RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre: 50 years' surveillance of influenza, infections, and respiratory conditions

Modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbations during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based repeated cross-sectional study using the Research and Surveillance Centre primary care database

Background

There were substantial reductions in asthma exacerbations during the COVID-19 pandemic for reasons that remain poorly understood. We investigated changes in modifiable risk factors which might help explain the reductions in asthma exacerbations.

Methods

Multilevel generalised linear mixed models were fitted to examine changes in modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbations during 2020-2022, compared to pre-pandemic year (2019), using observational, routine data from general practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. Asthma exacerbations were defined as any of GP recorded: asthma exacerbations, prescriptions of prednisolone, accident and emergency department attendance or hospitalisation for asthma. Modifiable risk factors of interest were ownership of asthma self-management plan, asthma annual review, inhaled-corticosteroid (ICS) prescriptions, influenza vaccinations and respiratory-tract-infections (RTI).

Findings

Compared with 2019 (n = 550,995), in 2020 (n = 565,956) and 2022 (n = 562,167) (p < 0.05): asthma exacerbations declined from 67.1% to 51.9% and 61.1%, the proportion of people who had: asthma exacerbations reduced from 20.4% to 15.1% and 18.5%, asthma self-management plans increased from 28.6% to 37.7% and 55.9%; ICS prescriptions increased from 69.9% to 72.0% and 71.1%; influenza vaccinations increased from 14.2% to 25.4% and 55.3%; current smoking declined from 15.0% to 14.5% and 14.7%; lower-RTI declined from 10.5% to 5.3% and 8.1%; upper-RTI reduced from 10.7% to 5.8% and 7.6%. There was cluster effect of GP practices on asthma exacerbations (p = 0.001). People with asthma were more likely (p < 0.05) to have exacerbations if they had LRTI (seven times(x)), had URTI and ILI (both twice), were current smokers (1.4x), PPV vaccinated (1.3x), seasonal flu vaccinated (1.01x), took ICS (1.3x), had asthma reviews (1.09x). People with asthma were less likely to have exacerbations if they had self-management plan (7%), and were partially (4%) than fully COVID-19 vaccinated.

Interpretation

We have identified changes in modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbation that need to be maintained in the post-pandemic era.

Funding

Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research and Health Data Research UK.

A Profile of Influenza Vaccine Coverage for 2019-2020: Database Study of the English Primary Care Sentinel Cohort

BACKGROUND

Innovation in seasonal influenza vaccine development has resulted in a wider range of formulations becoming available. Understanding vaccine coverage across populations including the timing of administration is important when evaluating vaccine benefits and risks.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to report the representativeness, uptake of influenza vaccines, different formulations of influenza vaccines, and timing of administration within the English Primary Care Sentinel Cohort (PCSC).

METHODS

We used the PCSC of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. We included patients of all ages registered with PCSC member general practices, reporting influenza vaccine coverage between September 1, 2019, and January 29, 2020. We identified influenza vaccination recipients and characterized them by age, clinical risk groups, and vaccine type. We reported the date of influenza vaccination within the PCSC by International Standard Organization (ISO) week. The representativeness of the PCSC population was compared with population data provided by the Office for National Statistics. PCSC influenza vaccine coverage was compared with published UK Health Security Agency's national data. We used paired t tests to compare populations, reported with 95% CI.

RESULTS

The PCSC comprised 7,010,627 people from 693 general practices. The study population included a greater proportion of people aged 18-49 years (2,982,390/7,010,627, 42.5%; 95% CI 42.5%-42.6%) compared with the Office for National Statistics 2019 midyear population estimates (23,219,730/56,286,961, 41.3%; 95% CI 4.12%-41.3%; P<.001). People who are more deprived were underrepresented and those in the least deprived quintile were overrepresented. Within the study population, 24.7% (1,731,062/7,010,627; 95% CI 24.7%-24.7%) of people of all ages received an influenza vaccine compared with 24.2% (14,468,665/59,764,928; 95% CI 24.2%-24.2%; P<.001) in national data. The highest coverage was in people aged ≥65 years (913,695/1,264,700, 72.3%; 95% CI 72.2%-72.3%). The proportion of people in risk groups who received an influenza vaccine was also higher; for example, 69.8% (284,280/407,228; 95% CI 69.7%-70%) of people with diabetes in the PCSC received an influenza vaccine compared with 61.2% (983,727/1,607,996; 95% CI 61.1%-61.3%; P<.001) in national data. In the PCSC, vaccine type and brand information were available for 71.8% (358,365/498,923; 95% CI 71.7%-72%) of people aged 16-64 years and 81.9% (748,312/913,695; 95% CI 81.8%-82%) of people aged ≥65 years, compared with 23.6% (696,880/2,900,000) and 17.8% (1,385,888/7,700,000), respectively, of the same age groups in national data. Vaccination commenced during ISO week 35, continued until ISO week 3, and peaked during ISO week 41. The in-week peak in vaccination administration was on Saturdays.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCSC's sociodemographic profile was similar to the national population and captured more data about risk groups, vaccine brands, and batches. This may reflect higher data quality. Its capabilities included reporting precise dates of administration. The PCSC is suitable for undertaking studies of influenza vaccine coverage.

Postpandemic Sentinel Surveillance of Respiratory Diseases in the Context of the World Health Organization Mosaic Framework: Protocol for a Development and Evaluation Study Involving the English Primary Care Network 2023-2024

BACKGROUND

Prepandemic sentinel surveillance focused on improved management of winter pressures, with influenza-like illness (ILI) being the key clinical indicator. The World Health Organization (WHO) global standards for influenza surveillance include monitoring acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI. The WHO's mosaic framework recommends that the surveillance strategies of countries include the virological monitoring of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential such as influenza. The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioner Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has provided sentinel surveillance since 1967, including virology since 1993.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to describe the RSC's plans for sentinel surveillance in the 2023-2024 season and evaluate these plans against the WHO mosaic framework.

METHODS

Our approach, which includes patient and public involvement, contributes to surveillance objectives across all 3 domains of the mosaic framework. We will generate an ARI phenotype to enable reporting of this indicator in addition to ILI. These data will support UKHSA's sentinel surveillance, including vaccine effectiveness and burden of disease studies. The panel of virology tests analyzed in UKHSA's reference laboratory will remain unchanged, with additional plans for point-of-care testing, pneumococcus testing, and asymptomatic screening. Our sampling framework for serological surveillance will provide greater representativeness and more samples from younger people. We will create a biomedical resource that enables linkage between clinical data held in the RSC and virology data, including sequencing data, held by the UKHSA. We describe the governance framework for the RSC.

RESULTS

We are co-designing our communication about data sharing and sampling, contextualized by the mosaic framework, with national and general practice patient and public involvement groups. We present our ARI digital phenotype and the key data RSC network members are requested to include in computerized medical records. We will share data with the UKHSA to report vaccine effectiveness for COVID-19 and influenza, assess the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus, and perform syndromic surveillance. Virological surveillance will include COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and other common respiratory viruses. We plan to pilot point-of-care testing for group A streptococcus, urine tests for pneumococcus, and asymptomatic testing. We will integrate test requests and results with the laboratory-computerized medical record system. A biomedical resource will enable research linking clinical data to virology data. The legal basis for the RSC's pseudonymized data extract is The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002, and all nonsurveillance uses require research ethics approval.

CONCLUSIONS

The RSC extended its surveillance activities to meet more but not all of the mosaic framework's objectives. We have introduced an ARI indicator. We seek to expand our surveillance scope and could do more around transmissibility and the benefits and risks of nonvaccine therapies.

Robust and sensitive amplicon-based whole-genome sequencing assay of respiratory syncytial virus subtype A and B

Prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is now a global health priority, with a long-acting monoclonal antibody and two RSV vaccines recently licenced for clinical use. Most licenced and candidate interventions target the RSV fusion (RSV-F) protein. New interventions may be associated with the spread of mutations, reducing susceptibility to antibody neutralization in RSV-F. There is a need for ongoing longitudinal global surveillance of circulating RSV strains. To achieve this large-scale genomic surveillance, a reliable, high-throughput RSV sequencing assay is required. Here we report an improved high-throughput RSV whole-genome sequencing (WGS) assay performed directly on clinical samples without additional enrichment, using a 4-primer-pool, short-amplicon PCR-tiling approach that is suitable for short-read sequencing platforms. Using upper respiratory tract (URT) RSV-positive clinical samples obtained from a sentinel network of primary care providers and from hospital patients (29.7% and 70.2%, respectively; n = 1,037), collected over the period 2019 to 2023, this assay had a threshold of approximately 4 × 103 to 8 × 103 copies/mL (RSV-B and RSV-A sub-types, respectively) as the lowest amount of virus needed in the sample to achieve >96% of whole-genome coverage at a high-quality level. Using a Ct value of 31 as an empirical cut-off, the overall assay success rate of obtaining >90% genome coverage at a read depth minimum of 20 was 96.83% for clinical specimens successfully sequenced from a total of 1,071. The RSV WGS approach described in this study has increased sensitivity compared to previous approaches and can be applied to clinical specimens without the requirement for enrichment. The updated approach produces sequences of high quality consistently and cost-effectively, suitable for implementation to underpin national programs for the surveillance of RSV genomic variation.

IMPORTANCE

In this paper, we report an improved high-throughput respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) whole-genome sequencing (WGS) assay performed directly on clinical samples, using a 4-primer-pool, short-amplicon PCR-tiling approach that is suitable for short-read sequencing platforms. The RSV WGS approach described in this study has increased sensitivity compared to previous approaches and can be applied to clinical specimens without the requirement for enrichment. The updated approach produces sequences of high quality consistently and cost-effectively, suitable for implementation to underpin national and global programs for the surveillance of RSV genomic variation. The quality of sequence produced is essential for preparedness for new interventions in monitoring antigenic escape, where a single point mutation might lead to a reduction in antibody binding effectiveness and neutralizing activity, or indeed in the monitoring of retaining susceptibility to neutralization by existing and new interventions.

AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations.

METHODS

Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity.

RESULTS

Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.

Primary and secondary care collaboration in clinical research

More patients are seen in primary care than in any other part of the health system in the UK. Our NHS datasets are the envy of the world and provide us with huge opportunities to support our patients and populations. In this paper, we demonstrate the breadth of primary care research, recruitment and delivery options. We show how research can affect many different aspects of patient care and demonstrate, through the delivery and publication of game-changing research, the ability of recruitment in primary care to answer questions that are relevant to secondary care activity. Indeed, these complex and innovative study designs and their collaborative delivery across the multitude of diseases (acute and chronic) show the strength of primary care. Collaboration across boundaries, specialties and healthcare settings will provide increased opportunities for clinical research development and, most importantly, deliver the highest quality research to support our patients.

Hepatitis A Vaccination Coverage Among People With Chronic Liver Disease in England (HEALD): Protocol for a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis A outbreaks in the United Kingdom are uncommon. Most people develop mild to moderate symptoms that resolve, without sequelae, within months. However, in high-risk groups, including those with underlying chronic liver disease (CLD), hepatitis A infection can be severe, with a higher risk of mortality and morbidity. The Health Security Agency and the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence recommend preexposure hepatitis A vaccination given in 2 doses to people with CLD, regardless of its cause. There are currently no published reports of vaccination coverage for people with CLD in England or internationally.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to describe hepatitis A vaccination coverage in adults with CLD in a UK primary care setting and compare liver disease etiology, sociodemographic characteristics, and comorbidities in people who are and are not exposed to the hepatitis A vaccine.

METHODS

We will conduct a retrospective cohort study with data from the Primary Care Sentinel Cohort of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub database, which is nationally representative of the English population. We will include people aged 18 years and older who have been registered in general practices in the Research and Surveillance Centre network and have a record of CLD between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2022, including those with alcohol-related liver disease, chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, nonalcohol fatty liver disease, Wilson disease, hemochromatosis, and autoimmune hepatitis. We will carefully curate variables using the Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms. We will report the sociodemographic characteristics of those who are vaccinated. These include age, gender, ethnicity, population density, region, socioeconomic status (measured using the index of multiple deprivation), obesity, alcohol consumption, and smoking. Hepatitis A vaccination coverage for 1 and 2 doses will be calculated using an estimate of the CLD population as the denominator. We will analyze the baseline characteristics using descriptive statistics, including measures of dispersion. Pairwise comparisons of case-mix characteristics, comorbidities, and complications will be reported according to vaccination status. A multistate survival model will be fitted to estimate the transition probabilities among four states: (1) diagnosed with CLD, (2) first dose of hepatitis A vaccination, (3) second dose of hepatitis A vaccination, and (4) death. This will identify any potential disparities in how people with CLD get vaccinated.

RESULTS

The Research and Surveillance Centre population comprises over 8 million people. The reported incidence of CLD is 20.7 cases per 100,000. International estimates of hepatitis A vaccine coverage vary between 10% and 50% in this group.

CONCLUSIONS

This study will describe the uptake of the hepatitis A vaccine in people with CLD and report any disparities or differences in the characteristics of the vaccinated population.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/51861.

The roles and challenges of the primary health care systems in epidemic management: a scoping review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

During the early stage of pandemics, primary health care (PHC) is the first point of contact with the health system for people. This study aimed to find the leading roles and challenges of the PHC system in dealing with the outbreak of infectious diseases.

METHODS

The current scoping review was conducted in 2022 using the Arkesy and O'Malley framework. A bibliographic search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases. Following a Google Scholar search, a manual search in some journals, reference checks for articles, and a review of organizational reports, websites, and other sources of information were also conducted. Data were analyzed using the content-analysis method.

FINDINGS

Finally, 65 documents (42 articles and 23 reports, books, and news) were included in the study. Initially, 626 codes were extracted, and 132 final codes were categorized into eight main themes and 44 sub-themes. The main themes for the roles of PHC included: service provision, education and knowledge, surveillance, access, coordination and communication, management and leadership, infrastructure change and rapid preparation, and patient and community management. Regarding the challenges faced by PHC in the epidemic of infectious diseases, 24 key challenges were identified and categorized into four major areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of the present study, there is a need for further studies to formulate and theorize the specific roles of PHC in managing infectious disease epidemics. The results of this study can be utilized by researchers and officials to inform their efforts in addressing this purpose.

The Impact of Point-of-Care Testing for Influenza on Antimicrobial Stewardship (PIAMS) in UK Primary Care: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study

BACKGROUND

Molecular point-of-care testing (POCT) used in primary care can inform whether a patient presenting with an acute respiratory infection has influenza. A confirmed clinical diagnosis, particularly early in the disease, could inform better antimicrobial stewardship. Social distancing and lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic have disturbed previous patterns of influenza infections in 2021. However, data from samples taken in the last quarter of 2022 suggest that influenza represents 36% of sentinel network positive virology, compared with 24% for respiratory syncytial virus. Problems with integration into the clinical workflow is a known barrier to incorporating technology into routine care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to report the impact of POCT for influenza on antimicrobial prescribing in primary care. We will additionally describe severe outcomes of infection (hospitalization and mortality) and how POCT is integrated into primary care workflows.

METHODS

The impact of POCT for influenza on antimicrobial stewardship (PIAMS) in UK primary care is an observational study being conducted between December 2022 and May 2023 and involving 10 practices that contribute data to the English sentinel network. Up to 1000 people who present to participating practices with respiratory symptoms will be swabbed and tested with a rapid molecular POCT analyzer in the practice. Antimicrobial prescribing and other study outcomes will be collected by linking information from the POCT analyzer with data from the patient's computerized medical record. We will collect data on how POCT is incorporated into practice using data flow diagrams, unified modeling language use case diagrams, and Business Process Modeling Notation.

RESULTS

We will present the crude and adjusted odds of antimicrobial prescribing (all antibiotics and antivirals) given a POCT diagnosis of influenza, stratifying by whether individuals have a respiratory or other relevant diagnosis (eg, bronchiectasis). We will also present the rates of hospital referrals and deaths related to influenza infection in PIAMS study practices compared with a set of matched practices in the sentinel network and the rest of the network. We will describe any difference in implementation models in terms of staff involved and workflow.

CONCLUSIONS

This study will generate data on the impact of POCT testing for influenza in primary care as well as help to inform about the feasibility of incorporating POCT into primary care workflows. It will inform the design of future larger studies about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of POCT to improve antimicrobial stewardship and any impact on severe outcomes.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/46938.

Hepatitis B virus infection in general practice across England: An analysis of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre real-world database

OBJECTIVES

We analysed hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening and seropositivity within a network of 419 general practices representative of all regions of England.

METHODS

Information was extracted using pseudonymised registration data. Predictors of HBsAg seropositivity were explored in models that considered age, gender, ethnicity, time at the current practice, practice location and associated deprivation index, and presence of nationally endorsed screen indicators including pregnancy, men who have sex with men (MSM), history of injecting drug use (IDU), close HBV contact or imprisonment, and diagnosis of blood-borne or sexually transmitted infections.

RESULTS

Among 6,975,119 individuals, 192,639 (2.8%) had a screening record, including 3.6- 38.6% of those with a screen indicator, and 8065 (0.12%) had a seropositive record. The odds of seropositivity were highest in London, in the most deprived neighbourhoods, among minority ethnic groups, and in people with screen indicators. Seroprevalence exceeded 1% in people from high prevalence countries, MSM, close HBV contacts, and people with a history of IDU or HIV, HCV, or syphilis diagnosis. Overall, 1989/8065 (24.7%) had a recorded referral to specialist hepatitis care.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, HBV infection is associated with poverty. There are unrealised opportunities to promote access to diagnosis and care for those affected.

Impact of General Practitioner Education on Acceptance of an Adjuvanted Seasonal Influenza Vaccine among Older Adults in England

Seasonal vaccination against influenza and in-pandemic COVID-19 vaccination are top public health priorities; vaccines are the primary means of reducing infections and also controlling pressures on health systems. During the 2018-2019 influenza season, we conducted a study of the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours of 159 general practitioners (GPs) and 189 patients aged ≥65 years in England using a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to document beliefs about seasonal influenza and seasonal influenza vaccine. GPs were surveyed before and after a continuing medical education (CME) module on influenza disease and vaccination with an adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) designed for patients aged ≥65 years, and patients were surveyed before and after a routine visit with a GP who participated in the CME portion of the study. The CME course was associated with significantly increased GP confidence in their ability to address patients' questions and concerns about influenza disease and vaccination (p < 0.001). Patients reported significantly increased confidence in the effectiveness and safety of aTIV after meeting their GP. Overall, 82.2% of the study population were vaccinated against influenza (including 137 patients vaccinated during the GP visit and 15 patients who had been previously vaccinated), a rate higher than the English national average vaccine uptake of 72.0% that season. These findings support the value of GP-patient interactions to foster vaccine acceptance.

Trends in direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) prescribing in English primary care (2014-2019)

BACKGROUND

In England, most prescribing of direct-acting oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation (AF) is in primary care. However, there remain gaps in our understanding of dosage and disparities in use. We aimed to describe trends in direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) prescribing, including dose reduction in people with renal impairment and other criteria, and adherence.

METHODS

Using English primary care sentinel network data from 2014 to 2019, we assessed appropriate DOAC dose adjustment with creatinine clearance (CrCl). Our primary care sentinel cohort was a subset of 722 general practices, with 6.46 million currently registered patients at the time of this study.

RESULTS

Of 6 464 129 people in the cohort, 2.3% were aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of AF, and 30.8% of these were prescribed vitamin K antagonist and 69.1% DOACs. Appropriate DOAC prescribing following CrCl measures improved between 2014 and 2019; dabigatran from 21.3% (95% CI 15.1% to 28.8%) to 48.7% (95% CI 45.0% to 52.4%); rivaroxaban from 22.1% (95% CI 16.7% to 28.4%) to 49.9% (95% CI 48.5% to 53.3%); edoxaban from 10.0% (95% CI 0.3% to 44.5%) in 2016 to 57.6% (95% CI 54.5% to 60.7%) in 2019; apixaban from 30.8% (95% CI 9.1% to 61.4%) in 2015 to 60.5% (95% CI 57.8% to 63.2%) in 2019.Adherence was highest for factor Xa inhibitors, increasing from 50.1% (95% CI 47.7% to 52.4%) in 2014 to 57.8% (95% CI 57.4% to 58.2%) in 2019. Asian and black/mixed ethnicity was associated with non-adherence (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.09) as was male gender (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.22), higher socioeconomic status (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.52 to 1.68), being an ex-smoker (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.19) and hypertension (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.17).

CONCLUSIONS

The volume and quality of DOAC prescribing has increased yearly. Future interventions to augment quality of anticoagulant management should target disparities in adherence.

Representativeness, Vaccination Uptake, and COVID-19 Clinical Outcomes 2020-2021 in the UK Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Network: Cohort Profile Summary

BACKGROUND

The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) is one of Europe's oldest sentinel systems, working with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and its predecessor bodies for 55 years. Its surveillance report now runs twice weekly, supplemented by online observatories. In addition to conducting sentinel surveillance from a nationally representative group of practices, the RSC is now also providing data for syndromic surveillance.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe the cohort profile at the start of the 2021-2022 surveillance season and recent changes to our surveillance practice.

METHODS

The RSC's pseudonymized primary care data, linked to hospital and other data, are held in the Oxford-RCGP Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, a Trusted Research Environment. We describe the RSC's cohort profile as of September 2021, divided into a Primary Care Sentinel Cohort (PCSC)-collecting virological and serological specimens-and a larger group of syndromic surveillance general practices (SSGPs). We report changes to our sampling strategy that brings the RSC into alignment with European Centre for Disease Control guidance and then compare our cohort's sociodemographic characteristics with Office for National Statistics data. We further describe influenza and COVID-19 vaccine coverage for the 2020-2021 season (week 40 of 2020 to week 39 of 2021), with the latter differentiated by vaccine brand. Finally, we report COVID-19-related outcomes in terms of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death.

RESULTS

As a response to COVID-19, the RSC grew from just over 500 PCSC practices in 2019 to 1879 practices in 2021 (PCSC, n=938; SSGP, n=1203). This represents 28.6% of English general practices and 30.59% (17,299,780/56,550,136) of the population. In the reporting period, the PCSC collected >8000 virology and >23,000 serology samples. The RSC population was broadly representative of the national population in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, National Health Service Region, socioeconomic status, obesity, and smoking habit. The RSC captured vaccine coverage data for influenza (n=5.4 million) and COVID-19, reporting dose one (n=11.9 million), two (n=11 million), and three (n=0.4 million) for the latter as well as brand-specific uptake data (AstraZeneca vaccine, n=11.6 million; Pfizer, n=10.8 million; and Moderna, n=0.7 million). The median (IQR) number of COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions was 1181 (559-1559) and 115 (50-174) per week, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The RSC is broadly representative of the national population; its PCSC is geographically representative and its SSGPs are newly supporting UKHSA syndromic surveillance efforts. The network captures vaccine coverage and has expanded from reporting primary care attendances to providing data on onward hospital outcomes and deaths. The challenge remains to increase virological and serological sampling to monitor the effectiveness and waning of all vaccines available in a timely manner.

Mortality in COVID-19 among women on hormone replacement therapy: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Limited recent observational data have suggested that there may be a protective effect of oestrogen on the severity of COVID-19 disease. Our aim was to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) or combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP) use and the likelihood of death in women with COVID-19.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected computerized medical records from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care database. We identified a cohort of 1,863,478 women over 18 years of age from 465 general practices in England. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the association between HRT or COCP use and all-cause mortality among women diagnosed with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 in unadjusted and adjusted models.

RESULTS

There were 5,451 COVID-19 cases within the cohort. HRT was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality in COVID-19 (adjusted OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.94). There were no reported events for all-cause mortality in women prescribed COCPs. This prevented further examination of the impact of COCP.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that HRT prescription within 6 months of a recorded diagnosis of COVID-19 infection was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. Further work is needed in larger cohorts to examine the association of COCP in COVID-19, and to further investigate the hypothesis that oestrogens may contribute a protective effect against COVID-19 severity.

Geriatric Health Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Managing the Health Crisis

COVID-19 pandemic significantly threatens the health and well-being of older adults. Aging-related changes, including multimorbidity, weakened immunity and frailty, may make older people more susceptible to severe infection and place them at higher risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Various quarantine measures have been implemented to control the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, such social distancing has disrupted routine health care practices, such as accessibility of medical services and long-term continuous care services. The medical management of older adults with multimorbidity is significantly afflicted by COVID-19. Older persons with frailty or multiple chronic disease may poorly adapt to the altered health care system, having detrimental consequences on their physical and mental health. COVID-19 pandemic has posed great challenges to the health of older adults. We highlighted the difficulties and obstacles of older adults during this unprecedented time. Also, we provided potential strategies and recommendations for actions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic threats. Certain strategies like community primary health care, medication delivery and home care support are adopted by many health facilities and caregivers, whereas other services such as internet hospital and virtual medical care are promoted to be accessible in many regions. However, guidelines and policies based on high-quality data are still needed for better health promotion of older groups with increasing resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Long term follow up of direct oral anticoagulants and warfarin therapy on stroke, with all-cause mortality as a competing risk, in people with atrial fibrillation: Sentinel network database study

Background

We investigated differences in risk of stroke, with all-cause mortality as a competing risk, in people newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) who were commenced on either direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or warfarin treatment.

Methods and results

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database (a network of 500 English general practices). We compared long term exposure to DOAC (n = 5,168) and warfarin (n = 7,451) in new cases of AF not previously treated with oral anticoagulants. Analyses included: survival analysis, estimating cause specific hazard ratios (CSHR), Fine-Gray analysis for factors affecting cumulative incidence of events occurring over time and a cumulative risk regression with time varying effects.We found no difference in CSHR between stroke 1.08 (0.72–1.63, p = 0.69) and all-cause mortality 0.93 (0.81–1.08, p = 0.37), or between the anticoagulant groups. Fine-Gray analysis produced similar results 1.07 (0.71–1.6 p = 0.75) for stroke and 0.93 (0.8–1.07, p = 0.3) mortality. The cumulative risk of mortality with DOAC was significantly elevated in early follow-up (67 days), with cumulative risk decreasing until 1,537 days and all-cause mortality risk significantly decreased coefficient estimate:: -0.23 (-0.38–0.01, p = 0.001); which persisted over seven years of follow-up.

Conclusions

In this large, contemporary, real world primary care study with longer follow-up, we found no overall difference in the hazard of stroke between warfarin and DOAC treatment for AF. However, there was a significant time-varying effect between anti-coagulant regimen on all-cause mortality, with DOACs showing better survival. This is a key methodological observation for future follow-up studies, and reassuring for patients and health care professionals for longer duration of therapy

Evaluation of the introduction of QOF quality improvement modules in English general practice: early findings from a rapid, qualitative exploration of implementation

Background

A 2018 review of the English primary care pay-for-performance scheme, the Quality and Outcomes Framework, suggested that it should evolve to better support holistic, patient-centred care and leadership for quality improvement (QI). From 2019, as part of the vision of change, financially incentivised QI cycles (initially in prescribing safety and end-of-life care), were introduced into the scheme.

Objectives

To conduct a rapid evaluation of general practice staff attitudes, experiences and plans in relation to the implementation of the first two QI modules. This study was commissioned by NHS England and will inform development of the QI programme.

Methods

Semistructured telephone interviews were conducted with 25 practice managers from a range of practices across England. Interviews were audio recorded with consent and transcribed verbatim. Anonymised data were reflexively thematically analysed using the framework method of analysis to identify common themes across the interviews.

Results

Participants reported broadly favourable views of incentivised QI, suggesting the prescribing safety module was easier to implement than the end-of-life module. Additional staff time needed and challenges of reviewing activities with other practices were reported as concerns. Some highlighted that local flexibility and influence on subject matter may improve the effectiveness of QI. Several questioned the choices of topic, recognising greater need and potential for improving quality of care in other clinical areas.

Conclusion

Practices supported the idea of financial incentivisation of QI, however, it will be important to ensure that focus on QI cycles in specific clinical areas does not have unintended effects. A key issue will be keeping up momentum with the introduction of new modules each year which are time consuming to carry out for time poor General Practitioners (GPs)/practices.

Mortality from angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers in people infected with COVID-19: a cohort study of 3.7 million people

BACKGROUND

Concerns have been raised that angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitors (ACE-I) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) might facilitate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 leading to more severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disease and an increased risk of mortality. We aimed to investigate the association between ACE-I/ARB treatment and risk of death amongst people with COVID-19 in the first 6 months of the pandemic.

METHODS

We identified a cohort of adults diagnosed with either confirmed or probable COVID-19 (from 1 January to 21 June 2020) using computerized medical records from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care database. This comprised 465 general practices in England, United Kingdom with a nationally representative population of 3.7 million people. We constructed mixed-effects logistic regression models to quantify the association between ACE-I/ARBs and all-cause mortality among people with COVID-19, adjusted for sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, concurrent medication, smoking status, practice clustering, and household number.

RESULTS

There were 9,586 COVID-19 cases in the sample and 1,463 (15.3%) died during the study period between 1 January 2020 and 21 June 2020. In adjusted analysis ACE-I and ARBs were not associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-1.21 and OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.67-1.07, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Use of ACE-I/ARB, which are commonly used drugs, did not alter the odds of all-cause mortality amongst people diagnosed with COVID-19. Our findings should inform patient and prescriber decisions concerning continued use of these medications during the pandemic.

Assessing the Clinical and Socioeconomic Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children Aged Under 5 Years in Primary Care: Protocol for a Prospective Cohort Study in England and Report on the Adaptations of the Study to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) commonly causes lower respiratory tract infections and hospitalization in children. In 2019-2020, the Europe-wide RSV ComNet standardized study protocol was developed to measure the clinical and socioeconomic disease burden of RSV infections among children aged <5 years in primary care. RSV has a recognized seasonality in England.

Objective

We aimed to describe (1) the adaptations of the RSV ComNet standardized study protocol for England and (2) the challenges of conducting the study during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

This study was conducted by the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre—the English national primary care sentinel network. We invited all (N=248) general practices within the network that undertook virology sampling to participate in the study by recruiting eligible patients (registered population: n=3,056,583). Children aged <5 years with the following case definition of RSV infection were included in the study: those consulting a health care practitioner in primary care with symptoms meeting the World Health Organization’s definition of acute respiratory illness or influenza-like illness who have laboratory-confirmed RSV infection. The parents/guardians of these cases were asked to complete 2 previously validated questionnaires (14 and 30 days postsampling). A sample size of at least 100 RSV-positive cases is required to estimate the percentage of children that consult in primary care who need hospitalization. Assuming a swab positivity rate of 20% in children aged <5 years, we estimated that 500 swabs are required. We adapted our method for the pandemic by extending sampling planned for winter 2020-2021 to a rolling data collection, allowing verbal consent and introducing home swabbing because of increased web-based consultations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

The preliminary results of the data collection between International Organization for Standardization (ISO) weeks 1-41 in 2021 are described. There was no RSV detected in the winter of 2020-2021 through the study. The first positive RSV swab collected through the sentinel network in England was collected in ISO week 17 and then every week since ISO week 25. In total, 16 (N=248, 6.5%) of the virology-sampling practices volunteered to participate; these were high-sampling practices collecting the majority of eligible swabs across the sentinel network—200 (43.8%) out of 457 swabs, of which 54 (N=200, 27%) were positive for RSV.

Conclusions

Measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic meant there was no circulating RSV last winter; however, RSV has circulated out of season, as detected by the sentinel network. The sentinel network practices have collected 40% (200/500) of the required samples, and 27% (54/200) were RSV positive. We have demonstrated the feasibility of implementing a European-standardized RSV disease burden study protocol in England during a pandemic, and we now need to recruit to this adapted protocol.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/38026

Methodological Issues in Using a Common Data Model of COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake and Important Adverse Events of Interest: Feasibility Study of Data and Connectivity COVID-19 Vaccines Pharmacovigilance in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

The Data and Connectivity COVID-19 Vaccines Pharmacovigilance (DaC-VaP) UK-wide collaboration was created to monitor vaccine uptake and effectiveness and provide pharmacovigilance using routine clinical and administrative data. To monitor these, pooled analyses may be needed. However, variation in terminologies present a barrier as England uses the Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT), while the rest of the United Kingdom uses the Read v2 terminology in primary care. The availability of data sources is not uniform across the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to use the concept mappings in the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) common data model (CDM) to identify common concepts recorded and to report these in a repeated cross-sectional study. We planned to do this for vaccine coverage and 2 adverse events of interest (AEIs), cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) and anaphylaxis. We identified concept mappings to SNOMED CT, Read v2, the World Health Organization's International Classification of Disease Tenth Revision (ICD-10) terminology, and the UK Dictionary of Medicines and Devices (dm+d).

METHODS

Exposures and outcomes of interest to DaC-VaP for pharmacovigilance studies were selected. Mappings of these variables to different terminologies used across the United Kingdom's devolved nations' health services were identified from the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) Automated Terminology Harmonization, Extraction, and Normalization for Analytics (ATHENA) online browser. Lead analysts from each nation then confirmed or added to the mappings identified. These mappings were then used to report AEIs in a common format. We reported rates for windows of 0-2 and 3-28 days postvaccine every 28 days.

RESULTS

We listed the mappings between Read v2, SNOMED CT, ICD-10, and dm+d. For vaccine exposure, we found clear mapping from OMOP to our clinical terminologies, though dm+d had codes not listed by OMOP at the time of searching. We found a list of CVST and anaphylaxis codes. For CVST, we had to use a broader cerebral venous thrombosis conceptual approach to include Read v2. We identified 56 SNOMED CT codes, of which we selected 47 (84%), and 15 Read v2 codes. For anaphylaxis, our refined search identified 60 SNOMED CT codes and 9 Read v2 codes, of which we selected 10 (17%) and 4 (44%), respectively, to include in our repeated cross-sectional studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This approach enables the use of mappings to different terminologies within the OMOP CDM without the need to catalogue an entire database. However, Read v2 has less granular concepts than some terminologies, such as SNOMED CT. Additionally, the OMOP CDM cannot compensate for limitations in the clinical coding system. Neither Read v2 nor ICD-10 is sufficiently granular to enable CVST to be specifically flagged. Hence, any pooled analysis will have to be at the less specific level of cerebrovascular venous thrombosis. Overall, the mappings within this CDM are useful, and our method could be used for rapid collaborations where there are only a limited number of concepts to pool.

Differences in Clinical Presentation With Long COVID After Community and Hospital Infection and Associations With All-Cause Mortality: English Sentinel Network Database Study

BACKGROUND

Most studies of long COVID (symptoms of COVID-19 infection beyond 4 weeks) have focused on people hospitalized in their initial illness. Long COVID is thought to be underrecorded in UK primary care electronic records.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine which symptoms people present to primary care after COVID-19 infection and whether presentation differs in people who were not hospitalized, as well as post-long COVID mortality rates.

METHODS

We used routine data from the nationally representative primary care sentinel cohort of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (N=7,396,702), applying a predefined long COVID phenotype and grouped by whether the index infection occurred in hospital or in the community. We included COVID-19 infection cases from March 1, 2020, to April 1, 2021. We conducted a before-and-after analysis of long COVID symptoms prespecified by the Office of National Statistics, comparing symptoms presented between 1 and 6 months after the index infection matched with the same months 1 year previously. We conducted logistic regression analysis, quoting odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

In total, 5.63% (416,505/7,396,702) and 1.83% (7623/416,505) of the patients had received a coded diagnosis of COVID-19 infection and diagnosis of, or referral for, long COVID, respectively. People with diagnosis or referral of long COVID had higher odds of presenting the prespecified symptoms after versus before COVID-19 infection (OR 2.66, 95% CI 2.46-2.88, for those with index community infection and OR 2.42, 95% CI 2.03-2.89, for those hospitalized). After an index community infection, patients were more likely to present with nonspecific symptoms (OR 3.44, 95% CI 3.00-3.95; P<.001) compared with after a hospital admission (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.56-2.80; P<.001). Mental health sequelae were more strongly associated with index hospital infections (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.64-2.96) than with index community infections (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.21-1.53; P<.001). People presenting to primary care after hospital infection were more likely to be men (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.25-1.64; P<.001), more socioeconomically deprived (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.24-1.63; P<.001), and with higher multimorbidity scores (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.26-1.57; P<.001) than those presenting after an index community infection. All-cause mortality in people with long COVID was associated with increasing age, male sex (OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.34-9.24; P=.01), and higher multimorbidity score (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.34-3.29; P<.001). Vaccination was associated with reduced odds of mortality (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.03-0.35; P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The low percentage of people recorded as having long COVID after COVID-19 infection reflects either low prevalence or underrecording. The characteristics and comorbidities of those presenting with long COVID after a community infection are different from those hospitalized. This study provides insights into the presentation of long COVID in primary care and implications for workload.

Developing a Long COVID Phenotype for Postacute COVID-19 in a National Primary Care Sentinel Cohort: Observational Retrospective Database Analysis

BACKGROUND

Following COVID-19, up to 40% of people have ongoing health problems, referred to as postacute COVID-19 or long COVID (LC). LC varies from a single persisting symptom to a complex multisystem disease. Research has flagged that this condition is underrecorded in primary care records, and seeks to better define its clinical characteristics and management. Phenotypes provide a standard method for case definition and identification from routine data and are usually machine-processable. An LC phenotype can underpin research into this condition.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop a phenotype for LC to inform the epidemiology and future research into this condition. We compared clinical symptoms in people with LC before and after their index infection, recorded from March 1, 2020, to April 1, 2021. We also compared people recorded as having acute infection with those with LC who were hospitalized and those who were not.

METHODS

We used data from the Primary Care Sentinel Cohort (PCSC) of the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database. This network was recruited to be nationally representative of the English population. We developed an LC phenotype using our established 3-step ontological method: (1) ontological step (defining the reasoning process underpinning the phenotype, (2) coding step (exploring what clinical terms are available, and (3) logical extract model (testing performance). We created a version of this phenotype using Protégé in the ontology web language for BioPortal and using PhenoFlow. Next, we used the phenotype to compare people with LC (1) with regard to their symptoms in the year prior to acquiring COVID-19 and (2) with people with acute COVID-19. We also compared hospitalized people with LC with those not hospitalized. We compared sociodemographic details, comorbidities, and Office of National Statistics-defined LC symptoms between groups. We used descriptive statistics and logistic regression.

RESULTS

The long-COVID phenotype differentiated people hospitalized with LC from people who were not and where no index infection was identified. The PCSC (N=7.4 million) includes 428,479 patients with acute COVID-19 diagnosis confirmed by a laboratory test and 10,772 patients with clinically diagnosed COVID-19. A total of 7471 (1.74%, 95% CI 1.70-1.78) people were coded as having LC, 1009 (13.5%, 95% CI 12.7-14.3) had a hospital admission related to acute COVID-19, and 6462 (86.5%, 95% CI 85.7-87.3) were not hospitalized, of whom 2728 (42.2%) had no COVID-19 index date recorded. In addition, 1009 (13.5%, 95% CI 12.73-14.28) people with LC were hospitalized compared to 17,993 (4.5%, 95% CI 4.48-4.61; P<.001) with uncomplicated COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Our LC phenotype enables the identification of individuals with the condition in routine data sets, facilitating their comparison with unaffected people through retrospective research. This phenotype and study protocol to explore its face validity contributes to a better understanding of LC.

National rates and disparities in childhood vaccination and vaccine-preventable disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: English sentinel network retrospective database study

OBJECTIVES

To describe rates and variation in uptake of pneumococcal and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccines in children and associated change in vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) across the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Retrospective database study of all children aged <19 registered with a general practice in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre English national sentinel surveillance network between 2 November 2015 and 18 July 2021.

RESULTS

Coverage of booster dose of pneumococcal vaccine decreased from 94.5% (95% CI 94.3% to 94.7%) at its height on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) week 47 (2020) to 93.6% (95% CI 93.4% to 93.8%) by the end of the study. Coverage of second dose of MMR decreased from 85.0% (95% CI 84.7% to 85.3%) at its height on ISO week 37 (2020) to 84.1% (95% CI 83.8% to 84.4%) by the end of the study. The break point in trends for MMR was at ISO week 34 (2020) (95% CI weeks 32-37 (2020)), while for pneumococcal vaccine the break point was later at ISO week 3 (2021) (95% CI week 53 (2020) to week 8 (2021)). Vaccination coverage for children of white ethnicity was less likely to decrease than other ethnicities. Rates of consultation for VPDs fell and remained low since August 2020.

CONCLUSION

Childhood vaccination rates started to fall ahead of the onset of the second wave; this fall is accentuating ethnic, socioeconomic and geographical disparities in vaccine uptake and risks widening health disparities. Social distancing and school closures may have contributed to lower rates of associated VPDs, but there may be increased risk as these measures are removed.

National influenza surveillance systems in five European countries: a qualitative comparative framework based on WHO guidance

Background

Influenza surveillance systems vary widely between countries and there is no framework to evaluate national surveillance systems in terms of data generation and dissemination. This study aimed to develop and test a comparative framework for European influenza surveillance.

Methods

Surveillance systems were evaluated qualitatively in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) by a panel of influenza experts and researchers from each country. Seven surveillance sub-systems were defined: non-medically attended community surveillance, virological surveillance, community surveillance, outbreak surveillance, primary care surveillance, hospital surveillance, mortality surveillance). These covered a total of 19 comparable outcomes of increasing severity, ranging from non-medically attended cases to deaths, which were evaluated using 5 comparison criteria based on WHO guidance (granularity, timing, representativeness, sampling strategy, communication) to produce a framework to compare the five countries.

Results

France and the United Kingdom showed the widest range of surveillance sub-systems, particularly for hospital surveillance, followed by Germany, Spain, and Italy. In all countries, virological, primary care and hospital surveillance were well developed, but non-medically attended events, influenza cases in the community, outbreaks in closed settings and mortality estimates were not consistently reported or published. The framework also allowed the comparison of variations in data granularity, timing, representativeness, sampling strategy, and communication between countries. For data granularity, breakdown per risk condition were available in France and Spain, but not in the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. For data communication, there were disparities in the timeliness and accessibility of surveillance data.

Conclusions

This new framework can be used to compare influenza surveillance systems qualitatively between countries to allow the identification of structural differences as well as to evaluate adherence to WHO guidance. The framework may be adapted for other infectious respiratory diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13433-0.

LOng COvid Multidisciplinary consortium Optimising Treatments and servIces acrOss the NHS (LOCOMOTION): protocol for a mixed-methods study in the UK

INTRODUCTION

Long COVID, a new condition whose origins and natural history are not yet fully established, currently affects 1.5 million people in the UK. Most do not have access to specialist long COVID services. We seek to optimise long COVID care both within and outside specialist clinics, including improving access, reducing inequalities, helping self-management and providing guidance and decision support for primary care. We aim to establish a 'gold standard' of care by systematically analysing current practices, iteratively improving pathways and systems of care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This mixed-methods, multisite study is informed by the principles of applied health services research, quality improvement, co-design, outcome measurement and learning health systems. It was developed in close partnership with patients (whose stated priorities are prompt clinical assessment; evidence-based advice and treatment and help with returning to work and other roles) and with front-line clinicians. Workstreams and tasks to optimise assessment, treatment and monitoring are based in three contrasting settings: workstream 1 (qualitative research, up to 100 participants), specialist management in 10 long COVID clinics across the UK, via a quality improvement collaborative, experience-based co-design and targeted efforts to reduce inequalities of access, return to work and peer support; workstream 2 (quantitative research, up to 5000 participants), patient self-management at home, technology-supported monitoring and validation of condition-specific outcome measures and workstream 3 (quantitative research, up to 5000 participants), generalist management in primary care, harnessing electronic record data to study population phenotypes and develop evidence-based decision support, referral pathways and analysis of costs. Study governance includes an active patient advisory group.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

LOng COvid Multidisciplinary consortium Optimising Treatments and servIces acrOss the NHS study is sponsored by the University of Leeds and approved by Yorkshire & The Humber-Bradford Leeds Research Ethics Committee (ref: 21/YH/0276). Participants will provide informed consent. Dissemination plans include academic and lay publications, and partnerships with national and regional policymakers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05057260, ISRCTN15022307.

Observational study of mental health presentations across healthcare setting during the first 9 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented impact on the day-to-day lives of people, with several features potentially adversely affecting mental health. There is growing evidence of the size of the impact of COVID-19 on mental health, but much of this is from ongoing population surveys using validated mental health scores.

Objective

This study investigated the impact of the pandemic and control measures on mental health conditions presenting to a spectrum of national health care services monitored using real-time syndromic surveillance in England.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational descriptive study of mental health presentations (those calling the national medical helpline, National Health Service [NHS] 111; consulting general practitioners [GPs] in and out-of-hours; calling ambulance services; and attending emergency departments) from January 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020. Estimates for the impact of lockdown measures were provided using an interrupted time series analysis.

Results

Mental health presentations showed a marked decrease during the early stages of the pandemic. Postlockdown, attendances for mental health conditions reached higher than prepandemic levels across most systems—a rise of 10% compared to that expected for NHS 111 and 21% for GP out-of-hours service—while the number of consultations to GP in-hours service was 13% lower compared to the same time previous year. Increases were observed in calls to NHS 111 for sleep problems.

Conclusions

These analyses showed marked changes in the health care attendances and prescribing for common mental health conditions across a spectrum of health care provision, with some of these changes persisting. The reasons for such changes are likely to be complex and multifactorial. The impact of the pandemic on mental health may not be fully understood for some time, and therefore, these syndromic indicators should continue to be monitored.

Characterising and monitoring preconception health in England: a review of national population-level indicators and core data sources

Initiatives to optimise preconception health are emerging following growing recognition that this may improve the health and well-being of women and men of reproductive age and optimise health in their children. To inform and evaluate such initiatives, guidance is required on indicators that describe and monitor population-level preconception health. We searched relevant databases and websites (March 2021) to identify national and international preconception guidelines, recommendations and policy reports. These were reviewed to identify preconception indicators. Indicators were aligned with a measure describing the prevalence of the indicator as recorded in national population-based data sources in England. From 22 documents reviewed, we identified 66 indicators across 12 domains. Domains included wider (social/economic) determinants of health; health care; reproductive health and family planning; health behaviours; environmental exposures; cervical screening; immunisation and infections; mental health, physical health; medication and genetic risk. Sixty-five of the 66 indicators were reported in at least one national routine health data set, survey or cohort study. A measure of preconception health assessment and care was not identified in any current national data source. Perspectives from three (healthcare) professionals described how indicator assessment and monitoring may influence patient care and inform awareness campaign development. This review forms the foundation for developing a national surveillance system for preconception health in England. The identified indicators can be assessed using national data sources to determine the population's preconception needs, improve patient care, inform and evaluate new campaigns and interventions and enhance accountability from responsible agencies to improve preconception health.

Investigating the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines: protocol for an observational study using linked UK national data

INTRODUCTION

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in December 2019, has caused millions of deaths and severe illness worldwide. Numerous vaccines are currently under development of which a few have now been authorised for population-level administration by several countries. As of 20 September 2021, over 48 million people have received their first vaccine dose and over 44 million people have received their second vaccine dose across the UK. We aim to assess the uptake rates, effectiveness, and safety of all currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the UK.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use prospective cohort study designs to assess vaccine uptake, effectiveness and safety against clinical outcomes and deaths. Test-negative case-control study design will be used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Self-controlled case series and retrospective cohort study designs will be carried out to assess vaccine safety against mild-to-moderate and severe adverse events, respectively. Individual-level pseudonymised data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory test and death records will be linked and analysed in secure research environments in each UK nation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models will be carried out to estimate vaccine uptake levels in relation to various population characteristics. VE estimates against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection will be generated using a generalised additive logistic model. Time-dependent Cox models will be used to estimate the VE against clinical outcomes and deaths. The safety of the vaccines will be assessed using logistic regression models with an offset for the length of the risk period. Where possible, data will be meta-analysed across the UK nations.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We obtained approvals from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02 (12/SS/0201), the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage independent Information Governance Review Panel project number 0911. Concerning English data, University of Oxford is compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation and the National Health Service (NHS) Digital Data Security and Protection Policy. This is an approved study (Integrated Research Application ID 301740, Health Research Authority (HRA) Research Ethics Committee 21/HRA/2786). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub meets NHS Digital's Data Security and Protection Toolkit requirements. In Northern Ireland, the project was approved by the Honest Broker Governance Board, project number 0064. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and immune response among individuals in clinical risk groups

Background COVID-19 vaccines approved in the UK are highly effective in general population cohorts, however, data on effectiveness amongst individuals with clinical conditions that place them at increased risk of severe disease are limited.

Methods We used GP electronic health record data, sentinel virology swabbing and antibody testing within a cohort of 712 general practices across England to estimate vaccine antibody response and vaccine effectiveness against medically attended COVID-19 amongst individuals in clinical risk groups using cohort and test-negative case control designs.

Findings There was no reduction in S-antibody positivity in most clinical risk groups, however reduced S-antibody positivity and response was significant in the immunosuppressed group. Reduced vaccine effectiveness against clinical disease was also noted in the immunosuppressed group; after a second dose, effectiveness was moderate (Pfizer: 59.6%, 95%CI 18.0–80.1%; AstraZeneca 60.0%, 95%CI -63.6–90.2%).

Interpretation In most clinical risk groups, immune response to primary vaccination was maintained and high levels of vaccine effectiveness were seen. Reduced antibody response and vaccine effectiveness were seen after 1 dose of vaccine amongst a broad immunosuppressed group, and second dose vaccine effectiveness was moderate. These findings support maximising coverage in immunosuppressed individuals and the policy of prioritisation of this group for third doses.

Investigating the links between diagnostic uncertainty, emotional exhaustion, and turnover intention in General Practitioners working in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

General Practitioners (GPs) report high levels of burnout, job dissatisfaction, and turnover intention. The complexity of presenting problems to general practice makes diagnostic uncertainty a common occurrence that has been linked to burnout. The interrelationship between diagnostic uncertainty with other factors such as burnout, job satisfaction and turnover intention have not been previously examined.

OBJECTIVES

To examine associations between diagnostic uncertainty, emotional exhaustion (EE), depersonalization (DP), job satisfaction, and turnover intention in GPs.

METHODS

Seventy general practices in England were randomly selected through the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP-RSC). A total of 348 GPs within 67 these practices completed a 10-item online questionnaire which included questions on GP characteristics, work-life balance, job satisfaction, sickness presenteeism, diagnostic uncertainty, turnover intention as well as EE and DP. Associations between diagnostic uncertainty and each of EE, DP, job satisfaction, and turnover intention were evaluated in multivariate mixed-effect ordinal logistic regressions whilst adjusting for covariates, to account for the correlation in the three outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

Almost one-third of GPs (n = 101; 29%) reported experiencing >10% of diagnostic uncertainty in their day-to-day practice over the past year. GPs reporting greater diagnostic uncertainty had higher levels of EE [OR = 3.90; 95% CI = (2.54, 5.99)], job dissatisfaction [OR = 2.01; 95% CI = (1.30, 3.13)] and turnover intention [OR = 4.51; 95% CI = (2.86, 7.11)]. GPs with no sickness presenteeism had lower levels of EE [OR = 0.53; 95% CI = (0.35, 0.82)], job dissatisfaction [OR = 0.56; 95% CI = (0.35, 0.88)], and turnover intention [OR = 0.61; 95% CI = (0.41, 0.91)].

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic uncertainty may not only negatively impact on the wellbeing of GPs, but could also have adverse implications on workforce retention in primary care.

Dashboards to reduce inappropriate prescribing of metformin and aspirin: A quality assurance programme in a primary care sentinel network

AIMS

To pilot two dashboards to monitor prescribing of metformin and aspirin according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 'Do-Not-Do' recommendations.

METHODS

This quality assurance programme was conducted in twelve general practices of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network. We developed dashboards to flag inappropriate prescribing of metformin and aspirin to people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In Phase 1, six practices (Group A) received a dashboard flagging suboptimal metformin prescriptions in people with reduced renal function. The other six practices (Group B) were controls. In Phase 2, Group B were provided a dashboard to flag inappropriate aspirin prescribing and Group A were controls. We used logistic regression to explore associations between dashboard exposure and inappropriate prescribing.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 5644 individuals (Group A, n = 2656; Group B, n = 2988). Half (51.6%, n = 2991) were prescribed metformin of which 15 (0.5%) were inappropriate (Group A, n = 10; Group B, n = 5). A fifth (17.6%, n = 986) were prescribed aspirin of which 828 (84.0%) were inappropriate. During Phase 1, metformin was stopped in 50% (n = 5) of people in Group A, compared with 20% (n = 1) in the control group (Group B); in Phase 2, the odds ratio of inappropriate aspirin prescribing was significantly lower in practices that received the dashboard versus control (0.44, 95%CI 0.27-0.72).

CONCLUSIONS

It was feasible to use a dashboard to flag inappropriate prescribing. Whilst underpowered to report a change in metformin, we demonstrated a reduction in inappropriate aspirin prescribing.

Combining Image Features and Patient Metadata to Enhance Transfer Learning

In this work, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art deep neural networks in classification tasks when using only image features, to when these are combined with patient metadata. We utilise transfer learning from networks pretrained on ImageNet to extract image features from the ISIC HAM10000 dataset prior to classification. Using several classification performance metrics, we evaluate the effects of including metadata with the image features. Furthermore, we repeat our experiments with data augmentation. Our results show an overall enhancement in performance of each network as assessed by all metrics, only noting degradation in a vgg16 architecture. Our results indicate that this performance enhancement may be a general property of deep networks and should be explored in other areas. Moreover, these improvements come at a negligible additional cost in computation time, and therefore are a practical method for other applications.

Management of burnout among the staff of primary care centres in Spain during the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

The provision of healthcare during the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus represented a challenge for the management of the resources in the primary care centres. We proposed assessing burnout among the staff of those centres and identifying factors that contributed to its appearance and those that limited it.

METHODS

An observational study which, by means of anonymous questionnaires, collected information about: (i) demographic variables; (ii) the characteristics of each position; (iii) the measures implemented by the medical decision-makers in order to provide care during the pandemic; and (iv) the Burnout Clinical Subtype Questionnaire (BCSQ-36). We performed a descriptive analysis of the burnout mentioned by the staff, and, by means of a multivariate analysis, we identified the factors which influenced it. Using logit models, we analysed whether receiving specific training in COVID-19, feeling involved in decision-making processes, and/or working within different healthcare systems had effects on the development of burnout.

RESULTS

We analysed the replies of 252 employees of primary care centres in Spain with an average age of 45 (SD = 15.7) and 22 (SD = 11.4) years of experience. 68% of the participants (n = 173) indicated burnout of the frenetic subtype. 79% (n = 200) of the employees had high scores in at least one burnout subtype, and 62% (n = 156) in at least two. Women older than 45 had a lower probability of suffering burnout. Receiving specific training (OR = 0.28; CI95%: 0.11-0.73) and feeling involved in decision-making (OR = 0.32; CI95%:0.15-0.70) each reduced the probability of developing burnout. Working in a different department increased the likelihood of developing burnout of at least one clinical subtype (OR = 2.85; CI95%: 1.38-5.86).

CONCLUSIONS

The staff in primary care centres have developed high levels of burnout. Participation in decision-making and receiving specific training are revealed as factors that protect against the development of burnout. The measures taken to contain the adverse effects of a heavy workload appear to be insufficient. Certain factors that were not observed, but which are related to decisions taken by the healthcare management, appear to have had an effect on the development of some burnout subtypes.

Fast decliner phenotype of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): applying machine learning for predicting lung function loss

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous group of lung conditions challenging to diagnose and treat. Identification of phenotypes of patients with lung function loss may allow early intervention and improve disease management. We characterised patients with the ‘fast decliner’ phenotype, determined its reproducibility and predicted lung function decline after COPD diagnosis.

Methods

A prospective 4 years observational study that applies machine learning tools to identify COPD phenotypes among 13 260 patients from the UK Royal College of General Practitioners and Surveillance Centre database. The phenotypes were identified prior to diagnosis (training data set), and their reproducibility was assessed after COPD diagnosis (validation data set).

Results

Three COPD phenotypes were identified, the most common of which was the ‘fast decliner’—characterised by patients of younger age with the lowest number of COPD exacerbations and better lung function—yet a fast decline in lung function with increasing number of exacerbations. The other two phenotypes were characterised by (a) patients with the highest prevalence of COPD severity and (b) patients of older age, mostly men and the highest prevalence of diabetes, cardiovascular comorbidities and hypertension. These phenotypes were reproduced in the validation data set with 80% accuracy. Gender, COPD severity and exacerbations were the most important risk factors for lung function decline in the most common phenotype.

Conclusions

In this study, three COPD phenotypes were identified prior to patients being diagnosed with COPD. The reproducibility of those phenotypes in a blind data set following COPD diagnosis suggests their generalisability among different populations.

Making Use of Comparable Health Data to Improve Quality of Care and Outcomes in Diabetes: The EUBIROD Review of Diabetes Registries and Data Sources in Europe

Background

Registries and data sources contain information that can be used on an ongoing basis to improve quality of care and outcomes of people with diabetes. As a specific task of the EU Bridge Health project, we carried out a survey of diabetes-related data sources in Europe.

Objectives

We aimed to report on the organization of different sources of diabetes information, including their governance, information infrastructure and dissemination strategies for quality control, service planning, public health, policy and research.

Methods

Survey using a structured questionnaire to collect targeted data from a network of collaborating institutions managing registries and data sources in 17 countries in the year 2017.

Results

The 18 data sources participating in the study were most frequently academic centres (44.4%), national (72.2%), targeting all types of diabetes (61.1%) covering no more than 10% of the target population (44.4%). Although population-based in over a quarter of cases (27.8%), sources relied predominantly on provider-based datasets (38.5%), fewer using administrative data (16.6%). Data collection was continuous in the majority of cases (61.1%), but 50% could not perform data linkage. Public reports were more frequent (72.2%) as well as quality reports (77.8%), but one third did not provide feedback to policy and only half published ten or more peer reviewed papers during the last 5 years.

Conclusions

The heterogeneous implementation of diabetes registries and data sources hampers the comparability of quality and outcomes across Europe. Best practices exist but need to be shared more effectively to accelerate progress and deliver equitable results for people with diabetes.

Adverse events of interest following influenza vaccination, a comparison of cell culture-based with egg-based alternatives: English sentinel network annual report paper 2019/20

Background

The cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVc) is now offered as an alternative to egg-based quadrivalent (QIVe) and adjuvanted trivalent (aTIV) influenza vaccines in the UK. While post-licensure studies show non-inferiority of cell-based vaccines, it is not known how its safety profile compares to other types of vaccines in real-world use.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using computerised medical records from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network database. We used a self-controlled case series design and calculated the relative incidence (RI) of adverse events of interest (AEIs) over different risk periods. We then compared the RIs of AEIs within seven days of vaccination overall and between QIVc and QIVe in the 18–64 years age group, and between QIVc and aTIV in the ≥65 years age group.

Findings

The majority of AEIs occurred within seven days of vaccination, and a seasonal effect was observed. Using QIVc as the reference group, QIVe showed similar incidence of AEIs whereas live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) and aTIV had lower incidence of AEIs. In the stratified analyses, QIVe and aTIV were associated with a 16% lower incidence of AEIs in the seven days post-vaccination in both the 18–64 years and ≥65 years age groups.

Interpretation

Routine sentinel network data allow comparisons of safety profiles of equally suitable seasonal influenza vaccines. The higher incidence of AEIs associated with QIVc suggest monitoring of several seasons would allow robust comparisons to be made.

Funding

Public Health England.

Uptake and impact of vaccinating primary school children against influenza: Experiences in the fourth season of the live attenuated influenza vaccination programme, England, 2016/2017

Background

In the 2016/2017 influenza season, England was in its fourth season of the roll‐out of a live‐attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) targeted at healthy children aged two to less than 17 years. For the first time, all healthy children aged 2 to 8 years were offered LAIV at national level in 2016/2017. Since the commencement of the programme in 2013/2014, a series of geographically discrete pilot areas have been in place where quadrivalent LAIV was also offered to all school age children. In 2016/2017, these were children aged 8 to 11 years, other than those targeted by the national programme.

Methods

We evaluated the overall and indirect impact of vaccinating primary school age children, on the population of England, by measuring vaccine uptake levels and comparing cumulative disease incidence through various influenza surveillance schemes, in targeted and non‐targeted age groups in pilot and non‐pilot areas in 2016/2017.

Results

Our findings indicate that cumulative primary care influenza‐like consultations, primary and secondary care swab positivity, influenza confirmed hospitalisations and emergency department attendances in pilot areas were overall lower than those observed in non‐pilot areas; however, significant differences were not always observed in both targeted and non‐targeted age groups. Excess mortality was higher in pilot areas compared with non‐pilot areas.

Conclusions

These results are similar to earlier seasons of the programme indicating the importance and continuing support of vaccinating all primary school children with LAIV to reduce influenza related illness across the population, although further work is needed to understand the differences in excess mortality.

Investigating regional variation of respiratory infections in a general practice syndromic surveillance system

BACKGROUND

Established surveillance systems can follow trends in community disease and illness over many years. However, within England there are known regional differences in healthcare utilisation, which can affect interpretation of trends. Here, we explore regional differences for a range of respiratory conditions using general practitioner (GP) consultation data.

METHODS

Daily data for respiratory conditions were extracted from a national GP surveillance system. Average daily GP consultation rates per 100 000 registered patient population were calculated by each region of England and for each study year (2013-17). Consultation rates and incidence rate ratios were also calculated for each condition by deprivation quintile and by rural, urban, and conurbation groups.

RESULTS

Upper and lower respiratory tract infections and asthma were higher in the North and the Midlands than in London and the South, were highest in the most deprived groups and tended to be higher in more urban areas. Influenza-like illness was highest in the least deprived and rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

There are consistent differences in GP consultation rates across the English regions. This work has improved our understanding and interpretation of GP surveillance data at regional level and will guide more accurate public health messages.

The effect of electronic audits and feedback in primary care and factors that contribute to their effectiveness: a systematic review

PURPOSE

The aim of this systematic review was (i) to assess whether electronic audit and feedback (A&F) is effective in primary care and (ii) to evaluate important features concerning content and delivery of the feedback in primary care, including the use of benchmarks, the frequency of feedback, the cognitive load of feedback and the evidence-based aspects of the feedback.

DATA SOURCES

The MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and CENTRAL databases were searched for articles published since 2010 by replicating the search strategy used in the last Cochrane review on A&F.

STUDY SELECTION

Two independent reviewers assessed the records for their eligibility, performed the data extraction and evaluated the risk of bias. Our search resulted in 8744 records, including the 140 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the last Cochrane Review. The full texts of 431 articles were assessed to determine their eligibility. Finally, 29 articles were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent reviewers extracted standard data, data on the effectiveness and outcomes of the interventions, data on the kind of electronic feedback (static versus interactive) and data on the aforementioned feedback features.

RESULTS OF DATA SYNTHESIS

Twenty-two studies (76%) showed that electronic A&F was effective. All interventions targeting medication safety, preventive medicine, cholesterol management and depression showed an effect. Approximately 70% of the included studies used benchmarks and high-quality evidence in the content of the feedback. In almost half of the studies, the cognitive load of feedback was not reported. Due to high heterogeneity in the results, no meta-analysis was performed.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review included 29 articles examining electronic A&F interventions in primary care, and 76% of the interventions were effective. Our findings suggest electronic A&F is effective in primary care for different conditions such as medication safety and preventive medicine. Some of the benefits of electronic A&F include its scalability and the potential to be cost effective. The use of benchmarks as comparators and feedback based on high-quality evidence are widely used and important features of electronic feedback in primary care. However, other important features such as the cognitive load of feedback and the frequency of feedback provision are poorly described in the design of many electronic A&F intervention, indicating that a better description or implementation of these features is needed. Developing a framework or methodology for automated A&F interventions in primary care could be useful for future research.

PRINCIPLE trial demonstrates scope for in-pandemic improvement in primary care antibiotic stewardship: a retrospective sentinel network cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Platform Randomised trial of INterventions against COVID-19 In older peoPLE (PRINCIPLE) has provided in-pandemic evidence that azithromycin and doxycycline were not beneficial in the early primary care management of COVID-19.

AIM

To explore the extent of azithromycin and doxycycline in-pandemic use, and the scope for trial findings impacting on practice.

DESIGN & SETTING

Crude rates of prescribing and respiratory tract infections (RTI) in 2020 were compared with 2019, using the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC).

METHOD

A negative binomial model was used to compare azithromycin and doxycycline lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), and influenza-like-illness (ILI) in 2020 with 2019; reporting incident rate ratios (IRR) between years, and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Azithromycin prescriptions increased 7% in 2020 compared with 2019, whereas doxycycline decreased by 7%. Concurrently, LRTI and URTI incidence fell by over half (58.3% and 54.4%, respectively) while ILI rose slightly (6.4%). The overall percentage of RTI prescribed azithromycin rose from 0.51% in 2019 to 0.72% in 2020 (risk difference of 0.214% [95% CI = 0.211 to 0.217]); doxycycline rose from 11.86% in 2019 to 15.79% in 2020 (risk difference: 3.93% [95% CI = 3.73 to 4.14]). The adjusted IRR showed azithromycin prescribing was 22% higher in 2020 (IRR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.26, P<0.0001), for every unit rise in confirmed COVID-19 there was an associated 3% rise in prescription (IRR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.03, P<0.0001); whereas these measures were static for doxycycline.

CONCLUSION

PRINCIPLE demonstrates scope for improved antimicrobial stewardship during a pandemic.

The cardiovascular phenotype of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): Applying machine learning to the prediction of cardiovascular comorbidities

BACKGROUND

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous group of lung conditions that are challenging to diagnose and treat. As the presence of comorbidities often exacerbates this scenario, the characterization of patients with COPD and cardiovascular comorbidities may allow early intervention and improve disease management and care.

METHODS

We analysed a 4-year observational cohort of 6883 UK patients who were ultimately diagnosed with COPD and at least one cardiovascular comorbidity. The cohort was extracted from the UK Royal College of General Practitioners and Surveillance Centre database. The COPD phenotypes were identified prior to diagnosis and their reproducibility was assessed following COPD diagnosis. We then developed four classifiers for predicting cardiovascular comorbidities.

RESULTS

Three subtypes of the COPD cardiovascular phenotype were identified prior to diagnosis. Phenotype A was characterised by a higher prevalence of severe COPD, emphysema, hypertension. Phenotype B was characterised by a larger male majority, a lower prevalence of hypertension, the highest prevalence of the other cardiovascular comorbidities, and diabetes. Finally, phenotype C was characterised by universal hypertension, a higher prevalence of mild COPD and the low prevalence of COPD exacerbations. These phenotypes were reproduced after diagnosis with 92% accuracy. The random forest model was highly accurate for predicting hypertension while ruling out less prevalent comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified three subtypes of the COPD cardiovascular phenotype that may generalize to other populations. Among the four models tested, the random forest classifier was the most accurate at predicting cardiovascular comorbidities in COPD patients with the cardiovascular phenotype.

COVI-Prim survey: Challenges for Austrian and German general practitioners during initial phase of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents a significant challenge to health care systems around the world. A well-functioning primary care system is crucial in epidemic situations as it plays an important role in the development of a system-wide response.

METHODS

2,187 Austrian and German GPs answered an internet survey on preparedness, testing, staff protection, perception of risk, self-confidence, a decrease in the number of patient contacts, and efforts to control the spread of the virus in the practice during the early phase of the COVID-pandemic (3rd to 30th April).

RESULTS

The completion rate of the questionnaire was high (90.9%). GPs gave low ratings to their preparedness for a pandemic, testing of suspected cases and efforts to protect staff. The provision of information to GPs and the perception of risk were rated as moderate. On the other hand, the participants rated their self-confidence, a decrease in patient contacts and their efforts to control the spread of the disease highly.

CONCLUSION

Primary care is an important resource for dealing with a pandemic like COVID-19. The workforce is confident and willing to take an active role, but needs to be provided with the appropriate surrounding conditions. This will require that certain conditions are met.

REGISTRATION

Trial registration at the German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00021231.

The effect of automated audit and feedback on data completeness in the electronic health record of the general physician: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background

The electronic health record (EHR) of the general physician (GP) is an important tool that can be used to assess and improve the quality of healthcare. However, there are some problems when (re) using the data gathered in the EHR for quality assessments. One problem is the lack of data completeness in the EHR. Audit and feedback (A&F) is a well-known quality intervention that can improve the quality of healthcare. We hypothesize that an automated A&F intervention can be adapted to improve the data completeness of the EHR of the GP, more specifically, the number of correctly registered diagnoses of type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease.

Methods

This study is a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial with an intervention at the level of GP practice. The intervention consists of an audit and extended electronically delivered feedback with multiple components that will be delivered 4 times electronically to general practices over 12 months. The data will be analyzed on an aggregated level (per GP practice). The primary outcome is the percentage of correctly registered diagnoses of type 2 diabetes. The key secondary outcome is the registration of chronic kidney disease. Exploratory secondary outcomes are the registration of heart failure, biometric data and lifestyle habits, and the evolution of 4 different EHR-extractable quality indicators.

Discussion

This cluster randomized controlled trial intends to primarily improve the registration of type 2 diabetes in the EHR of the GP and to secondarily improve the registration of chronic kidney disease. In addition, the registration of heart failure, lifestyle parameters, and biometric data in the EHR of the GP are explored together with 4 EHR-extractable quality indicators. By doing so, this study aims to improve the data completeness of the EHR, paving the way for future quality assessments.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04388228. Registered on May 14, 2020.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05259-9.

Using Point of Care Testing to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness in the English primary care sentinel surveillance network

Introduction

Rapid Point of Care Testing (POCT) for influenza could be used to provide information on influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) as well as influencing clinical decision-making in primary care.

Methods

We undertook a test negative case control study to estimate the overall and age-specific (6 months-17 years, 18–64 years, ≥65 years old) IVE against medically attended POCT-confirmed influenza. The study took place over the winter of 2019–2020 and was nested within twelve general practices that are part of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), the English sentinel surveillance network.

Results

648 POCT were conducted. 193 (29.7%) of those who were swabbed had received the seasonal influenza vaccine. The crude unadjusted overall IVE was 46.1% (95% CI: 13.9–66.3). After adjusting for confounders the overall IVE was 26.0% (95% CI: 0–65.5). In total 211 patients were prescribed an antimicrobial after swab testing. Given a positive influenza POCT result, the odds ratio (OR) of receiving an antiviral was 21.1 (95%CI: 2.4–182.2, p = <0.01) and the OR of being prescribed an antibiotic was 0.6 (95%CI: 0.4–0.9, p = <0.01).

Discussion

Using influenza POCT in a primary care sentinel surveillance network to estimate IVE is feasible and provides comparable results to published IVE estimates. A further advantage is that near patient testing of influenza is associated with improvements in appropriate antiviral and antibiotic use. Larger, randomised studies are needed in primary care to see if these trends are still present and to explore their impact on outcomes.

The Use of Primary Care Big Data in Understanding the Pharmacoepidemiology of COVID-19: A Consensus Statement From the COVID-19 Primary Care Database Consortium

The use of big data containing millions of primary care medical records provides an opportunity for rapid research to help inform patient care and policy decisions during the first and subsequent waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Routinely collected primary care data have previously been used for national pandemic surveillance, quantifying associations between exposures and outcomes, identifying high risk populations, and examining the effects of interventions at scale, but there is no consensus on how to effectively conduct or report these data for COVID-19 research. A COVID-19 primary care database consortium was established in April 2020 and its researchers have ongoing COVID-19 projects in overlapping data sets with over 40 million primary care records in the United Kingdom that are variously linked to public health, secondary care, and vital status records. This consensus agreement is aimed at facilitating transparency and rigor in methodological approaches, and consistency in defining and reporting cases, exposures, confounders, stratification variables, and outcomes in relation to the pharmacoepidemiology of COVID-19. This will facilitate comparison, validation, and meta-analyses of research during and after the pandemic.

Trends in diabetes medication use in Australia, Canada, England, and Scotland: a repeated cross-sectional analysis in primary care

Background

Several new classes of glucose-lowering medications have been introduced in the past two decades. Some, such as sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2s), have evidence of improved cardiovascular outcomes, while others, such as dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4s), do not. It is therefore important to identify their uptake in order to find ways to support the use of more effective treatments.

Aim

To analyse the uptake of these new classes among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Design and setting

This was a retrospective repeated cross-sectional analysis in primary care. Rates of medication uptake in Australia, Canada, England, and Scotland were compared.

Method

Primary care Electronic Medical Data on prescriptions (Canada, UK) and dispensing data (Australia) from 2012 to 2017 were used. Individuals aged ≥40 years on at least one glucose-lowering drug class in each year of interest were included, excluding those on insulin only. Proportions of patients in each nation, for each year, on each class of medication, and on combinations of classes were determined.

Results

Data from 238 619 patients were included in 2017. The proportion of patients on sulfonylureas (SUs) decreased in three out of four nations, while metformin decreased in Canada. Use of combinations of metformin and new drug classes increased in all nations, replacing combinations involving SUs. In 2017, more patients were on DPP4s (between 19.1% and 27.6%) than on SGLT2s (between 10.1% and 15.3%).

Conclusion

New drugs are displacing SUs. However, despite evidence of better outcomes, the adoption of SGLT2s lagged behind DPP4s.

Influenza and Respiratory Virus Surveillance, Vaccine Uptake, and Effectiveness at a Time of Cocirculating COVID-19: Protocol for the English Primary Care Sentinel System for 2020-2021

Background

The Oxford–Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE) are commencing their 54th season of collaboration at a time when SARS-CoV-2 infections are likely to be cocirculating with the usual winter infections.

Objective

The aim of this study is to conduct surveillance of influenza and other monitored respiratory conditions and to report on vaccine uptake and effectiveness using nationally representative surveillance data extracted from primary care computerized medical records systems. We also aim to have general practices collect virology and serology specimens and to participate in trials and other interventional research.

Methods

The RCGP RSC network comprises over 1700 general practices in England and Wales. We will extract pseudonymized data twice weekly and are migrating to a system of daily extracts. First, we will collect pseudonymized, routine, coded clinical data for the surveillance of monitored and unexpected conditions; data on vaccine exposure and adverse events of interest; and data on approved research study outcomes. Second, we will provide dashboards to give general practices feedback about levels of care and data quality, as compared to other network practices. We will focus on collecting data on influenza-like illness, upper and lower respiratory tract infections, and suspected COVID-19. Third, approximately 300 practices will participate in the 2020-2021 virology and serology surveillance; this will include responsive surveillance and long-term follow-up of previous SARS-CoV-2 infections. Fourth, member practices will be able to recruit volunteer patients to trials, including early interventions to improve COVID-19 outcomes and point-of-care testing. Lastly, the legal basis for our surveillance with PHE is Regulation 3 of the Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002; other studies require appropriate ethical approval.

Results

The RCGP RSC network has tripled in size; there were previously 100 virology practices and 500 practices overall in the network and we now have 322 and 1724, respectively. The Oxford–RCGP Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) secure networks enable the daily analysis of the extended network; currently, 1076 practices are uploaded. We are implementing a central swab distribution system for patients self-swabbing at home in addition to in-practice sampling. We have converted all our primary care coding to Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) coding. Throughout spring and summer 2020, the network has continued to collect specimens in preparation for the winter or for any second wave of COVID-19 cases. We have collected 5404 swabs and detected 623 cases of COVID-19 through extended virological sampling, and 19,341 samples have been collected for serology. This shows our preparedness for the winter season.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a groundswell of general practices joining our network. It has also created a permissive environment in which we have developed the capacity and capability of the national primary care surveillance systems and our unique public health institute, the RCGP and University of Oxford collaboration.

Rapid community point-of-care testing for COVID-19 (RAPTOR-C19): protocol for a platform diagnostic study

BACKGROUND

The aim of RApid community Point-of-care Testing fOR COVID-19 (RAPTOR-C19) is to assess the diagnostic accuracy of multiple current and emerging point-of-care tests (POCTs) for active and past SARS-CoV2 infection in the community setting. RAPTOR-C19 will provide the community testbed to the COVID-19 National DiagnOstic Research and Evaluation Platform (CONDOR).

METHODS

RAPTOR-C19 incorporates a series of prospective observational parallel diagnostic accuracy studies of SARS-CoV2 POCTs against laboratory and composite reference standards in patients with suspected current or past SARS-CoV2 infection attending community settings. Adults and children with suspected current SARS-CoV2 infection who are having an oropharyngeal/nasopharyngeal (OP/NP) swab for laboratory SARS-CoV2 reverse transcriptase Digital/Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (d/rRT-PCR) as part of clinical care or community-based testing will be invited to participate. Adults (≥ 16 years) with suspected past symptomatic infection will also be recruited. Asymptomatic individuals will not be eligible. At the baseline visit, all participants will be asked to submit samples for at least one candidate point-of-care test (POCT) being evaluated (index test/s) as well as an OP/NP swab for laboratory SARS-CoV2 RT-PCR performed by Public Health England (PHE) (reference standard for current infection). Adults will also be asked for a blood sample for laboratory SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing by PHE (reference standard for past infection), where feasible adults will be invited to attend a second visit at 28 days for repeat antibody testing. Additional study data (e.g. demographics, symptoms, observations, household contacts) will be captured electronically. Sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values for each POCT will be calculated with exact 95% confidence intervals when compared to the reference standard. POCTs will also be compared to composite reference standards constructed using paired antibody test results, patient reported outcomes, linked electronic health records for outcomes related to COVID-19 such as hospitalisation or death, and other test results.

DISCUSSION

High-performing POCTs for community use could be transformational. Real-time results could lead to personal and public health impacts such as reducing onward household transmission of SARS-CoV2 infection, improving surveillance of health and social care staff, contributing to accurate prevalence estimates, and understanding of SARS-CoV2 transmission dynamics in the population. In contrast, poorly performing POCTs could have negative effects, so it is necessary to undertake community-based diagnostic accuracy evaluations before rolling these out.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN14226970.