Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

Evaluating Temperature Effects on Bluetongue Virus Serotype 10 and 17 Coinfection in Culicoides sonorensis

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is a segmented, double-stranded RNA virus transmitted by Culicoides midges that infects ruminants. As global temperatures increase and geographical ranges of midges expand, there is increased potential for BTV outbreaks from incursions of novel serotypes into endemic regions. However, an understanding of the effect of temperature on reassortment is lacking. The objectives of this study were to compare how temperature affected Culicoides survival, virogenesis, and reassortment in Culicoides sonorensis coinfected with two BTV serotypes. Midges were fed blood meals containing BTV-10, BTV-17, or BTV serotype 10 and 17 and maintained at 20 °C, 25 °C, or 30 °C. Midge survival was assessed, and pools of midges were collected every other day to evaluate virogenesis of BTV via qRT-PCR. Additional pools of coinfected midges were collected for BTV plaque isolation. The genotypes of plaques were determined using next-generation sequencing. Warmer temperatures impacted traits related to vector competence in offsetting ways: BTV replicated faster in midges at warmer temperatures, but midges did not survive as long. Overall, plaques with BTV-17 genotype dominated, but BTV-10 was detected in some plaques, suggesting parental strain fitness may play a role in reassortment outcomes. Temperature adds an important dimension to host-pathogen interactions with implications for transmission and evolution.

Culicoides-borne Orbivirus epidemiology in a changing climate

Orbiviruses are of significant importance to the health of wildlife and domestic animals worldwide; the major orbiviruses transmitted by multiple biting midge (Culicoides) species include bluetongue virus, epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, and African horse sickness virus. The viruses, insect vectors, and hosts are anticipated to be impacted by global climate change, altering established Orbivirus epidemiology. Changes in global climate have the potential to alter the vector competence and extrinsic incubation period of certain biting midge species, affect local and long-distance dispersal dynamics, lead to range expansion in the geographic distribution of vector species, and increase transmission period duration (earlier spring onset and later fall transmission). If transmission intensity is associated with weather anomalies such as droughts and wind speeds, there may be changes in the number of outbreaks and periods between outbreaks for some regions. Warmer temperatures and changing climates may impact the viral genome by facilitating reassortment and through the emergence of novel viral mutations. As the climate changes, Orbivirus epidemiology will be inextricably altered as has been seen with recent outbreaks of bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease, and African horse sickness outside of endemic areas, and requires interdisciplinary teams and approaches to assess and mitigate future outbreak threats.

An Agent-Based Model of Biting Midge Dynamics to Understand Bluetongue Outbreaks

Bluetongue (BT) is a well-known vector-borne disease that infects ruminants such as sheep, cattle, and deer with high mortality rates. Recent outbreaks in Europe highlight the importance of understanding vector-host dynamics and potential courses of action to mitigate the damage that can be done by BT. We present an agent-based model, entitled 'MidgePy', that focuses on the movement of individual Culicoides spp. biting midges and their interactions with ruminants to understand their role as vectors in BT outbreaks, especially in regions that do not regularly experience outbreaks. The results of our sensitivity analysis suggest that midge survival rate has a significant impact on the probability of a BTV outbreak as well as its severity. Using midge flight activity as a proxy for temperature, we found that an increase in environmental temperature corresponded with an increased probability of outbreak after identifying parameter regions where outbreaks are more likely to occur. This suggests that future methods to control BT spread could combine large-scale vaccination programs with biting midge population control measures such as the use of pesticides. Spatial heterogeneity in the environment is also explored to give insight on optimal farm layouts to reduce the potential for BT outbreaks.

Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.

Wolbachia wAlbB inhibits bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic fever viruses in Culicoides midge cells

Culicoides midges are hematophagous insects that transmit arboviruses of veterinary importance. These viruses include bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic fever virus (EHDV). The endosymbiont Wolbachia pipientis Hertig spreads rapidly through insect host populations and has been demonstrated to inhibit viral pathogen transmission in multiple mosquito vectors. Here, we have demonstrated a replication inhibitory effect on BTV and EHDV in a Wolbachia (wAlbB strain)-infected Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones W8 cell line. Viral replication was significantly reduced by day 5 for BTV and by day 2 for EHDV as detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) of the non-structural NS3 gene of both viruses. Evaluation of innate cellular immune responses as a cause of the inhibitory effect showed responses associated with BTV but not with EHDV infection. Wolbachia density also did not play a role in the observed pathogen inhibitory effects, and an alternative hypothesis is suggested. Applications of Wolbachia-mediated pathogen interference to impact disease transmission by Culicoides midges are discussed.

Model-based extrapolation of ecological systems under future climate scenarios: The example of Ixodes ricinus ticks

Models can be applied to extrapolate consequences of climate change for complex ecological systems in the future. The acknowledged systems' behaviour at present is projected into the future considering climate projection data. Such an approach can be used to addresses the future activity and density of the castor bean tick Ixodes ricinus, the most widespread tick species in Europe. It is an important vector of pathogens causing Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. The population dynamics depend on several biotic and abiotic factors. Such complexity makes it difficult to predict the future dynamics and density of I. ricinus and associated health risk for humans. The objective of this study is to force ecological models with high-resolution climate projection data to extrapolate I. ricinus tick density and activity patterns into the future. We used climate projection data of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity for the period 1971-2099 from 15 different climate models. Tick activity was investigated using a climate-driven cohort-based population model. We simulated the seasonal population dynamics using climate data between 1971 and 2099 and observed weather data since 1949 at a specific location in southern Germany. We evaluated derived quantities of local tick ecology, e.g. the maximum questing activity of the nymphal stage. Furthermore, we predicted spatial density changes by extrapolating a German-wide tick density model. We compared the tick density of the reference period (1971-2000) with the counter-factual densities under the near-term scenario (2012-2041), mid-term scenario (2050-2079) and long-term scenario (2070-2099). We found that the nymphal questing peak would shift towards early seasons of the year. Also, we found high spatial heterogeneity across Germany, with predicted hotspots of up to 2,000 nymphs per 100 m2 and coldspots with constant density. As our results suggest extreme changes in tick behaviour and density, we discuss why caution is needed when extrapolating climate data-driven models into the distant future when data on future climate drive the model projection.

Bluetongue and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease in the United States of America at the Wildlife-Livestock Interface

Bluetongue (BT) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) cases have increased worldwide, causing significant economic loss to ruminant livestock production and detrimental effects to susceptible wildlife populations. In recent decades, hemorrhagic disease cases have been reported over expanding geographic areas in the United States. Effective BT and EHD prevention and control strategies for livestock and monitoring of these diseases in wildlife populations depend on an accurate understanding of the distribution of BT and EHD viruses in domestic and wild ruminants and their vectors, the Culicoides biting midges that transmit them. However, national maps showing the distribution of BT and EHD viruses and the presence of Culicoides vectors are incomplete or not available at all. Thus, efforts to accurately describe the potential risk of these viruses on ruminant populations are obstructed by the lack of systematic and routine surveillance of their hosts and vectors. In this review, we: (1) outline animal health impacts of BT and EHD in the USA; (2) describe current knowledge of the distribution and abundance of BT and EHD and their vectors in the USA; and (3) highlight the importance of disease (BT and EHD) and vector surveillance for ruminant populations.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) populations on Reunion Island (Indian Ocean)

BACKGROUND

Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic diseases, two insect-borne orbiviral diseases of ruminants. Hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the vectors of bluetongue (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHDV) viruses. In a previous study, statistical models based on environmental and meteorological data were developed for the five Culicoides species present in the island to provide a better understanding of their ecology and predict their presence and abundance. The purpose of this study was to couple these statistical models with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce dynamic maps of the distribution of Culicoides throughout the island.

METHODS

Based on meteorological data from ground weather stations and satellite-derived environmental data, the abundance of each of the five Culicoides species was estimated for the 2214 husbandry locations on the island for the period ranging from February 2016 to June 2018. A large-scale Culicoides sampling campaign including 100 farms was carried out in March 2018 to validate the model.

RESULTS

According to the model predictions, no husbandry location was free of Culicoides throughout the study period. The five Culicoides species were present on average in 57.0% of the husbandry locations for C. bolitinos Meiswinkel, 40.7% for C. enderleini Cornet & Brunhes, 26.5% for C. grahamii Austen, 87.1% for C. imicola Kieffer and 91.8% for C. kibatiensis Goetghebuer. The models also showed high seasonal variations in their distribution. During the validation process, predictions were acceptable for C. bolitinos, C. enderleini and C. kibatiensis, with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 15.4%, 13.6% and 16.5%, respectively. The NRMSE was 27.4% for C. grahamii. For C. imicola, the NRMSE was acceptable (11.9%) considering all husbandry locations except in two specific areas, the Cirque de Salazie-an inner mountainous part of the island-and the sea edge, where the model overestimated its abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model provides, for the first time to our knowledge, an operational tool to better understand and predict the distribution of Culicoides in Reunion Island. As it predicts a wide spatial distribution of the five Culicoides species throughout the year and taking into consideration their vector competence, our results suggest that BTV and EHDV can circulate continuously on the island. As further actions, our model could be coupled with an epidemiological model of BTV and EHDV transmission to improve risk assessment of Culicoides-borne diseases on the island.

High dispersal capacity of Culicoides obsoletus (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vector of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses, revealed by landscape genetic analyses

BACKGROUND

In the last two decades, recurrent epizootics of bluetongue virus and Schmallenberg virus have been reported in the western Palearctic region. These viruses affect domestic cattle, sheep, goats and wild ruminants and are transmitted by native hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Culicoides dispersal is known to be stratified, i.e. due to a combination of dispersal processes occurring actively at short distances and passively or semi-actively at long distances, allowing individuals to jump hundreds of kilometers.

METHODS

Here, we aim to identify the environmental factors that promote or limit gene flow of Culicoides obsoletus, an abundant and widespread vector species in Europe, using an innovative framework integrating spatial, population genetics and statistical approaches. A total of 348 individuals were sampled in 46 sites in France and were genotyped using 13 newly designed microsatellite markers.

RESULTS

We found low genetic differentiation and a weak population structure for C. obsoletus across the country. Using three complementary inter-individual genetic distances, we did not detect any significant isolation by distance, but did detect significant anisotropic isolation by distance on a north-south axis. We employed a multiple regression on distance matrices approach to investigate the correlation between genetic and environmental distances. Among all the environmental factors that were tested, only cattle density seems to have an impact on C. obsoletus gene flow.

CONCLUSIONS

The high dispersal capacity of C. obsoletus over land found in the present study calls for a re-evaluation of the impact of Culicoides on virus dispersal, and highlights the urgent need to better integrate molecular, spatial and statistical information to guide vector-borne disease control.

Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.

Environmental Drivers of Adult Seasonality and Abundance of Biting Midges Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), Bluetongue Vector Species in Spain

Bluetongue is a viral disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants transmitted by several species of biting midges Culicoides Latreille. The phenology of these insects were analyzed in relation to potential environmental drivers. Data from 329 sites in Spain were analyzed using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) approaches. The effects of environmental factors on adult female seasonality were contrasted. Obsoletus complex species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were the most prevalent across sites, followed by Culicoides newsteadi Austen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Activity of female Obsoletus complex species was longest in sites at low elevation, with warmer spring average temperatures and precipitation, as well as in sites with high abundance of cattle. The length of the Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) female adult season was also longest in sites at low elevation with higher coverage of broad-leaved vegetation. Long adult seasons of C. newsteadi were found in sites with warmer autumns and higher precipitation, high abundance of sheep. Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) had longer adult periods in sites with a greater number of accumulated degree days over 10°C during winter. These results demonstrate the eco-climatic and seasonal differences among these four taxa in Spain, which may contribute to determining sites with suitable environmental circumstances for each particular species to inform assessments of the risk of Bluetongue virus outbreaks in this region.

Spatio-temporal and time series analysis of bluetongue outbreaks with environmental factors extracted from Google Earth Engine (GEE) in Andhra Pradesh, India

This study describes the spatial and temporal patterns of bluetongue (BT) outbreaks with environmental factors in undivided Andhra Pradesh, India. Descriptive analysis of the reported BT outbreaks (n = 2,697) in the study period (2000-2017) revealed a higher frequency of outbreaks during monsoon and post-monsoon months. Correlation analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), rainfall and relative humidity (RH) displayed a significant positive correlation with BT outbreaks (p < .05). Retrospective unadjusted space-time, adjusted temporal and spatial analysis detected two, five and two statistically significant (p < .05) clusters, respectively. Time series distribution lag analysis examined the temporal patterns of BT outbreaks with environmental, biophysical factors and estimated that a decrease in 1 unit of rainfall (mm) was associated with 0.2% increase in the outbreak at lag 12 months. Similarly, a 1°C increase in land surface temperature (LST) was associated with 6.54% increase in the outbreaks at lag 12 months. However, an increase in 1 unit of wind speed (m/s) was associated with a 16% decrease in the outbreak at lag 10 months. The predictive model indicated that the peak of BT outbreaks were from October to December, the post-monsoon season in Andhra Pradesh region. The findings suggest that environmental factors influence BT outbreaks, and due to changes in climatic conditions, we may notice higher numbers of BT outbreaks in the coming years. The knowledge of spatial and temporal clustering of BT outbreaks may assist in adopting proper measures to prevent and control the BT spread.

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Bayesian optimisation of restriction zones for bluetongue control

We investigate the restriction of animal movements as a method to control the spread of bluetongue, an infectious disease of livestock that is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the onset of climate change. We derive control policies for the UK that minimise the number of infected farms during an outbreak using Bayesian optimisation and a simulation-based model of BT. Two cases are presented: first, where the region of introduction is randomly selected from England and Wales to find a generalised strategy. This “national” model is shown to be just as effective at subduing the spread of bluetongue as the current strategy of the UK government. Our proposed controls are simpler to implement, affect fewer farms in the process and, in so doing, minimise the potential economic implications. Second, we consider policies that are tailored to the specific region in which the first infection was detected. Seven different regions in the UK were explored and improvements in efficiency from the use of specialised policies presented. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures associated with climate change, efficient control measures for vector-borne diseases such as this are expected to become increasingly important. Our work demonstrates the potential value of using Bayesian optimisation in developing cost-effective disease management strategies.

Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R₀-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R₀-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.

The role of drought as a determinant of hemorrhagic disease in the eastern United States

Bluetongue virus and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (HD) virus are globally distributed, vector-borne viruses that infect and cause disease in domestic and wild ruminant species. The forces driving increases in resulting HD may be linked to weather conditions and increasing severity has been noted in northerly latitudes. We evaluated the role of drought severity in both space and time on changes in HD reports across the eastern United States for a recent 15 year period. The objectives of this study were to: (a) develop a spatiotemporal model to evaluate if drought severity explains changing patterns of HD presence; and (b) determine whether this potential risk factor varies in importance over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Historic data (2000-2014) from an annual HD presence-absence survey conducted by the Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study and from the United States Drought Monitor were used for this analysis. For every county in 23 states and for each of 15 years, data were based on reported drought status for August, wetland cover, the physiographic region, and the status of HD in the previous year. We used a generalized linear mixed model to explain HD presence and evaluated spatiotemporal predictors across the region. We found that drought severity was a significant predictor of HD presence and the significance of this relationship was dependent on latitude. In more northerly latitudes, where immunological naivety is most likely, we demonstrated the increasing strength of drought severity as a determinant of reported HD and established the importance of variation in drought severity as a risk factor over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Our research provides spatially explicit evidence for the link between climate forces and emerging disease patterns across latitude for a globally distributed disease.

Ecological Dynamics Impacting Bluetongue Virus Transmission in North America

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus transmitted to domestic and wild ruminants by certain species of Culicoides midges. The disease resulting from infection with BTV is economically important and can influence international trade and movement of livestock, the economics of livestock production, and animal welfare. Recent changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-transmitted viruses, notably the emergence of exotic BTV genotypes in Europe, have demonstrated the devastating economic consequences of BTV epizootics and the complex nature of transmission across host-vector landscapes. Incursions of novel BTV serotypes into historically enzootic countries or regions, including the southeastern United States (US), Israel, Australia, and South America, have also occurred, suggesting diverse pathways for the transmission of these viruses. The abundance of BTV strains and multiple reassortant viruses circulating in Europe and the US in recent years demonstrates considerable genetic diversity of BTV strains and implies a history of reassortment events within the respective regions. While a great deal of emphasis is rightly placed on understanding the epidemiology and emergence of BTV beyond its natural ecosystem, the ecological contexts in which BTV maintains an enzootic cycle may also be of great significance. This review focuses on describing our current knowledge of ecological factors driving BTV transmission in North America. Information presented in this review can help inform future studies that may elucidate factors that are relevant to longstanding and emerging challenges associated with prevention of this disease.

Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review

Managed temperate grasslands occupy 25% of the world, which is 70% of global agricultural land. These lands are an important source of food for the global population. This review paper examines the impacts of climate change on managed temperate grasslands and grassland-based livestock and effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation options and their interactions. The paper clarifies that moderately elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) enhances photosynthesis, however it may be restiricted by variations in rainfall and temperature, shifts in plant’s growing seasons, and nutrient availability. Different responses of plant functional types and their photosynthetic pathways to the combined effects of climatic change may result in compositional changes in plant communities, while more research is required to clarify the specific responses. We have also considered how other interacting factors, such as a progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) of soils under eCO2, may affect interactions of the animal and the environment and the associated production. In addition to observed and modelled declines in grasslands productivity, changes in forage quality are expected. The health and productivity of grassland-based livestock are expected to decline through direct and indirect effects from climate change. Livestock enterprises are also significant cause of increased global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (about 14.5%), so climate risk-management is partly to develop and apply effective mitigation measures. Overall, our finding indicates complex impact that will vary by region, with more negative than positive impacts. This means that both wins and losses for grassland managers can be expected in different circumstances, thus the analysis of climate change impact required with potential adaptations and mitigation strategies to be developed at local and regional levels.

Quantifying the potential for bluetongue virus transmission in Danish cattle farms

We used a mechanistic transmission model to estimate the number of infectious bites (IBs) generated per bluetongue virus (BTV) infected host (cattle) using estimated hourly microclimatic temperatures at 22,004 Danish cattle farms for the period 2000–2016, and Culicoides midge abundance based on 1,453 light-trap collections during 2007–2016. We used a range of published estimates of the duration of the hosts’ infectious period and equations for the relationship between temperature and four key transmission parameters: extrinsic incubation period, daily vector survival rate, daily vector biting rate and host-to-vector transmission rate resulting in 147,456 combinations of daily IBs. More than 82% combinations of the parameter values predicted > 1 IBs per host. The mean IBs (10–90^th percentiles) for BTV per infectious host were 59 (0–73) during the transmission period. We estimated a maximum of 14,954 IBs per infectious host at some farms, while a best-case scenario suggested transmission was never possible at some farms. The use of different equations for the vector survival rate and host-to-vector transmission rates resulted in large uncertainty in the predictions. If BTV is introduced in Denmark, local transmission is very likely to occur. Vectors infected as late as mid-September (early autumn) can successfully transmit BTV to a new host until mid-November (late autumn).

Towards a thermodynamic mechanistic model for the effect of temperature on arthropod vector competence for transmission of arboviruses

Arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), bluetongue virus (BTV), dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infect their arthropod vectors over a range of average temperatures depending on the ambient temperature. How the transmission efficiency of an arbovirus (i.e. vector competence) varies with temperature influences not only the short term risk of arbovirus outbreaks in humans and livestock but also the long term impact of climate change on the geographical range of the virus. The strength of the interaction between viral surface (glyco)protein (GP) and the host cell receptor (Cr) on binding of virus to host cell is defined by the thermodynamic dissociation constant K_{d_receptor} which is assumed to equal 10^-3 M (at 37 °C) for binding of a sialic acid (SA) on the arthropod midgut epithelial cell surface to a SA-binding site on the surface of BTV, for example. Here virus binding affinity is modelled with increasing number of GP/Cr contacts at temperatures from 10 °C to 35 °C taking into account the change in entropy on immobilization of the whole virus on binding (ΔS_{a_immob}). Based on published data, three thermodynamic GP/Cr binding scenarios, namely enthalpy-driven, entropy-assisted and entropy-driven, are shown to affect the temperature sensitivity of virus binding in different ways. Thus for enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding, viruses bind host cells much more strongly at 10 °C than 35 °C. A mechanistic model is developed for the number of arthropod midgut cells with bound virus and by building in a kinetic component for the rate of arbovirus replication and subsequent spread to the arthropod salivary glands, a model for the effect of temperature on vector competence is developed. The model separates the opposing effects of temperature on midgut cell binding affinity from the kinetic component of virogenesis. It successfully accommodates both increases in vector competence with temperature as for DENV and WNV in mosquitoes and decreases as for the CHIKV 2010-1909 strain in various populations of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Enhanced cell binding at lower temperatures through enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding compensates for the lower replication rate to some degree such that some transmission can still occur at lower temperatures. In contrast, the strength of entropy-driven GP/Cr binding diminishes at low temperatures although there is no minimum temperature threshold for transmission efficiency. The magnitude of ΔS_{a_immob} is an important data gap. It is concluded that thermodynamic and kinetic data obtained at the molecular level will prove important in modelling vector competence with temperature.

Bluetongue Virus in France: An Illustration of the European and Mediterranean Context since the 2000s

Bluetongue (BT) is a non-contagious animal disease transmitted by midges of the Culicoides genus. The etiological agent is the BT virus (BTV) that induces a variety of clinical signs in wild or domestic ruminants. BT is included in the notifiable diseases list of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) due to its health impact on domestic ruminants. A total of 27 BTV serotypes have been described and additional serotypes have recently been identified. Since the 2000s, the distribution of BTV has changed in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin, with continuous BTV incursions involving various BTV serotypes and strains. These BTV strains, depending on their origin, have emerged and spread through various routes in the Mediterranean Basin and/or in Europe. Consequently, control measures have been put in place in France to eradicate the virus or circumscribe its spread. These measures mainly consist of assessing virus movements and the vaccination of domestic ruminants. Many vaccination campaigns were first carried out in Europe using attenuated vaccines and, in a second period, using exclusively inactivated vaccines. This review focuses on the history of the various BTV strain incursions in France since the 2000s, describing strain characteristics, their origins, and the different routes of spread in Europe and/or in the Mediterranean Basin. The control measures implemented to address this disease are also discussed. Finally, we explain the circumstances leading to the change in the BTV status of France from BTV-free in 2000 to an enzootic status since 2018.

Biopesticides improve efficiency of the sterile insect technique for controlling mosquito-driven dengue epidemics

Various mosquito control methods use factory raised males to suppress vector densities. But the efficiency of these methods is currently insufficient to prevent epidemics of arbovirus diseases such as dengue, chikungunya or Zika. Suggestions that the sterile insect technique (SIT) could be "boosted" by applying biopesticides to sterile males remain unquantified. Here, we assess mathematically the gains to SIT for Aedes control of either: boosting with the pupicide pyriproxifen (BSIT); or, contaminating mosquitoes at auto-dissemination stations. Thresholds in sterile male release rate and competitiveness are identified, above which mosquitoes are eliminated asymptotically. Boosting reduces these thresholds and aids population destabilisation, even at sub-threshold release rates. No equivalent bifurcation exists in the auto-dissemination sub-model. Analysis suggests that BSIT can reduce by over 95% the total release required to circumvent dengue epidemics compared to SIT. We conclude, BSIT provides a powerful new tool for the integrated management of mosquito borne diseases.

Presence of bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic disease viruses in Egypt in 2016 and 2017

BTV and EHDV are closely-related orbiviruses that are transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants via the bites of hematophagous midges. Previous studies have reported seropositivity against BTV antibodies in sheep and goats in two Egyptian governorates (Beni Suef and Menoufia). However, no recent data are available on the BTV serotype(s) circulating in Egypt and the likely presence of EHDV has never been explored. This study investigated the presence of BTV and EHDV among cattle which had been found BTV-seropositive by ELISA method. These cattle living in proximity to sheep and goats previously found BTV-seropositive. These cattle displayed no clinical signs of BT but reproductive problems had been reported in herds. A total of 227 cattle blood samples were therefore collected in 2016 and 2017. Ninety-four of the 227 animals tested by a BTV ELISA were positive for BTV antibodies (41.4%). Of these 94 ELISA-positive cattle, only 83 EDTA-blood samples were available and therefore tested for BTV and EHDV genome detection by RT-PCR and sequencing. Of the cattle sampled in 2016, results revealed that two were RT-PCR-positive for BTV and seven for EHDV. Sequencing showed the presence of EHDV-1 and BTV-3 genome sequences. EHDV-1 S2 shared 99.5% homology with an EHDV-1 S2 from a strain isolated in 2016 in Israel. BTV-3 S2 and S8 sequences shared >99.8% nucleotide similarity with the BTV-3 Zarzis S2 and S8 sequences (Tunisian BTV, also detected in 2016). Of the 66 blood samples tested following their collection in 2017, they were all EHDV-negative by RT-qPCR while five were BTV- positive by RT-qPCR. However, attempts to identify the BTV serotype of these five samples were unsuccessful. Only part of BTV S8 was sequenced and it showed 79% nucleotide similarity with S8 of atypical BTV serotypes (particularly with BTV-26 and another BTV serotype strain isolated from a sheep pox vaccine). Overall, these findings demonstrate that both BTV and EHDV were circulating in Egypt in 2016 and 2017.

Western Bluetongue virus serotype 3 in Sardinia, diagnosis and characterization

Over the last 20 years, Italy has experienced multiple incursions of different serotypes of Bluetongue virus (BTV), a Culicoides‐borne arbovirus, the causative agent of bluetongue (BT), a major disease of ruminants. The majority of these incursions originated from Northern Africa, likely because of wind‐blown dissemination of infected midges. Here, we report the first identification of BTV‐3 in Sardinia, Italy. BTV‐3 circulation was evidenced in sentinel animals located in the province of Sud Sardegna on September 19, 2018. Prototype strain BTV‐3 SAR2018 was isolated on cell culture. BTV‐3 SAR2018 sequence and partial sequences obtained by next‐generation sequencing from nucleic acids purified from the isolate and blood samples, respectively, were demonstrated to be almost identical (99–100% of nucleotide identity) to BTV‐3 TUN2016 identified in Tunisia in 2016 and 2017, a scenario already observed in past incursions of other BTV serotypes originating from Northern Africa.

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance

BACKGROUND

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe.

METHODS

We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present.

RESULTS

The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

An update of the Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) checklist for the Balkans

BACKGROUND

The prime significance of species belonging to the genus Culicoides Latreille, 1809 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is their ability to transmit viruses such as bluetongue virus (BTV) to wild and domestic ruminants. Prior to 1998, BTV was considered exotic in Europe, but according to recent history of its outbreaks, it has become endemic in southern and eastern European countries circulating beyond its expected historical limits, into the Balkan region. The wind-borne long-distance dispersal of Culicoides spp. over water bodies and local spreading between farms emphasize the necessity of filling in the information gaps regarding vector species distribution. In most Balkan countries, data on Culicoides fauna and species distribution are lacking, or information is old and scarce.

RESULTS

During this study, 8586 specimens belonging to 41 species were collected. We present the first faunistic data on Culicoides species in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia. For other countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Croatia), all historical records were compiled for the first time and then expanded with our findings to various extents. In all countries, confirmed or suspected BTV vector species belonging to the subgenera Avaritia and Culicoides were collected. The total number of species sampled during our field collections was 20 in Bosnia and Herzegovina (15 new records), 10 in Bulgaria (2 new records), 10 in Croatia (5 new records), 13 in FYROM, 9 in Kosovo, 15 in Montenegro, and 28 in Serbia. Of these, 14 species were registered for the first time in this part of the Balkans.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper provides the first data about Culicoides fauna in FYROM, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia, as well as new records and an update on the checklists for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Croatia. These findings provide preliminary insights into the routes of BTV introduction and spreading within the Balkans, and present a valuable contribution to further research related to Culicoides-borne diseases in Europe.

Ecosystem change and zoonoses in the Anthropocene

Changes in land use, animal populations and climate, primarily due to increasing human populations, drive the emergence of zoonoses. Force of infection (FOI), which for these diseases is a measure of the ease with which a pathogen reaches the human population, can change with specific zoonoses and context. Here, we outline three ecosystem categories-domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic, where disease ecology alters the FOI of specific zoonoses. Human intervention is an overriding effect in the emergence of zoonoses; therefore, we need to understand the disease ecology and other influencing factors of pathogens and parasites that are likely to interact differently within ecological and cultural contexts. Planning for One Health and community ecology, such as an ecological impact assessment, is required to prepare and manage the emergence and impact of zoonoses in the Anthropocene.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Bluetongue transmission and control in Europe: A systematic review of compartmental mathematical models

The growing frequency of bluetongue virus (BTV) incursions in Europe in recent years led to the largest BTV outbreak ever recorded in 2006/09, with a dramatic impact on the cattle and sheep industries. The complex epidemiology of this vector-borne disease of ruminants and its recent emergence need to be better understood to identify and implement efficient control strategies. Mathematical models provide useful tools for that purpose; many of them have been developed in the light of the 2006/09 outbreak. We aimed to provide a systematic review of compartmental mathematical models dedicated to BTV occurrence or transmission in European countries, to assess robustness of findings to different modelling approaches and assumptions. We identified relevant papers from PubMed and Scopus databases, 21 of which were included in the review following the selection process laid out in the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. We systematically extracted data from these papers to address the diversity and evolution of modelling approaches, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. Then, we summarized the main insights provided into bluetongue epidemiology, and discussed the relevance of these models as tools for risk mapping and for the design of surveillance and control systems. On the whole, the mechanistic models reviewed provided flexible frameworks, yielding mostly epidemiological insights specific to geographical areas and study periods. Despite the limitations of these models that sometimes relied on strong assumptions, we advocate their use to facilitate and inform evidence-based decision-making in animal health.

Retrospective analysis of Bluetongue farm risk profile definition, based on biology, farm management practices and climatic data

Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by species of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Many studies have contributed to clarifying various aspects of its aetiology, epidemiology and vector dynamic; however, BT remains a disease of epidemiological and economic importance that affects ruminants worldwide. Since 2000, the Sardinia region has been the most affected area of the Mediterranean basin. The region is characterised by wide pastoral areas for sheep and represents the most likely candidate region for the study of Bluetongue virus (BTV) distribution and prevalence in Italy. Furthermore, specific information on the farm level and epidemiological studies needs to be provided to increase the knowledge on the disease's spread and to provide valid mitigation strategies in Sardinia. This study conducted a punctual investigation into the spatial patterns of BTV transmission to define a risk profile for all Sardinian farmsby using a logistic multilevel mixed model that take into account agro-meteorological aspects, as well as farm characteristics and management. Data about animal density (i.e. sheep, goats and cattle), vaccination, previous outbreaks, altitude, land use, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water surface, and farm management practices (i.e. use of repellents, treatment against insect vectors, storage of animals in shelter overnight, cleaning, presence of mud and manure) were collected for 12,277 farms for the years 2011-2015. The logistic multilevel mixed model showed the fundamental role of climatic factors in disease development and the protective role of good management, vaccination, outbreak in the previous year and altitude. Regional BTV risk maps were developed, based on the predictor values of logistic model results, and updated every 10 days. These maps were used to identify, 20 days in advance, the areas at highest risk. The risk farm profile, as defined by the model, would provide specific information about the role of each factor for all Sardinian institutions involved in devising BT prevention and control strategies.

Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations

Numerical models for simulating outbreaks of infectious diseases are powerful tools for informing surveillance and control strategy decisions. However, large-scale spatially explicit models can be limited by the amount of computational resources they require, which poses a problem when multiple scenarios need to be explored to provide policy recommendations. We introduce an easily implemented method that can reduce computation time in a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model without introducing any further approximations or truncations. It is based on a hierarchical infection process that operates on entire groups of spatially related nodes (cells in a grid) in order to efficiently filter out large volumes of susceptible nodes that would otherwise have required expensive calculations. After the filtering of the cells, only a subset of the nodes that were originally at risk are then evaluated for actual infection. The increase in efficiency is sensitive to the exact configuration of the grid, and we describe a simple method to find an estimate of the optimal configuration of a given landscape as well as a method to partition the landscape into a grid configuration. To investigate its efficiency, we compare the introduced methods to other algorithms and evaluate computation time, focusing on simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on the farm population of the USA, the UK and Sweden, as well as on three randomly generated populations with varying degree of clustering. The introduced method provided up to 500 times faster calculations than pairwise computation, and consistently performed as well or better than other available methods. This enables large scale, spatially explicit simulations such as for the entire continental USA without sacrificing realism or predictive power.

Numerical models for simulating the outbreak of infectious disease are powerful tools that can be used to inform policy decisions by simulating outbreaks and control actions. However, they rely on considerable computational power to explore all outcomes and scenarios of interest. Focusing on model types commonly used for livestock diseases, we here introduce novel algorithms for efficient computation, alongside techniques to optimize them based on simplifying assumptions. Through simulations of FMD outbreak in the US, the UK and Sweden, as well as in computer generated landscapes, we test how these methods perform under realistic conditions. We find that our optimization techniques works well, and when the introduced algorithms are implemented with these optimizations, computation time can be reduced by more than two orders of magnitude compared to pairwise calculations. We propose that the considered algorithms—which are straight forward to implement—will be useful for simulation of a wide range of diseases, and will promote the use of simulation models for policy recommendation.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of the Bluetongue Epizooty in the Balkan Peninsula from 2014 to February 2015

Starting in May 2014 an emerging Bluetongue (BT) serotype 4 (BTV-4) epizooty has affected the ruminant population of eleven countries from the Balkan Peninsula. Consequently, the veterinary services implemented various bio-security measures and a considerable discussion has been raised if future BTV surveillance and preventive measures should be taken in risk based zones and periods. Therefore, the objective of this work was to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of the BTV-4 epizooty in the Balkan Peninsula from May 2014 to February 2015. We used the space-time permutation model of the scan statistic to identify the space-time disease clusters. The scan statistic was parameterized to a maximum temporal length of 150 days (duration of the epizooty in the Balkans in 2014) and a radius of 100 km as a maximum spatial cluster size (protection zone for BT). Results were significant (p < 0.05) to the maximum spatial size defined for the clusters. From the 6295 BT outbreaks the scan statistics identified 33 disease clusters in nine Balkan countries. The highest number of outbreaks occurred from September to November 2014.The earliest cluster was detected in Greece in July 2014 with a radius of 56 km. The latest cluster was detected in Croatia in February 2015 with a radius of 99,8 km. These results are a first description of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2014-February 2015 BT epizooty in the Balkans.

Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.

Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics

Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity.

The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus

It is a long recognized fact that climatic variations, especially temperature, affect the life history of biting insects. This is particularly important when considering vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate regions where climatic fluctuations are large. In general, it has been found that most biological processes occur at a faster rate at higher temperatures, although not all processes change in the same manner. This differential response to temperature, often considered as a trade-off between onward transmission and vector life expectancy, leads to the total transmission potential of an infected vector being maximized at intermediate temperatures. Here we go beyond the concept of a static optimal temperature, and mathematically model how realistic temperature variation impacts transmission dynamics. We use bluetongue virus (BTV), under UK temperatures and transmitted by Culicoides midges, as a well-studied example where temperature fluctuations play a major role. We first consider an optimal temperature profile that maximizes transmission, and show that this is characterized by a warm day to maximize biting followed by cooler weather to maximize vector life expectancy. This understanding can then be related to recorded representative temperature patterns for England, the UK region which has experienced BTV cases, allowing us to infer historical transmissibility of BTV, as well as using forecasts of climate change to predict future transmissibility. Our results show that when BTV first invaded northern Europe in 2006 the cumulative transmission intensity was higher than any point in the last 50 years, although with climate change such high risks are the expected norm by 2050. Such predictions would indicate that regular BTV epizootics should be expected in the UK in the future.

Bluetongue virus spread in Europe is a consequence of climatic, landscape and vertebrate host factors as revealed by phylogeographic inference

Spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of infectious diseases are commonly driven by environmental and ecological factors. This is particularly true for vector-borne diseases because vector populations can be strongly affected by host distribution as well as by climatic and landscape variables. Here, we aim to identify environmental drivers for bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of a major vector-borne disease of ruminants that has emerged multiple times in Europe in recent decades. In order to determine the importance of climatic, landscape and host-related factors affecting BTV diffusion across Europe, we fitted different phylogeographic models to a dataset of 113 time-stamped and geo-referenced BTV genomes, representing multiple strains and serotypes. Diffusion models using continuous space revealed that terrestrial habitat below 300 m altitude, wind direction and higher livestock densities were associated with faster BTV movement. Results of discrete phylogeographic analysis involving generalized linear models broadly supported these findings, but varied considerably with the level of spatial partitioning. Contrary to common perception, we found no evidence for average temperature having a positive effect on BTV diffusion, though both methodological and biological reasons could be responsible for this result. Our study provides important insights into the drivers of BTV transmission at the landscape scale that could inform predictive models of viral spread and have implications for designing control strategies.

Systematic Assessment of the Climate Sensitivity of Important Human and Domestic Animals Pathogens in Europe

Climate change is expected to threaten human health and well-being via its effects on climate-sensitive infectious diseases, potentially changing their spatial distributions, affecting annual/seasonal cycles, or altering disease incidence and severity. Climate sensitivity of pathogens is a key indicator that diseases might respond to climate change, but the proportion of pathogens that is climate-sensitive, and their characteristics, are not known. The climate sensitivity of European human and domestic animal infectious pathogens, and the characteristics associated with sensitivity, were assessed systematically in terms of selection of pathogens and choice of literature reviewed. Sixty-three percent (N = 157) of pathogens were climate sensitive; 82% to primary drivers such as rainfall and temperature. Protozoa and helminths, vector-borne, foodborne, soilborne and waterborne transmission routes were associated with larger numbers of climate drivers. Zoonotic pathogens were more climate sensitive than human- or animal-only pathogens. Thirty-seven percent of disability-adjusted-life-years arise from human infectious diseases that are sensitive to primary climate drivers. These results help prioritize surveillance for pathogens that may respond to climate change. Although this study identifies a high degree of climate sensitivity among important pathogens, their response to climate change will be dependent on the nature of their association with climate drivers and impacts of other drivers.

Co-occurrence of viruses and mosquitoes at the vectors' optimal climate range: An underestimated risk to temperate regions?

Mosquito-borne viruses have been estimated to cause over 100 million cases of human disease annually. Many methodologies have been developed to help identify areas most at risk from transmission of these viruses. However, generally, these methodologies focus predominantly on the effects of climate on either the vectors or the pathogens they spread, and do not consider the dynamic interaction between the optimal conditions for both vector and virus. Here, we use a new approach that considers the complex interplay between the optimal temperature for virus transmission, and the optimal climate for the mosquito vectors. Using published geolocated data we identified temperature and rainfall ranges in which a number of mosquito vectors have been observed to co-occur with West Nile virus, dengue virus or chikungunya virus. We then investigated whether the optimal climate for co-occurrence of vector and virus varies between “warmer” and “cooler” adapted vectors for the same virus. We found that different mosquito vectors co-occur with the same virus at different temperatures, despite significant overlap in vector temperature ranges. Specifically, we found that co-occurrence correlates with the optimal climatic conditions for the respective vector; cooler-adapted mosquitoes tend to co-occur with the same virus in cooler conditions than their warmer-adapted counterparts. We conclude that mosquitoes appear to be most able to transmit virus in the mosquitoes’ optimal climate range, and hypothesise that this may be due to proportionally over-extended vector longevity, and other increased fitness attributes, within this optimal range. These results suggest that the threat posed by vector-competent mosquito species indigenous to temperate regions may have been underestimated, whilst the threat arising from invasive tropical vectors moving to cooler temperate regions may be overestimated.

Mosquito-borne viruses, such as dengue, are believed to cause over 100 million cases of human disease annually. Current mathematical models that aim to predict risk of virus transmission are generally either highly “mosquito-centric” or “virus-centric”. For virus transmission to occur, conditions need to be suitable for both mosquito and virus: hence, we propose a novel approach that considers the interplay between the different optimal conditions for the mosquito and the virus. Our findings indicate that warmer- or colder- adapted mosquitoes are significantly more efficient vectors in warmer or colder climates respectively. Consequently, we propose that there is currently an underestimation of risk to temperate regions from their native and cooler adapted mosquitoes.

Mechanistic model for predicting the seasonal abundance of Culicoides biting midges and the impacts of insecticide control

BACKGROUND

Understanding seasonal patterns of abundance of insect vectors is important for optimisation of control strategies of vector-borne diseases. Environmental drivers such as temperature, humidity and photoperiod influence vector abundance, but it is not generally known how these drivers combine to affect seasonal population dynamics.

METHODS

In this paper, we derive and analyse a novel mechanistic stage-structured simulation model for Culicoides biting midges-the principle vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses which cause mortality and morbidity in livestock and impact trade. We model variable life-history traits as functional forms that are dependent on environmental drivers, including air temperature, soil temperature and photoperiod. The model is fitted to Obsoletus group adult suction-trap data sampled daily at five locations throughout the UK for 2008.

RESULTS

The model predicts population dynamics that closely resemble UK field observations, including the characteristic biannual peaks of adult abundance. Using the model, we then investigate the effects of insecticide control, showing that control strategies focussing on the autumn peak of adult midge abundance have the highest impact in terms of population reduction in the autumn and averaged over the year. Conversely, control during the spring peak of adult abundance leads to adverse increases in adult abundance in the autumn peak.

CONCLUSIONS

The mechanisms of the biannual peaks of adult abundance, which are important features of midge seasonality in northern Europe and are key determinants of the risk of establishment and spread of midge-borne diseases, have been hypothesised over for many years. Our model suggests that the peaks correspond to two generations per year (bivoltine) are largely determined by pre-adult development. Furthermore, control strategies should focus on reducing the autumn peak since the immature stages are released from density-dependence regulation. We conclude that more extensive modelling of Culicoides biting midge populations in different geographical contexts will help to optimise control strategies and predictions of disease outbreaks.

Meteorological conditions and land cover as predictors for the prevalence of Bluetongue virus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of Mainland China

Bluetongue is a major disease of economic importance that affects ruminants worldwide. It is transmitted by species of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is one of the main pastoral areas for farmed sheep in Mainland China and, because of its large area, represents an ideal candidate region for the study of Bluetongue virus (BTV) distribution and prevalence characteristics. The present study conducted a detailed investigation into the spatial patterns of BTV transmission in sheep in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and assessed the inter-relationships between meteorological factors, land cover and the transmission of the virus was conducted. Reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used for the determination of BTV infection in the surveyed animals. Between June 2013 and February 2015, 6199 sheep were subjected to virus detection and 2199 sheep (35.47%) were determined to be positive for BTV. Subsequently, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to investigate the relationship between land cover, meteorological factors and the prevalence of BTV infection. Jackknife analysis revealed that the mean monthly temperature, rainfall and average wind speed were associated with the occurrence of BTV infection and that BTV infection positivity was significantly higher among animals from districts with a high percentage of grassland and forest area. Our findings indicate that meteorological factors and land cover may be important variables affecting transmission of BTV and should be taken into account in the development of future surveillance programmes for BTV.

Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management

Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.

Potential vectors of equine arboviruses in the UK

There is growing concern about the increasing risk of disease outbreaks caused by arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) in both human beings and animals. There are several mosquito-borne viral diseases that cause varying levels of morbidity and mortality in horses and that can have substantial welfare and economic ramifications. While none has been recorded in the UK, vector species for some of these viruses are present, suggesting that UK equines may be at risk. The authors undertook, therefore, the first study of mosquito species on equine premises in the UK. Mosquito magnet traps and red-box traps were used to sample adults, and larvae were collected from water sources such as tyres, buckets, ditches and pools. Several species that are known to be capable of transmitting important equine infectious arboviruses were trapped. The most abundant, with a maximum catch of 173 in 72 hours, was Ochlerotatus detritus, a competent vector of some flaviviruses; the highest densities were found near saltmarsh habitats. The most widespread species, recorded at >75 per cent of sites, was Culiseta annulata. This study demonstrates that potential mosquito vectors of arboviruses, including those known to be capable of infecting horses, are present and may be abundant on equine premises in the UK.

Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015

Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.