Plasma steroid concentrations reflect acute disease severity and normalise during recovery in people hospitalised with COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

Endocrine systems are disrupted in acute illness, and symptoms reported following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are similar to those found with clinical hormone deficiencies. We hypothesised that people with severe acute COVID-19 and with post-COVID symptoms have glucocorticoid and sex hormone deficiencies.

DESIGN/PATIENTS

Samples were obtained for analysis from two UK multicentre cohorts during hospitalisation with COVID-19 (International Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Consortium/World Health Organisation [WHO] Clinical Characterization Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections in the UK study), and at follow-up 5 months after hospitalisation (Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study).

MEASUREMENTS

Plasma steroids were quantified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Steroid concentrations were compared against disease severity (WHO ordinal scale) and validated symptom scores. Data are presented as geometric mean (SD).

RESULTS

In the acute cohort (n = 239, 66.5% male), plasma cortisol concentration increased with disease severity (cortisol 753.3 [1.6] vs. 429.2 [1.7] nmol/L in fatal vs. least severe, p < .001). In males, testosterone concentrations decreased with severity (testosterone 1.2 [2.2] vs. 6.9 [1.9] nmol/L in fatal vs. least severe, p < .001). In the follow-up cohort (n = 198, 62.1% male, 68.9% ongoing symptoms, 165 [121-192] days postdischarge), plasma cortisol concentrations (275.6 [1.5] nmol/L) did not differ with in-hospital severity, perception of recovery, or patient-reported symptoms. Male testosterone concentrations (12.6 [1.5] nmol/L) were not related to in-hospital severity, perception of recovery or symptom scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating glucocorticoids in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 reflect acute illness, with a marked rise in cortisol and fall in male testosterone. These findings are not observed 5 months from discharge. The lack of association between hormone concentrations and common post-COVID symptoms suggests steroid insufficiency does not play a causal role in this condition.

Delayed mucosal anti-viral responses despite robust peripheral inflammation in fatal COVID-19

BACKGROUND

While inflammatory and immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection in peripheral blood are extensively described, responses at the upper respiratory mucosal site of initial infection are relatively poorly defined. We sought to identify mucosal cytokine/chemokine signatures that distinguished COVID-19 severity categories, and relate these to disease progression and peripheral inflammation.

METHODS

We measured 35 cytokines and chemokines in nasal samples from 274 patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Analysis considered the timing of sampling during disease, as either the early (0-5 days post-symptom onset) or late (6-20 days post-symptom onset).

RESULTS

Patients that survived severe COVID-19 showed IFN-dominated mucosal immune responses (IFN-γ, CXCL10 and CXCL13) early in infection. These early mucosal responses were absent in patients that would progress to fatal disease despite equivalent SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Mucosal inflammation in later disease was dominated by IL-2, IL-10, IFN-γ, and IL-12p70, which scaled with severity but did not differentiate patients who would survive or succumb to disease. Cytokines and chemokines in the mucosa showed distinctions from responses evident in the peripheral blood, particularly during fatal disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Defective early mucosal anti-viral responses anticipate fatal COVID-19 but are not associated with viral load. Early mucosal immune responses may define the trajectory of severe COVID-19.

Increase of Severe Pulmonary Infections in Adults Caused by M1UK Streptococcus pyogenes, Central Scotland, UK

We characterized the epidemiology, host-pathogen characteristics, and outcomes of severe adult pulmonary Streptococcus pyogenes infections that coincided with a high community caseload in central Scotland, UK. The pulmonary infections had high illness and death rates and were associated with socioeconomic deprivation, influenza A co-infection, and the M1_UK lineage of S. pyogenes.

A Survey of Orthopedic Surgical Management of Pressure Ulcer-Related Pelvic Osteomyelitis

Pressure-ulcer related pelvic osteomyelitis is managed with little high-quality evidence. We undertook an international survey of orthopedic surgical management, covering diagnostic parameters, multidisciplinary input, and surgical approaches (indications, timing, wound closure, and adjunctive therapies). This identified areas of consensus and disagreement, representing a starting point for future discussion and research.

GWAS and meta-analysis identifies 49 genetic variants underlying critical COVID-19

Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations2. Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group3. Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling (JAK1), monocyte-macrophage activation and endothelial permeability (PDE4A), immunometabolism (SLC2A5 and AK5), and host factors required for viral entry and replication (TMPRSS2 and RAB2A).

Comorbidities, multimorbidity and COVID-19

The influence of comorbidities on COVID-19 outcomes has been recognized since the earliest days of the pandemic. But establishing causality and determining underlying mechanisms and clinical implications has been challenging-owing to the multitude of confounding factors and patient variability. Several distinct pathological mechanisms, not active in every patient, determine health outcomes in the three different phases of COVID-19-from the initial viral replication phase to inflammatory lung injury and post-acute sequelae. Specific comorbidities (and overall multimorbidity) can either exacerbate these pathological mechanisms or reduce the patient's tolerance to organ injury. In this Review, we consider the impact of specific comorbidities, and overall multimorbidity, on the three mechanistically distinct phases of COVID-19, and we discuss the utility of host genetics as a route to causal inference by eliminating many sources of confounding. Continued research into the mechanisms of disease-state interactions will be crucial to inform stratification of therapeutic approaches and improve outcomes for patients.

Outcome of COVID-19 in hospitalised immunocompromised patients: An analysis of the WHO ISARIC CCP-UK prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Immunocompromised patients may be at higher risk of mortality if hospitalised with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared with immunocompetent patients. However, previous studies have been contradictory. We aimed to determine whether immunocompromised patients were at greater risk of in-hospital death and how this risk changed over the pandemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We included patients > = 19 years with symptomatic community-acquired COVID-19 recruited to the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK prospective cohort study. We defined immunocompromise as immunosuppressant medication preadmission, cancer treatment, organ transplant, HIV, or congenital immunodeficiency. We used logistic regression to compare the risk of death in both groups, adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, vaccination, and comorbidities. We used Bayesian logistic regression to explore mortality over time. Between 17 January 2020 and 28 February 2022, we recruited 156,552 eligible patients, of whom 21,954 (14%) were immunocompromised. In total, 29% (n = 6,499) of immunocompromised and 21% (n = 28,608) of immunocompetent patients died in hospital. The odds of in-hospital mortality were elevated for immunocompromised patients (adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CI [1.39, 1.50], p < 0.001). Not all immunocompromising conditions had the same risk, for example, patients on active cancer treatment were less likely to have their care escalated to intensive care (adjusted OR 0.77, 95% CI [0.7, 0.85], p < 0.001) or ventilation (adjusted OR 0.65, 95% CI [0.56, 0.76], p < 0.001). However, cancer patients were more likely to die (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI [1.87, 2.15], p < 0.001). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidities, and vaccination status. As the pandemic progressed, in-hospital mortality reduced more slowly for immunocompromised patients than for immunocompetent patients. This was particularly evident with increasing age: the probability of the reduction in hospital mortality being less for immunocompromised patients aged 50 to 69 years was 88% for men and 83% for women, and for those >80 years was 99% for men and 98% for women. The study is limited by a lack of detailed drug data prior to admission, including steroid doses, meaning that we may have incorrectly categorised some immunocompromised patients as immunocompetent.

CONCLUSIONS

Immunocompromised patients remain at elevated risk of death from COVID-19. Targeted measures such as additional vaccine doses, monoclonal antibodies, and nonpharmaceutical preventive interventions should be continually encouraged for this patient group.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 66726260.

Changing Incidence and Characteristics of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Infections in Scotland and Comparison With Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Incidence (2011 to 2019)

Background

An increase in infections with nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) has been noted globally, and their incidence has overtaken that of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBc) in many countries. Using data from a national reference laboratory, we aimed to determine if this trend could be observed in Scotland.

Methods

We undertook a retrospective review of all NTM isolates received by the Scottish Mycobacteria Reference Laboratory (SMRL) over 9 years from 2011 to 2019 inclusive. Clinical episodes were defined as per 2017 British Thoracic Society and 2020 American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society/European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases/Infectious Diseases Society of America NTM guidelines. These rates were compared with Scottish tuberculosis rates over the same period.

Results

Of 8552 NTM isolates from 4586 patients in 2011 to 2019, 7739 (90.5%) were considered clinically relevant. These represented 2409 episodes of NTM infection, with M. avium, M. intracellulare, and M. abscessus complex being most common. A total of 1953 (81.1%) were pulmonary NTM infection episodes from 1470 patients and 456 extrapulmonary episodes from 370 patients. We estimated a rise in incidence from 3.4 to 6.5 per 100 000 person-years (2011-2019 inclusive), with an increase in NTM incidence over MTBc incidence in Scotland by 2017.

Conclusions

The incidence of NTM infection in Scotland has overtaken MTBc incidence. NTM infection leads to a costly health care burden, possibly as much as UK£1.47 million (US$ and €1.73 million) annually. We recommend standardization of isolate referral with clinical surveillance and implementation of agreed standards of care delivered through multidisciplinary teams. This would improve diagnosis and patient management as well as assessment of diagnostics and novel treatments through clinical trials.

Does autonomous macrophage-driven inflammation promote alveolar damage in COVID-19?

SARS-CoV-2 has caused devastating effects with over 550 million infections by July 2022 and approximately 6.4 million deaths [1]. Societal and economic impacts will reverberate for years, with continuous evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it persistently spreads through the human population as exemplified by reduced activity of vaccines and monoclonals against Omicron BA.4 or BA.5 subvariants [2]. A greater understanding of pathogenesis and more tailored therapeutic approaches are therefore essential.

Systematic comparison of ranking aggregation methods for gene lists in experimental results

MOTIVATION

A common experimental output in biomedical science is a list of genes implicated in a given biological process or disease. The gene lists resulting from a group of studies answering the same, or similar, questions can be combined by ranking aggregation methods to find a consensus or a more reliable answer. Evaluating a ranking aggregation method on a specific type of data before using it is required to support the reliability since the property of a dataset can influence the performance of an algorithm. Such evaluation on gene lists is usually based on a simulated database because of the lack of a known truth for real data. However, simulated datasets tend to be too small compared to experimental data and neglect key features, including heterogeneity of quality, relevance and the inclusion of unranked lists.

RESULTS

In this study, a group of existing methods and their variations that are suitable for meta-analysis of gene lists are compared using simulated and real data. Simulated data were used to explore the performance of the aggregation methods as a function of emulating the common scenarios of real genomic data, with various heterogeneity of quality, noise level and a mix of unranked and ranked data using 20 000 possible entities. In addition to the evaluation with simulated data, a comparison using real genomic data on the SARS-CoV-2 virus, cancer (non-small cell lung cancer) and bacteria (macrophage apoptosis) was performed. We summarize the results of our evaluation in a simple flowchart to select a ranking aggregation method, and in an automated implementation using the meta-analysis by information content algorithm to infer heterogeneity of data quality across input datasets.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The code for simulated data generation and running edited version of algorithms: https://github.com/baillielab/comparison_of_RA_methods. Code to perform an optimal selection of methods based on the results of this review, using the MAIC algorithm to infer the characteristics of an input dataset, can be downloaded here: https://github.com/baillielab/maic. An online service for running MAIC: https://baillielab.net/maic.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Comparison of suspected and confirmed internal EVD-related infections: a prospective multi-centre U.K. observational study

Background

Diagnosis of internal external ventricular drain (EVD)-related infections (iERI) is an area of diagnostic difficulty. Empiric treatment is often initiated on clinical suspicion. There is limited guidance around antimicrobial management of confirmed versus suspected iERI.

Methods

Data on patients requiring EVD insertion were collected from 21 neurosurgical units in the United Kingdom from 2014 to 2015. Confirmed iERI was defined as clinical suspicion of infection with positive cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture and/or Gram stain. Cerebrospinal fluid, blood, and clinical parameters and antimicrobial management were compared between the 2 groups. Mortality and Modified Rankin Scores were compared at 30 days post-EVD insertion.

Results

Internal EVD-related infection was suspected after 46 of 495 EVD insertions (9.3%), more common after an emergency insertion. Twenty-six of 46 were confirmed iERIs, mostly due to Staphylococci (16 of 26). When confirmed and suspected infections were compared, there were no differences in CSF white cell counts or glucose concentrations, nor peripheral blood white cell counts or C-reactive protein concentrations. The incidence of fever, meningism, and seizures was also similar, although altered consciousness was more common in people with confirmed iERI. Broad-spectrum antimicrobial usage was prevalent in both groups with no difference in median duration of therapy (10 days [interquartile range {IQR}, 7–24.5] for confirmed cases and 9.5 days [IQR, 5.75–14] for suspected, P = 0.3). Despite comparable baseline characteristics, suspected iERI was associated with lower mortality and better neurological outcomes.

Conclusions

Suspected iERI could represent sterile inflammation or lower bacterial load leading to false-negative cultures. There is a need for improved microbiology diagnostics and biomarkers of bacterial infection to permit accurate discrimination and improve antimicrobial stewardship.

Defining resistance and tolerance traits in Covid-19: towards a stratified medicine approach

Successful host defence against infectious disease involves resistance (reduce pathogen load) and tolerance (reduce tissue damage associated with pathogen presence). Integration of clinical, immunologic, genetic and therapeutic discoveries has identified defects in both of these responses in the progression from SARS-CoV-2 infection to life-threatening coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) lung injury. Early after infection with SARS-CoV-2, resistance can be compromised by a failed type 1 interferon (IFN-I) response, due to direct viral antagonism of induction and signalling, deleterious host genetic variants (IFNAR2, IFNA10, TYK2 and PLSCR1), and neutralizing auto-antibodies directed against IFN-I (predominantly IFN-α). Later in the disease, after pathogen sensing has activated a pro-inflammatory response, a failure to appropriately regulate this response compromises tolerance resulting in virus-independent immunopathology involving the lung and reticuloendothelial system. Monocytes are activated in the periphery (involving M-CSF, GM-CSF, IL-6, NLRP1 inflammasomes, TYK2 and afucosylated anti-spike IgG) then recruited to the lung (involving CCR2::MCP-3/MCP-1 and C5a::C5aR1 axes) as pro-inflammatory monocyte-derived macrophages, resulting in inflammatory lung injury. Phenotypic and genotypic heterogeneity is apparent in all these responses, identifying 'treatable traits' (therapeutically relevant components of inter-individual variation) which could be exploited to achieve a stratified medicine approach to Covid-19. Overall, Covid-19 pathogenesis re-affirms the importance of resistance in surviving an infectious disease and highlights that tolerance is also a central pillar of host defence in humans and can be beneficially modified using host-directed therapies.

ISARIC-COVID-19 dataset: A Prospective, Standardized, Global Dataset of Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 dataset is one of the largest international databases of prospectively collected clinical data on people hospitalized with COVID-19. This dataset was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic by a network of hospitals that collect data using the ISARIC-World Health Organization Clinical Characterization Protocol and data tools. The database includes data from more than 705,000 patients, collected in more than 60 countries and 1,500 centres worldwide. Patient data are available from acute hospital admissions with COVID-19 and outpatient follow-ups. The data include signs and symptoms, pre-existing comorbidities, vital signs, chronic and acute treatments, complications, dates of hospitalization and discharge, mortality, viral strains, vaccination status, and other data. Here, we present the dataset characteristics, explain its architecture and how to gain access, and provide tools to facilitate its use.

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2-4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes-including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)-in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease.

Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol

PURPOSE

To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

METHODS

Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups.

RESULTS

76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions.

CONCLUSION

Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN66726260.

Heterogeneity In Staphylococcus aureus Bacteraemia Clinical Trials Complicates Interpretation Of Findings

We systematically evaluated randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) for Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). There was intertrial heterogeneity in cohort characteristics, including bacteremia source, complicated SAB, and comorbidities. Reporting of cohort characteristics was itself variable, including bacteremia source and illness severity. Selection bias was introduced by exclusion criteria relating to comorbidities, illness severity, infection types, and source control. Mortality was lower in RCT control arms compared with observational cohorts. Differences in outcome definitions impedes meta-analysis. These issues complicate the interpretation and application of SAB RCT results. The value of these trials should be maximized by a standardized approach to recruitment, definitions, and reporting.

Procalcitonin Is Not a Reliable Biomarker of Bacterial Coinfection in People With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Undergoing Microbiological Investigation at the Time of Hospital Admission

Admission procalcitonin measurements and microbiology results were available for 1040 hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (from 48 902 included in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium World Health Organization Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study). Although procalcitonin was higher in bacterial coinfection, this was neither clinically significant (median [IQR], 0.33 [0.11-1.70] ng/mL vs 0.24 [0.10-0.90] ng/mL) nor diagnostically useful (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.56 [95% confidence interval, .51-.60]).

Distinct clinical symptom patterns in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an analysis of 59,011 patients in the ISARIC-4C study

COVID-19 is clinically characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. However, it is the clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms which influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making. In this study, we applied clustering techniques to a large prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 to identify clinically meaningful sub-phenotypes. We obtained structured clinical data on 59,011 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 25,477 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 33,534 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in 4,445 cases recruited to a separate study of community cases. Unsupervised clustering identified distinct sub-phenotypes. First, a core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea, which co-occurred with additional symptoms in three further patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were also identified, alongside a sub-phenotype of patients reporting few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom sub-phenotypes were highly consistent in replication analysis within the ISARIC-4C study. Similar patterns were externally verified in patients from a study of self-reported symptoms of mild disease. The large scale of the ISARIC-4C study enabled robust, granular discovery and replication. Clinical interpretation is necessary to determine which of these observations have practical utility. We propose that four sub-phenotypes are usefully distinct from the core symptom group: gastro-intestinal disease, productive cough, confusion, and pauci-symptomatic presentations. Importantly, each is associated with an in-hospital mortality which differs from that of patients with core symptoms.

Implementation of corticosteroids in treatment of COVID-19 in the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: prospective, cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dexamethasone was the first intervention proven to reduce mortality in patients with COVID-19 being treated in hospital. We aimed to evaluate the adoption of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 in the UK after the RECOVERY trial publication on June 16, 2020, and to identify discrepancies in care.

METHODS

We did an audit of clinical implementation of corticosteroids in a prospective, observational, cohort study in 237 UK acute care hospitals between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, restricted to patients aged 18 years or older with proven or high likelihood of COVID-19, who received supplementary oxygen. The primary outcome was administration of dexamethasone, prednisolone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN66726260.

FINDINGS

Between June 17, 2020, and April 14, 2021, 47 795 (75·2%) of 63 525 of patients on supplementary oxygen received corticosteroids, higher among patients requiring critical care than in those who received ward care (11 185 [86·6%] of 12 909 vs 36 415 [72·4%] of 50 278). Patients 50 years or older were significantly less likely to receive corticosteroids than those younger than 50 years (adjusted odds ratio 0·79 [95% CI 0·70-0·89], p=0·0001, for 70-79 years; 0·52 [0·46-0·58], p<0·0001, for >80 years), independent of patient demographics and illness severity. 84 (54·2%) of 155 pregnant women received corticosteroids. Rates of corticosteroid administration increased from 27·5% in the week before June 16, 2020, to 75-80% in January, 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Implementation of corticosteroids into clinical practice in the UK for patients with COVID-19 has been successful, but not universal. Patients older than 70 years, independent of illness severity, chronic neurological disease, and dementia, were less likely to receive corticosteroids than those who were younger, as were pregnant women. This could reflect appropriate clinical decision making, but the possibility of inequitable access to life-saving care should be considered.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health Research and UK Medical Research Council.

Intestinal Protein Characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 Entry Molecules ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) and Fatal COVID-19 Infection

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 contributes to morbidity and mortality mainly as a result of immune-pathology in the lungs. Recent data has shown multi-system involvement with widespread viral tropism. Here we present a detailed intestinal protein characterisation of SARS-Cov-2 entry molecules ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease ([IBD]; ulcerative colitis [UC] and Crohn's disease [CD]) with age- and sex-matched non-IBD controls, and in those with fatal COVID-19 infection. In our dataset, ACE2 and TMPRSS2 displayed a membrane enterocyte staining in the ileum (due to presence of brush border/microvilli) in contrast to a cytoplasmic pattern in the colon. We also showed a high ACE2/low TMPRSS2 expression pattern in the ileum with a reverse trend in the colon. In UC, colonic ACE2 and TMPRSS2 are cytoplasmic in nature, with significantly higher ACE2 staining intensity compared to non-IBD controls. In inflamed and unaffected IBD mucosa, ileal and colonic enterocyte ACE2 and TMPRSS2 expressions are not modified in the histologic presence of inflammation. We observed immune cells within the lamina propria that expressed ACE2 and TMPRSS2, at higher frequencies in IBD when compared to non-IBD controls. These were identified as plasma cells with multiple myeloma oncogene 1/interferon regulatory factor 4 (MUM1/IRF4) expression. We further analysed the gut histology of six fatal COVID-19 cases, with no difference in colonic and ileal ACE2/TMRPSS2 staining (compared to non-IBD controls) and identified ACE2 + lamina propria plasma cells. Of interest, in this COVID-19 cohort, there was no histologic evidence gut inflammation despite known evidence of viral tropism within the enterocytes. Our data provides evidence for tissue expression of entry molecules ACE2 and TMPRSS2 including a close apposition to plasma cells - both pointing towards a role of the gut in the antecedent immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Tissue Proteomic Analysis Identifies Mechanisms and Stages of Immunopathology in Fatal COVID-19

Immunopathology occurs in the lung and spleen in fatal coronavirus disease (COVID-19), involving monocytes/macrophages and plasma cells. Antiinflammatory therapy reduces mortality, but additional therapeutic targets are required. We aimed to gain mechanistic insight into COVID-19 immunopathology by targeted proteomic analysis of pulmonary and splenic tissues. Lung parenchymal and splenic tissue was obtained from 13 postmortem examinations of patients with fatal COVID-19. Control tissue was obtained from cancer resection samples (lung) and deceased organ donors (spleen). Protein was extracted from tissue by phenol extraction. Olink multiplex immunoassay panels were used for protein detection and quantification. Proteins with increased abundance in the lung included MCP-3, antiviral TRIM21, and prothrombotic TYMP. OSM and EN-RAGE/S100A12 abundance was correlated and associated with inflammation severity. Unsupervised clustering identified "early viral" and "late inflammatory" clusters with distinct protein abundance profiles, and differences in illness duration before death and presence of viral RNA. In the spleen, lymphocyte chemotactic factors and CD8A were decreased in abundance, and proapoptotic factors were increased. B-cell receptor signaling pathway components and macrophage colony stimulating factor (CSF-1) were also increased. Additional evidence for a subset of host factors (including DDX58, OSM, TYMP, IL-18, MCP-3, and CSF-1) was provided by overlap between 1) differential abundance in spleen and lung tissue; 2) meta-analysis of existing datasets; and 3) plasma proteomic data. This proteomic analysis of lung parenchymal and splenic tissue from fatal COVID-19 provides mechanistic insight into tissue antiviral responses, inflammation and disease stages, macrophage involvement, pulmonary thrombosis, splenic B-cell activation, and lymphocyte depletion.

Acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK Study: a prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study investigated adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and hypothesized that risk factors for AKI would include comorbidities and non-White race.

METHODS

A prospective multicentre cohort study was performed using patients admitted to 254 UK hospitals with COVID-19 between 17 January 2020 and 5 December 2020.

RESULTS

Of 85 687 patients, 2198 (2.6%) received acute kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Of 41 294 patients with biochemistry data, 13 000 (31.5%) had biochemical AKI: 8562 stage 1 (65.9%), 2609 stage 2 (20.1%) and 1829 stage 3 (14.1%). The main risk factors for KRT were chronic kidney disease (CKD) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.41: 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.81], male sex (aOR 2.43: 2.18-2.71) and Black race (aOR 2.17: 1.79-2.63). The main risk factors for biochemical AKI were admission respiratory rate >30 breaths per minute (aOR 1.68: 1.56-1.81), CKD (aOR 1.66: 1.57-1.76) and Black race (aOR 1.44: 1.28-1.61). There was a gradated rise in the risk of 28-day mortality by increasing severity of AKI: stage 1 aOR 1.58 (1.49-1.67), stage 2 aOR 2.41 (2.20-2.64), stage 3 aOR 3.50 (3.14-3.91) and KRT aOR 3.06 (2.75-3.39). AKI rates peaked in April 2020 and the subsequent fall in rates could not be explained by the use of dexamethasone or remdesivir.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI is common in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and it is associated with a heightened risk of mortality. Although the rates of AKI have fallen from the early months of the pandemic, high-risk patients should have their kidney function and fluid status monitored closely.

Infected deep vein thrombophlebitis in people who inject drugs: missed opportunities and potential for alternative antimicrobial approaches

Infected deep vein thrombophlebitis (i-DVT) in people who inject drugs (PWID) is a clinically challenging but poorly characterised disease. We undertook a retrospective observational study of 70 PWID presenting acutely with i-DVT to improve the clinical and microbiological characterisation of this disease. i-DVT was frequently associated with bacteraemia (59.1% patients with blood cultures obtained), groin abscesses (in 34.3%; of which 54.2% required surgical drainage), and septic pulmonary emboli (38.6%) requiring anticoagulation. Network analysis identified a cluster of patients presenting with respiratory symptoms but lacking typical DVT symptoms, more likely to have septic pulmonary emboli. A microbiologic diagnosis was frequently achieved (70%). Causative pathogens were predominantly gram-positive (S. aureus and streptococci, especially anginosus group), whereas gram-negative pathogens were identified very infrequently (in 6.1% of microbiological diagnoses). This suggests routine empiric therapy against gram-negative bacteria, though commonly administered, is not required. High rates of clinical cure (88.6%) were observed despite the complex nature of infections and independently of the highly variable intravenous and total antimicrobial durations received. There exists a rationale to devise pragmatic approaches to implement novel individualised treatment plans utilising oral antimicrobial therapy for i-DVT. Despite frequent healthcare interactions, opportunities to address HCV treatment and opioid substitution therapy were frequently missed during these acute admissions.

Vitamin D insufficiency in COVID-19 and influenza A, and critical illness survivors: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

The steroid hormone vitamin D has roles in immunomodulation and bone health. Insufficiency is associated with susceptibility to respiratory infections. We report 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) measurements in hospitalised people with COVID-19 and influenza A and in survivors of critical illness to test the hypotheses that vitamin D insufficiency scales with illness severity and persists in survivors.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Plasma was obtained from 295 hospitalised people with COVID-19 (International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC)/WHO Clinical Characterization Protocol for Severe Emerging Infections UK study), 93 with influenza A (Mechanisms of Severe Acute Influenza Consortium (MOSAIC) study, during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic) and 139 survivors of non-selected critical illness (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic). Total 25(OH)D was measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Free 25(OH)D was measured by ELISA in COVID-19 samples.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Vitamin D insufficiency (total 25(OH)D 25-50 nmol/L) and deficiency (<25 nmol/L) were prevalent in COVID-19 (29.3% and 44.4%, respectively), influenza A (47.3% and 37.6%) and critical illness survivors (30.2% and 56.8%). In COVID-19 and influenza A, total 25(OH)D measured early in illness was lower in patients who received IMV (19.6 vs 31.9 nmol/L (p<0.0001) and 22.9 vs 31.1 nmol/L (p=0.0009), respectively). In COVID-19, biologically active free 25(OH)D correlated with total 25(OH)D and was lower in patients who received IMV, but was not associated with selected circulating inflammatory mediators.

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency was present in majority of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 or influenza A and correlated with severity and persisted in critical illness survivors at concentrations expected to disrupt bone metabolism. These findings support early supplementation trials to determine if insufficiency is causal in progression to severe disease, and investigation of longer-term bone health outcomes.

Co-infections, secondary infections, and antimicrobial use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study: a multicentre, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Microbiological characterisation of co-infections and secondary infections in patients with COVID-19 is lacking, and antimicrobial use is high. We aimed to describe microbiologically confirmed co-infections and secondary infections, and antimicrobial use, in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.

METHODS

The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study recruiting inpatients from 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales, conducted by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium. Patients with a confirmed or clinician-defined high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible for inclusion in the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study. For this specific study, we excluded patients with a recorded negative SARS-CoV-2 test result and those without a recorded outcome at 28 days after admission. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected using a prespecified case report form. Organisms considered clinically insignificant were excluded.

FINDINGS

We analysed data from 48 902 patients admitted to hospital between Feb 6 and June 8, 2020. The median patient age was 74 years (IQR 59-84) and 20 786 (42·6%) of 48 765 patients were female. Microbiological investigations were recorded for 8649 (17·7%) of 48 902 patients, with clinically significant COVID-19-related respiratory or bloodstream culture results recorded for 1107 patients. 762 (70·6%) of 1080 infections were secondary, occurring more than 2 days after hospital admission. Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae were the most common pathogens causing respiratory co-infections (diagnosed ≤2 days after admission), with Enterobacteriaceae and S aureus most common in secondary respiratory infections. Bloodstream infections were most frequently caused by Escherichia coli and S aureus. Among patients with available data, 13 390 (37·0%) of 36 145 had received antimicrobials in the community for this illness episode before hospital admission and 39 258 (85·2%) of 46 061 patients with inpatient antimicrobial data received one or more antimicrobials at some point during their admission (highest for patients in critical care). We identified frequent use of broad-spectrum agents and use of carbapenems rather than carbapenem-sparing alternatives.

INTERPRETATION

In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, microbiologically confirmed bacterial infections are rare, and more likely to be secondary infections. Gram-negative organisms and S aureus are the predominant pathogens. The frequency and nature of antimicrobial use are concerning, but tractable targets for stewardship interventions exist.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, and NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.

Characterisation of in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: a prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK.

METHODS

We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80 388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36 367 of 73 197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41 025 of 73 197) being male and 81·0% (59 289 of 73 197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16 579 of 30 416] in males and 48·2% [11 707 of 24 288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10 609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17 752 of 73 197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13 486 of 73 197), and systemic (16·3%, 11 895 of 73 197) complications were the most frequent. Cardiovascular (12·3%, 8973 of 73 197), neurological (4·3%, 3115 of 73 197), and gastrointestinal or liver (0·8%, 7901 of 73 197) complications were also reported.

INTERPRETATION

Complications and worse functional outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are high, even in young, previously healthy individuals. Acute complications are associated with reduced ability to self-care at discharge, with neurological complications being associated with the worst functional outcomes. COVID-19 complications are likely to cause a substantial strain on health and social care in the coming years. These data will help in the design and provision of services aimed at the post-hospitalisation care of patients with COVID-19.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research and the UK Medical Research Council.

Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital.

METHODS

In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260.

FINDINGS

Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in the risk of mortality per 7-week period (odds ratio [OR] 0·68 [95% CI 0·65-0·71]). The higher proportions of patients with severe disease and comorbidities earlier in the first wave (March and April) than in June and July accounted for 10·2% of this reduction. The use of respiratory support changed during the first wave, with gradually increased use of non-invasive ventilation over the first wave. Changes in respiratory support and use of steroids accounted for 22·2%, OR 0·95 (0·94-0·95) of the reduction in in-hospital mortality.

INTERPRETATION

The reduction in in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 during the first wave in the UK was partly accounted for by changes in the case-mix and illness severity. A significant reduction in in-hospital mortality was associated with differences in respiratory support and critical care use, which could partly reflect accrual of clinical knowledge. The remaining improvement in in-hospital mortality is not explained by these factors, and could be associated with changes in community behaviour, inoculum dose, and hospital capacity strain.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council.

A Subgroup of Patients With Hospital-acquired Pneumonia Do Not Require Broad-spectrum Gram-negative Antimicrobial Coverage

Among 200 patients developing hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) outside the intensive care unit, 61% were treated empirically without broad-spectrum Gram-negative coverage, with clinical cure in 69.7%. Lower disease severity markers (systemic inflammatory response syndrome, hypoxia, tachypnoea, neutrophilia) and the absence of diabetes mellitus and prior doxycycline treatment (but not the time to HAP onset) identified patients not requiring broad-spectrum Gram-negative coverage.

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions.

METHODS

We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London).

FINDINGS

74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model.

INTERPRETATION

The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.

What is the recovery rate and risk of long-term consequences following a diagnosis of COVID-19? A harmonised, global longitudinal observational study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Very little is known about possible clinical sequelae that may persist after resolution of acute COVID-19. A recent longitudinal cohort from Italy including 143 patients followed up after hospitalisation with COVID-19 reported that 87% had at least one ongoing symptom at 60-day follow-up. Early indications suggest that patients with COVID-19 may need even more psychological support than typical intensive care unit patients. The assessment of risk factors for longer term consequences requires a longitudinal study linked to data on pre-existing conditions and care received during the acute phase of illness. The primary aim of this study is to characterise physical and psychosocial sequelae in patients post-COVID-19 hospital discharge.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an international open-access prospective, observational multisite study. This protocol is linked with the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) and the WHO's Clinical Characterisation Protocol, which includes patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 during hospitalisation. This protocol will follow-up a subset of patients with confirmed COVID-19 using standardised surveys to measure longer term physical and psychosocial sequelae. The data will be linked with the acute phase data. Statistical analyses will be undertaken to characterise groups most likely to be affected by sequelae of COVID-19. The open-access follow-up survey can be used as a data collection tool by other follow-up studies, to facilitate data harmonisation and to identify subsets of patients for further in-depth follow-up. The outcomes of this study will inform strategies to prevent long-term consequences; inform clinical management, interventional studies, rehabilitation and public health management to reduce overall morbidity; and improve long-term outcomes of COVID-19.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol and survey are open access to enable low-resourced sites to join the study to facilitate global standardised, longitudinal data collection. Ethical approval has been given by sites in Colombia, Ghana, Italy, Norway, Russia, the UK and South Africa. New sites are welcome to join this collaborative study at any time. Sites interested in adopting the protocol as it is or in an adapted version are responsible for ensuring that local sponsorship and ethical approvals in place as appropriate. The tools are available on the ISARIC website (www.isaric.org). PROTOCOL REGISTRATION NUMBER: osf.io/c5rw3/ PROTOCOL VERSION: 3 August 2020 EUROQOL ID: 37035.

Inflammatory profiles across the spectrum of disease reveal a distinct role for GM-CSF in severe COVID-19

While it is now widely accepted that host inflammatory responses contribute to lung injury, the pathways that drive severity and distinguish coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from other viral lung diseases remain poorly characterized. We analyzed plasma samples from 471 hospitalized patients recruited through the prospective multicenter ISARIC4C study and 39 outpatients with mild disease, enabling extensive characterization of responses across a full spectrum of COVID-19 severity. Progressive elevation of levels of numerous inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (including IL-6, CXCL10, and GM-CSF) were associated with severity and accompanied by elevated markers of endothelial injury and thrombosis. Principal component and network analyses demonstrated central roles for IL-6 and GM-CSF in COVID-19 pathogenesis. Comparing these profiles to archived samples from patients with fatal influenza, IL-6 was equally elevated in both conditions whereas GM-CSF was prominent only in COVID-19. These findings further identify the key inflammatory, thrombotic, and vascular factors that characterize and distinguish severe and fatal COVID-19.

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice.

Tissue-Specific Immunopathology in Fatal COVID-19

Rationale: In life-threatening coronavirus disease (COVID-19), corticosteroids reduce mortality, suggesting that immune responses have a causal role in death. Whether this deleterious inflammation is primarily a direct reaction to the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or an independent immunopathologic process is unknown.

Objectives: To determine SARS-CoV-2 organotropism and organ-specific inflammatory responses and the relationships among viral presence, inflammation, and organ injury.

Methods: Tissue was acquired from 11 detailed postmortem examinations. SARS-CoV-2 organotropism was mapped by using multiplex PCR and sequencing, with cellular resolution achieved by in situ viral S (spike) protein detection. Histologic evidence of inflammation was quantified from 37 anatomic sites, and the pulmonary immune response was characterized by using multiplex immunofluorescence.

Measurements and Main Results: Multiple aberrant immune responses in fatal COVID-19 were found, principally involving the lung and reticuloendothelial system, and these were not clearly topologically associated with the virus. Inflammation and organ dysfunction did not map to the tissue and cellular distribution of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and protein between or within tissues. An arteritis was identified in the lung, which was further characterized as a monocyte/myeloid-rich vasculitis, and occurred together with an influx of macrophage/monocyte-lineage cells into the pulmonary parenchyma. In addition, stereotyped abnormal reticuloendothelial responses, including excessive reactive plasmacytosis and iron-laden macrophages, were present and dissociated from viral presence in lymphoid tissues.

Conclusions: Tissue-specific immunopathology occurs in COVID-19, implicating a significant component of the immune-mediated, virus-independent immunopathologic process as a primary mechanism in severe disease. Our data highlight novel immunopathologic mechanisms and validate ongoing and future efforts to therapeutically target aberrant macrophage and plasma-cell responses as well as promote pathogen tolerance in COVID-19.

Histological Evidence of Pulmonary Microthrombosis and Vasculitis in Life-Threatening Respiratory Virus Diseases

Pulmonary microthrombosis and vasculitis occur in fatal coronavirus disease 2019. To determine whether these processes occur in other life-threatening respiratory virus infections, we identified autopsy studies of fatal influenza (n  =  455 patients), severe acute respiratory syndrome ([SARS] n  =  37), Middle East respiratory syndrome (n  =  2), adenovirus (n  =  34), and respiratory syncytial virus (n  =  30). Histological evidence of thrombosis was frequently present in adults with fatal influenza and SARS, with vasculitis also reported.

Dynamic data-driven meta-analysis for prioritisation of host genes implicated in COVID-19

The increasing body of literature describing the role of host factors in COVID-19 pathogenesis demonstrates the need to combine diverse, multi-omic data to evaluate and substantiate the most robust evidence and inform development of therapies. Here we present a dynamic ranking of host genes implicated in human betacoronavirus infection (SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, seasonal coronaviruses). We conducted an extensive systematic review of experiments identifying potential host factors. Gene lists from diverse sources were integrated using Meta-Analysis by Information Content (MAIC). This previously described algorithm uses data-driven gene list weightings to produce a comprehensive ranked list of implicated host genes. From 32 datasets, the top ranked gene was PPIA, encoding cyclophilin A, a druggable target using cyclosporine. Other highly-ranked genes included proposed prognostic factors (CXCL10, CD4, CD3E) and investigational therapeutic targets (IL1A) for COVID-19. Gene rankings also inform the interpretation of COVID-19 GWAS results, implicating FYCO1 over other nearby genes in a disease-associated locus on chromosome 3. Researchers can search and review the gene rankings and the contribution of different experimental methods to gene rank at https://baillielab.net/maic/covid19 . As new data are published we will regularly update the list of genes as a resource to inform and prioritise future studies.

Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium-ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

In-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ISRCTN66726260.

Successful reintroduction of tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibition after treatment of disseminated Lyme borreliosis

The importance of tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) in the human immune response to Borrelia burgdorferi is uncertain. Murine models suggest a critical role, including spirochaete reactivation following TNF-α inhibition. Our case, combined with a review of the clinical and scientific literature, provides reassurance that TNF-α inhibition can be safely reinstituted after treatment of disseminated borreliosis with standard duration antimicrobial chemotherapy.

Developing Novel Host-Based Therapies Targeting Microbicidal Responses in Macrophages and Neutrophils to Combat Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance

Antimicrobial therapy has provided the main component of chemotherapy against bacterial pathogens. The effectiveness of this strategy has, however, been increasingly challenged by the emergence of antimicrobial resistance which now threatens the sustained utility of this approach. Humans and animals are constantly exposed to bacteria and have developed effective strategies to control pathogens involving innate and adaptive immune responses. Impaired pathogen handling by the innate immune system is a key determinant of susceptibility to bacterial infection. However, the essential components of this response, specifically those which are amenable to re-calibration to improve host defense, remain elusive despite extensive research. We provide a mini-review focusing on therapeutic targeting of microbicidal responses in macrophages and neutrophils to de-stress reliance on antimicrobial therapy. We highlight pre-clinical and clinical data pointing toward potential targets and therapies. We suggest that developing focused host-directed therapeutic strategies to enhance "pauci-inflammatory" microbial killing in myeloid phagocytes that maximizes pathogen clearance while minimizing the harmful consequences of the inflammatory response merits particular attention. We also suggest the importance of One Health approaches in developing host-based approaches through model development and comparative medicine in informing our understanding of how to deliver this strategy.

Features of 20 133 UK patients in hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: prospective observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To characterise the clinical features of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United Kingdom during the growth phase of the first wave of this outbreak who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study, and to explore risk factors associated with mortality in hospital.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis.

SETTING

208 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 6 February and 19 April 2020. A case report form developed by ISARIC and WHO was used to collect clinical data. A minimal follow-up time of two weeks (to 3 May 2020) allowed most patients to complete their hospital admission.

PARTICIPANTS

20 133 hospital inpatients with covid-19.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Admission to critical care (high dependency unit or intensive care unit) and mortality in hospital.

RESULTS

The median age of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, or with a diagnosis of covid-19 made in hospital, was 73 years (interquartile range 58-82, range 0-104). More men were admitted than women (men 60%, n=12 068; women 40%, n=8065). The median duration of symptoms before admission was 4 days (interquartile range 1-8). The commonest comorbidities were chronic cardiac disease (31%, 5469/17 702), uncomplicated diabetes (21%, 3650/17 599), non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease (18%, 3128/17 634), and chronic kidney disease (16%, 2830/17 506); 23% (4161/18 525) had no reported major comorbidity. Overall, 41% (8199/20 133) of patients were discharged alive, 26% (5165/20 133) died, and 34% (6769/20 133) continued to receive care at the reporting date. 17% (3001/18 183) required admission to high dependency or intensive care units; of these, 28% (826/3001) were discharged alive, 32% (958/3001) died, and 41% (1217/3001) continued to receive care at the reporting date. Of those receiving mechanical ventilation, 17% (276/1658) were discharged alive, 37% (618/1658) died, and 46% (764/1658) remained in hospital. Increasing age, male sex, and comorbidities including chronic cardiac disease, non-asthmatic chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, liver disease and obesity were associated with higher mortality in hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

ISARIC WHO CCP-UK is a large prospective cohort study of patients in hospital with covid-19. The study continues to enrol at the time of this report. In study participants, mortality was high, independent risk factors were increasing age, male sex, and chronic comorbidity, including obesity. This study has shown the importance of pandemic preparedness and the need to maintain readiness to launch research studies in response to outbreaks.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ISRCTN66726260.

Outcomes, Microbiology and Antimicrobial Usage in Pressure Ulcer-Related Pelvic Osteomyelitis: Messages for Clinical Practice

Introduction: Pressure ulcer-related pelvic osteomyelitis is a relatively under-studied entity in the field of bone infection. We sought to add to the limited evidence base for managing this challenging syndrome.

Methods: Cases were identified retrospectively from a surgical database and hospital discharge codes at a U.K. tertiary centre (2009-2018). Risk factors associated with outcomes were analysed by logistic regression.

Results: We identified 35 patients (mean age 57.4 years), 69% managed with a combined medical and surgical approach, with mean follow-up of 3.7 years from index admission. Treatment failure (requiring further surgery or intravenous antimicrobials) occurred in 71% and eventual ulcer healing in 36%. One-year mortality was 23%. Lack of formal care support on discharge, post-traumatic (asensate) neurological deficit and index CRP (>184mg/L) were associated with treatment failure (p=0.001). Age (>59.5 years), lack of attempted soft tissue coverage, haemoglobin (<111g/L) and albumin (<25g/L) were associated with non-healing ulcers (p=0.003). Superficial wound swabs had low sensitivity and specificity compared to deep bone microbiology. Infection (based on deep bone microbiology from 46 infection episodes) was usually polymicrobial (87%), commonly involving S. aureus, Enterococci, GNB and anaerobes. Antimicrobial duration ranged from 0-103 days (mean 54) and was not associated with subsequent treatment failure.

Conclusions: Attempted soft tissue coverage after surgical debridement, ensuring appropriate support for personal care after discharge and nutritional optimisation could improve outcomes. Superficial wound swabs are uninformative and deep bone sampling should be pursued. Long antimicrobial courses do not improve outcomes. Clinicians should engage patients in anticipatory care planning.

The index case of SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland

Since its identification in December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has infected 125,048 persons globally with cases identified in 118 countries across all continents. We report on the Scottish index case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the virus causing COVID-19.

Challenges in the diagnosis of leptospirosis outwith endemic settings: a Scottish single centre experience

Background Leptospirosis is a zoonotic infection occurring worldwide but endemic in tropical countries. This study describes diagnostic testing for leptospirosis at our institution in Scotland over a 10-year period. Method We identified patients with blood samples referred to the Public Health England reference laboratory for leptospirosis testing between 2006 and 2016. Results A total of 480 samples were sent for IgM ELISA testing with 26 positive results from 14 patients. Two patients met criteria for 'confirmed' leptospirosis (microscopic agglutination test > 1:320 in one case and a positive PCR in the other) and the remaining 12 were 'probable' on the basis of IgM ELISA positivity, though 9 did not have microscopic agglutination testing performed. Nine infections were imported, mostly from Asia and with a history of fresh water exposure. Three co-infections (respiratory syncytial virus, influenza B and Campylobacter sp.) were identified. Conclusions Practical issues with microscopic agglutination testing (insufficient blood sent to reference laboratory) and PCR (travellers returning > 7 days after illness onset) represent challenges to the laboratory confirmation of a clinical diagnosis of leptospirosis. Co-infection and infectious/auto-immune causes of false positive serology should be evaluated.