Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

The Impact of Selected Regimens of Chronic HIV-Antiretroviral Treatment on Glycemic Control Markers and Correlates: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol

Background and Aim

Diabetes mellitus is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among non-communicable diseases worldwide. The etiology of diabetes can be mainly attributed to factors such as genetic susceptibility, unhealthy diets, and chronic medications. Chronic medications such as HIV-antiretrovirals (ARVs) have been previously associated with the risks of developing metabolic complications. Hence, this protocol outlines the process for conducting a systematic review to investigate the association between chronic ARV treatment and the onset of metabolic syndrome complications.

Methodology and Analysis

The studies included in the systematic review are selected according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These studies are searched using search engines or databases such as PUBMED, GOOGLE SCHOLAR, MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, and EMBASE DATABASE. The articles that remained after full article screening will be assessed for bias using the Downs and Black checklist, and the data will be extracted. Additionally, heterogeneity tests will be conducted using both Χ2 and I 2 tests, meta-analysis will be conducted using the Review Manager version 5.4 software (RevMan), and data will be presented in forest plots. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach (GRADE) will be used to assess the strength of evidence in eligible reports.

Dissemination and Registration

The findings intend to give an insight into the ARVs as a risk factor for metabolic diseases and further elaborate on the regimen that possesses a high risk between the first and second regimens. This protocol has been registered on PROSPERO Database #CRD42024521322.

Toward optimal disease surveillance with graph-based active learning

Tracking the spread of emerging pathogens is critical to the design of timely and effective public health responses. Policymakers face the challenge of allocating finite resources for testing and surveillance across locations, with the goal of maximizing the information obtained about the underlying trends in prevalence and incidence. We model this decision-making process as an iterative node classification problem on an undirected and unweighted graph, in which nodes represent locations and edges represent movement of infectious agents among them. To begin, a single node is randomly selected for testing and determined to be either infected or uninfected. Test feedback is then used to update estimates of the probability of unobserved nodes being infected and to inform the selection of nodes for testing at the next iterations, until certain test budget is exhausted. Using this framework, we evaluate and compare the performance of previously developed active learning policies for node selection, including Node Entropy and Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement. We explore the performance of these policies under different outbreak scenarios using simulated outbreaks on both synthetic and empirical networks. Further, we propose a policy that considers the distance-weighted average entropy of infection predictions among neighbors of each candidate node. Our proposed policy outperforms existing ones in most outbreak scenarios given small test budgets, highlighting the need to consider an exploration-exploitation trade-off in policy design. Our findings could inform the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies for emerging and endemic pathogens and reduce uncertainties associated with early risk assessments in resource-constrained situations.

Machine learning approach and geospatial analysis to determine HIV infection, awareness status, and transmission knowledge among adults in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV/AIDS remains a major public health challenge, in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2020, 16% of people living with HIV did not know their HIV status in SSA. Understanding the geospatial distribution of HIV infection, awareness status, and transmission knowledge is crucial for designing effective prevention and control strategies to end the HIV/AIDS pandemic by 2030. However, to the best of our literature searching the evidence of geospatial analysis and a machine learning algorithm, specifically a decision tree to decide on a Sustainability Development Goal (SDG), and to establish a clear pathway of HIV awareness status and HIV infection rates in each region of SSA is limited. Therefore, this study aims to determine HIV Infection, awareness status, and transmission knowledge among Adults in SSA using a machine learning approach and geospatial analysis.

METHODS

The study used demographic and health survey data from 2009 to 2019. Machine learning algorithms and geospatial analysis techniques were employed to determine HIV infection, awareness of HIV status, and HIV transmission knowledge.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HIV infection among adults in SSA from 2009 to 2019 is 4.96%. The machine learning algorithm (decision tree) indicates that infected individuals are unaware of their HIV infection, about half of them do not have HIV transmission knowledge, and more of them were found in Southern SSA. The spatial hotspots show that high HIV prevalence, low levels of HIV status awareness, and adequate transmission knowledge are specifically located in the Southern and some Eastern SSA.

CONCLUSION

The machine learning algorithm (decision tree) revealed that the risk of HIV infection is high among individuals who are unaware of their HIV status and lack knowledge about HIV transmission in Southern and eastern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial analysis revealed the high-risk areas of HIV infection with low HIV status awareness and HIV transmission knowledge were located in Southern and some Eastern SSA countries. Therefore public health strategies should focus on educating individuals about the importance of knowing their HIV status, transmission knowledge, and ensuring accessible testing options in these affected regions to address the observed spatial disparities in HIV infection, HIV status awareness, and HIV transmission knowledge to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal of ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa.

Regional Adiposity and Insulin Sensitivity-Interactions With Menopause and HIV in Middle-Aged Black African Women

OBJECTIVE

To explore depot-specific functional aspects of adipose tissue, examining the putative role for menopause and HIV status on insulin sensitivity (SI) and beta-cell function in Black South African women.

METHODS

Women (n = 92) from the Middle-Aged Soweto Cohort, including premenopausal HIV-negative women (n = 21); premenopausal women living with HIV (LWH; n = 11); postmenopausal HIV-negative women (n = 42); and postmenopausal women LWH (n = 18) underwent the following tests: body composition (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry); fasting bloods for sex hormones, inflammation, and adipokines; frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test for SI and beta-cell function (disposition index, DI); abdominal (aSAT) and gluteal subcutaneous adipose tissue (gSAT) biopsies for cell size, and mRNA expression of adipokines, inflammation, and estrogen receptors (ER).

RESULTS

Depot-specific associations between gene expression and insulin parameters did not differ by HIV or menopause status. Pooled analysis showed significant models for SI (P = .002) and DI (P = .003). Higher SI was associated with lower leptin and CD11c expression in aSAT and higher adiponectin in gSAT. Higher DI was associated with higher aSAT and gSAT expression of adiponectin, lipoprotein lipase, ERα, and PPARγ, and lower leptin in aSAT. Women LWH had higher expression of adiponectin and lower expression of leptin in both aSAT (P = .002 and P = .005) and gSAT (P = .004 and P = .002), respectively, and a larger proportion of smaller cells in aSAT (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function were distinctively associated with aSAT and gSAT. While menopause did not influence these relationships, HIV had a significant effect on adipose tissue, characterized by variations in cell size distribution and transcript levels within the depots.

Evidence of Zika virus circulation in human and livestock in Chad

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a major public health problem worldwide. After several reported outbreaks, the current extent of infections caused by this orthoflavivirus in the Sahel remains to be explored. We investigated the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies against ZIKV in the general population, in HIV-infected individuals and in livestock in Chad using a seroneutralization assay that ensures high specificity level. In this retrospective serological serosurveillance investigation, we estimated the neutralizing seroprevalence to be approximately 26 % (18/69) in healthy Chadian participants and 17 % (16/94) in HIV-infected individuals, with no statistical difference between these two subgroups or genders. In addition, we found an overall ZIKV prevalence of 14 % (8/59) in small ruminants (sheep and goats) living in the Lake Chad Basin area, demonstrating virus circulation in animals. Our pilot study shows for the first-time evidence of ZIKV circulation in humans and in livestock in Chad in close interaction with humans, and highlights the main challenges associated with this virus in Sahelian areas.

Prevalence, Predictors, and Outcomes of HIV Care in HIV-Positive Clients Entering HIV Care With Advanced HIV Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa 2010-2022: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background and Aims

Sub-Saharan Africa drives global HIV-related mortality, and patients continuously present with advanced HIV disease (AHD) at diagnosis. We describe prevalence, predictors, and treatment outcomes in HIV clients with AHD.

Methods

We systematically reviewed PUBMED, SCOPUS, Web of Science, JSTOR, and CINAHL for relevant studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2022. We used a narrative synthesis to describe included studies and a random effect meta-analysis to determine AHD pooled prevalence. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist guided the reporting, while the Joanna Briggs Institute's quality assessment checklist assessed the quality of included articles. Cochrane's Q and the I 2 tests assessed heterogeneity between included studies.

Results

We included 24 studies with a sample size of 322,676. Prevalence of AHD ranged from 11.0% to 89.7% with an overall pooled prevalence of 58.7% (95% CI: 51.3%, 66.0%): 66.1% (95% CI: 58.8%, 73.4%) between 2010 and 2016, and 51.2% (95% CI: 37.7%, 64.6%) from 2017 to 2022. Predictors of AHD include male sex, older age (≥ 35), widowed or divorced, unemployment, gap in care of ≥ 12 months before antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, no history of HIV testing, and seeking care from a traditional healer before presenting for HIV care. Loss to follow-up ranged from 6.7%-58.3%, while the proportion of death ranged from 1.8%-13.1%. Predictors of death were being male, advanced age (≥ 50 years), advanced clinical stages, late ART initiation, higher mean log viral load, CD4+ cell count < 50 cells/mm3 and severe anaemia.

Conclusions

The high baseline prevalence of AHD suggests the need for targeted, people-centred HIV testing in Sub-Saharan Africa. Country HIV programs should accelerate the implementation of comprehensive HIV services that identify clients at risk of AHD for early enrolment with systems for monitoring the WHO care package for preventing, diagnosing, and treating AHD and associated comorbid conditions. PROSPERO number: 2022 CRD42022336487.

Meta-analysis of Pregnancy Events in Biomedical HIV Prevention Trials in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Gender Transformative Trials

Historically, pregnant and lactating populations (PLP) have been excluded or disenrolled from biomedical HIV prevention trials, despite being more likely to acquire HIV during pregnancy and the post-partum period. We conducted a meta-analysis of pregnancy events in biomedical HIV prevention trials in sub-Saharan Africa to support trialists moving toward more inclusive clinical and implementation studies. We searched peer-reviewed literature reporting pregnancy events and contraceptive requirements in HIV prevention trials between 2001 and 2022. We hypothesized four variables to explain variation: contraceptive requirements, study start year, study product, and sub-region. We fit a meta-analytic model to estimate individual effect sizes and sampling variances, then conducted sub-group analyses to assess moderating effects. We identified 38 references for inclusion, across which the proportion of pregnancy events was 8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6-10%) with high heterogeneity (I2 = 99%). Studies not requiring contraceptives (21%, 95%CI: 7-48%) reported a significantly higher proportion of pregnancy events than studies requiring two methods (5%, 95%CI: 2-10%). Studies launched between 2001 and 2007 (11%, 95%CI: 8-16%), microbicide gel trials (12%, 95%CI: 8-18%), and studies conducted in Western Africa (28%, 95%CI: 13-51%) reported higher proportions of pregnancy events than reference groups. Together, these variables have a moderating effect on pregnancy events (p < 0.0001), explaining 63% of heterogeneity in trials. Results describe how, over time, more stringent contraceptive requirements reduced pregnancy events, which ensured necessary statistical power but limited reproductive choice by participants. With the move toward continuing PLP on experimental products, trialists can utilize estimated pregnancy events reported here to inform strategies that accommodate participants' changing fertility preferences.

Prevalence, incidence, and residual risk for human immunodeficiency virus among blood donors from 2003 to 2022 in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

China's significant population affected by HIV poses a substantial threat to blood transfusion safety. Despite advancements in blood testing techniques, a residual risk of HIV transmission persists. Accurately assessing HIV epidemic and the residual risk is vital for monitoring blood supply safety and evaluating the effectiveness of new screening tests.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of HIV detection results among voluntary blood donors from 2003 to 2022. The study included data on HIV-confirmed positive donors, HIV prevalence, infection risk factors, and an incidence-window period mathematical model to estimate the residual risk of HIV.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2022, HIV prevalence among blood donors in Guangzhou showed a peak-shaped trend, initially increasing before declining. The overall HIV prevalence was 18.9 infections per 100,000 donations. Male donors had a significantly higher prevalence compared with female donors. Donors aged 26-35 years had the highest prevalence. Ethnic minority donors had a higher prevalence compared with Han donors. Repeat donors had a lower prevalence compared with first-time donors. Donors from other provinces had a higher prevalence compared with local donors. During the period of 2003 to 2022, the residual risk of HIV in Guangzhou steadily decreased, reaching a notable 1 in 526,316 donations in the past two years.

CONCLUSION

The HIV epidemic among blood donors in Guangzhou remains severe, but the residual risk of HIV is decreasing. Novel detection methods have proven advantageous in reducing this residual risk. Implementing additional effective measures is imperative to ensure blood safety and curb the spread of HIV.

High-risk human papillomavirus diversity among indigenous women of western Botswana with normal cervical cytology and dysplasia

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer remains a public health problem despite heavy global investment in health systems especially in low-and-middle-income countries (LMIC). Prophylactic vaccines against the most commonly detected human papillomavirus (HPV) types in cervical cancers are available and decisions on the selection of vaccine design depends on the prevalence of high-risk (hr) HPV genotypes for a particular region. In 2015, Botswana adopted the use of a quadrivalent HPV vaccine as a primary prevention strategy. Secondary prevention includes cervical smear screening whose uptake remains notably low among indigenous and marginalized communities despite efforts to improve access.

AIM

To determine the prevalence of hrHPV genotypes and cervical lesions' burden in women from the indigenous and marginalized communities of Botswana.

METHODS

This prospective survey enrolled 171 non-HPV vaccinated women aged 21 years and older. Face-to-face interviews, Pap smear screening, hr-HPV and Human Immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) testing were carried out. Conventional Papanicolau smears were analyzed and cervical brushes were preserved for hrHPV testing using the Ampfire Multiplex HR-HPV protocol which detects the following genotypes: HPV 16, 18, 31, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 53, 56, 58, 59 and 68.

RESULTS

In this study, 168/171 (98.6%) of the women consented to HIV testing; 53/171 (31%) were living with HIV and self-reported enrolment on antiretroviral therapy. Among the women examined, 23/171 (13.5%) had cervical dysplasia with most presenting with Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance 8/23 (35%), Low-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions 8/23 (35%), Atypical Squamous Cells-High Grade 4/23 (17%), Atypical Endocervical Cells 2/23 (9%) and Atypical Endocervical Cell favoring neoplasia 1/23(4%). However, no High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions (HSIL) or squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were detected. Overall hrHPV prevalence in this study was at 56/171 (32.7%). The most commonly detected hrHPV genotypes in women with cervical dysplasia were HPV39 (6.25%), HPV51 (14.5%), HPV52 (12.5%) and HPV56 (4%). Notably, HPV 16 and 18 were not found in women with cervical dysplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides valuable insights into the prevalence and distribution of hrHPV genotypes in indigenous and marginalized communities in Botswana, and the need for further investigation of their potential role in cervical carcinogenesis in this population. These results may also serve as baseline data to facilitate future evaluation of the HPV vaccine needs.

Mental health problems in pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

BACKGROUND

Existing evidence on the burden of mental health problems among pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV, a vulnerable population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), is limited and fragmented, affecting the development of context-sensitive and integrated interventions. This systematic review aims to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive synthesis of available evidence to estimate the burden and identify the determinants of mental health problems among pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV across countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We will retrieve all relevant studies (published and unpublished) through searches in PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, LILACS, Google Scholar, Scopus and Web of Science from inception to 30th June 2024, without language restriction. We will use the following search terms 'mental health disorder', 'mental health problem', 'pregnant women', 'postpartum women' and 'HIV' nested with all applicable alternate terms and the names of countries in SSA for running the searches. We will also search HINARI, African Index Medicus, African Journals Online, Academic Search Premier, medRxiv, ProQuest, EBSCO Open Dissertations, and reference lists of relevant studies. We will contact experts in the field for potentially relevant unpublished studies. All retrieved articles from the electronic databases and grey literature will be collated and deduplicated using Endnote and exported to Rayyan QCRI. Two reviewers will independently select studies using a pretested study selection flow chart developed from the pre-specified eligibility criteria. Two reviewers will extract data using a pretested data extraction form and assess the risk of bias in the included studies using the risk of bias tool for prevalence studies by Hoy et al. (2012). Any disagreements will be resolved through discussion between the reviewers. Binary outcomes (prevalence and incidence of mental health problems among pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV) will be evaluated using pooled proportions (for non-comparative studies) and odds ratio (OR) or risk ratio (RR) (for comparative studies), and mean difference for continuous outcomes, all will be reported with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity will be assessed graphically for overlapping CIs and statistically using the I2 statistic. If substantial heterogeneity is found, random-effects model meta-analysis will be performed; otherwise, fixed-effect meta-analysis will be employed. We will conduct subgroup analysis (to assess the impact of heterogeneity) and sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the generated effect estimates to the quality domains. The overall level of evidence will be assessed using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations).

EXPECTED OUTCOMES

The review is expected to produce an up-to-date and comprehensive synthesis of the available evidence, allowing for the generation of country-specific estimates of the burden of mental health problems among mothers living with HIV across SSA populations. Also, the review will attempt to identify the determinants of mental health problems among pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV, to shed light on the factors that contribute to the occurrence of mental health problems in this vulnerable population.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The systematic review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), with registration ID CRD42023468537.

Prevalence and neighbourhood determinants of early sexual debut and multiple sexual partnerships among young people in Rwanda, Ghana and South Africa

BACKGROUND

The consequences of engaging in risky sexual behaviours (RSB) can lead to HIV infection, sexually transmitted diseases and unintended pregnancy. The relationship between neighbourhood characteristics and youth involvement in RSB such as early sexual debut and multiple sexual partnerships has been of great concern to government, researchers and policymakers. However, there are very few empirical studies using demographic and health surveys to unpack the nature of this relationship in Rwanda, Ghana and South Africa. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and determinants of early sexual debut and condom use, and to explore the neighbourhood factors associated with early sexual debut and condom use in Rwanda, Ghana and South Africa.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study using the most recent Demographic and Health Survey Data (DHS 2014-2016) from Ghana, Rwanda and South Africa to investigate the relationship between neighbourhood characteristics and risky sexual behaviour among the youth.

RESULTS

The prevalence of risky sexual behaviour in the three countries ranges from 56% (South Africa), 30% (Ghana) and 12% (Rwanda). Male youth in the 20-to-24-year-old category had increased odds of engaging in multiple sexual partnerships for the three countries (AOR 4.58; 95% CI 3.40-6.16), Rwanda (AOR 2.72; 95% CI 2.04-3.68) and South Africa (AOR 4.56; 95% CI 3.33-6.24). Meanwhile, at the community level, community education significantly increased the odds of age sexual debut among female adolescents by 50% (South Africa), and 46% (Ghana), while in Rwanda, this factor had decreased odds with higher community education.

CONCLUSION

To lower the incidence of risky sexual behaviour in the community, programmes aimed at appropriate policy options must be intensified. The implications of these findings is helpful for a developmental approach aimed at reaching Africa's long-term development goal of eliminating STIs among young people.

PfSPZ Vaccine induces focused humoral immune response in HIV positive and negative Tanzanian adults

BACKGROUND

PfSPZ Vaccine, a promising pre-erythrocytic stage malaria vaccine candidate based on whole, radiation-attenuated Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (SPZ), has proven safe and effective in mediating sterile protection from malaria in malaria-naïve and exposed healthy adults. Vaccine-induced protection presumably depends on cellular responses to early parasite liver stages, but humoral immunity contributes.

METHODS

On custom-made Pf protein microarrays, we profiled IgG and IgM responses to PfSPZ Vaccine and subsequent homologous controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) in 21 Tanzanian adults with (n = 12) or without (n = 9) HIV infection. Expression of the main identified immunogens in the pre-erythrocytic parasite stage was verified by immunofluorescence detection using freshly purified PfSPZ and an in vitro model of primary human hepatocytes.

FINDINGS

Independent of HIV infection status, immunisation induced focused IgG and IgM responses to circumsporozoite surface protein (PfCSP) and merozoite surface protein 5 (PfMSP5). We show that PfMSP5 is detectable on the surface and in the apical complex of PfSPZ.

INTERPRETATION

Our data demonstrate that HIV infection does not affect the quantity of the total IgG and IgM antibody responses to PfCSP and PfMSP5 after immunization with PfSPZ Vaccine. PfMSP5 represents a highly immunogenic, so far underexplored, target for vaccine-induced antibodies in malaria pre-exposed volunteers.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the Equatorial Guinea Malaria Vaccine Initiative (EGMVI), the Clinical Trial Platform of the German Center for Infection Research (TTU 03.702), the Swiss Government Excellence Scholarships for Foreign Scholars and Artists (grant 2016.0056) and the Interdisciplinary Center for Clinical Research doctoral program of the Tübingen University Hospital. The funders had no role in design, analysis, or reporting of this study.

Mapping the Pharmacogenetic Landscape in a Ugandan Population: Implications for Personalized Medicine in an Underrepresented Population

Africans are extremely underrepresented in global genomic research. African populations face high burdens of communicable and non-communicable diseases and experience widespread polypharmacy. As population-specific genetic studies are crucial to understanding unique genetic profiles and optimizing treatments to reduce medication-related complications in this diverse population, the present study aims to characterize the pharmacogenomics profile of a rural Ugandan population. We analyzed low-pass whole genome sequencing data from 1998 Ugandans to investigate 18 clinically actionable pharmacogenes in this population. We utilized PyPGx to identify star alleles (haplotype patterns) and compared allele frequencies across populations using the Pharmacogenomics Knowledgebase PharmGKB. Clinical interpretations of the identified alleles were conducted following established dosing guidelines. Over 99% of participants displayed actionable phenotypes across the 18 pharmacogenes, averaging 3.5 actionable genotypes per individual. Several variant alleles known to affect drug metabolism (i.e., CYP3A5*1, CYP2B6*9, CYP3A5*6, CYP2D6*17, CYP2D6*29, and TMPT*3C)-which are generally more prevalent in African individuals-were notably enriched in the Ugandan cohort, beyond reported frequencies in other African peoples. More than half of the cohort exhibited a predicted impaired drug response associated with CFTR, IFNL3, CYP2B6, and CYP2C19, and approximately 31% predicted altered CYP2D6 metabolism. Potentially impaired CYP2C9, SLCO1B1, TPMT, and DPYD metabolic phenotypes were also enriched in Ugandans compared with other African populations. Ugandans exhibit distinct allele profiles that could impact drug efficacy and safety. Our findings have important implications for pharmacogenomics in Uganda, particularly with respect to the treatment of prevalent communicable and non-communicable diseases, and they emphasize the potential of pharmacogenomics-guided therapies to optimize healthcare outcomes and precision medicine in Uganda.

Mobile Phones and HIV Testing: Multicountry Instrumental Variable Analysis From Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa has been a technological hothouse when it comes to mobile phone technology adoption. However, evidence on the role played by mobile technology on infectious disease prevention has been mostly limited to experimental studies.

OBJECTIVE

This observational study investigates the role of mobile phone connectivity on HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We make use of the novel and comprehensive OpenCelliD cell tower database and Demographic and Health Survey geocoded information for over 400,000 women in 29 sub-Saharan African countries. We examine, through ordinary least square and instrumental variable regressions, whether women's community distance from the closest cell tower influences knowledge about HIV testing facilities and the likelihood of ever being tested for HIV.

RESULTS

After finding a negative and significant impact of distance to the nearest cell tower on knowledge of HIV testing facility (-0.7 percentage points per unit increase in distance) and HIV testing (-0.5 percentage points per unit increase), we investigate the mechanisms through which such effects might occur. Our analysis shows that distance to a cell tower reduces HIV-related knowledge (-0.4 percentage points per unit increase) as well as reproductive health knowledge (-0.4 percentage points per unit increase). Similar results are observed when the analysis is performed at community level.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the effect of mobile phone connectivity is channeled through increased knowledge of HIV, sexually transmittable infections, and modern contraceptive methods. Further analysis shows that cell phone ownership has an even larger impact on HIV testing and knowledge. This paper adds to the recent literature on the impact of mobile-based HIV prevention schemes by showing through large-scale analysis that better mobile network access is a powerful tool to spread reproductive health knowledge and increase HIV awareness.

Mapping fertility rates at national, sub-national, and local levels in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019

Background

Fertility rates are key indicators of population health and demographic change, influencing economic development, healthcare planning, and social policies. Understanding subnational variation in fertility rate is important for effective geographical targeting and policy prioritization. This study aimed to identify geographic variation, trends, and determinants of fertility rates in Ethiopia over the past two decades.

Methods

We estimated total fertility rates (TFRs) and age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) using five nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys collected in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019. ASFRs represent the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49 during the 3 years before each survey, while TFRs indicate the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her reproductive years, calculated as the sum of ASFRs over five-year intervals. We developed model-based geostatistics by incorporating demographic and healthcare access data with spatial random fields to produce high-resolution fertility rate maps. These results were then aggregated to produce fertility rate estimates at local, sub-national, and national levels in Ethiopia.

Results

The national TFR gradually declined from 4.8 live births in 2000 to 4.2 live births in 2019, but it is still above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. There were sub-national and local variations in TFR, ranging from 5.7 live births in Somalia and 5.3 Oromia regions to 2.7 live births in Addis Ababa and 3.6 live births Dire Dawa cities. Geographical areas with high TFR were mostly associated with a high proportion of Muslim women and low access to health facilities.

Conclusion

Despite a decline in fertility rates among women of reproductive age over the past two decades, marked spatial variation persists at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia, with demographic factors determining the spatial distribution and rate of decline, highlighting the need for tailored programs and strategies in high-fertility areas to increase access to family planning.

Disease burden of AIDS in last 30-year period and its predicted level in next 25-years based on the global burden disease 2019

BACKGROUND

This study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years.

METHODS

Comprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender.

CONCLUSIONS

The global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and < 15 years old. This underscores the urgent need for increased resources to combat AIDS in this region, with focused attention on protecting women and < 15 years old as priority groups. The AIDS epidemic remained severe in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections for the next 25 years indicate a substantial and ongoing decline in both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates.

Awareness and willingness to use pre-exposure prophylaxis among the University of Zambia students: A cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Despite a quick rollout of PrEP as a preventive method against Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infections in Zambia, adolescent and young adult populations have remained very vulnerable to HIV infection. This study assessed the awareness and willingness to use PrEP among University of Zambia (UNZA) students.

Methods

Three hundred forty-six students participated in this cross-sectional study at UNZA between March and June 2021. A previously validated questionnaire assessed willingness to use PrEP. We tested the hypothesized pathways between sexual risk behavior and willingness to use PrEP using the structural equation model. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to determine factors associated with willingness to use PrEP. Variables with a p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

Of the 346 students, 271 (78.3%) were aware of PrEP, and 59 (17.1%) of the participants were willing to use PrEP. Only 17 (4.9%) of the participants had used PrEP before. In the multivariable logistic regression model, students who were aware of PrEP compared to those who were not (AOR = 3.03, 95% CI: 1.10, 8.40, p) were more likely to be willing to use PrEP. Sexual risk behavior indirectly and positively affected willingness to use PrEP through awareness of PrEP.

Conclusion

Even though most students were aware of PrEP, the willingness to use this preventative measure is still low among UNZA students, resulting in low uptake. Therefore, concerted efforts are required to influence the willingness and uptake of PrEP, especially in high-risk age groups such as university students.

NAD deficiency contributes to progressive kidney disease in HIV-nephropathy mice

HIV disease remains prevalent in the United States and is particularly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent investigations revealed that mitochondrial dysfunction in kidney contributes to HIV-associated nephropathy (HIVAN) in Tg26 transgenic mice. We hypothesized that nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) deficiency contributes to energetic dysfunction and progressive tubular injury. We investigated metabolomic mechanisms of HIVAN tubulopathy. Tg26 and wild-type (WT) mice were treated with the farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonist INT-747 or nicotinamide riboside (NR) from 6 to 12 wk of age. Multiomic approaches were used to characterize kidney tissue transcriptomes and metabolomes. Treatment with INT-747 or NR ameliorated kidney tubular injury, as shown by serum creatinine, the tubular injury marker urinary neutrophil-associated lipocalin, and tubular morphometry. Integrated analysis of metabolomic and transcriptomic measurements showed that NAD levels and production were globally downregulated in Tg26 mouse kidneys, especially nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT), the rate-limiting enzyme in the NAD salvage pathway. Furthermore, NAD-dependent deacetylase sirtuin3 activity and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation activity were lower in ex vivo proximal tubules from Tg26 mouse kidneys compared with those of WT mice. Restoration of NAD levels in the kidney improved these abnormalities. These data suggest that NAD deficiency might be a treatable target for HIVAN.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The study describes a novel investigation that identified nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) deficiency in a widely used HIV-associated nephropathy (HIVAN) transgenic mouse model. We show that INT-747, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, and nicotinamide riboside (NR), a precursor of nicotinamide, each ameliorated HIVAN tubulopathy. Multiomic analysis of mouse kidneys revealed that NAD deficiency was an upstream metabolomic mechanism contributing to HIVAN tubulopathy.

PKR activation-induced mitochondrial dysfunction in HIV-transgenic mice with nephropathy

HIV disease remains prevalent in the USA and chronic kidney disease remains a major cause of morbidity in HIV-1-positive patients. Host double-stranded RNA (dsRNA)-activated protein kinase (PKR) is a sensor for viral dsRNA, including HIV-1. We show that PKR inhibition by compound C16 ameliorates the HIV-associated nephropathy (HIVAN) kidney phenotype in the Tg26 transgenic mouse model, with reversal of mitochondrial dysfunction. Combined analysis of single-nucleus RNA-seq and bulk RNA-seq data revealed that oxidative phosphorylation was one of the most downregulated pathways and identified signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT3) as a potential mediating factor. We identified in Tg26 mice a novel proximal tubular cell cluster enriched in mitochondrial transcripts. Podocytes showed high levels of HIV-1 gene expression and dysregulation of cytoskeleton-related genes, and these cells dedifferentiated. In injured proximal tubules, cell-cell interaction analysis indicated activation of the pro-fibrogenic PKR-STAT3-platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-D pathway. These findings suggest that PKR inhibition and mitochondrial rescue are potential novel therapeutic approaches for HIVAN.

Challenges in managing HIV and non-communicable diseases and health workers' perception regarding integrated management of non-communicable diseases during routine HIV care in South Central Uganda: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases are highly prevalent among adults living with HIV, emphasizing the need for comprehensive healthcare strategies. However, a dearth of knowledge exists regarding the health systems challenges in managing HIV and non-communicable diseases and the perception of health workers regarding the integrated management of non-communicable diseases during routine HIV care in rural Ugandan settings. This study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by exploring the health system challenges in managing HIV and non-communicable diseases and health workers' perception regarding the integration of non-communicable diseases in routine HIV care in South Central Uganda.

METHODS

In this qualitative study, we collected data from 20 purposively selected key informants from Kalisizo Hospital and Rakai Hospital in South Central Uganda. Data were collected from 15th December 2020 and 14th January 2021. Data were analyzed using a thematic content approach with the help of NVivo 11.

RESULTS

Of the 20 health workers, 13 were females. In terms of work duration, 9 had worked with people living with HIV for 11-15 years and 9 were nurses. The challenges in managing HIV and non-communicable diseases included difficulty managing adverse events, heavy workload, inadequate communication from specialists to lower cadre health workers, limited financial and human resources, unsupportive clinical guidelines that do not incorporate non-communicable disease management in HIV care and treatment, and inadequate knowledge and skills required to manage non-communicable diseases appropriately. Health workers suggested integrating non-communicable disease management into routine HIV care and suggested the need for training before this integration.

CONCLUSION

The integration of non-communicable disease management into routine HIV care presents a promising avenue for easing the burden on health workers handling these conditions. However, achieving successful integration requires not only the training of health workers but also ensuring the availability of sufficient human and financial resources.

Older persons' knowledge of HIV and AIDS prevention in a province of South Africa

BACKGROUND

 Population ageing and access to antiretroviral therapy have resulted in an increase in the proportion of older people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, scant knowledge is available to inform the design of educational programmes to target these persons in low- and middle-income countries.

AIM

 This study aimed to examine how persons aged ≥ 50 years view their risk of contracting HIV, and the extent to which they are supported in preventing infection and are impacted by the HIV or acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic.

SETTING

 Rural sites in the Western Cape Province of South Africa.

METHODS

 This study followed a qualitative design. Two focus group discussions with persons aged ≥ 50 years and interviews with two key informants were conducted at seniors' centres. Discussions were digitally audio recorded and the recordings were transcribed, and data were thematically analysed.

RESULTS

 Overall, awareness of the risk of older persons contracting HIV infection in this population was poor. Stigmatisation of the disease in the community and at health care facilities affected individuals' willingness to be tested for the virus and/or to disclose their status, if positive. Participants viewed HIV and AIDS education programmes as focussed on the youth and educational sessions for large groups were not helpful in stemming the epidemic.

CONCLUSION

 Dissemination of information on older persons' vulnerability to the disease, and education on HIV and AIDS tailored for and targeted at this age group have been relatively neglected.Contribution: Educational programmes on HIV, as well as productive channels and platforms to target older populations, particularly those with a low health literacy level are required.

Application of molecular epidemiology in revealing HIV-1 transmission network and recombination patterns in Tianjin, China

Using a comprehensive molecular epidemiological approach, we characterized the transmission dynamics of HIV-1 among the MSM population in Tianjin, China. Our findings revealed that 38.56% (386/1001) of individuals clustered across 109 molecular transmission clusters (TCs), with MSM aged 50 and below being the group most commonly transmitting HIV-1. Among the identified TCs, CRF01_AE predominated, followed by CRF07_BC. Notably, CRF07_BC demonstrated a higher propensity for forming large clusters compared to CRF01_AE. Birth-death skyline analyses of the two largest clusters indicated that the HIV/AIDS transmission may be at a critical point, nearly all had Re approximately 1 by now. A retrospective analysis revealed that the rapid expansion of these large clusters was primarily driven by the introduction of viruses in 2021, highlighting the crucial importance of continuous molecular surveillance in identifying newly emerging high-risk transmission chains and adapting measures to address evolving epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, we detected the transmission of drug-resistant mutations (DRMs) within the TCs, particularly in the CRF07_BC clusters (K103N, Y181C, and K101E) and CRF01_AE clusters (P225H and K219R), emphasizing the importance of monitoring to support the continued efficacy of first-line therapies and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Recombination analyses indicated that complex recombinant patterns, associated with increased amino acid variability, could confer adaptive traits to the viruses, potentially providing a competitive advantage in certain host populations or regions. Our study highlights the potential of integrating molecular epidemiological and phylodynamic approaches to inform targeted interventions.

Why did I participate in an HIV vaccine study? Experiences of participation in the first phase II HIV vaccine trial in Mozambique: An ancillary study using a mixed-method approach

Introduction

This study recognized the lack of information regarding recruitment and retention factors associated with implementing HIV vaccine trials from the perspective of de facto participants. It aimed to describe the motives and experiences of 31 young adults who participated in a phase II HIV vaccine clinical trial conducted in Maputo, Mozambique.

Methods

This was an ancillary study with a mixed-method approach that employed a convergent design, combining both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Data collection involved questionnaire surveys, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions. Participants were assessed before and after learning whether they received the experimental vaccine or placebo. Thematic analysis was used for qualitative data, while descriptive analysis and statistical tests such as Fischer's test and McNemar's exact test were applied to quantitative data. The study also utilized the Health Belief Model to understand the decision-making process of participating in an HIV vaccine study.

Results

Most of our participants were young females, single, with limited financial resources. Participants joined the trial with the belief that they had a unique opportunity to help the fight against HIV and contribute to the research for the discovery of an HIV vaccine. Positive experiences related to trial participation include gaining knowledge about HIV and personal health and receiving risk reduction counseling. Participants reported blood collection as a negative experience and that they suffered social harm because of trial participation. Participants felt abandoned after the trial ended.

Conclusion

Preventive HIV vaccine trials should integrate a social-behavioral component to assess reasons for participation and refusal in real-time. Providing ongoing personal attention is crucial for young individuals who have committed 1-2 years to trial participation, extending beyond the trial period. Implementing tailored strategies for HIV risk assessment and reduction during and after the trial is essential. Addressing these factors can enhance preventive HIV vaccine trial implementation.

A multidisciplinary approach for people with HIV failing antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

Background

South Africa (SA) has the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme worldwide. Multiple factors contribute to virological failure (VF), including poor adherence and viral resistance mutations. A multidisciplinary team (MDT) clinic dedicated to those with VF may be of benefit; however, very little data from SA exist.

Objectives

To assess whether an MDT approach achieved virological suppression (VS) in patients failing second-line-ART (2LART); assess the number of MDT sessions required to achieve VS; assess local resistance mutation patterns and whether the MDT reduced the number of genotypic resistance testing (GRT) required.

Method

An observational, retrospective, cross-sectional chart review study was conducted between January 2018 and December 2019 at a Target High Viral Load (VL) MDT clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, SA.

Results

Ninety-seven medical records were eligible. Women accounted for 63% of patients, with a mean age of 37 years. A significant reduction in the first VL measurement following the MDT was seen (median reduction 2374 c/mL; P < 0.001). This was maintained at the second VL measurement post-MDT (median reduction 2957 c/mL; P < 0.001). Patients attended a mean of 2.71 MDT sessions and 73.2% achieved VS, resulting in 61.86% fewer GRTs required. Of the GRTs performed, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-related mutations were noted most frequently.

Conclusion

The MDT approach resulted in a significant reduction in VL, with most participants achieving VS. The MDT was successful in reducing the need for GRT. Resistance mutations were similar to those found in other studies conducted across SA.

SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity in people living with HIV-1

The effect of COVID-19 on the high number of immunocompromised people living with HIV-1 (PLWH), particularly in Africa, remains a critical concern. Here, we identify key areas that still require further investigation, by examining COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, and understanding antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in comparison with people without HIV-1 (PWOH). We also assess the potential impact of pre-existing immunity against endemic human coronaviruses on SARS-CoV-2 responses in these individuals. Lastly, we discuss the consequences of persistent infection in PLWH (or other immunocompromised individuals), including prolonged shedding, increased viral diversity within the host, and the implications on SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Africa.

Seroprevalence of human immunodeficiency virus in African blood donors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In developing countries, the safety of blood transfusions remains an important public health concern as it is associated with a higher risk of transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs). In this study, we aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of HIV among blood donors in Africa and assess the temporal trends and regional differences within the continent through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Seven electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane, Scopus, HINARI, Global Index Medicus and Clinical.

TRIAL

gov) were searched for relevant studies for our research. We included all primary studies that estimated the seroprevalence of HIV among blood donors in Africa with an age population from 16 to 65 years old, without language restrictions, from inception up to March 1st 2024. The pooled seroprevalence was estimated through the DerSimonian-Laird random effects model. The temporal trends and regional differences were assessed through subgroup and meta-regression analysis.

FINDINGS

We obtained 122 studies that met our inclusion criteria, comprising 7,814,996 blood donors tested for HIV. Sixty-six percent of the studies were from Western and Eastern Africa. The pooled seroprevalence of HIV among blood donors in Africa was 2.66% (95% CI: 2.17-3.20%; I2 = 99.80%, p < 0.01). The highest prevalence was observed in the Central African region, 3.28% (95% CI: 2.57%-4.06%), followed by the Eastern 3.21% (95% CI: 2.12%-4.52%), and the Western 2.66% (95% CI: 1.93%-3.49%) regions. Lower prevalences were observed in the Northern region, 0.57% (95% CI: 0.0%-2.10%), followed by the Southern African region with 0.45% (95% CI: 0.16%-0.86%). We observed a temporal decreased trend of HIV prevalence.

INTERPRETATION

The prevalence of HIV infection among African blood donors remains high and is not homogeneous across the continent. Efficient measures to strengthen HIV testing and prevent HIV transmission through blood transfusion are needed in Africa. Systematic review protocol registration: PROSPERO CRD42023395616.

FUNDING

This article was supported by National Funds through FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia,I.P., within CINTESIS, R&D Unit (reference UIDP/4255/2020).

Assessing COVID-19 Vulnerability Among HIV-positive Men Who Have Sex With Men in Korea: The Role of Vaccination and Sexual Behaviors

OBJECTIVES

Comorbidities increase susceptibility to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, but limited information has been published regarding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and COVID-19 co-infections. This study explored the relationships among socioeconomic characteristics, sexual behaviors, and COVID-19 infection rates among Korean men who have sex with men (MSM) who are also living with HIV.

METHODS

Data were collected through a web survey aimed at members of the largest gay portal site in Korea, supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (n=1005). The primary independent variables included COVID-19-related vaccinations and sexual behaviors. The dependent variable was the incidence of COVID-19 infection among respondents during the pandemic. For statistical analysis, hierarchical multiple logistic regression was performed, controlling for potential confounding variables.

RESULTS

Model I indicated that older MSM were less likely to contract COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96 to 0.99). Model II demonstrated that HIV-positive MSM were nearly twice as likely to be infected with COVID-19 compared to their HIV-negative counterparts (aOR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.14 to 3.41). Furthermore, even after accounting for COVID-19 vaccination status in model III, HIV-positive MSM continued to show a higher risk of infection (aOR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.12 to 3.35).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study indicate that HIV-positive MSM are at an increased risk of contracting COVID-19, even when their vaccination status is considered. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the prevention of COVID-19 infections in HIV-positive individuals by administering appropriate antiretroviral therapy and ensuring adherence to public health guidelines.

Moving beyond hotspots of HIV prevalence to geospatial hotspots of UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in sub-Saharan Africa

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa displays a varied geographical distribution, with particular regions termed as HIV hotspots due to a higher prevalence of infection. Addressing these hotspots is essential for controlling the epidemic. However, these regions, influenced by historical factors, challenge standard interventions. Legacy effects-the lasting impact of past events-play a substantial role in the persistence of these hotspots. To address this challenge of the standard interventions, we propose a shift towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. Spatial analysis of HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy coverage can provide a more comprehensive perspective on the epidemic's dynamics. Studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe, using this approach, have revealed disparities in HIV care metrics across regions. By focusing on the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, more effective control strategies can be designed, with consideration of both historical and current factors. This approach would offer a solution-oriented strategy, emphasising tailored interventions based on specific regional needs.

Prevalence of and factors associated with chronic kidney disease among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus attending care and treatment centers at tertiary hospitals in dodoma, Tanzania

Background

The burden and risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) among patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is higher than in the general population. This study aimed to determine prevalence of and associated factors with CKD among adults infected with human immunodeficiency virus at tertiary hospitals in Dodoma, Tanzania.

Method

ology: A cross-sectional study was carried out between November 2022 to April 2023. Patients' demographic data, and clinical measurements were obtained on the day of the visit. Laboratory investigations were performed as standard of care. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed, and variables associated with CKD were identified by multivariable logistic regression.

Results

A total of 223 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 47 (IQR 38-56) years, and 72.2 % were female. The CKD prevalence was 23.3 % whereby 18.4 % had CKD stage 3a, 4.5 % had CKD stage 3 b, and 0.4 % had CKD stage 4. CKD was observed largely among patients with obesity (34.15 %), anemia (29.41 %), hypertension (45.00 %), and diabetes mellitus (50.00 %). Variables with higher odds for CKD after adjusted analysis were hypertension (OR 3.03, 95 %% CI 1.29-7.11, P = 0.0109), diabetes mellitus (OR 4.50, 95 % CI 1.35-15.03, P = 0.0144), obesity (OR 3.07, 95 % CI 1.11-8.47, P = 0.0301), anaemia (OR 2.42, 95 % CI 1.12-5.26, P = 0.0252) and for each one-unit increase in age (years), there was statistically significant increase in the odds of having CKD by 1.084 folds (OR = 1.084, 95 % CI 1.039-1.131, p = 0.0002).

Conclusion

The prevalence of CKD among patients with HIV/AIDS is high. Age, obesity, anaemia, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus were strongly associated with CKD suggesting a need for integrating initiatives for non-communicable disease control in this population.

HIV infection and ART use are associated with altered plasma clot characteristics in Black South Africans

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) are both associated with hypercoagulability. Altered clot properties could be a potential mechanism thereof. We aimed to investigate the association of HIV and ART, with fibrinogen and plasma clot properties in a group of Black South Africans.

METHODS

At baseline, 151 newly diagnosed people living with HIV (PLWH) and 176 controls were recruited. Some PLWH subsequently commenced with ARTs (n = 70) while others remained ART-naïve (n = 81). Fibrinogen and clot properties (turbidity assay) were investigated from baseline to 5-year follow-up. A sub-group of 21 women (n = 10 ART-treated; n = 11 ART-naïve) with HIV was systematically selected and matched with 12 controls, and additional clot properties (rheometry, permeability and fibre diameter) were investigated.

RESULTS

Fibrinogen was lower in the HIV groups compared to the controls, while % γ' fibrinogen was higher. PLWH had shorter lag times and lower maximum absorbance than the controls (p<0.05). Their CLTs on the other hand were longer. Most variables increased over time in all groups, but differences in the degree of change over time was observed for lag time (p = 0.024) and permeability (p = 0.03). Participants who commenced with ART had a tendency of delayed clot formation (p = 0.08) and increased clot permeability (p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

PLWH had lower total fibrinogen concentration and formed less dense clots. They also formed clots that were more difficult to lyse, which likely not resulted from altered clot properties. ART use (NNRTI's) had a moderately protective effect, delaying clot formation, and increasing clot permeability.

Adapting and testing measures of organizational context in primary care clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Implementation science frameworks situate intervention implementation and sustainment within the context of the implementing organization and system. Aspects of organizational context such as leadership have been defined and measured largely within US health care settings characterized by decentralization and individual autonomy. The relevance of these constructs in other settings may be limited by differences like collectivist orientation, resource constraints, and hierarchical power structures. We aimed to adapt measures of organizational context in South African primary care clinics.

METHODS

We convened a panel of South African experts in social science and HIV care delivery and presented implementation domains informed by existing frameworks and prior work in South Africa. Based on panel input, we selected contextual domains and adapted candidate items. We conducted cognitive interviews with 25 providers in KwaZulu-Natal Province to refine measures. We then conducted a cross-sectional survey of 16 clinics with 5-20 providers per clinic (N = 186). We assessed reliability using Cronbach's alpha and calculated interrater agreement (awg) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) at the clinic level. Within clinics with moderate agreement, we calculated correlation of clinic-level measures with each other and with hypothesized predictors - staff continuity and infrastructure - and a clinical outcome, patient retention on antiretroviral therapy.

RESULTS

Panelists emphasized contextual factors; we therefore focused on elements of clinic leadership, stress, cohesion, and collective problem solving (critical consciousness). Cognitive interviews confirmed salience of the domains and improved item clarity. After excluding items related to leaders' coordination abilities due to missingness and low agreement, all other scales demonstrated individual-level reliability and at least moderate interrater agreement in most facilities. ICC was low for most leadership measures and moderate for others. Measures tended to correlate within facility, and higher stress was significantly correlated with lower staff continuity. Organizational context was generally more positively rated in facilities that showed consistent agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

As theorized, organizational context is important in understanding program implementation within the South African health system. Most adapted measures show good reliability at individual and clinic levels. Additional revision of existing frameworks to suit this context and further testing in high and low performing clinics is warranted.

An mRNA-LNP-based Lassa virus vaccine induces protective immunity in mice

The mammarenavirus Lassa virus (LASV) causes the life-threatening hemorrhagic fever disease, Lassa fever. The lack of licensed medical countermeasures against LASV underscores the urgent need for the development of novel LASV vaccines, which has been hampered by the requirement for a biosafety level 4 facility to handle live LASV. Here, we investigated the efficacy of mRNA-lipid nanoparticle (mRNA-LNP)-based vaccines expressing the LASV glycoprotein precursor (LASgpc) or nucleoprotein (LCMnp) of the prototypic mammarenavirus, lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), in mice. Two doses of LASgpc- or LCMnp-mRNA-LNP administered intravenously (i.v.) protected C57BL/6 mice from a lethal challenge with a recombinant (r) LCMV expressing a modified LASgpc (rLCMV/LASgpc2m) inoculated intracranially. Intramuscular (i.m.) immunization with two doses of LASgpc- or LCMnp-mRNA-LNP significantly reduced the viral load in C57BL/6 mice inoculated i.v. with rLCMV/LASgpc2m. High levels of viremia and lethality were observed in CBA mice inoculated i.v. with rLCMV/LASgpc2m, which were abrogated by i.m. immunization with two doses of LASgpc-mRNA-LNP. The protective efficacy of two i.m. doses of LCMnp-mRNA-LNP was confirmed in a lethal hemorrhagic disease model of FVB mice i.v. inoculated with wild-type rLCMV. In all conditions tested, negligible and high levels of LASgpc- and LCMnp-specific antibodies were detected in mRNA-LNP-immunized mice, respectively, but robust LASgpc- and LCMnp-specific CD8+ T cell responses were induced. Accordingly, plasma from LASgpc-mRNA-LNP-immunized mice did not exhibit neutralizing activity. Our findings and surrogate mouse models of LASV infection, which can be studied at a reduced biocontainment level, provide a critical foundation for the rapid development of mRNA-LNP-based LASV vaccines.IMPORTANCELassa virus (LASV) is a highly pathogenic mammarenavirus responsible for several hundred thousand infections annually in West African countries, causing a high number of lethal Lassa fever (LF) cases. Despite its significant impact on human health, clinically approved, safe, and effective medical countermeasures against LF are not available. The requirement of a biosafety level 4 facility to handle live LASV has been one of the main obstacles to the research and development of LASV countermeasures. Here, we report that two doses of mRNA-lipid nanoparticle-based vaccines expressing the LASV glycoprotein precursor (LASgpc) or nucleoprotein (LCMnp) of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), a mammarenavirus genetically closely related to LASV, conferred protection to recombinant LCMV-based surrogate mouse models of lethal LASV infection. Notably, robust LASgpc- and LCMnp-specific CD8+ T cell responses were detected in mRNA-LNP-immunized mice, whereas no virus-neutralizing activity was observed.

High-resolution mapping of essential maternal and child health service coverage in Nigeria: a machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

National-level coverage estimates of maternal and child health (MCH) services mask district-level and community-level geographical inequities. The purpose of this study is to estimate grid-level coverage of essential MCH services in Nigeria using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

Essential MCH services in this study included antenatal care, facility-based delivery, childhood vaccinations and treatments of childhood illnesses. We estimated generalised additive models (GAMs) and gradient boosting regressions (GB) for each essential MCH service using data from five national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 and geospatial socioeconomic, environmental and physical characteristics. Using the best-performed model for each service, we map predicted coverage at 1 km2 and 5 km2 spatial resolutions in urban and rural areas, respectively.

RESULTS

GAMs consistently outperformed GB models across a range of essential MCH services, demonstrating low systematic prediction errors. High-resolution maps revealed stark geographic disparities in MCH service coverage, especially between rural and urban areas and among different states and service types. Temporal trends indicated an overall increase in MCH service coverage from 2003 to 2018, although with variations by service type and location. Priority areas with lower coverage of both maternal and vaccination services were identified, mostly located in the northern parts of Nigeria.

CONCLUSION

High-resolution spatial estimates can guide geographic prioritisation and help develop better strategies for implementation plans, allowing limited resources to be targeted to areas with lower coverage of essential MCH services.

Cardiovascular Dynamics in HIV: The Influence of Adrenal Function and Nutritional Status

This interdisciplinary review explores the intricate nexus between HIV infection, nutrition, adrenal gland function, and cardiovascular health, highlighting a critical aspect of HIV management often overlooked in current literature. With the advent of antiretroviral therapy, the life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically improved, transforming HIV into a manageable chronic condition. However, this success brings forth new challenges, notably an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases among people living with HIV. We examine the normal physiology of the adrenal gland, including its role in mineral metabolism, a crucial facet of nutrition. We discuss the evolution of knowledge tying adrenal pathology to cardiovascular disease. We explore the impact of HIV on adrenal gland findings from a gross pathology perspective, as well as the clinical impact of adrenal insufficiency in HIV. The review further elucidates the role of nutrition in this context, considering the double burden of undernutrition and obesity prevalent in regions heavily affected by HIV. By aggregating findings from longitudinal studies and recent clinical trials, the review presents compelling evidence of increased cardiovascular disease among people living with HIV compared with people without HIV. It highlights the critical role of the adrenal glands in regulating nutrient metabolism and its implications for cardiovascular health, drawing attention to the potential for dietary interventions and targeted therapies to mitigate these risks. This review urges a paradigm shift in the management of HIV, advocating for a holistic approach that incorporates nutritional assessment and interventions into routine HIV care to address the complex interplay between HIV, adrenal function, and cardiovascular health. Through this lens, we offer insights into novel therapeutic strategies aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk in people living with HIV, contributing to the ongoing efforts to enhance the quality of life and longevity in this population.

Climate change: A pointer to increased small-scale fisher drowning deaths

Drowning is an overlooked public health concern and drowning risk is dependent on environmental risk factors. The preponderance of drowning deaths occurs in low- and middle-income countries. Small-scale fishers face high occupational risk of drowning. Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of storms, thereby exacerbating fishers' risks and creating a need to examine the contribution of storms to fisher drowning deaths for the development of mitigation strategies. We examined this relationship between weather and fisher drowning deaths in Lake Victoria, which is Africa's largest lake, a site of high fishing pressure, and where climate change is predicted to increase thunderstorms. We conducted a verbal autopsy with people knowledgeable about recent fatal fisher drowning incidents to collect information about the deceased fishers and circumstances surrounding the incidents across 43 landing sites in the Kenyan shore of Lake Victoria. Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders also elucidated community perspectives on drowning risks. Fatal drownings were often attributed to bad weather (41.8%). Other risk factors, such as non-use of life jacket and navigation equipment, co-occurred with bad weather at high rates (69.5% and 67.8%, respectively) to jointly contribute to fatal drowning incidents. Such co-occurrence of risk factors indicates that actions across multiple risk factors can help mitigate the issue. Stakeholder analysis revealed a range of opportunities for improved communication of risks and action to mitigate risks across boat operators and manufacturers, as well as multiple levels of management. Across global small-scale fisheries, limited use of safety equipment and intensive fishing pressure may coincide with increases in extreme weather events, necessitating action to address current and mitigate future drowning risks to small-scale fishers.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trend and principal components of HIV/AIDS among adults in SSA

This study aimed to identify the most important principal components (PCs) that contribute to the prevalence and change of HIV/AIDS in 44 SSA and data from different national and international datasets. The study estimated HIV prevalence, trend, and principal component analysis (PCA). Using the elbow method, the number of important PCs and contributions was identified. The quality of representation was checked, and more contributing variables for most important PCs were identified. Finally, the status by prevalence, the progress by trend, the more influenced component by PCA, and the more influenced variable with quality of representation by PCs were reported. The study found that HIV prevalence varied significantly, with 30 of the countries showed good progress/decline. Four PCs accounted for 51% of the total variance. Literacy, cohabitation, media exposure, and HIV status awareness are highly contributing factors. Based on these findings, a gap-based response will help reduce the burden of HIV.

Mapping TB incidence across districts in Uganda to inform health program activities

BACKGROUND

Identifying spatial variation in TB burden can help national TB programs effectively allocate resources to reach and treat all people with TB. However, data limitations pose challenges for subnational TB burden estimation.

METHODS

We developed a small-area modeling approach using geo-positioned prevalence survey data, case notifications, and geospatial covariates to simultaneously estimate spatial variation in TB incidence and case notification completeness across districts in Uganda from 2016-2019. TB incidence was estimated using 1) cluster-level data from the national 2014-2015 TB prevalence survey transformed to incidence, and 2) case notifications adjusted for geospatial covariates of health system access. The case notification completeness surface was fit jointly using observed case notifications and estimated incidence.

RESULTS

Estimated pulmonary TB incidence among adults varied >10-fold across Ugandan districts in 2019. Case detection increased nationwide from 2016 to 2019, and the number of districts with case detection rates >70% quadrupled. District-level estimates of TB incidence were five times more precise than a model using TB prevalence survey data alone.

CONCLUSION

A joint spatial modeling approach provides useful insights for TB program operation, outlining areas where TB incidence estimates are highest and health programs should concentrate their efforts. This approach can be applied in many countries with high TB burden.

Prevalence and determinants of cardiovascular risk factors in Lesotho: a population-based survey

BACKGROUND

There are no recent data on the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVDRFs) in Lesotho. This study aims to assess the prevalence of CVDRFs and their determinants.

METHODS

We conducted a household-based, cross-sectional survey among adults ≥18 y of age in 120 randomly sampled clusters in two districts.

RESULTS

Among 6061 participants, 52.2% were female and their median age was 39 y (interquartile range 27-58). The overall prevalence of overweight, diabetes, elevated blood pressure (BP) and tobacco use was 39.9%, 5.3%, 21.6% and 24.9%, respectively. Among participants, 34.6% had none, 45.2% had one and 20.2% had two or more CVDRFs. Women were more likely to have two or more CVDRFs (20.7% vs 12.3%). Overall, 7.5% of participants had elevated total cholesterol, 52.7% had low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and 1.6% had elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Among younger participants (18-29 y), 16.1% reported tobacco use, 28.6% were overweight, 1.5% had diabetes and 3.5% had elevated BP. Household wealth positively correlated with the prevalence of elevated BP, overweight and diabetes, whereas tobacco use was higher among people in the lowest three wealth quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

CVDRFs are highly prevalent in Lesotho across age and sex groups, underlining the importance of strengthening prevention and care programs in Lesotho and similar settings in southern Africa.

Household transport ownership and HIV viral suppression in rural Uganda: a cross- sectional, population-based study

Background

Empirical data on transportation access and HIV treatment outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa are rare. We assessed the association between household transport ownership and HIV viral suppression in rural Uganda.

Methods

The study was conducted among people living with HIV aged 15-49 years using cross-sectional data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), collected from June 14, 2018, to November 6, 2020. Transport ownership was defined as household possession of a car, motorcycle, or bicycle. HIV viral suppression was defined as < 1000 HIV RNA copies/ml. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation identified unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of HIV viral suppression by transport ownership.

Results

The study included 3,060 persons aged 15-49 living with HIV. Overall HIV viral suppression was 86.5% and was higher among women compared to men (89.3% versus 81.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.18). A total of 874 participants (28.6%) resided in households that owned at least one means of transport. HIV viral suppression was 79.8% among men and 88.2% among women from households without any means of transport, compared to 85.4% among men and 92.4% among women from households with at least one means of transport. Adjusted prevalence ratios of HIV viral suppression were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) for males and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.10) for females from households owning at least one means of transport compared with those from households with none.

Conclusion

There was increased HIV viral suppression among people living with HIV from households with transport means compared to those from households without transport means, suggesting transport may facilitate access to, and continued engagement with, HIV treatment services.

Spatial distribution and determinants of HIV high burden in the Southern African sub-region

BACKGROUND

Spatial analysis at different levels can help understand spatial variation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, disease drivers, and targeted interventions. Combining spatial analysis and the evaluation of the determinants of the HIV burden in Southern African countries is essential for a better understanding of the disease dynamics in high-burden settings.

METHODS

The study countries were selected based on the availability of demographic and health surveys (DHS) and corresponding geographic coordinates. We used multivariable regression to evaluate the determinants of HIV burden and assessed the presence and nature of HIV spatial autocorrelation in six Southern African countries.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HIV for each country varied between 11.3% in Zambia and 22.4% in South Africa. The HIV prevalence rate was higher among female respondents in all six countries. There were reductions in prevalence estimates in most countries yearly from 2011 to 2020. The hotspot cluster findings show that the major cities in each country are the key sites of high HIV burden. Compared with female respondents, the odds of being HIV positive were lesser among the male respondents. The probability of HIV infection was higher among those who had sexually transmitted infections (STI) in the last 12 months, divorced and widowed individuals, and women aged 25 years and older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research findings show that analysis of survey data could provide reasonable estimates of the wide-ranging spatial structure of the HIV epidemic in Southern African countries. Key determinants such as individuals who are divorced, middle-aged women, and people who recently treated STIs, should be the focus of HIV prevention and control interventions. The spatial distribution of high-burden areas for HIV in the selected countries was more pronounced in the major cities. Interventions should also be focused on locations identified as hotspot clusters.

Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage

Introduction

To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which HIV viraemia is concentrating.

Methods

We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013-2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, one-year age bands and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia concentrates.

Results

Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 and men aged 30-34 were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or had already achieved 95-95-95 targets.

Conclusions

The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.

Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), associations with sociodemographic and behavioural factors, and assessment of the syndromic management of vaginal discharge in women with urogenital complaints in Mozambique

In Mozambique, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are estimated to be prevalent, but diagnosis and treatment of curable STIs rely only on syndromic management. We examined the prevalence of four non-viral STIs and HIV-1/2, based on etiological diagnosis, associations with sociodemographic and behavioural factors, and the STI diagnostic accuracy of the vaginal discharge syndromic management in women with urogenital complaints in Maputo, Mozambique. A cross-sectional study was performed in Maputo, Mozambique, February 2018-January 2019, enrolling 924 women of reproductive age with urogenital complaints. Endocervical/vaginal swabs were sampled and chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and Mycoplasma genitalium infections were diagnosed using a multiplex real-time PCR (AmpliSens; InterLabServices). Serological testing was performed for HIV-1/2. A structured questionnaire collected metadata. All data were analyzed in STATA/IC 12.1 using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests and logistic regression model. About 40% of the women were less than 24 years old, 50.8% were single, 62.1% had their sexual debut between 12 and 17 years of age, and the main complaint was vaginal discharge syndrome (85%). The prevalence of chlamydia was 15.5%, trichomoniasis 12.1%, gonorrhoea 4.0%, M. genitalium 2.1%, and HIV-1/2 22.3%. The vaginal discharge syndrome flowchart had a sensitivity of 73.0%-82.5% and a specificity of 14%-15% for the detection of any individual non-viral STI in women with urogenital complaints. In total, 19.2% of the symptomatic women with chlamydia, trichomoniasis or gonorrhoea would not be detected and accordingly treated using the vaginal discharge syndromic management (missed treatment) and 70.0% of the women would be treated despite not being infected with any of these three STIs (overtreatment). In conclusion, a high prevalence of especially chlamydia, trichomoniasis, and HIV-1/2 was found in women of childbearing age with urogenital complaints in Maputo, Mozambique. Syndromic management of vaginal discharge revealed low accuracy in the detection of STIs in symptomatic women, especially low specificity, which resulted in under-treatment of STI-positive cases and incorrect or over-treatment of women with urogenital complaints, many of whom were negative for all the non-viral STIs. Etiological diagnosis is imperative for effective management of STIs in symptomatic and asymptomatic women.

Comprehensive HIV knowledge and associated factors among reproductive-age women: analysis of the Gambia Demographic and Health Survey 2019/2020

INTRODUCTION

Globally, there are 37.7 million people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). So far, there is no study done in Gambia which assessed comprehensive HIV knowledge and its associated factors. Therefore, this study aims to assess comprehensive HIV knowledge and its associated factors among reproductive-age women in Gambia.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of comprehensive HIV knowledge and its associated factors among reproductive-age women in Gambia.

METHODS

The study used the Gambian Demographic and Health Survey, which was conducted from 21 November 2019 to 30 March 2020 in Gambia. The survey employed a stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique to recruit study participants. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with HIV comprehensive knowledge. Statistical significance was declared at a P value of less than 0.05 with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of comprehensive HIV knowledge was 27.1% (25.1-36.2%). Older age [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.16-1.26)], using contraceptive [AOR of 1.15 (95% CI 1.01-1.31)], higher education [AOR of 4.73 (95% CI 3.86-5.81)], rich wealth quintile [AOR of 1.61 (95% CI 1.37-1.87)], media exposure [AOR of 1.76 (95% CI 1.39-2.23)], ever tested for HIV [AOR of 1.55 (95% CI 1.42-1.74)], visited health facility within the last 12 months [AOR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.12-1.41)] and decision-making autonomy [AOR of 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.60)] were positively associated with comprehensive HIV knowledge. However, being married [AOR of 0.72 (95% CI 0.62-0.82)] was negatively associated with comprehensive HIV knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of comprehensive HIV knowledge was low in Gambia. Educational interventions that focused mainly on awareness creation about HIV/AIDS should be designed especially for married women and lower socio-economic status. An effort has to be made to address those disparities at the national level.

Mosquito Bed Net Use and Burkitt Lymphoma Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is one of the most common childhood cancers in sub-Saharan Africa and is etiologically linked to malaria. However, evidence for an effect of malaria interventions on BL is limited.

Objective

To investigate the potential population-level association between large-scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) in sub-Saharan Africa in the 2000s and BL incidence.

Data Sources

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a search was conducted in the Embase, Global Health, and Medline databases and in cancer registry publications between January 1, 1990, and February 27, 2023.

Study Selection

All epidemiologic studies on BL incidence rates in children and adolescents aged 0 to 15 years in sub-Saharan African countries where malaria is endemic were identified by 2 reviewers blinded to each other's decision.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

The systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses reporting guideline. Data were extracted independently by 2 reviewers, and quality was scored based on 3 predefined criteria: data collection, case ascertainment, and calculation of person-time at risk.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence rates of BL during childhood and mean ITN use in the population. Data were analyzed using a random-effects negative binomial regression model.

Results

Of 2333 studies meeting selection criteria, 23 comprising 66 data points on BL incidence were included based on 5226 BL cases from locations with large-scale ITN use in 17 countries. Rates of BL were 44% (95% CI, 12%-64%) lower in the period after ITN introduction compared with before. The adjusted pooled incidence rates of BL were 1.36 (95% CI, 0.88-2.10) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.50-1.16) per 100 000 person-years before and after introduction of ITNs, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, a 1-percentage point increase in mean ITN use in the population in the 10 years before BL data collection was associated with a 2% (95% CI, 1%-4%) reduction in BL incidence.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, large-scale rollout of ITNs in the 2000s was associated with a reduction in BL burden among children in sub-Saharan Africa. Although published data may not be representative of all incidence rates across sub-Saharan Africa, this study highlights a potential additional benefit of malaria control programs.

Adverse childhood experiences, mental distress, self-harm and suicidality, and cumulative HIV risk by sex in Lesotho

BACKGROUND

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been understudied in low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES, PARTICIPANTS, SETTING

We explored associations between mental distress, self-harm or suicidality, and HIV risk and individual and cumulative ACEs (sexual, emotional, and physical violence; witnessing community and interparental violence; orphanhood) among youth aged 13-24 in Lesotho.

METHODS

Multivariable logistic regressions stratified by sex using nationally representative 2018 Lesotho Violence Against Children and Youth Survey (nfemale = 7101; nmale = 1467) data.

RESULTS

Over 75 % of males and females experienced at least 1 ACE. Among males, physical and community violence were significantly associated with mental distress; orphan status and emotional violence was associated with self-harm/suicidality. Males who witnessed interparental violence had higher odds of disclosing 2 types and 3 or more types of HIV risk versus none. Among females, being a double orphan and having experienced sexual, emotional, physical, community, and interparental violence were significantly associated with mental distress and any self-harm/suicidality in both models. Females who experienced physical violence had higher odds of disclosing 3 or more risk types versus no risk. Statistically significant associations emerged between cumulative ACEs and mental distress, self-harm/suicidality, and higher levels of HIV risk for both males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Differential patterns of associations between ACEs and mental health problems and HIV risk emerged by sex. Scalable, integrated individual and community efforts to prevent ACEs, provide mental health supports, and encourage safer sexual behaviors among those exposed are needed and could benefit youth in Lesotho.

Examining geospatial and temporal distribution of invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella disease occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease is a significant health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. While our knowledge of a larger-scale variation is growing, understanding of the subnational variation in iNTS disease occurrence is lacking, yet crucial for targeted intervention.

METHOD

We performed a systematic review of reported occurrences of iNTS disease in sub-Saharan Africa, consulting literature from PubMed, Embase and Web of Science published since 2000. Eligibility for inclusion was not limited by study type but required that studies reported original data on human iNTS diseases based on the culture of a normally sterile site, specifying subnational locations and the year, and were available as full-text articles. We excluded studies that diagnosed iNTS disease based on clinical indications, cultures from non-sterile sites or serological testing. We estimated the probability of occurrence of iNTS disease for sub-Saharan Africa on 20 km × 20 km grids by exploring the association with geospatial covariates such as malaria, HIV, childhood growth failure, access to improved water, and sanitation using a boosted regression tree.

RESULTS

We identified 130 unique references reporting human iNTS disease in 21 countries published from 2000 through 2020. The estimated probability of iNTS occurrence grids showed significant spatial heterogeneity at all levels (20 km × 20 km grids, subnational, country and subregional levels) and temporal heterogeneity by year. For 2020, the probability of occurrence was higher in Middle Africa (0.34, 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.46), followed by Western Africa (0.33, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.44), Eastern Africa (0.24, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.33) and Southern Africa (0.08, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.11). Temporal heterogeneity indicated that the probability of occurrence increased between 2000 and 2020 in countries such as the Republic of the Congo (0.05 to 0.59) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (0.10 to 0.48) whereas it decreased in countries such as Uganda (0.65 to 0.23) or Zimbabwe (0.61 to 0.37).

CONCLUSION

The iNTS disease occurrence varied greatly across sub-Saharan Africa, with certain regions being disproportionately affected. Exploring regions at high risk for iNTS disease, despite the limitations in our data, may inform focused resource allocation. This targeted approach may enhance efforts to combat iNTS disease in more affected areas.

Interviewer biases in medical survey data: The example of blood pressure measurements

Health agencies rely upon survey-based physical measures to estimate the prevalence of key global health indicators such as hypertension. Such measures are usually collected by nonhealthcare worker personnel and are potentially subject to measurement error due to variations in interviewer technique and setting, termed "interviewer effects." In the context of physical measurements, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, interviewer-induced biases have not yet been examined. Using blood pressure as a case study, we aimed to determine the relative contribution of interviewer effects on the total variance of blood pressure measurements in three large nationally representative health surveys from the Global South. We utilized 169,681 observations between 2008 and 2019 from three health surveys (Indonesia Family Life Survey, National Income Dynamics Study of South Africa, and Longitudinal Aging Study in India). In a linear mixed model, we modeled systolic blood pressure as a continuous dependent variable and interviewer effects as random effects alongside individual factors as covariates. To quantify the interviewer effect-induced uncertainty in hypertension prevalence, we utilized a bootstrap approach comparing subsamples of observed blood pressure measurements to their adjusted counterparts. Our analysis revealed that the proportion of variation contributed by interviewers to blood pressure measurements was statistically significant but small: ∼ 0.24 - - 2.2 % depending on the cohort. Thus, hypertension prevalence estimates were not substantially impacted at national scales. However, individual extreme interviewers could account for measurement divergences as high as 12%. Thus, highly biased interviewers could have important impacts on hypertension estimates at the subdistrict level.

Baiting the hook: Fish scarcity, gendered division of labour, and the fish-for-sex trade

Transactional sex in sub-Saharan Africa's fishing communities, driven by the highly gendered organisation of production, is widely recognised as a key driver of HIV transmission in lakeshore areas. This longitudinal study investigates the economic drivers of the trade and its impact on sexual health outcomes. Specifically, the impact of regional and district fish market shocks and comparable maize shocks on facility-level sexual health outcomes are examined in Tanzania's shoreline communities. Following unfavourable shocks to the fish market, such as high prices or low amounts of fish captured, this paper finds that new HIV cases, newly pregnant women attending antenatal clinic, and the number of people treated for syphilis increases with proximity to the shoreline, supporting the hypothesis that the fish-for-sex trade intensifies when fish supply is relatively scarce. Further, the observed increase in new HIV cases is driven by new cases in women. Contrasting effects are observed following maize price shocks, where facilities see an increase in both male and female new HIV cases following a favourable price shock. These findings highlight the role that gender-based organisation of production plays in shaping sexual health inequalities following shocks to a good.