Effects of statin therapy on diagnoses of new-onset diabetes and worsening glycaemia in large-scale randomised blinded statin trials: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous meta-analyses of summary data from randomised controlled trials have shown that statin therapy increases the risk of diabetes, but less is known about the size or timing of this effect, or who is at greatest risk. We aimed to address these gaps in knowledge through analysis of individual participant data from large, long-term, randomised, double-blind trials of statin therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of statin therapy that participated in the CTT Collaboration. All double-blind randomised controlled trials of statin therapy of at least 2 years' scheduled duration and with at least 1000 participants were eligible for inclusion in this meta-analysis. All recorded diabetes-related adverse events, treatments, and measures of glycaemia were sought from eligible trials. Meta-analyses assessed the effects of allocation to statin therapy on new-onset diabetes (defined by diabetes-related adverse events, use of new glucose-lowering medications, glucose concentrations, or HbA1c values) and on worsening glycaemia in people with diabetes (defined by complications of glucose control, increased use of glucose-lowering medication, or HbA1c increase of ≥0·5%). Standard inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses of the effects on these outcomes were conducted according to a prespecified protocol.

FINDINGS

Of the trials participating in the CTT Collaboration, 19 trials compared statin versus placebo (123 940 participants, 25 701 [21%] with diabetes; median follow-up of 4·3 years), and four trials compared more versus less intensive statin therapy (30 724 participants, 5340 [17%] with diabetes, median follow-up of 4·9 years). Compared with placebo, allocation to low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 10% proportional increase in new-onset diabetes (2420 of 39 179 participants assigned to receive a statin [1·3% per year] vs 2214 of 39 266 participants assigned to receive placebo [1·2% per year]; rate ratio [RR] 1·10, 95% CI 1·04-1·16), and allocation to high-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 36% proportional increase (1221 of 9935 participants assigned to receive a statin [4·8% per year] vs 905 of 9859 participants assigned to receive placebo [3·5% per year]; 1·36, 1·25-1·48). For each trial, the rate of new-onset diabetes among participants allocated to receive placebo depended mostly on the proportion of participants who had at least one follow-up HbA1c measurement; this proportion was much higher in the high-intensity than the low-intensity or moderate-intensity trials. Consequently, the main determinant of the magnitude of the absolute excesses in the two types of trial was the extent of HbA1c measurement rather than the proportional increase in risk associated with statin therapy. In participants without baseline diabetes, mean glucose increased by 0·04 mmol/L with both low-intensity or moderate-intensity (95% CI 0·03-0·05) and high-intensity statins (0·02-0·06), and mean HbA1c increased by 0·06% (0·00-0·12) with low-intensity or moderate-intensity statins and 0·08% (0·07-0·09) with high-intensity statins. Among those with a baseline measure of glycaemia, approximately 62% of new-onset diabetes cases were among participants who were already in the top quarter of the baseline distribution. The relative effects of statin therapy on new-onset diabetes were similar among different types of participants and over time. Among participants with baseline diabetes, the RRs for worsening glycaemia were 1·10 (1·06-1·14) for low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy and 1·24 (1·06-1·44) for high-intensity statin therapy compared with placebo.

INTERPRETATION

Statins cause a moderate dose-dependent increase in new diagnoses of diabetes that is consistent with a small upwards shift in glycaemia, with the majority of new diagnoses of diabetes occurring in people with baseline glycaemic markers that are close to the diagnostic threshold for diabetes. Importantly, however, any theoretical adverse effects of statins on cardiovascular risk that might arise from these small increases in glycaemia (or, indeed, from any other mechanism) are already accounted for in the overall reduction in cardiovascular risk that is seen with statin therapy in these trials. These findings should further inform clinical guidelines regarding clinical management of people taking statin therapy.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Thromboxane biosynthesis and future events in diabetes: the ASCEND trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Thromboxane (TX) A2, released by activated platelets, plays an important role in atherothrombosis. Urinary 11-dehydro-TXB2 (U-TXM), a stable metabolite reflecting the whole-body TXA2 biosynthesis, is reduced by ∼70% by daily low-dose aspirin. The U-TXM represents a non-invasive biomarker of in vivo platelet activation and is enhanced in patients with diabetes. This study assessed whether U-TXM is associated with the risk of future serious vascular events or revascularizations (SVE-R), major bleeding, or cancer in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

The U-TXM was measured pre-randomization to aspirin or placebo in 5948 people with type 1 or 2 diabetes and no cardiovascular disease, in the ASCEND trial. Associations between log U-TXM and SVE-R (n = 618), major bleed (n = 206), and cancer (n = 700) during 6.6 years of follow-up were investigated by Cox regression; comparisons of these associations with the effects of randomization to aspirin were made.

RESULTS

Higher U-TXM was associated with older age, female sex, current smoking, type 2 diabetes, higher body size, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of ≥3 mg/mmol, and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate. After adjustment for these, U-TXM was marginally statistically significantly associated with SVE-R and major bleed but not cancer [hazard ratios per 1 SD higher log U-TXM (95% confidence interval): 1.09 (1.00-1.18), 1.16 (1.01-1.34), and 1.06 (0.98-1.14)]. The hazard ratio was similar to that implied by the clinical effects of randomization to aspirin for SVE-R but not for major bleed.

CONCLUSIONS

The U-TXM was log-linearly independently associated with SVE-R in diabetes. This is consistent with the involvement of platelet TXA2 in diabetic atherothrombosis.

A blunted nocturnal blood pressure decline is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality

OBJECTIVE

It has been suggested that a blunted nocturnal blood pressure (BP) decline is associated with a poor prognosis. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if an abnormal dipping is deleterious per se or it merely reflects an elevated BP during sleep. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of nocturnal BP decline, with or without concomitant elevated nocturnal BP.

METHODS

Vital status and cause of death were obtained from death certificates in 59 124 patients, enrolled in the Spanish ABPM Registry between 2004 and 2014 (median follow-up: 10 years). The association between night-to-day ratio (NDR) and dipping patterns (extreme dippers, dippers, reduced dippers, and risers) with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were evaluated by Cox-proportional models adjusted for clinical confounders and 24 h blood pressure.

RESULTS

NDR was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio for 1SD change: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.17]. Reduced dippers (1.13; 1.06-1.20) and risers (1.41; 1.32-1.51) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause death, whereas extreme dippers (0.90; 0.79-1.02) were not. Elevated NDR (≥0.9) in the absence of elevated night SBP (<120 mmHg) was associated with an increased risk of death (1.13; 1.04-1.22), as well as elevated night SBP but normal NDR (1.38; 1.26-1.50), and the combination of both abnormalities (1.56; 1.46-1.66). Similar results were obtained for cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSION

Abnormalities in the circadian pattern are associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. This is maintained even in the absence of nocturnal BP elevation.

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist.

AIM

To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys.

METHOD

A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles.

RESULTS

Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Effects of Empagliflozin on Fluid Overload, Weight, and Blood Pressure in CKD

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

SGLT2 inhibitors reduce risk of kidney progression, AKI, and cardiovascular disease, but the mechanisms of benefit are incompletely understood. Bioimpedance spectroscopy can estimate body water and fat mass. One quarter of the EMPA-KIDNEY bioimpedance substudy CKD population had clinically significant levels of bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" at recruitment. Empagliflozin induced a prompt and sustained reduction in "Fluid Overload," irrespective of sex, diabetes, and baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or eGFR. No significant effect on bioimpedance-derived fat mass was observed. The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on body water may be one of the contributing mechanisms by which they mediate effects on cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND

CKD is associated with fluid excess that can be estimated by bioimpedance spectroscopy. We aimed to assess effects of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition on bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" and adiposity in a CKD population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY was a double-blind placebo-controlled trial of empagliflozin 10 mg once daily in patients with CKD at risk of progression. In a substudy, bioimpedance measurements were added to the main trial procedures at randomization and at 2- and 18-month follow-up visits. The substudy's primary outcome was the study-average difference in absolute "Fluid Overload" (an estimate of excess extracellular water) analyzed using a mixed model repeated measures approach.

RESULTS

The 660 substudy participants were broadly representative of the 6609-participant trial population. Substudy mean baseline absolute "Fluid Overload" was 0.4±1.7 L. Compared with placebo, the overall mean absolute "Fluid Overload" difference among those allocated empagliflozin was -0.24 L (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.38 to -0.11), with similar sized differences at 2 and 18 months, and in prespecified subgroups. Total body water differences comprised between-group differences in extracellular water of -0.49 L (95% CI, -0.69 to -0.30, including the -0.24 L "Fluid Overload" difference) and a -0.30 L (95% CI, -0.57 to -0.03) difference in intracellular water. There was no significant effect of empagliflozin on bioimpedance-derived adipose tissue mass (-0.28 kg [95% CI, -1.41 to 0.85]). The between-group difference in weight was -0.7 kg (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

In a broad range of patients with CKD, empagliflozin resulted in a sustained reduction in a bioimpedance-derived estimate of fluid overload, with no statistically significant effect on fat mass.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03594110 ; EuDRACT: 2017-002971-24 ( https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/ ).

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Revascularization of low-surgical risk patients with disease of the left main coronary artery: a fresh look at the evidence

This editorial refers to ‘2022 joint ESC/EACTS review of the 2018 guideline recommendations on the revascularization of left main coronary artery disease in patients at low surgical risk and anatomy suitable for PCI or CABG’, by R.A.

Impact of outcome adjudication in kidney disease trials: observations from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP)

Introduction

We aimed to assess opportunities for trial streamlining and the scientific impact of adjudication on kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in CKD.

Methods

We analysed the effects of adjudication of ~2100 maintenance kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and ~1300 major atherosclerotic events (MAEs) recorded in SHARP. We first compared outcome classification before versus after adjudication, and then re-ran randomised comparisons using pre-adjudicated follow-up data.

Results

For maintenance KRT, adjudication had little impact with only 1% of events being refuted (28/2115). Consequently, randomised comparisons using pre-adjudication reports found almost identical results (pre-adjudication: simvastatin/ezetimibe 1038 vs placebo 1077; risk ratio [RR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.88-1.04; post-adjudicated: 1057 vs 1084; RR=0.97, 95%CI 0.89-1.05). For MAEs, about one-quarter of patient reports were refuted (324/1275 [25%]), and reviewing 3538 other potential vascular events and death reports identified only 194 additional MAEs. Nevertheless, randomised analyses using SHARP's pre-adjudicated data alone found similar results to analyses based on adjudicated outcomes (pre-adjudication: 573 vs 702; RR=0.80, 95%CI 0.72-0.89; adjudicated: 526 vs 619; RR=0.83, 95%CI 0.74- 0.94), and also suggested refuted MAEs were likely to represent atherosclerotic disease (RR for refuted MAEs=0.80, 95%CI 0.65-1.00).

Conclusions

These analyses provide three key insights. First, they provide a rationale for nephrology trials not to adjudicate maintenance KRT. Secondly, when an event that mimics an atherosclerotic outcome is not expected to be influenced by the treatment under study (e.g. heart failure), the aim of adjudicating atherosclerotic outcomes should be to remove such events. Lastly, restrictive definitions for the remaining suspected atherosclerotic outcomes may reduce statistical power.

Relationship between clinic and ambulatory blood pressure and mortality: an observational cohort study in 59 124 patients

BACKGROUND

Ambulatory blood pressure provides a more comprehensive assessment than clinic blood pressure, and has been reported to better predict health outcomes than clinic or home pressure. We aimed to examine associations of clinic and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of primary care patients referred for assessment of hypertension.

METHODS

We did an observational cohort study using clinic and ambulatory blood pressure data obtained from March 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2014, from the Spanish Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry. This registry included patients from 223 primary care centres from the Spanish National Health System in all 17 regions of Spain. Mortality data (date and cause) were ascertained by a computerised search of the vital registry of the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. Complete data were available for age, sex, all blood pressure measures, and BMI. For each study participant, follow-up was from the date of their recruitment to the date of death or Dec 31, 2019, whichever occurred first. Cox models were used to estimate associations between usual clinic or ambulatory blood pressure and mortality, adjusted for confounders and additionally for alternative measures of blood pressure. For each measure of blood pressure, we created five groups (ie, fifths) defined by quintiles of that measure among those who subsequently died.

FINDINGS

During a median follow-up of 9·7 years, 7174 (12·1%) of 59 124 patients died, including 2361 (4·0%) from cardiovascular causes. J-shaped associations were observed for several blood pressure measures. Among the top four baseline-defined fifths, 24-h systolic blood pressure was more strongly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1·41 per 1 - SD increment [95% CI 1·36-1·47]) than clinic systolic blood pressure (1·18 [1·13-1·23]). After adjustment for clinic blood pressure, 24-h blood pressure remained strongly associated with all-cause deaths (HR 1·43 [95% CI 1·37-1·49]), but the association between clinic blood pressure and all-cause death was attenuated when adjusted for 24-h blood pressure (1·04 [1·00-1·09]). Compared with the informativeness of clinic systolic blood pressure (100%), night-time systolic blood pressure was most informative about risk of all-cause death (591%) and cardiovascular death (604%). Relative to blood pressure within the normal range, elevated all-cause mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·12-1·37]) and sustained hypertension (1·24 [1·15-1·32]), but not white-coat hypertension, and elevated cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (1·37 [1·15-1·63]) and sustained hypertension (1·38 [1·22-1·55]), but not white-coat hypertension.

INTERPRETATION

Ambulatory blood pressure, particularly night-time blood pressure, was more informative about the risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death than clinic blood pressure.

FUNDING

Spanish Society of Hypertension, Lacer Laboratories, UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centres (Oxford and University College London Hospitals), and British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence.

Prediction Models for Individual-Level Healthcare Costs Associated with Cardiovascular Events in the UK

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for the individual-level impacts of cardiovascular events on UK healthcare costs.

METHODS

In the UK Biobank, people 40-70 years old, recruited in 2006-2010, were followed in linked primary (N = 192,983 individuals) and hospital care (N = 501,807 individuals) datasets. Regression models of annual primary and annual hospital care costs (2020 UK£) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported.

RESULTS

For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were £360 and £514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were £190 and £360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from £4340 and £5590, respectively, in the year of these events, to £190 and £410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models.

Empagliflozin in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

The effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease who are at risk for disease progression are not well understood. The EMPA-KIDNEY trial was designed to assess the effects of treatment with empagliflozin in a broad range of such patients.

METHODS

We enrolled patients with chronic kidney disease who had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of at least 20 but less than 45 ml per minute per 1.73 m² of body-surface area, or who had an eGFR of at least 45 but less than 90 ml per minute per 1.73 m² with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (with albumin measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams) of at least 200. Patients were randomly assigned to receive empagliflozin (10 mg once daily) or matching placebo. The primary outcome was a composite of progression of kidney disease (defined as end-stage kidney disease, a sustained decrease in eGFR to <10 ml per minute per 1.73 m², a sustained decrease in eGFR of ≥40% from baseline, or death from renal causes) or death from cardiovascular causes.

RESULTS

A total of 6609 patients underwent randomization. During a median of 2.0 years of follow-up, progression of kidney disease or death from cardiovascular causes occurred in 432 of 3304 patients (13.1%) in the empagliflozin group and in 558 of 3305 patients (16.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.82; P<0.001). Results were consistent among patients with or without diabetes and across subgroups defined according to eGFR ranges. The rate of hospitalization from any cause was lower in the empagliflozin group than in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.95; P = 0.003), but there were no significant between-group differences with respect to the composite outcome of hospitalization for heart failure or death from cardiovascular causes (which occurred in 4.0% in the empagliflozin group and 4.6% in the placebo group) or death from any cause (in 4.5% and 5.1%, respectively). The rates of serious adverse events were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a wide range of patients with chronic kidney disease who were at risk for disease progression, empagliflozin therapy led to a lower risk of progression of kidney disease or death from cardiovascular causes than placebo. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and others; EMPA-KIDNEY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03594110; EudraCT number, 2017-002971-24.).

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND

Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) is associated with a range of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases in conventional epidemiological studies, but substantial residual confounding may exist. Mendelian randomization approaches can help control for such confounding.

METHODS

SCALLOP Consortium data of 19,195 participants were used to generate an FGF-23 genetic score. Data from 337,448 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate associations between higher genetically predicted FGF-23 concentration and the odds of any atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (n=26,266 events), nonatherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (n=12,652), and noncardiovascular diseases previously linked to FGF-23. Measurements of carotid intima-media thickness and left ventricular mass were available in a subset. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were also tested in three large case-control consortia: CARDIOGRAMplusC4D (coronary artery disease, n=181,249 cases), MEGASTROKE (stroke, n=34,217), and HERMES (heart failure, n=47,309).

RESULTS

We identified 34 independent variants for circulating FGF-23, which formed a validated genetic score. There were no associations between genetically predicted FGF-23 and any of the cardiovascular or noncardiovascular outcomes. In UK Biobank, the odds ratio (OR) for any atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease per 1-SD higher genetically predicted logFGF-23 was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.98 to 1.08), and for any nonatherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, it was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.09). The ORs in the case-control consortia were 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.03) for coronary artery disease, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.07) for stroke, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.95 to 1.05) for heart failure. In those with imaging, logFGF-23 was not associated with carotid or cardiac abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically predicted FGF-23 levels are not associated with atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, suggesting no important causal link.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2023_01_10_CJN05080422.mp3.

Focused Cardiac Ultrasound to Guide the Diagnosis of Heart Failure in Pregnant Women in India

BACKGROUND

Cardiac complications are a leading cause of maternal death. Cardiac imaging with echocardiography is important for prompt diagnosis, but it is not available in many low-resource settings. The aim of this study was to determine whether focused cardiac ultrasound performed by trained obstetricians and interpreted remotely by experts can identify cardiac abnormalities in pregnant women in low-resource settings.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 301 pregnant and postpartum women recruited from 10 hospitals across three states in India. Twenty-two obstetricians were trained in image acquisition using a portable cardiac ultrasound device following a simplified protocol adapted from focus-assessed transthoracic echocardiography protocol. It included parasternal long-axis, parasternal short-axis, and apical four-chamber views on two-dimensional and color Doppler. Independent image interpretation was performed remotely by two experts, in the United Kingdom and India, using a standard semiquantitative assessment protocol. Interrater agreement between the experts was examined using Cohen's κ. Diagnostic accuracy of the method was examined in a subsample for whom both focused and conventional scans were available.

RESULTS

Cardiac abnormalities identified using the focused method included valvular abnormalities (27%), rheumatic heart disease (6.6%), derangements in left ventricular size (4.7%) and function (22%), atrial dilatation (19.5%), and pericardial effusion (30%). There was substantial agreement on the cardiac parameters between the two experts, ranging from 93.6% (κ = 0.84) for left ventricular ejection fraction to 100% (κ = 1) for valvular disease. Image quality was graded as good in 79% of parasternal long-axis, 77% of parasternal short-axis and 64% of apical four-chamber views. The chance-corrected κ coefficients indicated fair to moderate agreement (κ = 0.28-0.51) for the image quality parameters. There was good agreement on diagnosis between the focused method and standard echocardiography (78% agreement), compared in 36 participants.

CONCLUSIONS

The focused method accurately identified cardiac abnormalities in pregnant women and could be used for screening cardiac problems in obstetric settings.

Determining the Relationship Between Blood Pressure, Kidney Function, and Chronic Kidney Disease: Insights From Genetic Epidemiology

BACKGROUND

It is well established that decreased kidney function can increase blood pressure (BP), but it is unproven whether moderately elevated BP causes chronic kidney disease (CKD) or glomerular hyperfiltration.

METHODS

311 119 White British UK Biobank participants were included in logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds of CKD (defined as long-term kidney replacement therapy, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]< 60mL/min/1.73m², or urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥3 mg/mmol) associated with higher genetically predicted BP using genetic risk scores comprising 219 systolic and 223 diastolic BP loci. Analyses estimating associations with clinical categories of eGFR and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio were also conducted, with an eGFR ≥120 mL (min·1.73m²) considered evidence of glomerular hyperfiltration.

RESULTS

21 623 participants had CKD: 7781 with reduced eGFR and 15 500 with albuminuria. 1828 participants had an eGFR ≥120 mL/min/1.73m². Each genetically predicted 10 mmHg higher systolic BP and 5 mmHg higher diastolic BP were associated with a 37% (95% CI, 1.29-1.45) and 19% (1.14-1.25) higher odds of CKD, respectively. Associations were evident for both the reduced eGFR and albuminuria components of the CKD outcome. The odds of hyperfiltration (versus an eGFR ≥60 and <90 mL/min/1.73m² were 49% higher (95% CI, 1.21-1.84) for each genetically predicted 10 mmHg higher systolic BP. Associations with CKD and hyperfiltration were similar irrespective of preexisting diabetes, vascular disease, or different levels of adiposity.

CONCLUSIONS

In this general population, genetic epidemiological evidence supports a causal role of life-long differences in BP for decreased kidney function, glomerular hyperfiltration, and albuminuria. Physiological autoregulation may not afford complete renal protection against the moderate BP elevations.

Impact of diabetes on the effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on kidney outcomes: collaborative meta-analysis of large placebo-controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Large trials have shown that sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure or chronic kidney disease, or with type 2 diabetes and high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. None of the trials recruiting patients with and without diabetes were designed to assess outcomes separately in patients without diabetes.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitor trials. We searched the MEDLINE and Embase databases for trials published from database inception to Sept 5, 2022. SGLT2 inhibitor trials that were double-blind, placebo-controlled, performed in adults (age ≥18 years), large (≥500 participants per group), and at least 6 months in duration were included. Summary-level data used for analysis were extracted from published reports or provided by trial investigators, and inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses were conducted to estimate treatment effects. The main efficacy outcomes were kidney disease progression (standardised to a definition of a sustained ≥50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] from randomisation, a sustained low eGFR, end-stage kidney disease, or death from kidney failure), acute kidney injury, and a composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure. Other outcomes were death from cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular disease considered separately, and the main safety outcomes were ketoacidosis and lower limb amputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022351618.

FINDINGS

We identified 13 trials involving 90 413 participants. After exclusion of four participants with uncertain diabetes status, we analysed 90 409 participants (74 804 [82·7%] participants with diabetes [>99% with type 2 diabetes] and 15 605 [17·3%] without diabetes; trial-level mean baseline eGFR range 37-85 mL/min per 1·73 m2). Compared with placebo, allocation to an SGLT2 inhibitor reduced the risk of kidney disease progression by 37% (relative risk [RR] 0·63, 95% CI 0·58-0·69) with similar RRs in patients with and without diabetes. In the four chronic kidney disease trials, RRs were similar irrespective of primary kidney diagnosis. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of acute kidney injury by 23% (0·77, 0·70-0·84) and the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure by 23% (0·77, 0·74-0·81), again with similar effects in those with and without diabetes. SGLT2 inhibitors also reduced the risk of cardiovascular death (0·86, 0·81-0·92) but did not significantly reduce the risk of non-cardiovascular death (0·94, 0·88-1·02). For these mortality outcomes, RRs were similar in patients with and without diabetes. For all outcomes, results were broadly similar irrespective of trial mean baseline eGFR. Based on estimates of absolute effects, the absolute benefits of SGLT2 inhibition outweighed any serious hazards of ketoacidosis or amputation.

INTERPRETATION

In addition to the established cardiovascular benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors, the randomised data support their use for modifying risk of kidney disease progression and acute kidney injury, not only in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, but also in patients with chronic kidney disease or heart failure irrespective of diabetes status, primary kidney disease, or kidney function.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council and Kidney Research UK.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND

End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

METHODS

Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.

RESULTS

There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.

CONCLUSIONS

In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

CODE-EHR best practice framework for the use of structured electronic healthcare records in clinical research

Big data is central to new developments in global clinical science aiming to improve the lives of patients. Technological advances have led to the routine use of structured electronic healthcare records with the potential to address key gaps in clinical evidence. The covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the potential of big data and related analytics, but also important pitfalls. Verification, validation, and data privacy, as well as the social mandate to undertake research are key challenges. The European Society of Cardiology and the BigData@Heart consortium have brought together a range of international stakeholders, including patient representatives, clinicians, scientists, regulators, journal editors and industry. We propose the CODE-EHR Minimum Standards Framework as a means to improve the design of studies, enhance transparency and develop a roadmap towards more robust and effective utilisation of healthcare data for research purposes.

Impact of cardiovascular events on primary and hospital care costs: findings from UK Biobank study

Background

Need for primary and secondary healthcare increases following cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but there is no data on comparative increases in costs.

Purpose

To estimate annual primary care and hospital inpatient costs associated with key CVD and other adverse events using the UK Biobank (UKB) individual participant data.

Methods

UKB participants with linked primary care data (192,983 participants) or hospital inpatient episodes data (all 501,807 participants) contributed data to this study. The three categories of primary care services (patient consultations, diagnostic and monitoring tests, prescription medications), and hospital episodes were costed (2020 UK£) using the NHS England reference costs. Annual primary care costs and, separately, annual hospital inpatient costs were modelled as functions of participant characteristics at entry (socio-demographic, clinical, prior diseases) and time-updated first occurrences of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, incident cancer, incident diabetes, vascular death and non-vascular death during follow-up (p-value &lt;0.01 in stepwise covariate selection). One-part generalized linear regression model (GLM) with Poisson distribution and identity link function was used for primary care costs, and two-part model was used for inpatient costs (part 1: logistic regression models probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with Poisson distribution and identity link function models costs conditional on incurring any). Separate models were fitted among participants with and without previous CVD at entry into UKB.

Results

Most adverse events were associated with excess primary care and hospital inpatient costs. Compared to people without previous CVD, people with previous CVD had on average larger excess primary care and hospital inpatient costs in years with myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death; but similar excess costs in years with other events. Among both people without and with previous CVD, the excess annual primary care costs were less than 7% of the excess annual hospital inpatient costs for vascular events (Table). However, following diabetes diagnosis the excess annual primary care costs were higher than the excess annual hospital inpatient costs (Table).

Conclusions

These excess primary and hospital care costs associated with CVD events could inform assessments of interventions and policies to reduce CVD risks in UK.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation

Cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in categories of patients in the UK

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has declined steadily over the last few decades across Europe and North America.

Purpose

To provide contemporary estimates of long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in different categories of patients in UK.

Methods

The CTT-UKB micro-simulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (CTT: 118,000 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants; 9 years follow-up). The model integrates parametric risk equations for incident myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death, and projects annually these endpoints and survival using patient characteristics at entry. UKB data and linked primary and hospital care data informed healthcare costs in the model (2020 UK£); 2021 UK NHS Drug Tariff informed statin costs (atorvastatin 40mg at £1.22 and 80mg at £1.68 per 28 tablets); and Health Survey for England data informed health-related quality of life in the model. Previous CTT meta-analysis, atorvastatin dose-response randomized trials, and further meta-analyses of statin trials and cohort studies informed effects of 40mg/80mg atorvastatin therapy daily on rates of incident myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, vascular death, diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis.

The model was used to project gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and additional cost per QALY with lifetime use of atorvastatin 40mg or 80mg daily in categories of UKB participants by sex, age at statin initiation (40–49; 50–59 and 60–70 years), and 10-year CVD risk (QRISK3 risk (%): &lt;5; 5–10, 10–15, 15–20, ≥20). Further scenarios explored effects of 5-year delay of statin initiation in people under 45 years of age or stopping statin therapy at 80 years of age.

Results

Across men and women in categories by age and CVD risk, lifetime use of atorvastatin 40mg daily was associated with increases in survival by 0.44–1.69 years (0.28–1.02 QALYs), and atorvastatin 80mg daily with increases in survival of 0.45–1.87 years (0.32–1.13 QALYs; Figure 1) with gains larger among participants at higher CVD risk. Both atorvastatin 40mg and 80mg doses were in the range of cost-effective treatments with incremental cost per QALY gained with atorvastatin 40mg daily versus no statin therapy below £7200/QALY and with atorvastatin 80mg vs 40mg daily below £16000/QALY (Figure 2) across all patient categories studied. Compared to lifetime statin therapy, stopping therapy at 80 years of age substantially reduced benefits and was not cost-effective in any patient category studied. Similarly, compared to immediate initiation, 5-year delay of statin therapy in 40–45 years old patients was not a cost-effective.

Conclusions

In the UK, statin therapy remains highly cost-effective across men and women 40–70 years old, including those at 10-year CVD risk &lt;5%.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation

Benefit accrual with cardiovascular disease prevention and effects of discontinuation: a modelling study

Background

Statin therapy reduces rates of heart attacks and strokes and improves survival in people at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, there is some uncertainty when to start and how long to persist with statin therapy so as to optimise benefits.

Purpose

To project the accrual of benefit with statin therapy in population groups by age at therapy initiation using a newly developed micro-simulation model.

Methods

Participants without previous CVD (N=44,412) and with previous CVD (N=13,061) at entry were randomly selected from the UK Biobank cohort, ensuring sufficient representation in respective categories by age, LDL cholesterol, diabetes and 10-year CVD risk categories (QRISK3 score, for those without previous CVD only). The CTT-UKB model, a CVD micro-simulation model [1], was used to predict subsequent survival and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the participants using their characteristics at entry. Treatment with atorvastatin 40mg daily was used as an example to illustrate the effect of the therapy compared to no such therapy. Scenarios include: (1) lifelong preventive therapy, (2) preventive therapy stopped at 80 years of age, and (3) delayed initiation of preventive therapy by 5 years in participants under 45 years of age.

Results

Statin treatment benefits, measured in QALYs gained, accrue over lifetime. The majority of benefits accrue later in life. Men accumulate larger benefits and earlier than women (Figure 1A). The pattern of benefits accrual is similar for participants with and without previous CVD (data not shown). The higher the participants' CVD risk, the larger and earlier the benefits, with younger participants accruing larger benefits (Figure 1B). Compared with lifelong prevention, stopping treatment at 80 years of age leads to large reductions in overall benefits, especially in women and those at lower CVD risk. For example, compared to lifelong therapy, people without previous CVD who initiate therapy in their 50s, would lose 47% of QALYs benefit (if men), 66% (if women), 73% (if with CVD risk &lt;5%), and 35% (if with CVD risk ≥20%), respectively, if they stop treatment when they reach 80 years of age. Five-year delay of statin therapy initiation in people under 45 years of age reduces their benefits by about 4% on average, though the loss is somewhat larger in people at higher CVD risk (Figure 2).

Conclusion

Benefits from lifelong cardiovascular prevention accrue over peoples' lifespan with large share of benefits accruing at older age. Stopping treatment earlier substantially reduces benefits.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK NationalInstitute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), and British Heart Foundation

CODE-EHR best-practice framework for the use of structured electronic health-care records in clinical research

Big data is important to new developments in global clinical science that aim to improve the lives of patients. Technological advances have led to the regular use of structured electronic health-care records with the potential to address key deficits in clinical evidence that could improve patient care. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown this potential in big data and related analytics but has also revealed important limitations. Data verification, data validation, data privacy, and a mandate from the public to conduct research are important challenges to effective use of routine health-care data. The European Society of Cardiology and the BigData@Heart consortium have brought together a range of international stakeholders, including representation from patients, clinicians, scientists, regulators, journal editors, and industry members. In this Review, we propose the CODE-EHR minimum standards framework to be used by researchers and clinicians to improve the design of studies and enhance transparency of study methods. The CODE-EHR framework aims to develop robust and effective utilisation of health-care data for research purposes.

Systematic approach to outcome assessment from coded electronic healthcare records in the DaRe2THINK NHS-embedded randomized trial. Eur Heart J Digit Health 2022;3:426-436. [PMID: 36712153 PMCID: PMC9708037 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac046]

Aims

Improving the efficiency of clinical trials is key to their continued importance in directing evidence-based patient care. Digital innovations, in particular the use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), allow for large-scale screening and follow up of participants. However, it is critical these developments are accompanied by robust and transparent methods that can support high-quality and high clinical value research.

Methods and results

The DaRe2THINK trial includes a series of novel processes, including nationwide pseudonymized pre screening of the primary-care EHR across England, digital enrolment, remote e-consent, and 'no-visit' follow up by linking all primary- and secondary-care health data with patient-reported outcomes. DaRe2THINK is a pragmatic, healthcare-embedded randomized trial testing whether earlier use of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with prior or current atrial fibrillation can prevent thromboembolic events and cognitive decline (www.birmingham.ac.uk/dare2think). This study outlines the systematic approach and methodology employed to define patient information and outcome events. This includes transparency on all medical code lists and phenotypes used in the trial across a variety of national data sources, including Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (primary care), Hospital Episode Statistics (secondary care), and the Office for National Statistics (mortality).

Conclusion

Co-designed by a patient and public involvement team, DaRe2THINK presents an opportunity to transform the approach to randomized trials in the setting of routine healthcare, providing high-quality evidence generation in populations representative of the community at risk.

Angiotensin receptor blockers and β blockers in Marfan syndrome: an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and β blockers are widely used in the treatment of Marfan syndrome to try to reduce the rate of progressive aortic root enlargement characteristic of this condition, but their separate and joint effects are uncertain. We aimed to determine these effects in a collaborative individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials of these treatments.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, we identified relevant trials of patients with Marfan syndrome by systematically searching MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL from database inception to Nov 2, 2021. Trials were eligible if they involved a randomised comparison of an ARB versus control or an ARB versus β blocker. We used individual patient data from patients with no prior aortic surgery to estimate the effects of: ARB versus control (placebo or open control); ARB versus β blocker; and indirectly, β blocker versus control. The primary endpoint was the annual rate of change of body surface area-adjusted aortic root dimension Z score, measured at the sinuses of Valsalva.

FINDINGS

We identified ten potentially eligible trials including 1836 patients from our search, from which seven trials and 1442 patients were eligible for inclusion in our main analyses. Four trials involving 676 eligible participants compared ARB with control. During a median follow-up of 3 years, allocation to ARB approximately halved the annual rate of change in the aortic root Z score (mean annual increase 0·07 [SE 0·02] ARB vs 0·13 [SE 0·02] control; absolute difference -0·07 [95% CI -0·12 to -0·01]; p=0·012). Prespecified secondary subgroup analyses showed that the effects of ARB were particularly large in those with pathogenic variants in fibrillin-1, compared with those without such variants (heterogeneity p=0·0050), and there was no evidence to suggest that the effect of ARB varied with β-blocker use (heterogeneity p=0·54). Three trials involving 766 eligible participants compared ARBs with β blockers. During a median follow-up of 3 years, the annual change in the aortic root Z score was similar in the two groups (annual increase -0·08 [SE 0·03] in ARB groups vs -0·11 [SE 0·02] in β-blocker groups; absolute difference 0·03 [95% CI -0·05 to 0·10]; p=0·48). Thus, indirectly, the difference in the annual change in the aortic root Z score between β blockers and control was -0·09 (95% CI -0·18 to 0·00; p=0·042).

INTERPRETATION

In people with Marfan syndrome and no previous aortic surgery, ARBs reduced the rate of increase of the aortic root Z score by about one half, including among those taking a β blocker. The effects of β blockers were similar to those of ARBs. Assuming additivity, combination therapy with both ARBs and β blockers from the time of diagnosis would provide even greater reductions in the rate of aortic enlargement than either treatment alone, which, if maintained over a number of years, would be expected to lead to a delay in the need for aortic surgery.

FUNDING

Marfan Foundation, the Oxford British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence, and the UK Medical Research Council.

ESC guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 2-care pathways, treatment, and follow-up

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular (CV) disease in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, which was reported previously, focused on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of CV conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. This second part addresses the topics of: care pathways and triage systems and management and treatment pathways, both of the most commonly encountered CV conditions and of COVID-19; and information that may be considered useful to help patients with CV disease (CVD) to avoid exposure to COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

European Society of Cardiology guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 1-epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two-part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, reported here, focuses on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of cardiovascular (CV) conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. The second part, which will follow in a later edition of the journal, addresses the topics of care pathways, treatment, and follow-up of CV conditions in patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

Long-term safety and efficacy of anacetrapib in patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease

AIMS

REVEAL was the first randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor therapy to intensive statin therapy reduced the risk of major coronary events. We now report results from extended follow-up beyond the scheduled study treatment period.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 30 449 adults with prior atherosclerotic vascular disease were randomly allocated to anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo, in addition to open-label atorvastatin therapy. After stopping the randomly allocated treatment, 26 129 survivors entered a post-trial follow-up period, blind to their original treatment allocation. The primary outcome was first post-randomization major coronary event (i.e. coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) during the in-trial and post-trial treatment periods, with analysis by intention-to-treat. Allocation to anacetrapib conferred a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3-15%; P = 0.004] proportional reduction in the incidence of major coronary events during the study treatment period (median 4.1 years). During extended follow-up (median 2.2 years), there was a further 20% (95% CI 10-29%; P < 0.001) reduction. Overall, there was a 12% (95% CI 7-17%, P < 0.001) proportional reduction in major coronary events during the overall follow-up period (median 6.3 years), corresponding to a 1.8% (95% CI 1.0-2.6%) absolute reduction. There were no significant effects on non-vascular mortality, site-specific cancer, or other serious adverse events. Morbidity follow-up was obtained for 25 784 (99%) participants.

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effects of anacetrapib on major coronary events increased with longer follow-up, and no adverse effects emerged on non-vascular mortality or morbidity. These findings illustrate the importance of sufficiently long treatment and follow-up duration in randomized trials of lipid-modifying agents to assess their full benefits and potential harms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 48678192; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT01252953; EudraCT No. 2010-023467-18.

ESC guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 2-care pathways, treatment, and follow-up

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular (CV) disease in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, which was reported previously, focused on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of CV conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. This second part addresses the topics of: care pathways and triage systems and management and treatment pathways, both of the most commonly encountered CV conditions and of COVID-19; and information that may be considered useful to help patients with CV disease (CVD) to avoid exposure to COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

European Society of Cardiology guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 1-epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two-part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, reported here, focuses on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of cardiovascular (CV) conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. The second part, which will follow in a later edition of the journal, addresses the topics of care pathways, treatment, and follow-up of CV conditions in patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

European Society of Cardiology methodology for the development of quality indicators for the quantification of cardiovascular care and outcomes

AIMS

It is increasingly recognized that tools are required for assessing and benchmarking quality of care in order to improve it. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) is developing a suite of quality indicators (QIs) to evaluate cardiovascular care and support the delivery of evidence-based care. This paper describes the methodology used for their development.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We propose a four-step process for the development of the ESC QIs. For a specific clinical area with a gap in care delivery, the QI development process includes: (i) the identification of key domains of care by constructing a conceptual framework of care; (ii) the construction of candidate QIs by conducting a systematic review of the literature; (iii) the selection of a final set of QIs by obtaining expert opinions using the modified Delphi method; and (iv) the undertaking of a feasibility assessment by evaluating different ways of defining the QI specifications for the proposed data collection source. For each of the four steps, key methodological areas need to be addressed to inform the implementation process and avoid misinterpretation of the measurement results.

CONCLUSION

Detailing the methodology for the ESC QIs construction enables healthcare providers to develop valid and feasible metrics to measure and improve the quality of cardiovascular care. As such, high-quality evidence may be translated into clinical practice and the 'evidence-practice' gap closed.

Net effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in different patient groups: a meta-analysis of large placebo-controlled randomized trials

BACKGROUND

The net absolute effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors across different patient groups have not been quantified.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis of published large (>500 participants/arm) placebo-controlled SGLT-2 inhibitor trials after systematically searching MEDLINE and Embase databases from inception to 28th August 2021 (PROSPERO 2021 CRD42021240468).

FINDINGS

Four heart failure trials (n=15,684 participants), four trials in type 2 diabetes mellitus at high atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk (n=42,568), and three trials in chronic kidney disease (n=19,289) were included. Relative risks (RRs) for all cardiovascular, renal and safety outcomes were broadly similar across these three patient groups, and between people with or without diabetes. Overall, compared to placebo, allocation to SGLT-2 inhibition reduced risk of hospitalization for heart failure or cardiovascular death by 23% (RR=0.77, 95%CI 0.73-0.80; n=6658), cardiovascular death by 14% (0.86, 0.81-0.92; n=3962), major adverse cardiovascular events by 11% (0.89, 0.84-0.94; n=5703), kidney disease progression by 36% (0.64, 0.59-0.70; n=2275), acute kidney injury by 30% (0.70, 0.62-0.79; n=1013 events) and severe hypoglycaemia by 13% (0.87, 0.79-0.97; n=1484). There was no effect of SGLT-2 inhibition on risk of non-cardiovascular death (0.93, 0.86-1.01; n=2226), but a net 12% reduction in all-cause mortality remained evident (0.88, 0.84-0.93; n=6188). However, the risk of ketoacidosis was 2-times higher among those allocated SGLT-2 inhibitors compared to placebo (2.03, 1.41-2.93; n=159; absolute excess in people with diabetes ∼0.3/1000 patient years). A small increased risk of urinary tract infection was evident (1.07, 1.02-1.13; n=5384) alongside a known increased risk of mycotic genital infections. Overall, risk of lower limb amputations was increased by 16% (1.16, 1.02-1.31; n=1074), but this risk was largely driven by a single outlying trial (CANVAS).

INTERPRETATIONS

The relative effects of SGLT-2 inhibition on key safety and efficacy outcomes are consistent across the different studied groups of patient. Consequently, absolute benefits and harms are determined by the absolute baseline risk of particular outcomes, with absolute benefits on mortality and on non-fatal serious cardiac/renal outcomes substantially exceeding the risks of amputation and ketoacidosis in the main patient groups studied to date.

FUNDING

MRC-UK & KRUK.

A model of lifetime health outcomes in cardiovascular disease based on clinical trials and large cohorts

Background and purpose

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of individuals depends on their socio-demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors, and treatments, and strongly influences their quality of life and survival. Individual-based long-term disease models, which aim to more accurately calculate the lifetime consequences, can help to target treatments, develop disease management programmes, and assess the value of new therapies. We present a new micro-simulation CVD model.

Methods

This micro-simulation model was developed using individual participant data from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' collaboration (CTT: 118,000 participants; 15 trials) and calibrated (with added socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, physical activity, mental illness, cancer and incident diabetes) in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants). Parametric survival models estimated risks of key endpoints (myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularisation (CRV), diabetes, cancer and vascular (VD) and nonvascular death (NVD) using participants' age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking history, lipids, blood pressure, creatinine, previous cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, mental illness and cancer at entry and non-fatal incidents of the key endpoints during follow-up. The model integrates the risk equations and enables annual projection of endpoints and survival over individuals' lifetimes. The model was used to project remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants.

Results

Nonfatal cardiovascular events and age were the major determinants of CVD risk and, together with incident diabetes and cancer, of individuals' survival. The cumulative incidence of the key endpoints predicted by the CTT-UKB model corresponded well to their observed incidence in the UK Biobank cohort, overall (Figure 1) and in categories of participants by age, sex, prior CVD and CVD risk. Predicted remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants without history of CVD ranged between 22 and 43 years in men and between 24 and 46 years in women, depending on their age and CVD risk (Figure 2). Among UK Biobank participants with history of CVD, depending on their age, predicted remaining life expectancy ranged from 20 to 32 years in men and from 26 to 38 years in women.

Conclusion

This new lifetime CVD model accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in a large UK population cohort. It will be made available to provide individualised projections of expected lifetime health outcomes and benefits of treatments.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation Figure 1. Predicted (in black) versus observed (95% CI; in red) incidence of major clinical outcomes in the UK Biobank.Figure 2. Predicted remaining life expectancy of participants in UK Biobank cohort, by age and CVD risk or previous CVD at entry. QRISK, a 10-year CVD risk scoring algorithm for people without previous CVD, recommended for use in the UK National Health Service.

Relationship between anaemia, coagulation parameters during pregnancy and postpartum haemorrhage at childbirth: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between coagulation parameters and severity of anaemia (moderate anaemia: haemoglobin (Hb) 7-9.9 g/dL and severe anaemia: Hb <7 g/dL) during pregnancy and relate these to postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) at childbirth.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study of pregnant women recruited in the third trimester and followed-up after childbirth.

SETTING

Ten hospitals across four states in India.

PARTICIPANTS

1342 pregnant women.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable.

METHODS

Hb and coagulation parameters: fibrinogen, D-dimer, D-dimer/fibrinogen ratio, platelets and international normalised ratio (INR) were measured at baseline. Participants were followed-up to measure blood loss within 2 hours after childbirth and PPH was defined based on blood loss and clinical assessment. Associations between coagulation parameters, Hb, anaemia and PPH were examined using multivariable logistic regression models.

OUTCOMES MEASURES

Adjusted OR with 95% CI.

RESULTS

In women with severe anaemia during the third trimester, the D-dimer was 27% higher, mean fibrinogen 117 mg/dL lower, D-dimer/fibrinogen ratio 69% higher and INR 12% higher compared with women with no/mild anaemia. Mean platelets in severe anaemia was 37.8×109/L lower compared with women with moderate anaemia. Similar relationships with smaller effect sizes were identified for women with moderate anaemia compared with women with no/mild anaemia. Low Hb and high INR at third trimester of pregnancy independently increased the odds of PPH at childbirth, but the other coagulation parameters were not found to be significantly associated with PPH.

CONCLUSION

Altered blood coagulation profile in pregnant women with severe anaemia could be a risk factor for PPH and requires further evaluation.

Effects of oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation after spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage in the UK: a randomised, open-label, assessor-masked, pilot-phase, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation reduces the rate of systemic embolism for patients with atrial fibrillation by two-thirds, but its benefits for patients with previous intracranial haemorrhage are uncertain. In the Start or STop Anticoagulants Randomised Trial (SoSTART), we aimed to establish whether starting is non-inferior to avoiding oral anticoagulation for survivors of intracranial haemorrhage who have atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

SoSTART was a prospective, randomised, open-label, assessor-masked, parallel-group, pilot phase trial done at 67 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (aged ≥18 years) who had survived at least 24 h after symptomatic spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage, had atrial fibrillation, and had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 2. Web-based computerised randomisation incorporating a minimisation algorithm allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid long-term (≥1 year) full treatment dose open-label oral anticoagulation. The participants assigned to start oral anticoagulation received either a direct oral anticoagulant or vitamin K antagonist, and the group assigned to avoid oral anticoagulation received standard clinical practice (antiplatelet agent or no antithrombotic agent). The primary outcome was recurrent symptomatic spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage, and was adjudicated by an individual masked to treatment allocation. All outcomes were ascertained for at least 1 year after randomisation and assessed in the intention-to-treat population of all randomly assigned participants, using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for minimisation covariates. We planned a sample size of 190 participants (one-sided p=0·025, power 90%, allowing for non-adherence) based on a non-inferiority margin of 12% (or adjusted hazard ratio [HR] of 3·2). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03153150) and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between March 29, 2018, and Feb 27, 2020, consent was obtained at 61 sites for 218 participants, of whom 203 were randomly assigned at a median of 115 days (IQR 49-265) after intracranial haemorrhage onset. 101 were assigned to start and 102 to avoid oral anticoagulation. Participants were followed up for median of 1·2 years (IQR 0·97-1·95; completeness 97·2%). Starting oral anticoagulation was not non-inferior to avoiding oral anticoagulation: eight (8%) of 101 in the start group versus four (4%) of 102 in the avoid group had intracranial haemorrhage recurrences (adjusted HR 2·42 [95% CI 0·72-8·09]; p=0·152). Serious adverse events occurred in 17 (17%) participants in the start group and 15 (15%) in the avoid group. 22 (22%) patients in the start group and 11 (11%) patients in the avoid group died during the study.

INTERPRETATION

Whether starting oral anticoagulation was non-inferior to avoiding it for people with atrial fibrillation after intracranial haemorrhage was inconclusive, although rates of recurrent intracranial haemorrhage were lower than expected. In view of weak evidence from analyses of three composite secondary outcomes, the possibility that oral anticoagulation might be superior for preventing symptomatic major vascular events should be investigated in adequately powered randomised trials.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Chest Heart & Stroke Scotland.

Age-stratified and blood-pressure-stratified effects of blood-pressure-lowering pharmacotherapy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and death: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The effects of pharmacological blood-pressure-lowering on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals aged 70 years and older, particularly when blood pressure is not substantially increased, is uncertain. We compared the effects of blood-pressure-lowering treatment on the risk of major cardiovascular events in groups of patients stratified by age and blood pressure at baseline.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis using individual participant-level data from randomised controlled trials of pharmacological blood-pressure-lowering versus placebo or other classes of blood-pressure-lowering medications, or between more versus less intensive treatment strategies, which had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each treatment group. Participants with previous history of heart failure were excluded. Data were obtained from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Triallists' Collaboration. We pooled the data and categorised participants into baseline age groups (<55 years, 55-64 years, 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥85 years) and blood pressure categories (in 10 mm Hg increments from <120 mm Hg to ≥170 mm Hg systolic blood pressure and from <70 mm Hg to ≥110 mm Hg diastolic). We used a fixed effects one-stage approach and applied Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by trial, to analyse the data. The primary outcome was defined as either a composite of fatal or non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or ischaemic heart disease, or heart failure causing death or requiring hospital admission.

FINDINGS

We included data from 358 707 participants from 51 randomised clinical trials. The age of participants at randomisation ranged from 21 years to 105 years (median 65 years [IQR 59-75]), with 42 960 (12·0%) participants younger than 55 years, 128 437 (35·8%) aged 55-64 years, 128 506 (35·8%) 65-74 years, 54 016 (15·1%) 75-84 years, and 4788 (1·3%) 85 years and older. The hazard ratios for the risk of major cardiovascular events per 5 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure for each age group were 0·82 (95% CI 0·76-0·88) in individuals younger than 55 years, 0·91 (0·88-0·95) in those aged 55-64 years, 0·91 (0·88-0·95) in those aged 65-74 years, 0·91 (0·87-0·96) in those aged 75-84 years, and 0·99 (0·87-1·12) in those aged 85 years and older (adjusted pinteraction=0·050). Similar patterns of proportional risk reductions were observed for a 3 mm Hg reduction in diastolic blood pressure. Absolute risk reductions for major cardiovascular events varied by age and were larger in older groups (adjusted pinteraction=0·024). We did not find evidence for any clinically meaningful heterogeneity of relative treatment effects across different baseline blood pressure categories in any age group.

INTERPRETATION

Pharmacological blood pressure reduction is effective into old age, with no evidence that relative risk reductions for prevention of major cardiovascular events vary by systolic or diastolic blood pressure levels at randomisation, down to less than 120/70 mm Hg. Pharmacological blood pressure reduction should, therefore, be considered an important treatment option regardless of age, with the removal of age-related blood-pressure thresholds from international guidelines.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, National Institute of Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford Martin School.

Cardiac, renal, and metabolic effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors: a position paper from the European Society of Cardiology ad-hoc task force on sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors

In 2015, the first large-scale placebo-controlled trial designed to assess cardiovascular safety of glucose-lowering with sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition in type 2 diabetes mellitus raised hypotheses that the class could favourably modify not only risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but also hospitalization for heart failure, and the development or worsening of nephropathy. By the start of 2021, results from 10 large SGLT2 inhibitor placebo-controlled clinical outcome trials randomizing ∼71 000 individuals have confirmed that SGLT2 inhibitors can provide clinical benefits for each of these types of outcome in a range of different populations. The cardiovascular and renal benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors appear to be larger than their comparatively modest effect on glycaemic control or glycosuria alone would predict, with three trials recently reporting that clinical benefits extend to individuals without diabetes mellitus who are at risk due to established heart failure, or albuminuric chronic kidney disease. This European Society of Cardiology position paper summarizes reported results from these 10 large clinical outcome trials considering separately each of the different types of cardiorenal benefit, summarizes key molecular and pathophysiological mechanisms, and provides a synopsis of metabolic effects and safety. We also describe ongoing placebo-controlled trials among individuals with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and among individuals with chronic kidney disease.

Independent risk factors for simvastatin-related myopathy and relevance to different types of muscle symptom

Aims

Statins are widely used to prevent cardiovascular events, but little is known about the impact of different risk factors for statin-related myopathy or their relevance to reports of other types of muscle symptom.

Methods and results

An observational analysis was undertaken of 171 clinically adjudicated cases of myopathy (defined as unexplained muscle pain or weakness with creatine kinase >10× upper limit of normal) and, separately, of 15 208 cases of other muscle symptoms among 58 390 individuals with vascular disease treated with simvastatin for a mean of 3.4 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of myopathy. The rate of myopathy was low: 9 per 10 000 person-years of simvastatin therapy. Independent risk factors for myopathy included: simvastatin dose, ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, medically treated diabetes, concomitant use of niacin-laropiprant, verapamil, beta-blockers, diltiazem and diuretics. In combination, these risk factors predicted more than a 30-fold risk difference between the top and bottom thirds of a myopathy risk score (hazard ratio : 34.35, 95% CI: 12.73–92.69, P across thirds = 9·1 × 10⁻⁴⁸). However, despite the strong association with myopathy, this score was not associated with the other reported muscle symptoms (P across thirds = 0.93). Likewise, although SLCO1B1 genotype was associated with myopathy, it was not associated with other muscle symptoms.

Conclusions

The absolute risk of simvastatin-related myopathy is low, but individuals at higher risk can be identified to help guide patient management. The lack of association of the myopathy risk score with other muscle symptoms reinforces randomized placebo-controlled evidence that statins do not cause the vast majority of reported muscle symptoms.

Pharmacological blood pressure lowering for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease across different levels of blood pressure: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The effects of pharmacological blood pressure lowering at normal or high-normal blood pressure ranges in people with or without pre-existing cardiovascular disease remains uncertain. We analysed individual participant data from randomised trials to investigate the effects of blood pressure lowering treatment on the risk of major cardiovascular events by baseline levels of systolic blood pressure.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of individual participant-level data from 48 randomised trials of pharmacological blood pressure lowering medications versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure-lowering medications, or between more versus less intensive treatment regimens, which had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each group. Trials exclusively done with participants with heart failure or short-term interventions in participants with acute myocardial infarction or other acute settings were excluded. Data from 51 studies published between 1972 and 2013 were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We pooled the data to investigate the stratified effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment in participants with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease (ie, any reports of stroke, myocardial infarction, or ischaemic heart disease before randomisation), overall and across seven systolic blood pressure categories (ranging from <120 to ≥170 mm Hg). The primary outcome was a major cardiovascular event (defined as a composite of fatal and non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or ischaemic heart disease, or heart failure causing death or requiring admission to hospital), analysed as per intention to treat.

FINDINGS

Data for 344 716 participants from 48 randomised clinical trials were available for this analysis. Pre-randomisation mean systolic/diastolic blood pressures were 146/84 mm Hg in participants with previous cardiovascular disease (n=157 728) and 157/89 mm Hg in participants without previous cardiovascular disease (n=186 988). There was substantial spread in participants' blood pressure at baseline, with 31 239 (19·8%) of participants with previous cardiovascular disease and 14 928 (8·0%) of individuals without previous cardiovascular disease having a systolic blood pressure of less than 130 mm Hg. The relative effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment were proportional to the intensity of systolic blood pressure reduction. After a median 4·15 years' follow-up (Q1-Q3 2·97-4·96), 42 324 participants (12·3%) had at least one major cardiovascular event. In participants without previous cardiovascular disease at baseline, the incidence rate for developing a major cardiovascular event per 1000 person-years was 31·9 (95% CI 31·3-32·5) in the comparator group and 25·9 (25·4-26·4) in the intervention group. In participants with previous cardiovascular disease at baseline, the corresponding rates were 39·7 (95% CI 39·0-40·5) and 36·0 (95% CI 35·3-36·7), in the comparator and intervention groups, respectively. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with a reduction of systolic blood pressure by 5 mm Hg for a major cardiovascular event were 0·91, 95% CI 0·89-0·94 for partipants without previous cardiovascular disease and 0·89, 0·86-0·92, for those with previous cardiovascular disease. In stratified analyses, there was no reliable evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effects on major cardiovascular events by baseline cardiovascular disease status or systolic blood pressure categories.

INTERPRETATION

In this large-scale analysis of randomised trials, a 5 mm Hg reduction of systolic blood pressure reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events by about 10%, irrespective of previous diagnoses of cardiovascular disease, and even at normal or high-normal blood pressure values. These findings suggest that a fixed degree of pharmacological blood pressure lowering is similarly effective for primary and secondary prevention of major cardiovascular disease, even at blood pressure levels currently not considered for treatment. Physicians communicating the indication for blood pressure lowering treatment to their patients should emphasise its importance on reducing cardiovascular risk rather than focusing on blood pressure reduction itself.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Oxford Martin School.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

There are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on cancer care but there is little direct evidence to quantify any effect. This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England.

METHODS

Data were extracted from four population-based datasets spanning NHS England (the National Cancer Cancer Waiting Time Monitoring, Monthly Diagnostic, Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care and the National Radiotherapy datasets) for all referrals, colonoscopies, surgical procedures, and courses of rectal radiotherapy from Jan 1, 2019, to Oct 31, 2020, related to colorectal cancer in England. Differences in patterns of care were investigated between 2019 and 2020. Percentage reductions in monthly numbers and proportions were calculated.

FINDINGS

As compared to the monthly average in 2019, in April, 2020, there was a 63% (95% CI 53-71) reduction (from 36 274 to 13 440) in the monthly number of 2-week referrals for suspected cancer and a 92% (95% CI 89-95) reduction in the number of colonoscopies (from 46 441 to 3484). Numbers had just recovered by October, 2020. This resulted in a 22% (95% CI 8-34) relative reduction in the number of cases referred for treatment (from a monthly average of 2781 in 2019 to 2158 referrals in April, 2020). By October, 2020, the monthly rate had returned to 2019 levels but did not exceed it, suggesting that, from April to October, 2020, over 3500 fewer people had been diagnosed and treated for colorectal cancer in England than would have been expected. There was also a 31% (95% CI 19-42) relative reduction in the numbers receiving surgery in April, 2020, and a lower proportion of laparoscopic and a greater proportion of stoma-forming procedures, relative to the monthly average in 2019. By October, 2020, laparoscopic surgery and stoma rates were similar to 2019 levels. For rectal cancer, there was a 44% (95% CI 17-76) relative increase in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy in April, 2020, relative to the monthly average in 2019, due to greater use of short-course regimens. Although in June, 2020, there was a drop in the use of short-course regimens, rates remained above 2019 levels until October, 2020.

INTERPRETATION

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sustained reduction in the number of people referred, diagnosed, and treated for colorectal cancer. By October, 2020, achievement of care pathway targets had returned to 2019 levels, albeit with smaller volumes of patients and with modifications to usual practice. As pressure grows in the NHS due to the second wave of COVID-19, urgent action is needed to address the growing burden of undetected and untreated colorectal cancer in England.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, NHS Digital, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Current perceptions and practices in lipid management: results of a European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society Survey

AIMS

We sought to evaluate physicians' opinions and practices in lipid management.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A web-based survey by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS) was distributed to 70 696 individuals at two time points, before and after publication of the 2019 ESC/EAS dyslipidaemia guidelines. Respondents (1271 in the first and 1056 in the second part) were most commonly cardiologists in Europe. More than 90% of participants reported that they regularly measure lipid levels and discuss lipid-lowering treatment with patients. More than 87% found the use of LDL-C goals useful or potentially useful, although it was acknowledged that recommended goals are frequently not achieved. Regarding the LDL-C goal according to the 2019 guidelines (<1.4 mmol/L for very high-risk patients), more than 70% of respondents felt that it is based on solid scientific evidence, but 31% noted that implementation should also consider available local resources and patient preferences. Statin intolerance was perceived as infrequent, affecting 1-5% of patients according to most respondents but was the main reason for not prescribing a statin to secondary-prevention patients, followed by patient non-adherence. Although most respondents reported that 11-20% of secondary-prevention patients have an indication to add a non-statin medication, fewer patients (<10% according to most respondents) receive these medications.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey shows a high level of acceptance of the LDL-C treatment goals recommended by current ESC/EAS guidelines. Although patient-related factors were the main reported reasons for suboptimal lipid-lowering therapy, physician inertia to intensify treatment cannot be excluded as an additional contributing factor.

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD

BACKGROUND

The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown.

METHODS

Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR).

RESULTS

Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m² increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06-genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m² genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD-associated risk.

A novel approach using hand-held echocardiography to guide the diagnosis of heart failure in pregnant women in a low-resource setting; Maternal and Perinatal Health Research Collaboration

Background

Point of care imaging devices are promising tools for cardiovascular imaging in low-resource settings.

Purpose

Our aim was to determine whether hand-held echocardiography scans performed by obstetricians can help to identify the cardiac phenotypes in pregnant women with heart failure in India.

Methods

In November 2018, eighteen obstetricians from 10 hospitals across the states of Assam, Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh were given 2 days of hands-on training in image acquisition using Philips Lumify devices. Obstetricians were asked to follow a simplified protocol of image acquisition and optimisation designed by the Oxford Cardiovascular Clinical Research Facility team. The protocol includes 3 key echocardiography views; parasternal long axis, parasternal short axis, and apical four chamber. Remote supervision and constructive feedback on performance was provided to improve image quality. Echocardiographic images of 269 pregnant women (with and without suspected heart failure) were acquired by the trained obstetricians, between February 2018 and January 2020. The first 147 scans were transferred with end-to-end encryption to the University of Oxford Research Echocardiography Core Laboratory (ORECL). Image interpretation and formal quality assessment was performed by 2 experienced echocardiographers.

Results

Parasternal long axis image quality was assessed as good in 78.3%, and was superior to both the parasternal short axis view (76.5%) and the apical 4-chamber view (61.9%). Image depth and gain optimisation was the main reason for loss of quality. The acquisition quality was related to reported clinical disease severity, and advanced pregnancy status. Left ventricular systolic function was impaired in 32 participants (21.9%), and 23.3% of the cohort had a dilated left atrium. Rheumatic heart disease was found in 12 participants (8.3%), in which the mitral valve was stenotic; 10 severe and 1 moderate. Mitral regurgitation was reported in 29 cases (20.8%); 6 severe, 7 moderate and 16 mild. Tricuspid and aortic valve abnormalities were also detected. Pericardial effusion was reported in 45 participants (30.8%).

Conclusion

Obstetricians with supervised training, using hand-held echocardiography have demonstrated acceptable image acquisition quality which could be assessed through core laboratory analysis to detect cardiac abnormalities. Such an approach could be useful to guide the diagnosis of heart failure in pregnant women in low-resource settings. Further training for the obstetricians and image quality assurance have been implemented in the ongoing MaatHRI study with plans to conduct a validation analysis.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Fellowship for M Nair.

Thromboxane metabolite excretion is associated with serious vascular events in diabetes mellitus: a sub-study of the ASCEND trial

Background

Platelet activation plays a major role in the atherothrombotic complications of diabetes. Thromboxane (TX)A2 is a pro-thrombotic prostanoid, synthesized via cyclooxygenase-1 and released by activated platelets. The metabolism of TXA2 in vivo leads to a major stable end-product, 11-dehydro-TXB2 (TXM), measurable in urine and reflecting the whole-body rate of TXA2 biosynthesis. In two large trials of high-risk, aspirin-treated (mostly, without diabetes) patients, (CHARISMA and HOPE trials), the baseline rate of urinary TXM excretion was an independent predictor of future cardiovascular events.

Purpose

The aim of the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) TXM sub-study was to investigate the association between baseline urinary TXM and future serious vascular events or revascularization (SVE-R), major bleeds and incident cancer independent of other risk factors and treatment, in people with diabetes and no manifest cardiovascular disease at trial entry.

Methods

Urinary TXM was measured by a previously GC/MS-validated, immunoassay in 6,487 participants with eligible baseline samples. Analyses excluded 539 participants using NSAIDs. TXM appeared log-normally distributed, so analyses were by quintiles and per SD (=0.622) of continuous loge TXM. The association of loge TXM with outcome was adjusted by basic factors (age, sex, sample volume and randomized treatment allocation) and by the predictors of log TXM (smoking, type 2 diabetes treated with insulin or oral hypoglycaemics, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, eGFR). The association of log TXM with non-vascular, non-cancer MedDRA outcomes was investigated to determine whether TXM had a general effect on outcome. During a mean of 6.6 years follow-up there were 618 SVE-Rs, 206 bleeds and 700 cancers among these patients.

Results

Log TXM correlated significantly with SVE-R, hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD of log TXM: 1.13 (1.04–1.23), p=0.003 (Figure 1, panel a), non-significantly with major bleeds [HR 1.15 (1.00–1.32), p=0.055] (Figure 1, panel b), and marginally significantly with cancer [HR 1.09 (1.01–1.17), p=0.03] (Figure 1, panel c). There was no association of log TXM with non-vascular non-cancer MedDRA outcomes (HR per 1 SD, 0.99; 99% CI, 0.94–1.05).

Conclusion

The rate of urinary TXM excretion, a non-invasive biomarker of TXA2-mediated platelet activation in vivo, is log-linearly associated with serious vascular events independent of other risk factors in people with diabetes. Its potential association with cancer must be viewed as hypothesis-generating and needs confirmation.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): IMI1: Surrogate markers for micro- and macro-vascular hard endpoints for innovative diabetes tools (SUMMIT).