An effectiveness hierarchy of preventive interventions: neglected paradigm or self-evident truth?

The Middle-Out Perspective: an approach to formalise 'normal practice' in public health advocacy

AIMS

The middle-out perspective (MOP) provides a lens to examine how actors positioned between government (top) and individuals (bottom) act to promote broader societal changes from the middle-out (rather than the top-down or bottom-up). The MOP has been used in recent years in the fields of energy, climate change, and development studies. We argue that public health practitioners involved with advocacy activities and creating alliances to amplify health promotion actions will be familiar with the general MOP concept if not the formal name. The article aims to demonstrate this argument.

METHODS

This article introduces the MOP conceptual framework and customises it for a public health audience by positioning it among existing concepts and theories for actions within public health. Using two UK case studies (increasing signalised crossing times for pedestrians and the campaign for smoke-free legislation), we illustrate who middle actors are and what they can do to result in better public health outcomes.

RESULTS

These case studies show that involving a wider range of middle actors, including those not traditionally involved in improving the public's health, can broaden the range and reach of organisations and individuals involving in advocating for public health measures. They also demonstrate that middle actors are not neutral. They can be recruited to improve public health outcomes, but they may also be exploited by commercial interests to block healthy policies or even promote a health-diminishing agenda.

CONCLUSION

Using the MOP as a formal approach can help public health organisations and practitioners consider potential 'allies' from outside traditional health-related bodies or professions. Formal mapping can expand the range of who are considered potential middle actors for a particular public health issue. By applying the MOP, public health organisations and staff can enlist the additional leverage that is brought to bear by involving additional middle actors in improving the public's health.

Is fair representation good for children? effects of electoral partisan bias in state legislatures on policies affecting children's health and well-being

Increasing evidence suggests that state policies impact constituents' health, but political determinants of health and health inequities remain understudied. Using state and year fixed-effects models, we determined the extent to which changes in electoral partisan bias in lower chambers of U.S. state legislatures (i.e., discrepancy between statewide vote share and seat share) were followed by changes in five state policies affecting children and families (1980-2019) and a composite of safety net programs (1999-2018). We examined effects on each policy and whether the effect was modified when bias was accompanied by unified party control. Next, we determined whether the effect differed depending on which party it favored. Less bias resulted only in higher AFDC/TANF benefits. Both pro-Democratic and pro-Republican bias was followed by decreased AFDC/TANF benefits and increased Medicaid benefits. AFDC/TANF recipients, unemployment benefits, minimum wage, and pre-K-12 education spending increased following pro-Democratic bias and decreased following pro-Republican bias. Estimated effects on the composite measure of safety net policies were all close to null. Some effects were modulated by unified party control. Results demonstrate that increasing fairness in elections is not a panacea by itself for increasing generosity of programs affecting children's well-being. Indeed, bias can be somewhat beneficial for the expansiveness of some policies. Furthermore, with the exception of unemployment benefits and AFDC/TANF recipients, Democrats have not been using the additional power that comes with electoral bias to spend more on major programs that benefit children. Finally, after decades in which electoral bias was in Democrats' favor, bias has started to shift toward Republicans in the last decade. This trend forecasts more cuts in almost all the policies in this study, especially education and AFDC/TANF recipients. There is a need for more research and advocacy emphasis on the political determinants of social determinants of health, especially at the state level.

Diabetes risk and provision of diabetes prevention activities in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative, individual-level survey data

BACKGROUND

The global burden of diabetes is rising rapidly, yet there is little evidence on individual-level diabetes prevention activities undertaken by health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we describe the population at high risk of developing diabetes, estimate diabetes prevention activities, and explore sociodemographic variation in these activities across LMICs.

METHODS

We performed a pooled, cross-sectional analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative, population-based surveys conducted in 44 LMICs between October, 2009, and May, 2019. Our sample included all participants older than 25 years who did not have diabetes and were not pregnant. We defined the population at high risk of diabetes on the basis of either the presence of impaired fasting glucose (or prediabetes in countries with a haemoglobin A1c available) or overweight or obesity, consistent with the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Guidelines for type 2 diabetes management. We estimated the proportion of survey participants that were at high risk of developing diabetes based on this definition. We also estimated the proportion of the population at high risk that reported each of four fundamental diabetes prevention activities: physical activity counselling, weight loss counselling, dietary counselling, and blood glucose screening, overall and stratified by World Bank income group. Finally, we used multivariable Poisson regression models to evaluate associations between sociodemographic characteristics and these activities.

FINDINGS

The final pooled sample included 145 739 adults (86 269 [59·2%] of whom were female and 59 468 [40·4%] of whom were male) across 44 LMICs, of whom 59 308 (40·6% [95% CI 38·5-42·8]) were considered at high risk of diabetes (20·6% [19·8-21·5] in low-income countries, 38·0% [37·2-38·9] in lower-middle-income countries, and 57·5% [54·3-60·6] in upper-middle-income countries). Overall, the reach of diabetes prevention activities was low at 40·0% (38·6-41·4) for physical activity counselling, 37·1% (35·9-38·4) for weight loss counselling, 42·7% (41·6-43·7) for dietary counselling, and 37·1% (34·7-39·6) for blood glucose screening. Diabetes prevention varied widely by national-level wealth: 68·1% (64·6-71·4) of people at high risk of diabetes in low-income countries reported none of these activities, whereas 49·0% (47·4-50·7) at high risk in upper-middle-income countries reported at least three activities. Educational attainment was associated with diabetes prevention, with estimated increases in the predicted probability of receipt ranging between 6·5 (3·6-9·4) percentage points for dietary fruit and vegetable counselling and 21·3 (19·5-23·2) percentage points for blood glucose screening, among people with some secondary schooling compared with people with no formal education.

INTERPRETATION

A large proportion of individuals across LMICs are at high risk of diabetes but less than half reported receiving fundamental prevention activities overall, with the lowest receipt of these activities among people in low-income countries and with no formal education. These findings offer foundational evidence to inform future global targets for diabetes prevention and to strengthen policies and programmes to prevent continued increases in diabetes worldwide.

FUNDING

Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program and the EU's Research and Innovation programme Horizon 2020.

Understanding the role of the state in dietary public health policymaking: a critical scoping review

Despite evidence that dietary population health interventions are effective and widely accepted, they remain the topic of intense debate centring on the appropriate role of the state. This review sought to identify how the role of the state in intervening in individuals' food practices is conceptualized across a wide range of literatures. We searched 10 databases and 4 journals for texts that debated dietary population health interventions designed to affect individuals' health-affecting food practices. Two co-authors independently screened these texts for eligibility relative to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Thirty-five texts formed our final corpus. Through critical reflexive thematic analysis (TA), we generated 6 themes and 2 subthemes concerning choice, responsibility for health, balancing benefits and burdens of intervention, the use of evidence, fairness, and the legitimacy of the state's actions. Our analysis found that narratives that aim to prevent effective regulation are entrenched in academic literatures. Discourses that emphasized liberty and personal responsibility framed poor health as the result of 'lifestyle choices'. Utilitarian, cost-benefit rationales pervaded arguments about how to best balance the benefits and burdens of state intervention. Claims about fairness and freedom were used to evoke powerful common meanings, and evidence was used politically to bolster interests, particularly those of the food industry. This review identifies and critically analyses key arguments for and against population dietary public health policies. Our findings should motivate public health researchers and practitioners to avoid unreflexively embracing framings that draw on the languages and logics of free market economics.

An umbrella review of the acceptability of fiscal and pricing policies to reduce diet-related noncommunicable disease

CONTEXT

Poor diet has been implicated in a range of noncommunicable diseases. Fiscal and pricing policies (FPs) may offer a means by which consumption of food and non-alcoholic beverages with links to such diseases can be influenced to improve public health.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the acceptability of FPs to reduce diet-related noncommunicable disease, based on systematic review evidence.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychInfo, SCI, SSCI, Web of Science, Scopus, EconLit, the Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and the Campbell Collaboration Library were searched for relevant studies published between January 1, 1990 and June 2021.

DATA EXTRACTION

The studies included systematic reviews of diet-related FPs and: used real-world evidence; examined real or perceived barriers/facilitators; targeted the price of food or non-alcoholic beverages; and applied to entire populations within a jurisdiction. A total of 9996 unique relevant records were identified, which were augmented by a search of bibliographies and recommendations from an external expert advisory panel. Following screening, 4 systematic reviews remained.

DATA ANALYSIS

Quality appraisal was conducted using the AMSTAR 2 tool. A narrative synthesis was undertaken, with outcomes grouped according to the WHO-INTEGRATE criteria. The findings indicated a paucity of high-quality systematic review evidence and limited public support for the use of FPs to change dietary habits. This lack of support was related to a number of factors that included: their perceived potential to be regressive; a lack of transparency, ie, there was mistrust around the use of revenues raised; a paucity of evidence around health benefits; the deliberate choice of rates that were lower than those considered necessary to affect diet; and concerns about the potential of such FPs to harm economic outcomes such as employment.

CONCLUSION

The findings underscore the need for high-quality systematic review evidence on this topic, and the importance of responding to public concerns and putting in place mechanisms to address these when implementing FPs. This study was funded by Safefood [02A-2020].

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42021274454.

Evaluation of the introduction of a healthy food and drink policy in 13 community recreation centres on the healthiness and nutrient content of customer purchases and business outcomes: An observational study

INTRODUCTION

This observational study assessed the introduction of a comprehensive healthy food and drink policy across 13 community organisation managed aquatic and recreation centres in Victoria, Australia, and the associated changes on business outcomes, and the healthiness of purchases. The policy, based on state government guidelines, mandated that food and drink availability be based on healthiness classification: 'red' (limit) <10%, and 'green' (best choice) >50%, and the remainder 'amber' (choose carefully).

METHODS

Six years of monthly sales data were split into three periods, prior to (1/01/2013-31/12/2014), during (1/01/2015-31/12/2016) and post (1/1/2017-31/12/2018), policy implementation. Using point-of-sale data, food and drink nutrient content, and state guidelines, items were classified as 'red'/'amber'/'green'. Linear models with Newey West standard errors were fitted to compare the mean value of outcomes between post- to pre-policy implementation periods, for each outcome and centre; and were pooled using random effect meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Comparing post- to pre-policy implementation periods, total food sales did not change (mean percentage difference: -3.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) -21% to 14%), though total drink sales declined -27% (CI -37% to -17%). The mean percentage of 'red' foods sold declined by -15% (CI -22% to -7.7%), 'amber' food sales increased 11% (CI 5.5% to 16%). 'Green' food sales did not change (3.3%, CI -1.4% to 8.0%). The mean percentage of 'red' drinks sold declined -37% (CI -43% to -31%), 'amber' and 'green' drink sales increased by 8.8% (CI 3.6% to 14%) and 28% (CI 23% to 33%), respectively. The energy density and sugar content (percentage of total weight/volume) of both food and drinks decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has shown that the implementation of a policy to improve the health of retail food environments can result in a shift towards healthier purchases. Sales revenue from foods did not decline, though revenue from drinks did, indicating future research needs to explore mitigation of this.

Evolution of 'whole institution' approaches to improving health in tertiary education settings: a critical scoping review

In recent decades, 'whole school' approaches to improving health have gained traction, based on settings-based health promotion understandings which view a setting, its actors and processes as an integrated 'whole' system with multiple intervention opportunities. Much less is known about 'whole institution' approaches to improving health in tertiary education settings. We conducted a scoping review to describe both empirical and non-empirical (e.g. websites) publications relating to 'whole settings', 'complex systems' and 'participatory'/'action' approaches to improving the health of students and staff within tertiary education settings. English-language publications were identified by searching five academic and four grey literature databases and via the reference lists of studies read for eligibility. We identified 101 publications with marked UK overrepresentation. Since the 1970s, publications have increased, spanning a gradual shift in focus from 'aspirational' to 'conceptual' to 'evaluative'. Terminology is geographically siloed (e.g., 'healthy university' (UK), 'healthy campus' (USA)). Publications tend to focus on 'health' generally rather than specific health dimensions (e.g. diet). Policies, arguably crucial for cascading systemic change, were not the most frequently implemented intervention elements. We conclude that, despite the field's evolution, key questions (e.g., insights into who needs to do what, with whom, where and when; or efficacy) remain unanswered.

An umbrella review of the effectiveness of fiscal and pricing policies on food and non-alcoholic beverages to improve health

Poor quality diets represent major risk factors for the global burden of disease. Modeling studies indicate a potential for diet-related fiscal and pricing policies (FPs) to improve health. There is real-world evidence (RWE) that such policies can change behavior; however, the evidence regarding health is less clear. We conducted an umbrella review of the effectiveness of FPs on food and non-alcoholic beverages in influencing health or intermediate outcomes like consumption. We considered FPs applied to an entire population within a jurisdiction and included four systematic reviews in our final sample. Quality appraisal, an examination of excluded reviews, and a literature review of recent primary studies assessed the robustness of our results. Taxes and, to some extent, subsidies are effective in changing consumption of taxed/subsidized items; however, substitution is likely to occur. There is a lack of RWE supporting the effectiveness of FPs in improving health but this does not mean that they are ineffective. FPs may be important for improving health but their design is critical. Poorly designed FPs may fail to improve health and could reduce support for such policies or be used to support their repeal. More high-quality RWE on the impact of FPs on health is needed.

Nudging Interventions on Alcohol and Tobacco Consumption in Adults: A Scoping Review of the Literature

Background: The World Health Organization identified alcohol and tobacco consumption as the risk factors with a greater attributable burden and number of deaths related to non-communicable diseases. A promising technique aimed to modify behavioral risk factors by redesigning the elements influencing the choice of people is nudging. Methodology: A scoping review of the literature was performed to map the literature evidence investigating the use of nudging for tobacco and alcohol consumption prevention and/or control in adults. Results: A total of 20 studies were included. The identified nudging categories were increasing salience of information or incentives (IS), default choices (DF), and providing feedback (PF). Almost three-quarters of the studies implementing IS and half of those implementing PF reported a success. Three-quarters of the studies using IS in conjunction with other interventions reported a success whereas more than half of the those with IS alone reported a success. The PF strategy performed better in multi-component interventions targeting alcohol consumption. Only one DF mono-component study addressing alcohol consumption reported a success. Conclusions: To achieve a higher impact, nudging should be integrated into comprehensive prevention policy frameworks, with dedicated education sessions for health professionals. In conclusion, nudge strategies for tobacco and alcohol consumption prevention in adults show promising results. Further research is needed to investigate the use of nudge strategies in socio-economically diverse groups and in young populations.

Energy labelling of alcoholic drinks: An important or inconsequential obesity policy?

Alcohol is calorie dense, but unlike food products, alcoholic drinks tend to be exempt from nutritional labelling laws that require energy content information to be displayed on packaging or at point of purchase. This review provides a perspective on the likely efficacy of alcoholic drink energy labelling as a public health policy to reduce obesity and discusses key questions to be addressed by future research. First, the contribution that alcohol makes to population level daily energy intake and obesity is outlined. Next, consumer need for alcohol energy labelling and the potential impacts on both consumer and industry behavior are discussed. Pathways and mechanisms by which energy labelling of alcoholic drinks could reduce obesity are considered, as well as possible unintended consequences of alcoholic drink energy labelling. Would widespread energy labelling of alcoholic drinks reduce obesity? The unclear effect that alcohol has on population level obesity, the modest contribution calories from alcohol make to daily energy intake and limited impact nutritional labelling policies tend to have on behavior, suggest alcohol energy labelling may have limited impact on population obesity prevalence as a standalone policy. However, there are a number of questions that will need to be answered by future research to make definitive conclusions on the potential for alcohol energy labelling policies to reduce obesity.

Burden of diabetes and hyperglycaemia in adults in the Americas, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

High prevalence of diabetes has been reported in the Americas, but no comprehensive analysis of diabetes burden and related factors for the region is available. We aimed to describe the burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and that of hyperglycaemia in the Americas from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates from GBD 2019 to evaluate the burden of diabetes in adults aged 20 years or older and high fasting plasma glucose in adults aged 25 years or older in the 39 countries and territories of the six regions in the Americas from 1990 to 2019. The main source to estimate the mortality attributable to diabetes and to chronic kidney disease due to diabetes was vital registration. Mortality due to overall diabetes (ie, diabetes and diabetes due to chronic kidney disease) was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as the number of deaths multiplied by standard life expectancy at the age that the death occurred, years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated based on the prevalence and severity of complications of diabetes. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as a sum of YLDs and YLLs. We assessed the association of diabetes burden with the level of development of a country (according to the Socio-demographic Index), health-care access and quality (estimated with the Healthcare Access and Quality Index), and diabetes prevalence. We also calculated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of diabetes burden due to each of its risk factors. We report the 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

In 2019, an estimated total of 409 000 (95% uncertainty interval 373 000-443 000) adults aged 20 years or older in the Americas died from diabetes, which represented 5·9% of all deaths. Diabetes was responsible for 2266 (1930-2649) crude DALYs per 100 000 adults in the Americas, and high fasting plasma glucose for 4401 DALYs (3685-5265) per 100 000 adults, with large variation across regions. DALYs were mostly due to type 2 diabetes and distribution was heterogeneous, being highest in central Latin America and the Caribbean and lowest in high-income North America and southern Latin America. Between 1990 and 2019, age-standardised DALYs due to type 2 diabetes increased 27·4% (22·0-32·5). This increase was particularly high in Andean Latin America and high-income North America. Burden for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes across countries increased with higher diabetes prevalence and decreased with greater Socio-demographic and Healthcare Access and Quality Indices. Main risk factors for the burden were high BMI, with a PAF of 63·2% and dietary risks, with a PAF of 27·5%. The fraction of burden due to disability has increased since 1990 and now represents nearly half of the overall burden in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of diabetes in the Americas is large, increasing, heterogeneous, and expanding. To confront the rising burden, population-based interventions aimed to reduce type 2 diabetes risk and strengthening health systems to provide effective and cost-efficient care for those affected are mandatory.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Why is health improvement policy so difficult to secure?

Many governments seek to improve population health, and some seek to reduce health inequalities. Yet, there remains a large gap between their policy statements and actual outcomes. Perennial questions in public health research include: why is this gap so large, why does it endure, and what can be done to close it? This essay uses political science and policy studies insights to address these questions, focusing on the distinctive issues that relate to (1) broad aims like 'prevention', (2) specific strategies for health improvement, or (3) new events. On the one hand, the idea of 'prevention' has widespread appeal, when governments think they can save money or reduce inequalities by preventing problems happening or worsening. While health protection seeks to inoculate populations against communicable diseases, health improvement strategies, including 'Health in All Policies' (HiAP), primarily address non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Further, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the unequal spread of ill health, showing that preventive health ideas should be at the core of policy. On the other hand, there is a large gap between rhetorical and substantive commitment to prevention, a continuous HiAP implementation gap, and a tendency for COVID-19 health protection to overshadow health improvement. Explaining each problem clearly helps to identify the factors that generally undermine prevention policies and those specific to more detailed strategies like HiAP or events like COVID-19. We do not prioritise leadership or 'political will' as the policymaking problem. Instead, we identify the systemic factors that apply to even the most sincere, competent, and energetic policymakers. Health improvement policy is typically undermined by a lack of: clarity about what prevention means in practice; congruity between the prevention agenda (emphasising the need for major change to policy and policymaking) and routine government business; and, capacity to overcome obstacles to policy change.

Ripple effects mapping: capturing the wider impacts of systems change efforts in public health

BACKGROUND

Systems approaches are currently being advocated and implemented to address complex challenges in Public Health. These approaches work by bringing multi-sectoral stakeholders together to develop a collective understanding of the system, and then to identify places where they can leverage change across the system. Systems approaches are unpredictable, where cause-and-effect cannot always be disentangled, and unintended consequences - positive and negative - frequently arise. Evaluating such approaches is difficult and new methods are warranted.

METHODS

Ripple Effects Mapping (REM) is a qualitative method which can capture the wider impacts, and adaptive nature, of a systems approach. Using a case study example from the evaluation of a physical activity-orientated systems approach in Gloucestershire, we: a) introduce the adapted REM method; b) describe how REM was applied in the example; c) explain how REM outputs were analysed; d) provide examples of how REM outputs were used; and e) describe the strengths, limitations, and future uses of REM based on our reflections.

RESULTS

Ripple Effects Mapping is a participatory method that requires the active input of programme stakeholders in data gathering workshops. It produces visual outputs (i.e., maps) of the programme activities and impacts, which are mapped along a timeline to understand the temporal dimension of systems change efforts. The REM outputs from our example were created over several iterations, with data collected every 3-4 months, to build a picture of activities and impacts that have continued or ceased. Workshops took place both in person and online. An inductive content analysis was undertaken to describe and quantify the patterns within the REM outputs. Detailed guidance related to the preparation, delivery, and analysis of REM are included in this paper.

CONCLUSION

REM may help to advance our understanding and evaluation of complex systems approaches, especially within the field of Public Health. We therefore invite other researchers, practitioners and policymakers to use REM and continuously evolve the method to enhance its application and practical utility.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study

INTRODUCTION

The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates.

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

A Critique of National Physical Activity Policy in Oman Using 3 Established Policy Frameworks

BACKGROUND

This paper aimed to assess the development process, content, and early implementation of Oman's national physical activity plan of action to identify strengths and areas for improvement.

METHODS

Data were extracted from 4 documents: national noncommunicable diseases policy, physical activity plan of action, and 2 World Health Organization Mission Reports. Three policy frameworks and approaches (physical activity content analysis grid, health-enhancing physical activity policy audit tool, and policy cube approach for diet-related noncommunicable diseases) were used.

RESULTS

The findings demonstrated that policymakers engaged a broad range of sectors in developing a national plan. It aligned with many of the elements from the 3 policy frameworks (ie, multisectoral approach, political commitment/leadership, identification of national goals and targets, time frame for implementation). The main gaps included the lack of a specified sustainable funding mechanism, systems for monitoring progress, and an emphasis on general interventions, with limited focus on specific target groups.

CONCLUSION

A range of sectors were engaged in the development of Oman's national physical activity plan of action, with strong political commitment and using global guidance and local evidence. Establishing a strong accountability framework, including a clear financing mechanism, is critical for Oman to meet its target for a 10% relative reduction in physical inactivity by 2025.

Cancer mortality 1981-2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

In many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.

METHODS

Using high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.

RESULTS

Cancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.

CONCLUSION

Current relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

A prospective population-based multicentre study on the impact of maternal body mass index on adverse pregnancy outcomes: Focus on normal weight

Background

Maternal body mass index (BMI) below or above the reference interval (18.5–24.9 kg/m²) is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Whether BMI exerts an effect within the reference interval is unclear. Therefore, we assessed the association between adverse pregnancy outcomes and BMI, in particular within the reference interval, in a general unselected pregnant population.

Methods

Data was extracted from a prospective population-based multicentre cohort (Risk Estimation for PrEgnancy Complications to provide Tailored care (RESPECT) study) conducted between December 2012 to January 2014. BMI was studied in categories (I: <18.5, II: 18.5–19.9, III: 20.0–22.9, IV: 23.0–24.9, V: 25.0–27.4, VI: 27.5–29.9, VII: >30.0 kg/m²) and as a continuous variable within the reference interval. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were defined as composite endpoints for maternal, neonatal or any pregnancy complication, and for adverse pregnancy outcomes individually. Linear trends were assessed using linear-by-linear association analysis and (adjusted) relative risks by regression analysis.

Results

The median BMI of the 3671 included women was 23.2 kg/m² (IQR 21.1–26.2). Adverse pregnancy outcomes were reported in 1256 (34.2%). Linear associations were observed between BMI categories and all three composite endpoints, and individually for pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH), preeclampsia, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), large-for-gestational-age (LGA) neonates; but not for small-for-gestational-age neonates and preterm birth. Within the reference interval, BMI was associated with the composite maternal endpoint, PIH, GDM and LGA, with adjusted relative risks of 1.15 (95%CI 1.06–1.26), 1.12 (95%CI 1.00–1.26), 1.31 (95%CI 1.11–1.55) and 1.09 (95%CI 1.01–1.17).

Conclusions

Graded increase in maternal BMI appears to be an indicator of risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes even among women with a BMI within the reference interval. The extent to which BMI directly contributes to the increased risk in this group should be evaluated in order to determine strategies most valuable for promoting safety and long-term health for mothers and their offspring.

The cumulation of ill health and low agency in socially excluded city dwellers in the Netherlands: how to better identify high-risk/high-need population segments with public health survey data

Background

Population segmentation and risk stratification are important strategies for allocating resources in public health, health care and social care. Social exclusion, which is defined as the cumulation of disadvantages in social, economic, cultural and political domains, is associated with an increased risk of health problems, low agency, and as a consequence, a higher need for health and social care. The aim of this study is to test social exclusion against traditional social stratifiers to identify high-risk/high-need population segments.

Methods

We used data from 33,285 adults from the 2016 Public Health Monitor of four major cities in the Netherlands. To identify at-risk populations for cardiovascular risk, cancer, low self-rated health, anxiety and depression symptoms, and low personal control, we compared relative risks (RR) and population attributable fractions (PAF) for social exclusion, which was measured with the Social Exclusion Index for Health Surveys (SEI-HS), and four traditional social stratifiers, namely, education, income, labour market position and migration background.

Results

The analyses showed significant associations of social exclusion with all the health indicators and personal control. Particular strong RRs were found for anxiety and depression symptoms (7.95) and low personal control (6.36), with corresponding PAFs of 42 and 35%, respectively. Social exclusion was significantly better at identifying population segments with high anxiety and depression symptoms and low personal control than were the four traditional stratifiers, while the two approaches were similar at identifying other health problems. The combination of social exclusion with a low labour market position (19.5% of the adult population) captured 67% of the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms and 60% of the prevalence of low personal control, as well as substantial proportions of the other health indicators.

Conclusions

This study shows that the SEI-HS is a powerful tool for identifying high-risk/high-need population segments in which not only ill health is concentrated, as is the case with traditional social stratifiers, but also a high prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms and low personal control are present, in addition to an accumulation of social problems. These findings have implications for health care practice, public health and social interventions in large cities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-021-01471-w.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

METHODS

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

RESULTS

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil

Background

Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.

Methods

We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.

Results

A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.

Conclusions

Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.

The retail food environment and its association with body mass index in Mexico

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Mexico has one of the highest rates of obesity and overweight worldwide, affecting 75% of the population. The country has experienced a dietary and food retail transition involving increased availability of high-calorie-dense foods and beverages. This study aimed to assess the relationship between the retail food environment and body mass index (BMI) in Mexico.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Geographical and food outlet data were obtained from official statistics; anthropometric measurements and socioeconomic characteristics of adult participants (N = 22,219) came from the nationally representative 2012 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT). Densities (store count/census tract area (CTA)) of convenience stores, restaurants, fast-food restaurants, supermarkets and fruit and vegetable stores were calculated. The association of retail food environment variables, sociodemographic data and BMI was tested using multilevel linear regression models.

RESULTS

Convenience store density was high (mean (SD) = 50.0 (36.9)/CTA) compared with other food outlets in Mexico. A unit increase in density of convenience stores was associated with a 0.003 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.0006, 0.005, p = 0.011) increase in BMI, equivalent to 0.34 kg extra weight for an adult 1.60 m tall for every additional 10% store density increase (number of convenience stores per CTA (km2)). Metropolitan areas showed the highest density of food outlet concentration and the highest associations with BMI (β = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.004-0.01, p < 0.001). A 10% store density increase in these areas would represent a 1 kg increase in weight for an adult 1.60 m tall.

CONCLUSIONS

Convenience store density was associated with higher mean BMI in Mexican adults. An excessive convenience store availability, that offers unhealthy food options, coupled with low access to healthy food resources or stores retailing healthy food, including fruits and vegetables, may increase the risk of higher BMI. This is the first study to assess the association of the retail food environment and BMI at a national level in Mexico.

Type 2 Diabetes and Cancer: An Umbrella Review of Observational and Mendelian Randomization Studies

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been associated with an increased risk of developing several common cancers, but it is unclear whether this association is causal. We aimed to summarize the evidence on T2DM and cancer and evaluate the validity of associations from both observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies.

METHODS

We performed an umbrella review of the evidence across meta-analyses of observational studies that examined associations of T2DM with risk of developing or dying from site-specific cancers, and MR studies that explored the potential causal association of T2DM and associated biomarkers with cancer risk.

RESULTS

We identified eligible observational meta-analyses that assessed associations between T2DM and cancer incidence for 18 cancer sites, cancer mortality for seven sites, and cancer incidence or mortality for four sites. Positive associations between T2DM and six cancers reached strong or highly suggestive evidence. We found eight MR studies assessing the association of genetically predicted T2DM and seven and eight studies assessing the association of genetically predicted fasting insulin or fasting glucose concentrations, respectively, upon site-specific cancers. Positive associations were found between genetically predicted T2DM and fasting insulin and risk of six cancers. There was no association between genetically predicted fasting plasma glucose and cancer except for squamous cell lung carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

We found robust observational evidence for the association between T2DM and colorectal, hepatocellular, gallbladder, breast, endometrial, and pancreatic cancers.

IMPACT

Potential causal associations were identified for genetically predicted T2DM and fasting insulin concentrations and risk of endometrial, pancreas, kidney, breast, lung, and cervical cancers.

Framing action to reduce health inequalities: what is argued for through use of the 'upstream-downstream' metaphor?

BACKGROUND

Public health insights struggle to compete with dominant ideas which frame health inequalities as a problem of individual behaviour. There is consequently a need to critically reflect upon and question the effectiveness of different strategies for framing and communicating key insights. Taking the example of the 'upstream-downstream' metaphor, this literature review contributes to a necessary first step by asking what exactly is being argued for through its use.

METHODS

An iterative search strategy was used to identify peer-reviewed articles which could contribute to the review question. A discourse analysis framework informed data extraction and synthesis of 24 articles. Articles were subsequently categorized into groups which reflected the different uses of the metaphor identified.

RESULTS

All authors used the metaphor to promote a particular causal understanding of health inequalities, leading some to recommend policies and programmes, and others to focus on implementation processes. This seemingly simple metaphor has evolved beyond differentiating 'upstream' from 'downstream' determinants, to communicate an ambitious politically engaged agenda for change.

CONCLUSIONS

The metaphor is not without its critics and in light of the complexity of the arguments encapsulated in its use, work is needed to establish if it can, and does, resonate as intended with wider audiences.

The Action Scales Model: A conceptual tool to identify key points for action within complex adaptive systems

BACKGROUND

Systems thinking is integral to working effectively within complex systems, such as those which drive the current population levels of overweight and obesity. It is increasingly recognised that a systems approach - which corrals public, private, voluntary and community sector organisations to make their actions and efforts coherent - is necessary to address the complex drivers of obesity. Identifying, implementing and evaluating actions within complex adaptive systems is challenging, and may differ from previous approaches used in public health.

METHODS

Within this conceptual article, we present the Action Scales Model (ASM). The ASM is a simple tool to help policymakers, practitioners and evaluators to conceptualise, identify and appraise actions within complex adaptive systems. We developed this model using our collective expertise and experience in working with local government authority stakeholders on the Public Health England Whole Systems Obesity programme. It aligns with, and expands upon, previous models such as the Intervention Level Framework, the Iceberg Model and Donella Meadows' 12 places to intervene within a system.

RESULTS

The ASM describes four levels (synonymous with leverage points) to intervene within a system, with deeper levels providing greater potential for changing how the system functions. Levels include events, structures, goals and beliefs. We also present how the ASM can be used to support practice and policy, and finish by highlighting its utility as an evaluative aid.

DISCUSSION

This practical tool was designed to support those working at the front line of systems change efforts, and while we use the population prevalence of obesity as an outcome of a complex adaptive system, the ASM and the associated principles can be applied to other issues. We hope that the ASM encourages people to think differently about the systems that they work within and to identify new and potentially more impactful opportunities to leverage change.

Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users

BACKGROUND

Local authorities in England commission the NHS Health Check programme to invite everyone aged 40-74 years without pre-existing conditions for risk assessment and eventual intervention, if needed. However, the programme's effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity impact remain uncertain.

AIM

To develop a validated open-access flexible web-based model that enables local commissioners to quantify the cost-effectiveness and potential for equitable population health gain of the NHS Health Check programme.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were as follows: (1) co-produce with stakeholders the desirable features of the user-friendly model; (2) update the evidence base to support model and scenario development; (3) further develop our computational model to allow for developments and changes to the NHS Health Check programme and the diseases it addresses; (4) assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity of alternative strategies for implementation to illustrate the use of the tool; and (5) propose a sustainability and implementation plan to deploy our user-friendly computational model at the local level.

DESIGN

Co-production workshops surveying the best-performing local authorities and a systematic literature review of strategies to increase uptake of screening programmes informed model use and development. We then co-produced the workHORSE (working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) model to estimate the health, economic and equity impact of different NHS Health Check programme implementations, using illustrative-use cases.

SETTING

Local authorities in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Stakeholders from local authorities, Public Health England, the NHS, the British Heart Foundation, academia and other organisations participated in the workshops. For the local authorities survey, we invited 16 of the best-performing local authorities in England.

INTERVENTIONS

The user interface allows users to vary key parameters that represent programme activities (i.e. invitation, uptake, prescriptions and referrals). Scenarios can be compared with each other.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Disease cases and case-years prevented or postponed, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, net monetary benefit and change in slope index of inequality.

RESULTS

The survey of best-performing local authorities revealed a diversity of effective approaches to maximise the coverage and uptake of NHS Health Check programme, with no distinct 'best buy'. The umbrella literature review identified a range of effective single interventions. However, these generally need to be combined to maximally improve uptake and health gains. A validated dynamic, stochastic microsimulation model, built on robust epidemiology, enabled service options analysis. Analyses of three contrasting illustrative cases estimated the health, economic and equity impact of optimising the Health Checks, and the added value of obtaining detailed local data. Optimising the programme in Liverpool can become cost-effective and equitable, but simply changing the invitation method will require other programme changes to improve its performance. Detailed data inputs can benefit local analysis.

LIMITATIONS

Although the approach is extremely flexible, it is complex and requires substantial amounts of data, alongside expertise to both maintain and run.

CONCLUSIONS

Our project showed that the workHORSE model could be used to estimate the health, economic and equity impact comprehensively at local authority level. It has the potential for further development as a commissioning tool and to stimulate broader discussions on the role of these tools in real-world decision-making.

FUTURE WORK

Future work should focus on improving user interactions with the model, modelling simulation standards, and adapting workHORSE for evaluation, design and implementation support.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019132087.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 35. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in underweight and obesity in 5-year-old children, 2011-2018: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To explore trends in prevalence and socioeconomic inequalities in underweight and obesity in 5-year-old schoolchildren in Scotland between 2011/2012 and 2017/2018.

DESIGN

A population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Local authority primary schools in Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

373 189 5-year-old schoolchildren in Scotland between 2011/2012 and 2017/2018.

METHODOLOGY

Trends in prevalence and inequalities in underweight and obesity were examined across seven school years (2011/2012-2017/2018) for 373 189 5-year-old schoolchildren in Scotland. Body mass index SD scores were calculated, and epidemiological cut-offs relative to the UK 1990 references categorised underweight and obesity. Slope/relative indices of inequality (SII/RII) were calculated for underweight and obesity by school year using the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity rose slightly overall during the study period (9.8% in 2011/2012; 10.1% in 2017/2018). However, this masked a widening of inequalities, with children from the most deprived areas experiencing a greater risk of obesity in 2017/2018 than in 2011/2012 (risk ratio=1.14, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.25) compared with an unchanged risk in children from the least deprived areas (risk ratio=0.95, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.11). SII and RII indicate widening inequalities for obesity, with RII rising from 1.95 (95% CI 1.71 to 2.22) in 2011/2012 to 2.22 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.56) in 2017/2018. The prevalence of underweight was consistently low (compared with the UK 1990 references) and remained unchanged over the study period (1.2% in 2011/2012; 1.1% in 2017/2018), with no consistent evidence of social patterning over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in obesity in schoolchildren in Scotland are large and have widened from 2011, despite only a slight rise in overall prevalence. In contrast there has been little change in underweight prevalence or inequalities during the study period. Extra resources for policy implementation and measures which do not widen inequalities and focus on reaching the most deprived children are required to tackle the high prevalence and growing inequalities in childhood obesity in Scotland.

A secondary analysis of the childhood obesity prevention Cochrane Review through a wider determinants of health lens: implications for research funders, researchers, policymakers and practitioners

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are often regarded as the gold standard of evidence, and subsequently go on to inform policymaking. Cochrane Reviews synthesise this type of evidence to create recommendations for practice, policy, and future research. Here, we critically appraise the RCTs included in the childhood obesity prevention Cochrane Review to understand the focus of these interventions when examined through a wider determinants of health (WDoH) lens.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of the interventions included in the Cochrane Review on "Interventions for Preventing Obesity in Children", published since 1993. All 153 RCTs were independently coded by two authors against the WDoH model using an adaptive framework synthesis approach. We used aspects of the Action Mapping Tool from Public Health England to facilitate our coding and to visualise our findings against the 226 perceived causes of obesity.

RESULTS

The proportion of interventions which targeted downstream (e.g. individual and family behaviours) as opposed to upstream (e.g. infrastructure, environmental, policy) determinants has not changed over time (from 1993 to 2015), with most intervention efforts (57.9%) aiming to change individual lifestyle factors via education-based approaches. Almost half of the interventions (45%) targeted two or more levels of the WDoH. Where interventions targeted some of the wider determinants, this was often achieved via upskilling teachers to deliver educational content to children. No notable difference in design or implementation was observed between interventions targeting children of varying ages (0-5 years, 6-12 years, 13-18 years).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights that interventions, evaluated via RCTs, have persisted to focus on downstream, individualistic determinants of obesity over the last 25 years, despite the step change in our understanding of its complex aetiology. We hope that the findings from our analysis will challenge research funders, researchers, policymakers and practitioners to reflect upon, and critique, the evidence-based paradigm in which we operate, and call for a shift in focus of new evidence which better accounts for the complexity of obesity.

Food choice motives and the nutritional quality of diet during the COVID-19 lockdown in France

To limit the transmission of COVID-19, nationwide lockdown was imposed in France between March, 17th and May 10th, 2020. This disruption in individuals' daily routines likely altered food consumption habits. We examined how changes in food choice motives related to changes in nutritional quality during the lockdown compared to before. A convenience sample of 938 French adults completed online questionnaires on the Qualtrics platform at the end of April 2020. Participants were retrospectively asked about their food choice motives and food consumption during the month before and in the first month of the lockdown. The importance of nine food choice motives was assessed: health, convenience, sensory appeal, natural content, ethical concern, weight control, mood, familiarity, and price, scoring from 1 to 4. Food intakes were recorded using a food frequency questionnaire including 110 foods, 12 non-alcoholic beverages and 4 alcoholic beverages. Adherence to the French dietary recommendations before and during the lockdown was estimated using the simplified PNNS-GS2, scoring from -17 to 11.5. The nutritional quality of diet was lower during the lockdown compared to before (-0.32, SD 2.28, p < 0.001). Food choice motives significantly changed and an increase in the importance of weight control was associated with increased nutritional quality (β = 0.89, p < 0.001, partial η2 = 0.032), whereas an increase in the importance of mood was associated with decreased nutritional quality (β = -0.43, p = 0.021, partial η2 = 0.006). The lockdown period in France was related to a decrease in nutritional quality of diet on average, which could be partly explained by changes in food choice motives. The lockdown was indeed related to modification of food choice motives, notably with an increase of mood as a food choice motive for 48% of the participants, but also with an increase of health (26%), ethical concern (21%) and natural content (19%) suggesting a growing awareness of the importance of sustainable food choices in some participants.

Socioeconomic status and cardiovascular health in the COVID-19 pandemic

The goals of this review are to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic (SE) status on the general health and cardiovascular health of individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic and also discuss the measures to address disparity. SE status is a strong predictor of premature morbidity and mortality within general health. A lower SE status also has implications of increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and poorer CVD risk factor profiles. CVD comorbidity is associated with a higher case severity and mortality rate from COVID-19, with both CVD and COVID-19 sharing important risk factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected people of a lower SE status and of ethnic minority group, who in the most deprived regions are suffering double the mortality rate of the least deprived. The acute stress, economic recession and quarantine restrictions in the wake of COVID-19 are also predicted to cause a decline in mental health. This could pose substantial increase to CVD incidence, particularly with acute pathologies such as stroke, acute coronary syndrome and cardiogenic shock among lower SE status individuals and vulnerable elderly populations. Efforts to tackle SE status and CVD may aid in reducing avoidable deaths. The implementation of 'upstream' interventions and policies demonstrates promise in achieving the greatest population impact, aiming to protect and empower individuals. Specific measures may involve risk factor targeting restrictions on the availability and advertisement of tobacco, alcohol and high-fat and salt content food, and targeting SE disparity with healthy and secure workplaces.

Non-visible disease, the hidden disruptive experiences of chronic illness in adversity

Objective: This study's principal aim was to describe the lived reality for people with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic health conditions, who live in economically deprived neighbourhoods in a city in North West England. Methodology: This is a qualitative, exploratory study based on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with participants experiencing compromised cardiovascular health, conducted in August 2017. The study sample comprised 14 adults (3 females) aged 54 to 76. Thematic analysis was used for data analysis, and the biographical disruption concept was used as theoretical reference to explore the results. Wider health inequalities literature supplemented the individual experiences of chronic illness. Results: Four main themes were developed from the data: (1) chronic illness as a disruptive experience; (2) struggling for money; (3) lifestyle and health risks; and (4) reflections on current inequalities. The varied nature of participants' narratives about their chronic illness indicated that the experience of biographical disruption depends on the wider socioeconomic and cultural factors of the individual. Discussion: This study suggests that biographical disruption theory combined with health inequalities contexts highlights the role of hidden suffering and enhances the understanding of chronic illness experiences and thus informs clinical management, service and public health planning.

Effects of Labelling and Increasing the Proportion of Lower-Energy Density Products on Online Food Shopping: A Randomised Control Trial in High- and Low-Socioeconomic Position Participants

Reducing the energy density (ED) of product selections made during online supermarket food shopping has potential to decrease energy intake. Yet it is unclear which types of intervention are likely to be most effective and equitable. We recruited 899 UK adults of lower and higher socioeconomic position (SEP) who completed a shopping task in an online experimental supermarket. Participants were randomised in a 2 × 2 between-subjects design to test the effects of two interventions on the ED of shopping basket selections: labelling lower-ED products as healthier choices and increasing the relative availability of lower-ED products within a range (referred to as proportion). Labelling of lower-ED products resulted in a small but significant decrease (−4.2 kcal/100 g, 95% CIs −7.8 to −0.6) in the ED of the shopping basket. Increasing the proportion of lower-ED products significantly decreased the ED of the shopping basket (−17 kcal/100 g, 95% CIs −21 to −14). There was no evidence that the effect of either intervention was moderated by SEP. Thus, both types of intervention decreased the ED of foods selected in an online experimental supermarket. There was no evidence that the effectiveness of either intervention differed in people of lower vs. higher SEP.

The burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil: a global burden of disease study 2017

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017 database permits an up-to-date evaluation of the frequency and burden of diabetes at the state level in Brazil and by type of diabetes. The objective of this report is to describe, using these updated GBD data, the current and projected future burden of diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, as well as its variation over time and space.

Methods

We derived all estimates using the GBD 2016 and 2017 databases to characterize disease burden related to diabetes and hyperglycemia in Brazil, from 1990 to 2040, using standard GBD methodologies.

Results

The overall estimated prevalence of diabetes in Brazil in 2017 was 4.4% (95%UI 4.0–4.9%), with 4.0% of those with diabetes being identified as having type 1 disease. While the crude prevalence of type 1 disease has remained relatively stable from 1990, type 2 prevalence has increased 30% for males and 26% for females. In 2017, approximately 3.3% of all disability-adjusted life years lost were due to diabetes and 5.9% to hyperglycemia. Diabetes prevalence and mortality were highest in the Northeast region and growing fastest in the North, Northeast, and Center-West regions. Over this period, despite a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes, crude overall burden due to hyperglycemia has increased 19%, with population aging being a main cause for this rise. Cardiovascular diseases, responsible for 38.3% of this burden in 1990, caused only 25.9% of it in 2017, with premature mortality attributed directly to diabetes causing 31.6% of the 2017 burden. Future projections suggest that the diabetes mortality burden will increase 144% by 2040, more than twice the expected increase in crude disease burden overall (54%). By 2040, diabetes is projected to be Brazil’s third leading cause of death and hyperglycemia its third leading risk factor, in terms of deaths.

Conclusions

The disease burden in Brazil attributable to diabetes and hyperglycemia, already large, is predicted by GBD estimates to more than double to 2040. Strong actions by the Ministry of Health are necessary to counterbalance the major deleterious effects of population aging.

Simulations of future cardiometabolic disease and life expectancy under counterfactual obesity reduction scenarios

•

HIAs provide simulations of future disease levels related to an array of obesity scenarios.

•

In a relatively lean population, obesity still contribute to a substantial reduction in life expectancy.

•

Large reductions in diabetes and multi-morbidity is estimated as an effect of reducing obesity.

•

Incremental increase in future stroke and IHD cases is expected.

The aim of this study was to provide decision makers with an assessment of potential future health effects of interventions against overweight and obesity (OWOB). By means of the DYNAMO-HIA tool we conducted a health impact assessment simulating future prevented disease (ischemic heart disease (IHD), diabetes, stroke, and multi morbidity) incidence, prevalence and life expectancy (LE) related to a scenario where OWOB is reduced by 25% and a scenario where obesity is eliminated. The study covered projected number of persons living in Copenhagen, Denmark during year 2014–2040 (n 2040 = 742,129). Reducing the proportion of men/women with OWOB with 25% will increase population LE by 2.4/1.2 months and at the same time decrease LE with diabetes by 3.1/2.2 months. As a result of eliminating obesity, total LE will increase by 6.0/3.6 months and LE with diabetes will decrease with 9.8/10.3 months for men/women. We found no important effects on LE with IHD and stroke. This illustrates that the positive effects of lowering OWOB levels on IHD and stroke incidence is offset due to increasing total LE. Although the population of Copenhagen is relatively lean, reducing obesity levels will result in significant benefits for population cardiometabolic health status and LE. Future public health prevention programs may use the results as reference data for potential impact of reductions in OWOB.

Responsibility, prudence and health promotion

This article considers the role of responsibility in public health promotion. Efforts to tackle non-communicable diseases which focus on changing individual behaviour and reducing risk factor exposure sometimes invoke individual responsibility for adopting healthy lifestyles. We provide a critical discussion of this tendency. First, we outline some key distinctions in the philosophical literature on responsibility, and indicate how responsibility is incorporated into health promotion policies in the UK. We argue that the use of some forms of responsibility in health promotion is inappropriate. We present an alternative approach to understanding how individuals can ‘take responsibility’ for their health, based on the concept of prudence (i.e. acting in one’s interests). In this discussion, we do not prescribe or proscribe specific health promotion policies. Rather, we encourage public health professionals to consider how underlying assumptions (in this case, relating to responsibility) can shape health promotion policy, and how alternative framings (such as a shift from encouraging individual responsibility to facilitating prudence) may justify different kinds of action, for instance, shaping environments to make healthy behaviours easier, rather than using education as a tool to encourage responsible behaviour.

Strengthening vaccination programmes and health systems in the European Union: A framework for action

Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective public health interventions. However, the EU is facing increasing outbreaks of vaccine preventable diseases, with some fatal cases of measles. This paper reviews the main factors influencing vaccination uptake, and assesses measures expected to improve vaccination coverage. Obstacles to vaccination include concerns about vaccine safety and side effects, lack of trust, social norms, exposure to rumours and myths, and access barriers. Responses fall into three broad categories. Regulation, including the introduction of mandatory vaccination, can be justified but it is important to be sure that it is an appropriate solution to the existing problem and does not risk unintended consequences. Facilitation involves ensuring that there is an effective vaccination programme, comprehensive in nature, and reducing the many barriers, in terms of cost, distance, and time, to achieving high levels of uptake, especially for marginalised or vulnerable populations. Information is crucial, but whether in the form of public information campaigns or interactions between health workers and target populations, must be designed very carefully to avoid the risk of backfire. There is no universal solution to achieving high levels of vaccine uptake but rather a range or combinations of options. The choice of which to adopt in each country will depend on a detailed understanding of the problem, including which groups are most affected.

Health in the United States: Are Appeals to Choice and Personal Responsibility Making Americans Sick?

The United States suffers high rates of preventable lifestyle disease despite widespread calls for people to take responsibility for their health. The United States also stands out in its rejection of government action to guide industry practices and consumer choices. Why? We examine how deeply rooted cultural narratives about “free choice” and “personal responsibility” infuse policymaking, advertising, media, social norms, and individual attitudes about health in the United States. We argue that these narratives contribute to ill health in the United States: They encourage stress and worry over health, blame and stigmatization of the unhealthy, widened health disparities, and the failure to adopt policies that could save lives. Psychologists can play a major role in expanding narratives about health so that they include the role of personal choice and responsibility but also reflect current science about the physical, social, and cultural drivers of health. These broader narratives can be used to promote a more comprehensive understanding of health and to better inform the design, communication, and implementation of effective health-supportive policies.

Socioeconomic position and the impact of increasing availability of lower energy meals vs. menu energy labelling on food choice: two randomized controlled trials in a virtual fast-food restaurant

BACKGROUND

Food consumed outside of the home is often high in energy and population level interventions that reduce energy intake of people from both lower and higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are needed. There is a lack of evidence on the effectiveness and SEP equity of structural-based (e.g. increasing availability of lower energy options) and information provision (e.g. menu energy labelling) interventions on food choice.

METHODS

Across two online experiments, participants of lower and higher SEP made meal choices in a novel virtual fast-food restaurant. To be eligible to take part, participants were required to be UK residents, aged 18 or above, fluent in English, have access to a computer with an internet connection and have no dietary restrictions. Participants were randomized to one of four conditions in a 2 × 2 between-subjects design: menu energy labelling present vs. absent and increased availability of lower energy options (75% of menu options lower energy) vs. baseline availability (25% of menu options lower energy). Participants also completed measures of executive function and food choice motives.

RESULTS

The analysis of pooled data from both studies (n = 1743) showed that increasing the availability of lower energy options resulted in participants ordering meals with significantly less energy on average (- 71 kcal, p <  0.001, partial η2 = 0.024) and this effect was observed irrespective of participant SEP. Menu labelling had no significant effect on energy ordered (- 18 kcal, p = 0.116, partial η2 = 0.001) in participants from both higher and lower SEP. Furthermore, we found no evidence that executive function or food choice motives moderated the effect of increasing lower energy menu options or energy labelling on total energy ordered.

CONCLUSIONS

In a virtual fast-food environment, energy labelling was ineffective in reducing total energy ordered for both higher and lower SEP participants. Increasing the availability of lower energy options had an equitable effect, reducing total energy ordered in participants from higher and lower SEP.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Study protocols and analysis plans were pre-registered on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/ajcr6/).

The Impact of Voluntary Policies on Parents' Ability to Select Healthy Foods in Supermarkets: A Qualitative Study of Australian Parental Views

Food packaging is used for marketing purposes, providing consumers with information about product attributes at the point-of-sale and thus influencing food choice. The Australian government focuses on voluntary policies to address inappropriate food marketing, including the Health Star Rating nutrition label. This research explored the way marketing via packaging information influences Australian parents' ability to select healthy foods for their children, and who parents believe should be responsible for helping them. Five 90-min focus groups were conducted by an experienced facilitator in Perth, Western Australia. Four fathers and 33 mothers of children aged 2-8 years participated. Group discussions were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim and inductive thematic content analysis conducted using NVivo11. Seven themes were derived: (1) pressure of meeting multiple demands; (2) desire to speed up shopping; (3) feeding them well versus keeping them happy; (4) lack of certainty in packaging information; (5) government is trusted and should take charge; (6) food manufacturers' health messages are not trusted; (7) supermarkets should assist parents to select healthy foods. Food packaging information appears to be contributing to parents' uncertainty regarding healthy food choices. Supermarkets could respond to parents' trust in them by implementing structural policies, providing shopping environments that support and encourage healthy food choices.

A discourse network analysis of UK newspaper coverage of the "sugar tax" debate before and after the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy

BACKGROUND

On 6th April 2018, the UK Government introduced the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) as a mechanism designed to address increasing prevalence of obesity and associated ill health by reducing sugar consumption. Given that the successful introduction of upstream food and nutrition policies is a highly political enterprise involving multiple interested parties, understanding the complex network of stakeholders seeking to influence such policy decisions is imperative.

METHODS

Media content analysis was used to build a dataset of relevant newspaper articles, which were analysed to identify stakeholder agreement or disagreement with defined concept statements. We used discourse network analysis to produce visual representations of the network of stakeholders and coalitions evident in the debate as it was presented in UK newspapers, in the lead up to and following the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy in the UK, from May 2015 to November 2016.

RESULTS

Coding identified 3883 statements made by 214 individuals from 176 organisations, relating to 47 concepts. Network visualisations revealed a complex network of stakeholders with clear sceptical and supportive coalitions. Industry stakeholders appeared less united in the network than anticipated, particularly before the SDIL announcement. Some key industry actors appeared in the supportive coalition, possibly due to the use of corporate social responsibility rhetoric. Jamie Oliver appeared as a dominant stakeholder, firmly embedded with public health advocates.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the complexity of the network of stakeholders involved in the public debate on food policies such as sugar tax and the SDIL. Polarisation of stakeholders arose from differences in ideology, focus on a specific policy and statements about the weight of evidence. Vocal celebrity policy entrepreneurs may be instrumental in gaining public and policy makers' support for future upstream regulation to promote population health, to facilitate alignment around a clear ideology.

Appropriate utilisation of cardiac telemetry monitoring: a quality improvement project

For hospitals located in the United States, appropriate use of cardiac telemetry monitoring can be achieved resulting in cost savings to healthcare systems. Our institution has a limited number of telemetry beds, increasing the need for appropriate use of telemetry monitoring to minimise delays in patient care, reduce alarm fatigue, and decrease interruptions in patient care. This quality improvement project was conducted in a single academic medical centre in Kansas City, Kansas. The aim of the project was to reduce inappropriate cardiac telemetry monitoring on intermediate care units. Using the 2004 American Heart Association guidelines to guide appropriate telemetry utilisation, this project team sought to investigate the effects of two distinct interventions to reduce inappropriate telemetry monitoring, huddle intervention and mandatory order entry. Telemetry utilisation was followed prospectively for 2 years. During our initial intervention, we achieved a sharp decline in the number of patients on telemetry monitoring. However, over time the efficacy of the huddle intervention subsided, resulting in a need for a more sustained approach. By requiring physicians to input indication for telemetry monitoring, the second intervention increased adherence to practice guidelines and sustained reductions in inappropriate telemetry use.

Estimating the potential impact of the UK government's sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of the UK government's sugar reduction programme on child and adult obesity, adult disease burden, and healthcare costs.

DESIGN

Modelling study.

SETTING

Simulated scenario based on National Diet and Nutrition Survey waves 5 and 6, England.

PARTICIPANTS

1508 survey respondents were used to model weight change among the population of England aged 4-80 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Calorie change, weight change, and body mass index change were estimated for children and adults. Impact on non-communicable disease incidence, quality adjusted life years, and healthcare costs were estimated for adults. Changes to disease burden were modelled with the PRIMEtime-CE Model, based on the 2014 population in England aged 18-80.

RESULTS

If the sugar reduction programme was achieved in its entirety and resulted in the planned sugar reduction, then the calorie reduction was estimated to be 25 kcal/day (1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) for 4-10 year olds (95% confidence interval 23 to 26), 25 kcal/day (24 to 28) for 11-18 year olds, and 19 kcal/day (17 to 20) for adults. The reduction in obesity could represent 5.5% of the baseline obese population of 4-10 year olds, 2.2% of obese 11-18 year olds, and 5.5% of obese 19-80 year olds. A modelled 51 729 quality adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval 45 768 to 57 242) were saved over 10 years, including 154 550 (132 623 to 174 604) cases of diabetes and relating to a net healthcare saving of £285.8m (€332.5m, $373.5m; £249.7m to £319.8m).

CONCLUSIONS

The UK government's sugar reduction programme could reduce the burden of obesity and obesity related disease, provided that reductions in sugar levels and portion sizes do not prompt unanticipated changes in eating patterns or product formulation.

Intermediate hyperglycaemia to predict progression to type 2 diabetes (ELSA-Brasil): an occupational cohort study in Brazil

BACKGROUND

The burden of diabetes is increasing worldwide and diabetes can be prevented with intervention in people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Intermediate hyperglycaemia defined without an oral glucose tolerance test as impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and high HbA_1c are also used to characterise risk. We aimed to assess the prognostic properties of five definitions of intermediate hyperglycaemia (also known as prediabetes) on the basis of their ability to predict who will progress to diabetes.

METHODS

The Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) is an occupational cohort study of active or retired civil servants, aged 35-74 years, recruited from public universities and research institutes in six state capital cities in Brazil. We excluded participants who provided insufficient information to ascertain diabetes status, those without information on relevant covariates, and those with diabetes. We classified type 2 diabetes on the basis of self-report, medication use, measures of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h plasma glucose, and HbA_1c. We used five laboratory definitions of intermediate hyperglycaemia: IGT (2 h plasma glucose ≥7·8 mmol/L [≥140 mg/dL]); IFG based on American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria (FPG ≥5·5 mmol/L [≥100 mg/dL]); IFG based on WHO criteria (FPG ≥6·1 mmol/L [≥110 mg/dL]); HbA_1c based on ADA criteria (HbA_1c ≥39 mmol/mol [5·7%]); and HbA_1c based on International Expert Committee criteria, IEC-HbA_1c, (HbA_1c ≥42 mmol/mol [6·0%]). We estimated risk of each definition using Cox regression and overall predictability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) using logistic regression.

FINDINGS

We recruited 15 105 participants from Aug 18, 2008, to Dec 20, 2010, and followed up for a mean of 3·7 (SD 0·63) years. Diabetes incidence rate was 2·0 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1·8-2·1). Among the 11 199 eligible participants, 6563 (59%) presented with some form of intermediate hyperglycaemia. ADA-IFG (4870/11 199 [43·5%), IEC-HbA_1c (1005 [9·0%]), and ADA-HbA_1c (2299 [20·5%]) poorly predicted diabetes (3·5-3·6 per 100 person-years). WHO-IFG (1140 [10·2%]) and IGT (2245 [20·0%]) predicted greater conversion (7·5 per 100 person-years and 5·8 per 100 person-years, respectively). All definitions presented either low sensitivity or specificity. Combinations of tests improved prognostic properties, with the combination of IGT or WHO-IFG showing the best, but still insufficient, predictability (sensitivity 67·7%, 95% CI 64·5-70·1; specificity 77·9%, 77·1-78·7). The AUC for the three underlying glycaemic tests was 65·0% (95% CI 63·0-66·9) for HbA_1c, 74·6% (72·7-76·4) for FPG, and 77·1% (75·4-78·8) for 2 h plasma glucose, whereas the AUC for a score composed of clinical information was 71·6% (69·8-73·3). When this score was combined with results of an oral glucose tolerance test, the AUC reached 82·4% (80·9-83·9).

INTERPRETATION

IFG based on WHO criteria and IGT predict diabetes progression better than do the other three definitions of intermediate hyperglycaemia, but their sensitivity is low. IFG based on ADA criteria has better sensitivity than the others, but classifies almost half of adults as having intermediate hyperglycaemia and poorly predicts diabetes. Combining glycaemic results with clinical information improves prognostic properties of those at risk.

FUNDING

The Brazilian Ministry of Health (Science and Technology Department), the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico), and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brasil (CAPES).