Association of cigarette and electronic cigarette use patterns with all-cause mortality: A national cohort study of 145,390 US adults

OBJECTIVE

While e-cigarette use is associated with adverse cardiopulmonary health effects, the mortality risks associated with e-cigarette use alone and combined with smoking remain unexamined.

METHODS

Data between 2014 and 2018 were obtained from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), an annual cross-sectional survey of US adults. All-cause mortality and date of death were obtained via linkage of the NHIS to the National Death Index through December 31, 2019. A 6-category composite cigarette (never, former, current) and e-cigarette (current, non-current) exposure variable was created. We examined the association of cigarette and e-cigarette use patterns with all-cause mortality using adjusted Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 145,390 participants (79,294 women [51.5%]; 60,560 aged 18-44 [47.4%]), 5220 deaths were observed over a median follow-up of 3.5 years (508,545 total person-years). Dual use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes was associated with higher mortality risk compared with non-current e-cigarette use in combination with never smoking (hazard ratio [HR] 2.44; 95% CI, 1.90-3.13) and had a risk that did not differ from current exclusive smoking (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.83-1.37). Current e-cigarette use in combination with former smoking was associated with a lower mortality risk than current exclusive cigarette smoking (HR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of e-cigarette use to smoking does not reduce mortality risk compared with exclusive smoking. However, transitioning completely from cigarettes to e-cigarettes may be associated with mortality risk reduction. Further research is needed to verify these findings in larger cohorts and over longer periods of follow-up.

Metabolic Disease and The Risk of Post-COVID Conditions: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective

To examine the influence of having a baseline metabolic disorder (diabetes, hypertension, and/or obesity) on the risk of developing new clinical sequelae potentially related to SARS-CoV-2 in a large sample of commercially insured adults in the US.

Design setting and participants

Deidentified data were collected from the IBM/Watson MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters (CCAE) Databases and Medicare Supplemental and Coordination of Benefits (MDCR) Databases from 2019 to 2021. A total of 839,344 adults aged 18 and above with continuous enrollment in the health plan were included in the analyses. Participants were grouped into four categories based on their COVID-19 diagnosis and whether they had at least one of the three common metabolic disorders at baseline (diabetes, obesity, or hypertension).

Measures and methods

ICD-10-CM codes were used to determine new symptoms and conditions after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as ending 21 days after initial diagnosis date, or index period for those who did not have a COVID-19 diagnosis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to create comparable reference groups. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Among the 772,377 individuals included in the analyses, 36,742 (4.8%) without and 20,912 (2.7%) with a baseline metabolic disorder were diagnosed with COVID-19. On average, COVID-19 patients with baseline metabolic disorders had more 2.4 more baseline comorbidities compared to those without baseline metabolic disorders. Compared to adults with no baseline metabolic condition, the risks of developing new clinical sequelae were highest among COVID-19 patients with a baseline metabolic condition (HRs ranging from 1.51 to 3.33), followed by those who had a baseline metabolic condition but with no COVID-19 infection (HRs ranging from 1.33 to 2.35), and those who had COVID-19 but no baseline metabolic condition (HRs ranging from 1.34 to 2.85).

Conclusions

In a large national cohort of commercially insured adults, COVID-19 patients with a baseline metabolic condition had the highest risk of developing new clinical sequelae post-acute infection phase, followed by those who had baseline metabolic condition but no COVID-19 infection and those who had COVID-19 but no baseline metabolic disorder.

Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Disparities in All-Cause Mortality Beyond the Acute Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

This cross-sectional study examines all-cause mortality in the US between March 2018 and May 2023 by sex, race and ethnicity, metropolitan status, and region.

Gaps in the type 2 diabetes care cascade: a national perspective using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database

BACKGROUND

Research out of South Africa estimates the total unmet need for care for those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes) at 80%. We evaluated the care cascade using South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database and assessed if HIV infection impacts progression through its stages.

METHODS

The cohort includes patients from government facilities with their first glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or plasma glucose (fasting (FPG); random (RPG)) measured between January 2012 to March 2015 in the NHLS. Lab-diagnosed diabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, FPG ≥ 7.0mmol/l, or RPG ≥ 11.1mmol/l. Cascade stages post diagnosis were retention-in-care and glycaemic control (defined as an HbA1c < 7.0% or FPG < 8.0mmol/l or RPG < 10.0mmol/l) over 24-months. We estimated gaps at each stage nationally and by people living with HIV (PLWH) and without (PLWOH).

RESULTS

Of the 373,889 patients tested for diabetes, 43.2% had an HbA1c or blood glucose measure indicating a diabetes diagnosis. Amongst those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 30.9% were retained-in-care (based on diabetes labs) and 8.7% reached glycaemic control by 24-months. Prevalence of lab-diagnosed diabetes in PLWH was 28.6% versus 47.3% in PLWOH. Among those with lab-diagnosed diabetes, 34.3% of PLWH were retained-in-care versus 30.3% PLWOH. Among people retained-in-care, 33.8% of PLWH reached glycaemic control over 24-months versus 28.6% of PLWOH.

CONCLUSIONS

In our analysis of South Africa's NHLS database, we observed that 70% of patients diagnosed with diabetes did not maintain in consistent diabetes care, with fewer than 10% reaching glycemic control within 24 months. We noted a disparity in diabetes prevalence between PLWH and PLWOH, potentially linked to different screening methods. These differences underscore the intricacies in care but also emphasize how HIV care practices could guide better management of chronic diseases like diabetes. Our results underscore the imperative for specialized strategies to bolster diabetes care in South Africa.

E-Cigarette Use Among US Adults in the 2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey

Importance

After the initial disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is unclear how patterns of e-cigarette use in the US have changed.

Objective

To examine recent patterns in current and daily e-cigarette use among US adults in 2021.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data from the 2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The BRFSS is the largest national telephone-based survey of randomly sampled adults in the US. Adults aged 18 years or older, residing in 49 US states (all except Florida), the District of Columbia, and 3 US territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands), were included in the data set. Data analysis was performed in January 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was age-adjusted prevalence of current and daily e-cigarette use overall and by participant characteristics, state, and territory. Descriptive statistical analysis was conducted, applying weights to account for population representation.

Results

This study included 414 755 BRFSS participants with information on e-cigarette use. More than half of participants were women (51.3%). In terms of race and ethnicity, 0.9% of participants were American Indian or Alaska Native, 5.8% were Asian, 11.5% were Black, 17.3% were Hispanic, 0.2% were Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, 62.2% were White, 1.4% were of multiple races or ethnicities, and 0.6% were of other race or ethnicity. Individuals aged 18 to 24 years comprised 12.4% of the study population. The age-standardized prevalence of current e-cigarette use was 6.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-7.1%), with almost half of participants using e-cigarettes daily (3.2% [95% CI, 3.1%-3.4%]). Among individuals aged 18 to 24 years, there was a consistently higher prevalence of e-cigarette use, with more than 18.6% reporting current use and more than 9.0% reporting daily use. Overall, among individuals reporting current e-cigarette use, 42.2% (95% CI, 40.7%-43.7%) indicated former combustible cigarette use, 37.1% (95% CI, 35.6%-38.6%) indicated current combustible cigarette use, and 20.7% (95% CI, 19.7%-21.8%) indicated never using combustible cigarettes. Although relatively older adults (aged ≥25 years) who reported current e-cigarette use were more likely to report former or current combustible cigarette use, younger adults (aged 18-24 years) were more likely to report never using combustible cigarettes. Notably, the proportion of individuals who reported current e-cigarette use and never using combustible cigarettes was higher in the group aged 18 to 20 years (71.5% [95% CI, 66.8%-75.7%]) compared with those aged 21 to 24 years (53.0% [95% CI, 49.8%-56.1%]).

Conclusion and Relevance

These findings suggest that e-cigarette use remained common during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among young adults aged 18 to 24 years (18.3% prevalence). Notably, 71.5% of individuals aged 18 to 20 years who reported current e-cigarette use had never used combustible cigarettes. These results underscore the rationale for the implementation and enforcement of public health policies tailored to young adults.

Health systems performance for hypertension control using a cascade of care approach in South Africa, 2011-2017

Hypertension is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. In South Africa, the government has employed a whole systems approach to address the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. We used a novel incident care cascade approach to measure changes in the South African health system's ability to manage hypertension between 2011 and 2017. We used data from Waves 1-5 of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to estimate trends in the hypertension care cascade and unmet treatment need across four successive cohorts with incident hypertension. We used a negative binomial regression to identify factors that may predict higher rates of hypertension control, controlling for socio-demographic and healthcare factors. In 2011, 19.6% (95%CI 14.2, 26.2) of individuals with incident hypertension were diagnosed, 15.4% (95%CI 10.8, 21.4) were on treatment and 7.1% had controlled blood pressure. By 2017, the proportion of individuals with diagnosed incident hypertension had increased to 24.4% (95%CI 15.9, 35.4). Increases in treatment (23.3%, 95%CI 15.0, 34.3) and control (22.1%, 95%CI 14.1, 33.0) were also observed, translating to a decrease in unmet need for hypertension care from 92.9% in 2011 to 77.9% in 2017. Multivariable regression showed that participants with incident hypertension in 2017 were 3.01 (95%CI 1.77, 5.13) times more likely to have a controlled blood pressure compared to those in 2011. Our data show that while substantial improvements in the hypertension care cascade occurred between 2011 and 2017, a large burden of unmet need remains. The greatest losses in the incident hypertension care cascades came before diagnosis. Nevertheless, whole system programming will be needed to sufficiently address significant morbidity and mortality related to having an elevated blood pressure.

Excess Mortality With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias as an Underlying or Contributing Cause During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Importance

Adults with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) are particularly vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deaths associated with ADRD increased substantially in pandemic year 1. It is unclear whether mortality associated with ADRD declined when better prevention strategies, testing, and vaccines became widely available in year 2.

Objective

To compare pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD between year 1 and year 2 overall and by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and place of death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This time series analysis used all death certificates of US decedents 65 years and older with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death from January 2014 through February 2022.

Exposure

COVID-19 pandemic era.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Pandemic-era excess deaths associated with ADRD were defined as the difference between deaths with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause observed from March 2020 to February 2021 (year 1) and March 2021 to February 2022 (year 2) compared with expected deaths during this period. Expected deaths were estimated using data from January 2014 to February 2020 fitted with autoregressive integrated moving average models.

Results

Overall, 2 334 101 death certificates were analyzed. A total of 94 688 (95% prediction interval [PI], 84 192-104 890) pandemic-era excess deaths with ADRD were estimated in year 1 and 21 586 (95% PI, 10 631-32 450) in year 2. Declines in ADRD-related deaths in year 2 were substantial for every age, sex, and racial and ethnic group evaluated. Pandemic-era ADRD-related excess deaths declined among nursing home/long-term care residents (from 34 259 [95% PI, 25 819-42 677] in year 1 to -22 050 [95% PI, -30 765 to -13 273] in year 2), but excess deaths at home remained high (from 34 487 [95% PI, 32 815-36 142] in year 1 to 28 804 [95% PI, 27 067-30 571] in year 2).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that large increases in mortality with ADRD as an underlying or contributing cause of death occurred in COVID-19 pandemic year 1 but were largely mitigated in pandemic year 2. The most pronounced declines were observed for deaths in nursing home/long-term care settings. Conversely, excess deaths at home and in medical facilities remained high in year 2.

Sociodemographic Differences in E-Cigarette Uptake and Perceptions of Harm

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to evaluate socioeconomic and racial/ethnic differences in e-cigarette uptake and harm perceptions about e-cigarettes among adults who smoke cigarettes in the U.S.

METHODS

Five waves of the U.S. Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2019) were used to assess transitions from exclusive cigarette smoking to (1) exclusive e-cigarette use, (2) dual use, and (3) nonuse of either product (N=7,172). Analyses (conducted in 2022) estimated differences in transitions and e-cigarette harm perceptions by race/ethnicity, income, and education.

RESULTS

Hispanic (OR=0.32; 95% CI=0.18, 0.54) and Black (OR=0.38; 95% CI=0.22, 0.65) adults were less likely than White adults to transition from exclusive cigarette to exclusive e-cigarette use after 1 year. Adults with a bachelor's degree (versus those with less than high school) (OR=2.57; 95% CI=1.49, 4.45) and adults making ≥$100,000/year (versus those making <$10,000) (OR=3.61; 95% CI=2.10, 6.22) were more likely to transition from exclusive cigarette to exclusive e-cigarette use. Hispanic and Black adults and those with lower income and education were more likely to perceive e-cigarettes as equally or more harmful than cigarettes, which in turn was associated with lower odds of transitioning from exclusive cigarette smoking to exclusive e-cigarette use (OR=0.62; 95% CI=0.47, 0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

Adults who were Hispanic, were Black, and/or had lower SES were less likely to use e-cigarettes to quit cigarettes. Findings provide preliminary evidence that differences in harm perceptions may contribute to disparities in e-cigarette transitions.

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar-Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug-Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021-Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar-Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.

Investigating the association of traditional and non-traditional tobacco product use with subclinical and clinical cardiovascular disease: The Cross-Cohort Collaboration-Tobacco working group rationale, design, and methodology

While the impact of combustible cigarette smoking on cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well-established, the longitudinal association of non-traditional tobacco products with subclinical and clinical CVD has not been fully explored due to: 1) limited data availability; and 2) the lack of well-phenotyped prospective cohorts. Therefore, there is the need for sufficiently powered well-phenotyped datasets to fully elucidate the CVD risks associated with non-cigarette tobacco products. The Cross-Cohort Collaboration (CCC)-Tobacco is a harmonized dataset of 23 prospective cohort studies predominantly in the US. A priori defined variables collected from each cohort included baseline characteristics, details of traditional and non-traditional tobacco product use, inflammatory markers, and outcomes including subclinical and clinical CVD. The definitions of the variables in each cohort were systematically evaluated by a team of two physician-scientists and a biostatistician. Herein, we describe the method of data acquisition and harmonization and the baseline sociodemographic and risk profile of participants in the combined CCC-Tobacco dataset. The total number of participants in the pooled cohort is 322782 (mean age: 59.7 ± 11.8 years) of which 76% are women. White individuals make up the majority (73.1%), although there is good representation of other race and ethnicity groups including African American (15.6%) and Hispanic/Latino individuals (6.4%). The prevalence of participants who never smoked, formerly smoked, and currently smoke combustible cigarettes is 50%, 36%, and 14%, respectively. The prevalence of current and former cigar, pipe, and smokeless tobacco is 7.3%, 6.4%, and 8.6%, respectively. E-cigarette use was measured only in follow-up visits of select studies, totaling 1704 former and current users. CCC-Tobacco is a large, pooled cohort dataset that is uniquely designed with increased power to expand knowledge regarding the association of traditional and non-traditional tobacco use with subclinical and clinical CVD, with extension to understudied groups including women and individuals from underrepresented racial-ethnic groups.

Comprehensive review of the national surveys that assess E-cigarette use domains among youth and adults in the United States

Surveillance of e-cigarette use among different population groups is important for the timely implementation and evaluation of tobacco regulatory policies. In this review, we identified 13 nationally representative, repeatedly conducted epidemiologic surveys that assess e-cigarette use among U.S. youth and/or adults and have been instrumental in e-cigarette surveillance. These surveys included National Youth Tobacco Survey, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, Monitoring the Future Survey, International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC) Youth Tobacco and Vaping Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, National Health Interview Survey, Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, Health Information National Trends Survey, Tobacco Products and Risk Perception Surveys, ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, and Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health. These surveys vary in scope and detail, with their unique strengths and the regulatory questions that can be answered using each survey data. We also highlighted the gaps in these surveys and made recommendations for improvement.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's mortality impact. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating factors, and inform response efforts. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,179,024 excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the pandemic (first: 634,830; second: 544,194). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties but increased in nonmetropolitan counties. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeastern counties, nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality by July 2021. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's rural impact grows.

Psychosocial stressors and current e-cigarette use in the youth risk behavior survey

BACKGROUND

This study explores the association between psychosocial stressors and current e-cigarette use among adolescents in the United States.

METHODS

We used data from 12,767 participants in the 2019 National Youth Risk Behavioral Survey to examine the association between psychosocial stressors (bullying, sexual assault, safety-related absence from school, depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, physical altercation, and weapon threats) and past-30-day e-cigarette use using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models. We examined the association for each stressor and then as a burden score (0-7). To compare the strength of the association between stressors and current e-cigarette use to current combustible cigarette use, we additionally examined the association between each stressor and current combustible cigarette use.

RESULTS

Approximately 32.7% reported current e-cigarette use. The weighted prevalence of current e-cigarette use was higher among individuals who experienced stressors than those who did not. For example, bullying (43.9% vs. 29.0%). Similar prevalence patterns were seen among other stressors. Individuals who experienced stressors had significantly higher adjusted odds of current e-cigarette use than those who did not (OR [Odds Ratio] range: 1.47-1.75). Similarly, individuals with higher burden scores had a higher prevalence (zero [20.5%], one [32.8%], two [41.4%], three [49.6%], four to seven [60.9%]) and higher odds of current e-cigarette use (OR range: 1.43-2.73) than those with a score of zero. The strength of the association between the stressors and e-cigarette use was similar to that between the stressors and combustible cigarette use.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates a significant association between psychosocial stressors and adolescent e-cigarette use, highlighting the potential importance of interventions, such as targeted school-based programs that address stressors and promote stress management, as possible means of reducing adolescent e-cigarette use. Future research directions include exploring underlying mechanisms linking stressors to e-cigarette use and evaluating the effectiveness of interventions addressing stressors in reducing adolescent e-cigarette use.

Patterns of tobacco product use and substance misuse among adolescents in the United States

Among adolescents, sole use is the most common pattern of e-cigarette use. However, concurrent use of e-cigarettes with other tobacco products is not uncommon and may be associated with high-risk behaviors. We used data from 12,767 participants in the 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Survey to examine the patterns of tobacco product use among youth in the US. First, we examined the prevalence of e-cigarette-specific patterns of tobacco use (nonuse[no tobacco product use], sole use[sole e-cigarette use], dual-use[e-cigarette and one other tobacco product], and poly use[e-cigarette and two or more other tobacco products]). Then, using multivariable Poisson regression, we assessed how the tobacco use patterns were associated with the misuse of nine substances of abuse (alcohol, marijuana, cocaine, ecstasy, hallucinogens, heroin, inhalants, injectables, and methamphetamines). 62.9% of youth reported nonuse of any tobacco product. The weighted prevalence of sole e-cigarette use, dual use, and poly use was 23.2%, 4.2%, and 3.3%, respectively. Across all the substances explored, the prevalence was highest among poly users, followed by dual users, sole users, and non-users. Compared to non-users, sole, dual, and poly users had 7.8(95 %CI:6.1-10.0), 14.3(95 %CI:10.8-18.8), and 19.7(95 %CI:15.0-25.9) times higher adjusted prevalence of reporting past-30-day binge drinking, after adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, and depressive symptoms. This pattern was seen across all the different substances explored. These findings highlight the high prevalence of substance misuse among youth who use tobacco products and the need to educate and counsel on substances of abuse among this population, particularly among poly-tobacco users.

Missing Americans: Early death in the United States-1933-2021

We assessed how many US deaths would have been averted each year, 1933-2021, if US age-specific mortality rates had equaled the average of 21 other wealthy nations. We refer to these excess US deaths as "missing Americans." The United States had lower mortality rates than peer countries in the 1930s-1950s and similar mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning in the 1980s, however, the United States began experiencing a steady increase in the number of missing Americans, reaching 622,534 in 2019 alone. Excess US deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 1,009,467 in 2020 and 1,090,103 in 2021. Excess US mortality was particularly pronounced for persons under 65 years. In 2020 and 2021, half of all US deaths under 65 years and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality from 2019 to 2021 would have been avoided if the United States had the mortality rates of its peers. In 2021, there were 26.4 million years of life lost due to excess US mortality relative to peer nations, and 49% of all missing Americans died before age 65. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of excess US deaths, although the majority of missing Americans were White.

A Longitudinal Study of Perceptions of the Massachusetts Menthol Ban and Its Impact on Smoking Behaviors among Marginalized Individuals

Menthol cigarettes have had a profound adverse effect on public health. On 1 June 2020, Massachusetts became the first state to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes. We explored how perceptions of the ban and smoking behaviors changed over time among a group of 27 individuals who smoked menthol cigarettes at our safety-net hospital. In a convergent mixed methods study, we administered questionnaires and interviews simultaneously at two timepoints: 1 month pre-ban and 6 months post-ban. Pre-ban, we assessed perceptions of the ban and anticipated smoking behaviors after the ban. Post-ban, we assessed participants' actual smoking behaviors and elicited suggestions to avoid unintended consequences that might undermine intended policy effects. Several respondents perceived the Massachusetts ban as positive because it could promote smoking cessation, prevent youth initiation, and mitigate unfair targeting of socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Others perceived the ban as an overreach of government policy, financially motivated, and unfairly targeting the Black community. Many continued to smoke menthol cigarettes obtained outside Massachusetts. Individuals suggested promoting tobacco treatment for people affected by the ban and a national ban to circumvent out-of-state purchasing of menthol cigarettes. Our findings suggest that in order to be most effective, healthcare systems must promote tobacco treatment and ensure that treatment is accessible to all individuals affected by the ban.

COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022

Importance

Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased.

Objective

To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023.

Exposures

Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Age-standardized death rates.

Results

There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

Cigarette‒E-cigarette Transitions and Respiratory Symptom Development

INTRODUCTION

E-cigarette use is associated with pulmonary inflammation, functional respiratory changes, and chronic lung disease. Most population-level E-cigarette research has utilized point-in-time measures of E-cigarette exposures, which may not generalize to adults who transition between cigarettes and E-cigarettes.

METHODS

Data obtained from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study were collected from 2013 to 2019 and analyzed in 2022. Three observations were created per respondent, with exposure intervals assessed over Waves 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4. Each wave of the exposure interval was classified as nonuse, exclusive E-cigarette use, exclusive smoking, or dual use, producing 16 possible cigarette‒E-cigarette transitions. The association between transitions and both dry nighttime cough and wheeze symptom development during follow-up were assessed using mixed-effects Poisson models.

RESULTS

Among 33,231 observations from 13,528 unique participants, transitioning from nonuse to exclusive E-cigarette use was associated with 1.62 times higher incidence rate of wheeze (incident rate ratio=1.62; 95% CI=1.12, 2.34) than persistent nonuse. There was no change in reported dry nighttime cough (incident rate ratio=0.84; 95% CI=0.52, 1.35) or wheeze (incident rate ratio=0.87; 95% CI=0.52, 1.46) in individuals who switched from cigarettes to E-cigarettes, whereas transitioning from dual use to E-cigarette use was associated with large reductions in both symptoms (incident rate ratio=0.58; 95% CI=0.39, 0.87 and incident rate ratio=0.36; 95% CI=0.20, 0.63, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

E-cigarette initiation among nonusers is associated with increased respiratory morbidity. Further research should assess the risks and benefits of E-cigarette‒assisted cigarette cessation given the reduction in symptom development rates among dual use to E-cigarette switchers.

Associations between mortality from COVID-19 and other causes: A state-level analysis

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high death toll from COVID-19 was accompanied by a rise in mortality from other causes of death. The objective of this study was to identify the relationship between mortality from COVID-19 and changes in mortality from specific causes of death by exploiting spatial variation in these relationships across US states.

METHODS

We use cause-specific mortality data from CDC Wonder and population estimates from the US Census Bureau to examine relationships at the state level between mortality from COVID-19 and changes in mortality from other causes of death. We calculate age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for three age groups, nine underlying causes of death, and all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the first full year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021) and the year prior (March 2019-February 2020). We then estimate the relationship between changes in cause-specific ASDR and COVID-19 ASDR using linear regression analysis weighted by the size of the state's population.

RESULTS

We estimate that causes of death other than COVID-19 represent 19.6% of the total mortality burden associated with COVID-19 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. At ages 25+, circulatory disease accounted for 51.3% of this burden while dementia (16.4%), other respiratory diseases (12.4%), influenza/pneumonia (8.7%) and diabetes (8.6%) also contribute. In contrast, there was an inverse association across states between COVID-19 death rates and changes in death rates from cancer. We found no state-level association between COVID-19 mortality and rising mortality from external causes.

CONCLUSIONS

States with unusually high death rates from COVID-19 experienced an even larger mortality burden than implied by those rates alone. Circulatory disease served as the most important route through which COVID-19 mortality affected death rates from other causes of death. Dementia and other respiratory diseases made the second and third largest contributions. In contrast, mortality from neoplasms tended to decline in states with the highest death rates from COVID-19. Such information may help to inform state-level responses aimed at easing the full mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Change in body weight and risk of hypertension after switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir in adults living with HIV: evidence from routine care in Johannesburg, South Africa

BACKGROUND

The integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir is recommended in World Health Organization guidelines, but is associated with weight gain. We evaluated weight change in patients switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Johannesburg, South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults (≥16 years) of black African ancestry with HIV who initiated ART between January 2010-December 2020. Patients were propensity score-matched 1:1 (unexposed i.e. remaining on efavirenz: exposed i.e. switched from efavirenz to dolutegravir) on sex, age, months on ART, first ART regimen, haemoglobin, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, viral load and CD4 count. We used linear regression to assess the effect of switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir on weight change and hypertension 12 months after exposure.

FINDINGS

We matched 794 patients switching to dolutegravir to 794 remaining on efavirenz. Exposed patients had a higher mean change in weight (1.78 kg; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.04,2.52 kg) from start of follow-up to 12 months vs. unexposed. We also found a 14.2 percentage point increase (95% CI: 10.6,17.7) in the risk of hypertension in those exposed to dolutegravir vs those that remained on efavirenz.

INTERPRETATION

In a real-world population, patients gained more weight and were at higher risk of hypertension after switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir than those remaining on efavirenz. Longer follow-up is needed, however, to determine if INSTI-associated weight gain is associated with changes in non-communicable disease risk over the long-term, or whether weight gain is sustained, as seen in clinical trials.

FUNDING

This study has been made possible by the generous support of the American People and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), under the terms of cooperative agreement cooperative Agreement 72067419CA00004. In addition to the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) 1K01MH105320-01A1.

Bariatric surgery and weight loss in the short- and long-term: Evidence from NHANES 2015-2018

The present study aimed to examine short- and long-term weight change in a nationally representative sample of US adults who reportedly underwent bariatric surgery. Individuals aged 20-64 at survey from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2015-2018 were included in the analyses (n = 6776). The primary comparison groups include 62 participants who underwent bariatric surgery, 1531 eligible but did not receive surgery, and 5183 not eligible for bariatric surgery. After adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbidity, adults who reported receiving bariatric surgery were 5.0 times (4.0-6.0) more likely to achieve at least 20% weight loss from maximum weight relative to those who were eligible but reported no surgery. The likelihood appeared to be higher when surgery was performed within 10 years (short-term, PR 5.5, 95% CI: 4.0, 7.0) relative to surgeries that were performed for 10 or more years (long-term, PR 3.6, 95% CI: 2.0, 5.3). In this nationally representative sample of US adults, respondents who received bariatric surgery achieved substantial and significant weight loss compared with those who were eligible and did not receive bariatric surgery. Weight loss appeared to be most apparent in the short term and persisted over the long term.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Racial/Ethnic Inequities in Mortality at Midlife in Minnesota

INTRODUCTION

Recent research underscores the exceptionally young age distribution of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. compared with that of international peers. This paper characterizes how high levels of COVID-19 mortality at midlife ages (45-64 years) are deeply intertwined with continuing racial inequity in COVID-19 mortality.

METHODS

Mortality data from Minnesota in 2020-2022 were analyzed in June 2022. Death certificate data (COVID-19 deaths N=12,771) and published vaccination rates in Minnesota allow vaccination and mortality rates to be observed with greater age and temporal precision than national data.

RESULTS

Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults aged <65 years were all more highly vaccinated than White populations of the same ages during most of Minnesota's substantial and sustained Delta surge and all the subsequent Omicron surges. However, White mortality rates were lower than those of all other groups. These disparities were extreme; at midlife ages (ages 45-64 years), during the Omicron period, more highly vaccinated populations had COVID-19 mortality that was 164% (Asian-American), 115% (Hispanic), or 208% (Black) of White COVID-19 mortality at these ages. In Black, Indigenous, and People of Color populations as a whole, COVID-19 mortality at ages 55-64 years was greater than White mortality at 10 years older.

CONCLUSIONS

This discrepancy between vaccination and mortality patterning by race/ethnicity suggests that if the current period is a pandemic of the unvaccinated, it also remains a pandemic of the disadvantaged in ways that can decouple from vaccination rates. This result implies an urgent need to center health equity in the development of COVID-19 policy measures.

Differences Between Reported COVID-19 Deaths and Estimated Excess Deaths in Counties Across the United States, March 2020 to February 2022

Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.

Prospective association between e-cigarette use frequency patterns and cigarette smoking abstinence among adult cigarette smokers in the United States

AIMS

To estimate the association of longitudinal patterns of e-cigarette use with cigarette smoking abstinence, after accounting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of longitudinal national cohort data. Using marginal structural models and four waves of the population assessment of tobacco and health (wave 1, 2013-14; wave 2, 2014-15; wave 3, 2015-16; wave 4, 2016-18), we estimated the association of vaping frequency across waves 2 and 3 with 12-month sustained cigarette smoking abstinence at wave 4, adjusting for time-dependent confounders at waves 1 and 2 and selection bias due to drop-out with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS/CASES

A total of 5699 adults (18+ years) who smoked cigarettes and did not vape at wave 1.

MEASUREMENTS

The exposure was vaping frequency at waves 2 and 3 (non-use, non-daily use, daily use), representing nine possible combinations of vaping frequency across two waves. Non-use at both waves was the exposure reference group. The primary outcome was sustained 12-month cigarette smoking abstinence at wave 4.

FINDINGS

Among 5699 adults who smoked cigarettes at wave 1, a total of 560 (9.8%) reported smoking abstinence at wave 4. Compared with nonuse at both waves, daily vaping at both waves [risk ratio (RR) = 3.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.59-5.64] and non-use at wave 2 followed by daily vaping at wave 3 (RR = 2.50, 95% CI = 1.66-3.77) were positively associated with smoking abstinence; non-daily vaping at both waves was inversely associated with smoking abstinence (RR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.11-0.75). Results persisted after accounting for misclassification of e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking abstinence and after restricting to participants with plans to quit smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

In a US cohort of adult smokers, longitudinal patterns of vaping frequency appear to predict smoking abstinence, even after accounting for several sources of systematic error. Consistent daily vaping is associated with increased chances of cigarette smoking abstinence, while consistent non-daily vaping is associated with decreased chances of smoking abstinence.

Increased all-cause mortality following occupational injury: a comparison of two states

OBJECTIVES

To measure the impact of lost-time occupational injuries on all-cause mortality in Washington State and, using the same data elements and study design, to determine whether the estimated impact was similar to previous estimates for New Mexico.

METHODS

We linked injuries in the Washington workers' compensation system with Social Security Administration data on earnings and mortality. We estimated Cox survival models of mortality for women and men with lost-time compared with medical-only injuries, adjusting for age, pre-injury earnings and industry. We used quantitative bias analysis to account for confounding by pre-injury smoking and obesity.

RESULTS

The estimated mortality HR was 1.24 for women (95% CI 1.21 to 1.28) and 1.22 for men (95% CI 1.20 to 1.24). After adjusting for unmeasured pre-injury smoking and obesity, the estimated HR for women was 1.10, 95% simulation interval (SI) 1.00 to 1.21; for men, it was 1.15, 95% SI 1.04 to 1.27.

CONCLUSIONS

All-cause mortality for Washington workers with lost-time injuries was higher than for those with medical-only injuries. Estimated HRs for Washington were consistent with those previously estimated for New Mexico, a less populous state with lower median wages and a different workers' compensation insurance mechanism. This suggests that the relationship between workplace injury and long-term mortality may be generalisable to other US states. These findings support greater efforts to enhance safety and to investigate factors that improve postinjury employment opportunities and long-term health. This association should be examined in additional locations, with different study conditions, or using additional data on pre-injury risk factors.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the Covid-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the overall impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that is not biased by differences in testing or cause-of-death assignment. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating and mitigating factors, and inform response efforts, including allocating resources to affected communities. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,159,580 excess deaths occurred during the first two years of the pandemic (first: 620,872; second: 538,708). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties, but increased in nonmetro counties, between the first and second years of the pandemic. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeast counties, beginning in February 2021, nonmetro South counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's disproportionate impact on rural areas continues to grow.

Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.

Motivations for E-cigarette use and associations with vaping frequency and smoking abstinence among adults who smoke cigarettes in the United States

INTRODUCTION

In observational studies, vaping daily is positively associated with cigarette smoking abstinence, while non-daily vaping is associated with less smoking abstinence (versus no e-cigarette use). It remains unknown whether cigarette smokers who vape daily have different motivations for using e-cigarettes than those who vape non-daily.

METHODS

Using latent class analysis and 10 self-reported reasons for vaping, we identified sub-groups of participants based on vaping motivations among 1544 adult (≥18 y) dual users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes at wave 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2016-2018). We examined the association of motivation sub-groups with vaping frequency at wave 4, and subsequent cigarette smoking abstinence at wave 5 (2018-2019). Additional analyses examined the association of vaping frequency with smoking abstinence before and after adjustment for motivation sub-groups.

RESULTS

Four distinct sub-groups of e-cigarette users emerged, including 54 % of participants who were "Vaping Enthusiasts", 20 % who vaped for "Convenience and Social Acceptability", 10 % classified as "Experimenters", and 16 % who vaped for "Quitting Smoking and Harm Reduction." The Convenience and Social Acceptability sub-group were less likely than "Vaping Enthusiasts" (AOR=0.29, 95 %CI[0.20-0.42]) and "Quitting Smoking and Harm Reduction" (AOR=0.41, 95 %CI[0.24-0.71]) classes to vape daily (versus non-daily). Sub-groups were not associated with smoking abstinence after one year. Adjustment for motivation sub-groups did not attenuate a positive association of daily vaping with smoking abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette smokers who vaped for convenience and social acceptability were less frequent e-cigarette users than those with other vaping motivations. Vaping motivations were not associated with subsequent smoking abstinence.

COVID-19 mortality and excess mortality among working-age residents in California, USA, by occupational sector: a longitudinal cohort analysis of mortality surveillance data

BACKGROUND

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, workers in essential sectors had higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality than those in non-essential sectors. It is unknown whether disparities in pandemic-related mortality across occupational sectors have continued to occur during the periods of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccine availability.

METHODS

In this longitudinal cohort study, we obtained data from the California Department of Public Health on all deaths occurring in the state of California, USA, from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. We restricted our analysis to residents of California who were aged 18-65 years at time of death and died of natural causes. We classified the occupational sector into nine essential sectors; non-essential; or unemployed or without an occupation provided on the death certificate. We calculated the number of COVID-19 deaths in total and per capita that occurred in each occupational sector. Separately, using autoregressive integrated moving average models, we estimated total, per-capita, and relative excess natural-cause mortality by week between March 1, 2020, and Nov 30, 2021, stratifying by occupational sector. We additionally stratified analyses of occupational risk into counties with high versus low vaccine uptake, categorising high-uptake regions as counties where at least 50% of the population were fully vaccinated according to US guidelines by Aug 1, 2021.

FINDINGS

From March 1, 2020, to Nov 30, 2021, 24 799 COVID-19 deaths were reported in residents of California aged 18-65 years and an estimated 28 751 (95% prediction interval 27 853-29 653) excess deaths. People working in essential sectors were associated with higher COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths than were those working in non-essential sectors, with the highest per-capita COVID-19 mortality in the agriculture (131·8 per 100 000 people), transportation or logistics (107·1 per 100 000), manufacturing (103·3 per 100 000), facilities (101·1 per 100 000), and emergency (87·8 per 100 000) sectors. Disparities were wider during periods of increased infections, including during the Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021, surge in infections, which was driven by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) and occurred during vaccine uptake. During the June 27 to Nov 27, 2021 surge, emergency workers had higher COVID-19 mortality (113·7 per 100 000) than workers from any other sector. Workers in essential sectors had the highest COVID-19 mortality in counties with low vaccination uptake, a difference that was more pronounced during the period of the delta infection surge during Nov 29, 2020, to Feb 27, 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Workers in essential sectors have continued to bear the brunt of high COVID-19 and excess mortality throughout the pandemic, particularly in the agriculture, emergency, manufacturing, facilities, and transportation or logistics sectors. This high death toll has continued during periods of vaccine availability and the delta surge. In an ongoing pandemic without widespread vaccine coverage and with anticipated threats of new variants, the USA must actively adopt policies to more adequately protect workers in essential sectors.

FUNDING

US National Institute on Aging, Swiss National Science Foundation, and US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Association of Weight at Different Ages and All-Cause Mortality Among Older Adults in the US

Objective: Assess the association of BMI and BMI change with mortality. Methods: Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) on participants born mainly in 1939 (n=4922), we investigated the associations between various measures of BMI across the life course (age 54 BMI; age 65 BMI; age 72 BMI; lifetime maximum BMI; BMI change between ages 54 and 65; BMI change between ages 65 and 72) and mortality. We also assessed whether these associations are mediated by late life health. Results: BMI at age 54 was more strongly associated with late life mortality than BMI at older ages. The association between BMI change and mortality varied based on the timing of weight change. Health at age 72, particularly self-rated health, diabetes, and physical functioning, mediated the observed associations. Conclusion: Knowing older people's weight at midlife and how their weight has changed may be more important in assessing late life mortality risk than their current weight.

Association of device type, flavours and vaping behaviour with tobacco product transitions among adult electronic cigarette users in the USA

BACKGROUND

Few studies assess whether electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) device characteristics or flavours impact longitudinal patterns of cigarette and e-cigarette use.

DESIGN

We examined data from waves 2-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2014-2018). Among adult (≥18 years) current e-cigarette users at wave 2 who were current smokers (dual users; n=1759) and former smokers (exclusive e-cigarette users; n=470), we classified participants into four use patterns at wave 3 (~12 months later) and wave 4 (~24 months later): (1) dual use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes; (2) exclusive cigarette smoking; (3) exclusive e-cigarette use; (4) non-use of both products. We used multinomial logistic regression to assess correlates of changing use patterns at 24 months, relative to no change, adjusting for sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

At 24 months, 26.5% of baseline exclusive e-cigarette users, and 9% of baseline dual users, abstained from both vaping and smoking. Participants who vaped non-tobacco flavours (vs tobacco flavours), and used refillable tank or modifiable devices (vs disposable, cartridges and other devices) were less likely to transition to non-use of both products and to exclusive cigarette smoking. Baseline daily vaping (vs non-daily) was positively associated with exclusive e-cigarette use at 24 months for baseline daily cigarette smokers, but negatively associated with exclusive e-cigarette use and non-use of both products at 24 months for baseline non-daily smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-tobacco flavours, daily vaping and modifiable e-cigarette devices may help some smokers abstain from cigarette smoking via transitioning to exclusive e-cigarette use, but are also associated with ongoing exclusive e-cigarette use.

Geographic and Temporal Patterns in Covid-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022

Prior research has established that American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, and Pacific Islander populations in the United States have experienced substantially higher mortality rates from Covid-19 compared to non-Hispanic white residents during the first year of the pandemic. What remains less clear is how mortality rates have changed for each of these racial/ethnic groups during 2021, given the increasing prevalence of vaccination. In particular, it is unknown how these changes in mortality have varied geographically. In this study, we used provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to produce age-standardized estimates of Covid-19 mortality by race/ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022 in each metro-nonmetro category, Census region, and Census division. We calculated changes in mortality rates between the first and second years of the pandemic and examined mortality changes by month. We found that when Covid-19 first affected a geographic area, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic populations experienced extremely high levels of Covid-19 mortality and racial/ethnic inequity that were not repeated at any other time during the pandemic. Between the first and second year of the pandemic, racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased-but were not eliminated-for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic AIAN residents. These inequities decreased due to reductions in mortality for these populations alongside increases in non-Hispanic white mortality. Though racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased, substantial inequities still existed in most geographic areas during the pandemic's second year: Non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic AIAN, and Hispanic residents reported higher Covid-19 death rates in rural areas than in urban areas, indicating that these communities are facing serious public health challenges. At the same time, the non-Hispanic white mortality rate worsened in rural areas during the second year of the pandemic, suggesting there may be unique factors driving mortality in this population. Finally, vaccination rates were associated with reductions in Covid-19 mortality for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white residents, and increased vaccination may have contributed to the decreases in racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality observed during the second year of the pandemic. Despite reductions in mortality, Covid-19 mortality remained elevated in nonmetro areas and increased for some racial/ethnic groups, highlighting the need for increased vaccination delivery and equitable public health measures especially in rural communities. Taken together, these findings highlight the continued need to prioritize health equity in the pandemic response and to modify the structures and policies through which systemic racism operates and has generated racial health inequities.

Longitudinal evidence on treatment discontinuation, adherence, and loss of hypertension control in four middle-income countries

Managing hypertension is a highly dynamic process, yet current evidence on hypertension control in middle-income countries (MICs) is largely based on cross-sectional data. Using multiple waves of population-based cohort data from four MICs (China, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa), we undertook a longitudinal investigation into how individuals with hypertension move through care over time. We classified adults aged 40 years and over (N = 8527) into care stages at both baseline and follow-up waves and estimated the probability of transitioning between stages using Poisson regression models. Over a 5- to 9-year follow-up period, only around 30% of undiagnosed individuals became diagnosed [Mexico, 27% (95% confidence interval: 23%, 31%); China, 30% (26%, 33%); Indonesia, 30% (28%, 32%); and South Africa, 36% (31%, 41%)], and one in four untreated individuals became treated [Indonesia, 11% (10%, 12%); Mexico, 24% (20%, 28%); China, 26% (23%, 29%); and South Africa, 33% (29%, 38%)]. The probability of reaching blood pressure (BP) control was lower [Indonesia, 2% (1%, 2%); China, 9% (7%, 11%); Mexico, 12% (9%, 14%); and South Africa, 24% (20%, 28%)] regardless of treatment status. A substantial proportion of individuals discontinued treatment [Indonesia, 70% (67%, 73%); China, 36% (32%, 40%); Mexico, 34% (29%, 39%); and South Africa, 20% (15%, 25%)], and most individuals lost BP control by follow-up [Indonesia, 92% (89%, 96%); Mexico, 77% (71%, 83%); China, 76% (69%, 83%); and South Africa 45% (36%, 54%)]. Our results highlight that policies solely aimed at improving diagnosis or initiating treatment may not lead to long-term hypertension control improvements in MICs.

e-Cigarette Use and Combustible Cigarette Smoking Initiation Among Youth: Accounting for Time-Varying Exposure and Time-Dependent Confounding

BACKGROUND

Youth e-cigarette use is associated with the initiation of combustible cigarette smoking, but prior studies have rarely accounted for time-varying measures of e-cigarette exposure or time-dependent confounding of e-cigarette use and smoking initiation.

METHODS

Using five waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2013-2019), we estimated marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights to examine the association between time-varying e-cigarette initiation and subsequent cigarette smoking initiation among e-cigarette- and cigarette-naïve youth (12-17 years) at baseline. Time-dependent confounders used as predictors in inverse probability weights included tobacco-related attitudes or beliefs, mental health symptoms, substance use, and tobacco-marketing exposure.

RESULTS

Among 9,584 youth at baseline, those who initiated e-cigarettes were 2.4 times as likely to subsequently initiate cigarette smoking as youth who did not initiate e-cigarettes (risk ratio = 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1, 2.7), after accounting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias. Among youth who initiated e-cigarettes, more frequent vaping was associated with greater risk of smoking initiation (risk ratio ≥3 days/month = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4, 2.2; 1-2 days/month = 1.2; 95% CI = 0.93, 1.6 vs. 0 days/month). Weighted marginal structural model estimates were moderately attenuated compared with unweighted estimates adjusted for baseline-only confounders. At the US population level, we estimated over half a million youth initiated cigarette smoking because of prior e-cigarette use over follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between youth vaping and combustible cigarette smoking persisted after accounting for time-dependent confounding. We estimate that e-cigarette use accounts for a considerable share of cigarette initiation among US youth. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B937.

Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021

Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death using death certificate data from California. The estimated number of excess natural-cause deaths from 2020 March 1 to 2021 February 28 (69,182) exceeded the number of Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (53,667) by 29%. Nearly half, 47.4% (32,775), of excess natural-cause deaths occurred out of the hospital, where only 28.6% (9,366) of excess mortality was attributed to Covid-19. Over time, increases or decreases in excess natural non-Covid-19 mortality closely mirrored increases or decreases in Covid-19 mortality. The time series were positively correlated in out-of-hospital settings, particularly at time lags when excess natural-cause deaths preceded reported Covid-19 deaths; for example, when comparing Covid-19 deaths to excess natural-cause deaths in the week prior, the correlation was 0.73. The strong temporal association of reported Covid-19 deaths with excess out-of-hospital deaths from other reported natural-cause causes suggests Covid-19 deaths were undercounted during the first year of the pandemic.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Estimated Excess Mortality From External Causes in the US, March to December 2020

This cross-sectional study examines racial and ethnic disparities in estimated excess deaths from homicide, suicide, transportation, and drug overdoses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Assessment of Patterns in e-Cigarette Use Among Adults in the US, 2017-2020

IMPORTANCE

Updated data on the patterns of e-cigarette use among adults in the US are needed.

OBJECTIVE

To examine recent patterns in current and daily e-cigarette use among US adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This repeated cross-sectional study used data from the 2017, 2018, and 2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a nationally representative state-based survey of noninstitutionalized US adults. A total of 994 307 adults 18 years and older who were living in states and territories that provided data on e-cigarette use in 2017 (53 states and territories), 2018 (36 states and Guam), and 2020 (42 states and Guam) were included.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The weighted prevalence of current (past 30 days) and daily e-cigarette use was estimated for each year, and changes in prevalence from 2017 to 2020 were assessed, first overall and then stratified by participant characteristics, including state or territory of residence.

RESULTS

Among 994 307 adults from states with data on e-cigarette use, 429 370 individuals (weighted 51.3% female) were participants in the 2017 survey, 280 184 (weighted 52.1% female) were participants in the 2018 survey, and 284 753 (weighted 52.1% female) were participants in the 2020 survey. The weighted proportions of young adults aged 18 to 24 years were 12.6% in 2017, 11.8% in 2018, and 11.9% in 2020. Across all 3 years, 17 035 participants (weighted, 1.0%) were American Indian or Alaska Native, 22 313 (weighted, 4.6%) were Asian, 75 780 (weighted, 12.2%) were Black, 72 190 (weighted, 15.1%) were Hispanic, 4817 (weighted, 0.2%) were Native Hawaiian, 757 140 (weighted, 65.1%) were White, 20 332 (weighted, 1.3%) were multiracial, and 6245 (weighted, 0.5%) were of other races and/or ethnicities. The prevalence of current e-cigarette use was 4.4% (95% CI, 4.3%-4.5%) in 2017, which increased to 5.5% (95% CI, 5.4%-5.7%) in 2018 and decreased slightly to 5.1% (95% CI, 4.9%-5.3%) in 2020. The recent decrease, though modest, was observed mainly among young adults aged 18 to 20 years (from 18.9% [95% CI, 17.2%-20.7%] to 15.6% [95% CI, 14.1%-17.1%]; P = .004). However, the prevalence of daily e-cigarette use increased consistently from 1.5% (95% CI, 1.4%-1.6%) in 2017 to 2.1% (95% CI, 2.0%-2.2%) in 2018 and 2.3% (95% CI, 2.2%-2.4%) in 2020. Among young adults aged 21 to 24 years, there was a slight, albeit insignificant, increase in the prevalence of current e-cigarette use (from 13.5% [95% CI, 12.3%-14.7%] to 14.5% [95% CI, 13.2%-15.9%]; P = .28) but a significant increase in the prevalence of daily e-cigarette use (from 4.4% [95% CI, 3.8%-5.1%] to 6.6% [95% CI, 5.6%-7.6%]; P < .001) between 2018 and 2020. State-level patterns in the prevalence of current e-cigarette use were heterogeneous, with states like Massachusetts (from 5.6% [95% CI, 4.8%-6.5%] to 4.1% [95% CI, 3.1%-5.3%]; P = .03) and New York (from 5.4% [95% CI, 4.9%-5.9%] to 4.1% [95% CI, 3.5%-4.7%]; P = .001) recording significant decreases between 2018 and 2020. In contrast, Guam (from 5.9% [95% CI, 4.5%-7.9%] to 11.4% [95% CI, 8.7%-14.8%]; P = .002) and Utah (from 6.1% [95% CI, 5.5%-6.7%] to 7.2% [95% CI, 6.5%-8.0%]; P = .02) recorded significant increases in current e-cigarette use over the same period.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, a slight decrease in the prevalence of current e-cigarette use was found between 2018 and 2020; this decrease was mainly observed among young adults aged 18 to 20 years. In contrast, daily e-cigarette use consistently increased, particularly among young adults aged 21 to 24 years. This increase in daily use suggests greater nicotine dependence among those who use e-cigarettes, warranting continued surveillance.

"Pandemic of the unvaccinated"? At midlife, white people are less vaccinated but still at less risk of Covid-19 mortality in Minnesota

Introduction

Recent research underscores the exceptionally young age distribution of Covid-19 deaths in the United States compared with international peers. This brief characterizes how high levels of Covid mortality at midlife ages (45-64) are deeply intertwined with continuing racial inequity in Covid-19 mortality.

Methods

Mortality data from Minnesota in 2020-2022 were analyzed in June 2022. Death certificate data and published vaccination rates in Minnesota allow vaccination and mortality rates to be observed with greater age and temporal precision than national data.

Results

Black, Hispanic, and Asian adults under age 65 were all more highly vaccinated than white populations of the same ages during most of Minnesota's substantial and sustained Delta surge and all of the subsequent Omicron surge. However, white mortality rates were lower than those of all other groups. These disparities were extreme; at midlife ages (ages 45-64), during the Omicron period, more highly-vaccinated populations had COVID-19 mortality that was 164% (Asian-American), 115% (Hispanic), or 208% (Black) of white Covid-19 mortality at these ages. In Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations as a whole, Covid-19 mortality at ages 55-64 was greater than white mortality at 10 years older.

Conclusions

This discrepancy between vaccination and mortality patterning by race/ethnicity suggests that, if the current period is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated," it also remains a "pandemic of the disadvantaged" in ways that can decouple from vaccination rates. This result implies an urgent need to center health equity in the development of Covid-19 policy measures.

Associations of Smokeless Tobacco Use With Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Insights From the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Cigarette smoking is strongly associated with the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, evidence is limited as to whether smokeless tobacco (ST) use is associated with CVD.

AIMS AND METHODS

Using data from 4347 adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2014), we compared geometric mean concentrations of CVD-related harm biomarkers and biomarkers of exposure among exclusive ST users and exclusive cigarette smokers-in relation to recent nicotine exposure-and never tobacco users, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, body mass index, and CVD. Biomarker levels among exclusive ST users who were former established cigarette smokers were compared with exclusive cigarette smokers.

RESULTS

Compared with cigarette smokers, ST users had significantly higher concentrations of total nicotine equivalents (TNE) but lower concentrations of inflammatory (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intercellular adhesion molecule, fibrinogen) and oxidative stress (8-isoprostane) biomarkers (all p < .05). Biomarker levels among ST users were similar to never smokers. ST users who were former cigarette smokers had lower levels of inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers and biomarkers of exposure (cadmium, lead, 1-hydroxypyrene, acrylonitrile, and acrolein), compared with cigarettes smokers (p < .05), despite having higher TNE levels (p < .05). Among cigarette smokers, but not among ST users, inflammatory biomarkers and TNE were highly correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

ST use is not associated with increases in biomarkers of CVD-related harm and exposure, compared with never smokers, despite exposure to nicotine at levels higher than those observed among cigarette smokers. These findings support the concept that increases in CVD risk among cigarette smokers is caused primarily by constituents of tobacco smoke other than nicotine.

IMPLICATIONS

Despite having higher levels of nicotine and compared with exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive ST users (including those who were former cigarette smokers) had significantly lower concentrations of inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers, comparable to levels observed among never tobacco users. These findings suggest that increases in CVD risk among cigarette smokers is caused primarily by tobacco constituents other than nicotine and that switching to ST is likely associated with lower CVD risk.

Association of Electronic Cigarette Use with Respiratory Symptom Development among U.S. Young Adults

Rationale: Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use is highly prevalent among young adults. However, longitudinal data assessing the association between e-cigarette use and respiratory symptoms are lacking. Objectives: To determine whether e-cigarette use is associated with the development of respiratory symptoms in young adults. Methods: Data are derived from the PATH (Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health) study waves 2 (2014-2015), 3 (2015-2016), 4 (2016-2018), and 5 (2018-2019). Young adults aged 18-24 years at baseline with no prevalent respiratory disease or symptoms were included in the analyses. Binary logistic regression models with a generalized estimating equation were used to estimate time-varying and time-lagged associations of e-cigarette use during waves 2-4, with respiratory symptom development approximately 12 months later at waves 3-5. Measurements and Main Results: The per-wave prevalence of former and current e-cigarette use was 15.2% and 5.6%, respectively. Former e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of developing any respiratory symptom (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.39) and wheezing in the chest (aOR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.08-1.83) in multivariable adjusted models. Current e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds for any respiratory symptom (aOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.06-1.65) and wheezing in the chest (aOR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.06-2.14). Associations persisted among participants who never smoked combustible cigarettes. Conclusions: In this nationally representative cohort of young adults, former and current e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of developing wheezing-related respiratory symptoms, after accounting for cigarette smoking and other combustible tobacco product use.

Excess all-cause mortality across counties in the United States, March 2020 to December 2021

Official Covid-19 death counts have underestimated the mortality impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Excess mortality, which compares observed deaths to deaths expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful measure for assessing the total effect of the pandemic on mortality levels. In the present study, we produce county-level estimates of excess mortality for 3,127 counties between March 2020 and December 2021. We fit two hierarchical linear models to county-level death rates from January 2015 to December 2019 and predict expected deaths for each month during the pandemic. We compare observed deaths to these estimates to obtain excess deaths for each county-month. An estimated 936,911 excess deaths occurred during 2020 and 2021, of which 171,168 (18.3%) were not assigned to Covid-19 on death certificates as an underlying cause of death. Urban counties in the Far West, Great Lakes, Mideast, and New England experienced a substantial mortality disadvantage in 2020, whereas rural counties in these regions had higher mortality in 2021. In the Southeast, Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Plains regions, there was a rural mortality disadvantage in 2020, which was exacerbated in 2021. The proportion of excess deaths assigned to Covid-19 was lower in 2020 (76.3%) than in 2021 (87.0%), suggesting that a larger fraction of excess deaths was assigned to Covid-19 later in the pandemic. However, in rural areas and in the Southeast and Southwest a large share of excess deaths was still not assigned to Covid-19 during 2021.

SIGNIFICANCE

Deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic have been primarily monitored through death certificates containing reference to Covid-19. This approach has missed more than 170,000 deaths related to the pandemic between 2020 and 2021. While the ascertainment of Covid-19 deaths improved during 2021, the full effects of the pandemic still remained obscured in some regions. County-level estimates of excess mortality are useful for studying geographic inequities in the mortality burden associated with the pandemic and identifying specific regions where the full mortality burden was significantly underreported (i.e. Southeast). They can also be used to inform resource allocation decisions at the federal and state levels and encourage uptake of preventive measures in communities with low vaccine uptake.

Association of Online Search Trends With Vaccination in the United States: June 2020 Through May 2021

Stagnating COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy remain a threat to public health. Improved strategies for real-time tracking and estimation of population-level behavior regarding vaccinations are needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether online search trends for COIVD-19 and influenza mirror vaccination rates. State-level weekly fraction of online searches for top vaccination-related search terms and CDC vaccination data were obtained from June 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. Next, trends in online search and vaccination data for COVID-19 and influenza were analyzed for visual and quantitative correlation patterns using Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Online searches in the US for COVID-19 vaccinations increased 2.71-fold (95% CI: 1.98-3.45) in the 4 weeks after the FDA emergency authorization compared to the precedent 4 weeks. In March-April 2021, US online searches reached a plateau that was followed by a decline of 83.3% (95% CI: 31.2%-135.3%) until May 31, 2021. The timing of peaks in online searches varied across US states. Online searches were strongly correlated with vaccination rates (r=0.71, 95% CI: 0.45 - 0.87), preceding actual reported vaccination rates in 44 of 51 states. Online search trends preceded vaccination trends by a median of 3.0 weeks (95% CI: 2.0-4.0 weeks) across all states. For influenza vaccination searches, seasonal peaks in September-October between 2016-2020 were noted. Influenza search trends highly correlated with the timing of actual vaccinations for the 2019-2020 (r=0.82, 95% CI: 0.64 – 0.93) and 2020-2021 season (r=0.91, 95% CI: 0.78 – 0.97). Search trends and real-world vaccination rates are highly correlated. Temporal alignment and correlation levels were higher for influenza vaccinations; however, only online searches for COVID-19 vaccination preceded vaccination trends. These findings indicate that US online search data can potentially guide public health efforts, including policy changes and identifying geographical areas to expand vaccination campaigns.

Evaluation of Age Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity From March 2020 to October 2021 in the US

This cross-sectional study examines age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates in the US from March 2020 to October 2021 by sex and race and ethnicity.

County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored using death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we estimated a generalized linear model of expected mortality based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We used the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in 2020 for 1470 county sets in the U.S. representing 3138 counties. Across the country, we estimated that 438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.6%), Southwest (82.6%), Far West (83.7%), and Rocky Mountains (86.7%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in most counties. The exception to this pattern occurred in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in metro and nonmetro areas. Many county sets had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive behavior feedback loops, such as increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake.