Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

Strategies to Close the PrEP Uptake Gap Among Transgender People and Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tshwane, South Africa: Perspectives from the Community

HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake among transgender (TG) people and gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM) remains low, despite South Africa being the first African country to approve PrEP. This mixed-methods study used a two-phase explanatory sequential design: (1) quantitative analysis of cross-sectional surveys followed by (2) qualitative in-depth interviews. This study explored facilitators and barriers to PrEP uptake to identify strategies to increase utilization in these key populations. We conducted 202 cross-sectional surveys and 20 in-depth interviews between July 2021 and March 2022 in Soshanguve, Tshwane, Gauteng. Quantitative data were analyzed using univariate logistic regression; thematic analysis was performed for qualitative data. Findings show high willingness to use PrEP but low PrEP uptake. We outline strategies to facilitate PrEP use: (1) demystify daily PrEP by deploying community-engaged PrEP education campaigns; (2) capitalize on existing peer networks; and (3) expand accessible and culturally responsive PrEP service delivery models. We provide feasible recommendations to close the PrEP uptake gap in these key populations in South Africa.

Attrition Rates in HIV Viral Load Monitoring and Factors Associated With Overdue Testing Among Children Within South Africa's Antiretroviral Treatment Program: Retrospective Descriptive Analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies in South Africa have reported low HIV viral load (VL) suppression and high attrition rates within the pediatric HIV treatment program.

OBJECTIVE

Using routine laboratory data, we evaluated HIV VL monitoring, including mobility and overdue VL (OVL) testing, within 5 priority districts in South Africa.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) data for children and adolescents aged 1-15 years having undergone HIV VL testing between May 1, 2019, and April 30, 2020, from 152 facilities within the City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane, eThekwini, uMgungundlovu, and Zululand. HIV VL test-level data were deduplicated to patient-level data using the NHLS CDW (Corporate Data Warehouse) probabilistic record-linking algorithm and then further manually deduplicated. An OVL was defined as no subsequent VL determined within 18 months of the last test. Variables associated with the last VL test, including age, sex, VL findings, district type, and facility type, are described. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify variables associated with an OVL test.

RESULTS

Among 21,338 children and adolescents aged 1-15 years who had an HIV VL test, 72.70% (n=15,512) had a follow-up VL test within 18 months. Furthermore, 13.33% (n=2194) of them were followed up at a different facility, of whom 3.79% (n=624) were in a different district and 1.71% (n=281) were in a different province. Among patients with a VL of ≥1000 RNA copies/mL of plasma, the median time to subsequent testing was 6 (IQR 4-10) months. The younger the age of the patient, the greater the proportion with an OVL, ranging from a peak of 52% among 1-year-olds to a trough of 21% among 14-year-olds. On multivariate analysis, 2 consecutive HIV VL findings of ≥1000 RNA copies/mL of plasma were associated with an increased adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of having an OVL (AOR 2.07, 95% CI 1.71-2.51). Conversely, patients examined at a hospital (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.96), those with ≥2 previous tests (AOR 0.78, 95% CI 0.70-0.86), those examined in a rural district (AOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54-0.73), and older age groups of 5-9 years (AOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.47-0.65) and 10-14 years (AOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.44-0.59) compared to 1-4 years were associated with a significantly decreased odds of having an OVL test.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable attrition occurs within South Africa's pediatric HIV treatment program, with over one-fourth of children having an OVL test 18 months subsequent to their previous test. In particular, younger children and those with virological failure were found to be at increased risk of having an OVL test. Improved HIV VL monitoring is essential for improving outcomes within South Africa's pediatric antiretroviral treatment program.

The cyclical cascade of HIV care: Temporal care engagement trends within a population-wide cohort

BACKGROUND

The traditional HIV treatment cascade aims to visualise the journey of each person living with HIV from diagnosis, through initiation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treatment success, represented by virological suppression. This representation has been a pivotal tool in highlighting and quantifying sequential gaps along the care continuum. There is longstanding recognition, however, that this may oversimplify the complexity of real-world engagement with HIV services in settings with mature high-burden HIV epidemics. A complementary "cyclical" cascade has been proposed to represent the processes of disengagement at different points on the care continuum, with multiple pathways to re-engagement, although the feasibility of implementing this at scale has been uncertain. This study aimed to populate, refine, and explore the utility of a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade, using routine data from a high-burden HIV setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This observational cohort study leveraged person-level data on all people living with HIV in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, who accessed public health services in the 2 years prior to 31 December 2023. Programme data from disease registers were complemented by data from pharmacy and laboratory systems. At study closure, 494 370 people were included, constituting 93% of those of those estimated to be living with HIV in the province, of whom 355 104 were on ART. Substantial disengagement from HIV care was evident at every point on the cascade. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Almost all those currently disengaged had prior experience of treatment. While re-engagement was also common, overall treatment coverage had increased slowly over 5 years. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens was dramatic with good virological outcomes for those in care, notwithstanding a clearly discernible impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on viral load (VL) testing. People currently engaged and disengaged in care are similar with respect to age and gender. Those who died or disengaged recently were previously distributed across a range of cascade statuses, and a substantial proportion of those newly initiating and re-initiating treatment were no longer on treatment 6 months later. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services, and out-of-facility mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Using routine data, it was possible to populate and automate a cyclical cascade of HIV care that continuously captured the nonlinear care journeys of individuals living with HIV. In this generalised mature HIV epidemic, most people are treatment experienced. Disengagement is common and occurs at various points along the cascade, making it challenging to identify high-impact intervention opportunities. While historical HIV cascades remain valuable for target setting and service monitoring, they can be complemented with insights from more detailed cyclical cascades.

Who is killing South African men? A retrospective descriptive study of forensic and police investigations into male homicide

Not much is known about the perpetrators of male homicide in South Africa, which has rates seven times the global average. For the country's first ever male homicide study we describe the epidemiology of perpetrators, their relationship with victims and victim profiles of men killed by male versus female perpetrators. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through forensic and police investigations, calculating victim and perpetrator homicide rates by age, sex, race, external cause, employment status and setting, stratified by victim-perpetrator relationships. For perpetrators, we reported suspected drug and alcohol use, prior convictions, gang-involvement and homicide by multiple perpetrators. Perpetrators were acquaintances in 63% of 5594 cases in which a main perpetrator was identified. Sharp objects followed by guns were the main external causes of death. The highest rates were recorded in urban informal areas among unemployed men across all victim-perpetrator relationship types. Recreational settings including bars featured prominently. Homicides clustered around festive periods and weekends, both of which are associated with heavy episodic drinking. Perpetrator alcohol use was reported in 41% of homicides by family members and 50% by acquaintances. Other drug use was less common (9% overall). Of 379 men killed by female perpetrators, 60% were killed by intimate partners. Perpetrator alcohol use was reported in approximately half of female-on-male murders. Female firearm use was exclusively against intimate partners. No men were killed by male intimate partners. Violence prevention, which in South Africa has mainly focused on women and children, needs to be integrated into an inclusive approach. Profiling victims and perpetrators of male homicide is an important and necessary first step to challenge prevailing masculine social constructs that men are neither vulnerable to, nor the victims of, trauma and to identify groups at risk of victimisation that could benefit from specific interventions and policies.

Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

After successful intensive interventions to rapidly increase HIV awareness, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and viral suppression, HIV programmes in eastern and southern Africa are considering scaling back of some interventions, such as widespread general population HIV testing. We aimed to model whether scaling back of general population HIV testing in South Africa could result in a resurgence of the HIV epidemic or substantial slowing of declines in HIV incidence, resulting in increased long-term ART.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we used the Thembisa 4.5 model (a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission in South Africa) to project the South African HIV epidemic to 2100 assuming the continuation of 2022 epidemiological conditions and HIV programme implementation. We assessed how implementing reductions in general population HIV testing services in 2025 (while maintaining antenatal, symptom-based, and risk-based testing modalities and other HIV prevention services at 2022 levels) would affect HIV incidence and prevalence among people aged 15-49 years, the year in which incidence would reach one per 1000 people aged 15-49 years (the threshold for virtual elimination of HIV), and associated costs, as well as numbers of additional new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. We also modelled the effects of delaying reductions in general population testing services by 5-year increments. Additionally, we modelled the potential effects of reductions in general population testing services in combination with increases or decreases in ART interruption rates (ie, the annual rate at which people who are on ART discontinue ART) and condom usage in 2025-35.

FINDINGS

If general population HIV testing services and the HIV risk environment of 2022 were maintained, we projected that HIV incidence would steadily decline from 4·95 (95% CI 4·40-5·34) per 1000 population in 2025 to 0·14 (0·05-0·31) per 1000 in 2100, and that the so-called virtual elimination threshold of less than one new infection per 1000 population per year would be reached in 2055 (95% CI 2051-2060). Scaling back of general population HIV testing services by 25%, 50%, or 75% in 2025 delayed time to reaching the virtual elimination threshold by 5, 13, or 35 years, respectively, whereas complete cessation of general population testing would result in the threshold not being attained by 2100. Although the incidence of HIV continued to fall when general HIV testing services were reduced, our modelling suggested that, with reductions of between 25% and 100%, between 396 000 (95% CI 299 000-474 000) and 2·50 million (1·97 million-2·98 million) additional HIV infections and between 115 000 (94 000-135 000) and 795 000 (670 000-926 000) additional AIDS-related deaths would occur between 2025 and 2075, depending on the extent of reduction in testing. Delaying reductions in general population HIV testing services for 5-25 years mitigated some of these effects. HIV testing accounted for only 5% of total programmatic costs at baseline; reducing testing moderately reduced short-term total annual costs, but increased annual costs after 25 years. Increases in ART interruption and reductions in condom usage were projected to slow the decline in incidence and increase the coverage of general HIV testing services required to control transmission but did not cause rapid resurgence in HIV infections.

INTERPRETATION

Our modelling suggests that scaling back of general population HIV testing would not result in a resurgence of HIV infections, but would delay attainment of incidence-reduction targets and result in long-term increases in HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths, and costs (via increased need for ART provision). HIV programmes need to balance short-term potential resource savings with long-term epidemic control objectives.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise

Introduction

In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical models that assume certain demographic and behavioural characteristics like age and duration of sex work to remain constant over time. We reviewed this assumption for female sex workers in South Africa.

Methods

We reviewed studies that reported estimates on either the age or the duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to synthesize reported estimates and to study time trends. In a simulation exercise, we also investigated the potential impact of the "constant age and sex work duration"-assumption on estimates of HIV incidence.

Results

We included 24 different studies, conducted between 1996 and 2019, contributing 42 estimates on female sex worker age and 27 estimates on sex work duration. There was evidence suggesting an increase in both the duration of sex work and the age of female sex workers over time. According to the fitted models, over each decade the expected duration of sex work increased by 55.6% (95%-credible interval [CrI]: 23.5%-93.9%) and the expected age of female sex workers increased by 14.3% (95%-CrI: 9.1%-19.1%). Over the 23-year period, the predicted mean duration of sex work increased from 2.7 years in 1996 to 7.4 years in 2019, while the predicted mean age increased from 26.4 years to 32.3 years. Allowing for these time trends in the simulation exercise resulted in a notable decline in estimated HIV incidence rate among sex workers over time. This decline was significantly more pronounced than when assuming a constant age and duration of sex work.

Conclusions

In South Africa, age and duration of sex work in female sex workers increased over time. While this trend might be influenced by factors like expanding community mobilization and improved rights advocacy, the ongoing criminalisation, stigmatisation of sex work and lack of alternative employment opportunities could also be contributing. It is important to account for these changes when estimating HIV indicators in female sex workers.

A pathway to strengthening open science: comments on the draft South African Ethics in Health Research Guidelines

The recently released draft South African Ethics in Health Research Guidelines: Principles, Processes and Structures (Draft Guidelines) by the National Health Research Ethics Council recognize open data and provide guiding principles for this in the context of health research in South Africa. While its inclusion is a positive development, there is room for improvement. Although the Draft Guidelines leverage the Draft National Policy on Data and Cloud, it lacks incorporation of other relevant government policies, notably the Draft National Open Science Policy, and fails to sufficiently detail the principles of open science and open access. This limited scope and lack of comprehensive definition and detailed guidance present challenges for researchers in conducting ethical and responsible health research in South Africa. It constrains the Draft Guidelines from fully aligning with national imperatives and from fostering African-centric approaches. To address these issues, it is recommended that the Draft Guidelines integrate broader policies and principles, enhance clarity through comprehensive definitions, provide detailed guidance on open access, and promote African-centric approaches. Implementing these solutions will strengthen the Draft Guidelines, aligning them with national visions of open science, and thereby harnessing the full potential of South Africa's diverse scientific community in advancing health research.

Incidence and epidemiology of conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma in relation to the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a 25-year analysis of the National Cancer Registry (1994-2018)

AIMS

To describe the incidence and epidemiology of conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) in South Africa over a 25-year period (1994-2018), with particular reference to the HIV epidemic.

METHODS

Incident cases of histologically diagnosed CSCC were identified from the pathology-based South African National Cancer Registry. Crude and direct age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 persons (Segi World Standard Population) were calculated using national population statistics and compared by age, sex and ethnicity. Trends in the incidence and demographic features of CSCC were described and analysed. Incidence rates were compared with national HIV-related statistics for the same time period.

RESULTS

In total, there were 9016 reported CSCC cases (women: 56.6%, black: 86.8%, mean age: 41.5 years). The overall ASIR was 0.78 per 100 000. Two distinct epidemiological patterns were identified: (1) older white men, and (2) younger black women. There was a sixfold increase in CSCC incidence rates between 1994 and 2009 with a corresponding shift from the first to the second disease profile. Despite rising HIV seroprevalence, CSCC incidence rates have declined since 2009. A strong ecological correlation (r=0.96) between CSCC incidence and widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision was identified.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the evolving trends and disease burden of CSCC in South Africa. Widespread ART provision is ecologically correlated with declining CSCC rates over the last decade. These findings are in keeping with reported trends for other HIV-related cancers and have important implications for future incidence studies and public health policy.

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates.

METHODS

We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence. Dynamic HIV transmission model estimates of HIV incidence and percentage of new infections among key populations were extracted from 94 country applications of 9 mathematical models. We compared these with UNAIDS-reported distribution of new infections, implied key population HIV incidence and incidence-to-prevalence ratios.

RESULTS

Across SSA, empirical FSW HIV incidence was 8.6-fold (95% confidence interval: 5.7 to 12.9) higher than total population female 15-39 year incidence, and MSM HIV incidence was 41.8-fold (95% confidence interval: 21.9 to 79.6) male 15-29 year incidence. Combined with KPSE, these implied 12% of new HIV infections in 2021 were among FSW and MSM (5% and 7% respectively). In sensitivity analysis varying KPSE proportions within 95% uncertainty range, the proportion of new infections among FSW and MSM was between 9% and 19%. Insufficient data were available to estimate PWID incidence rate ratios. Across 94 models, median proportion of new infections among FSW, MSM, and PWID was 6.4% (interquartile range 3.2%-11.7%), both much lower than the 25% reported by UNAIDS.

CONCLUSION

Empirically derived and model-based estimates of HIV incidence confirm dramatically higher HIV risk among key populations in SSA. Estimated proportions of new infections among key populations in 2021 were sensitive to population size assumptions and were substantially lower than estimates reported by UNAIDS.

Experiences of transfer of care among postpartum women living with HIV attending primary healthcare services in South Africa

Transfers between health facilities for postpartum women living with HIV are associated with disengagement from care. In South Africa, women must transfer from integrated antenatal/HIV care to general HIV services post-delivery. Thereafter, women transfer frequently e.g. due to geographic mobility. To explore barriers to transfer, we conducted in-depth interviews >2 years post-delivery in 28 participants in a trial comparing postpartum HIV care at primary health care (PHC) antiretroviral therapy (ART) facilities versus a differentiated service delivery model, the adherence clubs, which are the predominant model implemented in South Africa. Data were thematically analysed using inductive and deductive approaches. Women lacked information including where they could transfer to and transfer processes. Continuity mechanisms were affected when women transferred silently i.e. without informing facilities or obtaining referral letters. Silent transfers often occurred due to poor relationships with healthcare workers and were managed inconsistently. Fear of disclosure to family and community stigma led to transfers from local PHC ART facilities to facilities further away affecting accessibility. Mobility and the postpartum period presented unique challenges requiring specific attention. Information regarding long-term care options and transfer processes, ongoing counselling regarding disclosure and social support, and increased health system flexibility are required.

Femicide, intimate partner femicide, and non-intimate partner femicide in South Africa: An analysis of 3 national surveys, 1999-2017

BACKGROUND

In most countries, reliable national statistics on femicide, intimate partner femicide (IPF), and non-intimate partner femicide (NIPF) are not available. Surveys are required to collect robust data on this most extreme consequence of intimate partner violence (IPV). We analysed 3 national surveys to compare femicide, IPF, and NIPF from 1999 to 2017 using age-standardised rates (ASRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted 3 national mortuary-based retrospective surveys using weighted cluster designs from proportionate random samples of medicolegal laboratories. We included females 14 years and older who were identified as having been murdered in South Africa in 1999 (n = 3,793), 2009 (n = 2,363), and 2017 (n = 2,407). Further information on the murdered cases were collected from crime dockets during interviews with police investigating officers. Our findings show that South Africa had an IPF rate of 4.9/100,000 female population in 2017. All forms of femicide among women 14 years and older declined from 1999 to 2017. For IPF, the ASR was 9.5/100,000 in 1999. Between 1999 and 2009, the decline for NIPF was greater than for IPF (IRR for NIPF 0.47 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.53) compared to IRR for IPF 0.69 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.77). Rates declined from 2009 to 2017 and did not differ by femicide type. The decline in IPF was initially larger for women aged 14 to 29, and after 2009, it was more pronounced for those aged 30 to 44 years. Study limitations include missing data from the police and having to use imputation to account for missing perpetrator data.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed a reduction in femicide overall and different patterns of change in IPF compared to NIPF. The explanation for the reductions may be due to social and policy interventions aimed at reducing IPV overall, coupled with increased social and economic stability. Our study shows that gender-based violence is preventable even in high-prevalence settings, and evidence-based prevention efforts must be intensified globally. We also show the value of dedicated surveys in the absence of functional information systems.

HIV Infection and 90-Day Stroke Outcomes in Uganda: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study

Background and Objectives

Little is known about the impact of HIV infection on the clinical presentation and outcomes after stroke in the modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. We aimed to compare stroke characteristics and outcomes between persons with HIV (PWH) and without HIV (PWOH) presenting with stroke in Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a matched cohort study at Mulago National Referral Hospital and Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital between January 2018 and November 2020. We enrolled consecutive PWH presenting with CT-confirmed acute or subacute stroke (symptom onset ≤14 days) and matched them by sex and stroke type to 2 consecutive available PWOH admitted to the same hospital. We obtained baseline clinical data and followed participants for 90 days from the day of clinical presentation. We compared stroke severity (defined by the NIH stroke scale [NIHSS]) and 90-day all-cause mortality and morbidity (using the modified Rankin Scale [mRS]) by HIV serostatus with and without adjustment for confounders.

Results

We enrolled 105 PWH and 157 PWOH with stroke. PWH were younger (mean [SD] age 49 [14] vs 59 [16] years, p < 0.001), and nearly 80% (82/105) were on ART for a median of 5 years and a median CD4 count of 214 cells/uL (interquartile range 140, 337). Compared with PWOH, PWH presented with a 3-point lower median NIHSS (16 vs 19, p = 0.011), a 20% lower proportion of all-cause mortality at 90 days (p = 0.001), and had less disability at 90 days (median mRS 4 vs 5, p = 0.004). Age and NIHSS-adjusted odds ratio of 90-day all-cause mortality in PWH compared with PWOH was 0.45 (95% CI 0.22-0.96, p = 0.037).

Discussion

In the modern ART era, PWH with acute stroke in Uganda present with modest stroke and are significantly less likely to die within 90 days than PWOH. This potentially reflects the protective effects of ART, enhanced health care access, and their younger age at stroke presentation.

South Africa's male homicide epidemic hiding in plain sight: Exploring sex differences and patterns in homicide risk in a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations

South Africa has an overall homicide rate six times the global average. Males are predominantly the victims and perpetrators, but little is known about the male victims. For the country's first ever study on male homicide we compared 2017 male and female victim profiles for selected covariates, against global average and previous estimates for 2009. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through postmortem investigations, calculating age-standardised mortality rates for manner of death by age, sex and province and male-to-female incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We then used generalised linear models and linear regression models to assess the association between sex and victim characteristics including age and mechanism of injury (guns, sharp and blunt force) within and between years. 87% of 19,477 homicides in 2017 were males, equating to seven male deaths for every female, with sharp force and firearm discharge being the most common cause of death. Rates were higher among males than females at all ages, and up to eight times higher for the age group 15-44 years. Provincial rates varied overall and by sex, with the highest comparative risk for men vs. women in the Western Cape Province (11.4 males for every 1 female). Male homicides peaked during December and were highest during weekends, underscoring the prominent role of alcohol as a risk factor. There is a massive, disproportionate and enduring homicide risk among South African men which highlights their relative neglect in the country's prevention and policy responses. Only through challenging the normative perception of male invulnerability do we begin to address the enormous burden of violence impacting men. There is an urgent need to address the insidious effect of such societal norms alongside implementing structural interventions to overcome the root causes of poverty, inequality and better control alcohol and firearms.

The cost of adding rapid screening for diabetes, hypertension, and COVID-19 to COVID-19 vaccination queues in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for 51% of total mortality in South Africa, with a rising burden of hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Incorporating NCD and COVID-19 screening into mass activities such as COVID-19 vaccination programs could offer significant long-term benefits for early detection interventions. However, there is limited knowledge of the associated costs and resources required. We evaluated the cost of integrating NCD screening and COVID-19 antigen rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT) into a COVID-19 vaccination program.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cost analysis at three public sector primary healthcare clinics and one academic hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa, conducting vaccinations. Participants were assessed for eligibility and recruited during May-Dec 2022. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using a bottom-up micro-costing approach and reported in 2022 USD.

Results

Of the 1,376 enrolled participants, 240 opted in to undergo a COVID-19 Ag-RDT, and none tested positive for COVID-19. 138 (10.1%) had elevated blood pressure, with 96 (70%) having no prior HTN diagnosis. 22 (1.6%) were screen-positive for DM, with 12 (55%) having no prior diagnosis. The mean and median costs per person screened for NCDs were $2.53 (SD: 3.62) and $1.70 (IQR: $1.38-$2.49), respectively. The average provider cost per person found to have elevated blood glucose levels and blood pressure was $157.99 and $25.19, respectively. Finding a new case of DM and HTN was $289.65 and $36.21, respectively. For DM and DM + HTN screen-positive participants, diagnostic tests were the main cost driver, while staff costs were the main cost driver for - and HTN screen-positive and screen-negative participants. The mean and median cost per Ag-RDT was $6.13 (SD: 0.87) and $5.95 (IQR: $5.55-$6.25), with costs driven mainly by test kit costs.

Conclusions

We show the cost of finding new cases of DM and HTN in a vaccine queue, which is an essential first step in understanding the feasibility and resource requirements for such initiatives. However, there is a need for comparative economic analyses that include linkage to care and retention data to fully understand this cost and determine whether opportunistic screening should be added to general mass health activities.

Antiretroviral stewardship in a tertiary academic hospital: The need for a clinical pharmacist

Background

South Africa has the highest prevalence of people living with HIV globally. Although antiretroviral therapy provides solutions, evidence of antiretroviral resistance emerged, requiring the application of antiretroviral-stewardship programmes to curb medication-related problems.

Aim

Identify and describe antiretroviral-stewardship pharmacist interventions in an active antiretroviral-stewardship programme.

Setting

HIV-positive adults admitted to medical wards at a tertiary academic hospital in South Africa.

Methods

A descriptive quantitative study was performed, utilising an antiretroviral-stewardship assessment tool to determine antiretroviral-related recommendations in the treatment of HIV-positive adults. The study employed purposive sampling. Treatment charts were evaluated to identify antiretroviral-stewardship recommendations. The number of recommendations highlighted the need for a clinical pharmacist in an active antiretroviral-stewardship programme. Descriptive data analysis with Pearson correlations was employed to display the data.

Results

Medication-related problems were identified in 100% of study patients (n = 41), with an average of 2.46 interventions per patient. One-hundred-and-one medication-related problems were identified by using the antiretroviral-stewardship assessment tool. The identified problems included a lack of viral load testing (41, 100%), lack of CD4 count monitoring (15; 36.6%) and lack of prophylactic treatment against opportunistic infections (10; 24.4%). Medication-related problems included the presence of clinically significant drug-drug interactions and serious side effects, CD4 count decline despite being on antiretroviral therapy, unnecessary treatment interruptions including risk for IRIS, inappropriate antiretroviral therapy regimen, non-adherence and absence of treating tuberculosis as co-morbidity.

Conclusion

Present study demonstrates the need of an active antiretroviral-stewardship programme's benefits. The possible role of the clinical pharmacist as active participant and leader in this programme is highlighted.

Contribution

Highlight the role of clinical pharmacists in antiretroviral stewardship.

Survival and predictors of mortality after completion of TB treatment among people living with HIV: a 5-year analytical cohort

BACKGROUND

After completion of TB treatment patients may remain at risk of co-morbidity and mortality. We determined the survival and predictors of all-cause mortality after completing TB treatment among ART-experienced patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort analysis of all ART experienced patients who completed TB treatment at a specialist HIV clinic in Uganda, between 2009 and 2014. The patients were followed for five years after TB treatment. We determined the cumulative probability of death, and predictors of mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively.

RESULTS

A total 1,287 patients completed TB treatment between 2009 and 2014, of which 1,111 were included in the analysis. At TB treatment completion, the median age was 36 years (IQR: 31-42), 563 (50.7%) were males, and median CD4 cell count was 235 cells/mL (IQR: 139-366). The person-time at risk was 4410.60 person-years. The all-cause mortality rate was 15.42 (95% CI: 12.14-19.59) per 1000 person-years. The probability of death at five years was 6.9% (95%CI: 5.5- 8.8). In the multivariable analysis, CD4 count < 200 cells/mL was a predictor of all-cause mortality (aHR = 1.81, 95%CI:1.06-3.11, p = 0.03) alongside history of retreatment (aHR = 2.12, 95%CI: 1.16-3.85, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Survival post TB treatment in ART experienced PLHIV is reasonably good. Most deaths occur within two years after TB treatment completion. Patients with a low CD4 count and those with a history of retreatment have an increased risk of mortality which underscores the need for TB prophylaxis, detailed assessment, and close monitoring after completion of TB treatment.

Advanced HIV disease and engagement in care among patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: results from a multi-state model

OBJECTIVE

Despite improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people with HIV (PWH), HIV continues to contribute considerably to morbidity and mortality. Increasingly, advanced HIV disease (AHD) is found among PWH who are ART-experienced.

DESIGN

Using a multi-state model we examined associations between engagement with care and AHD on ART in South Africa.

METHODS

Using data from IeDEA Southern Africa, we included PWH from South Africa, initiating ART from 2004 to 2017 aged more than 5 years with a CD4+ cell count at ART start and at least one subsequent measure. We defined a gap as no visit for at least 18 months. Five states were defined: 'AHD on ART' (CD4+ cell count <200 cells/μl), 'Clinically Stable on ART' (CD4+ cell count ≥200 or if no CD4+ cell count, viral load <1000 copies/ml), 'Early Gap' (commencing ≤18 months from ART start), 'Late Gap' (commencing >18 months from ART start) and 'Death'.

RESULTS

Among 32 452 PWH, men and those aged 15-25 years were more likely to progress to unfavourable states. Later years of ART start were associated with a lower probability of transitioning from AHD to clinically stable, increasing the risk of death following AHD. In stratified analyses, those starting ART with AHD in later years were more likely to re-engage in care with AHD following a gap and to die following AHD on ART.

CONCLUSION

In more recent years, those with AHD on ART were more likely to die, and AHD at re-engagement in care increased. To further reduce HIV-related mortality, efforts to address the challenges facing these more vulnerable patients are needed.

South Africa's male homicide epidemic hiding in plain sight: exploring sex differences and patterns in homicide risk in a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations

Background

South Africa has homicide rates six times the global average, predominantly among men, but little is known about male victims. As part of the country's first ever study of male homicide we compared 2017 male and female victim profiles for selected covariates, against global averages and previous estimates for 2009.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through postmortem investigations, calculating age-standardised mortality rates for manner of death by age, sex and province and male-to-female incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We then used generalised linear models and linear regression models to assess the association between sex and victim characteristics including age and mechanism of injury (guns, stabs and blunt force) within and between years.

Findings

87% of 19,477 homicides in 2017 were males, equating to seven male deaths for every female, with sharp force and firearm discharge the most common external causes. Rates were higher among males than females at all ages, and up to eight times higher among males aged 15-44 years. Provincial rates varied overall and by sex, with the highest comparative risk for men vs. women in the Western Cape Province (11.4 males for every 1 female). Male homicides peaked during December and were highest on weekends, underscoring the prominent role of alcohol as a risk factor. Significantly more males tested positive for alcohol than females.

Interpretation

The massive, disproportionate and enduring homicide risk borne by adult South African men highlights the negligible prevention response. Only through challenging the normative perception of male invulnerability can we begin to address the enormous burden of violence impacting men. There is an urgent need to address the insidious effect of such societal norms alongside implementing structural interventions to overcome the root causes of poverty and inequality and better control alcohol and firearms.

Funding

South African Medical Research Council and Ford Foundation.

Attrition from Care Among Men Initiating ART in Male-Only Clinics Compared with Men in General Primary Healthcare Clinics in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Matched Propensity Score Analysis

Men have higher rates of attrition from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs than women. In Khayelitsha, a high HIV prevalence area in South Africa, two public sector primary healthcare clinics offer services, including HIV testing and treatment, exclusively to men. We compared attrition from ART care among men initiating ART at these clinics with male attrition in six general primary healthcare clinics in Khayelitsha. We described baseline characteristics of patients initiating ART at the male and general clinics from 1 January 2014 to 31 March 2018. We used exposure propensity scores (generated based on baseline health and age) to match male clinic patients 1:1 to males at other clinics. The association between attrition (death or loss to follow-up, defined as no visits for nine months) and clinic type was estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Follow-up time began at ART initiation and ended at attrition, clinic transfer, or dataset closure. Before matching, patients from male clinics (n = 784) were younger than males from general clinics (n = 2726), median age: 31.2 vs 35.5 years. Those initiating at male clinics had higher median CD4 counts at ART initiation [Male Clinic 1: 329 (IQR 210-431), Male Clinic 2: 364 (IQR 260-536), general clinics 258 (IQR 145-398), cells/mm³]. In the matched analysis (1451 person-years, 1568 patients) patients initiating ART at male clinics had lower attrition (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85). In separate analyses for each of the two male clinics, only the more established male clinic showed a protective effect. Male-only clinics reached younger, healthier men, and had lower ART attrition than general services. These findings support clinic-specific adaptations to create more male-friendly environments.

The costs of interventions for type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease in South Africa - a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

In the context of a move to universal health coverage, three separate systematic reviews were conducted to summarise available evidence on the direct costs of interventions for type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease in South Africa.

METHODS

PubMed® and Web of Science was searched for literature published between 01 and 1995 and 27 October 2022. Additionally, reference and citations lists of retrieved articles and experts were consulted. We also tracked reference lists of previous, related systematic reviews. Eligible publications were cost analyses of clinical interventions targeted at adults age 15 + reporting primary estimates of in- and out-of-hospital costs from a provider perspective. Costs were extracted and converted to 2021 US dollars, and article methodological and reporting quality was appraised using the 2013 CHEERS checklist.

RESULTS

Of the 600, 1,172 and 1,466 identified publications for type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease, respectively, 10, 12, and 17 met full inclusion criteria. 60% of articles reported cardiovascular disease costs, 52% were of good reporting quality, and 10%, 50%, and 39% of type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease papers reported private-sector costs only. Hypertension drug costs ranged from $2 to $85 per person-month, while type 2 diabetes mellitus drug costs ranged between $57 and $630 per person-year (ppy). Diabetes-related complication treatment costs ranged from $55 for retinopathy treatment to $25,193 ppy for haemodialysis, while cardiovascular disease treatment costs were between $160 and $37,491 ppy. Drugs and treatment of complications were major cost drivers for hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus, while hospitalisation drove cardiovascular disease costs.

CONCLUSION

The intervention costs of type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease care have received more attention recently, particularly diabetes-related complications and cardiovascular disease. However, 39% of identified cardiovascular disease treatment costs used a private sector perspective, leaving significant research gaps in the public sector and the cheaper to treat hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus. This review fills an information gap regarding the intervention costs of these diseases in South Africa.

Antiretroviral therapy and aging as resources for managing and resisting HIV-related stigma in rural South Africa

The widespread roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa has contributed to a large population of adults aging with HIV. However, little is known about how HIV-related stigma interacts with aging in the ART era. This study uses in-depth interviews with middle-aged and older South Africans living with HIV to explore stigma-related experiences and response strategies. Participants describe a persistence of stigma which requires the deployment of a range of common and age-based stigma management and resistance strategies. We find that participants minimize their exposure to stigma through selective disclosure of their HIV status; neutralize HIV-related stigma through comparisons to chronic illnesses common among older adults, and deflect stigma through asserting an ART-adherent identity and othering younger non-adherent adults. Overall, our study highlights the roles of ART and aging as resources for managing and resisting HIV-related stigma.

Hepatitis A virus seroprevalence among children and adolescents in a high-burden HIV setting in urban South Africa

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is one of the most important global causes of viral hepatitis. Recent reviews suggested that HAV endemicity in South Africa could shift from high to intermediate. A hospital-based HAV seroprevalence study was conducted between February 2018 and December 2019 in Pretoria, South Africa. Systematic sampling was performed on children and adolescents (1-15 years) who attended outpatient services. Participants with a known HIV status and valid HAV serology results were included. Of the 1220 participants, the median age was 7 years (IQR: 4-11), with 648 (53.11%) males and 572 (46.89%) females. Of 628 (51.48%) HIV-infected participants, most (329, 71.83%) were both immunologically and virologically controlled or had low-level viremia (74, 16.16%). Almost three-quarters (894, 73.28%) were living in formal dwellings, and just over half (688, 56.39%) had access to clean water sources inside the house. Increasing age was associated with testing HAV IgG-positive (OR 1.25; 95% CI 1.20-1.30, p < 0.001), with 19.8% of participants one year of age compared with 86.7% of participants 15 years of age. This study suggests that South Africa has an intermediate HAV seroprevalence, with rates < 90% by 10 years of age (68.6%). Increased age and informal dwellings are statistically associated with HAV seropositivity, while HIV status does not significantly influence HAV seropositivity.

A randomized study of intensified antiretroviral treatment monitoring versus standard-of-care for prevention of drug resistance and antiretroviral treatment switch

INTRODUCTION

Standard-of-care antiretroviral treatment (ART) monitoring in low and middle-income countries consists of annual determination of HIV-RNA viral load with confirmatory viral load testing in case of viral rebound. We evaluated an intensified monitoring strategy of three-monthly viral load testing with additional drug exposure and drug resistance testing in case of viral rebound.

METHODS

We performed an open-label randomized controlled trial (RCT) at a rural South African healthcare clinic, enrolling adults already receiving or newly initiating first-line ART. During 96 weeks follow-up, intervention participants received three-monthly viral load testing and sequential point-of-care drug exposure testing and DBS-based drug resistance testing in case of rebound above 1000 copies/ml. Control participants received standard-of-care monitoring according to the WHO guidelines.

RESULTS

Five hundred one participants were included, of whom 416 (83.0%) were randomized at 24 weeks. Four hundred one participants were available for intention-to-treat analysis. Viral rebound occurred in 9.0% (18/199) of intervention participants and in 11.9% (24/202) of controls ( P  = 0.445). Time to detection of rebound was 375 days [interquartile range (IQR): 348-515] in intervention participants and 360 days [IQR: 338-464] in controls [hazard ratio: 0.88 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.46-1.66]; P  = 0.683]. Duration of viral rebound was 87 days [IQR: 70-110] in intervention participants and 101 days [IQR: 78-213] in controls ( P  = 0.423). In the control arm, three patients with confirmed failure were switched to second-line ART. In the intervention arm, of three patients with confirmed failure, switch could initially be avoided in two cases.

CONCLUSION

Three-monthly viral load testing did not significantly reduce the duration of viraemia when compared with standard-of-care annual viral load testing, providing randomized trial evidence in support of annual viral load monitoring.

Analysis of trend in mortality due to HIV/AIDS-defining and non-HIV/AIDS defining illnesses according to sociodemographic characteristics, by Federative Unit and Brazil, 2000-2018

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend of mortality rate due to HIV/AIDS defining and non-HIV/AIDS defining illnesses in Brazil between 2000 and 2018.

METHODS

This was an ecological time series study, using data from the Mortality Information System, in Brazil and the Federative Units. Trend analysis was performed by means of Prais-Winsten regression model, according to overall mortality rate, sex, age group, marital status and race/skin color.

RESULTS

A total of 237,435 deaths were recorded in the period. In the country, defining illnesses showed higher rates (7.4 to 4.4 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in the period) than those observed among non-defining diseases (0.4 to 0.8 death/100,000 inhabitants in the period). It could be seen a decrease in overall mortality due to defining diseases (-6.3%; 95%CI -8.8;-3.8); while it increased due to non-defining diseases (11.0%; 95%CI 6.5;15.7).

CONCLUSION

There was a change in HIV/AIDS mortality profile over the years, with a decrease in deaths due to HIV/AIDS-defining diseases.

Opportunities and considerations for the design of decentralized delivery of antiretroviral therapy for female sex workers living with HIV in South Africa

Background

In South Africa, 60% of female sex workers (FSW) are living with HIV, many of whom experience structural and individual barriers to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and adherence. Community-based decentralized treatment provision (DTP) may mitigate these barriers. To characterize optimal implementation strategies, we explored preferences for DTP among FSW living with HIV in Durban, South Africa.

Methods

Thirty-nine semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with FSW living with HIV (n = 24), and key informants (n = 15) including HIV program implementers, security personnel, and brothel managers. Participants were recruited using maximum variation and snowball sampling. Interviews were conducted in English or isiZulu between September–November 2017 and analyzed using grounded theory in Atlas.ti 8.

Results

DTP was described as an intervention that could address barriers to ART adherence and retention, minimizing transport costs, time and wage loss from clinic visits, and act as a safety net to address FSW mobility and clinic access challenges. Respondents highlighted contextual considerations for DTP and suggested that DTP should be venue-based, scheduled during less busy times and days, and integrate comprehensive health services including psychological, reproductive, and non-communicable disease services. ART packaging and storage were important for community-based delivery, and participants suggested DTP should be implemented by sex work sensitized staff with discrete uniform and vehicle branding.

Conclusions

Incorporating FSW preferences may support implementation optimization and requires balancing of tensions between preferences and feasibility. These data suggest the potential utility of DTP for FSW as a strategy to address those most marginalized from current ART programs in South Africa.

A community mobilisation intervention to improve engagement in HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care in South Africa: a cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Community mobilisation, engaging communities in a process to collectively enact change, could improve HIV testing and care engagement. In South Africa, current rates fall below those needed for epidemic control. We assessed whether community mobilisation increased HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care over time in intervention relative to control communities.

METHODS

We conducted a cluster-randomised controlled trial in villages in the Agincourt sub-district of the rural Mpumalanga Province in South Africa. 15 villages were randomly assigned to either a community mobilisation intervention engaging residents to address social barriers to HIV testing and treatment (intervention arm) or to a control arm using balanced randomisation. Villages were eligible if they had been fully enumerated in 2014, had not been included in previous mobilisation activities, and included over 500 permanent adult residents aged 18-49 years. Primary outcomes included quarterly rates of HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care documented from health facility records among residents of the intervention and control communities over the 3-year study period. Intention-to-treat analyses employed generalised estimating equations stratified by sex. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02197793.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 1, 2015, and July 31, 2018, residents in eight intervention communities (n=20 544 residents) and seven control communities (n=17 848) contributed data; 92 residents contributed to both arms. Among men, HIV testing increased quarterly by 12·1% (relative change [RC] 1·121, 95% CI 1·099 to 1·143, p<0·0001) in the intervention communities and 9·5% (1·095, 1·075 to 1·114, p=0·011) in the control communities; although increases in testing were greater in the intervention villages, differences did not reach significance (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·024, 95% CI 0·997 to 1·052, p=0·078). Among women, HIV testing increased quarterly by 10·6% (RC 1·106, 95% CI 1·097 to 1·114, p<0·0001) in the intervention communities and 9·3% (1·093, 1·084 to 1·102, p=0·053) in the control communities; increases were greater in intervention communities (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·012, 95% CI 1·001 to 1·023, p=0·043). Quarterly linkage increased significantly among women in the intervention communities (RC 1·013, 95% CI 1·002 to 1·023, p=0·018) only. Quarterly linkage fell among men in both arms, but decreased significantly among men in the control communities (0·977, 0·954 to 1·002, p=0·043). Quarterly retention fell among women in both arms; however, reductions were tempered among women in the intervention communities (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·003, 95% CI <1·000 to 1·006, p=0·062). Retention fell significantly among men in both arms with difference in rates of decline.

INTERPRETATION

Community mobilisation was associated with modest improvements in select trial outcomes. The sum of these incremental, quarterly improvements achieved by addressing social barriers to HIV care engagement can impact epidemic control. However, achieving optimal impacts will probably require integrated efforts addressing both social barriers through community mobilisation and provision of improved service delivery.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Mental Health, and United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through Right to Care and Project SOAR.

Factors associated with bone marrow involvement in lymphoma staging bone marrow examination: A South African single-centre retrospective study

Background: Accurate detection of bone marrow involvement (BMI) in lymphoma is important as it signifies stage 4 disease. Staging bone marrow examination (BME), therefore, influences treatment decisions and prognostication. The prevalence of BMI depends on multiple factors at presentation including lymphoma subtype, age, sex, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status and haematological parameters.Aim: To determine risk factors for BMI in lymphoma staging.Setting: The study was conducted in the department of haematological pathology, Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa.Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional descriptive study in adult patients, reviewing BMI and associated parameters, during their initial lymphoma staging procedure between 2016 and 2019.Results: Of a total of 387 lymphoma staging cases that were evaluated, 30.0% of them showed BMI. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma and high-grade B-cell lymphoma were the most frequent subtypes diagnosed. The highest prevalence of BMI was in low-grade lymphomas. There was a statistically significant association between BMI and advanced age, pancytopenia and bicytopenia (anaemia with leucopenia, anaemia with thrombocytopenia or leucopenia with thrombocytopenia). Bicytopenia and pancytopenia showed high positive predictive values of BMI, respectively, 61.0% and 69.0%. Human immunodeficiency virus positivity (34.6%) was not predictive of BMI across all lymphoma subtypes. Normal blood counts had a high negative predictive value for BMI.Conclusion: BME remains an important part of lymphoma staging with 30.0% of all lymphomas showing BMI.

Estimating the burden of cancer in South Africa

Background: The incidence of cancer is on the rise in South Africa and globally. However, literature on the current and expected future burden of cancer in the country is lacking.Aim: To develop a model that forecasts the incidence of five of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in South Africa. The model aims to estimate the true underlying burden of cancer, as opposed to diagnosed cases only.Setting: South Africa.Methods: Age-specific incidence rates for each cancer are forecasted for the period 2019–2030, based on a combination of public and private sector cohort data. It is assumed that historical trends in changes in the incidence rate of cancer will continue over the forecasting period. Forecasted incidence rates are applied to population forecasts to find the total number of incident cancer cases for the relevant year.Results: The incidence of all cancers included in this research is increasing over time, with the total number of cases just less than doubling between 2019 and 2030 (from approximately 62 000 to 121 000 incident cases). This is a result of increases in the age-specific incidence rate of cancer, as well as the growth and ageing of the South African population.Conclusion: Results confirm that cancer is a major and growing public health problem in South Africa. This highlights the need for increases in resources available for cancer services, as well as rapid implementation of cancer prevention strategies, to reduce the number of future cancer cases, and thereby reduce the burden on the health system.

Recent Progress in the Discovery and Development of Monoclonal Antibodies against Viral Infections

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), the new revolutionary class of medications, are fast becoming tools against various diseases thanks to a unique structure and function that allow them to bind highly specific targets or receptors. These specialized proteins can be produced in large quantities via the hybridoma technique introduced in 1975 or by means of modern technologies. Additional methods have been developed to generate mAbs with new biological properties such as humanized, chimeric, or murine. The inclusion of mAbs in therapeutic regimens is a major medical advance and will hopefully lead to significant improvements in infectious disease management. Since the first therapeutic mAb, muromonab-CD3, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1986, the list of approved mAbs and their clinical indications and applications have been proliferating. New technologies have been developed to modify the structure of mAbs, thereby increasing efficacy and improving delivery routes. Gene delivery technologies, such as non-viral synthetic plasmid DNA and messenger RNA vectors (DMabs or mRNA-encoded mAbs), built to express tailored mAb genes, might help overcome some of the challenges of mAb therapy, including production restrictions, cold-chain storage, transportation requirements, and expensive manufacturing and distribution processes. This paper reviews some of the recent developments in mAb discovery against viral infections and illustrates how mAbs can help to combat viral diseases and outbreaks.

The sexual and reproductive health needs of young people living with HIV in Gauteng, South Africa

Background

HIV has been the focus of health systems strengthening in South Africa for the past two decades. Despite progress, sexual and reproductive health (SRH) challenges such as contraception, condom usage and HIV disclosure of young people living with HIV (YPLHIV) remain inadequately addressed. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to describe the SRH needs of YPLHIV and make recommendations to address identified gaps.

Objectives

To explore and describe the SRH needs and potential systemic gaps of YPLHIV with an aim to make recommendations for improvement and contribute to the development of an integrated approach to SRH care in HIV programming.

Method

A quantitative cross-sectional research design with purposive sampling was utilised. YPLHIV were recruited from five healthcare facilities in Gauteng, South Africa, for face-to-face interviews.

Results

One hundred and six YPLHIV with a median age of 18 years were enrolled. A large proportion (57/106; 53.8%) of respondents reported being either single or double orphaned. Sex-related discussions with parents were reported by only 36/106 (34.0%). History of teenage pregnancy was reported in 39/70 (56.0%) of female respondents. A high prevalence of multiple sexual partnerships 41/97 (42.2%) was noted. Consensual partner HIV disclosure was low at 47/97 (48.4%) and the male gender was associated with low 10/35 (28.6%) disclosure of serostatus to sexual partners.

Conclusion

Multiple SRH needs were identified. Interventions are needed to improve parental guidance on SRH issues, increase contraception knowledge and access, and provide better male-centred care.

Why Men Rape: Perspectives From Incarcerated Rapists in a KwaZulu-Natal Prison, South Africa

Sexual offending is a global problem but is particularly prevalent on the African continent and in South Africa. Childhood experiences related to abuse, alcohol use, and criminal activities in the household and community has been associated with an increased risk for violence perpetration in adulthood. Less is known about sexual violence perpetration, especially in the South African context. In this study, the experiences of incarcerated male perpetrators of rape in South Africa are investigated along with the collective social context and individual childhood experiences that potentially contribute to rape perpetration. Eighteen male perpetrators of rape who were inmates at Westville Correctional Services in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, were interviewed. The semi-structured in-depth qualitative interviews were transcribed, coded and annotated using an interpretive paradigm and thematic analysis approach. Five main themes emerged from the research and included (1) childhood trauma and adverse events, e.g., an absent father, being raised without parents, exposure to criminal or violent behavior, physical abuse, sexual abuse and poverty, (2) understanding rape, e.g., rape as sex by force and without consent, rape as a violent act, rape as sex with a minor, myths about rape (3) substance abuse, e.g., history of alcohol and drug use, and intoxication during rape perpetration, (4) gender roles and avoiding responsibility, e.g., victim blaming, rape as male prerogative, transactional sex, being framed or set-up, ignoring an ancestral call and (5) recidivism. The findings revealed that all rape perpetrators were exposed to at least one childhood trauma type. Family and community violence and criminality was common. Most participants avoided taking responsibility for their actions and blamed the victim and recidivism/prior convictions were often reported. The findings demonstrate the complex personality dynamic involved in the cycle of abuse and the evolution of criminal behavior, starting as a victim and ending as a perpetrator. The findings also highlight the need for interventions aimed at reducing childhood trauma exposure and improving the social and relational context of those at risk for childhood neglect and abuse.

Magnitude and predictors of HIV-Drug resistance in Africa: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is continued to be a major public health problem in low-income countries and more importantly in Africa. For the last decade, access to Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) and its impact in improving quality of life and reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality has significantly been improved in Africa. Nevertheless, the emergency of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) has posed challenges in achieving optimal ART treatment outcomes and is alarmingly increasing globally in general and in Africa in particular. Comprehensive epidemiological data on the magnitude of HIVDR and HIVDR mutations, and predictors of HIVDR are, however, limited in Africa.

Objective

The main objective of this systematic review will be to estimate the pooled proportion of HIVDR and HIVDR mutations, and identify factors associated with HIVDR among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH) in Africa.

Method

Published Literature from 2000 until 30 October 2021 will be searched in PubMed/Medline Ovid, HINARI, SCOPUS, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Sciences, and Cochrane electronic databases. Initially, the literature will be screened based on title/abstract and followed by full-text appraisal for methodological quality using JBI critical appraisal tools. Data will be extracted from eligible articles after the full-text appraisal. Heterogeneity will be qualitatively assessed by a visual Funnel plot and quantitatively measured by an index of heterogeneity (I² statistics). Random-effects model will be fitted to estimate the proportion of HIVDR and each HIVDR mutations. Sub-group and sensitivity analyses will be conducted to reduce heterogeneity. Meta-regression will be done by median year of sampling per study to observe the pattern of changes over time. Publication bias will be assessed by egger’s statistics. In case of publication bias, Trim and Fill analysis will be conducted to overcome small-study effect. Data analysis will be performed using Stata version 14.

Ethics and dissemination

As the data sources are published papers, the protocol will not require an ethical approval letter. The final report of the review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

The health impact of free access to antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

Since 2004 the South African government has rolled out free antiretroviral therapy (ART) at public health care facilities nationwide. No prior studies have estimated the impact of the ART rollout on health and survival using a longitudinal household survey with national coverage. We match household member deaths and self-assessed health from a large national longitudinal survey to community-level ART availability in clinics to estimate the reduction in mortality and morbidity attributable to ART availability between 2006 and 2016, using a difference-in-difference model. Our analysis focuses on black Africans aged 25-49 because this demographic group represents more than two-thirds of all South African HIV cases. We find that the rollout of free ART has reduced annual mortality by 27% and decreased the likelihood of reporting poor health by 36% for black Africans aged 25-49. These estimates amount to annual reductions in this demographic category of 31% in annual mortality and 47% in individuals reporting poor health. Our findings confirm that making ART treatment freely available nationwide has had a dramatic impact in terms of both prolonged survival and improved health, with most of these gains concentrated in the high HIV prevalence group of black Africans aged 25-49.

Costs of seasonal influenza vaccination in South Africa

Background

Influenza accounts for a substantial number of deaths and hospitalisations annually in South Africa. To address this disease burden, the South African National Department of Health introduced a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination programme in 2010.

Methods

We adapted and populated the WHO Seasonal Influenza Immunization Costing Tool (WHO SIICT) with country‐specific data to estimate the cost of the influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. Data were obtained through key‐informant interviews at different levels of the health system and through a review of existing secondary data sources. Costs were estimated from a public provider perspective and expressed in 2018 prices. We conducted scenario analyses to assess the impact of different levels of programme expansion and the use of quadrivalent vaccines on total programme costs.

Results

Total financial and economic costs were estimated at approximately USD 2.93 million and USD 7.91 million, respectively, while financial and economic cost per person immunised was estimated at USD 3.29 and USD 8.88, respectively. Expanding the programme by 5% and 10% increased economic cost per person immunised to USD 9.36 and USD 9.52 in the two scenarios, respectively. Finally, replacing trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) with quadrivalent vaccine increased financial and economic costs to USD 4.89 and USD 10.48 per person immunised, respectively.

Conclusion

We adapted the WHO SIICT and provide estimates of the total costs of the seasonal influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. These estimates provide a basis for planning future programme expansion and may serve as inputs for cost‐effectiveness analyses of seasonal influenza vaccination programmes.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance.

RESULTS

Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Delivering PrEP to Young Women in a Low-Income Setting in South Africa: Lessons for Providing Both Convenience and Support

Daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a key tool in addressing high HIV incidence among young women, and breaking the cycle of transmission. From 2017 to 2020, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) offered PrEP, in conjunction with contraception and risk-reduction counselling, to women aged 18–25, in a government-run clinic in Khayelitsha, a low income high HIV prevalence area in South Africa. Drawing on clinical, quantitative, and qualitative interview data, we describe participants’ experiences and engagement with the PrEP program, participant adherence (measured by TFV-DP levels in dried blood spots) over time, and the indirect benefits of the PrEP program. Of 224 screened and eligible participants, 164 (73.2%) initiated PrEP, with no large differences between those who initiated and those who did not. Overall, 47 (29%) completed 18 months follow-up, with 15 (9.1%) attending all visits. 76 (46.9%) participants were lost to follow-up, 15 (9.1%) exited when leaving the area, and 28.7% of exits happened in the first month of the study. We identified two different trajectories of PrEP adherence: 67% of participants had, on average, consistently low TFV-DP levels, with the remaining 33% having sustained high adherence. Few baseline characteristics predicted good adherence. The main reported barrier to taking PrEP was forgetting to take or travel with the pills. Encouragement from others declined as a reported facilitator from month 6 to 18 (family: 93.1% vs 77.6%, p = 0.016, friends: 77.6% vs 41.4%, p ≤ 0.001, partners: 62.1% vs 46.6%, p = 0.096, other PrEP users: 89.7% vs 74.1%, p = 0.020). Disclosure to friends and family in some cases opened dialogue around sex, and helped to educate others about PrEP. Self-reported sex with more than one partner, and sex without a condom, decreased significantly after enrolment (p < 0.001, p = 0.063). In the individual interviews, participants credited their PrEP experience with changing their behaviour. Recognising the challenges with, but overall benefits from a package of care that includes the option of PrEP, lessons drawn from this study can help maximise persistence on PrEP within resource constraints. PrEP providers need to address participants’ need for both convenience and social support.

Attrition from HIV care among youth initiating ART in youth-only clinics compared with general primary healthcare clinics in Khayelitsha, South Africa: a matched propensity score analysis

INTRODUCTION

Youth living with HIV (YLWH) are less likely to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) and remain in care than older adults. It is important to identify effective strategies to address the needs of this growing population and prevent attrition from HIV care. Since 2008, two clinics have offered youth-targeted services exclusively to youth aged 12-25 in Khayelitsha, a high HIV-prevalence, low-income area in South Africa. We compared ART attrition among youth in these two clinics to youth in regular clinics in the same area.

METHODS

We conducted a propensity score matched cohort study of individuals aged 12-25 years initiating ART at eight primary care clinics in Khayelitsha between 1 January 2008 and 1 April 2018. We compared attrition, defined as death or loss to follow-up, between those attending two youth clinics and those attending general primary healthcare clinics, using Cox proportional hazards regression. Follow-up time began at ART initiation and ended at attrition, clinic transfer or dataset closure. We conducted sub-analyses of patients attending adherence clubs.

RESULTS

The distribution of age, sex and CD4 count at ART initiation was similar across Youth Clinic A (N = 1383), Youth Clinic B (N = 1299) and general clinics (N = 3056). Youth at youth clinics were more likely than those at general clinics to have initiated ART before August 2011 (Youth Clinic A: 16%, Youth Clinic B: 23% and general clinics: 11%). Youth clinics were protective against attrition: HR 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71-0.92) for Youth Clinic A and 0.85 (0.74-0.98) for Youth Clinic B, compared to general clinics. Youth Clinic A club patients had lower attrition after joining an adherence club than general clinic patients in adherence clubs (crude HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.96; adjusted HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.28-0.85), while Youth Clinic B showed no effect (crude HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.48-1.45; adjusted HR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.60-1.90).

CONCLUSIONS

YLWH were more likely to be retained in ART care in two different youth-targeted clinics compared to general clinics in the same area. Our findings suggest that multiple approaches to making clinics more youth-friendly can contribute to improving retention in this important group.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral regimens: an economic evaluation of a clinical trial

BACKGROUND

HIV programmes world-wide currently make decisions regarding new antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens with less side-effects and higher resistance barriers, which may improve adherence and viral suppression. Economic evaluation helps inform these decisions.

METHODS

We conducted an economic evaluation of three ART regimens included in the ADVANCE trial from the provider's perspective: tenofovir alafenamide (TAF)/emtricitabine (FTC)+dolutegravir (DTG) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)/FTC+DTG, compared with TDF/FTC/efavirenz (EFV). We used top-down and bottom-up cost analysis with resource utilization based on trial data and adjusted to emulate routine care. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of each regimen as cost per person virally suppressed or retained and per life-year saved, at 48 and 96 weeks.

RESULTS

Though the DTG-based trial arms were 2% more costly than TDF/FTC/EFV, both had slightly lower cost-per-outcome ($9783 and $9929/patient virally suppressed for TDF/FTC+DTG and TAF/FTC+DTG, respectively) than TDF/FTC/EFV ($10 365). The trial cost per additional virally suppressed patient, compared with TDF/FTC/EFV, was lower in the TDF/FTC+DTG arm ($2967) compared with TAF/FTC+DTG ($3430). In routine care, cost per virally suppressed patient was estimated as similar between TDF/FTC+DTG ($426) and TDF/FTC/EFV ($424) but more costly under TAF/FTC+DTG. Similar results were seen in the cost per additional person retained across scenarios. When modelled over 20 years, TDF/FTC+DTG was more cost-effective than TAF/FTC+DTG ($10 341 vs $41 958/life-year saved).

CONCLUSION

TDF/FTC+DTG had similar costs per outcome as TDF/FTC/EFV in the routine care scenario but TDF/FTC+DTG was more cost-effective when modelled over 20 years.

Longitudinal analysis of sociodemographic, clinical and therapeutic factors of HIV-infected individuals in Kinshasa at antiretroviral therapy initiation during 2006-2017

Background

The benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) underpin the recommendations for the early detection of HIV infection and ART initiation. Late initiation (LI) of antiretroviral therapy compromises the benefits of ART both individually and in the community. Indeed, it promotes the transmission of infection and higher HIV-related morbidity and mortality with complicated and costly clinical management.

This study aims to analyze the evolutionary trends in the median CD4 count, the median time to initiation of ART, the proportion of patients with advanced HIV disease at the initiation of ART between 2006 and 2017 and their factors.

Methods and findings

HIV-positive adults (≥ 16 years old) who initiated ART between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2017 in 25 HIV care facilities in Kinshasa, the capital of DRC, were eligible. The data were processed anonymously. LI is defined as CD4≤350 cells/μl and/or WHO clinical stage III or IV and advanced HIV disease (AHD), as CD4≤200 cells/μl and/or stage WHO clinic IV. Factors associated with advanced HIV disease at ART initiation were analyzed, irrespective of year of enrollment in HIV care, using logistic regression models.

A total of 7278 patients (55% admitted after 2013) with an average age of 40.9 years were included. The majority were composed of women (71%), highly educated women (68%) and married or widowed women (61%). The median CD4 was 213 cells/μl, 76.7% of patients had CD4≤350 cells/μl, 46.1% had CD4≤200 cells/μl, and 59% of patients were at WHO clinical stages 3 or 4. Men had a more advanced clinical stage (p <0.046) and immunosuppression (p<0.0007) than women.

Overall, 70% of patients started ART late, and 25% had AHD. Between 2006 and 2017, the median CD4 count increased from 190 cells/μl to 331 cells/μl (p<0.0001), and the proportions of patients with LI and AHD decreased from 76% to 47% (p< 0.0001) and from 18.7% to 8.9% (p<0.0001), respectively.

The median time to initiation of ART after screening for HIV infection decreased from 40 to zero months (p<0.0001), and the proportion of time to initiation of ART in the month increased from 39 to 93.3% (p<0.0001) in the same period.

The probability of LI of ART was higher in married couples (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.3–2.3) (p<0.0007) and lower in patients with higher education (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64–0.86) (p<0.0001).

Conclusion

Despite increasingly rapid treatment, the proportions of LI and AHD remain high. New approaches to early detection, the first condition for early ART and a key to ending the HIV epidemic, such as home and work HIV testing, HIV self-testing and screening at the point of service, must be implemented.

Associations Between Patterns of Alcohol Use and Viral Load Suppression Amongst Women Living with HIV in South Africa

This study aimed to identify alcohol use patterns associated with viral non-suppression among women living with HIV (WLWH) and the extent to which adherence mediated these relationships. Baseline data on covariates, alcohol consumption, ART adherence, and viral load were collected from 608 WLWH on ART living in the Western Cape, South Africa. We defined three consumption patterns: no/light drinking (drinking ≤ 1/week and ≤ 4 drinks/occasion), occasional heavy episodic drinking (HED) (drinking > 1 and ≤ 2/week and ≥ 5 drinks/occasion) and frequent HED (drinking ≥ 3 times/week and ≥ 5 drinks/occasion). In multivariable analyses, occasional HED (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.78–5.30) and frequent HED (OR 7.11, 95% CI 4.24–11.92) were associated with suboptimal adherence. Frequent HED was associated with viral non-suppression (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.30–3.28). Suboptimal adherence partially mediated the relationship between frequent HED and viral non-suppression. Findings suggest a direct relationship between frequency of HED and viral suppression. Given the mediating effects of adherence on this relationship, alcohol interventions should be tailored to frequency of HED while also addressing adherence.

The Effect of Rosuvastatin on Plasma/Serum Levels of High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6, and D-Dimer in People Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Rosuvastatin therapy might have an effect on the inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers. However, the evidence about the effect of rosuvastatin therapy on the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and D-dimer levels among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) is still unclear. Therefore, this study investigated the relational effect of rosuvastatin therapy on serum/plasma hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer levels in PLHIV. The literature search was done from Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science databases. The review and meta-analysis included studies written in English language up to January 4, 2020. Random effects model was used to evaluate the pooled standard mean difference with 95% confidence interval. A meta-analysis was performed using nine articles with 392 PLHIV. The result revealed that the plasma/serum levels of IL-6 were significantly reduced after the intervention. However, hsCRP and D-dimer levels showed no significant difference (p > .05) between before and after the intervention. The subgroup analysis showed that there was significant association between PLHIV ages <45 years and cohort studies with IL-6 levels. The current CD4⁺ counts ≥350 cells/mm³ correlated with hsCRP as well as IL-6. Similarly, nadir CD4⁺ counts ≥200 cells/mm³ and duration of HIV diagnosis <10 years also showed significant association with IL-6 and D-dimer levels. It was also indicated that participants who were under antiretroviral drug for <7 years were significantly associated with hsCRP levels. This study established that IL-6 levels were significantly reduced after the intervention while hsCRP and D-dimer levels showed no significant difference between before and after the intervention.

Undetectable = Untransmittable (U = U) Messaging Increases Uptake of HIV Testing Among Men: Results from a Pilot Cluster Randomized Trial

HIV testing coverage in sub-Saharan Africa is lower among men than women. We investigated the impact of a peer-delivered U = U (undetectable equals untransmittable) message on men’s HIV testing uptake through a cluster randomised trial with individual mobile clinic days as unit of randomisation. On standard of care (SOC) days, peer promoters informed men about the availability of HIV testing at the mobile clinic. On intervention days, peer promoters delivered U = U messages. We used logistic regression adjusting for mobile clinic location, clustering by study day, to determine the percentage of invited men who tested for HIV at the mobile clinic. Peer promoters delivered 1048 invitations over 12 days. In the SOC group, 68 (13%) of 544 men invited tested for HIV (3, 4.4% HIV-positive). In the U = U group, 112 (22%) of 504 men invited tested for HIV (7, 6.3% HIV-positive). Men in the U = U group had greater odds of testing for HIV (adjusted odds ratio = 1.89, 95% CI 1.21–2.95; p = 0.01). Tailored, peer-delivered messages that explain the benefits of HIV treatment in reducing HIV transmission can increase men’s HIV testing uptake.

Barriers to condom use in casual sexual relationships known as ukujola in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV in the world. Of the nine provinces in South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal is the worst affected. HIV is largely transmitted through unprotected penetrative sexual intercourse. Male latex condoms are central to HIV prevention because of their effectiveness in preventing HIV transmission in almost all sexual encounters if used consistently and correctly. There are, however, various barriers to condom use. This study sought to unpack barriers to condom use in the context of ukujola (casual or informal sexual relationships) in a South African, isiZulu-speaking community. A generic qualitative approach was used, drawing on a range of methods - four focus groups and twenty in-depth interviews. The study was conducted exclusively with isiZulu-speaking African participants, aged 21-34 years, from the uMgungundlovu district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Ukujola relationships encompass all casual relationships, i.e. those in which there has never been involvement of the families. The involvement of families in negotiating ilobolo (bride wealth) is a prerequisite for legitimate relationships, particularly marriage. Multiple concurrent sexual partnerships typically exist in ukujola relationships, and unprotected sex is common. The interviews suggest the existence of various barriers to condom use, including lack of trust, sexual pleasure and alcohol. There is a need for increased HIV prevention campaigns with particular emphasis on consistent condom use.

Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data

Introduction

Model‐based estimates of key HIV indicators depend on past epidemic trends that are derived based on assumptions about HIV disease progression and mortality in the absence of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Population‐based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) household surveys conducted between 2015 and 2018 found substantial numbers of respondents living with untreated HIV infection. CD4 cell counts measured in these individuals provide novel information to estimate HIV disease progression and mortality rates off ART.

Methods

We used Bayesian multi‐parameter evidence synthesis to combine data on (1) cross‐sectional CD4 cell counts among untreated adults living with HIV from 10 PHIA surveys, (2) survival after HIV seroconversion in East African seroconverter cohorts, (3) post‐seroconversion CD4 counts and (4) mortality rates by CD4 count predominantly from European, North American and Australian seroconverter cohorts. We used incremental mixture importance sampling to estimate HIV natural history and ART uptake parameters used in the Spectrum software. We validated modelled trends in CD4 count at ART initiation against ART initiator cohorts in sub‐Saharan Africa.

Results

Median untreated HIV survival decreased with increasing age at seroconversion, from 12.5 years [95% credible interval (CrI): 12.1–12.7] at ages 15–24 to 7.2 years (95% CrI: 7.1–7.7) at ages 45–54. Older age was associated with lower initial CD4 counts, faster CD4 count decline and higher HIV‐related mortality rates. Our estimates suggested a weaker association between ART uptake and HIV‐related mortality rates than previously assumed in Spectrum. Modelled CD4 counts in untreated people living with HIV matched recent household survey data well, though some intercountry variation in frequencies of CD4 counts above 500 cells/mm³ was not explained. Trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation were comparable to data from ART initiator cohorts. An alternate model that stratified progression and mortality rates by sex did not improve model fit appreciably.

Conclusions

Synthesis of multiple data sources results in similar overall survival as previous Spectrum parameter assumptions but implies more rapid progression and longer survival in lower CD4 categories. New natural history parameter values improve consistency of model estimates with recent cross‐sectional CD4 data and trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation.

The Impact of the Evolving Human Immunodeficiency Virus Response on the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in South African Children and Adolescents

BACKGROUND

Few studies have evaluated tuberculosis control in children and adolescents. We used routine tuberculosis surveillance data to quantify age- and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-stratified trends over time and investigate the relationship between tuberculosis, HIV, age, and sex.

METHODS

All children and adolescents (0-19 years) routinely treated for drug-susceptible tuberculosis in South Africa and recorded in a de-duplicated national electronic tuberculosis treatment register (2004-2016) were included. Age- and HIV-stratified tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) were calculated in four age bands: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 years. The association between HIV infection, age, and sex in children and adolescents with tuberculosis was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 719 400 children and adolescents included, 339 112 (47%) were 0-4 year olds. The overall tuberculosis CNR for 0-19 year olds declined by 54% between 2009 and 2016 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], .45-.47). Trends varied by age and HIV, with the smallest reductions (2013-2016) in HIV-positive 0-4 year olds (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI, .85-.95) and both HIV-positive (IRR = .84; 95% CI, .80-.88) and HIV-negative (IRR = 0.89; 95% CI, .86-.92) 15-19 year olds. Compared with 0- to 4-year-old males, odds of HIV coinfection among 15-19 year olds were nearly twice as high in females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.49; 95% CI, 2.38-2.60) than in males (aOR = 1.35; 95% CI, 1.29-1.42).

CONCLUSIONS

South Africa's national response to the HIV epidemic has made a substantial contribution to the observed declining trends in tuberculosis CNRs in children and adolescents. The slow decline of tuberculosis CNRs in adolescents and young HIV-positive children is concerning. Understanding how tuberculosis affects children and adolescents beyond conventional age bands and by sex can inform targeted tuberculosis control strategies.

Indeterminate HIV PCR results within South Africa's early infant diagnosis programme, 2010-2019

OBJECTIVES

We describe the extent of, and variables associated with, indeterminate HIV-PCR results and final HIV status within South Africa's early infant diagnosis (EID) programme between 2010 and 2019.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of routine paediatric HIV-PCR laboratory data from South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service Data Warehouse between 2010 and 2019. Final HIV status was determined by linking patient results (including HIV-PCR, HIV viral load, HIV serology and CD4 counts) using a probabilistic matching algorithm. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine variables associated with final HIV status among patients with an indeterminate HIV-PCR result.

RESULTS

Among 4 429 742 specimens registered for HIV-PCR testing from 3 816 166 patients, 113 209 (2.97%) tested positive and 22 899 (0.6%) tested indeterminate. As a proportion of HIV-detected results, 15.7% (23 896/151 832) of total and 31.5% (4900/15 566), 18.8% (11 400/60 794) and 10.1% (7596/75 472) among patients aged <7 days, 7 days-3 months and ≥3 months, respectively, were reported as indeterminate. Overall, 39.7% of patients with an indeterminate result had a linked HIV test to determine HIV status, of which 53.6% were positive with a median time to repeat testing of 30 days (interquartile range 15-69). Among patients who tested indeterminate, variables associated with a significantly higher odds of having a positive HIV status included testing indeterminate at birth (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.63 (0.48-0.83) and 0.52 (0.39-0.69) for testing indeterminate at 7 days-3 months and ≥3 months respectively compared with birth), within a hospital (AOR 2.45 (1.99-3.03)), and in districts with an intra-uterine transmission rate ≥1.1% (AOR 3.14 (1.84-5.35)) (p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

Indeterminate HIV-PCR results represent a considerable burden of missed diagnostic opportunities, diagnostic dilemmas and delays in making a definite diagnosis among HIV-infected infants within South Africa's EID programme. Alternative EID verification practices are urgently needed.

Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register

In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80-0.83). The highest SMR was in 15-24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15-24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.

Beyond HIV prevalence: identifying people living with HIV within underserved areas in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Despite progress towards the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets, South Africa is still suffering from one of the largest HIV epidemics globally. In this study, we generated high-resolution HIV prevalence maps and identified people living with HIV (PLHIV) in underserved areas to provide essential information for the optimal allocation of HIV-related services.

METHODS

The data come from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2016 and spatial variables from other published literature. We produced high-resolution maps of HIV prevalence and underserved areas, defined as a greater than 30 min travel time to the nearest healthcare facility. Using these maps and the population density, we mapped PLHIV and the PLHIV within underserved areas for 30, 60 and 120 min thresholds.

RESULTS

There was substantial geographic variation in HIV prevalence, ranging from 1.4% to 24.2%, with a median of 11.5% for men, and from 2.1% to 48.1%, with a median of 20.6% for women. Gauteng province showed the highest density for both HIV prevalence and PLHIV. 80% of all areas in the country were identified as underserved areas (30 min threshold), which contained more than 16% and 20% of the total men and women living with HIV, respectively. KwaZulu-Natal province had the largest number of PLHIV in underserved areas (30 min threshold) and showed less than one healthcare facility per 1000 PLHIV.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed extensive spatial variation of HIV prevalence and significant numbers of PLHIV in underserved areas in South Africa. Moreover, we identified locations where HIV-related services need to be intensified to reach the ~1.5 million PLHIV in underserved areas, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal province, with less than one healthcare facility per 1000 PLHIV.

HIV infection in Eastern and Southern Africa: Highest burden, largest challenges, greatest potential

BACKGROUND

The burden of HIV is especially concerning for Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA), as despite expansion of test-and-treat programmes, this region continues to experience significant challenges resulting from high rates of morbidity, mortality and new infections. Hard-won lessons from programmes on the ground in ESA should be shared.

OBJECTIVES

This report summarises relevant evidence and regional experts' recommendations regarding challenges specific to ESA.

METHOD

This commentary includes an in-depth review of relevant literature, progress against global goals and consensus opinion from experts.

RESULTS

Recommendations include priorities for essential research (surveillance data collection, key and vulnerable population education and testing, in-country testing trials and evidence-based support services to improve retention in care) as well as research that can accelerate progress towards the prevention of new infections and achieving ambitious global goals in ESA.

CONCLUSION

The elimination of HIV in ESA will require continued investment, commitment to evidence-based programmes and persistence. Local research is critical to ensuring that responses in ESA are targeted, efficient and evaluated.