Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

The burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Latin America.

STUDY DESIGN

An ecological study design was applied.

METHODS

The data on T2DM (i.e. incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years [DALYs], years lived with disability [YLDs] and years of life lost [YLLs]) were extracted from the Global Burden Disease 2019 study. To assess the trends, the average annual percentage change was computed using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Approximately 2.3 million new cases of T2DM were diagnosed in Latin America in 2019, with about 214,000 deaths. The age-standardised rates of T2DM burden in 2019 were highest in Central Latin America. Incidence of T2DM has increased in both males and females in Latin America over the last three decades, while mortality has increased only in males. Of particular concern are the significant increasing trends in the incidence of T2DM among individuals in the young age and middle age groups (15-64 years) in both men and in women. Increasing trends in the burden of T2DM were observed in almost all countries of Andean Latin America, the Caribbean and Central Latin America (in particular, in Guatemala, where T2DM incidence increased by 2.4% per year, mortality by 3.7%, DALYs by 3.4%, YLDs by 2.7% and YLLs by 3.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

T2DM is an important health issue in Latin America due to the high mortality and disability burdens and the impact on life expectancy and quality of life of the population. Unfavourable trends in T2DM burden highlight the need to introduce effective public health disease management strategies.

Estimated reduction in obesity prevalence and costs of a 20% and 30% ad valorem excise tax to sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with obesity, metabolic diseases, and incremental healthcare costs. Given their health consequences, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that countries implement taxes on SSB. Over the last 10 years, obesity prevalence has almost doubled in Brazil, yet, in 2016, the Brazilian government cut the existing federal SSB taxes to their current 4%. Since 2022, a bill to impose a 20% tax on SSB has been under discussion in the Brazilian Senate. To simulate the potential impact of increasing taxes on SSB in Brazil, we aimed to estimate the price-elasticity of SSB and the potential impact of a new 20% or 30% excise SSB tax on consumption, obesity prevalence, and cost savings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using household purchases data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey (POF) from 2017/2018, we estimated constant elasticity regressions. We used a log-log specification by income level for all beverage categories: (1) sugar-sweetened beverages; (2) alcoholic beverages; (3) unsweetened beverages; and (4) low-calorie or artificially sweetened beverages. We estimated the adult nationwide baseline intake for each beverage category using 24-h dietary recall data collected in 2017/2018. Taking group one as the taxed beverages, we applied the price and cross-price elasticities to the baseline intake data, we obtained changes in caloric intake. The caloric reduction was introduced into an individual dynamic model to estimate changes in weight and obesity prevalence. No benefits on cost savings were modeled during the first 3 years of intervention to account for the time lag in obesity cases to reduce costs. We multiplied the reduction in obesity cases during 7 years by the obesity costs per capita to predict the costs savings attributable to the sweetened beverage tax. SSB price elasticities were higher among the lowest tertile of income (-1.24) than in the highest income tertile (-1.13), and cross-price elasticities suggest SSB were weakly substituted by milk, water, and 100% fruit juices. We estimated a caloric change of -17.3 kcal/day/person under a 20% excise tax and -25.9 kcal/day/person under a 30% tax. Ten years after implementation, a 20% tax is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 6.7%; 9.1% for a 30% tax. These reductions translate into a -2.8 million and -3.8 million obesity cases for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively, and a reduction of $US 13.3 billion and $US 17.9 billion in obesity costs over 10 years for a 20% and 30% tax, respectively. Study limitations include using a quantile distribution method to adjust self-reported baseline weight and height, which could be insufficient to correct for reporting bias; also, weight, height, and physical activity were assumed to be steady over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding a 20% to 30% excise tax on top of Brazil's current federal tax could help to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed beverages, empty calories, and body weight while avoiding large health-related costs. Given the recent cuts to SSB taxes in Brazil, a program to revise and implement excise taxes could prove beneficial for the Brazilian population.

BMI/Obesity and consumers' price sensitivity: Implications for food tax policies

We examine the relationship between BMI and food purchase behavior using a unique dataset that links individual-level food purchases to health data. We find that individuals with higher BMI are significantly more sensitive to price changes in vice categories but do not show similar sensitivity in comparable nonvice categories. We rely on past literature that defines and identifies vice categories as those that are tempting and purchased impulsively. We explore the effectiveness of a 10% price increase on vice food categories, a hypothetical policy similar in spirit to a fat tax or sugar tax. We predict that such a tax would substantially reduce consumption of these foods, and would be particularly effective in reducing consumption by individuals with higher BMI.

The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position.

DESIGN

We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income.

SETTING

Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

19 742 respondents aged 2 and over.

RESULTS

In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income.

CONCLUSIONS

Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.

Perspective: Mexico's Experience in Building a Toolkit for Obesity and Noncommunicable Diseases Prevention

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with a higher risk of death in low- and middle-income countries. Diet and excess weight are risk factors for NCDs. In Mexico, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased dramatically in the last 30 y and is among the highest in the world. To address this public health problem, governments and public health professionals have several policy instruments available. In this study, we present the policy instruments currently approved in Mexico, which include fiscal, informational, and authoritative tools that aim to improve the food environment and promote healthy behaviors (taxes, school food guidelines, front-of-pack labeling, marketing regulations, and dietary guidelines). These types of interventions are important in regions like Latin America, where social inequities and poor access to information are common, and individual healthy choices are often limited. These interventions target the environments in which individuals live, study, work, and seek entertainment, while limiting access to unhealthy choices and offering information to promote healthy alternatives. The Mexican experience in design, implementation, and evaluation of policies to improve the food environment can be useful for other low- and middle-income countries facing similar challenges.

The impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages on diabetes: a critical review

The global burden of type 2 diabetes is increasing at an alarming rate, fuelled by the obesity epidemic, with significant associated health and economic consequences and apparent inequalities. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars in diets worldwide and have been linked to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes through a variety of mechanisms, including excess weight. Taxing SSBs has become a promising public health strategy to reduce consumption and mitigate the burden of type 2 diabetes. A substantial body of evidence suggests that SSB taxes lead to increased prices and subsequent reduced consumption, with a potentially greater effect among lower socioeconomic groups. This highlights the potential for tax policies to have an impact on type 2 diabetes and address health inequalities. Evidence from several ongoing SSB tax schemes, including sales and excise taxes, indicates positive effects on improving consumption patterns, and modelling studies point to health gains by averting type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, evidence from empirical evaluation of the impact of SSB tax is scarce. Continued monitoring and the strengthening of evaluation research to develop context-tailored policies are required. In addition, there is a need to implement complementary efforts to amplify the impact of SSB taxation and effectively address the global burden of type 2 diabetes.

Health and economic burden of sugar-sweetened beverages consumption in Brazil

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

Building upon the sugar beverage tax in Mexico: a modelling study of tax alternatives to increase benefits

INTRODUCTION

In 2014, Mexico implemented a one peso-per-litre tax to sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB). Even though this tax reduced household purchases and predicted population health gains, the magnitude is lower compared with taxes implemented in other settings. In this study, we assessed what would happen if Mexico modified its existing tax to get higher benefits based on currently implemented taxes elsewhere.

METHODS

For each tax scenario, we estimated net benefits as the difference between healthcare savings and lost jobs. We created hypothetical scenarios in which the current tax doubled or would be modified based on existing tax designs around the world including specific taxes (sugar-density or volumetric) and ad-valorem taxes.

RESULTS

We found that the largest benefits would correspond to a tax increase of 7.4 Mexican pesos (0.45 US dollars (USD)) per SSB litre, following the current tax in Bahrain (the highest tax rate option). This tax is predicted to yield net benefits equivalent to USD 24.7 billion after 10 years of the tax redesign. We also found that sugar-density taxes can result in larger net benefits since, in addition to reductions in consumption associated with responses to prices, they induce product reformulation. Middle-income households are the most benefited group because they reported the highest baseline prevalence of obesity and the largest price elasticity.

CONCLUSION

Policymakers should consider pursuing a tax reform adding to the current tax, with significant increases in prices linked to a sugar-density strategy to reach a higher benefit.

Profiling ultra-processed foods in Thailand: sales trend, consumer expenditure and nutritional quality

BACKGROUND

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) are associated with adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to analyse the national trends in retail sales, consumer expenditure and nutritional quality of UPFs in Thailand.

METHODS

The study used data from the Euromonitor Passport database for analysis of retail sales and consumer expenditure, and from the Mintel Global New Products Database for nutritional analysis using the WHO Southeast Asian Region nutrient profile model.

RESULTS

The study found the highest per capita sales volume and value of UPFs in 2021 were sauces, dressings & condiments (8.4 kg/capita) and carbonated soft drinks (27.1 L/capita), respectively. However, functional & flavoured water, ready-made meals and baked goods had the highest observed (2012-2021) and expected (2021-2026) sales growth. Supermarkets were responsible for most of the UPF sales since 2012, but convenience stores had larger growth in retail values. Growth in consumer expenditure per capita on UPFs from 2012 to 2020, ranged between 12.7% and 34%, and till 2026 is forecast to grow between 26% and 30%. More than half of UPFs exceeded at least one nutrient cutoff, 59.3% for total fats, 24.8% for saturated fats, 68.2% for total sugars and 94.3% for sodium.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a need for regulatory and non-regulatory measures such as UPF taxation and marketing restrictions, and market incentives for producing non-UPFs. A system for regularly monitoring and evaluating healthiness (both nutritional and processing aspects) of food products, especially UPFs, is required.

Effect of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on sugars intake and dental caries: an umbrella review of a global perspective

BACKGROUND

As part of the Global Strategy on Oral health, the World Health Organization (WHO) is exploring cost-effective interventions for oral health, including taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). To inform this process, this umbrella review aimed to identify the best available estimates pertaining to the impact of SSB taxation on the reduction of sugars intake, and the sugars-caries dose-response, such that estimates of the impact of SSB taxation on averting dental caries in both high (HIC) and low and middle (LMIC) countries be available.

METHODS

The questions addressed were: (1) what are the effects of SSB taxation on consumption of SSBs and (2) sugars? (3) What is the effect on caries of decreasing sugars? and (4) what is the likely impact of a 20% volumetric SSB tax on the number of active caries prevented over 10 years? Data sources included PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, Dentistry and Oral Sciences Source, Cochrane Library, Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Systematic Review Register, and PROSPERO. The review was conducted with reference to JBI guidelines. The quality of included systematic reviews was assessed using AMSTAR to identify best evidence.

RESULTS

From 419 systematic reviews identified for questions 1 & 2, and 103 for question 3, 48 (Questions 1 & 2) and 21 (Question 3) underwent full text screening, yielding 14 and five included reviews respectively. Best available data indicated a 10% tax would reduce SSB intake by 10.0% (95% CI: -5.0, 14.7%) in HIC and by 9% (range -6.0 to 12.0%) in LMIC, and that a 20% tax would reduce free sugars intake on average by 4.0 g/d in LMIC and 4.4 g/d in HIC. Based on best available dose response data, this could reduce the number of teeth with caries per adults (HIC and LMIC) by 0.03 and caries occurrence in children by 2.7% (LMIC) and 2.9% (HIC), over a 10-year period.

CONCLUSION

Best available data suggest a 20% volumetric SSB tax would have a modest impact on prevalence and severity of dental caries in both HIC and LMIC.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

The burden of disease and economic impact of sugar-sweetened beverages' consumption in Argentina: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Approximately two-thirds of Argentine adults are overweight or obese, and 11% have diabetes. Over the last two decades, all population groups have increased their consumption of ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We aimed to estimate the disease burden-deaths, events, and costs to the health system-attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina.

METHODS

We used a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the health and economic impacts that would be avoided in a scenario without sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. We calculated the direct effects on diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and BMI, and then estimated the effects of BMI on disease incidence. Finally, we applied the population attributable factor to calculate the health and economic burden avoided in Argentina in 2020.

RESULTS

Our model estimated that about 4,425 deaths, 110,000 healthy life years lost to premature death and disability, more than 520,000 cases of overweight and obesity in adults, and 774,000 in children and adolescents would be attributed to SSB Consumption in Argentina. This disease burden corresponds to 23% of type-2 diabetes cases and other significant proportions of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The overweight and obesity costs attributable to SSB totaled approximately $47 million in adults and $15 million in children and adolescents.

CONCLUSION

A significant number of disease cases, deaths, and health care costs could be attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina. Implementing measures to reduce the sugar content in beverages is a pending debt for the country and could lead to measurable improvements in population health, especially among children and adolescents.

Contextual Specificity of (Un)Healthy Food/Drink Intake in Everyday Life: A Study Based on Episodic Memories

Identifying the contexts of episodes of (un)healthy food/drink intake could inform strategies for eating more healthily. This study assessed memories of recent episodes of healthy and unhealthy eating from adults in Mexico. For each (un)healthy eating episode participants recalled place, time of day, people present and food/drink intake. Categories were formed for the contextual features and foods/drinks that were reported, then the relative frequency of each category was tested between healthy and unhealthy eating episodes. Overall, there was a large set of categories of (un)healthy food/drink choices, and there were more healthy eating episodes with family at home and unhealthy eating episodes with friends out of home. However, as expected, a more specific context as well as food/drink intake was identified for each sort of recalled (un)healthy eating episode of the day. Additionally, eating out of home, later in the day and with people present were features related to higher estimated energy content across (un)healthy eating episodes. These findings support the assessment of self-reported memories of recent eating episodes to generate evidence that contribute to contexts that support healthy eating habits.

Health and economic burden of disease of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in four Latin American and Caribbean countries: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

Overweight and obesity are important contributors to the non-communicable disease burden. The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease, cancer and other conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of disease attributable to the consumption of SSBs and the costs to the healthcare systems in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.

DESIGN

Following a systematic review of models, a comparative risk assessment framework was developed to estimate the health and economic impact associated with the consumption of SSBs.

SETTING

Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.

PARTICIPANTS

Overall population.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The model estimated the effects of SSB consumption on health through two causal pathways: one mediated by body mass index (BMI) and health conditions associated with BMI and another that reflected the independent effects of SSB consumption on T2DM and cardiovascular diseases.

RESULTS

The model results indicated that for all four countries, in 1 year, SSB consumption was associated with 18 000 deaths (3.2% of the total disease-related deaths), seven million disease events (3.3% of the total disease-related events), a half-million DALYs and US$2 billion in direct medical costs. This included 1.5 million cases of overweight and obesity in children/adolescents (12% of the excess weight cases) and 2.8 million cases in adults (2.8%); 2.2 million cases of type 2 diabetes (19%); 200 000 cases of heart disease (3.8%); 124 000 strokes (3.9%); 116 000 cases of musculoskeletal disease (0.2%); 102 000 cases of kidney disease (0.9%); and 45 000 episodes of asthma (0.4%). The Trinidad and Tobago population were the most affected by disease events.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results indicate that the consumption of SSBs is associated with a significant burden of disease and death in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension among the adults in South Asia: A multinomial logit model

Hypertension has been the most common non-communicable disease in low and middle-income countries for the past two decades, increasing cardiovascular and renal disease risk. Urbanization, aging, dietary and lifestyle changes, high illiteracy rates, poor access to health facilities, poverty, high costs of drugs, and social stress have contributed to an increase in the prevalence of hypertension in developing countries. Nonetheless, little is known about the comprehensive risk factors associated with prehypertension and hypertension among economically active adult populations of South Asia, such as India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. This paper uses the Demographic and Health Survey data of 637,396 individuals from India (2019-21), 8,924 from Nepal (2016), and 8,613 from Bangladesh (2017-18) to examine the prevalence and driver of prehypertension and hypertension. We analyze the prevalence of prehypertension because it leads to hypertension and is directly related to cardiovascular disease, and many people live with it for prolonged periods without realizing it. The paper finds, among other things, that the prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension among adults (18-49 years) is 43.2 and 14.9% in India, 35.1% and 19.8% in Bangladesh, and 25.2% and 13.8% in Nepal, respectively. Better educated, wealthy individuals living in urban areas of developing economies in the South Asian region are more likely to have prehypertension and hypertension. The paper suggests the urgent need to launch preventive programs to reduce prehypertension before it develops to be hypertension as a precautionary measure. Thus, such measures shall help to prevent hypertension, thereby improving the overall wellbeing of individuals and families.

[Burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El SalvadorCarga de morbidade e econômica atribuível ao consumo de bebidas açucaradas em El Salvador]

Objective

To estimate the burden of disease and economic burden attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador.

Methods

A comparative risk model was used to estimate the effects on deaths, health events, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and direct medical costs attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages.

Results

A total of 520 deaths (8 per 100 000 individuals), 214 082 health events (3 220 per 100 000 individuals) and 16 643 DALYs could be attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador, representing US$69.35 million in direct medical costs for the year 2020. In particular, type 2 diabetes (T2DM) events attributable to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages could represent more than 20% of total T2DM cases in the country.

Conclusion

A high number of deaths, events, and costs could be attributed to the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in El Salvador.

What does our region need in order to strengthen public policies on sugar-sweetened beverages? decision-makers' dialogue

In order to prioritize public policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago and to identify information gaps related to the burden of disease attributable to their consumption, a policy dialogue was held with government members, civil society organizations, researchers and communicators from Latin American and Caribbean countries. Presentations and deliberative workshops were conducted using semi-structured data collection tools and group discussions. The prioritized interventions were tax increases, front labeling, restriction of advertising, promotion and sponsorship, and modifications regarding the school environment. The main perceived barrier was the interference from the food industry. This dialogue among decision-makers led to the identification of priority public policies to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in the region.

The Potential Impact of Different Taxation Scenarios towards Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Overweight and Obesity in Brazil: A Modeling Study

The adoption of fiscal policies based on the specific taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been recommended by international health agencies, as they are measures that potentially reduce consumption. This study is an ex ante risk comparison that estimates the impact of three tax scenarios (20, 25, and 30%) with a 100% pass-on rate to SSBs on the prevalence of high weight and obesity in the Brazilian population. Data on the consumption habits, weight, and height of 46,164 adults aged 20 years or over from Brazilian recent national surveys were used. The shift in consumption after taxation was estimated based on the price elasticity of the demand. The percentage changes in overweight for 20, 25, and 30% taxation were 1.84% (95%CI: 1.82; 1.86), 1.89% (95%CI: 1.87; 1.90), and 2.25% (95%CI: 2.24; 2.27), respectively. The change in the prevalence of obesity was 1.93% (95%CI: 1.87; 2.00), 2.90% (95%CI: 2.80; 3.02), and 4.16% (95%CI: 4.01; 4.32), respectively. Taxes on SSBs may have a more favorable result among the heaviest consumers, who are young adults (20-29 years), especially men, thereby promoting a greater reduction in the prevalence of high weight and obesity.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

Invited Commentary: Mechanistic and Biologically Based Models in Epidemiology-A Powerful Underutilized Tool

Mechanistic and biologically based mathematical models of chronic and behavioral disease processes aim to capture the main mechanistic or biological features of the disease development and to connect these with epidemiologic outcomes. These approaches have a long history in epidemiologic research and are complementary to traditional epidemiologic or statistical approaches to investigate the role of risk factor exposures on disease risk. Simonetto et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(10):1766-1775) present a mechanistic, process-oriented model to investigate the role of smoking, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the development of atherosclerotic lesions and their progression to myocardial infarction. Their approach builds on and brings to cardiovascular disease the ideas and perspectives of earlier mechanistic and biologically based models for the epidemiology of cancer and other chronic diseases, providing important insights into the mechanisms and epidemiology of smoking related myocardial infarction. We argue that although mechanistic modeling approaches have demonstrated their value and place in epidemiology, they are highly underutilized. We call for efforts to grow mechanistic and biologically based modeling research, expertise, and awareness in epidemiology, including the development of training and collaboration opportunities to attract more students and researchers from science, technology, engineering, and medical field into the epidemiology field.

How the "Are We Drinking Ourselves Sick?" Communication Campaign Built Support for Policy Action on Sugary Drinks in Jamaica

Background: This study assesses the effectiveness of a campaign “Are We Drinking Ourselves Sick?” that ran nationally in Jamaica in four phases from 2017 to 2019 to increase knowledge about the harms of sugary drinks, shift attitudes, and build support for policy actions to address sugary drink consumption, including a tax and a ban in schools. Methods: Campaign impact was measured in representative cross-sectional household surveys of adults ages 18 to 55. A baseline survey was conducted before the launch of the campaign (n = 1430). Evaluation surveys were conducted mid-campaign (n = 1571) and post-campaign (n = 1500). Campaign impact was assessed by comparing changes across survey periods on key knowledge, attitudinal and policy support outcome indicators. The independent association between campaign awareness and outcomes was analyzed using logistic regression analyses. Results: The campaign was recalled by more than 80% of respondents and was well-received with 90% or more respondents describing it as believable and relevant. There was a decline in knowledge on the harms of sugary drinks from the baseline to post-campaign period, notably on risks of diabetes (adjusted odds ratio or AOR = 0.62, p < 0.001), overweight and obesity (AOR = 0.58, p < 0.001), and heart disease (AOR = 0.79, p < 0.003). However, post-campaign awareness was independently associated in logistic regression analysis with improved knowledge of the harms of sugary drinks, including risks of diabetes (AOR = 1.45, p = 0.019), overweight or obesity (AOR = 1.65, p = 0.001), and heart disease (AOR = 1.44, p = 0.011). Support for government action remained high across survey waves (≥90%), and campaign awareness was independently associated with increased policy support for sugary drinks taxes (Mid-campaign: AOR = 1.43, p = 0.019; post-campaign: AOR = 1.46, p = 0.01) and restrictions on sugary drinks in schools (AOR = 1.55, p = 0.01). Conclusion: This study demonstrates the role that media campaigns can play in maintaining knowledge and concern about the health harms of sugary drinks and increasing support for policy passage.

Effects of public policies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review of global literature

OBJECTIVES

Given the growing interest worldwide in applying public policies to improve human health, we undertook a systematic review of studies investigating whether public policies targeting unhealthy products could reduce cardiovascular diseases.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

We searched research studies published in 2000-2020 from major databases, including MEDLINE and Embase. We followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and narratively synthesized the studies based on vote counting and direction of the intervention effect.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight studies, mostly from high-income countries, met the inclusion criteria. Most studies were on public policies targeting sugar-sweetened beverages and tobacco, followed by alcohol, sugar, salt, and junk foods. Overall, many reported that several fiscal, regulatory, and educational policies generated beneficial effects of reducing the diseases. Those studies that reported no or limited effects highlighted several sociodemographic and health risk characteristics and design and implementation aspects of the policy interventions as factors limiting the policy effects; most of these are modifiable with appropriate policy interventions. For instance, low magnitude of tax, substitution with other unhealthy products, firms' competitive response strategies, pre-existence of smoking bans, incremental enactment of smoking regulations, degree of enforcement, and various sociocultural factors minimized the effects of the policies.

CONCLUSION

The literature supports a growing consensus on the beneficial effects of public policy for improving human health. The design and implementation of public policies must address various impeding factors and incorporate appropriate remedial measures. Further research is needed from low- and middle-income countries and on whether and how multiple policy instruments work in tandem.

Changes in Sugar Sweetened Beverage Intake Are Associated with Changes in Body Composition in Mexican Adolescents: Findings from the ELEMENT Cohort

Changes in consumption of sugar sweetened beverage (SSBs) have been associated with increased body mass index (BMI), but little work has evaluated the effect on waist circumference (WC) and body fat percentage during adolescence, a period characterized by rapid growth and change in dietary behaviors. We examined the relationship of changes in SSB intake and changes in adiposity over two years in 464 Mexican adolescents. Food frequency questionnaires were used to sum intake of regular soda, coffee with sugar, tea with sugar, sweetened water with fruit, chocolate milk, corn atole, and a sweetened probiotic milk beverage. Linear regression models were used to estimate the associations of changes in SSBs with changes in BMI, body fat percentage, and WC, adjusting for sex, socioeconomic status, screen time, physical activity, age, and change in age. Adolescents who increased their daily SSB intake by >2 serving had a −2.72% higher body fat percentage (95% CI: 0.61, 4.82); a 1−2 serving increase was associated with a 2.49 cm increase (95% CI: 0.21, 4.76) in WC compared with those with no change in intake. Within an adolescent sample, changes in SSB intake were related to concomitant changes in body fat percentage and WC, but not BMI.

Changes in Weight-Related Outcomes Among Adolescents Following Consumer Price Increases of Taxed Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

IMPORTANCE

Following the implementation of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Mexico in 2014, SSB prices increased by about 10% on average, but differently across cities. It remains unclear how observed SSB price changes are associated with adolescent weight-related outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To compare weight-related outcomes among adolescents living in cities with differential SSB price changes before and after the SSB tax was implemented in Mexico.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Associations between differential SSB price changes and changes in weight-related outcomes were examined overall and by sex among 12 654 adolescents aged 10 to 18 years born between 1999 and 2002 living in 39 cities in Mexico. Multivariate regressions with individual fixed effects were applied on longitudinal individual-level yearly clinical data (height and weight) from 2012 to 2017 collected by the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) and merged with city-level SSB price data from 2011 to 2016 collected by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Data were analyzed from July 2018 to July 2021.

EXPOSURES

Yearly city-level changes in SSB prices between 2011 and 2016.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Age- and sex-specific body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) percentile and indicator for overweight or obesity if BMI was at or above the 85th percentile.

RESULTS

Before 2014, 46% of 12 654 adolescents (6850 girls and 5804 boys) included in this study had obesity or overweight. The mean (SD) age was 11.38 (1.08) years. Among girls, a 10% SSB price increase was associated with a 1.3 percentage point absolute decrease (95% CI, -2.19 to -0.36; P = .008) or a 3% relative decrease in overweight or obesity prevalence within 2 years of a price change. For girls with BMI at or above the 75th percentile pretax, this price increase was associated with a 0.59 lower BMI percentile (95% CI, -1.08 to -0.10; P = .02) or a 0.67% relative decrease. Improved outcomes for girls were observed in cities where price increases were greater than 10% after the tax. No such associations were observed for boys.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, increased SSB prices were associated with decreased overweight or obesity prevalence among girls but not among boys. Improvements in outcomes were small, and mostly observed for girls with heavier weight and in cities where price increases after the tax were greater than 10%.

The nutrition transition to a stage of high obesity and noncommunicable disease prevalence dominated by ultra-processed foods is not inevitable

The Nutrition Transition model is presented with the nature and pace of change in key stages varying by location and subpopulations. At present, all high-income and many low- and middle-income countries are in a stage of the transition where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are dominating adult morbidity and mortality and are very high or growing rapidly in prevalence. Some countries still have key subpopulations facing hunger and undernutrition defined by stunting or extreme thinness among adults. We call these double burden of malnutrition countries. All low- and middle-income countries face rapid growth in consumption of ultra-processed food and beverages, but it is not inevitable that these countries will reach the same high levels of consumption seen in high-income countries, with all the negative impacts of this diet on health. With great political and civil society commitment to adoption of policies shown in other countries to have improved dietary choices and social norms around foods, we can arrest and even reverse the rapid shift to diets dominated by a stage of high ultra-processed food intake and increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.

Applications of Complex Systems Models to Improve Retail Food Environments for Population Health: A Scoping Review

Retail food environments (RFEs) are complex systems with important implications for population health. Studying the complexity within RFEs comes with challenges. Complex systems models are computational tools that can help. We performed a systematic scoping review of studies that used complex systems models to study RFEs for population health. We examined the purpose for using the model, RFE features represented, extent to which the complex systems approach was maximized, and quality and transparency of methods employed. The PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guidelines were followed. Studies using agent-based modeling, system dynamics, discrete event simulations, networks, hybrid, or microsimulation models were identified from 7 multidisciplinary databases. Fifty-six studies met the inclusion criteria, including 23 microsimulation, 13 agent-based, 10 hybrid, 4 system dynamics, 4 network, and 2 discrete event simulation models. Most studies (n = 45) used models for experimental purposes and evaluated effects of simulated RFE policies and interventions. RFE characteristics simulated in models were diverse, and included the features (e.g., prices) customers encounter when shopping (n = 55), the settings (e.g., restaurants, supermarkets) where customers purchase food and beverages (n = 30), and the actors (e.g., store managers, suppliers) who make decisions that influence RFEs (n = 25). All models incorporated characteristics of complexity (e.g., feedbacks, conceptual representation of multiple levels), but these were captured to varying degrees across model types. The quality of methods was adequate overall; however, few studies engaged stakeholders (n = 10) or provided sufficient transparency to verify the model (n = 12). Complex systems models are increasingly utilized to study RFEs and their contributions to public health. Opportunities to advance the use of these approaches remain, and areas to improve future research are discussed. This comprehensive review provides the first marker of the utility of leveraging these approaches to address RFEs for population health.

Effectiveness of a Gamification Strategy to Prevent Childhood Obesity in Schools: A Cluster Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a school-based gamification strategy to prevent childhood obesity.

METHODS

Schools were randomized in Santiago, Chile, between March and May 2018 to control or to receive a nutrition and physical activity intervention using a gamification strategy (i.e., the use of points, levels, and rewards) to achieve healthy challenges. The intervention was delivered for 7 months and participants were assessed at 4 and 7 months. Primary outcomes were mean difference in BMI z score and waist circumference (WC) between trial arms at 7 months. Secondary outcomes were mean difference in BMI and systolic and diastolic blood pressure between trial arms at 7 months.  RESULTS: A total of 24 schools (5 controls) and 2,197 students (653 controls) were analyzed. Mean BMI z score was lower in the intervention arm compared with control (adjusted mean difference -0.133, 95% CI: -0.25 to -0.01), whereas no evidence of reduction in WC was found. Mean BMI and systolic blood pressure were lower in the intervention arm compared with control. No evidence of reduction in diastolic blood pressure was found.

CONCLUSIONS

The multicomponent intervention was effective in preventing obesity but not in reducing WC. Gamification is a potentially powerful tool to increase the effectiveness of school-based interventions to prevent obesity.

How should we evaluate sweetened beverage tax policies? A review of worldwide experience

Over 45 jurisdictions globally have implemented sweetened beverage taxes. Researchers and policymakers need to assess whether and how these taxes change beverage demand and supply, their intended and unanticipated health, economic and equity impacts. Lessons from such evaluations can maximise the policies' success and impact on non-communicable disease prevention globally. We discuss key theoretical, design and methodological considerations to help policymakers, funders and researchers commission and conduct rigorous evaluations of these policies and related disease prevention efforts. We encourage involving the perspectives of various stakeholders on what evaluations are needed given the specific context, what data and methods are appropriate, readily available or can be collected within time and budget constraints. A logic model /conceptual system map of anticipated implications across sectors and scales should help identify optimal study design, analytical techniques and measures. These models should be updated when synthesising findings across diverse methods and integrating findings across subpopulations using similar methods.

[Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the CaribbeanImposto especial de consumo sobre bebidas açucaradas na América Latina e no Caribe]

Objetivo.

Caracterizar el diseño de los impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en América Latina y el Caribe, y evaluar las oportunidades de aumentar su impacto en el consumo y la salud.

Métodos.

Se llevó a cabo una búsqueda y una evaluación exhaustivas de legislaciones vigentes a marzo del 2019, recopiladas mediante las herramientas de seguimiento ya existentes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud y de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, fuentes secundarias, así como mediante una encuesta a ministerios de finanzas. El análisis se centró en el tipo de productos gravados y la estructura y la base de estos impuestos selectivos.

Resultados.

De los 33 países evaluados, en 21 se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas. En siete países también se aplican impuestos selectivos sobre el agua embotellada y en al menos cuatro, se aplican tales impuestos sobre las bebidas lácteas azucaradas. Diez de estos impuestos selectivos al consumo son de tipo ad valorem con algunas bases imponibles fijadas en las primeras etapas de la cadena de valor, siete son de tipo específico y cuatro son de estructura combinada o mixta. En tres países se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo en función de la concentración de azúcares del producto.

Conclusiones.

Si bien el número de países en que se aplican impuestos selectivos al consumo de bebidas azucaradas es prometedor, existe una gran heterogeneidad en su diseño en cuanto a la estructura, la base imponible y los productos gravados. Se podrían aprovechar aún más los impuestos selectivos existentes para tener un mayor impacto sobre el consumo de bebidas azucaradas y la salud si se incluyeran todas las categorías de bebidas azucaradas, excluyendo el agua embotellada, y si se recurriera más a impuestos específicos ajustados regularmente según la inflación y basados posiblemente en la concentración de azúcares del producto. Todos los países se beneficiarían si hubiera mayor orientación. Futuras investigaciones deberían tener como objetivo abordar esta brecha.

Food and beverage industry interference in science and policy: efforts to block soda tax implementation in Mexico and prevent international diffusion

Mexico is the largest soft drink market in the world, with high rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Due to strains on the nation’s productivity and healthcare spending, Mexican lawmakers implemented one of the world’s first public health taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in 2014. Because Mexico’s tax was designed to reduce SSB consumption, it faced strong opposition from transnational food and beverage corporations. We analysed previously secret internal industry documents from major corporations in the University of California San Francisco’s Food Industry Documents Archive that shed light on the industry response to the Mexican soda tax. We also reviewed all available studies of the Mexican soda tax’s effectiveness, contrasting the results of industry-funded and non-industry-funded studies. We found that food and beverage industry trade organisations and front groups paid scientists to produce research suggesting that the tax failed to achieve health benefits while harming the economy. These results were disseminated before non-industry-funded studies could be finalized in peer review. Mexico still provided a real-world context for the first independent peer-reviewed studies documenting the effectiveness of soda taxation—studies that were ultimately promoted by the global health community. We conclude that the case of the Mexican soda tax shows that industry resistance can persist well after new policies have become law as vested interests seek to roll back legislation, and to stall or prevent policy diffusion. It also underscores the decisive role that conflict-of-interest-free, peer-reviewed research can play in implementing health policy innovations.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BACKGROUND

Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.

PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER

CRD42020121025 .

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages as a policy to reduce overweight and obesity in countries of different income classifications: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the potential impact of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes on overweight and obesity prevalence in countries of different income classifications.

DESIGN

Systematic review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines (PROSPERO number CRD42020161612). Five databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, LILACS (via Virtual Health Library) and MEDLINE (via PubMed), and Web of Science were searched, from January 2009 to December 2019. Articles that reported changes in purchases, sales, intake, body weight, BMI, overweight and/or obesity prevalence due to a tax on or price change in SSB were included.

SETTING

Studies conducted in countries of different income classifications.

PARTICIPANTS

The search yielded 8349 articles of which 21 met inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Among the sixteen studies selected, only two did not show that consumption, sales and purchase decreased as the price of SSB increased. In eight of the thirteen studies selected, a positive effect of an SSB tax on decreasing overweight and obesity prevalence was expected. It is estimated that a 20 % taxation on SSB would result in a greater decrease in the prevalence of overweight and obesity compared to a 10 % rate. Studies with no significant effect of taxing on sales, purchases, consumption and prevalence of obesity were from high-income countries, while significant effects of taxing on reducing purchase, consumption and/or obesity prevalence were found in studies from upper-middle- and middle-income countries.

CONCLUSION

A high SSB tax might be an effective fiscal policy to decrease purchase and consumption of SSB and reduce overweight/obesity prevalence, especially if the tax were specific for beverage volume.

Towards unified and impactful policies to reduce ultra-processed food consumption and promote healthier eating

The global surges in obesity and nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have created a need for decisive new food policy initiatives. A major concern has been the impact of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and ultra-processed drinks on weight gain and on the risk of several NCDs. These foods, generally high in calories, added sugar, sodium, and unhealthy fats, and poor in fibre, protein, and micronutrients, have extensive negative effects on human health and on the environment (due to their associated carbon emission and water use). There is a growing tendency worldwide, and especially in South America, for food companies to add micronutrients to UPFs to make health claims regarding these products, to which food-regulating authorities refer to fake foods. Although more than 45 countries and smaller subregional or urban entities have created taxes on ultra-processed drinks, such as sugar-sweetened beverages, only a few have adopted taxes on snacks and other UPFs, and none have added major subsidies for truly healthy, fresh or minimally processed food for people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Another major focus has been on developing effective package labelling. A smaller number of countries have selected the most impactful warning labels and linked them with other measures to create a mutually reinforcing set of policies; a few other countries have developed effective school food policies. We herein present in-depth results from key countries involved in all these actions and in comprehensive marketing controls, and conclude with our recommendations for the future. This field is quite new; progress to date is substantial, but much more is left to learn.

Impacts of a sugar sweetened beverage tax on body mass index and obesity in Thailand: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to address obesity. Thailand has just launched the new tax rates for SSB in 2017; however, the existing tax rate is not as high as the 20% recommended by the WHO. The objective for this study was to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on body mass index (BMI) and obesity prevalence in Thailand under three different scenarios based on existing SSB and recommended tax rates.

METHODS

A base model was built to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on SSB consumption, energy intake, BMI, and obesity prevalence. Literature review was conducted to estimate pass on rate, price elasticity, energy compensation, and energy balance to weight change. Different tax rates (11%, 20% and 25%) were used in the model. The model assumed no substitution effects, model values were based on international data since there was no empirical Thai data available. Differential effects by income groups were not estimated.

FINDINGS

When applying 11%, 20%, and 25% tax rates together with 100% pass on rate and an -1.30 own-price elasticity, the SSB consumption decreased by 14%, 26%, and 32%, respectively. The 20% and 25% price increase in SSB price tended to reduce higher energy intake, weight status and BMI, when compared with an 11% increase in existing price increase of SSB. The percentage changes of obesity prevalence of 11%, 20% and 25% SSB tax rates were estimated to be 1.73%, 3.83%, and 4.91%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher SSB tax (20% and 25%) was estimated to reduce consumption and consequently decrease obesity prevalence. Since Thailand has already endorsed the excise tax structure, the new excise tax structure for SSB should be scaled up to a 20% or 25% tax rate if the SSB consumption change does not meet a favourable goal.

Taxes to Unhealthy Food and Beverages and Oral Health in Mexico: An Observational Study

In January 2014, taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy-dense food were implemented in Mexico to discourage the consumption of these products. Published evaluations have shown reductions in purchases of taxed food and beverages associated with the implementation of this fiscal policy. Although there are some studies on the impact on health based on simulation studies, no evaluations with empirical data on changes in oral health have been published. We used administrative records and data from an epidemiological surveillance system to estimate changes in (1) outpatient visits related to dental caries; (2) having experienced dental caries: Decayed, Missing and Filled Teeth (DMFT) >0 for permanent dentition or dmft >0 for primary dentition (dmft); (3) number of teeth with caries experience (DMFT and dmft), (4) cases with DMFT >0 or dmft >0, and (5) the series of mean DMFT or dmft, associated with the taxes. We estimated probit and negative binomial models for outcomes at individual level, and interrupted time series analysis for population-level outcomes. The implementation of the taxes was associated with negative changes in the trends of outpatient visits, as well as for cases with DMFT >0, dmft >0 and mean DMFT. Taxes were also associated with a lower probability of having experienced dental caries and with a lower number of teeth with caries experience in the samples studied. Our results suggest positive impacts of the implementation of taxes on unhealthy food and beverages in the oral health of Mexicans, which are the first health benefits observed, and add to the health benefits predicted by modeling studies.

Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages in Latin America and the Caribbean

Objective

To characterize the design of excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Latin America and the Caribbean and assess opportunities to increase their impact on SSB consumption and health.

Methods

A comprehensive search and review of the legislation in effect as of March 2019, collected through existing Pan American Health Organization and World Health Organization monitoring tools, secondary sources, and surveying ministries of finance. The analysis focused on the type of products taxed, and the structure and base of these excise taxes.

Results

Out of the 33 countries analyzed, 21 apply excise taxes on SSBs. Seven countries also apply excise taxes on bottled water and at least four include sugar-sweetened milk drinks. Ten of these excise taxes are ad valorem with some tax bases set early in the value chain, seven are amount-specific, and four have either a combined or mixed structure. Three countries apply excise taxes based on sugar concentration.

Conclusions

While the number of countries applying excise taxes on SSBs is promising, there is great heterogeneity in design in terms of structure, tax base, and products taxed. Existing excise taxes could be further leveraged to improve their impact on SSB consumption and health by including all categories of SSBs, excluding bottled water, and relying more on amount-specific taxes regularly adjusted for inflation and possibly based on sugar concentration. All countries would benefit from additional guidance. Future research should aim to address this gap.

How do consumers respond to "sin taxes"? New evidence from a tax on sugary drinks

It is unclear what the effects of taxes on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are on consumer behaviour and which consumers may be affected the most. We evaluate the effect of the SSB tax introduced in Catalonia (but not in the rest of Spain) in May 2017 using loyalty card data of monthly purchases by 884,843 households from May 2016 to April 2018. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach, we study the SSB tax effect on the purchased quantity of beverages and sugar. Our results suggest a reduction in purchases of taxed beverages and a small increase in purchases of untaxed beverages. Households have substituted taxed beverages with their lower sugar (untaxed) counterparts. This has led to a 2.2% overall reduction in sugar purchases from beverages. Our study implies that although sin taxes moderately change consumer behaviour, a combination of different policies would be required to tackle obesity.

Potential Impact of the Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods Tax on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children: A Modeling Study

Background: Consumption of foods high in energy, sugar, fat, and salt contributes to the increase in body mass index and the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children. Mexico implemented an 8% tax to non-essential energy-dense foods (NEDF) in 2014 as part of a national strategy to reduce obesity. Objective: We modeled the potential effect of the NEDF tax on body mass index and overweight and obesity in Mexican children (6-17 years). Materials and Methods: We used the Dynamic Childhood Growth and Obesity Model calibrated to Mexican children to simulate the potential 1-year effect of the NEDF tax on body weight. Inputs for the model included NEDF consumption, weight, and height, obtained from the 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. To project the potential impact of the tax, we ran a first simulation without intervention and another reducing the caloric intake from NEDF in the proportion observed in the Mexican population after the tax (-5.1%). The tax effect was defined as the absolute difference in body mass index and prevalence of overweight and obesity between both models. Results: The tax on NEDF should lead to a mean reduction of 4.1 g or 17.4 kcal/day of NEDF at the population level. One year after the tax, mean body weight and body mass index should decrease 0.40 kg and 0.19 kg/m2; this translates into -1.7 and -0.4% points in overweight and obesity, respectively. Conclusions: The use of fiscal instruments to discourage the consumption of NEDF could help to reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children.

Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040

INTRODUCTION

As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.

RESULTS

Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.

Regular consumption of soft drinks is associated with type 2 diabetes incidence in Mexican adults: findings from a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although high consumption of soft drinks has been associated with excess of type 2 diabetes risk, the strength of this association in the Mexican population, where a type 2 diabetes genetic susceptibility has been well established, has been scarcely studied. This study aimed to estimate the risk of type 2 diabetes due to soft drinks consumption in a cohort of Mexicans.

METHODS

We used data on 1445 participants from the Health Workers Cohort Study, a prospective cohort conducted in Cuernavaca, Mexico. Soft drinks consumption was assessed with a semi-quantitative 116-item food frequency questionnaire. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined as self-report of physician-diagnosed type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose > 126 mg/dl, or hypoglycemic medication at any examination. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

With a total of 9526.2 person-years of follow-up, 109 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were observed. Type 2 diabetes incidence rate was 7.6, 11.0, and 17.1 per 1000 person-years across levels of soft drinks consumption of < 1, 1-4, and ≥ 5 servings/week, respectively (p < 0.001 for trend). The intake of ≥5 soft drinks/week was significantly associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 1.9 95% CI:1.0-3.5) compared with consumption of < 1/week (p-trend = 0.040). The HR was attenuated by further adjustment for body mass index (HR 1.5 95%CI:0.8-2.8) and abdominal obesity (HR 1.6 95%CI:0.8-3.0).

CONCLUSIONS

The consumption of soft drinks was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes in a cohort of Mexican adults. Our results further support recommendations to limit soft drinks intake to address the growing diabetes epidemic in Mexico.

Cost-Effectiveness Of The Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax In Mexico

An excise tax of 1 peso per liter on sugar-sweetened beverages was implemented in Mexico in 2014. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of this tax and an alternative tax scenario of 2 pesos per liter. We developed a cohort simulation model calibrated for Mexico to project the impact of the tax over ten years. The current tax is projected to prevent 239,900 cases of obesity, 39 percent of which would be among children. It could also prevent 61,340 cases of diabetes, lead to gains of 55,300 quality-adjusted life-years, and avert 5,840 disability-adjusted life-years. The tax is estimated to save $3.98 per dollar spent on its implementation. Doubling the tax to 2 pesos per liter would nearly double the cost savings and health impact. Countries with comparable conditions could benefit from implementing a similar tax.

Predicting obesity reduction after implementing warning labels in Mexico: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

In October 2019, Mexico approved a law to establish that nonalcoholic beverages and packaged foods that exceed a threshold for added calories, sugars, fats, trans fat, or sodium should have an "excess of" warning label. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in the obesity prevalence and obesity costs in Mexico by introducing warning labels, over 5 years, among adults under 60 years of age.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Baseline intakes of beverages and snacks were obtained from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The expected impact of labels on caloric intake was obtained from an experimental study, with a 10.5% caloric reduction for beverages and 3.0% caloric reduction for snacks. The caloric reduction was introduced into a dynamic model to estimate weight change. The model output was then used to estimate the expected changes in the prevalence of obesity and overweight. To predict obesity costs, we used the Health Ministry report of the impact of overweight and obesity in Mexico 1999-2023. We estimated a mean caloric reduction of 36.8 kcal/day/person (23.2 kcal/day from beverages and 13.6 kcal/day from snacks). Five years after implementation, this caloric reduction could reduce 1.68 kg and 4.98 percentage points (pp) in obesity (14.7%, with respect to baseline), which translates into a reduction of 1.3 million cases of obesity and a reduction of US$1.8 billion in direct and indirect costs. Our estimate is based on experimental evidence derived from warning labels as proposed in Canada, which include a single label and less restrictive limits to sugar, sodium, and saturated fats. Our estimates depend on various assumptions, such as the transportability of effect estimates from the experimental study to the Mexican population and that other factors that could influence weight and food and beverage consumption remain unchanged. Our results will need to be corroborated by future observational studies through the analysis of changes in sales, consumption, and body weight.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we estimated that warning labels may effectively reduce obesity and obesity-related costs. Mexico is following Chile, Peru, and Uruguay in implementing warning labels to processed foods, but other countries could benefit from this intervention.

Mortality attributable to sugar sweetened beverages consumption in Mexico: an update

BACKGROUND

In 2010, sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) were estimated to cause 12% of all diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and obesity-related cancer deaths in Mexico. Using new risk estimates for SSBs consumption, we aimed to update the fraction of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs, and provide subnational estimates by region, age, and sex.

METHODS

We used an established comparative risk assessment framework. All-cause mortality estimates were calculated from a recent pooled cohort analysis. Age- and sex-specific relative risks for SSBs-disease relationships were obtained from updated meta-analyses. Demographics and nationally representative estimates of SSBs intake were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012; and mortality rates, from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Attributable mortality was calculated by estimating the population attributable fraction of each disease, with uncertainty in data inputs propagated through Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In Mexican adults 20 years and older, 6.9% (95%UI: 5.4-8.5) of all cause-mortality was attributable to SSBs, representing 40,842 excess deaths/year (95%UI: 31,950-50,138). Furthermore, 19% of diabetes, CVD and obesity-related cancer mortality was attributable to SSBs (95%UI: 11.0-26.5), representing 37,000 excess deaths/year (95%UI 21,240-51,045). Of these, 35.6% were diabetes-related (95%UI 16.4-52.0). Proportional burden was highest in the South (22.8%), followed by the Center (18.0%) and North (17.4%). Men aged 45-64-years in the Center region had highest proportional mortality (37.2%), followed by 20-44-year-old men living in the South (35.7%) and both men and women aged 20-44 living in the Center (34.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Utilizing current evidence linking SSBs to cardiometabolic disease and obesity-related cancers, earlier estimates of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs could have been underestimated. Mexico urgently needs stronger policies to reduce SSBs consumption and reduce these burdens.

The Effect of a Priest-Led Intervention on the Choice and Preference of Soda Beverages: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial in Catholic Parishes

BACKGROUND

Latin America ranks among the regions with the highest level of intake of sugary beverages in the world. Innovative strategies to reduce the consumption of sugary drinks are necessary.

PURPOSE

Evaluate the effect of a one-off priest-led intervention on the choice and preference of soda beverages.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic cluster-randomized trial in Catholic parishes, paired by number of attendees, in Chimbote, Peru between March and June of 2017. The priest-led intervention, a short message about the importance of protecting one's health, was delivered during the mass. The primary outcome was the proportion of individuals that choose a bottle of soda instead of a bottle of water immediately after the service. Cluster-level estimates were used to compare primary and secondary outcomes between intervention and control groups utilizing nonparametric tests.

RESULTS

Six parishes were allocated to control and six to the intervention group. The proportion of soda selection at baseline was ~60% in the intervention and control groups, and ranged from 56.3% to 63.8% in Week 1, and from 62.7% to 68.2% in Week 3. The proportion of mass attendees choosing water over soda was better in the priest-led intervention group: 8.2% higher at Week 1 (95% confidence interval 1.7%-14.6%, p = .03), and 6.2% higher at 3 weeks after baseline (p = .15).

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the proof-of-concept that a brief priest-led intervention can decrease sugary drink choice.

CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN24676734. Registered 25 April 2017, https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN24676734.

Prevention of Childhood Obesity: A Position Paper of the Global Federation of International Societies of Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (FISPGHAN)

Global childhood obesity increased more than 8-fold over 40 years, inducing a very large personal, societal, and economic burden. Effects of available treatments are less than satisfactory; therefore, effective prevention is of high priority. In this narrative review, we explore preventive opportunities. The available evidence indicates large benefits of improving nutrition and lifestyle during early life, such as promoting breast-feeding and improving the quality of infant and early childhood feeding. Promoting healthy eating patterns and limiting sugar-containing beverage consumption from early childhood onwards are of great benefit. Regular physical activity and limited sedentary lifestyle and screen time alone have limited effects but are valuable elements in effective multicomponent strategies. The home environment is important, particularly for young children, and can be improved by educating and empowering families. School- and community-based interventions can be effective, such as installing water fountains, improving cafeteria menus, and facilitating regular physical activity. Reducing obesogenic risk factors through societal standards is essential for effective prevention and limiting socioeconomic disparity; these may comprise food, drink, and physical activity standards for day cares and schools, general food quality standards, front-of-pack food labeling, taxation of unhealthy foods, restriction of food advertisements to children, and others. Effective prevention of childhood obesity is not achieved by single interventions but by integrated multicomponent approaches involving multiple stakeholders that address children, families, and societal standards. Pediatricians and their organizations should be proactive in supporting and empowering families to support their children's health, and in promoting societal measures that protect children.

Nutritional Quality of Hidden Food and Beverage Advertising Directed to Children: Extent and Nature of Product Placement in Mexican Television Programs

(1) Background: Nutrient-poor, energy-dense food and beverage (F&B) advertisements influence children’s food preferences, consumption, and purchase requests, contributing to overweight and obesity. Objective: To characterize the nutritional quality of F&B advertised by product placement (PP) in Mexican television programs with the highest audience ratings for children. (2) Methods: A total of 48 h of television programs between December 2016 and January 2017 during the hours with the highest ratings for children were analyzed. Nutritional quality was assessed through the Mexican Ministry of Health (MMH-NPM), the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe (WHO-Europe), and the Pan American Health Organization nutrient profile models (PAHO-NPM). (3) Results: A total of 119 F&B were broadcast, of which more than 60% were unhealthy according to the three nutritional models. Reality shows and movies presented the most PP advertising. The food category most frequently advertised was sugar-sweetened beverages (41.2%). F&B advertised in children’s programs had a higher content of energy, total fat, and saturated fat (p < 0.01). (4) Conclusion: The MMH-NPM was the most permissive and the PAHO-NPM was the strictest for evaluating nutritional quality. Mexico must strengthen the regulation of advertising to protect children from its negative effects on health.

[Lancet Commission on Hypertension Group position statement on the global improvement of accuracy standards for devices that measure blood pressurePosicionamento do Grupo da Lancet Commission on Hypertension sobre a melhoria global dos padrões de acurácia para aparelhos que medem a pressão arterial]

The Lancet Commission on Hypertension identified that a key action to address the worldwide burden of high blood pressure (BP) was to improve the quality of BP measurements by using BP devices that have been validated for accuracy. Currently, there are over 3 000 commercially available BP devices, but many do not have published data on accuracy testing according to established scientific standards. This problem is enabled through weak or absent regulations that allow clearance of devices for commercial use without formal validation. In addition, new BP technologies have emerged (e.g. cuffless sensors) for which there is no scientific consensus regarding BP measurement accuracy standards. Altogether, these issues contribute to the widespread availability of clinic and home BP devices with limited or uncertain accuracy, leading to inappropriate hypertension diagnosis, management and drug treatment on a global scale. The most significant problems relating to the accuracy of BP devices can be resolved by the regulatory requirement for mandatory independent validation of BP devices according to the universally-accepted International Organization for Standardization Standard. This is a primary recommendation for which there is an urgent international need. Other key recommendations are development of validation standards specifically for new BP technologies and online lists of accurate devices that are accessible to consumers and health professionals. Recommendations are aligned with WHO policies on medical devices and universal healthcare. Adherence to recommendations would increase the global availability of accurate BP devices and result in better diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, thus decreasing the worldwide burden from high BP.

Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014-2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model the projected impact of the tax-triggered change in sugar consumption on obesity incidence, through both volume reduction and reformulation. Results showed a reduction of 6.6 million litres of SSBs sold per year. Product reformulation led to a decrease in the average energy density of SSBs by 3.1 kcal/100 ml. This is estimated to have prevented around 40-78 cases of obesity per year between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest projected impact observed in adolescents 10 to <18 years old. The model shows that the implementation of this tax allowed for a 4 to 8 times larger projected impact against obesity than would be achieved though reformulation alone. The main limitation of this study is that the model we used includes data from various sources, which can result in biases-despite our efforts to mitigate them-related to the methodological differences between these sources.

CONCLUSIONS

The tax triggered both a reduction in demand and product reformulation. These, together, can reduce obesity levels among frequent consumers of SSBs. Such taxation is an effective population-wide intervention. Reformulation alone, without the decrease in sales, would have had a far smaller effect on obesity incidence in the Portuguese population.

The economic gradient of obesity in Mexico: Independent predictive roles of absolute and relative wealth by gender

Despite the vast literature on the economic gradient of obesity, no study investigates the independent predictive roles of absolute and relative standards of living using a large nationally representative adult sample. This gap limits our ability to discern 'material' and 'psychosocial' pathways to obesity as well as our understanding of the role played by economic inequality in the growing obesity epidemic. Using a large and nationally representative Mexican dataset, we find that absolute wealth and relative deprivation are independently related to obesity, and that such relationships are patterned by sex. Absolute wealth predicts body mass index as well as abdominal obesity according to an inverted-U shape for both sexes, and more markedly so for females. Relative deprivation predicts higher body mass index for females and higher waist circumference for both sexes, with highly relatively deprived females being 24.29% (95% CI [24.26, 24.31]) more likely to be obese and 34.46% (95% CI [34.40,34.53]) more likely to be abdominal obese, and highly relatively deprived males being 14.91% (95% CI [14.88,14.93] more likely to be abdominal obese. Our results offer a new perspective on the economic gradient of obesity and highlight the potential impact of economic inequality, especially for women. Greater awareness of the independent and sex-specific roles of the absolute and relative facets of economic status is needed to better understand and address the obesity epidemic.