Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to December 2020

Associations between language, telehealth, and clinical outcomes in patients with cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in telehealth utilization. However, language barriers have emerged as a potential obstacle to effective telemedicine engagement, impacting millions of limited English proficient (LEP) individuals. Understanding the role of language spoken in telehealth outcomes is critical, particularly in cancer care, in which consistent follow-up and communication are vital. The primary objective was to assess the impact of telehealth utilization and primary language spoken on clinical outcomes in cancer patients.

METHODS

This study utilized a retrospective cohort design, encompassing cancer patients seen at the Chao Family Comprehensive Cancer Center between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2022. The study incorporated both in-person and telehealth visits, examining the association between encounter type and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

The study included 7890 patients with more than one outpatient visit during the study period. There was decreased telehealth utilization in non-English speaking cancer patients throughout the pandemic. Increased telehealth utilization was associated with higher rates of admission, irrespective of cancer type. Additionally, telehealth visits were associated with longer duration of subsequent admissions compared to in-person visits. Spanish-speaking patients utilizing telehealth had higher rates of re-admission compared to English speakers utilizing telehealth. Patients who died had higher rates of telehealth utilization compared to patients who survived.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study demonstrates that primary language spoken is associated with differences in telehealth utilization and associated outcomes in cancer patients. These differences suggest that the interplay of telehealth and language could contribute to widening of disparities in clinical outcomes in these populations. The study underscores the need to optimize telehealth usage and minimize its limitations to enhance the quality of cancer care in a telehealth-driven era.

Excess Death Rates by State During the COVID-19 Pandemic: United States, 2020‒2023

Objectives. To estimate state-level excess death rates during 2020 to 2023 and examine differences by region and partisan orientation. Methods. We modeled death and population counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate excess death rates for the United States, 9 census divisions, and 50 states. We compared excess death rates for states with different partisan orientations, measured by the party of the seated governor and the level of partisan representation in state legislatures. Results. The United States experienced 1 277 697 excess deaths between March 2020 and July 2023. Almost 90% of these deaths were attributed to COVID-19, and 51.5% occurred after vaccines were available. The highest excess death rates first occurred in the Northeast and then shifted to the South and Mountain states. Between weeks ending June 20, 2020, through March 19, 2022, excess death rates were higher in states with Republican governors and greater Republican representation in state legislatures. Conclusions. Excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic varied considerably across the US states and were associated with partisan representation in state government, although the influence of confounding variables cannot be excluded. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(9):882-891. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307731).

Age-Specific Cancer Mortality in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to December 2020

BACKGROUND

It is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer death rates in 2020 in the US. We estimated whether there were larger-than-expected changes in cancer mortality rates from March to December 2020 after accounting for temporal and seasonal patterns using data from January 2011 to February 2020 by cancer type and age.

METHODS

We obtained death counts and underlying causes of death by cancer type, month/year (2011-2020), and age group from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to test for significant changes in cancer death rates from March to December 2020 compared with prior years.

RESULTS

After accounting for temporal trends and seasonal patterns, total cancer death rates were significantly lower than expected during March to December 2020 among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, but not in other age groups. Cancer death rates were 2% lower than expected from March to June among 55- to 64-year-olds and 2% to 3% lower from March to July and December among ≥75-year-olds. Among ≥75-year-olds, colorectal cancer death rates were lower from March to June [rate ratios (RR) = 0.94-0.96; P < 0.05]; however, lung cancer death rates were 5% lower across each month (all RRs = 0.95; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In the US, cancer death rates based on the underlying cause of death were broadly similar to expected rates from March to December 2020. However, cancer death rates were lower than expected among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, likely due to COVID-19 as a competing cause of death.

IMPACT

Cancer mortality rates from 2020 should be interpreted with caution.

Disparities in COVID-19-Related Mortality Among Older Adults With Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias: Variations Over Time

Older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) had a high risk of COVID-19-related mortality. Racial and ethnic minorities were disproportionally impacted by the pandemic. The variations in disparities, including racial and ethnic disparities and disparities across communities, in COVID-19-related mortality across the different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic among the ADRD population are unknown. This observational study estimated linear probability models for community-dwelling older adults with ADRD who were diagnosed with COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 using multiple national data (e.g., Medicare data), accounting for individual and community characteristics. Disparities in 30-day mortality were compared between 2020 and 2021. The socioeconomic disparity in COVID-19-related mortality across communities became insignificant during the later stage of the pandemic, ethnic differences in COVID-19-related mortality decreased but persisted, and racial disparity remained largely unchanged. The study provides insights into interventions to mitigate lingering disparities in health outcomes among the vulnerable population.

Disparities by sex, race, and region in acute myocardial infarction-related outcomes during the early COVID-19 pandemic: the national inpatient sample analysis

BACKGROUND

Disparities in acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-related outcomes have been reported before the COVID-19 pandemic. We studied in-hospital outcomes of AMI across demographic groups in the United States during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was queried for 2020 to identify AMI-related hospitalizations based on appropriate ICD-10-CM codes categorized by sex, race, and hospital region categories. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality in females, racial and ethnic minority groups, and Northeast hospital region compared with males, White patients, and Midwest hospital region, respectively. Multivariable regression analysis was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratio and mean difference.

RESULTS

A total of 820,893 AMI-related hospitalizations were identified during the study period. On adjusted analysis, during the early COVID-19 pandemic, females had lower odds of in-hospital mortality [aOR 0.89 (0.85-0.92); P < 0.01] and revascularization [aOR 0.68 (0.66-0.69); P < 0.01] than males. Racial and ethnic based analysis showed that Asian/Pacific Islander patients had higher odds of in-hospital mortality [aOR 1.13 (1.03-1.25); P < 0.01] than White patients. During the early COVID-19 pandemic, Northeast and Western region hospitals had higher odds of in-hospital mortality, lower odds of revascularization, longer length of stay, and higher total hospitalization costs than Midwest region hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study disclosed disparities in AMI-related mortality and revascularization by sex, race and ethnic, and region during the early COVID-19 pandemic. Special attention should be given to at-risk populations. Whether these disparities continue in the post-vaccination era warrants further study.

Toward Equitable Kidney Function Estimation in Critical Care Practice: Guidance From the Society of Critical Care Medicine's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in Renal Clinical Practice Task Force

OBJECTIVES

Accurate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) assessment is essential in critically ill patients. GFR is often estimated using creatinine-based equations, which require surrogates for muscle mass such as age and sex. Race has also been included in GFR equations, based on the assumption that Black individuals have genetically determined higher muscle mass. However, race-based GFR estimation has been questioned with the recognition that race is a poor surrogate for genetic ancestry, and racial health disparities are driven largely by socioeconomic factors. The American Society of Nephrology and the National Kidney Foundation (ASN/NKF) recommend widespread adoption of new "race-free" creatinine equations, and increased use of cystatin C as a race-agnostic GFR biomarker.

DATA SOURCES

Literature review and expert consensus.

STUDY SELECTION

English language publications evaluating GFR assessment and racial disparities.

DATA EXTRACTION

We provide an overview of the ASN/NKF recommendations. We then apply an Implementation science methodology to identify facilitators and barriers to implementation of the ASN/NKF recommendations into critical care settings and identify evidence-based implementation strategies. Last, we highlight research priorities for advancing GFR estimation in critically ill patients.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Implementation of the new creatinine-based GFR equation is facilitated by low cost and relative ease of incorporation into electronic health records. The key barrier to implementation is a lack of direct evidence in critically ill patients. Additional barriers to implementing cystatin C-based GFR estimation include higher cost and lack of test availability in most laboratories. Further, cystatin C concentrations are influenced by inflammation, which complicates interpretation.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of direct evidence in critically ill patients is a key barrier to broad implementation of newly developed "race-free" GFR equations. Additional research evaluating GFR equations in critically ill patients and novel approaches to dynamic kidney function estimation is required to advance equitable GFR assessment in this vulnerable population.

Excess deaths associated with COVID-19 by rurality and demographic factors in the United States

PURPOSE

To estimate percent excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic by rural-urban residence in the United States and to describe rural-urban disparities by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Using US mortality data, we used overdispersed Poisson regression models to estimate monthly expected death counts by rurality of residence, age group, sex, and race/ethnicity, and compared expected death counts with observed deaths. We then summarized excess deaths over 6 6-month time periods.

FINDINGS

There were 16.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.8, 17.0) more deaths than expected between March 2020 and February 2023. The percent excess varied by rurality (large central metro: 18.2% [18.1, 18.4], large fringe metro: 15.6% [15.5, 15.8], medium metro: 18.1% [18.0, 18.3], small metro: 15.5% [15.3, 15.7], micropolitan rural: 16.3% [16.1, 16.5], and noncore rural: 15.8% [15.6, 16.1]). The percent excess deaths were 20.2% (20.1, 20.3) for males and 13.6% (13.5, 13.7) for females, and highest for Hispanic persons (49% [49.0, 49.6]), followed by non-Hispanic Black persons (28% [27.5, 27.9]) and non-Hispanic White persons (12% [11.6, 11.8]). The 6-month time periods with the highest percent excess deaths for large central metro areas were March 2020-August 2020 and September 2020-February 2021; for all other areas, these time periods were September 2020-February 2021 and September 2021-February 2022.

CONCLUSION

Percent excess deaths varied by rurality, age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and time period. Monitoring excess deaths by rurality may be useful in assessing the impact of the pandemic over time, as rural-urban patterns appear to differ.

Descriptive study of causes of death and COVID-19-associated morbidities from the New York City electronic death record: first wave of the pandemic March-July 2020

OBJECTIVE

Assessing excess deaths from benchmarks across causes of death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifying morbidities most frequently mentioned alongside COVID-19 deaths in the death record.

METHODS

Descriptive study of death records between 11 March 2020 and 27 July 2020, from the New York City Bureau of Vital Statistics. Mortality counts and percentages were compared with the average for the same calendar period of the previous 2 years. Distributions of morbidities from among forty categories of conditions were generated citywide and by sex, race/ethnicity and four age groups. Causes of death were assumed to follow Poisson processes for Z-score construction.

RESULTS

Within the study period, 46 563 all-cause deaths were reported; 132.9% higher than the average for the same period of the previous 2 years (19 989). Of those 46 563 records, 19 789 (42.5%) report COVID-19 as underlying cause of death. COVID-19 was the most prevalent cause across all demographics, with respiratory conditions (prominently pneumonia), hypertension and diabetes frequently mentioned morbidities. Black non-Hispanics had greater proportions of mentions of pneumonia, hypertension, and diabetes. Hispanics had the largest proportion of COVID-19 deaths (52.9%). Non-COVID-19 excess deaths relative to the previous 2-year averages were widely reported.

CONCLUSION

Mortality directly due to COVID-19 was accompanied by significant increases across most other causes from their reference averages, potentially suggesting a sizable COVID-19 death undercount. Indirect effects due to COVID-19 may partially account for some increases, but findings are hardly dispositive. Unavailability of vaccines for the time period precludes any impact over excess deaths. Respiratory and cardiometabolic-related conditions were most frequently reported among COVID-19 deaths across demographic characteristics.

Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Rates and Excess Deaths, 2010-2022

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased during the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic, but whether these trends endured in 2022 is unknown. This analysis describes temporal trends in CVD death rates from 2010 to 2022 and estimates excess CVD deaths from 2020 to 2022.

METHODS

Using national mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System, deaths among adults aged ≥35 years were classified by underlying cause of death International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes for CVD (I00-I99), heart disease (I00-I09, I11, I13, I20-I51), and stroke (I60-I69). Analyses in Joinpoint software identified trends in CVD age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 and estimated the number of excess CVD deaths from 2020 to 2022.

RESULTS

During 2010-2022, 10,951,403 CVD deaths occurred (75.6% heart disease, 16.9% stroke). The national CVD AAMR declined by 8.9% from 2010 to 2019 (456.6-416.0 per 100,000) and then increased by 9.3% from 2019 to 2022 to 454.5 per 100,000, which approximated the 2010 rate (456.7 per 100,000). From 2020 to 2022, 228,524 excess CVD deaths occurred, which was 9% more CVD deaths than expected based on trends from 2010 to 2019. Results varied by CVD subtype and population subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite stabilization of the public health emergency, declines in CVD mortality rates reversed in 2020 and remained high in 2022, representing almost a decade of lost progress and over 228,000 excess CVD deaths. Findings underscore the importance of prioritizing prevention and management of CVD to improve outcomes.

Persistence of anxiety among Asian Americans: racial and ethnic heterogeneity in the longitudinal trends in mental well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic

PURPOSE

To examine within-individual time trends in mental well-being and factors influencing heterogeneity of these trends.

METHODS

Longitudinal telephone survey of adults over 3 waves from the New York City (NYC) Metropolitan area during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Participants reported depression using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-8, anxiety using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD)-7, and past 30-day increases in tobacco or alcohol use at each wave. Adjusted mixed effects logistic regression models assessed time trends in mental well-being.

RESULTS

There were 1227 respondents. Over 3 study waves, there were statistically significant decreasing time trends in the odds of each outcome (adjusted OR (95% CI) 0.47 (0.37, 0.60); p < 0.001 for depression; aOR (95% CI) 0.55 (0.45, 0.66); p < 0.001 for anxiety; aOR (95% CI) 0.50 (0.35, 0.71); p < 0.001 for past 30-day increased tobacco use; aOR (95% CI) 0.31 (0.24, 0.40); p < 0.001 for past 30-day increased alcohol use). Time trends for anxiety varied by race and ethnicity (p value for interaction = 0.05, 4 df); anxiety declined over time among white, Black, Hispanic, and Other race and ethnicity but not among Asian participants.

CONCLUSIONS

In a demographically varied population from the NYC Metropolitan area, depression, anxiety and increased substance use were common during the first months of the pandemic, but decreased over the following year. While this was consistently the case across most demographic groups, the odds of anxiety among Asian participants did not decrease over time.

Associations of Increased WIC Benefits for Fruits and Vegetables With Food Security and Satisfaction by Race and Ethnicity

Introduction

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides nutrition support for racially and ethnically diverse populations. In 2021, the monthly cash value benefit (CVB) for the purchase of fruits and vegetables increased from $9 to $35 and was later adjusted to $24. This study investigated, by racial and ethnic groups, whether CVB increases were associated with increases in CVB redemption, household food security, child fruit and vegetable intake, satisfaction with CVB amount, and likelihood of continued participation in WIC if the CVB returned to $9 per month.

Methods

We conducted a longitudinal study of WIC participants (N = 1,770) in southern California at 3 time points, from April 2021 through May 2022; the CVB amount was $9 at baseline, $35 at Survey 2, and $24 at Survey 3. Racial and ethnic groups were Hispanic English-speakers, Hispanic Spanish-speakers, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Other, and non-Hispanic White. We used mixed-effect and modified Poisson regressions to evaluate outcomes by group.

Results

At baseline, groups differed significantly in dollars of CVB redeemed, percentage of CVB redeemed, household food security, and satisfaction with CVB amount. After the increase in CVB, we found increases in all groups in CVB redemption, household food security, and satisfaction. Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic English-speaking groups, who had low levels of satisfaction at baseline, had larger increases in satisfaction than other groups. Reported likelihood of continued WIC participation if the monthly CVB returned to $9 also differed significantly by group, ranging from 62.5% to 90.0%.

Conclusion

The increase in CVB for children receiving WIC benefited all racial and ethnic groups. Continued investment in an augmented CVB could improve health outcomes for a racially and ethnically diverse WIC population.

Widening Disparities in COVID-19 Mortality and Life Expectancy Among 15 Major Racial and Ethnic Groups in the United States, 2020-2021

Persistent and often widening racial/ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities in health have long existed in the US. Although racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality are well documented, COVID-19 mortality risks and resultant reductions in life expectancy during the pandemic for detailed racial and ethnic groups in the US, including Asian and Hispanic subgroups, are not known. We used 2020-2021 US mortality data to estimate age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates, life expectancy, and the consequent declines in life expectancy due to COVID-19 overall and for the 15 largest racial/ethnic groups. We used standard life table methodology, cause-elimination life tables, and inequality indices to analyze trends in racial/ethnic disparities. The number of COVID-19 deaths increased from 350,827 in 2020 to 416,890 in 2021. COVID-19 death rates varied 7-fold among the racial/ethnic groups; Japanese and Chinese had the lowest mortality rates and Mexicans and American Indians/Alaska Natives (AIANs) had the highest rates. In 2021, life expectancy ranged from 70.3 years for Blacks and 70.6 years for AIANs to 85.2 years for Japanese and 87.7 years for Chinese. The life-expectancy gap was wide- 22.4 years in 2020 and 23.2 years in 2021. COVID-19 mortality had the greatest impact in reducing the life expectancy of Mexicans (3.53 years in 2020 and 3.78 years in 2021), Central/South Americans (4.86 years in 2020 and 3.50 years in 2021), and AIANs (2.51 years in 2020 and 2.38 years in 2021). Racial/ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality, life expectancy, and resultant reductions in life expectancy during the pandemic widened between 2020 and 2021.

Costs of Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injuries in the U.S., 2019 and 2020

INTRODUCTION

Firearm-related injuries are among the five leading causes of death for people aged 1-44 years in the U.S. The immediate and long-term harms of firearm injuries pose an economic burden on society. Fatal and nonfatal firearm injury costs in the U.S. were estimated providing up-to-date economic burden estimates.

METHODS

Counts of nonfatal firearm injuries were obtained from the 2019-2020 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. Data on nonfatal injury intent were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System - Firearm Injury Surveillance System. Counts of deaths (firearm as underlying cause) were obtained from the 2019-2020 multiple cause-of-death mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Analyses were conducted in 2023.

RESULTS

The total cost of firearm related injuries and deaths in the U.S. for 2020 was $493.2 billion, a 16 percent increase compared with 2019. There are significant disparities in the cost of firearm deaths in 2019-2020, with non-Hispanic Black people, males, and young and middle-aged groups being the most affected.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the nonfatal firearm injury-related costs are attributed to hospitalization. These findings highlight the racial/ethnic differences in fatal firearm injuries and the disproportionate cost burden to urban areas. Addressing this important public health problem can help ameliorate the costs to our society from the rising rates of firearm injuries.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on COPD Patient Mortality: A Nationwide Study in France

Objectives: We investigated the mortality patterns of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in France relative to a control population, comparing year 2020 to pre-pandemic years 2017-2019. Methods: COPD patient and sex, age and residence matched control cohorts were created from the French National Health Data System. Survival was analyzed using Cox regressions and standardized rates. Results: All-cause mortality increased in 2020 compared to 2019 in the COPD population (+4%), but to a lesser extent than in the control population (+10%). Non-COVID-19 mortality decreased to a greater extent in COPD patients (-5%) than in the controls (-2%). Death rate from COVID-19 was twice as high in the COPD population relative to the control population (547 vs. 279 per 100,000 person-years). Conclusion: The direct impact of the pandemic in terms of deaths from COVID-19 was much greater in the COPD population than in the control population. However, the larger decline in non-COVID-19 mortality in COPD patients could reflect a specific protective effect of the containment measures on this population, counterbalancing the direct impact they had been experiencing.

Population Attributable Fraction of Nonvaccination of COVID-19 Due to Vaccine Hesitancy, United States, 2021

Understanding the extent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) nonvaccination attributable to vaccine hesitancy versus other barriers can help prioritize approaches for increasing vaccination uptake. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Research and Development Survey, a nationally representative survey fielded from May 1 to June 30, 2021 (n = 5,458), we examined the adjusted population attribution fraction (PAF) of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy attributed to nonvaccination according to sociodemographic characteristics and health-related variables. Overall, the adjusted PAF of nonvaccination attributed to vaccine hesitancy was 76.1%. The PAF was highest among adults who were ≥50 years of age (87.9%), were non-Hispanic White (83.7%), had a bachelor's degree or higher (82.7%), had an annual household income of at least $75,000 (85.5%), were insured (82.4%), and had a usual place for health care (80.7%). The PAF was lower for those who were current smokers (65.3%) compared with never smokers (77.9%), those who had anxiety or depression (65.2%) compared with those who did not (80.1%), and those who had a disability (64.5%) compared with those who did not (79.2%). Disparities in PAF suggest areas for prioritization of efforts for intervention and development of messaging campaigns that address all barriers to uptake, including hesitancy and access, to advance health equity and protect individuals from COVID-19.

Race and ethnicity in the COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium: demographics, treatments, and outcomes, an international observational registry study

BACKGROUND

Improving access to healthcare for ethnic minorities is a public health priority in many countries, yet little is known about how to incorporate information on race, ethnicity, and related social determinants of health into large international studies. Most studies of differences in treatments and outcomes of COVID-19 associated with race and ethnicity are from single cities or countries.

METHODS

We present the breadth of race and ethnicity reported for patients in the COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium, an international observational cohort study from 380 sites across 32 countries. Patients from the United States, Australia, and South Africa were the focus of an analysis of treatments and in-hospital mortality stratified by race and ethnicity. Inclusion criteria were admission to intensive care for acute COVID-19 between January 14th, 2020, and February 15, 2022. Measurements included demographics, comorbidities, disease severity scores, treatments for organ failure, and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Seven thousand three hundred ninety-four adults met the inclusion criteria. There was a wide variety of race and ethnicity designations. In the US, American Indian or Alaska Natives frequently received dialysis and mechanical ventilation and had the highest mortality. In Australia, organ failure scores were highest for Aboriginal/First Nations persons. The South Africa cohort ethnicities were predominantly Black African (50%) and Coloured* (28%). All patients in the South Africa cohort required mechanical ventilation. Mortality was highest for South Africa (68%), lowest for Australia (15%), and 30% in the US.

CONCLUSIONS

Disease severity was higher for Indigenous ethnicity groups in the US and Australia than for other ethnicities. Race and ethnicity groups with longstanding healthcare disparities were found to have high acuity from COVID-19 and high mortality. Because there is no global system of race and ethnicity classification, researchers designing case report forms for international studies should consider including related information, such as socioeconomic status or migration background. *Note: "Coloured" is an official, contemporary government census category of South Africa and is a term of self-identification of race and ethnicity of many citizens of South Africa.

Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023

Excess deaths provide total impact estimates of major crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated excess death trajectories across countries with accurate death registration and population age structure data and assessed relationships with vulnerability indicators. Using the Human Mortality Database on 34 countries, excess deaths were calculated for 2020-2023 (to week 29, 2023) using 2017-2019 as reference, with adjustment for 5 age strata. Countries were divided into less and more vulnerable; the latter had per capita nominal GDP < $30,000, Gini > 0.35 for income inequality and/or at least ≥2.5% of their population living in poverty. Excess deaths (as proportion of expected deaths, p%) were inversely correlated with per capita GDP (r = -0.60), correlated with proportion living in poverty (r = 0.66), and modestly correlated with income inequality (r = 0.45). Incidence rate ratio for deaths was 1.062 (95% CI, 1.038-1.087) in more versus less vulnerable countries. Excess deaths started deviating in the two groups after the first wave. Between-country heterogeneity diminished gradually within each group. Less vulnerable countries had mean p% = -0.8% and 0.4% in 0-64 and >65-y-old strata. More vulnerable countries had mean p% = 7.0% and 7.2%, respectively. Lower death rates were seen in children of age 0-14 y during 2020-2023 versus prepandemic years. While the pandemic hit some countries earlier than others, country vulnerability dominated eventually the cumulative impact. Half the analyzed countries witnessed no substantial excess deaths versus prepandemic levels, while the others suffered major death tolls.

Factors Associated with Self-reported COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalization among Patients Seeking Care at a Comprehensive Cancer Center

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 infection severity differs by race and ethnicity, but its long-term effect on cancer-related outcomes is unknown. Therefore, information on COVID-19 history is critical to ascertain among new cancer patients in order to advance research on its impact on cancer outcomes and potentially related health disparities.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 16,025 new patients seeking care at Moffitt Cancer Center (MCC) between 2021 and 2022. Patient self-reported histories of COVID-19 infection and other pre-existing health conditions were obtained from electronic questionnaires administered to all new MCC patients. Associations between demographics and COVID-19 infection and hospitalization were examined.

RESULTS

A total of 1,971 patients (12.3%) reported ever having COVID-19. Self-reported COVID-19 history was significantly more prevalent in Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic patients (OR = 1.24, 1.05-1.45) and less prevalent in Asian versus White patients (OR = 0.49, 95% 0.33-0.70). Among patients who ever had COVID-19, 10.6% reported a COVID-19-related hospitalization. Males had higher odds of a COVID-19 related hospitalization than females (OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.09-2.05), as did Black/African American patients (OR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.18-3.60) and patients of races other than Black/African American and Asian (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.43-4.54) compared to White patients. Hispanic patients also experienced higher odds of hospitalization (OR = 2.06, 95% CI-1.29- 3.23) compared with non-Hispanic patients of all races in a sensitivity analysis that combined race/ethnicity. Pre-existing lung and breathing problems were associated with higher odds of being hospitalized with COVID-19 (OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.61-3.48), but these and other health conditions did not explain the observed associations between race and COVID-19 hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher rates of COVID-19 hospitalization were observed among patients identifying as Black/African American or Hispanic independent of pre-existing health conditions. Future studies evaluating long-term effects of COVID-19 should carefully examine potential racial/ethnic disparities in cancer outcomes.

Gender differences in estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand

BACKGROUND

There is a limited body of research specifically examining gender inequality in excess mortality and its variations across age groups and geographical locations during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the patterns of gender inequality in excess all-cause mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Data pertaining to all-cause deaths and population between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2021, were obtained from Thailand's Bureau of Registration Administration. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique was used to estimate excess mortality during the pandemic between January 2020 to December 2021. Gender differential excess mortality was measured as the difference in age-standardized mortality rates between men and women.

RESULTS

Our SARIMA-based estimate of all-cause mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic amounted to 1,032,921 deaths, with COVID-19-related fatalities surpassing official figures by 1.64 times. The analysis revealed fluctuating patterns of excess and deficit in all-cause mortality rates across different phases of the pandemic, as well as among various age groups and regions. In 2020, the most pronounced gender disparity in excess all-cause mortality emerged in April, with 4.28 additional female deaths per 100,000, whereas in 2021, the peak gender gap transpired in August, with 7.52 more male deaths per 100,000. Individuals in the 80 + age group exhibited the largest gender gap for most of the observed period. Gender differences in excess mortality were uniform across regions and over the period observed. Bangkok showed the highest gender disparity during the peak of the fourth wave, with 24.18 more male deaths per 100,000.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate an overall presence of gender inequality in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, observed across age groups and regions. These findings highlight the need for further attention to be paid to gender disparities in mortality and call for targeted interventions to address these disparities.

Excess Mortality With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias as an Underlying or Contributing Cause During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Importance

Adults with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) are particularly vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deaths associated with ADRD increased substantially in pandemic year 1. It is unclear whether mortality associated with ADRD declined when better prevention strategies, testing, and vaccines became widely available in year 2.

Objective

To compare pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD between year 1 and year 2 overall and by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and place of death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This time series analysis used all death certificates of US decedents 65 years and older with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death from January 2014 through February 2022.

Exposure

COVID-19 pandemic era.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD were defined as the difference between deaths with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause observed from March 2020 to February 2021 (year 1) and March 2021 to February 2022 (year 2) compared with expected deaths during this period. Expected deaths were estimated using data from January 2014 to February 2020 fitted with autoregressive integrated moving average models.

Results

Overall, 2 334 101 death certificates were analyzed. A total of 94 688 (95% prediction interval [PI], 84 192-104 890) pandemic-era excess deaths with ADRD were estimated in year 1 and 21 586 (95% PI, 10 631-32 450) in year 2. Declines in ADRD-related deaths in year 2 were substantial for every age, sex, and racial and ethnic group evaluated. Pandemic-era ADRD-related excess deaths declined among nursing home/long-term care residents (from 34 259 [95% PI, 25 819-42 677] in year 1 to -22 050 [95% PI, -30 765 to -13 273] in year 2), but excess deaths at home remained high (from 34 487 [95% PI, 32 815-36 142] in year 1 to 28 804 [95% PI, 27 067-30 571] in year 2).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that large increases in mortality with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death occurred in COVID-19 pandemic year 1 but were largely mitigated in pandemic year 2. The most pronounced declines were observed for deaths in nursing home/long-term care settings. Conversely, excess deaths at home and in medical facilities remained high in year 2.

COVID-19 vaccination willingness and uptake among rural Black/African American, Latino, and White adults

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to assess differences in COVID-19 vaccine willingness and uptake between rural and nonrural adults, and within rural racial-ethnic groups.

METHODS

We utilized data from the COVID-19's Unequal Racial Burden online survey, which included 1,500 Black/African American, Latino, and White rural adults (n = 500 each). Baseline (12/2020-2/2021) and 6-month follow-up (8/2021-9/2021) surveys were administered. A cohort of nonrural Black/African American, Latino, and White adults (n = 2,277) was created to compare differences between rural and nonrural communities. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess associations between rurality, race-ethnicity, and vaccine willingness and uptake.

FINDINGS

At baseline, only 24.9% of rural adults were extremely willing to be vaccinated and 28.4% were not at all willing. Rural White adults were least willing to be vaccinated, compared to nonrural White adults (extremely willing: aOR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.30-0.64). At follow-up, 69.3% of rural adults were vaccinated; however, only 25.3% of rural adults who reported being unwilling to vaccinate were vaccinated at follow-up, compared to 95.6% of adults who were extremely willing to be vaccinated and 76.3% who were unsure. Among those unwilling to vaccinate at follow-up, almost half reported distrust in the government (52.3%) and drug companies (46.2%); 80% reported that nothing would change their minds regarding vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

By August 2021, almost 70% of rural adults were vaccinated. However, distrust and misinformation were prevalent among those unwilling to vaccinate at follow-up. To continue to effectively combat COVID-19 in rural communities, we need to address misinformation to increase COVID-19 vaccination rates.

Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023

Excess deaths provide total impact estimates of major crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated excess death's trajectories during 2020-2023 across countries with accurate death registration and population age structure data; and assessed relationships with economic indicators of vulnerability. Using the Human Mortality Database on 34 countries, excess deaths were calculated for 2020-2023 (to week 29, 2023) using 2017-2019 as reference, with weekly expected death calculations and adjustment for 5 age strata. Countries were divided into less and more vulnerable; the latter had per capita nominal GDP<$30,000, Gini>0.35 for income inequality and/or at least 2.5% of their population living in poverty. Excess deaths (as proportion of expected deaths, p%) were inversely correlated with per capita GDP (r=-0.60), correlated with proportion living in poverty (r=0.66) and modestly correlated with income inequality (r=0.45). Incidence rate ratio for deaths was 1.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.08) in the more versus less vulnerable countries. Excess deaths started deviating in the two groups after the first wave. Between-country heterogeneity diminished over time within each of the two groups. Less vulnerable countries had mean p%=-0.8% and 0.4% in 0-64 and >65 year-old strata while more vulnerable countries had mean p%=7.0% and 7.2%, respectively. Usually lower death rates were seen in children 0-14 years old during 2020-2023 versus pre-pandemic years. While the pandemic hit some countries earlier than others, country vulnerability dominated eventually the cumulative impact. Half of the analyzed countries witnessed no substantial excess deaths versus pre-pandemic levels, while the other half suffered major death tolls.

Did the socioeconomic inequalities in avoidable and unavoidable mortality worsen during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea?

OBJECTIVES

This study examined changes in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Korea before and after the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

From 2017 to 2020, age-standardized mortality rates were calculated for all-cause deaths, avoidable deaths (preventable deaths, treatable deaths), and unavoidable deaths using National Health Insurance claims data and Statistics Korea's cause of death data. In addition, the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative index of inequality (RII) by six income levels (Medical Aid beneficiary group and quintile of health insurance premiums) were computed to analyze the magnitude and change of mortality inequalities.

RESULTS

All-cause and avoidable mortality rates decreased steadily between 2017 and 2020, whereas unavoidable mortality remained relatively stable. In the case of mortality inequalities, the disparity in all-cause mortality between income classes was exacerbated in 2020 compared to 2019, with the SII increasing from 185.44 to 189.22 and the RII increasing from 3.99 to 4.29. In particular, the preventable and unavoidable mortality rates showed an apparent increase in inequality, as both the SII (preventable: 91.31 to 92.01, unavoidable: 69.99 to 75.38) and RII (preventable: 3.42 to 3.66, unavoidable: 5.02 to 5.89) increased.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality inequality continued to increase, although there was no sign of exacerbation. It is necessary to continuously evaluate mortality inequalities, particularly for preventable and unavoidable deaths.

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar-Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug-Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021-Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar-Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.

Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations

Several teams have been publishing global estimates of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we examine potential flaws and underappreciated sources of uncertainty in global excess death calculations. Adjusting for changing population age structure is essential. Otherwise, excess deaths are markedly overestimated in countries with increasingly aging populations. Adjusting for changes in other high-risk indicators, such as residence in long-term facilities, may also make a difference. Death registration is highly incomplete in most countries; completeness corrections should allow for substantial uncertainty and consider that completeness may have changed during pandemic years. Excess death estimates have high sensitivity to modelling choice. Therefore different options should be considered and the full range of results should be shown for different choices of pre-pandemic reference periods and imposed models. Any post-modelling corrections in specific countries should be guided by pre-specified rules. Modelling of all-cause mortality (ACM) in countries that have ACM data and extrapolating these models to other countries is precarious; models may lack transportability. Existing global excess death estimates underestimate the overall uncertainty that is multiplicative across diverse sources of uncertainty. Informative excess death estimates require risk stratification, including age groups and ethnic/racial strata. Data to-date suggest a death deficit among children during the pandemic and marked socioeconomic differences in deaths, widening inequalities. Finally, causal explanations require great caution in disentangling SARS-CoV-2 deaths, indirect pandemic effects and effects from measures taken. We conclude that excess deaths have many uncertainties, but globally deaths from SARS-CoV-2 may be the minority of calculated excess deaths.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's mortality impact. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating factors, and inform response efforts. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,179,024 excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the pandemic (first: 634,830; second: 544,194). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties but increased in nonmetropolitan counties. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeastern counties, nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality by July 2021. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's rural impact grows.

Exploring resilience in public services within marginalised communities during COVID-19: The case of coal mining regions in Colombia

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on marginalised communities and its effects on the provision of public services. Focusing on two coal mining regions in Colombia during the pandemic crisis, and examining Indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities, we analyze the provision of public services at a local level, identifying both shortcomings and resilience. Findings show that the lack of resilient public services amplified the effects of COVID-19 and its containment measures, exacerbating existing structural inequalities within local marginalised communities. It also reinforced the control exercised by coal mining companies within local economies. However, the substantial lack of public service provision also provided space for the development and strengthening of several resilience strategies among local communities, such as solidarity networks and schemes and the revitalization of local environmental knowledge. The study identifies multiple shortcomings in how the national and local administrations handled the COVID-19 outbreak and highlights the potential of enhancing resilience in public services to support marginalised communities in times of crisis.

Beyond COVID-19: Designing Inclusive Public Health Surveillance by Including Wastewater Monitoring

Wastewater-based epidemiology is a promising and expanding public health surveillance method. The current wastewater testing trajectory to monitor primarily at community wastewater treatment plants was necessitated by immediate needs of the pandemic. Going forward, specific consideration should be given to monitoring vulnerable and underserved communities to ensure inclusion and rapid response to public health threats. This is particularly important when clinical testing data are insufficient to characterize community virus levels and spread in specific locations. Now is a timely call to action for equitably protecting health in the United States, which can be guided with intentional and inclusive wastewater monitoring.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Risk Factors Associated With Severe COVID-19 Among Older Adults With ADRD

OBJECTIVE

To examine racial/ethnic differences in risk factors, and their associations with COVID-19-related outcomes among older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD).

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

National Medicare claims data and the Minimum Data Set 3.0 from April 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, were linked in this study. We included community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with ADRD, diagnosed with COVID-19 between April 1, 2020, and December 1, 2020 (N = 138,533).

METHODS

Two outcome variables were defined: hospitalization within 14 days and death within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. We obtained information on individual sociodemographic characteristics, chronic conditions, and prior health care utilization based on the Medicare claims and the Minimum Dataset. Machine learning methods, including lasso regression and discriminative pattern mining, were used to identify risk factors in racial/ethnic subgroups (ie, White, Black, and Hispanic individuals). The associations between identified risk factors and outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression and compared across racial/ethnic subgroups using the coefficient comparison approach.

RESULTS

We found higher risks of COVID-19-related outcomes among Black and Hispanic individuals. The areas under the curve of the models with identified risk factors were 0.65 to 0.68 for mortality and 0.61 to 0.62 for hospitalization across racial/ethnic subgroups. Although some identified risk factors (eg, age, gender) for COVID-19-related outcomes were common among all racial/ethnic subgroups, other risk factors (eg, hypertension, obesity) varied by racial/ethnic subgroups. Furthermore, the associations between some common risk factors and COVID-19-related outcomes also varied by race/ethnicity. Being male was related to 138.2% (95% CI: 1.996-2.841), 64.7% (95% CI: 1.546-1.755), and 37.1% (95% CI: 1.192-1.578) increased odds of death among Hispanic, White, and Black individuals, respectively. In addition, the racial/ethnic disparity in COVID-19-related outcomes could not be completely explained by the identified risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Racial/ethnic differences were detected in the likelihood of having COVID-19-related outcomes, specific risk factors, and relationships between specific risk factors and COVID-19-related outcomes. Future research is needed to elucidate the reasons for these differences.

Excess Mortality and Years of Potential Life Lost Among the Black Population in the US, 1999-2020

Importance

Amid efforts in the US to promote health equity, there is a need to assess recent progress in reducing excess deaths and years of potential life lost among the Black population compared with the White population.

Objective

To evaluate trends in excess mortality and years of potential life lost among the Black population compared with the White population.

Design, setting, and participants

Serial cross-sectional study using US national data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1999 through 2020. We included data from non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black populations across all age groups.

Exposures

Race as documented in the death certificates.

Main outcomes and measures

Excess age-adjusted all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, age-specific mortality, and years of potential life lost rates (per 100 000 individuals) among the Black population compared with the White population.

Results

From 1999 to 2011, the age-adjusted excess mortality rate declined from 404 to 211 excess deaths per 100 000 individuals among Black males (P for trend <.001). However, the rate plateaued from 2011 through 2019 (P for trend = .98) and increased in 2020 to 395-rates not seen since 2000. Among Black females, the rate declined from 224 excess deaths per 100 000 individuals in 1999 to 87 in 2015 (P for trend <.001). There was no significant change between 2016 and 2019 (P for trend = .71) and in 2020 rates increased to 192-levels not seen since 2005. The trends in rates of excess years of potential life lost followed a similar pattern. From 1999 to 2020, the disproportionately higher mortality rates in Black males and females resulted in 997 623 and 628 464 excess deaths, respectively, representing a loss of more than 80 million years of life. Heart disease had the highest excess mortality rates, and the excess years of potential life lost rates were largest among infants and middle-aged adults.

Conclusions and relevance

Over a recent 22-year period, the Black population in the US experienced more than 1.63 million excess deaths and more than 80 million excess years of life lost when compared with the White population. After a period of progress in reducing disparities, improvements stalled, and differences between the Black population and the White population worsened in 2020.

Association Between Patient Race and Ethnicity and Outcomes With COVID-19: A Retrospective Analysis From a Large Mid-Atlantic Health System

BACKGROUND

Members of racial and ethnic minority groups have been disproportionately impacted by coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19). The objective of the study is to describe associations between race and ethnicity on clinical outcomes such as need for mechanical ventilation and mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of patients with severe COVID-19 infection admitted within a large, not-for-profit healthcare system in the mid-Atlantic region between March and July, 2020. Patient demographic data and clinical outcomes were abstracted from the electronic health record. Logistic regressions were performed to estimate associations between race and ethnicity and the clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

The study population (N  =  2931) was stratified into 1 of 3 subgroups: non-Hispanic White (n  =  466), non-Hispanic Black (n  =  1611), and Hispanic (n  =  654). The average age of White, Black, and Hispanic patients was 69  ±  17.06, 64  ±  15.9, and 50  ±  15.53 years old, respectively (P < .001). Compared to White patients, Black and Hispanic patients were at increased odds of needing mechanical ventilation due to COVID-19 pneumonia (odds ratio [OR] Black  =  1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI]  =  1.04 to 1.75, P < .05; OR Hispanic  =  1.43, 95% CI  =  1.06 to 1.93, P < .05). When compared to White patients, Hispanic patients were at decreased odds of death (OR  =  0.45, 95% CI  =  0.32 to 0.63, P < .001). However, when adjusting for age, there were no statistically significant differences in the odds of death between these groups (adjusted OR [aOR] Black  =  1.05, 95% CI  =  0.80 to 1.38, P  =  .71; aOR Hispanic  =  1.10, 95% CI  =  0.76 to 1.60, P  =  .62).

CONCLUSION

Our analysis demonstrated that Hispanic patients were more likely require mechanical ventilation but had lower mortality when compared to White patients, with lower average age likely mediating this association. These findings emphasize the importance of outreach efforts to communities of color to increase prevention measures and vaccination uptake to reduce infection with COVID-19.

Temporal variation of excess deaths from diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has persisted for more than two years with the evident excess mortality from diabetes, few studies have investigated its temporal patterns. This study aims to estimate the excess deaths from diabetes in the United States (US) during the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the excess deaths by spatiotemporal pattern, age groups, sex, and race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Diabetes as one of multiple causes of death or an underlying cause of death were both considered into analyses. The Poisson log-linear regression model was used to estimate weekly expected counts of deaths during the pandemic with adjustments for long-term trend and seasonality. Excess deaths were measured by the difference between observed and expected death counts, including weekly average excess deaths, excess death rate, and excess risk. We calculated the excess estimates by pandemic wave, US state, and demographic characteristic.

RESULTS

From March 2020 to March 2022, deaths that diabetes as one of multiple causes of death and an underlying cause of death were about 47.6 % and 18.4 % higher than the expected. The excess deaths of diabetes had evident temporal patterns with two large percentage increases observed during March 2020, to June 2020, and June 2021 to November 2021. The regional heterogeneity and underlying age and racial/ethnic disparities of the excess deaths were also clearly observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlighted the increased risks of diabetes mortality, heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns, and associated demographic disparities during the pandemic. Practical actions are warranted to monitor disease progression, and lessen health disparities in patients with diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Associations between mortality from COVID-19 and other causes: A state-level analysis

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high death toll from COVID-19 was accompanied by a rise in mortality from other causes of death. The objective of this study was to identify the relationship between mortality from COVID-19 and changes in mortality from specific causes of death by exploiting spatial variation in these relationships across US states.

METHODS

We use cause-specific mortality data from CDC Wonder and population estimates from the US Census Bureau to examine relationships at the state level between mortality from COVID-19 and changes in mortality from other causes of death. We calculate age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for three age groups, nine underlying causes of death, and all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the first full year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021) and the year prior (March 2019-February 2020). We then estimate the relationship between changes in cause-specific ASDR and COVID-19 ASDR using linear regression analysis weighted by the size of the state's population.

RESULTS

We estimate that causes of death other than COVID-19 represent 19.6% of the total mortality burden associated with COVID-19 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. At ages 25+, circulatory disease accounted for 51.3% of this burden while dementia (16.4%), other respiratory diseases (12.4%), influenza/pneumonia (8.7%) and diabetes (8.6%) also contribute. In contrast, there was an inverse association across states between COVID-19 death rates and changes in death rates from cancer. We found no state-level association between COVID-19 mortality and rising mortality from external causes.

CONCLUSIONS

States with unusually high death rates from COVID-19 experienced an even larger mortality burden than implied by those rates alone. Circulatory disease served as the most important route through which COVID-19 mortality affected death rates from other causes of death. Dementia and other respiratory diseases made the second and third largest contributions. In contrast, mortality from neoplasms tended to decline in states with the highest death rates from COVID-19. Such information may help to inform state-level responses aimed at easing the full mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Excess cardiovascular mortality across multiple COVID-19 waves in the United States from March 2020 to March 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the access of patients with cardiovascular diseases to healthcare services, causing excess deaths. However, a detailed analysis of temporal variations of excess cardiovascular mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has been lacking. Here we estimate time-varied excess cardiovascular deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by the negative binomial log-linear regression model) in the United States. From March 2020 to March 2022 there were 90,160 excess cardiovascular deaths, or 4.9% more cardiovascular deaths than expected. Two large peaks of national excess cardiovascular mortality were observed during the periods of March-June 2020 and June-November 2021, coinciding with two peaks of COVID-19 deaths, but the temporal patterns varied by state, age, sex and race and ethnicity. The excess cardiovascular death percentages were 5.7% and 4.0% in men and women, respectively, and 3.6%, 8.8%, 7.5% and 7.7% in non-Hispanic White, Black, Asian and Hispanic people, respectively. Our data highlight an urgent need for healthcare services optimization for patients with cardiovascular diseases in the COVID-19 era.

How Did the Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect the Outcomes of the Patients with Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases in Lithuania?

Background and objectives: the COVID-19 pandemic globally caused more than 18 million deaths over the period of 2020-2021. Although inflammatory rheumatic diseases (RD) are generally associated with premature mortality, it is not yet clear whether RD patients are at a greater risk for COVID-19-related mortality. The aim of our study was to evaluate mortality and causes of death in a retrospective inflammatory RD patient cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic years. Methods: We identified patients with a first-time diagnosis of inflammatory RD and followed them up during the pandemic years of 2020-2021. Death rates, and sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Results: We obtained data from 11,636 patients that had been newly diagnosed with inflammatory RD and followed up until the end of 2021 or their death. The mean duration of the follow-up was 5.5 years. In total, 1531 deaths occurred between 2013 and 2021. The prevailing causes of death in the prepandemic period were cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and diseases of the respiratory system. In the pandemic years, cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms remained the two most common causes of death, with COVID-19 in third place. The SMR of the total RD cohort was 0.83. This trend was observed in rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthropathy patients. The SMR in the group of connective-tissue diseases and vasculitis was higher at 0.93, but did not differ from that of the general population. The excess of deaths in the RD cohort during the pandemic period was negative (-27.2%), meaning that RD patients endured the pandemic period better than the general population did. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic did not influence the mortality of RD patients. Strict lockdown measures, social distancing, and early vaccination were the main factors that resulted in reduced mortality in this cohort during the pandemic years.

Frequency and Type of Outpatient Visits for Patients With Cardiovascular Ambulatory-Care Sensitive Conditions During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Subsequent Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Because the impact of changes in how outpatient care was delivered during the COVID-19 pandemic is uncertain, we designed this study to examine the frequency and type of outpatient visits between March 1, 2019 to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic) and from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 (pandemic) and specifically compared outcomes after virtual versus in-person outpatient visits during the pandemic. Methods and Results Population-based retrospective cohort study of all 3.8 million adults in Alberta, Canada. We examined all physician visits and 30- and 90-day outcomes, with a focus on those adults with the cardiovascular ambulatory-care sensitive conditions heart failure, hypertension, and diabetes. Our primary outcome was emergency department visit or hospitalization, evaluated using survival analysis accounting for competing risk of death. Although in-person outpatient visits decreased by 38.9% in the year after March 1, 2020 (10 142 184 versus 16 592 599 in the prior year), the introduction of virtual visits (7 152 147; 41.4% of total) meant that total outpatient visits increased by 4.1% in the first year of the pandemic for Albertan adults. Outpatient visit frequency (albeit 41.4% virtual, 58.6% in-person) and prescribing patterns were stable in the first year after pandemic onset for patients with the cardiovascular ambulatory-care sensitive conditions we examined, but laboratory test frequency declined by 20% (serum creatinine) to 47% (glycosylated hemoglobin). In the first year of the pandemic, virtual outpatient visits were associated with fewer subsequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations (compared with in-person visits) for patients with heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85-0.96] at 30 days and 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00] at 90 days), hypertension (aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85-0.91] and 0.93 [95% CI, 0.91-0.95] at 30 and 90 days), or diabetes (aHR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93] and 0.93 [95% CI, 0.91-0.95] at 30 and 90 days). Conclusions The adoption and rapid uptake of virtual outpatient care during the COVID-19 pandemic did not negatively impact frequency of follow-up, prescribing, or short-term outcomes, and could have potentially positively impacted some of these for adults with heart failure, diabetes, or hypertension in a setting where there was an active reimbursement policy for virtual visits. Given declines in laboratory monitoring and screening activities, further research is needed to evaluate whether long-term outcomes will differ.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on liver disease-related mortality rates in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The pandemic has resulted in an increase of deaths not directly related to COVID-19 infection. We aimed to use a national death dataset to determine the impact of the pandemic on people with liver disease in the USA, focusing on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

Using data from the National Vital Statistic System from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) platform and ICD-10 codes, we identified deaths associated with liver disease. We evaluated observed vs. predicted mortality for 2020-2021 based on trends from 2010-2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analysis.

RESULTS

Among 626,090 chronic liver disease-related deaths between 2010 and 2021, Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for ALD dramatically increased between 2010-2019 and 2020-2021 (annual percentage change [APC] 3.5% to 17.6%, p <0.01), leading to a higher observed ASMR (per 100,000 persons) than predicted for 2020 (15.67 vs. 13.04) and 2021 (17.42 vs. 13.41). ASMR for NAFLD also increased during the pandemic (APC: 14.5%), whereas the rates for hepatitis B and C decreased. Notably, the ASMR rise for ALD was most pronounced in non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Alaska Indians/Native Americans (APC: 11.7%, 10.8%, 18.0%, all p <0.05), with similar but less critical findings for NAFLD, whereas rates were steady for non-Hispanic Asians throughout 2010-2021 (APC: 4.9%). The ASMR rise for ALD was particularly severe for the 25-44 age group (APC: 34.6%, vs. 13.7% and 12.6% for 45-64 and ≥65, all p <0.01), which were also all higher than pre-COVID-19 rates (all p <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

ASMRs for ALD and NAFLD increased at an alarming rate during the COVID-19 pandemic with the largest disparities among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The pandemic has led to an increase of deaths directly and indirectly related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. As shown in this study, age-standardised mortality rates for alcohol-associated liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease substantially increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and far exceeded expected levels predicted from past trends, especially among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations. However, much of this increase was not directly related to COVID-19. Therefore, for the ongoing pandemic as well as its recovery phase, adherence to regular monitoring and care for people with chronic liver disease should be prioritised and awareness should be raised among patients, care providers, healthcare systems, and public health policy makers.

The Past Is so Present: Understanding COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among African American Adults Using Qualitative Data

BACKGROUND

African Americans (AAs) are disproportionately affected by structural and social determinants of health, resulting in greater risks of exposure to and deaths from COVID-19. Structural and social determinants of health feed vaccine hesitancy and worsen health disparities.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aims to explore vaccine attitudes and intentions among program participants, understand the role of an African American faith-based wellness program in COVID-19 awareness and vaccine uptake, and solicit potential solutions for this deep-rooted public health problem.

METHODS

Data were collected through 21 in-depth interviews among individuals involved within a community-based wellness program. Sixteen phone and five in-person interviews were conducted with church leaders, lifestyle coaches, and program participants. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and inductively and thematically analyzed by three researchers.

FINDINGS

Live Well by Faith (LWBF) acted as a trusted information source for COVID-19 resources for the AA community. Services provided by Live Well by Faith included enrolling community members for vaccines, negotiating vaccine provision to and facilitating the establishment of vaccine clinics at AA churches, and connecting community members to healthcare providers. Despite the role Live Well by Faith played, VH was a significant concern due, in part, to historical mistrust of government and pharmaceutical companies conducting unethical healthcare research among Black populations. Other factors included uncertainty about vaccination (vaccines' safety, efficacy, and necessity), social media misinformation, and political affiliation. Participants expressed the need for government to commit resources towards addressing historical factors and building trust with minority populations.

CONCLUSION

Resource targeting programs such as Live Well by Faith that engage faith and community leaders in co-designed shared and culturally grounded interventions can help restore and strengthen trust in vaccines and governments and reduce vaccine hesitancy.

The contribution of research to racial health equity? Blame and responsibility in navigating the status quo of anti-black systemic racism

Thirty-seven years ago, the Secretary's Task Force on Black and Minority Health called attention to a "national paradox" of persistent Black-White health disparities despite overall health improvements for the nation (HHS, 1985). Subsequent updates to the "Heckler Report" came to the same conclusion; Black Americans continued to exhibit poorer health in comparison to White Americans (Satcher et al., 2005). Current population health statistics demonstrate Black-White health disparities comparable to 1985 (AHRQ, 2018; Shiels et al., 2021; Wall et al., 2018). Although psychological, behavioral, social, and economic factors all contribute to Black-White differences in health, there is a noticeable increase in discussions about the importance of systemic racism in producing racial health disparities. This article addresses three questions relevant to research on racism and the health of Black Americans: (1) Why has academic public health research on racism failed to reduce racial health disparities? (2) What can academic public health scientists do differently to reduce the impact of systemic racism on inequities among Black and White Americans? (3) What can Black Americans do in the face of present-day anti-Black systemic racism? We argue that to convert the vision of health equity into a visible reality, health equity research scientists must move beyond discussion, observation, and description. We also argue that to demonstrate progress in reducing racial health disparities, health equity scientists will need to work much more directly on eradicating racism as a fundamental cause of health differences between Black and White Americans. As scientists, the challenge we face is how to accomplish this mission without leaving the realm of science. Racism is a social determinant of Black health and social determinants are political problems. Political problems require political solutions.

Changes in all-cause and cause-specific mortality during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Minnesota: population-based study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in unprecedented increases in mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. To better understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in the state of Minnesota, U.S.A., we characterize the changes in the causes of death during 2020 (COVID-19 period), compared to 2018-2019 (baseline period), assessing for differences across ages, races, ethnicities, sexes, and geographic characteristics.

METHODS

Longitudinal population-based study using Minnesota death certificate data, 2018-2020. Using Poisson regression models adjusted for age and sex, we calculated all-cause and cause-specific (by underlying causes of death) mortality rates per 100,000 Minnesotans, the demographics of the deceased, and years of life lost (YLL) using the Chiang's life table method in 2020 relative to 2018-2019.

RESULTS

We identified 89,910 deaths in 2018-2019 and 52,030 deaths in 2020. The mean daily mortality rate increased from 123.1 (SD 11.7) in 2018-2019 to 144.2 (SD 22.1) in 2020. COVID-19 comprised 9.9% of deaths in 2020. Other categories of causes of death with significant increases in 2020 compared to 2018-2019 included assault by firearms (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.34-2.11), accidental poisonings (RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.37-1.61), malnutrition (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.17-1.87), alcoholic liver disease (RR, 95% CI 1.14-1.40), and cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.50). Mortality rates due to COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes were higher among racial and ethnic minority groups, older adults, and non-rural residents.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a 17% increase in the death rate in Minnesota relative to 2018-2019, driven by both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes. As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third year, it is imperative to examine and address the factors contributing to excess mortality in the short-term and monitor for additional morbidity and mortality in the years to come.

Excess deaths from Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 pandemic has indirect impacts on patients with chronic medical conditions, which may increase mortality risks for various non-COVID-19 causes. This study updates excess death statistics for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD) up to 2022 and evaluates their demographic and spatial disparities in the USA.

METHODS

This is an ecological time-series analysis of AD and PD mortality in the USA from January 2018 to March 2022. Poisson log-linear regressions were utilised to fit the weekly death data. Excess deaths were calculated with the difference between the observed and expected deaths under a counterfactual scenario of pandemic absence.

RESULTS

From March 2020 to March 2022, we observed 41,115 and 10,328 excess deaths for AD and PD, respectively. The largest percentage increases in excess AD and PD deaths were found in the initial pandemic wave. For people aged ≥85 years, excess mortalities of AD and PD (per million persons) were 3946.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2954.3, 4892.3) and 624.3 (95% CI: 369.4, 862.5), which were about 23 and 9 times higher than those aged 55-84 years, respectively. Females had a three-time higher excess mortality of AD than males (182.6 vs. 67.7 per million persons). The non-Hispanic Black people experienced larger increases in AD or PD deaths (excess percentage: 31.8% for AD and 34.6% for PD) than the non-Hispanic White population (17.1% for AD and 14.7% for PD).

CONCLUSION

Under the continuing threats of COVID-19, efforts should be made to optimise health care capacity for patients with AD and PD.

Racial Disparity in Oxygen Saturation Measurements by Pulse Oximetry: Evidence and Implications

The pulse oximeter is a ubiquitous clinical tool used to estimate blood oxygen concentrations. However, decreased accuracy of pulse oximetry in patients with dark skin tones has been demonstrated since as early as 1985. Most commonly, pulse oximeters may overestimate the true oxygen saturation in individuals with dark skin tones, leading to higher rates of occult hypoxemia (i.e., clinically unrecognized low blood oxygen saturation). Overestimation of oxygen saturation in patients with dark skin tones has serious clinical implications, as these patients may receive insufficiently rigorous medical care when pulse oximeter measurements suggest that their oxygen saturation is higher than the true value. Recent studies have linked pulse oximeter inaccuracy to worse clinical outcomes, suggesting that pulse oximeter inaccuracy contributes to known racial health disparities. The magnitude of device inaccuracy varies by pulse oximeter manufacturer, sensor type, and arterial oxygen saturation. The underlying reasons for decreased pulse oximeter accuracy for individuals with dark skin tones may be related to failure to control for increased absorption of red light by melanin during device development and insufficient inclusion of individuals with dark skin tones during device calibration. Inadequate regulatory standards for device approval may also play a role in decreased accuracy. Awareness of potential pulse oximeter limitations is an important step for providers and may encourage the consideration of additional clinical information for management decisions. Ultimately, stricter regulatory requirements for oximeter approval and increased manufacturer transparency regarding device performance are required to mitigate this racial bias.

Public Awareness of and Support for the Use of Wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring: A Community Survey in Louisville, Kentucky

The majority of sewer systems in the United States and other countries are operated by public utilities. In the absence of any regulation, the public perception of wastewater monitoring for population health biomarkers is an important consideration for a public utility commission when allocating resources for this purpose. We conducted a survey in August 2021 as part of an ongoing COVID-19 community prevalence study in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY, US. The survey comprised seven questions about wastewater awareness and privacy concerns and was sent to approximately 35 000 households randomly distributed within the county. A total of 1220 adults were involved in the probability sample, and data from 981 respondents were used in the analysis. A total of 2444 adults additionally responded to the convenience sample, and data from 1751 respondents were used in the analysis. The samples were weighted to obtain estimates representative of all adults in the county. Public awareness of tracking the virus that causes COVID-19 in sewers was low. Opinions strongly support the public disclosure of monitoring results. Responses showed that people more strongly supported measurements in the largest areas (>50 000 households), typically representing population levels found in a large community wastewater treatment plant. Those with a history of COVID-19 infection were more likely to support highly localized monitoring. Understanding wastewater surveillance strategies and privacy concern thresholds requires an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of public opinion for continued success and effective public health monitoring.

Trends in mortality from alcohol, opioid, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings by sex, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity for the United States 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

The ongoing opioid epidemic and increases in alcohol-related mortality are key public health concerns in the USA, with well-documented inequalities in the degree to which groups with low and high education are affected. This study aimed to quantify disparities over time between educational and racial and ethnic groups in sex-specific mortality rates for opioid, alcohol, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings in the USA.

METHODS

The 2000-2019 Multiple Cause of Death Files from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) were used alongside population counts from the Current Population Survey 2000-2019. Alcohol, opioid, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings were assigned using ICD-10 codes. Sex-stratified generalized least square regression models quantified differences between educational and racial and ethnic groups and changes in educational inequalities over time.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2019, there was a 6.4-fold increase in opioid poisoning deaths, a 4.6-fold increase in combined alcohol and opioid poisoning deaths, and a 2.1-fold increase in alcohol poisoning deaths. Educational inequalities were observed for all poisoning outcomes, increasing over time for opioid-only and combined alcohol and opioid mortality. For non-Hispanic White Americans, the largest educational inequalities were observed for opioid poisonings and rates were 7.5 (men) and 7.2 (women) times higher in low compared to high education groups. Combined alcohol and opioid poisonings had larger educational inequalities for non-Hispanic Black men and women (relative to non-Hispanic White), with rates 8.9 (men) and 10.9 (women) times higher in low compared to high education groups.

CONCLUSIONS

For all types of poisoning, our analysis indicates wide and increasing gaps between those with low and high education with the largest inequalities observed for opioid-involved poisonings for non-Hispanic Black and White men and women. This study highlights population sub-groups such as individuals with low education who may be at the highest risk of increasing mortality from combined alcohol and opioid poisonings. Thereby the findings are crucial for the development of targeted public health interventions to reduce poisoning mortality and the socioeconomic inequalities related to it.