Value of long-term ecological studies

Competency in invasion science: addressing stagnation challenges by promoting innovation and creative thinking

In today's ever-evolving scientific landscape, invasion science faces a plethora of challenges, such as terminological inconsistency and the rapidly growing literature corpus with few or incomplete syntheses of knowledge, which may be perceived as a stagnation in scientific progress. We explore the concept of 'competency', which is extensively debated across disciplines such as psychology, philosophy, and linguistics. Traditionally, it is associated with attributes that enable superior performance and continuous ingenuity. We propose that the concept of competency can be applied to invasion science as the ability to creatively and critically engage with global challenges. For example, competency may help develop innovative strategies for understanding and managing the multifaceted, unprecedented challenges posed by the spread and impacts of non-native species, as well as identifying novel avenues of inquiry for management. Despite notable advancements and the exponential increase in scholarly publications, invasion science still encounters obstacles such as insufficient interdisciplinary collaboration paralleled by a lack of groundbreaking or actionable scientific advancements. To enhance competency in invasion science, a paradigm shift is needed. This shift entails fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, nurturing creative and critical thinking, and establishing a stable and supportive environment for early career researchers, thereby promoting the emergence of competency and innovation. Embracing perspectives from practitioners and decision makers, alongside diverse disciplines beyond traditional ecological frameworks, can further add novel insights and innovative methodologies into invasion science. Invasion science must also address the ethical implications of its practices and engage the public in awareness and education programs. Such initiatives can encourage a more holistic understanding of invasions, attracting and cultivating competent minds capable of thinking beyond conventional paradigms and contributing to the advancement of the field in a rapidly changing world.

Disentangling the effect of space, time, and environmental and anthropogenic drivers on coastal macrobenthic β diversity in contrasting habitats over 15 years

Coastal zones are biodiversity hotspots and deliver essential ecosystem functions and services, yet they are exposed to multiple and interacting anthropogenic and environmental constraints. The individual and cumulative effects of these constraints on benthic communities, a key component of coastal ecosystems, and their variability across space and time, remains to be thoroughly quantified to guide conservation actions. Here, we explored how the presence of biogenic habitats influences the response of benthic communities to natural and anthropogenic constraints. We investigated this effect in both intertidal and subtidal habitats exposed to different pressures. We used data collected in the North-East Atlantic over 15 years (2005-2019) as part of the REBENT monitoring program, covering 38 sites of bare sediments, intertidal seagrass beds and maerl beds. We collected a range of environmental variables and proxies of anthropogenic pressures and used variation and hierarchical partitioning with redundancy analyses to estimate their relative effect on macrobenthic communities. We used descriptors modeling spatial and temporal structures (dbMEMs) to explore the scale of their effects and potential missing predictors. The selected variables explained between 53 % and 64 % of macrobenthic β diversity depending on habitat and depth. Fishing pressures, sedimentary and hydrodynamics variables stood out as the most important predictors across all habitats while proxies of anthropogenic pressures were overall more important in intertidal habitats. In the intertidal, presence of biogenic habitat strongly modulated the amount of explained variance and the identity of the selected variable. Across both tidal levels, analysis of models' residuals further indicated that biogenic habitats might mitigate the effect of extreme environmental events. Our study provides a hierarchy of the most important drivers of benthic communities across different habitats and tidal levels, emphasizing the prominence of anthropogenic pressures on intertidal communities and the role of biogenic habitats in mitigating environmental changes.

Causal network linking honey bee (Apis mellifera) winter mortality to temperature variations and Varroa mite density

Winter season is a critical time for honey bees (Apis mellifera) colonies when individual mortalities may lead to total colony losses or diminish productivity in subsequent seasons. A deeper understanding of the causes and consequences of winter mortality is required. In this study, we analyzed winter (November-March) individual bee mortality in an apiary in Central Europe from 1991 to 2023. We observed consistency in mortality times among years, but also some systematic departures from the shared trend. We distinguished four clusters of year-specific mortality trajectories. However, we found no statistically significant differences in means of spring (March-May), autumn (October), winter (November-March) temperatures, or autumn Varroa destructor density among clusters. Nevertheless, our insights into the dynamics of individual bee mortality may be important for determining critical moments during wintering when implementing additional protective measures could prove beneficial. Hypothesis-driven path analysis indicated causal links in our study system, including both direct and indirect influences. The density of V. destructor in autumn was positively related to temperature, especially in the preceding spring, but to a lesser extent also in autumn. Increased winter mortality was related to lower winter temperatures and a higher mite infestation in autumn. We found no significant effects of individual winter mortality on honey harvests in subsequent seasons. Honey harvest was determined by bee abundance in spring, and the latter, unexpectedly, was not related to winter mortality. Our study adds to accumulating evidence of the major role of weather and climatic conditions in the resilience of honey bee colonies and improves our understanding of mortality processes. We highlighted the importance of causative factors, especially seasonal temperatures and V. destructor density, and their potential as predictive indicators of individual winter mortality, bee colony fate, and honey productivity.

Socioeconomic prerequisites determine national long-term biomonitoring efforts

In the current anthropogenic era characterised by human-induced environmental changes, long-term biomonitoring has become a crucial component for understanding ecological patterns and detecting shifts in biodiversity. However, spatiotemporal inconsistencies in biomonitoring efforts hinder transboundary progress in understanding and mitigating global environmental change effectively. The International Long-Term Ecosystem Research (ILTER) network is one of the largest standardised biomonitoring initiatives worldwide, encompassing 44 countries globally, including 26 European countries that are part of the European Long-Term Ecosystem Research network (eLTER). To better understand the establishment and development of such long-term biomonitoring efforts, we analysed spatial and temporal trends within the eLTER network. Additionally, we evaluated the environmental, social, and economic factors influencing engagement in biomonitoring activities within this European network. Our findings reveal a spatial imbalance, with biomonitoring efforts concentrated in Central and Western European countries, where monitoring initiatives have typically been established for a longer duration. Furthermore, our analyses underscore the complex interplay of economic, geographic, and cultural factors in the development of long-term ecological research infrastructures. Countries with greater geographic connectivity, slower economic growth, and higher research activity are more likely to be involved in the eLTER network. The intensity of biomonitoring significantly increased with greater research investments, economic growth, and elevated levels of tourism. In contrast, it decreased in countries that are more inward-facing and exhibit a belief in their ability to control environmental outcomes independently. Addressing spatial gaps in monitoring necessitates enhanced support and funding to ensure comprehensive ecological monitoring over extended time periods. This is essential for achieving transboundary sustainability and effective biodiversity conservation in the face of global change drivers.

A greater negative impact of future climate change on vegetation in Central Asia: Evidence from trajectory/pattern analysis

In the context of global warming, vegetation changes exhibit various patterns, yet previous studies have focused primarily on monotonic changes, often overlooking the complexity and diversity of multiple change processes. Therefore, it is crucial to further explore vegetation dynamics and diverse change trajectories in this region under future climate scenarios to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of local ecosystem evolution. In this study, we established an integrated machine learning prediction framework and a vegetation change trajectory recognition framework to predict the dynamics of vegetation in Central Asia under future climate change scenarios and identify its change trajectories, thus revealing the potential impacts of future climate change on vegetation in the region. The findings suggest that various future climate scenarios will negatively affect most vegetation in Central Asia, with vegetation change intensity increasing with increasing emission trajectories. Analyses of different time scales and trend variations consistently revealed more pronounced downward trends. Vegetation change trajectory analysis revealed that most vegetation has undergone nonlinear and dramatic changes, with negative changes outnumbering positive changes and curve changes outnumbering abrupt changes. Under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the abrupt vegetation changes and curve changes are 1.7 times and 1.3 times greater, respectively, than those under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. When transitioning from lower emission pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) to higher emission pathways (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), the vegetation change trajectories shift from neutral and negative curve changes to abrupt negative changes. Across climate scenarios, the key climate factors influencing vegetation changes are mostly evapotranspiration and soil moisture, with temperature and relative humidity exerting relatively minor effects. Our study reveals the negative response of vegetation in Central Asia to climate change from the perspective of vegetation dynamics and change trajectories, providing a scientific basis for the development of effective ecological protection and climate adaptation strategies.

Long-term data reveal that grazer density mediates climatic stress in salt marshes

Understanding how climate and local stressors interact is paramount for predicting future ecosystem structure. The effects of multiple stressors are often examined in small-scale and short-term field experiments, limiting understanding of the spatial and temporal generality of the findings. Using a 22-year observational dataset of plant and grazer abundance in a southeastern US salt marsh, we analyzed how changes in drought and grazer density combined to affect plant biomass. We found: (1) increased drought severity and higher snail density both correlated with lower plant biomass; (2) drought and snail effects interacted additively; and, (3) snail effects had a threshold, with additive top-down effects only occurring when snails were present at high densities. These results suggest that the emergence of multiple stressor effects can be density dependent, and they validate short-term experimental evidence that consumers can augment environmental stress. These findings have important implications for predicting future ecosystem structure and managing natural ecosystems.

A misleading tail: A long-term study of reptile responses to multiple disturbances undermined by a change in surveying techniques

Long-term ecological monitoring is crucial to understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems, communities, and populations. Despite this, monitoring data are lacking or rare for the vast majority of biodiversity. Here we report the results of 19 years (2003-2022) of continuous annual monitoring of reptile species at Booderee National Park (BNP) on the east coast of south-eastern Australia. We tested the effects of time, habitat type, fire, and climate on detections of five reptile species. Our study revealed declines in detections of two skink species over time (Lampropholis delicata and Ctenotus taeniolatus), which we suspect was partly driven by weather conditions influencing activity of these species. We also identified broad vegetation type associations for two congeneric species with L. delicata being associated with forested sites, and Lampropholis guichenoti associated with more shrubby sites. Our results also demonstrated a clear association between Cryptophis nigrescens and L. delicata and fire, with the probabilities of detection of both species decreasing with time since fire in the short term. At about the midway point of our study (in 2011), we were forced to make a change in the way our data were collected. The change heavily influenced our findings, and so breached the integrity of the time series in our dataset. We acknowledge that a simple but crucial step to mitigate this breach would have been to conduct calibration that allowed subsequent analysis to control for a change in field survey methodology. Whilst improvements in the effectiveness of field survey methods might be possible through new technologies, it is crucial to maintain the integrity of long-term datasets as data collection continues.

Seasonal trends and population status of the highly threatened Pteropus livingstonii in the Comoros archipelago

Flying foxes of the genus Pteropus, especially those inhabiting islands, face increasing pressure from anthropogenic threats. A first step to implementing effective conservation actions is to establish monitoring projects to understand a species' population status and trend. Pteropus species are highly affected by seasonality which further requires regular, repeated, and long-term data to understand population trends, and reactions to severe weather events. In the present case study, a regular, bi-annual population census was implemented on Comoros between 2016 and 2023 for the highly threatened Livingstone's fruit bat, Pteropus livingstonii, and compared the results of standardized monitoring to historical population data. Seasonality had a large impact on the number of bats found at roost sites, with more bats present in the wet season, but the data over the past eight years revealed no significant in- or decrease in the number of bats counted on the island Anjouan. We estimated around 1,200-1,500 bats on Anjouan and 300-400 bats on Mohéli, and found that landcover type has no measurable effect on population distribution at roost sites. Our study highlights the need for long-term surveys to understand past population trends and that single counts are not sufficient to draw final conclusions of a species' status.

A new approach to geostatistical synthesis of historical records reveals capuchin spatial responses to climate and demographic change

Recent proliferation of GPS technology has transformed animal movement research. Yet, time-series data from this recent technology rarely span beyond a decade, constraining longitudinal research. Long-term field sites hold valuable historic animal location records, including hand-drawn maps and semantic descriptions. Here, we introduce a generalised workflow for converting such records into reliable location data to estimate home ranges, using 30 years of sleep-site data from 11 white-faced capuchin (Cebus imitator) groups in Costa Rica. Our findings illustrate that historic sleep locations can reliably recover home range size and geometry. We showcase the opportunity our approach presents to resolve open questions that can only be addressed with very long-term data, examining how home ranges are affected by climate cycles and demographic change. We urge researchers to translate historical records into usable movement data before this knowledge is lost; it is essential to understanding how animals are responding to our changing world.

Review and assessment of the potential restoration of ecosystem services through the implementation of the biodiversity management plans for SDG-15 localization

Effective restoration strategies play a crucial role in mitigating the environmental impact of mining and colliery activities while promoting ecological resilience and rejuvenating ecosystem services. However, many organizations find it challenging to understand and balance their efforts in restoring degraded lands. For example, their restoration plans lack clarity and overlook relevant ecosystem services. This study reviews and focuses on the potential restoration of ecosystem services at TATA Steel's Noamundi Iron Ore Mine and West Bokaro Colliery to contribute to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG-15, for localization. The approach involved assessing the number of preventive measures being implemented to restore a particular ecosystem service. Moreover, the potential of each preventive measure is to restore that ecosystem service. The findings underscore the significance of preventive measures and comprehensive restoration plans in enhancing carbon sequestration, soil fertility, habitat creation, and genetic diversity conservation. Our results showed that the impact scores and ranks of various ecosystem services demonstrate the positive effects of restoration efforts, emphasizing the importance of reestablishing forests, restoring water bodies and wetlands, and allocating land for agriculture and public use. The research provides valuable insights for decision-makers in developing sustainable land management strategies, ensuring biodiversity conservation and local communities' well-being. By prioritizing ecosystem services in restoration initiatives, stakeholders can contribute to the sustainable management of natural resources and foster a harmonious coexistence between human activities and the environment.

Recolonization of secondary forests by a locally extinct Caribbean anole through the lens of range expansion theory

Disturbance and recovery dynamics are characteristic features of many ecosystems. Disturbance dynamics are widely studied in ecology and conservation biology. Still, we know less about the ecological processes that drive ecosystem recovery. The ecological processes that mediate ecosystem recovery stand at the intersection of many theoretical frameworks. Range expansion theory is one of these complementary frameworks that can provide unique insights into the population-level processes that mediate ecosystem recovery, particularly fauna recolonization. Although the biodiversity patterns that follow the fauna recolonization of recovering forests have been well described in the literature, the ecological processes at the population level that drive these patterns remain conspicuously unknown. In this study, we tested three fundamental predictions of range expansion theory during the recolonization of recovering forests in Puerto Rico by a shade specialist anole, Anolis gundlachi. Range expansion theory predicts that individuals at the early stages of recolonization (i.e., younger forests) would have a high prevalence of dispersive traits, experience less density dependence, and suffer less parasitism. To test these predictions, we conducted a chronosequence study applying space-for-time substitution where we compared phenotypic traits (i.e., body size, body condition, and relative limb size), population density, population growth rates, and Plasmodium parasitism rates among lizard populations living in young (<30 years), mid (~40-70 years), and old-growth forests (>75 years). Lizard populations in younger forests had lower densities, higher population growth rates, and lower rates of Plasmodium parasitism compared with old-growth forests. Still, while we found that individuals had larger body sizes, and longer forelimbs in young forests in one site, this result was not consistent among sites. This suggests a potential trade-off between the traits that provide a dispersal advantage during the initial stages of recolonization and those that are advantageous to establish in novel environmental conditions. Overall, our study emphasizes the suitability of range expansion theory to describe fauna recolonization but also highlights that the ecological processes that drive recolonization are time-dependent, complex, and nuanced.

Temporal dynamics in the composition of bird communities along a gradient of farmland restoration

Revegetation plantings are a key activity in farmland restoration and are commonly assumed to support biotic communities that, with time, replicate those of reference habitats. Restoration outcomes, however, can be highly variable and difficult to predict; hence there is value in quantifying restoration success to improve future efforts. We test the expectation that, over time, revegetation will restore bird communities to match those in reference habitats; and assess whether specific planting attributes enhance restoration success. We surveyed birds in 255 sites in south-east Australia, arranged along a restoration gradient encompassing three habitat types: unrestored farmland (paddocks), revegetation plantings (comprising a chronosequence up to 52 years old) and reference habitats (remnant native vegetation). Surveys were undertaken in 2006/2007 and again in 2019, with data used to compare bird assemblages between habitat types. We also determined whether, in the intervening 12 years, bird communities in revegetation had shifted toward reference habitats on the restoration gradient. Our results showed that each habitat contained a unique bird community and that, over time, assemblages in revegetation diverged away from those in unrestored farmland and converged toward those in reference habitats. Two planting attributes influenced this transition: the bird assemblages of revegetation were more likely to have diverged away from those of unrestored farmland (with scattered mature trees) 12 years later if they were located in areas with more surrounding tree cover, and were mostly ungrazed by livestock (compared with grazed plantings). Our results highlight three key ways in which revegetation contributes to farmland restoration: (1) by supporting richer and more diverse bird assemblages than unrestored farmland, (2) by enhancing beta diversity in rural landscapes through the addition of a unique bird community, and (3) by shifting bird assemblages toward those found in reference habitats over time. However, revegetation plantings did not replicate reference habitats by ~40-50 years in our region, and complete convergence may take centuries. These findings have implications for environmental offset programs and mean that effective conservation in farmland environments depends on the retention and protection of natural and seminatural habitats as a parallel management strategy to complement restoration.

Air pollution is associated with increased incidence-rate of head and neck cancers: A nationally representative ecological study

INTRODUCTION

Early studies show conflicting findings regarding particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) exposure and development of head and neck cancers (HNC). We analyzed the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and various types of HNC in a nationally representative ecological sample.

METHODS

We determined HNC incidence in 608 US counties from 2011 to 2019 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program from the National Cancer Institute. We also collected information on sociodemographic factors from SEER and data on smoking and alcohol intake from CDC data frames (county level). PM2.5 exposure levels were estimated using satellite and meteorological data via previously validated general additive models. Flexible semi-nonparametric regression models were used to test the relationship between PM2.5 exposure levels and HNC incidence, adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic factors, and comorbidity.

RESULTS

Increased PM2.5 exposure levels were associated with higher incidence-rates of oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers controlling for confounders in our primary analyses (IRR = 1.04, 95 % CI 1.01, 1.07, p = 0.02 per 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5). This relationship was maintained after adjusting for multiple testing (Holm s method, p = 0.04) and in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (β = 0.17, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.57, p = 0.01). Increased exposure was also associated with other HNC: esophagus (IRR = 1.06, 95 % CI 1.01, 1.11, p = 0.02), lip (IRR = 1.16, 95 % CI 1.03, 1.31, p = 0.01), tonsil (IRR = 1.10, 95 % CI 1.03, 1.16, p < 0.01). However, these relationships were not maintained in secondary analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationally representative ecological study shows that increased levels of air pollution are associated with increased incidence of overall oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers in the US.

Feasibility of implementing an integrated long-term database to advance ecosystem-based management in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin

The North American Great Lakes have been experiencing dramatic change during the past half-century, highlighting the need for holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to management. To assess interest in ecosystem-based management (EBM), including the value of a comprehensive public database that could serve as a repository for the numerous physical, chemical, and biological monitoring Great Lakes datasets that exist, a two-day workshop was organized, which was attended by 40+ Great Lakes researchers, managers, and stakeholders. While we learned during the workshop that EBM is not an explicit mission of many of the participating research, monitoring, and management agencies, most have been conducting research or monitoring activities that can support EBM. These contributions have ranged from single-resource (-sector) management to considering the ecosystem holistically in a decision-making framework. Workshop participants also identified impediments to implementing EBM, including: 1) high anticipated costs; 2) a lack of EBM success stories to garner agency buy-in; and 3) difficulty in establishing common objectives among groups with different mandates (e.g., water quality vs. fisheries production). We discussed as a group solutions to overcome these impediments, including construction of a comprehensive, research-ready database, a prototype of which was presented at the workshop. We collectively felt that such a database would offer a cost-effective means to support EBM approaches by facilitating research that could help identify useful ecosystem indicators and management targets and allow for management strategy evaluations that account for risk and uncertainty when contemplating future decision-making.

Long-term monitoring of cycles in Clethrionomys rutilus in the Yukon boreal forest

Baseline studies of small rodent populations in undisturbed ecosystems are rare. We report here 50 years of monitoring and experimentation in Yukon of a dominant rodent species in the North American boreal forest, the red-backed vole Clethrionomys rutilus. These voles breed in summer, weigh 20-25 g, and reach a maximum density of 20 to 25 per ha. Their populations have shown consistent 3-4-year cycles for the last 50 years with the only change being that peak densities averaged 8/ha until 2000 and 18/ha since that year. During the last 25 years, we have measured food resources, predator numbers, and winter weather, and for 1-year social interactions, to estimate their contribution to changes in the rate of summer increase and the rate of overwinter decline. All these potential limiting factors could contribute to changes in density, and we measured their relative contributions statistically with multiple regressions. The rate of winter decline in density was related to both food supply and winter severity. The rate of summer increase was related to summer berry crops and white spruce cone production. No measure of predator numbers was related to winter or summer changes in vole abundance. There was a large signal of climate change effects in these populations. There is no density dependence in summer population growth and only a weak one in winter population declines. None of our results provide a clear understanding of what generates 3-4-year cycles in these voles, and the major missing piece may be an understanding of social interactions at high density.

How plant traits respond to and affect vertebrate and invertebrate herbivores-Are measurements comparable across herbivore types?

Despite plants realistically being affected by vertebrate and invertebrate herbivores simultaneously, fundamental differences in the ecology and evolution of these two herbivore guilds often means their impacts on plants are studied separately. A synthesis of the literature is needed to understand the types of plant traits examined and their response to, and effect on (in terms of forage selection) vertebrate and invertebrate herbivory, and to identify associated knowledge gaps. Focusing on grassland systems and species, we found 138 articles that met our criteria: 39 invertebrate, 97 vertebrate and 2 focussed on both vertebrate and invertebrate herbivores. Our study identified invertebrate focussed research, research conducted in the Southern Hemisphere and research on nondomesticated herbivores was significantly underrepresented based on our search and should be a focus of future research. Differences in study focus (trait response or trait effect), along with differences in the types of traits examined, led to limited opportunity for comparison between the two herbivore guilds. This review therefore predominantly discusses the response and effect of plant traits to each herbivore guild separately. In future studies, we suggest this review be used as a guide for trait selection, to improve comparability and the broader significance of results.

Tracking long-term shifts in non-native freshwater macroinvertebrates across three European countries

Non-native species introductions have been acknowledged as one of the main drivers of freshwater biodiversity decline worldwide, compromising provided ecosystem services and functioning. Despite growing introduction numbers of non-native species, their impacts in conjunction with anthropogenic stressors remain poorly documented. To fill this gap, we studied temporal changes in α (local scale) and γ (regional scale), as well as β (ratio between γ and α) diversity of non-native freshwater macroinvertebrate species in three European countries (the Netherlands, England and Hungary) using long-term time series data of up to 17 years (2003-2019). We further calculated four ecological and four biological trait metrics to identify changes in trait occurrences over time. We found that α and γ diversities of non-native species were increasing across all countries whereas β diversity remained stable. We did not identify any significant changes in any trait metric over time, while the predictors tested (land use, climatic predictors, site-specific factor) were similar across countries (e.g., site characteristics or climatic predictors on non-native species trends). Additionally, we projected trends of α, β, and γ diversity and trait metrics until 2040, which indicated that non-native species will decline across all countries to lower levels except in England for γ diversity and the Netherlands for α diversity where an increase was observed. Thus, our findings indicate shifts in non-native freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity at both local and regional scales in response to the various growing anthropogenic pressures. Our findings underscore the continuous dynamics of non-native species distribution, with the diversity of individual communities and overall landscapes witnessing changes. However, the differentiation in species composition between communities remains unaltered. This could have profound implications for conservation strategies and ecological management in the face of continuously changing biodiversity patterns.

Beyond a 'just add water' perspective: environmental water management for vegetation outcomes

Practitioners of environmental water management (EWM) operate within complex social-ecological systems. We sought to better understand this complexity by investigating the management of environmental water for vegetation outcomes. We conducted an online survey to determine practitioners' perspectives on EWM for non-woody vegetation (NWV) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia with regards to: i) desirable outcomes and benefits; ii) influencing factors and risks; iii) challenges of monitoring and evaluation, and iv) improving outcomes. Survey participants indicated that EWM aims to achieve outcomes by improving or maintaining vegetation attributes and the functions and values these provide. Our study reveals that EWM practitioners perceive NWV management in a holistic and highly interconnected way. Numerous influencing factors as well as risks and challenges to achieving outcomes were identified by participants, including many unrelated to water. Survey responses highlighted six areas to improve EWM for NWV outcomes: (1) flow regimes, (2) vegetation attributes, (3) non-flow drivers, (4) management-governance considerations, (5) functions and values, and (6) monitoring, evaluation and research. These suggest a need for more than 'just water' when it comes to the restoration and management of NWV. Our findings indicate more integrated land-water governance and management is urgently required to address the impacts of non-flow drivers such as pest species, land-use change and climate change. The results also indicate that inherent complexity in EWM for ecological outcomes has been poorly addressed, with a need to tackle social-ecological constraints to improve EWM outcomes.

Drone images afford more detections of marine wildlife than real-time observers during simultaneous large-scale surveys

There are many advantages to transitioning from conducting marine wildlife surveys via human observers onboard light-aircraft, to capturing aerial imagery using drones. However, it is important to maintain the validity of long-term data series whilst transitioning from observer to imagery surveys. We need to understand how the detection rates of target species in images compare to those collected from observers in piloted aircraft, and the factors influencing detection rates from each platform. We conducted trial ScanEagle drone surveys of dugongs in Shark Bay, Western Australia, covering the full extent of the drone's range (∼100 km), concurrently with observer surveys, with the drone flying above or just behind the piloted aircraft. We aimed to test the assumption that drone imagery could provide comparable detection rates of dugongs to human observers when influenced by same environmental conditions. Overall, the dugong sighting rate (i.e., count of individual dugongs) was 1.3 (95% CI [0.98-1.84]) times higher from the drone images than from the observers. The group sighting rate was similar for the two platforms, however the group sizes detected within the drone images were significantly larger than those recorded by the observers, which explained the overall difference in sighting rates. Cloud cover appeared to be the only covariate affecting the two platforms differently; the incidence of cloud cover resulted in smaller group sizes being detected by both platforms, but the observer group sizes dropped much more dramatically (by 71% (95% CI [31-88]) compared to no cloud) than the group sizes detected in the drone images (14% (95% CI [-28-57])). Water visibility and the Beaufort sea state also affected dugong counts and group sizes, but in the same way for both platforms. This is the first direct simultaneous comparison between sightings from observers in piloted aircraft and a drone and demonstrates the potential for drone surveys over a large spatial-scale.

Using ecotourism boats for estimating the abundance of a bottlenose dolphin population in south-eastern Australia

It is challenging to collect robust, long-term datasets to properly monitor the viability and social structure of large, long-lived animals, especially marine mammals. The present study used a unique long-term dataset to investigate the population parameters and social structure of a poorly studied population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) in southern Port Phillip Bay, south-eastern Australia. Photo-identification images have been collected between 2012-2022 both opportunistically and following a protocol by patrons, staff, and volunteers of ecotourism companies using their vessels as platforms. The resulting large dataset was available to be processed through the online platform Flukebook and used in capture recapture models to estimate abundance and demographic parameters. In addition, the social structure of the population and the reproductive parameters were investigated. The marked adult population abundance (45.2 ± 2.7 individuals) was found to be stable over the last decade and the calving rate ranged between 0.06-0.19 new calves per identified individuals per year, while the inter-birth interval was 3.7 ± 0.8 years. Social analysis suggested the population has a fission-fusion structure with no apparent clusters. The stability of the population over the study period suggests no deleterious effect of anthropogenic or environmental factors during the last decade. This study is the outcome of the effort of the ecotourism organisations and the results obtained, along with their similarity to those of other dolphin populations worldwide, highlight the importance of such data sources for long-term information that would otherwise be too expensive or logistically difficult to obtain.

Two decades of change in sea star abundance at a subtidal site in Puget Sound, Washington

Long-term datasets can reveal otherwise undetectable ecological trends, illuminating the historical context of contemporary ecosystem states. We used two decades (1997-2019) of scientific trawling data from a subtidal, benthic site in Puget Sound, Washington, USA to test for gradual trends and sudden shifts in total sea star abundance across 11 species. We specifically assessed whether this community responded to the sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, which began in 2013. We sampled at depths of 10, 25, 50 and 70 m near Port Madison, WA, and obtained long-term water temperature data. To account for species-level differences in SSWD susceptibility, we divided our sea star abundance data into two categories, depending on the extent to which the species is susceptible to SSWD, then conducted parallel analyses for high-susceptibility and moderate-susceptibility species. The abundance of high-susceptibility sea stars declined in 2014 across depths. In contrast, the abundance of moderate-susceptibility species trended downward throughout the years at the deepest depths- 50 and 70 m-and suddenly declined in 2006 across depths. Water temperature was positively correlated with the abundance of moderate-susceptibility species, and uncorrelated with high-susceptibility sea star abundance. The reported emergence of SSWD in Washington State in the summer of 2014 provides a plausible explanation for the subsequent decline in abundance of high-susceptibility species. However, no long-term stressors or mortality events affecting sea stars were reported in Washington State prior to these years, leaving the declines we observed in moderate-susceptibility species preceding the 2013-2015 SSWD epizootic unexplained. These results suggest that the subtidal sea star community in Port Madison is dynamic, and emphasizes the value of long-term datasets for evaluating patterns of change.

Adoption and feeding of fieldfare nestlings and fledglings by European blackbird

Interspecific adoption is an intriguing topic in behavioral and evolutionary ecology. As it is a rare phenomenon, seldom documented in the literature, reports of interspecific adoption based on solid data are particularly valuable. A long-term and extensive monitoring programme involving a local population of European blackbirds (Turdus merula, hereafter blackbird) has yielded, among other things, observations of alloparental behavior exhibited by blackbirds toward fieldfare (Turdus pilaris) nestlings (a single nest, the first-ever record) and fledglings (12 cases in all). We discuss the observations in the context of the available literature.

Delayed egg-laying in Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio in relation to increased rainfall in east-central Poland

Climate change has affected the breeding parameters of many animal species. In birds, most studies have focused on the effects of temperature on clutch phenology and clutch size. The long-term influence of other weather factors, including rainfall, on breeding parameters have been analysed much less often. Based on a 23-year dataset and 308 broods, we documented shifts in the timing of breeding, clutch size and mean egg volume in a long-distance migrant, the Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio, from a central European population. We found a 5-day shift towards delayed breeding, but no differences in brood size or egg volume during those 23 years. The GLM analysis showed that the mean May temperature had a positive influence on the clutch initiation date, whereas the number of days with rain delayed laying. During the period 1999-2021, there was no change in the mean May temperature, but total precipitation and the number of days with rain in May increased. Thus, delayed nesting in this population was probably due to the increase in rainfall during this period. Our results provide a rare example of delayed nesting in birds in recent years. Predicted changes in the climate make it difficult to assess the long-term impact of global warming on the viability of Red-backed Shrike populations in east-central Poland.

The phenotypic costs of captivity

The breeding of threatened species in captivity for release is a central tool in conservation biology. Given gloomy predictions for biodiversity trends in the Anthropocene, captive breeding will play an increasingly important role in preventing future extinctions. Relative to the wild, captive environments drastically alter selection pressures on animals. Phenotypic change in captive animals in response to these altered selection pressures can incur fitness costs post-release, jeopardising their potential contribution to population recovery. We explore the ways in which captive environments can hinder the expression of wild phenotypes. We also stress that the phenotypes of captive-bred animals differ from their wild counterparts in multiple ways that remain poorly understood. We propose five new research questions relating to the impact of captive phenotypes on reintroduction biology. With better use of monitoring and experimental reintroductions, a more robust evidence base should help inform adaptive management and minimise the phenotypic costs of captivity, improving the success of animal reintroductions.

Spatial and temporal non-stationarity in long-term population dynamics of over-wintering birds of North America

Understanding population changes across long time scales and at fine spatiotemporal resolutions is important for confronting a broad suite of conservation challenges. However, this task is hampered by a lack of quality long-term census data for multiple species collected across large geographic regions. Here, we used century-long (1919-2018) data from the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) survey to assess population changes in over 300 avian species in North America and evaluate their temporal non-stationarity. To estimate population sizes across the entire century, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for species detection probabilities, variable sampling effort, and missing data. We evaluated population trends using generalized additive models (GAMs) and assessed temporal non-stationarity in the rate of population change by extracting the first derivatives from the fitted GAM functions. We then summarized the population dynamics across species, space, and time using a non-parametric clustering algorithm that categorized individual population trends into four distinct trend clusters. We found that species varied widely in their population trajectories, with over 90% of species showing a considerable degree of spatial and/or temporal non-stationarity, and many showing strong shifts in the direction and magnitude of population trends throughout the past century. Species were roughly equally distributed across the four clusters of population trajectories, although grassland, forest, and desert specialists more commonly showed declining trends. Interestingly, for many species, region-wide population trends often differed from those observed at individual sites, suggesting that conservation decisions need to be tailored to fine spatial scales. Together, our results highlight the importance of considering spatial and temporal non-stationarity when assessing long-term population changes. More generally, we demonstrate the promise of novel statistical techniques for improving the utility and extending the temporal scope of existing citizen science datasets.

Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate

Zooplankton are major consumers of phytoplankton primary production in marine ecosystems. As such, they represent a critical link for energy and matter transfer between phytoplankton and bacterioplankton to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. In this Review, we discuss key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, including shifts in phenology, range, and body size, and assess the implications to the biological carbon pump and interactions with higher trophic levels. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps and geographic gaps in monitoring coverage that need to be urgently addressed. We also discuss an integrated sampling approach that combines traditional and novel techniques to improve zooplankton observation for the benefit of monitoring zooplankton populations and modelling future scenarios under global changes.

Exploring Old Data with New Tricks: Long-Term Monitoring Indicates Spatial and Temporal Changes in Populations of Sympatric Prairie Grouse in the Nebraska Sandhills

The contiguous grasslands of the Sandhills region in Nebraska, USA, provide habitat for two sympatric, grassland-obligate species of grouse, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) and the plains sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus jamesi). Collectively referred to as prairie grouse, these birds are monitored and managed jointly by wildlife practitioners who face the novel challenge of conserving historically allopatric species in shared range. We reconstructed region-wide and route-specific prairie grouse population trends in the Sandhills, using a 63-year timeseries of breeding ground counts aggregated from old reports and paper archives. Our objective was to repurpose historical data collected for harvest management to address questions pertinent to the conservation of prairie grouse, species whose populations have declined precipitously throughout their respective ranges. Because we cannot change the sampling protocol of historical data to answer new questions, we applied 3 different methods of data analysis—traditional regional mean counts used to adjust harvest regulations, spatially implicit, site-specific counts, and spatially explicit trends. Prairie-chicken populations have increased since the 1950s, whereas sharp-tailed grouse populations have remained stable or slightly declined. However, each species exhibited unique shifts in abundance and distribution over time, and regional indices masked important aspects of population change. Our findings indicate that legacy data have the capacity to tell new stories apart from the questions they were collected to answer. By integrating concepts from landscape ecology—a discipline that emerged decades after the collection of our count data began—we demonstrate the potential of historical data to address questions of modern-day conservation concern, using prairie grouse as a case study.

Territory and population attributes affect Florida scrub-jay fecundity in fire-adapted ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida's Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing "strong" quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long-term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.

What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.

Seed sourcing strategies for ecological restoration under climate change: A review of the current literature

Climate change continues to alter the seasonal timing and extremes of global temperature and precipitation patterns. These departures from historic conditions along with the predicted variability of future climates present a challenge to seed sourcing, or provenance strategy decisions, within the practice of ecological restoration. The “local is best” for seed sourcing paradigm is predicated upon the assumption that ecotypes are genetically adapted to their local environment. However, local adaptations are potentially being outpaced by climate change, and the ability of plant populations to naturally migrate or shift their distribution accordingly may be limited by habitat fragmentation. Restoration practitioners and natural area managers have a general understanding of the importance of matching the inherent adaptations of source populations with the current and/or future site conditions where those seeds or propagules are planted. However, for many species used in seed-based restoration, there is a lack of empirical evidence to guide seed sourcing decisions, which are critical for the longevity and ecological function of restored natural communities. With the goal of characterizing, synthesizing, and applying experimental research to guide restoration practice, we conducted a systematic review of the literature on provenance testing of taxa undertaken to inform seed sourcing strategies for climate resiliency. We found a strong bias in the choice of study organism: most studies have been conducted on tree species. We also found a strong bias regarding where this research has been conducted, with North America (52%) and Europe (31%) overrepresented. Experiments were designed to assess how propagule origin influences performance across both climatic (26%) and geographic (15%) distance, with some studies focused on determining how climate normal conditions (39%) impacted performance related to survivorship, growth and other parameters. We describe the patterns and gaps our review identified, highlight specific topics which require further research, and provide practical suggestions of immediate and longer-term tools that restoration practitioners can use to guide and build resilient natural communities under future climate scenarios.

Retrospective comparisons of competing demographic models give clarity from "messy" management on a Scottish grouse moor

Retrospective comparison of predictive models that describe competing hypotheses regarding system function can shed light on regulatory mechanisms within the framework of adaptive resource management. We applied this approach to a 28-year study of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) in Scotland, with the aims of reducing uncertainty regarding important drivers of grouse population dynamics, and of evaluating the efficacy of using seasonal versus annual model assessments. We developed three sets of models that predicted pre-breeding and post-breeding grouse density, matching the timing of grouse counts on the ground. We updated conditions and management through time in the spirit of a real-time, adaptive management program and used a Bayesian model weight updating process to compare model predictions with empirical grouse densities. The first two model sets involved single annual updates from either pre-breeding or post-breeding counts; the third set was updated twice a year. Each model set comprised seven models representing increasingly complex hypotheses regarding potentially important drivers of grouse: the baseline model included weather and parasite effects on productivity, shooting losses and density-dependent overwinter survival; subsequent models incorporated the effect of habitat gain/loss (HAB), control of non-protected predators (NPP) and predation by protected hen harriers (Circus cyaneus, HH) and buzzards (Buteo buteo, BZ). The weight of evidence was consistent across model sets, settling within 10 years on the harrier (NPP + HH), buzzard (NPP + HH + BZ) and buzzard + habitat (NPP + HH + BZ + HAB) models, and downgrading the baseline + habitat, non-protected predator, and non-protected predator + habitat models. By the end of the study only the buzzard and buzzard + habitat models retained substantial weights, emphasizing the dynamical complexity of the system. Habitat inclusion failed to improve model predictions, implying that over the period of this study habitat quantity was unimportant in determining grouse abundance. Comparing annually and biannually assessed model sets, the main difference was in the baseline model, whose weight increased or remained stable when assessed annually, but collapsed when assessed biannually. Our adaptive modeling approach is suitable for many ecological situations in which a complex interplay of factors makes experimental manipulation difficult.

Chemical Toxicants in Water: A GeoHealth Perspective in the Context of Climate Change

The editorial focuses on four major themes contextualized in a virtual GeoHealth workshop that occurred from June 14 to 16, 2021. Topics in that workshop included drinking water and chronic chemical exposure, environmental injustice, public health and drinking water policy, and the fate, transport, and human impact of aqueous contaminants in the context of climate change. The intent of the workshop was to further define the field of GeoHealth. This workshop emphasized on chemical toxicants that drive human health. The major calls for action emerged from the workshop include enhancing community engagement, advocating for equity and justice, and training the next generation.

Predicting how environmental conditions and smolt body length when entering the marine environment impact individual Atlantic salmon Salmo salar adult return rates

Populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar have experienced precipitous declines in abundance since the 1970s. This decline has been associated with reduced numbers of adult salmon returning to fresh water from their marine migration, i.e., their marine return rates (MRR). Thus, understanding the factors that affect MRR is of crucial conservation importance. The authors used a state-space model with a 13-year time series of individually tagged salmon mark-recapture histories on the River Frome, southern England, to test the effect of smolt body length on their MRR. In addition to smolt length, the model tested for the influence of environmental covariates that were representative of the conditions experienced by the smolts in the early stages of their seaward migration, i.e., from the lower river to the estuary exit. The model indicated that, even when accounting for environmental covariates, smolt body length was an important predictor of MRR. Although larger smolts have a higher probability of returning to their natal river as adults than smaller smolts, and one-sea-winter salmon have a survival rate twice as high as multi-sea-winter salmon, the actual biological mechanisms underpinning this phenomenon remain uncertain. These results have important applications for salmon conservation, as efforts to bolster salmon populations in the freshwater environment should consider methods to improve smolt quality (i.e., body size) as well as smolt quantity.

Evaluating sources of bias in pedigree-based estimates of breeding population size

Applications of genetic-based estimates of population size are expanding, especially for species for which traditional demographic estimation methods are intractable due to the rarity of adult encounters. Estimates of breeding population size (N_S ) are particularly amenable to genetic-based approaches as the parameter can be estimated using pedigrees reconstructed from genetic data gathered from discrete juvenile cohorts, therefore eliminating the need to sample adults in the population. However, a critical evaluation of how genotyping and sampling effort influence bias in pedigree reconstruction, and how these biases subsequently influence estimates of N_S , is needed to evaluate the efficacy of the approach under a range of scenarios. We simulated a model system to understand the interactive effects of genotyping and sampling effort on error in genetic pedigrees reconstructed from the program COLONY. We then evaluated how errors in pedigree reconstruction influenced bias and precision in estimates of N_S using three different rarefaction estimators. Results indicated that pedigree error can be minimal when adequate genetic data are available, such as when juvenile sample sizes are large and/or individuals are genotyped at many informative loci. However, even in cases for which data are limited, using results of the simulation analysis to understand the magnitude and sources of bias in reconstructed pedigrees can still be informative when estimating N_S . We applied results of the simulation analysis to evaluate N ̂ $$ \hat{N} $$ _S for a population of federally endangered Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) in the Delaware River, USA. Our results indicated that N_S is likely to be three orders of magnitude lower compared with historic breeding population sizes, which is a considerable advancement in our understanding of the population status of Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. Our analyses are broadly applicable in the design and interpretation of studies seeking to estimate N_S and can help to guide conservation decisions when ecological uncertainty is high. The utility of these results is expected to grow as rapid advances in genetic technologies increase the popularity of genetic population monitoring and estimation.

Long-term changes and effects of significant fishery closures on marine survival and biological characteristics of wild and hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Long-term data, over four decades, were analysed to examine temporal trends in survival indices and phenotypic characteristics of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar returning to the Burrishoole national salmonid monitored river in Ireland. Before 2007, the marine drift net fishery was the major capture method for salmon in Irish home waters, accounting for over 70% of the commercial catch and targeting mixed stocks from multiple rivers. The authors examined size differences in fish captured in marine and freshwater environments and the impact of closure of this fishery on long-term survival indices and fish size. Return rates to Irish home waters for wild one sea-winter (1SW) and a ranching strain of hatchery-reared 1SW Atlantic salmon stocks showed a declining trend up to the time of closure of the fishery (1985-2006). In contrast, closure of the drift net fishery resulted in the anticipated increase in return rate to fresh water in the short term. Nonetheless, the short-term upward trend was not sustained in the following years: the trend for return rate to fresh water (1985-2017) was found to be neither increasing nor decreasing. Mean return rates to fresh water 10 years pre- and post-closure of the drift net fishery increased from 7.4% to 8.5% for wild 1SW and significantly from 2.4% to 3.7% for ranched 1SW suggesting some benefit had accrued as a consequence of drift net closure. For ranched 1SW salmon, entry into fresh water was found to be occurring earlier, which is likely a phenotypical response to changing climatic conditions. A declining trend in fish length was found in the pre-closure period, followed by a more stable trend post-closure. Similar patterns were observed for fish condition and weight parameters. Significantly, a step change in fish size occurred just before the closure of the Irish drift net fishery in both marine and freshwater habitats, when the average length decreased by 3.8 and 4.6 cm, respectively, between 2005 and 2006. This suggests an environmental effect on the population, rather than a fishery closure effect. Similar trends in fish length were observed in wild 1SW salmon kelts and ranched 2SW salmon in fresh water. The stable but not increasing trends post-closure suggest that conditions at sea may not be improving. These findings show that a clear decline occurred in wild and ranched salmon populations' return rates and lengths, while the drift net fishery was still active. Closure of the fishery did not result in a rebound to pre-exploitation levels of these indicators. Nonetheless, the trends went from declining to stable, suggesting the closure helped mitigate the impact of unfavourable environmental and rearing habitat conditions. These findings, based on four decades of data, highlight the urgency of strengthening monitoring of fisheries populations in face of climate change, so as to guide precautionary management measures that, as this study suggests, may be able to mitigate its impacts.

Impact of River-Reservoir Hybrid System on Zooplankton Community and River Connectivity

Anthropogenic connectivity regulation in rivers, such as via weirs and dams, affects the plankton community. We hypothesized that the longitudinal similarity of the zooplankton community in a river could change in a river–reservoir hybrid system (RRHS). The impact of weir construction on zooplankton communities in terms of species diversity, abundance, and community structure was examined biweekly at six sites on the Nakdong River for 14 years (before construction: 2002–2008; after construction: 2012–2018). We checked time-series alignment using a dynamic time-warping method between longitudinal survey sites. After RRHS, the zooplankton community showed an increasing number of species. However, RRHS decreased the longitudinal similarity in terms of number of zooplankton species and population density. Our results demonstrate the negative effect of lateral infrastructures on zooplankton populations due to river fragmentation and habitat alteration.

Increased adoption of best practices in ecological forecasting enables comparisons of forecastability

Near-term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross-ecosystem analysis of near-term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future developments for this emerging field. In this study, we analyzed 178 near-term (≤10-yr forecast horizon) ecological forecasting papers to understand the development and current state of near-term ecological forecasting literature and to compare forecast accuracy across scales and variables. Our results indicated that near-term ecological forecasting is widespread and growing: forecasts have been produced for sites on all seven continents and the rate of forecast publication is increasing over time. As forecast production has accelerated, some best practices have been proposed and application of these best practices is increasing. In particular, data publication, forecast archiving, and workflow automation have all increased significantly over time. However, adoption of proposed best practices remains low overall: for example, despite the fact that uncertainty is often cited as an essential component of an ecological forecast, only 45% of papers included uncertainty in their forecast outputs. As the use of these proposed best practices increases, near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to make significant contributions to our understanding of forecastability across scales and variables. In this study, we found that forecastability (defined here as realized forecast accuracy) decreased in predictable patterns over 1-7 d forecast horizons. Variables that were closely related (i.e., chlorophyll and phytoplankton) displayed very similar trends in forecastability, while more distantly related variables (i.e., pollen and evapotranspiration) exhibited significantly different patterns. Increasing use of proposed best practices in ecological forecasting will allow us to examine the forecastability of additional variables and timescales in the future, providing a robust analysis of the fundamental predictability of ecological variables.

The nature of privilege: intergenerational wealth in animal societies

Wealth inequality is widespread across human societies, from pastoral and small-scale agricultural groups to large modern social structures. The intergenerational transfer of wealth privileges some individuals over others through the transmission of resources external to an individual organism. Privileged access to household wealth (e.g., land, shelter, silver) positively influences the destinies of some (and their descendants) over others in human societies. Strikingly parallel phenomena exist in animal societies. Inheritance of nongenetic commodities (e.g., a nest, territory, tool) external to an individual also contributes greatly to direct fitness in animals. Here, we illustrate the evolutionary diversity of privilege and its disparity-generating effects on the evolutionary trajectories of lineages across the Tree of Life. We propose that integration of approaches used to study these patterns in humans may offer new insights into a core principle from behavioral ecology—differential access to inherited resources—and help to establish a broad, comparative framework for studying inequality in animals.

Individual decisions drive the changes in movement patterns of ground beetles between forestry management types

Moving from one habitat to another, the dispersal of individuals has consequences for their conditions, population dynamics and gene flow. Our major motivation was to explore the effects of different forestry treatments, such as preparation (partial) cuts and clear cuts, on the selected population of the forest ground beetle, Carabus coriaceus (Coleoptera: Carabidae). We tagged six individuals (three males and three females) with small radio-transmitters and each was released in the treatment habitat core, at the edges and in the core of control forests respectively. The recorded trajectories were divided into two major movement phases: a random walk and a directional movement using hidden Markov models. Our results revealed that in the core zone of preparation cuts, the random walk and the directional movement were equally distributed in the trajectory. A clear directional movement was observed in the clear cuts suggesting the beetles moved directly toward the adjacent (control) forest interior. The trajectories at the edges of both treatments were dominated by the random walk and so for the controls. These results suggest that forest ground beetles can avoid the forestry treatments especially clear cuts, however edge habitats and (the studied) preparation cuts can mitigate the migration constraints due to their more favorable environmental conditions compared to clear cuts.