The Application of a Decision-Theoretic Model to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Vaporized Nicotine Product Initiation in the United States

Beneficial and Harmful Tobacco-Use Transitions Associated With ENDS in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

ENDS can benefit those who use combustible tobacco if they transition completely to ENDS. ENDS can also result in nicotine addiction among nicotine-naïve people.

METHODS

ENDS-related tobacco-use transitions were assessed among U.S. youth and adults using weighted Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study Waves 4 (2016-2017) and 5 (2018-2019) adult and youth data. A beneficial transition was defined as those who used combustible tobacco and transitioned exclusively to ENDS use or quit with the help of ENDS. A harmful transition was defined as (1) nonusers of any tobacco product who initiated ENDS (with or without combustible tobacco co-use) or (2) those who exclusively used ENDS and then added or transitioned to combustible tobacco use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine modified definitions of beneficial and harmful transitions based on different assumptions. The analyses were conducted between August 2024 and November 2024.

RESULTS

Total sample size (N=31,733) represented ∼256 million people. For those using a combustible tobacco product in Wave 4, 2.1 million (∼4.6%) transitioned to exclusive ENDS use or to ENDS-assisted cessation of a combustible tobacco product (benefit). In addition, 4.6 million (∼%2.2) transitioned from nonuse to ENDS or, among people who use ENDS exclusively in Wave 4, added combustible or transitioned to combustible tobacco use in Wave 5 (harm).

CONCLUSIONS

For every 1 beneficial transition, ENDS use was associated with 2.15 harmful transitions; this ratio ranged from 0.75 to 2.77 in sensitivity analyses. With effective restrictions on ENDS access and marketing for tobacco-naïve people, the population benefits of ENDS could outweigh population harms.

Predicting the long-term effects of electronic cigarette use on population health: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation.

DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SELECTION

Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence.

CONCLUSIONS

A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021

INTRODUCTION

The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the lung injuries outbreak, flavour bans, Tobacco 21 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28 061 adults in waves 4-5 (2017-2019) and 24 584 adults in waves 5-6 (2019-2021), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation and switching products for each period overall and by age group.

RESULTS

Cigarette initiation among adults who never used either product decreased from 2017-2019 to 2019-2021, but ENDS initiation did not significantly change. The persistence of ENDS-only use remained high (75%-80% after 1 year). Cigarette-only use transitions remained similar (88% remaining, 7% to non-current use and 5% to dual or ENDS-only use). In contrast, dual use to ENDS-only transitions increased from 9.5% (95% CI 7.3% to 11.7%) to 20.0% (95% CI 17.4% to 22.6%) per year, decreasing the persistence of dual use. The dual to cigarette-only use transition remained at about 25%. These changes were qualitatively similar across adult age groups, though adults ages 18-24 years exhibited the highest probability of switching from cigarette-only use to dual use and from dual use to ENDS-only use.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of ENDS use among adults remained high in 2019-2021, but a larger fraction of dual users transitioned to ENDS-only use compared with 2017-2019. Because the fraction of cigarette-only users switching to dual use remained low, especially among older adults, the public health implications of this change are minimal.

Cigarette smoking decline among US young adults from 2000 to 2019, in relation to state-level cigarette price and tobacco control expenditure

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of state-level cigarette price and tobacco control expenditure with the large 2000-2019 decline in cigarette smoking among US 18-24 year-olds.

METHODS

Smoking behaviour was assessed in the 24 most populous US states using the 1992-2019 Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey; association with price and expenditure was tested using adjusted logistic regression. States were ranked by inflation-adjusted average price and tobacco control expenditure and grouped into tertiles. State-specific time trends were estimated, with slope changes in 2001/2002 and 2010/2011.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2010, the odds of smoking among US young adults decreased by a third (adjusted OR, AOR 0.68, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.84). By 2019, these odds were one-quarter of their 2000 level (AOR 0.24, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.31). Among states in the lowest tertile of price/expenditure tobacco control activity, initially higher young adult smoking decreased by 13 percentage points from 2010 to 2018-2019, to a prevalence of 5.6% (95% CI 4.5% to 6.8%), equal to that in the highest tobacco-control tertile of states (6.5%, 95% CI 5.2% to 7.8%). Neither state tobacco control spending (AOR 1.0, 95% CI 0.999 to 1.002) nor cigarette price (AOR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.01) were associated with young adult smoking in statistical models. In 2019, seven states had prevalence over 3 SDs higher than the 24-state mean.

CONCLUSION

National programmes may have filled a gap in state-level interventions, helping drive down the social acceptability of cigarette smoking among young adults across all states. Additional interventions are needed to assist high-prevalence states to further reduce smoking.

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

BACKGROUND

Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.

METHODS

SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data.

RESULTS

Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021

Introduction

The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the outbreak of lung injuries related to vaping THC, flavor bans, and the COVID pandemic. We analyzed patterns of initiation, cessation, and transitions between cigarettes, ENDS, and dual use before and after 2019.

Methods

Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28,061 adults in Waves 4-5 (2017-19) and 24,751 adults in Waves 5-6 (2019-21), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation, and switching products for each period overall and by age group.

Results

Cigarette initiation among adults who never used either product decreased from 2017-19 to 2019-21, but ENDS initiation did not significantly change. Persistence of ENDS-only use remained high, with 75-80% still using ENDS only after 1 year. Cigarette-only use transitions remained similar, with about 88% remaining, 7% transitioning to non-current use, and 5% transitioning to dual or ENDS-only use. In contrast, dual use to ENDS-only transitions increased from 9.5% (95%CI: 7.3-11.7%) to 20.1% (95%CI: 17.5-22.7%) per year from 2017-19 to 2019-21, decreasing the persistence of dual use. The dual use to cigarette-only transition remained at about 25%. These changes were qualitatively similar across adult age groups, though adults ages 18-24 years exhibited the highest probability of switching from cigarette-only use to dual use and from dual use to ENDS-only use.

Conclusions

Persistence of ENDS use among adults remained high in 2019-21, but a larger fraction of dual users transitioned to ENDS-only use compared to 2017-19. Because the fraction of cigarette-only users switching to dual use remained low, the public health implications of the increased dual use to ENDS-only transition are minimal.

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs).

METHODS

After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060.

RESULTS

As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

Association between Sexual Violence Victimization and Electronic Vaping Product Use among Adolescents: Findings from a Population-based Study

BACKGROUND

Although studies have investigated the association between sexual violence (SV) victimization and substance use, few studies have examined the association between SV victimization and electronic vaping product (EVP) use among adolescents in the United States. The objective of this study was to examine the cross-sectional association between SV victimization and EVP use among adolescents.

METHODS

Data were pooled from the 2017 and 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Survey. An analytic sample of 28,135 adolescents (51.2% female) was analyzed using binary logistic regression. The outcome variable investigated was EVP use, and the main explanatory variable was SV victimization.

RESULTS

Of the 28,135 adolescents, the prevalence of past 30-day EVP use and SV victimization was 22.7% and 10.8%, respectively. Controlling for other factors, adolescents who experienced SV had 1.52 times higher odds of being EVP users when compared to their counterparts who did not experience SV (AOR = 1.52, p < .001, 95% CI = 1.27-1.82). Other factors associated with EVP use included cyberbullying victimization, symptoms of depression, and current use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana.

CONCLUSIONS

Experiencing SV was associated with EVP use. Future studies that employ longitudinal designs may offer more insight into the mechanisms underlying the association between SV victimization and EVP use. In addition, school-based interventions that focus on sexual violence prevention and reducing substance use among adolescents are warranted.

E-cigarettes and smoking cessation among adolescent smokers

Smokers of any age can reap substantial health benefits from quitting or reducing their smoking. E-cigarettes have been promoted as a potentially promising product for tobacco harm reduction because e-cigarettes deliver nicotine vapor without many of the hazardous chemical combustion byproducts produced by combustible cigarette smoking. However, there remains an ongoing debate on whether the use of e-cigarettes is effective in combustible cigarette smoking cessation or reduction in both adolescents and adults. Our study uses data from the 2015 (baseline) and from the 2017 (follow-up) waves of the Taiwan Adolescent to Adult Longitudinal Study (TAALS), which is a large nationwide representative cohort study of health behaviors among adolescents in Taiwan. We analyzed the data using logistic regression and multivariate regression with a post-stratification weighting procedure. Among the 474 adolescent combustible cigarette users at baseline, the use of e-cigarettes had no association with smoking cessation (aRR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.66, 1.50). Furthermore, the use of e-cigarettes was also not associated with change in combustible cigarette consumption among all adolescent combustible cigarette users at follow-up (Coef. = 0.62, 95% CI =  - 36.85, 38.09). In summary, our findings suggest that e-cigarettes may not aid tobacco control among adolescent smokers. Policy makers should be cautious of the potential harms that e-cigarette may bring to young people when they are developing e-cigarette regulations.

A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products

Markets for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have grown as these products became positioned as harm-reduction alternatives to combusted tobacco products. Herein, we present a public health decision-theoretic framework incorporating different patterns of HTP, NVP, and cigarette use to examine their impacts on population health. Our framework demonstrates that, for individuals who would have otherwise smoked, HTP use may provide public health benefits by enabling cessation or by discouraging smoking initiation and relapse. However, the benefits are reduced if more harmful HTP use replaces less harmful NVP use. HTP use may also negatively impact public health by encouraging smoking by otherwise non-smokers or by encouraging initiation or relapse into smoking. These patterns are directly influenced by industry behavior as well as public policy towards HTPs, NVPs, and cigarettes. While substantial research has been devoted to NVPs, much less is known about HTPs. Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products. While our analysis provides a framework for gaining that information, it also illustrates the complexities in distinguishing key factors.

Understanding heterogeneity among individuals who smoke cigarettes and vape: assessment of biomarkers of exposure and potential harm among subpopulations from the PATH Wave 1 Data

INTRODUCTION

People who both smoke cigarettes and vape are often considered as a homogenous group even though multiple subgroups may exist. We examined biomarkers of exposure (BOE) and biomarkers of potential harm (BOPH) to differentiate between subgroups of people who smoke and vape based on PATH Study Wave 1 (2013-2014) data.

METHODS

We compared people who only smoke cigarettes everyday (Group A, n = 2442) and people who only vape everyday (Group C, n = 169) against people who smoke and vape segmented into subgroups of people who frequently smoke and vape (Group B1, n = 169), frequently smoke and infrequently vape (Group B2, n = 678), frequently vape and infrequently smoke (Group B3, n = 57), and infrequently smoke and vape (Group B4, n = 66). Eighteen BOEs (representing exposure to TSNAs, nicotine, heavy metals, PAHs, and volatile organic compounds) and four BOPHs (representing inflammation and oxidative stress) were compared within the subgroups.

RESULTS

Levels of many BOEs/BOPHs were higher among Group B2 relative to Groups B1, B3, and B4. Compared to Group A, many BOEs were significantly lower in Groups B3 (15/18) and B4 (17/18), and some BOEs were higher among B2 (4/18). Compared to Group C, significantly lower BOEs were observed for Group B4 (2/18).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the levels of BOEs and BOPHs in people who smoke and vape are associated with frequency of cigarette smoking. Our findings indicate that not all people who smoke and vape are the same, and tobacco product use frequency should be considered when categorizing people who smoke and vape.

Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000

BACKGROUND

For smokers not intending to quit, switching to a reduced-risk nicotine product should be healthier than continuing smoking. We estimate the health impact, over the period 2000-2050, had the nicotine pouch ZYN hypothetically been introduced into the US in 2000. ZYN's toxicant profile and method of use is like that for Swedish snus, a product with known health effects much less than smoking.

METHODS

Our modelling approach is similar to others developed for estimating potential effects of new tobacco products. It starts with a simulated cohort of 100,000 individuals in the year 2000 subdivided by age, sex, and smoking status (including years since quitting). They are followed annually accounting for births, net immigrations, deaths and product use changes, with follow-up carried out in the Base Case (ZYN not introduced) and Modified Case (ZYN introduced). Using informed assumptions about initiation, quitting and switching rates, distributions of the population over time are then constructed for each Case, and used to estimate product mortality based on assumptions about the relative risk according to product use.

RESULTS

Whereas in both Base and Modified Cases, the prevalence of any current product use is predicted to decline from about 22% to 10% during follow-up, in the Modified Case about 25% of current users use ZYN by 2050, about a quarter being dual users and the rest ZYN-only users. Over the 50 years, deaths at ages 35-84 from product use among the 100,000 are estimated as 249 less in the Modified than the Base Case, equivalent to about 700,000 less in the whole US. Sensitivity analyses varying individual parameter values confirm the benefits of switching to ZYN, which increase as either the switching rate to ZYN increases or the initiation rate of ZYN relative to smoking increases. Even assuming the reduction in excess mortality risk using ZYN use is 20% of that from smoking rather than the 3.5% assumed in the main analyses, the reduction in product-related deaths would still be 213, or about 600,000 in the US.

CONCLUSIONS

Although such model-based estimates involve uncertainties, the results suggest that introducing ZYN could substantially reduce product-related deaths.

A cost-utility analysis of the impact of electronic nicotine delivery systems on health care costs and outcomes in Canada

INTRODUCTION

We determined the impact of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) on health outcomes and costs in Canada, based on their effect on smoking cessation and smoking initiation rates.

METHODS

We used gender-specific Markov models to estimate lifetime discounted life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and smoking-related health care costs for cohorts of males and females aged 15 to 19 years, in scenarios in which (1) ENDS are available (status quo); (2) ENDS are completely unavailable; and (3) ENDS are available for smoking cessation through health care provider prescription, in addition to currently recognized smoking cessation tools. Analysis was from the perspective of a publicly funded health care system.

RESULTS

Outcomes are expressed per 1000 individuals and based on expected values obtained through a Monte Carlo simulation of 10 000 replications. For males aged 15 to 19 years, life years, QALYs and smoking-related health care costs were 41 553, 35 871 and CAD 79 645 964, respectively, when ENDS were available; 41 568, 35 894 and CAD 79 645 960 when ENDS were unavailable; and 41 570, 35 897 and CAD 79 605 869 when ENDS were available through prescription only. For females, life years, QALYs and smoking-related health care costs were 43 596, 37 416 and CAD 69 242 856, respectively, when ENDS were available; 43 610, 37 438 and CAD 69 085 926 when ENDS were unavailable; and 43 611, 37 438 and CAD 69 076 034 when ENDS were available through prescription only. Thus, situations in which ENDS are unavailable, or available through prescription only are dominant over the status quo.

CONCLUSION

These results show that a policy change whereby ENDS were unavailable to the Canadian population or available through prescription only would likely increase population health and reduce health care costs.

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study

With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

Improving on estimates of the potential relative harm to health from using modern ENDS (vaping) compared to tobacco smoking

BACKGROUND

Although the harm to health from electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) compared to smoked tobacco remains highly uncertain, society and governments still need to know the likely range of the relative harm to inform regulatory policies for ENDS and smoking.

METHODS

We identified biomarkers with specificity of association with different disease groupings e.g., volatile organic compound (VOCs) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and tobacco-specific N´-nitrosamines (TSNAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for all cancers. We conducted a review of recent studies (post January 2017) that compared these biomarkers between people exclusively using ENDS and those exclusively smoking tobacco. The percentage differences in these biomarkers, weighted by study size and adjusted for acrolein from other sources, were used as a proxy for the assumed percentage difference in disease harm between ENDS and smoking. These relative differences were applied to previously modelled estimates of smoking-related health loss (in health-adjusted life-years; HALYs).

RESULTS

The respective relative biomarker levels (ENDS vs smoking) were: 28% for respiratory diseases (five results, three studies); 42% for cancers (five results, four studies); and 35% for cardiovascular (seven results, four studies). When integrated with the HALY impacts by disease, the overall harm to health from ENDS was estimated to be 33% that of smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis, suggests that the use of modern ENDS devices (vaping) could be a third as harmful to health as smoking in a high-income country setting. But this estimate is based on a limited number of biomarker studies and is best be considered a likely upper level of ENDS risk given potential biases in our method (i.e., the biomarkers used being correlated with more unaccounted for toxicants in smoking compared to with using ENDS).

Updated Health and Cost Impacts of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems, Using Recent Estimates of Relative Harm for Vaping Compared to Smoking

BACKGROUND

Measuring population health and costs effects of liberalizing access to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is an evolving field with high persisting uncertainty. A critical area of uncertainty for policy-makers are estimates of net harms from ENDS relative to cigarettes, therefore, we model these harms using updated estimates incorporating disease specificity.

METHODS

We use updated estimates of relative harm of vaping vs smoking, based upon relevant biomarker studies to model the impact of liberalizing access to ENDS in New Zealand (NZ), relative to a ban (where ENDS are not legally available), in an existing proportional multi-state life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases.

RESULTS

This modeling suggests that ENDS liberalization results in an expected gain of 195 000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the remainder of the NZ population's lifespan. There was wide uncertainty in QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = -8000 to 406 000) with a 3.2% probability of net health loss (based upon the number of simulation runs returning positive QALY gains). The average per capita health gain was 0.044 QALYs (equivalent to an extra 16 days of healthy life). Health system cost-savings were expected to be NZ$2.8 billion (US$2.1 billion in 2020 US$; 95%UI: -0.3 to 6.2 billion [2011 NZ$]), with an estimated 3% chance of a net increase in per capita cost.

CONCLUSIONS

This updated modeling around liberalizing ENDs in NZ, still suggests likely net health and cost-saving benefits-but of lesser magnitude than previous work and with a small possibility of net harm to population health.

IMPLICATIONS

This study found evidence using updated biomarker studies that ENDS liberalization could result in QALY gains across the New Zealand population lifespan that are also cost-saving to the health system. Governments should include the information from these types of modeling studies in their decision-making around potentially improving access to ENDS for existing smokers, while at the same further reducing access to tobacco.

Hookah is the enemy of health campaign: a campaign for prevention of hookah smoking among youth

Hookah smoking is now a serious health threat especially for adolescents. Implementation of planned interventions can help reduce hookah smoking. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of a campaign Hookah is the Enemy of Health Campaign (HEHC) based on the protection motivation theory to prevent hookah smoking among the youth in Sirjan city, in 2018. This was a pre- and post-intervention study. Participants were 280 male and female youth who were selected randomly through the health centers of Sirjan. The educational campaign was conducted during 3 months and participants were trained through interpersonal, group, organizational and community channels and mass media. Data were collected by filling out a questionnaire (containing 64 questions) by the participant before the intervention and 3 months after. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics (frequency and percentage), chi-square and Wilcoxon signed-rank test by SPSS20 software. The prevalence of hookah smoking was 44.3% in the target group. There was a significant change in the mean scores of knowledge and perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, response efficiency, self-efficacy, rewards, fear and protection motivation after the HEHC (p < 0.05), but there was no significant difference in the structure of perceived cost (p > 0.05). Also, the prevalence of hookah smoking among the target group for those who had ever consumed decreased from 8.9 to 4% and for those who used it occasionally decreased from 35 to 19.4%. The HEHC was effective in reducing hookah smoking, raising knowledge and improving the constructs of the protection motivation theory among the youth of Sirjan.

Applying the Population Health Standard to the Regulation of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems

Regulatory authorities have devoted increasing attention and resources to a range of issues surrounding the regulation of novel nicotine and tobacco products. This review highlights the inherent complexity of evaluating prospective policies that pertain to products that heat solutions containing nicotine, but not tobacco leaf, sometimes referred to as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is compelled to incorporate a set of public health criteria in their decision making, collectively referred to as the Population Health Standard. Adherence to this standard is necessary to estimate the impact of prospective ENDS policy decisions on net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products. For policies that are expected to decrease or increase ENDS use, application of the Population Health Standard requires a comprehensive assessment of the status quo impact of ENDS use on population health. Accordingly, this review first assesses the state of the evidence on the direct harms of ENDS and the indirect effects of ENDS use on smoking, particularly rates of initiation and cessation. After that, the example of flavor restrictions is used to demonstrate the further considerations that are involved in applying the Population Health Standard to a prospective ENDS policy. Implications: This narrative review aims to inform regulatory considerations about ENDS through the prism of the Population Health Standard. More specifically, this review (1) describes and explains the importance of this approach; (2) provides guidance on evaluating the state of the evidence linking ENDS to the net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products; and (3) illustrates how this framework can inform policymaking using the example of flavor restrictions.

US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012-2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5-11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1-13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8-14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4-15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18-44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

Antioxidants in smokers

Cigarette smoke (CS) is likely the most common preventable cause of human morbidity and mortality worldwide. Consequently, inexpensive interventional strategies for preventing CS-related diseases would positively impact health systems. Inhaled CS is a powerful inflammatory stimulus and produces a shift in the normal balance between antioxidants and oxidants, inducing oxidative stress in both the respiratory system and throughout the body. This enduring and systemic pro-oxidative state within the body is reflected by increased levels of oxidative stress and inflammation biomarkers seen in smokers. Smokers might benefit from consuming antioxidant supplements, or a diet rich in fruit and vegetables, which can reduce the CS-related oxidative stress. This review provides an overview of the plasma profile of antioxidants observable in smokers and examines the heterogeneous literature to elucidate and discuss the effectiveness of interventional strategies based on antioxidant supplements or an antioxidant-rich diet to improve the health of smokers. An antioxidant-rich diet can provide an easy-to-implement and cost-effective preventative strategy to reduce the risk of CS-related diseases, thus being one of the simplest ways for smokers to stay in good health for as long as possible. The health benefits attributable to the intake of antioxidants have been observed predominantly when these have been consumed within their natural food matrices in an optimal antioxidant-rich diet, while these preventive effects are rarely achieved with the intake of individual antioxidants, even at high doses.

Youth Vaping and Tobacco Use in Context in the United States: Results From the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey

INTRODUCTION

According to the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), youth e-cigarette use (vaping) rose between 2017 and 2018. Frequency of vaping and concurrent past 30-day (p30d) use of e-cigarettes and tobacco products have not been reported.

METHODS

We analyzed the 2018 NYTS (N = 20 189) for vaping among all students (middle and high school; 6-12th grades; 9-19 years old) by frequency of vaping, exclusive vaping, p30d poly-product use (vaping and use of one or more tobacco product), and any past tobacco product use.

RESULTS

In 2018, 81.4% of students had not used any tobacco or vapor product in the p30d, and 86.2% had not vaped in the p30d. Among all students, of the 13.8% vaped in the p30d, just over half vaped on ≤5 days (7.0%), and roughly a quarter each vaped on 6-19 days (3.2%) and on 20+ days (3.6%). Almost three quarters of p30d vapers (9.9%) reported past or concurrent tobacco use and the remainder (3.9%) were tobacco naïve. 2.8% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped on ≤5 days; 0.7% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 6-19 days, and 0.4% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 20+ days.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaping increased among US youth in 2018 over 2017. The increases are characterized by patterns of low p30d vaping frequency and high poly-product use, and a low prevalence of vaping among more frequent but tobacco naïve vapers.

IMPLICATIONS

Results underscore the importance of including the full context of use patterns. The majority of vapers (60.0%-88.9% by use frequency) were concurrent p30d or ever tobacco users. About 4% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped in the p30d, but few (0.4%) vaped regularly on 20 or more days. Reporting youth vaping data with frequency and tobacco product co-use will give public health decision-makers the best possible information to protect public health.

Estimating the Population Health Impact of Recently Introduced Modified Risk Tobacco Products: A Comparison of Different Approaches

INTRODUCTION

Various approaches have been used to estimate the population health impact of introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP).

AIMS AND METHODS

We aimed to compare and contrast aspects of models considering effects on mortality that were known to experts attending a meeting on models in 2018.

RESULTS

Thirteen models are described, some focussing on e-cigarettes, others more general. Most models are cohort-based, comparing results with or without MRTP introduction. They typically start with a population with known smoking habits and then use transition probabilities either to update smoking habits in the "null scenario" or joint smoking and MRTP habits in an "alternative scenario". The models vary in the tobacco groups and transition probabilities considered. Based on aspects of the tobacco history developed, the models compare mortality risks, and sometimes life-years lost and health costs, between scenarios. Estimating effects on population health depends on frequency of use of the MRTP and smoking, and the extent to which the products expose users to harmful constituents. Strengths and weaknesses of the approaches are summarized.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite methodological differences, most modellers have assumed the increase in risk of mortality from MRTP use, relative to that from cigarette smoking, to be very low and have concluded that MRTP introduction is likely to have a beneficial impact. Further model development, supplemented by preliminary results from well-designed epidemiological studies, should enable more precise prediction of the anticipated effects of MRTP introduction.

IMPLICATIONS

There is a need to estimate the population health impact of introducing modified risk nicotine-containing products for smokers unwilling or unable to quit. This paper reviews a variety of modeling methodologies proposed to do this, and discusses the implications of the different approaches. It should assist modelers in refining and improving their models, and help toward providing authorities with more reliable estimates.

Information and sin goods: Experimental evidence on cigarettes

We test the importance of information source on consumer choice in the context of sin goods, specifically electronic and tobacco cigarettes, among adult smokers. We proxy choice with intentions to vape and quit smoking in the next 30 days. We experimentally vary the information source: government, private companies, physicians, and no source. Our findings suggest that information source matters in the context of cigarettes choice for adult smokers. Private companies appear to be an important information source for cigarettes among adult smokers.

Effects of e-cigarette use on cigarette smoking among U.S. youth, 2004-2018

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the declining trend in U.S. youth cigarette smoking changed after e-cigarettes were introduced, and if youth e-cigarette users would have been likely to smoke cigarettes based on psychosocial and demographic predictors of smoking.

METHODS

An interrupted time series analysis was used for cross-sectional data from the 2004 to 2018 National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS) to assess changes in cigarette and e-cigarette use over time. A multivariable logistic regression model used 2004-2009 NYTS data on psychosocial risk factors to predict individual-level cigarette smoking risk from 2011 to 2018. Model-predicted and actual cigarette smoking behavior were compared.

RESULTS

The decline in current cigarette smoking slowed in 2014 (-0.75 [95% CI: -0.81, -0.68] to -0.26 [95% CI: -0.40, -0.12] percentage points per year). The decline in ever cigarette smoking accelerated after 2012 (-1.45 [95% CI: -1.59, -1.31] to -1.71 [95% CI: -1.75, -1.66]). Ever and current combined cigarette and/or e-cigarette use declined during 2011-2013 and increased during 2013-2014 with no significant change during 2014-2018 for either variable. The psychosocial model estimated that 69.0% of current cigarette smokers and 9.3% of current e-cigarette users (who did not smoke cigarettes) would smoke cigarettes in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of e-cigarettes was followed by a slowing decline in current cigarette smoking, a stall in combined cigarette and e-cigarette use, and an accelerated decline in ever cigarette smoking. Traditional psychosocial risk factors for cigarette smoking suggest that e-cigarette users do not fit the traditional risk profile of cigarette smokers.

Trends in Tobacco Use Among Adolescents by Grade, Sex, and Race, 1991-2019

IMPORTANCE

Use of e-cigarettes increased among adolescents between 2011 and 2019. However, whether these changes are affecting patterns of use of other tobacco products, especially cigarettes, remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the long-term and recent trends in cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use among US adolescents by grade (8th, 10th, and 12th), sex (male and female), and race (White and Black).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, joinpoint regression analyses were performed to characterize trends in tobacco product use for key sociodemographic groups, identifying change of trend years (joinpoints). Students in the 8th, 10th, and 12th grades at US secondary schools and high schools who participated in the nationally representative Monitoring the Future survey from January 7, 1991, to June 3, 2019, were evaluated.

EXPOSURES

Cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use during the past 30 days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Past 30-day and daily prevalence of cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use by year, grade, sex, and race. The prevalence trend segments, change of trend years (joinpoints), and annual percentage change (APC) in prevalence within each trend segment were estimated using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Since 1991, 487 335 8th-grade, 447 310 10th-grade, and 424 236 12th-grade students have completed the Monitoring the Future survey (including 663 663 girls and 632 698 boys [those who did not respond to the sex question in the survey were excluded from the sex analyses]). Past 30-day and daily smoking prevalence increased in all groups analyzed from 1991 until 1996 and 1997 and has been decreasing ever since, with more rapid reductions in recent years. For example, daily smoking among 12th-grade boys increased at an APC of 4.9% (95% CI, 3.5%-6.3%) from 1991 to 1998, decreased at an APC of -8.0% (95% CI, -9.3% to -6.7%) from 1998 to 2006, decreased at an APC of -1.6% (95% CI, -4.6% to 1.5%) from 2006 to 2012, and decreased at an APC of -17.4% (95% CI, -19.4% to -15.4%) from 2012 to 2019. Similar results were observed for boys in the 8th grade (5.0% [95% CI, 0.1%-10.2%] for 1991-1996, -8.8% [95% CI, -10.0% to -7.6%] for 1996-2011, and -17.3% [95% CI, -22.2% to -12.0%] for 2011-2019) and 10th grade (7.1% [95% CI, 3.7%-10.7%] for 1991-1997, -11.1% [95% CI, -13.9% to -8.2%] for 1997-2005,-0.7% [95% CI, -5.9% to 4.9%] for 2005-2011, and -17.9 [95%, -21.7% to -13.9%] for 2011-2019), for girls in 8th grade (10.9% [95% CI, 5.0%-17.2%] for 1991-1996 and -10.8% [95% CI, -11.7% to -10.0% for 1996-2019), 10th grade (7.2% [95% CI, 3.9%-10.7%] for 1991-1997, -9.5% [95% CI, -10.5% to -8.6%] for 1997-2012, and -16.3% [95% CI, -21.8% to -10.4%] for 2012-2019), and 12th grade (6.5% [95% CI, 3.6%-9.5%] for 1991-1997, -7.2% [95% CI, -8.1% to -6.3%] for 1997-2012, and -17.5% [95% CI, -21.2% to -13.6%] for 2012-2019). Results were similar, too, for Black adolescents (2015-2019 average annual percentage change: -8.6% [95% CI, -10.3% to -6.8%] for 8th graders; -17.7% [95% CI, -26.3% to -8.2%] for 10th graders; and -18.3% [95% CI, -23.9% to -12.2%] for 12th graders) and White adolescents (2015-2019 average annual percentage change: -17.3% [95% CI, -20.6% to -13.7%] for 8th graders; -16.9% [95% CI, -20.5% to -13.2%] for 10th graders; and -17.0% [95% CI, -20.5% to -13.2%] for 12th graders). Smokeless tobacco was used more variably through 2012, followed by consistent decreases in the past 5 years. For instance, smokeless tobacco use in the past 30 days in 10th-grade boys decreased at an APC of -6.5% (95% CI, -7.5% to -5.4%) from 1991 to 2004, increased at an APC of 3.1% (95% CI, -0.8% to 7.1%) from 2004 to 2012, and decreased at an APC of -11.6% (95% CI, -15.7% to -7.4%) from 2012 to 2019. Similarly, daily smokeless tobacco use in 12th-grade boys decreased at an APC of -3.8% (95% CI, -5.4% to -2.1%) from 1992 to 2005, increased at an APC of 3.1% (95% CI, -0.2% to 6.5%) from 2005 to 2015, and decreased at an APC of -23.0% (95% CI, -33.3% to -11.0%) from 2015 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study suggests that, despite the increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use among adolescents between 2011 and 2019, the prevalence of cigarette and smokeless tobacco use has decreased more rapidly during the same period compared with earlier years.

The impact of cigarette and e-cigarette use history on transition patterns: a longitudinal analysis of the population assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study, 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Population models have been developed to evaluate the impact of new tobacco products on the overall population. Reliable input parameters such as longitudinal tobacco use transitions are needed to quantify the net population health impact including the number of premature deaths prevented, additional life years, and changes in cigarette smoking prevalence.

METHODS

This secondary analysis assessed transition patterns from PATH wave 1 (2013-14) to wave 2 (2014-15) among adult exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and dual users. Transition probabilities were calculated by taking into account factors including cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to further evaluate factors associated with transition patterns.

RESULTS

Differential transition probabilities emerged among study subgroups when taking into account cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. For example, overall 45% of exclusive e-cigarette users in wave 1 continued using e-cigarettes exclusively in wave 2. However, we observed approximately 11 to 14% of wave 1 exclusive experimental e-cigarette users continued to use e-cigarette exclusively in wave 2, compared to about 62% of exclusive established e-cigarette users. The history of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use is another important factor associated with transition patterns. Among experimental e-cigarette users, 7.5% of individuals without a history of cigarette smoking transitioned to exclusive cigarette smoking, compared to 30% of individuals with a history of cigarette smoking. Additionally, 1.3% of exclusive cigarette smokers in wave 1 transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, with the highest transition probability (3.7%) observed in the established cigarette smoker with a history of e-cigarette use subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Product use histories and current use behaviors are important factors influencing transitions between product use states. Given that experimental users' transition behaviors may be more variable and more influenced by tobacco use history, long-term predictions made by population models could be improved by the use of transition probabilities from established users. As transition patterns might be changing over time, long-term transition patterns can be examined through analysis of future waves of PATH data.

Tobacco 21 Laws in Europe: A Policy Whose Time Has Come

INTRODUCTION

A 21 tobacco age of sale has been proposed for European nations.

METHODS

We briefly review past studies of underage purchase policies and their enforcement.

RESULTS

Past evaluations and modeling studies indicate important public health gains from 21 tobacco age of sale laws. However, further attention should be given to issues of compliance, the availability of social sources, and the breadth of coverage. In particular, the application of the law to e-cigarettes merits further attention.

CONCLUSIONS

Past literature indicates potential benefits of a 21 tobacco age of sale in terms of reducing tobacco use in European nations.

IMPLICATIONS

We review past studies of underage purchase laws, and the potential implications of applying that law to e-cigarettes. Past studies indicate the effectiveness of raising tobacco age of sale laws to 21. This law should be implemented and enforced in Europe.

Novel microsimulation model of tobacco use behaviours and outcomes: calibration and validation in a US population

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Simulation models can project effects of tobacco use and cessation and inform tobacco control policies. Most existing tobacco models do not explicitly include relapse, a key component of the natural history of tobacco use. Our objective was to develop, calibrate and validate a novel individual-level microsimulation model that would explicitly include smoking relapse and project cigarette smoking behaviours and associated mortality risks.

METHODS

We developed the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse. Simulated individuals face tobacco use-stratified mortality risks. For US women and men, we conducted cross-validation with a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) model. We then incorporated smoking relapse and calibrated cessation rates to reflect the difference between a transient quit attempt and sustained abstinence. We performed external validation with the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the linked National Death Index. Comparisons were based on root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In cross-validation, STOP-generated projections of current/former/never smoking prevalence fit CISNET-projected data well (coefficient of variation (CV)-RMSE≤15%). After incorporating smoking relapse, multiplying the CISNET-reported cessation rates for women/men by 7.75/7.25, to reflect the ratio of quit attempts to sustained abstinence, resulted in the best approximation to CISNET-reported smoking prevalence (CV-RMSE 2%/3%). In external validation using these new multipliers, STOP-generated cumulative mortality curves for 20-year-old current smokers and never smokers each had CV-RMSE ≤1% compared with NHIS. In simulating those surveyed by NHIS in 1997, the STOP-projected prevalence of current/former/never smokers annually (1998-2009) was similar to that reported by NHIS (CV-RMSE 12%).

CONCLUSIONS

The STOP model, with relapse included, performed well when validated to US smoking prevalence and mortality. STOP provides a flexible framework for policy-relevant analysis of tobacco and nicotine product use.

Is dual use of nicotine products and cigarettes associated with smoking reduction and cessation behaviours? A prospective study in England

OBJECTIVES

To investigate associations of dual use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes with subsequent quitting activity (smoking reduction, quit attempts and use of evidence-based cessation aids). To overcome potential confounding by factors associated with use of pharmacological support, we selected dual use of over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy (OTC NRT) and cigarettes as a behavioural control.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study with 6-month follow-up.

SETTING

England, 2014-2016.

PARTICIPANTS

413 current smokers participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study, a representative survey of adults in England, who reported current use of e-cigarettes or OTC NRT and provided data at 6-month follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The exposure was dual use of e-cigarettes or OTC NRT at baseline. Outcomes were change in cigarette consumption, quit attempts and use of evidence-based cessation aids during quit attempts over 6-month follow-up. Relevant sociodemographic and smoking characteristics were included as covariates.

RESULTS

After adjustment for covariates, dual e-cigarette users smoked two fewer cigarettes per day at follow-up than at baseline compared with dual OTC NRT users (B=2.01, 95% CI -3.62; -0.39, p=0.015). While dual e-cigarette users had 18% lower odds than dual OTC NRT users to make a quit attempt at follow-up (risk ratio (RR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00, p=0.049), the groups did not differ in use of cessation aids (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.21, p=0.388).

CONCLUSIONS

Dual use of e-cigarettes is associated with a greater reduction in cigarette consumption than dual use of OTC NRT. It may discourage a small proportion of users from making a quit attempt compared with dual OTC NRT use but it does not appear to undermine use of evidence-based cessation aids.

Integrating Social Dynamics Into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use

Background. The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarette) offers potential to facilitate cigarette smoking cessation, yet potentially increases risk of cigarette smoking initiation. This relationship has been primarily modeled in mathematical ways that often do not represent real-world complexities, which could inform decisions regarding local prevention programs or policies. Aims. To develop a model of cigarette and e-cigarette use that combines current research on tobacco use and incorporates real-world geographic and demographic data. Method. We used a platform for developing agent-based models with demographic information representative of the population in Pennsylvania. We developed three models of cigarette and e-cigarette use. The primary outcome for each was the total number of users for cigarette, e-cigarette, and total nicotine. The first model applied current cigarette and e-cigarette data, the second tested the effect of implementing a program of e-cigarette education and policies, and the third considered a social contagion factor, where local schools functioned as a transmission vector. Results. The baseline and social contagion models found an overall decline in cigarette use but an increase in e-cigarette and total nicotine use. The education/policies model had declines in all categories. Sensitivity analysis suggested the importance of nuanced e-cigarette/cigarette interactions when modeling tobacco use. Discussion. Public health campaigns that focus on reducing youth e-cigarette usage can have a large effect. Social contagion should be strongly considered when studying e-cigarette spread. Conclusion. Targeted public health campaigns focused on reducing school prevalence of e-cigarette use may be particularly valuable.

Nicotine vaping products as a harm reduction tool among smokers: Review of evidence and implications for pharmacy practice

With the growing popularity and use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs, also known as e-cigarettes) as a way to quit smoking, pharmacy staff are frequently asked by smokers for advice about NVPs. In Australia, there are currently no clear guidelines or policy statements provided by any of the professional organisations for pharmacists on how they should handle customer enquiries about NVPs, or on extemporaneous compounding of prescriptions for nicotine solution for use in NVPs as a smoking cessation aid. This commentary summarises the current evidence surrounding the safety and efficacy of NVPs, the Australian regulatory landscape, and provides a guide for pharmacy staff to use in discussions with customers regarding NVPs. Evidence strongly points to NVPs being considerably less harmful than smoking tobacco cigarettes and that they can be effective for smoking cessation. The maximum benefit from using NVPs as a harm reduction tool, however, will only be realised if smokers completely stop smoking rather than using NVPs as a partial substitute, because even low level smoking still confers substantial health risk. Vaping products containing nicotine are illegal to sell in Australia but users can still legally access nicotine e-liquid through some limited pathways if they hold a valid prescription from a registered medical practitioner. It is important that pharmacy staff keep abreast of the current evidence surrounding these products and provide evidence-based advice to customers.

Behavior-based yield for electronic cigarette users of different strength eliquids based on natural environment topography

Introduction: The extent to which electronic cigarette users will compensate for lower nicotine eliquids has implications on the risk associated with regulating eliquid composition. This article elucidates topography as a compensatory mechanism by investigating the impact of nicotine strength on total particulate matter (TPM) and nicotine consumed per puff.Methods: Thirty-three experienced vape pen users were assigned an NJOY™ VapePen and AVAIL™ brand Tobacco Row eliquid with their usual nicotine strength (L = 6 mg/mL, M = 12 mg/mL, H = 18 mg/mL) and vaped through RIT's wPUM^TM vape pen monitor to record every puff during 1 week. Nicotine and TPM yield per puff was determined accounting for the impact of topography characteristics on emissions and used to compute participant-specific mean yield per puff.Results: Nicotine yields ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 mg/puff and varied widely within each group (L, M, and H nicotine strength). Group-wise mean flow rate was lower for L compared to M (p = 0.2) and duration was higher compared to M (p = 0.09). Larger TPM was consumed per puff for L compared to M (p = 0.07), yet nicotine per puff for L was less than M (p = 0.3). H users took smaller volumes than L (p = 0.1) or M (p = 0.17), and there was little difference between L and M (p = 0.47).Conclusions: Evidence was provided for topography as a compensatory mechanism. Use of low nicotine strength eliquids can increase TPM, which can lead to increase in HPHC. Regulatory review of new products should consider natural use topography and realistic use exposures to nicotine, TPM and HPHCs.

E-cigarettes: Comparing the Possible Risks of Increasing Smoking Initiation with the Potential Benefits of Increasing Smoking Cessation

Introduction

The public health community is divided regarding electronic cigarettes. Skeptics emphasize potential vaping-induced increases in smoking among children and possible health hazards for adults. Enthusiasts consider e-cigarettes much less dangerous than smoking and believe they increase adult smoking cessation. We compare potential health benefits and costs to put these two perspectives in context.

Methods

Using a dynamic model that tracks the US adult population's smoking status and smoking-related deaths over time, we simulate the effects of vaping-induced smoking initiation and cessation on life-years saved or lost to the year 2070. The base case assumes that vaping annually increases smoking initiation by 2% and smoking cessation by 10%. Sensitivity analyses raise the initiation rate increase to 6% while decreasing the cessation rate increase to 5%. Sensitivity analyses also test vaping's reducing the health benefits of quitting smoking by 10%.

Results

With base-case assumptions, the population gains almost 3.3 million life-years by 2070. If all people who quit smoking by vaping lose 10% of the benefit of quitting smoking, the net life-year gain falls to 2.4 million. Under worst-case assumptions, in which vaping increases smoking initiation by 6% and cessation by 5%, and vaping-induced quitters lose 10% of the health benefits, the population gains over 580000 life-years.

Conclusion

Potential life-years gained as a result of vaping-induced smoking cessation are projected to exceed potential life-years lost due to vaping-induced smoking initiation. These results hold over a wide range of plausible parameters.

Implications

Our analysis strongly suggests that the upside health benefit associated with e-cigarettes, in terms of their potential to increase adult smoking cessation, exceeds their downside risk to health as a result of their possibly increasing the number of youthful smoking initiators. Public messaging and policy should continue to strive to reduce young people's exposure to all nicotine and tobacco products. But, they should not do so at the expense of limiting such products' potential to help adult smokers to quit.

A Combination of Factors Related to Smoking Behavior, Attractive Product Characteristics, and Socio-Cognitive Factors are Important to Distinguish a Dual User from an Exclusive E-Cigarette User

Although total cessation of nicotine and tobacco products would be most beneficial to improve public health, exclusive e-cigarette use has potential health benefits for smokers compared to cigarette smoking. This study investigated differences between dual users and exclusive e-cigarette users provide information to optimize health communication about smoking and vaping. A cross-sectional survey (n = 116) among 80 current, adult dual users and 36 current, adult-exclusive e-cigarette users was conducted in the Netherlands. The questionnaire assessed four clusters of factors: (1) Past and current smoking and vaping behavior, (2) product characteristics used, (3) attractiveness and reasons related to cigarettes and e-cigarettes, and (4) socio-cognitive factors regarding smoking, vaping, and not smoking or vaping. We used random forest-a machine learning algorithm-to identify distinguishing features between dual users and e-cigarette users. We are able to discern a dual user from an exclusive e-cigarette user with 86.2% accuracy based on seven factors: Social ties with other smokers, quantity of tobacco cigarettes smoked in the past (e-cigarette users) or currently (dual users), self-efficacy to not vape and smoke, unattractiveness of cigarettes, attitude towards e-cigarettes, barriers: accessibility of e-cigarettes, and intention to quit vaping (A). This combination of features provides information on how to improve health communication about smoking and vaping.

A modeling approach to gauging the effects of nicotine vaping product use on cessation from cigarettes: what do we know, what do we need to know?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The long-term population health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) use among smokers is unknown, and subject to a range of plausible assumptions about the use and health consequences of NVPs. While NVPs use may substitute for cigarette smoking and thereby aid in quitting cigarette use, it is also possible that smokers who would have otherwise quit would instead delay quitting cigarettes. We aimed to develop a cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of NVPs on smoking cessation by adult smokers and resulting premature deaths (PD) and life years lost (LYL).

DESIGN

A cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of NVPs on smoking cessation by adult smokers and resulting premature deaths (PD) and life years lost (LYL) was developed by gender for two birth cohorts, aged 30 and 50 years in 2012. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers in two birth cohorts, aged 30 and 50 years in 2012.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were from the 1965-2012 National Health Interview Surveys and the 2014/15 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey. The model incorporated a range of plausible assumptions from published literature about transition rates from regular smoking to exclusive NVP and dual use, from dual use to exclusive NVP use and from exclusive NVP use to no use.

FINDINGS

Compared with the no-NVP scenario, the male (female) model projected 17.8% (19.3%) fewer PDs and 22.9% (26.6%) fewer LYL for the 1982 cohort and 5.4% (7.3%) fewer PDs and 7.9% (11.4%) fewer LYL for the 1962 cohort. These gains were sensitive to NVP use over time, age of initial NVP use, transitions from smoking to dual, exclusive NVP and no use and relative NVP mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Nicotine vaping product (NVP) use in the United States is projected to have a net positive impact on population health over a wide range of plausible levels of NVP use, transitions to dual, exclusive NVP and no use and NVP risks. However, net impact is sensitive to parameter estimates.

A new classification system for describing concurrent use of nicotine vaping products alongside cigarettes (so-called 'dual use'): findings from the ITC-4 Country Smoking and Vaping wave 1 Survey

AIMS

To determine whether a simple combination of level of smoking and level of vaping results in a useful typology for characterizing smoking and vaping behaviours.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data from adults (≥ 18 years) in the 2016 wave 1 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in the United States (n = 2291), England (n = 3591), Australia (n = 1376) and Canada (n = 2784) were used. Participants who either smoked, vaped or concurrently used both at least monthly were included and divided into eight groups based on use frequency of each product (daily, non-daily, no current use). This resulted in four concurrent use groups (predominant smokers, dual daily users, predominant vapers and concurrent non-daily users). These groups were compared with each other and with the four exclusive use groups, on socio-demographics, nicotine dependence, beliefs and attitudes about both products, and quit-related measures using data weighted to reference population surveys in each country.

RESULTS

Of the sample, 10.8% were concurrent users, with daily smokers vaping non-daily (predominant smokers), constituting 51.6% of this group. All eight categories differed from other categories on at least some measures. Concurrent daily nicotine users reported higher levels of indicators of nicotine dependence, and generally more positive attitudes toward both smoking and vaping than concurrent non-daily users. Among daily nicotine users, compared with exclusive daily smokers, reports of interest in quitting were higher in all concurrent use groups. Dual daily users had the most positive attitudes about smoking overall, and saw it as the least denormalized, and at the same time were equally interested in quitting as other concurrent users and were most likely to report intending to continue vaping.

CONCLUSIONS

In Australia, Canada, England and the United States in 2016, daily nicotine users differed considerably from non-daily nicotine users. Among daily nicotine users, dual daily users (those who smoke and vape concurrently) should be treated as a distinct grouping when studying relationships between smoking and vaping. The eight-level typology characterizing concurrent and exclusive use of smoking and vaping should be considered when studying both products.

Evaluating smoking control policies in the e-cigarette era: a modelling study

Background

In jurisdictions in which electronic cigarettes are currently prohibited, policy makers must weigh the potentially lower risk compared with conventional cigarettes against the risk of initiation of e-cigarettes among non-smokers.

Methods

We simulated a synthetic population over a 50-year time horizon with an open cohort model using data from Singapore, a country where e-cigarettes are currently prohibited, and data from the USA, the UK and Japan. Using the smoking prevalence and the quality-adjusted life year gained calculated, we compared tobacco control policies without e-cigarettes—namely, raising the minimum legal age (MLA), introducing a smoke-free generation (SFG) and tax rises on tobacco consumption—with policies legalising e-cigarettes, either taking a laissez-faire approach or under some form of restriction. We also evaluated combinations of these policies.

Results

Regardless of the country informing the transition probabilities to and from e-cigarette use in Singapore, a laissez-faire e-cigarette policy could reduce the smoking prevalence in the short term, but it is not as effective as other policies in the long term. The most effective single policies evaluated were SFG and aggressive tax rises; the most effective combination of policies considered was MLA plus moderate tax rises and e-cigarettes on prescription.

Conclusion

Policy makers in jurisdictions in which e-cigarettes are not yet established may be advised not to prioritise e-cigarettes in their tobacco end-game strategy, unless their use can be restricted to current smokers seeking to quit.

'S'-shaped curve: modelling trends in smoking prevalence, uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016

BACKGROUND

It is believed that declines in smoking prevalence naturally slow over time as the smoking population 'hardens' and that progress has come primarily from reducing uptake rather than increasing cessation. To address these issues, we undertook the first formal attempt to model the trajectory of smoking prevalence and indices of uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016.

METHODS

Using data from the General Lifestyle Survey between 1973 and 2008, the Integrated Household Survey between 2009 and 2014 and the Annual Population Survey between 2015 and 2016, this study modelled year-on-year changes in smoking prevalence, ever-smoking in 18-24-year-olds as an index of uptake, and quit ratios as an index of cessation.

RESULTS

For all three outcomes, changes over time were best fitted by what may be broadly characterised as 'S'-shaped curves: segmented functions characterised by initial rapid progress, a slowing or reversal, then renewed progress. Smoking prevalence in Great Britain showed a decelerating decline over time between 1973 and 2000, but then, after the introduction of the National 'Smoking Kills' tobacco control plan, the decline accelerated again and has remained nearly linear at -0.67 percentage points per year. Ever-smoking showed a decelerating decline which eventually ceased and began increasing around 1994 but then declined again after 2000. Quit ratios rose rapidly then slowed and then accelerated around 2000 and again more recently in 2013.

CONCLUSION

Long-term trends in smoking prevalence, uptake and cessation have followed a broadly 'S'-shaped trend suggesting that they are responsive to major tobacco control initiatives. The decline in prevalence has resulted both from reductions in uptake and increases in cessation.

Social influence of e-cigarette smoking prevalence on smoking behaviours among high-school teenagers: Microsimulation experiments

The prevalence of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has rapidly increased among young people, while conventional cigarette use has decreased in this age group. However, some evidence suggests that e-cigarette use is likely to induce conventional cigarette smoking. The present study explored the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use in the peer network and in the general population as a potential mechanism by which e-cigarette use affects adolescents’ overall smoking behaviours. For this purpose, we developed an agent-based model in which young agents repeatedly choose to smoke conventional cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes, or to remain non-smokers. The choice is based on the agent’s evaluation of the utility derived from smoking and attitude towards smoking (‘openness’), which is influenced by smoking prevalence in the agent’s peer network and in the broader society. We also assumed a ‘crossover’ effect between the different types of smoking. The model was calibrated with United States National Youth Tobacco Survey data to reflect real-world numbers. We further simulated the prevalence of different types of smoking under counterfactual scenarios with different levels of openness and crossover effects. The models developed successfully reproduced actual prevalence trends in different types of smoking from 2011 to 2014. Openness to smoking is associated with a dramatic increase in e-cigarette smoking and especially in dual smoking, which cancels out the decline in sole conventional smoking. Larger crossover effects are associated with a higher prevalence of conventional smoking. The simulation results indicate that the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use may influence young people to initiate or continue conventional cigarette smoking. Assessing the impact of e-cigarettes in the general population as a ‘healthier’ alternative to conventional smoking may require carefully monitoring trends in young people’s smoking behaviours.

A Computational Model for Assessing the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Claim on an Existing Smokeless Tobacco Product

Computational models are valuable tools for predicting the population effects prior to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorization of a modified risk claim on a tobacco product. We have developed and validated a population model using best modeling practices. Our model consists of a Markov compartmental model based on cohorts starting at a defined age and followed up to a specific age accounting for 29 tobacco-use states based on a cohort members transition pathway. The Markov model is coupled with statistical mortality models and excess relative risk ratio estimates to determine survival probabilities from use of smokeless tobacco. Our model estimates the difference in premature deaths prevented by comparing Base Case ("world-as-is") and Modified Case (the most likely outcome given that a modified risk claim is authorized) scenarios. Nationally representative transition probabilities were used for the Base Case. Probabilities of key transitions for the Modified Case were estimated based on a behavioral intentions study in users and nonusers. Our model predicts an estimated 93,000 premature deaths would be avoided over a 60-year period upon authorization of a modified risk claim. Our sensitivity analyses using various reasonable ranges of input parameters do not indicate any scenario under which the net benefit could be offset entirely.

"Technophilia": A new risk factor for electronic cigarette use among early adolescents?

PURPOSE

Develop and validate a scale that measures Technophilia (positive orientation toward new technology) and use it to address orientation toward new technologies to explain e-cigarette trial and adoption, especially in relatively low risk adolescents.

METHODS

Survey data were obtained from students of the three largest cities in Mexico (n = 8123). We developed eight questions involving access, use and pleasure from different electronic media to measure technophilia. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted. Linear GEE models were used when regressing technophilia on covariates. When regressing e-cigarette and conventional cigarette trial and use, logistic GEE models were used. Finally, we used multinomial logistic regression to evaluate the associations between technophilia and e-cigarettes as the first tobacco product.

RESULTS

Technophilia were correlated with theoretically-related variables. Unadjusted and adjusted models regressing e-cigarette trial and use indicated that students in the highest quartile for technophilia were more likely to have tried e-cigarettes compared with the lowest quartile (AORQ4 vs Q1 = 1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.62). Technophilia was not independently associated with current e-cigarette use in adjusted models. Students with higher technophilia were more likely to have first tried e-cigarettes in both crude and adjusted models (AORQ4vQ1 = 1.66, 95% CI 1.20-2.31; AORQ3vQ1 = 1.43, 95% CI 1.02-2.01). Technophilia did not have a statistically significant, independent association with first use of other tobacco products.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that technophilia is associated with trial of e-cigarettes among youth. The measure we developed appears useful for understanding why some youth are open to trying novel, technologically oriented ways to consume nicotine.

Perceived health effects of vaping among Hungarian adult e-cigarette-only and dual users: a cross-sectional internet survey

BACKGROUND

Knowledge about the health effects of e-cigarette use (or vaping) among past and current combustible cigarette users is limited. Several studies have assessed vaping-related adverse events (AEs) and beneficial health effects, however, most studies focused on AEs in general and examined only a few physiological changes that vapers experience. This study aims to explore self-reported AEs and perceived health changes due to e-cigarette use among Hungarian adult e-cigarette-only users (former smokers who switched completely to e-cigarette use) and dual users (smokers who use e-cigarettes and combustible tobacco cigarettes concomitantly).

METHODS

A cross-sectional, web-based survey of 1042 adult Hungarian e-cigarette users was conducted in 2015. Participants reported AEs and changes in physiological functions since they switched from smoking to e-cigarette use or while dually using e-cigarettes and combustible cigarettes. Confirmatory factor analysis with covariates was applied to explain perceived health changes due to e-cigarette-only use and dual use.

RESULTS

Dual users (17.6%) were significantly more likely to report AEs of vaping than e-cigarette-only users (26.2% vs. 11.8%, p < 0.001). Experiencing health improvements were significantly more likely among e-cigarette-only users than for dual users for all surveyed physiological functions. E-cigarette-only users reported larger effects of vaping on sensory, physical functioning, and mental health factors compared to dual users. Self-reported changes in sensory and physical functioning were significantly higher among individuals using e-cigarettes more than a year and people who were past heavy smokers (smoked ≥20 cigarettes per day). Gender was related to sensory improvement only; males reported greater improvement than females.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of e-cigarette-only users reported more perceived beneficial changes in physiological functions and fewer AEs than dual users. Perceived short-term benefits of e-cigarette use may reinforce users despite the uncertainty of long-term health consequences. Health professionals should provide balanced information regarding the possible short- and long-term positive and negative health effects of e-cigarette use during consultations with patients.

Re: Disregarding the impact of nicotine on the developing brain when evaluating costs and benefits of noncombustible nicotine products

This Letter to the Editor is in response to a letter from Ms. Flannery, titled, "Disregarding the impact of nicotine on the developing brain when evaluating costs and benefits of noncombustible nicotine products". In our response, we address some concerns raised by Ms. Flannery, and reiterate our position in our original article. In particular, we underline the importance of a rational public health calculus that weighs beneficial and harmful consequences of policies related to noncombustible nicotine product (NNP) use. We further emphasize the need to correct misperceptions about relative risk of different products to encourage smokers to switch to NNPs. Lastly, we are explicit about our assertion that no use of any nicotine-containing products is the only way to avoid harm at any age, but that we must view this issue pragmatically for the benefit of public health.

To "vape" or smoke? Experimental evidence on adult smokers

A growing share of the United States population uses e-cigarettes but the optimal regulation of these controversial products remains an open question. We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate how adult tobacco cigarette smokers' demand for e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes varies by four attributes: (i) whether e-cigarettes are considered healthier than tobacco cigarettes, (ii) the effectiveness of e-cigarettes as a cessation device, (iii) bans on use in public places, and (iv) price. We find that adult smokers' demand for e-cigarettes is motivated more by health concerns than by the desire to avoid smoking bans or higher prices.

Managing nicotine without smoke to save lives now: Evidence for harm minimization

Tobacco control has made strides in prevention and cessation, but deaths will not decline rapidly without massive behavior change. Currently, inhaled smoke from combusting tobacco is chiefly responsible for prematurely killing 7.2 million people worldwide and 530,000 in the United States annually. An array of noncombustible nicotine products (NNPs) has emerged and has disrupted the marketplace. Saving lives more speedily will require societal acceptance of locating a "sweet spot" within a three-dimensional framework where NNPs are simultaneously: 1. Less toxic, 2. Appealing (can reach smokers at scale), and 3. Satisfying (adequate nicotine delivery) to displace smoking. For this harm minimization framework to eliminate smoking, a laser focus on "smoking control" (not general tobacco control) is needed. By adopting these economically viable NNPs as part of the solution, NNPs can be smoking control's valued ally. Synthesis of the science indicates that policy and regulation can sufficiently protect youth while speeding the switch away from smoking. Despite some risks of nicotine dependence that can be mitigated but not eliminated, no credible evidence counters the assertion that NNPs will save lives if they displace smoking. But scientific evidence and advocacy has selectively exaggerated NNP harms over benefits. Accurate communication is crucial to dispel the misperception of NNPs harms and reassure smokers they can successfully replace smoking cigarettes with NNPs. Saving more lives now is an attainable and pragmatic way to call for alignment of all stakeholders and factions within traditional tobacco control rather than perpetuate the unrealized and unrealizable perfection of nicotine prohibition.

Are we guilty of errors of omission on the potential role of electronic nicotine delivery systems as less harmful substitutes for combusted tobacco use?

Two of the more controversial tobacco control and regulatory strategies in recent years are the nicotine reduction and tobacco harm reduction (THR) strategies. They have become inextricably intertwined as a successful nicotine reduction policy might only be possible in an environment in which alternative, noncombusted forms of nicotine like electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are available to address the needs of those who were unable or unwilling to completely give up nicotine. Unfortunately, ENDS have emerged as particularly controversial, in part, because they are the first product to carry reduced risk potential while being broadly appealing to cigarette smokers across demographic groups and subpopulations, and to a much smaller extent nonsmokers including, and most controversial, adolescents. In an effort to better understand some of the reasons that make this a controversial topic, we review some of the relevant history and discuss a broader dilemma that faces practitioners and policy developers of medical and public health interventions, namely, weighing the potential consequences of errors of commission versus omission. Commission errors involve a salient, direct link between an action and associated adverse or unintended consequences while omission errors are typically less salient with a more indirect link between inaction and associated adverse consequences. Decision-making research demonstrates that humans have a bias towards avoidance of commission errors and insensitivity to omission errors. This bias may be contributing to some of the aforementioned difficulties in finding common ground regarding the potential contribution of ENDS to reducing the harm of combusted tobacco use.

Are smokers who are regularly exposed to e-cigarette use by others more or less motivated to stop or to make a quit attempt? A cross-sectional and longitudinal survey

BACKGROUND

Concerns have been raised that observing other people using e-cigarettes may undermine motivation to quit by renormalising smoking. This study aimed to explore associations between regular exposure to other people's e-cigarette use and motivation to stop smoking and quit attempts in smokers.

METHODS

Data were from 12,787 smokers in England who participated in the Smoking Toolkit Study between November 2014 and May 2018. At baseline, respondents were asked whether anyone other than themselves regularly used an e-cigarette in their presence, whether they had made a quit attempt in the past year and how motivated they were to stop. Data at 6-month follow-up were available for 1580 respondents, who reported on whether they had attempted to quit in the past 6 months.

RESULTS

Smokers who reported regular exposure to e-cigarette use by others were more likely than those who did not to have tried to stop smoking in the past year (32.3% vs. 26.8%; unadjusted RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.11-1.31) and have high motivation to quit (16.6% vs. 14.2%; unadjusted RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30) but were not significantly more or less likely to make a quit attempt over the subsequent 6 months (34.4% vs. 31.3%; unadjusted RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.38). In models that adjusted for participants' own current e-cigarette use and unadjusted and adjusted models excluding current e-cigarette users from the sample, there were no significant associations between exposure to e-cigarette use by others and past quit attempts (RR 0.97-1.00), high current motivation to quit (RR 0.97-1.00) or prospective quit attempts (RR 0.94-1.12). In contrast, exposure to use of cigarettes was associated with low motivation to quit even after adjustment (RR 0.89) but not with quit attempts. Participants' own use of e-cigarette was strongly associated with high motivation to quit (RR 1.95) and past quit attempts (RR 2.14) and appeared to account for the bivariate associations with reported exposure to e-cigarettes.

CONCLUSION

Smokers who report regular exposure to other people using e-cigarettes are more likely to report past quit attempts and high current motivation to quit, but there does not appear to be an independent association with motivation or quit attempts after adjustment for their own current use of e-cigarettes. In contrast, reported exposure to other people using cigarettes was independently and negatively associated with high motivation.

Modelling the impact of a new tobacco product: review of Philip Morris International's Population Health Impact Model as applied to the IQOS heated tobacco product

OBJECTIVES

We review the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) developed by Philip Morris International and used in its application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to market its heated tobacco product (HTP), IQOS, as a modified-risk tobacco product (MRTP). We assess the model against FDA guidelines for MRTP applications and consider more general criteria for evaluating reduced-risk tobacco products.

METHODS

In assessing the PHIM against FDA guidelines, we consider two key components of the model: the assumptions implicit in the model (outcomes included, relative harm of the new product vs cigarettes, tobacco-related diseases considered, whether dual or polyuse of the new product is modelled, and what other tobacco products are included) and data used to estimate and validate model parameters (transition rates between non-smoking, cigarette-only smoking, dual use of cigarettes and MRTP, and MRTP-only use; and starting tobacco use prevalence).

RESULTS

The PHIM is a dynamic state transition model which models the impact of cigarette and MRTP use on mortality from four tobacco-attributable diseases. The PHIM excludes morbidity, underestimates mortality, excludes tobacco products other than cigarettes, does not include FDA-recommended impacts on non-users and underestimates the impact on other population groups.

CONCLUSION

The PHIM underestimates the health impact of HTP products and cannot be used to justify an MRTP claim. An assessment of the impact of a potential MRTP on population health should include a comprehensive measure of health impacts, consideration of all groups impacted, and documented and justifiable assumptions regarding model parameters.

A Descriptive Report of Electronic Cigarette Use After Participation in a Community-Based Tobacco Cessation Trial

Introduction

Smokers are using electronic cigarettes, also known as e-cigarettes, as a cessation aid, despite uncertainty about their efficacy. This report describes the association between use of e-cigarettes before and after cessation treatment and tobacco abstinence at 12 months. It also presents characteristics of e-cigarette users and reasons for use.

Methods

A longitudinal observational secondary analysis of self-reported e-cigarette use was conducted among adult Appalachian smokers enrolled in a community-based tobacco dependence treatment trial (n = 217). Data were collected at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months following treatment. The primary outcome measure was biochemically-confirmed 7-day point prevalence tobacco abstinence at 12 months post-treatment.

Results

One in five participants reported using e-cigarettes post-treatment. Baseline sociodemographic and tobacco-related characteristics did not differ by e-cigarette use. Primary reasons for e-cigarette use included help in quitting, help in cutting down on cigarettes, and not as bad for health. At the 12 month follow-up, tobacco abstinence was significantly lower among post-treatment e-cigarette users (4.7%) than nonusers (19.0%); (OR = 0.21 95% CI: 0.05-0.91, p = .021). Baseline use was not associated with 12-month abstinence.

Conclusions

Among adult Appalachian smokers enrolled in community-based tobacco cessation treatment, use of e-cigarettes post-treatment was associated with lower abstinence rates at 12 months.

Implications

This descriptive report of electronic cigarette use after participation in a community-based group randomized tobacco dependence treatment trial adds to the body of science examining e-cigarette use and cessation. Post-treatment e-cigarette use was associated with less success in achieving abstinence at 12 months, as compared to nonuse. At 3 months post-treatment, the majority of those who reported use of e-cigarettes did so to assist with cessation.