Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Acute neural effects of fluoxetine on emotional regulation in depressed adolescents

BACKGROUND

Adolescent major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with disrupted processing of emotional stimuli and difficulties in cognitive reappraisal. Little is known however about how current pharmacotherapies act to modulate the neural mechanisms underlying these key processes. The current study therefore investigated the neural effects of fluoxetine on emotional reactivity and cognitive reappraisal in adolescent depression.

METHODS

Thirty-one adolescents with MDD were randomised to acute fluoxetine (10 mg) or placebo. Seventeen healthy adolescents were also recruited but did not receive any treatment for ethical reasons. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), participants viewed aversive images and were asked to either experience naturally the emotional state elicited ('Maintain') or to reinterpret the content of the pictures to reduce negative affect ('Reappraise'). Significant activations were identified using whole-brain analysis.

RESULTS

No significant group differences were seen when comparing Reappraise and Maintain conditions. However, when compared to healthy controls, depressed adolescents on placebo showed reduced visual activation to aversive pictures irrespective of the condition. The depressed adolescent group on fluoxetine showed the opposite pattern, i.e. increased visuo-cerebellar activity in response to aversive pictures, when compared to depressed adolescents on placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that depression in adolescence may be associated with reduced visual processing of aversive imagery and that fluoxetine may act to reduce avoidance of such cues. This could reflect a key mechanism whereby depressed adolescents engage with negative cues previously avoided. Future research combining fMRI with eye-tracking is nonetheless needed to further clarify these effects.

Patellar ligament desmopathy in the horse – a review and comparison to human patellar tendinopathy (‘Jumper’s knee’)

Patellar ligament desmopathy in horses is regarded as an uncommon condition with unclear aetiology. Of the three patellar ligaments in the horse, the intermediate is the one most often diagnosed with desmopathy in horses presenting with chronic lameness. This structure corresponds to the patellar tendon in humans. As diagnostic imaging modalities continuously improve, changes in echogenicity of the patellar ligaments are identified ultrasonographically with increasing frequency. However, disruption of the normal fibre pattern may be present also in patellar ligaments in horses that show no signs of lameness. Similarly, there is a poor correlation between pain and diagnostic imaging findings in human patellar tendinopathy. Consequently, there appears to be a knowledge gap pertaining to normal ultrasonographic variation and diagnostic criteria for disease of the patellar ligaments in horses. Furthermore, local anaesthetic techniques to verify the diagnosis are poorly described, and due to the low number of treated cases, no specific treatment modality can be recommended on a scientific basis. The aim of this paper is to review the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis, diagnosis and management of patellar ligament desmopathy in horses, compare this condition with patellar tendinopathy in humans, and identify areas for further research to increase the diagnostic accuracy in horses. We conclude that there is a profound need for better descriptions of ultrasonographic variation and pathological changes of the equine patellar ligaments. Identification of areas of maximal ligament strain and descriptions of early histopathological changes could render more information on the possible aetiology, preventive measurements and treatment options of desmopathy. Description of regional innervation could aid in development of methods for diagnostic anaesthesia to verify pain originating from the ligaments.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Tailoring interfacial effect in multilayers with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction by helium ion irradiation

We show a method to control magnetic interfacial effects in multilayers with Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction (DMI) using helium (He[Formula: see text]) ion irradiation. We report results from SQUID magnetometry, ferromagnetic resonance as well as Brillouin light scattering results on multilayers with DMI as a function of irradiation fluence to study the effect of irradiation on the magnetic properties of the multilayers. Our results show clear evidence of the He[Formula: see text] irradiation effects on the magnetic properties which is consistent with interface modification due to the effects of the He[Formula: see text] irradiation. This external degree of freedom offers promising perspectives to further improve the control of magnetic skyrmions in multilayers, that could push them towards integration in future technologies.

Neural effects of a single dose of fluoxetine on resting-state functional connectivity in adolescent depression

Fluoxetine is commonly prescribed in adolescent depression, but the neural mechanisms underlying its action remain poorly understood. Here, we used resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the effects of a single dose of fluoxetine vs. placebo in adolescents with major depressive disorder. In contrast with previous studies in adults that have demonstrated an acute effect of antidepressants on activity within the default mode network, a single dose of fluoxetine did not alter activity in this network in adolescent depression. There were unexpected group activity differences in the motor network, which should be clarified in future research.

Feasibility, reproducibility, and clinical implications of the fully automated assessment for global longitudinal strain

Background

Despite of evidence on its usefulness, measurement of global longitudinal strain (GLS) has not been widely accepted as a clinical routine because it requires proficiency and is time-consuming. Automated assessment of GLS may be a solution to these barriers. This study sought to investigate the feasibility, reproducibility, and predictive value of automated strain analysis compared with semi-automated and manual assessment for global longitudinal strain.

Methods

In this validation study, different methods for the assessment of GLS were applied to echocardiograms of 561 asymptomatic people (age 71±5 years) with heart failure (HF) risk factors, recruited from the community. All patients were followed up for new-onset of HF and cardiovascular death. Measurement of GLS was repeated using the same apical images on three different measurement packages as follows: (1) fully automated GLS (AutoStrain), (2) semi-automated GLS (automated, corrected by a trained investigator), and (3) manual GLS (standard manual assessment by a trained investigator). We defined abnormal GLS for discrimination of LV systolic dysfunction using the cut-off of GLS =18% (absolute value).

Results

AutoStrain measurements were feasible in 99.5% of patients. Calculation time for automated (0.5±0.1 min/patient) and semi-automated assessment (2.7±0.6 min/patient) were significantly shorter than that for manual assessment (4.5±1.6 min/patient) (both p&lt;0.001), and the automated assessment showed excellent reproducibility. There was considerable discordance between automated and semi-automated/manual GLS (Figure 1), but normal systolic function was reliable identified. The prediction of cardiovascular events was reliable with automated, semi-automated and manual GLS (Figure 2).

Conclusion

A novel fully automated assessment for GLS is a feasible, rapid, reproducible and clinically applicable means of assessing LV function, and measurements in the normal range predict a favorable outcome.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Effect of acute citalopram on self-referential emotional processing and social cognition in healthy volunteers

BACKGROUND

Depression is characterised by negative views of the self. Antidepressant treatment may remediate negative self-schema through increasing processing of positive information about the self. Changes in affective processing during social interactions may increase expression of prosocial behaviours, improving interpersonal communications.

AIMS

To examine whether acute administration of citalopram is associated with an increase in positive affective learning biases about the self and prosocial behaviour.

METHOD

Healthy volunteers (n = 41) were randomised to either an acute 20 mg dose of citalopram or matched placebo in a between-subjects double-blind design. Participants completed computer-based cognitive tasks designed to measure referential affective processing, social cognition and expression of prosocial behaviours.

RESULTS

Participants administered citalopram made more cooperative choices than those administered placebo in a prisoner's dilemma task (β = 20%, 95% CI: 2%, 37%). Exploratory analyses indicated that participants administered citalopram showed a positive bias when learning social evaluations about a friend (β = 4.06, 95% CI: 0.88, 7.24), but not about the self or a stranger. Similarly, exploratory analyses found evidence of increased recall of positive words and reduced recall of negative words about others (β = 2.41, 95% CI: 0.89, 3.93), but not the self, in the citalopram group.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants administered citalopram showed greater prosocial behaviours, increased positive recall and increased positive learning of social evaluations towards others. The increase in positive affective bias and prosocial behaviours towards others may, at least partially, be a mechanism of antidepressant effect. However, we found no evidence that citalopram influenced self-referential processing.

The OPTIMIZE patient- and family-centered, primary care-based deprescribing intervention for older adults with dementia or mild cognitive impairment and multiple chronic conditions: study protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial

Background

Most individuals with dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have multiple chronic conditions (MCC). The combination leads to multiple medications and complex medication regimens and is associated with increased risk for significant treatment burden, adverse drug events, cognitive changes, hospitalization, and mortality. Optimizing medications through deprescribing (the process of reducing or stopping the use of inappropriate medications or medications unlikely to be beneficial) may improve outcomes for MCC patients with dementia or MCI.

Methods

With input from patients, family members, and clinicians, we developed and piloted a patient-centered, pragmatic intervention (OPTIMIZE) to educate and activate patients, family members, and primary care clinicians about deprescribing as part of optimal medication management for older adults with dementia or MCI and MCC. The clinic-based intervention targets patients on 5 or more medications, their family members, and their primary care clinicians using a pragmatic, cluster-randomized design at Kaiser Permanente Colorado. The intervention has two components: a patient/ family component focused on education and activation about the potential value of deprescribing, and a clinician component focused on increasing clinician awareness about options and processes for deprescribing. Primary outcomes are total number of chronic medications and total number of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs). We estimate that approximately 2400 patients across 9 clinics will receive the intervention. A comparable number of patients from 9 other clinics will serve as wait-list controls. We have > 80% power to detect an average decrease of − 0.70 (< 1 medication). Secondary outcomes include the number of PIM starts, dose reductions for selected PIMs (benzodiazepines, opiates, and antipsychotics), rates of adverse drug events (falls, hemorrhagic events, and hypoglycemic events), ability to perform activities of daily living, and skilled nursing facility, hospital, and emergency department admissions.

Discussion

The OPTIMIZE trial will examine whether a primary care-based, patient- and family-centered intervention educating patients, family members, and clinicians about deprescribing reduces numbers of chronic medications and PIMs for older adults with dementia or MCI and MCC.

Trial registration

NCT03984396. Registered on 13 June 2019

432 Traditional markers of myocardial dysfunction fail to detect marked reductions in physical capacity amoung chemotherapy patients

Methods

95 patients who were due to commence anti-cancer treatment (n = 58 anthracycline chemotherapy for breast cancer; n = 25 Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor and n = 12 allogeneic stem cell transplant for haematological cancers) completed a pre-treatment and follow-up assessment within 6 months of initiating treatment. Changes in echocardiographic measures of LV function (LVEF, GLS), cardiac biomarkers (troponin and BNP) and cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET, VO2peak) were measured.

Results

Of 95 participants who underwent baseline testing, follow-up CPET and echocardiography data was available in 89 participants. LV function was normal prior to treatment (LVEF 61.5 ± 5.9%; GLS -19.4 ± 2.3) but VO2peak (23.4 ± 6.5ml/kg/min) was only 83 ± 21% (range 47-146%) of age-predicted. After treatment, we observed marked reductions in fitness (Δ-2.1 ± 3.7 ml/kg/min or -9 ± 15%, P &lt; 0.001) which was associated with small non-clinically significant changes in LV function (LVEF Δ-2.4 ± 6.4% P = 0.001; GLS Δ-0.5 ± 1.9 P = 0.018). Troponin was increased significantly (4.0 ± 5.5 to 23.5 ± 22.5ng/ml, P &lt; 0.001), with no change in BNP (37.5 ± 31.4 to 32.7 ± 22.0pg/ml, P = 0.87). Current diagnostic criteria for cardiac toxicity were not met in any patient despite some patients developing disabling reductions in functional capacity (VO2peak &lt; 16ml/min/kg).

Conclusion

Despite normal resting LV function prior to commencing treatment VO2peak was below age predicted. Treatment further impaired exercise cardiovascular function with minimal impact on resting measures of LV function. The assessment of cardiovascular function using CPET prior to, and following chemotherapy may be a more sensitive means of identifying patients at increased risk of future heart failure.

European Society of Cardiology: Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2019

AIMS

The 2019 report from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas provides a contemporary analysis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics across 56 member countries, with particular emphasis on international inequalities in disease burden and healthcare delivery together with estimates of progress towards meeting 2025 World Health Organization (WHO) non-communicable disease targets.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this report, contemporary CVD statistics are presented for member countries of the ESC. The statistics are drawn from the ESC Atlas which is a repository of CVD data from a variety of sources including the WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and the World Bank. The Atlas also includes novel ESC sponsored data on human and capital infrastructure and cardiovascular healthcare delivery obtained by annual survey of the national societies of ESC member countries. Across ESC member countries, the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) and diabetes has increased two- to three-fold during the last 30 years making the WHO 2025 target to halt rises in these risk factors unlikely to be achieved. More encouraging have been variable declines in hypertension, smoking, and alcohol consumption but on current trends only the reduction in smoking from 28% to 21% during the last 20 years appears sufficient for the WHO target to be achieved. The median age-standardized prevalence of major risk factors was higher in middle-income compared with high-income ESC member countries for hypertension {23.8% [interquartile range (IQR) 22.5-23.1%] vs. 15.7% (IQR 14.5-21.1%)}, diabetes [7.7% (IQR 7.1-10.1%) vs. 5.6% (IQR 4.8-7.0%)], and among males smoking [43.8% (IQR 37.4-48.0%) vs. 26.0% (IQR 20.9-31.7%)] although among females smoking was less common in middle-income countries [8.7% (IQR 3.0-10.8) vs. 16.7% (IQR 13.9-19.7%)]. There were associated inequalities in disease burden with disability-adjusted life years per 100 000 people due to CVD over three times as high in middle-income [7160 (IQR 5655-8115)] compared with high-income [2235 (IQR 1896-3602)] countries. Cardiovascular disease mortality was also higher in middle-income countries where it accounted for a greater proportion of potential years of life lost compared with high-income countries in both females (43% vs. 28%) and males (39% vs. 28%). Despite the inequalities in disease burden across ESC member countries, survey data from the National Cardiac Societies of the ESC showed that middle-income member countries remain severely under-resourced compared with high-income countries in terms of cardiological person-power and technological infrastructure. Under-resourcing in middle-income countries is associated with a severe procedural deficit compared with high-income countries in terms of coronary intervention, device implantation and cardiac surgical procedures.

CONCLUSION

A seemingly inexorable rise in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes currently provides the greatest challenge to achieving further reductions in CVD burden across ESC member countries. Additional challenges are provided by inequalities in disease burden that now require intensification of policy initiatives in order to reduce population risk and prioritize cardiovascular healthcare delivery, particularly in the middle-income countries of the ESC where need is greatest.

'Desculturización,' urbanization, and nutrition transition among urban Kichwas Indigenous communities residing in the Andes highlands of Ecuador

BACKGROUND

The nutrition transition continues to affect populations throughout the world. The added impact of market integration and urbanization exacerbates the impact of the nutrition transition upon Indigenous populations worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to explore the nutritional concerns of the urban Kichwas community residing in the Andes highlands of Ecuador.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a qualitative study.

METHODS

Eight focus groups were conducted with Kichwas men and women in November 2015 in the Imbabura province of the Andes in Ecuador.

DATA ANALYSIS

Applied thematic analysis was used to analyze findings regarding nutrition.

RESULTS

The participants shared concerns regarding increased intake of fast food, poor meal timing, and a shift in the child's food preferences that rejects traditional foods. They attributed these concerns to urbanization resulting from an increase in dual-income households and a loss of cultural identity.

CONCLUSIONS

Synergistic cultural factors are related to nutritional concerns voiced by the urban Kichwas community.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

Syndemic theory is a useful interpretive lens regarding nutritional trends within the Kichwas communities as they relate to the increased risk of chronic disease.

3224Incremental benefit of left ventricular global longitudinal strain over clinical and left atrial parameters for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation

Background

Although LV hypertrophy and dysfunction are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), AF often occurs in the absence of LV hypertrophy or reduced ejection fraction. The effect of subclinical LV dysfunction on AF has not been fully studied.

Purpose

We sought the association between subclinical LV dysfunction (measured with global longitudinal strain, GLS) and new-onset AF.

Methods

This observational study evaluated 531 consecutive patients (median age, 67 years [interquartile range, 56 to 78]; 56% male), without a history of AF who underwent strain echocardiography after cryptogenic stroke. The CHARGE-AF score was used to calculate the 5-year risk of developing AF. Standard echocardiographic parameters were measured, and speckle-tracking was used to measure LA (reservoir strain, pump strain, and conduit strain) and LV strain (GLS). A strain analysis was conducted using a dedicated software package, using R-R gating. The baseline clinical and echocardiographic parameters of the patients who developed AF and those who did not were compared.

Results

Over 2.5 years of follow-up, 61 patients (11%) had new-onset AF. Patients who developed AF were older, had a higher CHARGE-AF score, larger LA volume, worse LA strain, and worse GLS than those who did not. Areas under the receiver-operating curve for GLS (0.84) was comparable to CHARGE-AF (0.79), LA pump strain (0.83), and LA reservoir strain (0.85). In the nested Cox models, GLS demonstrated an independent and incremental predictive value over the clinical and LA parameters (Figure). Moreover, adding GLS to the combined clinical and LA parameters model resulted in a significantly improved reclassification (net reclassification improvement, 0.32; p=0.016). Importantly, the predictive value of GLS was confirmed in patients with abnormal LA volumes (LA volume index≥34ml/m2) but not in patients with normal LA volumes.

Figure 1

Conclusion

GLS is associated with new-onset AF, especially in patients with abnormal LA volumes. This effect is independent of and incremental to the clinical and LA parameters.

P4377Use of LV Deformation Imaging to predict long term Heart Failure Risk in high risk patients

Background

The increasing prevalence of heart failure (HF), due to hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, obesity, and ageing population demands identification of at-risk subgroup whom we could target on prevention strategies. In a same cohort of patients at risk of HF (70% with CAD), 13% developed new HF hospitalization or death over 4.3 years of follow-up, however, disease management program did not confer any benefit to outcome and LV ejection fraction (EF) was not predictive of progression to HF. Better risk stratification strategies are needed. In this study, we sought whether advanced echo measure on deformation, global longitudinal strain (GLS) would predict HF admission over a long term follow up and thereby define an at-risk group. Aim: To determine which of the LV morphology, function and deformation parameters, best predict new HF admission or HF death in pts at risk but without prior dx of HF.

Method

Echocardiograms (including measurement of LV, size, function, morphology and deformation) were obtained in 431 inpatients (mean age 65±11, 72% male) at risk of HF. LV global longitudinal strain (GLS) and strain rate (GLSR) were measured offline (EchoPac, GE). Long term (9 years) follow up data were obtained via data linkage.

Results

63 pts (15%) reached the end-point of HF admission or HF death. LV deformation showed a univariable association with outcome (Table). In multivariable analysis, including known significant predictors of outcome (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, hypertension), GLS less than 18 remained an independent predictor (Table), in addition to age and DM at baseline. EF and LV mass were not predictors of heart failure.

HR (95% CI) P value HR (95% CI) P value HR (95% CI) P value Age 1.1 (1–1.1) <0.01 1.1 (1–1.1) 0.04 1 (1–1.1) 0.04 Sex 1.0 (0.6–1.7) 0.9 0.8 (0.4–1.8) 0.6 0.8 (0.4–1.8) 0.6 BMI 1.0 (1–1.1) 0.05 1 (0.9–1.1) 0.7 1 (0.9–1.1) 0.7 DM 2.6 (1.6–4.3) <0.01 2.7 (1.4–5.3) <0.01 2.7 (1.4–5.2) 0.04 LVMI 1.0 (1.0–1.0) <0.01 1 (0.9–1.0) 0.7 1 (0.99–1.0) 0.7 Impaired EF, % 1.0 (0.9–1.0) <0.01 1 (0.9–1.0) 0.16 0.97 (0.94–1.0) 0.04 Diastolic dysfunction 2.3 (1.4–3.7) <0.01 0.8 (0.3–1.7) 0.5 0.7 (0.3–1.7) 0.5 GLS 1.3 (1.4–1.2) <0.01 1.1 (1–1.2) 0.07 GLS <18 5.3 (2.8–10.2) <0.01 2.3 (1.1–5.1) 0.04

Conclusion

GLS <18 is independently associated with increasing new onset heart failure admission and HF mortality in patients at risk of HF.

Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years.

RESULTS

At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.

European Society of Cardiology: Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2017

Aims

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Atlas has been compiled by the European Heart Agency to document cardiovascular disease (CVD) statistics of the 56 ESC member countries. A major aim of this 2017 data presentation has been to compare high-income and middle-income ESC member countries to identify inequalities in disease burden, outcomes, and service provision.

Methods and results

The Atlas utilizes a variety of data sources, including the World Health Organization, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and the World Bank to document risk factors, prevalence, and mortality of cardiovascular disease and national economic indicators. It also includes novel ESC-sponsored survey data of health infrastructure and cardiovascular service provision provided by the national societies of the ESC member countries. Data presentation is descriptive with no attempt to attach statistical significance to differences observed in stratified analyses. Important differences were identified between the high-income and middle-income member countries of the ESC with regard to CVD risk factors, disease incidence, and mortality. For both women and men, the age-standardized prevalence of hypertension was lower in high-income countries (18% and 27%) compared with middle-income countries (24% and 30%). Smoking prevalence in men (not women) was also lower (26% vs. 41%) and together these inequalities are likely to have contributed to the higher CVD mortality in middle-income countries. Declines in CVD mortality have seen cancer becoming a more common cause of death in a number of high-income member countries, but in middle-income countries declines in CVD mortality have been less consistent where CVD remains the leading cause of death. Inequalities in CVD mortality are emphasized by the smaller contribution they make to potential years of life lost in high-income countries compared with middle-income countries both for women (13% vs. 23%) and men (20% vs. 27%). The downward mortality trends for CVD may, however, be threatened by the emerging obesity epidemic that is seeing rates of diabetes increasing across all the ESC member countries. Survey data from the National Cardiac Societies showed that rates of cardiac catheterization and coronary artery bypass surgery, as well as the number of specialist centres required to deliver them, were greatest in the high-income member countries of the ESC. The Atlas confirmed that these ESC member countries, where the facilities for the contemporary treatment of coronary disease were best developed, were often those in which declines in coronary mortality have been most pronounced. Economic resources were not the only driver for delivery of equitable cardiovascular health care, as some middle-income ESC member countries reported rates for interventional procedures and device implantations that matched or exceeded the rates in wealthier member countries.

Conclusion

In documenting national CVD statistics, the Atlas provides valuable insights into the inequalities in risk factors, health care delivery, and outcomes of CVD across the ESC member countries. The availability of these data will underpin the ESC's ambitious mission 'to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease' not only in its member countries but also in nation states around the world.