A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

Diverging growth trends and climate sensitivities of individual pine trees after the 1976 extreme drought

Summer droughts are affecting the productivity and functioning of central European forests, with potentially lasting consequences for species composition and carbon sequestration. Long-term recovery rates and individual growth responses that may diverge from species-specific and population-wide behaviour are, however, poorly understood. Here, we present 2052 pine (Pinus sylvestris) ring width series from 19 forest sites in south-west Germany to investigate growth responses of individual trees to the exceptionally hot and dry summer of 1976. This outstanding drought event presents a distinctive test case to examine long-term post-drought recovery dynamics. We have proposed a new classification approach to identify a distinct sub-population of trees, referred to as "temporarily affected trees", with a prevalence ranging from 9 to 33 % across the forest stands. These trees exhibited an exceptionally prolonged growth suppression, lasting over a decade, indicating significantly lower resilience to the 1976 drought and a 50 % reduced capacity to recover to pre-drought states. Furthermore, shifts in resilience and recovery dynamics are accompanied by changing climate sensitivities, notably an increased response to maximum temperatures and summer droughts in post-1976 affected pines. Our findings underscore the likely interplay between individual factors and micro-site conditions that contribute to divergent tree responses to droughts. Assessing these factors at the individual tree level is recommended to advancing our understanding of forest responses to extreme drought events. By analyzing sub-population growth patterns, our study provides valuable insights into the impacts of summer droughts on central European forests in context of increasing drought events.

Warming and disturbances affect Arctic-boreal vegetation resilience across northwestern North America

Rapid warming and increasing disturbances in high-latitude regions have caused extensive vegetation shifts and uncertainty in future carbon budgets. Better predictions of vegetation dynamics and functions require characterizing resilience, which indicates the capability of an ecosystem to recover from perturbations. Here, using temporal autocorrelation of remotely sensed greenness, we quantify time-varying vegetation resilience during 2000-2019 across northwestern North American Arctic-boreal ecosystems. We find that vegetation resilience significantly decreased in southern boreal forests, including forests showing greening trends, while it increased in most of the Arctic tundra. Warm and dry areas with high elevation and dense vegetation cover were among the hotspots of reduced resilience. Resilience further declined both before and after forest losses and fires, especially in southern boreal forests. These findings indicate that warming and disturbance have been altering vegetation resilience, potentially undermining the expected long-term increase of high-latitude carbon uptake under future climate.

Can mixing Quercus robur and Quercus petraea with Pinus sylvestris compensate for productivity losses due to climate change?

The climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a representative concentration pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 and 8.5 W m-2 by 2100, respectively, predict an increase in temperature of 1-4.5° Celsius for Europe and a simultaneous shift in precipitation patterns leading to increased drought frequency and severity. The negative consequences of such changes on tree growth on dry sites or at the dry end of a tree species distribution are well-known, but rarely quantified across large gradients. In this study, the growth of Quercus robur and Quercus petraea (Q. spp.) and Pinus sylvestris in pure and mixed stands was predicted for a historical scenario and the two climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the individual tree growth model PrognAus. Predictions were made along an ecological gradient ranging from current mean annual temperatures of 5.5-11.4 °C and with mean annual precipitation sums of 586-929 mm. Initial data for the simulation consisted of 23 triplets established in pure and mixed stands of Q. spp. and P. sylvestris. After doing the simulations until 2100, we fitted a linear mixed model using the predicted volume in the year 2100 as response variable to describe the general trends in the simulation results. Productivity decreased for both Q. spp. and P. sylvestris with increasing temperature, and more so, for the warmer sites of the gradient. P. sylvestris is the more productive tree species in the current climate scenario, but the competitive advantage shifts to Q. spp., which is capable to endure very high negative water potentials, for the more severe climate change scenario. The Q. spp.-P. sylvestris mixture presents an intermediate resilience to increased scenario severity. Enrichment of P. sylvestris stands by creating mixtures with Q. spp., but not the opposite, might be a right silvicultural adaptive strategy, especially at lower latitudes. Tree species mixing can only partly compensate productivity losses due to climate change. This may, however, be possible in combination with other silvicultural adaptation strategies, such as thinning and uneven-aged management.

A warmer climate impairs the growth performance of Central Europe's major timber species in lowland regions

Recent hot droughts have caused tree vitality decline and increased mortality in many forest regions on earth. Most of Central Europe's important timber species have suffered from the extreme 2018/2019 hot drought, confronting foresters with difficult questions about the choice of more drought- and heat-resistant tree species. We compared the growth dynamics of European beech, sessile oak, Scots pine and Douglas fir in a warmer and a cooler lowland region of Germany to explore the adaptive potential of the four species to climate warming (24 forest stands). The basal area increment (BAI) of the two conifers has declined since about 1990-2010 in both regions, and that of beech in the warmer region, while oak showed positive BAI trends. A 2 °C difference in mean temperatures and a higher frequency of hot days (temperature maximum >30 °C) resulted in greater sensitivity to a negative climatic water balance in beech and oak, and elevated sensitivity to summer heat in Douglas fir and pine. This suggests to include hot days in climate-growth analyses. Negative pointer years were closely related to dry years. Nevertheless, all species showed growth recovery within one to three years. We conclude that all four species are sensitive to a deteriorating climatic water balance and hot temperatures, and have so far not been able to successfully acclimate to the warmer climate, with especially Douglas and beech, but also Scots pine, being vulnerable to a warming and drying climate.

Divergent spatio-temporal tree growth trends in Pinus pinaster Ait. in South-Western European forests

Climate change influences forest ecosystems in several ways, such as modifying forest growth or ecosystem functionality. To fully understand the impact of changing climatic conditions on forest growth it is necessary to undertake long-term spatiotemporal analyses. The main purpose of this work is to describe the major trends in tree growth of Pinus pinaster in Spain over the last 70 years, differentiating homogeneous ecological units using an unsupervised classification algorithm and additive modelling techniques. We also aim to relate these growth trends with temporal series for precipitation and temperature, as well as forest variables. We leverage information from a large data set of tree cores (around 2200) extracted during the field campaign of the Fourth Spanish National Forest Inventory. An unsupervised algorithm classified the plots into five classes, which were consistent in ecological terms. We also found a general decline in growth in three of the five ecoregions since the 1970s, concomitant with an increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation. However, this tree growth decline has not been observed in the Atlantic influenced ecoregion, where the cooler, more humid climatic conditions are more stable. Certain stand features, such as low basal area through forest management practices, may have alleviated the impact of harsh climatic conditions on some areas of inner Spain, while denser stands display a more pronounced decline in tree growth. We concluded that Southern populations show some degrees of growth decline and low growth trends while Northern populations did not exhibit growth decline and have the largest growth rates. Under a forecasted increment of temperatures, the growth decline can be expanded.

Tree demographic strategies largely overlap across succession in Neotropical wet and dry forest communities

Secondary tropical forests play an increasingly important role in carbon budgets and biodiversity conservation. Understanding successional trajectories is therefore imperative for guiding forest restoration and climate change mitigation efforts. Forest succession is driven by the demographic strategies-combinations of growth, mortality and recruitment rates-of the tree species in the community. However, our understanding of demographic diversity in tropical tree species stems almost exclusively from old-growth forests. Here, we assembled demographic information from repeated forest inventories along chronosequences in two wet (Costa Rica, Panama) and two dry (Mexico) Neotropical forests to assess whether the ranges of demographic strategies present in a community shift across succession. We calculated demographic rates for >500 tree species while controlling for canopy status to compare demographic diversity (i.e., the ranges of demographic strategies) in early successional (0-30 years), late successional (30-120 years) and old-growth forests using two-dimensional hypervolumes of pairs of demographic rates. Ranges of demographic strategies largely overlapped across successional stages, and early successional stages already covered the full spectrum of demographic strategies found in old-growth forests. An exception was a group of species characterized by exceptionally high mortality rates that was confined to early successional stages in the two wet forests. The range of demographic strategies did not expand with succession. Our results suggest that studies of long-term forest monitoring plots in old-growth forests, from which most of our current understanding of demographic strategies of tropical tree species is derived, are surprisingly representative of demographic diversity in general, but do not replace the need for further studies in secondary forests.

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Mechanisms of grapevine resilience to a vascular disease: investigating stem radial growth, xylem development and physiological acclimation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Plant vascular diseases significantly impact crop yield worldwide. Esca is a vascular disease of grapevine found globally in vineyards which causes a loss of hydraulic conductance due to the occlusion of xylem vessels by tyloses. However, the integrated response of plant radial growth and physiology in maintaining xylem integrity in grapevine expressing esca symptoms remains poorly understood.

METHODS

We investigated the interplay between variation in stem diameter, xylem anatomy, plant physiological response and hydraulic traits in two widespread esca-susceptible cultivars, 'Sauvignon blanc' and 'Cabernet Sauvignon'. We used an original experimental design using naturally infected mature vines which were uprooted and transplanted into pots allowing for their study in a mini-lysimeter glasshouse phenotyping platform.

KEY RESULTS

Esca significantly altered the timing and sequence of stem growth periods in both cultivars, particularly the shrinkage phase following radial expansion. Symptomatic plants had a significantly higher density of occluded vessels and lower leaf and whole-plant gas exchange. Esca-symptomatic vines showed compensation mechanisms, producing numerous small functional xylem vessels later in development suggesting a maintenance of stem vascular cambium activity. Stabilization or late recovery of whole-plant stomatal conductance coincided with new healthy shoots at the top of the plant after esca symptoms plateaued.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified cropping practices, such as avoiding late-season topping, may enhance resilience in esca-symptomatic plants. These results highlight that integrating dendrometers, xylem anatomy and gas exchange provides insights into vascular pathogenesis and its effects on plant physiology.

Growth of tree (Pinus sylvestris) and shrub (Amelanchier ovalis) species is constrained by drought with higher shrub sensitivity in dry sites

We lack understanding of how variable is radial growth of coexisting tree and shrub species, and how growth is constrained by drought depending on site aridity. Here, we compared the radial growth of two widespread and coexisting species, a winter deciduous shrub (Amelanchier ovalis Medik.) and an evergreen conifer tree (Pinus sylvestris L.). We sampled four sites in Northeastern Spain subjected to different aridity levels and used dendrochronological methods to quantify growth patterns and responses to climate variables. The growth of the two species varied between regions, being lower in the driest sites. The first-order autocorrelation (growth persistence) was higher in more mesic sites but without clear differences between species. Tree and shrub growth negatively responded to elevated summer temperatures and positively to spring-summer precipitation and wet conditions. However, negative growth responses of the shrub to drought were only observed in the two driest sites in contrast to widespread responses of the tree. Abrupt growth reductions were common in the drier sites, but resilience indices show that the two species rapidly recovered pre-drought growth levels. The lower growth synchrony of the shrub as compared to the tree can be due to the multistemmed architecture, fast growth and low stature of the shrub. Besides, the high dependency of the shrub growth on summer rainfall can explain why drought limitations were only apparent in the two driest sites. In any case, results point out to the dendrochronological potential of shrubs, which is particularly relevant giving its ability to inhabit woodlands and treeless regions under harsh climatic conditions. Nevertheless, further research is required to elucidate the capacity of shrub species to tolerate drought, as well as to understand how shrubs thrive in water- and cold-limited environments.

Slower growth prior to the 2018 drought and a high growth sensitivity to previous year summer conditions predisposed European beech to crown dieback

The record-breaking drought in 2018 caused premature leaf discoloration and shedding (early browning) in many beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) dominated forests in Central Europe. However, a high degree of variability in drought response among individual beech trees was observed. While some trees were severely impacted by the prolonged water deficits and high temperatures, others remained vital with no or only minor signs of crown vitality loss. Why some beech trees were more susceptible to drought-induced crown damage than others and whether growth recovery is possible are poorly understood. Here, we aimed to identify growth characteristics associated with the variability in drought response between individual beech trees based on a sample of 470 trees in northern Switzerland. By combining tree growth measurements and crown condition assessments, we also investigated the possible link between crown dieback and growth recovery after drought. Beech trees with early browning exhibited an overall lower growth vigor before the 2018 drought than co-occurring vital beech trees. This lower vigor is mainly indicated by lower overall growth rates, stronger growth declines in the past decades, and higher growth-climate sensitivity. Particularly, warm previous year summer conditions negatively affected current growth of the early-browning trees. These findings suggest that the affected trees had less access to critical resources and were physiologically limited in their growth predisposing them to early browning. Following the 2018 drought, observed growth recovery potential corresponded to the amount of crown dieback and the local climatic water balance. Overall, our findings emphasize that beech-dominated forests in Central Europe are under increasing pressure from severe droughts, ultimately reducing the competitive ability of this species, especially on lowland sites with shallow soils and low water holding capacity.

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

Major tree species of Central European forests differ in their proportion of positive, negative, and nonstationary growth trends

Temperate forests are undergoing significant transformations due to the influence of climate change, including varying responses of different tree species to increasing temperature and drought severity. To comprehensively understand the full range of growth responses, representative datasets spanning extensive site and climatic gradients are essential. This study utilizes tree-ring data from 550 sites from the temperate forests of Czechia to assess growth trends of six dominant Central European tree species (European beech, Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, sessile and pedunculate oak) over 1990-2014. By modeling mean growth series for each species and site, and employing principal component analysis, we identified the predominant growth trends. Over the study period, linear growth trends were evident across most sites (56% increasing, 32% decreasing, and 10% neutral). The proportion of sites with stationary positive trends increased from low toward high elevations, whereas the opposite was true for the stationary negative trends. Notably, within the middle range of their distribution (between 500 and 700 m a.s.l.), Norway spruce and European beech exhibited a mix of positive and negative growth trends. While Scots pine growth trends showed no clear elevation-based pattern, silver fir and oaks displayed consistent positive growth trends regardless of site elevation, indicating resilience to the ongoing warming. We demonstrate divergent growth trajectories across space and among species. These findings are particularly important as recent warming has triggered a gradual shift in the elevation range of optimal growth conditions for most tree species and has also led to a decoupling of growth trends between lowlands and mountain areas. As a result, further future shifts in the elevation range and changes in species diversity of European temperate forests can be expected.

Heading for a fall: The fate of old wind-thrown beech trees (Fagus sylvatica) is detectable in their growth pattern

Common beech (Fagus sylvatica) is one of the most important deciduous tree species in European forests. However, climate-change-induced drought may threaten its dominant position. The Sonian Forest close to Brussels (Belgium) is home to some of the largest beech trees in the world. This UNESCO world heritage site is famous for its high density of very large beech trees as a result of its climatic suitability, fertile soil conditions, and past management. Here we utilized tree-ring data from increment cores to investigate the growth of these old and monumental beech trees, evaluating their growth trends, response to past climate, and the effect of mast years on 39 living and 16 recently wind-thrown trees. Our analysis reveals that the sampled trees were generally sensitive to spring and summer droughts but recovered quickly after such an extreme climatic event. The growth trend of living trees has remained high and only shows a slight, statistically insignificant, decline over the past 50 years. Although the overall growth rate remains strong (BAI 50 cm2/year), the past five decades have shown strong inter-annual growth variations due to frequent and more intense droughts combined with an increased frequency of mast years. We also found notable differences in growth patterns between the living trees and those that had recently been wind-thrown. While there were no significant differences between living and wind-thrown trees in response to droughts, heatwaves, or mast years when examining year-to-year growth changes, the wind-thrown trees did exhibit considerably lower overall growth rates and a significant downward trend in growth (BAI -0.57 cm2/year). This difference in growth trends has been apparent since at least the 1980s. Overall, the findings of this study can provide valuable insights for understanding the long-term dynamics of lowland beech forests and their responses to climate change.

Drought sensitivity in mesic forests heightens their vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is shifting the structure and function of global forests, underscoring the critical need to predict which forests are most vulnerable to a hotter and drier future. We analyzed 6.6 million tree rings from 122 species to assess trees' sensitivity to water and energy availability. We found that trees growing in wetter portions of their range exhibit the greatest drought sensitivity. To test how these patterns of drought sensitivity influence vulnerability to climate change, we predicted tree growth through 2100. Our results suggest that drought adaptations in arid regions will partially buffer trees against climate change. By contrast, trees growing in the wetter, hotter portions of their climatic range may experience unexpectedly large adverse impacts under climate change.

Declining Radial Growth in Major Western Carpathian Tree Species: Insights from Three Decades of Temperate Forest Monitoring

This study investigates the radial growth response of five key European forest tree species, i.e., Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Abies alba, Quercus petraea, and Pinus sylvestris, to dry years in the West Carpathians, Slovakia. Utilizing data from ICP Forests Level I plots, we identified species-specific growth declines, particularly in Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica, with milder radial growth declines for Quercus petraea and Picea abies. Abies alba exhibited a growth peak in the mid-2000s, followed by a decline in the end of the observed period. Elevation emerged as the only significant environmental predictor, explaining 3.5% of growth variability during dry periods, suggesting a potential mitigating effect. The scope of this study was limited by the complex interplay of ecological factors that influence tree growth, which vary across the ICP Forests Level I monitoring sites. Nonetheless, our findings enhance the understanding of species-specific growth responses and offer insights for the climate-smart management of temperate forests under changing conditions.

Tracking 20 years of forest demographics in east Texas, USA, using national forest inventory data

Forest resource reporting techniques primarily use the two most recent measurements for understanding forest change. Multiple remeasurements now exist within the US national forest inventory (NFI), providing an opportunity to examine long-term forest demographics. We leverage two decades of remeasurements to quantify live-dead wood demographics which can better inform estimates of resource changes in forest ecosystems. Our overall objective is to identify opportunities and gaps in tracking 20 years of forest demographics within the US NFI using east Texas as a pilot study region given its diversity of tree species, prevalence of managed conditions, frequency of disturbances, and relatively rapid change driven by a warm, humid climate. We examine growth and mortality rates, identify transitions to downed dead wood/litter and removal via harvest, and describe implications of these processes focusing on key species groups (i.e., loblolly pine, post oak, and water oak) and size classes (i.e., saplings, small and large trees). Growth and mortality rates fluctuated differently over time by species and stem sizes in response to large-scale disturbances, namely the 2011 drought in Texas. Tree-fall rates were highest in saplings and snag-fall rates trended higher in smaller trees. For removal rates, different stem sizes generally followed similar patterns within each species group. Forest demographics from the field-based US NFI are informative for identifying diffuse lagged mortality, species- and size-specific effects, and management effects. Moreover, researchers continually seek to employ ancillary data and develop new statistical methods to enhance understanding of forest resource changes from field-based inventories.

Global tree growth resilience to cold extremes following the Tambora volcanic eruption

Although the global climate is warming, external forcing driven by explosive volcanic eruptions may still cause abrupt cooling. The 1809 and 1815 Tambora eruptions caused lasting cold extremes worldwide, providing a unique lens that allows us to investigate the magnitude of global forest resilience to and recovery from volcanic cooling. Here, we show that growth resilience inferred from tree-ring data was severely impacted by cooling in high latitudes and elevations: the average tree growth decreased substantially (up to 31.8%), especially in larch forests, and regional-scale probabilities of severe growth reduction (below -2σ) increased up to 1390%. The influence of the eruptions extended longer (beyond the year 1824) in mid- than in high-latitudes, presumably due to the combined impacts of cold and drought stress. As Tambora-size eruptions statistically occur every 200-400 years, assessing their influences on ecosystems can help humankind mitigate adverse impacts on natural resources through improved management, especially in high latitude and elevation regions.

Climate-driven tree growth and mortality in the Black Forest, Germany-Long-term observations

Episodic tree mortality can be caused by various reasons. This study describes climate-driven tree mortality and tree growth in the Black Forest mountain range in Germany. It is based on a 68-year consistent data series describing the annual mortality of all trees growing in a forest area of almost 250 thousand ha. The study excludes mortality caused by storm, snow and ice, and fire. The sequence of the remaining mortality, the so-called "desiccated trees," is analyzed and compared with the sequence of the climatic water balance during the growing season and the annual radial growth of Norway spruce in the Black Forest. The annual radial growth series covers 121 years and the climatic water balance series 140 years. These unique time series enable a quantitative assessment of multidecadal drought and heat impacts on growth and mortality of forest trees on a regional spatial scale. Data compiled here suggest that the mortality of desiccated trees in the Black Forest during the last 68 years is driven by the climatic water balance. Decreasing climatic water balance coincided with an increase in tree mortality and growth decline. Consecutive hot and dry summers enhance mortality and growth decline as a consequence of drought legacies lasting several years. The sensitivity of tree growth and mortality to changes in the climatic water balance increases with the decreasing trend of the climatic water balance. The findings identify the climatic water balance as the main driver of mortality and growth variation during the 68-year observation period on a landscape-scale including a variety of different sites. They suggest that bark beetle population dynamics modify mortality rates. They as well provide evidence that the mortality during the last 140 years never was as high as in the most recent years.

Effectiveness of forest density reduction treatments for increasing drought resistance of ponderosa pine growth

As the climate changes, it is increasingly important to understand how forests will respond to drought and how forest management can influence those outcomes. In many forests that have become unnaturally dense, "restoration treatments," which decrease stand density using fire and/or mechanical thinning, are generally associated with reduced mortality during drought. However, the effects of such treatments on tree growth during drought are less clear. Previous studies have yielded apparently contradictory results, which may stem from differences in underlying aridity or drought intensity across studies. To address this uncertainty, we studied the growth of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in paired treated and untreated areas before and during the extreme California drought of 2012-2016. Our study spanned gradients in climate and tree size and found that density reduction treatments could completely ameliorate drought-driven declines in growth under some contexts, specifically in more mesic areas and in medium-sized trees (i.e., normal annual precipitation > ca. 1100 mm and tree diameter at breast height < ca. 65 cm). Treatments were much less effective in ameliorating drought-associated growth declines in the most water-limited sites and largest trees, consistent with underlying ecophysiology. In medium-sized trees and wetter sites, growth of trees in untreated stands decreased by more than 15% during drought, while treatment-associated increases in growth of 25% or more persisted during the drought. Trees that ultimately died due to drought showed greater growth reductions during drought relative to trees that survived. Our results suggest that density reduction treatments can increase tree resistance to water stress, and they highlight an important pathway for treatments to influence carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services beyond mitigating tree mortality.

Do stomata optimize turgor-driven growth? A new framework for integrating stomata response with whole-plant hydraulics and carbon balance

Every existing optimal stomatal model uses photosynthetic carbon assimilation as a proxy for plant evolutionary fitness. However, assimilation and growth are often decoupled, making assimilation less ideal for representing fitness when optimizing stomatal conductance to water vapor and carbon dioxide. Instead, growth should be considered a closer proxy for fitness. We hypothesize stomata have evolved to maximize turgor-driven growth, instead of assimilation, over entire plants' lifetimes, improving their abilities to compete and reproduce. We develop a stomata model that dynamically maximizes whole-stem growth following principles from turgor-driven growth models. Stomata open to assimilate carbohydrates that supply growth and osmotically generate turgor, while stomata close to prevent losses of turgor and growth due to negative water potentials. In steady state, the growth optimization model captures realistic stomatal, growth, and carbohydrate responses to environmental cues, reconciles conflicting interpretations within existing stomatal optimization theories, and explains patterns of carbohydrate storage and xylem conductance observed during and after drought. Our growth optimization hypothesis introduces a new paradigm for stomatal optimization models, elevates the role of whole-plant carbon use and carbon storage in stomatal functioning, and has the potential to simultaneously predict gross productivity, net productivity, and plant mortality through a single, consistent modeling framework.

Field Investigation into Tree Fates from Recent Apple Tree Decline: Abrupt Hydraulic Failure Versus Gradual Hydraulic Loss

In the last decade, a sporadic tree health syndrome affecting high-density apple plantings in North America has become known as Rapid Apple Decline (RAD) or Sudden Apple Decline (SAD). The affected apple trees were typically grafted on small dwarfing rootstocks, often displayed necrosis at the graft union, and suffered from sudden mortality that occurred over 2–3 weeks amid the growing season or a gradual decline. In 2019 and 2020, we conducted a multi-site investigation in the south Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to assess the stem hydraulic characteristics, stomatal conductance, leaf δ13C‰, and fruit dry matter accumulation of the declining trees during disease progression. In trees that died, mortality appeared to be associated with severe disruption in xylem water transport at the damaged graft union, followed by abrupt hydraulic failure. In contrast, symptomatic trees that did not die exhibited the moderately declined plant water relations and a reduction in fruit dry matter accumulation followed by either further deterioration or eventual recovery. This pattern indicates the risk of carbohydrate depletion over gradual hydraulic decline and the importance of timely horticultural remedies. In the present study, we discuss potential horticultural practices to mitigate hydraulic dysfunctions and enhance crop tolerance.

Did the 2018 megadrought change the partitioning of growth between tree sizes and species? A Swiss case-study

By killing or weakening trees, drought could change the partitioning of growth between tree sizes or species, thereby altering stand structure. Growth partitioning, often quantified using the growth dominance coefficient (DC) or the shape of tree size versus growth relationships (SGR), indicates the relative contribution of differently sized trees to the total stand growth. Changes in growth partitioning due to droughts are rarely examined but provide valuable information that links tree- and stand-level responses to droughts. The objective of this study was to test whether the 2018 European megadrought altered the growth partitioning among tree sizes and species. For this purpose, we first evaluated whether DC or SGR can be calculated from small sample sizes of trees typical of individual forest inventory plots. DC, and particularly SGR, were sensitive to sample size, forest type (even-aged and uneven-aged), target variable (tree diameter, basal area or stem mass) and range of tree sizes within the sample. SGR could therefore not be used for our analyses. We found no differences in DC prior to and during the 2018 drought. However, when considering only beech (Fagus sylvatica)-dominated stands, DC was lower during post-drought years than during the 2018 drought. The growth of larger trees, especially beech, was more negatively affected during post-drought years. Therefore, an extreme drought event can indeed alter the growth partitioning within forest stands. The DC indicates such changes in partitioning and, hence, which trees can be selected for commercial thinning, or released from competition, to minimize potential impacts of droughts.

Ecophysiological responses of Nothofagus obliqua forests to recent climate drying across the Mediterranean-Temperate biome transition in south-central Chile

The forests of south-central Chile are facing a drying climate and a megadrought that started in 2010. This study addressed the physiological responses of five Nothofagus obliqua stands across the Mediterranean-Temperate gradient (35.9 ° -40.3° S) using carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³ C) and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in tree rings during 1967-2017. Moreover, δ¹⁸O was evaluated in the northernmost site to better understand the effects of the megadrought in this drier location. These forests have become more efficient in their use of water. However, trees from the densest stand are discriminating more against ¹³C, probably due to reduced photosynthetic rates associated with increasing competition. The strongest associations between climate and Δ¹³C were found in the northernmost stand, suggesting that warmer and drier conditions could have reduced ¹³C discrimination. Tree growth in this site has not decreased, and δ¹⁸O was negatively related to annual rainfall. However, a shift in this relationship was found since 2007, when both precipitation and δ¹⁸O decreased, while correlations between δ¹⁸O and growth increased. This implies that tree growth and δ¹⁸O are coupled in recent years, but precipitation is not the cause, suggesting that trees probably changed their water source to deeper and more depleted pools. Our research demonstrates that forests are not reducing their growth in central Chile, mainly due to a shift towards the use of deeper water sources. Despite a common climate trend across the gradient, there is a non-uniform response of N. obliqua forests to climate drying, being their response site specific. Keywords: Tree rings, stable isotopes, tree physiology, climate gradient, megadrought, climate change.

European beech dieback after premature leaf senescence during the 2018 drought in northern Switzerland

During the particularly severe hot summer drought in 2018, widespread premature leaf senescence was observed in several broadleaved tree species in Central Europe, particularly in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). For beech, it is yet unknown whether the drought evoked a decline towards tree mortality or whether trees can recover in the longer term. In this study, we monitored crown dieback, tree mortality and secondary drought damage symptoms in 963 initially live beech trees that exhibited either premature or normal leaf senescence in 2018 in three regions in northern Switzerland from 2018 to 2021. We related the observed damage to multiple climate- and stand-related parameters. Cumulative tree mortality continuously increased up to 7.2% and 1.3% in 2021 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence in 2018, respectively. Mean crown dieback in surviving trees peaked at 29.2% in 2020 and 8.1% in 2019 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence, respectively. Thereafter, trees showed first signs of recovery. Crown damage was more pronounced and recovery was slower for trees that showed premature leaf senescence in 2018, for trees growing on drier sites, and for larger trees. The presence of bleeding cankers peaked at 24.6% in 2019 and 10.7% in 2020 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence, respectively. The presence of bark beetle holes peaked at 22.8% and 14.8% in 2021 for trees with premature and normal leaf senescence, respectively. Both secondary damage symptoms occurred more frequently in trees that had higher proportions of crown dieback and/or showed premature senescence in 2018. Our findings demonstrate context-specific differences in beech mortality and recovery reflecting the importance of regional and local climate and soil conditions. Adapting management to increase forest resilience is gaining importance, given the expected further beech decline on dry sites in northern Switzerland.

Management alters drought-induced mortality patterns in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests

The high tree mortality during the dry and hot years of 2018-2019 in Europe has triggered concerns on the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests under climate change and raised questions as to whether forest management may increase tree mortality. We compared long-term mortality rates of beech between managed and unmanaged stands including the years 2018-2019 at 11 sites in Hesse, Germany. We hypothesized that mortality would increase with climate water deficits during the growing season, initial stand density, decreasing dominance of trees, and decreasing intensity of tree removals. Initial stand density, tree removals, the climate water balance and the competitive status of trees were used as predictor variables. Mean annual natural mortality rates ranged between 0.5% and 2.1%. Even in the drought years, we observed no signs of striking canopy disintegration. The significantly higher mortality (1.6-2.1%) in unmanaged stands during the drought years 2018 and 2019 was largely confined to suppressed trees. There was no significant increase of mortality in managed stands during the drought years, but a shift in mortality towards larger canopy trees. Our study did not confirm a general influence of management, in the form of tree removals, on mortality rates. Yet, we found that during drought years, management changed the distribution of mortality within the tree community. To analyse the effects of management on mortality rates more comprehensively, a wider gradient in site moisture conditions, including sites drier than in this study, and longer post-drought periods should be employed.

Recovery after long-term summer drought: Hydraulic measurements reveal legacy effects in trunks of Picea abies but not in Fagus sylvatica

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of summer droughts. Sufficient drought resistance, the ability to acclimate to and/or recover after drought, is thus crucial for forest tree species. However, studies on the hydraulics of mature trees during and after drought in natura are scarce. In this study, we analysed trunk water content (electrical resistivity: ER) and further hydraulic (water potential, sap flow density, specific hydraulic conductivity, vulnerability to embolism) as well as wood anatomical traits (tree ring width, conduit diameter, conduit wall reinforcement) of drought-stressed (artificially induced summer drought via throughfall-exclusion) and unstressed Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica trees. In P. abies, ER indicated a strong reduction in trunk water content after 5 years of summer drought, corresponding to significantly lower pre-dawn leaf water potential and xylem sap flow density. Vulnerability to embolism tended to be higher in drought-stressed trees. In F. sylvatica, only small differences between drought-stressed and control trees were observed. Re-watering led to a rapid increase in water potentials and xylem sap flow of both drought-stressed trees, and to increased growth rates in the next growing season. ER analyses revealed lower trunk water content in P. abies trees growing on throughfall-exclusion plots even 1 year after re-watering, indicating a limited capacity to restore internal water reserves. Results demonstrated that P. abies is more susceptible to recurrent summer drought than F. sylvatica, and can exhibit long-lasting and pronounced legacy effects in trunk water reserves.

Local groundwater decline exacerbates response of dryland riparian woodlands to climatic drought

Dryland riparian woodlands are considered to be locally buffered from droughts by shallow and stable groundwater levels. However, climate change is causing more frequent and severe drought events, accompanied by warmer temperatures, collectively threatening the persistence of these groundwater dependent ecosystems through a combination of increasing evaporative demand and decreasing groundwater supply. We conducted a dendro-isotopic analysis of radial growth and seasonal (semi-annual) carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³ C) to investigate the response of riparian cottonwood stands to the unprecedented California-wide drought from 2012 to 2019, along the largest remaining free-flowing river in Southern California. Our goals were to identify principal drivers and indicators of drought stress for dryland riparian woodlands, determine their thresholds of tolerance to hydroclimatic stressors, and ultimately assess their vulnerability to climate change. Riparian trees were highly responsive to drought conditions along the river, exhibiting suppressed growth and strong stomatal closure (inferred from reduced Δ¹³ C) during peak drought years. However, patterns of radial growth and Δ¹³ C were quite variable among sites that differed in climatic conditions and rate of groundwater decline. We show that the rate of groundwater decline, as opposed to climate factors, was the primary driver of site differences in drought stress, and trees showed greater sensitivity to temperature at sites subjected to faster groundwater decline. Across sites, higher correlation between radial growth and Δ¹³ C for individual trees, and higher inter-correlation of Δ¹³ C among trees were indicative of greater drought stress. Trees showed a threshold of tolerance to groundwater decline at 0.5 m year^-1 beyond which drought stress became increasingly evident and severe. For sites that exceeded this threshold, peak physiological stress occurred when total groundwater recession exceeded ~3 m. These findings indicate that drought-induced groundwater decline associated with more extreme droughts is a primary threat to dryland riparian woodlands and increases their susceptibility to projected warmer temperatures.

Contemporary tree growth shows altered climate memory

Trees are long-lived organisms, exhibiting temporally complex growth arising from strong climatic "memory." But conditions are becoming increasingly arid in the western USA. Using a century-long tree-ring network, we find altered climate memory across the entire range of a widespread western US conifer: growth is supported by precipitation falling further into the past (+15 months), while increasingly impacted by more recent temperature conditions (-8 months). Tree-ring datasets can be biased, so we confirm altered climate memory in a second, ecologically-sampled tree-ring network. Predicted drought responses show trees may have also become more sensitive to repeat drought. Finally, plots near sites with relatively longer precipitation memory and shorter temperature memory had significantly lower recent mortality rates (R²  = 0.61). We argue that increased drought frequency has altered climate memory, demonstrate how non-stationarity may arise from failure to account for memory, and suggest memory length may be predictive of future tree mortality.

Genetic basis of growth reaction to drought stress differs in contrasting high-latitude treeline ecotones of a widespread conifer

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of drought events in many boreal forests. Trees are sessile organisms with a long generation time, which makes them vulnerable to fast climate change and hinders fast adaptations. Therefore, it is important to know how forests cope with drought stress and to explore the genetic basis of these reactions. We investigated three natural populations of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska, located at one drought-limited and two cold-limited treelines with a paired plot design of one forest and one treeline plot. We obtained individual increment cores from 458 trees and climate data to assess dendrophenotypes, in particular the growth reaction to drought stress. To explore the genetic basis of these dendrophenotypes, we genotyped the individual trees at 3000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and performed genotype-phenotype association analysis using linear mixed models and Bayesian sparse linear mixed models. Growth reaction to drought stress differed in contrasting treeline populations. Therefore, the populations are likely to be unevenly affected by climate change. We identified 40 genes associated with dendrophenotypic traits that differed among the treeline populations. Most genes were identified in the drought-limited site, indicating comparatively strong selection pressure of drought-tolerant phenotypes. Contrasting patterns of drought-associated genes among sampled sites and in comparison to Canadian populations in a previous study suggest that drought adaptation acts on a local scale. Our results highlight genes that are associated with wood traits which in turn are critical for the establishment and persistence of future forests under climate change.

The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long-term forest dynamics

To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models of forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such models are now available for 50 years, but the currently existing diversity of model formulations and its evolution over time are poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments of structural uncertainties in model-based studies.We conducted a meta-analysis of 28 models, focusing on models that were used in the past five years for climate change studies. We defined 52 model attributes in five groups (basic assumptions, growth, regeneration, mortality and soil moisture) and characterized each model according to these attributes. Analyses of model complexity and diversity included hierarchical cluster analysis and redundancy analysis.Model complexity evolved considerably over the past 50 years. Increases in complexity were largest for growth processes, while complexity of modelled establishment processes increased only moderately. Model diversity was lowest at the global scale, and highest at the landscape scale. We identified five distinct clusters of models, ranging from very simple models to models where specific attribute groups are rendered in a complex manner and models that feature high complexity across all attributes.Most models in use today are not balanced in the level of complexity with which they represent different processes. This is the result of different model purposes, but also reflects legacies in model code, modelers' preferences, and the 'prevailing spirit of the epoch'. The lack of firm theories, laws and 'first principles' in ecology provides high degrees of freedom in model development, but also results in high responsibilities for model developers and the need for rigorous model evaluation. Synthesis. The currently available model diversity is beneficial: convergence in simulations of structurally different models indicates robust projections, while convergence of similar models may convey a false sense of certainty. The existing model diversity-with the exception of global models-can be exploited for improved projections based on multiple models. We strongly recommend balanced further developments of forest models that should particularly focus on establishment and mortality processes, in order to provide robust information for decisions in ecosystem management and policymaking.

No xylem phenotypic plasticity in mature Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica trees after 5 years of throughfall precipitation exclusion

Forest trees are experiencing increasing frequency and intensity of drought events with climate change. We investigated xylem and phloem traits from mature Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies trees after 5 years of complete exclusion of throughfall precipitation during the growing season. Xylem and phloem anatomy, leaf and branch biomass were analysed along top branches of ~1.5 m lenght in 5 throughfall precipitation excluded (TE) and 5 control (CO) trees of both beech and spruce. Xylem traits were analysed on wood cores extracted from the stem at breast height. In the top branches of both species, the lumen diameter (or area) of xylem and phloem conduits did not differ between TE and CO trees. At breast height, TE trees of both species produced narrower xylem rings and conduits. While allocation to branch (BM) and needle biomass (LM) did not change between TE and CO in P. abies, TE F. sylvatica trees allocated proportionally more biomass to leaves (LM) than BM compared with CO. Despite artificial drought increased the mortality in the TE plots, our results revealed no changes in both xylem and phloem anatomies, undermining the hypothesis that successful acclimation to drought would primarily involve increased resistance against air embolism.

Linking the growth patterns of coniferous species with their performance under climate aridization

Tree growth is highly sensitive to water deficit. At the same time, growth processes substantially influence tree performance under water stress by changing the root-absorbing surface, leaf-transpiring surface, amount of conducting xylem, etc. Drought-induced growth suppression is often higher in conifers than in broadleaf species. This review is devoted to the relations between the growth of coniferous plants and their performance under increasing climate aridization in the temperate and boreal zones of the Northern Hemisphere. For adult trees, available evidence suggests that increasing the frequency and severity of water deficit would be more detrimental to those plants that have higher growth in favorable conditions but decrease growth more prominently under water shortage, compared to trees whose growth is less sensitive to moisture availability. Not only the overall sensitivity of growth processes to water supply but also the asymmetry in response to lower-than-average and higher-than-average moisture conditions can be important for the performance of coniferous trees under upcoming adverse climate change. To fully understand the tree response under future climate change, the responses to both drier and wetter years need to be analyzed separately. In coniferous seedlings, more active growth is usually linked with better drought survival, although physiological reasons for such a link can be different. Growth stability under exacerbating summer water deficit in coniferous plants can be maintained by more active spring growth and/or by a bimodal growth pattern; each strategy has specific advantages and drawbacks. The optimal choice of growth strategy would be critical for future reforestation programs.

Tree characteristics and drought severity modulate the growth resilience of natural Mongolian pine to extreme drought episodes

Global climate change and the increase in the frequency and intensity of drought have led to widespread forest decline and tree mortality. Studying the resilience components of tree growth to drought, including resistance (R_t), recovery (R_c), and resilience (R_s) and the influencing factors, helps assess forests' production and ecological stability under a changing climate. This study analyzed the responses of three resilience components of natural Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) to drought events by examining individual-tree characteristics in two sites of Hulunbuir using the linear mixed effect model. The result showed that drought severity, diameter at breast height (dbh), pre-drought growth, and growth variability prior to drought had significant effects on the three resilience components of Mongolian pine growth. Specifically, as drought severity, dbh and growth variability increased, the R_t and R_s decreased, but R_c increased, showing a trade-off relationship with R_t. However, the R_t, R_c, and R_s decreased with pre-drought growth. Inter-tree competition and tree age also significantly impacted two resilience components. Besides, the interaction term between tree competition and tree age negatively affects R_t and R_s but positively affects R_c. Our findings highlight the influence of drought severity and individual-tree characteristics on drought resilience components, which can serve the adaptive management of natural Mongolian pine forests in the future.

Post-drought conditions and hydraulic dysfunction determine tree resilience and mortality across Mediterranean Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) populations after an extreme drought event

Drought-related tree mortality is a global phenomenon that currently affects a wide range of forests. Key functional variables on plant hydraulics, carbon economy, growth and allocation have been identified and play a role in tree drought responses. However, tree mortality thresholds based on such variables are difficult to identify, especially under field conditions. We studied several Aleppo pine populations differently affected by an extreme drought event in 2014, with mortality rates ranging from no mortality to 90% in the most severely affected population. We hypothesized that mortality is linked with high levels of xylem embolism, i.e., hydraulic dysfunction, which would also lead to lower tree resistance to drought in subsequent years. Despite not finding any differences among populations in the vulnerability curves to xylem embolism, there were large differences in the hydraulic safety margin (HSM) and the hydraulic dysfunction level. High mortality rates were associated with a negative HSM when xylem embolism reached values over 60%. We also found forest weakening and post-drought mortality related to a low hydraulic water transport capacity, reduced plant growth, low carbohydrate contents and high pest infestation rates. Our results highlight the importance of drought severity and the hydraulic dysfunction level on pine mortality, as well as post-drought conditions during recovery processes.

Tree growth response to drought partially explains regional-scale growth and mortality patterns in Iberian forests

Tree-ring data has been widely used to inform about tree growth responses to drought at the individual scale, but less is known about how tree growth sensitivity to drought scales up driving changes in forest dynamics. Here, we related tree-ring growth chronologies and stand-level forest changes in basal area from two independent data sets to test if tree-ring responses to drought match stand forest dynamics (stand basal area growth, ingrowth, and mortality). We assessed if tree growth and changes in forest basal area covary as a function of spatial scale and tree taxa (gymnosperm or angiosperm). To this end, we compared a tree-ring network with stand data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory. We focused on the cumulative impact of drought on tree growth and demography in the period 1981-2005. Drought years were identified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their impacts on tree growth by quantifying tree-ring width reductions. We hypothesized that forests with greater drought impacts on tree growth will also show reduced stand basal area growth and ingrowth and enhanced mortality. This is expected to occur in forests dominated by gymnosperms on drought-prone regions. Cumulative growth reductions during dry years were higher in forests dominated by gymnosperms and presented a greater magnitude and spatial autocorrelation than for angiosperms. Cumulative drought-induced tree growth reductions and changes in forest basal area were related, but initial stand density and basal area were the main factors driving changes in basal area. In drought-prone gymnosperm forests, we observed that sites with greater growth reductions had lower stand basal area growth and greater mortality. Consequently, stand basal area, forest growth, and ingrowth in regions with large drought impacts was significantly lower than in regions less impacted by drought. Tree growth sensitivity to drought can be used as a predictor of gymnosperm demographic rates in terms of stand basal area growth and ingrowth at regional scales, but further studies may try to disentangle how initial stand density modulates such relationships. Drought-induced growth reductions and their cumulative impacts have strong potential to be used as early-warning indicators of regional forest vulnerability.

The role of nutritional impairment in carbon-water balance of silver fir drought-induced dieback

Rear-edge populations at the xeric distribution limit of tree species are particularly vulnerable to forest dieback triggered by drought. This is the case of silver fir (Abies alba) forests located in Southwestern Europe. While silver fir drought-induced dieback patterns have been previously explored, information on the role played by nutritional impairment is lacking despite its potential interactions with tree carbon-water balances. We performed a comparative analysis of radial growth, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸ O) and nutrient concentrations in leaves of declining (DD) and non-declining (ND) trees in silver fir in four forests in the Spanish Pyrenees. We also evaluated the relationships among dieback predisposition, intraspecific trait variation (wood density and leaf traits) and rhizosphere soil physical-chemical properties. The onset of growth decline in DD trees occurred more than two decades ago, and they subsequently showed low growth resilience against droughts. The DD trees presented consistently lower foliar concentrations of nutrients such as P, K, Cu and Ni than ND trees. The strong effects of foliar nutrient status on growth resilience indices support the key role played by mineral nutrition in tree functioning and growth before, during and after drought. In contrast, variability in wood density and leaf morphological traits, as well as soil properties, showed weak relationships with tree nutritional status and drought performance. At the low elevation, warmer sites, DD trees showed stronger climate-growth relationships and lower δ¹⁸ O than ND trees. The uncoupling between iWUE and δ¹⁸ O, together with the positive correlations between P and K leaf concentrations and δ¹⁸ O, point to deeper soil/bedrock water sources and vertical decoupling between nutrient and water uptake in DD trees. This study provides novel insights into the mechanisms driving silver fir dieback and highlights the need to incorporate tree nutrition into forest dieback studies.

Paired analysis of tree ring width and carbon isotopes indicates when controls on tropical tree growth change from light to water limitations

Light and water availability are likely to vary over the lifespan of closed-canopy forest trees, with understory trees experiencing greater limitations to growth by light and canopy trees greater limitation due to drought. As drought and shade have opposing effects on isotope discrimination (Δ13C), paired measurement of ring width and Δ13C can potentially be used to differentiate between water and light limitations on tree growth. We tested this approach for Cedrela trees from three tropical forests in Bolivia and Mexico that differ in rainfall and canopy structure. Using lifetime ring width and Δ13C data for trees of up to and over 200 years old, we assessed how controls on tree growth changed from understory to the canopy. Growth and Δ13C are mostly anti-correlated in the understory, but this anti-correlation disappeared or weakened when trees reached the canopy, especially at the wettest site. This indicates that understory growth variation is controlled by photosynthetic carbon assimilation due to variation in light levels. Once trees reached the canopy, inter-annual variation in growth and Δ13C at one of the dry sites showed positive correlations, indicating that inter-annual variation in growth is driven by variation in water stress affecting stomatal conductance. Paired analysis of ring widths and carbon isotopes provides significant insight in what environmental factors control growth over a tree's life; strong light limitations for understory trees in closed-canopy moist forests switched to drought stress for (sub)canopy trees in dry forests. We show that combined isotope and ring width measurements can significantly improve our insights in tree functioning and be used to disentangle limitations due to shade from those due to drought.

Wood density and hydraulic traits influence species' growth response to drought across biomes

Tree species display a wide variety of water-use strategies, growth rates and capacity to tolerate drought. However, if we want to forecast species capacity to cope with increasing aridity and drought, we need to identify which measurable traits confer resilience to drought across species. Here, we use a global tree ring network (65 species; 1931 site series of ring-width indices-RWI) to evaluate the relationship of long-term growth-drought sensitivity (RWI-SPEI drought index relationship) and short-term growth response to extreme drought episodes (resistance, recovery and resilience indices) with functional traits related to leaf, wood and hydraulic properties. Furthermore, we assess the influence of climate (temperature, precipitation and climatic water deficit) on these trait-growth relationships. We found a close correspondence between the long-term relationship between RWI and SPEI and resistance and recovery of tree growth to severe drought episodes. Species displaying a stronger RWI-SPEI relationship to drought and low resistance and high recovery to extreme drought episodes tended to have a higher wood density (WD) and more negative leaf minimum water potential (Ψmin). Such associations were largely maintained when accounting for direct climate effects. Our results indicate that, at a cross-species level and global scale, wood and hydraulic functional traits explain species' growth responses to drought at short- and long-term scales. These trait-growth response relationships can improve our understanding of the cross-species capacity to withstand climate change and inform models to better predict drought effects on forest ecosystem dynamics.

Robust Satellite-Based Identification and Monitoring of Forests Having Undergone Climate-Change-Related Stress

Climate-induced drought events are responsible for forest decline and mortality in different areas of the world. Forest response to drought stress periods may be different, in time and space, depending on vegetation type and local factors. Stress analysis may be carried out by using field methods, but the use of remote sensing may be needed to highlight the effects of climate-change-induced phenomena at a larger spatial and temporal scale. In this context, satellite-based analyses are presented in this work to evaluate the drought effects during the 2000s and the possible climatological forcing over oak forests in Southern Italy. To this aim, two approaches based on the well-known Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used: one based on NDVI values, averaged over selected decaying and non-decaying forests; another based on the Robust Satellite Techniques (RST). The analysis of the first approach mainly gave us overall information about 1984–2011 rising NDVI trends, despite a general decrease around the 2000s. The second, more refined approach was able to highlight a different drought stress impact over decaying and non-decaying forests. The combined use of the RST-based approach, Landsat satellite data, and Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform allowed us to identify in space domain and monitor over time significant oak forest changes and climate-driven effects (e.g., in 2001) from the local to the Basilicata region scale. By this way, the decaying status of the Gorgoglione forest was highlighted two years before the first visual field evidence (e.g., dryness of apical branches, bark detachment, root rot disease). The RST exportability to different satellite sensors and vegetation types, the availability of suitable satellite data, and the potential of GEE suggest the possibility of long-term monitoring of forest health, from the local to the global scale, to provide useful information to different end-user classes.

Higher tree diversity is linked to higher tree mortality

Examining the relationship between tree diversity and ecosystem functioning has been a recent focus of forest ecology. Particular emphasis has been given to the impact of tree diversity on productivity and to its potential to mitigate negative global change effects; however, little attention has been paid to tree mortality. This is critical because both tree mortality and productivity underpin forest ecosystem dynamics and therefore forest carbon sequestration. Neglecting tree mortality leaves a large part of the picture undocumented. Here we show that increasingly diverse forest stands have increasingly high mortality probabilities. We found that the most species-rich stands in temperate biomes had mortality probabilities more than sevenfold higher than monospecific stands (∼0.6% year−1 in monospecific stands to 4.0% year−1 in the most species-rich stands) while in boreal stands increases were less pronounced but still significant (∼1.1% year−1 in monospecific stands to 1.8% year−1 in the most species-rich stands). Tree species richness was the third-most-important predictor of mortality in our models in temperate forests and the fifth-most-important predictor in boreal forests. Our results highlight that while the promotion of tree diversity undoubtedly has many positive effects on ecosystem functioning and the services that trees provide to humanity, it remains important to consider all aspects of forest dynamics in order to properly predict the implications of maintaining and promoting tree diversity.

Mutually inclusive mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality

Unprecedented tree dieback across Central Europe caused by recent global change-type drought events highlights the need for a better mechanistic understanding of drought-induced tree mortality. Although numerous physiological risk factors have been identified, the importance of two principal mechanisms, hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, is still debated. It further remains largely unresolved how the local neighborhood composition affects individual mortality risk. We studied 9435 young trees of 12 temperate species planted in a diversity experiment in 2013 to assess how hydraulic traits, carbon dynamics, pest infestation, tree height and neighborhood competition influence individual mortality risk. Following the most extreme global change-type drought since record in 2018, one third of these trees died. Across species, hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) were negatively and a shift towards a higher sugar fraction in the non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pool positively associated with mortality risk. Moreover, trees infested by bark beetles had a higher mortality risk, and taller trees a lower mortality risk. Most neighborhood interactions were beneficial, although neighborhood effects were highly species-specific. Species that suffered more from drought, especially Larix spp. and Betula spp., tended to increase the survival probability of their neighbors and vice versa. While severe tissue dehydration marks the final stage of drought-induced tree mortality, we show that hydraulic failure is interrelated with a series of other, mutually inclusive processes. These include shifts in NSC pools driven by osmotic adjustment and/or starch depletion as well as pest infestation and are modulated by the size and species identity of a tree and its neighbors. A more holistic view that accounts for multiple causes of drought-induced tree mortality is required to improve predictions of trends in global forest dynamics and to identify mutually beneficial species combinations.

Mutually inclusive mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality

Unprecedented tree dieback across Central Europe caused by recent global change-type drought events highlights the need for a better mechanistic understanding of drought-induced tree mortality. Although numerous physiological risk factors have been identified, the importance of two principal mechanisms, hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, is still debated. It further remains largely unresolved how the local neighborhood composition affects individual mortality risk. We studied 9435 young trees of 12 temperate species planted in a diversity experiment in 2013 to assess how hydraulic traits, carbon dynamics, pest infestation, tree height and neighborhood competition influence individual mortality risk. Following the most extreme global change-type drought since record in 2018, one third of these trees died. Across species, hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) were negatively and a shift towards a higher sugar fraction in the non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pool positively associated with mortality risk. Moreover, trees infested by bark beetles had a higher mortality risk, and taller trees a lower mortality risk. Most neighborhood interactions were beneficial, although neighborhood effects were highly species-specific. Species that suffered more from drought, especially Larix spp. and Betula spp., tended to increase the survival probability of their neighbors and vice versa. While severe tissue dehydration marks the final stage of drought-induced tree mortality, we show that hydraulic failure is interrelated with a series of other, mutually inclusive processes. These include shifts in NSC pools driven by osmotic adjustment and/or starch depletion as well as pest infestation and are modulated by the size and species identity of a tree and its neighbors. A more holistic view that accounts for multiple causes of drought-induced tree mortality is required to improve predictions of trends in global forest dynamics and to identify mutually beneficial species combinations.

Satellite data reveal differential responses of Swiss forests to unprecedented 2018 drought

Extreme events such as the summer drought of 2018 in Central Europe are projected to occur more frequently in the future and may cause major damages including increased tree mortality and negative impacts on forest ecosystem services. Here, we quantify the response of >1 million forest pixels of 10 × 10 m across Switzerland to the 2018 drought in terms of resistance, recovery, and resilience. We used the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data as a proxy for canopy water content and analyzed its relative change. We calculated NDWI change between the 2017 pre-drought and 2018 drought years (indicating resistance), 2018 and the 2019 post-drought (indicating recovery), and between 2017-2019 (indicating resilience). Analyzing the data from this large natural experiment, we found that for 4.3% of the Swiss forest the NDWI declined between 2017 and 2018, indicating areas with low resistance of the forest canopy to drought effects. While roughly 50% of this area recovered, in 2.7% of the forested area NDWI continued to decline from 2018 to 2019, suggesting prolonged negative effects or delayed damage. We found differential forest responses to drought associated with site topographic characteristics and forest stand characteristics, and to a lesser extent with climatic conditions and interactions between these drivers. Low drought resistance and high recovery were most prominent at forest edges, but also on south-facing slopes and lower elevations. Tree functional type was the most important driver of drought resilience, with most of the damage in stands with high conifer abundance. Our results demonstrate the suitability of satellite-based quantification of drought-induced forest damage at high spatial resolution across large areas. Such information is important to predict how local site characteristics may impact forest vulnerability to future extreme events and help in the search for appropriate adaptation strategies.

Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth

The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.

Here the authors show that extremes in the summer jet stream position over Europe create a beech forest productivity dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe and can result in regional anomalies in forest carbon uptake and growth.

Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests

Climate change can lead to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heat waves increasing the frequency of compound events with unknown impacts on forests. Here we use two independent datasets, a compiled database of tree drought mortality events and the ICP-Forest level I plots, to study the impacts of the simultaneous occurrence of hot summers, with elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and dry years on forest defoliation and mortality across Europe. We focused on tree drought mortality and background mortality rates, and we studied their co-occurrence with compound events of hot summers and dry years. In total, 143 out of 310 mortality events across Europe, i.e. 46% of cases, corresponded with rare compound events characterized by hot summers and dry years. Over the past decades, summer temperature increased in most sites and severe droughts resulted in compound events not observed before the 1980s. From the ICP-Forest plots we identified 291 (1718 trees) and 61 plots (128 trees) where severe defoliation and mortality, respectively, were caused by drought. The analyses of these events showed that 34% and 27% of the defoliation and mortality cases corresponded with rare compound climate events, respectively. Background mortality rates across Europe in the period 1993-2013 presented higher values in regions where summer temperature and VPD more steeply rose, where drought frequency increased. The steady increase in summer temperatures and VPD in Southern and Eastern Europe may favor the occurrence of compound events of hot summers and dry conditions. Giving that both, local and intense tree drought mortality events and background forest mortality rates, are linked to such compound events we can expect an increase in forest drought mortality in these European regions over the next decades.