SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the general population and healthcare workers in India, December 2020-January 2021

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in children with nephrotic syndrome and chronic kidney disease: a cross-sectional study from India

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of literature on the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among pediatric patients with underlying kidney disorders; few serosurveys among healthy children have shown seropositivity of 20-65% after different waves of infections.

METHODS

The study had a cross-sectional design and was conducted between January 2023 and July 2023; 163 children and adolescents (1-18 years) with nephrotic syndrome and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were screened for Anti-Spike SARS-COV-2 IgG antibodies as detected by a quantitative chemiluminescence immunoassay. Children with nephrotic syndrome, both steroid sensitive (SSNS) and steroid resistant (SRNS) were enrolled during disease remission. Correlation of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity status was done with age, gender, disease type, treatment duration, immunosuppressants, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and immunization status.

RESULTS

Of 163 children (63.8% boys) with median age of 9 years; 101 (62%) had underlying nephrotic syndrome (61 SSNS and 40 SRNS), and 62 (38%) children had CKD. Seroprotective titers for SARS-COV2 antibodies were present in 100 (61.3%) children. The median titers for all patients were 37.1 BAU/mL; for nephrotic syndrome they were 27.1 BAU/mL and for CKD they were 76.7 BAU/mL (p = 0.0033). A total of 43 (26.4%) children had high positive antibody levels (> 200 BAU/ml). Among those with nephrotic syndrome 60.7% with SSNS and 43.5% SRNS had seropositive titers. Only 4 (2.5%) children had a history of previous COVID infection and 6 (3.7%) were vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

In a largely unvaccinated population of children with nephrotic syndrome and CKD, 61.3% were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody indicating a past asymptomatic infection; titers were significantly higher in CKD compared to nephrotic syndrome.

Sero-Surveillance to Evaluate Trends in the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a Central Indian District

Background and objective The actual community burden of SARS-CoV-2 is undervalued, as the estimates are just the symptomatic infections. The acute phase of the pandemic has waned, and the analytical comparison of infection spread through repeated sero-epidemiological studies is important in the formulation of effective public health strategies. This study investigated the level of seroprevalence of IgG antibodies for the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the Nagpur district, Maharashtra, India. Materials and methods The present cross-sectional survey was conducted over three months from September to November 2021 by carrying out a door-to-door survey involving 6129 participants. Among them, 3131 were from municipal areas, while the rest were from non-municipal regions. Data collection was facilitated using Google Forms (Google LLC, Mountain View, California, United States). Venous blood samples were collected, and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were detected using the COVID KAVACH IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit (developed by the National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, India). The information collected was then cleaned, coded, and analyzed using Epi Info software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA). Results The seroprevalence rate was found to be 80% in the whole district. Females had a higher seroprevalence rate in both areas than males. The population aged 60 years and above had the highest seroprevalence rate in both zones. The vaccinated group demonstrated a greater number of individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to the unvaccinated group. Conclusion The significant increase in the seroprevalence estimates in relation to the prior survey is because of the significant surge in COVID-19 vaccination coverage after the first wave of the pandemic. The findings of the study imply the dynamic nature of the pandemic and the different degrees of immunity obtained within the community. Ongoing surveillance and research are essential for refining effective strategies to manage and mitigate future pandemics effectively.

Shift in Demographic Involvement and Clinical Characteristics of COVID-19 From Wild-Type SARS-CoV-2 to the Delta Variant in the Indian Population: In Silico Analysis

BACKGROUND

The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was considered the most dangerous SARS-CoV-2 strain; however, in-depth studies on its impact based on demographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the shift in demographic and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic with the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant compared with the wild-type (WT) strain (B.1).

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 cases in the Indian population caused by the WT strain (B.1) and Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was performed. The viral genomic sequence metadata containing demographic, vaccination, and patient status details (N=9500, NDelta=6238, NWT=3262) were statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

With the Delta variant, in comparison with the WT strain, a higher proportion of young individuals (<20 years) were infected (0-9 years: Delta: 281/6238, 4.5% vs B.1: 75/3262, 2.3%; 10-19 years: Delta: 562/6238, 9% vs B.1: 229/3262, 7%; P<.001). The proportion of women contracting infection increased (Delta: 2557/6238, 41% vs B.1: 1174/3262, 36%; P<.001). However, it decreased for men (Delta: 3681/6238, 59% vs B.1: 2088/3262, 64%; P<.001). An increased proportion of the young population developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized (Delta: 27/262, 10.3% vs B.1: 5/130, 3.8%; P=.02). Moreover, an increased proportion of the women (albeit not men) from the young (Delta: 37/262, 14.1% vs B.1: 4/130, 3.1%; P<.001) and adult (Delta: 197/262, 75.2% vs B.1: 72/130, 55.4%; P<.001) groups developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized. The mean age of men and women who contracted infection (Delta: men=37.9, SD 17.2 years; women=36.6, SD 17.6 years; P<.001; B.1: men=39.6, SD 16.9 years; women=40.1, SD 17.4 years; P<.001) as well as developing symptoms or being hospitalized (Delta: men=39.6, SD 17.4 years; women=35.6, SD 16.9 years, P<.001; B.1: men=47, SD 18 years; women=49.5, SD 20.9 years, P<.001) were considerably lower with the Delta variant than the B.1 strain. The total mortality was about 1.8 times higher with the Delta variant than with the WT strain. With the Delta variant, compared with B.1, mortality decreased for men (Delta: 58/85, 68% vs B.1: 15/20, 75%; P<.001); in contrast, it increased for women (Delta: 27/85, 32% vs B.1: 5/20, 25%; P<.001). The odds of death increased with age, irrespective of sex (odds ratio 3.034, 95% CI 1.7-5.2, P<.001). Frequent postvaccination infections (24/6238) occurred with the Delta variant following complete doses.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased involvement of young people and women, the lower mean age for illness, higher mortality, and frequent postvaccination infections were significant epidemiological concerns with the Delta variant.

Large and unequal life expectancy declines during the COVID-19 pandemic in India in 2020

Global population health during the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood because of weak mortality monitoring in low- and middle-income countries. High-quality survey data on 765,180 individuals, representative of one-fourth of India's population, uncover patterns missed by incomplete vital statistics and disease surveillance. Compared to 2019, life expectancy at birth was 2.6 years lower and mortality was 17% higher in 2020, implying 1.19 million excess deaths in 2020. Life expectancy declines in India were larger and had a younger age profile than in high-income countries. Increases in mortality were greater than expected based on observed seroprevalence and international infection fatality rates, most prominently among the youngest and older age groups. In contrast to global patterns, females in India experienced a life expectancy decline that was 1 year larger than losses for males. Marginalized social groups experienced greater declines than the most privileged social group. These findings uncover large and unequal mortality impacts during the pandemic in the world's most populous country.

Pediatric antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 after infection and vaccination in Calgary, Canada

BACKGROUND

There are few reports of longitudinal serologic responses in children following Sars-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. This study describes longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses following infection, vaccination, or both (hybrid immunity) in a cohort of Canadian children. The objectives of our study were to compare antibody levels following SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity and to examine antibody decline after final antigen exposure.

METHODS

The Alberta Childhood COVID-19 Cohort (AB3C) study was a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted from July 2020 to September 2022 with repeat sampling across 5 visits. Children under 18 years of age were enrolled for serial measurement of antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccine and infection.

RESULTS

The final sample size was 919; participants were 50.5% female, 48.2% were > 12 years and 88.5% were white ethnicity. The median peak spike IgG level of those with only infection was not different from those with no vaccination or infection (233 AU/mL (IQR: 99-944 AU/mL) vs. 3 AU/mL (IQR: 1-5 AU/mL; P = 0.1765). Participants with infections after vaccination had higher IgG levels than those where infection preceded vaccination (median: 36,660 (IQR: 22,084 - 40,000 AU/mL) vs. 17,461 AU/mL (IQR: 10,617 - 33,212 AU/mL); P < 0.0001). In a linear mixed methods model, children with infection-only had low levels of antibody that stayed stable over the study duration without further antigen exposures. Those with infection after vaccination had the slowest rate of antibody decline over time at 4% (95%CI: 2-5%) per week, compared with children where infection preceded vaccine 7% (95%CI: 6-8%) per week.

CONCLUSIONS

Children with hybrid immunity conferred through vaccination (2 + doses) followed by a SARS-CoV-2 infection had the highest and longest lasting antibody levels, compared to children who had an infection followed by vaccination, vaccination-only, or infection-only. The longer-term clinical importance of these findings, related to prevention of repeated infections and severe outcomes and need for further vaccine doses, is not yet known.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although the COVID-19 pandemic claimed a great deal of lives, it is still unclear how it affected mortality in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review summarized the available literature on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs, including methods, sources of data, and potential contributing factors that might have influenced excess mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and Scopus. We included studies published from 2019 onwards with a non-COVID-19 period of at least one year as a comparator. The meta-analysis included studies reporting data on population size, as well as observed and expected deaths. We used the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% confidence intervals. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42022378267).

RESULTS

The review covered 29 countries, with 10 countries included in the meta-analysis. The pooled meta-analysis included 1,405,128,717 individuals, for which 2,152,474 deaths were expected, and 3,555,880 deaths were reported. Calculated excess mortality was 100.3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, with an excess risk of death of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.649, 1.655, p < 0.001). The data sources used in the studies included civil registration systems, surveys, public cemeteries, funeral counts, obituary notifications, burial site imaging, and demographic surveillance systems. The primary techniques used to estimate excess mortality were statistical forecast modelling and geospatial analysis. One out of the 24 studies found higher excess mortality in urban settings.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that excess mortality in LLMICs during the pandemic was substantial. However, estimates of excess mortality are uncertain due to relatively poor data. Understanding the drivers of excess mortality, will require more research using various techniques and data sources.

Temporal Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Levels Among COVID-19 Patients in Kerala During the First Wave and Pre-vaccination Period

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 virus interacts with host cells through the S1 domain of its spike protein. This study measures the IgG immune response to this domain in COVID-19 patients from Kerala, India, and explores its association with various health factors.

METHODS

A cohort of 258 COVID-19 patients was analyzed for IgG antibodies targeting the S1 spike protein domain. The temporal pattern of the IgG response and its correlation with hospitalization needs, intensive care, and pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and coronary artery disease were assessed.

RESULTS

A significant IgG response (76.4%) was detected, indicating robust immune activation post-infection. The IgG levels peaked between two to four and four to eight weeks post-infection, with a notable increase at 12 weeks, hinting at possible secondary exposure or an immune memory response. No correlation was found between IgG levels and the presence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, or coronary artery disease. However, higher IgG responses correlated with the severity of the infection, as seen in patients requiring hospitalization or intensive care.

CONCLUSIONS

The IgG response to the S1 spike protein domain serves as a potential marker of immune activation in COVID-19. It reflects the body's defense mechanism against the virus and may predict disease severity and outcomes. The findings suggest that IgG levels could be indicative of the viral load, inflammatory response, and possibly the likelihood of protection against reinfection.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG in blood donors in a teaching institute from Western part of Maharashtra

Introduction

COVID-19 is a disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 that has appeared as a global pandemic in recent times. Currently, the transmission rate has slowed down significantly, but the definite pathological reason behind this is still unknown. Therefore, the prevalence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody must be studied to establish the relation between the rate of transmission and antibody presence.

Materials and Methods

A clinical assessment was performed to evaluate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies among 299 healthy volunteers in the period of February to May 2021. Serum samples were analyzed using chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA) technology to detect the presence of IgG antibodies.

Result

It was observed that 21% of the participants were seropositive, and 78% of the population was seronegative across the different genders. This confirmed that the generation of antibodies is independent of gender. Simultaneously, a t-test was performed that further suggested no statistical correlation between gender and seroprevalence. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis was performed to establish the relation between age and blood group with the seroprevalence. However, there was no statistical relationship found among these parameters.

Conclusion

This study assisted in examining the underlying causes of high or low seroprevalence among healthy volunteers.

Serosurveillance of COVID-19 amongst health care workers in a teaching institution - A prospective cohort study in Puducherry district

Introduction

The rapid spread and mutation rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV2) demands continuous monitoring in terms of genomic and serosurvival. The current study is designed to track the seroprevalence of health care workers (HCWs) postvaccination, as they may be more susceptible to contracting the SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to the general population.

Objective

The objective was to identify the seroprevalence rate for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody (N, S1, S2) amongst HCWs of various levels of exposure working in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Puducherry.

Materials and Methods

The present study followed a nonprobability consecutive sampling technique, which involved 216 study participants HCWs from the hospital. IgG antibody levels were measured using EUROIMMUNE Anti SARS-COV-2 ELISA KIT (IG g) ELISA at two points: firstly, 2 weeks after the second dose of vaccination, followed by 2 weeks after the booster dose.

Results

Out of the total 216 participants enrolled in the survey, there were 140 males and 76 females, and the maximum number of candidates studied were in the 41-50 age group. Almost 46.7% of the HCWs who participated in the study were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 in the case of those who were high-risk exposed, while only 30.4% were amongst those who were low-risk exposed. The proportion of study participants who became seropositive increased considerably after the booster dose (65.7%), from 38.0% when tested three months after infection.

Conclusion

A significant increase in antibody titres amongst high-risk HCWs postboost vaccination demands continuous monitoring of soluble IgG levels for recommendations of vaccination schedules.

Clinico-Epidemiological Characteristics of Healthcare Workers with SARS-CoV-2 Infection during the First and Second Waves in a Teaching Hospital from Eastern India: A Comparative Analysis

In this retrospective observational study, we have performed a comparative analysis of the demographic, clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the HCWs affected with SARS-CoV-2 infection during first two waves in India. The overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs was found to be 15.24% (14.20-16.33) and 23.38% (22.14-25.65) during first and second waves respectively. The second wave showed an adjusted odds ratio of 0.04(0.02-0.07) and 2.09(1.49-2.93) for hospitalization and being symptomatic, respectively. We detected significantly higher level of C-reactive protein (CRP) among admitted HCWs during the second wave (5.10 -14.60 mg/dl) as compared to the first wave (2.00 - 2.80 mg/dl). Our study found the relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among HCWs during the second wave to be 0.68 [0.57-0.82, p < 0.001)]. Although, the prevalence of SARS CoV-2 infection and risk of being symptomatic was higher during second wave, the risk of hospitalization was less when compared with the first wave.

Creation of a pandemic memory by tracing COVID-19 infections and immunity in Luxembourg (CON-VINCE)

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic swift implementation of research cohorts was key. While many studies focused exclusively on infected individuals, population based cohorts are essential for the follow-up of SARS-CoV-2 impact on public health. Here we present the CON-VINCE cohort, estimate the point and period prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, reflect on the spread within the Luxembourgish population, examine immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and ascertain the impact of the pandemic on population psychological wellbeing at a nationwide level.

METHODS

A representative sample of the adult Luxembourgish population was enrolled. The cohort was followed-up for twelve months. SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and serology were conducted at each sampling visit. The surveys included detailed epidemiological, clinical, socio-economic, and psychological data.

RESULTS

One thousand eight hundred sixty-five individuals were followed over seven visits (April 2020-June 2021) with the final weighted period prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of 15%. The participants had similar risks of being infected regardless of their gender, age, employment status and education level. Vaccination increased the chances of IgG-S positivity in infected individuals. Depression, anxiety, loneliness and stress levels increased at a point of study when there were strict containment measures, returning to baseline afterwards.

CONCLUSION

The data collected in CON-VINCE study allowed obtaining insights into the infection spread in Luxembourg, immunity build-up and the impact of the pandemic on psychological wellbeing of the population. Moreover, the study holds great translational potential, as samples stored at the biobank, together with self-reported questionnaire information, can be exploited in further research.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Trial registration number: NCT04379297, 10 April 2020.

Contribution of infection and vaccination to population-level seroprevalence through two COVID waves in Tamil Nadu, India

This study employs repeated, large panels of serological surveys to document rapid and substantial waning of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the population level and to calculate the extent to which infection and vaccination separately contribute to seroprevalence estimates. Four rounds of serological surveys were conducted, spanning two COVID waves (October 2020 and April-May 2021), in Tamil Nadu (population 72 million) state in India. Each round included representative populations in each district of the state, totaling ≥ 20,000 persons per round. State-level seroprevalence was 31.5% in round 1 (October-November 2020), after India's first COVID wave. Seroprevalence fell to 22.9% in round 2 (April 2021), a roughly one-third decline in 6 months, consistent with dramatic waning of SARS-Cov-2 antibodies from natural infection. Seroprevalence rose to 67.1% by round 3 (June-July 2021), with infections from the Delta-variant induced second COVID wave accounting for 74% of the increase. Seroprevalence rose to 93.1% by round 4 (December 2021-January 2022), with vaccinations accounting for 63% of the increase. Antibodies also appear to wane after vaccination. Seroprevalence in urban areas was higher than in rural areas, but the gap shrunk over time (35.7 v. 25.7% in round 1, 89.8% v. 91.4% in round 4) as the epidemic spread even in low-density rural areas.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-income and lower middle-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has been marked by a massive death toll. However, the overall effect of the pandemic, including potential unintended negative impacts of some control measures, on mortality remains poorly understood in low-income and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review aims to summarise the available literature on excess mortality in LLMICs, focusing on the methods and data sources used in estimating excess mortality and the drivers of excess mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will review the available literature and report results in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Searches will be conducted in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and Scopus. All published studies that report on the estimates of excess mortality in populations of LLMICs will be included. This will include those with a publication date from 2019 onwards and those with at least a 1-year non-COVID-19 period as the comparator in the estimation of excess mortality during the pandemic. There will be no language restrictions on the search. The meta-analysis will include studies with extractable data on excess mortality, methods, population size, and observed and expected deaths. We will use the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% CIs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

As there is no primary data collection, there is no requirement for ethical review. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publication and conference presentations.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022378267.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases versus family controls: a multi-city cross-sectional survey

There is uncertainty regarding the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 infection on patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRD) who are on immunosuppressive drugs. We did a multicity cross-sectional seroprevalence study conducted in five different cities in India before COVID-19 immunization. Patients with a diagnosis of AIRD and DMARDs were included. Relatives of the patients, preferably staying in the same household with no known rheumatic diseases served as controls. Serum IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein and nucleoprotein (NP) were assayed in eight hundred and eighty nine sera (subjects with disease = 379 and in subjects without disease = 510). IgG antibodies to either RBD and/or NP were positive in 135 (36%) subjects with AIRD as compared to 196 (38%) controls. The seroprevalence of anti-RBD and anti-NP varied between different cities but was not significantly different between subjects with and without disease in Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Bengaluru and Bhubaneswar. However, the occurrence of IgG antibodies to RBD was significantly (p < 0.05) lower in subjects with disease (28/65;43%) as compared to subjects without disease (42/65;65%) in Kolkata, where the positivity rate was lower in connective tissue disease group than in inflammatory arthritis group. Overall, patients with rheumatic diseases on DMARDs have IgG antibodies to RBD and NP of SARSCoV-2 at a comparable level with that of subjects without disease, but the level of antibodies to RBD is lower in patients with connective tissue disease on immunosuppressive drugs in one centre.

Geography Influences Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Serological Response in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Multinational Analysis From the ICARUS-IBD Consortium

BACKGROUND

Beyond systematic reviews and meta-analyses, there have been no direct studies of serological response to COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) across continents. In particular, there has been limited data from Asia, with no data reported from India. The ICARUS-IBD (International study of COVID-19 Antibody Response Under Sustained immunosuppression in IBD) consortium assessed serological response to SARS-CoV-2 in patients with IBD in North America, Europe, and Asia.

METHODS

The ICARUS-IBD study is a multicenter observational cohort study spanning sites in 7 countries. We report seroprevalence data from 2303 patients with IBD before COVID-19 vaccination between May 2020 and November 2021. SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid antibodies were analyzed.

RESULTS

The highest and lowest SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike seropositivity rates were found in Asia (81.2% in Chandigarh and 57.9% in Delhi, India; and 0% in Hong Kong). By multivariable analysis, country (India: odds ratio [OR], 18.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 12.03-26.95; P < .0001; United Kingdom: OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.58-3.72; P < .0001; United States: OR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.27-3.85; P = .005), male sex (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.07-1.99; P = .016), and diabetes (OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.04-5.46; P = .039) conferred higher seropositivity rates. Biological therapies associated with lower seroprevalence (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.15-0.33; P < .0001). Multiple linear regression showed associations between anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid titers with medications (P < .0001) but not with country (P = .3841).

CONCLUSIONS

While the effects of medications on anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers in patients with IBD were consistent across sites, geographical location conferred the highest risk of susceptibility to serologically detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection. Over half of IBD patients in India were seropositive prior to vaccination. These insights can help to inform shielding advice, therapeutic choices, and vaccine strategies in IBD patients for COVID-19 and future viral challenges.

A Mixture Model for Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Chennai, India

Serological assays used to estimate the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) often rely on manufacturers' cutoffs established on the basis of severe cases. We conducted a household-based serosurvey of 4,677 individuals in Chennai, India, from January to May 2021. Samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins. We calculated seroprevalence, defining seropositivity using manufacturer cutoffs and using a mixture model based on measured IgG level. Using manufacturer cutoffs, there was a 5-fold difference in seroprevalence estimated by each assay. This difference was largely reconciled using the mixture model, with estimated anti-S and anti-N IgG seroprevalence of 64.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 63.8, 66.0) and 51.5% (95% CrI: 50.2, 52.9), respectively. Age and socioeconomic factors showed inconsistent relationships with anti-S and anti-N IgG seropositivity using manufacturer cutoffs. In the mixture model, age was not associated with seropositivity, and improved household ventilation was associated with lower seropositivity odds. With global vaccine scale-up, the utility of the more stable anti-S IgG assay may be limited due to the inclusion of the S protein in several vaccines. Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence using alternative targets must consider heterogeneity in seroresponse to ensure that seroprevalence is not underestimated and correlates are not misinterpreted.

COVID-19 Pandemic in Malegaon: SUTRA over the Three Waves

Over the past two years, the COVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves with high morbidity and mortality. Lockdowns and other prompt responses helped India's situation become less severe. Although Malegaon in the Indian state of Maharashtra has a high population density, poor hygienic standards, and oppositional local community views toward national pandemic addressing measures, it is nevertheless reasonably safe. To understand the possible reasons serosurvey was conducted to estimate the anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody levels in the Malegaon population. Also, we did SUTRA mathematical modeling to the Malegaon daily data on COVID-19 attributable events and compared it with the National and state level. The case fatality rate (CFR) in Malegaon city for the first, second, and third waves was 3.25%, 2.25%, and 0.39%, respectively. The crude death rate (CDR) for Maharashtra ranked first for the initial two waves and India for the third wave. Malegaon, meanwhile, finished second in the first two waves but fared best in the third. The Vaccination coverage for the first dose before the second wave was only 0.34% but had risen to 64.46% by 12 Oct 2022. By then, the second and booster dose coverage was 27.55% and 2.38%, respectively. Serosurvey did between 12 and 18 Jan 2022 showed a 93.93% anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody presence. SUTRA modeling elucidated the high levels of antibodies due to the pandemic-reach over 102% by the third wave. The serosurvey and the model explain why the pandemic severity in terms of duration and CFR during the subsequent waves, especially third wave, was milder compared to the first wave in spite of low vaccination rates.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12088-023-01096-3.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To summarize the data on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys conducted in Brazil before the introduction of vaccines METHODS: The authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil. The present review followed the PRISMA guidelines. The authors searched Medline, Embase, and LILACS databases for serologic surveys conducted in the Brazilian population, in the period from 01/10/2019 to 07/11/2021, without language restrictions. The authors included studies that presented data concerning SARS-CoV-2 antibodies seroprevalence in Brazil and had a sample size ≥50 individuals. Considering the expected heterogeneity between studies, all analyses were performed using the random effects model, and heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic RESULTS: Of 586 publications identified in the initial searches, 54 were included in the review and meta-analysis, which contained the results of 135 surveys, with 336,620 participants. The estimated seroprevalence was 11.0%, ranging from 1.0% to 83.0%, with a substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 99.55%). In subgroup analyses, the authors observed that the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 13.0% in blood donors, 9.0% in the population-based surveys, 13% in schoolchildren, and 11.0% in healthcare workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Seroprevalence increases over time. Large differences were observed among the regions of the country. It was higher in the Northern region, decreasing towards the South. The present results may contribute to the analysis of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Brazilian population before vaccination, one of the factors that may be influencing the clinical presentation of COVID-19 cases related to the new variants, as well as the effectiveness of the vaccination program.

Population-based sero-epidemiological investigation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Somalia

OBJECTIVES

To explore the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Somalia by measuring the seroprevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the general population.

METHODS

We recruited a convenience sample of 2751 participants from among individuals attending outpatient and inpatient departments of public health facilities, or their accompanying family members. Participants were interviewed to collect sociodemographic data and provided a blood sample. We calculated seropositivity rates overall and by sex, age group, state, residence, education and marital status. We used logistic regression analysis - odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) - to investigate sociodemographic correlates of seropositivity.

RESULTS

The overall seropositivity rate was 56.4% (95% CI 54.5-58.3%), while 8.8% of participants reported being previously diagnosed with COVID-19 by July 2021. In the regression analysis, after controlling for covariates, urban residence was significantly asscoiated with seropositivity: OR = 1.74 (95% CI: 1.19-2.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show a high seroprevalence rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Somali population (56.4%), and indicate that many infections have not been captured by the country's surveillance system resulting in considerable under-reporting.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 seroassay sensitivity: a systematic review and modelling study

BackgroundSerological surveys have been the gold standard to estimate numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dynamics of the epidemic, and disease severity. Serological assays have decaying sensitivity with time that can bias their results, but there is a lack of guidelines to account for this phenomenon for SARS-CoV-2.AimOur goal was to assess the sensitivity decay of seroassays for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dependence of this decay on assay characteristics, and to provide a simple method to correct for this phenomenon.MethodsWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 serology studies. We included studies testing previously diagnosed, unvaccinated individuals, and excluded studies of cohorts highly unrepresentative of the general population (e.g. hospitalised patients).ResultsOf the 488 screened studies, 76 studies reporting on 50 different seroassays were included in the analysis. Sensitivity decay depended strongly on the antigen and the analytic technique used by the assay, with average sensitivities ranging between 26% and 98% at 6 months after infection, depending on assay characteristics. We found that a third of the included assays departed considerably from manufacturer specifications after 6 months.ConclusionsSeroassay sensitivity decay depends on assay characteristics, and for some types of assays, it can make manufacturer specifications highly unreliable. We provide a tool to correct for this phenomenon and to assess the risk of decay for a given assay. Our analysis can guide the design and interpretation of serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens and quantify systematic biases in the existing serology literature.

Impact of COVID-19 during pregnancy on placental pathology, maternal and neonatal outcome - A cross-sectional study on anemic term pregnant women from a tertiary care hospital in southern India

Background

SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy may cause adverse maternal, neonatal and placental outcomes. While tissue hypoxia is often reported in COVID-19 patients, pregnant women with anemia are suspected to be more prone to placental hypoxia-related injuries.

Methods

This hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted between August-November 2021, during COVID-19 second wave in India. Term pregnant women (N=212) admitted to hospital for delivery were enrolled consecutively. Since hospital admission mandated negative RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 virus, none had active infection. Data on socio-demography, COVID-19 history, maternal, obstetric, and neonatal outcomes were recorded. Pre-delivery maternal and post-delivery cord blood samples were tested for hematological parameters and SARS-CoV-2 IgG. Placentae were studied for histology.

Results

Of 212 women, 122 (58%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG, but none reported COVID-19 history; 134 (63.2%) were anemic. In seropositive women, hemoglobin (p=0.04), total WBC (p=0.009), lymphocytes (p=0.005) and neutrophils (p=0.02) were significantly higher, while ferritin was high, but not significant and neutrophils to lymphocytes (p=0.12) and platelets to lymphocytes ratios (p=0.03) were lower. Neonatal outcomes were similar. All RBC parameters and serum ferritin were significantly lower in anemic mothers but not in cord blood, except RDW that was significantly higher in both, maternal (p=0.007) and cord (p=0.008) blood from seropositive anemic group compared to other groups. Placental histology showed significant increase in villous hypervascularity (p=0.000), dilated villous capillaries (p=0.000), and syncytiotrophoblasts (p=0.02) in seropositive group, typically suggesting placental hypoxia. Maternal anemia was not associated with any histological parameters. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of placental histopathological adverse outcomes showed strong association with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity but not with maternal anemia. When adjusted for several covariates, including anemia, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity emerged as independent risk factor for severe chorangiosis (AOR 8.74, 95% CI 3.51-21.76, p<0.000), dilated blood vessels (AOR 12.74, 95% CI 5.46-29.75, p<0.000), syncytiotrophoblasts (AOR 2.86, 95% CI 1.36-5.99, p=0.005) and villus agglutination (AOR 9.27, 95% CI 3.68-23.32, p<0.000).

Conclusion

Asymptomatic COVID-19 during pregnancy seemed to be associated with various abnormal placental histopathologic changes related to placental hypoxia independent of maternal anemia status. Our data supports an independent role of SARS-CoV-2 in causing placental hypoxia in pregnant women.

Seroprevalence of IgG and IgM Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Inhabitants of Itanagar Capital Region, Arunachal Pradesh, India

Objective:The assessment of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) antibodies is essential to understand the transmission dynamics of contagious disease. The proportion of the population who developed antibodies against the COVID-19 disease can be estimated through population-based serosurveys. This population based cross sectional serosurvey was designed to assess the seroprevalence of IgG and IgM antibodies of COVID-19 infection. Material and methods:A population based cross sectional serosurvey included 1031 residents of Itanagar Capital Complex region (ICR), Arunachal Pradesh, India, aged above five years. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG and IgM antibody levels were analyzed by chemiluminescence immunoassay based serological tests. Results:The overall seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM was 92.24% and 7.7%, respectively. The seropositivity of IgG and IgM was 97.68% and 2.32%, respectively, in subjects fully vaccinated with two doses, 97.22% and 13.88%, respectively, in those vaccinated with the first dose, and 80% and 11.33%, respectively, in non-vaccinated participants. In contrast to indigenous tribal participants (IgG 90.55% and IgM 8.88%), seroprevalence was high in non-tribal subjects (IgG 94.72% and IgM 6.84%). Age, ethnicity, and area showed a positive correlation, while vaccination status exhibited a negative correlation with IgG levels (Pearson's coefficient -0.535). Conclusions:This first monocentric serosurvey following the high rate of infection with Delta variant in ICR found a high seropositivity for IgG. Further state level serosurveys are needed to assess the infection status, immunological response and associated comorbidities of COVID-19 infection. Periodic vaccination campaigns and early administration of booster doses to the general public might be beneficial in preserving immunity and prevent illness.

High seroprevalence against SARS-CoV-2 in non-vaccinated patients with inflammatory bowel disease from Northern India

BACKGROUND

The information on seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and its comparison to healthy controls is sparse. We compared the seroprevalence rates in patients with IBD and healthy controls (HCs).

METHODS

Patients with IBD and HCs (contact of patients) underwent SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing (chemiluminescent immunoassay: Siemens kit IgG against antigen-S1RBD) between July 2020 and April 2021. Information on demography, disease characteristics, drug history and past history of SARS-CoV-2 infection were noted. Patients on 5-aminosalicylic acid or no treatment were considered not on immunosuppressants and those who had received steroids, thiopurines or methotrexate within six months of inclusion were considered being on immunosuppressants.

RESULTS

A total of 235 patients (51.9%, males; mean age, 38.7 ± 12.4 years; median disease duration, 60 months [interquartile range, IQR: 36-120]) (ulcerative colitis [UC]: 69.4%, Crohn's disease [CD]: 28.9%, IBD unclassified [IBDU]: 1.7%) and 73 HCs (mean age, 39.6 ± 10.9 years, 80% males) were enrolled. Of the 235 patients, 128 (54.5%) patients were on immunosuppressants and 107 (45.5%) were not on immunosuppressants. Seventy-four (31.5%) patients were seropositive, of which two (0.9%) had previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and none received coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccine. Seroprevalence between IBD patients and HCs (32% vs. 27%, p > 0.05) and between patients with and without immunosuppressants (28.1% vs. 36%, p > 0.05) was similar. Age, gender, disease type, duration and activity in the last six months; and medication use were similar between patients with positive and negative serology. There was a progressive increase in seroprevalence from July 2020 to April 2021.

CONCLUSION

Up to 1/3rd of patients with IBD were seropositive for immunoglobulin G (IgG) SARS-Cov-2 antibody indicating high seroprevalence in patients with IBD from Northern India.

Differential COVID-19 infection rates in children, adults, and elderly: Systematic review and meta-analysis of 38 pre-vaccination national seroprevalence studies

Background

Debate exists about whether extra protection of elderly and other vulnerable individuals is feasible in COVID-19. We aimed to assess the relative infection rates in the elderly vs the non-elderly and, secondarily, in children vs adults.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of seroprevalence studies conducted in the pre-vaccination era. We identified representative national studies without high risk of bias through SeroTracker and PubMed searches (last updated May 17, 2022). We noted seroprevalence estimates for children, non-elderly adults, and elderly adults, using cut-offs of 20 and 60 years (or as close to these ages, if they were unavailable) and compared them between different age groups.

Results

We included 38 national seroprevalence studies from 36 different countries comprising 826 963 participants. Twenty-six of these studies also included pediatric populations and twenty-five were from high-income countries. The median ratio of seroprevalence in elderly vs non-elderly adults (or non-elderly in general, if pediatric and adult population data were not offered separately) was 0.90-0.95 in different analyses, with large variability across studies. In five studies (all in high-income countries), we observed significant protection of the elderly with a ratio of <0.40, with a median of 0.83 in high-income countries and 1.02 elsewhere. The median ratio of seroprevalence in children vs adults was 0.89 and only one study showed a significant ratio of <0.40. The main limitation of our study is the inaccuracies and biases in seroprevalence studies.

Conclusions

Precision shielding of elderly community-dwelling populations before the availability of vaccines was indicated in some high-income countries, but most countries failed to achieve any substantial focused protection.

Registration

Open Science Framework (available at: https://osf.io/xvupr).

Twice evasions of Omicron variants explain the temporal patterns in six Asian and Oceanic countries

BACKGROUND

The ongoing coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged and caused multiple pandemic waves in the following six countries: India, Indonesia, Nepal, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Some of the countries have been much less studied in this devastating pandemic. This study aims to assess the impact of the Omicron variant in these six countries and estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the reproduction number [Formula: see text] in these six South Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania countries.

METHODS

We propose a Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Hospitalized-Death-Recovered model with a time-varying transmission rate [Formula: see text] to fit the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and to estimate the IFR and [Formula: see text] in the aforementioned six countries. The level of immune evasion and the intrinsic transmissibility advantage of the Omicron variant are also considered in this model.

RESULTS

We fit our model to the reported deaths well. We estimate the IFR (in the range of 0.016 to 0.136%) and the reproduction number [Formula: see text] (in the range of 0 to 9) in the six countries. Multiple pandemic waves in each country were observed in our simulation results.

CONCLUSIONS

The invasion of the Omicron variant caused the new pandemic waves in the six countries. The higher [Formula: see text] suggests the intrinsic transmissibility advantage of the Omicron variant. Our model simulation forecast implies that the Omicron pandemic wave may be mitigated due to the increasing immunized population and vaccine coverage.

Omicron Variant of SARS-CoV-2: An Indian Perspective of Vaccination and Management

Omicron variants have highly influenced the entire globe. It has a high rate of transmissibility, which makes its management tedious. There are various subtypes of omicron, namely BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, and BA.5. Currently, one omicron subvariant BF.7 is also immersed in some parts of India. Further studies are required for a better understanding of the new immersing SARS-CoV-2 subvariant of the omicron. They differ in the mutation of the spike proteins, which alters their attachment to the host receptor and hence modifies their virulence and adaptability. Delta variants have a great disastrous influence on the entire world, especially in India. While overcoming it, another mutant catches the pace. The Indian population is highly affected by omicron variants. It alters the entire management and diagnosis system against COVID-19. It demanded forcemeat in the health care system, both qualitatively and quantitively, to cope with the omicron wave. The alteration in spike protein, which is the major target of vaccines, leads to varied immunization against the subvariants. The efficacy of vaccines against the new variant was questioned. Every vaccine had a different shielding effect on the new variant. The hesitancy of vaccination was a prevalent factor in India that might have contributed to its outbreak. The prevalence of omicron, monkeypox, and tomato flu shared some similarities and distinct features when compared to their influence on the Indian population. This review emphasizes the changes omicron brings with it and how the Indian health care system outrage this dangerous variant.

Age-stratified infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in the non-elderly population

The largest burden of COVID-19 is carried by the elderly, and persons living in nursing homes are particularly vulnerable. However, 94% of the global population is younger than 70 years and 86% is younger than 60 years. The objective of this study was to accurately estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among non-elderly people in the absence of vaccination or prior infection. In systematic searches in SeroTracker and PubMed (protocol: https://osf.io/xvupr), we identified 40 eligible national seroprevalence studies covering 38 countries with pre-vaccination seroprevalence data. For 29 countries (24 high-income, 5 others), publicly available age-stratified COVID-19 death data and age-stratified seroprevalence information were available and were included in the primary analysis. The IFRs had a median of 0.034% (interquartile range (IQR) 0.013-0.056%) for the 0-59 years old population, and 0.095% (IQR 0.036-0.119%) for the 0-69 years old. The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.002% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49 years, 0.123% at 50-59 years, and 0.506% at 60-69 years. IFR increases approximately 4 times every 10 years. Including data from another 9 countries with imputed age distribution of COVID-19 deaths yielded median IFR of 0.025-0.032% for 0-59 years and 0.063-0.082% for 0-69 years. Meta-regression analyses also suggested global IFR of 0.03% and 0.07%, respectively in these age groups. The current analysis suggests a much lower pre-vaccination IFR in non-elderly populations than previously suggested. Large differences did exist between countries and may reflect differences in comorbidities and other factors. These estimates provide a baseline from which to fathom further IFR declines with the widespread use of vaccination, prior infections, and evolution of new variants.

Estimates of pandemic excess mortality in India based on civil registration data

The population health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are less well understood in low and middle-income countries, where mortality surveillance before the pandemic was patchy. Interpreting the limited all-cause mortality data available in India is challenging. We use existing data on all-cause mortality from civil registration systems of twelve Indian states comprising around 60% of the national population to understand the scale and timing of excess deaths in India during the COVID-19 pandemic. We carefully characterize the reasons why registration is incomplete and estimate the extent of coverage in the data. Comparing the pandemic period to 2019, we estimate excess mortality in twelve Indian states, and extrapolate our estimates to the rest of India. We explore sensitivity of the estimates to various assumptions. For the 12 states with available all-cause mortality data, we document an increase of 28% in deaths during April 2020-May 2021 relative to expectations from 2019. This level of increase in mortality, if it applies nationally, would imply 2.8-2.9 million excess deaths. More limited data from June 2021 increases national estimates of excess deaths during April 2020-June 2021 to 3.8 million. With more optimistic or pessimistic assumptions, excess deaths during this period could credibly lie between 2.8 million and 5.2 million. The scale of estimated excess deaths is broadly consistent with expectations based on seroprevalence and COVID-19 fatality rates observed internationally. Moreover, the timing of excess deaths and recorded COVID-19 deaths is similar-they rise and fall at the same time. The surveillance of pandemic mortality in India has been extremely poor, with 8-10 times as many excess deaths as officially recorded COVID-19 deaths. India is among the countries most severely impacted by the pandemic. Our approach highlights the utility of all-cause mortality data, as well as the significant challenges in interpreting it.

Ultrarapid and ultrasensitive detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in COVID-19 patients via a 3D-printed nanomaterial-based biosensing platform

Rapid detection of antibodies during infection and after vaccination is critical for the control of infectious outbreaks, understanding immune response, and evaluating vaccine efficacy. In this manuscript, we evaluate a simple ultrarapid test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in COVID-19 patients, which gives quantitative results (i.e., antibody concentration) in 10-12 s using a previously reported nanomaterial-based three-dimensional (3D)-printed biosensing platform. This platform consists of a micropillar array electrode fabricated via 3D printing of aerosolized gold nanoparticles and coated with nanoflakes of graphene and specific SARS-CoV-2 antigens, including spike S1, S1 receptor-binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid (N). The sensor works on the principle of electrochemical transduction, where the change of sensor impedance is realized by the interactions between the viral proteins attached to the sensor electrode surface and the antibodies. The three sensors were used to test samples from 17 COVID-19 patients and 3 patients without COVID-19. Unlike other serological tests, the 3D sensors quantitatively detected antibodies at a concentration as low as picomole within 10-12 s in human plasma samples. We found that the studied COVID-19 patients had higher concentrations of antibodies to spike proteins (RBD and S1) than to the N protein. These results demonstrate the enormous potential of the rapid antibody test platform for understanding patients' immunity, disease epidemiology and vaccine efficacy, and facilitating the control and prevention of infectious epidemics.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh 2020: a population-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to determine the seroprevalence, the fraction of asymptomatic infections, and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infections among the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs).

DESIGN

It was a population-based two-stage cross-sectional study at the level of households.

SETTING

The study was conducted in December 2020 among household members of the FDMN population living in the 34 camps of Ukhia and Teknaf Upazila of Cox's Bazar district in Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Among 860 697 FDMNs residing in 187 517 households, 3446 were recruited for the study. One individual aged 1 year or older was randomly selected from each targeted household.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Blood samples from respondents were tested for total antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 using Wantai ELISA kits, and later positive samples were validated by Kantaro kits.

RESULTS

More than half (55.3%) of the respondents were females, aged 23 median (IQR 14-35) years and more than half (58.4%) had no formal education. Overall, 2090 of 3446 study participants tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibody. The weighted and test adjusted seroprevalence (95% CI) was 48.3% (45.3% to 51.4%), which did not differ by the sexes. Children (aged 1-17 years) had a significantly lower seroprevalence 38.6% (95% CI 33.8% to 43.4%) compared with adults (58.1%, 95% CI 55.2% to 61.1%). Almost half (45.7%, 95% CI 41.9% to 49.5%) of seropositive individuals reported no relevant symptoms since March 2020. Antibody seroprevalence was higher in those with any comorbidity (57.8%, 95% CI 50.4% to 64.5%) than those without (47.2%, 95% CI 43.9% to 50.4%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of all subjects identified increasing age and education as risk factors for seropositivity. In children (≤17 years), only age was significantly associated with the infection.

CONCLUSIONS

In December 2020, about half of the FDMNs had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, including those who reported no history of symptoms. Periodic serosurveys are necessary to recommend appropriate public health measures to limit transmission.

Global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from January 2020 to April 2022: A systematic review and meta-analysis of standardized population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Our understanding of the global scale of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remains incomplete: Routine surveillance data underestimate infection and cannot infer on population immunity; there is a predominance of asymptomatic infections, and uneven access to diagnostics. We meta-analyzed SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies, standardized to those described in the World Health Organization's Unity protocol (WHO Unity) for general population seroepidemiological studies, to estimate the extent of population infection and seropositivity to the virus 2 years into the pandemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, searching MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, preprints, and grey literature for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence published between January 1, 2020 and May 20, 2022. The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020183634). We included general population cross-sectional and cohort studies meeting an assay quality threshold (90% sensitivity, 97% specificity; exceptions for humanitarian settings). We excluded studies with an unclear or closed population sample frame. Eligible studies-those aligned with the WHO Unity protocol-were extracted and critically appraised in duplicate, with risk of bias evaluated using a modified Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. We meta-analyzed seroprevalence by country and month, pooling to estimate regional and global seroprevalence over time; compared seroprevalence from infection to confirmed cases to estimate underascertainment; meta-analyzed differences in seroprevalence between demographic subgroups such as age and sex; and identified national factors associated with seroprevalence using meta-regression. We identified 513 full texts reporting 965 distinct seroprevalence studies (41% low- and middle-income countries [LMICs]) sampling 5,346,069 participants between January 2020 and April 2022, including 459 low/moderate risk of bias studies with national/subnational scope in further analysis. By September 2021, global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from infection or vaccination was 59.2%, 95% CI [56.1% to 62.2%]. Overall seroprevalence rose steeply in 2021 due to infection in some regions (e.g., 26.6% [24.6 to 28.8] to 86.7% [84.6% to 88.5%] in Africa in December 2021) and vaccination and infection in others (e.g., 9.6% [8.3% to 11.0%] in June 2020 to 95.9% [92.6% to 97.8%] in December 2021, in European high-income countries [HICs]). After the emergence of Omicron in March 2022, infection-induced seroprevalence rose to 47.9% [41.0% to 54.9%] in Europe HIC and 33.7% [31.6% to 36.0%] in Americas HIC. In 2021 Quarter Three (July to September), median seroprevalence to cumulative incidence ratios ranged from around 2:1 in the Americas and Europe HICs to over 100:1 in Africa (LMICs). Children 0 to 9 years and adults 60+ were at lower risk of seropositivity than adults 20 to 29 (p < 0.001 and p = 0.005, respectively). In a multivariable model using prevaccination data, stringent public health and social measures were associated with lower seroprevalence (p = 0.02). The main limitations of our methodology include that some estimates were driven by certain countries or populations being overrepresented.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that global seroprevalence has risen considerably over time and with regional variation; however, over one-third of the global population are seronegative to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Our estimates of infections based on seroprevalence far exceed reported Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Quality and standardized seroprevalence studies are essential to inform COVID-19 response, particularly in resource-limited regions.

Seroprevalence, correlates and kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibody in healthcare workers and nonclinical staff at a tertiary hospital: A prevaccine census study

BACKGROUND

Healthcare workers and nonclinical staff in medical facilities are perceived to be a high-risk group for acquiring SAR-CoV-2 infection, and more so in countries where COVID-19 vaccination uptake is low. Serosurveillance may best determine the true extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection since most infected HCWs and other staff may be asymptomatic or present with only mild symptoms. Over time, determining the true extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection could inform hospital management and staff whether the preventive measures instituted are effective and valuable in developing targeted solutions.

METHODS

This was a census survey study conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi, between November 2020 and February 2021 before the implementation of the COVID-19 vaccination. The SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG test was performed using a chemiluminescent assay.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred thirty-one (1631) staff enrolled, totalling 60% of the workforce. The overall crude seroprevalence was 18.4% and the adjusted value (for assay sensitivity of 86%) was 21.4% (95% CI; 19.2-23.7). The staff categories with higher prevalence included pharmacy (25.6%), outreach (24%), hospital- based nursing (22.2%) and catering staff (22.6%). Independent predictors of a positive IgG result after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities included prior COVID-19 like symptoms, odds ratio (OR) 2.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0, p = 0.001], a prior positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result OR 12.0 (CI: 7.7-18.7, p<0.001) and working in a clinical COVID-19 designated area, OR 1.9 (CI 1.1-3.3, p = 0.021). The odds of testing positive for IgG after a positive PCR test were lowest if the antibody test was performed more than 2 months later; OR 0.7 (CI: 0.48-0.95, p = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of anti- SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG among HCWs and nonclinical staff was lower than in the general population. Staff working in clinical areas were not at increased risk when compared to staff working in non-clinical areas.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific anti-spike IgM, IgG, and anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies during the second wave of the pandemic: A population-based cross-sectional survey across Kashmir, India

Background

Within Kashmir, which is one of the topographically distinct areas in the Himalayan belt of India, a total of 2,236 cumulative deaths occurred by the end of the second wave. We aimed to conduct this population-based study in the age group of 7 years and above to estimate the seropositivity and its attributes in Kashmir valley.

Methods

We conducted a community-based household-level cross-sectional study, with a multistage, population-stratified, probability-proportionate-to-size, cluster sampling method to select 400 participants from each of the 10 districts of Kashmir. We also selected a quota of healthcare workers, police personnel, and antenatal women from each of the districts. Households were selected from each cluster and all family members with age 7 years or more were invited to participate. Information was collected through a standardized questionnaire and entered into Epicollect 5 software. Trained healthcare personnel were assigned for collecting venous blood samples from each of the participants which were transferred and processed for immunological testing. Testing was done for the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific anti-spike IgM, IgG antibodies, and anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies. Weighted seropositivity was estimated along with the adjustment done for the sensitivity and specificity of the test used.

Findings

The data were collected from a total of 4,229 participants from the general population within the 10 districts of Kashmir. Our results showed that 84.84% (95% CI 84.51-85.18%) of the participants were seropositive in the weighted imputed data among the general population. In multiple logistic regression, the variables significantly affecting the seroprevalence were the age group 45-59 years (odds ratio of 0.73; 95% CI 0.67-0.78), self-reported history of comorbidity (odds ratio of 1.47; 95% CI 1.33-1.61), and positive vaccination history (odds ratio of 0.85; 95% CI 0.79-0.90) for anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies. The entire assessed variables showed a significant role during multiple logistic regression analysis for affecting IgM anti-spike antibodies with an odds ratio of 1.45 (95% CI 1.32-1.57) for age more than 60 years, 1.21 (95% CI 1.15-1.27) for the female gender, 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.92) for urban residents, 0.86 (95% CI 0.76-0.92) for self-reported comorbidity, and an odds ratio of 1.16 (95% CI 1.08-1.24) for a positive history of vaccination. The estimated infection fatality ratio was 0.033% (95% CI: 0.034-0.032%) between 22 May and 31 July 2021 against the seropositivity for IgM antibodies.

Interpretation

During the second wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, 84.84% (95% CI 84.51-85.18%) of participants from this population-based cross-sectional sample were seropositive against SARS-CoV-2. Despite a comparatively lower number of cases reported and lower vaccination coverage in the region, our study found such high seropositivity across all age groups, which indicates the higher number of subclinical and less severe unnoticed caseload in the community.

Modelling the first wave of COVID-19 in India

Estimating the burden of COVID-19 in India is difficult because the extent to which cases and deaths have been undercounted is hard to assess. Here, we use a 9-component, age-stratified, contact-structured epidemiological compartmental model, which we call the INDSCI-SIM model, to analyse the first wave of COVID-19 spread in India. We use INDSCI-SIM, together with Bayesian methods, to obtain optimal fits to daily reported cases and deaths across the span of the first wave of the Indian pandemic, over the period Jan 30, 2020 to Feb 15, 2021. We account for lock-downs and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), an overall increase in testing as a function of time, the under-counting of cases and deaths, and a range of age-specific infection-fatality ratios. We first use our model to describe data from all individual districts of the state of Karnataka, benchmarking our calculations using data from serological surveys. We then extend this approach to aggregated data for Karnataka state. We model the progress of the pandemic across the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru and Chennai, and then for India as a whole. We estimate that deaths were undercounted by a factor between 2 and 5 across the span of the first wave, converging on 2.2 as a representative multiplier that accounts for the urban-rural gradient. We also estimate an overall under-counting of cases by a factor of between 20 and 25 towards the end of the first wave. Our estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) are in the range 0.05—0.15, broadly consistent with previous estimates but substantially lower than values that have been estimated for other LMIC countries. We find that approximately 35% of India had been infected overall by the end of the first wave, results broadly consistent with those from serosurveys. These results contribute to the understanding of the long-term trajectory of COVID-19 in India.

Making sense of publicly available epidemiological data for the COVID-19 pandemic in India presents multiple challenges, largely to do with the quality of the data. Here, we describe ways of addressing these questions by studying the data using a well-parameterised, detailed compartmental model together with Bayesian methods, alongside information derived from pan-India serological surveys. We focus on the first wave of the Indian pandemic, across the interval Jan 30, 2020 to Feb 15, 2021. We estimate that deaths were under-counted by a factor between 2 and 5 across the span of the first wave and that cases were under-counted by a factor of between 20 and 25 towards its end. We estimate an infection fatality ratio (IFR) in the range 0.05—0.15. We find that approximately 35% of India had been infected overall by the end of the first wave, a number that helps us better understand the context in which the second and later waves unfolded.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV 2 antibodies & its determinants in children of 5-to-18-year age group in an urban setting, Kerala

Background

There were limited data on the true burden of COVID 19 infection in children since the majority of the infections are asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic. This study aimed to measure the prevalence of SARS CoV2 antibodies in children of the 5-to-18 years age group.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in the field practice area attached to a tertiary care hospital in Kerala. Two hundred four children of the 5-to-18 year age group were enrolled in our study. The data regarding sociodemographic details, symptoms suggestive of COVID 19, exposure to confirmed COVID 19 cases and history of COVID 19 positivity were collected from the study participants. 2 ml venous blood was collected from each participant, and the seroprevalence of SARS CoV2 combined antibodies was assessed using WANTAI antibody test kit.

Results

The seroprevalence of SARS Cov2 antibodies in children of 5-to-18 years age group was 41.7% (95% CI,34.9% to 48.43%). The seroprevalence was high in the 13-to-15 year age group, almost similar in both gender and socio-economic groups. The seropositivity was significantly associated with history of confirmed COVID 19 positivity, children with a history of symptoms suggestive of COVID 19 and the presence of positive contact in the household (P < 0.05). Seroprevalence was also significantly high in children whose mothers were health care workers.

Conclusion

Approximately 41.7% of children showed seropositivity to COVID 19 infection. More than 50% of the children remain susceptible. Among seropositive, 56.5% were asymptomatic. Thus there is a need to test even asymptomatic children in COVID 19 positive households.

Trend in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (IgG antibody) among tribal-dominated population: Findings from Jharkhand, India

Background & objectives

Serosurvey of COVID-19 provides a better estimation of people who have developed antibodies against the infection. Undertaking such a serosurvey in certain districts of India which are densely populated with prominent tribes can provide valuable information regarding seropravelance of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among such indigenous populations. In this context, two rounds of population-based, cross-sectional serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody were carried out in Jharkhand, a tribal-dominated State of India, to compare the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to determine the associated demographic risk factors.

Methods

The surveys were carried out in June 2020 and February 2021 in ten districts of the State of Jharkhand. Blood samples were collected from the residents of the selected districts by random sampling and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using an automated chemiluminescence immunoassay platform. A total of 4761 and 3855 eligible participants were included in round 1 and round 2, respectively.

Results

The age- and gender-standardized seroprevalence for COVID-19 during round 1 was 0.54 per cent (0.36-0.80) that increased to 41.69 per cent (40.16-43.22) during round 2 with a gap of eight months in between. The seropositivity among male and female participants was 0.73 and 0.45 per cent, respectively, during the first round and 51.35 and 33.70 per cent, respectively, during the second round. During the first round, 17.37 per cent of the participants were tribal with seropositivity of 0.24 per cent (0.02-0.87), and during the second round, 21.14 per cent were tribal with seropositivity of 39.14 per cent (35.77-42.59). Compared to tribal group, non-tribal participants had an adjusted odds of 1.24 (95% confidence interval=1.04-1.48) for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.

Interpretation & conclusions

COVID-19 seroprevalence was found to be low during the first round (0.54%) of the survey, possibly due to the travel restrictions during lockdown better adherence to social distancing and wearing of face masks among the people. Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the susceptibility to infection at the individual as well as community level will inform decision and help policy makers to design and implement effective public health strategies to mitigate the pandemic in this State.

Serological survey for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among tribal communities of Odisha post-second wave

Background & objectives

Serial national level serosurveys in India have provided valuable information regarding the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in the general population, but the impact of the ongoing pandemic on the tribal population in India is not well understood. In this study, we evaluated the seroprevalence of COVID-19 antibodies in the tribal population of Odisha post-second wave (September 2021).

Methods

A population-based, age-stratified, cross-sectional study design was adopted for the survey, carried out in seven tribal districts of Odisha from 30^th August to 16^th September 2021. A multistage random sampling method was used where serum samples were tested for antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) protein in each district, and a weighted seroprevalence with 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) was estimated for each district.

Results

A total of 2855 study participants were included from the seven tribal districts of Odisha in the final analysis. The overall weighted seroprevalence was 72.8 per cent (95% CI: 70.1-75.3). Serological prevalence was the highest among 18-44 yr (74.4%, 95% CI: 71.3-77.3) and from Sambalpur district [75.90% (66.90-83.10)]. Among participants, 41.93 per cent had received at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine. Kandhamal district had the highest number of fully immunized participants (24.78%), and in Sundergarh district, most of the study participants (58.1%) were unimmunized.

Interpretation & conclusions

This study found high seroprevalence against SARS-CoV-2 in the tribal population of Odisha. The vaccination coverage is at par with the general population, and efforts to address some knowledge gaps may be needed to improve the coverage in the future.

Effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Coronavirus Vaccine (CovishieldTM) in Preventing SARS-CoV2 Infection, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, 2021

We estimated the effectiveness of two doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Covishield) vaccine against any COVID-19 infection among individuals ≥45 years in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. A community-based cohort study was conducted from May to September 2021 in a selected geographic area in Chennai. The estimated sample size was 10,232. We enrolled 69,435 individuals, of which 21,793 were above 45 years. Two-dose coverage of Covishield in the 18+ and 45+ age group was 18% and 31%, respectively. Genomic analysis of 74 out of the 90 aliquots collected from the 303 COVID-19-positive individuals in the 45+ age group showed delta variants and their sub-lineages. The vaccine’s effectiveness against COVID-19 disease in the ≥45 age group was 61.3% (95% CI: 43.6–73.4) at least 2 weeks after receiving the second dose of Covishield. We demonstrated the effectiveness of two doses of the ChAdOx1 vaccine against the delta variant in the general population of Chennai. We recommend similar future studies considering emerging variants and newer vaccines. Two-dose vaccine coverage could be ensured to protect against COVID-19 infection.

Lessons from SARS-CoV-2 in India: A data-driven framework for pandemic resilience

India experienced a massive surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths during April to June 2021 despite having controlled the epidemic relatively well during 2020. Using counterfactual predictions from epidemiological disease transmission models, we produce evidence in support of how strengthening public health interventions early would have helped control transmission in the country and significantly reduced mortality during the second wave, even without harsh lockdowns. We argue that enhanced surveillance at district, state, and national levels and constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission are critical for future pandemic responsiveness. Building on our retrospective analysis, we provide a tiered data-driven framework for timely escalation of future interventions as a tool for policy-makers.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination

The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020-June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0-64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9-75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July-mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody among urban Iranian population: findings from the second large population-based cross-sectional study

Background

The first large serosurvey in Iran found a SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence of 17.1% among the general population in the first wave of the epidemic by April, 2020. The purpose of the current study was to assess the seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection among Iranian general population after the third wave of the disease.

Methods

This population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7411 individuals aged ≥10 years old in 16 cities across 15 provinces in Iran between January and March, 2021. We randomly sampled individuals registered in the Iranian electronic health record system based on their national identification numbers and invited them by telephone to a healthcare center for data collection. Presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies was assessed using the SARS-CoV-2 ELISA kits. The participants were also asked about their recent COVID-19-related symptoms, including cough, fever, chills, sore throat, headache, dyspnea, diarrhea, anosmia, conjunctivitis, weakness, myalgia, arthralgia, altered level of consciousness, and chest pain. The seroprevalence was estimated after adjustment for population weighting and test performance.

Results

The overall population-weighted seroprevalence adjusted for test performance was 34.2% (95% CI 31.0-37.3), with an estimated 7,667,874 (95% CI 6,950,412-8,362,915) infected individuals from the 16 cities. The seroprevalence varied between the cities, from the highest estimate in Tabriz (39.2% [95% CI 33.0-45.5]) to the lowest estimate in Kerman (16.0% [95% CI 10.7-21.4]). In the 16 cities studied, 50.9% of the seropositive individuals did not report a history of symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, implying an estimation of 3,902,948 (95% CI 3,537,760-4,256,724) asymptomatic infected individuals.

Conclusions

Nearly one in three individuals were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the studied cities by March 2021. The seroprevalence increased about two-fold between April, 2020, and March, 2021.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13464-7.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for COVID-19 in the metropolis of the Brazilian Amazon

The devastating effect of health system overload was observed after cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) peaked in April 2020 in Belém, a capital metropolis in the Brazilian Amazon. Our results showed a high seroprevalence (39.24%) of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies among the population of the capital of the state of Pará after the first wave of the pandemic. Old age, mixed race, a high school education level, low income and contact with infected individuals are risk factors and may be driving seropositivity and exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in this population. This study is one of the first to provide important information to understand the socioeconomic inequalities, behavioral characteristics and viral transmission dynamics associated with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the capital of the state of Pará, northern Brazil.

Seroprevalence and Dynamics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody among healthcare workers following ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination

Health care workers (HCWs) are in a higher risk of acquiring the disease owing to their regular contact with the patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the seroprevalence among HCWs pre- and post-vaccination. The serological assessment of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody was conducted in pre- and post-vaccination of first or both doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and followed up to 8 months for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and antibody titre. The neutralising antibody was positively correlated with IgG and total antibody. IgG was significantly decreased after 4–6 months post-infection. Almost all HCWs developed IgG after 2 doses of vaccine with comparable IgG to that of the infected HCWs. A follow-up of 6 to 8 months post vaccination showed a significant drop in antibody titre, while 56% of them didn't show a detectable level of IgG, suggesting the need for a booster dose. Around 21% of the vaccinated HCWs with significantly low antibody titre were infected with the SARS-CoV-2, but a majority of them showed mild symptoms and recovered in home isolation without any O2 support. We noticed the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine as evident from the low rate of breakthrough infection with any severe symptoms.

COVID-19 in Tunisia (North Africa): Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the General Population of the Capital City Tunis

Seroprevalence studies are essential to get an accurate estimate of the actual SARS-CoV-2 diffusion within populations. We report on the findings of the first serosurvey conducted in Tunis prior to the implementation of mass vaccination and analyzed factors associated with seropositivity. A household cross sectional survey was conducted (March–April 2021) in Tunis, spanning the end of the second wave and the beginning of the third wave of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to the spike (S-RBD) or the nucleocapsid (N) proteins were detected by in-house ELISA tests. The survey included 1676 individuals from 431 households. The mean age and sex ratio were 43.3 ± 20.9 years and 0.6, respectively. The weighted seroprevalence of anti-N and/or anti-S-RBD IgG antibodies was equal to 38.0% (34.6–41.5). In multivariate analysis, age under 10, no tobacco use, previous diagnosis of COVID-19, a history of COVID-19 related symptoms and contact with a COVID-19 case within the household, were independently associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. More than one third of people living in Tunis obtained antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Further studies are needed to monitor changes in these figures as Tunisian population is confronted to the subsequent epidemic waves and to guide the vaccine strategy.

Use of COVID-19 Test Positivity Rate, Epidemiological, and Clinical Tools for Guiding Targeted Public Health Interventions

India experienced a second wave of COVID-19 infection with an unprecedented upsurge in the number of cases. We have analyzed the effect of different restrictive measures implemented in six Indian states. Further, based on available national and international data on disease transmission and clinical presentation, we have proposed a decision-making matrix for planning adequate resources to combat the future waves of COVID-19. We conclude that pragmatic and well calibrated localized restrictions, tailored as per specific needs may achieve a decline in disease transmission comparable to drastic steps like national lockdowns. Additionally, we have underscored the critical need for countries to generate local epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data alongwith community perception and uptake of various non-pharmaceutical interventions, for effective planning and policy making.

High failure rate of ChAdOx1-nCoV19 immunization against asymptomatic infection in healthcare workers during a Delta variant surge

Immunization is expected to confer protection against infection and severe disease for vaccines while reducing risks to unimmunized populations by inhibiting transmission. Here, based on serial serological studies of an observational cohort of healthcare workers, we show that during a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -Coronavirus 2 Delta-variant outbreak in Delhi, 25.3% (95% Confidence Interval 16.9-35.2) of previously uninfected, ChAdOx1-nCoV19 double vaccinated, healthcare workers were infected within less than two months, based on serology. Induction of anti-spike response was similar between groups with breakthrough infection (541 U/ml, Inter Quartile Range 374) and without (342 U/ml, Inter Quartile Range 497), as was the induction of neutralization activity to wildtype. This was not vaccine failure since vaccine effectiveness estimate based on infection rates in an unvaccinated cohort were about 70% and most infections were asymptomatic. We find that while ChAdOx1-nCoV19 vaccination remains effective in preventing severe infections, it is unlikely to be completely able to block transmission and provide herd immunity.

The authors study a cohort of healthcare workers in India who received two doses of the ChAdOx-1-nCoV19 vaccine during the Delta wave. Using serological data, they infer that 25% of the cohort were infected within 60 days of vaccination, although there were no severe infections leading to hospitalisations.

Infection, cases due to SARS-CoV-2 in rural areas during early COVID-19 vaccination: Findings from sero-survey study in a rural cohort of eastern India

COVID-19 serosurvey provides a better estimation of people who have developed antibody against the infection. But limited information on such serosurveys in rural areas poses many hurdles to understand the epidemiology of the virus and to implement proper control strategies. This study was carried out in the rural catchment area of Model Rural Health Research Unit in Odisha, India during March–April 2021, the initial phase of COVID vaccination. A total of 60 village clusters from four study blocks were identified using probability proportionate to size sampling. From each cluster, 60 households and one eligible participant from each household (60 per cluster) were selected for the collection of blood sample and socio-demographic data. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody was tested using the Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoassay. The overall seroprevalence after adjusting for test performance was 54.21% with an infection to case ratio of 96.89 along with 4.25% partial and 6.79% full immunisation coverage. Highest seroprevalence was observed in the age group of 19–44 years and females had both higher seroprevalence as well as vaccine coverage. People of other backward caste also had higher seropositivity than other caste categories. The study emphasises on continuing surveillance for COVID-19 cases and prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination for susceptible groups for better disease management.

Epidemiological findings for the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic in Maharashtra, India

India is one of the worst affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We carried out comparative analyses of the COVID-19 situation in the Maharashtra state, India for the first and second waves. Epidemiological and demographics data were obtained from open sources and the Government of Maharashtra. Mathematical modeling and analyses were conducted to estimate the epidemiological parameters like basic reproduction number (R0) for the first wave at different times. The districts with a higher percentage of the urban population recorded a higher attack rate during the first wave. However, during the second wave, the rural population was more affected. The effective reproduction number (Re) was estimated for the second wave at different times. The second wave affected more individuals than the first wave due to various factors such as strictness of restrictions or the lack of it and the emergence of new strains.

Seroprevalence and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in Indian cities

Objectives

Serological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations. The sensitivity of the testing assay, Abbott, drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological data difficult to interpret. In this work, we aim to solve this issue.

Methods

We collect longitudinal serological data of Abbott to construct a sensitive decay function. We use the reported COVID-19 deaths to infer the infections, and use the decay function to simulate the seroprevalence and match to the reported seroprevalence in 12 Indian cities.

Results

Our model simulated seroprevalence matchs the reported seroprevalence in most of the 12 Indian cities. We obtain reasonable infection attack rate and infection fatality rate for most of the 12 Indian cities.

Conclusions

Using both reported COVID-19 deaths data and serological survey data, we infer the infection attack rate and infection fatality rate with increased confidence.