Venous sinus stenting for idiopathic intracranial hypertension: An updated Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) is characterized by elevated intracranial pressure and primarily affects obese women of reproductive age. Venous sinus stenting (VSS) is a surgical procedure used to treat IIH, but its safety and efficacy are still controversial.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Multiple databases were searched for studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of VSS in IIH patients and meta-analysis was performed to pool the data.

RESULTS

A total of 36 studies involving 1066 patients who underwent VSS were included. After VSS, a significant reduction in trans-stenotic gradient pressure was observed. Patients also showed significantly lower cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) opening pressure. Clinical outcomes demonstrated improvement in tinnitus (95%), papilledema (89%), visual disturbances (88%), and headache (79%). However, 13.7% of patients experienced treatment failure or complications. The treatment failure rate was 8.35%, characterized by worsening symptoms and recurrence of IIH. The complications rate was 5.35%, including subdural hemorrhage, urinary tract infection, stent thrombus formation, and others.

CONCLUSION

VSS appears to be a safe and effective treatment option for IIH patients who are unresponsive to medical therapy or have significant visual symptoms. However, long-term outcomes and safety of the procedure require further investigation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prediction of delayed cerebral ischemia followed aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. A machine-learning based study

INTRODUCTION

Delayed Cerebral Ischemia (DCI) is a significant complication following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) that can lead to poor outcomes. Machine learning techniques have shown promise in predicting DCI and improving risk stratification.

METHODS

In this study, we aimed to develop machine learning models to predict the occurrence of DCI in patients with aSAH. Patient data, including various clinical variables and co-factors, were collected. Six different machine learning models, including logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), were trained and evaluated using performance metrics such as accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, and F1 score.

RESULTS

After data augmentation, the random forest model demonstrated the best performance, with an AUC of 0.85. The multilayer perceptron neural network model achieved an accuracy of 0.93 and an F1 score of 0.85, making it the best performing model. The presence of positive clinical vasospasm was identified as the most important feature for predicting DCI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the potential of machine learning models in predicting the occurrence of DCI in patients with aSAH. The multilayer perceptron model showed excellent performance, indicating its utility in risk stratification and clinical decision-making. However, further validation and refinement of the models are necessary to ensure their generalizability and applicability in real-world settings. Machine learning techniques have the potential to enhance patient care and improve outcomes in aSAH, but their implementation should be accompanied by careful evaluation and validation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Safety and efficacy of chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy for acute myeloid leukemia: A subgroup based meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a significant hematological malignancy in the United States, with a high mortality rate and limited treatment options. CAR T-cell therapy, a new and promising treatment, is being investigated for its efficacy and safety in AML. This meta-analysis aims to assess the safety and efficacy of CAR T-cell therapy in AML, considering various subgroups such as study location, study design, prior transplantation status, conditioning regimen, and CAR T-cell source.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive literature review across multiple databases, adhering to PRISMA guidelines and focusing on studies concerning CAR T-cell therapy in AML. We included original articles in English and excluded non-original reviews, abstracts, and non-English studies. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane ROBINS-I tool. Statistical analysis involved meta-analysis with Cochrane's Q-test and I² statistic, using both fixed-effect and random-effects models, and assessed for publication bias.

RESULTS

Our search yielded studies encompassing 57 AML patients treated with CAR T-cell therapy. The meta-analysis revealed a 48% incidence of complete remission with CAR T-cell therapy, varying significantly across subgroups based on study design, location, prior transplantation, conditioning regimen, and CAR T-cell source. The highest complete remission rates were observed in patients from China, those who had undergone prior hematopoietic cell transplantation, and those treated with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide conditioning regimen. Adverse events included graft-versus-host disease (7%) and cytokine release syndrome (53%).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis highlights the potential of CAR T-cell therapy in AML treatment, especially when integrated with certain prior treatments and conditioning regimens. The findings suggest a higher efficacy in patients with previous hematopoietic cell transplantation and specific conditioning regimens. Further large-scale, randomized trials are essential to confirm these findings and establish CAR T-cell therapy as a standard treatment for AML.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.

METHODS

Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO African region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

A critical and persistent challenge to global health and modern health care is the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Previous studies have reported a disproportionate burden of AMR in low-income and middle-income countries, but there remains an urgent need for more in-depth analyses across Africa. This study presents one of the most comprehensive sets of regional and country-level estimates of bacterial AMR burden in the WHO African region to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO African region in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). We obtained data from research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

FINDINGS

In the WHO African region in 2019, there were an estimated 1·05 million deaths (95% UI 829 000-1 316 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 250 000 deaths (192 000-325 000) attributable to bacterial AMR. The largest fatal AMR burden was attributed to lower respiratory and thorax infections (119 000 deaths [92 000-151 000], or 48% of all estimated bacterial pathogen AMR deaths), bloodstream infections (56 000 deaths [37 000-82 000], or 22%), intra-abdominal infections (26 000 deaths [17 000-39 000], or 10%), and tuberculosis (18 000 deaths [3850-39 000], or 7%). Seven leading pathogens were collectively responsible for 821 000 deaths (636 000-1 051 000) associated with resistance in this region, with four pathogens exceeding 100 000 deaths each: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, and Staphylococcus aureus. Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae and meticillin-resistant S aureus were shown to be the leading pathogen-drug combinations in 25 and 16 countries, respectively (53% and 34% of the whole region, comprising 47 countries) for deaths attributable to AMR.

INTERPRETATION

This study reveals a high level of AMR burden for several bacterial pathogens and pathogen-drug combinations in the WHO African region. The high mortality rates associated with these pathogens demonstrate an urgent need to address the burden of AMR in Africa. These estimates also show that quality and access to health care and safe water and sanitation are correlated with AMR mortality, with a higher fatal burden found in lower resource settings. Our cross-country analyses within this region can help local governments to leverage domestic and global funding to create stewardship policies that target the leading pathogen-drug combinations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Intracranial stenting compared to medical treatment alone for intracranial atherosclerosis patients: An updated meta-analysis

Objective

Stroke is the second-leading cause of death globally. Intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) represents 10-15% of ischemic strokes in Western countries and up to 47% in Asian countries. Patients with ICAS have an especially high risk of stroke recurrence. The aim of this meta-analysis is to reassess recurrent stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and other outcomes with stenting versus best medical management for symptomatic ICAS.

Methods

The search protocol was developed a priori according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The OVID Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases were searched from inception to August 14th, 2022.

Results

This Meta-analysis Included Four Randomized Controlled Trials (Rcts), With A Total Number Of 991 Patients. The Mean Age Of Participants Was 57 Years. The Total Number Of Intracranial Stenting Patients Was 495, And The Number Of Medical Treatment Patients Was 496. The Included Studies Were Published Between 2011 And 2022. Two Studies Were Conducted In The Usa, And The Other Two In China. All Included Studies Compared Intracranial Stenting To Medical Treatment For Icas.

Conclusions

In patients with ischemic stroke due to symptomatic severe intracranial atherosclerosis, the rate of 30-day ischemic stroke, 30-day intracerebral hemorrhage, one-year stroke in territory or mortality favored the medical treatment alone without intracranial stenting. The risk of same-territory stroke at last follow-up, disabling stroke at last follow-up, and mortality did not significantly favor either group. Intracranial stenting for atherosclerosis did not result in significant benefit over medical treatment.

Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.

FINDINGS

Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of off-hour mechanical thrombectomy therapy on outcomes for acute ischemic stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The impact of off-hours and on-hours mechanical thrombectomy (MT) treatment for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is not well understood. We conducted a systematic review and met-analysis comparing outcomes between patients undergoing off-hours MT versus on-hours MT.

METHODS

This study is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses recommendations. A systematic literature review of the English language literature was conducted using Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, and PubMed databases. We included all original studies comparing off-hour and on-hour outcomes or time metrics in AIS undergoing MT. R software version 4.3.1 and the 'meta' statistical package were used to analyze all the data presented in this study.

RESULTS

We included 26 studies with 82,850 patients. Patients undergoing MT during off-hours achieved lower rates of 90-day functional independence (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-0.99; p = 0.04) and successful recanalization (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81-0.98; p = 0.014). Patients undergoing off-hours MT experienced similar rates of 90-day mortality (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.96-1.19; p = 0.21) and sICH (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.85-1.28; p = 0.674). Patients in the off-hour group experienced longer onset to door time (MD = 12.23 min; 95% CI 4.53-19.93; p = 0.002), imaging to puncture time (MD = 10.59 min; 95% CI 4.00-17.19; p = 0.002), and door to recanalization time (MD = 13.31 min; 95% CI 4.60-22.03; p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing MT for AIS during off-hours experienced lower rates of functional independence. This may be attributed to treatment delays during off-hours. Future studies should work to optimize hospital workflows and identify factors which may contribute to treatment delays.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat.

Methods

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

Findings

We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR.

Interpretation

Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Mechanical Thrombectomy for Pediatric Large Vessel Occlusions : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute intracranial large vessel occlusion (LVO) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality among children; however, unlike in adults, no clinical trial has investigated the benefit of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in pediatric LVO. Thus, MT remains an off-label procedure for pediatric stroke.

PURPOSE

To investigate the efficacy and safety of MT in pediatric LVO.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials databases. Studies reporting safety and efficacy outcomes for endovascular treatment of pediatric LVO were included. Data regarding recanalization, functional outcome, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), and mortality were extracted from the included studies. Functional outcome was assessed with the modified Rankin scale (mRS). A fixed or random-effects model was used to calculate pooled event rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

In this study 11 studies comprising 215 patients were included. The successful recanalization rate was 90.3% (95% CI = 85.77-95.11%), and complete recanalization was achieved in 52.7% (95% CI = 45.09-61.62%) of the cases. The favorable (mRS = 0-2) and excellent (mRS = 0-1) outcome rates were 83.3% (95% CI = 73.54-94.50%) and 59.5% (95% CI = 44.24-80.06%), respectively. The overall sICH prevalence was 0.59% (95% CI = 0-3.30%) and mortality rate was 3.2% (95% CI = 0.55-7.38%).

CONCLUSION

In our meta-analysis, MT demonstrated a promising safety and efficacy profile for pediatric patients, with consistently high efficacy outcomes and low complication rates. Our results support the utilization of MT in pediatric LVOs; however, prospective studies are still needed to further establish the role of pediatric MT as a first-line treatment strategy.

Management of Adult Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformations: An Updated Network Meta-Analysis

The management of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (ubAVMs) is a complex challenge to neurovascular practitioners. This meta-analysis aimed to identify the optimal management of ubAVMs comparing conservative management, embolization, radiosurgery, microsurgical resection, and multimodality. The search strategy was developed a priori according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We searched the Ovid Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases to identify relevant papers. Using R version 4.1.1., a frequentist network meta-analysis was conducted to compare different management modalities for the ubAVMs. Overall, the conservative group had the lowest risk of rupture (P-score=0.77), and the lowest rate of complications was found in the conservative group (P-score=1). Among different interventions, the multimodality group had the highest rupture risk (P-score=0.34), the lowest overall complications (P-score=0.75), the best functional improvement (P-score=0.65), and the lowest overall mortality (P-score=0.8). However, multimodality treatment showed a significantly higher risk of rupture (odds ratio [OR]=2.13; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]=1.18-3.86) and overall complication rate (OR=5.56; 95% CI=3.37-9.15) compared to conservative management; nevertheless, there were no significant differences in overall mortality or functional independence when considered independently. Conservative management is associated with the lowest rupture risk and complication rate overall. A multimodal approach is the best option when considering mortality rates and functional improvement in the context of existing morbidity/symptoms. Microsurgery, embolization, and radiosurgery alone are similar to the natural history in terms of functional improvement and mortality, but have higher complication rates.

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

BACKGROUND

Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres.

METHODS

This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low-middle-income countries.

RESULTS

In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of 'single-use' consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low-middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia.

CONCLUSION

This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high- and low-middle-income countries.

The diagnostic performance of artificial intelligence algorithms for identifying M2 segment middle cerebral artery occlusions: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based algorithms have been developed to facilitate rapid and accurate computed tomography angiography (CTA) assessment in proximal large vessel occlusion (LVO) acute ischemic stroke, including internal carotid artery and M1 occlusions. In clinical practice, however, the detection of medium vessel occlusion (MeVO) represents an ongoing diagnostic challenge in which the added value of AI remains unclear.

PURPOSE

To assess the diagnostic performance of AI platforms for detecting M2 occlusions.

METHODS

Studies that report the diagnostic performance of AI-based detection of M2 occlusions were screened, and sensitivity and specificity data were extracted using the semi-automated AutoLit software (Nested Knowledge, MN) platform. STATA (version 16 IC; Stata Corporation, College Station, Texas, USA) was used to conduct all analyses.

RESULTS

Eight studies with a low risk of bias and significant heterogeneity were included in the quantitative and qualitative synthesis. The pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity of AI platforms for M2 occlusion detection were 64% (95% CI, 53 to 74%) and 97% (95% CI, 84 to 100%), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) in the SROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.83).

CONCLUSION

The current performance of the AI-based algorithm makes it more suitable as an adjunctive confirmatory tool rather than as an independent one for M2 occlusions. With the rapid development of such algorithms, it is anticipated that newer generations will likely perform much better.

Aspiration thrombectomy versus stent retriever thrombectomy alone for acute ischemic stroke: evaluating the overlapping meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Previous studies comparing a direct aspiration first pass technique (ADAPT) and stent retrievers have inconsistent methodologies and data reporting, limiting the ability to accurately assimilate data from different studies that would inform treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a systematic review to discuss and compare the findings of all relevant meta-analysis studies comparing the efficacy of the ADAPT and stent retriever techniques.

METHODS

The study was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), where meta-analyses comparing the efficacy of the ADAPT technique and stent retrievers in the treatment of AIS were included. We extracted all relevant data from the included studies and assessed the quality of the included meta-analyses using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Review (AMSTAR-2).

RESULTS

Seven relevant studies met our inclusion criteria and were suitable for the qualitative synthesis. All included studies obtained data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational investigations (including levels II, III, and IV). At the same time, none of them used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) for quality assessment. In accordance with AMSTAR-2, two studies were rated 'high', while the other five were rated 'moderate'.

CONCLUSIONS

Present evidence is insufficient to clarify the superiority of one modality over the other. Further RCTs on this comparison must be conducted prior to designing further meta-analyses or making conclusive interpretations. Procedure duration and cost should be taken into consideration for any future studies.

The impact of funding on the quality and interpretation of systematic reviews of mechanical thrombectomy in stroke patients

BACKGROUND

Funding may impact the quality and findings of systematic reviews (SRs). We aimed to compare the methodological quality of funded and non-funded SRs that investigated the outcomes in ischemic stroke patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search strategy in different databases, including Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline (including epub ahead of print, in-process & other non-indexed citations), PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection to retrieve all relevant SRs. Random sequence generation matched each funded SR with a non-funded one. A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR)-2 tool was used to assess the bias and quality of the included SRs. We also used uni- and multivariate analysis to perform our analysis, and results were expressed in odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

We retrieved 150 articles, which were randomized and matched into 100 SRs, including 50 funded and 50 non-funded studies. By multivariate analysis, we found that including randomized clinical trials (RCTs) (OR: 5.7; 95% CI: 1.8-17.8; p = 0.003) and reporting conflict of interests (OR: 5.2; 95 CI: 1.1-24; p = 0.036) were the only significant differences between funded and non-funded SRs. No significant differences were found regarding the overall confidence for low-quality (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.09-3.2; p = 0.49) and moderate/high-quality SRs (OR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.02-1.87; p = 0.14).

CONCLUSION

Funded studies tend to include RCTs more often and report conflict of interests with no significant impact on overall confidence.

Carotid endarterectomy versus carotid stenting for asymptomatic carotid stenosis: Evaluating the overlapping meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials

Background

Asymptomatic carotid stenosis is associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke. The management of asymptomatic carotid stenosis ranges from open surgical approaches, minimally invasive endovascular interventions, and medical therapeutics. However, the research synthesis comparing these interventions, as shown by the scattered and overlapping published meta-analysis, has been inconsistent and non-comprehensive.

Methods

Using previously-employed methods, we searched for and compared published meta-analyses comparing carotid endarterectomy and carotid stenting. A comprehensive search was conducted for all relevant studies published until November 13th, 2021, using the following databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, OVID, and Google Scholar.

Results

Five meta-analysis studies were included in this review. In summary, clinical findings were: carotid endarterectomy reduced the rate of ischemic stroke and stroke-related mortality, but led to a higher rate of intraoperative cranial nerve injury. There was no significant difference between carotid endarterectomy and carotid stenting in ipsilateral stroke and myocardial infarction events.

Conclusions

The clinical findings favor the carotid endarterectomy over the carotid stenting in terms of stroke incidence (overall and minor events) and stroke-related mortality rates. However, the carotid stenting was superior to the carotid endarterectomy in the events of cranial nerve injury during the intervention.

Noninvasive ventilation in COVID-19 patients aged ≥ 70 years-a prospective multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is a promising alternative to invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) with a particular importance amidst the shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the use of NIV in Europe and factors associated with outcomes of patients treated with NIV.

METHODS

This is a substudy of COVIP study-an international prospective observational study enrolling patients aged ≥ 70 years with confirmed COVID-19 treated in ICU. We enrolled patients in 156 ICUs across 15 European countries between March 2020 and April 2021.The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Cohort included 3074 patients, most of whom were male (2197/3074, 71.4%) at the mean age of 75.7 years (SD 4.6). NIV frequency was 25.7% and varied from 1.1 to 62.0% between participating countries. Primary NIV failure, defined as need for endotracheal intubation or death within 30 days since ICU admission, occurred in 470/629 (74.7%) of patients. Factors associated with increased NIV failure risk were higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (OR 3.73, 95% CI 2.36-5.90) and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) on admission (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.06-2.00). Patients initially treated with NIV (n = 630) lived for 1.36 fewer days (95% CI - 2.27 to - 0.46 days) compared to primary IMV group (n = 1876).

CONCLUSIONS

Frequency of NIV use varies across European countries. Higher severity of illness and more severe frailty were associated with a risk of NIV failure among critically ill older adults with COVID-19. Primary IMV was associated with better outcomes than primary NIV. Clinical Trial Registration NCT04321265 , registered 19 March 2020, https://clinicaltrials.gov .

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of COVID 19 on the outcomes of thrombectomy in stroke patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

We aimed to conduct the current meta-analysis to provide better insight into the efficacy of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in managing COVID-19 patients suffering from a stroke. An electronic search was conducted through eight databases for collecting the current evidence about the efficacy of MT in stroke patients with COVID-19 until 18 December 2021. The results were reported as the pooled prevalence rates and the odds ratios (ORs), with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Out of 648 records, we included nine studies. The prevalence of stroke patients with COVID-19 who received MT treatment was with TICI ≥2b 79% (95%CI: 73-85), symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage 6% (95%CI: 3-11), parenchymal haematoma type 1, 11.1% (95%CI: 5-23), and mortality 29% (95%CI: 24-35). On further comparison of MT procedure between stroke patients with COVID 19 to those without COVID-19, we found no significant difference in terms of TICI ≥2b score (OR: 0.85; 95%CI: 0.03-23; p = 0.9). However, we found that stroke patients with COVID-19 had a significantly higher mortality rate than stroke patients without COVID-19 after MT procedure (OR: 2.99; 95%CI: 2.01-4.45; p < 0.001). Stroke patients with COVID-19 can be safely and effectively treated with MT, with comparable reperfusion and complication rates to those without the disease.

Neuroprotection in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Battle Against the Biology of Nature

Stroke is the second most common cause of global death following coronary artery disease. Time is crucial in managing stroke to reduce the rapidly progressing insult of the ischemic penumbra and the serious neurologic deficits that might follow it. Strokes are mainly either hemorrhagic or ischemic, with ischemic being the most common of all types of strokes. Thrombolytic therapy with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator and endovascular thrombectomy are the main types of management of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). In addition, there is a vital need for neuroprotection in the setting of AIS. Neuroprotective agents are important to investigate as they may reduce mortality, lessen disability, and improve quality of life after AIS. In our review, we will discuss the main types of management and the different modalities of neuroprotection, their mechanisms of action, and evidence of their effectiveness after ischemic stroke.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Successful mechanical thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke: revascularization grade and functional independence

Most studies define the technical success of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) as a Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (TICI) revascularization grade of 2b or higher. However, growing evidence suggests that TICI 3 is the best angiographic predictor of improved functional outcomes. To assess the association between successful TICI revascularization grades and functional independence at 90 days, we performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis of thrombectomy studies that reported TICI scores and functional outcomes, measured by the modified Rankin Scale, using the semi-automated AutoLit software platform. Forty studies with 8691 patients were included in the quantitative synthesis. Across TICI, modified TICI (mTICI), and expanded TICI (eTICI), the highest rate of good functional outcomes was observed in patients with TICI 3 recanalization, followed by those with TICI 2c and TICI 2b recanalization, respectively. Rates of good functional outcomes were similar among patients with either TICI 2c or TICI 3 grades. On further sensitivity analysis of the eTICI scale, the rates of good functional outcomes were equivalent between eTICI 2b50 and eTICI 2b67 (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.25). We conclude that near complete or complete revascularization (TICI 2c/3) is associated with higher rates of functional outcomes after EVT.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Vitamin D and its' role in Parkinson's disease patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. A review article

A novel coronavirus reportedly called 2019-nCoV started to spread around the world at the end of 2019. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was later renamed after links with SARS were observed. Multiple studies have reported possible connections between the COVID-19 virus and neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's disease. Theories support that vitamin D deficiency plays a part in the pathogenicity of Parkinson's disease or the credibility of the associated dopamine system. Administration of vitamin D3 was shown to significantly enhance the motor and non-motor manifestations of Parkinson's disease and enhance the quality of life. Also, multiple recent reviews have shown specific ways in which vitamin D reduces the risk of pathogenic infections. Recent studies supported the potential role of vitamin D in reducing the risk of COVID-19 infections and mortality. On the immunological level, immune response regulation remains one of the well-recognized actions of vitamin D. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to complications in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and Parkinson's disease. Whereas more studies are required, Vitamin D supplementation with a moderate and well-calculated dosage of vitamin D3 in patients with Parkinson's disease can help minimize the risk and burden of COVID-19 complications.

Impact of COVID-19 on neurosurgical service: A one-year experience from a provincial countryside hospital in a rural area in north Egypt

Background

Globally, there is a shooting pandemic that affected many healthcare systems. Healthcare facilities had to set up strategies to avoid exhaustion while facing a catastrophic health problem. Vaccines or perfect therapies were not available over a long pandemic time and also no certified immunity against that disease is guaranteed. Therefore, it is probable that healthcare systems will face it for an exceptionally long period. That already had a grave effect on the strategy of daily practice of different specialties’ services at healthcare centers.

Methods

We tried simply to share a countryside hospital’s expertise in managing neurosurgical cases amid a dreadful health crisis. Healthcare workers’ safety and patient safety were typical priorities for neurosurgical service at Damietta Specialized Hospital. We expose the lines of management, triaging cases, the methods of handling confirmed and suspected neurosurgical patients, and strategies for discharging and following up patients. We identified hospital admission and discharge records starting from February 2020 till February 2021 to track the neurosurgical case burden, the state of service offered and the rate of infection among healthcare workers who participated in surgeries.

Results

At the peak time of the COVID‑19 pandemic in Egypt starting from February 2020 till February 2021, we have admitted about 500 neurosurgical patients. About 400 (80%) of them did surgeries according to the triaging protocol of the hospital. About 150 (30%) of those who did surgeries were urgent and the rest were borderline or semi‑urgent. About 20 (4%) were tested COVID-19 positive and six of them died due to acute respiratory distress syndrome. Only two mortality cases were reported due to post-operative complications and not related to SARS‑CoV‑2 infection. The rest of the cases (97.6%) were discharged for follow‑up without complications. No neurosurgeons but three anesthesia staff were infected with SARS‑CoV‑2. A successful undisturbed neurosurgical care was available for patients during COVID-19 time.

Conclusions

Following the suggested strategies, a rural area-serving hospital managed to provide uninterrupted neurosurgical care amid COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt. Rural areas in developing countries are in need of strategies to deal with pandemics in the future without dismantling the normal health system, especially for life‑saving cases in a critical specialty as neurosurgery.

Analyzing outcomes of neurosurgical operations performed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt. A matched single-center cohort study

Background

Since the emergence of the first COVID-19 case in Wuhan, the virus affected several health care systems. Globally, the COVID-19 has a transforming effect on health care provision. Substantial evidence was clear that the global surgical services were impacted. The field of neurosurgery was primarily affected, and most elective surgeries were suspended. There are no current reports from Egypt that describe the mortality outcome of neurosurgical procedures in the context of the pandemic.

Methods

We performed that study at a large tertiary center in Egypt (Cairo University Hospital). It is a single-center matched cohort study.

Results

Our results examined about 346 patients earlier during the COVID-19 pandemic. About 46 (13.29%) were unmatched, so we excluded them from the final analysis of the data. About 300 patients' were matched to 304 patients' before the pandemic in 2019. The mortality outcome of neurosurgical interventions was higher during the pandemic.

Conclusions

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the mortality outcome of neurosurgical procedures was higher than on regular days at our center. The anesthesia time was prolonged while the operation time was shortened. We strongly suggest further multicenter studies to assess the effect of COVID-19 on neurosurgical mortality and functional outcome.

Neurological problems in the context of COVID-19 infection in Egypt. A multicenter retrospective analysis

Background

COVID–19 infection has spread so fast in both low– and high–income countries. In December 2019, an outbreak of a respiratory disease occurred in China, and later, it involved different countries. Acute neurological insults are more likely to occur in severely infected patients.

Methods

We tried to evaluate patients with selective criteria including, the age of participants 18 and older with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2, and developed neurological complications post COVID-19 infection. An overall data of 1500 patients were collected from neurological and primary health care departments. About 970 of them had neurological problems. Patients-related data were gathered and assembled from the patients’ records at participating hospitals from the Ministry of Health and university hospitals.

Results

We presented the results according to several variables including, regional distribution, reasons of presentation, neurological complications, follow-ups, and survival outcome.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, we conducted the first retrospective analysis for neurological problems related to COVID-19 infection in Egypt. COVID-19 patients present with a variety of central and peripheral neurological symptoms, the pathogenic mechanisms of which have not been explained. Robust investigations of the neurological presentations of COVID-19 infection should be recruited for better understanding of the possible association. Moreover, further explaining the pathophysiologic mechanisms will help in designing proper treatment plans.

Individual and Institutional Factors Preventing Completion of Research by Medical Graduate Students at Cairo University: Questionnaire Study

BACKGROUND

Medical research plays a significant role in advancing the level of health care worldwide. This research is a crucial part of the development of any educational system. In developing countries, the publication rate related to the medical sciences is lower than that in developed countries.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to explore the causes of delay in publishing research and the factors that hinder the completion of master's degree projects in a group of medical graduate students at Cairo University Faculty of Medicine.

METHODS

A web-based questionnaire was introduced to approximately 150 medical graduates in different specialties through social media. The questionnaire aimed to investigate the reasons for delays in publishing master's degree manuscripts after graduation among a group of medical graduates.

RESULTS

Of the graduates contacted, 130 responded to the web-based survey. The ages of the participants ranged from 23-38 years (SD 3.88); 72 of them were male, and 58 were female. Causes of noncompletion of manuscripts were analyzed; lack of proper research training and the absence of supportive mentorship were top reasons. We found a significant relationship between being married and failing to complete the assigned project from its start up to publication. Moreover, we found that the frequency of nonfulfillment increased among those who experienced poor mentorship.

CONCLUSIONS

Several factors are contributing to the delay in publication of medical manuscripts related to research projects by medical graduates of the Cairo University Faculty of Medicine. Pensive supervision must be implemented to decipher the persistent institutional problems that obstruct research progress.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Optic neuritis post-COVID-19 infection. A case report with meta-analysis

Background

In December 2019, a global pandemic of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has invaded entire the world. The virus associated with the COVID-19 infections is SARS-CoV-2; the infections are mainly pulmonary manifesting as severe respiratory complications such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. However, there are some extra-pulmonary manifestations that are reported to be associated with SARS-CoV-2 from the published literature. We aim to report a case manifested as post-COVID-19 optic neuritis, in addition to make a quantitative analysis (meta-analysis) for the published similar case reports around the world.

Methods

We followed CARE guidelines for case reports. Also, we followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

Case presentation

A 32-year-old male patient with no previous relevant medical history, presented to the ophthalmology clinic in a tertiary hospital. He complained of a sudden drop of vision in his left eye, throbbing left sided headaches, central scotoma, color depth affection, elevated intra-ocular pressure; two weeks post-COVID-19 infection.

Results

Post-COVID optic neuritis is a possible neurological complication of the novel coronavirus infection. It was shown that females were more affected by optic neuritis and retinal complications, the left eye is more liable to drop of visual acuity post-COVID-19 infection; while there was no significant difference between both eyes regarding accompanied vision loss or blindness.

Conclusions

Optic neuritis either unilateral or bilateral could be one of the possible viral manifestations after COVID-19 infection.

Specific Preoperative Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Semi-quantitative Markers Can Correlate With Vascularity in Specific Areas of Glioblastoma Tissue and Predict Recurrence

Background: Glioblastoma is one of the most aggressive tumours despite all advanced therapies. We aimed to investigate the correlation between qualitative markers of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging and vascularity in different tumour regions and elucidate their potential in predicting recurrence.

Methods: Radiological markers of vascularity as wash-in rate, washout rate, and capillary time to peak in different single tumour regions were extracted for all glioblastoma patients before being surgically resected using preoperative dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI). Tissue samples were obtained from different intratumoral regions and peritumoral oedema and evaluated for the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF).

Results: Two hundred sixty individuals were included in the final analysis, with 180 dead ones and 80 survivors. Radio- and chemo-therapy were received by all surviving patients and 77.8% (n= 140) of the dead ones. The mean time to peak, in seconds, was longest at the peritumoral oedema region (71.7±23.5), followed by the tumour's necrotic centre (50.0±28.5) and its periphery (2.9±1.8). The expression of VEGF at the peritumoral edema region was inversely correlated to the washout rate at the periphery (r= -0.66; P-value= 0.014) and positively correlated to peritumoral TTP (r= 0.94; P-value< 0.001).

Conclusion: Using DCE-MRI, VEGF expression may be used as a non-invasive marker to estimate tumour grade for clinical diagnosis and treatment. Moreover, the risk of glioblastoma recurrence could be determined by evaluating the washout rate at the tumour's periphery. Further large-scale studies are needed to validate the results and to have concrete evidence.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the management of glioma patients around the world. An evidence-based review

Background

The coronavirus pandemic has affected many health care services worldwide since the emergence of the first case in Wuhan. Surgical neuro-oncology care is a fundamental part of hospital services, making it susceptible to strategic changes amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

An electronic search on several databases (PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and Google Scholar) from the beginning of the pandemic to the end of 2020, each paper was reviewed independently. The publication inclusion and exclusion criteria were done using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines.

Results

Eight studies were found to be eligible for our meta-analysis. Most of the studies were on a retrospective basis, except one which was retrospective and prospective. An overall of 951 glioma patients’ were included for surgical admission from the beginning of the pandemic until 2020. Seventy-four patients' had mortality outcomes, and 250 patients had complications for both surgical admitted and non-surgical admitted purposes.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, we made the first systematic review and meta-analysis regarding the management of glioma patients’ during the pandemic of COVID-19. Our main findings are that the number of surgical admissions for glioma patients’ did not significantly differ between COVID-19 negative and COVD-19 positive cases; however, surprisingly, we found that both overall complications and mortality outcomes were more significant COVID-19 negative patients’ from the reported studies.

SARS-CoV-2 associated viral encephalitis with mortality outcome

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019; apart from common conditions such as cough, fever, and severe respiratory complications, difficulty in breathing, including tachypnea, new studies on neurological manifestations have gained public interest.

Case report

An 89-year-old man was admitted to the neurocritical care department in a specialized hospital with headache, dizziness, hyperpyrexia, myalgia, rash, and tremors. MRI showed viral encephalitis near to basal ganglia and thalami.

Discussion

Coronaviruses interfere with target cells by membrane-bound spike proteins. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 was identified as an input receptor for SARS-CoV-2. Due to its wide pattern of expression, COVID-19 was shown to affect several organs, including the central nervous system, where the receptor is mainly expressed as neurons.

Conclusions

In the current pandemic, there is a rising number of global infections, the aim of our case to increase the awareness about SARS-CoV-2 possible complications, even if there are possible further mutations for the virus, especially in the central nervous system.

Featuring how calcium channels and calmodulin affect glioblastoma behavior. A review article

Glioblastoma (GBM) is considered to be the most aggressive primary brain tumor with an extremely bad prognosis. Recurrence after treatment is a major problem with a survival rate for one year ranging about 39.7%. Ideal outcomes are still difficult to be achieved despite the recent treatment combinations. The ultimate capacity to regrow after resection is considered to be related to the availability of self-regenerating populations of stem cells. We made a literature review interpreting how calcium channels and calcium-regulated proteins mechanistically elaborate glioblastoma virulence in different ways. Calcium channels, and calcium-regulated proteins have shown diverse interconnected roles in shaping different aspects of GBM biology as indicated in some experimental studies. The beneficial prospective of those roles granting GBM different aggressive potentials pose variable applications in targeted therapy whether it is experimental or clinical trials.