyond the treeline, as their presence would result in excessive CO$$_2$$ 2 loss and extended periods of snowpack due to temperature inversions (i.e., positive temperature gradient from the earth surface to the atmosphere). Further, both Arctic and alpine sites exhibit negative work resulting in positive feedback between vegetation heat dissipation and temperature gradient, thereby extending the duration of temperature inversions. These conditions demonstrate thermodynamic infeasibility associated with the counterfactual scenario of trees existing beyond a treeline. Thus, we conclude that, in addition to resource constraints, a treeline is an outcome of an ecosystem’s ability to self-organize towards the most advantageous vegetation structure facilitated by thermodynamic feasibility.

The future of tundra carbon storage in Greenland - Sensitivity to climate and plant trait changes

The continuous change in observed key indicators such as increasing nitrogen deposition, temperatures and precipitation will have marked but uncertain consequences for the ecosystem carbon (C) sink-source functioning of the Arctic. Here, we use multiple in-situ data streams measured by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring programme in tight connection with the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model and climate projections from the high-resolution HIRHAM5 regional model. We apply this modelling framework with focus on two climatically different tundra sites in Greenland (Zackenberg and Kobbefjord) to assess how sensitive the net C uptake will expectedly be under warmer and wetter conditions across the 21st century and pin down the relative contribution to the overall C sink strength from climate versus plant trait variability. Our results suggest that temperatures (5-7.7 °C), total precipitation (19-110 %) and vapour pressure deficit will increase (32-36 %), while shortwave radiation will decline (6-9 %) at both sites by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Such a combined effect will, on average, intensify the net C uptake by 9-10 g C m^-2 year^-1 at both sites towards the end of 2100, but Zackenberg is expected to have more than twice the C sink strength capacity of Kobbefjord. Our sensitivity analysis not only reveals that plant traits are the most sensitive parameters controlling the net C exchange in both sites at the beginning and end of the century, but also that the projected increase in the net C uptake will likely be similarly influenced by future changes in climate and existing local nutrient conditions. A series of experiments forcing realistic changes in plant nitrogen status at both sites corroborates this hypothesis. This work proves the unique synergy between monitoring data and numerical models to assist robust model calibration/validation and narrow uncertainty ranges and ultimately produce more reliable C cycle projections in understudied regions such as Greenland.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

Modeling Global Carbon Costs of Plant Nitrogen and Phosphorus Acquisition

Most Earth system models (ESMs) do not explicitly represent the carbon (C) costs of plant nutrient acquisition, which leads to uncertainty in predictions of the current and future constraints to the land C sink. We integrate a plant productivity-optimizing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) acquisition model (fixation & uptake of nutrients, FUN) into the energy exascale Earth system (E3SM) land model (ELM). Global plant N and P uptake are dynamically simulated by ELM-FUN based on the C costs of nutrient acquisition from mycorrhizae, direct root uptake, retranslocation from senescing leaves, and biological N fixation. We benchmarked ELM-FUN with three classes of products: ILAMB, a remotely sensed nutrient limitation product, and CMIP6 models; we found significant improvements in C cycle variables, although the lack of more observed nutrient data prevents a comprehensive level of benchmarking. Overall, we found N and P co-limitation for 80% of land area, with the remaining 20% being either predominantly N or P limited. Globally, the new model predicts that plants invested 4.1 Pg C yr-1 to acquire 841.8 Tg N yr-1 and 48.1 Tg P yr-1 (1994-2005), leading to significant downregulation of global net primary production (NPP). Global NPP is reduced by 20% with C costs of N and 50% with C costs of NP. Modeled and observed nutrient limitation agreement increases when N and P are considered together (r 2 from 0.73 to 0.83).

Insect Herbivory Caused Plant Stress Emissions Increases the Negative Radiative Forcing of Aerosols

Plant stress in a changing climate is predicted to increase plant volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and thus can affect the formed secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations, which in turn affect the radiative properties of clouds and aerosol. However, global aerosol-climate models do not usually consider plant stress induced VOCs in their emission schemes. In this study, we modified the monoterpene emission factors in biogenic emission model to simulate biotic stress caused by insect herbivory on needleleaf evergreen boreal and broadleaf deciduous boreal trees and studied the consequent effects on SOA formation, aerosol-cloud interactions as well as direct radiative effects of formed SOA. Simulations were done altering the fraction of stressed and healthy trees in the latest version of ECHAM-HAMMOZ (ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0) global aerosol-climate model. Our simulations showed that increasing the extent of stress to the aforementioned tree types, substantially increased the SOA burden especially over the areas where these trees are located. This indicates that increased VOC emissions due to increasing stress enhance the SOA formation via oxidation of VOCs to low VOCs. In addition, cloud droplet number concentration at the cloud top increased with increasing extent of biotic stress. This indicates that as SOA formation increases, it further enhances the number of particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei. The increase in SOA formation also decreased both all-sky and clear-sky radiative forcing. This was due to a shift in particle size distributions that enhanced aerosol reflecting and scattering of incoming solar radiation.

Desiccation-rehydration measurements in bryophytes: current status and future insights

Desiccation-rehydration experiments have been employed over the years to evaluate desiccation tolerance of bryophytes (Bryophyta, Marchantiophyta, and Anthocerotophyta). Researchers have applied a spectrum of protocols to induce desiccation and subsequent rehydration, and a wide variety of techniques have been used to study desiccation-dependent changes in bryophyte molecular, cellular, physiological, and structural traits, resulting in a multifaceted assortment of information that is challenging to synthesize. We analysed 337 desiccation-rehydration studies, providing information for 351 species, to identify the most frequent methods used, analyse the advances in desiccation studies over the years, and characterize the taxonomic representation of the species assessed. We observed certain similarities across methodologies, but the degree of convergence among the experimental protocols was surprisingly low. Out of 52 bryophyte orders, 40% have not been studied, and data are lacking for multiple remote or difficult to access locations. We conclude that for quantitative interspecific comparisons of desiccation tolerance, rigorous standardization of experimental protocols and measurement techniques, and simultaneous use of an array of experimental techniques are required for a mechanistic insight into the different traits modified in response to desiccation. New studies should also aim to fill gaps in taxonomic, ecological, and spatial coverage of bryophytes.

Identifying climate thresholds for dominant natural vegetation types at the global scale using machine learning: Average climate versus extremes

The global distribution of vegetation is largely determined by climatic conditions and feeds back into the climate system. To predict future vegetation changes in response to climate change, it is crucial to identify and understand key patterns and processes that couple vegetation and climate. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been widely applied to describe the distribution of vegetation types and their future dynamics in response to climate change. As a process-based approach, it partly relies on hard-coded climate thresholds to constrain the distribution of vegetation. What thresholds to implement in DGVMs and how to replace them with more process-based descriptions remain among the major challenges. In this study, we employ machine learning using decision trees to extract large-scale relationships between the global distribution of vegetation and climatic characteristics from remotely sensed vegetation and climate data. We analyse how the dominant vegetation types are linked to climate extremes as compared to seasonally or annually averaged climatic conditions. The results show that climate extremes allow us to describe the distribution and eco-climatological space of the vegetation types more accurately than the averaged climate variables, especially those types which occupy small territories in a relatively homogeneous ecological space. Future predicted vegetation changes using both climate extremes and averaged climate variables are less prominent than that predicted by averaged climate variables and are in better agreement with those of DGVMs, further indicating the importance of climate extremes in determining geographic distributions of different vegetation types. We found that the temperature thresholds for vegetation types (e.g. grass and open shrubland) in cold environments vary with moisture conditions. The coldest daily maximum temperature (extreme cold day) is particularly important for separating many different vegetation types. These findings highlight the need for a more explicit representation of the impacts of climate extremes on vegetation in DGVMs.

Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada

Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955–2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e. when air temperature is < 0 °C, and their potential damage to trees. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.

Estimation of Global Cropland Gross Primary Production from Satellite Observations by Integrating Water Availability Variable in Light-Use-Efficiency Model

Satellite-based models have been widely used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems. Although they have many advantages for mapping spatiotemporal variations of regional or global GPP, the performance in agroecosystems is relatively poor. In this study, a light-use-efficiency model for cropland GPP estimation, named EF-LUE, driven by remote sensing data, was developed by integrating evaporative fraction (EF) as limiting factor accounting for soil water availability. Model parameters were optimized first using CO2 flux measurements by eddy covariance system from flux tower sites, and the optimized parameters were further spatially extrapolated according to climate zones for global cropland GPP estimation in 2001–2019. The major forcing datasets include the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) data from the Copernicus Global Land Service System (CGLS) GEOV2 dataset, EF from the ETMonitor model, and meteorological forcing variables from ERA5 data. The EF-LUE model was first evaluated at flux tower site-level, and the results suggested that the proposed EF-LUE model and the LUE model without using water availability limiting factor, both driven by flux tower meteorology data, explained 82% and 74% of the temporal variations of GPP across crop sites, respectively. The overall KGE increased from 0.73 to 0.83, NSE increased from 0.73 to 0.81, and RMSE decreased from 2.87 to 2.39 g C m−2 d−1 in the estimated GPP after integrating EF in the LUE model. These improvements may be largely attributed to parameters optimized for different climatic zones and incorporating water availability limiting factor expressed by EF into the light-use-efficiency model. At global scale, the verification by GPP measurements from cropland flux tower sites showed that GPP estimated by the EF-LUE model driven by ERA5 reanalysis meteorological data and EF from ETMonitor had overall the highest R2, KGE, and NSE and the smallest RMSE over the four existing GPP datasets (MOD17 GPP, revised EC-LUE GPP, GOSIF GPP and PML-V2 GPP). The global GPP from the EF-LUE model could capture the significant negative GPP anomalies during drought or heat-wave events, indicating its ability to express the impacts of the water stress on cropland GPP.

Reducing model uncertainty of climate change impacts on high latitude carbon assimilation

The Arctic-Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO₂ . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Here we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology, and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.

Relative Importance of Landscape and Climate Factors to the Species Diversity of Plant Growth Forms along an East Asian Archipelago

Previous studies on island biogeography theory have limitations in that they are mostly focused on total plant species and the landscape factors of the islands. Our study was conducted to overcome these limitations by dividing the plants into five growth forms and analyzing climate and landscape factors on inhabited islands, uninhabited islands, and overall. This was achieved using plant data from 578 islands of an archipelago in South Korea. To test the relationship between the species richness of each growth form and environmental factors, we performed ordinary least squares regressions and multi-model inference tests. The results showed that the island area had the largest influence on species richness of all growth forms in overall and uninhabited islands. Moreover, climate factors, in addition to island area, significantly affected species richness of all growth forms on inhabited islands. However, the effect and of isolation-related landscape factors (i.e., distance from the mainland and structural connectivity) were different among growth forms and island categories. Our study reveals that there are differences in the effects of environmental factors on the growth forms of plants among island categories. This suggests that biodiversity management and conservation strategies should be applied separately to different growth forms and islands.

The Joint Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Surface Soil Moisture into a Land Surface Model

This work tests the hypothesis that jointly assimilating satellite observations of leaf area index and surface soil moisture into a land surface model improves the estimation of land vegetation and water variables. An Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to test this hypothesis across the Contiguous United States from April 2015 to December 2018. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed for several modeled vegetation and water variables (evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil moisture) in terms of random errors and anomaly correlation coefficients against a set of independent validation datasets (i.e., Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model, FLUXCOM, and International Soil Moisture Network). The results show that the assimilation of the leaf area index mostly improves the estimation of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange, whereas the assimilation of surface soil moisture alone improves surface soil moisture content, especially in the western US, in terms of both root mean squared error and anomaly correlation coefficient. The joint assimilation of vegetation and soil moisture information combines the results of individual vegetation and soil moisture assimilations and reduces errors (and increases correlations with the reference datasets) in evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and surface soil moisture simulated by the land surface model. However, because soil moisture satellite observations only provide information on the water content in the top 5 cm of the soil column, the impact of the proposed data assimilation technique on root zone soil moisture is limited. This work moves one step forward in the direction of improving our estimation and understanding of land surface interactions using a multivariate data assimilation approach, which can be particularly useful in regions of the world where ground observations are sparse or missing altogether.

Assessing and predicting soil carbon density in China using CMIP5 earth system models

Soil carbon (SC) is a key component of the carbon cycle and plays an important role in climate change; however, quantitatively assessing SC dynamics at the regional scale remains challenging. Earth system model (ESM) that considers multiple environmental factors and spatial heterogeneity has become a powerful tool to explore carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, although the performance of the ESM is diverse and highly uncertain. Thus, identifying reliable ESMs is a prerequisite for better understanding the response of SC dynamics to human activity and climate change. The 16 ESMs that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were employed to evaluate the skill performance of SC density simulation by comparison with reference data from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBP-DIS). Although ESMs generally reflect spatial patterns with lower SC in northwest China and higher SC in southeast China, 11 of 16 ESMs underestimated the SC in China, and 5 of 16 ESMs overestimated the SC density as most ESMs had large discrepancies in capturing the SC density in the northern high latitudes of China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. According to a series of model performance statistics, SC simulated by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Coupled Model had a close spatial pattern with IGBP-DIS and showed higher skills for SC predictions in China relative to other CMIP5 ESMs. The multimodel ensemble average obtained by IPSL family ESMs showed that SC density exhibited increasing trends under both the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario. The SC density increased slowly under RCP8.5 compared with that under RCP4.5 and even displayed a decreasing trend in the late 21st century. The findings of this study can provide a reference for identifying the shortcomings of SC predictions in China and guide SC parameterization improvement in ESMs.

Beyond leaf habit: generalities in plant function across 97 tropical dry forest tree species

Leaf habit has been hypothesized to define a linkage between the slow-fast plant economic spectrum and the drought resistance-avoidance trade-off in tropical forests ('slow-safe vs fast-risky'). However, variation in hydraulic traits as a function of leaf habit has rarely been explored for a large number of species. We sampled leaf and branch functional traits of 97 tropical dry forest tree species from four sites to investigate whether patterns of trait variation varied consistently in relation to leaf habit along the 'slow-safe vs fast-risky' trade-off. Leaf habit explained from 0% to 43.69% of individual trait variation. We found that evergreen and semi-deciduous species differed in their location along the multivariate trait ordination when compared to deciduous species. While deciduous species showed consistent trait values, evergreen species trait values varied as a function of the site. Last, trait values varied in relation to the proportion of deciduous species in the plant community. We found that leaf habit describes the strategies that define drought avoidance and plant economics in tropical trees. However, leaf habit alone does not explain patterns of trait variation, which suggests quantifying site-specific or species-specific uncertainty in trait variation as the way forward.

Predicting Soil Respiration from Plant Productivity (NDVI) in a Sub-Arctic Tundra Ecosystem

Soils represent the largest store of carbon in the biosphere with soils at high latitudes containing twice as much carbon (C) than the atmosphere. High latitude tundra vegetation communities show increases in the relative abundance and cover of deciduous shrubs which may influence net ecosystem exchange of CO2 from this C-rich ecosystem. Monitoring soil respiration (Rs) as a crucial component of the ecosystem carbon balance at regional scales is difficult given the remoteness of these ecosystems and the intensiveness of measurements that is required. Here we use direct measurements of Rs from contrasting tundra plant communities combined with direct measurements of aboveground plant productivity via Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to predict soil respiration across four key vegetation communities in a tundra ecosystem. Soil respiration exhibited a nonlinear relationship with NDVI (y = 0.202e3.508 x, p < 0.001). Our results further suggest that NDVI and soil temperature can help predict Rs if vegetation type is taken into consideration. We observed, however, that NDVI is not a relevant explanatory variable in the estimation of SOC in a single-study analysis.

Consistent trait-environment relationships within and across tundra plant communities

A fundamental assumption in trait-based ecology is that relationships between traits and environmental conditions are globally consistent. We use field-quantified microclimate and soil data to explore if trait-environment relationships are generalizable across plant communities and spatial scales. We collected data from 6,720 plots and 217 species across four distinct tundra regions from both hemispheres. We combined these data with over 76,000 database trait records to relate local plant community trait composition to broad gradients of key environmental drivers: soil moisture, soil temperature, soil pH and potential solar radiation. Results revealed strong, consistent trait-environment relationships across Arctic and Antarctic regions. This indicates that the detected relationships are transferable between tundra plant communities also when fine-scale environmental heterogeneity is accounted for, and that variation in local conditions heavily influences both structural and leaf economic traits. Our results strengthen the biological and mechanistic basis for climate change impact predictions of vulnerable high-latitude ecosystems.

A research framework for projecting ecosystem change in highly diverse tropical mountain ecosystems

Tropical mountain ecosystems are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Their diversity and complexity make projections how they respond to environmental changes challenging. A suitable way are trait-based approaches, by distinguishing between response traits that determine the resistance of species to environmental changes and effect traits that are relevant for species' interactions, biotic processes, and ecosystem functions. The combination of those approaches with land surface models (LSM) linking the functional community composition to ecosystem functions provides new ways to project the response of ecosystems to environmental changes. With the interdisciplinary project RESPECT, we propose a research framework that uses a trait-based response-effect-framework (REF) to quantify relationships between abiotic conditions, the diversity of functional traits in communities, and associated biotic processes, informing a biodiversity-LSM. We apply the framework to a megadiverse tropical mountain forest. We use a plot design along an elevation and a land-use gradient to collect data on abiotic drivers, functional traits, and biotic processes. We integrate these data to build the biodiversity-LSM and illustrate how to test the model. REF results show that aboveground biomass production is not directly related to changing climatic conditions, but indirectly through associated changes in functional traits. Herbivory is directly related to changing abiotic conditions. The biodiversity-LSM informed by local functional trait and soil data improved the simulation of biomass production substantially. We conclude that local data, also derived from previous projects (platform Ecuador), are key elements of the research framework. We specify essential datasets to apply this framework to other mountain ecosystems.

Active layer depth and soil properties impact specific leaf area variation and ecosystem productivity in a boreal forest

Specific leaf area (SLA, leaf area per unit dry mass) is a key canopy structural characteristic, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and an important input into many terrestrial process models. Although many studies have examined SLA variation, relatively few data exist from high latitude, climate-sensitive permafrost regions. We measured SLA and soil and topographic properties across a boreal forest permafrost transition, in which dominant tree species changed as permafrost deepened from 54 to >150 cm over 75 m hillslope transects in Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Alaska. We characterized both linear and threshold relationships between topographic and edaphic variables and SLA and developed a conceptual model of these relationships. We found that the depth of the soil active layer above permafrost was significantly and positively correlated with SLA for both coniferous and deciduous boreal tree species. Intraspecific SLA variation was associated with a fivefold increase in net primary production, suggesting that changes in active layer depth due to permafrost thaw could strongly influence ecosystem productivity. While this is an exploratory study to begin understanding SLA variation in a non-contiguous permafrost system, our results indicate the need for more extensive evaluation across larger spatial domains. These empirical relationships and associated uncertainty can be incorporated into ecosystem models that use dynamic traits, improving our ability to predict ecosystem-level carbon cycling responses to ongoing climate change.

Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model

Changes in CO2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between climate inputs, physiology of vegetation, and soils at a monthly time step. The updated modeling system can produce high quality projections of climate impacts on forest species range shifts by accounting for the interacting effects of CO2 concentration, climate (including longer growing seasons), seed dispersal, disturbance, and soil hydrologic properties.

An optimality-based model explains seasonal variation in C3 plant photosynthetic capacity

The maximum rate of carboxylation (V_cmax ) is an essential leaf trait determining the photosynthetic capacity of plants. Existing approaches for estimating V_cmax at large scale mainly rely on empirical relationships with proxies such as leaf nitrogen/chlorophyll content or hyperspectral reflectance, or on complicated inverse models from gross primary production or solar-induced fluorescence. A novel mechanistic approach based on the assumption that plants optimize resource investment coordinating with environment and growth has been shown to accurately predict C3 plant V_cmax based on mean growing season environmental conditions. However, the ability of optimality theory to explain seasonal variation in V_cmax has not been fully investigated. Here, we adapt an optimality-based model to simulate daily V_cmax,25C (V_cmax at a standardized temperature of 25°C) by incorporating the effects of antecedent environment, which affects current plant functioning, and dynamic light absorption, which coordinates with plant functioning. We then use seasonal V_cmax,25C field measurements from 10 sites across diverse ecosystems to evaluate model performance. Overall, the model explains about 83% of the seasonal variation in C3 plant V_cmax,25C across the 10 sites, with a medium root mean square error of 12.3 μmol m^-2  s^-1 , which suggests that seasonal changes in V_cmax,25C are consistent with optimal plant function. We show that failing to account for acclimation to antecedent environment or coordination with dynamic light absorption dramatically decreases estimation accuracy. Our results show that optimality-based approach can accurately reproduce seasonal variation in canopy photosynthetic potential, and suggest that incorporating such theory into next-generation trait-based terrestrial biosphere models would improve predictions of global photosynthesis.

A Multi-Sensor Unoccupied Aerial System Improves Characterization of Vegetation Composition and Canopy Properties in the Arctic Tundra

Changes in vegetation distribution, structure, and function can modify the canopy properties of terrestrial ecosystems, with potential consequences for regional and global climate feedbacks. In the Arctic, climate is warming twice as fast as compared to the global average (known as ‘Arctic amplification’), likely having stronger impacts on arctic tundra vegetation. In order to quantify these changes and assess their impacts on ecosystem structure and function, methods are needed to accurately characterize the canopy properties of tundra vegetation types. However, commonly used ground-based measurements are limited in spatial and temporal coverage, and differentiating low-lying tundra plant species is challenging with coarse-resolution satellite remote sensing. The collection and processing of multi-sensor data from unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) has the potential to fill the gap between ground-based and satellite observations. To address the critical need for such data in the Arctic, we developed a cost-effective multi-sensor UAS (the ‘Osprey’) using off-the-shelf instrumentation. The Osprey simultaneously produces high-resolution optical, thermal, and structural images, as well as collecting point-based hyperspectral measurements, over vegetation canopies. In this paper, we describe the setup and deployment of the Osprey system in the Arctic to a tundra study site located in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We present a case study demonstrating the processing and application of Osprey data products for characterizing the key biophysical properties of tundra vegetation canopies. In this study, plant functional types (PFTs) representative of arctic tundra ecosystems were mapped with an overall accuracy of 87.4%. The Osprey image products identified significant differences in canopy-scale greenness, canopy height, and surface temperature among PFTs, with deciduous low to tall shrubs having the lowest canopy temperatures while non-vascular lichens had the warmest. The analysis of our hyperspectral data showed that variation in the fractional cover of deciduous low to tall shrubs was effectively characterized by Osprey reflectance measurements across the range of visible to near-infrared wavelengths. Therefore, the development and deployment of the Osprey UAS, as a state-of-the-art methodology, has the potential to be widely used for characterizing tundra vegetation composition and canopy properties to improve our understanding of ecosystem dynamics in the Arctic, and to address scale issues between ground-based and airborne/satellite observations.

Lead transfer into the vegetation layer growing naturally in a Pb-contaminated site

The lead was one of the main elements in the glazes used to colour ceramic tiles. Due to its presence, ceramic sludge has been a source of environmental pollution since this dangerous waste has been often spread into the soil without any measures of pollution control. These contaminated sites are often located close to industrial sites in the peri-urban areas, thus representing a considerable hazard to the human and ecosystem health. In this study, we investigated the lead transfer into the vegetation layer (Phragmites australis, Salix alba and Sambucus nigra) growing naturally along a Pb-contaminated ditch bank. The analysis showed a different lead accumulation among the species and their plant tissues. Salix trees were not affected by the Pb contamination, possibly because their roots mainly develop below the contaminated deposit. Differently, Sambucus accumulated high concentrations of lead in all plant tissues and fruits, representing a potential source of biomagnification. Phragmites accumulated large amounts of lead in the rhizomes and, considering its homogeneous distribution on the site, was used to map the contamination. Analysing the Pb concentration within plant tissues, we got at the same time information about the spread, the history of the contamination and the relative risks. Finally, we discussed the role of natural recolonizing plants for the soil pollution mitigation and their capacity on decreasing soil erosion and water run-off.

The Leaf Economics Spectrum Constrains Phenotypic Plasticity Across a Light Gradient

The leaf economics spectrum (LES) characterizes multivariate correlations that confine the global diversity of leaf functional traits onto a single axis of variation. Although LES is well established for traits of sun leaves, it is unclear how well LES characterizes the diversity of traits for shade leaves. Here, we evaluate LES using the sun and shade leaves of 75 woody species sampled at the extremes of a within-canopy light gradient in a subtropical forest. Shading significantly decreased the mean values of LMA and the rates of photosynthesis and dark respiration, but had no discernable effect on nitrogen and phosphorus content. Sun and shade leaves manifested the same relationships among N mass, P mass, A mass, and R mass (i.e., the slopes of log-log scaling relations of LES traits did not differ between sun and shade leaves). However, the difference between the normalization constants of shade and sun leaves was correlated with functional trait plasticity. Although the generality of this finding should be evaluated further using larger datasets comprising more phylogenetically diverse taxa and biomes, these findings support a unified LES across shade as well as sun leaves.

Do Herbaceous Species Functional Groups Have a Uniform Pattern along an Elevation Gradient? The Case of a Semi-Arid Savanna Grasslands in Southern Ethiopia

Knowledge of the total (overall) and individual herbaceous vegetation species relating to a distinctive site might help in the development of management strategies for a large number of threatened herbaceous species. This paper assesses the total and functional group herbaceous biomass, species richness, evenness, and diversity at four elevation classes in Borana rangelands of arid thorn bush savanna grasslands in Southern Ethiopia. At each elevation class, a grid of 20 × 20 m main plot was placed, and individual herbaceous species samples were collected randomly from five 1 m² quadrants within the main plot. Using a single-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA), the effects of four elevation classes were considered on whole-vegetation, grasses, graminoid, and forb species diversity, evenness, richness, and biomass. A total of 49 herbaceous species were recorded. Of the total identified herbaceous species, three grass species and two graminoid species were found across all studied elevation classes, but the forb species did not overlap along the studied elevation classes. The total richness, diversity, and evenness of herbaceous species were considerable and significant along elevation classes. The grass, graminoid, and forb species richness, diversity, and evenness responded differently, and the functional group of species may be a good indicator of the community processes of grassland across elevation classes. The contribution of forb richness to the total richness was more pronounced than grass and graminoid, which indicates the shift of savanna grassland to grazing tolerant herbaceous species. The results suggest that the pooled data analysis of herbaceous vegetation community structure and biomass could obscure complicate trends of the functional group at elevation classes and for managing herbaceous species in savanna grasslands, the management models should focus on the functional group species composition, community structure, and biomass.

Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis

The leaf economic spectrum is a widely studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of plant functional types (PFTs). We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (specific leaf area [SLA], N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (dark respiration [R_d ], maximum RuBisCo carboxylation rate [V_c,max ], maximum electron transport rate [J_max ]) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, this covariance was an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.

Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.

Historical changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: empirical support for an optimality principle

The ratio of leaf internal (c_i ) to ambient (c_a ) partial pressure of CO₂ , defined here as χ, is an index of adjustments in both leaf stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rate to environmental conditions. Measurements and proxies of this ratio can be used to constrain vegetation model uncertainties for predicting terrestrial carbon uptake and water use. We test a theory based on the least-cost optimality hypothesis for modelling historical changes in χ over the 1951-2014 period, across different tree species and environmental conditions, as reconstructed from stable carbon isotopic measurements across a global network of 103 absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies. The theory predicts optimal χ as a function of air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, c_a and atmospheric pressure. The theoretical model predicts 39% of the variance in χ values across sites and years, but underestimates the intersite variability in the reconstructed χ trends, resulting in only 8% of the variance in χ trends across years explained by the model. Overall, our results support theoretical predictions that variations in χ are tightly regulated by the four environmental drivers. They also suggest that explicitly accounting for the effects of plant-available soil water and other site-specific characteristics might improve the predictions.

Sensitivity analysis and estimation using a hierarchical Bayesian method for the parameters of the FvCB biochemical photosynthetic model

Photosynthesis is a major process included in land surface models. Accurately estimating the parameters of the photosynthetic sub-models can greatly improve the ability of these models to accurately simulate the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to fit the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model, which is based on the biochemistry of photosynthesis using 236 curves for the relationship between net CO₂ assimilation and changes in the intercellular CO₂ concentration. An advantage of the hierarchical Bayesian algorithm is that parameters can be estimated at multiple levels (plant, species, plant functional type, and population level) simultaneously. The parameters of the hierarchical strategy were based on the results of a sensitivity analysis. The Michaelis-Menten constant (K_c25), enthalpies of activation (E_J and E_V), and two optical parameters (θ and α) demonstrated considerable variation at different levels, which suggests that this variation cannot be ignored. The maximum electron transport rate (J_max25), maximum rate of Rubisco activity (V_cmax25), and dark respiration in the light (R_d25) were higher for broad-leaved plants than for needle-leaved plants. Comparison of the model's simulated outputs with observed data showed strong and significant positive correlations, particularly when the model was parameterized at the plant level. In summary, our study is the first effort to combine sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation. The resulting realistic parameter distributions for the four levels provide a reference for current and future land surface models. Furthermore, the observed variation in the parameters will require attention when using photosynthetic parameters in future models.

From the Arctic to the tropics: multibiome prediction of leaf mass per area using leaf reflectance

Leaf mass per area (LMA) is a key plant trait, reflecting tradeoffs between leaf photosynthetic function, longevity, and structural investment. Capturing spatial and temporal variability in LMA has been a long-standing goal of ecological research and is an essential component for advancing Earth system models. Despite the substantial variation in LMA within and across Earth's biomes, an efficient, globally generalizable approach to predict LMA is still lacking. We explored the capacity to predict LMA from leaf spectra across much of the global LMA trait space, with values ranging from 17 to 393 g m^-2 . Our dataset contained leaves from a wide range of biomes from the high Arctic to the tropics, included broad- and needleleaf species, and upper- and lower-canopy (i.e. sun and shade) growth environments. Here we demonstrate the capacity to rapidly estimate LMA using only spectral measurements across a wide range of species, leaf age and canopy position from diverse biomes. Our model captures LMA variability with high accuracy and low error (R²  = 0.89; root mean square error (RMSE) = 15.45 g m^-2 ). Our finding highlights the fact that the leaf economics spectrum is mirrored by the leaf optical spectrum, paving the way for this technology to predict the diversity of LMA in ecosystems across global biomes.

Alder Distribution and Expansion Across a Tundra Hillslope: Implications for Local N Cycling

Increases in the availability of nitrogen (N) may have consequences for plant growth and nutrient cycling in N-limited tundra plant communities. We investigated the impact alder (Alnus viridis spp. fruticosa), an N-fixing deciduous shrub, has on tundra N cycling at a hillslope located on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. We quantified N fixation using 15N2 incubations within two distinct alder communities at this site: alder shrublands located on well-drained, rocky outcroppings in the uplands and alder savannas located in water tracks along the moist toeslope of the hill. Annual N fixation rates in alder shrublands were 1.95 ± 0.68 g N m-2 year-1, leading to elevated N levels in adjacent soils and plants. Alder savannas had lower N fixation rates (0.53 ± 0.19 g N m-2 year-1), perhaps due to low phosphorus availability and poor drainage in these highly organic soil profiles underlain by permafrost. In addition to supporting higher rates of N fixation, tall-statured alder shrublands had different foliar traits than relatively short-statured alder in savannas, providing an opportunity to link N fixation to remotely-sensed variables. We were able to generate a map of the alder shrubland distribution at this site using a multi-sensor fusion approach. The change in alder shrubland distribution through time was also determined from historic aerial and satellite imagery. Analysis of historic imagery showed that the area of alder shrublands at this site has increased by 40% from 1956 to 2014. We estimate this increase in alder shrublands was associated with a 22% increase in N fixation. Our results suggest that expansion of alder shrublands has the potential to substantially alter N cycling, increase plant productivity, and redistribute C storage in upland tundra regions. An improved understanding of the consequences of N fixation within N-limited tundra plant communities will therefore be crucial for predicting the biogeochemistry of these warming ecosystems.

Transmission of ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared solar radiation to plants within a seasonal snow pack

Sunlight is strongly attenuated by the snowpack, causing irradiance to decrease exponentially with depth. The strength of attenuation is wavelength dependent across the spectrum. Changes in received irradiance and its spectral composition are used by plants as cues for the timing of phenology, and it is known that at shallow depths in the snowpack there is sufficient light for plants to photosynthesize if conditions are otherwise favourable. The spectral composition of solar radiation under snow in the visible region was already determined in the 1970s using scanning spectroradiometers, but spectral attenuation within the ultraviolet region (UV-B 280-315 nm, UV-A 315-400 nm) has not been well characterised because it is difficult to measure. We measured vertical transects of spectral irradiance (290-900 nm) transmitted through a settled seasonal snowpack. The peak transmission of radiation was in the UV-A region in the upper centimetres of the snowpack and transmittance generally declined at longer wavelengths. Given the known action spectra of plant photoreceptors, these results illustrate the possibility that changing UV-A : visible and red : far-red radiation ratios under the snowpack may serve as spectral cues for plants; potentially priming plants for the less stable environment they experience following snowmelt. Array spectrometers open opportunities for rapid and continuous measurement of irradiance in challenging environments, e.g. beneath the snowpack, and capturing changing light conditions for plants. Future research is needed to couple the spectral transmittance of snowpacks differing in their longevity and crystal structure with measurements of the perception and response to radiation by plants under snow.

Simulated projections of boreal forest peatland ecosystem productivity are sensitive to observed seasonality in leaf physiology†

We quantified seasonal CO2 assimilation capacities for seven dominant vascular species in a wet boreal forest peatland then applied data to a land surface model parametrized to the site (ELM-SPRUCE) to test if seasonality in photosynthetic parameters results in differences in simulated plant responses to elevated CO2 and temperature. We collected seasonal leaf-level gas exchange, nutrient content and stand allometric data from the field-layer community (i.e., Maianthemum trifolium (L.) Sloboda), understory shrubs (Rhododendron groenlandicum (Oeder) Kron and Judd, Chamaedaphne calyculata (L.) Moench., Kalmia polifolia Wangenh. and Vaccinium angustifolium Alton.) and overstory trees (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. and Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch). We found significant interspecific seasonal differences in specific leaf area, nitrogen content (by area; Na) and photosynthetic parameters (i.e., maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax25°C), electron transport (Jmax25°C) and dark respiration (Rd25°C)), but minimal correlation between foliar Na and Vcmax25°C, Jmax25°C or Rd25°C, which illustrates that nitrogen alone is not a good correlate for physiological processes such as Rubisco activity that can change seasonally in this system. ELM-SPRUCE was sensitive to the introduction of observed interspecific seasonality in Vcmax25°C, Jmax25°C and Rd25°C, leading to simulated enhancement of net primary production (NPP) using seasonally dynamic parameters as compared with use of static parameters. This pattern was particularly pronounced under simulations with higher temperature and elevated CO2, suggesting a key hypothesis to address with future empirical or observational studies as climate changes. Inclusion of species-specific seasonal photosynthetic parameters should improve estimates of boreal ecosystem-level NPP, especially if impacts of seasonal physiological ontogeny can be separated from seasonal thermal acclimation.