The effects of defaunation on plants' capacity to track climate change

Coevolutionary hotspots favour dispersal and fuel biodiversity in mutualistic landscapes under environmental changes

Mutualistic interactions are key to sustaining Earth's biodiversity. Yet, we are only beginning to understand how coevolution in mutualistic assemblages can shape the distribution and persistence of species across landscapes. Here, we combine the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution with metacommunity dynamics to understand how geographically structured selection can shape patterns of richness, dispersal, extinction and persistence of mutualistic species. In this model, species may experience strong or weak reciprocal selection imposed by mutualisms within each patch (i.e. hotspots and coldspots, respectively). Using numerical simulations, we show that mutualistic coevolution leads to a concentration of species richness at hotspots. Such an effect occurs because hotspots sustain higher rates of colonization and lower rates of extinction than coldspots, whether the environment changes or not. Importantly, under environmental changes, coldspots fail to sustain a positive colonization-to-extinction balance. Rather, species persistence within coldspots relies on hotspots acting as biodiversity sources and enhancing population dispersal across the landscape. In fact, even a few hotspots in the landscape can fuel the spatial network of dispersal of populations in the metacommunity. Our study highlights that coevolutionary hotspots can act as biodiversity sources, favouring colonization and allowing species to expand their distribution across landscapes even in changing environments. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Behavioural changes in the city: The common black garden ant defends aphids more aggressively in urban environments

Urbanisation alters biodiversity patterns and threatens to disrupt mutualistic interactions. Aside from pollination, however, little is known about how mutualisms change in cities. Our study aimed to assess how urbanisation affects the protective mutualism between ants and aphids, investigating potential behavioural changes in mutualistic ants and their implications for aphids in urban environments. To do so, we studied the protective mutualism between the pink tansy aphid (Metopeurum fuscoviride) and the black garden ant (Lasius niger) along an urbanisation gradient in Berlin, Germany. In nine locations along this gradient, we measured aphid colony dynamics and proxies for parasitism, quantified the investment of ants in tending aphids and conducted behavioural assays to test the aggressiveness of ant responses to a simulated attack on the aphids. We found that aphid colonies flourished and were equally tended by ants across the urbanisation gradient, with a consistent positive density dependence between aphid and ant numbers. However, ants from more urbanised sites responded more aggressively to the simulated attack. Our findings suggest that this protective mutualism is not only maintained in the city, but that ants might even rely more on it and defend it more aggressively, as other food resources may become scarce and more unpredictable with urbanisation. We thereby provide unique insights into this type of mutualism in the city, further diversifying the growing body of work on mutualisms across urbanisation gradients.

Biodiversity loss impacts top-down regulation of insect herbivores across ecosystem boundaries

Biodiversity loss, as driven by anthropogenic global change, imperils biosphere intactness and integrity. Ecosystem services such as top-down regulation (or biological control; BC) are susceptible to loss of extinction-prone taxa at upper trophic levels and secondary 'support' species e.g., herbivores. Here, drawing upon curated open-access interaction data, we structurally analyze trophic networks centered on the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and assess their robustness to species loss. Tri-partite networks link 80 BC organisms (invertebrate or microbial), 512 lepidopteran hosts and 1194 plants (including 147 cultivated crops) in the Neotropics. These comprise threatened herbaceous or woody plants and conservation flagships such as saturniid moths. Treating all interaction partners functionally equivalent, random herbivore loss exerts a respective 26 % or 108 % higher impact on top-down regulation in crop and non-crop settings than that of BC organisms (at 50 % loss). Equally, random loss of BC organisms affects herbivore regulation to a greater extent (13.8 % at 50 % loss) than herbivore loss mediates their preservation (11.4 %). Yet, under moderate biodiversity loss, (non-pest) herbivores prove highly susceptible to loss of BC organisms. Our topological approach spotlights how agriculturally-subsidized BC agents benefit vegetation restoration, while non-pest herbivores uphold biological control in on- and off-farm settings alike. Our work underlines how the on-farm usage of endemic biological control organisms can advance conservation, restoration, and agricultural sustainability imperatives. We discuss how integrative approaches and close interdisciplinary cooperation can spawn desirable outcomes for science, policy and practice.

Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates

Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.

Unravelling the functional and phylogenetic dimensions of novel ecosystem assemblages

Human activities are causing taxonomic rearrangements across ecosystems that often result in the emergence of novel communities (assemblies with no historical representative). It is commonly assumed that these changes in the taxonomic makeup of ecosystems also inevitably lead to changes in other aspects of biodiversity, namely functional and phylogenetic diversity. However, this assumption is not always valid, as the changes in functional and phylogenetic composition resulting from taxonomic shifts depend on the level of redundancy in the evaluated community. Therefore, we need improved theoretical frameworks to predict when we can expect coordinated or decoupled responses among these three facets of biodiversity. To advance this understanding, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that complicate establishing a link between taxonomic rearrangements driven by human activities and the associated functional and phylogenetic changes. Here, we show that is crucial to consider the expected changes in functional and phylogenetic composition as communities are reshaped owing to human drivers of biodiversity loss to forecast the impacts of novel assemblages on ecosystem functions and the services they provide to humanity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

A nature-positive future with biological invasions: theory, decision support and research needs

In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Trophic rewilding as a restoration approach under emerging novel biosphere conditions

Rewilding is a restoration approach that aims to promote self-regulating complex ecosystems by restoring non-human ecological processes while reducing human control and pressures. Rewilding is forward-looking in that it aims to enhance functionality for biodiversity, accepting and indeed promoting the dynamic nature of ecosystems, rather than fixating on static composition or structure. Rewilding is thus especially relevant in our epoch of increasingly novel biosphere conditions, driven by strong human-induced global change. Here, we explore this hypothesis in the context of trophic rewilding - the restoration of trophic complexity mediated by wild, large-bodied animals, known as 'megafauna'. This focus reflects the strong ecological impacts of large-bodied animals, their widespread loss during the last 50,000 years and their high diversity and ubiquity in the preceding 50 million years. Restoring abundant, diverse, wild-living megafauna is expected to promote vegetation heterogeneity, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling and biotic microhabitats. These are fundamental drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem function and are likely to gain importance for maintaining a biodiverse biosphere under increasingly novel ecological conditions. Non-native megafauna species may contribute to these effects as ecological surrogates of extinct species or by promoting ecological functionality within novel assemblages. Trophic rewilding has strong upscaling potential via population growth and expansion of wild fauna. It is likely to facilitate biotic adaptation to changing climatic conditions and resilience to ecosystem collapse, and to curb some negative impacts of globalization, notably the dominance of invasive alien plants. Finally, we discuss the complexities of realizing the biodiversity benefits that trophic rewilding offers under novel biosphere conditions in a heavily populated world.

Resource partitioning in a novel herbivore assemblage in South America

Human-induced species declines and extinctions have led to the downsizing of large-herbivore assemblages, with implications for many ecosystem processes. Active reintroduction of extirpated large herbivores or their functional equivalents may help to reverse this trend and restore diverse ecosystems and their processes. However, it is unclear whether resource competition between native and non-native herbivores could threaten restoration initiatives, or to what extent (re)introduced species may influence local vegetation dynamics. To answer these questions, we investigated the diets of a novel South American herbivore assemblage that includes resident native species, reintroduced native species and introduced non-native species. We examined plant composition, diet breadth and the overlap between species to describe the local herbivory profile and the potential for resource competition. Using DNA metabarcoding on faecal samples (n = 465), we analysed the diets of the herbivore assemblage in the Rincón del Socorro rewilding area of Iberá National Park, Argentina. We compared the species richness of faecal samples, the occurrence of plant families/growth forms and the compositional similarity of samples (inter- and intraspecifically). Our results indicate species-level taxonomic partitioning of plant resources by herbivores in this system. Differences in sample richness, composition and diet breadth reflected a diverse range of herbivory strategies, from grazers (capybara) to mixed feeders/browsers (brocket deer, lowland tapir). Differences in diet compositional similarity (Jaccard) revealed strong taxonomic resource partitioning. The two herbivores with the most similar diets (Pampas deer and brocket deer) still differed by more than 80%. Furthermore, all but one species (axis deer) had more similar diet composition intraspecifically than compared to the others. Overall, we found little evidence for resource competition between herbivore species. Instead, recently reintroduced native species and historically introduced non-natives are likely expanding the range of herbivory dynamics in the ecosystem. Further research will be needed to determine the full ecological impacts of these (re)introduced herbivores. In conclusion, we show clear differences in diet breadth and composition among native, reintroduced and non-native herbivore species that may be key to promoting resource partitioning, species coexistence and the restoration of ecological function.

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021-2040 (2030), 2041-2060 (2050), 2061-2080 (2070), and 2081-2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 104 km2. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift-trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Food webs: Where is the uniqueness?

Conservation planning relies on mapping areas of unique biological diversity and high vulnerability. A new study has found that unique trophic networks are threatened by warming climate in the Arctic and high human footprint in southern Europe.

Vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrate food webs to anthropogenic threats in Europe

Vertebrate species worldwide are currently facing significant declines in many populations. Although we have gained substantial knowledge about the direct threats that affect individual species, these threats only represent a fraction of the broader vertebrate threat profile, which is also shaped by species interactions. For example, threats faced by prey species can jeopardize the survival of their predators due to food resource scarcity. Yet, indirect threats arising from species interactions have received limited investigation thus far. In this study, we investigate the indirect consequences of anthropogenic threats on biodiversity in the context of European vertebrate food webs. We integrated data on trophic interactions among over 800 terrestrial vertebrates, along with their associated human-induced threats. We quantified and mapped the vulnerability of various components of the food web, including species, interactions, and trophic groups to six major threats: pollution, agricultural intensification, climate change, direct exploitation, urbanization, and invasive alien species and diseases. Direct exploitation and agricultural intensification were two major threats for terrestrial vertebrate food webs: affecting 34% and 31% of species, respectively, they threaten 85% and 69% of interactions in Europe. By integrating network ecology with threat impact assessments, our study contributes to a better understanding of the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.

Seed dispersal function of the brown bear Ursus arctos on Hokkaido Island in northern Japan: gut passage time, dispersal distance, germination, and effects of remaining pulp

Megafauna are important seed dispersers because they can disperse large quantities of seeds over long distances. In Hokkaido, Japan, the largest terrestrial animal is the brown bear (Ursus arctos) and other megafauna seed dispersers are lacking. Thus, brown bears are expected to have an important function as seed dispersers in Hokkaido. In this study, we, for the first time, evaluated the seed dispersal function of brown bears in Hokkaido using three fleshy-fruited trees and studied: (1) gut passage time (GPT) in feeding experiments, (2) seed dispersal distance using tracking data of wild bears, and (3) the effect of gut passage and pulp removal on germination rate. Most seeds were defecated intact, and less than 6% were broken. The average GPT without pulp was 3 h and 56 min to 6 h and 13 min, depending on the plant and trial. Each plant's average simulated seed dispersal distance was 202-512 m. The dispersal distance of Actinidia arguta seeds with pulp was significantly longer than those without pulp because of their longer GPT. The germination rate of defecated seeds without pulp was 19-51%, depending on the plant, and was significantly higher or not different comparing with that of seeds with pulp. We concluded that brown bears in Hokkaido are effective seed dispersers. In managing brown bears in Hokkaido, such ecological functions should be considered along with conserving the bear population and reducing human-bear conflicts.

Long-term vegetation trajectories to inform nature recovery strategies: The Greater Côa Valley as a case study

Active and passive approaches to rewilding and ecological restoration are increasingly considered to promote nature recovery at scale. However, historical data on vegetation trajectories have rarely been used to inform decisions on whether active or passive management is most appropriate to aid recovery of a specific ecosystem, which can lead to sub-optimal approaches being deployed and reduced biodiversity benefits. To demonstrate how understanding past changes can inform future management strategies, this study used satellite remote sensing data to analyse the changes in land cover and primary productivity within the Greater Côa Valley in Portugal, which has experienced wide-scale land abandonment. Results show that some areas in the Valley regenerated well following land abandonment in the region, leading to a more heterogeneous landscape of habitats for wildlife, whereas in other areas passive recovery was slow. As Rewilding Portugal intensifies its nature recovery efforts in the region, this study calls for strategic deployment of passive and active approaches to maximise conservation benefits. More broadly, our results highlight how baseline vegetational trajectories and contextual information can help inform whether active or passive management approaches may be suitable on a site-by-site basis for both rewilding and restoration projects.

More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change

Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts.

Soil properties constrain predicted poleward migration of plants under climate change

Many plant species are predicted to migrate poleward in response to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to quantify future suitable habitats, but they often neglect soil properties, despite the importance of soil for plant fitness. As soil properties often change along latitudinal gradients, higher-latitude soils might be more or less suitable than average conditions within the current ranges of species, thereby accelerating or slowing potential poleward migration. In this study, we built three SDMs - one with only climate predictors, one with only soil predictors, and one with both - for each of 1870 plant species in Eastern North America, in order to investigate the relative importance of soil properties in determining plant distributions and poleward shifts under climate change. While climate variables were the most important predictors, soil properties also had a substantial influence on continental-scale plant distributions. Under future climate scenarios, models including soil predicted much smaller northward shifts in distributions than climate-only models (c. 40% reduction). Our findings strongly suggest that high-latitude soils are likely to impede ongoing plant migration, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating soil properties into models and predictions for plant distributions and migration under environmental change.

Intraspecific variation in seed size is mediated by seed dispersal modes and animal dispersers - evidence from a global-scale dataset

Seed dispersal mechanisms play a crucial role in driving evolutionary changes in seed and fruit traits. While previous studies have primarily focussed on the mean or maximum values of these traits, there is also significant intraspecific variation in them. Therefore, it is pertinent to investigate whether dispersal mechanisms can explain intraspecific variations in these traits. Taking seed size as a case study, we compiled a global dataset comprising 3424 records of intraspecific variation in seed size (IVSS), belonging to 691 plant species and 131 families. We provided the first comprehensive quantification of dispersal mechanism effects on IVSS. Biotic-dispersed species exhibited a larger IVSS than abiotic-dispersed species. Synzoochory species had a larger IVSS than endozoochory, epizoochory, and myrmecochory species. Vertebrate-dispersed species exhibited a larger IVSS than invertebrate-dispersed species, and species dispersed by birds exhibited a larger IVSS than mammal-dispersed species. Additionally, a clear negative correlation was detected between IVSS and disperser body mass. Our results prove that the IVSS is associated with the seed dispersal mechanism. This study advances our understanding of the dispersal mechanisms' crucial role in seed size evolution, encompassing not only the mean value but also the variation.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Szechwan Rat Snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) and Its Response to Climate Change in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park

Climate change is a significant driver of changes in the distribution patterns of species and poses a threat to biodiversity, potentially resulting in species extinctions. Investigating the potential distribution of rare and endangered species is crucial for understanding their responses to climate change and for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem management. The Szechwan rat snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) is an endemic and endangered species co-distributed with giant pandas, and studying its potential distribution contributes to a better understanding of the distribution pattern of endangered species. In this study, we confirmed seven presence points of this species in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park, and selected eleven key factors to predict the potential distribution of E. perlacea under current and future scenarios using MaxEnt models. Our study consistently achieved AUC values exceeding 0.79, meeting the precision requirements of the models. The results indicated that the high potential distribution area of E. perlacea is mainly located near Yunwu mountain and the giant panda rewilding and reintroduction base, accounting for approximately 12% of the protected area. Moreover, we identified the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of E. perlacea as the distance from streams and the slope degree, with their contribution rates exceeding 41% and 31%, respectively. In comparison to the current scenario, the potential habitat range for E. perlacea did not show an overall reduction in the context of future climate scenarios. To ensure the long-term preservation of E. perlacea, it is advisable to validate its actual distribution based on the models' results. Particular attention should be given to safeguarding its core distribution areas and raising awareness among residents within the potential distribution range about the conservation of E. perlacea.

Climate change should drive mammal defaunation in tropical dry forests

Human-induced climate change has intensified negative impacts on socioeconomic factors, the environment, and biodiversity, including changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in global average temperatures. Drylands are particularly at risk, with projections suggesting they will become hotter, drier, and less suitable for a significant portion of their species, potentially leading to mammal defaunation. We use ecological niche modelling and community ecology biodiversity metrics to examine potential geographical range shifts of non-volant mammal species in the largest Neotropical dryland, the Caatinga, and evaluate impacts of climate change on mammal assemblages. According to projections, 85% of the mammal species will lose suitable habitats, with one quarter of species projected to completely lose suitable habitats by 2060. This will result in a decrease in species richness for more than 90% of assemblages and an increase in compositional similarity to nearby assemblages (i.e., reduction in spatial beta diversity) for 70% of the assemblages. Small-sized mammals will be the most impacted and lose most of their suitable habitats, especially in highlands. The scenario is even worse in the eastern half of Caatinga where habitat destruction already prevails, compounding the threats faced by species there. While species-specific responses can vary with respect to dispersal, behavior, and energy requirements, our findings indicate that climate change can drive mammal assemblages to biotic homogenization and species loss, with drastic changes in assemblage trophic structure. For successful long-term socioenvironmental policy and conservation planning, it is critical that findings from biodiversity forecasts are considered.

Resurrected seeds from herbarium specimens reveal rapid evolution of drought resistance in a selfing annual

PREMISE

Increased aridity and drought associated with climate change are exerting unprecedented selection pressures on plant populations. Whether populations can rapidly adapt, and which life history traits might confer increased fitness under drought, remain outstanding questions.

METHODS

We utilized a resurrection ecology approach, leveraging dormant seeds from herbarium collections to assess whether populations of Plantago patagonica from the semi-arid Colorado Plateau have rapidly evolved in response to approximately ten years of intense drought in the region. We quantified multiple traits associated with drought escape and drought resistance and assessed the survival of ancestors and descendants under simulated drought.

RESULTS

Descendant populations displayed a significant shift in resource allocation, in which they invested less in reproductive tissues and relatively more in both above- and below-ground vegetative tissues. Plants with greater leaf biomass survived longer under terminal drought; moreover, even after accounting for the effect of increased leaf biomass, descendant seedlings survived drought longer than their ancestors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results document rapid adaptive evolution in response to climate change in a selfing annual and suggest that shifts in tissue allocation strategies may underlie adaptive responses to drought in arid or semi-arid environments. This work also illustrates a novel approach, documenting that under specific circumstances, seeds from herbarium specimens may provide an untapped source of dormant propagules for future resurrection experiments.

Worldwide Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene population declines in extant megafauna are associated with Homo sapiens expansion rather than climate change

The worldwide extinction of megafauna during the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene is evident from the fossil record, with dominant theories suggesting a climate, human or combined impact cause. Consequently, two disparate scenarios are possible for the surviving megafauna during this time period - they could have declined due to similar pressures, or increased in population size due to reductions in competition or other biotic pressures. We therefore infer population histories of 139 extant megafauna species using genomic data which reveal population declines in 91% of species throughout the Quaternary period, with larger species experiencing the strongest decreases. Declines become ubiquitous 32-76 kya across all landmasses, a pattern better explained by worldwide Homo sapiens expansion than by changes in climate. We estimate that, in consequence, total megafauna abundance, biomass, and energy turnover decreased by 92-95% over the past 50,000 years, implying major human-driven ecosystem restructuring at a global scale.

Herbivory limits success of vegetation restoration globally

Restoring vegetation in degraded ecosystems is an increasingly common practice for promoting biodiversity and ecological function, but successful implementation is hampered by an incomplete understanding of the processes that limit restoration success. By synthesizing terrestrial and aquatic studies globally (2594 experimental tests from 610 articles), we reveal substantial herbivore control of vegetation under restoration. Herbivores at restoration sites reduced vegetation abundance more strongly (by 89%, on average) than those at relatively undegraded sites and suppressed, rather than fostered, plant diversity. These effects were particularly pronounced in regions with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Excluding targeted herbivores temporarily or introducing their predators improved restoration by magnitudes similar to or greater than those achieved by managing plant competition or facilitation. Thus, managing herbivory is a promising strategy for enhancing vegetation restoration efforts.

A global assessment of the Raunkiaeran shortfall in plants: geographic biases in our knowledge of plant traits

This article is part of the Special Collection ‘Global plant diversity and distribution’. See https://www.newphytologist.org/global-plant-diversity for more details.

Megaherbivores provide biotic resistance against alien plant dominance

While human-driven biological invasions are rapidly spreading, finding scalable and effective control methods poses an unresolved challenge. Here, we assess whether megaherbivores-herbivores reaching ≥1,000 kg of body mass-offer a nature-based solution to plant invasions. Invasive plants are generally adapted to maximize vegetative growth. Megaherbivores, with broad dietary tolerances, could remove large biomass of established plants, facilitating new plant growth. We used a massive dataset obtained from 26,838 camera stations and 158,979 vegetation plots to assess the relationships between megaherbivores, native plants and alien plants across India (~121,330 km2). We found a positive relationship between megaherbivore abundance and native plant richness and abundance, and a concomitant reduction in alien plant abundance. This relationship was strongest in protected areas with midproductive ecosystem and high megaherbivore density but it was lost in areas where thicket-forming alien plants predominated (>40% cover). By incorporating the role of ecosystem productivity, plants traits and densities of megaherbivores on megaherbivore-vegetation relationships, our study highlights a function of megaherbivores in controlling alien plant proliferation and facilitating diverse native plants in invaded ecosystems. The study shows great potential for megafauna-based trophic rewilding as a nature-based solution to counteract dominance of plant invasions.

Large mammals and trees in eastern monsoonal China: anthropogenic losses since the Late Pleistocene and restoration prospects in the Anthropocene

Massive human-induced declines of large-sized animals and trees (megabiota) from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene have resulted in downsized ecosystems across the globe, in which components and functions have been greatly simplified. In response, active restoration projects of extant large-sized species or functional substitutes are needed at large scales to promote ecological processes that are important for ecosystem self-regulation and biodiversity maintenance. Despite the desired global scope of such projects, they have received little attention in East Asia. Here, we synthesise the biogeographical and ecological knowledge of megabiota in ancient and modern China, with relevant data mostly located in eastern monsoonal China (EMC), aiming to assess its potential for restoring functionally intact ecosystems modulated by megabiota. We found that during the Late Pleistocene, 12 mammalian megafaunal (carnivores ≥15 kg and herbivores ≥500 kg) species disappeared from EMC: one carnivore Crocuta ultima (East Asian spotted hyena) and 11 herbivores including six megaherbivores (≥1000 kg). The relative importance of climate change and humans in driving these losses remains debated, despite accumulating evidence in favour of the latter. Later massive depletion of megafauna and large-sized (45-500 kg) herbivores has been closely associated with agricultural expansion and societal development, especially during the late Holocene. While forests rich in large timber trees (33 taxa in written records) were common in the region 2000-3000 years ago, millennial-long logging has resulted in considerable range contractions and at least 39 threatened species. The wide distribution of C. ultima, which likely favoured open or semi-open habitats (like extant spotted hyenas), suggests the existence of mosaic open and closed vegetation in the Late Pleistocene across EMC, in line with a few pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and potentially, or at least partially, reflecting herbivory by herbivorous megafauna. The widespread loss of megaherbivores may have strongly compromised seed dispersal for both megafruit (fleshy fruits with widths ≥40 mm) and non-megafruit plant species in EMC, especially in terms of extra-long-distance (>10 km) dispersal, which is critical for plant species that rely on effective biotic agents to track rapid climate change. The former occurrence of large mammals and trees have translated into rich material and non-material heritages passed down across generations. Several reintroduction projects have been implemented or are under consideration, with the case of Elaphurus davidianus a notable success in recovering wild populations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, although trophic interactions with native carnivorous megafauna have not yet been restored. Lessons of dealing with human-wildlife conflicts are key to public support for maintaining landscapes shared with megafauna and large herbivores in the human-dominated Anthropocene. Meanwhile, potential human-wildlife conflicts, e.g. public health risks, need to be scientifically informed and effectively reduced. The Chinese government's strong commitment to improved policies of ecological protection and restoration (e.g. ecological redlines and national parks) provides a solid foundation for a scaling-up contribution to the global scope needed for solving the crisis of biotic downsizing and ecosystem degradation.

Feedback loops between 3D vegetation structure and ecological functions of animals

Ecosystems function in a series of feedback loops that can change or maintain vegetation structure. Vegetation structure influences the ecological niche space available to animals, shaping many aspects of behaviour and reproduction. In turn, animals perform ecological functions that shape vegetation structure. However, most studies concerning three-dimensional vegetation structure and animal ecology consider only a single direction of this relationship. Here, we review these separate lines of research and integrate them into a unified concept that describes a feedback mechanism. We also show how remote sensing and animal tracking technologies are now available at the global scale to describe feedback loops and their consequences for ecosystem functioning. An improved understanding of how animals interact with vegetation structure in feedback loops is needed to conserve ecosystems that face major disruptions in response to climate and land-use change.

Tropical Trees Will Need to Acclimate to Rising Temperatures-But Can They?

For tropical forests to survive anthropogenic global warming, trees will need to avoid rising temperatures through range shifts and "species migrations" or tolerate the newly emerging conditions through adaptation and/or acclimation. In this literature review, we synthesize the available knowledge to show that although many tropical tree species are shifting their distributions to higher, cooler elevations, the rates of these migrations are too slow to offset ongoing changes in temperatures, especially in lowland tropical rainforests where thermal gradients are shallow or nonexistent. We also show that the rapidity and severity of global warming make it unlikely that tropical tree species can adapt (with some possible exceptions). We argue that the best hope for tropical tree species to avoid becoming "committed to extinction" is individual-level acclimation. Although several new methods are being used to test for acclimation, we unfortunately still do not know if tropical tree species can acclimate, how acclimation abilities vary between species, or what factors may prevent or facilitate acclimation. Until all of these questions are answered, our ability to predict the fate of tropical species and tropical forests-and the many services that they provide to humanity-remains critically impaired.

The reliability of regional ecological knowledge to build local interaction networks: a test using seed-dispersal networks across land-bridge islands

Building ecological networks is the fundamental basis of depicting how species in communities interact, but sampling complex interaction networks is extremely labour intensive. Recently, indirect ecological information has been applied to build interaction networks. Here we propose to extend the source of indirect ecological information, and applied regional ecological knowledge to build local interaction networks. Using a high-resolution dataset consisting of 22 locally observed networks with 17 572 seed-dispersal events, we test the reliability of indirectly derived local networks based on regional ecological knowledge (REK) across islands. We found that species richness strongly influenced 'local interaction rewiring' (i.e. the proportion of locally observed interactions among regionally interacting species), and all network properties were biased using REK-based networks. Notably, species richness and local interaction rewiring strongly affected estimations of REK-based network structures. However, locally observed and REK-based networks detected the same trends of how network structure correlates to island area and isolation. These results suggest that we should use REK-based networks cautiously for reflecting actual interaction patterns of local networks, but highlight that REK-based networks have great potential for comparative studies across environmental gradients. The use of indirect regional ecological information may thus advance our understanding of biogeographical patterns of species interactions.

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

Under the changing climate, the persistence of Afrotemperate taxa may be threatened as suitable habitat availability decreases. The unique disjunct ranges of podocarps in southern Africa raise questions about the persistence of these species under climate change. Here, we identified likely environmental drivers of these distributions, characterized the current and future (2070) environmental niches, and projected distributions of four podocarp species in South Africa. Species distribution models were conducted using species locality data for Afrocarpus falcatus, Podocarpus latifolius, Pseudotropheus elongatus and Podocarpus henkelii and both historical climate data (1970-2000) and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5, 2061-2080) to estimate the current and future distributions. We also used this opportunity to identify the most important climatic variables that likely govern each species' distribution. Using niche overlap estimates, a similarity test, and indices of niche expansion, stability and unfilling, we explored how niches change under different climate scenarios. The distribution of the study species was governed by the maximum temperature of the warmest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation of the wettest, driest and warmest quarters. The current distribution of A. falcatus was predicted to expand to higher elevations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Podocarpus henkelii was predicted to lose most of its suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 and expand under RCP 8.5; however, this was the opposite for P. elongatus and P. latifolius. Interestingly, P. elongatus, which had the smallest geographic distribution, showed the most vulnerability to climate change in comparison to the other podocarps. Mapping the distribution of podocarps and understanding the differences in their current and future climate niches provide insight into potential climate drivers of podocarp persistence and the potential for adaptation of these species. Overall, these results suggest that P. elongatus and P. henkelii may expand to novel environmental niches.

The turnover of plant-frugivore interactions along plant range expansion: consequences for natural colonization processes

Plant-animal mutualisms such as seed dispersal are key interactions for sustaining plant range shifts. It remains elusive whether the organization of interactions with seed dispersers is reconfigured along the expansion landscape template and, if so, whether its effects accelerate or slow colonization. Here we analyse plant-frugivore interactions in a scenario of rapid population expansion of a Mediterranean juniper. We combined network analyses with field surveys, sampling interactions between individual plants and frugivores by DNA-barcoding and phototrapping over two seasons. We assess the role of intrinsic and extrinsic intraspecific variability in shaping interactions and we estimate the individual plant contributions to the seed rain. The whole interaction network was highly structured, with a distinct set of modules including individual plants and frugivore species arranged concordantly along the expansion gradient. The modular configuration was partially shaped by individual neighbourhood context (density and fecundity) and phenotypic traits (cone size). Interaction reconfiguration resulted in a higher and more uneven propagule contribution, with most effective dispersers having a prominent role at the colonization front stand, where a distinct subset of early arriving plants dominated the seed rain. Our study offers new insights into the key role of mutualistic interactions in colonization scenarios by promoting fast plant expansion processes.

Climate change decouples dominant tree species in African savannas

To understand how two dominant African savanna trees will continue to respond to climate changes, we examined their regeneration niche and adult tree distributions. Specifically, we wanted to (1) determine if distributional patterns were shifting, (2) predict future distributions under different climate change scenarios and (3) evaluate the realism of predicted future distributions. We randomly placed 40 grids into 6 strata across a climate gradient in the kingdom of Eswatini. Within these grids, we sampled adult and seedling marula (Scelerocarya birrea) and knobthorn (Senegalia nigrecens) trees and used the data to model their abundance. Next, we quantified shifts in distributional patterns (e.g., expansion or contraction) by measuring the current and projected areas of overlap between seedling and adult trees. Finally, we predicted future distributions of abundance based on predicted climate conditions. We found knobthorn seedlings within a small portion of the adult distribution, suggesting it was unlikely to track climate changes. Alternatively, finding marula seedlings on and beyond one edge of the adult distribution, suggested its range would shift toward cooler climates. Predicted future distributions suggest suitable climate for both species would transition out of savannas and into grasslands. Future projections (2041-2070) appeared consistent with observed distributions of marula, but knobthorn predictions were unrealistic given the lack of evidence for regeneration outside of its current range. The idiosyncratic responses of these species to climate change are likely to decouple these keystone structures in the coming decades and are likely to have considerable cascading effects including the potential rearrangement of faunal communities.

Common seed dispersers contribute most to the persistence of a fleshy-fruited tree

Mutualistic interactions are by definition beneficial for each contributing partner. However, it is insufficiently understood how mutualistic interactions influence partners throughout their lives. Here, we used animal species-explicit, microhabitat-structured integral projection models to quantify the effect of seed dispersal by 20 animal species on the full life cycle of the tree Frangula alnus in Białowieża Forest, Eastern Poland. Our analysis showed that animal seed dispersal increased population growth by 2.5%. The effectiveness of animals as seed dispersers was strongly related to the interaction frequency but not the quality of seed dispersal. Consequently, the projected population decline due to simulated species extinction was driven by the loss of common rather than rare mutualist species. Our results support the notion that frequently interacting mutualists contribute most to the persistence of the populations of their partners, underscoring the role of common species for ecosystem functioning and nature conservation.

How Does Changing Environment Influence Plant Seed Movements as Populations of Dispersal Vectors Decline?

Plants differ widely in their ability to find tolerable climatic ranges through seed dispersal, depending on their life-history traits and habitat characteristics. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a systematic review on seed dispersal mechanisms was conducted to elucidate plant seed movements amid changing environments. Here, the highest relative count of studies was found in Spain (16.47%), followed by Brazil (14.12%), and the USA (14.12%). The megadiverse, hotspot countries (e.g., Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, India, and Indonesia) and Africa (Tanzania, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo) have very low to no data about the reviewed topic. The effects of land use changes, habitat degradation/disturbances, climate, and extreme weather conditions on seed dispersal mechanisms and agents had the highest share of studies across topics and countries. Plant diversity and distribution of anemochorous, endozoochorous, epizoochorous, hydrochorous, myrmecochorous, and ornithochorous species are seriously affected by changing environments due to altered long-distance seed dispersal. The fruit types commonly associated with endozoochory and ornithochory are species with achene, capsule, drupe, fleshy, and nut fruits/seeds, whereas achene, capsule, samara/winged seeds are associated with anemochory. The present review provides a summary of evidence on how plants are affected by climate change as populations of dispersal vectors decline. Finally, recommendations for further study were made based on the identified knowledge gaps.

Animal-mediated plant niche tracking in a changing climate

Over half of plant species are animal-dispersed, and our understanding of how animals can help plants move in response to climate change - a process known as niche tracking - is limited, but advancing rapidly. Recent research efforts find evidence that animals are helping plants track their niches. They also identify key conditions needed for animal-mediated niche tracking to occur, including alignment of the timing of seed availability, the directionality of animal movements, and microhabitat conditions where seeds are deposited. A research framework that measures niche tracking effectiveness by considering all parts of the niche-tracking process, and links together data and models from multiple disciplines, will lead to further insight and inform actions to help ecosystems adapt to a changing world.

Long-Term Seed Dispersal within an Asymmetric Lizard-Plant Interaction

During the last 24 years, the mutualistic interaction between the dead horse arum, Helicodiceros muscivorus, and the Balearic lizard, Podarcis lilfordi, was studied on Aire Island (Balearic Islands, Spain). From a small population of a hundred plants, the dead horse arum expanded extraordinarily throughout the island, reaching the highest known densities of the species and occupying areas of the island where it was not previously present. The current abundance of plants is a direct effect of the frugivorous activity of the Balearic lizard, which is the main, if not the only, effective seed disperser of the plant on Aire Island. However, abiotic factors predominated over biotic factors in driving abundance of plants. Over the years, plant densities varied significantly depending on the aridity of the island, with higher densities recorded in drier years. Lizards’ frugivorous activity and dispersal intensity was inversely correlated with annual rainfall. We found higher dispersal intensity in years with lower rainfall. We propose that the years of lower rainfall are those in which there is a lower prey availability. In such years, lizards compensate the shortage of other trophic resources with a more intense consumption of dead horse arum fruits. The mutualistic interaction is therefore asymmetric, since there is a greater influence of the frugivorous activity of the lizards on the plants than of the plants on lizards. It is, in short, a system chronically out of balance.

Mismatch between IUCN range maps and species interactions data illustrated using the Serengeti food web

Background

Range maps are a useful tool to describe the spatial distribution of species. However, they need to be used with caution, as they essentially represent a rough approximation of a species' suitable habitats. When stacked together, the resulting communities in each grid cell may not always be realistic, especially when species interactions are taken into account. Here we show the extent of the mismatch between range maps, provided by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and species interactions data. More precisely, we show that local networks built from those stacked range maps often yield unrealistic communities, where species of higher trophic levels are completely disconnected from primary producers.

Methodology

We used the well-described Serengeti food web of mammals and plants as our case study, and identify areas of data mismatch within predators' range maps by taking into account food web structure. We then used occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to investigate where data is most lacking.

Results

We found that most predator ranges comprised large areas without any overlapping distribution of their prey. However, many of these areas contained GBIF occurrences of the predator.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the mismatch between both data sources could be due either to the lack of information about ecological interactions or the geographical occurrence of prey. We finally discuss general guidelines to help identify defective data among distributions and interactions data, and we recommend this method as a valuable way to assess whether the occurrence data that are being used, even if incomplete, are ecologically accurate.

Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia's most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta's southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.

Simulated climate warming decreases fruit number but increases seed mass

Climate warming is changing plant sexual reproduction, having consequences for species distribution and community dynamics. However, the magnitude and direction of plant reproductive efforts (e.g., number of flowers) and success (e.g., number and mass of fruits or seeds) in response to warming have not been well-characterized. Here, we generated a global dataset of simulated warming experiments, consisting of 477 pairwise comparisons for 164 terrestrial species. We found evidence that warming overall decreased fruit number and increased seed mass, but little evidence that warming influenced flower number, fruit mass, or seed number. The warming effects on seed mass were regulated by the pollination type, and insect-pollinated plants exhibited a stronger response to warming than wind-pollinated plants. We found strong evidence that warming increased the mass of seeds for the nondominant species but no evidence of this for the dominant species. There was no evidence that phylogenetic relatedness explained the effects of warming on plant reproductive effort and success. In addition, the effects of warming on flowering onset negatively related to the responses in terms of the number of fruits and seeds to warming, revealing a cascading effect of plant reproductive development. These findings provide the first quantification of the response of terrestrial plant sexual reproduction to warming and suggest that plants may increase their fitness by producing heavier seeds under a warming climate.

Analyzing trophic ecosystem functions with the interaction functional space

Quantifying the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change requires a better understanding of how trophic ecosystem functions emerge. So far, trophic ecosystem functions have been studied from the perspective of either functional diversity or network ecology. To integrate these two perspectives, we propose the interaction functional space (IFS) a conceptual framework to simultaneously analyze the effects of traits and interactions on trophic functions. We exemplify the added value of our framework for seed dispersal and wood decomposition and show how species interactions influence the relationship between functional trait diversity and trophic functions. We propose future applications for a range of functions where the IFS can help to elucidate mechanisms underpinning trophic functions and facilitate understanding of functional changes in ecosystems amidst global change.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

Effects of habitat disturbance on the reproductive ecology of Arum pictum ssp. sagittifolium: from pollination to seedling recruitment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The loss of natural habitats may strongly affect the fitness of plants that depend on animals for reproduction. However, very little is known regarding the differential effects of habitat disturbance on the distinct phases of the reproductive cycle of plants, especially in non-rewarding species.

METHODS

We assessed the effects of habitat disturbance on the entire reproductive cycle of Arum pictum ssp. sagittifolium, a species with deceptive pollination that is endemic to the western Mediterranean Basin. For this, we performed hand-pollination and bagging experiments, evaluated the role of pollinators and dispersers on reproduction, and estimated seedling recruitment in three natural and three disturbed populations (according to their surrounding natural habitat) in Mallorca Island.

KEY RESULTS

Pollinators were sphaerocerid flies (mainly Coproica, with ~50 % of visits) and staphylinid beetles, and were required for sexual reproduction. Habitat disturbance differently affected the reproductive phases of A. pictum ssp. sagittifolium. Habitat disturbance had a positive effect on Shannon pollinator diversity (but not on pollinator richness), and total pollinator and Coproica abundance were three times higher in disturbed habitats, where overall seed production was also ~30 % higher in natural habitats. Seed production increased with Coproica abundance, but only in natural habitats. Seed dispersers of A. pictum ssp. sagittifolium were birds, mainly Sylvia atricapilla. Although habitat disturbance did not influence disperser diversity or abundance, the majority of seedlings appeared under adult plants and in natural habitats.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall recruitment was higher in natural habitats, but this effect could have been masked by only assessing pollinator and disperser numbers, as processes related to the quality of these interactions might be influencing fitness. Our study highlights the need to study different reproductive phases and their multiple components and processes to properly understand the effects of habitat disturbance on the regeneration of plant populations.