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Broadbent P, Walsh D, Katikireddi SV, Gallagher C, Dundas R, McCartney G. Is Austerity Responsible for the Stalled Mortality Trends Across Many High-Income Countries? A Systematic Review. Int J Soc Determinants Health Health Serv 2024:27551938241255041. [PMID: 38767141 DOI: 10.1177/27551938241255041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2024]
Abstract
This article systematically reviews evidence evaluating whether macroeconomic austerity policies impact mortality, reviewing high-income country data compiled through systematic searches of nine databases and gray literature using pre-specified methods (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020226609). Eligible studies were quantitatively assessed to determine austerity's impact on mortality. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias using ROBINS-I. Synthesis without meta-analysis was conducted due to heterogeneity. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE framework. Of 5,720 studies screened, seven were included, with harmful effects of austerity policies demonstrated in six, and no effect in one. Consistent harmful impacts of austerity were demonstrated for all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality across studies and different austerity measures. Excess mortality was higher in countries with greater exposure to austerity. Certainty of evidence was low. Risk of bias was moderate to critical. A typical austerity dose was associated with 74,090 [-40,632, 188,792] and 115,385 [26,324, 204,446] additional deaths per year. Austerity policies are consistently associated with adverse mortality outcomes, but the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain and may depend on how austerity is implemented (e.g., balance between public spending reductions or tax rises, and distributional consequences). Policymakers should be aware of potential harmful health effects of austerity policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Broadbent
- University of Glasgow MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, UK
| | - David Walsh
- University of Glasgow School of Health and Wellbeing, Glasgow, UK
| | | | | | - Ruth Dundas
- University of Glasgow MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, UK
| | - Gerry McCartney
- University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences, Glasgow, UK
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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2204-2256. [PMID: 38762325 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Revised: 03/29/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2162-2203. [PMID: 38762324 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2024] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. METHODS The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. FINDINGS Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). INTERPRETATION Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:1989-2056. [PMID: 38484753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kopasker D, Bronka P, Thomson RM, Khodygo V, Kromydas T, Meier P, Heppenstall A, Bambra C, Lomax N, Craig P, Richiardi M, Katikireddi SV. Evaluating the influence of taxation and social security policies on psychological distress: A microsimulation study of the UK during the COVID-19 economic crisis. Soc Sci Med 2024; 351:116953. [PMID: 38759385 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.116953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 05/01/2024] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024]
Abstract
Economic determinants are important for population health, but actionable evidence of how policies can utilise these pathways remains scarce. This study employs a microsimulation framework to evaluate the effects of taxation and social security policies on population mental health. The UK economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic provides an informative context involving an economic shock accompanied by one of the strongest discretionary fiscal responses amongst OECD countries. The analytical setup involves a dynamic, stochastic, discrete-time microsimulation model (SimPaths) projecting changes in psychological distress given predicted economic outcomes from a static tax-benefit microsimulation model (UKMOD) based on different policy scenarios. We contrast projections of psychological distress for the working-age population from 2017 to 2025 given the observed policy environment against a counterfactual scenario where pre-crisis policies remained in place. Levels of psychological distress and potential cases of common mental disorders (CMDs) were assessed with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). The UK policy response to the economic crisis is estimated to have prevented a substantial fall (over 12 percentage points, %pt) in the employment rate in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, projected psychological distress increased substantially (CMD prevalence increase >10%pt) under both the observed and the counterfactual policy scenarios. Through economic pathways, the policy response is estimated to have prevented a further 3.4%pt [95%UI 2.8%pt, 4.0%pt] increase in the prevalence of CMDs, approximately 1.2 million cases. Beyond 2021, as employment levels rapidly recovered, psychological distress returned to the pre-pandemic trend. Sustained preventative effects on poverty are estimated, with projected levels 2.1%pt [95%UI 1.8%pt, 2.5%pt] lower in 2025 than in the absence of the observed policy response. The study shows that policies protecting employment during an economic crisis are effective in preventing short-term mental health losses and have lasting effects on poverty levels. This preventative effect has substantial public health benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Kopasker
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK.
| | - Patryk Bronka
- Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis, University of Essex, UK
| | - Rachel M Thomson
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Vladimir Khodygo
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Petra Meier
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Alison Heppenstall
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK; School of Political and Social Sciences, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Clare Bambra
- Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, UK
| | - Nik Lomax
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
| | - Peter Craig
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Matteo Richiardi
- Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis, University of Essex, UK
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Casais G, Guimarães NS, Cortes TR, Pescarini J, Rebouças de Magalhães P, Wells V, de Sousa Filho JF, Delgado Neves DJ, Shimonovich M, Olsen JR, de Carvalho Neto EM, Cooper P, Katikireddi SV, Emanuel L, Andrade RFS, Ferreira Dos Santos G, Barreto ML. Wildfire, deforestation and health in tropical rainforest areas: a scoping review protocol. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e082381. [PMID: 38719283 PMCID: PMC11086528 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-082381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Wildfires and deforestation potentially have direct effects on multiple health outcomes as well as indirect consequences for climate change. Tropical rainforest areas are characterised by high rainfall, humidity and temperature, and they are predominantly found in low-income and middle-income countries. This study aims to synthesise the methods, data and health outcomes reported in scientific papers on wildfires and deforestation in these locations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will carry out a scoping review according to the Joanna Briggs Institute's (JBI) manual for scoping reviews and the framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley, and Levac et al. The search for articles was performed on 18 August 2023, in 16 electronic databases using Medical Subject Headings terms and adaptations for each database from database inception. The search for local studies will be complemented by the manual search in the list of references of the studies selected to compose this review. We screened studies written in English, French, Portuguese and Spanish. We included quantitative studies assessing any human disease outcome, hospitalisation and vital statistics in regions of tropical rainforest. We exclude qualitative studies and quantitative studies whose outcomes do not cover those of interest. The text screening was done by two independent reviewers. Subsequently, we will tabulate the data by the origin of the data source used, the methods and the main findings on health impacts of the extracted data. The results will provide descriptive statistics, along with visual representations in diagrams and tables, complemented by narrative summaries as detailed in the JBI guidelines. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The study does not require an ethical review as it is meta-research and uses published, deidentified secondary data sources. The submission of results for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presentation at scientific and policymakers' conferences is expected. STUDY REGISTRATION Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/pnqc7/).
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Affiliation(s)
- Gustavo Casais
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Fiocruz/BA, Salvador, Brazil
| | | | | | - Julia Pescarini
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Salvador, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Philip Cooper
- Universidad Internacional del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
- St George's, University of London, London, UK
| | | | - Lucas Emanuel
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Fiocruz/BA, Salvador, Brazil
- Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Roberto F S Andrade
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Fiocruz/BA, Salvador, Brazil
- Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Gervasio Ferreira Dos Santos
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Fiocruz/BA, Salvador, Brazil
- Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Fiocruz/BA, Salvador, Brazil
- Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
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7
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Lees J, Crowther J, Hanlon P, Butterly EW, Wild SH, Mair F, Guthrie B, Gillies K, Dias S, Welton NJ, Katikireddi SV, McAllister DA. Participant characteristics and exclusion from phase 3/4 industry funded trials of chronic medical conditions: meta-analysis of individual participant level data. BMJ Med 2024; 3:e000732. [PMID: 38737200 PMCID: PMC11085787 DOI: 10.1136/bmjmed-2023-000732] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 04/05/2024] [Indexed: 05/14/2024]
Abstract
Objectives To assess whether age, sex, comorbidity count, and race and ethnic group are associated with the likelihood of trial participants not being enrolled in a trial for any reason (ie, screen failure). Design Bayesian meta-analysis of individual participant level data. Setting Industry funded phase 3/4 trials of chronic medical conditions. Participants Participants were identified using individual participant level data to be in either the enrolled group or screen failure group. Data were available for 52 trials involving 72 178 screened individuals of whom 24 733 (34%) were excluded from the trial at the screening stage. Main outcome measures For each trial, logistic regression models were constructed to assess likelihood of screen failure in people who had been invited to screening, and were regressed on age (per 10 year increment), sex (male v female), comorbidity count (per one additional comorbidity), and race or ethnic group. Trial level analyses were combined in Bayesian hierarchical models with pooling across condition. Results In age and sex adjusted models across all trials, neither age nor sex was associated with increased odds of screen failure, although weak associations were detected after additionally adjusting for comorbidity (odds ratio of age, per 10 year increment was 1.02 (95% credibility interval 1.01 to 1.04) and male sex (0.95 (0.91 to 1.00)). Comorbidity count was weakly associated with screen failure, but in an unexpected direction (0.97 per additional comorbidity (0.94 to 1.00), adjusted for age and sex). People who self-reported as black seemed to be slightly more likely to fail screening than people reporting as white (1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)); a weak effect that seemed to persist after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity count (1.05 (0.98 to 1.12)). The between-trial heterogeneity was generally low, evidence of heterogeneity by sex was noted across conditions (variation in odds ratios on log scale of 0.01-0.13). Conclusions Although the conclusions are limited by uncertainty about the completeness or accuracy of data collection among participants who were not randomised, we identified mostly weak associations with an increased likelihood of screen failure for age, sex, comorbidity count, and black race or ethnic group. Proportionate increases in screening these underserved populations may improve representation in trials. Trial registration number PROSPERO CRD42018048202.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Lees
- College of Medical and Veterinary Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jamie Crowther
- College of Medical and Veterinary Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Peter Hanlon
- College of Medical and Veterinary Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Elaine W Butterly
- College of Medical and Veterinary Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Sarah H Wild
- College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Frances Mair
- College of Medical and Veterinary Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Bruce Guthrie
- College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Katie Gillies
- Health Services Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Sofia Dias
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - Nicky J Welton
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - David A McAllister
- College of Medical and Veterinary Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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8
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Irizar P, Taylor H, Kapadia D, Pierce M, Bécares L, Goodwin L, Katikireddi SV, Nazroo J. The prevalence of common mental disorders across 18 ethnic groups in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS). J Affect Disord 2024; 358:42-51. [PMID: 38705522 DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2024.05.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Revised: 03/13/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted mental health in the general population in Britain. Ethnic minority people suffered disproportionately, in terms of health and economic outcomes, which may contribute to poorer mental health. We compare the prevalence of depression and anxiety across 18 ethnic groups in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data (February-November 2021) from 12,161 participants aged 18-60 years old (N with data on outcomes = 11,540 for depression & 11,825 for anxiety), obtained from the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS). Data were weighted to account for selection bias and coverage bias. Weighted regression models examined ethnic differences in depression (Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7). Effect modification analyses explored whether ethnic differences in outcomes were consistent within age and sex sub-groups. RESULTS Compared to White British people, greater odds of anxiety caseness (and greater anxiety symptoms) were observed for Arab (OR = 2.57; 95 % CI = 1.35-4.91), Mixed White and Black Caribbean (1.57; 1.07-2.30), any other Black (2.22, 1.28-3.87) and any other Mixed (1.58; 1.08-2.31) ethnic groups. Lower odds of depression caseness (and lower depressive symptoms) were identified for Chinese (0.63; 0.46-0.85), Black African (0.60; 0.46-0.79), and any other Asian (0.55; 0.42-0.72) ethnic groups. LIMITATIONS Cross-sectional data limits the opportunity to identify changes in ethnic inequalities in mental health over time. CONCLUSIONS We have identified certain ethnic groups who may require more targeted mental health support to ensure equitable recovery post-pandemic. Despite finding lower levels of depression for some ethnic groups, approximately one third of people within each ethnic group met criteria for depression.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia Irizar
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom.
| | - Harry Taylor
- Department of Global Health & Social Medicine, King's College London, United Kingdom
| | - Dharmi Kapadia
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Matthias Pierce
- Division of Psychology and Mental Health, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Laia Bécares
- Department of Global Health & Social Medicine, King's College London, United Kingdom
| | - Laura Goodwin
- The Spectrum Centre for Mental Health Research, Lancaster University, United Kingdom
| | | | - James Nazroo
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
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Jeffrey K, Woolford L, Maini R, Basetti S, Batchelor A, Weatherill D, White C, Hammersley V, Millington T, Macdonald C, Quint JK, Kerr R, Kerr S, Shah SA, Rudan I, Fagbamigbe AF, Simpson CR, Katikireddi SV, Robertson C, Ritchie L, Sheikh A, Daines L. Prevalence and risk factors for long COVID among adults in Scotland using electronic health records: a national, retrospective, observational cohort study. EClinicalMedicine 2024; 71:102590. [PMID: 38623399 PMCID: PMC11016856 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Long COVID is a debilitating multisystem condition. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of long COVID in the adult population of Scotland, and to identify risk factors associated with its development. Methods In this national, retrospective, observational cohort study, we analysed electronic health records (EHRs) for all adults (≥18 years) registered with a general medical practice and resident in Scotland between March 1, 2020, and October 26, 2022 (98-99% of the population). We linked data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory testing and prescribing. Four outcome measures were used to identify long COVID: clinical codes, free text in primary care records, free text on sick notes, and a novel operational definition. The operational definition was developed using Poisson regression to identify clinical encounters indicative of long COVID from a sample of negative and positive COVID-19 cases matched on time-varying propensity to test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Possible risk factors for long COVID were identified by stratifying descriptive statistics by long COVID status. Findings Of 4,676,390 participants, 81,219 (1.7%) were identified as having long COVID. Clinical codes identified the fewest cases (n = 1,092, 0.02%), followed by free text (n = 8,368, 0.2%), sick notes (n = 14,469, 0.3%), and the operational definition (n = 64,193, 1.4%). There was limited overlap in cases identified by the measures; however, temporal trends and patient characteristics were consistent across measures. Compared with the general population, a higher proportion of people with long COVID were female (65.1% versus 50.4%), aged 38-67 (63.7% versus 48.9%), overweight or obese (45.7% versus 29.4%), had one or more comorbidities (52.7% versus 36.0%), were immunosuppressed (6.9% versus 3.2%), shielding (7.9% versus 3.4%), or hospitalised within 28 days of testing positive (8.8% versus 3.3%%), and had tested positive before Omicron became the dominant variant (44.9% versus 35.9%). The operational definition identified long COVID cases with combinations of clinical encounters (from four symptoms, six investigation types, and seven management strategies) recorded in EHRs within 4-26 weeks of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. These combinations were significantly (p < 0.0001) more prevalent in positive COVID-19 patients than in matched negative controls. In a case-crossover analysis, 16.4% of those identified by the operational definition had similar healthcare patterns recorded before testing positive. Interpretation The prevalence of long COVID presenting in general practice was estimated to be 0.02-1.7%, depending on the measure used. Due to challenges in diagnosing long COVID and inconsistent recording of information in EHRs, the true prevalence of long COVID is likely to be higher. The operational definition provided a novel approach but relied on a restricted set of symptoms and may misclassify individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Further research is needed to refine and validate this approach. Funding Chief Scientist Office (Scotland), Medical Research Council, and BREATHE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen Jeffrey
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lana Woolford
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Rishma Maini
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Ashleigh Batchelor
- Patient and Public Contributors, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David Weatherill
- Patient and Public Contributors, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Chris White
- Patient and Public Contributors, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | | | - Jennifer K. Quint
- National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Robin Kerr
- NHS Borders, Melrose, UK
- NHS Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfries, UK
| | - Steven Kerr
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Igor Rudan
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Colin R. Simpson
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NZ
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Lewis Ritchie
- Academic Primary Care, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Luke Daines
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Manca F, Zhang L, Fitzgerald N, Ho F, Innes H, Jani B, Katikireddi SV, McAuley A, Sharp C, Lewsey J. Pharmacological treatments for alcohol dependence: Evidence on uptake, inequalities and comparative effectiveness from a UK population-based cohort. Drug Alcohol Rev 2024. [PMID: 38653552 DOI: 10.1111/dar.13841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Revised: 02/06/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION We assessed the prevalence of prescribing of certain medications for alcohol dependence and the extent of any inequalities in receiving prescriptions for individuals with such a diagnosis. Further, we compared the effectiveness of two of the most prescribed medications (acamprosate and disulfiram) for alcohol dependence and assessed whether there is inequality in prescribing either of them. METHODS We used a nationwide dataset on prescriptions and hospitalisations in Scotland, UK (N = 19,748). We calculated the percentage of patients receiving alcohol dependence prescriptions after discharge, both overall and by socio-economic groups. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the odds of receiving any alcohol-dependence prescription and the comparative odds of receiving acamprosate or disulfiram. Comparative effectiveness in avoiding future alcohol-related hospitalisations (N = 11,239) was assessed using Cox modelling with statistical adjustment for potential confounding. RESULTS Upto 7% of hospitalised individuals for alcohol use disorder received prescriptions for alcohol dependence after being discharged. Least deprived socio-economic groups had relatively more individuals receiving prescriptions. Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence existed, especially across sex and comorbidities: males had 12% (odds ratio [OR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96) and those with a history of mental health hospitalisations had 10% (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98) lower odds of receiving prescriptions after an alcohol-related hospitalisation. Prescribing disulfiram was superior to prescribing acamprosate in preventing alcohol-related hospitalisations (hazard ratio ranged between 0.60 and 0.81 across analyses). Disulfiram was relatively less likely prescribed to those from more deprived areas. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence exists in Scotland with lower prescribing to men and disulfiram prescribed more to those from least deprived areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Manca
- School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Lisong Zhang
- School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Niamh Fitzgerald
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport & Institute for Social Marketing, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom
| | - Frederick Ho
- School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Hamish Innes
- School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Bhautesh Jani
- School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | | | - Andrew McAuley
- School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Clare Sharp
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport & Institute for Social Marketing, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom
| | - Jim Lewsey
- School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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11
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Rhead R, Wels J, Moltrecht B, Shaw RJ, Silverwood R, Zhu J, Hughes A, Chaturvedi N, Demou E, Katikireddi SV, Ploubidis G. Long COVID and financial outcomes: evidence from four longitudinal population surveys. J Epidemiol Community Health 2024:jech-2023-221059. [PMID: 38508701 DOI: 10.1136/jech-2023-221059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Long-term sequelae of COVID-19 (long COVID) include muscle weakness, fatigue, breathing difficulties and sleep disturbance over weeks or months. Using UK longitudinal data, we assessed the relationship between long COVID and financial disruption. METHODS We estimated associations between long COVID (derived using self-reported length of COVID-19 symptoms) and measures of financial disruption (subjective financial well-being, new benefit claims, changes in household income) by analysing data from four longitudinal population studies, gathered during the first year of the pandemic. We employed modified Poisson regression in a pooled analysis of the four cohorts adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic (pre-long COVID) factors. RESULTS Among the 20 112 observations across four population surveys, 13% reported having COVID-19 with symptoms that impeded their ability to function normally-10.7% had such symptoms for <4 weeks (acute COVID-19), 1.2% had such symptoms for 4-12 weeks (ongoing symptomatic COVID-19) and 0.6% had such symptoms for >12 weeks (post-COVID-19 syndrome). We found that post-COVID-19 syndrome was associated with worse subjective financial well-being (adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRRs)=1.57, 95% CI=1.25, 1.96) and new benefit claims (aRRR=1.79, CI=1.27, 2.53). Associations were broadly similar across sexes and education levels. These results were not meaningfully altered when scaled to represent the population by age. CONCLUSIONS Long COVID was associated with financial disruption in the UK. If our findings reflect causal effects, extending employment protection and financial support to people with long COVID may be warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Rhead
- Department of Psychological Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
- University College London, London, UK
- ESRC Centre for Society and Mental Health, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Jacques Wels
- University College London, London, UK
- BE, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | | | - Richard John Shaw
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Jingmin Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alun Hughes
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing at UCL, UCL, London, UK
| | | | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - George Ploubidis
- Centre of Longitudinal Studies, University College London, London, UK
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12
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Höhn A, Lomax N, Rice H, Angus C, Brennan A, Brown D, Cunningham A, Elsenbroich C, Hughes C, Katikireddi SV, McCartney G, Seaman R, Tsuchia A, Meier P. Estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for local authorities in Great Britain and its association with indicators of the inclusive economy: a cross-sectional study. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e076704. [PMID: 38431294 PMCID: PMC10910677 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-076704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Quantifying area-level inequalities in population health can help to inform policy responses. We describe an approach for estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), a comprehensive health expectancy measure, for local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain (GB). To identify potential factors accounting for LA-level QALE inequalities, we examined the association between inclusive economy indicators and QALE. SETTING 361/363 LAs in GB (lower tier/district level) within the period 2018-2020. DATA AND METHODS We estimated life tables for LAs using official statistics and utility scores from an area-level linkage of the Understanding Society survey. Using the Sullivan method, we estimated QALE at birth in years with corresponding 80% CIs. To examine the association between inclusive economy indicators and QALE, we used an open access data set operationalising the inclusive economy, created by the System Science in Public Health and Health Economics Research consortium. RESULTS Population-weighted QALE estimates across LAs in GB were lowest in Scotland (females/males: 65.1 years/64.9 years) and Wales (65.0 years/65.2 years), while they were highest in England (67.5 years/67.6 years). The range across LAs for females was from 56.3 years (80% CI 45.6 to 67.1) in Mansfield to 77.7 years (80% CI 65.11 to 90.2) in Runnymede. QALE for males ranged from 57.5 years (80% CI 40.2 to 74.7) in Merthyr Tydfil to 77.2 years (80% CI 65.4 to 89.1) in Runnymede. Indicators of the inclusive economy accounted for more than half of the variation in QALE at the LA level (adjusted R2 females/males: 50%/57%). Although more inclusivity was generally associated with higher levels of QALE at the LA level, this association was not consistent across all 13 inclusive economy indicators. CONCLUSIONS QALE can be estimated for LAs in GB, enabling further research into area-level health inequalities. The associations we identified between inclusive economy indicators and QALE highlight potential policy priorities for improving population health and reducing health inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Höhn
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Nik Lomax
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Hugh Rice
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Colin Angus
- School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Alan Brennan
- School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Denise Brown
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Anne Cunningham
- School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Corinna Elsenbroich
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Ceri Hughes
- Manchester Institute of Education, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | | - Gerry McCartney
- School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rosie Seaman
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Aki Tsuchia
- School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Petra Meier
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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13
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Amele S, McCabe R, Kibuchi E, Pearce A, Hainey K, Demou E, Irizar P, Kapadia D, Taylor H, Nazroo J, Bécares L, Buchanan D, Henery P, Jayacodi S, Woolford L, Simpson CR, Sheikh A, Jeffrey K, Shi T, Daines L, Tibble H, Almaghrabi F, Fagbamigbe AF, Kurdi A, Robertson C, Pattaro S, Katikireddi SV. Quality of ethnicity data within Scottish health records and implications of misclassification for ethnic inequalities in severe COVID-19: a national linked data study. J Public Health (Oxf) 2024; 46:116-122. [PMID: 37861114 PMCID: PMC10901260 DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdad196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 10/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We compared the quality of ethnicity coding within the Public Health Scotland Ethnicity Look-up (PHS-EL) dataset, and other National Health Service datasets, with the 2011 Scottish Census. METHODS Measures of quality included the level of missingness and misclassification. We examined the impact of misclassification using Cox proportional hazards to compare the risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (hospitalization & death) by ethnic group. RESULTS Misclassification within PHS-EL was higher for all minority ethnic groups [12.5 to 69.1%] compared with the White Scottish majority [5.1%] and highest in the White Gypsy/Traveller group [69.1%]. Missingness in PHS-EL was highest among the White Other British group [39%] and lowest among the Pakistani group [17%]. PHS-EL data often underestimated severe COVID-19 risk compared with Census data. e.g. in the White Gypsy/Traveller group the Hazard Ratio (HR) was 1.68 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 1.03, 2.74] compared with the White Scottish majority using Census ethnicity data and 0.73 [95% CI: 0.10, 5.15] using PHS-EL data; and HR was 2.03 [95% CI: 1.20, 3.44] in the Census for the Bangladeshi group versus 1.45 [95% CI: 0.75, 2.78] in PHS-EL. CONCLUSIONS Poor quality ethnicity coding in health records can bias estimates, thereby threatening monitoring and understanding ethnic inequalities in health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Amele
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TB, UK
| | - Ronan McCabe
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TB, UK
| | - Eliud Kibuchi
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TB, UK
| | - Anna Pearce
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TB, UK
| | - Kirsten Hainey
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TB, UK
| | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8TB, UK
| | - Patricia Irizar
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
| | - Dharmi Kapadia
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
| | - Harry Taylor
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
| | - James Nazroo
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
| | - Laia Bécares
- Department of Global Health & Medicine, King's College London, London WC2B 4BG, UK
| | | | | | | | - Lana Woolford
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
- School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
| | - Karen Jeffrey
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
| | - Ting Shi
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
| | - Luke Daines
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
| | - Holly Tibble
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SS, UK
| | | | - Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK
| | - Amanj Kurdi
- Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0RE, UK
- Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, Hawler Medical University, Kurditsan Region Governorate, Erbil, Iraq
- Department of Public Health Pharmacy and Management, School of Pharmacy, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria 0204, South Africa
| | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow G2 6QE, UK
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK
| | - Serena Pattaro
- Scottish Centre for Administrative Data Research, School of Social Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow EH16 4UX, UK
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14
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Broadbent P, Shen Y, Pearce A, Katikireddi SV. Trends in inequalities in childhood overweight and obesity prevalence: a repeat cross-sectional analysis of the Health Survey for England. Arch Dis Child 2024; 109:233-239. [PMID: 38262695 PMCID: PMC10894838 DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2023-325844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine trends in socio-economic and ethnic inequalities in childhood overweight and obesity in the England between 1995 and 2019 in survey data and to compare these to administrative data. DESIGN Observational repeated cross-sectional study using the Health Survey for England (HSE) and National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP). OUTCOME Age and sex standardised overweight, obesity and overweight including obesity. ANALYSIS Inequalities assessed by parental education, family structure, ethnicity (binary non-white vs white) and area-level Index of Multiple Deprivation. Estimates stratified by age and sex. Trends compared against NCMP data (age 4-5 and 10-11 years). RESULTS Prevalence of childhood overweight including obesity increased from 26.0% in 1995 to 31.7% in 2019, with the highest and fastest growing levels in those aged 11-15 years, rising from 29.7% to 38.0%. Despite a plateau in overall childhood obesity since 2004, differences between groups demonstrated widening inequalities over time. Inequalities widened by area-level deprivation, household educational attainment, household structure and ethnicity driven primarily by increased prevalence among socioeconomically disadvantaged children. For example, the gap between children from households with no qualifications versus degree-level qualifications increased from -1.1% to 13.2%, and the gap between single-parent households and couple households increased from 0.5% to 5.3%. HSE trends in prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity by deprivation quintile were consistent with those in NCMP. CONCLUSION Overall levels of child overweight and obesity increased between 1995 and 2004. Since then, increases in prevalence among less advantaged groups have driven widening of inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Broadbent
- University of Glasgow MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, UK
- NHS Education for Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Yue Shen
- University of Glasgow MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, UK
| | - Anna Pearce
- University of Glasgow MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, UK
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15
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Shi T, Millington T, Robertson C, Jeffrey K, Katikireddi SV, McCowan C, Simpson CR, Woolford L, Daines L, Kerr S, Swallow B, Fagbamigbe A, Vallejos CA, Weatherill D, Jayacodi S, Marsh K, McMenamin J, Rudan I, Ritchie LD, Mueller T, Kurdi A, Sheikh A. Risk of winter hospitalisation and death from acute respiratory infections in Scotland: national retrospective cohort study. J R Soc Med 2024:1410768231223584. [PMID: 38345538 DOI: 10.1177/01410768231223584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/22/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We undertook a national analysis to characterise and identify risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) resulting in hospitalisation during the winter period in Scotland. DESIGN A population-based retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING Scotland. PARTICIPANTS The study involved 5.4 million residents in Scotland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between risk factors and ARI hospitalisation. RESULTS Between 1 September 2022 and 31 January 2023, there were 22,284 (10.9% of 203,549 with any emergency hospitalisation) ARI hospitalisations (1759 in children and 20,525 in adults) in Scotland. Compared with the reference group of children aged 6-17 years, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was higher in children aged 3-5 years (aHR = 4.55; 95% CI: 4.11-5.04). Compared with those aged 25-29 years, the risk of ARI hospitalisation was highest among the oldest adults aged ≥80 years (aHR = 7.86; 95% CI: 7.06-8.76). Adults from more deprived areas (most deprived vs. least deprived, aHR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.57-1.72), with existing health conditions (≥5 vs. 0 health conditions, aHR = 4.84; 95% CI: 4.53-5.18) or with history of all-cause emergency admissions (≥6 vs. 0 previous emergency admissions, aHR = 7.53; 95% CI: 5.48-10.35) were at a higher risk of ARI hospitalisations. The risk increased by the number of existing health conditions and previous emergency admission. Similar associations were seen in children. CONCLUSIONS Younger children, older adults, those from more deprived backgrounds and individuals with greater numbers of pre-existing conditions and previous emergency admission were at increased risk for winter hospitalisations for ARI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ting Shi
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Tristan Millington
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XQ, Scotland, UK
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, G2 6QE, Scotland, UK
| | - Karen Jeffrey
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | | | - Colin McCowan
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9AJ, Scotland, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
- School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand
| | - Lana Woolford
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Luke Daines
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Steven Kerr
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Ben Swallow
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9SS, Scotland, UK
| | - Adeniyi Fagbamigbe
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2ZD, Scotland, UK
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan 200132, Nigeria
| | - Catalina A Vallejos
- MRC Human Genetics Unit, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH4 2XU, Scotland, UK
- The Alan Turing Institute, London, NW1 2DB, UK
| | - David Weatherill
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Sandra Jayacodi
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | | | - Jim McMenamin
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, G2 6QE, Scotland, UK
| | - Igor Rudan
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
| | - Lewis Duthie Ritchie
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2ZD, Scotland, UK
| | - Tanja Mueller
- Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G4 0RE, Scotland, UK
| | - Amanj Kurdi
- Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G4 0RE, Scotland, UK
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Hawler Medical University, Erbil, Iraq
- Division of Public Health Pharmacy and Management, School of Pharmacy, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Ga-Rankuwa, 0208, South Africa
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Al-Kitab University, Kirkuk, Iraq
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK
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16
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Irizar P, Pan D, Taylor H, Martin CA, Katikireddi SV, Kannangarage NW, Gomez S, La Parra Casado D, Srinivas PN, Diderichsen F, Baggaley RF, Nellums LB, Koller TS, Pareek M. Disproportionate infection, hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 in ethnic minority groups and Indigenous Peoples: an application of the Priority Public Health Conditions analytical framework. EClinicalMedicine 2024; 68:102360. [PMID: 38545088 PMCID: PMC10965404 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2023] [Revised: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in disproportionate consequences for ethnic minority groups and Indigenous Peoples. We present an application of the Priority Public Health Conditions (PPHC) framework from the World Health Organisation (WHO), to explicitly address COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses of pandemic potential. This application is supported by evidence that ethnic minority groups were more likely to be infected, implying differential exposure (PPHC level two), be more vulnerable to severe disease once infected (PPHC level three) and have poorer health outcomes following infection (PPHC level four). These inequities are driven by various interconnected dimensions of racism, that compounds with socioeconomic context and position (PPHC level one). We show that, for respiratory viruses, it is important to stratify levels of the PPHC framework by infection status and by societal, community, and individual factors to develop optimal interventions to reduce inequity from COVID-19 and future infectious diseases outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia Irizar
- Faculty of Humanities, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK
| | - Daniel Pan
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
- Leicester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UK
- Department of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, UK
- Development Centre for Population Health, University of Leicester, UK
- Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Harry Taylor
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, King’s College London, UK
| | - Christopher A. Martin
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
- Leicester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UK
- Department of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, UK
- Development Centre for Population Health, University of Leicester, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Rebecca F. Baggaley
- Leicester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UK
- Development Centre for Population Health, University of Leicester, UK
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
| | - Laura B. Nellums
- Lifespan and Population Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, UK
| | | | - Manish Pareek
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
- Leicester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UK
- Department of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, UK
- Development Centre for Population Health, University of Leicester, UK
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17
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Green MA, McKee M, Massey J, Mackenna B, Mehrkar A, Bacon S, Macleod J, Sheikh A, Shah SA, Katikireddi SV. Trends in inequalities in avoidable hospitalisations across the COVID-19 pandemic: a cohort study of 23.5 million people in England. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e077948. [PMID: 38191251 PMCID: PMC10806625 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine whether periods of disruption were associated with increased 'avoidable' hospital admissions and wider social inequalities in England. DESIGN Observational repeated cross-sectional study. SETTING England (January 2019 to March 2022). PARTICIPANTS With the approval of NHS England we used individual-level electronic health records from OpenSAFELY, which covered ~40% of general practices in England (mean monthly population size 23.5 million people). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES We estimated crude and directly age-standardised rates for potentially preventable unplanned hospital admissions: ambulatory care sensitive conditions and urgent emergency sensitive conditions. We considered how trends in these outcomes varied by three measures of social and spatial inequality: neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity and geographical region. RESULTS There were large declines in avoidable hospitalisations during the first national lockdown (March to May 2020). Trends increased post-lockdown but never reached 2019 levels. The exception to these trends was for vaccine-preventable ambulatory care sensitive admissions which remained low throughout 2020-2021. While trends were consistent by each measure of inequality, absolute levels of inequalities narrowed across levels of neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation, Asian ethnicity (compared with white ethnicity) and geographical region (especially in northern regions). CONCLUSIONS We found no evidence that periods of healthcare disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in more avoidable hospitalisations. Falling avoidable hospital admissions has coincided with declining inequalities most strongly by level of deprivation, but also for Asian ethnic groups and northern regions of England.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Alan Green
- Geography & Planning, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | - Jon Massey
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Brian Mackenna
- Medicines and Diagnostics Policy Unit, NHS England, London, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Seb Bacon
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Aziz Sheikh
- Division of Community Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Syed Ahmar Shah
- The University of Edinburgh Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, Edinburgh, UK
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18
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Góes EF, Guimarães JMN, Almeida MDCC, Gabrielli L, Katikireddi SV, Campos AC, Matos SMA, Patrão AL, Oliveira Costa ACD, Quaresma M, Leyland AH, Barreto ML, Dos-Santos-Silva I, Aquino EML. The intersection of race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status: inequalities in breast and cervical cancer mortality in 20,665,005 adult women from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort. Ethn Health 2024; 29:46-61. [PMID: 37642313 DOI: 10.1080/13557858.2023.2245183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES There is limited evidence regarding the impact of race/racism and its intersection with socioeconomic status (SES) on breast and cervical cancer, the two most common female cancers globally. We investigated racial inequalities in breast and cervical cancer mortality and whether SES (education and household conditions) interacted with race/ethnicity. DESIGN The 100 Million Brazilian Cohort data were linked to the Brazilian Mortality Database, 2004-2015 (n = 20,665,005 adult women). We analysed the association between self-reported race/ethnicity (White/'Parda'(Brown)/Black/Asian/Indigenous) and cancer mortality using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, calendar year, education, household conditions and area of residence. Additive and multiplicative interactions were assessed. RESULTS Cervical cancer mortality rates were higher among Indigenous (adjusted Mortality rate ratio = 1.80, 95%CI 1.39-2.33), Asian (1.63, 1.20-2.22), 'Parda'(Brown) (1.27, 1.21-1.33) and Black (1.18, 1.09-1.28) women vs White women. Breast cancer mortality rates were higher among Black (1.10, 1.04-1.17) vs White women. Racial inequalities in cervical cancer mortality were larger among women of poor household conditions, and low education (P for multiplicative interaction <0.001, and 0.02, respectively). Compared to White women living in completely adequate (3-4) household conditions, the risk of cervical cancer mortality in Black women with 3-4, 1-2, and none adequate conditions was 1.10 (1.01-1.21), 1.48 (1.28-1.71), and 2.03 (1.56-2.63), respectively (Relative excess risk due to interaction-RERI = 0.78, 0.18-1.38). Among 'Parda'(Brown) women the risk was 1.18 (1.11-1.25), 1.68 (1.56-1.81), and 1.84 (1.63-2.08), respectively (RERI = 0.52, 0.16-0.87). Compared to high-educated White women, the risk in high-, middle- and low-educated Black women was 1.14 (0.83-1.55), 1.93 (1.57-2.38) and 2.75 (2.33-3.25), respectively (RERI = 0.36, -0.05-0.77). Among 'Parda'(Brown) women the risk was 1.09 (0.91-1.31), 1.99 (1.70-2.33) and 3.03 (2.61-3.52), respectively (RERI = 0.68, 0.48-0.88). No interactions were found for breast cancer. CONCLUSION Low SES magnified racial inequalities in cervical cancer mortality. The intersection between race/ethnicity, SES and gender needs to be addressed to reduce racial health inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emanuelle F Góes
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Joanna M N Guimarães
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Bahia, Brazil
| | | | - Ligia Gabrielli
- Centro de Diabetes e Endocrinologia da Bahia, Secretaria de Saúde do Estado da Bahia, Bahia, Brazil
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | | | - Ana Clara Campos
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Bahia, Brazil
| | | | - Ana Luísa Patrão
- Center for Psychology, Faculty of Psychology and Education Science, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Manuela Quaresma
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Alastair H Leyland
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Bahia, Brazil
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Isabel Dos-Santos-Silva
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Estela M L Aquino
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
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19
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Rhodes S, Demou E, Wilkinson J, Cherrie M, Edge R, Gittins M, Katikireddi SV, Kromydas T, Mueller W, Pearce N, van Tongeren M. Potential contribution of vaccination uptake to occupational differences in risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey. Occup Environ Med 2023; 81:oemed-2023-108931. [PMID: 38124150 PMCID: PMC10850636 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2023-108931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 09/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess variation in vaccination uptake across occupational groups as a potential explanation for variation in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. DESIGN We analysed data from the UK Office of National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey linked to vaccination data from the National Immunisation Management System in England from 1 December 2020 to 11 May 2022. We analysed vaccination uptake and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk by occupational group and assessed whether adjustment for vaccination reduced the variation in risk between occupational groups. RESULTS Estimated rates of triple vaccination were high across all occupational groups (80% or above), but were lowest for food processing (80%), personal care (82%), hospitality (83%), manual occupations (84%) and retail (85%). High rates were observed for individuals working in health (95% for office based, 92% for those in patient-facing roles) and education (91%) and office-based workers not included in other categories (90%). The impact of adjusting for vaccination when estimating relative risks of infection was generally modest (ratio of hazard ratios across all occupational groups reduced from 1.37 to 1.32), but was consistent with the hypothesis that low vaccination rates contribute to elevated risk in some groups. CONCLUSIONS Variation in vaccination coverage might account for a modest proportion of occupational differences in infection risk. Vaccination rates were uniformly very high in this cohort, which may suggest that the participants are not representative of the general population. Accordingly, these results should be considered tentative pending the accumulation of additional evidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Rhodes
- Centre for Biostatistics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jack Wilkinson
- Centre for Biostatistics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Mark Cherrie
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Matthew Gittins
- Centre for Biostatistics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | | - Theocharis Kromydas
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Neil Pearce
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Martie van Tongeren
- Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
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20
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Amele S, Katikireddi SV. Racial disparities in air pollution. Nat Hum Behav 2023; 7:2058-2059. [PMID: 38001314 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01776-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Amele
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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21
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Kromydas T, Demou E, Leyland AH, Katikireddi SV, Wels J. Effect of trade unions on the mental health of UK workers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal analysis using Understanding Society data. Lancet 2023; 402 Suppl 1:S62. [PMID: 37997106 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)02105-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2023] [Revised: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although trade union membership rates have continuously decreased over the past 30 years, about 50% of UK employees are still represented by a union. Yet, studies on the association between collective bargaining and workers' mental health are sparse, especially in the pandemic context. This study examines differences on UK workers' mental health due to trade union presence and membership between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. METHODS In this longitudinal study, we analysed Understanding Society panel data in which the same participants are followed over time. The data concerned individuals aged 16 years and older and were collected biannually before COVID-19 pandemic (Waves 8-10: 2017-2020) and on a more frequent basis during pandemic (all COVID-19 surveys from 2020 [April, May, June, July, September, November] to 2021 [January, March, September] periods). The primary outcome was General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12) caseness (GHQ-12 score ≥4: probability of caseness). Two exposures were used separately: trade union presence and trade union membership, interacting with a binary variable splitting time periods between before and during the pandemic. Our analytical sample included 49 915 observations from 5988 individuals. 3341 (56%) individuals worked in unionised workplaces. We fitted mixed-effects logistic regression models adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, UK residence, educational level, financial situation, workplace size, and survey interview date. We then replicated the analyses including a 3-way interaction with industry. All Understanding Society participants gave written informed consent. Ethics approval was not required. FINDINGS In our sample, approximately 41% were male and 59% were female, and the mean age was 47·2 years (SD 11·4). Comparing pre-pandemic and pandemic periods, we found that the odds of GHQ-12 caseness for those in non-unionised workplaces increased by 45% (odds ratio 1·45, 95% CI 1·17-1·80), whereas in unionised workplaces odds increased by 28% (1·28, 1·05-1·57). When analysis was confined to unionised workplaces, the odds of GHQ-12 caseness for non-union members increased more (1·40, 1·07-1·83) compared with members (1·18, 0·91-1·53); however, with wide CIs. Overall, industry had no modification effect in both exposures. Sensitivity analysis using GHQ-36 as a continuous outcome demonstrated no real change in the patterns of the results. INTERPRETATION The mental health of workers in unionised workplaces appears to have worsened less than the mental health of those in non-unionised workplaces; however, there is insufficient evidence of effect differential by type of industrial sector. Designing policies that encourage and facilitate trade union presence in workplaces should be promoted, as they are likely to mitigate adverse mental health effects in times of extreme uncertainty. FUNDING Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office, Belgian National Scientific Fund.
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Affiliation(s)
- Theocharis Kromydas
- Medical Research Council (MRC)/Chief Scientist Office Social (CSO) and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
| | - Evangelia Demou
- Medical Research Council (MRC)/Chief Scientist Office Social (CSO) and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alastair H Leyland
- Medical Research Council (MRC)/Chief Scientist Office Social (CSO) and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Medical Research Council (MRC)/Chief Scientist Office Social (CSO) and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jacques Wels
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK; METICES Centre, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
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22
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Kopasker D, Katikireddi SV, Santos JV, Richiardi M, Bronka P, Rostila M, Cecchini M, Ali S, Emmert-Fees K, Bambra C, Hoven H, Backhaus I, Balaj M, Eikemo TA. Microsimulation as a flexible tool to evaluate policies and their impact on socioeconomic inequalities in health. Lancet Reg Health Eur 2023; 34:100758. [PMID: 37876527 PMCID: PMC10590730 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/26/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Kopasker
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | | | - João Vasco Santos
- Public Health Unit, ACES Grande Porto V – Porto Ocidental, ARS Norte, Portugal
- MEDCIDS – Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences, University of Porto, Portugal
- CINTESIS - Centre for Health Technology and Services Research, Portugal
| | - Matteo Richiardi
- Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis, University of Essex, UK
| | - Patryk Bronka
- Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis, University of Essex, UK
| | - Mikael Rostila
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Aging Research Center (ARC), Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
| | - Michele Cecchini
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France
| | - Shehzad Ali
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, Canada
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, UK
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Knowledge Translation and HTA in Health Equity, Canada
| | - Karl Emmert-Fees
- School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, LMU Munich, Germany
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Germany
| | - Clare Bambra
- Population Health Sciences Institute, University of Newcastle, UK
| | - Hanno Hoven
- Institute for Occupational and Maritime Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany
- Centre for Global Health Inequalities Research (CHAIN), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Norway
| | - Insa Backhaus
- Centre for Global Health Inequalities Research (CHAIN), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Norway
| | - Mirza Balaj
- Centre for Global Health Inequalities Research (CHAIN), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Norway
| | - Terje Andreas Eikemo
- Centre for Global Health Inequalities Research (CHAIN), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Norway
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23
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Amele S, Kibuchi E, McCabe R, Pearce A, Henery P, Hainey K, Fagbamigbe AF, Kurdi A, McCowan C, Simpson CR, Dibben C, Buchanan D, Demou E, Almaghrabi F, Anghelescu G, Taylor H, Tibble H, Rudan I, Nazroo J, Bécares L, Daines L, Irizar P, Jayacodi S, Pattaro S, Sheikh A, Katikireddi SV. Ethnic inequalities in positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, infection prognosis, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: analysis of 2 years of a record linked national cohort study in Scotland. J Epidemiol Community Health 2023; 77:641-648. [PMID: 37524538 PMCID: PMC10511958 DOI: 10.1136/jech-2023-220501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to estimate ethnic inequalities in risk for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths over time in Scotland. METHODS We conducted a population-based cohort study where the 2011 Scottish Census was linked to health records. We included all individuals ≥ 16 years living in Scotland on 1 March 2020. The study period was from 1 March 2020 to 17 April 2022. Self-reported ethnic group was taken from the census and Cox proportional hazard models estimated HRs for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospitalisations and deaths, adjusted for age, sex and health board. We also conducted separate analyses for each of the four waves of COVID-19 to assess changes in risk over time. FINDINGS Of the 4 358 339 individuals analysed, 1 093 234 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 37 437 hospitalisations and 14 158 deaths occurred. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death among ethnic minority groups was often higher for White Gypsy/Traveller (HR 2.21, 95% CI (1.61 to 3.06)) and Pakistani 2.09 (1.90 to 2.29) groups compared with the white Scottish group. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death following confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test was particularly higher for White Gypsy/Traveller 2.55 (1.81-3.58), Pakistani 1.75 (1.59-1.73) and African 1.61 (1.28-2.03) individuals relative to white Scottish individuals. However, the risk of COVID-19-related death following hospitalisation did not differ. The risk of COVID-19 outcomes for ethnic minority groups was higher in the first three waves compared with the fourth wave. INTERPRETATION Most ethnic minority groups were at increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland, especially White Gypsy/Traveller and Pakistani groups. Ethnic inequalities persisted following community infection but not following hospitalisation, suggesting differences in hospital treatment did not substantially contribute to ethnic inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Amele
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Eliud Kibuchi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Ronan McCabe
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Anna Pearce
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Paul Henery
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow Office, Glasgow, UK
| | - Kirsten Hainey
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
- Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo, Nigeria
| | - Amanj Kurdi
- Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy & Biomedical Sciences (SIPBS), Faculty of Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
- Department of Pharmacology,College of Pharmacy, Hawler Medical University, Erbil, Kurdistan, Iraq
| | - Colin McCowan
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Chris Dibben
- Centre for Research on Environment, Society and Health, School of GeoSciences, Institute of Geography, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Fatima Almaghrabi
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Gina Anghelescu
- Scottish Centre for Administrative Data Research (SCADR), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Harry Taylor
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Holly Tibble
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Igor Rudan
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - James Nazroo
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Laia Bécares
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Luke Daines
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Patricia Irizar
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Sandra Jayacodi
- Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) Representative, Non affiliated, Glasgow, UK
| | - Serena Pattaro
- Scottish Centre for Administrative Data Research (SCADR), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Science Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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24
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Kromydas T, Demou E, Edge R, Gittins M, Katikireddi SV, Pearce N, van Tongeren M, Wilkinson J, Rhodes S. Occupational differences in the prevalence and severity of long-COVID: analysis of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey. Occup Environ Med 2023; 80:545-552. [PMID: 37770179 PMCID: PMC7615205 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2023-108930] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To establish whether prevalence and severity of long-COVID symptoms vary by industry and occupation. METHODS We used Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) data (February 2021-April 2022) of working-age participants (16-65 years). Exposures were industry, occupation and major Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) group. Outcomes were self-reported: (1) long-COVID symptoms and (2) reduced function due to long-COVID. Binary (outcome 1) and ordered (outcome 2) logistic regression were used to estimate odds ratios (OR)and prevalence (marginal means). RESULTS Public facing industries, including teaching and education, social care, healthcare, civil service, retail and transport industries and occupations, had the highest likelihood of long-COVID. By major SOC group, those in caring, leisure and other services (OR 1.44, 95% CIs 1.38 to 1.52) had substantially elevated odds than average. For almost all exposures, the pattern of ORs for long-COVID symptoms followed SARS-CoV-2 infections, except for professional occupations (eg, some healthcare, education, scientific occupations) (infection: OR<1 ; long-COVID: OR>1). The probability of reporting long-COVID for industry ranged from 7.7% (financial services) to 11.6% (teaching and education); whereas the prevalence of reduced function by 'a lot' ranged from 17.1% (arts, entertainment and recreation) to 22%-23% (teaching and education and armed forces) and to 27% (not working). CONCLUSIONS The risk and prevalence of long-COVID differs across industries and occupations. Generally, it appears that likelihood of developing long-COVID symptoms follows likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection, except for professional occupations. These findings highlight sectors and occupations where further research is needed to understand the occupational factors resulting in long-COVID.
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Affiliation(s)
- Theocharis Kromydas
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rhiannon Edge
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Matthew Gittins
- Centre for Biostatistics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Neil Pearce
- Faculty of Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Martie van Tongeren
- Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Thomas Ashton Institute for Risk and Regulatory Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Jack Wilkinson
- Centre for Biostatistics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Sarah Rhodes
- Centre for Biostatistics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
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25
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Lalloo D, Lewsey J, Katikireddi SV, Macdonald EB, Demou E. Cancer risk in information technology workers: a UK Biobank study. Occup Med (Lond) 2023; 73:304-308. [PMID: 37477883 PMCID: PMC10540665 DOI: 10.1093/occmed/kqad070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The information technology (IT) workforce has been growing more rapidly than others, with occupational health (OH) risks of sedentary behaviour, physical inactivity and poor diet, yet studies of their non-communicable disease risk, notably cancer, are lacking. AIMS To investigate cancer risk in IT workers compared to others in employment and the nine major Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) groups. METHODS We evaluated incident diagnosed cancers in the UK Biobank cohort through national cancer registry linkage. Cox proportional hazard regression models, with 15-year follow-up, were used to compare incident cancer risk among IT workers with all other employed participants and with the nine major SOC groups. RESULTS Overall, 10 517 (4%) employed participants were IT workers. Adjusting for confounders, IT workers had a slightly lower cancer incidence compared to all other employed participants (Model 2: hazard ratio = 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-1.01). Compared to the nine major SOC groups, they had a similar (Major Groups 2, 5 and 8) or lower (Major Groups 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9) cancer incidence. CONCLUSIONS Despite their occupational risks of sedentary behaviour, poor diet and physical inactivity, IT workers do not have an increased cancer incidence compared to all other employed participants and the nine major SOC groups. This study paves the way for large, longitudinal health outcome studies of this under-researched and rapidly growing occupational group.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Lalloo
- Healthy Working Lives Group, Clarice Pears Building, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB, UK
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Clarice Pears Building, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB, UK
| | - J Lewsey
- Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Clarice Pears Building, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB, UK
| | - S V Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Clarice Pears Building, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB, UK
| | - E B Macdonald
- Healthy Working Lives Group, Clarice Pears Building, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB, UK
| | - E Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Clarice Pears Building, School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G12 8TB, UK
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26
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Morrison K, Cullen L, James AB, Chua V, Sullivan C, Robertson C, Carruthers J, Wood R, Jeffrey K, MacDonald C, Shah SA, Rudan I, Simpson CR, McCowan C, Vittal Katikireddi S, Grange Z, Ritchie L, Sheikh A. Predictors of incomplete COVID-19 vaccine schedule among adults in Scotland: Two retrospective cohort analyses of the primary schedule and third dose. Vaccine 2023; 41:5863-5876. [PMID: 37598025 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.07.070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2023] [Revised: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vaccination continues to be the key public health measure for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. Certain groups may be at higher risk of incomplete vaccine schedule, which may leave them vulnerable to COVID-19 hospitalisation and death. AIM To identify the sociodemographic and clinical predictors for not receiving a scheduled COVID-19 vaccine after previously receiving one. METHODS We conducted two retrospective cohort studies with ≥3.7 million adults aged ≥18 years in Scotland. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of not receiving a second, and separately a third dose between December 2020 and May 2022. Independent variables included sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS Of 3,826,797 people in the study population who received one dose, 3,732,596 (97.5%) received two doses, and 3,263,153 (86.5%) received all doses available during the study period. The most strongly associated predictors for not receiving the second dose were: being aged 18-29 (reference: 50-59 years; aOR:4.26; 95% confidence interval (CI):4.14-4.37); hospitalisation due to a potential vaccine related adverse event of special interest (AESI) (reference: not having a potential AESI, aOR:3.78; 95%CI: 3.29-4.35); and living in the most deprived quintile (reference: least deprived quintile, aOR:3.24; 95%CI: 3.16-3.32). The most strongly associated predictors for not receiving the third dose were: being 18-29 (reference: 50-59 years aOR:4.44; 95%CI: 4.38-4.49), living in the most deprived quintile (reference: least deprived quintile aOR:2.56; 95%CI: 2.53-2.59), and Black, Caribbean, or African ethnicity (reference: White ethnicity aOR:2.38; 95%CI: 2.30-2.46). Pregnancy, previous vaccination with mRNA-1273, smoking history, individual and household severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positivity, and having an unvaccinated adult in the household were also associated with incomplete vaccine schedule. CONCLUSION We observed several risk factors that predict incomplete COVID-19 vaccination schedule. Vaccination programmes must take immediate action to ensure maximum uptake, particularly for populations vulnerable to severe COVID-19 outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lucy Cullen
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | | | - Vera Chua
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | | | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK; University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Rachael Wood
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Karen Jeffrey
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | | | | | - Igor Rudan
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK; School of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Colin McCowan
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK; School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | - Zoe Grange
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | - Lewis Ritchie
- School of Medicine, Medical Science & Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
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27
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Carrilho TRB, Silva NDJ, Paixão ES, Falcão IR, Fiaccone RL, Rodrigues LC, Katikireddi SV, Leyland AH, Dundas R, Pearce A, Velasquez-Melendez G, Kac G, Silva RDCR, Barreto ML. Maternal and child nutrition programme of investigation within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort: study protocol. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e073479. [PMID: 37673446 PMCID: PMC10496662 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION There is a limited understanding of the early nutrition and pregnancy determinants of short-term and long-term maternal and child health in ethnically diverse and socioeconomically vulnerable populations within low-income and middle-income countries. This investigation programme aims to: (1) describe maternal weight trajectories throughout the life course; (2) describe child weight, height and body mass index (BMI) trajectories; (3) create and validate models to predict childhood obesity at 5 years of age; (4) estimate the effects of prepregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain (GWG) and maternal weight trajectories on adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes and child growth trajectories; (5) estimate the effects of prepregnancy BMI, GWG, maternal weight and interpregnancy BMI changes on maternal and child outcomes in the subsequent pregnancy; and (6) estimate the effects of maternal food consumption and infant feeding practices on child nutritional status and growth trajectories. METHODS AND ANALYSIS Linked data from four different Brazilian databases will be used: the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, the Live Births Information System, the Mortality Information System and the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. To analyse trajectories, latent-growth, superimposition by translation and rotation and broken stick models will be used. To create prediction models for childhood obesity, machine learning techniques will be applied. For the association between the selected exposure and outcomes variables, generalised linear models will be considered. Directed acyclic graphs will be constructed to identify potential confounders for each analysis investigating potential causal relationships. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION This protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committees of the authors' institutions. The linkage will be carried out in a secure environment. After the linkage, the data will be de-identified, and pre-authorised researchers will access the data set via a virtual private network connection. Results will be reported in open-access journals and disseminated to policymakers and the broader public.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thais Rangel Bousquet Carrilho
- Nutritional Epidemiology Observatory, Josué de Castro Institute of Nutrition, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Natanael de Jesus Silva
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Hospital Clínic, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain
| | - Enny Santos Paixão
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, London, UK
| | - Ila Rocha Falcão
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- School of Nutrition, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, BA, Brazil
| | - Rosemeire Leovigildo Fiaccone
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, BA, Brazil
| | - Laura Cunha Rodrigues
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, London, UK
| | | | - Alastair H Leyland
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | - Ruth Dundas
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | - Anna Pearce
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | - Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez
- Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health, Nursing School, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
| | - Gilberto Kac
- Nutritional Epidemiology Observatory, Josué de Castro Institute of Nutrition, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Rita de Cássia Ribeiro Silva
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- School of Nutrition, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, BA, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health, Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, BA, Brazil
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Höhn A, Stokes J, Pollack R, Boyd J, Chueca Del Cerro C, Elsenbroich C, Heppenstall A, Hjelmskog A, Inyang E, Kopasker D, Sonthalia S, Thomson RM, Zia K, Katikireddi SV, Meier P. Systems science methods in public health: what can they contribute to our understanding of and response to the cost-of-living crisis? J Epidemiol Community Health 2023; 77:610-616. [PMID: 37328262 PMCID: PMC10423532 DOI: 10.1136/jech-2023-220435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many complex public health evidence gaps cannot be fully resolved using only conventional public health methods. We aim to familiarise public health researchers with selected systems science methods that may contribute to a better understanding of complex phenomena and lead to more impactful interventions. As a case study, we choose the current cost-of-living crisis, which affects disposable income as a key structural determinant of health. METHODS We first outline the potential role of systems science methods for public health research more generally, then provide an overview of the complexity of the cost-of-living crisis as a specific case study. We propose how four systems science methods (soft systems, microsimulation, agent-based and system dynamics models) could be applied to provide more in-depth understanding. For each method, we illustrate its unique knowledge contributions, and set out one or more options for studies that could help inform policy and practice responses. RESULTS Due to its fundamental impact on the determinants of health, while limiting resources for population-level interventions, the cost-of-living crisis presents a complex public health challenge. When confronted with complexity, non-linearity, feedback loops and adaptation processes, systems methods allow a deeper understanding and forecasting of the interactions and spill-over effects common with real-world interventions and policies. CONCLUSIONS Systems science methods provide a rich methodological toolbox that complements our traditional public health methods. This toolbox may be particularly useful in early stages of the current cost-of-living crisis: for understanding the situation, developing solutions and sandboxing potential responses to improve population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Höhn
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jonathan Stokes
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Roxana Pollack
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jennifer Boyd
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Corinna Elsenbroich
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alison Heppenstall
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Annika Hjelmskog
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Elizabeth Inyang
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Daniel Kopasker
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Shreya Sonthalia
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rachel M Thomson
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Kashif Zia
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Petra Meier
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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29
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Lindsay L, Calvert C, Shi T, Carruthers J, Denny C, Donaghy J, Hopcroft LEM, Hopkins L, Goulding A, McLaughlin T, Moore E, Taylor B, Bhaskaran K, Katikireddi SV, McCabe R, McCowan C, Simpson CR, Robertson C, Sheikh A, Wood R, Stock SJ. Neonatal and maternal outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination: a population-based matched cohort study. Nat Commun 2023; 14:5275. [PMID: 37644002 PMCID: PMC10465539 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40965-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy on neonatal and maternal outcomes informs clinical decision-making. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study to investigate associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and, separately, COVID-19 vaccination just before or during pregnancy and the risk of adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes among women in Scotland with a singleton pregnancy ending at ≥20 weeks gestation. Neonatal outcomes are stillbirth, neonatal death, extended perinatal mortality, preterm birth (overall, spontaneous, and provider-initiated), small-for-gestational age, and low Apgar score. Maternal outcomes are admission to critical care or death, venous thromboembolism, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and pregnancy-related bleeding. We use conditional logistic regression to derive odds ratios adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics (aORs). We find that infection is associated with an increased risk of preterm (aOR=1.36, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.16-1.59) and very preterm birth (aOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.20-3.02), maternal admission to critical care or death (aOR=1.72, 95% CI = 1.39-2.12), and venous thromboembolism (aOR = 2.53, 95% CI = 1.47-4.35). We find no evidence of increased risk for any of our outcomes following vaccination. These data suggest SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy is associated with adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes, and COVID-19 vaccination remains a safe way for pregnant women to protect themselves and their babies against infection.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Clara Calvert
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ting Shi
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | | | - Lisa E M Hopcroft
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- National Services Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | | | - Anna Goulding
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Gloucester, UK
| | | | - Emily Moore
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Bob Taylor
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Krishnan Bhaskaran
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Ronan McCabe
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Colin McCowan
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Rachael Wood
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
| | - Sarah J Stock
- Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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30
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Shaw RJ, Rhead R, Silverwood RJ, Wels J, Zhu J, Hamilton OK, Gessa GD, Bowyer RC, Moltrecht B, Green MJ, Demou E, Pattaro S, Zaninotto P, Boyd A, Greaves F, Chaturvedi N, Ploubidis GB, Katikireddi SV. Associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent economic inactivity and employment status: pooled analyses of five linked longitudinal surveys. medRxiv 2023:2023.07.31.23293422. [PMID: 37662323 PMCID: PMC10473774 DOI: 10.1101/2023.07.31.23293422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/05/2023]
Abstract
Introduction Following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, record numbers of people became economically inactive (i.e., neither working nor looking for work), or non-employed (including unemployed job seekers and economically inactive people). A possible explanation is people leaving the workforce after contracting COVID-19. We investigated whether testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 is related to subsequent economic inactivity and non-employment, among people employed pre-pandemic. Methods The data came from five UK longitudinal population studies held by both the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UK LLC; primary analyses) and the UK Data Service (UKDS; secondary analyses). We pooled data from five long established studies (1970 British Cohort Study, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 1958 National Child Development Study, Next Steps, and Understanding Society). The study population were aged 25-65 years between March 2020 to March 2021 and employed pre-pandemic. Outcomes were economic inactivity and non-employment measured at the time of the last follow-up survey (November 2020 to March 2021, depending on study). For the UK LLC sample (n=8,174), COVID-19 infection was indicated by a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in NHS England records. For the UKDS sample we used self-reported measures of COVID-19 infection (n=13,881). Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) adjusting for potential confounders including sociodemographic variables, pre-pandemic health and occupational class. Results Testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was very weakly associated with economic inactivity (OR 1.08 95%CI 0.68-1.73) and non-employment status (OR 1.09. 95%CI 0.77-1.55) in the primary analyses. In secondary analyses, self-reported test-confirmed COVID-19 was not associated with either economic inactivity (OR 1.01 95%CI 0.70-1.44) or non-employment status (OR 1.03 95%CI 0.79-1.35). Conclusions Among people employed pre-pandemic, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was either weakly or not associated with increased economic inactivity or non-employment. Research on the recent increases in economic inactivity should focus on other potential causes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard J Shaw
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rebecca Rhead
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, London, UK
- Department of Psychological Medicine, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Richard J Silverwood
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jacques Wels
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
- Centre Metices, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, BE
| | - Jingmin Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Olivia Kl Hamilton
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Giorgio Di Gessa
- Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ruth Ce Bowyer
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, School of Life Course & Population Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
- AI For Science & Government, Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
| | - Bettina Moltrecht
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Michael J Green
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Division of Women's Community and Population Health, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Serena Pattaro
- Scottish Centre for Administrative Data Research (SCADR), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Paola Zaninotto
- Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Andy Boyd
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Felix Greaves
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Nish Chaturvedi
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
| | - George B Ploubidis
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, London, UK
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31
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Tolstrup JS, Kruckow S, Becker U, Andersen O, Sawyer SM, Katikireddi SV, Møller SP. Socioeconomic inequalities in alcohol-related harm in adolescents: a prospective cohort study of 68,299 Danish 15-19-year-olds. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 62:102129. [PMID: 37576460 PMCID: PMC10415833 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Evidence shows that similar levels of alcohol consumption lead to greater harm in adults with low socioeconomic position (SEP) compared to high SEP. We investigated if SEP is associated with alcohol-related hospital contacts in adolescents, and whether differences in risk can be explained by differences in levels of alcohol consumption, drinking pattern, and substance use. Methods This is a prospective cohort study of 68,299 participants aged 15-19 years old from the Danish National Youth Cohort 2014. SEP was operationalised as parent educational level, family income and perceived financial strain in the family. Data were linked to national registers and participants were followed up for five years from 2014 to 2019. Outcomes were hospital contacts due to alcohol. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rates (IR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR). Findings During 280,010 person years of follow-up, 872 participants had an alcohol-attributable hospital contact; intoxications (n = 778, 89%) were the most common diagnosis. Low as compared to high SEP was associated with higher IRR of alcohol-attributable hospital contacts for all three SEP measures. The adjusted IRR of harm was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.29-2.33) for elementary school as the highest parent education compared to longer parent education and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.30-1.89) for family financial strain compared to those without financial strain. Adjustment for weekly alcohol intake, drinking pattern and substance use did not substantially change results. Cubic spline analysis of the association between family income and alcohol-attributable hospital contacts revealed a dose-response relationship with decreasing risk of alcohol-related harm with higher income. Interpretation Our findings suggested that alcohol-related harm is more common in socioeconomically disadvantaged adolescents despite similar levels of alcohol consumption, regardless of differences in drinking pattern or substance use. Future preventive strategies should prioritise young adolescents, including those who are most disadvantaged. Funding Tryg Foundation (ID: 153539).
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Affiliation(s)
- Janne S. Tolstrup
- National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sofie Kruckow
- National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ulrik Becker
- National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ove Andersen
- Department of Clinical Research, Copenhagen University Hospital Amager and Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark
- Emergency Department, Copenhagen University Hospital Amager and Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark
| | - Susan M. Sawyer
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Medical Research Council (MRC)/Chief Scientist Office (CSO) Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Sanne Pagh Møller
- National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
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McElroy E, Herrett E, Patel K, Piehlmaier DM, Gessa GD, Huggins C, Green MJ, Kwong ASF, Thompson EJ, Zhu J, Mansfield KE, Silverwood RJ, Mansfield R, Maddock J, Mathur R, Costello RE, Matthews A, Tazare J, Henderson A, Wing K, Bridges L, Bacon S, Mehrkar A, Shaw RJ, Wels J, Katikireddi SV, Chaturvedi N, Tomlinson LA, Patalay P. Living alone and mental health: parallel analyses in UK longitudinal population surveys and electronic health records prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMJ Ment Health 2023; 26:e300842. [PMID: 37562853 PMCID: PMC10577768 DOI: 10.1136/bmjment-2023-300842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND People who live alone experience greater levels of mental illness; however, it is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic had a disproportionately negative impact on this demographic. OBJECTIVE To describe the mental health gap between those who live alone and with others in the UK prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS Self-reported psychological distress and life satisfaction in 10 prospective longitudinal population surveys (LPSs) assessed in the nearest pre-pandemic sweep and three periods during the pandemic. Recorded diagnosis of common and severe mental illnesses between March 2018 and January 2022 in electronic healthcare records (EHRs) within the OpenSAFELY-TPP. FINDINGS In 37 544 LPS participants, pooled models showed greater psychological distress (standardised mean difference (SMD): 0.09 (95% CI: 0.04; 0.14); relative risk: 1.25 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.39)) and lower life satisfaction (SMD: -0.22 (95% CI: -0.30; -0.15)) for those living alone pre-pandemic. This gap did not change during the pandemic. In the EHR analysis of c.16 million records, mental health conditions were more common in those who lived alone (eg, depression 26 (95% CI: 18 to 33) and severe mental illness 58 (95% CI: 54 to 62) more cases more per 100 000). For common mental health disorders, the gap in recorded cases in EHRs narrowed during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS People living alone have poorer mental health and lower life satisfaction. During the pandemic, this gap in self-reported distress remained; however, there was a narrowing of the gap in service use. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS Greater mental health need and potentially greater barriers to mental healthcare access for those who live alone need to be considered in healthcare planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eoin McElroy
- School of Psychology, Ulster University, Coleraine, UK
| | - Emily Herrett
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kishan Patel
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
| | - Dominik M Piehlmaier
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Strategy and Marketing, University of Sussex Business School, Brighton, UK
| | - Giorgio Di Gessa
- Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Charlotte Huggins
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Michael J Green
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Alex S F Kwong
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Division of Psychiatry, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ellen J Thompson
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Jingmin Zhu
- Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kathryn E Mansfield
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rosie Mansfield
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jane Maddock
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
| | - Rohini Mathur
- Centre for Primary Care, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Ruth E Costello
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Anthony Matthews
- Unit of Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - John Tazare
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Alasdair Henderson
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kevin Wing
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Lucy Bridges
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sebastian Bacon
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard John Shaw
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jacques Wels
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Nish Chaturvedi
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
| | - Laurie A Tomlinson
- Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Praveetha Patalay
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies, University College London, London, UK
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Smith MJ, Katikireddi SV, Skivington K, Hilton S. Contextual influences on the role of evidence in e-cigarette recommendations: a multi-method analysis of international and national jurisdictions. Evid Policy 2023; 19:400-422. [PMID: 37529415 PMCID: PMC7614860 DOI: 10.1332/174426421x16711062023280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/03/2023]
Abstract
Background E-cigarette policy has varied across jurisdictions, contrasting with the previous coordinated approach of international tobacco control communities. Aims and objectives A multi-method case study approach was used to understand the role of evidence and external and internal contextual factors in the development of public health recommendations across four purposively selected jurisdictions (WHO, UK, Australia and USA). Methods Informed by Dobrow et al.'s (2004) conceptual framework for context-based evidencebased decision-making, four data sources were drawn upon: 1) 15 public health bodies' e-cigarette recommendation documents, 2) seven development documents produced by the public health bodies, 3) sources of evidence cited in the public health bodies' recommendation documents and 4) 15 qualitative interviews with experts. Thematic analysis and citation analysis were conducted to aid triangulation of evidence. Findings We found a complex interplay between internal and external factors which influence the role and use of evidence in the development of e-cigarette recommendations. For example, recommendation documents' remit (internal factor) was influenced by various external factors such as epidemiology and policy history, with decisions made over time having reshaped the external context. Considering the findings with respect to evidence utilisation, we propose a modified version of Dobrow et al.'s (2004) framework, highlighting the important interplay between internal and external contextual factors. Discussion and conclusion This research suggest internal and external contextual factors mutually interact and influence how evidence is incorporated into recommendations. This dynamic interplay of contextual factors may help explain the why different policy approaches are pursued concerning public health topics, particularly e-cigarettes.
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Green MA, McKee M, Hamilton OK, Shaw RJ, Macleod J, Boyd A, Katikireddi SV. Associations between self-reported healthcare disruption due to covid-19 and avoidable hospital admission: evidence from seven linked longitudinal studies for England. BMJ 2023; 382:e075133. [PMID: 37468148 PMCID: PMC10354595 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-075133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/21/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To examine whether there is an association between people who experienced disrupted access to healthcare during the covid-19 pandemic and risk of an avoidable hospital admission. DESIGN Observational analysis using evidence from seven linked longitudinal cohort studies for England. SETTING Studies linked to electronic health records from NHS Digital from 1 March 2020 to 25 August 2022. Data were accessed using the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration trusted research environment. PARTICIPANTS Individual level records for 29 276 people. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Avoidable hospital admissions defined as emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive and emergency urgent care sensitive conditions. RESULTS 9742 participants (weighted percentage 35%, adjusted for sample structure of longitudinal cohorts) self-reported some form of disrupted access to healthcare during the covid-19 pandemic. People with disrupted access were at increased risk of any (odds ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.39 to 2.34), acute (2.01, 1.39 to 2.92), and chronic (1.80, 1.31 to 2.48) ambulatory care sensitive hospital admissions. For people who experienced disrupted access to appointments (eg, visiting their doctor or an outpatient department) and procedures (eg, surgery, cancer treatment), positive associations were found with measures of avoidable hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS Evidence from linked individual level data shows that people whose access to healthcare was disrupted were more likely to have a potentially preventable hospital admission. The findings highlight the need to increase healthcare investment to tackle the short and long term implications of the pandemic, and to protect treatments and procedures during future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Green
- Geographic Data Science Lab, Department of Geography & Planning, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Martin McKee
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Olivia Kl Hamilton
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Richard J Shaw
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - John Macleod
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- The National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
| | - Andy Boyd
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Kennedy J, Parker M, Seaborne M, Mhereeg M, Walker A, Walker V, Denaxas S, Kennedy N, Katikireddi SV, Brophy S. Healthcare use attributable to COVID-19: a propensity-matched national electronic health records cohort study of 249,390 people in Wales, UK. BMC Med 2023; 21:259. [PMID: 37468884 PMCID: PMC10354936 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02897-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 07/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To determine the extent and nature of changes associated with COVID-19 infection in terms of healthcare utilisation, this study observed healthcare contact 1 to 4 and 5 to 24 weeks following a COVID-19 diagnosis compared to propensity-matched controls. METHODS Two hundred forty nine thousand three hundred ninety Welsh individuals with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test were identified from data from national PCR test results. After elimination criteria, 98,600 positive individuals were matched to test negative and never tested controls using propensity matching. Cohorts were split on test location. Tests could be taken in either the hospital or community. Controls were those who had tested negative in their respective environments. Survival analysis was utilised for first clinical outcomes which are grouped into primary and secondary. Primary outcomes include post-viral-illness and fatigue as an indication of long-COVID. Secondary outcomes include clinical terminology concepts for embolism, respiratory conditions, mental health conditions, fit notes, or hospital attendance. Increased instantaneous risk for positive individuals was quantified using hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regression, while absolute risk (AR) and relative risk were quantified using life table analysis. RESULTS Analysis was conducted using all individuals and stratified by test location. Cases are compared to controls from the same test location. Fatigue (HR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.34-2.25, p = < 0.001) and embolism (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.15-1.97, p = 0.003) were more likely to occur in all positive individuals in the first 4 weeks; however, anxiety and depression (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.73-0.95, p = 0.007) were less likely. Positive individuals continued to be more at risk of fatigue (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.24-1.75, p = < 0.001) and embolism (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.13-2.02, p = 0.005) after 4 weeks. All positive individuals are also at greater risk of post-viral illness (HR: 4.57, 95% CI: 1.77-11.80, p = 0.002). Despite statistical association between testing positive and several conditions, life table analysis shows that only a small minority of the study population were affected. CONCLUSIONS Community COVID-19 disease is associated with increased risks of post-viral-illness, fatigue, embolism, and respiratory conditions. Despite elevated risks, the absolute healthcare burden is low. Subsequently, either very small proportions of people experience adverse outcomes following COVID-19 or they are not presenting to healthcare.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Kennedy
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, Wales, UK
| | - M Parker
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, Wales, UK.
| | - M Seaborne
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, Wales, UK
| | - M Mhereeg
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, Wales, UK
| | - A Walker
- Datalab, Nuffield Dept of Primary Care Health Science, Radcliffe Primary Care Building, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
| | - V Walker
- Bristol Medical School: Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - S Denaxas
- Institute for Health Informatics, UCL, London, UK
| | - N Kennedy
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, Wales, UK
| | - S V Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - S Brophy
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, Wales, UK
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Irizar P, Kapadia D, Amele S, Bécares L, Divall P, Katikireddi SV, Kibuchi E, Kneale D, McCabe R, Nazroo J, Nellums LB, Taylor H, Sze S, Pan D, Pareek M. Pathways to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 health outcomes in the United Kingdom: A systematic map. Soc Sci Med 2023; 329:116044. [PMID: 37364448 PMCID: PMC10284430 DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2022] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Marked ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 infection and its consequences have been documented. The aim of this paper is to identify the range and nature of evidence on potential pathways which lead to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 related health outcomes in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS We searched six bibliographic and five grey literature databases from 1st December 2019 to 23rd February 2022 for research on pathways to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 health outcomes in the UK. Meta-data were extracted and coded, using a framework informed by a logic model. Open Science Framework Registration: DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/HZRB7. RESULTS The search returned 10,728 records after excluding duplicates, with 123 included (83% peer-reviewed). Mortality was the most common outcome investigated (N = 79), followed by infection (N = 52). The majority of studies were quantitative (N = 93, 75%), with four qualitative studies (3%), seven academic narrative reviews (6%), nine third sector reports (7%) and five government reports (4%), and four systematic reviews or meta-analyses (3%). There were 78 studies which examined comorbidities as a pathway to mortality, infection, and severe disease. Socioeconomic inequalities (N = 67) were also commonly investigated, with considerable research into neighbourhood infrastructure (N = 38) and occupational risk (N = 28). Few studies examined barriers to healthcare (N = 6) and consequences of infection control measures (N = 10). Only 11% of eligible studies theorised racism to be a driver of inequalities and 10% (typically government/third sector reports and qualitative studies) explored this as a pathway. CONCLUSION This systematic map identified knowledge clusters that may be amenable to subsequent systematic reviews, and critical gaps in the evidence-base requiring additional primary research. Most studies do not incorporate or conceptualise racism as the fundamental cause of ethnic inequalities and therefore the contribution to literature and policy is limited.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia Irizar
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK.
| | - Dharmi Kapadia
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK
| | - Sarah Amele
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Laia Bécares
- Department of Global Health & Social Medicine, King's College London, UK
| | - Pip Divall
- University Hospitals of Leicester, Education Centre Library, Glenfield Hospital and Leicester Royal Infirmary, UK
| | | | - Eliud Kibuchi
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Dylan Kneale
- Institute of Education, University College London, UK
| | - Ronan McCabe
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - James Nazroo
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK
| | - Laura B Nellums
- Lifespan and Population Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, UK
| | - Harry Taylor
- Department of Sociology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK
| | - Shirley Sze
- Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
| | - Daniel Pan
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, UK; NIHR Leicester BioMedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Leicester, UK; Department of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, UK; Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Manish Pareek
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, UK; NIHR Leicester BioMedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Leicester, UK; Department of Infectious Diseases and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, UK
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McCabe R, Katikireddi SV, Dundas R, Craig P. The health impact of Scotland's Baby Box Scheme: a natural experiment evaluation using national linked health data. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e504-e510. [PMID: 37393089 PMCID: PMC10323308 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00121-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Revised: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Scotland's Baby Box Scheme (SBBS) is a national programme offering a box of essential items to all pregnant women in Scotland intended to improve infant and maternal health. We aimed to evaluate the effect of SBBS on selected infant and maternal health outcomes at population and subgroup levels (maternal age and area deprivation). METHODS Our complete-case, intention-to-treat evaluation used national health data (from the Scottish Morbidity Record [SMR] 01, SMR02, and the Child Health Surveillance Programme-Pre School), linking birth records to postnatal hospitalisation and universal health visitor records in Scotland. We considered maternal-infant pairs of all live-singleton births 2 years either side of SBBS introduction (Aug 17, 2015, to Aug 11, 2019). We estimated step-changes and trend-changes in outcomes (hospital admission and self-reported exclusive breastfeeding, tobacco smoke exposure, and infant sleeping position) by week of birth using segmented Poisson regression, adjusting for over-dispersion and seasonality where necessary. FINDINGS The analysis comprised 182 122 maternal-infant pairs. The prevalence of tobacco smoke exposure reduced after SBBS introduction: step decrease of 10% (prevalence ratio 0·904 [95% CI 0·865-0·946]; absolute decrease of 1·6% 1 month post-introduction) for infants and 9% (0·905 [0·862-0·950]; absolute decrease of 1·9% 1 month post-introduction) for the primary carer. There was no evidence of changes in infant and maternal all-cause hospital admissions or infant sleeping position. Among mothers younger than 25 years, there was a 10% step-increase in breastfeeding prevalence (1·095 [1·004-1·195]; absolute increase of 2·2% 1 month post-introduction) at 10 days and 17% (1·174 [1·037-1·328]) at 6-8 weeks postnatal. Although associations were robust to most sensitivity analyses, for smoke exposure associations were only observed early in the postnatal period. INTERPRETATION SBBS reduced infant and primary carer tobacco smoke exposure, and increased breastfeeding among young mothers in Scotland. However, absolute effects were small. FUNDING Medical Research Council, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, and National Records of Scotland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronan McCabe
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
| | | | - Ruth Dundas
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Peter Craig
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Costello RE, Tazare J, Piehlmaier D, Herrett E, Parker EP, Zheng B, Mansfield KE, Henderson AD, Carreira H, Bidulka P, Wong AY, Warren-Gash C, Hayes JF, Quint JK, MacKenna B, Mehrkar A, Eggo RM, Katikireddi SV, Tomlinson L, Langan SM, Mathur R. Ethnic differences in the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical monitoring and hospitalisations for non-COVID conditions in England: a population-based, observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 61:102077. [PMID: 37434746 PMCID: PMC10331810 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare and may have impacted ethnic inequalities in healthcare. We aimed to describe the impact of pandemic-related disruption on ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospital admissions for non-COVID conditions in England. Methods In this population-based, observational cohort study we used primary care electronic health record data with linkage to hospital episode statistics data and mortality data within OpenSAFELY, a data analytics platform created, with approval of NHS England, to address urgent COVID-19 research questions. We included adults aged 18 years and over registered with a TPP practice between March 1, 2018, and April 30, 2022. We excluded those with missing age, sex, geographic region, or Index of Multiple Deprivation. We grouped ethnicity (exposure), into five categories: White, Asian, Black, Other, and Mixed. We used interrupted time-series regression to estimate ethnic differences in clinical monitoring frequency (blood pressure and Hba1c measurements, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma annual reviews) before and after March 23, 2020. We used multivariable Cox regression to quantify ethnic differences in hospitalisations related to diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental health before and after March 23, 2020. Findings Of 33,510,937 registered with a GP as of 1st January 2020, 19,064,019 were adults, alive and registered for at least 3 months, 3,010,751 met the exclusion criteria and 1,122,912 were missing ethnicity. This resulted in 14,930,356 adults with known ethnicity (92% of sample): 86.6% were White, 7.3% Asian, 2.6% Black, 1.4% Mixed ethnicity, and 2.2% Other ethnicities. Clinical monitoring did not return to pre-pandemic levels for any ethnic group. Ethnic differences were apparent pre-pandemic, except for diabetes monitoring, and remained unchanged, except for blood pressure monitoring in those with mental health conditions where differences narrowed during the pandemic. For those of Black ethnicity, there were seven additional admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis per month during the pandemic, and relative ethnic differences narrowed during the pandemic compared to the White ethnic group (Pre-pandemic hazard ratio (HR): 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41, 0.60, Pandemic HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.87). There was increased admissions for heart failure during the pandemic for all ethnic groups, though highest in those of White ethnicity (heart failure risk difference: 5.4). Relatively, ethnic differences narrowed for heart failure admission in those of Asian (Pre-pandemic HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.49, 1.64, Pandemic HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19, 1.29) and Black ethnicity (Pre-pandemic HR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.53, Pandemic HR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.09, 1.25) compared with White ethnicity. For other outcomes the pandemic had minimal impact on ethnic differences. Interpretation Our study suggests that ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospitalisations remained largely unchanged during the pandemic for most conditions. Key exceptions were hospitalisations for diabetic ketoacidosis and heart failure, which warrant further investigation to understand the causes. Funding LSHTM COVID-19 Response Grant (DONAT15912).
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Affiliation(s)
| | - John Tazare
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Dominik Piehlmaier
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- University of Sussex Business School, Jubilee Building, Brighton, UK
| | - Emily Herrett
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Bang Zheng
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joseph F. Hayes
- Division of Psychiatry, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jennifer K. Quint
- Faculty of Medicine, National Heart & Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Brian MacKenna
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | | | | | - Rohini Mathur
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Primary Care, Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary, University of London, London, UK
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Flores-Ortiz R, Fiaccone RL, Leyland A, Millett C, Hone T, Schmidt MI, Ferreira AJF, Ichihara MY, Teixeira C, Sanchez MN, Pescarini J, Aquino EML, Malta DC, Velasquez-Melendez G, de Oliveira JF, Craig P, Ribeiro-Silva RC, Barreto ML, Katikireddi SV. Subsidised housing and diabetes mortality: a retrospective cohort study of 10 million low-income adults in Brazil. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care 2023; 11:e003224. [PMID: 37349106 PMCID: PMC10314413 DOI: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2022-003224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Housing-related factors can be predictors of health, including of diabetes outcomes. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and diabetes mortality among a large cohort of low-income adults in Brazil. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A cohort of 9 961 271 low-income adults, observed from January 2010 to December 2015, was created from Brazilian administrative records of social programmes and death certificates. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and time to diabetes mortality using a Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and regression adjustment. We assessed inequalities in this association by groups of municipality Human Development Index. Diabetes mortality included diabetes both as the underlying or a contributory cause of death. RESULTS At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 40.3 years (SD 15.6 years), with a majority of women (58.4%). During 29 238 920 person-years of follow-up, there were 18 775 deaths with diabetes as the underlying or a contributory cause. 340 683 participants (3.4% of the cohort) received subsidised housing. Subsidised housing residents had a higher hazard of diabetes mortality compared with non-residents (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). The magnitude of this association was more pronounced among participants living in municipalities with lower Human Development Index (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.62). CONCLUSIONS Subsidised housing residents had a greater risk of diabetes mortality, particularly those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities. This finding suggests the need to intensify diabetes prevention and control actions and prompt treatment of the diabetes complications among subsidised housing residents, particularly among those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renzo Flores-Ortiz
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Rosemeire L Fiaccone
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Institute of Mathematics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | | | - Christopher Millett
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Thomas Hone
- Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Maria Inês Schmidt
- Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Andrêa J F Ferreira
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Maria Y Ichihara
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Camila Teixeira
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Mauro N Sanchez
- Tropical Medicine Center, University of Brasilia, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Julia Pescarini
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Estela M L Aquino
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Deborah C Malta
- Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Juliane Fonseca de Oliveira
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center of Mathematics of University of Porto (CMUP), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Peter Craig
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rita C Ribeiro-Silva
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- School of Nutrition, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
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Juárez SP, Honkaniemi H, Aradhya S, Debiasi E, Katikireddi SV, Cederström AF, Mussino E, Rostila M. Explaining COVID-19 mortality among immigrants in Sweden from a social determinants of health perspective (COVIS): protocol for a national register-based observational study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e070670. [PMID: 37094903 PMCID: PMC10151235 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2022] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 04/26/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Adopting a social determinants of health perspective, this project aims to study how disproportionate COVID-19 mortality among immigrants in Sweden is associated with social factors operating through differential exposure to the virus (eg, by being more likely to work in high-exposure occupations) and differential effects of infection arising from socially patterned, pre-existing health conditions, differential healthcare seeking and inequitable healthcare provision. METHODS AND ANALYSIS This observational study will use health (eg, hospitalisations, deaths) and sociodemographic information (eg, occupation, income, social benefits) from Swedish national registers linked using unique identity numbers. The study population includes all adults registered in Sweden in the year before the start of the pandemic (2019), as well as individuals who immigrated to Sweden or turned 18 years of age after the start of the pandemic (2020). Our analyses will primarily cover the period from 31 January 2020 to 31 December 2022, with updates depending on the progression of the pandemic. We will evaluate COVID-19 mortality differences between foreign-born and Swedish-born individuals by examining each mechanism (differential exposure and effects) separately, while considering potential effect modification by country of birth and socioeconomic factors. Planned statistical modelling techniques include mediation analyses, multilevel models, Poisson regression and event history analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION This project has been granted all necessary ethical permissions from the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Dnr 2022-0048-01) for accessing and analysing deidentified data. The final outputs will primarily be disseminated as scientific articles published in open-access peer-reviewed international journals, as well as press releases and policy briefs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sol Pia Juárez
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Health Equity Studies (CHESS), Stockholm University/Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Helena Honkaniemi
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Health Equity Studies (CHESS), Stockholm University/Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Siddartha Aradhya
- Stockholm University Demography Unit, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Enrico Debiasi
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Health Equity Studies (CHESS), Stockholm University/Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Agneta F Cederström
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Health Equity Studies (CHESS), Stockholm University/Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Eleonora Mussino
- Stockholm University Demography Unit, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Mikael Rostila
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Health Equity Studies (CHESS), Stockholm University/Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
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Broadbent P, Thomson R, Kopasker D, McCartney G, Meier P, Richiardi M, McKee M, Katikireddi SV. The public health implications of the cost-of-living crisis: outlining mechanisms and modelling consequences. Lancet Reg Health Eur 2023; 27:100585. [PMID: 37035237 PMCID: PMC10068020 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 02/16/2023]
Abstract
The UK, and other high-income countries, are experiencing substantial increases in living costs. Several overlapping and intersecting economic crises threaten physical and mental health in the immediate and longer term. Policy responses may buffer against the worst effects (e.g. welfare support) or further undermine health (e.g. austerity). We explore fundamental causes underpinning the cost-of-living crisis, examine potential pathways by which the crisis could impact population health and use a case study to model potential impacts of one aspect of the crisis on a specific health outcome. Our modelling illustrates how policy approaches can substantially protect health and avoid exacerbating health inequalities. Targeting support at vulnerable households is likely to protect health most effectively. The current crisis is likely to be the first of many in era of political and climate uncertainty. More refined integrated economic and health modelling has the potential to inform policy integration, or 'health in all policies'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip Broadbent
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel Thomson
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Kopasker
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Gerry McCartney
- School of Social & Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Petra Meier
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Matteo Richiardi
- Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, United Kingdom
| | - Martin McKee
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
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Wels J, Wielgoszewska B, Moltrecht B, Booth C, Green MJ, Hamilton OKL, Demou E, Di Gessa G, Huggins C, Zhu J, Santorelli G, Silverwood RJ, Kopasker D, Shaw RJ, Hughes A, Patalay P, Steves C, Chaturvedi N, Porteous DJ, Rhead R, Katikireddi SV, Ploubidis GB. Home working and social and mental wellbeing at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: Evidence from 7 longitudinal population surveys. PLoS Med 2023; 20:e1004214. [PMID: 37104282 PMCID: PMC10138202 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Home working has increased since the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's onset with concerns that it may have adverse health implications. We assessed the association between home working and social and mental wellbeing among the employed population aged 16 to 66 through harmonised analyses of 7 UK longitudinal studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS We estimated associations between home working and measures of psychological distress, low life satisfaction, poor self-rated health, low social contact, and loneliness across 3 different stages of the pandemic (T1 = April to June 2020 -first lockdown, T2 = July to October 2020 -eased restrictions, T3 = November 2020 to March 2021 -second lockdown) using modified Poisson regression and meta-analyses to pool results across studies. We successively adjusted the model for sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, sex), job characteristics (e.g., sector of activity, pre-pandemic home working propensities), and pre-pandemic health. Among respectively 10,367, 11,585, and 12,179 participants at T1, T2, and T3, we found higher rates of home working at T1 and T3 compared with T2, reflecting lockdown periods. Home working was not associated with psychological distress at T1 (RR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.08) or T2 (RR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.11), but a detrimental association was found with psychological distress at T3 (RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.30). Study limitations include the fact that pre-pandemic home working propensities were derived from external sources, no information was collected on home working dosage and possible reverse association between change in wellbeing and home working likelihood. CONCLUSIONS No clear evidence of an association between home working and mental wellbeing was found, apart from greater risk of psychological distress during the second lockdown, but differences across subgroups (e.g., by sex or level of education) may exist. Longer term shifts to home working might not have adverse impacts on population wellbeing in the absence of pandemic restrictions but further monitoring of health inequalities is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacques Wels
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Centre Metices, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Bożena Wielgoszewska
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Bettina Moltrecht
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Charlotte Booth
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Michael J. Green
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Olivia KL Hamilton
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Evangelia Demou
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Giorgio Di Gessa
- Research Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Charlotte Huggins
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, The University of Edinburgh Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Jingmin Zhu
- Research Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gillian Santorelli
- Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, United Kingdom
| | - Richard J. Silverwood
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Kopasker
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Richard J. Shaw
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Alun Hughes
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Praveetha Patalay
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Claire Steves
- Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College London, St Thomas’ Hospital London, United Kingdom
| | - Nishi Chaturvedi
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - David J. Porteous
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine, The University of Edinburgh Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Rebecca Rhead
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Clarice Pears Building, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - George B. Ploubidis
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Social Research Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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Brown H, Xiang H, Cheetham M, Morris S, Gibson M, Katikireddi SV, Munford LA, Taylor-Robinson D, Finney H, Bartle V, Baxter AJ, Wickham S, Craig P, Bambra C. Exploring the health and sociodemographic characteristics of people seeking advice with claiming universal credit: a cross-sectional analysis of UK citizens advice data, 2017-2021. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:595. [PMID: 36997889 PMCID: PMC10060933 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15483-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 03/20/2023] [Indexed: 04/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The UK Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) administers Universal Credit (UC) - the main UK benefit for people in- and out-of-work. UC is being rolled out nationally from 2013 to 2024. Citizens Advice (CA) is an independent charity that provides advice and support to people making a claim for UC. The aim of this study is to understand who is seeking advice from CA when making a UC claim and how the types of people seeking advice are changing as the rollout of UC continues. METHODS Co-developed with Citizens Advice Newcastle and Citizens Advice Northumberland we performed longitudinal analysis of national data from Citizens Advice for England and Wales on the health (mental health and limiting long term conditions) and socio-demographic of 1,003,411 observations for people seeking advice with claiming UC over four financial years (2017/18 to 2020/21). We summarised population characteristics and estimated the differences between the four financial years using population-weighted t-tests. Findings were discussed with three people with lived experience of seeking advice to claim UC to help frame our interpretation and policy recommendations. RESULTS When comparing 2017/18 to 2018/19, there was a significantly higher proportion of people with limiting long term conditions seeking advice with claiming UC than those without (+ 2.40%, 95%CI: 1.31-3.50%). However, as the rollout continued between 2018/29 and 2019/20 (-6.75%, 95%CI: -9.62%--3.88%) and between 2019/20 and 2020/21 (-2.09%, 95%CI: -2.54%--1.64%), there were significantly higher proportions of those without a limiting long term condition seeking advice than with. When comparing 2018/19 to 2019/20 and 2019/20 to 2020/21, there was a significant increase in the proportion of self-employed compared to unemployed people seeking advice with claiming UC (5.64%, 95%CI: 3.79-7.49%) and (2.26%, 95%CI: 1.29-3.23%) respectively. CONCLUSION As the rollout for UC continues, it is important to understand how changes in eligibility for UC may impact on those who need help with applying for UC. Ensuring that the advice process and application process is responsive to a range of people with different needs can help to reduce the likelihood that the process of claiming UC will exacerbate health inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather Brown
- Division of Health Research, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
| | - Huasheng Xiang
- Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Mandy Cheetham
- Nursing, Midwifery and Health, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Steph Morris
- Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK
| | - Marcia Gibson
- MRC/CO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Luke Aaron Munford
- Health Organisation, Policy and Economics, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - David Taylor-Robinson
- Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems, Institute of Population Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, UK
| | | | - Victoria Bartle
- Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Andrew J Baxter
- MRC/CO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Sophie Wickham
- Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems, Institute of Population Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, UK
| | - Peter Craig
- MRC/CO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Clare Bambra
- Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK
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Meier P, Katikireddi SV, Smith K. Bold action is needed to strengthen primary prevention. BMJ 2023; 380:595. [PMID: 36921929 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.p595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/18/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Petra Meier
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Katherine Smith
- School of Social Work and Social Policy, University of Strathclyde, Strathclyde, UK
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Irizar P, Pan D, Kapadia D, Bécares L, Sze S, Taylor H, Amele S, Kibuchi E, Divall P, Gray LJ, Nellums LB, Katikireddi SV, Pareek M. Ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, intensive care admission, and death: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of over 200 million study participants. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 57:101877. [PMID: 36969795 PMCID: PMC9986034 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Revised: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 02/02/2023] [Indexed: 03/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background COVID-19 has exacerbated existing ethnic inequalities in health. Little is known about whether inequalities in severe disease and deaths, observed globally among minoritised ethnic groups, relates to greater infection risk, poorer prognosis, or both. We analysed global data on COVID-19 clinical outcomes examining inequalities between people from minoritised ethnic groups compared to the ethnic majority group. Methods Databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, EMCARE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library) were searched from 1st December 2019 to 3rd October 2022, for studies reporting original clinical data for COVID-19 outcomes disaggregated by ethnicity: infection, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality. We assessed inequalities in incidence and prognosis using random-effects meta-analyses, with Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) use to assess certainty of findings. Meta-regressions explored the impact of region and time-frame (vaccine roll-out) on heterogeneity. PROSPERO: CRD42021284981. Findings 77 studies comprising over 200,000,000 participants were included. Compared with White majority populations, we observed an increased risk of testing positive for infection for people from Black (adjusted Risk Ratio [aRR]:1.78, 95% CI:1.59-1.99, I2 = 99.1), South Asian (aRR:3.00, 95% CI:1.59-5.66, I2 = 99.1), Mixed (aRR:1.64, 95% CI:1.02-1.67, I2 = 93.2) and Other ethnic groups (aRR:1.36, 95% CI:1.01-1.82, I2 = 85.6). Black, Hispanic, and South Asian people were more likely to be seropositive. Among population-based studies, Black and Hispanic ethnic groups and Indigenous peoples had an increased risk of hospitalisation; Black, Hispanic, South Asian, East Asian and Mixed ethnic groups and Indigenous peoples had an increased risk of ICU admission. Mortality risk was increased for Hispanic, Mixed, and Indigenous groups. Smaller differences were seen for prognosis following infection. Following hospitalisation, South Asian, East Asian, Black and Mixed ethnic groups had an increased risk of ICU admission, and mortality risk was greater in Mixed ethnic groups. Certainty of evidence ranged from very low to moderate. Interpretation Our study suggests that systematic ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 health outcomes exist, with large differences in exposure risk and some differences in prognosis following hospitalisation. Response and recovery interventions must focus on tackling drivers of ethnic inequalities which increase exposure risk and vulnerabilities to severe disease, including structural racism and racial discrimination. Funding ESRC:ES/W000849/1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia Irizar
- School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Pan
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, United Kingdom
- Department of Infection and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals Leicester NHS Trust, United Kingdom
- Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
- NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, United Kingdom
| | - Dharmi Kapadia
- School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Laia Bécares
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, King's College London, United Kingdom
| | - Shirley Sze
- Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Harry Taylor
- School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Sarah Amele
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Eliud Kibuchi
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Pip Divall
- University Hospitals of Leicester, Education Centre Library, Glenfield Hospital and Leicester Royal Infirmary, United Kingdom
| | - Laura J Gray
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Laura B Nellums
- Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
| | | | - Manish Pareek
- Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, United Kingdom
- Department of Infection and HIV Medicine, University Hospitals Leicester NHS Trust, United Kingdom
- NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, United Kingdom
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Kerr S, Bedston S, Bradley DT, Joy M, Lowthian E, Mulholland RM, Akbari A, Hobbs FDR, Katikireddi SV, de Lusignan S, Rudan I, Torabi F, Tsang RSM, Lyons RA, Robertson C, Sheikh A. Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations: a pooled target trial study of 12.9 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Int J Epidemiol 2023; 52:22-31. [PMID: 36272418 PMCID: PMC9620314 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyac199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against severe COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS We carried out a target trial design for first/second doses of ChAdOx1(Oxford-AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) with a composite outcome of COVID-19 hospitalization or death over the period 8 December 2020 to 30 June 2021. Exposure groups were matched by age, local authority area and propensity for vaccination. We pooled event counts across the four UK nations. RESULTS For Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1 and Dose 1 of BNT162b2, VE/rVE reached zero by approximately Days 60-80 and then went negative. By Day 70, VE/rVE was -25% (95% CI: -80 to 14) and 10% (95% CI: -32 to 39) for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, respectively, and 42% (95% CI: 9 to 64) and 53% (95% CI: 26 to 70) for Doses 1 and 2 of BNT162b2, respectively. rVE for Dose 2 of BNT162b2 remained above zero throughout and reached 46% (95% CI: 13 to 67) after 98 days of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS We found strong evidence of waning in VE/rVE for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, as well as Dose 1 of BNT162b2. This evidence may be used to inform policies on timings of additional doses of vaccine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Kerr
- Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Stuart Bedston
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Declan T Bradley
- School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK
- Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Emily Lowthian
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
- Department of Education and Childhood Studies, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Rachel M Mulholland
- Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - F D Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Igor Rudan
- Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fatemeh Torabi
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Ruby S M Tsang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ronan A Lyons
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- BREATHE—The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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47
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Cheetham NJ, Kibble M, Wong A, Silverwood RJ, Knuppel A, Williams DM, Hamilton OKL, Lee PH, Bridger Staatz C, Di Gessa G, Zhu J, Katikireddi SV, Ploubidis GB, Thompson EJ, Bowyer RCE, Zhang X, Abbasian G, Garcia MP, Hart D, Seow J, Graham C, Kouphou N, Acors S, Malim MH, Mitchell RE, Northstone K, Major-Smith D, Matthews S, Breeze T, Crawford M, Molloy L, Kwong ASF, Doores K, Chaturvedi N, Duncan EL, Timpson NJ, Steves CJ. Antibody levels following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: associations with post-vaccination infection and risk factors in two UK longitudinal studies. eLife 2023; 12:e80428. [PMID: 36692910 PMCID: PMC9940912 DOI: 10.7554/elife.80428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody levels can be used to assess humoral immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination, and may predict risk of future infection. Higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike antibodies are known to be associated with increased protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, variation in antibody levels and risk factors for lower antibody levels following each round of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have not been explored across a wide range of socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and health factors within population-based cohorts. Methods Samples were collected from 9361 individuals from TwinsUK and ALSPAC UK population-based longitudinal studies and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Cross-sectional sampling was undertaken jointly in April-May 2021 (TwinsUK, N=4256; ALSPAC, N=4622), and in TwinsUK only in November 2021-January 2022 (N=3575). Variation in antibody levels after first, second, and third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables were analysed. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we tested associations between antibody levels following vaccination and: (1) SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination(s); (2) health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables. Results Within TwinsUK, single-vaccinated individuals with the lowest 20% of anti-Spike antibody levels at initial testing had threefold greater odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next 6-9 months (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.0), compared to the top 20%. In TwinsUK and ALSPAC, individuals identified as at increased risk of COVID-19 complication through the UK 'Shielded Patient List' had consistently greater odds (two- to fourfold) of having antibody levels in the lowest 10%. Third vaccination increased absolute antibody levels for almost all individuals, and reduced relative disparities compared with earlier vaccinations. Conclusions These findings quantify the association between antibody level and risk of subsequent infection, and support a policy of triple vaccination for the generation of protective antibodies. Funding Antibody testing was funded by UK Health Security Agency. The National Core Studies program is funded by COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing - National Core Study (LHW-NCS) HMT/UKRI/MRC ([MC_PC_20030] and [MC_PC_20059]). Related funding was also provided by the NIHR 606 (CONVALESCENCE grant [COV-LT-0009]). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (Grant ref: [217065/Z/19/Z]) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan J Cheetham
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Milla Kibble
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of CambridgeCambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | - Andrew Wong
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Anika Knuppel
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Dylan M Williams
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska InstitutetStockholmSweden
| | - Olivia KL Hamilton
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
| | - Paul H Lee
- Department of Health Sciences, University of LeicesterLeicesterUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Giorgio Di Gessa
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Jingmin Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | | | - George B Ploubidis
- Centre for Longitudinal Studies, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Ellen J Thompson
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Ruth CE Bowyer
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
- AI for Science and Government, The Alan Turing InstituteLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Xinyuan Zhang
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Golboo Abbasian
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Maria Paz Garcia
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Deborah Hart
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Jeffrey Seow
- Department of Infectious Diseases, King's College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Carl Graham
- Department of Infectious Diseases, King's College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Neophytos Kouphou
- Department of Infectious Diseases, King's College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Sam Acors
- Department of Infectious Diseases, King's College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Michael H Malim
- Department of Infectious Diseases, King's College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Ruth E Mitchell
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Kate Northstone
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Daniel Major-Smith
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Sarah Matthews
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Thomas Breeze
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Michael Crawford
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Lynn Molloy
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Alex SF Kwong
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
- Division of Psychiatry, University of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Katie Doores
- Department of Infectious Diseases, King's College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Nishi Chaturvedi
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Emma L Duncan
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Guy’s & St Thomas’s NHS Foundation TrustLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Nicholas J Timpson
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of BristolBristolUnited Kingdom
| | - Claire J Steves
- Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Guy’s & St Thomas’s NHS Foundation TrustLondonUnited Kingdom
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Calvert C, Carruthers J, Denny C, Donaghy J, Hopcroft LEM, Hopkins L, Goulding A, Lindsay L, McLaughlin T, Moore E, Taylor B, Loane M, Dolk H, Morris J, Auyeung B, Bhaskaran K, Gibbons CL, Katikireddi SV, O'Leary M, McAllister D, Shi T, Simpson CR, Robertson C, Sheikh A, Stock SJ, Wood R. A population-based matched cohort study of major congenital anomalies following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat Commun 2023; 14:107. [PMID: 36609574 PMCID: PMC9821346 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35771-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Evidence on associations between COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of congenital anomalies is limited. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study using linked electronic health records from Scotland (May 2020-April 2022) to estimate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and, separately, SARS-CoV-2 infection between six weeks pre-conception and 19 weeks and six days gestation and the risk of [1] any major congenital anomaly and [2] any non-genetic major congenital anomaly. Mothers vaccinated in this pregnancy exposure period mostly received an mRNA vaccine (73.7% Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and 7.9% Moderna mRNA-1273). Of the 6731 babies whose mothers were vaccinated in the pregnancy exposure period, 153 had any anomaly and 120 had a non-genetic anomaly. Primary analyses find no association between any vaccination and any anomaly (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] = 1.01, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.83-1.24) or non-genetic anomalies (aOR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.81-1.22). Primary analyses also find no association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and any anomaly (aOR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.66-1.60) or non-genetic anomalies (aOR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.57-1.54). Findings are robust to sensitivity analyses. These data provide reassurance on the safety of vaccination, in particular mRNA vaccines, just before or in early pregnancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clara Calvert
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | | | - Lisa E M Hopcroft
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Anna Goulding
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland
- Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Gloucestershire, UK
| | | | | | | | - Bob Taylor
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Maria Loane
- Institute of Nursing and Health Research, Ulster University, Newtownabbey, UK
| | - Helen Dolk
- Institute of Nursing and Health Research, Ulster University, Newtownabbey, UK
| | - Joan Morris
- Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK
| | - Bonnie Auyeung
- School of Philosophy, Psychology and Language Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Krishnan Bhaskaran
- Department of Non-Communicable Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | | | - David McAllister
- School of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Ting Shi
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sarah J Stock
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Rachael Wood
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland.
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Cerqueira-Silva T, Shah SA, Robertson C, Sanchez M, Katikireddi SV, de Araujo Oliveira V, Paixão ES, Rudan I, Junior JB, Penna GO, Pearce N, Werneck GL, Barreto ML, Boaventura VS, Sheikh A, Barral-Netto M. Effectiveness of mRNA boosters after homologous primary series with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 against symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 in Brazil and Scotland: A test-negative design case-control study. PLoS Med 2023; 20:e1004156. [PMID: 36630477 PMCID: PMC9879484 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Revised: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Brazil and Scotland have used mRNA boosters in their respective populations since September 2021, with Omicron's emergence accelerating their booster program. Despite this, both countries have reported substantial recent increases in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. The duration of the protection conferred by the booster dose against symptomatic Omicron cases and severe outcomes is unclear. METHODS AND FINDINGS Using a test-negative design, we analyzed national databases to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of a primary series (with ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2) plus an mRNA vaccine booster (with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) against symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes (hospitalization or death) during the period of Omicron dominance in Brazil and Scotland compared to unvaccinated individuals. Additional analyses included stratification by age group (18 to 49, 50 to 64, ≥65). All individuals aged 18 years or older who reported acute respiratory illness symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection between January 1, 2022, and April 23, 2022, in Brazil and Scotland were eligible for the study. At 14 to 29 days after the mRNA booster, the VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection of ChAdOx1 plus BNT162b2 booster was 51.6%, (95% confidence interval (CI): [51.0, 52.2], p < 0.001) in Brazil and 67.1% (95% CI [65.5, 68.5], p < 0.001) in Scotland. At ≥4 months, protection against symptomatic infection waned to 4.2% (95% CI [0.7, 7.6], p = 0.02) in Brazil and 37.4% (95% CI [33.8, 40.9], p < 0.001) in Scotland. VE against severe outcomes in Brazil was 93.5% (95% CI [93.0, 94.0], p < 0.001) at 14 to 29 days post-booster, decreasing to 82.3% (95% CI [79.7, 84.7], p < 0.001) and 98.3% (95% CI [87.3, 99.8], p < 0.001) to 77.8% (95% CI [51.4, 89.9], p < 0.001) in Scotland for the same periods. Similar results were obtained with the primary series of BNT162b2 plus homologous booster. Potential limitations of this study were that we assumed that all cases included in the analysis were due to the Omicron variant based on the period of dominance and the limited follow-up time since the booster dose. CONCLUSIONS We observed that mRNA boosters after a primary vaccination course with either mRNA or viral-vector vaccines provided modest, short-lived protection against symptomatic infection with Omicron but substantial and more sustained protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes for at least 3 months.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thiago Cerqueira-Silva
- LIB and LEITV Laboratories, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Universidade Federal de Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Syed Ahmar Shah
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Chris Robertson
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Mauro Sanchez
- Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Vinicius de Araujo Oliveira
- Universidade Federal de Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center for Data Integration and Knowledge for Health (Cidacs), Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Enny S. Paixão
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Igor Rudan
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Juracy Bertoldo Junior
- Universidade Federal de Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center for Data Integration and Knowledge for Health (Cidacs), Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Gerson O. Penna
- Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Neil Pearce
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Guilherme Loureiro Werneck
- Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L. Barreto
- Universidade Federal de Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center for Data Integration and Knowledge for Health (Cidacs), Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Viviane S. Boaventura
- LIB and LEITV Laboratories, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Universidade Federal de Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Manoel Barral-Netto
- LIB and LEITV Laboratories, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Universidade Federal de Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- Center for Data Integration and Knowledge for Health (Cidacs), Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
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Haakenstad A, Yearwood JA, Fullman N, Bintz C, Bienhoff K, Weaver MR, Nandakumar V, LeGrand KE, Knight M, Abbafati C, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed A, Ahmed Rashid T, Aji B, Akande-Sholabi W, Alam K, Al Hamad H, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Andrade PP, Anjum A, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariffin H, Arulappan J, Aryan Z, Ashraf T, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Bairwa M, Bakkannavar SM, Baliga S, Banik PC, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bayati M, Belete R, Bell AW, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj N, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhurtyal A, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Bolarinwa OA, Bonny A, Brenner H, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Busse R, Butt ZA, Butt NS, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carneiro VLA, Catalá-López F, Chandan JS, Charan J, Chavan PP, Chen S, Chen S, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chowdhury MAK, Cirillo M, Corso B, Dadras O, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dangel WJ, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, Deuba K, Dhimal M, Dhimal ML, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doshmangir L, Duncan BB, Effiong A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Erku DA, Eskandarieh S, Fares J, Farzadfar F, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gaihre S, Gardner WM, Garg T, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Guadamuz JS, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Hamiduzzaman M, Hanif A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasan MT, Hashi A, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari G, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Holla R, Hossain S, Hossain SJ, Hossain MBH, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Huang J, Huda MM, Ifeagwu SC, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jakovljevic M, Janodia MD, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath AM, Kamenov K, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karanikolos M, Katikireddi SV, Kavetskyy T, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khan M, Khezeli M, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa S, Kisa A, Klymchuk V, Koly KN, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koul PA, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lee CB, Li S, Lucchetti G, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Makki A, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malta DC, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martinez-Valle A, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Maude RJ, Maulik PK, McKee M, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Misra S, Moazen B, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi G, Moreira RS, Mosser JF, Mostafavi E, Mouodi S, Nagarajan AJ, Nagata C, Naghavi M, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nascimento BR, Nassereldine H, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Negoi I, Nepal S, Neupane Kandel S, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen CT, Ningrum DNA, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Oghenetega OB, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Onwujekwe OE, Otoiu A, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pardhan S, Pasupula DK, Pathak PK, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pereira J, Pilania M, Piroozi B, Podder V, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Prada SI, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ranabhat CL, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Renzaho AM, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ripon RK, Sacco S, Sadeghi M, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo H, Sahu M, Salama JS, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Seidu AA, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sheikh A, Shetty A, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shivakumar KM, Shokri A, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sofi-Mahmudi A, Sousa RARC, Stephens JH, Sun J, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadbiri H, Tamiru AT, Thankappan KR, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran MTN, Tran BX, Tripathi N, Tripathy JP, Troeger CE, Uezono DR, Ullah S, Ullah A, Unnikrishnan B, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vasic M, Veroux M, Vervoort D, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang YP, Wang Y, Ward P, Wiangkham T, Yadav L, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zaman SB, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zuniga YMH, Lim SS, Murray CJL, Lozano R. Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e1715-e1743. [PMID: 36209761 PMCID: PMC9666426 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00429-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. METHODS We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. INTERPRETATION Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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