Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Teaching Back Health in the School Setting: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

School-based interventions have reported effectiveness on back health; however, there are no specific guidelines for teaching body mechanics and posture in primary and secondary schools. To identify, describe, and analyze the educative features of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on back health developed to date in the school setting, a systematic review was performed following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) recommendations. RCTs exclusively focused on educational setting electronic databases included PubMed, EMBASE, PEDro, Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, ERIC, and MEDLINE on the Ovid platform. Databases were searched for potentially eligible studies from the earliest date up to 18th March 2020. A total of 584 records were obtained from the database searches. A total of six articles that applied inclusion criteria were assessed for eligibility. All of these studies found improvements in postural habits and the level of knowledge with regard to back health, as well as a reduction in the prevalence of back pain. None of the studies used the student-centered method, and three studies used evaluation instruments with a pilot validation. Research on RCT interventions concerning back health in the school setting is scarce. None of the interventions applied a constructivist or student-centered method. The use of validated and standardized assessment instruments is required.

The Burden of Malnutrition and Fatal COVID-19: A Global Burden of Disease Analysis

Background: Although reasonable to assume, it is not yet clear whether malnourished countries are at higher risk for severe or fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aims to identify the countries where prevalent malnutrition may be a driving factor for fatal disease after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, country-level burden of malnutrition was quantified using four indicators: death rates for child growth failure (underweight, stunting, and/or wasting) and years lived with disability (YLD) attributed to iron and vitamin A deficiencies and high body mass index (BMI). Global mortality descriptors of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic were extracted from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and case fatality ratios (CFRs) were calculated introducing a lag time of 10 weeks after the first death of a confirmed case. Bivariate analyses for 172 countries were carried out for malnutrition indicators and fatal COVID-19. Correlations between burden indicators were characterized by Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (ρ) and visually by scatterplots. Restricted cubic splines and underlying negative binomial regressions adjusted for countries' age-structure, prevalent chronic comorbidities related to COVID-19, population density, and income group were used to explore non-linear relationships. Results: Stratified by the World Bank income group, a moderate positive association between YLD rates for iron deficiency and CFRs for COVID-19 was observed for low-income countries (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.027), whereas no clear indications for the association with child growth failure, vitamin A deficiency, or high BMI were found (ρ < 0.30). Countries ranking high on at least three malnutrition indicators and presenting also an elevated CFR for COVID-19 are sub-Saharan African countries, namely, Angola, Burkina Faso, Chad, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Sudan, and Tanzania, as well as Yemen and Guyana. Conclusions: Population-level malnutrition appears to be related to increased rates of fatal COVID-19 in areas with an elevated burden of undernutrition, such as countries in the Sahel strip. COVID-19 response plans in malnourished countries, vulnerable to fatal COVID-19, should incorporate food security, nutrition, and social protection as a priority component in order to reduce COVID-19 fatality.

Association between Fruit and Vegetable Consumption and Depression Symptoms in Young People and Adults Aged 15-45: A Systematic Review of Cohort Studies

Higher consumption of fruit and vegetables has been associated with a lower risk of various chronic diseases including coronary heart disease, obesity, and certain cancers. Recently, fruit and vegetable intake has also been linked with mental health, including depression; however, this area is largely unexplored studies in young people and adults. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the association between fruit and vegetable intake and depressive symptoms in young people and adults aged 15-45. The review used a predefined protocol registered with International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) database (ID no: CRD42018091642). The systematic review focused on peer-reviewed cohort studies published from 1 January 2000 to 31 August 2020 using searches of six electronic databases. The exposure was fruit and vegetable consumption analysed both separately and/or together, and the outcome was depression or depressive symptoms. Data from eligible studies were extracted according to predefined criteria and the studies were appraised using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) for cohort studies to evaluate for study quality and risk of bias. A total of 12 studies from seven countries were deemed eligible and included in the qualitative synthesis, one study was categorised as "very good" quality, nine studies were "good" quality, and two studies were "moderate" quality by the quality assessment based on the total score for the NOS. The majority of cohort studies support the evidence that fruit consumption is associated with decreased risk of developing depression. However, the inconsistent results were observed when the effects of vegetable consumption were analysed independently, and the effects of fruit and vegetables combined were analysed. Despite this, the evidence seems to be building that a possible association exists, and this may have implications for addressing the burden of mental illness in young people and adults aged 15-45 years. More well-designed prospective cohort studies are needed to provide more robust evidence on the relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and depression.

Choosing important health outcomes for comparative effectiveness research: 6th annual update to a systematic review of core outcome sets for research

Background

An annual update to a systematic review of core outcome sets (COS) for research ensures that the COMET database is up-to-date. The aims of this study were to: (i) identify COS that were published or indexed in 2019 and to describe the methodological approaches used in these studies; (ii) investigate whether children have been included as participants in published COS development studies, and which methods have been used to facilitate their participation; iii) update a previous exercise to identify COS relevant to the most burdensome global diseases and injuries.

Methods

MEDLINE and SCOPUS were searched to identify studies published or indexed between (and inclusive of) January 2019 and December 2019. Automated screening methods were used to rank the citations in order of relevance; the top 25% in ranked priority order were screened for eligibility. COS were assessed against each of the Core Outcome Set-STAndards for Development (COS-STAD). A search of the COMET database was undertaken to identify COS relevant to the 25 leading causes of disease burden.

Results

Thirty-three studies, describing the development of 37 COS, were included in this update. These studies have been added to the COMET database, which now contains 370 published (1981–2019) COS studies for clinical research. Six (18%) of the 33 studies in this update were deemed to have met all of the minimum standards for COS development (range = 4 to 12 criteria, median = 9 criteria). Of the 370 COS studies published to date, 82 COS have been developed for paediatric health conditions and children would have been eligible to participate in 68/82 of these studies. Eleven of these 68 (16%) COS studies have included children as participants within the development process, most commonly through participation in Delphi surveys. Relevant COS were identified for 22/25 leading causes of global disease burden.

Conclusion

There has been a demonstrated increase in COS developed for both research and routine practice, and consistently high inclusion of patient participants. COS developed for paediatric conditions need to further incorporate the perspectives of children, alongside parents and other adults, and adopt research methods fit for this purpose. COS developers should consider the gaps identified in this update as priorities for COS development.

Trends and Challenges of Wearable Multimodal Technologies for Stroke Risk Prediction

We review in this paper the wearable-based technologies intended for real-time monitoring of stroke-related physiological parameters. These measurements are undertaken to prevent death and disability due to stroke. We compare the various characteristics, such as weight, accessibility, frequency of use, data continuity, and response time of these wearables. It was found that the most user-friendly wearables can have limitations in reporting high-precision prediction outcomes. Therefore, we report also the trend of integrating these wearables into the internet of things (IoT) and combining electronic health records (EHRs) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to establish a stroke risk prediction system. Due to different characteristics, such as accessibility, time, and spatial resolution of various wearable-based technologies, strategies of applying different types of wearables to maximize the efficacy of stroke risk prediction are also reported. In addition, based on the various applications of multimodal electroencephalography-functional near-infrared spectroscopy (EEG-fNIRS) on stroke patients, the perspective of using this technique to improve the prediction performance is elaborated. Expected prediction has to be dynamically delivered with high-precision outcomes. There is a need for stroke risk stratification and management to reduce the resulting social and economic burden.

Magnesium in Infectious Diseases in Older People

Reduced magnesium (Mg) intake is a frequent cause of deficiency with age together with reduced absorption, renal wasting, and polypharmacotherapy. Chronic Mg deficiency may result in increased oxidative stress and low-grade inflammation, which may be linked to several age-related diseases, including higher predisposition to infectious diseases. Mg might play a role in the immune response being a cofactor for immunoglobulin synthesis and other processes strictly associated with the function of T and B cells. Mg is necessary for the biosynthesis, transport, and activation of vitamin D, another key factor in the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. The regulation of cytosolic free Mg in immune cells involves Mg transport systems, such as the melastatin-like transient receptor potential 7 channel, the solute carrier family, and the magnesium transporter 1 (MAGT1). The functional importance of Mg transport in immunity was unknown until the description of the primary immunodeficiency XMEN (X-linked immunodeficiency with Mg defect, Epstein-Barr virus infection, and neoplasia) due to a genetic deficiency of MAGT1 characterized by chronic Epstein-Barr virus infection. This and other research reporting associations of Mg deficit with viral and bacterial infections indicate a possible role of Mg deficit in the recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its complications. In this review, we will discuss the importance of Mg for the immune system and for infectious diseases, including the recent pandemic of COVID-19.

Applying human-centered design to maximize acceptability, feasibility, and usability of mobile technology supervision in Kenya: a mixed methods pilot study protocol

BACKGROUND

Although research continues to support task-shifting as an effective model of delivering evidence-based practices (EBPs), little scholarship has focused how to scale up and sustain task-shifting in low- and middle-income countries, including how to sustainably supervise lay counselors. Ongoing supervision is critical to ensure EBPs are delivered with fidelity; however, the resources and expertise required to provide ongoing supervision may limit the potential to scale up and sustain task shifting. Opportunities may exist to leverage mobile technology to replace or supplement in-person supervision in low-resource contexts, but contextual variables, such as network connectivity and lay counselor preferences surrounding mobile technology, must be examined and considered when designing and implementing mobile technology supervision.

METHODS

This study builds from an existing randomized trial in Kenya, wherein teachers and community health volunteers have been trained to provide trauma-focused cognitive behavioral therapy as lay counselors. The study will use an iterative and mixed methods approach, with qualitative interviews and a Human-Centered Design (HCD) workshop informing a non-randomized pilot trial. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with lay counselors and supervisors to understand how mobile technology is currently being used for supervision and determine the barriers and facilitators to mobile technology supervision. Data from these interviews will inform an HCD workshop, where lay counselors and supervisors "re-design" supervision to most effectively leverage mobile technology. Workshop participants will also participate in focus groups to gather perceptions on the use of HCD techniques. The final outcome of the workshop will be a set of refined workflows, which will be tested in a mixed method, nonrandomized pilot with newly trained lay counselors and existing supervisors. The pilot trial will evaluate the acceptability, feasibility, and usability of mobile technology supervision through self-report questionnaires as well as perceptions of effectiveness through qualitative interviews with a subset of lay counselors and all supervisors.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide a launching point for future research on supervision and methods to engage stakeholders to design and tailor interventions and implementation supports to fit low-resourced contexts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The parent trial from which this study builds was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov on August 9, 2017 ( NCT03243396 ).

The risk and added values of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk enhancers on prediction of cardiovascular events: Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND

In 2013 American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association released a guideline on the management of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) including a composite of death from CVD, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke (hard CVD). This guideline recommended a risk score that was calculated using pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE). The guideline was updated in 2018/2019 and further risk discussion was suggested for deciding whether to continue or initiate statin therapy among non-diabetic individuals with ASCVD-PCE score ranged 5-20%. They recommended a risk discussion with considering risk enhancing factors (ASCVD-REFs) including family history of premature CVD, chronic kidney disease, triglycerides ≥ 175 mg/dl, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥ 160 mg/dl, metabolic syndrome (Mets), and for women premature menopause, and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). In the current study, we aimed to examine the predictability of recommended ASCVD-REFs on incident hard CVD in non-diabetic individuals with LDL-C 70-189 mg/dl, with ASCVD-PCE risk 5-20% during 10 and 15-year follow-up.

METHODS

Among a total of 3546 non-diabetic individuals aged 40-75 years, after excluding those with ASCVD-PCE score < 5% and ≥ 20% (n = 2342), 1204 individuals (women = 332) were included. The univariable and multivariable (further adjusted for ASCVD-PCE) Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the association of each potential ASCVD-REFs with hard CVD. Additionnaly, the role of different components of Mets and a history of gestational diabetes (GDM)/macrosomia was also examined. The predictive ability of each significant ASCVD-REFs, then was evaluated by the discrimination accuracy and risk reclassification index.

RESULTS

During the 10-year follow-up, 73 hard CVD events occurred. Although in univariable analysis, high blood pressure (BP) component of Mets, GDM/macrosomia, and HDP remained as significant ASCVD-REFs, in the multivariable analysis, only the history of HDP (5.35 (1.22-23.38)) and GDM/macrosomia (3.18 (1.05-9.65)) showed independent risks. During the 15-year follow-up, Mets (1.47 (1.05-2.06)) and its components of high waist circumference (1.40 (1.0-1.95)) and high BP (1.52 (1.07-2.15)) significantly increased the risk. These ASCVD-REFs did not improve discrimination or predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

In a decade follow-up, only conditions specific for women and in longer follow-up, the presence of Mets perse, and its components of high WC and high BP were shown as significant ASCVD-REFs.

Oral rimegepant for preventive treatment of migraine: a phase 2/3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Rimegepant is a calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor antagonist that has shown efficacy and safety in the acute treatment of migraine. We aimed to compare the efficacy of rimegepant with placebo for preventive treatment of migraine.

METHODS

We did a multicentre, phase 2/3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 92 sites in the USA. Adults with at least a 1-year history of migraine were recruited. After a 4-week observation period, eligible participants were randomised using an interactive web response system to oral rimegepant 75 mg or matching placebo every other day for 12 weeks (double-blind treatment phase). The primary efficacy endpoint was change from the 4-week observation period in the mean number of migraine days per month in the last 4 weeks of the double-blind treatment phase (weeks 9-12). Participants who received at least one dose of their assigned study medication and who had 14 days or more of data in the observation period and 14 days or more of data for at least one 4-week interval during the double-blind treatment phase were analysed for efficacy. Those who received at least one dose of study medication were analysed for safety. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03732638.

FINDINGS

Between Nov 14, 2018, and Aug 30, 2019, 1591 participants were recruited and assessed for eligibility, of whom 747 were randomly allocated either rimegepant (n=373) or placebo (n=374). 695 participants were included in the analysis for efficacy, of whom 348 were assigned rimegepant and 347 were allocated placebo. Rimegepant was superior to placebo on the primary endpoint of change in the mean number of migraine days per month during weeks 9-12. The change from the observation period in mean number of migraine days per month during weeks 9-12 was -4·3 days (95% CI -4·8 to -3·9) with rimegepant and -3·5 days (-4·0 to -3·0) with placebo (least squares mean difference -0·8 days, 95% CI -1·46 to -0·20; p=0·0099). 741 participants received study medication and were included in the safety analysis. 133 (36%) of 370 patients who received rimegepant reported an adverse event, compared with 133 (36%) of 371 who received placebo. Seven (2%) participants who received rimegepant and four (1%) who received placebo discontinued the study due to an adverse event; no patients died.

INTERPRETATION

Taken every other day, rimegepant was effective for preventive treatment of migraine. Tolerability was similar to that of placebo, and no unexpected or serious safety issues were noted.

FUNDING

Biohaven Pharmaceuticals.

The value of a consultant physiotherapist within a primary care musculoskeletal interface service: part of the spinal multidisciplinary team

Background/aims

The national low back pain pathway in the UK suggests practitioners managing patients with spinal pathology should be specifically trained to do so and have the ability to link with tertiary spinal services when required. The aim of this study was to ensure referrals through to a tertiary spinal surgical centre are appropriate and patients get the correct advice early in their management pathway.

Methods

A retrospective review of 700 cases were discussed at a spinal case-based discussion meeting in a primary care interface service, compared to services without this model. A convenience sample of cases were analysed with the consultant physiotherapist and those referred from other allied health professionals into the tertiary spinal surgical centre. Case-based team discussion took place before every referral into the tertiary spinal service, with spinal surgical discussion where required.

Results

Patients referred from other interface services were more likely to require further work-up such as investigations, or be discharged from clinic on their first attendance than those who had been through the case-based discussion.

Conclusions

A consultant physiotherapist working as part of the spinal team of a tertiary referral centre can help advanced practitioners with their clinical decision making to help prevent unnecessary referrals to spinal surgical services.

Early Exposure to High-Sucrose Diet Leads to Deteriorated Ovarian Health

BACKGROUND

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is correlated with disorders of the reproductive system, such as the polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). While consumption of a diet rich in carbohydrates is linked to the development of MetS, it is still unclear if this diet leads to ovarian dysfunction and PCOS.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the influence of a high-sucrose diet (HSD) on the ovarian milieu of Wistar rats and studied the correlation between high consumption of sugary drinks and the prevalence of PCOS in women.

METHODS

Wistar rats were given a standard laboratory diet (CTR, 10% sucrose, n = 8) or HSD (HSD, 25% sucrose, n = 8) from postnatal day 21 to 120. Animals were evaluated weekly to calculate food intake, feed efficiency and weight gain. Both onset of puberty and estrous cycle were monitored. Metabolic serum biochemistry, organ morphometry and ovarian histology were performed upon euthanasia. In parallel, a fixed-effects multiple linear regression analysis was performed using data from Brazilian states (459 state-year observations) to test the correlation between the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (surrogate for HSD intake) and the prevalence of PCOS (surrogate for ovarian dysfunction).

RESULTS

HSD animals showed increased adipose tissue accumulation, hyperglycaemia and insulin resistance when compared to CTR. Interestingly HSD rats also entered puberty earlier than CTR. Moreover, ovaries from HSD animals had an increased number of atretic antral follicles and cystic follicles, which were correlated with the hypertrophy of periovarian adipocytes. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the intake of sugary drinks and prevalence of PCOS in women of reproductive age.

CONCLUSIONS

HSD ingestion leads to ovarian dysfunction in rats and could be correlated with PCOS in women, suggesting these alterations could lead to public health issues. Therefore, we reinforce the deleterious impact of HSD to the ovarian system and suggest that the reduction of added sugars intake could be beneficial to ovarian health.

Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study

Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents.

What Is the Impact of Lockdowns on Dengue?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Societal lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to unprecedented disruption to daily life across the globe. A collateral effect of these lockdowns may be a change to transmission dynamics of a wide range of infectious diseases that are all highly dependent on rates of contact between humans. With timing, duration and intensity of lockdowns varying country-to-country, the wave of lockdowns in 2020 present a unique opportunity to observe how changes in human contact rates, disease control and surveillance affect dengue virus transmission in a global natural experiment. We explore the theoretical basis for the impact of lockdowns on dengue transmission and surveillance then summarise the current evidence base from country reports.

RECENT FINDINGS

We find considerable variation in the intensity of dengue epidemics reported so far in 2020 with some countries experiencing historic low levels of transmission while others are seeing record outbreaks. Despite many studies warning of the risks of lockdown for dengue transmission, few empirically quantify the impact and issues such as the specific timing of the lockdowns and multi-annual cycles of dengue are not accounted for. In the few studies where such issues have been accounted for, the impact of lockdowns on dengue appears to be limited.

SUMMARY

Studying the impact of lockdowns on dengue transmission is important both in how we deal with the immediate COVID-19 and dengue crisis, but also over the coming years in the post-pandemic recovery period. It is clear lockdowns have had very different impacts in different settings. Further analyses might ultimately allow this unique natural experiment to provide insights into how to better control dengue that will ultimately lead to better long-term control.

Relationships between prolonged physical and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, reduced physical activity and disability in activities of daily living among people with advanced respiratory disease

In people with advanced respiratory disease, we examined (i) the impact of COVID-19-related physical and social isolation on physical activity and (ii) relationships between time spent in isolation and disability in activities of daily living. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted in adults with advanced non-small cell lung cancer, chronic obstructive lung disease or interstitial lung disease. Measures included change in physical activity since physically and socially isolating (Likert scale) and disability (Barthel Index and Lawton-Brody IADL scale) or difficulty (World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule-2.0) in daily activities. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with disability in daily activities. 194/201 participants were isolating for a median [IQR] 5 [3-8]-month period, often leading to lower levels of physical activity at home (n = 94, 47%), and outside home (n = 129, 65%). 104 (52%) and 142 (71%) were not fully independent in basic and instrumental activities of daily living, respectively. 96% reported some degree of difficulty in undertaking daily activities. Prolonged physical and social isolation related to increased disability in basic (r = -0.28, p < 0.001) and instrumental (r = -0.24, p < 0.001) activities of daily living, and greater difficulty in daily activities (r = 0.22, p = 0.002). Each month spent in physical or social isolation was independently related to disability in basic activities of daily living (odds ratio [OR], 1.17 [95% CI: 1.03-1.33], p = 0.013). These findings suggest disability in daily activities is associated with prolonged physical or social isolation, which may present as difficulty in people who are fully independent. Post-isolation recovery and rehabilitation needs should be considered for all people deemed extremely clinically vulnerable.

Mood and Activity Measured Using Smartphones in Unipolar Depressive Disorder

Background: Smartphones comprise a promising tool for symptom monitoring in patients with unipolar depressive disorder (UD) collected as either patient-reportings or possibly as automatically generated smartphone data. However, only limited research has been conducted in clinical populations. We investigated the association between smartphone-collected monitoring data and validated psychiatric ratings and questionnaires in a well-characterized clinical sample of patients diagnosed with UD. Methods: Smartphone data, clinical ratings, and questionnaires from patients with UD were collected 6 months following discharge from psychiatric hospitalization as part of a randomized controlled study. Smartphone data were collected daily, and clinical ratings (i.e., Hamilton Depression Rating Scale 17-item) were conducted three times during the study. We investigated associations between (1) smartphone-based patient-reported mood and activity and clinical ratings and questionnaires; (2) automatically generated smartphone data resembling physical activity, social activity, and phone usage and clinical ratings; and (3) automatically generated smartphone data and same-day smartphone-based patient-reported mood and activity. Results: A total of 74 patients provided 11,368 days of smartphone data, 196 ratings, and 147 questionnaires. We found that: (1) patient-reported mood and activity were associated with clinical ratings and questionnaires (p < 0.001), so that higher symptom scores were associated with lower patient-reported mood and activity, (2) Out of 30 investigated associations on automatically generated data and clinical ratings of depression, only four showed statistical significance. Further, lower psychosocial functioning was associated with fewer daily steps (p = 0.036) and increased number of incoming (p = 0.032), outgoing (p = 0.015) and missed calls (p = 0.007), and longer phone calls (p = 0.012); (3) Out of 20 investigated associations between automatically generated data and daily patient-reported mood and activity, 12 showed statistical significance. For example, lower patient-reported activity was associated with fewer daily steps, shorter distance traveled, increased incoming and missed calls, and increased screen-time. Conclusion: Smartphone-based self-monitoring is feasible and associated with clinical ratings in UD. Some automatically generated data on behavior may reflect clinical features and psychosocial functioning, but these should be more clearly identified in future studies, potentially combining patient-reported and smartphone-generated data.

Development of Digitally Obtainable 10-Year Risk Scores for Depression and Anxiety in the General Population

The burden of depression and anxiety in the world is rising. Identification of individuals at increased risk of developing these conditions would help to target them for prevention and ultimately reduce the healthcare burden. We developed a 10-year predictive algorithm for depression and anxiety using the full cohort of over 400,000 UK Biobank (UKB) participants without pre-existing depression or anxiety using digitally obtainable information. From the initial 167 variables selected from UKB, processed into 429 features, iterative backward elimination using Cox proportional hazards model was performed to select predictors which account for the majority of its predictive capability. Baseline and reduced models were then trained for depression and anxiety using both Cox and DeepSurv, a deep neural network approach to survival analysis. The baseline Cox model achieved concordance of 0.7772 and 0.7720 on the validation dataset for depression and anxiety, respectively. For the DeepSurv model, respective concordance indices were 0.7810 and 0.7728. After feature selection, the depression model contained 39 predictors and the concordance index was 0.7769 for Cox and 0.7772 for DeepSurv. The reduced anxiety model, with 53 predictors, achieved concordance of 0.7699 for Cox and 0.7710 for DeepSurv. The final models showed good discrimination and calibration in the test datasets. We developed predictive risk scores with high discrimination for depression and anxiety using the UKB cohort, incorporating predictors which are easily obtainable via smartphone. If deployed in a digital solution, it would allow individuals to track their risk, as well as provide some pointers to how to decrease it through lifestyle changes.

The Friendship Bench as a brief psychological intervention with peer support in rural Zimbabwean women: a mixed methods pilot evaluation

BACKGROUND

There is a large treatment gap for common mental disorders in rural areas of low-income countries. We tested the Friendship Bench as a brief psychological intervention delivered by village health workers (VHWs) in rural Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Rural women identified with depression in a previous trial received weekly home-based problem-solving therapy from VHWs for 6 weeks, and joined a peer-support group. Depression was assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and Shona Symptom Questionnaire (SSQ). Acceptability was explored through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The proportion of women with depression pre- and post-intervention was compared using McNemar's test.

RESULTS

Ten VHWs delivered problem-solving therapy to 27 women of mean age 33 years; 25 completed six sessions. Women valued an established and trustful relationship with their VHW, which ensured confidentiality and prevented gossip, and reported finding individual problem-solving therapy beneficial. Peer-support meetings provided space to share problems, solutions and skills. The proportion of women with depression or suicidal ideation on the EPDS declined from 68% to 12% [difference 56% (95% confidence interval (CI) 27.0-85.0); p = 0.001], and the proportion scoring high (>7) on the SSQ declined from 52% to 4% [difference 48% (95% CI 24.4-71.6); p < 0.001] after the 6-week intervention.

CONCLUSION

VHW-delivered problem-solving therapy and peer-support was acceptable and showed promising results in this pilot evaluation, leading to quantitative and qualitative improvements in mental health among rural Zimbabwean women. Scale-up of the Friendship Bench in rural areas would help close the treatment gap for common mental disorders.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden and Trends of Breast Cancer From 1990 to 2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of breast cancer has been increasing globally. The epidemiology burden and trends need to be updated. This study aimed to update the burden and trends of breast cancer incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

METHODS

The data of incidences, deaths, DALYs, and age-standardized rates were extracted. Estimated annual percentage changes were used to quantify the trends of age-standardized rates. Besides, the population attributable fractions of the risk factors of breast cancer were also estimated.

RESULTS

Globally, the incidences of breast cancer increased to 2,002,354 in 2019. High social-development index (SDI) quintiles had the highest incidence cases with a declining trend in age-standardized incidence rate. In 2019, the global deaths and DALYs of breast cancer increased to 700,660 and 20,625,313, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rates and age-standardized DALY rates declined globally, especially in high and high-middle SDI quintiles. Besides, the trends varied from different regions and countries. The proportion of the patients in the 70+ years age group increased globally. Deaths of breast cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index increased globally, and high fasting plasma glucose was the greatest contributor to the global breast cancer deaths.

CONCLUSION

The burden of breast cancer in higher SDI quintiles had gone down while the burden was still on the rise in lower SDI quintiles. It is necessary to appeal to the public to decrease the exposure of the risk factors.

Social Inferences as Mediators of Wellbeing in Depression

BACKGROUND

Depression is an increasingly prevalent chronic mental health condition that involves a range of potentially negative implications, in the long term. Theory of Mind (ToM) serves to form and maintain social relationships, by accurately identifying thoughts and emotions in others. Defective ToM abilities have been noted in people with a history of clinical depression.

PURPOSE

To identify whether impairments of emotion recognition are correlated with a lower subjective feeling of wellbeing in people diagnosed with a chronic depressive illness.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a cross-sectional analysis of a recurrent depressive disorder (RDD, as per WHO ICD-10 nosology) cohort (n=57), the BECK depression scale and the "Reading the mind in the eyes" test were employed for the diagnosis of clinical symptoms, and for the evaluation of individual ToM skills, respectively. Wellbeing was quantified using the FANLCT scale.

RESULTS

The wellbeing of service-users decreased significantly, in correlation with their defective emotion recognition abilities. Additionally, a low capacity for the correct perception of emotions in other people appears to significantly influence the social relationships status, with scores of 14.00 (10.00-18.50) at low capacity vs 23.00 (17.58-24.75) at normal capacity (Mann-Whitney U-test, p < 0.001). Our study findings indicate that a normal ability for a correct recognition of emotions in others is significantly and strongly correlated with adequate social relationships (Spearman r = 0.757, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Wellbeing is significantly correlated with the individual ability for a correct recognition of emotions in others.

Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1-4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5-8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.

Nutritional Status and COVID-19 among Older Persons in Kerala, India

Background and Aims: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an unprecedented public health crisis globally irrespective of age. There is no doubt that the older population (above the age of 60) is the most vulnerable age category due to multiple co-morbidities, which often is not in their favour. Age category, types of co-morbidities and nutritional levels indeed play a pivotal role in determining mortality rates. This paper focuses on Kerala, a southern Indian state and how it maintained low mortality levels due to COVID-19 during the first wave despite being the state with the highest proportion of the older population. The present study argues although the state possessed a robust health system and had an active engagement of the public health sector with its citizens through local governments, it was the state's meticulous planning, innovative schemes centred around older persons such as reverse quarantine, the prevailing excellent nutritional status among its population and initiatives to ensure good nutrition through food security schemes like 'essential grocery kits' and 'community kitchens' that helped to develop the body's resistance to infection and thus played a significant role in flattening the curve for Kerala's older adult COVID-19 deaths effectively, thereby achieving a high recovery rate and low rates of fatality during the first wave of COVID-19 in Kerala. Methods: Pre-COVID-19 health conditions of older adults in Kerala were analysed through Kerala Ageing Survey (KAS) panel data and Longitudinal Ageing Survey in India (LASI) data. Percentage analysis, Logistic regression method and Cox hazard regression methods were used to analyse the effect of nutritional levels on health and mortality among older adults in Kerala. Publically available COVID-19 data from the Government of Kerala and the Government of India were used to analyse the COVID-19 death rates. In addition, changes in dietary patterns and other preventive measures taken to fight against COVID-19 were investigated through qualitative response. Result: The study found that nutritional status influences mortality and co-morbidities among older adults in Kerala in the pre-COVID situation. Furthermore, the study found that though nutritional indicators, that is, overweight or obese, significantly increases the risk of comorbid conditions among older adults, good nourishment reduces the risk of all-cause mortality. The study also found that Kerala's COVID-19 fatality was much lower when compared to India and developed nations like the US, UK and Italy. Even if Kerala is one of the highly COVID-19 affected states, the effective nutritional intervention by the Government of Kerala through its various schemes to build up the general immunity of the state's citizens, especially high-risk groups; thereby achieving low COVID fatality in the state.Conclusion: Based on Kerala's experience, nutritional factors influence the population in building up the body's resistance to infection against COVID-19. Even though the fatality rate is very low, obesity coupled with non-communicable diseases affects preventive measures of the state. There is an immediate and persuasive need to find new and more efficient clinical studies apart from socio-epidemiological studies, which could play a pivotal role in determining COVID-19 health outcomes.

Trends in Mortality Rates for Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias Over 30 Years in China

OBJECTIVE

This study examines trends in the mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

The data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and an age-period-cohort model was used for analysis.

RESULTS

The net drift was .152% (95% confidence interval [CI]: .069%, .235%) per year for men (P < .05) and .024% (95% CI: -.078%, .126%) per year for women. The local drift values were below 0 in both genders for people aged 45-54 years (P < .05), and above 0 for males aged 60-94 years and females aged 60-79 years (P < .05). In the same birth cohort, the risk of mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias exponentially increases with age for both genders.

CONCLUSION

More rapid and effective efforts are needed to mitigate the substantial impact of Alzheimer's and other dementias on the health of China's elderly.

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.

METHODS

Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents.

FINDINGS

We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction.

INTERPRETATION

Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.

Sex -Specific Differences in the Association Between Metabolic Syndrome and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Among a Low-Income Population in China: A Cross-Sectional Study

INTRODUCTION

Carotid atherosclerosis is a well-established biomarker associated with future cardiovascular disease and stroke. We explored the influence of sex on the relationship between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components with carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) among a low-income population in China, which has a high incidence of stroke.

METHODS

This population-based study recruited participants aged ≥45 years from rural areas of Tianjin, China between April 2014 and January 2015. Anthropometric characteristics and biochemical profiles were measured. CIMT was assessed using ultrasonography. Diagnosis of MetS and its components was made using the modified International Diabetes Federation criteria for the Asian population. A multivariate linear regression model was used to evaluate the effects of sex on the relationship between the presence of MetS and its components and CIMT.

RESULTS

A total of 3583 individuals (men, 41.4%; women, 58.6%) were included in the analyses. MetS was prevalent in 54.5% (men, 42.3%; women, 63.2%) of the participants. Mean CIMT was 0.57 ± 0.09 mm. In the multivariate analysis, for both sexes, CIMT increased significantly when MetS was present compared with when it was not (both P < 0.001). A common trend was observed in both sexes, in that CIMT increased as the number of MetS components increased, with β (95% confidence interval [CI]) = 0.021 (0.000, 0.042) for men and 0.014 (0.002, 0.026) for women (both P < 0.05). Of the five MetS components, elevated blood pressure was an independent risk factor for increased CIMT in both sexes (men: β = 0.013; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.023; P = 0.008; women: β = 0.024; 95% CI: 0.016, 0.033; P < 0.001). Moreover, abdominal obesity was also an independent risk factor for increased CIMT in men (β = 0.013; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.023; P = 0.008) but not in women.

CONCLUSION

The presence and number of components of MetS were associated with CIMT in both men and women. Sex differences were found in the impact of individual components of MetS on CIMT. Early identification and management of MetS according to sex-specific risk of MetS should be considered to reduce the prevalence and burden of carotid atherosclerosis in rural China, which has a high incidence of stroke, a known consequence of carotid atherosclerosis.

Anxiety and Depression in Patients With Physical Diseases and Associated Factors: A Large-Scale Field Survey in General Hospitals in China

Introduction: To investigate the characteristic of anxiety and depression among patients in general hospitals, and explore the degree of the clinical symptoms and correlated social economic factors. Methods: This is a cross-sectional survey of anxiety and depression in patients with physical diseases, who were suspected of depression and anxiety based on their clinical performance by their physicians and PHQ ≧ 8, from various clinical departments of 57 general hospitals in China. Data regarding demographic characteristics and clinical characteristics were collected. Social and psychological factors and the severity of anxiety or depression were collected through self-rating scales. Finally, we used multivariate logistic regression to identify the factors associated with anxiety and depression in patients with physical diseases. Results: A total of 2,105 (84.6%) valid and completed questionnaires were returned. The proportion of anxiety, depression, combined depression and anxiety, either anxiety or depression among the patients with physical diseases from all clinical departments was 63.3, 75.1, 57.1, and 81.2% respectively. Further regression analysis indicated that gender, monthly income, specific physical diseases, personality traits, social supports and life negative events were related factors of both anxiety and depression. Conclusions: Anxiety and depression were common in patients with physical diseases, with a high proportion of co-morbidity of anxiety and depression. Females, patients with cancer, poor social support and negative life events reported more severe anxiety and depression. The results may help to understand the present situation of anxiety and depression in general hospitals in china, and identify the patients with high risk of depression and anxiety.

Childhood Maltreatment Predicts Specific Types of Dysfunctional Attitudes in Participants With and Without Depression

Background: Studies have shown a strong association between childhood maltreatment (CM) and major depressive disorder (MDD). Dysfunctional attitudes (DAs) play a crucial role in the development of MDD. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether (1) DAs are associated with CM, (2) specific CM types predict specific types of DAs, and (3) higher childhood trauma counts (CTCs) predict more DAs. Methods: One hundred seventy-one MDD participants and 156 healthy controls (HCs) were enrolled for the study. CM was assessed retrospectively with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. DAs were evaluated using the Chinese version of the Dysfunctional Attitude Scale-Form A (C-DAS-A). A series of analyses, including multiple analyses of covariance and hierarchical regression analyses, were used in this study to examine the hypotheses. Results: The proportion of CM was 60.2% in the MDD group and 44.2% in the HC group. The 2 × 2 analysis of covariance results showed no interaction effect between CM and MDD on C-DAS-A total score. When the factor scores replaced the C-DAS-A total score, a similar trend was observed. Within the MDD group, emotional abuse (EA) predicted two forms of DAs: self-determination type and overall DAs; physical neglect (PN) was predictive of attraction and repulsion-type DAs. Higher childhood trauma counts significantly predicted more types of DAs in the MDD group. Conclusion: DAs are a trait feature of CM. EA and PN predict specific types of DAs in MDD patients. Higher CTCs predict more DAs in MDD patients.

Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI): a mixed-methods study on implementation, knowledge and resource availability in Malawi

BACKGROUND

The introduction of the WHO's Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) guidelines in the mid-1990s contributed to global reductions in under-five mortality. However, issues in quality of care have been reported. We aimed to determine resource availability and healthcare worker knowledge of IMCI guidelines in two districts in Malawi.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study, including health facility audits to record availability and functionality of essential IMCI equipment and availability of IMCI drugs, healthcare provider survey and focus group discussions (FGDs) with facility staff. The study was conducted between January and April 2019 in Mchinji (central region) and Zomba (southern region) districts. Quantitative data were described using proportions and χ² tests; linear regression was conducted to explore factors associated with IMCI knowledge. Qualitative data were analysed using a pragmatic framework approach. Qualitative and quantitative data were analysed and presented separately.

RESULTS

Forty-seven health facilities and 531 healthcare workers were included. Lumefantrine-Artemether and cotrimoxazole were the most available drugs (98% and 96%); while amoxicillin tablets and salbutamol nebuliser solution were the least available (28% and 36%). Respiratory rate timers were the least available piece of equipment, with only 8 (17%) facilities having a functional device. The mean IMCI knowledge score was 3.96 out of 10, and there was a statistically significant association between knowledge and having received refresher training (coeff: 0.42; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.82). Four themes were identified in the FGDs: IMCI implementation and practice, barriers to IMCI, benefits of IMCI and sustainability.

CONCLUSION

We found key gaps in IMCI implementation; however, these were not homogenous across facilities, suggesting opportunities to learn from locally adapted IMCI best practices. Improving on-going mentorship, training and supervision should be explored to improve quality of care, and programming which moves away from vertical financing with short-term support, to a more holistic approach with embedded sustainability may address the balance of resources for different conditions.

'The Devil's Company': A Grounded Theory Study on Aging, Loneliness and Social Change Among 'Older Adult Children' in Rural Indonesia

Introduction: As a consequence of rising life expectancies, many families are no longer made up of one, but two simultaneously aging generations. This elderly parent-older adult child (OAC) dyad has emerged as a newly overserved yet little explored demographic phenomenon. Studies on this intergenerational aging dyad and the possible ramifications of when caregivers are simultaneously aging with care-receivers are scarce, especially in low and middle-income countries. This study explored the process by which rural Indonesian OACs experience their own aging, thereby gaining insights into how this newly evolving reality impacts the traditional ways of old-age care provision. Methods: This study has a qualitative design and draws on eight focus group discussions with 48 community-dwelling OACs (23 men, 25 women; mean age 64 years) in four rural villages in the Yogyakarta Special Region, Indonesia. The theoretical framework was largely inspired by symbolic interactionism aided by the sensitizing concepts of social network deficits, interpersonal emotions, and the social construction of risks. Data were analyzed using Grounded Theory as outlined by Corbin and Strauss. Results: Respondents' accounts reflected four categories: 1) aging in a welt of chronic insecurity; 2) OACs: a generation "betwixt and between" expected demands and unmet expectations; 3) landscapes of loneliness; and 4) compromising against conventions. As depicted in a conceptual model, these categories interrelated with each other and were linked by a core category, "bargaining for a sense of security", which collectively summarized a process by which OACs' experienced their own course of aging. Conclusion: Our study provided insights into how and why loneliness emerged amidst the challenges of social and demographic transformations and how in response to this unconventional compromises were made, which affect both the networks of caretakers and the places of old-age care. It is doing so by including the perspectives of rural Indonesian OACs. The results showed how multiple intersecting negative experiences constrained the aging experiences of OACs and produced precarious aging trajectories. Our findings highlight the importance of old-age loneliness as an emerging public health and social problem by discussing how intrinsically this emotion was interwoven with social life.

Burden of Eating Disorders in China, 1990-2019: An Updated Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Eating disorders, including anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN), are complex mental disorders. A better understanding of the burden of eating disorders is essential for improving their management. Information about the burden of eating disorders at the national level in China remains unclear. Methods: This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The sex- and age-specific prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of eating disorders in China were estimated by systematically reviewing all available epidemiological data and inputting these data into a Bayesian meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.0). Trends in the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and DALYs due to AN and BN were assessed from 1990 to 2019. Results: The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and DALY rate per 100,000 population were estimated to be 13.22 (95% UI, 9.35-18.23), 38.08 (95% UI: 26.37-55.73), and 8.38 (95% UI, 4.87-13.35) for AN and 130.05 (95% UI, 84.02-187.13), 75.21 (95% UI, 48.52-105.97), and 16.16 (95% UI, 9.23-25.40) for BN, respectively, in 2019. The prevalence, incidence, and DALY rate of AN peaked at 15-19 years old. The prevalence and DALY rate of BN peaked at 30-34 years old. Females had a higher burden of AN and a lower burden of BN than males. The ASIR, ASPR, and DALY significantly increased by 1.3% (95% CI: 1.3-1.4%), 1.6% (95% CI, 1.5-1.6%), and 1.6% (95% CI, 1.5-1.7%) for AN and 1.4% (95% CI: 1.4-1.4%), 2.0% (95% CI, 2.0-2.1%), and 2.0% (95% CI, 2.0-2.1%) for BN, respectively, from 1990 to 2019 in China. In addition, the increments in all the age-standardized measures of BN were higher in males than in females. Conclusions: The burden of eating disorders in China showed unexpected patterns that varied by sex and age, with increasing trends of AN and BN from 1990 to 2019. More attention should be given to improving the burden of BN in males in China.

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.

Longitudinal associations between ambient air pollution and insulin sensitivity: results from the KORA cohort study

BACKGROUND

Impaired insulin sensitivity could be an intermediate step that links exposure to air pollution to the development of type 2 diabetes. However, longitudinal associations of air pollution with insulin sensitivity remain unclear. Our study investigated the associations of long-term air pollution exposure with the degree and rate of change of insulin sensitivity.

METHODS

In this longitudinal study, we analysed data from the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) cohort from Augsburg, Germany, which recruited participants aged 25-74 years in the survey between 1999 and 2001 (KORA S4), with two follow-up examinations in 2006-08 (KORA F4) and 2013-14 (KORA FF4). Serum concentrations of fasting insulin and glucose, and homoeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, a surrogate measure of insulin sensitivity) and β-cell function (HOMA-B, a surrogate marker for fasting insulin secretion) were assessed at up to three visits between 1999 and 2014. Annual average air pollutant concentrations at the residence were estimated by land-use regression models. We examined the associations of air pollution with repeatedly assessed biomarker levels using mixed-effects models, and we assessed the associations with the annual rate of change in biomarkers using quantile regression models.

FINDINGS

Among 9620 observations from 4261 participants in the KORA cohort, we included 6008 (62·5%) observations from 3297 (77·4%) participants in our analyses. Per IQR increment in annual average air pollutant concentrations, HOMA-IR significantly increased by 2·5% (95% CI 0·3 to 4·7) for coarse particulate matter, by 3·1% (0·9 to 5·3) for PM_2·5, by 3·6% (1·0 to 6·3) for PM_{2·5absorbance}, and by 3·2% (0·6 to 5·8) for nitrogen dioxide, and borderline significantly increased by 2·2% (-0·1 to 4·5) for ozone, whereas it did not significantly increase for the whole range of ultrafine particles. Similar positive associations in slightly smaller magnitude were observed for HOMA-B and fasting insulin levels. In addition, air pollutant concentrations were positively associated with the annual rate of change in HOMA-IR, HOMA-B, and fasting insulin. Neither the level nor the rate of change of fasting glucose were associated with air pollution exposure.

INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that long-term air pollution exposure could contribute to the development of insulin resistance, which is one of the key factors in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Incidence Tendency Analysis on Type 2 Diabetes in 4 Asian Countries — China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, 1990–2019

What is already known about this topic?

Roughly 80% of the global disease burden caused by diabetes comes from low-and-middle income countries, and 60% of diabetics are located in Asia; 6 of the top 10 countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes are in Asia.

What is added by this report?

Compared with 1990, the growth rate of the standardized incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in 2019 in China was significantly lower than that of the entire world, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand all had a negative growth rate in incidence. A great difference was found by the 5-year growth of the standardized incidence rate of type 2 diabetes from 1990 to 2019 in the 4 selected countries.

What are the implications for public health practices?

Compared with the measures taken for comprehensive prevention and control of risk factors in Singapore, there is still a lot of work that needs to be done in China, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Secular Trends in the Epidemiologic Patterns of Thyroid Cancer in China Over Three Decades: An Updated Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data

BACKGROUND

Thyroid cancer is the most common malignant endocrine disease worldwide. The changing epidemiologic pattern of thyroid cancer at the national level in China has remained unknown over the last three decades.

METHODS

Following the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, the age- and sex-specific incidence, mortality, and prevalence rates of thyroid cancer in China were analyzed. Trends in the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on incidence were estimated by an age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates significantly increased in both males and females, and the age-standardized mortality rate decreased in females but increased in males. Moreover, the increments in all the age-standardized measures of thyroid cancer in China were higher in males than in females. The age effect showed that those aged 40-44 years had the highest relative risk (RR) among females, and the RR increased with age among males. The incidence increased with time and began to substantially increase in 2009. The cohort effect showed that the incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of thyroid cancer in China showed unexpected patterns that varied by sex, age, and year. Notably, males had higher average annual percentage changes in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates than females. More attention should be given to improving the thyroid cancer burden in males in China.

Reflections on key methodological decisions in national burden of disease assessments

BACKGROUND

Summary measures of population health are increasingly used in different public health reporting systems for setting priorities for health care and social service delivery and planning. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are one of the most commonly used health gap summary measures in the field of public health and have become the key metric for quantifying burden of disease (BoD). BoD methodology is, however, complex and highly data demanding, requiring a substantial capacity to apply, which has led to major disparities across researchers and nations in their resources to perform themselves BoD studies and interpret the soundness of available estimates produced by the Global Burden of Disease Study.

METHODS

BoD researchers from the COST Action European Burden of Disease network reflect on the most important methodological choices to be made when estimating DALYs. The paper provides an overview of eleven methodological decisions and challenges drawing on the experiences of countries working with BoD methodology in their own national studies. Each of these steps are briefly described and, where appropriate, some examples are provided from different BoD studies across the world.

RESULTS

In this review article we have identified some of the key methodological choices and challenges that are important to understand when calculating BoD metrics. We have provided examples from different BoD studies that have developed their own strategies in data usage and implementation of statistical methods in the production of BoD estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

With the increase in national BoD studies developing their own strategies in data usage and implementation of statistical methods in the production of BoD estimates, there is a pressing need for equitable capacity building on the one hand, and harmonization of methods on the other hand. In response to these issues, several BoD networks have emerged in the European region that bring together expertise across different domains and professional backgrounds. An intensive exchange in the experience of the researchers in the different countries will enable the understanding of the methods and the interpretation of the results from the local authorities who can effectively integrate the BoD estimates in public health policies, intervention and prevention programs.

Intervertebral Disc and Adipokine Leptin-Loves Me, Loves Me Not

Leptin—the most famous adipose tissue-secreted hormone—in the human body is mostly observed in a negative connotation, as the hormone level increases with the accumulation of body fat. Nowadays, fatness is becoming another normal body shape. Fatness is burdened with numerous illnesses—including low back pain and degenerative disease of lumbar intervertebral disc (IVD). IVD degeneration and IVD inflammation are two indiscerptible phenomena. Irrespective of the underlying pathophysiological background (trauma, obesity, nutrient deficiency), the inflammation is crucial in triggering IVD degeneration. Leptin is usually depicted as a proinflammatory adipokine. Many studies aimed at explaining the role of leptin in IVD degeneration, though mostly in in vitro and on animal models, confirmed leptin’s “bad reputation”. However, several studies found that leptin might have protective role in IVD metabolism. This review examines the current literature on the metabolic role of different depots of adipose tissue, with focus on leptin, in pathogenesis of IVD degeneration.

Trends of stroke attributable to high sodium intake at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019: a population-based study

Objectives: High sodium intake is associated with a higher risk of stroke. However, global patterns and trends in the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake have not been systematically assessed.Methods: We used the numbers and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of the stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country, obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR of the disease burden attributable to high sodium intake between 1990 and 2019. We further calculated the contribution of changes in population growth, population aging, and mortality or DALYs to changes in total stroke deaths and DALYs.Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of stroke attributable to high sodium intake changed significantly, from a universal burden in Asia and Europe to one that mainly affected some countries in Asia and Oceania. This change was due to the combined effects of demographic changes and changes in mortality or DALY rates. For countries in Asia and Oceania, the effects of population aging and population growth outweighed the effects of declining mortality and DALY rates, resulting in an absolute increase in strokes attributable to high sodium intake.Conclusion: Although the age-standardized global stroke burden attributable to high sodium intake has declined from 1990 to 2019, the burdens in some Asia and Oceania countries, particularly China, remain high.

The challenges of metabolic disorders in Indonesia: focus on metabolic syndrome, prediabetes, and diabetes

[No abstract available]

Obstructive lung diseases and allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) is a disease frequently complicating asthma and cystic fibrosis. ABPA is increasingly recognized in other obstructive lung diseases (OLDs), including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and noncystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. Herein, we summarize the recent developments in ABPA complicating OLDs.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent research has described the clinical features and natural history of ABPA complicating asthma in children and the elderly. We have gained insights into the pathophysiology of ABPA, especially the role of eosinophil extracellular trap cell death and mucus plugs. The utility of recombinant fungal antigens in the diagnosis of ABPA has been established. Newer, more sensitive criteria for the diagnosis of ABPA have been proposed. Although ABPA is uncommon in COPD and noncystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, aspergillus sensitization is more common and is associated with a higher exacerbation rate.

SUMMARY

Several advances have occurred in the diagnosis and treatment of ABPA in recent years. However, there is an unmet need for research into the genetic predisposition, pathophysiology, and treatment of ABPA. Apart from asthma and cystic fibrosis, patients with other OLDs also require evaluation for Aspergillus sensitization and ABPA.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in China from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Vision loss is an important public health issue in China, but a detailed understanding of national and regional trends in its prevalence and causes, which could inform health policy, has not been available. This study aimed to assess the prevalence, causes, and regional distribution of vision impairment and blindness in China in 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used to estimate the prevalence of moderate and severe vision impairment and blindness in China and compare with other Group of 20 (G20) countries. We used GBD methodology to systematically analyse all available demographic and epidemiological data at the provincial level in China. We compared the age-standardised prevalences across provinces, and the changes in proportion of vision loss attributable to various eye diseases in 1990 and 2019. We used two different counterfactual scenarios with respect to population structure and age-specific prevalence to assess the contribution of population growth and ageing to trends in vision loss.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the age-standardised prevalence was 2·57% (uncertainty interval [UI] 2·28-2·86) for moderate vision impairment, 0·25% (0·22-0·29) for severe vision impairment, and 0·48% (0·43-0·54) for blindness in China, which were all below the global average, but the prevalence of moderate and severe vision impairment had increased more rapidly than in other G20 countries from 1990 to 2019. The prevalence of vision loss increased with age, and the main causes of vision loss varied across age groups. The leading causes of vision impairment in China were uncorrected refractive error, cataract, and macular degeneration in both 1990 and 2019 in the overall population. From 1990 to 2019, the number of people with moderate vision impairment increased by 133·67% (from 19·65 to 45·92 million), those with severe vision impairment increased by 147·14% (from 1·89 to 4·67 million), and those with blindness increased by 64·35% (from 5·29 to 8·69 million); in each case, 20·16% of the increase could be explained by population growth. The contributions to these changes by population ageing were 87·22% for moderate vision impairment, 116·06% for severe vision impairment, and 99·22% for blindness, and the contributions by age-specific prevalence were 26·29% for moderate vision impairment, 10·91% for severe vision impairment, and -55·04% for blindness. The prevalence and specific causes of vision loss differed across provinces.

INTERPRETATION

Although a comprehensive national policy to prevent blindness is in place, public awareness of visual health needs improving, and reducing the prevalence of moderate and severe vision impairment should be prioritised in future work.

FUNDING

China National Key Research and Development Programme and Beijing Municipal Special Funds for Medical Research on Public Welfare Development and Reform.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Polyamines serum levels in episodic and chronic migraine

Background: Previous studies focused on food as the trigger of a migraine attack did not consider polyamines as possible activators and sensitizers of the trigeminal-vascular system through their interaction with NMDA glutamate receptors. Therefore, this study aimed to assess serum levels of nine polyamines and to evaluate their role as possible triggers and crisis maintainers in episodic and chronic migraine patients. Materials and methods: The study included 50 patients with episodic migraine (EM), 50 patients with chronic migraine (CM) and 50 healthy controls (HC). Serum levels of nine polyamines have been determined by Liquid Chromatography tandem Mass Spectrometry. Specifically, agmatine, spermidine, spermine, putrescine, cadaverine, arginine, ornithine, citrulline and lysine levels were studied. Results: Agmatine serum levels resulted reduced in EC patients with respect to CM and HC. Compared to HC subjects, serum levels of spermine and spermidine were statistically significantly increased both in CM and EM patients. Conclusions: The authors suggest that alterations of polyamines levels might contribute to the understanding of migraine external activation and help to clarify the potential role of NMDA receptor polyamines site antagonists in migraine treatment.

Association study of hsa_circ_0001946, hsa-miR-7-5p and PARP1 in coronary atherosclerotic heart disease

BACKGROUND

Our previous work identified an aberrant expression of hsa_circ_0001946 in coronary atherosclerotic heart disease (CHD). Here we aimed to verify the role of hsa_circ_0001946 as a biomarker for CHD, and explore the clues of its downstream regulation.

METHODS

The hsa_circ_0001946 expression in CHD patients (n = 120) and controls (n = 120) were confirmed with qRT-PCR. CircBank and miRDB were used for target analysis in silico. Spearman correlation test was performed to infer potential interrelationships among the nucleic acid molecular biomarkers, and their predictive abilities were examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Hsa_circ_0001946 was validated to be significantly up-regulated in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of CHD patients, and revealed as an independent indicator of increased CHD risk (odds ratio: 2.364; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.765-3.165) after adjusting for confounding factors. Hsa-miR-7-5p was found to own the largest number of binding sites in has_circ_0001946 sequence, and among its targets predicted, the poly ADP-ribose polymerase 1 (PARP1) has been implicated in the pathophysiology of CHD. Spearman analysis indicated negative correlations of hsa-miR-7-5p with hsa_circ_0001946 and PARP1, respectively; while hsa_circ_0001946 was positively correlated with PARP1. The prediction accuracy of hsa_circ_0001946 in CHD was evaluated, showing an area under the ROC curve of 0.897 (95% CI: 0.791-0.961), which could further increase to 0.957 (95% CI: 0.870-0.992) upon a combination of hsa-miR-7-5p and PARP1.

CONCLUSION

The present work demonstrated the predictive power of hsa_circ_0001946, hsa-miR-7-5p and PARP1 as combined biomarkers for CHD, and suggests a regulatory axis they consisted might contribute to the CHD development.

Face mask exemptions, psychiatric patients, and COVID-19

It has been compulsory to wear face masks in all public spaces, both indoor and outdoor, since May 21, 2020 throughout Spain [1], a measure intended to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, there are some exceptions to this rule, including "… People for whom the use of a mask is inadvisable for duly justified health reasons, or who, due to their disability or dependency, present behavioural alterations that make its use unviable."