Complex imprint of air pollution in the basal area increments of three European tree species

The impact of atmospheric pollution on the growth of European forest tree species, particularly European beech, Silver fir and Norway spruce, is examined in five mesic forests in the Czech Republic. Analyzing of basal area increment (BAI) patterns using linear mixed effect models reveals a complex interplay between atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) deposition, climatic variables and changing CO2 concentrations. Beech BAI responds positively to N deposition (in tandem with air CO2 concentration), with soil phosphorus (P) availability emerging as a significant factor influencing overall growth rates. Fir BAI, on the other hand, was particularly negatively influenced by S deposition, although recent growth acceleration suggests growth resilience in post-pollution period. This fir growth surge likely coincides with stimulation of P acquisition following the decline of acidic pollution. The consequence is the current highest productivity among the studied tree species. The growth dynamics of both conifers were closely linked to the stoichiometric imbalance of phosphorus in needles, indicating the possible sensitivity of exogenous controls on nutrient uptake. Furthermore, spruce BAI was positively linked to calcium availability across sites. Despite enhanced water-use efficiency under elevated CO2, spruce growth is constrained by precipitation deficit and demonstrates weakening resilience to increasing growing season air temperatures. Overall, these findings underscore the intricate relationships between atmospheric pollution, nutrient availability, and climatic factors in shaping the growth dynamics of European forest ecosystems. Thus, incorporating biogeochemical context of nutrient availability is essential for realistic modelling of tree growth in a changing climate.

Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?

A mystery has emerged as to why patterns of increasing extreme rainfall have not been accompanied by similar levels of flooding, garnering growing attention given concerns over future flood risks. Antecedent moisture conditions have been proposed as the missing explanatory factor. Yet, reasons for moisture variability prior to flooding remain largely unstudied. Here, we evaluate the potential utility of precipitation intermittency, defined as the dry spell length prior to a flood, to explain the variability of flooding over 108 watersheds from 1950 to 2022. Flood magnitude is shown to be sensitive to intermittency, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions (PET/P > 0.84) and for basins with low soil field capacity (<0.31 m3/m3). Following extended dry spells >20 days, floods are only possible from the most intense storms, whereas a wider range of storms can produce flooding for shorter intermittency. The flood probability decreases by approximately 0.5 % for each additional day of dry spell, with overall flood probabilities being up to 30 % lower following extended dry periods. These results underscore the potential utility of precipitation intermittency for diagnosing current and future flood risks.

Global-scale water security and desertification management amidst climate change

Deserts and semi-arid environments are habitats to rare species, rich cultural heritage, and essential ecological processes. Approximately 46% of the world's surface area is covered by drylands (arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas), where 3 billion people live and unfortunately witness water insecurity and desertification implications. In this context, the present study argued that reduced dryland ecosystem services and decreased ecosystem health have resulted from the individual and compounding impacts of desertification, water scarcity, and climate change. At 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, under the shared socio-economic pathway SSP2, the number of people living in drylands who will be affected by various effects on water, energy, and land sectors is projected to reach 951 million, 1152 million, and 1285 million, respectively. Due to combinations of land use change, rainfall variations, fire suppression, and CO2 fertilization, as well as unsustainable management, widespread woody encroachment has occurred in many shrublands and savannas in Africa, Australia, North America, and South America. This has altered biodiversity and reduces ecosystem services, such as water availability and grazing potential. The north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America are projected to have the most semiarid expansion. Contrarily, drylands are expected to shrink in India, northern China, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern Sahara. Growing research evidence highlights the adoption of policy frameworks deriving the solutions from soil land management (SLM), indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), early warning systems coupled with adaptation and mitigation responses, and targets of sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1-3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic-European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300-2004 CE (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 CE as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

Seasonal drought treatments impact plant and microbial uptake of nitrogen in a mixed shrub grassland on the Colorado Plateau

For many drylands, both long- and short-term drought conditions can accentuate landscape heterogeneity at both temporal (e.g., role of seasonal patterns) and spatial (e.g., patchy plant cover) scales. Furthermore, short-term drought conditions occurring over one season can exacerbate long-term, multidecadal droughts or aridification, by limiting soil water recharge, decreasing plant growth, and altering biogeochemical cycles. Here, we examine how experimentally altered seasonal precipitation regimes in a mixed shrub grassland on the Colorado Plateau impact soil moisture, vegetation, and carbon and nitrogen cycling. The experiment was conducted from 2015 to 2019, during a regional multidecadal drought event, and consisted of three precipitation treatments, which were implemented with removable drought shelters intercepting ~66% of incoming precipitation including: control (ambient precipitation conditions, no shelter), warm season drought (sheltered April-October), and cool season drought (sheltered November-March). To track changes in vegetation, we measured biomass of the dominant shrub, Ephedra viridis, and estimated perennial plant and ground cover in the spring and the fall. Soil moisture dynamics suggested that warm season experimental drought had longer and more consistent drought legacy effects (occurring two out of the four drought cycles) than either cool season drought or ambient conditions, even during the driest years. We also found that E. viridis biomass remained consistent across treatments, while bunchgrass cover declined by 25% by 2019 across all treatments, with the earliest declines noticeable in the warm season drought plots. Extractable dissolved inorganic nitrogen and microbial biomass nitrogen concentrations appeared sensitive to seasonal drought conditions, with dissolved inorganic nitrogen increasing and microbial biomass nitrogen decreasing with reduced soil volumetric water content. Carbon stocks were not sensitive to drought but were greater under E. viridis patches. Additionally, we found that under E. viridis, there was a negative relationship between dissolved inorganic nitrogen and microbial biomass nitrogen, suggesting that drought-induced increases in dissolved inorganic nitrogen may be due to declines in nitrogen uptake from microbes and plants alike. This work suggests that perennial grass plant-soil feedbacks are more vulnerable to both short-term (seasonal) and long-term (multiyear) drought events than shrubs, which can impact the future trajectory of dryland mixed shrub grassland ecosystems as drought frequency and intensity will likely continue to increase with ongoing climate change.

Environmentally persistent free radicals and other paramagnetic species in wildland-urban interface fire ashes

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires consume fuels, such as vegetation and structural materials, leaving behind ash composed primarily of pyrogenic carbon and metal oxides. However, there is currently limited understanding of the role of WUI fire ash from different sources as a source of paramagnetic species such as environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) and transition metals in the environment. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) was used to detect and quantify paramagnetic species, including organic persistent free radicals and transition metal spins, in fifty-three fire ash and soil samples collected following the North Complex Fire and the Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit (LNU) Lightning Complex Fire, California, 2020. High concentrations of organic EPFRs (e.g., 1.4 × 1014 to 1.9 × 1017 spins g-1) were detected in the studied WUI fire ash along with other paramagnetic species such as iron and manganese oxides, as well as Fe3+ and Mn2+ ions. The mean concentrations of EPFRs in various ash types decreased following the order: vegetation ash (1.1 × 1017 ± 1.1 × 1017 spins g-1) > structural ash (1.6 × 1016 ± 3.7 × 1016 spins g-1) > vehicle ash (6.4 × 1015 ± 8.6 × 1015 spins g-1) > soil (3.2 × 1015 ± 3.7 × 1015 spins g-1). The mean concentrations of EPFRs decreased with increased combustion completeness indicated by ash color; black (1.1 × 1017 ± 1.1 × 1017 spins g-1) > white (2.5 × 1016 ± 4.4 × 1016 spins g-1) > gray (1.8 × 1016 ± 2.4 × 1016 spins g-1). In contrast, the relative amounts of reduced Mn2+ ions increased with increased combustion completeness. Thus, WUI fire ash is an important global source of EPFRs and reduced metal species (e.g., Mn2+). Further research is needed to underpin the formation, transformation, and environmental and human health impacts of these paramagnetic species in light of the projected increased frequency, size, and severity of WUI fires.

Dryland self-expansion enabled by land-atmosphere feedbacks

Dryland expansion causes widespread water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Although the drying influence of global warming is well established, the role of existing drylands in their own expansion is relatively unknown. In this work, by tracking the air flowing over drylands, we show that the warming and drying of that air contributes to dryland expansion in the downwind direction. As they dry, drylands contribute less moisture and more heat to downwind humid regions, reducing precipitation and increasing atmospheric water demand, which ultimately causes their aridification. In ~40% of the land area that recently transitioned from a humid region into a dryland, self-expansion accounted for >50% of the observed aridification. Our results corroborate the urgent need for climate change mitigation measures in drylands to decelerate their own expansion.

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle-associated fungi

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress

During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Better quantification of θcrit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water resources, food production, and ecosystem vulnerability. Here, we combine systematic satellite observations of the diurnal amplitude of land surface temperature (dLST) and SM during dry-downs, corroborated by in-situ data from flux towers, to generate the observation-based global map of θcrit. We find an average global θcrit of 0.19 m3/m3, varying from 0.12 m3/m3 in arid ecosystems to 0.26 m3/m3 in humid ecosystems. θcrit simulated by Earth System Models is overestimated in dry areas and underestimated in wet areas. The global observed pattern of θcrit reflects plant adaptation to soil available water and atmospheric demand. Using explainable machine learning, we show that aridity index, leaf area and soil texture are the most influential drivers. Moreover, we show that the annual fraction of days with water stress, when SM stays below θcrit, has increased in the past four decades. Our results have important implications for understanding the inception of water stress in models and identifying SM tipping points.

Environmental filtering mediates desert ant community assembly at two spatial scales

Understanding the mechanisms that maintain species coexistence and determine patterns of community assembly are fundamental goals of ecology. Quantifying the relationship between species traits and stress gradients is a necessary step to disentangle assembly processes and to be able to predict the outcome of environmental change. We examined the hypothesis that desert ant communities are assembled by niche-based processes i.e., environmental filtering and limiting similarity. First, we used population-level morphological trait measurements to study the functional structure of ant communities along a dryland environmental stress gradient. Second, we developed species distribution models for each species to quantify large-scale climatic niche overlap between species. Body, femur, antennal scape, and head lengths were correlated with environmental gradients. Regionally, the ant community was significantly and functionally overdispersed in terms of morphological traits which suggests the importance of competition to ant community structure. Ant community assembly was also strongly influenced by environmental factors as the degree of functional trait divergence, but not phylogenetic divergence, decreased with increasing environmental stress. Thus, environmental stress likely mediates limiting similarity in these desert ecosystems. Species with lower climatic niche overlap were more dissimilar in morphological traits. This suggests that environmental filtering on ant functional traits is important at the scale of species distributions in addition to regional scales. This study shows that environmental and biotic filtering (i.e., niche-based assembly mechanisms) are jointly and non-independently structuring the ant community.

Effects of interaction of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulations on precipitation dynamics in China

Different scenarios of precipitation, that lead to such phenomena as droughts and floods are influenced by concurrent multiple teleconnection factors. However, the multivariate relationship between precipitation indices and teleconnection factors, including large-scale atmospheric circulations and sea surface temperature signals in China, is rarely explored. Understanding this relationship is crucial for drought early warning systems and effective response strategies. In this study, we comprehensively investigated the combined effects of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation changes in China. Specifically, Pearson correlation analysis and Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) were used to identify the primary teleconnection factors influencing precipitation dynamics. Furthermore, we used the cross-wavelet method to elucidate the temporal lag and periodic relationships between multiple teleconnection factors and their interactions. Finally, the multiple wavelet coherence analysis method was used to identify the dominant two-factor and three-factor combinations shaping precipitation dynamics. This analysis facilitated the quantification and determination of interaction types and influencing pathways of teleconnection factors on precipitation dynamics, respectively. The results showed that: (1) the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were dominant teleconnection factors influencing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dynamics; (2) significant correlation and leading or lagging relationships at different timescales generally existed for various teleconnection factors, where AMO was mainly leading the other factors with positive correlation, while ENSO and Southern Oscillation (SO) were mainly lagging behind other factors with prolonged correlations; and (3) the interactions between teleconnection factors were quantified into three types: enhancing, independent and offsetting effects. Specifically, the enhancing effect of two-factor combinations was stronger than the offsetting effect, where AMO + NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AMO + AO (Atlantic Oscillation) had a larger distribution area in southern China. Conversely, the offsetting effect of three-factor combinations was more significant than that of the two-factor combinations, which was mainly distributed in northeast and northwest regions of China. This study sheds new light on the mechanisms of modulation and pathways of influencing various large-scale factors on seasonal precipitation dynamics.

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty's capital in 1644 CE

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period. However, the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear. Here, we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from 1576 to 1593 CE and from 1624 to 1643 CE in northern China, which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing. Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim, which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China, but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures. This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Niña-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China, as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas. These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE, and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

Evolution of drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought under the influences of climate change and human activities

Understanding the propagation of agricultural droughts (AD) is important to comprehensively assess drought events and develop early warning systems. The present study aims to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological drought (MD) to AD in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) over the 1950-2021 period using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI). In total, the YRB was classified into three groups of catchments for spring wheat and four groups of catchments for winter wheat based on different human influence degrees (HId). In addition, the entire study period was divided into periods with natural (NP), low (LP), and high (HP) impacts of human activities, corresponding to 1950-1971, 1972-1995, and 1996-2021, respectively. The results demonstrated the significance and credibility of the application of the natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method for drought characteristics and propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought in the YRB. Winter wheat showed a more pronounced drying trend than spring wheat under both MD and AD. The results showed meteorological drought intensity (MDI) and agricultural drought intensity (ADI) intensified for spring and winter wheat in NP, with correspondingly a short propagation time, followed by those in the LP and HP in catchments minimally impacted by human activities. On the other hand, increases in the MDI and ADI, as well as in their times, for both spring and winter wheat were observed from the LP to the HP in all catchments. The MDI, ADI, and their propagation times for winter wheat generally showed greater fluctuations than those for spring wheat. Human activities increasingly prolonged the drought propagation time. In contrast, climate change insignificantly shortened the drought propagation time.

How megadrought causes extensive mortality in a deep-rooted shrub species normally resistant to drought-induced dieback: The role of a biotic mortality agent

Southern California experienced unprecedented megadrought between 2012 and 2018. During this time, Malosma laurina, a chaparral species normally resilient to single-year intense drought, developed extensive mortality exceeding 60% throughout low-elevation coastal populations of the Santa Monica Mountains. We assessed the physiological mechanisms by which the advent of megadrought predisposed M. laurina to extensive shoot dieback and whole-plant death. We found that hydraulic conductance of stem xylem (Ks, native ) was reduced seven to 11-fold in dieback adult and resprout branches, respectively. Staining of stem xylem vessels revealed that dieback plants experienced 68% solid-blockage, explaining the reduction in water transport. Following Koch's postulates, persistent isolation of a microorganism in stem xylem of dieback plants but not healthy controls indicated that the causative agent of xylem blockage was an opportunistic endophytic fungus, Botryosphaeria dothidea. We inoculated healthy M. laurina saplings with fungal isolates and compared hyphal elongation rates under well-watered, water-deficit, and carbon-deficit treatments. Relative to controls, we found that both water deficit and carbon-deficit increased hyphal extension rates and the incidence of shoot dieback.

Increasing radial growth in old-growth high-elevation conifers in Southern California, USA, during the exceptional "hot drought" of 2000-2020

Hot droughts, droughts attributed to below-average precipitation and exceptional warmth, are increasingly common in the twenty-first century, yet little is known about their effect on coniferous tree growth because of their historical rarity. In much of the American West, including California, radial tree growth is principally driven by precipitation, and narrow ring widths are typically associated with either drier or drought conditions. However, for species growing at high elevations (e.g., Larix lyalli, Pinus albicaulis), growth can be closely aligned with above-average temperatures with maximum growth coinciding with meteorological drought, suggesting that the growth effects of drought span from adverse to beneficial depending on location. Here, we compare radial growth responses of three high-elevation old-growth pines (Pinus jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, and P. contorta) growing in the San Jacinto Mountains, California, during a twenty-first-century hot drought (2000-2020) largely caused by exceptional warmth and a twentieth-century drought (1959-1966) principally driven by precipitation deficits. Mean radial growth during the hot drought was 12% above average while 18% below average during the mid-century drought illustrating that the consequences of environmental stress exhibit spatiotemporal variability. We conclude that the effects of hot droughts on tree growth in high-elevation forests may produce responses different than what is commonly associated with extended dry periods for much of western North America's forested lands at lower elevational ranges and likely applies to other mountainous regions (e.g., Mediterranean Europe) defined by summer-dry conditions. Thus, the climatological/biological interactions discovered in Southern California may offer clues to the unique nature of high-elevation forested ecosystems globally.

The Evolution, Expression Patterns, and Domestication Selection Analysis of the Annexin Gene Family in the Barley Pan-Genome

Plant annexins constitute a conserved protein family that plays crucial roles in regulating plant growth and development, as well as in responses to both biotic and abiotic stresses. In this study, a total of 144 annexin genes were identified in the barley pan-genome, comprising 12 reference genomes, including cultivated barley, landraces, and wild barley. Their chromosomal locations, physical-chemical characteristics, gene structures, conserved domains, and subcellular localizations were systematically analyzed to reveal the certain differences between wild and cultivated populations. Through a cis-acting element analysis, co-expression network, and large-scale transcriptome analysis, their involvement in growth, development, and responses to various stressors was highlighted. It is worth noting that HvMOREXann5 is only expressed in pistils and anthers, indicating its crucial role in reproductive development. Based on the resequencing data from 282 barley accessions worldwide, genetic variations in thefamily were investigated, and the results showed that 5 out of the 12 identified HvMOREXanns were affected by selection pressure. Genetic diversity and haplotype frequency showed notable reductions between wild and domesticated barley, suggesting that a genetic bottleneck occurred on the annexin family during the barley domestication process. Finally, qRT-PCR analysis confirmed the up-regulation of HvMOREXann7 under drought stress, along with significant differences between wild accessions and varieties. This study provides some insights into the genome organization and genetic characteristics of the annexin gene family in barley at the pan-genome level, which will contribute to better understanding its evolution and function in barley and other crops.

High resolution climate change observations and projections for the evaluation of heat-related extremes

The Climate Hazards Center Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projection dataset (CHC-CMIP6) was developed to support the analysis of climate-related hazards, including extreme humid heat and drought conditions, over the recent past and in the near-future. Global daily high resolution (0.05°) grids of the Climate Hazards InfraRed Temperature with Stations temperature product, the Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Stations precipitation product, and ERA5-derived relative humidity form the basis of the 1983-2016 historical record, from which daily Vapor Pressure Deficits (VPD) and maximum Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGTmax) were derived. Large CMIP6 ensembles from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios were then used to develop high resolution daily 2030 and 2050 'delta' fields. These deltas were used to perturb the historical observations, thereby generating 0.05° 2030 and 2050 projections of daily precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and derived VPD and WBGTmax. Finally, monthly counts of frequency of extremes for each variable were derived for each time period.

Grassland sensitivity to drought is related to functional composition across East Asia and North America

Plant traits can be helpful for understanding grassland ecosystem responses to climate extremes, such as severe drought. However, intercontinental comparisons of how drought affects plant functional traits and ecosystem functioning are rare. The Extreme Drought in Grasslands experiment (EDGE) was established across the major grassland types in East Asia and North America (six sites on each continent) to measure variability in grassland ecosystem sensitivity to extreme, prolonged drought. At all sites, we quantified community-weighted mean functional composition and functional diversity of two leaf economic traits, specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content, in response to drought. We found that experimental drought significantly increased community-weighted means of specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content at all North American sites and at the wetter East Asian sites, but drought decreased community-weighted means of these traits at moderate to dry East Asian sites. Drought significantly decreased functional richness but increased functional evenness and dispersion at most East Asian and North American sites. Ecosystem drought sensitivity (percentage reduction in aboveground net primary productivity) positively correlated with community-weighted means of specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content and negatively correlated with functional diversity (i.e., richness) on an intercontinental scale, but results differed within regions. These findings highlight both broad generalities but also unique responses to drought of community-weighted trait means as well as their functional diversity across grassland ecosystems.

Access for sale? Overlying rights, land transactions, and groundwater in California

Climate change intensifies longstanding tensions over groundwater sustainability and equity of access among users. Though private land ownership is a primary mechanism for accessing groundwater in many regions, few studies have systematically examined the extent to which farmland markets transform groundwater access patterns over time. This study begins to fill this gap by examining farmland transactions overlying groundwater from 2003-17 in California. We construct a novel dataset that downscales well construction behavior to the parcel level, and we use it to characterize changes in groundwater access patterns by buyer type on newly transacted parcels in the San Joaquin Valley groundwater basin during the 2011-17 drought. Our results demonstrate large-scale transitions in farmland ownership, with 21.1% of overlying agricultural acreage statewide sold at least once during the study period and with the highest rates of turnover occurring in critically overdrafted basins. By 2017, annual individual farmland acquisitions had halved, while acquisitions by limited liability companies increased to one-third of all overlying acres purchased. Together, these trends signal increasing corporate farmland acquisitions; new corporate farmland owners are associated with the construction, on comparable parcels, of agricultural wells 77-81 feet deeper than those drilled by new individual landowners. We discuss the implications of our findings for near-term governance of groundwater, and their relevance for understanding structural inequities in exposure to future groundwater level declines.

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.

The dog as a sentinel and animal model for coccidioidomycosis

Coccidioidomycosis is a potentially fatal fungal disease of humans and animals that follows inhalation of Coccidioides spp. arthroconidia in the environment. The disease in dogs resembles that in people, and because dogs may be at increased risk of exposure due to their proximity to the ground and digging behavior, they are valuable models for the disease in humans. Dogs have been sentinels for identification of new regions of endemicity in Washington and Texas. Canine serosurveillance has also been used to predict variables associated with environmental presence of Coccidioides spp. Expansion of the endemic region of coccidioidomycosis with climate change-along with predicted population increases and increased development in the southwest United States-may result in 45.4 million additional people at risk of infection by 2090. Here we provide an overview of the value of dogs as sentinels for the disease and encourage the routine reporting of coccidioidomycosis cases in dogs to public health agencies. We also highlight the value of dogs as naturally occurring models for studying novel treatment options and preventatives, such as a novel live avirulent coccidioidomycosis vaccine.

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas-driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. It indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines1-4. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass5,6 have made the detection and attribution of human-forced snow losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981-2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable-even absent their clear detection in individual snow products-and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.

Annals of Education: Teaching Climate Change and Global Public Health

The climate crisis is a health emergency: breaking temperature records every successive month, increasing mortality from hurricanes/cyclones resulting in >USD150 billion/year in damages, and mounting global loss of life from floods, droughts, and food insecurity. An entire course on climate change and global public health was envisioned, designed for students in public health, and delivered to Masters level students. The course content included the physical science behind global heating, heat waves, extreme weather disasters, arthropod-related diseases, allergies, air pollution epidemiology, melting ice and sea level rise, climate denialism, renewable energy and economics, social cost of carbon, and public policy. The methods included student engagement in presenting two air pollution epidemiological or experimental papers on fossil fuel air pollution. Second, they authored a mid-term paper on a specific topic in the climate crisis facing their locale, e.g., New York City. Third, they focused on a State, evaluating their climate change laws and their plans to harness renewable wind, solar, storage, nuclear, and geothermal energy. Students elsewhere covered regional entities' approach to renewable energy. Fourth, the global impact was presented by student teams presenting a country's nationally determined contribution to the Paris Climate Agreement. Over 200 Master's students completed the course; the participation and feedback demonstrated markedly improved knowledge and evaluation of the course over time.

Non-perennial segments in river networks

Non-perennial river segments - those that recurrently cease to flow or frequently dry - occur in all river networks and are globally more abundant than perennial (always flowing) segments. However, research and management have historically focused on perennial river segments. In this Review, we outline how non-perennial segments are integral parts of river networks. Repeated cycles of flowing, non-flowing and dry phases in non-perennial segments influence biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics at different spatial scales, from individual segments to entire river networks. Varying configurations of perennial and non-perennial segments govern physical, chemical and ecological responses to changes in the flow regimes of each river network, especially in response to human activities. The extent of non-perennial segments in river networks has increased owing to warming, changing hydrological patterns and human activities, and this increase is predicted to continue. Moreover, the dry phases of flow regimes are expected to be longer, drier and more frequent, albeit with high regional variability. These changes will likely impact biodiversity, potentially tipping some ecosystems to compromised stable states. Effective river-network management must recognize ecosystem services (such as flood risk management and groundwater recharge) provided by non-perennial segments and ensure their legislative and regulatory protection, which is often lacking.

Limits of thermal and hydrological tolerance in a foundation tree species (Populus fremontii) in the desert southwestern United States

Populus fremontii is among the most dominant, and ecologically important riparian tree species in the western United States and can thrive in hyper-arid riparian corridors. Yet, P. fremontii forests have rapidly declined over the last decade, particularly in places where temperatures sometimes exceed 50°C. We evaluated high temperature tolerance of leaf metabolism, leaf thermoregulation, and leaf hydraulic function in eight P. fremontii populations spanning a 5.3°C mean annual temperature gradient in a well-watered common garden, and at source locations throughout the lower Colorado River Basin. Two major results emerged. First, despite having an exceptionally high Tcrit (the temperature at which Photosystem II is disrupted) relative to other tree taxa, recent heat waves exceeded Tcrit , requiring evaporative leaf cooling to maintain leaf-to-air thermal safety margins. Second, in midsummer, genotypes from the warmest locations maintained lower midday leaf temperatures, a higher midday stomatal conductance, and maintained turgor pressure at lower water potentials than genotypes from more temperate locations. Taken together, results suggest that under well-watered conditions, P. fremontii can regulate leaf temperature below Tcrit along the warm edge of its distribution. Nevertheless, reduced Colorado River flows threaten to lower water tables below levels needed for evaporative cooling during episodic heat waves.

Soil moisture dominates the variation of gross primary productivity during hot drought in drylands

The frequency and severity of hot drought will increase in the future due to impact of climate change and human activities, threatening the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems and human societies. Hot drought is a typical type of drought event, high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil moisture (SM) are its main characteristics of hot drought, with increasing water stress on vegetation and exacerbating hydrological drought and ecosystem risks. However, our understanding of the effects of high VPD and low SM on vegetation productivity is limited, because these two variables are strongly coupled and influenced by other climatic drivers. The southwestern United States experienced one of the most severe hot drought events on record in 2020. In this study, we used SM and gross primary productivity (GPP) datasets from Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP), as well as VPD and other meteorological datasets from gridMET. We decoupled the effects of different meteorological factors on GPP at monthly and daily scales using partial correlation analysis, partial least squares regression, and binning methods. We found that SM anomalies contribute more to GPP anomalies than VPD anomalies at monthly and daily scales. Especially at the daily scale, as the decoupled SM anomalies increased, the GPP anomalies increased. However, there is no significant change in GPP anomalies as VPD increases. For all the vegetation types and arid zones, SM dominated the variation in GPP, followed by VPD or maximum temperature. At the flux tower scale, decoupled soil water content (SWC) also dominated changes in GPP, compared to VPD. In the next century, hot drought will occur frequently in dryland regions, where GPP is one of the highest uncertainties in terrestrial ecosystems. Our study has important implications for identifying the strong coupling of meteorological factors and their impact on vegetation under climate change.

Nanocomposite Hydrogel Engineered Janus Membrane for Membrane Distillation with Robust Fouling, Wetting, and Scaling Resistance

Membrane distillation (MD) is considered to be rather promising for high-salinity wastewater reclamation. However, its practical viability is seriously challenged by membrane wetting, fouling, and scaling issues arising from the complex components of hypersaline wastewater. It remains extremely difficult to overcome all three challenges at the same time. Herein, a nanocomposite hydrogel engineered Janus membrane has been facilely constructed for desired wetting/fouling/scaling-free properties, where a cellulose nanocrystal (CNC) composite hydrogel layer is formed in situ atop a microporous hydrophobic polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) substrate intermediated by an adhesive layer. By the synergies of the elevated membrane liquid entry pressure, inhibited surfactant diffusion, and highly hydratable surface imparted by the hydrogel/CNC (HC) layer, the resultant HC-PTFE membrane exhibits robust resistance to surfactant-induced wetting and oil fouling during 120 h of MD operation. Meanwhile, owing to the dense and hydroxyl-abundant surface, it is capable of mitigating gypsum scaling and scaling-induced wetting, resulting in a high normalized flux and low distillate conductivity at a concentration factor of 5.2. Importantly, the HC-PTFE membrane enables direct desalination of real hypersaline wastewater containing broad-spectrum foulants with stable vapor flux and robust salt rejection (99.90%) during long-term operation, demonstrating its great potential for wastewater management in industrial scenarios.

Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States

Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes-including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as "prescribed fire," can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here, we quantify observed and projected trends in the frequency and seasonality of western United States prescribed fire days. We find that while ~2 C of global warming by 2060 will reduce such days overall (-17%), particularly during spring (-25%) and summer (-31%), winter (+4%) may increasingly emerge as a comparatively favorable window for prescribed fire especially in northern states.

Carbon starvation following a decade of experimental drought consumes old reserves in Pinus edulis

Shifts in the age or turnover time of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) may underlie changes in tree growth under long-term increases in drought stress associated with climate change. But NSC responses to drought are challenging to quantify, due in part to large NSC stores in trees and subsequently long response times of NSC to climate variation. We measured NSC age (Δ14 C) along with a suite of ecophysiological metrics in Pinus edulis trees experiencing either extreme short-term drought (-90% ambient precipitation plot, 2020-2021) or a decade of severe drought (-45% plot, 2010-2021). We tested the hypothesis that carbon starvation - consumption exceeding synthesis and storage - increases the age of sapwood NSC. One year of extreme drought had no impact on NSC pool size or age, despite significant reductions in predawn water potential, photosynthetic rates/capacity, and twig and needle growth. By contrast, long-term drought halved the age of the sapwood NSC pool, coupled with reductions in sapwood starch concentrations (-75%), basal area increment (-39%), and bole respiration rates (-28%). Our results suggest carbon starvation takes time, as tree carbon reserves appear resilient to extreme disturbance in the short term. However, after a decade of drought, trees apparently consumed old stored NSC to support metabolism.

Microbial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of drought events, affecting soil functions including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are driven by growing microorganisms. Yet we know little about microbial responses to drought due to methodological limitations. Here, we estimate microbial growth rates in montane grassland soils exposed to ambient conditions, drought, and potential future climate conditions (i.e., soils exposed to 6 years of elevated temperatures and elevated CO2 levels). For this purpose, we combined 18O-water vapor equilibration with quantitative stable isotope probing (termed 'vapor-qSIP') to measure taxon-specific microbial growth in dry soils. In our experiments, drought caused >90% of bacterial and archaeal taxa to stop dividing and reduced the growth rates of persisting ones. Under drought, growing taxa accounted for only 4% of the total community as compared to 35% in the controls. Drought-tolerant communities were dominated by specialized members of the Actinobacteriota, particularly the genus Streptomyces. Six years of pre-exposure to future climate conditions (3 °C warming and + 300 ppm atmospheric CO2) alleviated drought effects on microbial growth, through more drought-tolerant taxa across major phyla, accounting for 9% of the total community. Our results provide insights into the response of active microbes to drought today and in a future climate, and highlight the importance of studying drought in combination with future climate conditions to capture interactive effects and improve predictions of future soil-climate feedbacks.

Harvester ant colonies differ in collective behavioural plasticity to regulate water loss

Collective behavioural plasticity allows ant colonies to adjust to changing conditions. The red harvester ant (Pogonomyrmex barbatus), a desert seed-eating species, regulates foraging activity in response to water stress. Foraging ants lose water to evaporation. Reducing foraging activity in dry conditions sacrifices food intake but conserves water. Within a year, some colonies tend to reduce foraging on dry days while others do not. We examined whether these differences among colonies in collective behavioural plasticity persist from year to year. Colonies live 20-30 years with a single queen who produces successive cohorts of workers which live only a year. The humidity level at which all colonies tend to reduce foraging varies from year to year. Longitudinal observations of 95 colonies over 5 years between 2016 and 2021 showed that differences among colonies, in how they regulate foraging activity in response to day-to-day changes in humidity, persist across years. Approximately 40% of colonies consistently reduced foraging activity, year after year, on days with low daily maximum relative humidity; approximately 20% of colonies never did, foraging as much or more on dry days as on humid days. This variation among colonies may allow evolutionary rescue from drought due to climate change.

Short-term effects of a high-severity summer wildfire on conifer forest moth (Lepidoptera) communities in New Mexico, USA

Forest fires in North America are becoming larger in area and burning with higher severity as a result of climate change and land management practices. High-severity, stand-replacement fires can inflict major changes to forest insect communities, potentially extirpating many species through altered post-fire habitat resources. We assessed forest-dwelling macrolepidopteran moth communities in mixed conifer and ponderosa pine forests during the first year after the 2011 Las Conchas fire in New Mexico, USA. We deployed blacklight traps in replicated burned and unburned stands during June, July, and August in 2012. We collected 9,478 individuals, representing 211 species and 8 families. Noctuidae (124 species) and Geometridae (53) comprised the majority of the taxa, followed by Erebidae (21), Sphingidae (5), Notodontidae (3), Lasiocampidae (2), Saturniidae (2), and Drepanidae (1). Moth communities (species composition and abundances) in each forest type (mixed conifer vs. ponderosa pine) were statistically distinguishable, but shared 56.4% (119) of observed species. Overall, compared to unburned forests, post-fire moth communities in both forest types had significantly lower numbers of individuals, species richness and diversity, and lower evenness in ponderosa pine forests. As expected, categorizing moth taxa by larval host plant taxa revealed that reductions of moth populations following fire were associated with the elimination or reduction of available larval host plants (particularly conifers, oaks, and junipers). We predict that future moth community succession will likely parallel the overall transformation from a forested landscape to a montane meadow/grassland ecosystem, with continued reduction in tree-feeding species and increasing dominance by forb/grass-feeding species.

The North American Monsoon buffers forests against the ongoing megadrought in the Southwestern United States

The US Southwest has been entrenched in a two-decade-long megadrought (MD), the most severe since 800 CE, which threatens the long-term vitality and persistence of regional montane forests. Here, we report that in the face of record low winter precipitation and increasing atmospheric aridity, seasonal activity of the North American Monsoon (NAM) climate system brings sufficient precipitation during the height of the summer to alleviate extreme tree water stress. We studied seasonally resolved, tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratios across a 57-year time series (1960-2017) in 17 Ponderosa pine forests distributed across the NAM geographic domain. Our study focused on the isotope dynamics of latewood (LW), which is produced in association with NAM rains. During the MD, populations growing within the core region of the NAM operated at lower intrinsic and higher evaporative water-use efficiencies (WUEi and WUEE , respectively), compared to populations growing in the periphery of the NAM domain, indicating less physiological water stress in those populations with access to NAM moisture. The disparities in water-use efficiencies in periphery populations are due to a higher atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and reduced access to summer soil moisture. The buffering advantage of the NAM, however, is weakening. We observed that since the MD, the relationship between WUEi and WUEE in forests within the core NAM domain is shifting toward a drought response similar to forests on the periphery of the NAM. After correcting for past increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, we were able to isolate the LW time-series responses to climate alone. This showed that the shift in the relation between WUEi and WUEE was driven by the extreme increases in MD-associated VPD, with little advantageous influence on stomatal conductance from increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

A genotype × environment experiment reveals contrasting response strategies to drought between populations of a keystone species (Artemisia tridentata; Asteraceae)

Western North America has been experiencing persistent drought exacerbated by climate change for over two decades. This extreme climate event is a clear threat to native plant communities. Artemisia tridentata is a keystone shrub species in western North America and is threatened by climate change, urbanization, and wildfire. A drought Genotype × Environment (G × E) experiment was conducted to assess phenotypic plasticity and differential gene expression in A. tridentata. The G × E experiment was performed on diploid A. tridentata seedlings from two populations (one from Idaho, USA and one from Utah, USA), which experience differing levels of drought stress during the summer months. Photosynthetic data, leaf temperature, and gene expression levels were compared between treatments and populations. The Utah population maintained higher photosynthetic rates and photosynthetic efficiency than the Idaho population under drought stress. The Utah population also exhibited far greater transcriptional plasticity than the Idaho population and expressed genes of response pathways distinct from those of the Idaho population. Populations of A. tridentata differ greatly in their drought response pathways, likely due to differences in response pathways that have evolved under distinct climatic regimes. Epigenetic processes likely contribute to the observed differences between the populations.

Heat stress and amphibian immunity in a time of climate change

As a class of vertebrates, amphibians, are at greater risk for declines or extinctions than any other vertebrate group, including birds and mammals. There are many threats, including habitat destruction, invasive species, overuse by humans, toxic chemicals and emerging diseases. Climate change which brings unpredictable temperature changes and rainfall constitutes an additional threat. Survival of amphibians depends on immune defences functioning well under these combined threats. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of how amphibians respond to some natural stressors, including heat and desiccation stress, and the limited studies of the immune defences under these stressful conditions. In general, the current studies suggest that desiccation and heat stress can activate the hypothalamus pituitary-interrenal axis, with possible suppression of some innate and lymphocyte-mediated responses. Elevated temperatures can alter microbial communities in amphibian skin and gut, resulting in possible dysbiosis that fosters reduced resistance to pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Amphibian immunity: stress, disease and ecoimmunology'.

Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States

The western United States has experienced severe drought in recent decades, and climate models project increased drought risk in the future. This increased drying could have important implications for the region's interconnected, hydropower-dependent electricity systems. Using power-plant level generation and emissions data from 2001 to 2021, we quantify the impacts of drought on the operation of fossil fuel plants and the associated impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and human health. We find that under extreme drought, electricity generation from individual fossil fuel plants can increase up to 65% relative to average conditions, mainly due to the need to substitute for reduced hydropower. Over 54% of this drought-induced generation is transboundary, with drought in one electricity region leading to net imports of electricity and thus increased pollutant emissions from power plants in other regions. These drought-induced emission increases have detectable impacts on local air quality, as measured by proximate pollution monitors. We estimate that the monetized costs of excess mortality and GHG emissions from drought-induced fossil generation are 1.2 to 2.5x the reported direct economic costs from lost hydro production and increased demand. Combining climate model estimates of future drying with stylized energy-transition scenarios suggests that these drought-induced impacts are likely to remain large even under aggressive renewables expansion, suggesting that more ambitious and targeted measures are needed to mitigate the emissions and health burden from the electricity sector during drought.

Nursing Strategies to Help Children Cope with Eco-Anxiety

ABSTRACT

The threat of climate change is causing collective fear and worry among individuals and communities worldwide. Children may be among those who are most affected. As global temperatures continue to rise and subsequent natural disasters occur with more intensity, children are taking notice and, as a result, experiencing what experts are calling "eco-anxiety." Eco-anxiety, a term used to describe the negative emotions associated with climate change, is becoming more prevalent in children as they witness these extreme weather events and hear future dire scenarios laid out by scientists. Children are becoming acutely aware that their governments are not doing enough to protect them or their future, resulting in a distress that could be reduced if world governments became more committed to the fight to protect the planet from climate change. In the interim, there are nursing strategies to help children cope with their overwhelming sense of doom. By having their concerns validated, implementing strategies to feel more connected to the natural world, and becoming more empowered to take action to protect the planet, children can begin to feel more optimistic and confident about their futures.

Climate and fire impacts on tree recruitment in mixed conifer forests in northwestern Mexico and California

Frequent-fire forests were once heterogeneous at multiple spatial scales, which contributed to their resilience to severe fire. While many studies have characterized historical spatial patterns in frequent-fire forests, fewer studies have investigated their temporal dynamics. We investigated the influences of fire and climate on the timing of conifer recruitment in old-growth Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests in the Sierra San Pedro Martir (SSPM) and the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada. Additionally, we evaluated the impacts of fire exclusion and recent climate change on recruitment levels using statistical models with realized as well as fire suppression and climate change-free counterfactual scenarios. Excessive soil drying from anthropogenic climate change resulted in diminished recruitment in the SSPM but not in the Sierra Nevada. Longer fire-free intervals attributable to fire suppression and exclusion resulted in greater rates of recruitment across all sites but was particularly pronounced in the Sierra Nevada, where suppression began >100 years ago and recruitment was 28 times higher than the historical fire return interval scenario. This demonstrates the profound impact of fire's removal on tree recruitment in Sierra Nevada forests even in the context of recent climate change. Tree recruitment at the SSPM coincided with the early-20th-century North American pluvial, as well as a fire-quiescent period in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Episodic recruitment occurred in the SSPM with no "average" recruitment over the last three centuries. We found that temporal heterogeneity, in conjunction with spatial heterogeneity, are critical components of frequent-fire-adapted forests. Episodic recruitment could be a desirable characteristic of frequent-fire-adapted forests, and this might be more amenable to climate change impacts that forecast more variable precipitation patterns in the future. One key to this outcome would be for frequent fire to continue to shape these forests versus continued emphasis on fire suppression in California.

Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau

Global dryland vegetation communities will likely change as ongoing drought conditions shift regional climates towards a more arid future. Additional aridification of drylands can impact plant and ground cover, biogeochemical cycles, and plant-soil feedbacks, yet how and when these crucial ecosystem components will respond to drought intensification requires further investigation. Using a long-term precipitation reduction experiment (35% reduction) conducted across the Colorado Plateau and spanning 10 years into a 20+ year regional megadrought, we explored how vegetation cover, soil conditions, and growing season nitrogen (N) availability are impacted by drying climate conditions. We observed large declines for all dominant plant functional types (C₃ and C₄ grasses and C₃ and C₄ shrubs) across measurement period, both in the drought treatment and control plots, likely due to ongoing regional megadrought conditions. In experimental drought plots, we observed less plant cover, less biological soil crust cover, warmer and drier soil conditions, and more soil resin-extractable N compared to the control plots. Observed increases in soil N availability were best explained by a negative correlation with plant cover regardless of treatment, suggesting that declines in vegetation N uptake may be driving increases in available soil N. However, in ecosystems experiencing long-term aridification, increased N availability may ultimately result in N losses if soil moisture is consistently too dry to support plant and microbial N immobilization and ecosystem recovery. These results show dramatic, worrisome declines in plant cover with long-term drought. Additionally, this study highlights that more plant cover losses are possible with further drought intensification and underscore that, in addition to large drought effects on aboveground communities, drying trends drive significant changes to critical soil resources such as N availability, all of which could have long-term ecosystem impacts for drylands.

Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage

Climate change and human activities increasingly threaten lakes that store 87% of Earth's liquid surface fresh water. Yet, recent trends and drivers of lake volume change remain largely unknown globally. Here, we analyze the 1972 largest global lakes using three decades of satellite observations, climate data, and hydrologic models, finding statistically significant storage declines for 53% of these water bodies over the period 1992-2020. The net volume loss in natural lakes is largely attributable to climate warming, increasing evaporative demand, and human water consumption, whereas sedimentation dominates storage losses in reservoirs. We estimate that roughly one-quarter of the world's population resides in a basin of a drying lake, underscoring the necessity of incorporating climate change and sedimentation impacts into sustainable water resources management.

Rapid evolution during climate change: demographic and genetic constraints on adaptation to severe drought

Populations often vary in their evolutionary responses to a shared environmental perturbation. A key hurdle in building more predictive models of rapid evolution is understanding this variation-why do some populations and traits evolve while others do not? We combined long-term demographic and environmental data, estimates of quantitative genetic variance components, a resurrection experiment and individual-based evolutionary simulations to gain mechanistic insights into contrasting evolutionary responses to a severe multi-year drought. We examined five traits in two populations of a native California plant, Clarkia xantiana, at three time points over 7 years. Earlier flowering phenology evolved in only one of the two populations, though both populations experienced similar drought severity and demographic declines and were estimated to have considerable additive genetic variance for flowering phenology. Pairing demographic and experimental data with evolutionary simulations suggested that while seed banks in both populations probably constrained evolutionary responses, a stronger seed bank in the non-evolving population resulted in evolutionary stasis. Gene flow through time via germ banks may be an important, underappreciated control on rapid evolution in response to extreme environmental perturbations.

Variation in methane uptake by grassland soils in the context of climate change - A review of effects and mechanisms

Grassland soils are climate-dependent ecosystems that have a significant greenhouse gas mitigating function through their ability to store large amounts of carbon (C). However, what is often not recognized is that they can also exhibit a high methane (CH₄) uptake capacity that could be influenced by future increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and variations in temperature and water availability. While there is a wealth of information on C sequestration in grasslands there is less consensus on how climate change impacts on CH₄ uptake or the underlying mechanisms involved. To address this, we assessed existing knowledge on the impact of climate change components on CH₄ uptake by grassland soils. Increases in precipitation associated with soils with a high background soil moisture content generally resulted in a reduction in CH₄ uptake or even net emissions, while the effect was opposite in soils with a relatively low background moisture content. Initially wet grasslands subject to the combined effects of warming and water deficits may absorb more CH₄, mainly due to increased gas diffusivity. However, in the longer-term heat and drought stress may reduce the activity of methanotrophs when the mean soil moisture content is below the optimum for their survival. Enhanced plant productivity and growth under elevated CO₂, increased soil moisture and changed nutrient concentrations, can differentially affect methanotrophic activity, which is often reduced by increasing N deposition. Our estimations showed that CH₄ uptake in grassland soils can change from -57.7 % to +6.1 % by increased precipitation, from -37.3 % to +85.3 % by elevated temperatures, from +0.87 % to +92.4 % by decreased precipitation, and from -66.7 % to +27.3 % by elevated CO₂. In conclusion, the analysis suggests that grasslands under the influence of warming and drought may absorb even more CH₄, mainly because of reduced soil water contents and increased gas diffusivity.

A 350,000-year history of groundwater recharge in the southern Great Basin, USA

Estimating groundwater recharge under various climate conditions is important for predicting future freshwater availability. This is especially true for the water-limited region of the southern Great Basin, USA. To investigate the response of groundwater recharge to different climate states, we calculate the paleo recharge to a groundwater basin in southern Nevada over the last 350,000 years. Our approach combines a groundwater model with paleo-water-table data from Devils Hole cave. The minimum water-table during peak interglacial conditions was more than 1.6 m below modern levels, representing a recharge decline of less than 17% from present-day conditions. During peak glacial conditions, the water-table elevation was at least 9.5 m above modern levels, representing a recharge increase of more than 233-244% compared to present-day conditions. The elevation of the Devils Hole water-table is 3-4 times more sensitive to groundwater recharge during dry interglacial periods, compared to wet glacial periods. This study can serve as a benchmark for understanding long-term effects of past and future climate change on groundwater resources.

Elevation-dependent intensification of fire danger in the western United States

Studies have identified elevation-dependent warming trends, but investigations of such trends in fire danger are absent in the literature. Here, we demonstrate that while there have been widespread increases in fire danger across the mountainous western US from 1979 to 2020, trends were most acute at high-elevation regions above 3000 m. The greatest increase in the number of days conducive to large fires occurred at 2500-3000 m, adding 63 critical fire danger days between 1979 and 2020. This includes 22 critical fire danger days occurring outside the warm season (May-September). Furthermore, our findings indicate increased elevational synchronization of fire danger in western US mountains, which can facilitate increased geographic opportunities for ignitions and fire spread that further complicate fire management operations. We hypothesize that several physical mechanisms underpinned the observed trends, including elevationally disparate impacts of earlier snowmelt, intensified land-atmosphere feedbacks, irrigation, and aerosols, in addition to widespread warming/drying.

Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change

Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901-2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.

Identification and quantification of Cr, Cu, and As incidental nanomaterials derived from CCA-treated wood in wildland-urban interface fire ashes

In addition to the combustion of vegetation, fires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) burn structural materials, including chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood. This study identifies, quantifies, and characterizes Cr-, Cu-, and As-bearing incidental nanomaterials (INMs) in WUI fire ashes collected from three residential structures suspected to have originated from the combustion of CCA-treated wood. The total elemental concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma-time of flight-mass spectrometry (ICP-TOF-MS) following acid digestion. The crystalline phases were determined using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), specifically using electron diffraction and high-resolution imaging. The multi-element single particle composition and size distribution were determined by single particle (SP)-ICP-TOF-MS coupled with agglomerative hierarchical clustering analysis. Chromium, Cu, and As are the dominant elements in the ashes and together account for 93%, 83%, and 24% of the total mass of measured elements in the ash samples. Chromium, Cu, and As phases, analyzed by TEM, most closely match CrO₃, CrO₂, eskolaite (Cr₂O₃), CuCrO₂, CuCr₂O₄, CrAs₂O₆, As₂O₅, AsO₂, claudetite (As₂O₃, monoclinic), or arsenolite (As₂O₃, cubic), although a bona fide phase identification for each particle was not always possible. These phases occur predominantly as heteroaggregates. Multi-element single particle analyses demonstrate that Cr occurs as a pure phase (i.e., Cr oxides) as well as in association with other elements (e.g., Cu and As); Cu occurs predominantly in association with Cr and As; and As occurs as As oxides and in association with Cu and Cr. Several Cr, Cu, and As clusters were identified and the molar ratios of Cr/Cu and Cr/As within these clusters are consistent with the crystalline phases identified by TEM as well as their heteroaggregates. These results indicate that WUI fires can lead to significant release of CCA constituents and their combustion-transformed by-products into the surrounding environment. This study also provides a method to identify and track CCA constituents in environmental systems based on multi-element analysis using SP-ICP-TOF-MS.