Effect of Indian clubbell exercises on cricket fast bowlers' shoulder kinematics

Background

The glenohumeral joint's rotational range of motion (ROM) and muscle strength are essential to execute the cricket bowling action. Performing shoulder rotation exercises may increase the rotator cuff muscle strength and rotational ROM.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to test the effect of a six-week exercise programme on shoulder rotational ROM and muscle strength.

Methods

Twenty-one healthy male cricket fast bowlers were recruited, ranked and pair-matched on initial shoulder rotator muscle strength and assigned to either a shoulder exercise (SE) group or cricket training (CT) only group. The SE group incorporated Indian clubbell exercises in addition to their cricket training.

Results

Bowlers in both groups displayed a large increase on the dominant shoulder's internal rotation (IR) ROM, but only the SE group's bowlers displayed ROM improvements (p<0.001) bilaterally for both internal and external rotation. The CT group's fast bowler's non-dominant shoulder IR ROM significantly decreased (p=0.02) during the six weeks. Between groups, only the SE group's bowler's internal rotator muscle strength improved (p<0.001) bilaterally. The observed kinematic changes were statistically significantly greater at a 5% level for the SE group's bowlers (bilateral internal rotators muscle strength, non-dominant shoulder IR ROM and horizontal adduction ROM).

Conclusion

Maintenance of the shoulder's rotational ROM and muscle strength is vital for a fast bowler. Cricket bowlers who perform regular clubbell exercises might increase their shoulder's ROM and internal rotator cuffs' muscle strength, which may aid in stabilising their glenohumeral joint while bowling.

Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements

It is well established that nighttime radiance, measured from satellites, correlates with economic prosperity across the globe. In developing countries, areas with low levels of detected radiance generally indicate limited development - with unlit areas typically being disregarded. Here we combine satellite nighttime lights and the world settlement footprint for the year 2015 to show that 19% of the total settlement footprint of the planet had no detectable artificial radiance associated with it. The majority of unlit settlement footprints are found in Africa (39%), rising to 65% if we consider only rural settlement areas, along with numerous countries in the Middle East and Asia. Significant areas of unlit settlements are also located in some developed countries. For 49 countries spread across Africa, Asia and the Americas we are able to predict and map the wealth class obtained from ~2,400,000 geo-located households based upon the percent of unlit settlements, with an overall accuracy of 87%.

Soil cadmium mobilisation by dissolved organic matter from soil amendments

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) release from Cd contaminated soils been linked to mobilisation of the metal as Cd-DOM complexes and this may be exacerbated by organic matter-rich soil amendments. The quantity and quality of the DOM can determine the proportion of dissolved Cd that partitions to mobile complexes and their stability and, thus, the potential for Cd transport from contaminated soils. The aim of this work was to examine differences in Cd mobilisation from soils to which different types of soil amendments/conditioners have been applied and the importance of DOM characteristics in determining the extent to which this can happen. Three soils were spiked with Cd to 2 mg kg^-1, allowed to equilibrate and then treated with compost and peat. These soils and an untreated subsample of each soil were then adjusted to three different pHs: 5.6, 6.4 and 7.4, using lime. The amount of Cd mobilised from each soil was tested using a column leaching experiment. Ultrafiltration and speciation modelling were used to determine amounts of Cd as DOM-complexed, "truly" dissolved (<5 kDa) and colloidal species, while DOM quality was assessed using UV-Vis and fluorescence spectroscopy. Most colloidal Cd was mobilised from the compost treated soils (50%-60%), followed by the peat treated soils (20-44%). The relationships between colloidal Cd, DOC concentration and soil pH, together with the spectroscopic and modelling results showed that structural properties of DOM are an important factor in mobilising Cd from contaminated soils.

Investigating the environmental, behavioural, and sociodemographic determinants of attendance at a city-wide public health physical activity intervention: Longitudinal evidence over one year from 185,245 visits

Understanding the determinants of attendance at public health interventions is critical for effective policy development. Most research focuses on individual-level determinants of attendance, while less is known about environmental-level determinants. Data were obtained from the Leeds Let's Get Active public health intervention in Leeds, England. Longitudinal data (April 2015-March 2016) on attendance were obtained for n = 25,745 individuals (n = 185,245 total visits) with baseline data on sociodemographic determinants and lifestyle practices obtained for n = 3621 individuals. This resulted in a total of n = 744,468 days of attendance and non-attendance. Random forests were used to explore the relative importance of the determinants on attendance, while generalised linear models were applied to examine specific associations (n = 3621). The probability that a person will attend more than once, the number of return visits, and the probability that a person will attend on a particular day were investigated. When considering if a person returned to the same leisure centre after one visit, the most influential determinant was the distance from their home. When considering number of return visits overall however, age group was the most influential. While distance to a leisure centre was less important for predicting the number of return visits, the difference between estimates for 300 m and 15,000 m was 7-10 visits per year. Finally, calendar month was the most important determinant of daily attendance. This longitudinal study highlights the importance of both individual and environmental determinants in predicting various aspects of attendance. It has implications for strategies aiming to increase attendance at public health interventions.

Expressing uncertainty in Human-Robot interaction

Most people struggle to understand probability which is an issue for Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) researchers who need to communicate risks and uncertainties to the participants in their studies, the media and policy makers. Previous work showed that even the use of numerical values to express probabilities does not guarantee an accurate understanding by laypeople. We therefore investigate if words can be used to communicate probability, such as "likely" and "almost certainly not". We embedded these phrases in the context of the usage of autonomous vehicles. The results show that the association of phrases to percentages is not random and there is a preferred order of phrases. The association is, however, not as consistent as hoped for. Hence, it would be advisable to complement the use of words with numerical expression of uncertainty. This study provides an empirically verified list of probabilities phrases that HRI researchers can use to complement the numerical values.

Spatio-temporal analysis of differences in campylobacteriosis incidence between urban and rural areas in the Southern District Health Board, New Zealand

The objective of this paper is to investigate differences in campylobacteriosis incidence between urban and rural areas in the Southern District Health Board of New Zealand between 2000 and 2015. The data were analysed using a Bayesian change-point model to evaluate how campylobacteriosis incidence changed over time and to see whether the dynamics differed between rural and urban areas. A conditional auto regressive error term was introduced to account for any spatial effects. The results of our analysis showed that campylobacteriosis incidence increased between 2000 and 2005, decreased between 2006 and 2008 then stabilised from 2009 onward. In addition we found that the changes in incidence were greater in urban areas than in rural ones.

GWAS on longitudinal growth traits reveals different genetic factors influencing infant, child, and adult BMI

Early childhood growth patterns are associated with adult health, yet the genetic factors and the developmental stages involved are not fully understood. Here, we combine genome-wide association studies with modeling of longitudinal growth traits to study the genetics of infant and child growth, followed by functional, pathway, genetic correlation, risk score, and colocalization analyses to determine how developmental timings, molecular pathways, and genetic determinants of these traits overlap with those of adult health. We found a robust overlap between the genetics of child and adult body mass index (BMI), with variants associated with adult BMI acting as early as 4 to 6 years old. However, we demonstrated a completely distinct genetic makeup for peak BMI during infancy, influenced by variation at the LEPR/LEPROT locus. These findings suggest that different genetic factors control infant and child BMI. In light of the obesity epidemic, these findings are important to inform the timing and targets of prevention strategies.

Long seed dispersal distances by an inquisitive flightless rail (Gallirallus australis) are reduced by interaction with humans

Human presence is becoming increasingly ubiquitous, but the influence this has on the seed dispersal services performed by frugivorous animals is largely unknown. The New Zealand weka (Gallirallus australis) is an inquisitive flightless rail that frequently congregates in areas of high human use. Weka are important seed dispersers, yet the seed dispersal services they provide are still poorly understood. We estimated seed dispersal distances of weka for two plant species (Prumnopitys ferruginea and Elaeocarpus dentatus) and tested how human interaction affected these dispersal distances. We estimated weka seed dispersal distances by combining GPS data from 39 weka over three sites with weka seed retention time data in a mechanistic model. The mean seed retention times were extremely long (38-125 h). Weka were highly effective dispersers, dispersing 93-96% of seeds away from parent canopies, and 1% of seeds over 1 km. However, we found evidence of a significant human impact on the seed dispersal distances of weka, with birds occupying areas of high human use performing 34.8-40.9% shorter distances than their more remote counterparts. This represents an example of cryptic function loss, where although weka are still present in the ecosystem, their seed dispersal services are impaired by human interaction.

Estimating the global distribution of field size using crowdsourcing

There is an increasing evidence that smallholder farms contribute substantially to food production globally, yet spatially explicit data on agricultural field sizes are currently lacking. Automated field size delineation using remote sensing or the estimation of average farm size at subnational level using census data are two approaches that have been used. However, both have limitations, for example, automatic field size delineation using remote sensing has not yet been implemented at a global scale while the spatial resolution is very coarse when using census data. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017, where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo-Wiki application. During the campaign, participants collected field size data for 130 K unique locations around the globe. Using this sample, we have produced the most accurate global field size map to date and estimated the percentage of different field sizes, ranging from very small to very large, in agricultural areas at global, continental, and national levels. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available and can be used for integrated assessment modeling, comparative studies of agricultural dynamics across different contexts, for training and validation of remote sensing field size delineation, and potential contributions to the Sustainable Development Goal of Ending hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.

Introduction of mammalian seed predators and the loss of an endemic flightless bird impair seed dispersal of the New Zealand tree Elaeocarpus dentatus

Understanding the mutualistic services provided by species is critical when considering both the consequences of their loss or the benefits of their reintroduction. Like many other Pacific islands, New Zealand seed dispersal networks have been changed by both significant losses of large frugivorous birds and the introduction of invasive mammals. These changes are particularly concerning when important dispersers remain unidentified. We tested the impact of frugivore declines and invasive seed predators on seed dispersal for an endemic tree, hinau Elaeocarpus dentatus, by comparing seed dispersal and predation rates on the mainland of New Zealand with offshore sanctuary islands with higher bird and lower mammal numbers. We used cameras and seed traps to measure predation and dispersal from the ground and canopy, respectively. We found that canopy fruit handling rates (an index of dispersal quantity) were poor even on island sanctuaries (only 14% of seeds captured below parent trees on islands had passed through a bird), which suggests that hinau may be adapted for ground-based dispersal by flightless birds. Ground-based dispersal of hinau was low on the New Zealand mainland compared to sanctuary islands (4% of seeds dispersed on the mainland vs. 76% dispersed on islands), due to low frugivore numbers. A flightless endemic rail (Gallirallus australis) conducted the majority of ground-based fruit removal on islands. Despite being threatened, this rail is controversial in restoration projects because of its predatory impacts on native fauna. Our study demonstrates the importance of testing which species perform important mutualistic services, rather than simply relying on logical assumptions.

Evaluating statistical model performance in water quality prediction

Exposure to contaminated water while swimming or boating or participating in other recreational activities can cause gastrointestinal and respiratory disease. It is not uncommon for water bodies to experience rapid fluctuations in water quality, and it is therefore vital to be able to predict them accurately and in time so as to minimise population's exposure to pathogenic organisms. E. coli is commonly used as an indicator to measure water quality in freshwater, and higher counts of E. coli are associated with increased risk to illness. In this case study, we compare the performance of a wide range of statistical models in prediction of water quality via E. coli levels for the weekly data collected over the summer months from 2006 to 2014 at the recreational site on the Oreti river in Wallacetown, New Zealand. The models include naive model, multiple linear regression, dynamic regression, regression tree, Markov chain, classification tree, random forests, multinomial logistic regression, discriminant analysis and Bayesian network. The results show that Bayesian network was superior to all the other models. Overall, it had a leave-one-out and k-fold cross validation error rate of 21%, while predicting the majority of instances of E. coli levels classified as unsafe by the Microbiological Water Quality Guidelines for Marine and Freshwater Recreational Areas 2003, New Zealand. Because Bayesian networks are also flexible in handling missing data and outliers and allow for continuous updating in real time, we have found them to be a promising tool, and in the future, plan to extend the analysis beyond the current case study site.

LEGO products have become more complex

The LEGO Group has become the largest toy company in the world and they can look back to a proud history of more than 50 years of producing bricks and other toys. Starting with a simple set of basic bricks their range of toys appeared to have increased in complexity over the years. We processed the inventories of most sets from 1955–2015 and our analysis showed that LEGO sets have become bigger, more colorful and more specialized. The vocabulary of bricks has increased significantly resulting in sets sharing fewer bricks. The increased complexity of LEGO sets and bricks enables skilled builders to design ever more amazing models but it may also overwhelm less skilled or younger builders.

Nesting Ecology of a Small Montane Population of the Nigerian/Cameroon Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) in Nigeria

Understanding nest site choice by chimpanzees has implications for ecology, anthropology, and in the collection of census data, yet it remains controversial. Here we provide the first information on environmental factors affecting nest site choice in a montane population of the rare and relatively understudied Nigerian/Cameroon chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) in Ngel Nyaki Forest Reserve, Nigeria. The forest is small, isolated, and visited by researchers, community members, and hunters. We also tested the hypothesis that people (researchers) walking along forest trails collecting data on a regular basis since 2005 will have changed nesting behaviour in the vicinity of the trails. Along the trails searched for nests, the chimpanzees used a subset of 35 (28.5%) of all available tree species. The top 5 nest tree species represented 16% of all non-nest tree species. The nest trees were on steeper than average slopes and the trees themselves were shorter and had a smaller DBH (diameter at breast height) than trees without nests. We found no evidence to suggest a change in nesting behaviour along trails compared with off trails; however, the average nest height today is considerably higher than it was in 2004, which may indicate a change in behaviour across the whole forest.

Erratum to: 36th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine: Brussels, Belgium. 15-18 March 2016

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13054-016-1208-6.].

Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny, unlike the influence of soil data. Here we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected for GGCM simulations to weather-induced yield variability. Without fertilizer application, soil-type-related yield variability generally outweighs the simulated inter-annual variability in yield due to weather. Increasing applications of fertilizer and irrigation reduce this variability until it is practically negligible. Importantly, estimated climate change effects on yield can be either negative or positive depending on the chosen soil type. Soils thus have the capacity to either buffer or amplify these impacts. Our findings call for improvements in soil data available for crop modelling and more explicit accounting for soil variability in GGCM simulations.

Global gridded crop models are increasingly used to assess climate change impacts on food production. Here, the authors assess crop yield uncertainty associated with soil data input, reporting that soil type strongly influences yield estimates, and may either buffer or amplify climate-related impacts.

Have LEGO Products Become More Violent?

Although television, computer games and the Internet play an important role in the lives of children they still also play with physical toys, such as dolls, cars and LEGO bricks. The LEGO company has become the world’s largest toy manufacturer. Our study investigates if the LEGO company’s products have become more violent over time. First, we analyzed the frequency of weapon bricks in LEGO sets. Their use has significantly increased. Second, we empirically investigated the perceived violence in the LEGO product catalogs from the years 1978–2014. Our results show that the violence of the depicted products has increased significantly over time. The LEGO Company’s products are not as innocent as they used to be.

Mapping global cropland and field size

A new 1 km global IIASA-IFPRI cropland percentage map for the baseline year 2005 has been developed which integrates a number of individual cropland maps at global to regional to national scales. The individual map products include existing global land cover maps such as GlobCover 2005 and MODIS v.5, regional maps such as AFRICOVER and national maps from mapping agencies and other organizations. The different products are ranked at the national level using crowdsourced data from Geo-Wiki to create a map that reflects the likelihood of cropland. Calibration with national and subnational crop statistics was then undertaken to distribute the cropland within each country and subnational unit. The new IIASA-IFPRI cropland product has been validated using very high-resolution satellite imagery via Geo-Wiki and has an overall accuracy of 82.4%. It has also been compared with the EarthStat cropland product and shows a lower root mean square error on an independent data set collected from Geo-Wiki. The first ever global field size map was produced at the same resolution as the IIASA-IFPRI cropland map based on interpolation of field size data collected via a Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing campaign. A validation exercise of the global field size map revealed satisfactory agreement with control data, particularly given the relatively modest size of the field size data set used to create the map. Both are critical inputs to global agricultural monitoring in the frame of GEOGLAM and will serve the global land modelling and integrated assessment community, in particular for improving land use models that require baseline cropland information. These products are freely available for downloading from the http://cropland.geo-wiki.org website.

Comparing the similarity of responses received from studies in Amazon's Mechanical Turk to studies conducted online and with direct recruitment

Computer and internet based questionnaires have become a standard tool in Human-Computer Interaction research and other related fields, such as psychology and sociology. Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (AMT) service is a new method of recruiting participants and conducting certain types of experiments. This study compares whether participants recruited through AMT give different responses than participants recruited through an online forum or recruited directly on a university campus. Moreover, we compare whether a study conducted within AMT results in different responses compared to a study for which participants are recruited through AMT but which is conducted using an external online questionnaire service. The results of this study show that there is a statistical difference between results obtained from participants recruited through AMT compared to the results from the participant recruited on campus or through online forums. We do, however, argue that this difference is so small that it has no practical consequence. There was no significant difference between running the study within AMT compared to running it with an online questionnaire service. There was no significant difference between results obtained directly from within AMT compared to results obtained in the campus and online forum condition. This may suggest that AMT is a viable and economical option for recruiting participants and for conducting studies as setting up and running a study with AMT generally requires less effort and time compared to other frequently used methods. We discuss our findings as well as limitations of using AMT for empirical studies.

Spatial analysis of suicide mortality in Québec: spatial clustering and area factor correlates

Understanding the spatial distribution of suicide can inform the planning, implementation and evaluation of suicide prevention actions. No previous study has assessed spatial clustering of the different methods of suicide in Quebec. The aim of this study was to assess spatial clustering of suicide in Quebec between 2004 and 2007 and neighborhood level predictors of the clusters. Scan statistics was applied to detect clusters of suicides by method and by sex. Smoothed standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for suicide for each neighborhood were also estimated and their association with neighborhood characteristics was investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical spatial model. The pattern of suicide rate was different among men and women; men showed higher standardized mortality rates. The most likely clusters of suicide were found in remote rural areas. However, some neighborhoods in urban areas also had noticeable suicide clusters. Firearms suicide was most likely found in remote rural areas while poisoning and hanging suicide methods clustered in urban areas. These findings suggest that it is important to take geographical variations into account in national policy and health services planning.

Blunted hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and insulin response to psychosocial stress in young adults born preterm at very low birth weight

BACKGROUND

Young adults born preterm at very low birth weight (VLBW, ≤1500 g) have higher levels of cardiovascular risk factors, including impaired glucose regulation, than their term-born peers. This could be mediated through altered hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA) response to stress.

OBJECTIVE

To compare HPAA, glucose and insulin responses provoked by psychosocial stress in VLBW subjects versus a comparison group of term-born controls.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

We studied 54 unimpaired young adults, aged 19-27 years, born at VLBW and a comparison group of 40 adults born at term, group-matched for age, sex and birth hospital, from one regional centre in southern Finland. The participants underwent a standardized psychosocial stress test (Trier Social Stress Test, TSST).

MEASUREMENTS

In conjunction with TSST, we measured salivary cortisol, plasma ACTH, cortisol, glucose and insulin. Data were analysed with mixed-effects model and multiple linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

Baseline concentrations for cortisol, ACTH, insulin and glucose were similar in VLBW and comparison groups. During TSST, analysed with mixed-effects model, overall concentrations of plasma cortisol were 17·2% lower (95% CI; 3·5 to 28·9) in the VLBW group. The VLBW group also had lower salivary (P = 0·04) and plasma cortisol (P = 0·02) responses to TSST. Insulin and glucose concentrations correlated with changes in cortisol concentrations. Accordingly, VLBW subjects had 26·5% lower increment in insulin (95% CI; 9·8-40·1). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hormonal contraception, menstrual cycle phase, time of day and parental education.

CONCLUSIONS

VLBW adults have lower HPAA responses to psychosocial stress than term-born controls. This is accompanied by a lower insulin response.

Bayesian modeling of the evolution of male height in 18th century Finland from incomplete data

Data on army recruits' height are frequently available and can be used to analyze the economics and welfare of the population in different periods of history. However, such data are not a random sample from the whole population at the time of interest, but instead is skewed since the short men were less likely to be recruited. In statistical terms this means that the data are left-truncated. Although truncation is well-understood in statistics a further complication is that the truncation threshold is not known, may vary from time to time, and auxiliary information on the threshold is not at our disposal. The advantage of the fully Bayesian approach presented here is that both the population height distribution and the truncation are modeled simultaneously. The truncation threshold is allowed to be random and time-specific whilst the height distribution is assumed to change smoothly in time. Thus, in addition to the population height characteristics, we obtain also insight into recruiting criteria over time. Analysis of historical data from Swedish army recruitment in eight time events between 1768 and 1804 has found a declining trend in the mean population height during the inspected time period and also dramatic systematic changes in the recruiting.

Seasonality and ambient temperature at time of conception in term-born individuals - influences on cardiovascular disease and obesity in adult life

Background

The influence of environmental conditions early in life – including temperature and season – on health later in life has so far not attracted much attention.

Objective

Using data from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study of 13,345 men and women, the influence of temperature and season at month of conception on birth weight, and on cardiovascular diseases and obesity-related traits in later life was studied.

Design

Linear regressions were fitted to examine the relationship between birth weight/obesity-related variables/hypertension and alternatively month of conception and average temperature of month of conception. The incidence of both coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease was assumed to follow a Weibull hazard model, and was modelled accordingly using survival analysis techniques.

Results

In women, unusually cold temperatures at month of conception predicted lower body mass index (BMI) and fat percentage, and protected from obesity. Warmer temperatures at month of conception were associated with higher risk for hypertension. In men, warmer temperatures around conception predicted lower BMI. No seasonal influences were detected on obesity-related variables, nor were there seasonal or temperature mediated influences on birth weight, coronary heart disease or cerebrovascular disease observed.

Conclusions

We suggest that ambient temperature has an influence on obesity-related outcomes and hypertension. This merits further study, also with regard to other health outcomes and from a global perspective.

Birth-weight and resting metabolic rate in adulthood - sex-specific differences

INTRODUCTION

Low birth-weight is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adulthood. Resting metabolic rate (RMR) has been suggested to be associated with the development of obesity as well as MetS and might be an indirect indicator of sympathetic activity. This study's aim was to examine the association between birth-weight and adult RMR.

METHODS

A total of 896 men and women from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study born 1934-44, for whom a detailed set of birth records were available, underwent measurement of body composition and RMR in adulthood.

RESULTS

Among women, birth-weight adjusted for age and fat-free mass (FFM) was inversely associated with RMR (r = -0.12; P < 0.01). For men, a u-shaped relationship was observed, both independently and after adjustment for age, fat mass, and FFM (P = 0.05 for final model).

DISCUSSION

The sex-specific differences for the association between birth-weight and adult RMR might partly be explained by differences in the developmental programming of the sympathetic nervous system between men and women. The higher adjusted RMR among those with the lowest birth-weights is consistent with previous evidence of higher sympathetic drive among these individuals.

The regional association of rising type 2 diabetes incidence with magnesium in drinking water among young adults

The incidence of type 2 diabetes is increasing among Finnish young adults. A slightly increased risk in men was found in the north-east and western part of the country. The higher risk areas in women were found in the western coastal area and in eastern Finland. The present register-based study aimed to evaluate the regional association of the incidence of type 2 diabetes among young adults with the concentration of magnesium in local ground water. The association was evaluated using Bayesian modeling of geo-referenced data aggregated into a regular 10 km × 10 km grid cells. No marked association was found, although suggestive findings were detected for magnesium in well water and diabetes in young adult women. The results of this register-based study did not completely rule out the association of well water magnesium with the geographical variation of type 2 diabetes. The incidence of type 2 diabetes was much higher among individuals aged 40 or over. These suggestive findings indicate that the association between magnesium and type 2 diabetes would also be worth examining among individuals over 40 years of age.

The association between salt intake and adult systolic blood pressure is modified by birth weight

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic evidence suggests that prenatal growth influences adult blood pressure. Nutritional factors, including salt intake, also influence blood pressure. However, it is unknown whether prenatal growth modifies the association between salt intake and blood pressure in later life.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to examine whether the relation between salt intake and adult blood pressure is modified by birth weight.

DESIGN

We studied 1512 participants of the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study who were born between 1934 and 1944. Information on birth weight was abstracted from birth records, and preterm births were excluded. During a clinical study, at the mean age of 62 y, blood pressure, weight, and height were measured. Diet was assessed with a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The relation between salt intake and blood pressure was tested by a piecewise multivariate regression analysis with the best fitting breakpoints to birth weight and salt intake.

RESULTS

An inverse association was observed between birth weight and systolic blood pressure (SBP) (P = 0.02). No significant association between salt intake and SBP was observed in the whole study population. Of those whose birth weight was ≤3050 g, a 1-g higher daily salt intake was associated with a 2.48-mm Hg (95% CI: 0.40, 4.52 mm Hg) higher SBP (P = 0.017) until the saturation point of 10 g. Of those whose birth weight exceeded 3050 g, SBP was not significantly associated with salt intake. For diastolic blood pressure, no significant relations were observed.

CONCLUSION

Adult individuals with low birth weight may be particularly sensitive to the blood pressure-raising effect of salt.

Childhood BMI trajectories and the risk of developing young adult-onset diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of childhood BMI growth dynamics on the risk of developing young adult-onset type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Finnish national healthcare registers were used to identify individuals with diabetes diagnosed between 1992 and 1996 at 15-39 years of age. Non-diabetic control participants were chosen from the National Population Registry. Anthropometric measurements were obtained from the original child welfare clinic records. Only the case-control pairs with sufficient growth data recorded were included in the analyses (218/1,388 for type 1 diabetes [16%] and 64/1,121 for type 2 diabetes [6%]). Two developmental stages in BMI growth (the points of infancy maximum BMI and the BMI rebound) were examined, and conditional logistic regression was applied to the variables of interest.

RESULTS

The risk for type 1 diabetes increased 1.19-fold per 1 kg/m(2) rise in the infancy maximum BMI (p = 0.02). In addition, there was a 1.77-fold increase in the risk for type 2 diabetes per 1 kg/m(2) rise in the level of BMI at the BMI rebound (p = 0.04). Higher values of BMI at these points corresponded to a larger BMI gain from birth to that developmental stage. Age at the infancy maximum BMI or age at the BMI rebound did not affect the risk for either type of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The BMI gain in infancy among individuals who subsequently developed young adult-onset type 1 diabetes was faster than that of those who remained healthy. The excess BMI gain in individuals who developed young adult-onset type 2 diabetes could already be seen during early childhood.

Genetic random effects model for family data with long-term survivors: analysis of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes

A shared and additive genetic variance component-long-term survivor (LTS) model for familial aggregation studies of complex diseases with variable age-at-onset phenotype and non-susceptible subjects in the study cohort is proposed. LTS has been used from the early 1970s, especially in epidemiological studies of cancer. The LTS model utilizes information on the age at onset (survival) distribution to make inference on partially latent susceptibility. Bayesian modeling with uninformative priors is used and estimates of the posterior distribution of age at onset and susceptibility parameters of interest have been obtained using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with OpenBugs program. A simulation study confirms that we obtain posterior estimates of the model parameters on shared and genetic variance components of age at onset and susceptibility with good coverage rates. Further, we analyze familial aggregation of diabetic nephropathy (DN) in large Finnish cohort of 528 sibships with type 1 diabetes (T1D). According to the variance components estimated a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility to DN exist among families, while time to DN is less influenced by shared familial factors.

The effect of birth order and parental age on the risk of type 1 and 2 diabetes among young adults

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of birth order and parental age on the risk of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among Finnish individuals aged 15-39 years.

METHODS

Data on all cases of type 1 diabetes (n = 1,345) and type 2 diabetes (n = 1,072), diagnosed between 1992 and 1996, were collected from four sources: standardised national reports from diabetes nurses, the National Hospital Discharge Register, the Drug Prescription Register and the Drug Reimbursement Register. Information on matched controls and the family members of all study subjects were obtained from the National Population Registry. The odds ratios (ORs) for both types of diabetes were estimated using a conditional logistic regression model.

RESULTS

There was a U-shaped relationship between maternal age and the risk of type 2 diabetes in the offspring: the risk was higher in children born to young and old mothers compared with children born to mothers aged around 30 years. The children born second (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.62-0.94), third (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.95), or fourth (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.47-0.94) had a lower risk of type 2 diabetes than the first-born children. Maternal age, paternal age, and birth order did not have an effect on the risk of type 1 diabetes in the individuals aged 15-39 years at the time of diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Maternal age and birth order are both associated with the risk of early-onset type 2 diabetes. However, part of these associations may be due to low birthweight. In this study neither parental age nor birth order showed a significant association with the risk of type 1 diabetes diagnosed after 15 years of age.

A high incidence of type 1 diabetes and an alarming increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among young adults in Finland between 1992 and 1996

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the incidence and trends of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the 15-39 year-old population between 1992 and 1996 in Finland.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Data on the nationwide incidence of diabetes were obtained from four data sources: standardised reports from diabetes nurses, the Finnish National Hospital Discharge Register, the Drug Reimbursement Register and the Drug Prescription Register. The inclusion criterion was consistency in the diagnosis of diabetes across at least two data sources. The sex- and age-specific incidence was calculated for 5-year age groups, both for type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The effects of age, sex and year of diagnosis were assessed by fitting the linear regression model to the incidence data.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 1996 the age-adjusted incidence of type 1 diabetes among 15-39 year olds was 15.9 per 100,000/year. The incidence was highest among the 15-19 year olds and decreased with age. Conversely, the incidence of type 2 diabetes was very low among 15-19 year olds and increased with age. The total age-adjusted incidence of type 2 diabetes among 15-39 year olds was 11.8 per 100,000/year. The average annual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes was 7.9% (95% CI 3.7-12.2%).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The age at which the Finnish population is at risk of type 1 diabetes extends into young adulthood. The rapid increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the young adult population is a current public health problem.