Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity

Demographic but not competitive time lags can transiently amplify climate-induced changes in vegetation carbon storage

How terrestrial ecosystems will accumulate carbon as the climate continues to change is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Under growth-stimulating environmental change, time lags inherent in population and community dynamic processes have been posed to dampen, or alternatively amplify, short-term carbon gain in terrestrial vegetation, but these outcomes can be difficult to predict. To theoretically frame this problem, we developed a simple model of vegetation dynamics that identifies the stage-structured demographic and competitive processes that could govern the timescales of carbon storage and loss. We show that demographic lags associated with growth-stimulating environmental change can allow a rapid increase in population-level carbon storage that is lost back to the atmosphere in later years. However, this transient carbon storage only emerges when environmental change increases the transition of adult individuals into a larger size class that suffers markedly higher mortality. Otherwise, demographic lags simply slow carbon accumulation. Counterintuitively, an analogous tradeoff between maximum adult size and survivorship in two-species models, coupled with environmental change-driven replacement, does not generate the transient carbon gain seen in the single-species models. Instead lags in competitive replacement slow the approach to the eventual carbon trajectory. Together, our results suggest that time lags inherent in demographic and compositional turnover tend to slow carbon accumulation in systems responding to growth-stimulating environmental change. Only under specific conditions will lagged demographic processes in such systems drive transient carbon accumulation, conditions that investigators can examine in nature to help project future carbon trajectories.

Soil Organic Carbon Prediction Based on Vis-NIR Spectral Classification Data Using GWPCA-FCM Algorithm

Soil visible and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy is an effective tool for the rapid estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC). The development of spectroscopic technology has increased the application of spectral libraries for SOC research. However, the direct application of spectral libraries for SOC prediction remains challenging due to the high variability in soil types and soil-forming factors. This study aims to address this challenge by improving SOC prediction accuracy through spectral classification. We utilized the European Land Use and Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS) large-scale spectral library and employed a geographically weighted principal component analysis (GWPCA) combined with a fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm to classify the spectra. Subsequently, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR) and the Cubist model for SOC prediction. Additionally, we classified the soil data by land cover types and compared the classification prediction results with those obtained from spectral classification. The results showed that (1) the GWPCA-FCM-Cubist model yielded the best predictions, with an average accuracy of R2 = 0.83 and RPIQ = 2.95, representing improvements of 10.33% and 18.00% in R2 and RPIQ, respectively, compared to unclassified full sample modeling. (2) The accuracy of spectral classification modeling based on GWPCA-FCM was significantly superior to that of land cover type classification modeling. Specifically, there was a 7.64% and 14.22% improvement in R2 and RPIQ, respectively, under PLSR, and a 13.36% and 29.10% improvement in R2 and RPIQ, respectively, under Cubist. (3) Overall, the prediction accuracy of Cubist models was better than that of PLSR models. These findings indicate that the application of GWPCA and FCM clustering in conjunction with the Cubist modeling technique can significantly enhance the prediction accuracy of SOC from large-scale spectral libraries.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Increased leaf area index and efficiency drive enhanced production under elevated atmospheric [CO2 ] in a pine-dominated stand showing no progressive nitrogen limitation

Enhancement of net primary production (NPP) in forests as atmospheric [CO2 ] increases is likely limited by the availability of other growth resources. The Duke Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment was located on a moderate-fertility site in the southeastern US, in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation with broadleaved species growing mostly in mid-canopy and understory. Duke FACE ran from 1994 to 2010 and combined elevated [CO2 ] (eCO2 ) with nitrogen (N) additions. We assessed the spatial and temporal variation of NPP response using a dataset that includes previously unpublished data from 6 years of the replicated CO2  × N experiment and extends to 2 years beyond the termination of enrichment. Averaged over time (1997-2010), NPP of pine and broadleaved species were 38% and 52% higher under eCO2 compared to ambient conditions. Furthermore, there was no evidence of a decline in enhancement over time in any plot regardless of its native site quality. The relation between spatial variation in the response and native site quality was suggested but inconclusive. Nitrogen amendments under eCO2 , in turn, resulted in an additional 11% increase in pine NPP. For pine, the eCO2 -induced increase in NPP was similar above- and belowground and was driven by both increased leaf area index (L) and production efficiency (PE = NPP/L). For broadleaved species, coarse-root biomass production was more than 200% higher under eCO2 and accounted for the entire production response, driven by increased PE. Notably, the fraction of annual NPP retained in total living biomass was higher under eCO2 , reflecting a slight shift in allocation fraction to woody mass and a lower mortality rate. Our findings also imply that tree growth may not have been only N-limited, but perhaps constrained by the availability of other nutrients. The observed sustained NPP enhancement, even without N-additions, demonstrates no progressive N limitation.

A meta-analysis highlights globally widespread potassium limitation in terrestrial ecosystems

Potassium (K+ ) is the most abundant inorganic cation in plant cells, playing a critical role in various plant functions. However, the impacts of K on natural terrestrial ecosystems have been less studied compared with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Here, we present a global meta-analysis aimed at quantifying the response of aboveground production to K addition. This analysis is based on 144 field K fertilization experiments. We also investigate the influences of climate, soil properties, ecosystem types, and fertilizer regimes on the responses of aboveground production. We find that: K addition significantly increases aboveground production by 12.3% (95% CI: 7.4-17.5%), suggesting a widespread occurrence of K limitation across terrestrial ecosystems; K limitation is more prominent in regions with humid climates, acidic soils, or weathered soils; the effect size of K addition varies among climate zones/regions, and is influenced by multiple factors; and previous N : K and K : P thresholds utilized to detect K limitation in wetlands cannot be applied to other biomes. Our findings emphasize the role of K in limiting terrestrial productivity, which should be integrated into future terrestrial ecosystems models.

Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape-level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat-derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post-fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space-for-time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid-succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8-40% during June and July for 2- to 59-year stands relative to pre-fire controls. From the analysis of post-fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long-term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early- and mid-summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long-term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long-term increases in carbon storage.

Increased atmospheric CO2 and the transit time of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is controversial and not yet fully understood, with previous large-scale forest manipulation experiments exhibiting contrasting responses. Although there is consensus that increased CO2 has a relevant effect on instantaneous processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration, there are large uncertainties regarding the fate of extra assimilated carbon in ecosystems. Filling this research gap is challenging because tracing the movement of new carbon across ecosystem compartments involves the study of multiple processes occurring over a wide range of timescales, from hours to millennia. We posit that a comprehensive quantification of the effect of increased CO2 must answer two interconnected questions: How much and for how long is newly assimilated carbon stored in ecosystems? Therefore, we propose that the transit time distribution of carbon is the key concept needed to effectively address these questions. Here, we show how the transit time distribution of carbon can be used to assess the fate of newly assimilated carbon and the timescales at which it is cycled in ecosystems. We use as an example a transit time distribution obtained from a tropical forest and show that most of the 60% of fixed carbon is respired in less than 1 year; therefore, we infer that under increased CO2 , most of the new carbon would follow a similar fate unless increased CO2 would cause changes in the rates at which carbon is cycled and transferred among ecosystem compartments. We call for a more frequent adoption of the transit time concept in studies seeking to quantify the ecosystem response to increased CO2 .

Nitrogen addition delays the emergence of an aridity-induced threshold for plant biomass

Crossing certain aridity thresholds in global drylands can lead to abrupt decays of ecosystem attributes such as plant productivity, potentially causing land degradation and desertification. It is largely unknown, however, whether these thresholds can be altered by other key global change drivers known to affect the water-use efficiency and productivity of vegetation, such as elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N). Using >5000 empirical measurements of plant biomass, we showed that crossing an aridity (1-precipitation/potential evapotranspiration) threshold of ∼0.50, which marks the transition from dry sub-humid to semi-arid climates, led to abrupt declines in aboveground biomass (AGB) and progressive increases in root:shoot ratios, thus importantly affecting carbon stocks and their distribution. N addition significantly increased AGB and delayed the emergence of its aridity threshold from 0.49 to 0.55 (P < 0.05). By coupling remote sensing estimates of leaf area index with simulations from multiple models, we found that CO2 enrichment did not alter the observed aridity threshold. By 2100, and under the RCP 8.5 scenario, we forecast a 0.3% net increase in the global land area exceeding the aridity threshold detected under a scenario that includes N deposition, in comparison to a 2.9% net increase if the N effect is not considered. Our study thus indicates that N addition could mitigate to a great extent the negative impact of increasing aridity on plant biomass in drylands. These findings are critical for improving forecasts of abrupt vegetation changes in response to ongoing global environmental change.

Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S

Climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) are important drivers of forest demography. Here we apply previously derived growth and survival responses for 94 tree species, representing >90% of the contiguous US forest basal area, to project how changes in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition from 20 different future scenarios may affect forest composition to 2100. We find that under the low climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), reductions in aboveground tree biomass from higher temperatures are roughly offset by increases in aboveground tree biomass from reductions in N and S deposition. However, under the higher climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) the decreases from climate change overwhelm increases from reductions in N and S deposition. These broad trends underlie wide variation among species. We found averaged across temperature scenarios the relative abundance of 60 species were projected to decrease more than 5% and 20 species were projected to increase more than 5%; and reductions of N and S deposition led to a decrease for 13 species and an increase for 40 species. This suggests large shifts in the composition of US forests in the future. Negative climate effects were mostly from elevated temperature and were not offset by scenarios with wetter conditions. We found that by 2100 an estimated 1 billion trees under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 20 billion trees under the RCP 8.5 scenario may be pushed outside the temperature record upon which these relationships were derived. These results may not fully capture future changes in forest composition as several other factors were not included. Overall efforts to reduce atmospheric deposition of N and S will likely be insufficient to overcome climate change impacts on forest demography across much of the United States unless we adhere to the low climate change scenario.

European forests under global climate change: Review of tree growth processes, crises and management strategies

The ongoing global climate change is challenging all sectors, forestry notwithstanding. On the one hand, forest ecosystems are exposed to and threatened by climate change, but on the other hand, forests can influence the course of climate change by regulating the water regime, air quality, carbon sequestration, and even reduce climate extremes. Therefore, it is crucial to see climate change not only as a risk causing forest disturbances and economic consequences but also as an opportunity for innovative approaches to forest management, conservation, and silviculture based on the results of long-term research. We reviewed 365 studies evaluating the impact of climate change on European forest ecosystems, all published during the last 30 years (1993-2022). The most significant consequences of climate change include more frequent and destructive large-scale forest disturbances (wildfire, windstorm, drought, flood, bark beetle, root rot), and tree species migration. Species distribution shifts and changes in tree growth rate have substantial effects on ecosystem carbon storage. Diameter/volume increment changed from -1 to +99% in Central and Northern Europe, while it decreased from -12 to -49% in Southern Europe across tree species over the last ca. 50 years. However, it is important to sharply focus on the causes of climate change and subsequently, on adaptive strategies, which can successfully include the creation of species-diverse, spatially and age-wise structured stands (decrease drought stress and increase production), prolongation of the regenerative period, or the use of suitable introduced tree species (e.g., Douglas fir, black pine, and Mediterranean oaks). But the desired changes are based on increasing diversity and the mitigation of climate change, and will require significantly higher initial costs for silviculture practices. In conclusion, the scope and complexity of the topic require further comprehensive and long-term studies focusing on international cooperation. We see a critical gap in the transfer of research results into actual forest practice, which will be the key factor influencing afforestation of forest stands and forest growth in the following decades. What our forests will look like for future generations and what the resulting impact of climate change will be on forestry is in the hands of forest managers, depending on supportive forestry research and climate change policy, including adaptive and mitigation strategies.

Short- and long-term responses of leaf day respiration to elevated atmospheric CO2

Evaluating leaf day respiration rate (RL), which is believed to differ from that in the dark (RDk), is essential for predicting global carbon cycles under climate change. Several studies have suggested that atmospheric CO2 impacts RL. However, the magnitude of such an impact and associated mechanisms remain uncertain. To explore the CO2 effect on RL, wheat (Triticum aestivum) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus) plants were grown under ambient (410 ppm) and elevated (820 ppm) CO2 mole fraction ([CO2]). RL was estimated from combined gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements using the Kok method, the Kok-Phi method, and a revised Kok method (Kok-Cc method). We found that elevated growth [CO2] led to an 8.4% reduction in RL and a 16.2% reduction in RDk in both species, in parallel to decreased leaf N and chlorophyll contents at elevated growth [CO2]. We also looked at short-term CO2 effects during gas exchange experiments. Increased RL or RL/RDk at elevated measurement [CO2] were found using the Kok and Kok-Phi methods, but not with the Kok-Cc method. This discrepancy was attributed to the unaccounted changes in Cc in the former methods. We found that the Kok and Kok-Phi methods underestimate RL and overestimate the inhibition of respiration under low irradiance conditions of the Kok curve, and the inhibition of RL was only 6%, representing 26% of the apparent Kok effect. We found no significant long-term CO2 effect on RL/RDk, originating from a concurrent reduction in RL and RDk at elevated growth [CO2], and likely mediated by acclimation of nitrogen metabolism.

Integrating terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to constrain estimates of land-atmosphere carbon exchange

In this Perspective, we put forward an integrative framework to improve estimates of land-atmosphere carbon exchange based on the accumulation of carbon in the landscape as constrained by its lateral export through rivers. The framework uses the watershed as the fundamental spatial unit and integrates all terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems as well as their hydrologic carbon exchanges. Application of the framework should help bridge the existing gap between land and atmosphere-based approaches and offers a platform to increase communication and synergy among the terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric research communities that is paramount to advance landscape carbon budget assessments.

Above-ground tree carbon storage in response to nitrogen deposition in the U.S. is heterogeneous and may have weakened

Changes in nitrogen (N) availability affect the ability for forest ecosystems to store carbon (C). Here we extend an analysis of the growth and survival of 94 tree species and 1.2 million trees, to estimate the incremental effects of N deposition on changes in aboveground C (dC/dN) across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). We find that although the average effect of N deposition on aboveground C is positive for the CONUS (dC/dN=+9 kg C per kg N), there is wide variation among species and regions. Furthermore, in the Northeastern U.S. where we may compare responses from 2000-2016 with those from the 1980s-90s, we find the recent estimate of dC/dN is weaker than from the 1980s-90s due to species-level changes in responses to N deposition. This suggests that the U.S. forest C-sink varies widely across forests and may be weakening overall, possibly necessitating more aggressive climate policies than originally thought.

Global patterns of plant and microbial biomass in response to CO2 fumigation

Introduction

The stimulation of plant and microbial growth has been widely observed as a result of elevated CO₂ concentrations (eCO₂), however, this stimulation could be influenced by various factors and their relative importance remains unclear.

Methods

A global meta-analysis was performed using 884 lines of observations collected from published papers, which analyzed the eCO₂ impact on plant and microbial biomass.

Results

A significant positive impact of eCO₂ was observed on various biomass measures, including aboveground biomass (20.5%), belowground biomass (42.6%), soil microbial biomass (10.4%), fungal biomass (11.0%), and bacterial biomass (9.2%). It was found that eCO₂ levels above 200 ppm had a greater impact on plant biomass compared to concentrations at or below 200 ppm. On the other hand, studies showed that positive effects on microbial biomass were more prominent at lower eCO₂ levels (≤200 ppm) than at higher levels (>200 ppm), which could be explained by soil nitrogen limitations. Importantly, our results indicated that aboveground biomass was controlled more by climatic and experimental conditions, while soil properties strongly impacted the stimulation of belowground and microbial biomass.

Discussion

Our results provided evidence of the eCO₂ fertilization effect across various ecosystem types, experimental methods, and climates, and provided a quantitative estimate of plant and soil microbial biomass sensitivity to eCO₂. The results obtained in this study suggest that ecosystem models should consider climatic and edaphic factors to more accurately predict the effects of global climate change and their impact on ecosystem functions.

Effects of climate change on forest plantation productivity in Chile

Forest plantations in Chile occupy more than 2.2 million ha and are responsible for 2.1% of the GDP of the country's economy. The ability to accurately predictions of plantations productivity under current and future climate has an impact can enhance on forest management and industrial wood production. The use of process-based models to predict forest growth has been instrumental in improving the understanding and quantifying the effects of climate variability, climate change, and the impact of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and management practices on forest growth. This study uses the 3-PG model to predict future forest productivity Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus radiata. The study integrates climate data from global circulation models used in CMIP5 for scenarios RCP26 and RCP85, digital soil maps for physical and chemical variables. Temporal and spatial tree growth inventories were used to compare with the 3-PG predictions. The results indicated that forest productivity is predicted to potentially increase stand volume (SV) over the next 50 years by 26% and 24% for the RCP26 scenario and between 73% and 62% for the RCP85 scenario for E. globulus and P. radiata, respectively. The predicted increases can be explained by a combination of higher level of atmospheric CO₂ , air temperatures closer to optimum than current, and increases in tree water use efficiency. If the effect of CO₂ is not considered, the predicted differences of SV for 2070 are 16% and 14% for the RCP26 scenario and 22% and 14% for RCP85 for the two species. While shifts in climate and increasing CO₂ are likely to benefit promote higher productivity, other factors such as lack insufficient availability of soil nutrients, events such as increasing frequency and duration of droughts, longer periods of extreme temperatures, competing vegetation, and occurrence of new pests and diseases may compromise these potential gains.

Emergence of the physiological effects of elevated CO2 on land-atmosphere exchange of carbon and water

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂ ) influences the carbon assimilation rate and stomatal conductance of plants, thereby affecting the global cycles of carbon and water. Yet, the detection of these physiological effects of eCO₂ in observational data remains challenging, because natural variations and confounding factors (e.g., warming) can overshadow the eCO₂ effects in observational data of real-world ecosystems. In this study, we aim at developing a method to detect the emergence of the physiological CO₂ effects on various variables related to carbon and water fluxes. We mimic the observational setting in ecosystems using a comprehensive process-based land surface model QUINCY to simulate the leaf-level effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and their century-long propagation through the terrestrial carbon and water cycles across different climate regimes and biomes. We then develop a statistical method based on the signal-to-noise ratio to detect the emergence of the eCO₂ effects. The eCO₂ effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) emerges at relatively low CO₂ increase (∆[CO₂ ] ~ 20 ppm) where the leaf area index is relatively high. Compared to GPP, the eCO₂ effect causing reduced transpiration water flux (normalized to leaf area) emerges only at relatively high CO₂ increase (∆[CO₂ ] >> 40 ppm), due to the high sensitivity to climate variability and thus lower signal-to-noise ratio. In general, the response to eCO₂ is detectable earlier for variables related to the carbon cycle than the water cycle, when plant productivity is not limited by climatic constraints, and stronger in forest-dominated rather than in grass-dominated ecosystems. Our results provide a step toward when and where we expect to detect physiological CO₂ effects in in-situ flux measurements, how to detect them and encourage future efforts to improve the understanding and quantification of these effects in observations of terrestrial carbon and water dynamics.

Atmospheric temperature and humidity demonstrated strong correlation with productivity in tropical moist deciduous forests

Tropical forests sequester six times higher carbon than that released by humans annually into the atmosphere. These biodiversity-rich tropical forests have high net primary productivity (NPP), which differs among constituent plant communities. Tropical moist deciduous forests occupy 179,335 km² of India's geographical area and constitute 44% of the country's total protected area (PA) forests. The productivity of these forests has neither been estimated specifically nor precisely. We measured the annual NPP of three predominant distinct community types, viz., mixed (DM), sal (SM), and teak (TP), in a tropical moist deciduous forest in northern India. The NPP was estimated from tree biomass data collected from nine long-term ecological research (LTER) plots of 1 ha each representing the above three community types. The estimated annual NPP were 10.28, 6.25, and 9.79 Mg ha^-1 year^-1 in DM; 8.93, 7.09, and 10.59 Mg ha^-1 year^-1 in SM; and 14.57, 7.14, and 13.56 Mg ha^-1 year^-1 in TP for the years 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. The NPP was correlated with tree density, height and DBH, species richness, diversity, microclimatic and edaphic variables, and leaf area index (LAI) using principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). Air temperature and humidity were strongly related to NPP in all the community types, while "complementarity" and "selection effects" contributed to the NPP in both the sal and mixed forest communities with equal importance, and the NPP in teak plantation ould point to "dominance effect."

Exploration of the Implementation of Carbon Neutralization in the Field of Natural Resources under the Background of Sustainable Development-An Overview

On 15 March 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out that "achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a broad and profound economic and social systemic change" and called for "putting energy and resources conservation in the first place". Natural resources are the material basis, space carrier and energy source of high-quality development. The source of carbon emissions is resource utilization, and carbon reduction and removal also depend on resources. The improvement of carbon sink capacity is inseparable from natural resources. To achieve the goal of "double carbon", it is necessary to consolidate the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem, as well as enhancing its carbon sink increment. Among natural resources, forest carbon sinks, soil carbon sinks and karst carbon sinks have significant emission reduction potential and cost advantages, representing important means to deal with climate change. This paper reviews the relevant research results at home and abroad, summarizes the carbon sink estimation, carbon sink potential, carbon sink influencing factors, ecological compensation mechanism and other aspects, analyzes the path selection of establishing carbon sink green development, and puts forward corresponding policies and suggestions, providing a theoretical reference for the achievement of the carbon neutrality goal in the field of natural resources in China.

The effect of carbon fertilization on naturally regenerated and planted US forests

Over the last half century in the United States, the per-hectare volume of wood in trees has increased, but it is not clear whether this increase has been driven by forest management, forest recovery from past land uses, such as agriculture, or other environmental factors such as elevated carbon dioxide, nitrogen deposition, or climate change. This paper uses empirical analysis to estimate the effect of elevated carbon dioxide on aboveground wood volume in temperate forests of the United States. To accomplish this, we employ matching techniques that allow us to disentangle the effects of elevated carbon dioxide from other environmental factors affecting wood volume and to estimate the effects separately for planted and natural stands. We show that elevated carbon dioxide has had a strong and consistently positive effect on wood volume while other environmental factors yielded a mix of both positive and negative effects. This study, by enabling a better understanding of how elevated carbon dioxide and other anthropogenic factors are influencing forest stocks, can help policymakers and other stakeholders better account for the role of forests in Nationally Determined Contributions and global mitigation pathways to achieve a 1.5 degree Celsius target.

The CO2 fertilisation effect in forests remains controversial. Here, the authors disentangle the effect of CO2 on forest wood volume from other environmental factors, showing that elevated CO2 had a positive effect on wood volume in planted and natural US temperate forests.

Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Quantifying climate change effects on future forest biomass availability using yield tables improved by mechanistic scaling

Forests and wood products play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies and the transition from a fossil-based economy to a circular bioeconomy. Accurate estimates of future forest productivity are crucial to predict the carbon sequestration and wood provision potential of forests. Since long, forest managers have used empirical yield tables as a cost-effective and reliable way to predict forest growth. However, recent climate change-induced growth shifts raised doubts about the long-term validity of these yield tables. In this study, we propose a methodology to improve available yield tables of 11 tree species in the Netherlands and Flanders, Belgium. The methodology uses scaling functions derived from climate-sensitive process-based modelling (PBM) that reflect state-of-the-art projections of future growth trends. Combining PBM and stand information from the empirical yield tables for the region of Flanders, we found that for the period 1987-2016 stand productivity has on average increased by 13% compared to 1961-1990. Furthermore, simulations indicate that this positive growth trend is most likely to persist in the coming decades, for all considered species, climate or site conditions. Nonetheless, results showed that local site variability is equally important to consider as the in- or exclusion of the CO₂ fertilization effect or different climate projections, when assessing the magnitude of forests' response to climate change. Our projections suggest that incorporating these climate change-related productivity changes lead to a 7% increase in standing stock and a 22% increase in sustainably potentially harvestable woody biomass by 2050. The proposed methodology and resulting estimates of climate-sensitive projections of future woody biomass stocks will facilitate the further incorporation of forests and their products in global and regional strategies for the transition to a climate-smart circular bioeconomy.

The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions

Energy consumption dominates annual CO2 emissions in China. It is essential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption to reach national carbon neutrality by 2060, while the role of terrestrial carbon sequestration in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions cannot be underestimated. Natural climate solutions (NCS), including improvements in terrestrial carbon sequestration, represent readily deployable options to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, the extent to which China's terrestrial carbon sequestration in the future, especially when target-oriented managements (TOMs) are implemented, can help to mitigate energy-related CO2 emissions is far from certain. By synthesizing available findings and using several parameter-sparse empirical models that have been calibrated and/or fitted against contemporary measurements, we assessed China's terrestrial carbon sequestration over 2010-2060 and its contribution to offsetting national energy-related CO2 emissions. We show that terrestrial C sequestration in China will increase from 0.375 ± 0.056 (mean ± standard deviation) Pg C yr-1 in the 2010s to 0.458 ± 0.100 Pg C yr-1 under RCP2.6 and 0.493 ± 0.108 Pg C yr-1 under the RCP4.5 scenario in the 2050s, when TOMs are implemented. The majority of carbon sequestration comes from forest, accounting for 67.8-71.4% of the total amount. China's terrestrial ecosystems can offset 12.2-15.0% and 13.4-17.8% of energy-related peak CO2 emissions in 2030 and 2060, respectively. The implementation of TOMs contributes 11.9% of the overall terrestrial carbon sequestration in the 2020s and 23.7% in the 2050s. The most likely strategy to maximize future NCS effectiveness is a full implementation of all applicable cost-effective NCS pathways in China. Our findings highlight the role of terrestrial carbon sequestration in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions and put forward future needs in the context of carbon neutrality.

Future Projection of CO2 Absorption and N2O Emissions of the South Korean Forests under Climate Change Scenarios: Toward Net-Zero CO2 Emissions by 2050 and Beyond

Forests mitigate climate change by absorbing CO2. However, N2O emissions in forests, which has 298 times larger global warming potential than CO2, can diminish the climate mitigation role of forests. Thus, it is crucial to project not only CO2 absorption but also N2O emissions in forests to provide a scientific basis for the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement goal. This study used a biogeochemical model, called FBD-CAN, to project CO2 absorption and N2O emissions of South Korean forests from 2021 to 2080 under three climate scenarios, including the current climate, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and RCP 8.5. From 2021 to 2080, CO2 absorption decreased from 5.0 to 1.4 Mg CO2 ha—1 year—1 under the current climate with the aging of forests, while N2O emissions increased from 0.25 to 0.33 Mg CO2 eq. ha—1 year—1. Climate change accelerated the decreasing trend in CO2 absorption and the increasing trend in N2O emissions. The subalpine region had a faster decreasing trend in CO2 absorption than the central and southern regions due to its older stand age. These findings provide scientific references for future greenhouse gas reduction plans and broaden our knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the climate mitigation role of forests.

Trend Changes of the Vegetation Activity in Northeastern East Asia and the Connections with Extreme Climate Indices

In the context of global warming, vegetation activity in northeastern East Asia (40–45°N, 105–130°E) (NEA) shows a significant growth trend on a multidecadal scale, but how vegetation changes on a decadal scale is unclear. In this study, we find a significant trend of vegetation greening in northeastern East Asia during 1982–1998 and a slowdown in the greening trend during 1998–2014. Trend analysis of the extreme climate indices reveals that the trends of precipitation-related extreme climate indices are similar to those of vegetation change, and further correlation analysis reveals that precipitation-related extreme climate indices have a strong positive correlation with the NDVI. The results indicate that the vegetation in northeastern East Asia is more sensitive to precipitation changes, especially extreme precipitation, compared with the temperature and related extreme indices. Furthermore, the analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes suggests a role of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) in the trend changes of precipitation-related extreme indices. The strengthening of NPSH before 1998 enhances the moisture transport to the NEA, providing abundant water vapor favorable for extreme precipitation events, while after 1998, the NPSH trend is much weakened, corresponding to a decrease in the moisture transport trend.

Climate Drivers Contribute in Vegetation Greening Stalls of Arid Xinjiang, China: An Atmospheric Water Drying Effect

Xinjiang, an arid region of China, has experienced a substantial warming–wetting trend over the past five decades. However, climate change has affected vegetation growth/greening in arid Central Asia in unexpected ways due to complex ecological effects. We found a significant greening trend (consistent increase in the normalized difference vegetation index or NDVI) from 1982 to 1996, during the growing season; however, the NDVI consequently decreased and plateaued from 1997 to 2015, especially in naturally vegetated regions. Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical driver of vegetation growth, is a direct measure of atmospheric aridity, and has increased sharply in recent decades. A partial correlation analysis indicated a significant relationship between growing season NDVI and VPD from 1997 to 2015. This implies that decreased VPD corresponds to increasing NDVI, and increasing VPD corresponds to a decrease and plateauing in the NDVI trend. Using the partial derivative equation method, our results suggest that the trend in growing season NDVI was affected primarily by increasing VPD (contributing 87.57%) from 1997 to 2015, especially in the grassland and desert biomes. Rising temperatures lead to a greater VPD, resulting in exacerbated evaporative water loss. Soil drought and atmospheric aridity limit plant stomatal conductance and could effectively lead to a decrease in the greening trend and increased vegetation mortality in arid Xinjiang. Our results emphasize the importance of VPD as a limiting factor of greening trends in arid regions. The influence of VPD on vegetation growth should be considered when evaluating arid ecosystem functioning under global warming.

Spatial Scale Effect and Correction of Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation Using Remote Sensing

Forest biomass is critically important for forest dynamics in the carbon cycle. However, large-scale AGB mapping applications from remote sensing data still carry large uncertainty. In this study, an AGB estimation model was first established with three different remote sensing datasets of GF-2, Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8. Next, the optimal scale estimation result was considered as a reference AGB to obtain the relative true AGB distribution at different scales based on the law of conservation of mass, and the error of the scale effect of AGB estimation at various spatial resolutions was analyzed. Then, the information entropy of land use type was calculated to identify the heterogeneity of pixels. Finally, a scale conversion method for the entropy-weighted index was developed to correct the scale error of the estimated AGB results from coarse-resolution remote sensing images. The results showed that the random forest model had better prediction accuracy for GF-2 (4 m), Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Landsat-8 (30 m) AGB mapping. The determination coefficient between predicted and measured AGB was 0.5711, 0.4819 and 0.4321, respectively. Compared to uncorrected AGB, R2 between scale-corrected results and relative true AGB increased from 0.6226 to 0.6725 for Sentinel-2, and increased from 0.5910 to 0.6704 for Landsat-8. The scale error was effectively corrected. This study can provide a reference for forest AGB estimation and scale error reduction for AGB production upscaling with consideration of the spatial heterogeneity of the forest surface.

Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks

Considerable uncertainty and debate exist in projecting the future capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO₂. Here we estimate spatially explicit patterns of biomass loss by tree mortality (LOSS) from largely unmanaged forest plots to constrain projected (2015–2099) net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net carbon sink in six dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) across continents. This approach relies on a strong relationship among LOSS, NPP, and HR at continental or biome scales. The DGVMs overestimated historical LOSS, particularly in tropical regions and eastern North America by as much as 5 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹. The modeled spread of DGVM-projected NPP and HR uncertainties was substantially reduced in tropical regions after incorporating the field-based mortality constraint. The observation-constrained models show a decrease in the tropical forest carbon sink by the end of the century, particularly across South America (from 2 to 1.4 PgC y⁻¹), and an increase in the sink in North America (from 0.8 to 1.1 PgC y⁻¹). These results highlight the feasibility of using forest demographic data to empirically constrain forest carbon sink projections and the potential overestimation of projected tropical forest carbon sinks.

Here the authors use broad-scale tree mortality data to estimate biomass loss, constraining uncertainty of projected forest net primary productivity in 6 models, finding weaker tropical forest carbon sinks with climate change.

Soil water stress overrides the benefit of water-use efficiency from rising CO2 and temperature in a cold semi-arid poplar plantation

The counteractive effect of atmospheric CO₂ (c_a ) enrichment and drought stress on tree growth results in great uncertainty in the growth patterns of forest plantations in cold semi-arid regions. We analysed tree ring chronologies and carbon isotopes in Populus simonii plantations in cold semi-arid areas in northern China over the past four decades. We hypothesized that the hydraulic stress from drought would override the stimulating effect of increasing c_a and temperature (T) on stem growth (basal area increment [BAI]). We found the stimulating effect of rising c_a and T on the growth, indicated by continuous increase of intrinsic water-use efficiency in all stands and a positive correlation between T and BAI. However, these effects failed to alleviate the negative impacts of drought on tree growth. Concurrent acceleration of BAI reversed during the intensive drought episodes. Water stress resulted from inaccessibility of roots to deep soil water rather than from lack of precipitation, suggested by the decoupling of BAI from precipitation and vapour pressure deficit. Local soil water limitation might also cause greater stomatal regulation in declining trees, indicated by lower intercellular CO₂ concentration. Thus, site-specific soil moisture conditions growth sensitivity to global warming resulting in site-specific decline episodes in drought-prone areas.

The stimulatory effect of elevated CO2 on soil respiration is unaffected by N addition

Global atmospheric CO₂ keeps rising and brings about significant effects on ecosystem carbon (C) cycling by altering C processes in soils. Soil C responses to elevated CO₂ are highly uncertain, and how elevated CO₂ interacts with other factors, such as nitrogen (N) availability, to influence soil C flux comprises an important source of this uncertainty, especially for those under-studied ecosystems. By conducting a manipulated CO₂ concentration and N availability experiment on typical alpine grassland (4600 m asl), we combined the five-year in-situ measurement of soil respiration (SR) with an incubation experiment of microbial metabolic efficiency in the lab to explore the response of SR to elevated CO₂ and N availability. The results showed that elevated CO₂ at ambient N conditions and enriched N equally stimulated SR during the experimental period, whereas N supply had no significant effect. Elevated CO₂ enhanced soil dissolved organic C and enzyme activity, while had marginal effects on microbial biomass and C use efficiency (CUE). Strengthened microbial activity dominated SR stimulation under elevated CO₂. Enriched N boosted enzyme activity and microbial CUE. N availability played divergent roles in mediating SR. The negliable regulation of N supply on elevated CO₂ effects on SR was the offset consequences of the negative impacts of enhanced CUE and the positive contribution of heightened enzyme activity. Our findings suggest that rising CO₂ would accelerate soil C cycling of the alpine grassland under various N regimes by stimulating microbial activity instead of lowering microbial metabolic efficiency. Such results are crucial for understanding the role of alpine ecosystems in the global C cycle.

Predicting the Potential Suitable Climate for Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) Cultivation in India under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model

Climate change and climate variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. Early awareness of the future climate of the current cultivation areas for a perennial tree crop like coconut is needed for its adaptation and sustainable cultivation in vulnerable areas. We analyzed coconut's vulnerability to climate change in India, based on climate projections for the 2050s and the 2070s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. Based on the current cultivation regions and climate change predictions from seven ensembles of Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for coconut cultivation using the MaxEnt model. Bioclimatic variables Bio 4 (temperature seasonality, 34.4%) and Bio 7 (temperature annual range, 28.7%) together contribute 63.1%, which along with Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality, 8.6%) determined 71.7% of the climate suitability for coconuts in India. The model projected that some current coconut cultivation producing areas will become unsuitable (plains of South interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in genotypic or agronomic management (east coast and the south interior plains), and yet in others, the climatic suitability for growing coconut will increase (west coast). The findings suggest the need for adaptation strategies so as to ensure sustainable cultivation of coconut at least in presently cultivated areas.

Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of Driving Factors on Vegetation Cover Change in China’s 32 Major Cities

After 2000, China’s vegetation underwent great changes associated with climate change and urbanization. Although many studies have been conducted to quantify the contributions of climate and human activities to vegetation, few studies have quantitatively examined the comprehensive contributions of climate, urbanization, and CO2 to vegetation in China’s 32 major cities. In this study, using Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) fractional vegetation cover (FVC) between 2001 and 2018, we investigated the trend of FVC in China’s 32 major cities and quantified the effects of CO2, urbanization, and climate by using generalized linear models (GLMs). We found the following: (1) From 2001 to 2018, the FVC in China generally illustrated an increasing trend, although it decreased in 23 and 21 cities in the core area and expansion area, respectively. (2) Night light data showed that the urban expansion increased to varying degrees, with an average increasing ratio of approximately 168%. The artificial surface area increased significantly, mainly from cropland, forest, grassland, and tundra. (3) Climate factors and CO2 were the major factors that affected FVC change. The average contributions of climate factors, CO2, and urbanization were 40.6%, 39.2%, and 10.6%, respectively. This study enriched the understanding of vegetation cover change and its influencing factors, helped to explain the complex biophysical mechanism between vegetation and environment, and guided sustainable urban development.

Simulating tree growth response to climate change in structurally diverse oak and beech forests

This study aimed to simulate oak and beech forest growth under various scenarios of climate change and to evaluate how the forest response depends on site properties and particularly on stand characteristics using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. First, this model was evaluated on a wide range of site conditions. We used data from 36 long-term forest monitoring plots to initialize, calibrate, and evaluate HETEROFOR. This evaluation showed that HETEROFOR predicts individual tree radial growth and height increment reasonably well under different growing conditions when evaluated on independent sites. In our simulations under constant CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]_cst) for the 2071-2100 period, climate change induced a moderate net primary production (NPP) gain in continental and mountainous zones and no change in the oceanic zone. The NPP changes were negatively affected by air temperature during the vegetation period and by the annual rainfall decrease. To a lower extent, they were influenced by soil extractable water reserve and stand characteristics. These NPP changes were positively affected by longer vegetation periods and negatively by drought for beech and larger autotrophic respiration costs for oak. For both species, the NPP gain was much larger with rising CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]_var) mainly due to the CO₂ fertilisation effect. Even if the species composition and structure had a limited influence on the forest response to climate change, they explained a large part of the NPP variability (44% and 34% for [CO₂]_cst and [CO₂]_var, respectively) compared to the climate change scenario (5% and 29%) and the inter-annual climate variability (20% and 16%). This gives the forester the possibility to act on the productivity of broadleaved forests and prepare them for possible adverse effects of climate change by reinforcing their resilience.

Foliar sieve elements: Nexus of the leaf

In this review, a central position of foliar sieve elements in linking leaf structure and function is explored. Results from studies involving plants grown under, and acclimated to, different growth regimes are used to identify significant, linear relationships between features of minor vein sieve elements and those of 1) leaf photosynthetic capacity that drives sugar synthesis, 2) overall leaf structure that serves as the platform for sugar production, 3) phloem components that facilitate the loading of sugars (companion & phloem parenchyma cells), and 4) the tracheary elements that import water to support photosynthesis (and stomatal opening) as well as mass flow of sugars out of the leaf. Despite comprising only a small fraction of physical space within the leaf, sieve elements represent a hub through which multiple functions of the leaf intersect. As the conduits for export of energy-rich carbohydrates, essential mineral nutrients, and information carriers, sieve elements play a central role in fueling and orchestrating development and function of the plant as well as, by extension, of natural and human communities that depend on plants as producers and partners in the global carbon cycle.

Limited plasticity of anatomical and hydraulic traits in aspen trees under elevated CO2 and seasonal drought

The timing of abiotic stress elicitors on wood formation largely affects xylem traits that determine xylem efficiency and vulnerability. Nonetheless, seasonal variability of elevated CO2 (eCO2) effects on tree functioning under drought remains largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, 1-year-old aspen (Populus tremula L.) trees were grown under ambient (±445 ppm) and elevated (±700 ppm) CO2 and exposed to an early (spring/summer 2019) or late (summer/autumn 2018) season drought event. Stomatal conductance and stem shrinkage were monitored in vivo as xylem water potential decreased. Additional trees were harvested for characterization of wood anatomical traits and to determine vulnerability and desorption curves via bench dehydration. The abundance of narrow vessels decreased under eCO2 only during the early season. At this time, xylem vulnerability to embolism formation and hydraulic capacitance during severe drought increased under eCO2. Contrastingly, stomatal closure was delayed during the late season, while hydraulic vulnerability and capacitance remained unaffected under eCO2. Independently of the CO2 treatment, elastic, and inelastic water pools depleted simultaneously after 50% of complete stomatal closure. Our results suggest that the effect of eCO2 on drought physiology and wood traits are small and variable during the growing season and question a sequential capacitive water release from elastic and inelastic pools as drought proceeds.

Future climate impacts on forest growth and implications for carbon sequestration through reforestation in southeast Australia

Reforestation is identified as one of the key nature-based solutions to deliver carbon dioxide removal, which will be required to achieve the net zero ambition of the Paris Agreement. However, the potential for sequestration through reforestation is uncertain because climate change is expected to affect the drivers of forest growth. This study used the process-based 3-PG model to investigate the effects of climate change on development of above-ground biomass (AGB), as an indicator of forest growth, in regenerating native forests in southeast Australia. We investigated how changing climate affects AGB, by combining historical data and future climate projections based on 25 global climate models (GCMs) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We found that the ensemble means of 25 GCMs indicated an increase in temperature with large variations in projected rainfall. When these changes were applied in 3-PG, we found an increase in the simulated AGB by as much as 25% under a moderate emission scenario. This estimate rose to 51% under a high emission scenario by the end of the 21st century across nine selected sites in southeast Australia. However, when CO₂ response was excluded, we found a large decrease in AGB at the nine sites. Our modelling results showed that the modelled response to elevated atmospheric CO₂ (the CO₂ fertilization effect) was largely responsible for the simulated increase of AGB (%). We found that the estimates of future changes in the AGB were subject to uncertainties originating from climate projections, future emission scenarios, and the assumed response to CO₂ fertilization. Such modelling simulation improves understanding of possible climate change impacts on forest growth and the inherent uncertainties in estimating mitigation potential through reforestation, with implications for climate policy in Australia.

Contrasting responses of woody and grassland ecosystems to increased CO2 as water supply varies

Experiments show that elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂) often enhances plant photosynthesis and productivity, yet this effect varies substantially and may be climate sensitive. Understanding if, where and how water supply regulates CO₂ enhancement is critical for projecting terrestrial responses to increasing atmospheric CO₂ and climate change. Here, using data from 14 long-term ecosystem-scale CO₂ experiments, we show that the eCO₂ enhancement of annual aboveground net primary productivity is sensitive to annual precipitation and that this sensitivity differs between woody and grassland ecosystems. During wetter years, CO₂ enhancement increases in woody ecosystems but declines in grass-dominated systems. Consistent with this difference, woody ecosystems can increase leaf area index in wetter years more effectively under eCO₂ than can grassland ecosystems. Overall, and across different precipitation regimes, woody systems had markedly stronger CO₂ enhancement (24%) than grasslands (13%). We developed an empirical relationship to quantify aboveground net primary productivity enhancement on the basis of changes in leaf area index, providing a new approach for evaluating eCO₂ impacts on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Climate change impacts plant carbon balance, increasing mean future carbon use efficiency but decreasing total forest extent at dry range edges

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) represents how efficient a plant is at translating carbon gains through gross primary productivity (GPP) into net primary productivity (NPP) after respiratory costs (R_a ). CUE varies across space with climate and species composition, but how CUE will respond to climate change is largely unknown due to uncertainty in R_a at novel high temperatures. We use a plant physiological model validated against global CUE observations and LIDAR vegetation canopy height data and find that model-predicted decreases in CUE are diagnostic of transitions from forests to shrubland at dry range edges. Under future climate scenarios, we show mean growing season CUE increases in core forested areas, but forest extent decreases at dry range edges, with substantial uncertainty in absolute CUE due to uncertainty in R_a . Our results highlight that future forest resilience is nuanced and controlled by multiple competing mechanisms.

Hotter and drier climate made the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa region a shrubbier landscape

A shift to higher temperatures has left the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa (MENA) region more vulnerable to drought and land degradation. We used MODIS LAI (leaf area index) and GPP (gross primary production) deficits, the differences between actual and historical-maximum values, to describe vegetation structural and functional changes and consequential landcover change in response to changing climate conditions during 2001-2019 in the area (20° W-45° E, 20° N-45° N). We found that 1) the vegetation responses varied significantly among eight landcover types with the decreasing importance: forests, savannas, a mosaic of cropland and natural vegetation (CNV), croplands, permanent wetlands, urban land, grasslands, and shrublands, each with distinctive yet overlapping signatures over the ranges of the climate conditions considered. 2) Forests, occupying the coolest and wettest niche, showed the strongest response to severe drought with a lag of 1-3 years and a legacy effect for 10 years. Shrubs, occupying the hottest and driest niche, were the most resilient under a hotter and drier climate. 3) The total areas of savannas and CNV increased by 394,994 and 404,592 km², respectively, while that of forests decreased by 33,091 km². Shrublands extended by 287,134 km² while grasslands and croplands retreated by 490,644 and 225,263 km². The area of wetlands increased by 49,192 km², and that of urban land increased by 39,570 km². A total of 57,649 km² of barren land became vegetated over the years. Along with higher temperature and more extended period of drought, MENA has evolved towards a shrubbier landscape.

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in Airport Economic Zones in China

With the rapid development of the aviation industry, many negative effects on the local environment have been reported. This study examined the land use and land cover (LULC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) of airport economic zones (AEZs) in China and assessed the changes in LULC and ESV. The results indicate that LULC changed significantly from 1990 to 2015, characterized by the increase in construction land (increase rate, 68.53%) and water bodies (increase rate, 2.32%) and the decrease in cropland (decrease rate, 4.28%), forest (decrease rate, 0.73%), grassland (decrease rate, 4.64%) and unused land (decrease rate, 6.36%). The ESV of AEZs in 1990 and 2015 was RMB 3454 and 3483 million, respectively, with an overall ESV change of RMB 29 million. The ESV of AEZs is characterized by high value in the coastal area of China. From 1990 to 2015, AEZs with a high ESV were located in Inner Mongolia, while those with a high decrease in ESV were located in the southeastern coastal area. From 1990 to 2000, the AEZs with a high increase in ESV were located in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai and the AEZs with decreased ESV were mostly located in central and south China. However, from 2000 to 2010, AEZs with high and low increases in ESV were located in central China and the south coastal area of China, respectively. From 2010 to 2015, AEZs with a high decrease in ESV were located in southeast China.

Increasing aridity will not offset CO2 fertilization in fast-growing eucalypts with access to deep soil water

Rising atmospheric [CO₂ ] (C_a ) generally enhances tree growth if nutrients are not limiting. However, reduced water availability and elevated evaporative demand may offset such fertilization. Trees with access to deep soil water may be able to mitigate such stresses and respond more positively to C_a . Here, we sought to evaluate how increased vapor pressure deficit and reduced precipitation are likely to modify the impact of elevated C_a (eC_a ) on tree productivity in an Australian Eucalyptus saligna Sm. plantation with access to deep soil water. We parameterized a forest growth simulation model (GOTILWA+) using data from two field experiments on E. saligna: a 2-year whole-tree chamber experiment with factorial C_a (ambient =380, elevated =620 μmol mol^-1 ) and watering treatments, and a 10-year stand-scale irrigation experiment. Model evaluation showed that GOTILWA+ can capture the responses of canopy C uptake to (1) rising vapor pressure deficit (D) under both C_a treatments; (2) alterations in tree water uptake from shallow and deep soil layers during soil dry-down; and (3) the impact of irrigation on tree growth. Simulations suggest that increasing C_a up to 700 μmol mol^-1 alone would result in a 33% increase in annual gross primary production (GPP) and a 62% increase in biomass over 10 years. However, a combined 48% increase in D and a 20% reduction in precipitation would halve these values. Our simulations identify high D conditions as a key limiting factor for GPP. They also suggest that rising C_a will compensate for increasing aridity limitations in E. saligna trees with access to deep soil water under non-nutrient limiting conditions, thereby reducing the negative impacts of global warming upon this eucalypt species. Simulation models not accounting for water sources available to deep-rooting trees are likely to overestimate aridity impacts on forest productivity and C stocks.

Assessing model performance via the most limiting environmental driver in two differently stressed pine stands

Climate change will impact forest productivity worldwide. Forecasting the magnitude of such impact, with multiple environmental stressors changing simultaneously, is only possible with the help of process-based models. In order to assess their performance, such models require careful evaluation against measurements. However, direct comparison of model outputs against observational data is often not reliable, as models may provide the right answers due to the wrong reasons. This would severely hinder forecasting abilities under unprecedented climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology for model assessment, which supplements the traditional output-to-observation model validation. It evaluates model performance through its ability to reproduce observed seasonal changes of the most limiting environmental driver (MLED) for a given process, here daily gross primary productivity (GPP). We analyzed seasonal changes of the MLED for GPP in two contrasting pine forests, the Mediterranean Pinus halepensis Mill. Yatir (Israel) and the boreal Pinus sylvestris L. Hyytiälä (Finland) from three years of eddy-covariance flux data. Then, we simulated the same period with a state-of-the-art process-based simulation model (LandscapeDNDC). Finally, we assessed if the model was able to reproduce both GPP observations and MLED seasonality. We found that the model reproduced the seasonality of GPP in both stands, but it was slightly overestimated without site-specific fine-tuning. Interestingly, although LandscapeDNDC properly captured the main MLED in Hyytiälä (temperature) and in Yatir (soil water availability), it failed to reproduce high-temperature and high-vapor pressure limitations of GPP in Yatir during spring and summer. We deduced that the most likely reason for this divergence is an incomplete description of stomatal behavior. In summary, this study validates the MLED approach as a model evaluation tool, and opens up new possibilities for model improvement.

Intrinsic non-stomatal resilience to drought of the photosynthetic apparatus in Coffea spp. is strengthened by elevated air [CO2]

Growing water restrictions associated with climate changes constitute daunting challenges to crop performance. This study unveils the impacts of moderate (MWD) or severe (SWD) water deficit, and their interaction with air [CO2], on the photosynthetic apparatus of Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner cv. Conilon Clone 153 (CL153) and Coffea arabica L. cv. Icatu. Seven year-old potted plants grown under 380 (aCO2) or 700 μl l -1 (eCO2) [CO2] gradually reached predawn water potentials between -1.6 and -2.1 MPa (MWD), and below -3.5 MPa (SWD). Under drought, stomata closure was chiefly related to abscisic acid (ABA) rise. Increasing drought severity progressively affected gas exchange and fluorescence parameters in both genotypes, with non-stomatal limitations becoming gradually dominating, especially regarding the photochemical and biochemical components of CL153 SWD plants. In contrast, Icatu plants were highly tolerant to SWD, with minor, if any, negative impacts on the potential photosynthetic functioning and components (e.g., Amax, Fv/Fm, electron carriers, photosystems (PSs) and ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase oxygenase (RuBisCO) activities). Besides, drought-stressed Icatu plants displayed increased abundance of a large set of proteins associated with the photosynthetic apparatus (PSs, light-harvesting complexes, cyclic electron flow, RuBisCO activase) regardless of [CO2]. Single eCO2 did not promote stomatal and photosynthetic down-regulation in both genotypes. Instead, eCO2 increased photosynthetic performance, moderately reinforced photochemical (PSs activity, electron carriers) and biochemical (RuBisCO, ribulose-5-phosphate kinase) components, whereas photoprotective mechanisms and protein abundance remained mostly unaffected. In both genotypes, under MWD, eCO2 superimposition delayed stress severity and promoted photosynthetic functioning with lower energy dissipation and PSII impacts, whereas stomatal closure was decoupled from increases in ABA. In SWD plants, most impacts on the photosynthetic performance were reduced by eCO2, especially in the moderately drought affected CL153 genotype, although maintaining RuBisCO as the most sensitive component, deserving special breeder's attention to improve coffee sustainability under future climate scenarios.

Decadal variability in land carbon sink efficiency

BACKGROUND

The climate mitigation target of limiting the temperature increase below 2 °C above the pre-industrial levels requires the efforts from all countries. Tracking the trajectory of the land carbon sink efficiency is thus crucial to evaluate the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Here, we define the instantaneous land sink efficiency as the ratio of natural land carbon sinks to emissions from fossil fuel and land-use and land-cover change with a value of 1 indicating carbon neutrality to track its temporal dynamics in the past decades.

RESULTS

Land sink efficiency has been decreasing during 1957-1990 because of the increased emissions from fossil fuel. After the effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption diminished (after 1994), the land sink efficiency firstly increased before 2009 and then began to decrease again after 2009. This reversal around 2009 is mostly attributed to changes in land sinks in tropical regions in response to climate variations.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing trend of land sink efficiency in recent years reveals greater challenges in climate change mitigation, and that climate impacts on land carbon sinks must be accurately quantified to assess the effectiveness of regional scale climate mitigation policies.

Rapid responses of root traits and productivity to phosphorus and cation additions in a tropical lowland forest in Amazonia

Soil nutrient availability can strongly affect root traits. In tropical forests, phosphorus (P) is often considered the main limiting nutrient for plants. However, support for the P paradigm is limited, and N and cations might also control tropical forests functioning. We used a large-scale experiment to determine how the factorial addition of nitrogen (N), P and cations affected root productivity and traits related to nutrient acquisition strategies (morphological traits, phosphatase activity, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonisation and nutrient contents) in a primary rainforest growing on low-fertility soils in Central Amazonia after 1 yr of fertilisation. Multiple root traits and productivity were affected. Phosphorus additions increased annual root productivity and root diameter, but decreased root phosphatase activity. Cation additions increased root productivity at certain times of year, also increasing root diameter and mycorrhizal colonisation. P and cation additions increased their element concentrations in root tissues. No responses were detected with N addition. Here we showed that rock-derived nutrients determined root functioning in low-fertility Amazonian soils, demonstrating not only the hypothesised importance of P, but also highlighting the role of cations. The changes in fine root traits and productivity indicated that even slow-growing tropical rainforests can respond rapidly to changes in resource availability.

Short photoperiod attenuates CO2 fertilization effect on shoot biomass in Arabidopsis thaliana

The level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air can affect several traits in plants. Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) can enhance photosynthesis and increase plant productivity, including biomass, although there are inconsistencies regarding the effects of eCO2 on the plant growth response. The compounding effects of ambient environmental conditions such as light intensity, photoperiod, water availability, and soil nutrient composition can affect the extent to which eCO2 enhances plant productivity. This study aimed to investigate the growth response of Arabidopsis thaliana to eCO2 (800 ppm) under short photoperiod (8/16 h, light/dark cycle). Here, we report an attenuated fertilization effect of eCO2 on the shoot biomass of Arabidopsis plants grown under short photoperiod. The biomass of two-, three-, and four-week-old Arabidopsis plants was increased by 10%, 15%, and 28%, respectively, under eCO2 compared to the ambient CO2 (aCO2, 400 ppm) i.e. control. However, the number of rosette leaves, rosette area, and shoot biomass were similar in mature plants under both CO2 conditions, despite 40% higher photosynthesis in eCO2 exposed plants. The levels of chlorophylls and carotenoids were similar in the fully expanded rosette leaves regardless of the level of CO2. In conclusion, CO2 enrichment moderately increased Arabidopsis shoot biomass at the juvenile stage, whereas the eCO2-induced increment in shoot biomass was not apparent in mature plants. A shorter day-length can limit the source-to-sink resource allocation in a plant in age-dependent manner, hence diminishing the eCO2 fertilization effect on the shoot biomass in Arabidopsis plants grown under short photoperiod.

Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2

Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO2 sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO2; and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub-tropics and more water-limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5-1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation-forced warming and contribute to year-round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO2-driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts.

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂ ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂ ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂ ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂ ] (iCO₂ ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂ , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by human activities each year¹, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO₂ (refs. ^2,3). Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) experiments^4-6, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline⁷. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections^8,9. Here we synthesized data from 108 eCO₂ experiments and found that the effect of eCO₂ on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO₂, SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO₂ in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

Time-scale dependent mechanism of atmospheric CO2 concentration drivers of watershed water-energy balance

The elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂), as a key variable linking human activities and climate change, seriously affects the watershed hydrological processes. However, whether and how atmospheric CO₂ influences the watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales have not been revealed. Based on long-term hydrometeorological data, the variation of non-stationary parameter n series in the Choudhury's equation in the mainstream of the Wei River Basin (WRB), the Jing River Basin (JRB) and Beiluo River Basin (BLRB), three typical Loess Plateau regions in China, was examined. Subsequently, the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was applied to explore the impact of CO₂ on watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales. Results indicate that (1) in the context of warming and drying condition, annual n series in the WRB displays a significantly increasing trend, while that in the JRB and BLRB presents non-significantly decreasing trends; (2) the non-stationary n series was divided into 3-, 7-, 18-, exceeding 18-year time scale oscillations and a trend residual. In the WRB and BLRB, the overall variation of n was dominated by the residual, whereas in the JRB it was dominated by the 7-year time scale oscillation; (3) the relationship between CO₂ concentration and n series was significant in the WRB except for 3-year time scale. In the JRB, CO₂ concentration and n series were significantly correlated on the 7- and exceeding 7-year time scales, while in the BLRB, such a significant relationship existed only on the 18- and exceeding 18-year time scales. (4) CO₂-driven temperature rise and vegetation greening elevated the aridity index and evaporation ratio, thus impacting watershed water-energy balance dynamics. This study provided a deeper explanation for the possible impact of CO₂ concentration on the watershed hydrological processes.