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Wagatsuma K, Madaniyazi L, Sheng Ng CF, Saito R, Hashizume M. Characterizing the seasonal influenza disease burden attributable to climate variability: A nationwide time-series modelling study in Japan, 2000-2019. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 263:120065. [PMID: 39341540 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.120065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2024] [Revised: 09/05/2024] [Accepted: 09/25/2024] [Indexed: 10/01/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ambient temperature and humidity are established environmental stressors with regard to influenza infections; however, mapping disease burden is difficult owing to the complexities of the underlying associations and differences in vulnerable population distributions. In this study, we aimed to quantify the burden of influenza attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity in Japan considering geographical differences in vulnerability. METHODS The exposure-lag-response relationships between influenza incidence, ambient temperature, and absolute humidity in all 47 Japanese prefectures for 2000-2019 were quantified using a distributed lag non-linear model for each prefecture; the estimates from all the prefectures were then pooled using a multivariate mixed-effects meta-regression model to derive nationwide average associations. Association between prefecture-specific indicators and the risk were also examined. Attributable risks were estimated for non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity according to the exposure-lag-response relationships obtained before. RESULTS A total of 25,596,525 influenza cases were reported during the study period. Cold and dry conditions significantly increased influenza incidence risk. Compared with the minimum incidence weekly mean ambient temperature (29.8 °C) and the minimum incidence weekly mean absolute humidity (20.2 g/m3), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) of influenza in cold (2.5 °C) and dry (3.6 g/m3) conditions were 2.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78-4.37) and 3.20 (95% CI: 2.37-4.31), respectively. The higher RRs for cold and dry conditions were associated with geographical and climatic indicators corresponding to the central and northern prefectures; demographic, socioeconomic, and health resources indicators showed no clear trends. Finally, 27.25% (95% empirical CI [eCI]: 5.54-36.35) and 32.35% (95% eCI: 22.39-37.87) of all cases were attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity (6,976,300 [95% eCI: 1,420,068-9,306,128] and 8,280,981 [95% eCI: 8,280,981-9,693,532] cases), respectively. CONCLUSIONS These findings could help identify the most vulnerable populations in Japan and design adaptation policies to reduce the attributable burden of influenza due to climate variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keita Wagatsuma
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan; Institute for Research Administration, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan.
| | - Lina Madaniyazi
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Reiko Saito
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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Nichita DR, Dima M, Boboc L, Hâncean MG. Data analysis evidence beyond correlation of a possible causal impact of weather on the COVID-19 spread, mediated by human mobility. Sci Rep 2024; 14:17782. [PMID: 39090143 PMCID: PMC11294627 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-67918-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Previous correlative and modeling approaches indicate influences of environmental factors on COVID-19 spread through atmospheric conditions' impact on virus survival and transmission or host susceptibility. However, causal connections from environmental factors to the pandemic, mediated by human mobility, received less attention. We use the technique of Convergent Cross Mapping to identify the causal connections, beyond correlation at the country level, between pairs of variables associated with weather conditions, human mobility, and the number of COVID-19 cases for 32 European states. Here, we present data-based evidence that the relatively reduced number of cases registered in Northern Europe is related to the causal impact of precipitation on people's decision to spend more time at home and that the relatively large number of cases observed in Southern Europe is linked to people's choice to spend time outdoors during warm days. We also emphasize the channels of the significant impact of the pandemic on human mobility. The weather-human mobility connections inferred here are relevant not only for COVID-19 spread but also for any other virus transmitted through human interactions. These results may help authorities and public health experts contain possible future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic or limit the threats of similar human-to-human transmitted viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denis-Răducu Nichita
- Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania.
- Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Bucharest-Măgurele, Romania.
| | - Mihai Dima
- Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Loredana Boboc
- Faculty of Physics, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
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Smith TP, Mishra S, Dorigatti I, Dixit MK, Tristem M, Pearse WD. Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps. Sci Rep 2024; 14:13326. [PMID: 38858479 PMCID: PMC11164892 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-64044-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 06/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Previous work has shown that environmental variables affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it is unclear whether different strains show similar environmental responses. Here we leverage genetic data on the transmission of three (Alpha, Delta and Omicron BA.1) variants of SARS-CoV-2 throughout England, to unpick the roles that climate and public-health interventions play in the circulation of this virus. We find evidence for enhanced transmission of the virus in colder conditions in the first variant selective sweep (of Alpha, in winter), but limited evidence of an impact of climate in either the second (of Delta, in the summer, when vaccines were prevalent) or third sweep (of Omicron, in the winter, during a successful booster-vaccination campaign). We argue that the results for Alpha are to be expected if the impact of climate is non-linear: we find evidence of an asymptotic impact of temperature on the alpha variant transmission rate. That is, at lower temperatures, the influence of temperature on transmission is much higher than at warmer temperatures. As with the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, however, the overwhelming majority of variation in disease transmission is explained by the intrinsic biology of the virus and public-health mitigation measures. Specifically, when vaccination rates are high, a major driver of the spread of a new variant is it's ability to evade immunity, and any climate effects are secondary (as evidenced for Delta and Omicron). Climate alone cannot describe the transmission dynamics of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas P Smith
- Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK.
| | - Swapnil Mishra
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health and Institute of Data Science, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Dr 2, Singapore, 117549, Singapore
| | - Ilaria Dorigatti
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, 90 Wood Lane, London, W12 OBZ, UK
| | - Mahika K Dixit
- Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Michael Tristem
- Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK
| | - William D Pearse
- Georgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK
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4
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Zhang H, Wang J, Liang Z, Wu Y. Non-linear effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19: An analysis of 440 counties in the americas. Heliyon 2024; 10:e31160. [PMID: 38778977 PMCID: PMC11109897 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2024] [Accepted: 05/10/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Background In the last three years, COVID-19 has caused significant harm to both human health and economic stability. Analyzing the causes and mechanisms of COVID-19 has significant theoretical and practical implications for its prevention and mitigation. The role of meteorological factors in the transmission of COVID-19 is crucial, yet their relationship remains a subject of intense debate. Methods To mitigate the issues arising from short time series, large study units, unrepresentative data and linear research methods in previous studies, this study used counties or districts with populations exceeding 100,000 or 500,000 as the study unit. The commencement of local outbreaks was determined by exceeding 100 cumulative confirmed cases. Pearson correlation analysis, generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) were used to analyze the relationship and lag effect between the daily new cases of COVID-19 and meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, surface pressure, precipitation, wind speed) across 440 counties or districts in seven countries of the Americas, spanning from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021. Results The linear correlations between daily new cases and meteorological indicators such as air temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation were not significant. However, the non-linear correlations were significant. The turning points in the relationship for temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation were 5 °C and 23 °C, 74 % and 750 kJ/m2, respectively. Conclusion The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 is non-linear. There are two thresholds in the relationship with temperature: 5 °C and 23 °C. Below 5 °C and above 23 °C, there is a positive correlation, while between 5 °C and 23 °C, the correlation is negative. Relative humidity and solar radiation show negative correlations, but there is a change in slope at about 74 % and 750 kJ/m2, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Zhang
- School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210023, China
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210023, China
| | - Jian Wang
- School of Geography, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 211200, China
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210023, China
| | - Zhong Liang
- School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210023, China
| | - Yuting Wu
- School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210023, China
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Chong KC, Zhao S, Hung CT, Jia KM, Ho JYE, Lam HCY, Jiang X, Li C, Lin G, Yam CHK, Chow TY, Wang Y, Li K, Wang H, Wei Y, Guo Z, Yeoh EK. Association between meteorological variations and the superspreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 infections. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 188:108762. [PMID: 38776652 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND While many investigations examined the association between environmental covariates and COVID-19 incidence, none have examined their relationship with superspreading, a characteristic describing very few individuals disproportionally infecting a large number of people. METHODS Contact tracing data of all the laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong from February 16, 2020 to April 30, 2021 were used to form the infection clusters for estimating the time-varying dispersion parameter (kt), a measure of superspreading potential. Generalized additive models with identity link function were used to examine the association between negative-log kt (larger means higher superspreading potential) and the environmental covariates, adjusted with mobility metrics that account for the effect of social distancing measures. RESULTS A total of 6,645 clusters covering 11,717 cases were reported over the study period. After centering at the median temperature, a lower ambient temperature at 10th percentile (18.2 °C) was significantly associated with a lower estimate of negative-log kt (adjusted expected change: -0.239 [95 % CI: -0.431 to -0.048]). While a U-shaped relationship between relative humidity and negative-log kt was observed, an inverted U-shaped relationship with actual vapour pressure was found. A higher total rainfall was significantly associated with lower estimates of negative-log kt. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrated a link between meteorological factors and the superspreading potential of COVID-19. We speculated that cold weather and rainy days reduced the social activities of individuals minimizing the interaction with others and the risk of spreading the diseases in high-risk facilities or large clusters, while the extremities of relative humidity may favor the stability and survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ka Chun Chong
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Shi Zhao
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Chi Tim Hung
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Katherine Min Jia
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Janice Ying-En Ho
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Holly Ching Yu Lam
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Xiaoting Jiang
- The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Conglu Li
- The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Guozhang Lin
- The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Carrie Ho Kwan Yam
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Tsz Yu Chow
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Yawen Wang
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Kehang Li
- The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Huwen Wang
- The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Yuchen Wei
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Zihao Guo
- The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
| | - Eng Kiong Yeoh
- Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; The School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
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6
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Villanueva I, Conesa D, Català M, López Cano C, Perramon-Malavez A, Molinuevo D, de Rioja VL, López D, Alonso S, Cardona PJ, Montañola-Sales C, Prats C, Alvarez-Lacalle E. Country-report pattern corrections of new cases allow accurate 2-week predictions of COVID-19 evolution with the Gompertz model. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10775. [PMID: 38730261 PMCID: PMC11087483 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-61233-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 05/01/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Accurate short-term predictions of COVID-19 cases with empirical models allow Health Officials to prepare for hospital contingencies in a two-three week window given the delay between case reporting and the admission of patients in a hospital. We investigate the ability of Gompertz-type empiric models to provide accurate prediction up to two and three weeks to give a large window of preparation in case of a surge in virus transmission. We investigate the stability of the prediction and its accuracy using bi-weekly predictions during the last trimester of 2020 and 2021. Using data from 2020, we show that understanding and correcting for the daily reporting structure of cases in the different countries is key to accomplish accurate predictions. Furthermore, we found that filtering out predictions that are highly unstable to changes in the parameters of the model, which are roughly 20%, reduces strongly the number of predictions that are way-off. The method is then tested for robustness with data from 2021. We found that, for this data, only 1-2% of the one-week predictions were off by more than 50%. This increased to 3% for two-week predictions, and only for three-week predictions it reached 10%.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Villanueva
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
- Department of Information and Communication Technologies, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 08018, Barcelona, Spain
| | - D Conesa
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
| | - M Català
- Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences (NDORMS), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - C López Cano
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
| | - A Perramon-Malavez
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
| | - D Molinuevo
- Medical Image Processing Lab, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Laussane, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - V L de Rioja
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
| | - D López
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
| | - S Alonso
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
| | - P J Cardona
- Microbiology Department, Laboratori Clínic Metropolitana Nord, Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol, Institut Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol (IGTP), Badalona, Catalonia, Spain
- Departament of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola, Catalonia, Spain
- Biomedical Research Networking Centre in Respiratory Diseases CIBERES, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - C Montañola-Sales
- Department of Quantitative Methods, IQS School of Management, Universitat Ramon Llull, 08017, Barcelona, Spain
| | - C Prats
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain
- Comparative Medicine and Bioimage Centre of Catalonia (CMCiB), Fundació Institut d'Investigació en Ciències de la Salut Germans Trias i Pujol, 08916, Badalona, Spain
| | - E Alvarez-Lacalle
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (BarcelonaTech), 08860, Castelldefels, Spain.
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Roncati L, Bartolacelli G, Galeazzi C, Caramaschi S. Trends in the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy during the Summers of 2020 (before Mass Vaccination), 2021 (after Primary Mass Vaccination) and 2022 (after Booster Mass Vaccination): A Real-World Nationwide Study Based on a Population of 58.85 Million People. Pathogens 2023; 12:1376. [PMID: 38133261 PMCID: PMC10747560 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12121376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Like all RNA viruses, SARS-CoV-2 shows a high mutation rate, which has led to the emergence of new variants. Among them, Gamma and Delta developed at the turn of 2020-2021 in Amazonas and India, two ecoregions characterized by hot-humid weather, very similar to that of the summer season in Italy due to climate change, the first Western country to be hit hard by COVID-19 and to experience lockdown restrictions in a democratic framework of 58.85 million people. The aim of our research has been to evaluate the impact of climate on the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy during the summers of 2020 (before mass vaccination), 2021 (after primary mass vaccination) and 2022 (after booster mass vaccination), also taking into account the emergence of these two variants. METHODS During the state of national health emergency and the Draghi government, the Civil Defense Department released the aggregate data coming from the Ministry of Health, the Higher Institute of Health, the Independent Provinces and the Italian Regions daily, in order to inform about the pandemic situation in Italy. Among these data there were the number of deaths, hospitalizations in intensive care units (ICU), non-ICU patients, contagions and performed swabs. By means of a team effort, we have collected and elaborated all these data, comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy during the summers of 2020 (following the nationwide lockdown), 2021 and 2022. RESULTS from the summer of 2020 to the summers of 2021 and 2022 all pandemic trend indicators have shown a sharp worsening in Italy. COVID-19 deaths increased by ≈298% and ≈834%, ICU hospitalizations by ≈386% and ≈310%, non-ICU hospitalizations by ≈224% and ≈600%, contagions by ≈627% and ≈6850% (i.e., ≈68.50 times), swabs by ≈354% and ≈370%, and the mean positivity rate passed from ≈1% to ≈2% and ≈20%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted in any climate, including areas with hot and humid weather, and the emergence of variants adapted to hot-humid climates may result in summer COVID-19 outbreaks, even in neither tropical nor subtropical countries. Although COVID-19 vaccines can confer cross-protection against newly emerging variants, this cross-immunity is naturally not absolute but limited, considering that vaccine protection wanes significantly after 6 months. It follows that a subject vaccinated at the beginning of the winter will not be completely covered in the height of the summer, and we should not forget the unvaccinated. As a final remark, the long and strict nationwide lockdown made it possible to flatten SARS-CoV-2 circulation and, therefore, its negative impact on Italy during the summer of 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luca Roncati
- Department of Surgery, Medicine, Dentistry and Morphological Sciences with Interest in Transplantation, Oncology and Regenerative Medicine, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41121 Modena, Italy
| | - Giulia Bartolacelli
- Department of Surgery, Medicine, Dentistry and Morphological Sciences with Interest in Transplantation, Oncology and Regenerative Medicine, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41121 Modena, Italy
| | - Carlo Galeazzi
- Department of Surgery, Medicine, Dentistry and Morphological Sciences with Interest in Transplantation, Oncology and Regenerative Medicine, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41121 Modena, Italy
| | - Stefania Caramaschi
- Department of Maternal, Infant and Adult Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41121 Modena, Italy
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8
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Kong ZM, Sandhu HS, Qiu L, Wu J, Tian WJ, Chi XJ, Tao Z, Yang CFJ, Wang XJ. Virus Dynamics and Decay in Evaporating Human Saliva Droplets on Fomites. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2023; 57:17737-17750. [PMID: 35904357 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c02311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The transmission of most respiratory pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, occurs via virus-containing respiratory droplets, and thus, factors that affect virus viability in droplet residues on surfaces are of critical medical and public health importance. Relative humidity (RH) is known to play a role in virus survival, with a U-shaped relationship between RH and virus viability. The mechanisms affecting virus viability in droplet residues, however, are unclear. This study examines the structure and evaporation dynamics of virus-containing saliva droplets on fomites and their impact on virus viability using four model viruses: vesicular stomatitis virus, herpes simplex virus 1, Newcastle disease virus, and coronavirus HCoV-OC43. The results support the hypothesis that the direct contact of antiviral proteins and virions within the "coffee ring" region of the droplet residue gives rise to the observed U-shaped relationship between virus viability and RH. Viruses survive much better at low and high RH, and their viability is substantially reduced at intermediate RH. A phenomenological theory explaining this phenomenon and a quantitative model analyzing and correlating the experimentally measured virus survivability are developed on the basis of the observations. The mechanisms by which RH affects virus viability are explored. At intermediate RH, antiviral proteins have optimal influence on virions because of their largest contact time and overlap area, which leads to the lowest level of virus activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zi-Meng Kong
- Key Laboratory of Animal Epidemiology of the Ministry of Agriculture, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Harpal Singh Sandhu
- Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky 40202, United States
- Department of Bioengineering, J.B. Speed School of Engineering, University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky 40292, United States
| | - Lu Qiu
- School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Jicheng Wu
- School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Wen-Jun Tian
- Key Laboratory of Animal Epidemiology of the Ministry of Agriculture, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Xiao-Jing Chi
- Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100005, China
| | - Zhi Tao
- School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Chi-Fu Jeffrey Yang
- Department of Surgery, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, United States
| | - Xiao-Jia Wang
- Key Laboratory of Animal Epidemiology of the Ministry of Agriculture, College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
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9
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Wagatsuma K. Association of Ambient Temperature and Absolute Humidity with the Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Japan. Pathogens 2023; 12:1307. [PMID: 38003771 PMCID: PMC10675148 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12111307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2023] [Revised: 10/28/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
This study aimed to quantify the exposure-lag-response relationship between short-term changes in ambient temperature and absolute humidity and the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of newly confirmed cases, meteorological variables, retail and recreation mobility, and Government Stringency Index were collected for all 47 prefectures of Japan for the study period from 15 February 2020 to 15 October 2022. Generalized conditional Gamma regression models were formulated with distributed lag nonlinear models by adopting the case-time-series design to assess the independent and interactive effects of ambient temperature and absolute humidity on the relative risk (RR) of the time-varying effective reproductive number (Rt). With reference to 17.8 °C, the corresponding cumulative RRs (95% confidence interval) at a mean ambient temperatures of 5.1 °C and 27.9 °C were 1.027 (1.016-1.038) and 0.982 (0.974-0.989), respectively, whereas those at an absolute humidity of 4.2 m/g3 and 20.6 m/g3 were 1.026 (1.017-1.036) and 0.995 (0.985-1.006), respectively, with reference to 10.6 m/g3. Both extremely hot and humid conditions synergistically and slightly reduced the Rt. Our findings provide a better understanding of how meteorological drivers shape the complex heterogeneous dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keita Wagatsuma
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan; ; Tel.: +81-25-227-2129
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan
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10
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Villatoro-García JA, López-Domínguez R, Martorell-Marugán J, Luna JDD, Lorente JA, Carmona-Sáez P. Exploring the interplay between climate, population immunity and SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Mediterranean countries. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 897:165487. [PMID: 37451463 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 07/08/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
The relationship between SARS-CoV-2 transmission and environmental factors has been analyzed in numerous studies since the outbreak of the pandemic, resulting in heterogeneous results and conclusions. This may be due to differences in methodology, considered variables, confounding factors, studied periods and/or lack of adequate data. Furthermore, previous works have reported that the lack of population immunity is the fundamental driver in transmission dynamics and can mask the potential impact of environmental variables. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between climate variables and COVID-19 transmission considering the influence of population immunity. We analyzed two different periods characterized by the absence of vaccination (low population immunity) and a high degree of vaccination (high level of population immunity), respectively. Although this study has some limitations, such us the restriction to a specific climatic zone and the omission of other environmental factors, our results indicate that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may increase independently of temperature and specific humidity in periods with low levels of population immunity while a negative association is found under conditions with higher levels of population immunity in the analyzed regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Antonio Villatoro-García
- Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain; GENYO. Centre for Genomics and Oncological Research: Pfizer / University of Granada / Andalusian Regional Government, PTS Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain
| | - Raúl López-Domínguez
- Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain; GENYO. Centre for Genomics and Oncological Research: Pfizer / University of Granada / Andalusian Regional Government, PTS Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain
| | - Jordi Martorell-Marugán
- GENYO. Centre for Genomics and Oncological Research: Pfizer / University of Granada / Andalusian Regional Government, PTS Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain; Fundación para la Investigación Biosanitaria de Andalucía Oriental-Alejandro Otero (FIBAO), Spain
| | - Juan de Dios Luna
- Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - José Antonio Lorente
- GENYO. Centre for Genomics and Oncological Research: Pfizer / University of Granada / Andalusian Regional Government, PTS Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain; Department of Legal Medicine and Toxicology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Granada, PTS Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain
| | - Pedro Carmona-Sáez
- Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain; GENYO. Centre for Genomics and Oncological Research: Pfizer / University of Granada / Andalusian Regional Government, PTS Granada, 18016 Granada, Spain.
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11
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Murari A, Gelfusa M, Craciunescu T, Gelfusa C, Gaudio P, Bovesecchi G, Rossi R. Effects of environmental conditions on COVID-19 morbidity as an example of multicausality: a multi-city case study in Italy. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1222389. [PMID: 37965519 PMCID: PMC10642182 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), broke out in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in the Hubei province of China. Since then, it has spread practically all over the world, disrupting many human activities. In temperate climates overwhelming evidence indicates that its incidence increases significantly during the cold season. Italy was one of the first nations, in which COVID-19 reached epidemic proportions, already at the beginning of 2020. There is therefore enough data to perform a systematic investigation of the correlation between the spread of the virus and the environmental conditions. The objective of this study is the investigation of the relationship between the virus diffusion and the weather, including temperature, wind, humidity and air quality, before the rollout of any vaccine and including rapid variation of the pollutants (not only their long term effects as reported in the literature). Regarding them methodology, given the complexity of the problem and the sparse data, robust statistical tools based on ranking (Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients) and innovative dynamical system analysis techniques (recurrence plots) have been deployed to disentangle the different influences. In terms of results, the evidence indicates that, even if temperature plays a fundamental role, the morbidity of COVID-19 depends also on other factors. At the aggregate level of major cities, air pollution and the environmental quantities affecting it, particularly the wind intensity, have no negligible effect. This evidence should motivate a rethinking of the public policies related to the containment of this type of airborne infectious diseases, particularly information gathering and traffic management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Murari
- Consorzio RFX (CNR, ENEA, INFN, Università di Padova, Acciaierie Venete SpA), Padua, Italy
- Istituto per la Scienza e la Tecnologia dei Plasmi, CNR, Padua, Italy
| | - Michela Gelfusa
- Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy
| | - Teddy Craciunescu
- National Institute for Laser, Plasma and Radiation Physics, Măgurele, Romania
| | - Claudio Gelfusa
- Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy
| | - Pasquale Gaudio
- Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy
| | - Gianluigi Bovesecchi
- Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy
| | - Riccardo Rossi
- Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy
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12
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Wagatsuma K, Koolhof IS, Saito R. Nonlinear and Multidelayed Effects of Meteorological Drivers on Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Japan. Viruses 2023; 15:1914. [PMID: 37766320 PMCID: PMC10535838 DOI: 10.3390/v15091914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
In this study, we aimed to characterize the nonlinear and multidelayed effects of multiple meteorological drivers on human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection epidemics in Japan. The prefecture-specific weekly time-series of the number of newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and multiple meteorological variables were collected for 47 Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. We combined standard time-series generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the incidence relative risks (IRRs) of HRSV infection and its meteorological drivers. Pooling the 2-week cumulative estimates showed that overall high ambient temperatures (22.7 °C at the 75th percentile compared to 16.3 °C) and high relative humidity (76.4% at the 75th percentile compared to 70.4%) were associated with higher HRSV infection incidence (IRR for ambient temperature 1.068, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.056-1.079; IRR for relative humidity 1.045, 95% CI, 1.032-1.059). Precipitation revealed a positive association trend, and for wind speed, clear evidence of a negative association was found. Our findings provide a basic picture of the seasonality of HRSV transmission and its nonlinear association with multiple meteorological drivers in the pre-HRSV-vaccination and pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era in Japan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keita Wagatsuma
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan;
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan
| | - Iain S. Koolhof
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia;
| | - Reiko Saito
- Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan;
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13
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Dimaschko J, Shlyakhover V, Iabluchanskyi M. Strong biological correlations as a cause of autonomous oscillations in epidemics. J Math Biol 2023; 87:44. [PMID: 37584815 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-01976-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/17/2023]
Abstract
We consider the impact of strong biological correlations on the epidemic process. The biological correlations mean the influence of the environment on the individual state of immunity of the infected person. Accounting for the correlations turns the traditional SIRS model into the 3D Lotka-Volterra model, the parameters of which are uniquely determined by the parameters of the original SIRS model. The measure of the biological correlations in the epidemic is the correlation strength parameter [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are the duration of the infectious period of the disease and the duration of immunity, respectively, both measured in years. If the epidemic is highly correlated ([Formula: see text]), then after the first epidemic outbreak, subsequent oscillations occur, the period [Formula: see text] of which is less than one year. The example is the COVID-19 pandemic. If the epidemic is weakly correlated ([Formula: see text]), the period [Formula: see text] of the oscillations is more than one year. Then in the presence of regular annual outbreaks the oscillations do not have time to manifest themselves. The examples are the ordinary flu annual epidemics. In the absence of the annual epidemic factor, the oscillations can exist and persist regardless of the [Formula: see text] value. The examples are the measles epidemics. The 3D Lotka-Volterra model makes it possible to predict the period [Formula: see text] of the future oscillations based on two known clinical parameters-[Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. This period turns out to be equal to 2π multiplied by the geometric mean of the duration of the infectious period of the disease [Formula: see text] and the duration of immunity [Formula: see text]. The adequacy of the 3D Lotka-Volterra model is supported by examples of the 2017-2019 annual flu epidemics and the 2020-2022 COVID-19 epidemic in Israel, as well as the succession of measles epidemics in the UK between 1940 and 1970.
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14
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Xiong R, Li X. Geospatial analysis in the United States reveals the changing roles of temperature on COVID-19 transmission. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH 2023; 18. [PMID: 37470265 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2023.1213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/21/2023]
Abstract
Environmental factors are known to affect outbreak patterns of infectious disease, but their impacts on the spread of COVID-19 along with the evolution of this relationship over time intervals and in different regions are unclear. This study utilized 3 years of data on COVID-19 cases in the continental United States from 2020 to 2022 and the corresponding weather data. We used regression analysis to investigate weather impacts on COVID-19 spread in the mainland United States and estimate the changes of these impacts over space and time. Temperature exhibited a significant and moderately strong negative correlation for most of the US while relative humidity and precipitation experienced mixed relationships. By regressing temperature factors with the spreading rate of waves, we found temperature change can explain over 20% of the spatial-temporal variation in the COVID-19 spreading, with a significant and negative response between temperature change and spreading rate. The pandemic in the continental United States during 2020-2022 was characterized by seven waves, with different transmission rates and wave peaks concentrated in seven time periods. When repeating the analysis for waves in the seven periods and nine climate zones, we found temperature impacts evolve over time and space, possibly due to virus mutation, changes in population susceptibility, social behavior, and control measures. Temperature impacts became weaker in 6 of 9 climate zones from the beginning of the epidemic to the end of 2022, suggesting that COVID-19 has increasingly adapted to wider weather conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Xiaolong Li
- Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
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15
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Khorasani Esmaili P, Dabiri S, Movahedinia S, Shojaeepour S, Bagheri F, Ranjbar H, Shamsi Meymandi M, Mohebbi E, Farrokhnia M. Evaluation of Laboratory Findings of Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Kerman, Iran. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PATHOLOGY 2023; 18:347-355. [PMID: 37942197 PMCID: PMC10628381 DOI: 10.30699/ijp.2023.1971332.3031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Background & Objective Since December 2019 in Wuhan, China there is a new form of pneumonia and after expansion in other countries, World Health Organization (WHO) called it Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since the clinical laboratory findings have played an important role in the progression of the disease, this study aimed to evaluate the laboratory findings in COVID-19 patients (before vaccination). Methods In this case-control study that was conducted from February to August 2020; the laboratory test status in 101 positive COVID-19 patients was evaluated and compared with 101 healthy individuals. Results The results of our study showed that 21% of patients had low WBC, 24.75% low RBC, 37.62%, low Hb, 18.81% with low HCT, 29.7%, low Plt, 41.58% had High PT, 71.29% high CRP, 17.82% high urea, 11.88% high CR, 15.84% high LDH, 10.89% low sodium, 14.75% low potassium (K). The quantitative examination of blood factors showed that lymph%, mixed%, PLT, HCT, Hb, and RBC were higher in the control group than in the case group. While Neu%, WBC, PTT, CRP, UREA, LDH, K in the patient group were higher than in the control group. Conclusion According to the results of the study, it can be concluded that in the clinical treatment of COVID-19 patients, much attention should be paid to the laboratory indicators to identify and intervene early in critically ill patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Parisa Khorasani Esmaili
- Department of Pathology, Pathology and Stem Cells Research Center, Afzali Pour Medical Faculty, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Shahriar Dabiri
- Department of Pathology, Pathology and Stem Cells Research Center, Afzali Pour Medical Faculty, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Sajjadeh Movahedinia
- Department of Pathology, Pathology and Stem Cells Research Center, Afzali Pour Medical Faculty, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Saeedeh Shojaeepour
- Department of Basic Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Bagheri
- Legal Medicine Research Center, Legal Medicine Organization, Kerman, Iran
| | - Hanieh Ranjbar
- Department of Pathology, Pathology and Stem Cells Research Center, Afzali Pour Medical Faculty, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Manzumeh Shamsi Meymandi
- Department of Pathology, Pathology and Stem Cells Research Center, Afzali Pour Medical Faculty, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Elham Mohebbi
- Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Mehrdad Farrokhnia
- Infectious and Internal Medicine Department, Afzalipour Hospital, Kerman University of Medical Science, Kerman, Iran
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16
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Zhang R, Lai KY, Liu W, Liu Y, Cai W, Webster C, Luo L, Sarkar C. Association of climatic variables with risk of transmission of influenza in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2021. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2023; 252:114217. [PMID: 37418782 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climatic variables constitute important extrinsic determinants of transmission and seasonality of influenza. Yet quantitative evidence of independent associations of viral transmissibility with climatic factors has thus far been scarce and little is known about the potential effects of interactions between climatic factors on transmission. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to examine the associations of key climatic factors with risk of influenza transmission in subtropical Guangzhou. METHODS Influenza epidemics were identified over a 17-year period using the moving epidemic method (MEM) from a dataset of N = 295,981 clinically- and laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Guangzhou. Data on eight key climatic variables were collected from China Meteorological Data Service Centre. Generalized additive model combined with the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were developed to estimate the exposure-lag-response curve showing the trajectory of instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) across the distribution of each climatic variable after adjusting for depletion of susceptible, inter-epidemic effect and school holidays. The potential interaction effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on influenza transmission were also examined. RESULTS Over the study period (2005-21), 21 distinct influenza epidemics with varying peak timings and durations were identified. Increasing air temperature, sunshine, absolute and relative humidity were significantly associated with lower Rt, while the associations were opposite in the case of ambient pressure, wind speed and rainfall. Rainfall, relative humidity, and ambient temperature were the top three climatic contributors to variance in transmissibility. Interaction models found that the detrimental association between high relative humidity and transmissibility was more pronounced at high temperature and rainfall. CONCLUSION Our findings are likely to help understand the complex role of climatic factors in influenza transmission, guiding informed climate-related mitigation and adaptation policies to reduce transmission in high density subtropical cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rong Zhang
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ka Yan Lai
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Wenhui Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Yanhui Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Wenfeng Cai
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Chris Webster
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Urban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Lei Luo
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
| | - Chinmoy Sarkar
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Warneford Hospital, Oxford, OX3 7JX, UK; Urban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
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17
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Castelli C, Castellini M, Comincioli N, Parisi ML, Pontarollo N, Vergalli S. Ecosystem degradation and the spread of Covid-19. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:836. [PMID: 37308607 PMCID: PMC10260383 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11403-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 05/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The linkages between the emergence of zoonotic diseases and ecosystem degradation have been widely acknowledged by the scientific community and policy makers. In this paper we investigate the relationship between human overexploitation of natural resources, represented by the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production Index (HANPP) and the spread of Covid-19 cases during the first pandemic wave in 730 regions of 63 countries worldwide. Using a Bayesian estimation technique, we highlight the significant role of HANPP as a driver of Covid-19 diffusion, besides confirming the well-known impact of population size and the effects of other socio-economic variables. We believe that these findings could be relevant for policy makers in their effort towards a more sustainable intensive agriculture and responsible urbanisation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chiara Castelli
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Vienna, Austria
| | - Marta Castellini
- Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno", University of Padua, Padua, Italy
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy
| | - Nicola Comincioli
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Maria Laura Parisi
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Nicola Pontarollo
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
| | - Sergio Vergalli
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
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18
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Badr HS, Zaitchik BF, Kerr GH, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Hinson P, Colston JM, Kosek MN, Dong E, Du H, Marshall M, Nixon K, Mohegh A, Goldberg DL, Anenberg SC, Gardner LM. Unified real-time environmental-epidemiological data for multiscale modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sci Data 2023; 10:367. [PMID: 37286690 PMCID: PMC10245354 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02276-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023] Open
Abstract
An impressive number of COVID-19 data catalogs exist. However, none are fully optimized for data science applications. Inconsistent naming and data conventions, uneven quality control, and lack of alignment between disease data and potential predictors pose barriers to robust modeling and analysis. To address this gap, we generated a unified dataset that integrates and implements quality checks of the data from numerous leading sources of COVID-19 epidemiological and environmental data. We use a globally consistent hierarchy of administrative units to facilitate analysis within and across countries. The dataset applies this unified hierarchy to align COVID-19 epidemiological data with a number of other data types relevant to understanding and predicting COVID-19 risk, including hydrometeorological data, air quality, information on COVID-19 control policies, vaccine data, and key demographic characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamada S Badr
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Benjamin F Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA.
| | - Gaige H Kerr
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Nhat-Lan H Nguyen
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Yen-Ting Chen
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Patrick Hinson
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Ensheng Dong
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Hongru Du
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Maximilian Marshall
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Arash Mohegh
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
- Health & Exposure Assessment Branch, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, 95812, USA
| | - Daniel L Goldberg
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Susan C Anenberg
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
| | - Lauren M Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
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19
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Santurtún A, Shaman J. Work accidents, climate change and COVID-19. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 871:162129. [PMID: 36773906 PMCID: PMC9911145 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Revised: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The effects brought by climate change and the pandemic upon worker health and wellbeing are varied and necessitate the identification and implementation of improved strategic interventions. This review aims, firstly, to assess how climate change affects occupational accidents, focusing on the impacts of extreme air temperatures and natural disasters; and, secondly, to analyze the role of the pandemic in this context. Our results show that the manifestations of climate change affect workers physically while on the job, psychologically, and by modifying the work environment and conditions; all these factors can cause stress, in turn increasing the risk of suffering a work accident. There is no consensus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on work accidents; however, an increase in adverse mental effects on workers in contact with the public (specifically in healthcare) has been described. It has also been shown that this strain affects the risk of suffering an accident. During the pandemic, many people began to work remotely, and what initially appeared to be a provisional situation has been made permanent or semi-permanent in some positions and companies. However, we found no studies evaluating the working conditions of those who telework. In relation to the combined impact of climate change and the pandemic on occupational health, only publications focusing on the synergistic effect of heat due to the obligation to wear COVID-19-specific PPE, either outdoors or in poorly acclimatized indoor environments, were found. It is essential that preventive services establish new measures, train workers, and determine new priorities for adapting working conditions to these altered circumstances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Santurtún
- Unit of Legal Medicine, Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, University of Cantabria, IDIVAL, Santander, Spain.
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA; Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
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20
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Bernhard GH, Madronich S, Lucas RM, Byrne SN, Schikowski T, Neale RE. Linkages between COVID-19, solar UV radiation, and the Montreal Protocol. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2023; 22:991-1009. [PMID: 36995652 PMCID: PMC10062285 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-023-00373-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023]
Abstract
There are several connections between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), solar UV radiation, and the Montreal Protocol. Exposure to ambient solar UV radiation inactivates SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. An action spectrum describing the wavelength dependence of the inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 by UV and visible radiation has recently been published. In contrast to action spectra that have been assumed in the past for estimating the effect of UV radiation on SARS-CoV-2, the new action spectrum has a large sensitivity in the UV-A (315-400 nm) range. If this "UV-A tail" is correct, solar UV radiation could be much more efficient in inactivating the virus responsible for COVID-19 than previously thought. Furthermore, the sensitivity of inactivation rates to the total column ozone would be reduced because ozone absorbs only a small amount of UV-A radiation. Using solar simulators, the times for inactivating SARS-CoV-2 have been determined by several groups; however, many measurements are affected by poorly defined experimental setups. The most reliable data suggest that 90% of viral particles embedded in saliva are inactivated within ~ 7 min by solar radiation for a solar zenith angle (SZA) of 16.5° and within ~ 13 min for a SZA of 63.4°. Slightly longer inactivation times were found for aerosolised virus particles. These times can become considerably longer during cloudy conditions or if virus particles are shielded from solar radiation. Many publications have provided evidence of an inverse relationship between ambient solar UV radiation and the incidence or severity of COVID-19, but the reasons for these negative correlations have not been unambiguously identified and could also be explained by confounders, such as ambient temperature, humidity, visible radiation, daylength, temporal changes in risk and disease management, and the proximity of people to other people. Meta-analyses of observational studies indicate inverse associations between serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 positivity or severity of COVID-19, although the quality of these studies is largely low. Mendelian randomisation studies have not found statistically significant evidence of a causal effect of 25(OH)D concentration on COVID-19 susceptibility or severity, but a potential link between vitamin D status and disease severity cannot be excluded as some randomised trials suggest that vitamin D supplementation is beneficial for people admitted to a hospital. Several studies indicate significant positive associations between air pollution and COVID-19 incidence and fatality rates. Conversely, well-established cohort studies indicate no association between long-term exposure to air pollution and infection with SARS-CoV-2. By limiting increases in UV radiation, the Montreal Protocol has also suppressed the inactivation rates of pathogens exposed to UV radiation. However, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the expected larger inactivation rates without the Montreal Protocol would have had tangible consequences on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- G H Bernhard
- Biospherical Instruments Inc., San Diego, CA, USA.
| | - S Madronich
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - R M Lucas
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - S N Byrne
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, School of Medical Sciences, Sydney, Australia
| | - T Schikowski
- Leibniz Research Institute for Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - R E Neale
- Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia.
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
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21
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Bernhard GH, Bais AF, Aucamp PJ, Klekociuk AR, Liley JB, McKenzie RL. Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2023; 22:937-989. [PMID: 37083996 PMCID: PMC10120513 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-023-00371-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
This assessment provides a comprehensive update of the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors (aerosols, surface reflectivity, solar activity, and climate) on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The assessment is performed in the context of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments and Adjustments. Changes in UV radiation at low- and mid-latitudes (0-60°) during the last 25 years have generally been small (e.g., typically less than 4% per decade, increasing at some sites and decreasing at others) and were mostly driven by changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosol content, caused partly by climate change and partly by measures to control tropospheric pollution. Without the Montreal Protocol, erythemal (sunburning) UV irradiance at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° would have increased by 10-20% between 1996 and 2020. For southern latitudes exceeding 50°, the UV Index (UVI) would have surged by between 25% (year-round at the southern tip of South America) and more than 100% (South Pole in spring). Variability of erythemal irradiance in Antarctica was very large during the last four years. In spring 2019, erythemal UV radiation was at the minimum of the historical (1991-2018) range at the South Pole, while near record-high values were observed in spring 2020, which were up to 80% above the historical mean. In the Arctic, some of the highest erythemal irradiances on record were measured in March and April 2020. For example in March 2020, the monthly average UVI over a site in the Canadian Arctic was up to 70% higher than the historical (2005-2019) average, often exceeding this mean by three standard deviations. Under the presumption that all countries will adhere to the Montreal Protocol in the future and that atmospheric aerosol concentrations remain constant, erythemal irradiance at mid-latitudes (30-60°) is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2090 by 2-5% in the north and by 4-6% in the south due to recovering ozone. Changes projected for the tropics are ≤ 3%. However, in industrial regions that are currently affected by air pollution, UV radiation will increase as measures to reduce air pollutants will gradually restore UV radiation intensities to those of a cleaner atmosphere. Since most substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases, the phase-out of these substances may have avoided warming by 0.5-1.0 °C over mid-latitude regions of the continents, and by more than 1.0 °C in the Arctic; however, the uncertainty of these calculations is large. We also assess the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on climate, focusing on the poleward shift of climate zones, and discuss the role of the small Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 on the devastating "Black Summer" fires in Australia. Additional topics include the assessment of advances in measuring and modeling of UV radiation; methods for determining personal UV exposure; the effect of solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injections) on UV radiation relevant for plants; and possible revisions to the vitamin D action spectrum, which describes the wavelength dependence of the synthesis of previtamin D3 in human skin upon exposure to UV radiation.
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Affiliation(s)
- G H Bernhard
- Biospherical Instruments Inc, San Diego, CA, USA.
| | - A F Bais
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Physics, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece.
| | - P J Aucamp
- Ptersa Environmental Consultants, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - A R Klekociuk
- Antarctic Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
| | - J B Liley
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
| | - R L McKenzie
- National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
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22
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Lin J, Huang B, Kwan MP, Chen M, Wang Q. COVID-19 infection rate but not severity is associated with availability of greenness in the United States. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 2023; 233:104704. [PMID: 36718417 PMCID: PMC9870763 DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2022] [Revised: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Human exposure to greenness is associated with COVID-19 prevalence and severity, but most relevant research has focused on the relationships between greenness and COVID-19 infection rates. In contrast, relatively little is known about the associations between greenness and COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, which are important for risk assessment, resource allocation, and intervention strategies. Moreover, it is unclear whether greenness could help reduce health inequities by offering more benefits to disadvantaged populations. Here, we estimated the associations between availability of greenness (expressed as population-density-weighted normalized difference vegetation index) and COVID-19 outcomes across the urban-rural continuum gradient in the United States using generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution. We aggregated individual COVID-19 records at the county level, which includes 3,040 counties for COVID-19 case infection rates, 1,397 counties for case hospitalization rates, and 1,305 counties for case fatality rates. Our area-level ecological study suggests that although availability of greenness shows null relationships with COVID-19 case hospitalization and fatality rates, COVID-19 infection rate is statistically significant and negatively associated with more greenness availability. When performing stratified analyses by different sociodemographic groups, availability of greenness shows stronger negative associations for men than for women, and for adults than for the elderly. This indicates that greenness might have greater health benefits for the former than the latter, and thus has limited effects for ameliorating COVID-19 related inequity. The revealed greenness-COVID-19 links across different space, time and sociodemographic groups provide working hypotheses for the targeted design of nature-based interventions and greening policies to benefit human well-being and reduce health inequity. This has important implications for the post-pandemic recovery and future public health crises.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Lin
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, Merced, CA, 95340, USA
| | - Bo Huang
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China
- Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China
| | - Mei-Po Kwan
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China
- Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong, China
- Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Min Chen
- Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Ministry of Education of PRC), Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Qiang Wang
- State Key Laboratory for Subtropical Mountain Ecology of the Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
- School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
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23
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Vallée A, Faranda D, Arutkin M. COVID-19 epidemic peaks distribution in the United-States of America, from epidemiological modeling to public health policies. Sci Rep 2023; 13:4996. [PMID: 36973311 PMCID: PMC10042404 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30014-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2022] [Accepted: 02/14/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 prediction models are characterized by uncertainties due to fluctuating parameters, such as changes in infection or recovery rates. While deterministic models often predict epidemic peaks too early, incorporating these fluctuations into the SIR model can provide a more accurate representation of peak timing. Predicting R0, the basic reproduction number, remains a major challenge with significant implications for government policy and strategy. In this study, we propose a tool for policy makers to show the effects of possible fluctuations in policy strategies on different R0 levels. Results show that epidemic peaks in the United States occur at varying dates, up to 50, 87, and 82 days from the beginning of the second, third, and fourth waves. Our findings suggest that inaccurate predictions and public health policies may result from underestimating fluctuations in infection or recovery rates. Therefore, incorporating fluctuations into SIR models should be considered when predicting epidemic peak times to inform appropriate public health responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre Vallée
- Department of Epidemiology-Data-Biostatistics, Delegation of Clinical Research and Innovation (DRCI), Foch Hospital, 92150, Suresnes, France.
| | - Davide Faranda
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, W6 8RH, UK
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Maxence Arutkin
- School of Chemistry, The Center for Physics and Chemistry of Living Systems, Tel Aviv University, 6997801, Tel Aviv, Israel
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24
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Kerr GH, Badr HS, Barbieri AF, Colston JM, Gardner LM, Kosek MN, Zaitchik BF. Evolving Drivers of Brazilian SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Spatiotemporally Disaggregated Time Series Analysis of Meteorology, Policy, and Human Mobility. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000727. [PMID: 36960326 PMCID: PMC10030230 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Brazil has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Temperature and humidity have been purported as drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but no consensus has been reached in the literature regarding the relative roles of meteorology, governmental policy, and mobility on transmission in Brazil. We compiled data on meteorology, governmental policy, and mobility in Brazil's 26 states and one federal district from June 2020 to August 2021. Associations between these variables and the time-varying reproductive number (R t ) of SARS-CoV-2 were examined using generalized additive models fit to data from the entire 15-month period and several shorter, 3-month periods. Accumulated local effects and variable importance metrics were calculated to analyze the relationship between input variables and R t . We found that transmission is strongly influenced by unmeasured sources of between-state heterogeneity and the near-recent trajectory of the pandemic. Increased temperature generally was associated with decreased transmission and increased specific humidity with increased transmission. However, the impacts of meteorology, policy, and mobility on R t varied in direction, magnitude, and significance across our study period. This time variance could explain inconsistencies in the published literature to date. While meteorology weakly modulates SARS-CoV-2 transmission, daily or seasonal weather variations alone will not stave off future surges in COVID-19 cases in Brazil. Investigating how the roles of environmental factors and disease control interventions may vary with time should be a deliberate consideration of future research on the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaige Hunter Kerr
- Department of Environmental and Occupational HealthGeorge Washington UniversityWashingtonDCUSA
| | - Hamada S. Badr
- Department of Civil and Systems EngineeringJohns Hopkins UniversityBaltimoreMDUSA
- Now at Sales, Market, and Global ServicesAmazon Web ServicesSeattleWAUSA
| | - Alisson F. Barbieri
- Demography DepartmentUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisBelo HorizonteBrazil
| | - Josh M. Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International HealthUniversity of Virginia School of MedicineCharlottesvilleVAUSA
| | - Lauren M. Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems EngineeringJohns Hopkins UniversityBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Margaret N. Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International HealthUniversity of Virginia School of MedicineCharlottesvilleVAUSA
| | - Benjamin F. Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesJohns Hopkins UniversityBaltimoreMDUSA
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25
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Colston JM, Hinson P, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Badr HS, Kerr GH, Gardner LM, Martin DN, Quispe AM, Schiaffino F, Kosek MN, Zaitchik BF. Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis. IJID REGIONS 2023; 6:29-41. [PMID: 36437857 PMCID: PMC9675637 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.11.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Revised: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally, and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled the effects of six weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt ) in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors. Methods Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from the health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May-December, 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted. Findings Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt . Days with radiation above 1000 kJ/m2 saw a 1.3% reduction in Rt , and those with humidity above 50% recorded a 0.9% reduction in Rt . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with lowest population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response, and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of Rt variance. Interpretation Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, while higher levels of solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers - effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures. Funding NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).
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Affiliation(s)
- Josh M. Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Patrick Hinson
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, VA, USA
| | | | - Yen Ting Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Hamada S. Badr
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Gaige H. Kerr
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Lauren M. Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David N. Martin
- Claude Moore Health Sciences Library, University of Virginia School of Medicine, VA, USA
| | | | - Francesca Schiaffino
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Margaret N. Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Benjamin F. Zaitchik
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
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26
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Chu B, Chen R, Liu Q, Wang H. Effects of High Temperature on COVID-19 Deaths in U.S. Counties. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000705. [PMID: 36852181 PMCID: PMC9958002 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Revised: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The United States of America (USA) was afflicted by extreme heat in the summer of 2021 and some states experienced a record-hot or top-10 hottest summer. Meanwhile, the United States was also one of the countries impacted most by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Growing numbers of studies have revealed that meteorological factors such as temperature may influence the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. However, the associations between temperature and COVID-19 severity differ in various study areas and periods, especially in periods of high temperatures. Here we choose 119 US counties with large counts of COVID-19 deaths during the summer of 2021 to examine the relationship between COVID-19 deaths and temperature by applying a two-stage epidemiological analytical approach. We also calculate the years of life lost (YLL) owing to COVID-19 and the corresponding values attributable to high temperature exposure. The daily mean temperature is approximately positively correlated with COVID-19 deaths nationwide, with a relative risk of 1.108 (95% confidence interval: 1.046, 1.173) in the 90th percentile of the mean temperature distribution compared with the median temperature. In addition, 0.02 YLL per COVID-19 death attributable to high temperature are estimated at the national level, and distinct spatial variability from -0.10 to 0.08 years is observed in different states. Our results provide new evidence on the relationship between high temperature and COVID-19 deaths, which might help us to understand the underlying modulation of the COVID-19 pandemic by meteorological variables and to develop epidemic policy response strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bowen Chu
- Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System SciencesSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public HealthKey Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and National Health Commission Key Lab of Health Technology AssessmentFudan UniversityShanghaiChina
| | - Qi Liu
- Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System SciencesSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate ChangeNanjingChina
| | - Haikun Wang
- Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System SciencesSchool of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate ChangeNanjingChina
- Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material CyclingNanjing UniversityNanjingChina
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27
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Harris MJ, Cardenas KJ, Mordecai EA. Social divisions and risk perception drive divergent epidemics and large later waves. EVOLUTIONARY HUMAN SCIENCES 2023; 5:e8. [PMID: 37587926 PMCID: PMC10426078 DOI: 10.1017/ehs.2023.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 02/25/2023] Open
Abstract
During infectious disease outbreaks, individuals may adopt protective measures like vaccination and physical distancing in response to awareness of disease burden. Prior work showed how feedbacks between epidemic intensity and awareness-based behaviour shape disease dynamics. These models often overlook social divisions, where population subgroups may be disproportionately impacted by a disease and more responsive to the effects of disease within their group. We develop a compartmental model of disease transmission and awareness-based protective behaviour in a population split into two groups to explore the impacts of awareness separation (relatively greater in- vs. out-group awareness of epidemic severity) and mixing separation (relatively greater in- vs. out-group contact rates). Using simulations, we show that groups that are more separated in awareness have smaller differences in mortality. Fatigue (i.e. abandonment of protective measures over time) can drive additional infection waves that can even exceed the size of the initial wave, particularly if uniform awareness drives early protection in one group, leaving that group largely susceptible to future infection. Counterintuitively, vaccine or infection-acquired immunity that is more protective against transmission and mortality may indirectly lead to more infections by reducing perceived risk of infection and therefore vaccine uptake. Awareness-based protective behaviour, including awareness separation, can fundamentally alter disease dynamics. Social media summary: Depending on group division, behaviour based on perceived risk can change epidemic dynamics & produce large later waves.
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28
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Zhai G, Qi J, Zhou W, Wang J. The non-linear and interactive effects of meteorological factors on the transmission of COVID-19: A panel smooth transition regression model for cities across the globe. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION : IJDRR 2023; 84:103478. [PMID: 36505181 PMCID: PMC9721135 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103478] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2022] [Revised: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
The ongoing pandemic created by COVID-19 has co-existed with humans for some time now, thus resulting in unprecedented disease burden. Previous studies have demonstrated the non-linear and single effects of meteorological factors on viral transmission and have a question of how to exclude the influence of unrelated confounding factors on the relationship. However, the interactions involved in such relationships remain unclear under complex weather conditions. Here, we used a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to investigate the non-linear interactive impact of meteorological factors on daily new cases of COVID-19 based on a panel dataset of 58 global cities observed between Jul 1, 2020 and Jan 13, 2022. This new approach offers a possibility of assessing interactive effects of meteorological factors on daily new cases and uses fixed effects to control other unrelated confounding factors in a panel of cities. Our findings revealed that an optimal temperature range (0°C-20 °C) for the spread of COVID-19. The effect of RH (relative humidity) and DTR (diurnal temperature range) on infection became less positive (coefficient: 0.0427 to -0.0142; p < 0.05) and negative (coefficient: -0.0496 to -0.0248; p < 0.05) with increasing average temperature(T). The highest risk of infection occurred when the temperature was -10 °C and RH was >80% or when the temperature was 10 °C and DTR was 1 °C. Our findings highlight useful implications for policymakers and the general public.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guangyu Zhai
- School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, 730050, China
| | - Jintao Qi
- School of Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, 730050, China
| | - Wenjuan Zhou
- Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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29
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Nottmeyer L, Armstrong B, Lowe R, Abbott S, Meakin S, O'Reilly KM, von Borries R, Schneider R, Royé D, Hashizume M, Pascal M, Tobias A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Lavigne E, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Kynčl J, Urban A, Orru H, Ryti N, Jaakkola J, Dallavalle M, Schneider A, Honda Y, Ng CFS, Alahmad B, Carrasco-Escobar G, Holobâc IH, Kim H, Lee W, Íñiguez C, Bell ML, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Scovronick N, Coélho MDSZS, Saldiva PHN, Diaz MH, Gasparrini A, Sera F. The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 854:158636. [PMID: 36087670 PMCID: PMC9450475 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Revised: 09/05/2022] [Accepted: 09/05/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally. METHODS We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone. RESULTS We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m3 compared to 11.0 g/m3) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries. CONCLUSION Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luise Nottmeyer
- Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sam Abbott
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sophie Meakin
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kathleen M O'Reilly
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rochelle Schneider
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Φ-Lab, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Paediatric Infectious Disease, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Japan; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | | | | | - Jan Kynčl
- Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Jouni Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Marco Dallavalle
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany; Department of Epidemiology, Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Yasushi Honda
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan; Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | | | | | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
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Rittweger J, Gilardi L, Baltruweit M, Dally S, Erbertseder T, Mittag U, Naeem M, Schmid M, Schmitz MT, Wüst S, Dech S, Jordan J, Antoni T, Bittner M. Temperature and particulate matter as environmental factors associated with seasonality of influenza incidence - an approach using Earth observation-based modeling in a health insurance cohort study from Baden-Württemberg (Germany). Environ Health 2022; 21:131. [PMID: 36527040 PMCID: PMC9755806 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00927-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Influenza seasonality has been frequently studied, but its mechanisms are not clear. Urban in-situ studies have linked influenza to meteorological or pollutant stressors. Few studies have investigated rural and less polluted areas in temperate climate zones. OBJECTIVES We examined influences of medium-term residential exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), NO2, SO2, air temperature and precipitation on influenza incidence. METHODS To obtain complete spatial coverage of Baden-Württemberg, we modeled environmental exposure from data of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. We computed spatiotemporal aggregates to reflect quarterly mean values at post-code level. Moreover, we prepared health insurance data to yield influenza incidence between January 2010 and December 2018. We used generalized additive models, with Gaussian Markov random field smoothers for spatial input, whilst using or not using quarter as temporal input. RESULTS In the 3.85 million cohort, 513,404 influenza cases occurred over the 9-year period, with 53.6% occurring in quarter 1 (January to March), and 10.2%, 9.4% and 26.8% in quarters 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Statistical modeling yielded highly significant effects of air temperature, precipitation, PM2.5 and NO2. Computation of stressor-specific gains revealed up to 3499 infections per 100,000 AOK clients per year that are attributable to lowering ambient mean air temperature from 18.71 °C to 2.01 °C. Stressor specific gains were also substantial for fine particulate matter, yielding up to 502 attributable infections per 100,000 clients per year for an increase from 7.49 μg/m3 to 15.98 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS Whilst strong statistical association of temperature with other stressors makes it difficult to distinguish between direct and mediated temperature effects, results confirm genuine effects by fine particulate matter on influenza infections for both rural and urban areas in a temperate climate. Future studies should attempt to further establish the mediating mechanisms to inform public health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jörn Rittweger
- Institute of Aerospace Medicine, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 51147, Cologne, Germany.
- Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, University Hospital Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
| | - Lorenza Gilardi
- German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Maxana Baltruweit
- Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse Baden-Württemberg (AOK-BW), Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Simon Dally
- Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse Baden-Württemberg (AOK-BW), Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Thilo Erbertseder
- German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Uwe Mittag
- Institute of Aerospace Medicine, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 51147, Cologne, Germany
| | - Muhammad Naeem
- Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat, Pakistan
| | - Matthias Schmid
- Institute of Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Marie-Therese Schmitz
- Institute of Aerospace Medicine, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 51147, Cologne, Germany
- Institute of Medical Biometry, Informatics and Epidemiology, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Sabine Wüst
- German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Stefan Dech
- German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Jens Jordan
- Institute of Aerospace Medicine, German Aerospace Center (DLR), 51147, Cologne, Germany
- Medical Faculty, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Tobias Antoni
- Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse Baden-Württemberg (AOK-BW), Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Michael Bittner
- German Remote Sensing Data Center, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
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Haga L, Ruuhela R, Auranen K, Lakkala K, Heikkilä A, Gregow H. Impact of Selected Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence in Southern Finland during 2020-2021. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:13398. [PMID: 36293991 PMCID: PMC9603127 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192013398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Revised: 10/06/2022] [Accepted: 10/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
We modelled the impact of selected meteorological factors on the daily number of new cases of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa in southern Finland from August 2020 until May 2021. We applied a DLNM (distributed lag non-linear model) with and without various environmental and non-environmental confounding factors. The relationship between the daily mean temperature or absolute humidity and COVID-19 morbidity shows a non-linear dependency, with increased incidence of COVID-19 at low temperatures between 0 to -10 °C or at low absolute humidity (AH) values below 6 g/m3. However, the outcomes need to be interpreted with caution, because the associations found may be valid only for the study period in 2020-2021. Longer study periods are needed to investigate whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has a seasonal pattern similar such as influenza and other viral respiratory infections. The influence of other non-environmental factors such as various mitigation measures are important to consider in future studies. Knowledge about associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 can be useful information for policy makers and the education and health sector to predict and prepare for epidemic waves in the coming winters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Haga
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological and Marine Research Programme, Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Reija Ruuhela
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological and Marine Research Programme, Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kari Auranen
- The Center of Statistics, University of Turku, 20500 Turku, Finland
| | - Kaisa Lakkala
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space and Earth Observation Centre, Earth Observation Research, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research Programme, Atmospheric Research Center of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anu Heikkilä
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research Programme, Atmospheric Research Center of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Hilppa Gregow
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological and Marine Research Programme, Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Subramanian S, Griffin G, Hewison M, Hopkin J, Kenny RA, Laird E, Quinton R, Thickett D, Rhodes JM. Vitamin D and COVID-19-Revisited. J Intern Med 2022; 292:604-626. [PMID: 35798564 PMCID: PMC9349414 DOI: 10.1111/joim.13536] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Vitamin D, when activated to 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, is a steroid hormone that induces responses in several hundred genes, including many involved in immune responses to infection. Without supplementation, people living in temperate zones commonly become deficient in the precursor form of vitamin D, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, during winter, as do people who receive less sunlight exposure or those with darker skin pigmentation. Studies performed pre-COVID-19 have shown significant but modest reduction in upper respiratory infections in people receiving regular daily vitamin D supplementation. Vitamin D deficiency, like the risk of severe COVID-19, is linked with darker skin colour and also with obesity. Greater risk from COVID-19 has been associated with reduced ultraviolet exposure. Various studies have examined serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, either historical or current, in patients with COVID-19. The results of these studies have varied but the majority have shown an association between vitamin D deficiency and increased risk of COVID-19 illness or severity. Interventional studies of vitamin D supplementation have so far been inconclusive. Trial protocols commonly allow control groups to receive low-dose supplementation that may be adequate for many. The effects of vitamin D supplementation on disease severity in patients with existing COVID-19 are further complicated by the frequent use of large bolus dose vitamin D to achieve rapid effects, even though this approach has been shown to be ineffective in other settings. As the pandemic passes into its third year, a substantial role of vitamin D deficiency in determining the risk from COVID-19 remains possible but unproven.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sreedhar Subramanian
- Department of GastroenterologyCambridge University Hospitals Foundation TrustCambridgeUK
| | - George Griffin
- Department of Infectious Diseases and MedicineSt George's UniversityLondonUK
| | - Martin Hewison
- Institute of Metabolism and Systems ResearchUniversity of BirminghamBirminghamUK
| | - Julian Hopkin
- College of MedicineInstitute of Life ScienceSwansea UniversitySwanseaUK
| | - Rose Anne Kenny
- Department of Medical GerontologySchool of MedicineTrinity College DublinDublinIreland
| | - Eamon Laird
- The Irish Longitudinal Study on AgeingSchool of MedicineTrinity College DublinDublinIreland
| | - Richard Quinton
- Department of EndocrinologyTranslational and Clinical Research InstituteNewcastle University Faculty of Medical SciencesNewcastle upon TyneUK
| | - David Thickett
- Institute of Inflammation and AgeingUniversity of Birmingham College of Medical and Dental SciencesBirminghamUK
| | - Jonathan M. Rhodes
- Molecular Physiology and Cell SignallingInstitute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative BiologyUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
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Vinceti M, Balboni E, Rothman KJ, Teggi S, Bellino S, Pezzotti P, Ferrari F, Orsini N, Filippini T. Substantial impact of mobility restrictions on reducing COVID-19 incidence in Italy in 2020. J Travel Med 2022; 29:6649390. [PMID: 35876268 PMCID: PMC9384467 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2022] [Revised: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Italy was the first country after China to be severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2020. The country responded swiftly to the outbreak with a nationwide two-step lockdown, the first one light and the second one tight. By analyzing 2020 national mobile phone movements, we assessed how lockdown compliance influenced its efficacy. METHODS We measured individual mobility during the first epidemic wave with mobile phone movements tracked through carrier networks, and related this mobility to daily new SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions, intensive care admissions and deaths attributed to COVID-19, taking into account reason for travel (work-related or not) and the means of transport. RESULTS The tight lockdown resulted in an 82% reduction in mobility for the entire country and was effective in swiftly curbing the outbreak as indicated by a shorter time-to-peak of all health outcomes, particularly for provinces with the highest mobility reductions and the most intense COVID-19 spread. Reduction of work-related mobility was accompanied by a nearly linear benefit in outbreak containment; work-unrelated movements had a similar effect only for restrictions exceeding 50%. Reduction in mobility by car and by airplane was nearly linearly associated with a decrease in most COVID-19 health outcomes, while for train travel reductions exceeding 55% had no additional beneficial effects. The absence of viral variants and vaccine availability during the study period eliminated confounding from these two sources. CONCLUSIONS Adherence to the COVID-19 tight lockdown during the first wave in Italy was high and effective in curtailing the outbreak. Any work-related mobility reduction was effective, but only high reductions in work-unrelated mobility restrictions were effective. For train travel, there was a threshold above which no further benefit occurred. These findings could be particular to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but might also apply to other communicable infections with comparable transmission dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Vinceti
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125 Modena, Italy.,Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Erica Balboni
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125 Modena, Italy
| | - Kenneth J Rothman
- Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA.,RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA
| | - Sergio Teggi
- Department of Engineering 'Enzo Ferrari', University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125 Modena, Italy
| | - Stefania Bellino
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health, 00161 Rome, Italy
| | - Patrizio Pezzotti
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health, 00161 Rome, Italy
| | | | - Nicola Orsini
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, 11365 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Tommaso Filippini
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125 Modena, Italy.,School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, 1995 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA
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Cereda G, Viscardi C, Baccini M. Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis. Front Public Health 2022; 10:919456. [PMID: 36187637 PMCID: PMC9523586 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.919456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 08/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
During autumn 2020, Italy faced a second important SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave. We explored the time pattern of the instantaneous reproductive number, R 0(t), and estimated the prevalence of infections by region from August to December calibrating SIRD models on COVID-19-related deaths, fixing at values from literature Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and average infection duration. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was performed on the regional SIRD models. Then, we used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to combine and compare the regional results and investigate their heterogeneity. The meta-analytic R 0(t) curves were similar in the Northern and Central regions, while a less peaked curve was estimated for the South. The maximum R 0(t) ranged from 2.15 (South) to 2.61 (North) with an increase following school reopening and a decline at the end of October. The predictive performance of the regional models, assessed through cross validation, was good, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 7.2% and 10.9% when considering prediction horizons of 7 and 14 days, respectively. Average temperature, urbanization, characteristics of family medicine and healthcare system, economic dynamism, and use of public transport could partly explain the regional heterogeneity. The GSA indicated the robustness of the regional R 0(t) curves to different assumptions on IFR. The infectious period turned out to have a key role in determining the model results, but without compromising between-region comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giulia Cereda
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy,Florence Center for Data Science, University of Florence, Florence, Italy,*Correspondence: Giulia Cereda
| | - Cecilia Viscardi
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy,Florence Center for Data Science, University of Florence, Florence, Italy,Cecilia Viscardi
| | - Michela Baccini
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy,Florence Center for Data Science, University of Florence, Florence, Italy,Michela Baccini
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35
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Louw AS, Fu J, Raut A, Zulhilmi A, Yao S, McAlinn M, Fujikawa A, Siddique MT, Wang X, Yu X, Mandvikar K, Avtar R. The role of remote sensing during a global disaster: COVID-19 pandemic as case study. REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS : SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 27:100789. [PMID: 35774725 PMCID: PMC9212936 DOI: 10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100789] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Revised: 05/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Remotely sensed imagery is used as a tool to aid decision makers and scientists in a variety of fields. A recent world event in which satellite imagery was extensively relied on by a variety of stakeholders was the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article we aim to give an overview of the types of information offered through remote sensing (RS) to help address different issues related to the pandemic. We also discuss about the stakeholders that benefited from the data, and the value added by its availability. The content is presented under four sub-sections; namely (1) the use of RS in real-time decision-making and strategic planning during the pandemic; how RS revealed the (2) environmental changes and (3) social and economic impacts caused by the pandemic. And (4) how RS informed our understanding of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen responsible for the pandemic. High resolution optical imagery offered updated on-the-ground data for e.g., humanitarian aid organizations, and informed operational decision making of shipping companies. Change in the intensity of air and water pollution after reduced anthropogenic activities around the world were captured by remote sensing - supplying concrete evidence that can help inform improved environmental policy. Several economic indicators were measured from satellite imagery, showing the spatiotemporal component of economic impacts caused by the global pandemic. Finally, satellite based meteorological data supported epidemiological studies of environmental disease determinants. The varied use of remote sensing during the COVID-19 pandemic affirms the value of this technology to society, especially in times of large-scale disasters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Albertus S Louw
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Jinjin Fu
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Aniket Raut
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Azim Zulhilmi
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Shuyu Yao
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Miki McAlinn
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Akari Fujikawa
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Muhammad Taimur Siddique
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Xiaoxiao Wang
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Xinyue Yu
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Kaushik Mandvikar
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
| | - Ram Avtar
- Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
- Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
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36
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Menon NG, Mohapatra S. The COVID-19 pandemic: Virus transmission and risk assessment. CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & HEALTH 2022; 28:100373. [PMID: 35669052 PMCID: PMC9156429 DOI: 10.1016/j.coesh.2022.100373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
The coronaviruses are the largest known RNA viruses of which SASR-CoV-2 has been spreading continuously due to its repeated mutation triggered by several environmental factors. Multiple human interventions and lessons learned from the SARS 2002 outbreak helped reduce its spread considerably, and thus, the virus was contained but the emerging mutations burdened the medical facility leading to many deaths in the world. As per the world health organization (WHO) droplet mode transmission is the most common mode of SASR-CoV-2 transmission to which environmental factors including temperature and humidity play a major role. This article highlights the responsibility of environmental causes that would affect the distribution and fate of the virus. Recent development in the risk assessment models is also covered in this article.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Gayathri Menon
- Centre for Research in Nanotechnology and Science (CRNTS), Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India
| | - Sanjeeb Mohapatra
- NUS Environmental Research Institute, National University of Singapore, 1 Create Way, Create Tower, #15-02, Singapore 138602, Singapore
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37
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Gavenčiak T, Monrad JT, Leech G, Sharma M, Mindermann S, Bhatt S, Brauner J, Kulveit J. Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1010435. [PMID: 36026483 PMCID: PMC9455844 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Revised: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Although seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. While there is a sizable and growing literature on environmental drivers of COVID-19 transmission, recent reviews have highlighted conflicting and inconclusive findings. This indeterminacy partly owes to the fact that seasonal variation relates to viral transmission by a complicated web of causal pathways, including many interacting biological and behavioural factors. Since analyses of specific factors cannot determine the aggregate strength of seasonal forcing, we sidestep the challenge of disentangling various possible causal paths in favor of a holistic approach. We model seasonality as a sinusoidal variation in transmission and infer a single Bayesian estimate of the overall seasonal effect. By extending two state-of-the-art models of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects and their datasets covering 143 regions in temperate Europe, we are able to adjust our estimates for the role of both NPIs and mobility patterns in reducing transmission. We find strong seasonal patterns, consistent with a reduction in the time-varying reproduction number R(t) (the expected number of new infections generated by an infectious individual at time t) of 42.1% (95% CI: 24.7%-53.4%) from the peak of winter to the peak of summer. These results imply that the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is comparable in magnitude to the most effective individual NPIs but less than the combined effect of multiple interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomáš Gavenčiak
- Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joshua Teperowski Monrad
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gavin Leech
- Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Mrinank Sharma
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Sören Mindermann
- Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Samir Bhatt
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jan Brauner
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jan Kulveit
- Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Gavenčiak T, Monrad JT, Leech G, Sharma M, Mindermann S, Bhatt S, Brauner J, Kulveit J. Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1010435. [PMID: 36026483 DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.10.21258647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Revised: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 05/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Although seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. While there is a sizable and growing literature on environmental drivers of COVID-19 transmission, recent reviews have highlighted conflicting and inconclusive findings. This indeterminacy partly owes to the fact that seasonal variation relates to viral transmission by a complicated web of causal pathways, including many interacting biological and behavioural factors. Since analyses of specific factors cannot determine the aggregate strength of seasonal forcing, we sidestep the challenge of disentangling various possible causal paths in favor of a holistic approach. We model seasonality as a sinusoidal variation in transmission and infer a single Bayesian estimate of the overall seasonal effect. By extending two state-of-the-art models of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects and their datasets covering 143 regions in temperate Europe, we are able to adjust our estimates for the role of both NPIs and mobility patterns in reducing transmission. We find strong seasonal patterns, consistent with a reduction in the time-varying reproduction number R(t) (the expected number of new infections generated by an infectious individual at time t) of 42.1% (95% CI: 24.7%-53.4%) from the peak of winter to the peak of summer. These results imply that the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is comparable in magnitude to the most effective individual NPIs but less than the combined effect of multiple interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomáš Gavenčiak
- Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joshua Teperowski Monrad
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gavin Leech
- Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Mrinank Sharma
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Sören Mindermann
- Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Samir Bhatt
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jan Brauner
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning (OATML) Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jan Kulveit
- Centre for Theoretical Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
- Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Zhang R, Wang Y, Lv Z, Pei S. Evaluating the impact of stay-at-home and quarantine measures on COVID-19 spread. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:648. [PMID: 35896977 PMCID: PMC9326419 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07636-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, stay-at-home and quarantine measures were widely adopted and enforced. Understanding the effectiveness of stay-at-home and quarantine measures can inform decision-making and control planning during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and for future disease outbreaks. METHODS In this study, we use mathematical models to evaluate the impact of stay-at-home and quarantine measures on COVID-19 spread in four cities that experienced large-scale outbreaks in the spring of 2020: Wuhan, New York, Milan, and London. We develop a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR)-type model with components of self-isolation and quarantine and couple this disease transmission model with a data assimilation method. By calibrating the model to case data, we estimate key epidemiological parameters before lockdown in each city. We further examine the impact of stay-at-home and quarantine rates on COVID-19 spread after lockdown using counterfactual model simulations. RESULTS Results indicate that self-isolation of susceptible population is necessary to contain the outbreak. At a given rate, self-isolation of susceptible population induced by stay-at-home orders is more effective than quarantine of SARS-CoV-2 contacts in reducing effective reproductive numbers [Formula: see text]. Variation in self-isolation and quarantine rates can also considerably affect the duration of outbreaks, attack rates and peak timing. We generate counterfactual simulations to estimate effectiveness of stay-at-home and quarantine measures. Without these two measures, the cumulative confirmed cases could be much higher than reported numbers within 40 days after lockdown in Wuhan, New York, Milan, and London. CONCLUSIONS Our findings underscore the essential role of stay-at-home orders and quarantine of SARS-CoV-2 contacts during the early phase of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renquan Zhang
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Dalian University of Technology, 116024 Dalian, China
| | - Yu Wang
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Dalian University of Technology, 116024 Dalian, China
| | - Zheng Lv
- School of Control Science and Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, 116024 Dalian, China
| | - Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 10032 New York, USA
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Song C, Yin H, Shi X, Xie M, Yang S, Zhou J, Wang X, Tang Z, Yang Y, Pan J. Spatiotemporal disparities in regional public risk perception of COVID-19 using Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) series models across Chinese cities. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION : IJDRR 2022; 77:103078. [PMID: 35664453 PMCID: PMC9148270 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Regional public attention has been critical during the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting the effectiveness of sub-national non-pharmaceutical interventions. While studies have focused on public attention at the national level, sub-national public attention has not been well investigated. Understanding sub-national public attention can aid local governments in designing regional scientific guidelines, especially in large countries with substantial spatiotemporal disparities in the spread of infections. Here, we evaluated the online public attention to the COVID-19 pandemic using internet search data and developed a regional public risk perception index (PRPI) that depicts heterogeneous associations between local pandemic risk and public attention across 366 Chinese cities. We used the Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) model, a full-map local regression for estimating spatiotemporal heterogeneous relationships of variables, and improved it to the Bayesian Spatiotemporally Interacting Varying Coefficients (STIVC) model to incorporate space-time interaction non-stationarity at spatial or temporal stratified scales. COVID-19 daily cases (median contribution 82.6%) was the most critical factor affecting public attention, followed by urban socioeconomic conditions (16.7%) and daily population mobility (0.7%). After adjusting national and provincial impacts, city-level influence factors accounted for 89.4% and 58.6% in spatiotemporal variations of public attention. Spatiotemporal disparities were substantial among cities and provinces, suggesting that observing national-level public dynamics alone was insufficient. Multi-period PRPI maps revealed clusters and outlier cities with potential public panic and low health literacy. Bayesian STVC series models are systematically proposed and provide a multi-level spatiotemporal heterogeneous analytical framework for understanding collective human responses to major public health emergencies and disasters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Song
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610044, China
- Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Centre for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
| | - Hao Yin
- Department of Economics, University of Southern California, CA, 90089, USA
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, BC, V6T 1Z3, Canada
| | - Xun Shi
- Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA
| | - Mingyu Xie
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Centre for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
| | - Shujuan Yang
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610044, China
| | - Junmin Zhou
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610044, China
| | - Xiuli Wang
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610044, China
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Centre for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
| | - Zhangying Tang
- State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610500, China
| | - Yili Yang
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Centre for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
| | - Jay Pan
- HEOA Group, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610044, China
- Institute for Healthy Cities and West China Research Centre for Rural Health Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
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Reis J, Buguet A, Román GC, Spencer PS. The COVID-19 pandemic, an environmental neurology perspective. Rev Neurol (Paris) 2022; 178:499-511. [PMID: 35568518 PMCID: PMC8938187 DOI: 10.1016/j.neurol.2022.02.455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2022] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Neurologists have a particular interest in SARS-CoV-2 because the nervous system is a major participant in COVID-19, both in its acute phase and in its persistent post-COVID phase. The global spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection has revealed most of the challenges and risk factors that humanity will face in the future. We review from an environmental neurology perspective some characteristics that have underpinned the pandemic. We consider the agent, SARS-CoV-2, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 as influenced by environmental factors, its impact on the brain and some containment measures on brain health. Several questions remain, including the differential clinical impact of variants, the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on sleep and wakefulness, and the neurological components of Long-COVID syndrome. We touch on the role of national leaders and public health policies that have underpinned management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased awareness, anticipation and preparedness are needed to address comparable future challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Reis
- Université de Strasbourg, 67000 Strasbourg, France; Association RISE, 67205 Oberhausbergen, France.
| | - A Buguet
- General (r) French Army Health Services, Malaria Research Unit, UMR 5246 CNRS, Claude-Bernard Lyon-1 University, 69622 Villeurbanne, France.
| | - G C Román
- Department of Neurology, Neurological Institute, Houston Methodist Hospital, Houston, TX, USA.
| | - P S Spencer
- Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, Oregon Institute of Occupational Health Sciences, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA.
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Lai H, Tao Y, Shen M, Li R, Zou M, Zhang L, Zhang L. What Is the Impact of Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics on the Pre-delta COVID-19 Epidemic Size in the United States? Pathogens 2022; 11:576. [PMID: 35631097 PMCID: PMC9147779 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens11050576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Revised: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
It is still uncertain how the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in its early phase and subsequent waves contributed to the pre-delta epidemic size in the United States. We identified the early and subsequent characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic and the correlation between these characteristics and the pre-delta epidemic size. Most (96.1% (49/51)) of the states entered a fast-growing phase before the accumulative number of cases reached (30). The days required for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 was 5.6 (5.1−6.1) days. As of 31 March 2021, all 51 states experienced at least 2 waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, 23.5% (12/51) experienced 3 waves, and 15.7% (8/51) experienced 4 waves, the epidemic size of COVID-19 was 19,275−3,669,048 cases across the states. The pre-delta epidemic size was significantly correlated with the duration from 30 to 100 cases (p = 0.003, r = −0.405), the growth rate of the fast-growing phase (p = 0.012, r = 0.351), and the peak cases in the subsequent waves (K1 (p < 0.001, r = 0.794), K2 (p < 0.001, r = 0.595), K3 (p < 0.001, r = 0.977), and K4 (p = 0.002, r = 0.905)). We observed that both early and subsequent epidemic characteristics contribute to the pre-delta epidemic size of COVID-19. This identification is important to the prediction of the emerging viral infectious diseases in the primary stage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Lai
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China; (H.L.); (M.S.); (R.L.); (M.Z.); (L.Z.)
| | - Yusha Tao
- SESH (Social Entrepreneurship to Spur Health) Global, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Project-China, Guangzhou 510095, China;
| | - Mingwang Shen
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China; (H.L.); (M.S.); (R.L.); (M.Z.); (L.Z.)
- Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi’an 710061, China
| | - Rui Li
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China; (H.L.); (M.S.); (R.L.); (M.Z.); (L.Z.)
| | - Maosheng Zou
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China; (H.L.); (M.S.); (R.L.); (M.Z.); (L.Z.)
| | - Leilei Zhang
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China; (H.L.); (M.S.); (R.L.); (M.Z.); (L.Z.)
| | - Lei Zhang
- China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an 710061, China; (H.L.); (M.S.); (R.L.); (M.Z.); (L.Z.)
- Artificial Intelligence and Modelling in Epidemiology Program, Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia
- Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
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Cervigni E, Hickling S, Olaru D. Using aggregated mobile phone location data to compare the realised foodscapes of different socio-economic groups. Health Place 2022; 75:102786. [PMID: 35313208 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2021] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
The foodscape (the built food environment) is considered one of the driving factors of the higher burden of obesity and chronic disease observed in low socio-economic status (SES) groups. Traditional data collection methods struggle to accurately capture actual access and exposure to the foodscape (realised foodscape). We assess the use of anonymised mobile phone location data (location data) in foodscape studies by applying them to a case study in Perth, Western Australia to test the hypothesis that lower SES groups have poorer realised foodscapes than high SES groups. Kernel density estimation was used to calculate realised foodscapes of different SES groups and home foodscape typologies, which were compared to home foodscapes of the different groups. The location data enabled us to measure realised foodscapes of multiple groups over an extended period and at the city scale. Low SES groups had poor availability of food outlets, including unhealthy outlets, in their home and realised foodscapes and may be more susceptible to a poor home foodscape because of low mobility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleanor Cervigni
- School of Social Sciences, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia.
| | - Siobhan Hickling
- School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia.
| | - Doina Olaru
- Business School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia.
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Cappi R, Casini L, Tosi D, Roccetti M. Questioning the seasonality of SARS-COV-2: a Fourier spectral analysis. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e061602. [PMID: 35443965 PMCID: PMC9021461 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To investigate the hypothesis of a seasonal periodicity, driven by climate, in the contagion resurgence of COVID-19 in the period February 2020-December 2021. DESIGN An observational study of 30 countries from different geographies and climates. For each country, a Fourier spectral analysis was performed with the series of the daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, looking for peaks in the frequency spectrum that could correspond to a recurrent cycle of a given length. SETTINGS Public data of the daily SARS-CoV-2 infections from 30 different countries and five continents. PARTICIPANTS Only publicly available data were utilised for this study, patients and/or the public were not involved in any phase of this study. RESULTS All the 30 investigated countries have seen the recurrence of at least one COVID-19 wave, repeating over a period in the range 3-9 months, with a peak of magnitude at least half as large as that of the highest peak ever experienced since the beginning of the pandemic until December 2021. The distance in days between the two highest peaks in each country was computed and then averaged over the 30 countries, yielding a mean of 190 days (SD 100). This suggests that recurrent outbreaks may repeat with cycles of different lengths, without a precisely predictable seasonality of 1 year. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that COVID-19 outbreaks are likely to occur worldwide, with cycles of repetition of variable lengths. The Fourier analysis of 30 different countries has not found evidence in favour of a seasonality that recurs over 1year period, solely or with a precisely fixed periodicity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Cappi
- Department of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, University of Insubria, Varese, Lombardia, Italy
| | - Luca Casini
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy
| | - Davide Tosi
- Department of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, University of Insubria, Varese, Lombardia, Italy
| | - Marco Roccetti
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy
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45
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Ai H, Nie R, Wang X. Evaluation of the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 prevalence by the distributed lag nonlinear model. J Transl Med 2022; 20:170. [PMID: 35410263 PMCID: PMC8995909 DOI: 10.1186/s12967-022-03371-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Although numerous studies have explored the impact of meteorological factors on the epidemic of COVID-19, their relationship remains controversial and needs to be clarified. Methods We assessed the risk effect of various meteorological factors on COVID-19 infection using the distributed lag nonlinear model, based on related data from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, in eight countries, including Portugal, Greece, Egypt, South Africa, Paraguay, Uruguay, South Korea, and Japan, which are in Europe, Africa, South America, and Asia, respectively. We also explored associations between COVID-19 prevalence and individual meteorological factors by the Spearman’s rank correlation test. Results There were significant non-linear relationships between both temperature and relative humidity and COVID-19 prevalence. In the countries located in the Northern Hemisphere with similar latitudes, the risk of COVID-19 infection was the highest at temperature below 5 ℃. In the countries located in the Southern Hemisphere with similar latitudes, their highest infection risk occurred at around 15 ℃. Nevertheless, in most countries, high temperature showed no significant association with reduced risk of COVID-19 infection. The effect pattern of relative humidity on COVID-19 depended on the range of its variation in countries. Overall, low relative humidity was correlated with increased risk of COVID-19 infection, while the high risk of infection at extremely high relative humidity could occur in some countries. In addition, relative humidity had a longer lag effect on COVID-19 than temperature. Conclusions The effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 prevalence are nonlinear and hysteretic. Although low temperature and relative humidity may lower the risk of COVID-19, high temperature or relative humidity could also be associated with a high prevalence of COVID-19 in some regions.
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Weaver AK, Head JR, Gould CF, Carlton EJ, Remais JV. Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Incidence and Severity. Annu Rev Public Health 2022; 43:271-291. [PMID: 34982587 PMCID: PMC10044492 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-052120-101420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Emerging evidence supports a link between environmental factors-including air pollution and chemical exposures, climate, and the built environment-and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and severity. Climate, air pollution, and the built environment have long been recognized to influence viral respiratory infections, and studies have established similar associations with COVID-19 outcomes. More limited evidence links chemical exposures to COVID-19. Environmental factors were found to influence COVID-19 through four major interlinking mechanisms: increased risk of preexisting conditions associated with disease severity; immune system impairment; viral survival and transport; and behaviors that increase viral exposure. Both data and methodologic issues complicate the investigation of these relationships, including reliance on coarse COVID-19 surveillance data; gaps in mechanistic studies; and the predominance of ecological designs. We evaluate the strength of evidence for environment-COVID-19 relationships and discuss environmental actions that might simultaneously address the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental determinants of health, and health disparities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda K Weaver
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA; ,
| | - Jennifer R Head
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA;
| | - Carlos F Gould
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA;
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Elizabeth J Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Anschutz, Aurora, Colorado, USA;
| | - Justin V Remais
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA; ,
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Bell T. Do solar cycles explain the emergence of COVID-19? Neutron count comparison between the solar minima of 2008-2009 and 2019-2020. CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & HEALTH 2022; 26:100333. [PMID: 35194566 PMCID: PMC8855047 DOI: 10.1016/j.coesh.2022.100333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Cosmic rays are believed to be mutagenic and can stimulate virus mutation through point mutations. Neutron count on Earth ground stations is a reliable proxy to quantify cosmic ray flux. A previous study reported that the maximum flux of cosmic rays in November 2019 could be related to the emergence of COVID-19 (late November to early December). Using the latest neutron count data, this study investigated if the data from 2019 to 2020 could specifically explain the emergence of pandemic (COVID-19). The results indicate that there is no significant difference between the previous two last solar minima datasets (2008-2009 and 2019-2020; n = 24, p = 0.60). This suggests that the solar minima of 2019-2020 did not experience an increase in cosmic rays and the emergence of COVID-19 could not be solely explained by cosmic ray flux caused by solar cycles (space weather change).
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomoko Bell
- Water and Environmental Research Institute of the Western Pacific, University of Guam, UOG Station Mangilao, GU 96923, Guam
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48
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Barnes PW, Robson TM, Neale PJ, Williamson CE, Zepp RG, Madronich S, Wilson SR, Andrady AL, Heikkilä AM, Bernhard GH, Bais AF, Neale RE, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Klekociuk AR, Martinez-Abaigar J, Robinson SA, Wang QW, Banaszak AT, Häder DP, Hylander S, Rose KC, Wängberg SÅ, Foereid B, Hou WC, Ossola R, Paul ND, Ukpebor JE, Andersen MPS, Longstreth J, Schikowski T, Solomon KR, Sulzberger B, Bruckman LS, Pandey KK, White CC, Zhu L, Zhu M, Aucamp PJ, Liley JB, McKenzie RL, Berwick M, Byrne SN, Hollestein LM, Lucas RM, Olsen CM, Rhodes LE, Yazar S, Young AR. Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2022; 21:275-301. [PMID: 35191005 PMCID: PMC8860140 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-022-00176-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2021] [Accepted: 01/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/07/2022]
Abstract
The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1-67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University New Orleans, New Orleans, USA
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology (OEB), Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - P J Neale
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, USA
| | | | - R G Zepp
- ORD/CEMM, US Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA
| | - S Madronich
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - S R Wilson
- School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - A L Andrady
- Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, Apex, USA
| | - A M Heikkilä
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - A F Bais
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Physics, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - R E Neale
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia.
| | | | - A R Klekociuk
- Antarctic Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
| | - J Martinez-Abaigar
- Faculty of Science and Technology, University of La Rioja, La Rioja, Logroño, Spain
| | - S A Robinson
- Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Global Challenges Program and School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - Q-W Wang
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang, China
| | - A T Banaszak
- Unidad Académica De Sistemas Arrecifales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma De México, Puerto Morelos, Mexico
| | - D-P Häder
- Department of Biology, Friedrich-Alexander University, Möhrendorf, Germany
| | - S Hylander
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems-EEMiS, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden.
| | - K C Rose
- Biological Sciences, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, USA
| | - S-Å Wängberg
- Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - B Foereid
- Environment and Natural Resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
| | - W-C Hou
- Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - R Ossola
- Environmental System Science (D-USYS), ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - J E Ukpebor
- Chemistry Department, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
| | - M P S Andersen
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, California State University, Northridge, USA
- Department of Chemistry, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - J Longstreth
- The Institute for Global Risk Research, LLC, Bethesda, USA
| | - T Schikowski
- Research Group of Environmental Epidemiology, Leibniz Institute of Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - K R Solomon
- Centre for Toxicology, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - B Sulzberger
- Academic Guest, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, 8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | - L S Bruckman
- Materials Science and Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, USA
| | - K K Pandey
- Wood Processing Division, Institute of Wood Science and Technology, Bangalore, India
| | - C C White
- Polymer Science and Materials Chemistry (PSMC), Exponent, Bethesda, USA
| | - L Zhu
- College of Materials Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai, China
| | - M Zhu
- State Key Laboratory for Modification of Chemical Fibers and Polymer Materials, Donghua University, Shanghai, China
| | - P J Aucamp
- Ptersa Environmental Consultants, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - J B Liley
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Alexandra, New Zealand
| | - R L McKenzie
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Alexandra, New Zealand
| | - M Berwick
- Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, USA
| | - S N Byrne
- Applied Medical Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - L M Hollestein
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - R M Lucas
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - C M Olsen
- Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - L E Rhodes
- Photobiology Unit, Dermatology Research Centre, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - S Yazar
- Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia
| | - A R Young
- St John's Institute of Dermatology, King's College London (KCL), London, UK
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49
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Ganti K, Ferreri LM, Lee CY, Bair CR, Delima GK, Holmes KE, Suthar MS, Lowen AC. Timing of exposure is critical in a highly sensitive model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. PLoS Pathog 2022; 18:e1010181. [PMID: 35333914 PMCID: PMC8986102 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1010181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Revised: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Transmission efficiency is a critical factor determining the size of an outbreak of infectious disease. Indeed, the propensity of SARS-CoV-2 to transmit among humans precipitated and continues to sustain the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the number of new cases among contacts is highly variable and underlying reasons for wide-ranging transmission outcomes remain unclear. Here, we evaluated viral spread in golden Syrian hamsters to define the impact of temporal and environmental conditions on the efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 transmission through the air. Our data show that exposure periods as brief as one hour are sufficient to support robust transmission. However, the timing after infection is critical for transmission success, with the highest frequency of transmission to contacts occurring at times of peak viral load in the donor animals. Relative humidity and temperature had no detectable impact on transmission when exposures were carried out with optimal timing and high inoculation dose. However, contrary to expectation, trends observed with sub-optimal exposure timing and lower inoculation dose suggest improved transmission at high relative humidity or high temperature. In sum, among the conditions tested, our data reveal the timing of exposure to be the strongest determinant of SARS-CoV-2 transmission success and implicate viral load as an important driver of transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ketaki Ganti
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Lucas M. Ferreri
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Chung-Young Lee
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Camden R. Bair
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Gabrielle K. Delima
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Kate E. Holmes
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Mehul S. Suthar
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Emory Vaccine Center, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for Childhood Infections and Vaccines of Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta, Department of Pediatrics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Emory-UGA Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance [CEIRS], Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Anice C. Lowen
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Emory-UGA Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance [CEIRS], Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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50
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Zhang C, Nielsen PV, Liu L, Sigmer ET, Mikkelsen SG, Jensen RL. The source control effect of personal protection equipment and physical barrier on short-range airborne transmission. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 211:108751. [PMID: 35002048 PMCID: PMC8721933 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.108751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2021] [Revised: 12/09/2021] [Accepted: 01/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
In order to control the spread of Covid-19, authorities provide various prevention guidelines and recommendations for health workers and the public. Personal protection equipment (PPE) and physical barrier are the most widely applied prevention measures in practice due to their affordability and ease of implementation. This study aims to investigate the effect of PPE and physical barriers on mitigating the short-range airborne transmission between two people in a ventilated environment. Four types of PPE (surgical mask, two types of face shield, and mouth visor), and two different sizes of the physical barrier were tested in a controlled environment with two life-size breathing thermal manikins. The PPE was worn by the source manikin to test the efficiency of source control. The measurement results revealed that the principles of PPE on preventing short-range droplet and airborne transmission are different. Instead of filtering the fine droplet nuclei, they mainly redirect the virus-laden exhalation jet and avoid the exhaled flow entering the target's inhalation region. Physical barriers can block the spreading of droplet nuclei and create a good micro environment at short distances between persons. However, special attention should be paid to arranging the physical barrier and operating the ventilation system to avoid the stagnant zone where the contaminant accumulates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Zhang
- Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, Aalborg, 9220, Denmark
| | - Peter V Nielsen
- Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, Aalborg, 9220, Denmark
| | - Li Liu
- Department of Building Science, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | | | | | - Rasmus L Jensen
- Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, Aalborg, 9220, Denmark
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